May 19, 2008

Preakness recap, Beyers, etc.

It wasn't two minutes after Big Brown completed his tour de force in Saturday's Preakness at Pimlico that his critics began talking:

"Sure, he looked awesome, but who'd he beat?"

Who has he beaten? 

That question surrounds Big Brown as much as his aura of invincibility, and it's one that's easily answered.  He's beaten everyone that's ever lined up to face him where it counts - in the starting gate.  We'll all admit that this Preakness, aside from the winner, wasn't the strongest in the hallowed history of the second jewel of racing's Triple Crown.  But his victory, a virtual carbon-copy of his Kentucky Derby romp, was accomplished with such ease, such power, and such professionalism that it's hard to question his quality.  It's also difficult to question his status as a deserving Triple Crown winner...if he is to pass the "Test of the Champion" over Big Sandy in three weeks time.  That quiz, of course, cannot be overcome with Cliffs Notes.  You either have the stamina to navigate the gutbusting 1 1/2 mile distance or you don't.  We've seen that long backstretch, and those wide, sweeping turns ruin the dreams of some top horses.  Smarty Jones, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Sunday Silence immediately come to mind.  So does Curlin, the current Horse of the World, who gave a valiant effort in last year's Belmont only to fall short to a gallant filly in Rags to Riches. 
Not only will Big Brown have to stretch his brilliant speed around twelve furlongs, but he'll tackle a legitimate - perhaps the most legitimate 3-year-old he's faced - challenger to his throne. 
Casino Drive, a three-quarter brother to Rags to Riches, and a half-brother to 2006 Belmont winner Jazil, certainly has the bloodlines to excel at the distance.  He also has a win over the Belmont surface as well as a one-point edge over Big Brown in the "best last Beyer" category.  Like Big Brown, he is undefeated, has good tactical speed, and is lightly-raced.  But after watching the Preakness, you have to think that Casino Drive, or any other 3-year-old for that matter, must bring his "A" game to overcome Big Brown.  Not only was Big Brown powerful in the Preakness, but he was kind, and easy for Kent Desormeaux to maneuver.  He broke well, but soon settled into a rhythmic beat while saving ground going into the first turn.  When Riley Tucker attempted to put Big Brown in a box on the backstretch, Desormeaux eased off the accelerator, and Big Brown responded by backing off the burgeoning speed duel.  Once Desormeaux got Big Brown in the clear, the race was virtually over.  The Derby winner cruised up to the leaders in hand, and when Desormeaux pushed the turbo button, the race was over in three powerful strides.  He changed leads on cue, and ran all the way through the wire despite being eased up in the final sixteenth of a mile.  It was an effortless performance.
This Sport of Kings has come under fire in recent weeks for being inhumane.  But if the PETA people took the time to put down their signs and actually watch the Preakness, they would have seen a wondrous sight that we, as fans of the great game, often take for granted.  They would have seen a Thoroughbred in all his glory, doing what he was bred to do, flying off the ground with each stride, and loving each and every moment of it.  They would have seen an athletic marvel.

Now, on to the Belmont, and an absolutely mouth-watering matchup.
 

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Posted by dan_illman May 19, 2008 9:21:10 PM
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May 16, 2008

Saturday stakes, Beyer adjustment, etc.

Here are some opinions for some of Saturday's stakes races:

Maryland Sprint (Race 3 - Pimlico)
I'm concerned about the lack of early foot in this race, but still landed on one-run closer Starforaday based on his impressive 'n2x' win at Belmont on May 1.  It was his first start of the year, and first for trainer Gary Contessa, and he just inhaled the leaders in the last eighth of a mile.  It's possible he regresses off that Beyer top so don't take much less than the 4-1 offered on the morning line.  Celtic Innis and Cognac Kisses both emerge from a local prep, and won't be facing the strongest Grade 3 field in the world.  The former didn't lift up his hooves in the Allen's Prospect, but that was his first start in almost a year.  Cognac Kisses, on the other hand, endured a terrible trip, and you could make a logical case that he was the best horse in the race.  He has good speed, and should be prominent when they turn for home.  Forest Park has packed it in during the stretch of his last three races.  He goes out for top connections, and should be a forward factor at the very least.  Suave Jazz hasn't finished off the board since a high-priced claimer at Saratoga...in 2006.  The remarkably consistent bay won his last two starts of 2007, but will have to deal with a layoff at a short price (9/5 ML).
Selections:  Starforaday, Celtic Innis, Cognac Kisses

Gallorette (Race 6):
Another race without much speed, and that may really aid Roshani's chances.  She figures to track stretch out sprinter Saint Pegasus in the early stages, and may inherit the lead turning for home.  She dug in gamely when only beaten a half-length in the Jenny Wiley, and goes out for the powerhouse tandem of John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher.  Stormy West finished ahead of the top pick when a rallying second in the Jenny Wiley behind win machine (and Steve T. arch-nemesis) Rutherienne.  I've always been a big fan of this filly, but may be at the mercy of moderate fractions.  Lady Digby chased champion Dreaming of Anna in vain two back at Tampa Bay, then won a ding-dong battle at Laurel in preparation for this run.  She also likes to come from off the pace, however, and has a tendency to hang just a bit. Valbenny looms the favorite based on her Grade 2 win in the Honeymoon at Hollywood last year as well as Grade 1-placings behind Rutherienne and Panty Raid.  She hasn't raced since September, though, and is another that likes to make one big run.  She's the horse to beat, but may not offer enough value (3/2 ML).
Selections:  Roshani, Stormy West

Hirsch Jacobs (Race 9)
Lantana Mob and Force Freeze, the 1-2 finishers in the Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn on April 6, will renew their rivalry in this spot, and both should be used in multi-race wagers.  I'll go with Force Freeze to turn the tables on Lantana Mob.  Force Freeze has good early speed, and although he may be tested by Indy Joe, he looks sharp enough to be in front in upper stretch.  Lantana Mob should get a quality setup if the speeds knock heads early, and will be running late.  Sheeler came from off the pace to win a Maryland-bred stakes prep on April 17, and is another that would appreciate hot splits.  Silver Edition got a confidence booster at Churchill in preparation for this, and may receive a good outside stalking trip for Mr. Lukas.

Dixie (Race 10)
I found this to be a tough race.  Yes, Shakis looks like the class of the race, and the Grade 2 winner will take a substantial drop after chasing Kip Deville and Einstein at Keeneland, but I've never been a huge fan of Shakis, and he'll be a short price.  I'll have to go deep in multi-wagers, and will use Stay Close, a Pimlico horse for course that has won three of his last four, Salinja, a tactical gelding that should be close to a moderate pace, and Ra Der Dean, the huge longshot pacesetter.  Distorted Reality is second choice on the line, and he received a nice prep in his 'n3x' win at Aqueduct.  He'll take on some decent older stakes horses in this spot, however, and I didn't like how he lugged in during the stretch drive of that Big A score.
Selections:  Stay Close, Salinja, Ra Der Dean

Distaff (Race 11)
To me, this was one of the toughest races of the weekend.  Bear Now will likely go favored based on her big Cotillion win last year at Philly Park, and the recent sprint prep at Woodbine should have her on her toes.  She likes to race near the front, though, and Peach Flambe may be hard-sent by Edgar Prado to deny Bear Now the lead.  If those two hook up, I'll go with stalker/closer types like Cash's Girl, and Buy the Barrel.  Cash's Girl will attempt to repeat the sprint to route pattern that resulted in her Wayward Lass score at Tampa three back.  She did receive a nice trip en route to her recent win at Delaware, and will take a step up in class, but she's sharp and will offer value.  Buy the Barrel is another one of those running Larry Jones fillies, and she's won two of her last three going this distance with powerful late charges.  She shows a pair of bullet works, and that eases fears of a significant regression off a Beyer top.  If the track remains wet, Buy the Barrel should thrive (2-3 on wet surfaces). Peach Flambe moved up significantly at Gulfstream over the winter, and can be dangerous under Edgar Prado if Bear Now eases off her early.  Altesse and Runway Rosie knocked heads in the Sweetzie Stakes at Aqueduct with Altesse getting the duke by a head.  This race looks a bit tougher.
Selections:  Cash's Girl, Peach Flambe, Buy the Barrel

Preakness (Race 12)
I'm not going to try and get cute.  Big Brown's Derby was one of the most visually impressive races I've seen in recent years.  He was four wide on both turns, and just accelerated by the field with the greatest of ease on the far turn.  He's returning on quick notice for the first time in his career, but he just looks to be too talented for these.  Look for Kent D. to keep him in the clear, and he should break this thing open on the turn.  Macho Again may be better-suited to late-running sprinter duties, but he turned back a quality foe in Kodiak Kowboy in the Derby Trial, and you can throw out his poor Lane's End race (he doesn't like synthetic surfaces at all).  He should save valuable ground going into the first turn, and patient Julien Leparoux will likely save something for the wire.  Tres Borrachos may end up on the front if Kent D. decides to be patient with Big Brown.  Although his lone win came on cushion track, he was okay in both the El Camino Real and Arkansas Derby on dirt.  He's worth inclusion in trifectas and superfectas at a big price.  I will try to beat both Gayego and Kentucky Bear in the exotics.  The former didn't like the dirt in his face in the Derby, and draws another terrible post position.  Plus, he's had to ship cross-country in back in only two weeks.  Kentucky Bear has talent, but he's also inexperienced, and he had trouble switching leads in the Blue Grass.  Yankee Bravo wouldn't be a surprise in the exotics, but he's by Yankee Gentleman, and this distance might be pushing it just a bit.
Selection:  Big Brown

Quick and Dirty Picks:
Shuvee:  Carriage Trail, Rite Moment, Wow Me Free
Will Rogers:  Red Sky Dubai,
Desert Stormer:  Overly Tempting, Dearest Trickski

More importantly, who do you like this weekend?  I'd like to know.

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Posted by dan_illman May 16, 2008 6:08:06 PM
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Friday stakes opinions, par times, etc

Let's take a look at Friday's stakes races at Pimlico:

Ms. Preakness (Race 8):
Palanka City and Passion look like the fillies to beat in the Ms. Preakness.  The former seeks her third straight win, and she rattled off a bullet five furlong workout nine days ago in preparation for this start.  She's sharp and, unlike her main competition, owns a win over dirt.  Plus, she chased some quality fillies at Oaklawn (Eight Belles, Rated Fiesty) this winter.  Passion is Grade 2-placed on dirt, but her wins have come on grass and polytrack.  Like Palanka City, Passion has good early speed, but may have to rate a tad with the speedy Beau's Valentine entered to her outside.  She showed speed in a good renewal of the Beaumont last time out, and should appreciate the class relief.  Hadavision's numbers are light, but she won her three-year-old debut from off the pace, and that may be the preferred running style in this heat.  She has some room for improvement, but this is the toughest group the former $30,000 claimer has faced to date. 
Selections:  Palanka City, Passion, Hadavision

Woodlawn: (Race 9)
I'll take a little shot with Hugo.  The son of Stormy Atlantic won over this course and trip in his three-year-old debut, and he earned stakes-placed honors last year against a decent turf runner in Why Tonto.  Hugo has good tactical speed, and may sit in a great spot behind probable pacesetters M J's Enchanteur, Prussian, and Midnite Communion.  At 15-1 on the morning line, I'll go with the local horse-for-course.  Hatta Fort is the obvious horse to beat.  The British Group 2 winner rallied well to just miss in the Lafayette over polytrack in his North American debut, should be sharper in his second start of the form cycle, returns to his best surface, and will likely receive a plus pace scenario.  The 4/5 morning line is unappetizing, however.  Prussian received a ton of hype after winning his first two starts on the grass, but he was very cold on the board before running a tiring tenth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.  It's possible that he was a bit short in his three-year-old debut in the Transylvania on polytrack, but he's been a need-the-lead sort thus far, and will face other speeds on Friday.   
Selections:  Hugo, Hatta Fort, Prussian

Pimlico Special (Race 10)
There are no Curlins in this historic renewal of the Pimlico Special, but it looks like a very competitive race.  Gottcha Gold showed a different dimension by rating just off the pace in the Grade 3 Skip Away Handicap, and jockey Chucky Lopez has the nice option of either gunning to the front, or sitting just off the leader with this speedy son of Coronado's Quest.  I'm guessing he goes right to the top, and Gottcha Gold has earned 105 or greater Beyer Speed Figures in his last four races on dirt.  Wanderin Boy may have needed his most recent start in the Alysheba at Churchill Downs although form analysts will note he won the 2007 Alysheba off a similar layoff.  He is a pure need-the-lead type, and by drawing outside Gottcha Gold, may not receive his preferred spot on the front end.  Grasshopper looked good splitting horses in the Mineshaft, then was a game pace battler when necked in the New Orleans Handicap.  He disappointed last time out in the Westchester at Belmont, but I think he's better around two turns, and should receive a kind pace setup here.  Ryan's for Real earned a big number going gate-to-wire in the Hartack Memorial at Hawthorne, but the track strongly catered to front-runners that day.  I don't think he's quick enough to grab the lead from either Gottcha Gold or Wanderin Boy, and may not be classy enough to hold off the closers.  Xchanger is an interesting longshot.  He made a premature midrace move on a deep and tiring rail in the Commonwealth at Keeneland, and should do better switching to Garrett Gomez for his second start of the form cycle.  Temporary Saint went wire-to-window in the Grade 3 Excelsior last time out, but draws poorly outside of the other speeds, and may have to sit off the pace while wide.  A.P. Arrow chased Curlin in vain in Dubai, but I wasn't impressed with his runner-up effort in a weak Donn Handicap two starts back.  He has good tactical speed, but I'll let him beat me if going off at anything close to his 5/2 morning line.
Selections:  Gottcha Gold, Wanderin Boy, Grasshopper

The Very One (Race 11)
Smart and Fancy looks too tough to ignore at this spot.  True, she hasn't run this year, but a repeat of most of her races on turf, synthetic, and dirt from 2007 would drown these.  She's won off layoffs in the past, and should be charging hard in the stretch.  Cat on a Cloud just missed in the Mamzelle at Churchill, and can improve with that race under her belt.  She is very fast out of the gate, but so is Akronism, All Giving and Bikini Atoll, and a prolonged duel may doom her win chances.  Bikini Atoll looks like the speed nearest the hedge, and she is a true five furlong specialist.  Her connections are winning at a very high rate, and she may offer some value in this spot if the favorite doesn't fire fresh.  Akronism got caught up in a pace duel on dirt last time out when run down by uncoupled entrymate Cash's Girl (entered on Saturday in the Allaire DuPont).  This is her turf debut, but she could be the speed of the speed.
Selections:  Smart and Fancy, Cat on a Cloud

Black-Eyed Susan (Race 12):
I'm going to give Highest Class a mulligan for her dull performance in the Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream on March 29.  She was steadied off heels on the first turn, and didn't seem comfortable racing down on the inside going into the far turn.  She lost considerable ground on that bend, but re-rallied to just miss the place.  There isn't a lot of speed to setup her late kick, but her race two back at Fair Grounds behind Indian Blessing and Proud Spell hinted at ability, and she'll be reunited with her regular rider, Robby Albarado.  Sweet Vendetta bled through Lasix when winning the Andover Way at Aqueduct last time out.  She's been much improved since trainer Gary Contessa added blinkers to her arsenal, and she draws a comfortable inside post.  She may offer some value here.  Shes All Eltish defeated the top pick in the Bonnie Miss despite being rank in the early stages.  She couldn't parlay a good trip into victory last time on grass, but was facing a quality filly in Ginger Brew that day.  She has good speed, and may sit a prime outside, stalking trip under Gomez.  Bsharpsonata is an admirably versatile filly, and she might not have cared for being on the lead in the Kentucky Oaks.  She'll get a target or two to attack with Maren's Meadow and Sherine drawn to her inside, but must offer more value than her 9/5 morning line for me to get involved.
Selection:  Highest Class

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Posted by dan_illman May 16, 2008 12:31:45 PM
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May 14, 2008

Devil's Bag, debut Beyers, angles, etc.

Let's take a trip back in time to 1984:

The Oakland Raiders whipped the Washington Redskins 38-9 to win Super Bowl XVIII.  Hulk Hogan pinned The Iron Sheik in Madison Square Garden to become the World Wrestling Federation Champion.  Terms of Endearment won Best Picture at the Academy Awards.  The Soviet Union boycotted the Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.  Ronald Reagan garners 59% of the popular vote in the United States presidential election. 

In racing, John Henry was named Best Male Grass Horse while France's All Along won Horse of the Year honors.  Still, it was a two-year-old colt named Devil's Bag that captured much of the media's attention. 

Let's relive Devil's Bag's championship year through the words of the legendary Joe Hirsch in his "1983 Racing in Review" column from the 1984 American Racing Manual:

"Not since the brief but brilliant 2-year-old season of Seattle Slew in 1976 has a young horse created as much interest in America as did Devil's Bag in 1983.  The Halo colt, purchased for $325,000 by Mr. and Mrs. James P. Mills of Middleburg Va., was undefeated in five starts, including victories in the Grade I Champagne Stakes and the Laurel Futurity.  By season's end, veteran horsemen were calling him an exceptional individual.
He won his five races by a combined margin of 27 lengths, and was particularly brilliant in the Champagne, which he won by six lengths, beating Dr. Carter at level weights.  He raced the mile in 1:34 1/5.  That's the fastest Champagne ever run, and a fifth of a second faster than the time recorded by Seattle Slew in winning the Champagne seven years ago.
Trainer Woody Stephens termed Devil's Bag the best horse he ever had in his barn, and jockey Eddie Maple said the colt was the best young horse he'd ever seen."

"Mrs. Mills, an expert horsewoman in her own right, first saw Devil's Bag on a trip to Windfields Farm in Maryland.  She had gone to Windfields to look at some broodmares.  They also showed her some of the yearlings in the field, and she took a liking to a bay colt by Halo out of Ballade by Herbager.
Upon returning home, she told her husband she thought she saw an exceptional prospect that afternoon, and urged him to be sure and bid on the colt when he went to the Keeneland sales.  Mr. and Mrs. Mills buy a few horses every year, as well as breeding a considerable amount of their stock.  When Mr. Mills went to Keeneland for the summer sales, he was able to purchase Devil's Bag for a relatively moderate sum by today's standards.
Devil's Bag, turned over to Stephens, did everything properly from the outset.  He showed brilliant speed in the morning, and well before his debut on August 20 at Saratoga, Stephens was aware that he had a very fine colt.  When he reached Saratoga, Stephens told intimates that Devil's Bag might be the best 2-year-old he'd ever trained.  By the time he left Saratoga, he was convinced this was true.
In that August 20 debut at the Spa, Devil's Bag led all the way and won very easily by seven and a half lengths, with Eddie Maple in the saddle.  He took command easily, then accelerated on the turn and drew out to win at his pleasure, racing the six furlongs in 1:10 3/5, excellent time for a young horse.  Stephens ran him back at Belmont Park on August 28 on a sloppy track.  Once again, Devil's Bag won very easily, this time by five and a quarter lengths, Jean Cruguet deputizing for Maple."

"On September 28, Devil's Bag made his third start, the Cowdin Stakes, a prep for the Champagne.  Once again, he led all the way and won by three lengths, with Maple reclaiming the mount. 
He was favored at 1-2 and had no trouble beating Dr. Carter on that occasion.  It was the 112th running of the Grade I Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park on October 15, however, which really brought Devil's Bag to national attention.  He took command at the outset, as always, led all the way, and won by six lengths at 3-10.
The Champagne Stakes was presented on the same program as the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  Many people found the Champagne to be every bit as interesting as the $500,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup because of the implications.  Devil's Bag was timed in fractions of :23 for the quarter, :46 1/5 for the half, 1:09 4/5 for the six furlongs and completed his brilliant mile in 1:34 1/5.
Devil's Bag made his final appearance of the season in the Grade I, $230,250 Laurel Futurity at Laurel Race Course on October 29.  Bet down to 1-20, he once again went to the front under Maple and drew off the win by five and a quarter lengths, going the mile and a sixteenth in 1:42 1/5.  Veteran observers were immensely impressed."

"Devil's Bag was to make his final start of the year in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on November 12.  However, several days before the race he came down with a bruised heel and Stephens decided to put him away for the rest of the year and point him for a 3-year-old campaign in Florida.
Devil's Bag, with five victories in five starts, earned $355,020.  When the Experimental Free Handicap was announced early in January, he was awarded topweight of 128 pounds, the highest weight for any 2-year-old in recent seasons."

Devil's Bag was syndicated for stud duty for $36 million following his pristine juvenile campaign, and he returned to form in his first start at three, winning the restricted Flamingo Prep at Hialeah by seventh lengths at 1-20 odds.  He was upset in the Flamingo, however, at 3-10 odds.  Devil's Bag was sent to the front by Maple, and dueled for the lead through a half in 46 2/5, and three-quarters in 1:09 3/5.  He tired and finished fourt behind Time for a Change. 
Stephens turned Devil's Bag back to a sprint, and the colt responded with a 15 length win at 1-10 in an allowance race at Keeneland.  A month later, Devil's Bag went gate-to-wire at 1-10 in the Derby Trial. 

Devil's Bag suffered a fractured knee during his three-year-old season, and he was retired after the Derby Trial with a lifetime record of 9 starts, 8 wins, and earnings of $445,850.  Devil's Bag stood at Claiborne Farm, and sired champion Devil His Due before passing away in 2005 at age 24.

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Posted by dan_illman May 14, 2008 6:20:59 PM
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May 13, 2008

'Cappers, Workout Analysis, Unbridled Heart, etc.

jlove -
Didn't Formal Gold roll in his first start with a huge Beyer? Someone help me out here!!!
Jeff

Formal Gold earned a 112 Beyer in his career debut at Monmouth on June 12, 1996.  He went on to become a multiple Grade 1 winner.  He was a brilliant, consistent, hard-knocking runner, and one of my favorites over the years.  Here are his lifetime past performances:

Download formal_gold.pdf


Van Savant,
Totally agree...on all fronts as  I recall the debut and the big scratch on BC day...but I still remain in awe of Ghostzapper...he is one of the best ive ever seen...if not the best...what was his first out beyer...not that great if I recall out on the west coast... cna think of a few horse lite the fuse being one of them who beyered over a hundy first out...another by the way who i love...dan if you find the time pps on lite the fuse would be awesome...
jlove


If the past performances are correct, Lite the Fuse won first-out against winners at Saratoga.  Impressive!

I'm working on jlove's question on top first-out Beyers.  Hopefully, I'll have the stats later this week.

Download lite_the_fuse.pdf

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Dan,
Unbridled's Heart looked AMAZING winning his debut.  $1,000,000 dollar Darley purchase, I'm amazed he payed 29 bucks on the win.  What was his Beyer??
Sam

Unbridled's Heart earned a HUGE 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his debut win going 1 1/16 miles at Belmont on Saturday.  Trained by Thomas Albertrani for Darley Stable, Unbridled's Heart was purchased for $1,000,000 at the 2006 Keeneland September yearling sale.  He is a gray colt by Unbridled's Song out of Grade 2 turf winner Wild Heart Dancing (by Farma Way).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Man From Wicklow.  It looks like he has a strong future, and is bred to handle grass as well.


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Dan,
Since you are the maiden czar... In the last race at Hollywood tomorrow (Sunday) is a filly (Bea's Cee) who ran a 1:09/4 6F work, probably fast enough to win this race. She has always had good works, her previous was a 1:11/4. 
There are also a bunch of fast working first timers in this field (Roberta's Bambina, Heaven Tonight, Distant Victory, Fine Feline and Red Tomatoes). And of course a Decarchy baby (one that sold for $140K).
So what do you do here? She is by Cee's Tizzy out of a Desert Wine sprinter. Obviously there are a lot of opportunities in this race. My gut says there will be too much money on her (she is 9/5 on the ML) and that she is a bet against. How do you approach first time starters that have run that fast a work?
Of course the Doctor is taking the Decarchy (Dawn Star Rising).
Steve T

I'm not really that interested in the actual time of the work.  Obviously, it's nice to see that 1:10 move instead of a 1:17, but those types of quick morning trials attract too much money.  I want to know how the horse did it (that's why workout reports are so important), and who he did it with.  I really think finding company workouts (through first-hand reports or matching on the work tab) is a good way to uncover live firsters. 

I couldn't find any workmate for Bea's Cee.  Here's what my good friend, Bruno De Julio (in my opinion, the premier clocker in the country), wrote in the Sunday's version of "Today's Racing Digest."

9th RACE
BEAS CEE 05/03 Hol/ft 6f 109.4h
We had this one in 34, 58.1 and 110 flat. Don't think Periban wanted
this fast work. The time tells the story.
04/24 Hol/ft 6f 111.4hg
In blinkers for Periban and validated good work from the gate last out
to work well, like a rocket here. Out of a routing mare that raced
around these parts for Aguirre, and went in 35.1, 58.3 and 111.3. Like
the connections but I think the secret is out.
04/17 Hol/ft 5f 101.1hg
Went off easily from the gate and rated nicely. Caught stride and finished
powerfully late in 49, 100.3 and out in 113.2. I am sure you udnerstand this
horse can run some by these comments, or do you need a grade? Curve or no curve?

Bruno made a good point about the last work being perhaps too fast.  Bea's Cee ran a good second, but was disqualified to third.
The winner, Red Tomatoes, showed a good workout on April 18 (4F - 47.80HG).  larryk mentioned that Martin Jones is live at Hollywood, and Jones also worked a horse named Comic  Club the same time out of the gate that morning.  If you searched for Comic Club in the National Simulcast Daily section on drf.com, you'd find that the juvenile Cal-bred colt won his maiden first out on May 1 with a 63 Beyer.  If Red Tomatoes could put up a 63, he'd probably be tough (he ran a 76). 
Bruno confirmed that the two Jones runners were workmates:

RED TOMATOES 05/03 Hol/ft 6f 114.4h
Worked in hand for Jones here and was not asked a drop by Corey Black.
04/18 Hol/ft 4f 47.4hg
Worked with two-year-old Comic Club and went in 25, 48.4 breezing and
out in 101.4. Both went well. Worked with a very good young horse. Not
asked a drop.
04/11 Hol/ft 5f 100.3hg
Worked with Two-year-old Comic Club and both went well in 36.1 for
the last three furlongs. Well within self.

So to recap, fast works are all well and good, but they attract too much money.  I like to look for company works, and horses that do their work easily.

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Posted by dan_illman May 13, 2008 10:31:55 PM
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May 12, 2008

Weekend thoughts, Beyers

Casino Drive added some international intrigue to this year's Triple Crown trail with a resounding win in the Peter Pan at Belmont on Saturday.  The mystery horse with the marvelous pedigree kicked up his heels in the paddock before stomping a mudhole in his opponents on the track.  Now, he didn't beat the best three-year-olds on the planet in the local prep for the Belmont Stakes, but considering it was only his second lifetime start, and that he missed some track time due to quarantine restrictions, the performance was a revelation.  After breaking a half-length slowly from the inside post, Casino Drive was soon in a good pace-tracking, ground-saving spot.  He bulled his way through from in between horses at the quarter-pole, and drew off from his rivals in upper stretch before being taken in hand for the last 100 yards.  He'll now attempt to become Better Than Honour's third straight foal to win the "Test of the Champion."
El Gato Malo became the latest California invader to thrive on (gasp) dirt with a good-looking win in the Lone Star Derby.  The Beyer figure came back a bit light, but "The Bad Cat" hasn't done much wrong in his career, and it will be interesting to see how the gelded son of El Corredor handles the 12 furlong distance of the Belmont.  Leonides, another California invader, kept on well for second in his two-turn debut while Samba Rooster once again faltered just a bit in the lane. 
Barcola will never be mistaken for Curlin, but give him an easy lead at Delaware, and watch the fireworks begin!  The 12th-place finisher in the Goldolphin Mile on Dubai World Cup evening registered his fifth career Beyer Speed Figure of 105 or greater with a gate-to-wire tally in the Brandywine Stakes.  Four of those triple-digit Beyers came at Delaware.
Although the sprint division took a hit with the recent retirement of the tough Greg's Gold, it's possible that the combination of Lucky Island and Street Boss will add some depth to the ranks.  The former is now a perfect 3-3 since Kiaran McLaughlin added Lasix to the arsenal while Street Boss broke the Hollywood Park track record with his 1:07.55 win in the Los Angeles Handicap on Saturday.
Champs Elysees failed as the overwhelming, odds-on favorite in the Jim Murray.  He may have made a premature move late on the backstretch of the 12 furlong test, but couldn't stave off the late charge of defending champion On the Acorn.  It was a bad loss for Champs Elysees, who was coming into the race off a game third in the Big 'Cap.

Continue reading "Weekend thoughts, Beyers" »

Posted by dan_illman May 12, 2008 9:01:32 PM
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May 9, 2008

Stakes opinions, sound sires?,

Let's take a look at some of Saturday's stakes races:

Bold Ruler Handicap (Race 8 - Belmont):
The FormBloggers will be out in force for this Grade 3 sprint as Steve V's Callmetony tackles Justin and Riley's Forefathers.  I'll use two in here for my multi-race wagers.  It's nice to see the veteran Callmetony make his first stakes appearance after 51 runs, and the gallant gelding looked good overcoming a speed-favoring track at Aqueduct on April 11.  He cruised up to the leaders while on the inside, had to wait for room at the quarter-pole, then quickly settled things when he saw daylight in upper stretch.  He's already won five times at Belmont, and will be reunited with Edgar Prado (4-6 lifetime aboard Callmetony) on Saturday.  He should get a solid pace to rally into, and is in career form.  Executive Fleet is a logical contender based on his recent triple-digit Beyers, and he gave the bionic Bustin Stones a tussle in the Grade 1 Carter on April 5.  He has the tactical speed to sit just off Man of Danger, but Executive Fleet did miss some time after the Carter, and his main goal may be the Met Mile later in the month.  Forefathers has loads of natural ability, but I'm starting to question whether he really wants it.  He's had good setups in three of his last four races, but couldn't muster the necessary response to reach the winner's circle.  He should receive a nice setup once more.  Lucky Island is perfect since Lasix was added to the arsenal by Kiaran McLaughlin two back.  The lightly-raced colt has upside, but may end up chasing quicker fractions than in his last race. 
Selections:  Callmetony, Executive Fleet

Peter Pan (Race 9 - Belmont):
The local prep for the Belmont Stakes has an international flavor with Japanese invaders Casino Drive and Spark Candle set to face Peruvian Derby winner Tomcito.  Casino Drive has a beautiful pedigree, and he aired in his career debut in Japan, but he may get overbet, and is giving up loads of experience.  I'll take Golden Spikes, who chased Recapturetheglory in vain in the Illinois Derby last time out.  The Illinois Derby looks like a fairly-productive race as Denis of Cork and Recapturetheglory returned to finish third and fifth respectively in the Kentucky Derby.  I think Golden Spikes will appreciate the switch to this one-turn route, and he has the speed to be a factor from the opening gun.  Mint Lane also has speed, but he may have to rate with Casino Drive, Spark Candle, and Golden Spikes in the field.  He couldn't stave off the promising New York-bred Icabad Crane in the Tesio last time out, but Mint Lane came to hand over the winter at Aqueduct, and his numbers look as good as any.  Plus, he'll be a solid price.  Cosmic, a regally-bred son of El Prado and Heavenly Prize, is still as green as grass, but he's starting to slowly figure the game out, and should receive a healthy pace to attack late.  If you want to talk about well-bred runners, then Casino Drive and Spark Candle certainly fit the bill.  The former is a half-brother to 2006 Belmont Stakes winner Jazil as well as a three-quarter brother to 2007 Belmont winner Rags to Riches.  He's the morning line favorite, however, and he only has the one race in Japan.  Spark Candle is by A.P. Indy out of the great Serena's Song, but his best running in Japan came on grass.  Tomcito makes the third start of the form cycle after failing as the favorite in the Lexington.  Perhaps he didn't handle the polytrack, and his third to Big Brown in the Florida Derby makes him a contender.  Ready's Echo showed off a big stretch kick in his career debut at Saratoga last year, and has shown similar late ability in both starts this year.  He'll be running late for Pletchazquez.
I'll go three deep in here, and hope I'm alive in my multi-races.
Selections:  Golden Spikes, Mint Lane, Cosmic

Lone Star Derby (Race 10 - Lone Star)
Samba Rooster is a rambunctious sort.  He races without a whip, and has been hard to handle in his last two races.  Bob Baffert adds blinkers, and his colt should be wheeling-and-dealing on the front end one more time on Saturday.  He hung in gamely despite setting fast fractions in the Lexington last time out, and gave the quality Harlem Rocker a real tussle two back at Gulfstream.  Texas Wildcatter made a premature midmove in the Gotham, and opened up a huge late lead only to be run over late by Visionaire.  He disappointed greatly in the Wood Memorial, but this seems like an easier spot, and he could work out a good stalking trip for Pletcher.  My Pal Charlie chased Pyro in the Louisiana Derby, then faltered late in the Arkansas Derby.  He's quick, but not Samba Rooster quick, and will likely attempt stalk-and-pounce tactics under Jamie Theriot.  He just paired up Beyer tops, and may be ready for another forward move.  El Gato Malo enjoyed a beautiful trip to win the Grade 3 San Rafael three back, then was the beaten favorite in his last two races at Santa Anita.  He switches to Rafael Bejarano, adds blinkers, and may be more aggressive in this spot.  He has talent, but I'm not sure I want a short price.  Leonides makes his first start around two turns, but the lightly-raced colt has run some nice races this year.  He may be in closest attendance to Samba Rooster in the early going.  I'm going three deep in multi-races.
Selections:  Samba Rooster, Texas Wildcatter, My Pal Charlie

Jim Murray Handicap (Race 3 - Hollywood)
Champs Elysees is going to be very tough to beat.  He closed like a fiend in the Big 'Cap after being forced to angle to the inside in midstretch, and the stretchout to 12 furlongs should be just what the doctor ordered.  Expect him to be closer to the pace on Saturday, and his late kick should be tough to stop.  I'll use Boule d'Or as a 'B' on my multi-race tickets.  The Irish-bred had lost 29 in a row dating back to February 17, 2005 at Nad al Sheba before being claimed by Jeff Mullins.  For Mullins, he's two-for-two, and he blitzed the field in the San Luis Rey in gate-to-wire fashion.  He'll try similar tactics here, and if Champs Elysees doesn't come to play, Boule d'Or may be the most likely upsetter. 
Selections:  Champs Elysses, Boule d'Or

Senorita Stakes (Race 7 - Hollywood)
Tough, tough race.  I'll go three deep in here leading things off with Sweeter Still.  The winner of the China Doll Stakes two back at Santa Anita, she just missed in the Providencia last time out, and may work out a nice trip tracking probable pacesetter Lovely Isle.  Sweeter Still didn't run well over this course last year in the Miesque, but she was still a maiden that day, and is a much-improved filly right now.  Divine Legacy chased Golden Doc A and Ariege on cushion track earlier in the year, and she worked a bullet five furlongs on the weeds on April 24 in preparation for her grass debut.  Here's hoping she moves forward on the grass with a strong late surge.  Decorator is a neck away from being perfect in her short career, and she has yet to take a backward step on the Beyer scale.  Didn't like how she lugged in last time out, but she has some speed, a beautiful pedigree, and could be right there when they turn for home.  I can't toss her.
Selections:  Sweeter Still, Divine Legacy, Decorator

Los Angeles Handicap (Race 9 - Hollywood)
There is a lot of speed in this race so I'll look at three closers that can pick up the pieces.  Street Boss earned a big fig at Santa Anita, and although this will be his first start in stakes company, trainer Bruce Headley is having a tremendous meet, and the bullet work on April 30 allays fears of a bounce.  Doppio is so consistent that I'm going to throw his non-effort in the Commonwealth at Keeneland right out.  He's back home in Southern California, and looked good winning an optional claimer two back.  Bonfante has won on both dirt and turf this year, and he just missed in the Cal Cup sprint on cushion track in 2007.  He's another that should get a nice setup as High Standards, Peace Chant, Sailors Sunset, Bilo, and Barber scrimmage to the front.  I'll go three deep in multi-race wagers.
Selections:  Street Boss, Doppio, Bonfante

More importantly, who do you like this weekend?  I'd like to know.

Continue reading "Stakes opinions, sound sires?, " »

Posted by dan_illman May 9, 2008 3:28:31 PM
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May 8, 2008

Sound sires? Japanese imports, old turf warriors

1:01 a.m...Finally figured out the numbers so the sire list would make sense.  Here are the updated results excluding unraced foals of racing age.

I've been banging my head against the wall trying to figure out how a potential breeder would determine soundness when choosing a stallion. 

Here are some numbers to consider for some of the top stallions (courtesy of the Jockey Club):

Name - Runners/Foals win percentage (Winners/Foals percentage)
Dynaformer- 86% (62%)
Petionville - 85% (65%)

Cherokee Run - 84% (62%)
Yes It's True - 84% (60%)
Gulch - 84% (57%)
Salt Lake - 83% (65%)
Catienus - 83% (63%)
Forest Wildcat- 83% (60%)
Not For Love - 82% (62%)
More Than Ready (82%) (57%)
Songandaprayer - 82% (56%)
Stormin Fever- 82% (55%)
Put It Back - 81% (61%)
Smoke Glacken - 81% (60%)
Quiet American - 81% (59%)
Pulpit - 81% (52%)
Silver Deputy- 80% (62%)
Distorted Humor- 80% (59%)
Mr. Greeley - 80% (58%)
Victory Gallop- 80% (57%)

Smart Strike - 79% (56%)
Include - 79% (54%)
Langfuhr- 79% (54%)
Kingmambo - 79% (47%)
Mutakddim - 78% (62%)
Northern Afleet - 78% (58%)
City Zip  - 78% (57%)
Indian Charlie - 78% (56%)
Dixie Union - 78% (55%)
Grand Slam - 78% (54%)
Seeking the Gold - 78% (54%)
Trippi - 78% (54%)
Gone West - 78% (53%)
Touch Gold - 78% (52%)
Deputy Commander - 78% (49%)
El Prado - 77% (57%)
Gilded Time- 77% (57%)
Rahy - 77% (54%)
Swiss Yodeler - 77% (54%)
Elusive Quality - 77% (52%)
Lemon Drop Kid  - 77% (43%)
Lucky Lionel- 76% (62%)
Double Honor - 76% (59%)
Successful Appeal - 76% (59%)
Storm Cat- 76% (55%)
A.P. Indy - 76% (54%)
Malibu Moon - 76% (54%)
Stormy Atlantic - 76% (53%)
Bernstein - 76% (52%)
Royal Academy - 76% (51%)
Stephen Got Even- 76% (50%)
Tale of the Cat - 76% (50%)
Straight Man - 76% (48%)
War Chant - 76% (48%)
Fusaichi Pegasus - 76% (43%)
Outflanker - 75% (56%)
Broken Vow - 75% (53%)
Holy Bull - 75% (52%)
El Corredor - 75% (48%)

Montbrook - 74% (53%)
Unbridled's Song- 74% (52%)
Thunder Gulch- 74% (47%)
Mizzen Mast - 74% (41%)
Yonaguska - 73% (52%)
Doneraile Court - 73% (51%)
Giant's Causeway - 73% (41%)
Aptitude - 73% (40%)
Halo's Image - 72% (54%)
Honour and Glory - 72% (49%)
Siphon - 72% (47%)
Jump Start - 72% (44%)
Officer - 72% (42%)
Harlan's Holiday - 72% (37%)
Point Given - 71% (37%)
Cat Thief- 70% (51%)
Bertrando - 70% (49%)
Awesome Again - 70% (46%)
Orientate - 70% (43%)

Johannesburg - 69% (32%)
Forestry - 68% (44%)
Tiznow - 68% (40%)
Street Cry - 68% (33%)
In Excess - 67% (49%)
Benchmark- 67% (46%)
E Dubai - 63% (36%)
Proud Citizen - 62% (25%)

A rather unscientific study, to be sure.  We have to remember that the sire is only one part of the equation, and these numbers don't reflect "freak" injuries that occur to unfortunate foals in the first year of life as well as the soundness of the dam and her family tree.
Also, you can never tell with injuries.  Dynaformer is the leader by starter/foal percentage, but his son, Barbaro, tragically broke down in the Preakness.   
Let's take a closer look at the two sires with 85% or more starters from foals:
Dynaformer, at 17 hands tall, is one of the larger stallions.  He's a foal of 1985, has no Mr. Prospector or Northern Dancer blood in his pedigree, and never raced with Lasix.
Petionville was a bit of a surprise to me.  He stands 15.3 hands, and is a son of Seeking the Gold (by Mr. Prospector.  Petionville is inbred 3 x 5 to Raise a Native, 3 x 4 to Buckpasser, and 5 x5 to Nasrullah.  He is free of Northern Dancer blood, and raced with Lasix in every one of his 15 starts.
Obviously, more studies need to be conducted, but a major criticism of the current generation of bloodstock is that they are somewhat tainted by the usage of raceday medication. 

Continue reading "Sound sires? Japanese imports, old turf warriors" »

Posted by dan_illman May 8, 2008 5:07:09 PM
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May 7, 2008

Manila, Derby angles, etc.

Let's take a trip back in time to 1986. 

The Chicago Bears whipped the New England Patriots 46-10 to win the Super Bowl.  Geraldo Rivera opened Al Capone's "Secret Vault" to find a single bottle of moonshine.  The Chernobyl nuclear plant exploded in the Ukraine, and the Space Shuttle Challenger disintegrated just after launch.  Roger Clemens struck out 20 batters in a single game, but his Boston Red Sox were upset by the New York Mets in the World Series.  Mike Tyson knocked out Trevor Berbick to begin his run of dominance in the heavyweight division. 

In thoroughbred racing, Manila earned championship honors as the top grass horse of 1986.  Let's learn more about Manila's season through the words of the legendary Joe Hirsch in his "1986 Racing in Review" column from the 1987 American Racing Manual:

"...There was no question about the grass course championship among males.  Manila, with eight victories in 10 starts and two seconds in 1986, earned $1,814,729 and was an easy choice.  The 3-year-old Lyphard colt capped a magnificent season with a victory over older horses in the $2,000,000 Breeders' Cup Turf at Santa Anita.  Ridden in many of his major victories by Jose Santos, he came off the pace in the stretch, was forced to make a right-handed turn in midstretch, but still got up to score by a neck over the outstanding Irish import, Theatrical, while Europe's Horse of the Year, Dancing Brave, was unplaced.  Estrapade, the great grass mare who beat the colts in the Arlington Million, finished third."

"A maiden in three starts during 1985, Manila scored his first victory in his 1986 debut at Hialeah on March 18, winning on the dirt by eight lengths.  Bred by E. M. Cojuangco Jr. of the Philippines and subsequently sold at private treaty to Bradley (Mike) Shannon of Lexington, Ky., Manila made his turf debut at Keeneland on April 9 and won by more than seven lengths."

"At that point he was still under consideration for the spring classics, but finished second to Autobot in the Forerunner at Keeneland and was not given a chance in the subsequent Blue Grass.  Had he run in the Blue Grass and done well, he'd have gone on to the Derby. 
Instead, he ran in the Saranac Mile on the Belmont turf course in Mid-May and ran well to finish second to Glow (by Northern Dancer). 
On a quick trip to  California, he won the Cinema Handicap at Hollywood on June 7, defeating California Derby winner Vernon Castle.  Returning to Belmont Park, Manila beat Glow in the Lexington Handicap on July 12 and then scored a signal victory against older horses in the prestigious Grade I feature, the United Nations Handicap at Atlantic City on August 9.  Lieutenant's Lark, who was to upset the Washington D. C. International at Laurel in November, finished third.
Manila won the Ballantine's Scotch Classic at the Meadowlands on September 5, beat an international field in the Turf Classic at Belmont on September 20, then was freshened and pointed for the Breeders' Cup Turf, which set the seal on an outstanding season."

Here is a clip of the 1986 Turf Classic (courtesy of youtube):

http://youtube.com/watch?v=jn-z84-LaPI

Here is a clip of the 1986 Breeders' Cup Turf (courtesy of youtube)

http://youtube.com/watch?v=49488AEm9uo

Manila returned to the races as a four-year-old for trainer LeRoy Jolley, and scored in his seasonal debut in the Elkhorn at Keeneland on April 14.  He then won the Early Times Turf Classic  at Churchill Downs on May 1, and then took the Grade 1 United Nations Handicap for the second straight year on July 15.  He tasted defeat - by three-quarters of a length - at the hooves of Talakeno in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch at Saratoga before finishing his career with a sharp score in the Arlington Million on September 6.

Manila retired with a record of 18 starts, 12 wins, five seconds, and earnings of $2,692,799.  The son of Lyphard - Dona Ysidra, by Le Fabuleux will be inducted into the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame in Saratoga Springs, NY later this summer.

Continue reading "Manila, Derby angles, etc." »

Posted by dan_illman May 7, 2008 5:26:15 PM
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May 5, 2008

Derby recap, Beyers, 'cappers

Five lengths separated jubilation and heartbreak at Churchill Downs on Saturday.  The winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby, Big Brown, gave one of the more impressive performances in recent years as he dominated his opponents with a quick burst of speed on the far turn.  Once he made the front, the race was all over but the shouting, and there was no three-year-old on the planet that was catching him.  Not only did he soundly defeat his competition, but he destroyed several myths surrounding the almost-mystical nature of handicapping the Derby.  Big Brown became the first Derby winner since 1915 to win the race off only three lifetime starts.  He was the first horse in 79 years to win from post 20.  Simply put, when the best horse works out a trip, the Derby is like any other horse race.  The best horse wins.  What made his race even more impressive was that Big Brown's trip wasn't fluff and candy.  He was four wide for most of the race and still thrashed his rivals with breathtaking ease.  He has already scared off most, if not all, of his Derby rivals for the Preakness, and he'll be a heavy favorite to duplicate his race at Old Hilltop. 
Five lengths behind the winner, the heroic Eight Belles gallantly ran on for second.  Her effort was to be the crowning achievement for her underrated trainer, Larry Jones, and her 20-year-old jockey, Gabriel Saez.  Jones, the trainer of 2007 Derby runner-up Hard Spun, had just won Friday's Kentucky Oaks with Saez and Proud Spell, and Eight Belles' wonderful race would have capped off a tremendously successful weekend under the historic Twin Spires.  But tragedy struck only a few strides after the wire as Eight Belles lay prone on the track, a victim of two broken ankles.  It's easy to point fingers and assign blame  when brave equine warriors fall, but there looks to be no one at fault here.  Jones sent out the dominant runner in the three-year-old filly division, and Eight Belles bravely crushed 18 of the top three-year-old males in training.  To say she didn't belong in the race because of her sex is utter nonsense.  She showed the indomitable spirit, will, and class that we all admire in a thoroughbred racehorse.  To rail against the sport, or to besmirch Jones and Saez, is to sully the memory of her courageous run.  It's plain wrong. 

***
Someone mockingly inquired about the status of the "synthetic" runners on Derby day.  Lenawee ($34.60, last race Keeneland), Cherokee Artist ($9.40, Keeneland), Elite Squadron ($10.80, Keeneland), Intangaroo ($30, Santa Anita), and Pious Ashley ($4.40, Keeneland) all took their bows in the Winner's Circle at Churchill on Saturday...First Defence made his four-year-old debut a winning one, and the King's Bishop runner-up may be a force at sprint and intermediate distances this year for Bobby Frankel...The Churchill turf course favored speed horses over the weekend, and Bayou Lassie used her post position edge to her advantage over the quick Dreaming of Anna.  Reverse the posts, and the outcome may have been different...Linda Rice is amazing in turf sprints, and she sent out two stakes-winners in Dicey D J and Mohegan Sky...Western Canada saw the return of two excellent stakes horses as True Metropolitan and Dancing Allstar proved popular winners...DRF's Steve Andersen is reporting that Greg's Gold has been retired because of a tendon injury...Unbeaten Magnificience worked six furlongs on Monday morning, and may be nearing a return to the races...Vosburgh winner Fabulous Strike recently returned to the work tab at Penn National.

***

One of the things being discussed on the PETA site is for them to form up and storm the track during the Preakness. Does anybody have a Clydesdale I could borrow? How much do you figure for the Ben Hur hub caps?
Better than Honour Goes for Three in a Row
The super dam Better than Honour will attempt to win the Belmont Stakes for the third straight year through her sons and daughters:
2006 - Jazil (Seeking the Gold x Better than Honour)
2007 - Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy x Better than Honour)
2008 - Casino Drive (Mineshaft x Better than Honour)
2009 - Man of Iron (Giants Causeway x Better than Honour)
If she pulls this off, move over Hasili and Toussaud there is another blue hen in the coop!
Dan,
Does she have a yearling?
Steve T

It the PETA folks want to try an "Artax" on Preakness Day, they'll be nursing more than wounded feelings.  I'm guessing that when they see the horses pounding down the track at full speed they'll get out of Dodge.

Better Than Honour has an unnamed yearling by Giant's Causeway. 

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Dan,
A couple of very quick times in Races 3 and 4 at Churchill today before the rains came.  Do you have the beyers for Silver Edition and the first time starter from the Borel barn that won the 4th?  I thought Silver Edition looked super and probably figures as a better horse IMO over 6 Furlongs and not these elongated sprints of 7 Furlongs or more.
Justin

Silver Edition, a son of Silver Deputy and Grade 3 winner Sincerely, earned a 99 Beyer in the third at Churchill on Oaks day.  Royal Prado earned a 98 Beyer for his debut win in the fourth. 

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A friend of mine went to the Derby and was supposed to place an exacta box bet on Big Brown, Eight Belle, and Pyro for me.  I don't have her cell phone, so I can't check IF or WHAT I won.  Can someone help me with what the payout would have been?
Question

The exacta paid $141.60 for each $2 invested.

***

Dan;
It is my assessment that E.T Baird did a nice job riding Recapturetheglory.  He had him perfectly positioned throughout the race. I really don't know anything about this Jockey, but he seemed to comport himself well in the televised interview I saw, and seemed to be a pretty solid individual.  Your thoughts?
Van Savant

I thought Recapturetheglory was an overlay at 49-1, ran a game race, and his connections should be very proud of his performance.  He was a handful in the post parade, and actually dumped Baird before the race.  During the running, he tried to move with Big Brown, and stuck his head in front with 2 1/2 furlongs to go, but when Big Brown kicked it into another gear, Recapturetheglory just couldn't go with him.  I think Baird did a nice job with the horse, and gave him every opportunity to win.

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...The rest of the world does without - amazingly Curlin could actually run without nothin' but feed and water, imagine that...
Steve T

Be careful, Steve T.  The last time I mentioned that one of our horses ran in Dubai without medication, I was criticized by one of our posters for being a naive fool. 

***

How good is Big Brown? We don't know yet, but as I posted last night, he is the only foal out of Boundry to win beyond 1 1/8 miles.
johnnyz

He's the first Boundary baby to win over nine furlongs at this level, but not the first of all time:

Download boundary_foals.pdf

Continue reading "Derby recap, Beyers, 'cappers" »

Posted by dan_illman May 5, 2008 4:37:44 PM
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