Daily Racing Form: Community: FormBlog with Dan Illman

November 2009

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HG 160 (Aqueduct Turf Stakes)

This week's HandiGambling 160 exercise is the eighth race at Aqueduct, the Flitalong Stakes for three-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the turf.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

As of this writing, the turf is listed as "Good." Let's scratch #2 Whisked Away, #9 Unbridled Essence, #11 Sapphire Sky, #12 Kiddari, and #13 Magicalcarpetride.

I'm going to focus on two main contenders for my multi-race wagers, and will play one of them in the HG contest.

#8 - West Ocean has done little wrong in three sprint starts for Todd Pletcher, and looms the main speed in this relatively paceless race. She wasn't visually impressive when winning her first-level allowance last time out at Belmont as she looked in deep water turning for home, but she gutted it out, and may have been a little short in her first start following a minor layoff. Plus, it's never easy for a maiden graduate to immediately find success against winners yet West Ocean was able to pull off the win as the mild favorite.
One must wonder if she'll get the distance as she tries two turns, and routing, for the first time. A $400,000 yearling by Elusive Quality, a multiple Grade 3 winner on turf that successfully stretched his speed to 1 1/16 miles around one turn, West Ocean is the first runner out of Ocean Drive, a nine-time turf winner that earned a 104 Beyer Speed Figure when winning the Grade 3 Noble Damsel at one mile. Ocean Drive won three other Grade 3 events at 1 1/16 miles during her career, and is a half-sister to several blacktype horses including Futurity (G1) winner Traitor and multiple Grade 2 winner Sun King. I'm willing to gamble that West Ocean has enough pedigree to stay this trip given the right pace scenario.

#1 - Dynaslew exits a live race (third-finisher Maram tasted defeat for the first time in her career that afternoon, and returned to earn a 96 Beyer when a non-threatening sixth in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf), and may be tighter in her second start back for Bill Mott. She draws a good inside post position, and figures to save ground while not too far behind the leaders. She has some gate problems on occasion, and doesn't show a published workout in the last 19 days, but Mott often doesn't work them that hard in the mornings, and I'm expecting a good performance from this daughter of multiple stakes-winning sprinter Slews Final Answer.

As for the others,

#3 - Akilina has won three of her last four starts, and she looked good when winning a second-level optional claimer last time out in her first try at this distance. The hard-hitting statebred stakes-winner wheels back in three weeks for turf guru Christophe Clement, and wouldn't be a surprise in the least.

#4 - Bum Bum had her chances when third in an entry-level allowance event over yielding going at Keeneland, and is another that may do better in the second start following a short layoff. A couple of horses returned to finish second following that Keeneland race, but the winner could do no better than sixth at 7-2 odds in a 'n2x' allowance. Her European form seems spotty, and the late runner may need a bit more pace to adequately aid her kick.

#5 - My Golden Dream adds blinkers after an even performance over soft going in the statebred Ticonderoga at Belmont. A versatile performer going out for high-percentage connections, My Golden Dream may show enough speed to press West Ocean going into the first turn. She finished behind Akilina the last two times they've met, but has kept good company, and isn't the worst longshot stab in the world.

#6 - Shadow Lane goes third off the layoff, and it seems interesting that Jeremy Rose lands here instead of the Graham Motion runner, Bum Bum. Shadow Lane was beaten by Giant Mover last time out at the Meadowlands in a race that produced nothing of note, may be compromised by the expected moderate/slow pace, and her speed figures pale in comparison to those of the top contenders.

#7 - Giant Mover won her maiden at Belmont for Jimmy Jerkens, and has run pretty well out of town in the interim since being switched to Kiaran McLaughlin. She shouldn't be too far off the pace, but that last race at the Meadowlands looks weak from a speed and class perspective (four horses have returned from that race to run with none hitting the board, and the best next-out Beyer was a 73 at Laurel).

#10 - Denomination looks interesting for Clement and Ramon Dominguez. A Group 3 winner in France, she was thrown right to the wolves in her North American debut when sixth in the Grade 1 Beverly D., and she had a difficult trip when finishing behind Dynaslew last time out. She has ability, but the recent work tab is light, and she must deal with the far outside post and a short run into the first turn. She can win, but punters must figure out what her true "value" is before taking a strong stand.

I'll use the #1 and #8 in multi-race wagers, and will play it like this for HG160:

$100 Win - West Ocean (#8)

Best of luck to all.

Will be back with questions and comments next time.

Take care,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman 11/18/2009 01:11:10 PM
Permalink | Comments (143)

11/16/2009

Bobby Frankel

The racing world mourns the loss of Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel. If ever a horseman "did it all," it was Frankel, who began his career as a hot walker in New York in the mid-1960's. Frankel, an astute horseplayer, took out his training license in 1966 and earned his first victory on November 29 with Double Dash at Aqueduct. He showed consistent improvement in his New York years, winning five races in 1966, nine in 1967, 36 in 1968, 68 in 1969, 73 in 1970, and 84 in 1971 while gaining a reputation as "King of the Claimers."
Frankel moved his operation to California in 1972, and he won the first of his 10 Hollywood Park Spring/Summer training titles that year after saddling a record 60 winners at the meet. Overall, Frankel earned 30 training titles including the 1970 Saratoga meet, five championships at Del Mar, and six at Oak Tree at Santa Anita. A five-time Eclipse Award winner, Frankel was inducted into Racing's Hall of Fame in 1995.
A native of Brooklyn, New York, Frankel trained 10 national champions (Aldebaran, Bertrando, Ghostzapper, Ginger Punch, Intercontinental, Leroidesanimaux, Possibly Perfect, Ryafan, Squirtle Squirt, and Wandesta), won six Breeders' Cup races including the Classic (Ginger Punch, Squirtle Squirt, Ventura, Starine, Intercontinental, and Ghostzapper), guided Empire Maker to the third jewel of racing's Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes, and won 28 million-dollar races.
While battling lymphoma, horses racing in Frankel's name won the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile on September 20, and the Grade 1 Canadian International on October 17 while under the care of longtime assistant Humberto Ascanio. Former Frankel assistants that went on to great success on their own include Tony Dutrow and Chad Brown.
Frankel represented a bridge between the hard-boot horsemen of yesteryear and the cell-phone pitchmen of today. He will be greatly missed.

***

Dan, not to pick nits, but doesn't Azeri count? She did win HOY in 2002. I'm just sayin'....
Chris Garrity

Azeri's past performances were listed along with those of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta on the "All Along" post.

***

Can anyone give me any information on a jockey named Omar Moreno? He's riding at WO now, and although his win percent isn't huge, his payoffs are fantastic. I bet him to show this afternoon and got $31. WO does pay very well at this time of the year, BTW, for those that are interested. Especially on Wed. nights. But I'd be interested to hear where this fellow comes from.
knm

Moreno, 24, was raised in Edmonton, and has ridden for most of his career at Northlands Park before moving his tack to Woodbine. He learned his trade from the Olds College Exercise Rider and Jockey Trainer Program in Alberta. Moreno owns a lifetime record of 449 starts, 46 wins, 66 seconds, and 66 thirds with career earnings of $548,199, and a ROI of $1.13. His first win came on August 10, 2008 at Grande Prairie, and he has also ridden at Lethbridge and Fort Erie. At the current Woodbine meet, Moreno has 59 starts with 6 wins, 6 seconds, and 4 thirds with a win ROI of $1.99.

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Dan,
Was wondering if you could elaborate just a little on how Bet Fair works. Kind of like, Bet Fair for Dummies.
Am I to understand that if you
wagered a horse at 7-1, and he won at 3-1, you would lose the entire wager? In general how does one win and how does one lose? What is the advantage of wagering while the race is in progress? Would it be for dutching purposes?
chicago gerry

I'd go to the horse's mouth on this one:

http://help.betfair.com/contents/itemId/i65767197/index.en.html

In the Betfair world, a horseplayer can either make or take a bet. Let's say my only opinion on the Mrs. Revere Stakes was that I hated Hot Cha Cha. She's going off at 2-1 on the toteboard, but instead of betting on another horse, I'm willing to give someone 4-1, and hope that I'm right and they're wrong. I'm assuming that somebody would have taken the bait, and I would have done well as the "bookie." Punters looking for overlays may have found someone offering Zenyatta at 4-1 in the Classic, and bet with them instead of the tote.

***

Dan
How come the blog site sometimes doesn't update quickly?..I am seeing last entry at 4:50 and it is after 7:20?...it just makes it hard for us, on the site, to exchange thoughts quickly.
Also what are your thoughts of Summer Bird going to the Japan Cup?...If you owned him wouldn't you try the NYRA (Cigar)mile instead?
Also if you get the chance can you list these pp's for these NYRA warriors?
Laddy's Luck, Steelwood, Funny Cap, Boom Towner
thanks!
Mickey

The Blog is a 24/7/365 undertaking, and I don't have anyone else moderating comments at this time. On occasion, I won't have internet access, and that explains the lag time.
I don't think Summer Bird wants a one-turn mile. While nine furlongs in Japan may be a bit short for him as well, it's worth a shot for $2.8 million dollars. Since the Dubai World Cup will be run on synthetics in 2010, this will be the last chance for him to run in a multi-million dollar dirt race until next year's Breeders' Cup Classic.
Here are the pp's for the horses you requested:

Download NY oldies

***

Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's takes races:

Here are the lifetime past performances for the past week's highest and lowest Beyer stakes earners:

Download HighLow

***

Regarding last week's exercise, there was some question regarding the superfecta rules in California. Here's a link to the CHRB rule regarding the wager:

http://chrb.ca.gov/query_rules_and_regulations_database.asp?form_query_action=display_rule&form_query_rule_number=1979.1&form_query_rule_title=Superfecta%2E&form_query_article=Superfecta%2E&form_query_article_index=20&form_query_argument=1979.1

In this case, I believe that the sixth horse was scratched from the HandiGambling race after preliminary superfecta wagers were taken.

Congrats to SpartanTom for last week's HandiGambling victory. He selects the eighth race at Aqueduct on Wednesday for this week's exercise. Here are the past performances:

Download HG160

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.

Talk to you soon,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman 11/16/2009 04:31:34 PM
Permalink | Comments (159)

11/13/2009

HandiGambling 159 (Hollywood)

This week's HandiGambling 159 exercise is the fifth race at Hollywood Park, a conditioned allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 mile on the turf.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

Only a six-horse field, but the European runner, #1 Firey Red looks very, very interesting. A multiple Group 3-placed filly out of the Gulch mare Step With Style (went 1-4 in Ireland for Dermot Weld before shipping stateside to win her first two starts in North America), Firey Red broke from the far outside post in her most recent start at Tipperary, and was used early to find a pace-tracking spot while three wide. She had no punch in the stretch, but adds Lasix for her first start here, and it's promising that Garrett Gomez accepts the mount. That listed race on September 10 hasn't produced anything of note, but Firey Red may work out a good ground-saving trip if able to break alertly (always a question with European runners).

You can view Firey Red's last race at attheraces.com (free registration required).

Clocker extraordinaire Bruno De Julio was very impressed with Firey Red's workout on November 10 over the Pro-Ride surface (you can find his analysis from Today's Racing Digest on our homepage). Bruno noted that Firey Red "worked five furlongs here for Weld in 1:02.4. In company with Ruffled Feathers from the Gallagher barn, a recent maiden winner. Broke two back, caught workmate at 1/4 pole, and finished the last 1/4 in 23.4. Good."

Of the rest:

I thought #2 Flashover gave a good account of herself going this distance at Del Mar on August 12. She was caught between a rock and a hard place chasing lone pacesetter Zardana through fast fractions. She had to expend a lot of energy to catch Zardana turning for home, and simply had nothing left when late-runner Hot n' Dusty came calling in the stretch. She ran well against males last time out going down the hill, and may end up on or near the lead as she stretches out off three sprint races.

#3 Carmel Coffee should also show speed after contesting the early issue in sprints on dirt, polytrack, and grass. The five-year-old, like Flashover, has yet to win a route race, and may feel some early heat in this spot. She faced a solid dirt filly in Victorina last time out in her first start following the layoff, and can move forward off that race (note that she won her second lifetime start, her second race off a layoff on November 26, 2008, and her second race off a layoff on JUne 26, 2009).

De Julio wrote for the most recent work that Carmel Coffee "looked ok...didn't look like the old her finishing up in 1:02.3 having to be slightly urged through the lane."

#4 Christmas Ship is tailor-made for the distance, but is only 1-10 on grass. A stakes-winner on the main track, she would benefit from the expected solid pace, and should come running when the chips are down.

#5 Made for Magic gets a pass for the most recent loss against Zenyatta, but her lone turf win came in a $20,000 claimer at Golden Gate. She's improved since being claimed by A. C. Avila, and has the tactical speed to work out a nice stalking trip while just off the two speeds. She can't be counted out.

#6 Theodora has only raced once since April, and is another that can be close to the pace. She's run well fresh in the pace, but I'm leaning to others on the top spot.

I'll play the European over the two speeds, and hope to get something for the exacta.

$75 Exacta - Firey Red - Flashover (1-2)
$25 Exacta - Fire Red - Carmel Coffee (1-3)

Best of luck to all:

Posted by dan_illman 11/13/2009 04:38:28 PM
Permalink | Comments (209)

11/11/2009

All Along

Let's take a look at the past performances of the last three female Horse of the Year winners along with those of 2009's Big Two:

Download All Along

Download Lady's Secret

Download Filly Stars

Let's go back to 1983 and relive All Along's championship campaign through the words of the legendary Joe Hirsch from his "1983 Racing in Review" column from the 1984 American Racing Manual.

"There was just a modicum of doubt remaining. The Grade I, $585,700 Turf Classic at Aqueduct Race Track on October 29 drew a moderate field of 10, and none of the others had really distinguished themselves this season. The French filly had signaled her class by winning the Arc de Triomphe in Paris in October 2, and had confirmed her fine form by capturing the Grade I Rothmans International at Toronto's Woodbine Race Course on October 16.
Still, New Yorkers are inclined to be skeptical about horses from out of town until they prove themselves in the Big Apple. And so the 22,439 on hand at Aqueduct made All Along the 9-10 favorite, but maintained a bit of reserve in their assessment of her quality.
With young Wally Swinburne in the saddle, All Along stalked the early pace set by Sprink, who opened a four-length lead. When the stakes-winning Sprink began to run out of gas, after the first half-mile, it was Thunder Puddles, another stakes winner, who took over the leader's role."

"All Along began to move on the turn and, with eye-catching acceleration, flashed to the lead at the head of the stretch. The crowd roared its appreciation as she quickly opened a four-length lead at the eighth pole, and this acclamation built into a crescendo of applause as she went on to win by eight and three-quarter lengths with Thunder Puddles a distant second. Erins Isle, winner of more than $1,000,000, was third.
The French filly was indeed something special, and after she went on to capture the Washington D. C. International at Laurel, her fourth Grade I victory in the space of six weeks, there was no question that this filly was a champion. Although she had run only twice in America, she was, at season's end, voted this country's Horse of the Year 1983.
The Horse of the Year poll, originated by Daily Racing Form in 1936, was merged with the TRA poll in 1971, at which time the National Turf Writers were also invited to participate in the balloting. In the 47-year history of the poll, All Along became the first thoroughbred, based in a foreign land, to be voted America's Horse of the Year.
Despite her limited campaign in the United States, she was so impressive in what she did, and the way she did it, that she was a solid choice in the balloting over two other formidable contenders for this coveted honor: the undefeated 2-year-old, Devil's Bag, and the hard-hitting 3-year-old, Slew o' Gold, who won two of the three NYRA championship events, and who was probably the best horse in the third of those events."

"When she captured the International at Laurel on November 12, All Along also earned a $1,000,000 bonus hosted by the management of Laurel Race Course, Woodbine and the NYRA for the horse who could complete the sweep of the Rothmans, the Turf Classic at Aqueduct, and the International.
The bonus increased her earnings to $2,439,299, based on a career record of nine victories in 17 starts with three seconds and a third. All Along was literally a world-class horse, but the world didn't know about it until she was 4, and late in her 4-year-old career at that.
She raced only once as a 2-year-old, this strong-looking bay daughter of Targowice out of Agujita, by Vieux Manoir. Owned and bred by Daniel Wildenstein, an international art dealer with galleries in Paris and New York, she was trained by young Patrick Biancone, 31, and ridden during the award-winning portion of her 4-year-old season by 22-year-old Wally Swinburne Jr.
All Along showed signs at 3 that she was going to be a good one. She won the Grade I Prix Vermeille at Longchamp and later that fall journeyed to Tokyo where she finished second in the Japan Cup."

"Her people, anticipating an outstanding 4-year-old season, gave her ample time to recover from the arduous Japan trip and All Along didn't make her first start as a 4-year-old in 1983 until June 12. She raced only twice during the summer and then was second in the Grade III Prix Foy, a traditional prep for the Arc de Triomphe. Despite her good form as a 3-year-old, French bettors regarded her no better than 17-1 when she went postward in a competitive field of 26 in the Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on October 2.
The weeks prior to the Arc were eventful for All Along. Lester Piggott, England's greatest jockey, had been engaged to ride the filly in the Arc. However, he subsequently received an offer for what appeared to be a better mount, and availed himself of that opportunity, leaving All Along riderless.
It was then that Biancone made an offer to young Swinburne, son of the great Irish jockey. With Swinburne in the saddle, All Along was always well placed in the Arc de Triomphe, and with a strong bid through the three-furlong run in, prevailed by a length from the highly regarded Sun Princess, to whom she conceded seven pounds, with the speedy Luth Enchantee third.
Immediately following the Arc, All Along was flown to Toronto, where on October 16 she contested the Grade I $520,380 Rothmans International Stakes. In a field of 11, she was the 8-5 favorite. Far back during the early stages on a yielding course, it took her more than a mile to get in high gear. In the meantime, Half Iced, the 1982 Japan Cup winner, was setting the pace while Nijinsky's Secret, the Hialeah Turf Cup winner, was a solid second, ahead of Thunder Puddles."

"All Along launched her bid on the outside around the far turn, picked up horses with alacrity, and was in front at the eighth pole. She went on to win by two lengths, beating Thunder Puddles, with Majesty's Prince third and Nijinsky's Secret fourth.
Her victory in the Turf Classic on October 29 stirred interest in the International and the $1,000,000 bonus that would accrue for a sweep. In a field of eight at Laurel she was favored at 2-5, and proceeded to remove all doubt early in the race.
Reserved off the pace set by Lovely Dancer, she rushed to the front after the first mile, accomplished in a tedious 1:43 1/5. Swinburne, to his credit, saw no point in choking her to death behind those kind of fractions - a quarter in 26 3/5, the half in 51 4/5, the six furlongs in 1:17 3/5 - and so she went to the front and proceeded to cashier her field.
With a quarter of a mile remaining she was more than three lengths in front, increased her lead to six lengths at the eighth pole, and cantered home to resounding applause to win the International by three and one quarter lengths over Welsh Term, with Majesty's Prince third, just ahead of the good mare Hush Dear. The yielding nature of the course was best illustrated by the winner's time of 2:35, more than 11 full seconds off the course record."

"'Her race in the Arc de Triomphe was excellent,' Wildenstein said after the International. 'She seems to do even better in the United States than in Europe. She loves your small racetracks with their tight turns. Here at Laurel she went to the front at the half-mile pole and had never done that before. She really enjoys your racing, which is why we are planning an almost exclusive season in the United States for her in 1984, with the Breeders' Cup her major goal.'
Wildenstein, and his sons, Guy and Alec, have raced many outstanding fillies, including Allez France, winner of the Arc de Triomphe; Pawneese, winner of the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes in England; Madelia, winner of the French Oaks; Flying Water, winner of the English 1,000 Guineas, and Waya, an outstanding filly both in France and the U. S. But none of their fillies had ever done as much in such a short time as All Along.
In addition to being voted Horse of the Year, All Along was also voted champion female grass horse of 1983."

***

Hey Dan-
just wondering if you happen to know what the highest synthetic beyer for a route is? The highest beyer of any synth race I can think of in the last few years in Cali is Minight Lutes 112 in the B.C. sprint....
Oliver

Here are the top synthetic route Beyers in history:

1. Zenyatta - 112 - Breeders' Cup Classic
2. Rail Trip - 111 - Hollywood Gold Cup
3. Gio Ponti - 110 - Breeders' Cup Classic
4. Twice Over - 108 - Breeders' Cup Classic
T5. Richard's Kid - 107 - Pacific Classic
T5. Einstein - 107 - Pacific Classic
T5. Life Is Sweet - 107 - Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic
T5. Summer Bird - 107 - Breeders' Cup Classic
T5. Ball Four- 107 - Mervyn LeRoy Handicap
T5. The Pamplemousse - 107 - Sham Stakes

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Interesting angles on Twice Over...I'll have to look at him a little more on race day and will include him on some saver bets at least. I'll be there Saturday and I can't wait.
HG BC Classic 2009:
80 dollar exacta 4-7(Zenyatta over Gio Ponti) and
20 dollar exacta 7-4
I think these are the best two horses for the course, the distance, the moment. If Zenyatta wasn't in the race I'd be all over Gio Ponti, but I think she will sustain her kick through the wire and as long as she has a target I think she'll pass that target. I think the draw hurts Rip Van Winkle, as Girolamo, Regal Ransom and Quality Road could all hurt his chances early. I will cover up to 7 horses in the pick 4 in this race but for just this race I like the forty seven the best.
wilson

Congrats to wilson for finishing first in the Breeders' Cup HandiGambling contest. He chooses race five at Hollywood Park on Friday night for HG 159. Here are the past performances:

Download HG159

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.

Talk to you soon,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman 11/11/2009 02:55:16 PM
Permalink | Comments (243)

11/09/2009

Wild Breeders' Cup

On Thursday afternoon at around 3:30 p.m. Pacific, I could have told you that the Dynamic Duo of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez were in for a rough Breeders' Cup.

Johnny V. was on my JetBlue flight that had just pulled into the Bob Hope Airport in Burbank, and Pletcher was waiting by the baggage check to greet him. Now, I am never, ever, lucky when it comes to getting my luggage in a timely fashion. I've accepted it as scientific fact that if there were only three other people on a plane with me, that my bag would be the last one to reach the carousel.

I've even prepared a little ritual so I don't have to stand there, hands on hips, watching everyone else grab their stuff, and joyfully leave the scene. Upon de-planing (silly word), I stop off at the men's room (don't like airplane restrooms), pick up a copy of the local newspaper (have an obsessive need to know what's going on in the local area), grab some candy (if you haven't tried See's Peanut Brittle, well, it's another reason to live), and then trudge glacially to the baggage claim. By then, most everyone is gone, and my lonely piece of luggage is on a solitary circular quest.

A strange thing happened at around 3:30 p.m. Pacific, however. There were still loads of people waiting for their bags when I entered the fray. Surprised, and a bit perturbed, I jostled into a nice spot next to Mr. Pletcher, and waited.

And there she was. First out of the chute. I rubbed my eyes, figuring this was some sort of peanut brittle-induced mirage, but it was real. See ya later suckers. Let's forget that Pletcher and Johnny V. zoomed by a few minutes later while I was still waiting in line for my overpriced taxi. The baggage gods were finally smiling down on me.

I didn't think about it for another minute until Quality Road started acting up prior to the Breeders' Cup Classic. When he was a late scratch, I began to wonder. Were the gods favoring me, or dropping thunderbolts on Team Pletch-azquez?

For those keeping score, I think I beat out Michael Iavarone of IEAH Stables at the baggage claim back at JFK.

*How 'bout that Better Than Honour? You can add Man of Iron's name next to Rags to Riches, Jazil, and Casino Drive as major North American stakes winners that were foaled by the Deputy Minister mare. Man of Iron's Marathon victory was the only win for the two-day mini-meet for trainer Aidan O'Brien. Interestingly enough, Man of Iron was the only O'Brien runner to race with Lasix. Lillie Langtry (8th, Juvenile Fillies Turf), Viscount Nelson (8th, Juvenile Turf), Beethoven (6th, Juvenile), Alfred Nobel (10th, Juvenile), Mastercraftsman (4th, Dirt Mile), and Rip Van Winkle (10th, Classic) all raced without the anti-bleeding medication. I wonder if last year's snafu with O'Brien being fined for not announcing that all of his runners were racing with Lasix at time of entry got into his head.
Cloudy's Knight is such a hard-hitter, and he tried his heart out, but he might have made his bid a bit too soon. Mastery hung like a chandelier when the real racing began.
"He danced one too many times this year," said Mastery's rider, Frankie Dettori. "Everything is all right, the whole race went perfect, but the horse just had a long season."

Benoit Photo

***

*Pletcher almost nailed down a Breeders' Cup win after Javier Castellano masterfully slowed down the second quarter aboard Rose Catherine in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. After using his mount to get the lead through an opening stanza in 22.95, Castellano nursed Rose Catherine along with a 24.07 clocking for the next two furlongs. The pacesetter was strong turning for home, but so was Tapitsfly, a gray lady that was tracking Rose Catherine from the start. Those two engaged in a spirited stretch duel with Tapitsfly and Robby Albarado grinding out the half-length win.
"She's a little fighter," Albarado said of Tapitsfly after the race. "She's a true grass horse for sure."

Benoit Photo

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*She Be Wild was reportedly training beautifully leading up to the Juvenile Fillies, and the diminutive daughter of Offlee Wild nailed down the 2-year-old filly championship with a determined victory over tough-luck Beautician.
"I was a little worried when it looked like she might get trapped, but I have a good rider who is patient," said winning trainer Wayne Catalano.
"I had a bounced-around trip into the first turn," offered Albarado, the rider of Beautician. "I was shuffled back further than I wanted to be, but she ran really well."
"She got bumped hard on the first turn," said Tyler Baze, the rider of third-place finisher Blind Luck. She got jostled around pretty good at that point. She tried real hard, like she always does. I put her in a place to win, but she just got outrun."
The hot second-favorite, Connie and Michael, tired badly after forcing the early issue.
"It's just her second start," said her rider, Kent Desormeaux. "I wouldn't throw rocks at her. She's very classy."

(Benoit Photo)

***

*Midday put up another one for Europe with a victory in the Filly and Mare Turf. Favored, and defending champion, Forever Together, never looked comfortable from the moment the gates opened, and finished third on class alone.
"The biggest win of my career - undoubtedly," said winning rider Thomas Queally. She hit a flat spot over on the backside, and I had to get after her. She has a top gear that is really something, but we had to find it. When she quickens, it's just a dream."
"I warned him (jockey Leparoux) in the paddock that I didn't see much pace here, and told him you might want to be a little closer," noted Forever Together's trainer, Jonathan Sheppard. "I was very concerned after a quarter-mile that she was too far back. She made her run, she always does, but from an almost impossible position."

(Benoit photo)

***

*Forever Together wasn't the only defending champion that failed to receive the desired pace scenario. Ventura, last year's Filly and Mare Sprint heroine, lagged far behind dawdling splits in this year's edition. She made a mad dash from the rear of the field, but couldn't make up the tactical advantage that Informed Decision, a synthetic freak, held over her turning for home.
"She's a champion," said winning rider Julien Leparoux. "That's what champions do. She just has to be comfortable, whether she's in front, close to the pace, or behind,"
"Pace makes the race," opined Ventura's rider, Garrett Gomez. "They were going exceptionally slow up front, and there wasn't anyone up there to help me. She gave me her usual kick as we started to make our run. She's the kind of filly that you have to time just right. If I ask her too soon, that's not good either."

(Benoit Photo)

***

*Favored Careless Jewel ran off and hid during the opening six furlongs of the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, but she was out of gas when the field turned for home. The pace was hot, closers made their moves, and Life Is Sweet finally emerged from the shadow of stablemate Zenyatta, at least for the next 24 hours.
"I was a little disappointed the way she left the gate," said winning rider Gomez. "She was a little antsy today; she halfway hopped when she left the gate and she got pinched a little bit.  I actually thought they'd go ahead and start backing up about the three-eighths pole, and they kept kicking on, and I started to get a little worried. I started making a little run, and all of a sudden, about the quarter-pole, they all started coming back really solid and she started finding her stride. She's had some tough races. She had to run against Zenyatta a couple times. She ran against the boys once."
Music Note and Careless Jewel were the disappointments.
"She had a little trouble in the stretch, but I don't think that cost her the race," said Music Note's rider, Rajiv Maragh.  "The pace was fast, and I thought that she would get to it, but she just didn't have it."
Robert Landry, the rider of Careless Jewel, expected his mount to settle better during the early portion of the race. "At the first quarter she was going okay, but then she locked onto the bridle and went as far as she could as fast as she could. That's not her. Normally, she'll just relax. It's disappointing because she is a much better filly than she showed today."

(Benoit Photo)

***

*Saturday's Breeders' Cup action began with Pounced, a lovely son of Rahy that took most of the wagering from start to finish. Pounced couldn't have received a better trip under Dettori while saving ground most of the way, and he wore down pacesetter Bridgetown in the final sixteenth. Pletcher's Interactif raced well for third after being wide most of the way.
"I had a box seat," said Dettori. "Very pleased that we got the split, and he fought really hard for me. I was worried about getting clear, but the gap was big enough for me to go through, and my horse was very brave."
"He really responded" stated Landry, Bridgetown's jockey. "When I asked at the top of the lane, he dropped his head, and really dug in. That other horse just ran past him. He ran a courageous race. He's a really good horse who is only going to get better."
Interactif drifted very wide turning for home. "We quickened so fast going into the turn that I couldn't quite compensate for the turn, and that left some room for the others," said his rider, Desormeaux. "I hope this horse can 'dirt' because he acts like he wants to be my Derby horse."

(Benoit Photo)

***

*Last year, California Flag and Mr. Nightlinger dueled through unbelievable fractions of 20.73 and 41.81 before understandably retreating to the back of the pack. This year, Mr. Nightlinger was absent from the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, and California Flag felt no pressure. He shook clear through splits of 21.50, and 43.09, and that was all she wrote for his 13 opponents. Gotta Have Her, a courageous mare that really adores the downhill turf course attempted to cut the late gap, but California Flag was just too good.
"The difference between this year and last year is that last year we just said 'go,' and this year we used our heads," said winning trainer Brian Koriner. "Once we made the lead, it was over."
"She ran awesome considering the trip she had," said Gotta Have Her's rider, Baze. "Nobody stayed straight down the lane. I had to alter course three times and she should have won for fun. She was unlucky, that's all. I was the best horse."

(Benoit Photo)

***

*Bob Baffert was going for three straight Sprint wins, but his favored entrant, Zensational, had a difficult trip, and had to settle for fourth.  Upsetter Dancing in Silks received a clean jouney under Joel Rosario to post the upset for his extremely underrated trainer, Carla Gaines.
"The way Zensational had been training, and Gayego won the Ancient Title, it looked like a tough situation," said Gaines. "The way the post positions set up, we were able to sit off the pace, and make our run. The racing gods were smiling upon us today."
Crown of Thorns and Cost of Freedom, the second- and third-place finishers of the Sprint, have been plagued by physical setbacks throughout their careers, but did their connections proud on Saturday.
"He ran great," said Richard Mandella, the trainer of Crown of Thorns. "He's always made me think he's something special, and he continues to make me think that."
"I'm thrilled," said Cost of Freedom's trainer, John Sadler. "It was a race of a lifetime. He ran very well - just got beat in the last 20 yards."
The favorites didn't have the cleanest of runs. "I had to go through a hole that was so tight, and it slowed my horse down," said Gomez of Gayego.  "If the hole wasn't so tight, I think I win the race." Gayego's trainer, Saeed bin Suroor, reported that the colt would return to Dubai for the winter.
"He broke a little better than usual, but he got bumped hard when we passed the gap," stated Zensational's rider, Victor Espinoza.  "He tried hard, but it was just too much for him after that."

(Benoit Photo)

***

*Godolphin nabbed yet another winner for Europe with Vale of York's upset win in the Juvenile. He won a war of attrition during the final sixteenth with America's leading two-year-old, Looking At Lucky. The Baffert-trained Looking At Lucky, lost nothing in defeat after breaking from the far outside post, and racing wide throughout. Pletcher's Eskendereya had a terrible trip.
"He ran huge," said bin Suroor of Vale of York. "I fancied the horse before the race. He was improving all the time. He ran a big race last time when he finished second in a Group 1 in Italy. He's a tough horse, and next year we'll bring him for the Kentucky Derby."
"The last time I rode the horse about three weeks agoi in Italy, he was very unlucky," said winning rider Ahmed Atjebi. "We were going to win, and he saw the crowd, and he stopped himself. By the time I got him going, we got beat. He was unlucky to lose the time before that also. Today, it all went well."
Despite the loss, Baffert and Gomez were pleased with Lookin At Lucky's performance. "He showed today what a good horse he is," said Baffert. "It's just frustrating to know you have much the best horse and to come up short like that. I didn't give him any chance at all at the half-mile pole. At least, you know that you can look forward to the Derby."
"Today, my horse got banged around pretty hard a couple of times going into the first turn because there were a couple of horses going into the turn that came out," said Gomez. "It turned him a little sideways, but he took all that. For a young horse to keep on doing what he did - and when that horse came to him and he could fight with something, accelerate and show me that much more - makes me really excited about next year."
Ken McPeek, the trainer of third-place finisher Noble's Promise, was proud of his charge. "The work we missed a couple of weeks ago beacuse of the infection he had got us beat today. He just got a little weary in the last few jumps, but he ran great. I didn't think we were going to be able to run two weeks ago. But we got it together, and he ran super."

(Benoit Photo)

***

*Finally, a defending champion got it right. Rumors of Goldikova's demise were obviously greatly exaggerated as she stormed down the center of the track to defeat males for the second straight year in the Mile. The pace was very hot as Cowboy Cal and Gladiatorus battled through a half-mile in 45.22, and three-quarters in 1:08.34. That set things up for the late-runners, and the favorite didn't disappoint although fellow Europeans Delegator and Zacinto did not do well at all.
"The draw wasn't a big help," declared winning rider, Olivier Peslier. I didn't want to make a run until the last turn. I came wide because that was the only place to go. She's lovely."
"She was a little keyed up going to the gate, but quieter than usual," said trainer Freddie Head. "She's very special. It's been a long season, and now to make this long trip in November. We haven't discussed her future - maybe we'll come back and try for three."
Jockey Ryan Moore was baffled by the poor effort from his runner, Zacinto. "I pulled him up. I was afraid that he might have hurt himself. He took a bad step or something like that, and I was concerned, but it trns out he's fine. He is okay."

(Benoit Photo)

***

*Mastercraftsman looked very tough to beat on paper in the Dirt Mile, but he never got on track in the stretch, and was upset by up-and-coming Furthest Land, the recent winner of the Kentucky Cup Classic over Turfway Park's polytrack surface. Last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner, Midshipman, off only one race this year, ran big to finish third. Pyro and Bullsbay seemed to have problems with the footing.
"He's a big galloping horse, and he was in tight," jockey John Murtagh said of beaten favorite Mastercraftsman. "He looked out in the straight, and he wasn't quick enough, and then the gap closed on him. We're slower than Americans out of the gate. I was following Julien Leparoux (aboard the winner). I would have liked to have been out at the three-eighths pole, but like I said, there was no place to go."
"I sat on the rail right behind the leader," said Leparoux. It opened up at the quarter-pole. I found room to strike, and that was it. He always runs big on synthetics."

(Benoit Photo)

***

*Ho-hum, another European victory. Conduit made it two Breeders' Cup Turf scores in a row, but his win was overshadowed somewhat by the extremely game performance from runner-up Presious Passion. The speedy Presious Passion zipped right to his customary spot on the lead, set very fast fractions, and dug in resolutely when Conduit came calling in the stretch. I watched this race with a British racing fan, who thought Presious Passion was done when the first two splits (23.08, 45.14) appeared on the board. "Too bloody fast," he murmured. "You don't know this horse," I shot back. "He doesn't know what 'too fast' is."
Trainer Mary Hartmann doesn't get enough credit for the tremendous job she's done with Presious Passion, and she was understandably delighted by her horse's effort. "I thought he ran his race. He laid it all on the line, and he just got caught. He fought back. He just doesn't like to let them go by.
Jockey Elvis Trujillo noted how eager Presious Passion was going by the stands the first time. "The horse didn't want to relax. The first part was a little fast. I know this horse very good. He fights. Doesn't matter how fast we go. The last quarter, he'll fight everybody."
Winning rider Moore gave Conduit a heady ride, covering him up behind horses on the backstretch before decisively splitting his foes late on the turn. "I was stuck behind a lot of horses early, but that didn't worry me. I got a nice spot down the backside, and I went inside to move up. Last year went about as planned, but this year wasn't according to plan."

(Benoit Photo)

***

*Zenyatta answered all questions, save one, with her authoritative late rally in the Breeders' Cup Classic. The undefeated Amazing Amazon lagged far behind the moderate fractions set by Super Derby winner Regal Ransom, then roared by them like they were standing still in the final eighth of a mile. She is unquestionably one of the most special specimens we've seen in recent years. Superstar? Check. Undefeated? Check. Champion Distaffer? Check. Horse of the Year? Well, I have a feeling we'll be discussing that for the next couple of months.
"I still never got to the bottom of her," said jubilant winning jockey Mike Smith. "That's the amazing thing. She still had run left. She's incredible. She's sent from heaven. I was able to cut the corner with her off the turn, and that made the difference right there. When we loaded the second time, she sure stood there when the gates opened. I needed to help her out of there, but once I got out of there, she settled into stride really well. She started to get to them in the stretch, and the crowd started screaming. Then, she started looking at the crowd, so I had to get after her a little bit, but she still won within herself."
Take nothing away from Gio Ponti. What can you say about a four-time Grade 1 winner that doesn't have to carry around his racetrack with him? It's a shame that when we look back on 2009 a few years from now, Gio Ponti may be the forgotten runner due to the Rachel-Zenyatta hoopla.
"He ran so awesome," said Gio Ponti's rider, Ramon Dominguez. "He split horses like a champion inside the sixteenth pole, and just took off when he got clear. That filly's an extremely nice filly and I am so pleased and so happy with the way my horse ran."
Desormeaux, the rider of Belmont, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Summer Bird, felt his horse didn't do his best on the surface. "Synthetic tracks are more conducive to horses with turn of foot and stone closers. He is an obvious stayer. He needs to pick it up a little quicker. You need that quick turn of foot. Not the best finish for him, but he still ran an awesome race.
Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird couldn't go with the winner on the turn. "It's been a phenomenal ride," said his jockey, Calvin Borel. "He needs to get a little rest, and then get back on the dirt."
Rip Van Winkle's reported foot problems made him an iffy proposition, and he wasn't flattered by the earlier performances from Delegator, Zacinto, and Mastercraftsman. He was cold on the board in the early wagering, and didn't do much running. "He sat off them just fine, but when we got to the three-eighths pole, he emptied out pretty quick," said jockey Murtagh. "He warmed up well. I suppose the big delay at the start may not have helped him, but really no excuse today. It's after having a long season in Europe, and maybe this race was just one race too many."
The delay was caused by Quality Road's refusal to enter the stalls. "The horse is okay," Pletcher said of his Florida Derby winner. "He's got some scrapes and scratches. We're very disappointed, but it's just one of those things. We'll have to regroup and try again. It was bad timing. We got the worst luck at the worst time on the biggest day."

(Benoit Photo)

All horsemen quotes courtesy of Breeders' Cup.

***

Congrats to Wilson for finishing first in the Breeders' Cup HandiGambling contest. He picked a race for later this week, and I'll get the past performances up for you on Wednesday.

***

Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

Here are the lifetime past performances for all of the Breeders' Cup winners:

Download BC Winners 2009

***

Take care,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman 11/09/2009 04:21:14 PM
Permalink | Comments (145)

11/05/2009

HandiGambling the Classic

This week's HandiGambling exercise is the Breeders' Cup Classic, the ninth race at Santa Anita on Saturday for three-year-olds and up going 1 1/4 miles on the Pro-Ride racing surface.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

The Ladies' Classic - Classic daily double looks like an interesting bet so I'll go that route with this week's challenge:

Music Notehas been handled wonderfully by Godolphin in 2009. After a disappointing first run in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Handicap, Music Note was found to be stiff in behind, and the folks in blue backed off until Saratoga. I had to admit that I wasn't sure what we were going to get from Music Note in the Grade 1 Ballerina in the slop against sprint stalwarts Indian Blessing and Informed Decision, but I never would have guessed that the 2008 Coaching Club American Oaks (10 furlongs) winner would outsprint the big two going into the turn en route to a runaway victory.
After that win, Godolphin could have even considered a tilt in the Filly and Mare Sprint this coming weekend, but they are more comfortable with their daughter of A.P. Indy going a route o

f ground, and she rewarded their confidence with a facile final prep over next-out graded winner Unbridled Belle in the Beldame at Belmont Park on October 3.
The major question is whether she'll handle a synthetic track as well as she races on dirt, but it wasn't like she was disgraced when third to Zenyatta in last year's Ladies' Classic, and one could argue that she's fresher and more mature right now.
She's tactical enough to race in the second flight, and should be gearing up to challenge likely pacesetter Careless Jewel on the turn. Barring that bad performance in the Phipps, she's been remarkably consistent.

I have more confidence in Music Note's chances on Friday than I do with anybody in Saturday's battle royale. So, I'll spread a little bit in the Classic and hope for the best.

I gave a very tepid nod to Rip Van Winklebased on his solid campaign in Europe, but I have to admit that I'm very concerned about his foot issues. He's had problems all year, and is still a tiny bit of a question mark at ten furlongs. I think he's just as talented as Raven's Pass, last year's European Classic winner, but he's hard to totally trust at what could be underlaid odds.

I mentioned Twice Over's credentials in a previous blog, and don't want to go overboard hyping him once again, but he looks like a solid chance at a good price. He needs to run the race of his life to win this race, but he's always had ability, and it looks like Henry Cecil has his confidence back at 100%. He's a true ten-furlong runner.

Summer Bird has had an excellent campaign, grabbing the Belmont, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup, and he's shown much-improved early interest since Tim Ice added blinkers in the "Test of the Champion." The Pro-Ride question rears its ugly head once again as Summer Bird was taken away from Southern California last year after injuring himself while training over synthetics. Was the injury caused by a dislike for the synthetics, or was it simply a matter of a young horse going through growing pains? We'll find out Saturday afternoon, but I can't throw him out based on his recent form.

Quality Road couldn't stay with Summer Bird in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and it's possible that ten furlongs is a bit beyond his scope. He still has shown a lot of potential during an injury-marred campaign, and his good early speed could allow him to get the jump on his main competition. The synthetic question is here as well, but if he stays near his 12-1 morning line odds, he's worth the gamble.

I have a lot of respect for the other Classic contenders, but I won't be spinning the wheel.

Mine That Bird makes his second start off throat surgery, and always has a puncher's chance, but he's had a lot of hard races this year, and may be past his peak form.

Colonel Johncan certainly win this. He's shown a lot of grit in 2009, returning from a pulled muscle in his hind end and a bout with pleural pneumonia to win the Wickerr, and just miss in the Goodwood It seems like he's rounding into his best game, and he could certainly spoil my HandiGambling party.

Zenyatta is a wonderful mare, and my heart will be rooting for her to keep her unbeaten streak intact, but she's going to have to improve off her recent Beyers, has never raced at 10 furlongs, and will probably be overbet. My heart says 'yes,' but my wallet will stay closed.

I think that Richard's Kidmay be even better over longer distances, and he's been a revelation since adding blinkers, switching to synthetics, and coming under the tutelage of Bob Baffert. You know he'll be with Mine That Bird and Zenyatta early. Let's see if he can outkick them. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if he does.

Gio Pontipreviously won four Grade 1 races on turf, and was beaten by a combination of the 12-furlong distance and boggy ground in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic on October 3. He has a nice burst of speed, is proven over the Pro-Ride, and would be a very deserving winner. I wonder if he is a bit over the top after a tough stretch of races.

Einsteinis one of my all-time favorite horses, and he showed his affinity for the Pro-Ride when winning the Big Cap. His Pacific Classic was good, and his tactical speed should have him in a comfortable spot heading into the final turn. He would be another feel-good story as a hard-hitting oldtimer getting his just desserts.

Girolamohas potential, and may turn out to be a big time 4-year-old, but I wonder if this is a case of too much too soon. He changed back to his wrong lead once he made the front from Kensei in the Jerome, has never raced around two turns, and has never run on synthetics.

Regal Ransom will likely be among the early leaders, but he walked on the lead in the Super Derby, and I'm not sure if he got enough out of that race, his first since the Kentucky Derby, to have the proper foundation to beat this kind of field.

Awesome Gem is a joy to own, but doesn't win very often. He may be at his best on wet dirt at this point in his career, and is another that might appreciate more distance.

Here's how I'll play it:

$25 Daily Double - Music Note with Rip Van Winkle (7-10)
$25 Daily Double - Music Note with Twice Over (7-5)
$25 Daily Double - Music Note with Summer Bird (7-3)
$25 Daily Double - Music Note with Quality Road (7-12)

Best of luck to all.

I don't really have many clever opinions during the weekend. I like Forever Together to repeat in the Filly and Mare Turf, and she'll be bet hard.

One possible longshot is Vale of Yorkin the Juvenile, a speedy colt adding Lasix for Godolphin that may try to take them on a merry chase on the front end.

After initially discarding her earlier in the week, I'm going to include She Be Wild in the Juvenile Fillies. She was in and among horses heading into the far turn of the Alcibiades, and may have gotten a lot out of that race.

Posted by dan_illman 11/05/2009 09:05:01 PM
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11/04/2009

A Classic Longshot?

Do I think that Twice Over is a better horse than Einstein, Gio Ponti, Quality Road, Rip Vin Winkle, Summer Bird, and undefeated Zenyatta?

Of course not.

Do I think that he's the longshot play in Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita?

I do.

Ever since Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator completed an all-European exacta in last year's Pro-Ride Classic, horseplayers have been searching for the next invader from across the pond that could conceivably make mincemeat of our best handicap stars.

First, it was Sea the Stars, the wunderhorse from Ireland that cut a swath from London to Longchamp, leaving all challengers reeling in the wake of his brilliance. His win in the Arc de Triomphe was his crowning achievement, however, and it was off to stud before he could tackle American's best.

Then, it was Mastercraftsman, thrice a bridesmaid to Sea the Stars overseas, and a convincing winner of his final prep race, a synthetic route at Dundalk used last year by Breeders' Cup Marathon winner Muhannak. Instead, Mastercraftsman was re-routed to the Synthetic Mile by his crafty trainer Aidan O'Brien in a move that originally seemed to instill confidence in O'Brien's other Classic hopeful, Rip Van Winkle.

Rip Van Winkle looked like a major danger in the Classic, but lingering foot issues have hampered his recent progress. While he can certainly win this race, and is my top selection in the paper, he doesn't seem as formidable with the recent injury a major chink in his armor.

That leaves Europhile handicappers with Twice Over.

Q - Who is he?

A - A son of Queen Elizabeth II winner Observatory, Twice Over began his career with three straight victories, including a nose win over Raven's Pass in the Group 3 Craven Stakes at a mile. He finished third as the favorite in the Dante Stakes, but it was found afterwards that his blood work was off, and that may have contributed to his loss.

After a no-excuse third behind Henrythenavigator and Raven's Pass in the Group 1 St. James's Palace Stakes, Twice Over shipped to France, where he won the Group 2 Prix Eugene Adam before a terrible trip contributed to his defeat as the co-favorite in the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano.

Returning to England, he ran second to the classy New Approach in the Group 1 Champion Stakes, but started his four-year-old campaign on the wrong hoof with a very disappointing performance in the Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket.

Twice Over returned to his best form with a third-place finish in the Group 1 Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes after setting the pace into a strong headwind. After a fourth-place finish to 2008 French Derby winner Vision d'Etat in the Prince of Wales's Stakes, he was beaten badly by Sea the Stars in the Coral-Eclipse.
Trainer Henry Cecil had to be frustrated. His colt had shown flashes, but the consistency just wasn't there. So Cecil did what many, many trainers have done over the years with this kind of horse. He started over with a drop in class.

The results were immediate and resounding.

Twice Over bullied his opponents in the Debenhams Frenchgate Conditions Stakes, and then followed that up with another facile score in the listed First Drinks Brands Foundation Stakes. Forget that he was beating up on tomato cans. his confidence was now sky-high, and Cecil tried the highest grade again in the Champion Stakes at Newmaket on October 17. The field was solid enough with Irish and English Oaks heroine Sariska, Irish Derby winner Fame and Glory, Prix d'Ispahan hero Never on Sunday, Prix Jean Romanet winner Alpine Rose, and Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes winner Virtual among the contenders. But it was Twice Over rallying to win it at 14-1 odds.

"He's improved with age, and has confidence now," Cecil told The Racing Post after the Champion.

Q - Can he handle the distance?

A - He's 4-9 at ten furlongs in Europe, and his last three races (all wins) came at the Classic distance.

Q - Will he handle the surface?

A - Nobody knows. At 20-1, I'll find out.

Q - Any negatives?

A - He has a bad tendency to drift right during the late stages of his races. If he pulls that stunt on Saturday, it will cost him.

All in all, we have a European runner in good form that has faced and beaten good horses, loves the distance, and will be a huge price.

Stranger things have happened, right?

***

This week's special BC HandiGambling is the Classic. All of the wagers offered on the Classic including Ladies Classic - Classic Double bets are allowed. Here are the past performances:

Download HandiGambling the Classic

Talk to you soon,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman 11/04/2009 05:02:13 PM
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11/02/2009

Lots to cover

Also, with the return to Aqu, I was wondering if you could post some old pp's of some of these warriors: Engine One, Kings Swan, Moro and More to Tell?
Mickey

Here are the past performances.

Download Big A Warriors

On November 12, 1990, I learned a major lession in racetrack humility. The feature race at the Big A was a $50,000 starter handicap at 1 1/8 miles, and I absolutely loved Joker's Farce, a four-year-old trained by Wayne Lukas. It was a good field that included Farewell Wave, the third-place finisher of the previous season's Discovery Handicap, but the major attraction (at least from a fan standpoint) was the dean of the local handicap division. King's Swan was making his 106th lifetime start, and was four years removed from his Grade 1 victory in the Vosburgh Stakes. In the interim, "The King" had won graded races like the Boojum, Westchester, Aqueduct, Assault (twice), Stymie, Bold Ruler, Tom Fool, and Grey Lag. Now, at the ripe old age of ten, it looked like King's Swan was getting long in the tooth. He had lost seven in a row, and Joker's Farce was an in-form youngster.
I bet the new kid on the block, and began to head for the windows in midstretch when Joker's Farce collared and passed King's Swan. Chuckling to myself as I counted the winnings in my head, I became disoriented as a huge booming cheer arose from the Aqueduct grandstand. King's Swan was re-rallying. The old man wouldn't lie down. I raced back to the apron, but the sinking feeling in my stomach, the feeling of defeat, was extremely familiar. It was the same feeling I endured when King's Swan beat back one of my favorite runners, Love That Mac, in 1986. It was the same nausea I encountered when he wouldn't let Raja's Shark, another favorite, go past him that same year. When King's Swan wanted to beat you, there was nothing one could do. No amount of rooting or cheering was going to put Joker's Farce in the winner's circle. So I kept my mouth shut, and watched in awe as the old-timer did what he loved - win - for the final time in his illustrious career. The oldtimer shut up a cocky kid that afternoon, and he also shut up Joker's Farce.

***

Here are the lifetime past performances for the highest and lowest Beyer stakes performers of the week:

Download Tribaldiva

***

Here's another question for you, Dan: Has anyone won the BC Juvy off a msw win, or off 1 start?
slewofdamascus

Let's take a look at the past Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners, their number of races leading up to the BC, and their most recent prep start:

1984: Chief's Crown - 8 prior races, won Norfolk (1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita)
1985: Tasso - 6 prior races, won Breeders' Futurity (1 1/16 miles, Keeneland)
1986: Capote - 3 prior races, won Norfolk
1987: Success Express - 6 prior races, fourth Norfolk
1988: Is It True - 5 prior races, second Champagne (1 mile, Belmont)
1989: Rhythm - 4 prior races, second Champagne
1990: Fly So Free - 5 prior races, won Champagne
1991: Arazi - 7 prior races, won Grand Criterium (About 1 mile on turf, Longchamp)
1992: Gilded Time - 3 prior races, won Arlington-Washington Futurity (1 mile, Arlington)
1993: Brocco - 2 prior races, won 'n1x' allowance (7 furlongs, Santa Anita)
1994: Timber Country - 6 prior races, won Champagne (1 1/16 miles, Belmont)
1995: Unbridled's Song - 2 prior starts, fourth Champagne
1996: Boston Harbor - 6 prior races, won Breeders' Futurity
1997: Favorite Trick - 6 prior races, won Breeders' Futurity
1998: Answer Lively - 6 prior races, second Breeders' Futurity
1999: Anees - 3 prior races, third Norfolk
2000: Macho Uno - 3 prior races, won Grey Breeders' Cup (1 1/16 miles, Woodbine)
2001: Johannesburg - 6 prior races, won Middle Park Stakes (6 furlongs on turf , Newmarket)
2002: Vindication - 3 prior races, won Kentucky Cup Juvenile (1 1/16 miles, Turfway)
2003: Action This Day- 2 prior races, won maiden special weight (1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita)
2004: Wilko - 10 prior races, third Royal Lodge (1 mile on turf, Ascot)
2005: Stevie Wonderboy- 4 prior races, won Del Mar Futurity (7 furlongs, Del Mar)
2006: Street Sense - 4 prior races, third Breeders' Futurity (1 1/16 miles on polytrack, Keeneland)
2007: War Pass - 3 prior races, won Champagne (1 mile, Belmont)
2008: Midshipman - 3 prior races, second Norfolk (1 1/16 miles, Pro-Ride, Santa Anita)

***

Speaking of nice 2yo fillies, I was at Keeneland Friday and saw a very impressive 2yo filly named Protesting break her maiden for Shug McGaughey. Check out the replay of the race. I don't know what kind of Beyer she got, but she won easily in her 2 turn debut despite some trouble and drew off to beat a nice field of 2yr olds.
Stewart

Dan,
Could you post the winning Beyer for SWEET SOPHIA on 10/25 at Santa Anita? I had been waiting for her to start and cashed on this debut win which I thought was very impressive.
Kyri

Protesting, a three-quarter sister to Grade 2 winner Parading, earned a 69 Beyer Speed Figure after winning her maiden by five lengths going nine furlongs on Keeneland's polytrack on October 23.

Sweet Sophia, a $150,000 half-sister to Grade 3 winner Fight for Ally by Smarty Jones, received a 72 Beyer Speed Figure for her debut score going down the hill at Santa Anita.

***

Where on the DRF website will I be able to find an analysis
of the workouts leading up to the Breeder's Cup? If the DRF is going to offer this, will it be in the October 29Th paper edition? Who will be doing it?
chicago gerry

Mike Welsch will be heading the DRF clockers. You can find the analysis by clicking the following link:

http://www.drf.com/news/content/616.html

***

Could someone post a list of tracks that run a 1 turn mile?? Dirt and Turf please. I like to know for breeders cup handicapping.
Stephanie

The list of one turn miles stands as such:
--Arlington Park (poly only)
--Aqueduct (main/outer dirt track only)
--Belmont Park (dirt course and to an extent, Widener Turf.)
--Churchill Downs (dirt only)
--Colonial Downs (dirt only)
--Gulfstream Park (dirt only)
--Laurel Park (dirt only)
--Woodbine (turf only)
PGM

***

Dan,
Thanks for the heads-up on the future stars. Gotta love the Stormy Atlantics, such an underrated sire. A few pp request for you; I'm interested in Midwest mares Heatherten and Sefa's Beauty, and also Sham and Eillo. Thanks in advance, very much appreciated!
ABZ

Here they are minus Sham (he's a bit too old for our database):

Download Eillo

Download Midwesterners

***

What does 2000/1000 Guineas mean and why do multiple tracks have a race by that name?
Captain Bodgit

CaptainBodgit,
The Guinea was a coin. 2000/1000 Guineas was the purse or winner's take of those races when they started, which was a very, very long time ago. The name stuck.

***

Dan,
I've been looking all over the internet trying to find 2010 racing dates for Paris and London area tracks. I'm going over in April and have no idea what, if anything, will be going on. I'd like to check out a couple of tracks around Paris or London but can't find what would be running. Do you know where I could find this?
Thanks!
EnglishChannel

Check out this website for race dates in Britain.

http://www.ukracingfixtures.co.uk/index.php?id=course&page=chester

I'm still trying to find some more information for French racing. You might want to look at this sight for more information:

http://www.frbc.net/en-US/racing_hippodromes.php

***

Seing a new thing in DFR's pp's now. A claiming race will look like this in the running lines Clm 30,000(30,000-25,000)B. What does the "B" stand for?
Captain Bodgit

The 'B' refers to a beaten claimer. An example of a beaten claimer would be "for three-year-olds, or for four-year-olds and upward that have never won two races." In this case, a three-year-old with 20 wins (or any amount of wins) would be eligible to face 'n2L' older runners.

***

Hi, lots of great reading here i see, but someone led me in this direction so i may possibly find out some info on a mare from late 70's early 80s named End Of The Rainbow who raced @ waterford park. my kids recently purchased me a winners photo of her from jan 1979 thats now on my wall so we were interested in finding out whatever we can about her. what we know is she raced 55 times w/ 7 winners and was bred to 2x. any additional info will be greatly appreciated by my herd and i. thanks for your time!
Richard Omack

Here are the past performances for End of the Rainbow:

Download End of the Rainbow

Here are the past performances of her foals:

Download Rainbow Foals

***

Ok here is another question..lets say a long shot wins the Classic (and RA never exsisted)..who is your HOY then based off the accomplshments of the year? Would you give it to Gio Ponti?, Einstein?, Careless Jewel (with a win), ....or someone else?
Mickey

If Gio Ponti didn't disgrace himself in defeat, I'd probably give it to him. Four Grade 1 victories over a wide array of distances and surfaces would sway me. But it would be very close with Summer Bird, Zenyatta, and Careless Jewel (with a win in the Ladies Classic). Of course, this is in the case that Rachel didn't exist.

***

could you post the BC Beyers fromlastyear at SA?
chase clements

Classic: Raven's Pass - 110
FM Turf: Forever Together - 105
Juvenile: Midshipman - 91
Juvenile Fillies: Stardom Bound - 94
Ladies Classic: Zenyatta - 103
Mile: Goldikova - 107
Sprint: Midnight Lute - 112
Turf: Conduit - 116
Marathon: Muhannak - 100
FM Sprint: Ventura - 105
Dirt Mile: Albertus Maximus - 102
Juvenile Turf: Donativum - 93
Juvenile Fillies Turf: Maram - 87
Turf Sprint: Desert Code - 101

Congrats to Van Savant for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. This week's race will be the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Posted by dan_illman 11/02/2009 04:47:56 PM
Permalink | Comments (143)

10/31/2009

Beat the (Weekend) Chalk

Once again, let's try to beat the chalk!

Bold Ruler Handicap - Aqueduct (Race 4)

Past the Point is listed as the 5-2 morning line favorite in this evenly-matched sprint, and I don't really like him at all. He's only won one of his last eight races, and while you can make legitimate excuses for some of his recent losses (he didn't like synthetics in the Phoenix, San Carlos, San Pasqual, Native Diver; he didn't like Rachel or Curlin in the last two runnings of the Woodward; the pace was too hot in last years's Meadowlands Cup), he didn't impress me when drifting out through the stretch of his 'n3x' victory to kick off this form cycle at Saratoga. He's been a bit of a "reputation" horse since the Curlin race, and he may be ripe for the pickings this afternoon.
I'll take a chance with Gold Trippi, a veteran that seems to do better on the smaller NYRA tracks (Aqueduct and Saratoga) than he does on "Big Sandy." (3-6 at Aque-toga while 1-8 at Belmont). He wasn't disgraced in his last two races at Belmont, however (second to heavily-favored Biker Boy on October 17, second to next-out De Francis runner-up Ravalo on September 25), and he defeated Breeders' Cup bound Pyro (albeit a short Pyro) in the James Marvin Stakes at this distance during the Saratoga meet. He'll need some pace help, but is capable on his best day.
Sing Baby Sing (third start following surgery), Cherokee Country (possible lone speed, beat Biker Boy in track record effort two back at Philly Park), and Le Grand Cru (sharp for Allen Jerkens) are also possible alternatives to the favorite.

Before we move on, I'd like to mention an invaluable resource for Breeders' Cup handicapping. It's the Keeneland Clocker Report at www.keeneland.com. I've talked about it for the last few years now, and the clockers have been on several live runners. I know I don't like Past the Point, but the October 26 report noted that he "went well on his own." There aren't many negative workouts on the report, but a lack of a mention could be construed as a rather blah outing.

Princess Elizabeth Stakes - Woodbine (Race 6)

Ernfold is the deserving 5-2 morning line chalk after finishing a troubled third on grass in the Grade 3 Natalma on September 19 but, as with Past the Point, I didn't like the way she finished up her previous race over polytrack (drifting out during the stretch of the maiden win).
Perhaps Silent Wisper can make it two in a row for trainer Michael Keogh. She prompted a moderate pace while three wide last time out, took over in upper stretch from the two path, and kept on in a professional maiden score. A daughter of Wando, she's really picked up her game since being asked to go around two turns, and may work out a stalking trip in a race with several speeds.
Roan Inish is a maiden, but she's shipping in from Europe following a Group 3 loss at 6-1, and may offer some value at 12-1 on the line.

Turnback the Alarm Handicap - Aqueduct (Race 9)

It's probably folly to play against Unbridled Belle, the 3-5 morning line favorite who just ran second behind Ladies' Classic-bound Music Note in the Grade 1 Beldame, but Unbridled Belle just hasn't seemed like the same mare over the 2008-2009 seasons that she was when she won the Beldame in 2007. The folks at Team Valor reportedly tried to breed her twice to A.P. Indy during the spring, and brought her back when the matings didn't catch. Aside from a big win over sloppy going in the Grade 3 Obeah at Delaware (arguably her favorite surface), she's lost ground from the stretch call to the wire in all of her races this year (albeit against much-tougher competition. She's obviously the horse to beat, and if they leave her alone on the front end, they're all going to run for second, but if Weathered, who chased hot splits last week against males in the Empire Classic, decides to run with Unbridled Belle, the result could be interesting.
Use Unbridled Belle in your multi-race plays, but take a chance as well with Way With Words, an improving New Jersey-bred trained by Mary Eppler. She's won three of her last four dirt starts (only loss in the string came over sloppy going), and has previously used the turf-to-dirt move successfully (Eleven North Handicap win in 2008 came using the angle). She's 10-1 on the morning line, and had to go pretty fast during the middle portion of the Politely Stakes two back while in the midst of a three-ply pace battle (albeit after chasing a very slow opening quarter-mile).

Jack Goodman Stakes - Oak Tree at Santa Anita (Race 3)

Macias is the 2-1 morning line favorite, and it looks like she has a good deal of ability, but I'll go with the runner that beat Macias at Del Mar.
I'll go with Privilaged, a speedy John Sadler-trained ridgeling that wasn't disgraced in his first start against winners here three weeks ago. After breaking a half-length slowly, Privilaged rushed up to prompt the pace from in between horses, and put both early rivals away before understandably faltering in the stretch. He'll have to run and gun from the inside post under Joel Rosario, but he may be the speed of the speed, and is worth another chance.

Bruno De Julio, the top-notch clocker in Southern California (his workout analysis from Today's Racing Digestis available on the DRF homepage), has been impressed with the favorite's recent workouts. On October 11, he writes that he "loved the way he worked on the grass. Went off real slow for the first 1/4 and stormed home in 22.4. Huge, huge late run for two-year-old." Two weeks later, Bruno noted that Macias "worked strongly and looks real good. Loved the way he finished."

Fayette - Keeneland (Race 9)

Parading is the morning line favorite at 7-5 based on his solid performances against Grade 1 company in California as well as a big victory over course and distance in the Ben Ali during the spring meeting. The veteran has done a lot of traveling though, and I wonder if he'll regress shipping back East after a pair of career-best Beyer Speed Figures. The Keeneland Clocker noted that Parading "went easily, off in 13, and galloped out in 1:01." for the October 26 synthetic drill, but I don't think he's worth a very short price.
Second-choice Blame wouldn't be a big surprise after chasing Breeders' Cup-bound Regal Ransom through ridiculously slow fractions in the Super Derby. Take what you will from the Keeneland Clocker Reports on Blame:

*October 14: "Reserved early behind Dr. Hudson, responded when asked, and was well clear at the finish, Theriot up."

Dr. Hudson is a 2-year-old that ran third at 30-1 with a 57 Beyer Speed Figure on October 22.

*October 21: "Good finish on his own, last eighth in 11 4/5, galloped out 1:26 2/5, and 1:41 1/5, Theriot up."

*October 27: "Continues to train forwardly, was a neck better than Brazilionaire, both were in hand, Theriot up."

Brazilionaire is a three-year-old maiden claimer with a 62 Beyer top.

My selection to beat the chalk is Public Speaker, a former $50,000 claimer that has won his last two starts, is 4-5 on synthetic surfaces, and "is very sharp right now," according to the Clocker Report for October 18. Last time out, in the slop at Hawthorne, he was involved in a three-ply pace battle while on the outside, hooked up through a fast middle portion of the race, and still grinded out the victory. He may be the main speed breaking from the inside post.

On Sunday at Churchill, let's take a shot with Mr. Lukas and Decelerator in the Pocahontas, and Mr. Stidham and Comedero in the Iroquois.

More importantly, who do you like this weekend. I want to know.

Congrats to Van Savant for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling. Let's do the BC Classic this week!

Have a great weekend.

Dan

Posted by dan_illman 10/31/2009 08:01:34 AM
Permalink | Comments (165)

10/28/2009

HandiGambling 157 (Oak Tree)

Today's HandiGambling 157 exercise is the seventh race at Oak Tree, a 'n1x' optional claimer for fillies and mares going one mile on the turf.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

#7 Malibu Win is 1 lb. overweight.

I don't have a strong opinion on this race, and fear that I won't be of much help. Here goes nothing.

I landed on three contenders.

#3 Mohaka didn't have an easy trip on October 7 going nine furlongs on the Santa Anita lawn. She was hung three wide every step of the way while chasing soft fractions, put away the two inside pace runners turning for home, and understandably tired in the lane. She should appreciate turning back in class, and the removal of blinkers could help her relax a bit better in the early portion of the race. She switches to Garrett Gomez, and may work out a nice stalking trip behind probable pacesetters Malibu Win and My Maloof Rocker.

#6 Dextera successfully dropped into $50,000 claimers on October 2 over this course and distance with a victory over next-out winner Coatcheck Girl (took a $62,500 claimer as the even-money favorite on October 21 with an 85 Beyer). She's in sharp form for Jim Cassidy, and should get enough pace to run at during the closing stages. She does have to step up against older rivals, however.

#7 Malibu Win may be the fastest of the pace runners. The lightly-raced filly only made her career debut during this summer's Del Mar meeting (she won that day over this distance at 33-1 odds), and she's shown good speed on her two starts against winners. If apprentice rider Christian Santiago Reyes can get this filly to relax down the backstretch, she may have enough gas left in the tank to make some noise.

As for the others:

#1 Bombina is a European invader, and should be respected as such. Trainer Kathy Walsh is a very underrated source of solid winners, and she has done extremely well with European imports over the last two years (two starters, two winners with an ROI over $11). I don't think Bombina faced much overseas, however, and our friends at The Racing Post weren't very impressed with her last run. Consider this comment:

"It would appear that Bombina needs everything to fall in her favour. She was travelling as well as the winner over 1f out but when Surprise Party edged right into her ground she was unable - or was perhaps reluctant - to commit again. The manner in which her head went back when she was placed under pressure was another negative."

Bruno De Julio, one of the leading clockers in the country, has been impressed by Bombina's recent workouts. In his daily report for Today's Racing Digest, available on our home page, Bombina "went well here in 1:00 flat, looked good through the stretch, never was asked, and galloped out strong," for the October 17 workout, and "left the half for Walsh and came to the wire in 46.4. Went to the mile pole in 59.2. Looked good."

So, we have conflicting opinions on Bombina. The winner of her last race returned to score again while the runner-up bombed and finished off-the-board in her subsequent start. Let price be your guide. She certainly can work out a trip from the rail under Victor Espinoza.

#2 My Maloof Rocker has five lifetime wins, and the rest of the field has seven combined. She rode a soft pace in a gate-to-wire score last time out, but may have to deal with Malibu Win in the early portion of this race. De Julio noted that she "went well early in 23.4. Finished ok down the lane in 48.1. Was ridden for the last part of the work." She's in good form, and wouldn't be a surprise for hot barn.

#4 Andalacia scares me a bit in this competitive heat. She was walked off the track at Del Mar, but returned to finish a rallying third going seven furlongs over the polytrack on September 30. She can certainly improve in her second start back. De Julio wrote that she "couldn't stand up on the DMR turf, but went OK here on the pro-ride and finished in 1:02 flat here after splits of 12.4, 37.3 and finished in 49.1 and 1:02 flat. With Music Magic here." Music Magic finished second in the Torrey Pines Stakes over the Del Mar polytrack on September 6 with an 82 Beyer.

#5 Fire n' Brimstone has been a bit of a tease. She runs races fast enough to win this, but often settles for second or third. Let's toss out the recent run on polytrack, and she only finished two behind Mohaka on September 5. De Julio mentions the good workout on October 19. "Worked well and finished strongly late in 1:00.4 on our watch. Finished final 1/4 in 24 flat." A hot pace would help, but she may be best played on the bottom of exotic wagers.

It's a tough race, and one in which I don't have a clever opinion so I won't get cute.

$100 Win - Mohaka (#3)

Best of luck to all.

Posted by dan_illman 10/28/2009 04:27:24 PM
Permalink | Comments (215)

About

Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD Trip Handicapping, and has also authored Betting Maidens & Two-Year-Olds. Dan is a frequent radio and TV guest, has appeared on ESPN, TVG, and HRTV, and is also the host of the DRF Newsdesk. He also is the co-host of the "Out of the Gate" program for the New York City Off-Track Betting Network. He has worked for Daily Racing Form since 1998, and was a handicapper in the daily paper from 2000-2005.

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November 2009

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HG 160 (Aqueduct Turf Stakes)

Bobby Frankel

HandiGambling 159 (Hollywood)

All Along

Wild Breeders' Cup

HandiGambling the Classic

A Classic Longshot?

Lots to cover

Beat the (Weekend) Chalk

HandiGambling 157 (Oak Tree)

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