Jul 19, 2008

Getaway Day!

The sun won today's battle in its eternal war against the clouds, and the dense cover dissipated just in time for the opener.  FormBloggers were in full force at Del Mar this afternoon.  Travers Manley and Ed were back for another ten challenging races, and I had the pleasure of meeting Robert SD and Ivan where the "Turf Meets the Surf."  After huddling with the boys for the majority of the day, I feel that FormBlog has the ideas and willpower needed to sort out this crazy industry.  After a few hours, we'd figured out marketing campaigns, takeout issues, uniform medication rules, and just about everything else that's troubling the sport. 
Robert SD is a great guy, and a very good handicapper.  As with most of the FormBloggers I've met on my travels, he has the passion for the sport that binds racing fans together.  He is trying to get a position in the thoroughbred industry, and publishes his own handicapping opinions at www.equiedge.com.  Feel free to check it out.
Ivan was on fire this afternoon.  He was giving out winners left and right, and unlike me, was cashing tons of tickets.  He's yet another person I'm proud to have met on this trip, and is a true asset to our FormBlog community.   
A nice crowd came out to the track in search of sun, fun, and a potential top handicap horse in the San Diego Handicap, a member of the "Win and You're In" events for this fall's World Thoroughbred Championships.  While Well Armed now owns a berth in the starting gate for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile after his gate-to-wire score this afternoon, his trainer, Eoin Harty, may be thinking Classic.  Really, it all depends on what Curlin's connections decide to do with the defending Horse of the Year.

Tough card today.  Here's the recap:

Continue reading "Getaway Day!" »

Posted by dan_illman Jul 19, 2008 11:18:33 PM
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Jul 18, 2008

Del Mar Day 3

I can't think of a better way to start the weekend than a twilight Friday card at Del Mar followed by a free concert (tonight's performer is Gavin Rossdale, formerly the lead man in Bush, and now better known as Mr. Gwen Stefani). 
Instead of the usual 2 p.m. post time (Pacific, of course), the first race on Fridays is at 4 p.m., and two hours before the races, the soundsystem blared a few tunes across the track.  It's the right way to get into a party mood although "Loser" by Beck was an odd choice considering people were about to wager their hard-earned money on horses running in a circle. 
One of our posters wondered where the best seats are, and whether he (or she) should reserve them in advance.  While some seats are probably available on race day, you can't go wrong by reserving them, and my advice is to do just that. I'd also advise clubhouse seats instead of the grandstand.  Not only will you be closer to the finish line, but you'll also be closer to the big-screen television in the infield. 

I had plenty of time to kill before the races so I had options.  Did I:

a)  head over to the beach and catch some rays

b)  have a champagne brunch at a trendy San Diego eatery

c)  go sightseeing

d)  stay in my hotel room, and watch race replays on my laptop.

You really don't have to think twice about that, do you?

Before we go any further, it's time for the Illman Sunburn Report:

Day 1: 
Listened to g or g's advice, and put on sunblock.  Was surprised when I returned to the room with a Rudolph nose, and red cheeks.  Apparently, when you're applying sunblock, you shouldn't dab it on your face is if it was poison oak.

Day 2:
Drenched myself in sunblock.  The irony here is that sunblock is supposed to prevent burning, but if it gets in your eyes, it's hoooootttttt!

Day 3:
So far, so good, but now that I'm parting my hair down the middle, the top of my head is bearing the brunt of the agony.

Parked myself at my usual spot on the grandstand side of the walking ring, waited for FormBloggers, and got down to business.

Continue reading "Del Mar Day 3" »

Posted by dan_illman Jul 18, 2008 11:46:09 PM
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Jul 17, 2008

Del Mar Day 2

Even the cloudy days at Del Mar are delightful, and the people are very friendly.  I met two sweet ladies while waiting for the clubhouse gates to open.  One called me "cute," (I seem to do okay with gals between the ages of 65-90; the rest, eh) as she basically recited her life story.  At the end of our talk, she pulled me in close, gave me a kiss on the cheek, and whispered the handicapping secret we've all been searching for, but have never found.  Forget Beyers, pedigree, and sheets.

"Second letter...O."

Del Mar isn't the biggest facility in the world, but it makes the most of the available space.  The interior of the track is extremely simulcast-friendly with tons of televisions and tellers.  There are plenty of restrooms for the horseplayer that found himself drinking too many Dos Equis, and you can't throw a penny without hitting a food or drink stand. 
When entering through the grandstand gates, racegoers are entranced by an attractive fountain that dominates the area without being too unwieldy.  Here, a good-sized, but unobtrusive, stage is set up for Friday concerts (Gavin Rossdale tomorrow). 
Part of the grandstand doubles as an open-air restaurant, a clever idea considering the beautiful weather, and unobstructed view of the track.  Families are encouraged to take a tunnel under the racing surface to partake in food and fun in the infield. 
After the first race, I had the pleasure and privilege to spend time with longtime poster Ray Manley, and his son, Travers.  That's right, Ray is a huge racing fan.  He named his daughter Alyson after his favorite horse, Alydar.  Not only did both Manleys outhandicap me for the next several hours, but their knowledge of the game proved to be exceptional, their insights made perfect sense, and they were true gentlemen to boot.  Travers is planning on getting involved in the thoroughbred industry upon graduation from the University of Kentucky, and I'm sure he'll be a major asset to this business.
This is what FormBlog Across America is all about.  It's not about Dan Illman getting emasculated in front of the ladies while sunburnt to a crisp.  Sure, that's entertaining, but the point is building a sense of community with fellow racing fans that share the same passion and love for the sport that I have.   So far, every FormBlogger I've met has exceeded my lofty expectations.  I feel that I made two friends today, and that's more important than cashing a ticket.

Although the track seemed faster on Opening Day, I thought there was a slight closer's bias in play.  Let's see how Thursday's card played out:

Continue reading "Del Mar Day 2" »

Posted by dan_illman Jul 17, 2008 11:29:37 PM
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Jul 16, 2008

Opening Day - Del Mar

An eclectic group of racegoers congregated outside the clubhouse entrance at Del Mar.  Across the street from Bing Crosby Hall stood many, many women in fancy, fashionable, and/or outrageous hats.  One young lady wore a huge hat topped off with a mighty bouquet of flowers.  The hat was bigger than her entire body, and she needed both hands on the centerpiece to keep from losing her balance.  A large group of college kids, hoping for that "Preakness" experience, joined families interested in a delightful diversion from the everday hum-drum.  There were the horseplayers, filled with Daily Racing Forms in their hands, and dreams of a big score nestled in their minds.  Of course, they had their share of complaints.  For them, Opening Day is amateur hour.  Their cathedral is invaded by know-nothings and neer-do-wells, and most of them don't like it one bit.
Overall, it was a very festive atmosphere.  Two men, dressed as The Batman and The Joker, drove past the entrance in a homemade "Batmobile," complete with a stuffed horse's head in the backseat.  That Joker!  What a card!  Don't be alarmed, horse lovers.  The horse head later doubled as The Batman's Del Mar hat.   
All of these folks were taking part in the greatest sport of them all, an event that is cost-effective compared to other "major league" sports.  A clubhouse ticket only cost the racegoer twenty dollars (most days at most tracks, it's five bucks max).  Try to get that kind of value at Yankee Stadium.  Also, the racing fan gets nine chances to make their money back instead of watching some high-priced ballplayer strike out with the game, and the hopes of the people paying his salary, on the line.
Even your favorite Blog Author got in on the fun.  No, Steven Crist wasn't at Del Mar!  I was talking about me!  An unfortunate woman was stung by a bee while waiting on line, and ever the gallant gentleman, I found some ice for her wound.  The ensuing conversation went like this:

"Do you think the bee is dead?" she asked.

"Probably," I replied.

"If I have an allergic reaction, and pass out, will you give me CPR?"

"In a New York minute," I answered.

"See," she turned to her friend.  "I found a handsome one."  Returning her gaze to me, she continued, "My grandchildren think I'm frisky."

I'll be here all week, folks.

The weather at Del Mar, as always, is delightful, and a pet peeve is when a Southern Californian complains that the climate is "too boring."  What's boring about 75 degrees with a wonderful breeze, and nary a cloud in the sky?  That's not boring.  That's one less thing to worry about.

I parked myself on the clubhouse side of the paddock at the area where the horses leave the walking ring on their way to the track.  The paddock is no-frills when compared to Keeneland's spacious paddock-walking ring combination, but the ivy-lined saddling stalls were charming.  I was there at 11:30 a.m, and the crowd was getting big.  It got larger as the day wore on.  People were hanging off the rafters overlooking the paddock, and the line was five deep to get a look at the horses and riders. 
Immediately, I met five relatively recent FormBlog lurkers, and we discussed the day's card for the majority of the afternoon.  They are racing "newbies" so to speak, and were excited to learn about Exacta, Quinellas, Daily Doubles, and past performances. 
Then, Audrey, the backstretch horse masseuse, approached me.  She said that business was pretty bad right now.

"Most trainers don't believe in my preventive medicine techniques," she said.  "All they want is a quick fix." 

"What do you mean by 'preventive medicine?'" I asked. 

"Oh, you know, putting crystals on their halters, and such."

Okay.

Before the day's races, I got a look at the polytrack.  I didn't notice any new banking on the turns, or anything like that and, like everyone else, was interested how the track would play during the afternoon.

Continue reading "Opening Day - Del Mar" »

Posted by dan_illman Jul 16, 2008 10:38:46 PM
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Jul 15, 2008

Beyers, comments, landed in SoCal

Did anyone hear about what happened to Unbridled Belle in the paddock area?  Does anyone think that might have compromised her chances of winning?  Don't get me wrong...Hystericalady is a force to be reckoned with in the Distaff.  (I simply refuse to refer it as the "Ladies Classic.")  Any thoughts?
Maggie

I don't think anyone was beating Hystericalady at Delaware on Sunday no matter what, but Unbridled Belle's naughty pre-race behavior certainly didn't help her chances.  She just completely freaked out, reared up on her hind legs, and fell over.  As with Better Talk Now in the Man o'War, Unbridled Belle may have expended too much energy before she even got onto the track.  I'm a fan of Unbridled Belle.  She's a good filly when she's on her 'A' game, and I won't count her out of the Ladies' Classic mix, but she has to show better consistency.  I want to see her string two big races together.


Would like to hear thoughts on the Man O' War also.  Saw the chart and cant figure  out BTN. Closed from 10 back.  WTF,  cant say he ran out of ground, race was 1 3/8.  I know Inner course, connections won the race.  But I thought this race was all BTN.  Was worried about the firm goin,  a bit.
Primo

Better Talk Now didn't look like a happy camper in the saddling enclosure, and he may have run his race before he even set foot on the track.  He was throwing himself around in the paddock, and froze for a few seconds before the post parade.  Considering all of his pre-race antics, the old boy ran quite okay.

***

Hi Dan and FORMbloggers:
Dan I agree 100% with your assement of Curlin.  A few things struck me as odd.
(1)  WHY, WHY, WHY was Curlin back so far so early after stretching out from a 9f dirt race at CD to an 11f turf race yesterday?  Why was he not in the garden spot?
Tony Kelso

I'm guessing the poor start coupled with the fast first quarter hurt Curlin in terms of him not being able to get the position that Red Rocks did going into the opening bend.  No excuses after that, though.

***

Dan,
Has anyone talked to Barry Abrams? I would love to know what he has in the pipeline.
Steve T

I haven't spoken to him, but it's pretty safe to assume he'll have an assembly line of Unusual Heats ready to go.

***

Dan,
You didn't touch on arguably the best performace of the day: Indyanne's win in the Azalea.  What do you think of her performance and her future?
g or g

What's not to like? She's not only unbeaten, but she's absolutely perfect, having led from the pace call on in every start.  She was excellent on Saturday as she coasted to the front, fended off a pace challenger from her inside, and widened in the stretch.  Her last eighth was slow, but she ran very quickly in the opening quarter-mile.  She'll be tested against tougher next time, but I believe that she's got a good deal of quality.

***

Just a thought on the Delaware Oaks:
If Proud Spell is having a hard time, do you think that Pure Clan should go back to dirt and run in the Alabama?
Pure Clan clearly likes longer distances.  What a distinction it would be, to win at a 1 1/4 on both turf and dirt. 
Can any 3 year old filly beat Pure Clan at a 1 mile & a 1/4?
Jen


As it stands right now, Pure Clan will run in the Del Mar Oaks in Southern California, but she's so versatile that you can do anything with her.  I'd love to see her try 10 furlongs, but a filly like Music Note may have her number at that distance.

Continue reading "Beyers, comments, landed in SoCal" »

Posted by dan_illman Jul 15, 2008 9:32:06 PM
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Jul 13, 2008

Saturday thoughts, etc.

An announced crowd of 8,428 showed up at Belmont Park on Saturday to watch Curlin conquer the grass.  Many flocked to the paddock where bits and pieces of conversation could be overheard by a nosy eavesdropper:

"Can he do it?"

"I know he can do it."

"I hope he can do it."

"He should do it."

He didn't do it.  Curlin didn't break particularly well from his outside position, and then was completely outrun going into the first turn when David Cohen (Mission Approved) and John Velazquez (Sudan) apparently forgot that the Man o'War is contested over 1 3/8 miles.  Mission Approved and Sudan blistered the first quarter-mile in a suicidal 22.69, then engaged in a prolonged duel for the next six furlongs.  Meanwhile, Curlin was 15 lengths off the leaders after a half-mile, and four-and-a-half lengths behind 2006 Breeders' Cup Turf winner Red Rocks, who had settled into a wonderful position stalking the dueling and soon-to-be doomed leaders.  The pacesetters were understandably spent turning for home (although Sudan ran a gallant race to finish fourth), and Red Rocks inherited the lead with a quarter-pole charge.  Curlin tried to run him down from the outside, but it's never easy giving lengths to a quality horse with a candy trip, and Red Rocks held off Curlin's rally by a determined two lengths.  The argument could be made that if the trips of the top two finishers were reversed, then Curlin not only would have beaten Red Rocks, but would have kissed him on the head as he tucked him into bed.  That wasn't the case, however, and Curlin's record past 10 furlongs now stands at 0-2.  Perhaps 1 1/4 miles is his limit.  Perhaps he isn't the same horse on grass as he is on the dirt.  But "perhaps" doesn't pay the feed man, and Red Rocks was simply the better horse on this day.  Better Talk Now took two steps onto the track, froze for a few seconds, then took off from the post parade.  As usual, he lagged behind the pace, and his connections must have been licking their chops when the fractions were posted on the toteboard, but while Better Talk Now rallied for third, he never looked a winner. 
Now, where do we go from here?  Are Curlin's connections looking for a refund for their plane tickets to Paris?  Is the Arc really out of the question?  Red Rocks was hammered by Soldier of Fortune, arguably the Arc favorite, in their most recent confrontation in Europe.  If Curlin couldn't beat Red Rocks, what makes ya think he'll beat Europe's best on their home turf at their game?  Then again, we've seen Curlin come back from losses in the past (Derby, Haskell) to do some pretty amazing things.  It's hard to ever count out the 2007 Horse of the Year.  From a bettor's standpoint, I'd be likely to play against Red Rocks next time as he'll never get a better setup than the one he received in the Man o'War.  I'd also give Sudan a look if he drops in class, and projects as the main speed. 

The homework for FormBloggers is this:

If you had to map out the rest of Curlin's campaign, what races would you target?

I'm not sure I know what to think of Colonel John's race in the Swaps.  It looked like he was going to go right on by the leaders entering the far turn, but he seemed to hang in the final eighth of a mile.  While he may have needed the race - his first since the Kentucky Derby - it didn't look like this was a colt that is ready for prime time.

Benny the Bull is prime time, and he was arguably the most impressive stakes-winner on Saturday.  He angled out sharply on the far turn while in the midst of a strong rally, and then blew past the leaders in the lane.  He's the measuring stick in the sprint division for sure.

Mistical Plan is back, and she likes to sprint.  She was very impressive winning the Grade 1 Princess Rooney, and it will be interesting to see if races like the Ballerina at Saratoga are on her dance card.  Dream Rush deserves another chance, but it's quite possible that she's not the same horse that took four graded races (two Grade 1's) in 2007.  Miraculous Miss is going to get there one of these days.

While Benny the Bull and Mistical Plan looked good in their respective races at Calder, Proud Spell didn't look too impressive in the Delaware Oaks.  She won on class and heart alone after being hard-ridden on the far turn.  The important thing is that she won, but the Alabama may be somewhat of a stretch considering her last two races. 

Watching Atoned run is one of the most frustrating things a racing fan can do on a Saturday afternoon.  He has the ability to be a nice, second- or third-tier three-year-old, but he just doesn't want it that badly.  He got nipped again in the Long Branch at Monmouth after making a clear lead in upper stretch.  He'll get bet once more when he shows up in the entries, but I think I've seen enough of his act.  Maybe it's time for TPI to add the blinkers.

Continue reading "Saturday thoughts, etc." »

Posted by dan_illman Jul 13, 2008 2:04:54 PM
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Saturday thoughts, etc.

An announced crowd of 8,428 showed up at Belmont Park on Saturday to watch Curlin conquer the grass.  Many flocked to the paddock where bits and pieces of conversation could be overheard by a nosy eavesdropper:

"Can he do it?"

"I know he can do it."

"I hope he can do it."

"He should do it."

He didn't do it.  Curlin didn't break particularly well from his outside position, and then was completely outrun going into the first turn when David Cohen (Mission Approved) and John Velazquez (Sudan) apparently forgot that the Man o'War is contested over 1 3/8 miles.  Mission Approved and Sudan blistered the first quarter-mile in a suicidal 22.69, then engaged in a prolonged duel for the next six furlongs.  Meanwhile, Curlin was 15 lengths off the leaders after a half-mile, and four-and-a-half lengths behind 2006 Breeders' Cup Turf winner Red Rocks, who had settled into a wonderful position stalking the dueling and soon-to-be doomed leaders.  The pacesetters were understandably spent turning for home (although Sudan ran a gallant race to finish fourth), and Red Rocks inherited the lead with a quarter-pole charge.  Curlin tried to run him down from the outside, but it's never easy giving lengths to a quality horse with a candy trip, and Red Rocks held off Curlin's rally by a determined two lengths.  The argument could be made that if the trips of the top two finishers were reversed, then Curlin not only would have beaten Red Rocks, but would have kissed him on the head as he tucked him into bed.  That wasn't the case, however, and Curlin's record past 10 furlongs now stands at 0-2.  Perhaps 1 1/4 miles is his limit.  Perhaps he isn't the same horse on grass as he is on the dirt.  But "perhaps" doesn't pay the feed man, and Red Rocks was simply the better horse on this day.  Better Talk Now took two steps onto the track, froze for a few seconds, then took off from the post parade.  As usual, he lagged behind the pace, and his connections must have been licking their chops when the fractions were posted on the toteboard, but while Better Talk Now rallied for third, he never looked a winner. 
Now, where do we go from here?  Are Curlin's connections looking for a refund for their plane tickets to Paris?  Is the Arc really out of the question?  Red Rocks was hammered by Soldier of Fortune, arguably the Arc favorite, in their most recent confrontation in Europe.  If Curlin couldn't beat Red Rocks, what makes ya think he'll beat Europe's best on their home turf at their game?  Then again, we've seen Curlin come back from losses in the past (Derby, Haskell) to do some pretty amazing things.  It's hard to ever count out the 2007 Horse of the Year.  From a bettor's standpoint, I'd be likely to play against Red Rocks next time as he'll never get a better setup than the one he received in the Man o'War.  I'd also give Sudan a look if he drops in class, and projects as the main speed. 

The homework for FormBloggers is this:

If you had to map out the rest of Curlin's campaign, what races would you target?

I'm not sure I know what to think of Colonel John's race in the Swaps.  It looked like he was going to go right on by the leaders entering the far turn, but he seemed to hang in the final eighth of a mile.  While he may have needed the race - his first since the Kentucky Derby - it didn't look like this was a colt that is ready for prime time.

Benny the Bull is prime time, and he was arguably the most impressive stakes-winner on Saturday.  He angled out sharply on the far turn while in the midst of a strong rally, and then blew past the leaders in the lane.  He's the measuring stick in the sprint division for sure.

Mistical Plan is back, and she likes to sprint.  She was very impressive winning the Grade 1 Princess Rooney, and it will be interesting to see if races like the Ballerina at Saratoga are on her dance card.  Dream Rush deserves another chance, but it's quite possible that she's not the same horse that took four graded races (two Grade 1's) in 2007.  Miraculous Miss is going to get there one of these days.

While Benny the Bull and Mistical Plan looked good in their respective races at Calder, Proud Spell didn't look too impressive in the Delaware Oaks.  She won on class and heart alone after being hard-ridden on the far turn.  The important thing is that she won, but the Alabama may be somewhat of a stretch considering her last two races. 

Watching Atoned run is one of the most frustrating things a racing fan can do on a Saturday afternoon.  He has the ability to be a nice, second- or third-tier three-year-old, but he just doesn't want it that badly.  He got nipped again in the Long Branch at Monmouth after making a clear lead in upper stretch.  He'll get bet once more when he shows up in the entries, but I think I've seen enough of his act.  Maybe it's time for TPI to add the blinkers.

Continue reading "Saturday thoughts, etc." »

Posted by dan_illman Jul 13, 2008 2:02:42 PM
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Jul 11, 2008

Saturday stakes opinions

The results of this weekend's stakes races should have a profound impact on the rest of the racing season.  If Curlin takes to the turf in the Man o'War, then it's more than likely that we'll have an American in Paris for the prestigious Arc de Triomphe.  If Colonel John rebounds from his off-the-board Kentucky Derby with a resounding performance in the Swaps at Hollywood, we may have a quality late-season three-year-old contender.  Can Proud Spell rebound in the Delaware Oaks?   Will Benny the Bull maintain his aura of invincibility at Calder?  Who are these Marty Wolfson horses, anyway?  Which older female steps up in the Delaware Handicap?

Let's take a look at some of these interesting races:

Man O'War:
It's a rare occasion indeed for a race with an odds-on favorite to have such intrigue.  If Curlin is 65% the horse on turf that he is on the main track, he should win fairly easily.  I don't want to find out the answer to that question at 2-5.  My heart is rooting for him, but I just can't take such a short price on a horse doing something for the first time.  I know that Better Talk Now can handle turf, and his recent fifth-place finish in the Manhattan on Belmont Stakes Day may indicate a return to form for the crusty nine-year-old.  As usual, he was held up at the back of the pack by Ramon Dominguez, and had to wait for an opening at the quarter-pole.  He was flying in midstretch, but Dominguez had a problem.  There was no place to go.  Dominguez angled inside, and he was stopped cold in his tracks by traffic.  While Better Talk Now doesn't have his rabbit, Shake the Bank, doing the dirty work in the Man o'War as he did in the Manhattan, the presence of Mission Approved and Sudan may ensure an honest pace.  Red Rocks is no slouch, but one has to wonder if Father Time is catching up with the 2006 Breeders' Cup Turf winner.  He didn't look too impressive beating allowance-types at Lingfield to kick off his five-year-old campaign, and he looked rank and uncomfortable when well-beaten by top-notch horses in the Coronation Cup.  Perhaps the addition of blinkers will settle him down, and he should offer value considering his accomplishments on the lawn.  Mission Approved went gate-to-wire in the Singspiel going 12 furlongs on the Woodbine sod, but he was left alone for most of the early going, and Sudan may pressure him a bit more here.  The New York-bred is sharp, but will be tested for class.  Grand Couturier received a good prep run in his first start back from the DL, but his big win in the 2007 Sword Dancer came with the aid of a pretty good trip.
Selections:  Better Talk Now, Red Rocks

Swaps:
Think the pace scenario will play out a bit differently than it did in the Affirmed at Hollywood on June 15.  That day, Tres Borrachos conceded the lead to Two Step Salsa, and the latter made him pay with a gate-to-wire score.  I'm guessing that Tres Borrachos and Tyler Baze will gun from the inside post, and at least make Two Step Salsa work a bit for early command.  That should help set things up for a closer, and I'm not giving up on Colonel John just yet.  Although his price won't entice, and he must deal with a layoff, his form from earlier in the year makes him tough to beat in this spot.  I watched the overhead shot of the Derby last night on youtube, and Colonel John's race wasn't as bad as it looks on paper.  He was in the five path on the backstretch, made an inside midmove entering the turn, and then was floated six wide at the quarter-pole.  Considering it was his first start on dirt, and considering that Big Brown wasn't getting beat by anybody that day, Colonel John gets a mulligan.  He hasn't missed a beat in his training, according to trainer Eoin Harty, and he can run these down at nine furlongs.  Two Step Salsa's only loss came on turf, and he should give the top choice a run for his money as he probably will be in front when the field turns for home.  Tres Borrachos is eligible for a 'n2L' allowance race, but the multiple graded-placed gelding shouldn't be too far away from the early lead.  I'm betting that Nownownow is better on turf than on the main, and that Madeo's loss at 1-5 odds in the Alydar exposed him as more of a second-tier performer than burgeoning three-year-old star.
Selections:  Colonel John, Two Step Salsa

Continue reading "Saturday stakes opinions" »

Posted by dan_illman Jul 11, 2008 10:57:42 PM
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Jul 9, 2008

Catching Up!

Thanks to the success of "FormBlog Across America I," the powers that be have decided to send me on the road once again!  I'll be at Del Mar for most of opening week (July 16 - 20), and would love to meet as many bloggers as possible.  If you can spare some time, come on out, and let's talk horses!

***

Dan, Have a question for you.
In the CashCall Mile, we have the double uncoupled entry of Cassidy.  Flores is riding DD and MS riding P.  MS was up on DD last time and on that horse 2 out of 3x. However, MS has been up on P as far as the PP's go.  I'm sure if MS had his choice he would be up on P.  Am I missing something?
larryk

As it pertains to jockey changes, I have trouble guessing which rider preferred which horse unless I have some physical evidence.  At tracks like Delaware Park, the riders are listed on the overnight, and oftentimes a jock is listed on more than one horse.  On the final program, the jock ends up on one mount, and it's fairly obvious which horse he (or his agent) chose.  In cases like the CashCall Mile, I'd either look on the home track's website for "first call" listings on the overnight, or I'd just handicap the horse instead of the rider.

***

dan
any info about tammie pemierini last years win leader at Suffolk?
about a week ago she had a nasty spill, next day had one mount and hasn't ridden since..
Thanks
Forego

She suffered a case of severe whiplash, and is hoping to be cleared to ride in a couple of weeks.


***

Dan,
Take a look at the conditions for Wednesday's 6th at Belmont:
For 3YO and up who have never won 3 races or 3YOs.
This was the first time I've ever seen this. This was a n3L, unless you were 3YO, in which case you could have as many wins as you want. KnowTheGame (3YO) had 3 wins, while the rest of the field had 2. He was coming out of a win at the n3L level. The "closer look" comments were dead wrong when they stated that he had raced above his conditions last out and that he was NOW eligible for n3L.
In the past performances, this race will no doubt be labeled as "Clm15000n3L", despite the fact that there was a 3-time winner in the field. This is just utterly confusing. Why is NYRA using this new twist on the n3L condition?
C

This is yet another new condition that NYRA is trying out.  It's a "Beaten Claimer" and should be designated at 'Clm15000B."  Races like this are fairly prevalent at lower-level circuits, but this is the first time I've seen it at a NYRA-run track.   As long as the horsemen fill these races (and they seem eager to do so), I expect we'll see more of these in the future.  A condition like this may attract one, two, or even three more horses to an otherwise short field.

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I believe the first two year old race over six furlongs was run Wednesday (7/2) at Arlington Park. It was a one-turn mile and Steve Asmussen trained Dancingontheedge won handily with James Graham aboard. Do you have a beyer number on his performance or any thoughts of his pedigree and potential Dan?
Brett

Dancingontheedge won the one-turn mile maiden by 5+ lengths, but only earned a 52 Beyer Speed Figure for the trouble.  She sold for $52,000 as a weanling at the OBS sale on October 9, 2006, then was purchased for $60,000 at last year's Keeneland September yearling sale. 
He is a son of first-crop stallion, The Cliff's Edge (Blue Grass winner) out of a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Von Groovey (459K in earnings) and multiple stakes-placed juvenile Dance With Jean (103K).  Dancingontheedge is a half-sister to multiple juvenile sprint stakes-winner Yesshecandance (159K).  The filly seems to have some upside, but I'm guessing she's part of Asmussen's second-string for the moment.

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Congrats to owenized for the debut victory by Storm Princess ($17.00, 51 Beyer Speed Figure) at Calder on Sunday afternoon!

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Laura I couldnt agree with you more on Discreet Treasure. I was a huge fan of Discreet Cat so it was nice to see his little sis come out of the gate and run so well. Hopefully Hough doesnt lose her too. By the way Dan, what did you think of Discreet Treasure's race?
scianc22

I need to see one more before I anoint him the next big thing.  He obviously did some very nice things as he walked out of the gate, was far, far back, and showed professionalism by altering course a few times from mid-turn to mid-stretch.  Then again, he was under the whip entering the turn, seemed a bit green at times, and didn't show the prettiest action.  From a purely pedigree standpoint, he's a promising, late-developing three-year-old (83 Beyer debut)

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Posted by dan_illman Jul 9, 2008 8:09:49 PM
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Jul 7, 2008

Weekend thoughts, Beyers

Who says you can't teach an old champion new tricks?  Not that Indian Blessing is old or anything, but she rated and finished beautifully in the Prioress after an awkward beginning.  Now the 2007 Juvenile Filly Champion is a double threat as she can use her blinding speed to run her foes into the ground early, or wait until the latter stages of a race to pounce.  Races like the Test at Saratoga should hit her right between the eyes, and credit must go to Bob Baffert for getting this filly to relax.  Remember that Baffert tried to rate her on the lead at Fair Grounds, and then removed blinkers in an attempt to relax his filly in the Acorn.  The third time was the charm in the Prioress.  Speaking of Baffert, Indian Blessing's win reminded me of a conversation I had with the silver-haired trainer on Wednesday afternoon. 

"Hi Bob.  This is Dan Illman from the Daily Racing Form.  I'm doing a story on 2-year-olds at Del Mar and Saratoga, and I was wondering if you could spare a few minutes to comment on a couple of your horses."

"Dan who?..."

There's been some conjecture as to whether Zenyatta would have fended off Tough Tiz's Sis if the latter had a clean way through in the Vanity.  We'll never know the answer to that question although as a Tough Tiz's Sis ticketholder, I wish I found out.  I think Aaron Gryder should have gotten Tough Tiz's Sis off the rail a bit earlier.  He was chasing a longshot leader that was bound to falter, and by edging off the rail on the backstretch, he would...

a) make sure he wouldn't get shuffled out

and

b) force Zenyatta a bit wider on the turn

Take nothing away from Zenyatta.  She's an absolute beast, but Tough Tiz's Sis should have gotten the jump on Zenyatta, and not the other way around.

Lucky Island has turned into a giant with the addition of Lasix, and he won the Tom Fool on the Fourth of July as easy as apple pie.  He's conquered six and seven furlongs, and it will be interesting to see if Kiaran McLaughlin attempts to stretch this potentially top sprinter over a route of ground in the near future...Speaking of top sprinters, Street Boss overcame an extremely wide position on the final bend to take the Triple Bend over game Kentucky shipper Elite Squadron.  If all goes well, he looks like a prime contender for the Breeders' Cup Cushion Track Sprint at Santa Anita this fall, but I didn't like how he drifted in while on his wrong lead in midstretch of the Triple Bend...Time to eat some crow.  I admit I thought Notional was finished.  The 2007 Florida Derby runner-up has battled lots of injuries, and was put in some wicked spots this year, but the return to dirt was just what the doctor ordered in the Salvator Mile.  Hard-ridden by Joe Bravo on the turn to make up ground on pacesetter, and defending champion, Gottcha Gold, Notional blew by his main competition, and held on gamely despite drifting a bit in the stretch.  He earned a big number, and although I'm not totally convinced of a career renaissance, he can certainly throw his hat in the growing ring of wannabe handicap stars...McLaughlin has a nice turf miler in Genuine Devotion, and he can make noise in that division before the year is up...I've watched the replay of the CashCall Mile five times now.  Each time, I'm amazed that Diamond Diva caught Ventura at the wire.  Congrats to Team Zayat for the stakes victories for J Be K and Thorn Song.  The former seems on his way to the King's Bishop after overpowering his foes on the Jersey shore while Thorn Song took advantage of a soft pace to upset the talented Einstein in the Firecracker at Churchill Downs.  Einstein was stuck in behind horses in upper stretch, but couldn't reel in the pacesetter once angled to the three path in midstretch.  He's probably better at longer distances anyway...The IEAH boys and girls struck again with Pure Clan in the American Oaks.  She wins going short, going long, on turf, and on dirt.  What's not to like?  Is there a more overrated horse in the country than Champs Elysees?  He failed once again at short odds, this time in the United Nations at Monmouth.

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Posted by dan_illman Jul 7, 2008 7:03:50 PM
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