11/11/2009

All Along

Let's take a look at the past performances of the last three female Horse of the Year winners along with those of 2009's Big Two:

Download All Along

Download Lady's Secret

Download Filly Stars

Let's go back to 1983 and relive All Along's championship campaign through the words of the legendary Joe Hirsch from his "1983 Racing in Review" column from the 1984 American Racing Manual.

"There was just a modicum of doubt remaining.  The Grade I, $585,700 Turf Classic at Aqueduct Race Track on October 29 drew a moderate field of 10, and none of the others had really distinguished themselves this season.  The French filly had signaled her class by winning the Arc de Triomphe in Paris in October 2, and had confirmed her fine form by capturing the Grade I Rothmans International at Toronto's Woodbine Race Course on October 16.
Still, New Yorkers are inclined to be skeptical about horses from out of town until they prove themselves in the Big Apple.  And so the 22,439 on hand at Aqueduct made All Along the 9-10 favorite, but maintained a bit of reserve in their assessment of her quality.
With young Wally Swinburne in the saddle, All Along stalked the early pace set by Sprink, who opened a four-length lead.  When the stakes-winning Sprink began to run out of gas, after the first half-mile, it was Thunder Puddles, another stakes winner, who took over the leader's role."

"All Along began to move on the turn and, with eye-catching acceleration, flashed to the lead at the head of the stretch.  The crowd roared its appreciation as she quickly opened a four-length lead at the eighth pole, and this acclamation built into a crescendo of applause as she went on to win by eight and three-quarter lengths with Thunder Puddles a distant second.  Erins Isle, winner of more than $1,000,000, was third.
The French filly was indeed something special, and after she went on to capture the Washington D. C. International at Laurel, her fourth Grade I victory in the space of six weeks, there was no question that this filly was a champion.  Although she had run only twice in America, she was, at season's end, voted this country's Horse of the Year 1983.
The Horse of the Year poll, originated by Daily Racing Form in 1936, was merged with the TRA poll in 1971, at which time the National Turf Writers were also invited to participate in the balloting.  In the 47-year history of the poll, All Along became the first thoroughbred, based in a foreign land, to be voted America's Horse of the Year. 
Despite her limited campaign in the United States, she was so impressive in what she did, and the way she did it, that she was a solid choice in the balloting over two other formidable contenders for this coveted honor:  the undefeated 2-year-old, Devil's Bag, and the hard-hitting 3-year-old, Slew o' Gold, who won two of the three NYRA championship events, and who was probably the best horse in the third of those events."

"When she captured the International at Laurel on November 12, All Along also earned a $1,000,000 bonus hosted by the management of Laurel Race Course, Woodbine and the NYRA for the horse who could complete the sweep of the Rothmans, the Turf Classic at Aqueduct, and the International.
The bonus increased her earnings to $2,439,299, based on a career record of nine victories in 17 starts with three seconds and a third.  All Along was literally a world-class horse, but the world didn't know about it until she was 4, and late in her 4-year-old career at that.
She raced only once as a 2-year-old, this strong-looking bay daughter of Targowice out of Agujita, by Vieux Manoir.  Owned and bred by Daniel Wildenstein, an international art dealer with galleries in Paris and New York, she was trained by young Patrick Biancone, 31, and ridden during the award-winning portion of her 4-year-old season by 22-year-old Wally Swinburne Jr.
All Along showed signs at 3 that she was going to be a good one.  She won the Grade I Prix Vermeille at Longchamp and later that fall journeyed to Tokyo where she finished second in the Japan Cup."

"Her people, anticipating an outstanding 4-year-old season, gave her ample time to recover from the arduous Japan trip and All Along didn't make her first start as a 4-year-old in 1983 until June 12.  She raced only twice during the summer and then was second in the Grade III Prix Foy, a traditional prep for the Arc de Triomphe.  Despite her good form as a 3-year-old, French bettors regarded her no better than 17-1 when she went postward in a competitive field of 26 in the Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on October 2.
The weeks prior to the Arc were eventful for All Along.  Lester Piggott, England's greatest jockey, had been engaged to ride the filly in the Arc.  However, he subsequently received an offer for what appeared to be a better mount, and availed himself of that opportunity, leaving All Along riderless.
It was then that Biancone made an offer to young Swinburne, son of the great Irish jockey.  With Swinburne in the saddle, All Along was always well placed in the Arc de Triomphe, and with a strong bid through the three-furlong run in, prevailed by a length from the highly regarded Sun Princess, to whom she conceded seven pounds, with the speedy Luth Enchantee third. 
Immediately following the Arc, All Along was flown to Toronto, where on October 16 she contested the Grade I $520,380 Rothmans International Stakes.  In a field of 11, she was the 8-5 favorite.  Far back during the early stages on a yielding course, it took her more than a mile to get in high gear.  In the meantime, Half Iced, the 1982 Japan Cup winner, was setting the pace while Nijinsky's Secret, the Hialeah Turf Cup winner, was a solid second, ahead of Thunder Puddles."

"All Along launched her bid on the outside around the far turn, picked up horses with alacrity, and was in front at the eighth pole.  She went on to win by two lengths, beating Thunder Puddles, with Majesty's Prince third and Nijinsky's Secret fourth. 
Her victory in the Turf Classic on October 29 stirred interest in the International and the $1,000,000 bonus that would accrue for a sweep.  In a field of eight at Laurel she was favored at 2-5, and proceeded to remove all doubt early in the race. 
Reserved off the pace set by Lovely Dancer, she rushed to the front after the first mile, accomplished in a tedious 1:43 1/5.  Swinburne, to his credit, saw no point in choking her to death behind those kind of fractions - a quarter in 26 3/5, the half in 51 4/5, the six furlongs in 1:17 3/5 - and so she went to the front and proceeded to cashier her field.
With a quarter of a mile remaining she was more than three lengths in front, increased her lead to six lengths at the eighth pole, and cantered home to resounding applause to win the International by three and one quarter lengths over Welsh Term, with Majesty's Prince third, just ahead of the good mare Hush Dear.  The yielding nature of the course was best illustrated by the winner's time of 2:35, more than 11 full seconds off the course record."

"'Her race in the Arc de Triomphe was excellent,' Wildenstein said after the International.  'She seems to do even better in the United States than in Europe.  She loves your small racetracks with their tight turns.  Here at Laurel she went to the front at the half-mile pole and had never done that before.  She really enjoys your racing, which is why we are planning an almost exclusive season in the United States for her in 1984, with the Breeders' Cup her major goal.'
Wildenstein, and his sons, Guy and Alec, have raced many outstanding fillies, including Allez France, winner of the Arc de Triomphe; Pawneese, winner of the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes in England; Madelia, winner of the French Oaks; Flying Water, winner of the English 1,000 Guineas, and Waya, an outstanding filly both in France and the U. S.  But none of their fillies had ever done as much in such a short time as All Along.
In addition to being voted Horse of the Year, All Along was also voted champion female grass horse of 1983."

***

Hey Dan-
just wondering if you happen to know what the highest synthetic beyer for a route is? The highest beyer of any synth race I can think of in the last few years in Cali is Minight Lutes 112 in the B.C. sprint....
Oliver

Here are the top synthetic route Beyers in history:

1.  Zenyatta - 112 - Breeders' Cup Classic
2.  Rail Trip - 111 - Hollywood Gold Cup
3.  Gio Ponti - 110 - Breeders' Cup Classic
4.  Twice Over - 108 - Breeders' Cup Classic
T5.  Richard's Kid - 107 - Pacific Classic
T5.  Einstein - 107 - Pacific Classic
T5.  Life Is Sweet - 107 - Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic
T5.  Summer Bird - 107 - Breeders' Cup Classic
T5.  Ball Four- 107 - Mervyn LeRoy Handicap
T5.  The Pamplemousse - 107 - Sham Stakes

***

Interesting angles on Twice Over...I'll have to look at him a little more on race day and will include him on some saver bets at least.  I'll be there Saturday and I can't wait.
HG BC Classic 2009:
80 dollar exacta 4-7(Zenyatta over Gio Ponti) and
20 dollar exacta 7-4
I think these are the best two horses for the course, the distance, the moment.  If Zenyatta wasn't in the race I'd be all over Gio Ponti, but I think she will sustain her kick through the wire and as long as she has a target I think she'll pass that target.  I think the draw hurts Rip Van Winkle, as Girolamo, Regal Ransom and Quality Road could all hurt his chances early.  I will cover up to 7 horses in the pick 4 in this race but for just this race I like the forty seven the best.
wilson

Congrats to wilson for finishing first in the Breeders' Cup HandiGambling contest.  He chooses race five at Hollywood Park on Friday night for HG 159.  Here are the past performances:

Download HG159

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. 

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

Talk to you soon,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman 11/11/2009 02:55:16 PM
Permalink | Comments (169)

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11/09/2009

Wild Breeders' Cup

On Thursday afternoon at around 3:30 p.m. Pacific, I could have told you that the Dynamic Duo of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez were in for a rough Breeders' Cup. 

Johnny V. was on my JetBlue flight that had just pulled into the Bob Hope Airport in Burbank, and Pletcher was waiting by the baggage check to greet him.  Now, I am never, ever, lucky when it comes to getting my luggage in a timely fashion.  I've accepted it as scientific fact that if there were only three other people on a plane with me, that my bag would be the last one to reach the carousel. 

I've even prepared a little ritual so I don't have to stand there, hands on hips, watching everyone else grab their stuff, and joyfully leave the scene.  Upon de-planing (silly word), I stop off at the men's room (don't like airplane restrooms), pick up a copy of the local newspaper (have an obsessive need to know what's going on in the local area), grab some candy (if you haven't tried See's Peanut Brittle, well, it's another reason to live), and then trudge glacially to the baggage claim.  By then, most everyone is gone, and my lonely piece of luggage is on a solitary circular quest. 

A strange thing happened at around 3:30 p.m. Pacific, however.  There were still loads of people waiting for their bags when I entered the fray.  Surprised, and a bit perturbed, I jostled into a nice spot next to Mr. Pletcher, and waited. 

And there she was.  First out of the chute.  I rubbed my eyes, figuring this was some sort of peanut brittle-induced mirage, but it was real.  See ya later suckers.  Let's forget that Pletcher and Johnny V. zoomed by a few minutes later while I was still waiting in line for my overpriced taxi.   The baggage gods were finally smiling down on me.

I didn't think about it for another minute until Quality Road started acting up prior to the Breeders' Cup Classic.  When he was a late scratch, I began to wonder.  Were the gods favoring me, or dropping thunderbolts on Team Pletch-azquez?

For those keeping score, I think I beat out Michael Iavarone of IEAH Stables at the baggage claim back at JFK.

*How 'bout that Better Than Honour?  You can add Man of Iron's name next to Rags to Riches, Jazil, and Casino Drive as major North American stakes winners that were foaled by the Deputy Minister mare.  Man of Iron's Marathon victory was the only win for the two-day mini-meet for trainer Aidan O'Brien.  Interestingly enough, Man of Iron was the only O'Brien runner to race with Lasix.  Lillie Langtry (8th, Juvenile Fillies Turf), Viscount Nelson (8th, Juvenile Turf), Beethoven (6th, Juvenile), Alfred Nobel (10th, Juvenile), Mastercraftsman (4th, Dirt Mile), and Rip Van Winkle (10th, Classic) all raced without the anti-bleeding medication.  I wonder if last year's snafu with O'Brien being fined for not announcing that all of his runners were racing with Lasix at time of entry got into his head. 
Cloudy's Knight is such a hard-hitter, and he tried his heart out, but he might have made his bid a bit too soon.  Mastery hung like a chandelier when the real racing began. 
"He danced one too many times this year," said Mastery's rider, Frankie Dettori.  "Everything is all right, the whole race went perfect, but the horse just had a long season."

Benoit Photo

***

*Pletcher almost nailed down a Breeders' Cup win after Javier Castellano masterfully slowed down the second quarter aboard Rose Catherine in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.  After using his mount to get the lead through an opening stanza in 22.95, Castellano nursed Rose Catherine along with a 24.07 clocking for the next two furlongs.  The pacesetter was strong turning for home, but so was Tapitsfly, a gray lady that was tracking Rose Catherine from the start.  Those two engaged in a spirited stretch duel with Tapitsfly and Robby Albarado grinding out the half-length win. 
"She's a little fighter," Albarado said of Tapitsfly after the race.  "She's a true grass horse for sure."

 
Benoit Photo

***

*She Be Wild was reportedly training beautifully leading up to the Juvenile Fillies, and the diminutive daughter of Offlee Wild nailed down the 2-year-old filly championship with a determined victory over tough-luck Beautician. 
"I was a little worried when it looked like she might get trapped, but I have a good rider who is patient," said winning trainer Wayne Catalano.  
"I had a bounced-around trip into the first turn," offered Albarado, the rider of Beautician.  "I was shuffled back further than I wanted to be, but she ran really well."  
"She got bumped hard on the first turn," said Tyler Baze, the rider of third-place finisher Blind Luck.  She got jostled around pretty good at that point.  She tried real hard, like she always does.  I put her in a place to win, but she just got outrun."  
The hot second-favorite, Connie and Michael, tired badly after forcing the early issue. 
"It's just her second start," said her rider, Kent Desormeaux.  "I wouldn't throw rocks at her.  She's very classy."

 
(Benoit Photo)

***

*Midday put up another one for Europe with a victory in the Filly and Mare Turf.  Favored, and defending champion, Forever Together, never looked comfortable from the moment the gates opened, and finished third on class alone. 
"The biggest win of my career - undoubtedly," said winning rider Thomas Queally.  She hit a flat spot over on the backside, and I had to get after her.  She has a top gear that is really something, but we had to find it.  When she quickens, it's just a dream."
"I warned him (jockey Leparoux) in the paddock that I didn't see much pace here, and told him you might want to be a little closer," noted Forever Together's trainer, Jonathan Sheppard.   "I was very concerned after a quarter-mile that she was too far back.  She made her run, she always does, but from an almost impossible position."

 
(Benoit photo)

***

*Forever Together wasn't the only defending champion that failed to receive the desired pace scenario.  Ventura, last year's Filly and Mare Sprint heroine, lagged far behind dawdling splits in this year's edition.  She made a mad dash from the rear of the field, but couldn't make up the tactical advantage that Informed Decision, a synthetic freak, held over her turning for home. 
"She's a champion," said winning rider Julien Leparoux.  "That's what champions do.  She just has to be comfortable, whether she's in front, close to the pace, or behind,"  
"Pace makes the race," opined Ventura's rider, Garrett Gomez.  "They were going exceptionally slow up front, and there wasn't anyone up there to help me.  She gave me her usual kick as we started to make our run.  She's the kind of filly that you have to time just right.  If I ask her too soon, that's not good either."

 
(Benoit Photo)

***

*Favored Careless Jewel ran off and hid during the opening six furlongs of the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, but she was out of gas when the field turned for home.  The pace was hot, closers made their moves, and Life Is Sweet finally emerged from the shadow of stablemate Zenyatta, at least for the next 24 hours. 
"I was a little disappointed the way she left the gate," said winning rider Gomez.  "She was a little antsy today; she halfway hopped when she left the gate and she got pinched a little bit.  I actually thought they'd go ahead and start backing up about the three-eighths pole, and they kept kicking on, and I started to get a little worried.  I started making a little run, and all of a sudden, about the quarter-pole, they all started coming back really solid and she started finding her stride.  She's had some tough races.  She had to run against Zenyatta a couple times.  She ran against the boys once." 
Music Note and Careless Jewel were the disappointments.  
"She had a little trouble in the stretch, but I don't think that cost her the race," said Music Note's rider, Rajiv Maragh.  "The pace was fast, and I thought that she would get to it, but she just didn't have it."
Robert Landry, the rider of Careless Jewel, expected his mount to settle better during the early portion of the race.  "At the first quarter she was going okay, but then she locked onto the bridle and went as far as she could as fast as she could.  That's not her.  Normally, she'll just relax.  It's disappointing because she is a much better filly than she showed today." 

(Benoit Photo)

***

*Saturday's Breeders' Cup action began with Pounced, a lovely son of Rahy that took most of the wagering from start to finish.  Pounced couldn't have received a better trip under Dettori while saving ground most of the way, and he wore down pacesetter Bridgetown in the final sixteenth.  Pletcher's Interactif raced well for third after being wide most of the way.  
"I had a box seat," said Dettori.  "Very pleased that we got the split, and he fought really hard for me.  I was worried about getting clear, but the gap was big enough for me to go through, and my horse was very brave."
"He really responded" stated Landry, Bridgetown's jockey.  "When I asked at the top of the lane, he dropped his head, and really dug in.  That other horse just ran past him.  He ran a courageous race.  He's a really good horse who is only going to get better."
Interactif drifted very wide turning for home.  "We quickened so fast going into the turn that I couldn't quite compensate for the turn, and that left some room for the others," said his rider, Desormeaux.  "I hope this horse can 'dirt' because he acts like he wants to be my Derby horse."

(Benoit Photo)

***

*Last year, California Flag and Mr. Nightlinger dueled through unbelievable fractions of 20.73 and 41.81 before understandably retreating to the back of the pack.  This year, Mr. Nightlinger was absent from the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, and California Flag felt no pressure.  He shook clear through splits of 21.50, and 43.09, and that was all she wrote for his 13 opponents.  Gotta Have Her, a courageous mare that really adores the downhill turf course attempted to cut the late gap, but California Flag was just too good.
"The difference between this year and last year is that last year we just said 'go,' and this year we used our heads," said winning trainer Brian Koriner.  "Once we made the lead, it was over."
"She ran awesome considering the trip she had," said Gotta Have Her's rider, Baze.  "Nobody stayed straight down the lane.  I had to alter course three times and she should have won for fun.  She was unlucky, that's all.  I was the best horse."

 
(Benoit Photo)

***

*Bob Baffert was going for three straight Sprint wins, but his favored entrant, Zensational, had a difficult trip, and had to settle for fourth.  Upsetter Dancing in Silks received a clean jouney under Joel Rosario to post the upset for his extremely underrated trainer, Carla Gaines.  
"The way Zensational had been training, and Gayego won the Ancient Title, it looked like a tough situation," said Gaines.  "The way the post positions set up, we were able to sit off the pace, and make our run.  The racing gods were smiling upon us today."
Crown of Thorns and Cost of Freedom, the second- and third-place finishers of the Sprint, have been plagued by physical setbacks throughout their careers, but did their connections proud on Saturday.
"He ran great," said Richard Mandella, the trainer of Crown of Thorns.  "He's always made me think he's something special, and he continues to make me think that."
"I'm thrilled," said Cost of Freedom's trainer, John Sadler.  "It was a race of a lifetime.  He ran very well - just got beat in the last 20 yards."
The favorites didn't have the cleanest of runs.  "I had to go through a hole that was so tight, and it slowed my horse down," said Gomez of Gayego.  "If the hole wasn't so tight, I think I win the race."  Gayego's trainer, Saeed bin Suroor, reported that the colt would return to Dubai for the winter.
"He broke a little better than usual, but he got bumped hard when we passed the gap," stated Zensational's rider, Victor Espinoza.  "He tried hard, but it was just too much for him after that."

 
(Benoit Photo)

***

*Godolphin nabbed yet another winner for Europe with Vale of York's upset win in the Juvenile.  He won a war of attrition during the final sixteenth with America's leading two-year-old, Looking At Lucky.  The Baffert-trained Looking At Lucky, lost nothing in defeat after breaking from the far outside post, and racing wide throughout.  Pletcher's Eskendereya had a terrible trip.
"He ran huge," said bin Suroor of Vale of York.  "I fancied the horse before the race.  He was improving all the time.  He ran a big race last time when he finished second in a Group 1 in Italy.  He's a tough horse, and next year we'll bring him for the Kentucky Derby."
"The last time I rode the horse about three weeks agoi in Italy, he was very unlucky," said winning rider Ahmed Atjebi.  "We were going to win, and he saw the crowd, and he stopped himself.  By the time I got him going, we got beat.  He was unlucky to lose the time before that also.  Today, it all went well."
Despite the loss, Baffert and Gomez were pleased with Lookin At Lucky's performance.  "He showed today what a good horse he is," said Baffert.  "It's just frustrating to know you have much the best horse and to come up short like that.  I didn't give him any chance at all at the half-mile pole.  At least, you know that you can look forward to the Derby."
"Today, my horse got banged around pretty hard a couple of times going into the first turn because there were a couple of horses going into the turn that came out," said Gomez.  "It turned him a little sideways, but he took all that.  For a young horse to keep on doing what he did - and when that horse came to him and he could fight with something, accelerate and show me that much more - makes me really excited about next year."
Ken McPeek, the trainer of third-place finisher Noble's Promise, was proud of his charge.  "The work we missed a couple of weeks ago beacuse of the infection he had got us beat today.  He just got a little weary in the last few jumps, but he ran great.  I didn't think we were going to be able to run two weeks ago.  But we got it together, and he ran super."

 
(Benoit Photo)

***

*Finally, a defending champion got it right.  Rumors of Goldikova's demise were obviously greatly exaggerated as she stormed down the center of the track to defeat males for the second straight year in the Mile.  The pace was very hot as Cowboy Cal and Gladiatorus battled through a half-mile in 45.22, and three-quarters in 1:08.34.  That set things up for the late-runners, and the favorite didn't disappoint although fellow Europeans Delegator and Zacinto did not do well at all.  
"The draw wasn't a big help," declared winning rider, Olivier Peslier.  I didn't want to make a run until the last turn.  I came wide because that was the only place to go.  She's lovely."
"She was a little keyed up going to the gate, but quieter than usual," said trainer Freddie Head.  "She's very special.  It's been a long season, and now to make this long trip in November.  We haven't discussed her future - maybe we'll come back and try for three."
Jockey Ryan Moore was baffled by the poor effort from his runner, Zacinto.  "I pulled him up.  I was afraid that he might have hurt himself.  He took a bad step or something like that, and I was concerned, but it trns out he's fine.  He is okay."

 
(Benoit Photo)

***

*Mastercraftsman looked very tough to beat on paper in the Dirt Mile, but he never got on track in the stretch, and was upset by up-and-coming Furthest Land, the recent winner of the Kentucky Cup Classic over Turfway Park's polytrack surface.  Last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner, Midshipman, off only one race this year, ran big to finish third.  Pyro and Bullsbay seemed to have problems with the footing.
"He's a big galloping horse, and he was in tight," jockey John Murtagh said of beaten favorite Mastercraftsman.  "He looked out in the straight, and he wasn't quick enough, and then the gap closed on him.  We're slower than Americans out of the gate.  I was following Julien Leparoux (aboard the winner).  I would have liked to have been out at the three-eighths pole, but like I said, there was no place to go."
"I sat on the rail right behind the leader," said Leparoux.  It opened up at the quarter-pole.  I found room to strike, and that was it.  He always runs big on synthetics."

 
(Benoit Photo)

***

*Ho-hum, another European victory.  Conduit made it two Breeders' Cup Turf scores in a row, but his win was overshadowed somewhat by the extremely game performance from runner-up Presious Passion.  The speedy Presious Passion zipped right to his customary spot on the lead, set very fast fractions, and dug in resolutely when Conduit came calling in the stretch.  I watched this race with a British racing fan, who thought Presious Passion was done when the first two splits (23.08, 45.14) appeared on the board.  "Too bloody fast," he murmured.  "You don't know this horse," I shot back.  "He doesn't know what 'too fast' is."
Trainer Mary Hartmann doesn't get enough credit for the tremendous job she's done with Presious Passion, and she was understandably delighted by her horse's effort.  "I thought he ran his race.  He laid it all on the line, and he just got caught.  He fought back.  He just doesn't like to let them go by.  
Jockey Elvis Trujillo noted how eager Presious Passion was going by the stands the first time.  "The horse didn't want to relax.  The first part was a little fast.  I know this horse very good.  He fights.  Doesn't matter how fast we go.  The last quarter, he'll fight everybody."
Winning rider Moore gave Conduit a heady ride, covering him up behind horses on the backstretch before decisively splitting his foes late on the turn.  "I was stuck behind a lot of horses early, but that didn't worry me.  I got a nice spot down the backside, and I went inside to move up.  Last year went about as planned, but this year wasn't according to plan."

  
(Benoit Photo)

***

*Zenyatta answered all questions, save one, with her authoritative late rally in the Breeders' Cup Classic.  The undefeated Amazing Amazon lagged far behind the moderate fractions set by Super Derby winner Regal Ransom, then roared by them like they were standing still in the final eighth of a mile.  She is unquestionably one of the most special specimens we've seen in recent years.  Superstar?  Check.  Undefeated?  Check.  Champion Distaffer?  Check.  Horse of the Year?  Well, I have a feeling we'll be discussing that for the next couple of months.  
"I still never got to the bottom of her," said jubilant winning jockey Mike Smith.  "That's the amazing thing.  She still had run left.  She's incredible.  She's sent from heaven. I was able to cut the corner with her off the turn, and that made the difference right there.  When we loaded the second time, she sure stood there when the gates opened.  I needed to help her out of there, but once I got out of there, she settled into stride really well.  She started to get to them in the stretch, and the crowd started screaming.  Then, she started looking at the crowd, so I had to get after her a little bit, but she still won within herself."
Take nothing away from Gio Ponti.  What can you say about a four-time Grade 1 winner that doesn't have to carry around his racetrack with him?  It's a shame that when we look back on 2009 a few years from now, Gio Ponti may be the forgotten runner due to the Rachel-Zenyatta hoopla.  
"He ran so awesome," said Gio Ponti's rider, Ramon Dominguez. "He split horses like a champion inside the sixteenth pole, and just took off when he got clear.  That filly's an extremely nice filly and I am so pleased and so happy with the way my horse ran."
Desormeaux, the rider of Belmont, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Summer Bird, felt his horse didn't do his best on the surface.  "Synthetic tracks are more conducive to horses with turn of foot and stone closers.  He is an obvious stayer.  He needs to pick it up a little quicker.  You need that quick turn of foot.  Not the best finish for him, but he still ran an awesome race.
Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird couldn't go with the winner on the turn.  "It's been a phenomenal ride," said his jockey, Calvin Borel.  "He needs to get a little rest, and then get back on the dirt."
Rip Van Winkle's reported foot problems made him an iffy proposition, and he wasn't flattered by the earlier performances from Delegator, Zacinto, and Mastercraftsman.  He was cold on the board in the early wagering, and didn't do much running.  "He sat off them just fine, but when we got to the three-eighths pole, he emptied out pretty quick," said jockey Murtagh.  "He warmed up well.  I suppose the big delay at the start may not have helped him, but really no excuse today.  It's after having a long season in Europe, and maybe this race was just one race too many."
The delay was caused by Quality Road's refusal to enter the stalls.  "The horse is okay," Pletcher said of his Florida Derby winner.  "He's got some scrapes and scratches.  We're very disappointed, but it's just one of those things.  We'll have to regroup and try again.  It was bad timing.  We got the worst luck at the worst time on the biggest day."

(Benoit Photo)  

All horsemen quotes courtesy of Breeders' Cup.

***

Congrats to Wilson for finishing first in the Breeders' Cup HandiGambling contest.  He picked a race for later this week, and I'll get the past performances up for you on Wednesday.
 
 
 ***

Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

Here are the lifetime past performances for all of the Breeders' Cup winners:

Download BC Winners 2009

***

Take care,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman 11/09/2009 04:21:14 PM
Permalink | Comments (145)

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11/05/2009

HandiGambling the Classic

This week's HandiGambling exercise is the Breeders' Cup Classic, the ninth race at Santa Anita on Saturday for three-year-olds and up going 1 1/4 miles on the Pro-Ride racing surface.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

The Ladies' Classic - Classic daily double looks like an interesting bet so I'll go that route with this week's challenge:

Music Notehas been handled wonderfully by Godolphin in 2009.  After a disappointing first run in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Handicap, Music Note was found to be stiff in behind, and the folks in blue backed off until Saratoga.  I had to admit that I wasn't sure what we were going to get from Music Note in the Grade 1 Ballerina in the slop against sprint stalwarts Indian Blessing and Informed Decision, but I never would have guessed that the 2008 Coaching Club American Oaks (10 furlongs) winner would outsprint the big two going into the turn en route to a runaway victory. 
After that win, Godolphin could have even considered a tilt in the Filly and Mare Sprint this coming weekend, but they are more comfortable with their daughter of A.P. Indy going a route o

f ground, and she rewarded their confidence with a facile final prep over next-out graded winner Unbridled Belle in the Beldame at Belmont Park on October 3.
The major question is whether she'll handle a synthetic track as well as she races on dirt, but it wasn't like she was disgraced when third to Zenyatta in last year's Ladies' Classic, and one could argue that she's fresher and more mature right now.
She's tactical enough to race in the second flight, and should be gearing up to challenge likely pacesetter Careless Jewel on the turn.  Barring that bad performance in the Phipps, she's been remarkably consistent.

I have more confidence in Music Note's chances on Friday than I do with anybody in Saturday's battle royale.  So, I'll spread a little bit in the Classic and hope for the best.

I gave a very tepid nod to Rip Van Winklebased on his solid campaign in Europe, but I have to admit that I'm very concerned about his foot issues.  He's had problems all year, and is still a tiny bit of a question mark at ten furlongs.  I think he's just as talented as Raven's Pass, last year's European Classic winner, but he's hard to totally trust at what could be underlaid odds.  

I mentioned Twice Over's credentials in a previous blog, and don't want to go overboard hyping him once again, but he looks like a solid chance at a good price.  He needs to run the race of his life to win this race, but he's always had ability, and it looks like Henry Cecil has his confidence back at 100%.  He's a true ten-furlong runner.

Summer Bird has had an excellent campaign, grabbing the Belmont, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup, and he's shown much-improved early interest since Tim Ice added blinkers in the "Test of the Champion."  The Pro-Ride question rears its ugly head once again as Summer Bird was taken away from Southern California last year after injuring himself while training over synthetics.  Was the injury caused by a dislike for the synthetics, or was it simply a matter of a young horse going through growing pains?  We'll find out Saturday afternoon, but I can't throw him out based on his recent form.

Quality Road couldn't stay with Summer Bird in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and it's possible that ten furlongs is a bit beyond his scope.  He still has shown a lot of potential during an injury-marred campaign, and his good early speed could allow him to get the jump on his main competition.  The synthetic question is here as well, but if he stays near his 12-1 morning line odds, he's worth the gamble. 

I have a lot of respect for the other Classic contenders, but I won't be spinning the wheel.

Mine That Bird makes his second start off throat surgery, and always has a puncher's chance, but he's had a lot of hard races this year, and may be past his peak form.

Colonel Johncan certainly win this. He's shown a lot of grit in 2009, returning from a pulled muscle in his hind end and a bout with pleural pneumonia to win the Wickerr, and just miss in the Goodwood  It seems like he's rounding into his best game, and he could certainly spoil my HandiGambling party.

Zenyatta is a wonderful mare, and my heart will be rooting for her to keep her unbeaten streak intact, but she's going to have to improve off her recent Beyers, has never raced at 10 furlongs, and will probably be overbet.  My heart says 'yes,' but my wallet will stay closed.

I think that Richard's Kidmay be even better over longer distances, and he's been a revelation since adding blinkers, switching to synthetics, and coming under the tutelage of Bob Baffert.  You know he'll be with Mine That Bird and Zenyatta early.  Let's see if he can outkick them.  It wouldn't be a huge surprise if he does.

Gio Pontipreviously won four Grade 1 races on turf, and was beaten by a combination of the 12-furlong distance and boggy ground in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic on October 3.  He has a nice burst of speed, is proven over the Pro-Ride, and would be a very deserving winner.  I wonder if he is a bit over the top after a tough stretch of races.

Einsteinis one of my all-time favorite horses, and he showed his affinity for the Pro-Ride when winning the Big Cap.  His Pacific Classic was good, and his tactical speed should have him in a comfortable spot heading into the final turn.  He would be another feel-good story as a hard-hitting oldtimer getting his just desserts.

Girolamohas potential, and may turn out to be a big time 4-year-old, but I wonder if this is a case of too much too soon.  He changed back to his wrong lead once he made the front from Kensei in the Jerome, has never raced around two turns, and has never run on synthetics.

Regal Ransom will likely be among the early leaders, but he walked on the lead in the Super Derby, and I'm not sure if he got enough out of that race, his first since the Kentucky Derby, to have the proper foundation to beat this kind of field.

Awesome Gem is a joy to own, but doesn't win very often.  He may be at his best on wet dirt at this point in his career, and is another that might appreciate more distance.

Here's how I'll play it:

$25 Daily Double - Music Note with Rip Van Winkle (7-10)
$25 Daily Double - Music Note with Twice Over (7-5)
$25 Daily Double - Music Note with Summer Bird (7-3)
$25 Daily Double - Music Note with Quality Road (7-12)

Best of luck to all.

I don't really have many clever opinions during the weekend.  I like Forever Together to repeat in the Filly and Mare Turf, and she'll be bet hard.  

One possible longshot is Vale of Yorkin the Juvenile, a speedy colt adding Lasix for Godolphin that may try to take them on a merry chase on the front end. 

After initially discarding her earlier in the week, I'm going to include She Be Wild in the Juvenile Fillies.  She was in and among horses heading into the far turn of the Alcibiades, and may have gotten a lot out of that race.

Posted by dan_illman 11/05/2009 09:05:01 PM
Permalink | Comments (374)

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11/04/2009

A Classic Longshot?

Do I think that Twice Over is a better horse than Einstein, Gio Ponti, Quality Road, Rip Vin Winkle, Summer Bird, and undefeated Zenyatta?

Of course not.

Do I think that he's the longshot play in Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita?

I do.

Ever since Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator completed an all-European exacta in last year's Pro-Ride Classic, horseplayers have been searching for the next invader from across the pond that could conceivably make mincemeat of our best handicap stars. 

First, it was Sea the Stars, the wunderhorse from Ireland that cut a swath from London to Longchamp, leaving all challengers reeling in the wake of his brilliance.  His win in the Arc de Triomphe was his crowning achievement, however, and it was off to stud before he could tackle American's best. 

Then, it was Mastercraftsman, thrice a bridesmaid to Sea the Stars overseas, and a convincing winner of his final prep race, a synthetic route at Dundalk used last year by Breeders' Cup Marathon winner Muhannak.  Instead, Mastercraftsman was re-routed to the Synthetic Mile by his crafty trainer Aidan O'Brien in a move that originally seemed to instill confidence in O'Brien's other Classic hopeful, Rip Van Winkle.

Rip Van Winkle looked like a major danger in the Classic, but lingering foot issues have hampered his recent progress.  While he can certainly win this race, and is my top selection in the paper, he doesn't seem as formidable with the recent injury a major chink in his armor.  

That leaves Europhile handicappers with Twice Over.

Q - Who is he?

A - A son of Queen Elizabeth II winner Observatory, Twice Over began his career with three straight victories, including a nose win over Raven's Pass in the Group 3 Craven Stakes at a mile.  He finished third as the favorite in the Dante Stakes, but it was found afterwards that his blood work was off, and that may have contributed to his loss. 

After a no-excuse third behind Henrythenavigator and Raven's Pass in the Group 1 St. James's Palace Stakes,  Twice Over shipped to France, where he won the Group 2 Prix Eugene Adam before a terrible trip contributed to his defeat as the co-favorite in the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano. 

Returning to England, he ran second to the classy New Approach in the Group 1 Champion Stakes, but started his four-year-old campaign on the wrong hoof with a very disappointing performance in the Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket.  

Twice Over returned to his best form with a third-place finish in the Group 1 Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes after setting the pace into a strong headwind.  After a fourth-place finish to 2008 French Derby winner Vision d'Etat in the Prince of Wales's Stakes, he was beaten badly by Sea the Stars in the Coral-Eclipse. 
Trainer Henry Cecil had to be frustrated.  His colt had shown flashes, but the consistency just wasn't there.  So Cecil did what many, many trainers have done over the years with this kind of horse.  He started over with a drop in class. 

The results were immediate and resounding. 

Twice Over bullied his opponents in the Debenhams Frenchgate Conditions Stakes, and then followed that up with another facile score in the listed First Drinks Brands Foundation Stakes.  Forget that he was beating up on tomato cans. his confidence was now sky-high, and Cecil tried the highest grade again in the Champion Stakes at Newmaket on October 17.  The field was solid enough with Irish and English Oaks heroine Sariska, Irish Derby winner Fame and Glory, Prix d'Ispahan hero Never on Sunday, Prix Jean Romanet winner Alpine Rose, and Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes winner Virtual among the contenders.  But it was Twice Over rallying to win it at 14-1 odds.

"He's improved with age, and has confidence now," Cecil told The Racing Post after the Champion. 

Q - Can he handle the distance?

A - He's 4-9 at ten furlongs in Europe, and his last three races (all wins) came at the Classic distance.

Q - Will he handle the surface?

A -  Nobody knows.  At 20-1, I'll find out.

Q - Any negatives?

A - He has a bad tendency to drift right during the late stages of his races.  If he pulls that stunt on Saturday, it will cost him.

All in all, we have a European runner in good form that has faced and beaten good horses, loves the distance, and will be a huge price. 

Stranger things have happened, right?

***

This week's special BC HandiGambling is the Classic.  All of the wagers offered on the Classic including Ladies Classic - Classic Double bets are allowed.  Here are the past performances:

Download HandiGambling the Classic

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

Talk to you soon,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman 11/04/2009 05:02:13 PM
Permalink | Comments (141)

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11/02/2009

Lots to cover

Also, with the return to Aqu, I was wondering if you could post some old pp's of some of these warriors: Engine One, Kings Swan, Moro and More to Tell?
Mickey

Here are the past performances.

Download Big A Warriors

On November 12, 1990, I learned a major lession in racetrack humility.  The feature race at the Big A was a $50,000 starter handicap at 1 1/8 miles, and I absolutely loved Joker's Farce, a four-year-old trained by Wayne Lukas.  It was a good field that included Farewell Wave, the third-place finisher of the previous season's Discovery Handicap, but the major attraction (at least from a fan standpoint) was the dean of the local handicap division.  King's Swan was making his 106th lifetime start, and was four years removed from his Grade 1 victory in the Vosburgh Stakes.  In the interim, "The King" had won graded races like the Boojum, Westchester, Aqueduct, Assault (twice), Stymie, Bold Ruler, Tom Fool, and Grey Lag.  Now, at the ripe old age of ten, it looked like King's Swan was getting long in the tooth.  He had lost seven in a row, and Joker's Farce was an in-form youngster. 
I bet the new kid on the block, and began to head for the windows in midstretch when Joker's Farce collared and passed King's Swan.  Chuckling to myself as I counted the winnings in my head, I became disoriented as a huge booming cheer arose from the Aqueduct grandstand.  King's Swan was re-rallying.  The old man wouldn't lie down.  I raced back to the apron, but the sinking feeling in my stomach, the feeling of defeat, was extremely familiar.  It was the same feeling I endured when King's Swan beat back one of my favorite runners, Love That Mac, in 1986.  It was the same nausea I encountered when he wouldn't let Raja's Shark, another favorite, go past him that same year.  When King's Swan wanted to beat you, there was nothing one could do.  No amount of rooting or cheering was going to put Joker's Farce in the winner's circle.  So I kept my mouth shut, and watched in awe as the old-timer did what he loved - win - for the final time in his illustrious career.  The oldtimer shut up a cocky kid that afternoon, and he also shut up Joker's Farce.

***

Here are the lifetime past performances for the highest and lowest Beyer stakes performers of the week:

 Download Tribaldiva

***

Here's another question for you, Dan: Has anyone won the BC Juvy off a msw win, or off 1 start?
slewofdamascus

Let's take a look at the past Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners, their number of races leading up to the BC, and their most recent prep start:

1984:  Chief's Crown - 8 prior races, won Norfolk (1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita)
1985:  Tasso -  6 prior races, won Breeders' Futurity (1 1/16 miles, Keeneland)
1986:  Capote - 3 prior races, won Norfolk
1987:  Success Express - 6 prior races, fourth Norfolk
1988:  Is It True - 5 prior races, second Champagne (1 mile, Belmont)
1989:  Rhythm - 4 prior races, second Champagne
1990:  Fly So Free - 5 prior races, won Champagne
1991:  Arazi - 7 prior races, won Grand Criterium (About 1 mile on turf, Longchamp)
1992:  Gilded Time - 3 prior races, won Arlington-Washington Futurity (1 mile, Arlington)
1993:  Brocco - 2 prior races, won 'n1x' allowance (7 furlongs, Santa Anita)
1994:  Timber Country - 6 prior races, won Champagne (1 1/16 miles, Belmont)
1995:  Unbridled's Song - 2 prior starts, fourth Champagne
1996:  Boston Harbor - 6 prior races, won Breeders' Futurity
1997:  Favorite Trick - 6 prior races, won Breeders' Futurity
1998:  Answer Lively - 6 prior races, second Breeders' Futurity
1999:  Anees - 3 prior races, third Norfolk
2000:  Macho Uno - 3 prior races, won Grey Breeders' Cup (1 1/16 miles, Woodbine)
2001:  Johannesburg - 6 prior races, won Middle Park Stakes (6 furlongs on turf , Newmarket)
2002:  Vindication - 3 prior races, won Kentucky Cup Juvenile (1 1/16 miles, Turfway)
2003:  Action This Day- 2 prior races, won maiden special weight (1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita)
2004:  Wilko - 10 prior races, third Royal Lodge (1 mile on turf, Ascot)
2005:  Stevie Wonderboy- 4 prior races, won Del Mar Futurity (7 furlongs, Del Mar)
2006:  Street Sense - 4 prior races, third Breeders' Futurity (1 1/16 miles on polytrack, Keeneland)
2007:  War Pass - 3 prior races, won Champagne (1 mile, Belmont)
2008:  Midshipman - 3 prior races, second Norfolk (1 1/16 miles, Pro-Ride, Santa Anita)

***

Speaking of nice 2yo fillies, I was at Keeneland Friday and saw a very impressive 2yo filly named Protesting break her maiden for Shug McGaughey.  Check out the replay of the race. I don't know what kind of Beyer she got, but she won easily in her 2 turn debut despite some trouble and drew off to beat a nice field of 2yr olds.
Stewart

Dan,
Could you post the winning Beyer for SWEET SOPHIA on 10/25 at Santa Anita? I had been waiting for her to start and cashed on this debut win which I thought was very impressive.
Kyri

Protesting, a three-quarter sister to Grade 2 winner Parading, earned a 69 Beyer Speed Figure after winning her maiden by five lengths going nine furlongs on Keeneland's polytrack on October 23.

Sweet Sophia, a $150,000 half-sister to Grade 3 winner Fight for Ally by Smarty Jones, received a 72 Beyer Speed Figure for her debut score going down the hill at Santa Anita. 

***

Where on the DRF website will I be able to find an analysis
of the workouts leading up to the Breeder's Cup? If the DRF is going to offer this, will it be in the October 29Th paper edition? Who will be doing it?
chicago gerry

Mike Welsch will be heading the DRF clockers.  You can find the analysis by clicking the following link:

http://www.drf.com/news/content/616.html

***

Could someone post a list of tracks that run a 1 turn mile?? Dirt and Turf please. I like to know for breeders cup handicapping.
Stephanie

The list of one turn miles stands as such:
--Arlington Park (poly only)
--Aqueduct (main/outer dirt track only)
--Belmont Park (dirt course and to an extent, Widener Turf.)
--Churchill Downs (dirt only)
--Colonial Downs (dirt only)
--Gulfstream Park (dirt only)
--Laurel Park (dirt only)
--Woodbine (turf only)
PGM

***

Dan,
Thanks for the heads-up on the future stars.  Gotta love the Stormy Atlantics, such an underrated sire.  A few pp request for you; I'm interested in Midwest mares Heatherten and Sefa's Beauty, and also Sham and Eillo.  Thanks in advance, very much appreciated!
ABZ

Here they are minus Sham (he's a bit too old for our database):

Download Eillo

Download Midwesterners

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What does 2000/1000 Guineas mean and why do multiple tracks have a race by that name?
Captain Bodgit

CaptainBodgit,
The Guinea was a coin. 2000/1000 Guineas was the purse or winner's take of those races when they started, which was a very, very long time ago. The name stuck.

***

Dan,
I've been looking all over the internet trying to find 2010 racing dates for Paris and London area tracks. I'm going over in April and have no idea what, if anything, will be going on. I'd like to check out a couple of tracks around Paris or London but can't find what would be running. Do you know where I could find this?
Thanks!
EnglishChannel

Check out this website for race dates in Britain. 

http://www.ukracingfixtures.co.uk/index.php?id=course&page=chester

I'm still trying to find some more information for French racing.  You might want to look at this sight for more information:

http://www.frbc.net/en-US/racing_hippodromes.php

***

Seing a new thing in DFR's pp's now.  A claiming race will look like this in the running lines Clm 30,000(30,000-25,000)B.  What does the "B" stand for?
Captain Bodgit

The 'B' refers to a beaten claimer.  An example of a beaten claimer would be "for three-year-olds, or for four-year-olds and upward that have never won two races."  In this case, a three-year-old with 20 wins (or any amount of wins) would be eligible to face 'n2L' older runners.

***

Hi, lots of great reading here i see, but someone led me in this direction so i may possibly find out some info on a mare from late 70's early 80s named  End Of The Rainbow who raced @ waterford park. my kids recently purchased me a winners photo of her from jan 1979 thats now on my wall so we were interested in finding out whatever we can about her. what we know is she raced 55 times w/ 7 winners and was bred to 2x. any additional info will be greatly appreciated by my herd and i. thanks for your time!
Richard Omack

Here are the past performances for End of the Rainbow:

Download End of the Rainbow

Here are the past performances of her foals:

Download Rainbow Foals

***

Ok here is another question..lets say a long shot wins the Classic (and RA never exsisted)..who is your HOY then based off the accomplshments of the year? Would you give it to Gio Ponti?, Einstein?, Careless Jewel (with a win), ....or someone else?
Mickey

If Gio Ponti didn't disgrace himself in defeat, I'd probably give it to him. Four Grade 1 victories over a wide array of distances and surfaces would sway me.  But it would be very close with Summer Bird, Zenyatta, and Careless Jewel (with a win in the Ladies Classic).  Of course, this is in the case that Rachel didn't exist.

***

could you post the BC Beyers fromlastyear at SA?
chase clements

Classic:  Raven's Pass - 110
FM Turf:  Forever Together - 105
Juvenile:  Midshipman - 91
Juvenile Fillies:  Stardom Bound - 94
Ladies Classic:  Zenyatta - 103
Mile:  Goldikova - 107
Sprint:  Midnight Lute - 112
Turf:  Conduit - 116
Marathon:  Muhannak - 100
FM Sprint:  Ventura - 105
Dirt Mile:  Albertus Maximus - 102
Juvenile Turf:  Donativum - 93
Juvenile Fillies Turf:  Maram - 87
Turf Sprint:  Desert Code - 101

Congrats to Van Savant for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.  This week's race will be the Breeders' Cup Classic.

 

Posted by dan_illman 11/02/2009 04:47:56 PM
Permalink | Comments (143)

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10/31/2009

Beat the (Weekend) Chalk

Once again, let's try to beat the chalk!

Bold Ruler Handicap - Aqueduct (Race 4)

Past the Point is listed as the 5-2 morning line favorite in this evenly-matched sprint, and I don't really like him at all.  He's only won one of his last eight races, and while you can make legitimate excuses for some of his recent losses (he didn't like synthetics in the Phoenix, San Carlos, San Pasqual, Native Diver; he didn't like Rachel or Curlin in the last two runnings of the Woodward; the pace was too hot in last years's Meadowlands Cup), he didn't impress me when drifting out through the stretch of his 'n3x' victory to kick off this form cycle at Saratoga.  He's been a bit of a "reputation" horse since the Curlin race, and he may be ripe for the pickings this afternoon.  
I'll take a chance with Gold Trippi, a veteran that seems to do better on the smaller NYRA tracks (Aqueduct and Saratoga) than he does on "Big Sandy." (3-6 at Aque-toga while 1-8 at Belmont).  He wasn't disgraced in his last two races at Belmont, however (second to heavily-favored Biker Boy on October 17, second to next-out De Francis runner-up Ravalo on September 25), and he defeated Breeders' Cup bound Pyro (albeit a short Pyro) in the James Marvin Stakes at this distance during the Saratoga meet.  He'll need some pace help, but is capable on his best day. 
Sing Baby Sing (third start following surgery), Cherokee Country (possible lone speed, beat Biker Boy in track record effort two back at Philly Park), and Le Grand Cru (sharp for Allen Jerkens) are also possible alternatives to the favorite.

Before we move on, I'd like to mention an invaluable resource for Breeders' Cup handicapping.  It's the Keeneland Clocker Report at www.keeneland.com.  I've talked about it for the last few years now, and the clockers have been on several live runners.  I know I don't like Past the Point, but the October 26 report noted that he "went well on his own."  There aren't many negative workouts on the report, but a lack of a mention could be construed as a rather blah outing.

Princess Elizabeth Stakes - Woodbine (Race 6)

Ernfold is the deserving 5-2 morning line chalk after finishing a troubled third on grass in the Grade 3 Natalma on September 19 but, as with Past the Point, I didn't like the way she finished up her previous race over polytrack (drifting out during the stretch of the maiden win). 
Perhaps Silent Wisper can make it two in a row for trainer Michael Keogh.  She prompted a moderate pace while three wide last time out, took over in upper stretch from the two path, and kept on in a professional maiden score.  A daughter of Wando, she's really picked up her game since being asked to go around two turns, and may work out a stalking trip in a race with several speeds. 
Roan Inish is a maiden, but she's shipping in from Europe following a Group 3 loss at 6-1, and may offer some value at 12-1 on the line.

Turnback the Alarm Handicap - Aqueduct (Race 9)

It's probably folly to play against Unbridled Belle, the 3-5 morning line favorite who just ran second behind Ladies' Classic-bound Music Note in the Grade 1 Beldame, but Unbridled Belle just hasn't seemed like the same mare over the 2008-2009 seasons that she was when she won the Beldame in 2007.  The folks at Team Valor reportedly tried to breed her twice to A.P. Indy during the spring, and brought her back when the matings didn't catch.  Aside from a big win over sloppy going in the Grade 3 Obeah at Delaware (arguably her favorite surface), she's lost ground from the stretch call to the wire in all of her races this year (albeit against much-tougher competition.  She's obviously the horse to beat, and if they leave her alone on the front end, they're all going to run for second, but if Weathered, who chased hot splits last week against males in the Empire Classic, decides to run with Unbridled Belle, the result could be interesting. 
Use Unbridled Belle in your multi-race plays, but take a chance as well with Way With Words, an improving New Jersey-bred trained by Mary Eppler.  She's won three of her last four dirt starts (only loss in the string came over sloppy going), and has previously used the turf-to-dirt move successfully (Eleven North Handicap win in 2008 came using the angle).  She's 10-1 on the morning line, and had to go pretty fast during the middle portion of the Politely Stakes two back while in the midst of a three-ply pace battle (albeit after chasing a very slow opening quarter-mile). 

Jack Goodman Stakes - Oak Tree at Santa Anita (Race 3)

Macias is the 2-1 morning line favorite, and it looks like she has a good deal of ability, but I'll go with the runner that beat Macias at Del Mar. 
I'll go with Privilaged, a speedy John Sadler-trained ridgeling that wasn't disgraced in his first start against winners here three weeks ago.  After breaking a half-length slowly, Privilaged rushed up to prompt the pace from in between horses, and put both early rivals away before understandably faltering in the stretch.  He'll have to run and gun from the inside post under Joel Rosario, but he may be the speed of the speed, and is worth another chance. 

Bruno De Julio, the top-notch clocker in Southern California (his workout analysis from Today's Racing Digestis available on the DRF homepage), has been impressed with the favorite's recent workouts.  On October 11, he writes that he "loved the way he worked on the grass.  Went off real slow for the first 1/4 and stormed home in 22.4.  Huge, huge late run for two-year-old."  Two weeks later, Bruno noted that Macias "worked strongly and looks real good.  Loved the way he finished."

Fayette - Keeneland (Race 9)

Parading is the morning line favorite at 7-5 based on his solid performances against Grade 1 company in California as well as a big victory over course and distance in the Ben Ali during the spring meeting.  The veteran has done a lot of traveling though, and I wonder if he'll regress shipping back East after a pair of career-best Beyer Speed Figures.  The Keeneland Clocker noted that Parading "went easily, off in 13, and galloped out in 1:01." for the October 26 synthetic drill, but I don't think he's worth a very short price.
Second-choice Blame wouldn't be a big surprise after chasing Breeders' Cup-bound Regal Ransom through ridiculously slow fractions in the Super Derby.  Take what you will from the Keeneland Clocker Reports on Blame:

*October 14:  "Reserved early behind Dr. Hudson, responded when asked, and was well clear at the finish, Theriot up."

Dr. Hudson is a 2-year-old that ran third at 30-1 with a 57 Beyer Speed Figure on October 22.

*October 21:  "Good finish on his own, last eighth in 11 4/5, galloped out 1:26 2/5, and 1:41 1/5, Theriot up."

*October 27:  "Continues to train forwardly, was a neck better than Brazilionaire, both were in hand, Theriot up."

Brazilionaire is a three-year-old maiden claimer with a 62 Beyer top.

My selection to beat the chalk is Public Speaker, a former $50,000 claimer that has won his last two starts, is 4-5 on synthetic surfaces, and "is very sharp right now," according to the Clocker Report for October 18.  Last time out, in the slop at Hawthorne, he was involved in a three-ply pace battle while on the outside, hooked up through a fast middle portion of the race, and still grinded out the victory.  He may be the main speed breaking from the inside post.

On Sunday at Churchill, let's take a shot with Mr. Lukas and Decelerator in the Pocahontas, and Mr. Stidham and Comedero in the Iroquois.

More importantly, who do you like this weekend.  I want to know.

Congrats to Van Savant for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling.  Let's do the BC Classic this week!

Have a great weekend.

Dan

Posted by dan_illman 10/31/2009 08:01:34 AM
Permalink | Comments (165)

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10/28/2009

HandiGambling 157 (Oak Tree)

Today's HandiGambling 157 exercise is the seventh race at Oak Tree, a 'n1x' optional claimer for fillies and mares going one mile on the turf. 

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

#7 Malibu Win is 1 lb. overweight. 

I don't have a strong opinion on this race, and fear that I won't be of much help.  Here goes nothing.

I landed on three contenders.

#3 Mohaka didn't have an easy trip on October 7 going nine furlongs on the Santa Anita lawn.  She was hung three wide every step of the way while chasing soft fractions, put away the two inside pace runners turning for home, and understandably tired in the lane.  She should appreciate turning back in class, and the removal of blinkers could help her relax a bit better in the early portion of the race.  She switches to Garrett Gomez, and may work out a nice stalking trip behind probable pacesetters Malibu Win and My Maloof Rocker. 

#6 Dextera successfully dropped into $50,000 claimers on October 2 over this course and distance with a victory over next-out winner Coatcheck Girl (took a $62,500 claimer as the even-money favorite on October 21 with an 85 Beyer).  She's in sharp form for Jim Cassidy, and should get enough pace to run at during the closing stages.  She does have to step up against older rivals, however.

#7 Malibu Win may be the fastest of the pace runners.  The lightly-raced filly only made her career debut during this summer's Del Mar meeting (she won that day over this distance at 33-1 odds), and she's shown good speed on her two starts against winners.  If apprentice rider Christian Santiago Reyes can get this filly to relax down the backstretch, she may have enough gas left in the tank to make some noise.

As for the others:

#1 Bombina is a European invader, and should be respected as such.  Trainer Kathy Walsh is a very underrated source of solid winners, and she has done extremely well with European imports over the last two years (two starters, two winners with an ROI over $11).  I don't think Bombina faced much overseas, however, and our friends at The Racing Post weren't very impressed with her last run.  Consider this comment:

"It would appear that Bombina needs everything to fall in her favour. She was travelling as well as the winner over 1f out but when Surprise Party edged right into her ground she was unable - or was perhaps reluctant - to commit again. The manner in which her head went back when she was placed under pressure was another negative."

Bruno De Julio, one of the leading clockers in the country, has been impressed by Bombina's recent workouts.  In his daily report for Today's Racing Digest, available on our home page, Bombina "went well here in 1:00 flat, looked good through the stretch, never was asked, and galloped out strong," for the October 17 workout, and "left the half for Walsh and came to the wire in 46.4.  Went to the mile pole in 59.2.  Looked good."

So, we have conflicting opinions on Bombina.  The winner of her last race returned to score again while the runner-up bombed and finished off-the-board in her subsequent start.  Let price be your guide.  She certainly can work out a trip from the rail under Victor Espinoza.

#2 My Maloof Rocker has five lifetime wins, and the rest of the field has seven combined.  She rode a soft pace in a gate-to-wire score last time out, but may have to deal with Malibu Win in the early portion of this race.  De Julio noted that she "went well early in 23.4.  Finished ok down the lane in 48.1.  Was ridden for the last part of the work."  She's in good form, and wouldn't be a surprise for hot barn.

#4 Andalacia scares me a bit in this competitive heat.  She was walked off the track at Del Mar, but returned to finish a rallying third going seven furlongs over the polytrack on September 30.  She can certainly improve in her second start back.  De Julio wrote that she "couldn't stand up on the DMR turf, but went OK here on the pro-ride and finished in 1:02 flat here after splits of 12.4, 37.3 and finished in 49.1 and 1:02 flat.  With Music Magic here."  Music Magic finished second in the Torrey Pines Stakes over the Del Mar polytrack on September 6 with an 82 Beyer.

#5 Fire n' Brimstone has been a bit of a tease.  She runs races fast enough to win this, but often settles for second or third.  Let's toss out the recent run on polytrack, and she only finished two behind Mohaka on September 5.  De Julio mentions the good workout on October 19.  "Worked well  and finished strongly late in 1:00.4 on our watch.  Finished final 1/4 in 24 flat."  A hot pace would help, but she may be best played on the bottom of exotic wagers.

It's a tough race, and one in which I don't have a clever opinion so I won't get cute.

$100 Win - Mohaka (#3)

Best of luck to all.

Posted by dan_illman 10/28/2009 04:27:24 PM
Permalink | Comments (215)

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10/26/2009

Beyers, questions, pp's, etc.

Saw a pretty nice juvenile filly run at Keeneland on Sunday.  Donna Getyourgun, a second-time starter trained by Ian Wilkes and ridden by Julien Leparoux, was an impressive maiden winner of the seventh race.  She earned an 81 Beyer Speed Figure, but received quite an education, and only was asked for run during the final eighth of a mile.  Leparoux rode the Stormy Atlantic half-sister to Clearly a Queen (multiple Grade 3 winner going long on turf) with supreme confidence, sticking her in behind horses until the final furlong before calling on her to kick.  And kick she did, finishing her last eighth in 11.58.  This was her second lifetime start (she finished second in her debut at Arlington), and first with Lasix, and she may be one to watch when the second round of stakes races for juvenile fillies begins at Churchill Downs.

***

As for wagering, as I was answering you I came up with an interesting angle (DAN-CHIP IN ON THIS) If you see a horse second off a layoff who's usual style is to come from off the pace but who showed speed first off layoff, providing there's some "back class" that may be a bettable horse at a nice price?
stephen taylor

It's an interesting angle if you believe that the returning back-classer is using the race as a "workout" instead of a true run.  I'd advise handicappers to watch the rider in this case.  See if the jockey aggressively urges the mount to grab the early lead in the hope of giving the horse a good quarter-mile to three-eighth's test.  As the horse tires from the early effort, watch to see if the jockey takes it easy during the final three-eighths or so.  If the jockey isn't keeping after the mount, one could assume that the race was merely used as a stepping-stone for something down the road.  I'd consider this angle a bit more powerful if the next race coincides with a stretchout in distance.

***

Although I must admit I do not know how many other two year olds have received a 100 BSF or higher this year.
vicstu

Here's the list for 2-year-olds with 100 or greater Beyers in 2009:

*Hot Dixie Chick - July 29 - Saratoga - 103
*Uh Oh Bango - September 18 - Prairie Meadows - 102
*Hot Dixie Chick - June 13 - Churchill Downs - 100
*Jackson Bend - October 17 - Calder - 100

By the way, Mike Welsch is reporting that Jackson Bend will be transferred to trainer Nick Zito after a majority interest in the colt was sold to Bob LaPenta.

***

Dan:
I love your Blog and am an avid follower.
I find the current interest in fillies and mares competing against older top quality males in route races on dirt fascinating.  This, of course brings back memories of some of the tough distaffers from back in the day.  I have long been a fan of Princessnesian, who defeated Racing Room and Quicken Tree in the 1968 Hollywood Gold Cup at 1-1/4M on dirt as a 4 y-o.  Her rival at the time was Gamely, also no stranger to tackling the top males in routes and who finished 2nd to Nodouble in the 1969 Santa Anita Hdcp. with Quicken Tree finishing 3rd.  A few years later, in 1977, the great mare Cascapedia finished 2nd to Crystal Waters in the Gold Cup.
Could you please download their past performances.
LAZMANNICK

I had trouble downloading Princessnesian, but here are the lifetime past performances of Gamely and Cascapedia:

Download Cascapedia

Download Gamely

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Hi Dan
Can't remember where i saw the post and/or comment regarding preps for the Breeder's Cup races pointing out that all winners except midnight lute either won their last two or won one and ran 2nd or 3rd in the other. Please help
Love the education I get on this blog.  Keep it coming.
Thanks
fashion slipper

Here are the last two prep results for the 2008 Breeders' Cup champions:

Classic:  Raven's Pass - 1st Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, 1st Celebration Mile
FM Turf:  Forever Together - 1st First Lady, 3rd Canadian
Juvenile:  Midshipman - 2nd Norfolk, 1st Del Mar Futurity
Juvenile Fillies:  Stardom Bound - 1st Oak Leaf, 1st Del Mar Debutante
Ladies' Classic - Zenyatta - 1st Lady's Secret, 1st Clement L. Hirsch
Mile:  Goldikova - 1st Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, 1st Prix Rothschild
Sprint:  Midnight Lute - 10th Pat O'Brien (only prior start in 2008)
Turf:  Conduit - 1st St. Leger, 1st Gordon
FM Sprint:  Ventura - 2nd Woodbine Mile, 2nd CashCall Mile
Marathon:  Muhannak - 1st Diamond, 1st Betdaq
Juvenile Fillies Turf:  Maram - 1st Miss Grillo, 1st $75,000 maiden claimer
Juvenile Turf:  Donativum - 1st Tattersalls Timeform Million, 1st EBF and EDP Maiden
Dirt Mile:  Albertus Maximus - 3rd Goodwood, 1st Windy Sands
Turf Sprint:  Desert Code, 7th Morvich, 5th Triple Bend

***

Dan, will you please post the pp's for Ramonti, Starcraft and Rikti?
...Dan,or anyone who knows, what were Summer Bird,Tiznow, Baenardini, and Curlin doing between June of their 2yo season and their first race?  Why didn't they run sooner?
...That's why I like the World Thoroughbred Rankings.  They rank all horses by the same number system.  Does Timeform or The Racing Post do ratings for american races/horses?
...Dan, how much better is the racing in Great Britain than the racing in the rest of Europe?
Captain Bodgit

Here they are:

Download Euro milers

Curlin had bucked shins, and Summer Bird had ankle problems while training in Southern California for John Sadler.  Bernardini had undisclosed "minor problems," while Tiznow was injured in training.

The Racing Post has international ratings listed on their website.  Rachel Alexandra is the top "dirt" horse on their system with a 129.  Summer Bird is at 127.  Quality Road and Zensational are listed at 125.  Zenyatta and Bullsbay check in at 124.  For the Euros, Rip Van Winkle is ranked 132 with Mastercraftsman at 129.

In Bet With The Best, Alan Shuback rates European races like this:

A - British G1, French G1, Irish G1
B - British G2, French G2, Irish G2, German G1, Italian G1
C - British G3, French G3, Irish G3, German G2, Italian G2
D - British Listed, French Listed, German G3, Italian G3
E - Irish Listed, German Listed, Italian Listed

I've always believed that horses shipping in from France have a slight advantage over their British/Irish counterparts, but don't have the stats to prove the theory.

***

Now what do you say if Gio Ponti wins the Classic?...That would mean he has faced everyone in front of him ALL year AND included the "super bowl"...which would also mean 5 Grade 1's against the best talent there is.
Dan you can also throw your two cents in this one as well as I would like to see your opinion.
Mickey

A win in the Classic would cap a tremendous campaign for Gio Ponti, but I'm still not sure it would eclipse Rachel Alexandra's historic season.  The BC Classic, Arlington Million, Man o'War, Manhattan, and Kilroe would make a strong top five, but does it match up to a three-year-old filly that won the Woodward, Haskell, Preakness, Kentucky Oaks, Mother Goose, Fantasy, Fair Grounds Oaks, and Martha Washington?  Plus, you'd have to consider Gio Ponti's losses in the Turf Classic and Strub.  Gio Ponti has had a remarkable year.  Rachel had one for the ages.

***

Dan:
You are definitely one of the hardest working men in Win, Place, and Show-Biz.  Thanks again for all you do.  What's the biggest longshot you ever hit (odds-wise, I mean)?
alanh

Last year, I gave out two 52-1 winners at Santa Anita on the live "Out of the Gate" program for the NYC-OTB channel.  Air Commander won the Grade 2 San Fernando on January 12 at $106.40.  On February 16, Turbo Fan won a $25,000 maiden claimer first-out at $106.00.  I bet both to win. 

***

I am an old man, so my memory fails on occasion, but, I could have sworn Just Whistle Dixie scratched out of a race that both she and RA were entered.
...I find it interesting that Capt Candyman Cans' connections will go in the sprint.  I would think he would have went off at lower odds in the mile and I would have given him a better shot at winning.  One way is a furlong short of what I consider his best distance and the other a furlong to long......I am curious though... is this a statement about the connections feelings about their horse or is it more of a statement about how they feel about Zen and Fatal Bullet and a chance at a collapse.  We shall see, any thoughts?..Craig

Justwhistledixie scratched out of the Kentucky Oaks with a foot abscess.

I think the connections are planning on running Capt. Candyman Can in the Sprint due to the fact that the "Dirt" Mile will be contested around two turns.  If this year's BC was at Belmont, we might have seen him in the Dirt Mile, but stretching him around two turns might be a bit much at this point.

***

Dan,
Any shot at posting PP's for Skip Away, Siphon, Sandpit & Alphabet Soup?  Thanks in advance.
Pat Copelan

Here they are:

Download Handicap Stars

***

Dan , could  you download  any  more  of  the  Euros  that  are  coming  over  to  the  BC. I appreciate  the  job  you  do making  PPs  available.
Thanks, again.
C. Warner

Here's what I have for some of the potential European starters:

Download Possible Euros

***

Dan,
I've been feeling a little bit like my old crush horse lately and I was wondering if you could post his PP's. His name was Zippy Chippy. Thanks.
scianc22

Here's what I have for Zippy Chippy:

Download Zippy Chippy

***

Does anyone know if Meadowlands still runs that great Halloween starter handicap where all the horses have to be grey?  If so, I'll have to take a swing next Saturday.
alanh

The Grey Ghost Starter Handicap will be run this Saturday at the Big M.

***

Dan, since you are the king of two-year olds, and since you have to answer this, what did you think of Connemara's win? Am I overstating it? I can take it.
slewofdamascus

This looks like a very serious young horse, and I thank Slew for bringing his name up to the blog.  The race in question is the tenth at Turfway on October 4, a maiden special weight at one mile on polytrack.  It's never easy to win first-out going two turns, but Connemara not only did it, he did it easily after a miserable trip.  He broke ten lengths slow, made this huge six wide midrace move  to contention, took over at will, and accelerated nicely in the final furlong.  The runner-up, another Pletcher-trained baby, returned to win at Keeneland over the weekend with an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. 
He's a half-brother to Lion Heart, the winner of the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity at two, and the Grade 1 Haskell at three, and runner-up to Smarty Jones in the Kentucky Derby.  Another sibling, French Satin, won the Grade 3 Florida Oaks.
He has the pedigree, connections (trained by Todd Pletcher, owned by Tabor, Magnier, and Smith), and seems to have the raw ability necessary to be stakes-class.  By the way, he's now in Southern California (BC Bound?) as he worked five furlongs over the Pro-Ride on October 18 in 1:01.80 handily.

***

Dan,
Do you know if a Kiaran McLaughlin 2 year old named "MUHAASEB" has run since his debut? I think this one might be a derby horse. He ran huge first time out going 5.5f's at Belmont on the 16th of Sept I believe and I haven't seen him run since. Any updates would be appreciated. Thanks.
Causeways37

Muhasseb, a $425,000 yearling by Ghostzapper, is owned by Shadwell Stable.  He made his debut for McLaughlin on September 19, and finished second with a 69 Beyer Speed Figure.  He worked a half-mile at Belmont on October 2, but hasn't been seen since. He's kin to several blacktype earners including Runway Model, the winner of the Golden Rod and Alcibiades as a juvenile filly.

***

Loved this HG race:
The top pick for me would be the #9 Coatcheck Girl:
off the claim..has positional speed...should "relish" this down hill course with plenty of speed to stalk and pounce.
since just betting to win won't win the contest..I have to come up with a exacta or triple so:
how about just a $100 exacta on
#9 Coatcheck Girl with #8 Dash Dot Dash
$100-  9/8
Mickey

Congrats to Mickey for finishing first in last week's HG exercise.  He selects Race 7 at Oak Tree on Wednesday for HG 157.  Here are the past performances:

Download HG157

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

I'd like HG158 to be the BC Classic next Saturday.

***

Here are the lifetime past performances for the highest and lowest Beyer stakes performers of the week:

Download High and Low

***

Talk to you soon.

Dan

Posted by dan_illman 10/26/2009 06:46:09 PM
Permalink | Comments (206)

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10/24/2009

De Francis Dash

After a one-year hiatus, the Grade 1 Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash will be contested this afternoon at Laurel Park.  Once a stepping-stone for champion sprinters Housebuster (118 Beyer in 1991, beating Safely Kept), Cherokee Run (114 Beyer in 1994), Smoke Glacken (110 Beyer in 1997), and Thor's Echo (112 Beyer in 2006), the De Francis is now a potential victim of the calendar as well as Maryland's reluctance to infuse daily purses with slot revenue.  Carded two weeks before the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships, the De Francis remains a Grade 1 race in name only as the creme de la creme of the division opt to run for lots more money, more prestige, and a possible year-end championship at the Breeders' Cup.  

It's sad to see the race lose some of its luster, but perhaps the six-furlong dash can be best-utilized as a prep race for the Cigar Mile, a Grade 1 race around one turn at Aqueduct post-Breeders' Cup.  A move to seven furlongs in the future might attract "tweeners" from the Breeders' Cup (horses that find six furlongs too sharp, and a mile too taxing) as well as aiding "preppers" for the Cigar Mile by only giving them a one-furlong stretchout at Aqueduct.  In an idealistic world, the folks at NYRA could help this race out by partnering with the Maryland Jockey Club in offering a bonus to the horse that sweeps the De Francis and Cigar.  We all know that is an unrealistic hope.

This year's De Francis (Beyer par - 112.06) features Vineyard Haven, a horse that's worn many hats despite only having been to the post six times.  First, he was the precocious dazzler that caught the eye of Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel after an impressive debut score at Calder.  Then, he emerged as a potential Triple Crown hopeful after winning the Hopeful at Saratoga, and Champagne at Belmont.  Then, he was the high-priced flop as he floundered under the desert sun of Dubai after being purchased by Godolphin for a price reported to be in the $10 million range.  Now, he's the comeback kid after finishing first in a gut-busting renewal of the King's Bishop at the Spa, only to be disqualified for impeding Capt. Candyman Can in the waning strides. 
While Vineyard Haven certainly looks imposing as the probable betting favorite, there are some obstacles in his path.  He'll face older horses for the first time in his career, and must break from the inside in a race that features other rivals that will battle for Vineyard Haven's customary spot at the head of affairs.  He's most definitely the horse to beat, and perhaps the speed of the speed, but he may be a bit of an underlay. 

I'll take a chance with Ravalo, a veteran that has won 13 of 27 lifetime starts, and has matured from a speed-crazy youngster into a more professional stalker.  While it could be argued that his favorite surface is at Mountaineer Park in West Virginia, Ravalo did win a minor stakes race at Belmont in nice fashion last time out, and has the ability to sit just off the pace for high-percentage rider Jeremy Rose.  He's 8-1 on the morning line, but I think his fair odds are about half that.

There are some other interesting horses in the field.  Roaring Lion may be breathing down Vineyard Haven's throat down the backstretch, and the Maryland Million Sprint champion has been perfect since returning from a year-plus layoff in July.  Fleet Valid has won four in a row after being claimed for $14,000 by trainer Scott Volk, and enters this off a pair of stakes wins at Monmouth Park.  True Quality won the Grade 2 General George Handicap at Laurel in February, but myriad injuries have relegated him to the sidelines for much of the year.  Peace Chant returned from a shoulder injury to run a better-than-it-looks tenth in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga.  Sacred Journey has won three in a row for Tony Dutrow, and the $325,000 yearling-turned-$30,000 claimer seems back on his best game.  Saratoga Russell once showed immense promise earlier in his career.  And then, there's Ah Day, arguably the patriarch of Mid-Atlantic sprinters, a runner that has suffered from numerous injuries, but always seems to return none the worse for wear.  He goes turf-to-dirt, and always has a puncher's chance. 

As always, the DeFrancis seems to come up a salty race.

More importantly, who do you like this weekend?  I want to know.

Back Monday with weekend Beyers, and tons of questions, comments, and pp requests.

Take care,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman 10/24/2009 10:14:03 AM
Permalink | Comments (178)

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10/21/2009

HandiGambling 156 (Down the Hill)

Today's HandiGambling 156 exercise is the fifth race from Oak Tree at Santa Anita, a $62,500 claimer for three-year-old fillies at about 6 1/2 furlongs on the grass. 

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

There are no changes as of this writing. 

I found this race very challenging, and don't have a ton of confidence in my handicapping.  I narrowed the race down to three strong contenders.

#4 - Salty Sarah is one of only two runners with previous experience over this tricky hillside course, and that could prove key.  She projects for a good trip tracking probable pacesetters #1 - Mary the Princess and #5 - Terrify, and may get first jump on the deep closers turning for home.  The negatives are that she's on an eight-race losing streak, and couldn't do better than third last time out despite a pretty good trip.  Still, when in doubt, trust Go-Go, and Salty Sarah has been facing older runners lately.

#9 - Coatcheck Girl has blown clear leads in her last two races, and looked like a pretty tired filly during the final stages of that mile turf race 19 days ago.  She sat in the garden spot down the backstretch that afternoon, made a three wide burst to the lead turning for home, and looked like she was on her way to a popular victory before being run down late.  She has very competitive Beyer Speed Figures, may apperciate turning back in distance, and will make her first start for John Sadler, a trainer that excels off the claim.

#8 - Dash Dot Dash looks like she's up for sale as it isn't too often that a multiple stakes-winner is placed in a claiming race.  She's only run once since early July, and her lead changes didn't look very smooth during that fifth-place finish in the Sandy Blue Handicap at Del Mar.  She fits from a speed figure and class perspective, but the drop is a bit puzzling.

As for the rest:

#1 - Mary the Princess is taking a huge step up in class after faltering on the dirt at Fresno last time out.  She has a good amount of early speed, but figures to take pressure, and may find these foes a bit too tough.  Her only lifetime wins came in a $8,000 maiden claimer at Golden Gate, and a $4,000 'n2L' at Pleasanton.

#2 - Cornish Rose won her maiden sprinting at Chester, and pulled off a 20-1 upset over Salty Sarah when last in for a tag at Del Mar.  She should get a solid pace to attack this afternoon, and isn't the worst upset stab in the world switching to Mike Smith.

#3 - Ocean Style disappionted as the favorite behind Cornish Rose and Salty Sarah at Del Mar, and hasn't shown much pop in her two subsequent starts over synthetics.  She has the right running style for this race, and is the other runner with previous experience over the course.

#5 - Terrify tired in her first start against winners, and it will be interesting to see how she classes up with these.  Her only win came at 4 furlongs on dirt at Fairplex, and she may be involved in an early battle with Mary the Princess.

#6 - Madeline Ruby drops out of a pair of allowance races going longer, and the sprint-bred filly may appreciate turning back 2 1/2 furlongs this afternoon.  She wheels back on relatively short notice, and should be charging in the stretch.

#7 - Skim Milk needed 12 tries to win her maiden, and did so going 5 1/2 furlongs in a $25,000 maiden claimer.  She ran last in her first start against winners, and failed to crack the trifecta in her three previous starts on grass.

#9 - Yodelady O tries turf for the first time after finishing a rallying third in her first start of the form cycle.  She can improve in her second start back, and will be the better price of the two Sadler runners.

Here's how I'll play it:

$100 Win - Salty Sarah (#4)

Best of luck to all.

Posted by dan_illman 10/21/2009 04:31:27 PM
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