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FormBlog | June 05, 2007
Rags to Riches, C P West, fillies, more Euro sites
According to TPI (Todd Pletcher Inc.), Rags to Riches is going in the Belmont, and he's convinced Johnny Velazquez to take off Slew's Tizzy for the mount (let's add Rafael Bejarano to Slew's Tizzy). Also, C P West has been added to the field by Nick Zito.
We've looked at some pedigree stats for Curlin, Hard Spun, Slew's Tizzy, and Tiago. Today, let's continue with Rags to Riches and C P West
Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy - Better Than Honour, by Deputy Minister)
A.P. Indy won the Belmont Stakes in 1992, and is widely considered as one of the best stallions in the world. Among his long-distance winners (10 1/2 furlongs and upward) is Jilbab (winner of the Coaching Club American Oaks at 1 1/2 miles), and he has sired Belmont Stakes runner-ups Aptitude and A P Valentine. A. P. Indy's sire and broodmare sire both won the Triple Crown.
Rags to Riches is a half-sister to Belmont Stakes winner Jazil.
A.P. Indy's stud record at 1 5/16 miles and upward:
166 performers, 57 winning performers, 774 starts, 105 wins, 69 seconds, 77 thirds, 14% winners
A.P. Indy's stud record at 1 1/2 miles:
81 performers, 14 winning performers, 127 starts, 15 wins, 15 seconds, 11 thirds, 12% winners
Deputy Minister record as broodmare sire at 1 1/2 miles:
95 performers, 21 winning performers, 310 starts, 35 wins, 30 seconds, 28 thirds, 11% winners
C P West (Came Home - Queen's Legend, by Dynaformer)
Came Home won nine races between 5 furlongs and 1 1/4 miles including the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. Came Home's sire, Gone West, is the sire of Belmont winner Commendable.
Queen's Legend won her maiden going 1 1/2 miles on grass, and is from the female family of Belmont winner Damascus.
Came Home stud record at 1 5/16 miles and upward:
3 performers, 2 winning performers, 6 starts, 2 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds, 33% winners
Came Home stud record at 1 1/2 miles:
3 performers, 2 winning performers, 6 starts, 2 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds, 33% winners
Dynaformer record as broodmare sire at 1 1/2 miles:
16 performers, 2 winning performers, 27 starts, 2 wins, 3 seconds, 3 thirds, 7% winners
Tomorrow, we'll look at Time Squared and Imawildandcrazyguy
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Hey Dan,
I'd like to open a discussion about Rags to Riches. I'm really hoping that Pletcher follows through and runs her. I'm a huge Curlin fan, but I think RtR has an excellent shot to pull the upset. I loved the manner in which she won the Oaks--apparently toiling, but ultimately dominating away effortlessly. It was a race I can see her moving forward from. Both her breeding and the way she runs lead me to believe she'll love the mile and a half more than any of them. Plus, she comes into this fresh. Will I get 4-1 if she goes?
Aaron
Let's talk about fillies in the Belmont. Here is an example of how statistics may be misleading. There will be some people who mention the stat that no filly has won the Belmont since Tanya in 1905. While that's true, there haven't been many fillies that ran in the race, and the overall winning percentage is quite reasonable.
Here are the fillies that attempted the "Test of the Champion" along with their finish position.
1867 - Ruthless - 1st
1868 - Funny Ludlow - 3rd
1869 - Invercauld - 3rd
1869 - Viola - 7th
1870 - Midday - 3rd
1870 - Nellie James - 4th
1870 - Stamps - 6th
1871 - Nellie Gray - 4th
1871 - Mary Clark - 9th
1885 - Miss Palmer - 9th
1905 - Tanya - 1st
1905 - Funders - 7th
1913 - Flying Fairy - 3rd
1923 - Miss Smith - 8th
1927 - Flambino - 3rd
1932 - Laughing Queen - 10th
1954 - Riverina - 7th
1980 - Genuine Risk - 2nd
1988 - Winning Colors - 6th
1996 - My Flag - 3rd
1999 - Silverbulletday - 7th
(Source: Belmont Stakes Media Guide)
Overall, there have been 21 filly starters in the Belmont with 2 winners (9.5%), 1 second, and 6 thirds. The in-the-money percentage is 43%.
Not only has Rags to Riches shown a great deal of talent, but she obviously has the pedigree to handle the demanding distance. Her connections are first-rate, and she's fresh (only one start since March, and two since February). She has a shot, but the key as to whether you're supposed to bet her is her odds. Now, will you get 4-1? I'm thinking Curlin will be in the 6-5 range. Hard Spun and Rags to Riches may be vying for second choice between 7-2 and 9-2. It will be interesting to see how the odds play out. If she's an underlay, you have to pitch her. On the other hand, she's somewhat intriguing at overlaid odds.
What do you think the final odds will be, and what is your value line for the race?
***
Hey Dan,
racingpost.com isn't what it once was. It was nice when they let you watch race replays for free, but now you have to set up an account and pay. It's harder to find race charts, etc since they updated the site about a year ago. I find youtube is actually a decent place to find replays, even for Euros.
C
C, thanks for reminding me about youtube. Last year, I posted some key European prep races leading up to the Breeders' Cup from youtube, and that's probably the best source to actually seeing the races. The Racing Post had free replays on a trial basis, and now it's pay per race. Still, I like their elongated charts with detailed trip and race notes, and the news section is excellent if you want to keep up with European racing. Here are some other international racing sites I would recommend:
http://www.irish-racing.com/
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/
http://japanracing.jp/
http://www.emiratesracing.com/era/index.cfm
***
...On a totally randome thought, anyone remember the filly Composure??? If there was one filly that could have beaten the best boys of her generation I thought it was her. One of the strongest fillys I have ever seen...
Jason
In case anyone forgot about Composure, here are her lifetime past performances:
More tomorrow.
Take it easy,
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on June 5, 2007 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
Dan thanks for the past performances on Composure. She was my derby horse that year, minimum oaks but I'm pretty sure her connections were thinking derby. I thought she was special.
On Rags to Riches. Look at the 4 fillys that have started in the Belmont since 1980. Those are 4 Hall of Fame caliber fillies. And none of them could come close. Dan do you have the past performances of those 4 fillies including beyers to compare to Rags? Might be helpful. To me, she's not in that caliber, but maybe I'm wrong. I don't give her much of a chance at all.
Someone else told me on here that I'd be lucky to get 1/2 on Curlin, Dan you said around 6/5. Curious what others think.
I really think I'll get 7/5 or even 8/5. The $2 betters that don't know anything will bet on the filly for sure, she's going to take a lot of money IMO. 4/1 minimum, I think she'll be second choice at around 5/2 though. You can't underestimate hype, and she'll get all the hype going into this race and on tv that day.
Hard Spun will be third choice, but will have competition with Tiago. There are a ton of people that hammered Tiago in the Derby and loved him, why wouldn't those same people be even more in love with him at a 1 1/2 after skipping the Preakness. I would wager Tiago will be 6/1 or lower.
If you have a 5/2, and two horses around 4/1 or 5/1 then it will be hard for Curlin to be even money. I think I have a shot to get the 8/5. If Street Sense were in the race, he'd get hammered, but you got to remember, not as many people pay attention to the Preakness and aren't attached to Curlin. Plus Curlin only won by a nose. I think there are plenty of skeptics that will take a stand against him, both real handicappers and the $2 betters that don't know what they are doing.
I expect to get 8/5, and I will hammer Curlin at that price.
The one horse I put in the don't need to mention category that shouldn't be is Zito's horse. CP West made a nice move in the Preakness and got tired. I think he's sitting on a nice effort, he's bred for this, and he could improve here. He's my choice for 2nd. And I'll use him in all the exotics. Will be Curlin on top, CP West in Second in exactas, and in tris and supers I'll put the rest of them underneath those two.
I'm getting excited now. Something special is going to happen Saturday. I hope you all watch it, Curlin is going to do something so freakish you all will be talking about it for a month. I'm telling you people this is the one.
Peace
Posted by: Jason on June 05, 2007 at 04:58 PM
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In his essay "Why Curlin Won't Win," James Quinn makes this excellent point:
"The case against Curlin can be more compelling than the prerace discourse will admit. The colt has run only five times, all of the races crowded into the interval since the maiden debut of Feb. 3. The first three were easy enough, but the final two were exhausting, which is enough to provoke a reversal of form. Curlin won the Preakness gamely, but all out, overextended, and he was hard-used throughout after stumbling at the start. The colt did not take the final turn without bearing out, and he coursed through the stretch on the wrong lead.
If jockey Robbie Albarado had not shifted his weight repeatedly and cleverly to force his colt to switch leads, Curlin would not have prevailed. The post-race commentary would have focused on his liabilities instead of his assets. Needless to say, if the troubled trip is repeated, even in part, the Belmont distance will wreak its ultimate havoc."
While it's easy to understand the hype we've seen surrounding Curlin, the pre-Belmont chatter has gotten delusional. Curlin may win this race, but it won't be in record fashion or in Secrateriat's company. I mean really. Let's get a grip.
I tried to make the point earlier about Curlin's "issues" coming into this race, and James Quinn has set it to paper better than I could have. I recommend reading it.
Curlin will be an underlay to win the Belmont, plain and simple. I have zero problem taking the negative view here.
He's not up against a bunch of stiffs. Career efforts could be forthcoming from a number of horses, including Slew's Tizzy, Tiago, Rags to Riches, Imawildandcrazyguy, CP West. Any of these could move up and several have Belmont stamina coursing through their veins. Curlin will be facing pressure in the early, middle, and late stages.
So, it is even money or worse that he can overcome each and every challeng at 1 and 1/2 miles? Wow. The bet as I see it, is: even money or less that Curlin is a Superhorse. I know that's an easy choice for some, but what about for the non-delusional set?
For them, for us, it should be an easy choice. The only question is who.
-Slew
Posted by: SlewofDamascus on June 05, 2007 at 05:08 PM
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I expect the racing public's almost morbid fascination with all that is Pletcher, Inc. to continue, and I fully expect RTR to edge out HS for 2nd choice by post. But as I said in my last post, I expect HS to be second choice by the Belmont oddsmaker m/l.
Fillies have historically had a hard time winning in this race, although some have hit the board. I like RTR but to me she is a step below KD winner Winning Colors (who finished 6th in Belmont). Someone here tell me WHY she has a better shot than Winning Colors to win? Other than the top 3 horses that year, the rest of that field was not even on a par with this field.
Why does everyone go on and on about how horse A passed horse B, or how horse B tired at 9 or 10 furlongs, and how horse B should not be in the Belmont? That is how a novice to the triple crown might think, so what gives? Historically, closers such as Jazil rarely win the Belmont, as it is a track and a race that favors speed, tactical speed and calculated stamina. Rarely, if ever, to closers possess all three of the above, and when they win the Belmont, it is usually due to a breakdown in the early pace...For me, the key question in this race is if Curlin is ready for a bounce and if he will be forwardly placed by the 1/2 mile mark, as almost 70 percent of Belmont winners have been 4 lengths or less off the pace at that juncture...and many, like Riva Ridge, Secretariat, S Slew, Affirmed, Bold Forbes, Swale and others simply wired the field...while numerous others such as Danzig Connection, Bet Twice, Risen Star, AP Indy, Touch Gold, COmmendable, Point Given, and even Empire Maker and Afleet Alex were 4 lengths or less from the lead after the 1/2 mile mark. Many were just off the pace...
So, while it might seem knowledgeable or the in-thing to sit and compare A to B from race C, its like apples to oranges in this race, and historically it just does not play out that way...it is hard to run down the pace at Belmont, just like it was hard at Keeneland before it went Polytrack. That is why a typical closer in the lesser distances like Secretariat made sure he was on or near the lead by the 1st turn...and nothing has really changed since then except the runners are no where near as hardy.
So to me, all this talk about HS tiring off a hot pace and finishing third in the Preakness, and how this means he will not get 1-1/2 even though fractions will be slower, sounds much like what was being said about Afleet Alex, Bold Forbes or Danzig Connection...
History has shown that the horse's pedigree is just as accurate of an indicator of stamina as how a horse ran at 1-3/16 miles. Apples to oranges...and that same HS worked his way to the lead in the Derby, earned and kept the lead through tough early fractions, to settle down through the backstretch only to seperate himself in the stretch and finish almost 6 lengths in front of everyone else besides SS at 1-1/4 miles. That was HARDLY an ideal trip, as Andrew Bayer and Mike Watchmaker have both said, it was a grueling trip in which HS showed both heart and stamina. It needs to be remembered that SS only ran 6 furlongs that day, as Natzfer admitted after the race, and had a perfect rail ride to the line (more power to him)...But still, the Belmont is a race where a horse needs to be pacing not too far from the lead after the 1/2 mile position, on a track where speed carries supreme (remember Bold Forbes and Commendable). How many times did Commendable get passed in his earlier races? He was run down often, and yet those same late speed runners and late stalkers could not run that one down Belmont day at 1-1/2 miles...
Just thought that this Belmont discussion needs to be brought into historical and factual focus, here. You are going to be hating life if you think the Belmont always plays out like the other two legs of the TC....
think speed, tactical speed, jockey and price (along with pedigree). And although I am not yet predicting any HS or Slew's Tizzy victory here, I note that his sire's 18 percent success rate at 1-1/2 mile is the best in this field to my knowledge, and his broodmare's side of the pedigree is sheer stamina. I do not know how that one will run, but at his price (I predict 4-1) along with how he fits the profile of the typical Belmont winner will make him a sure play for me this Saturday, both on top and bottom of my bets. Curlin will simply be untouchable at his odds although he may well win if he can get up on the pace early enough and not tire.
Posted by: svhill on June 05, 2007 at 05:38 PM
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Slew after you cry foul when you think I question your character now you call me and the people that think Curlin is a superhorse "delusional"??
Wow that does say a lot about your character.
There is a case to be made against Curlin. I for one haven't denied that. I have a logical case too though, I have shown evidence that he might indeed be a superhorse.
To say that people that believe this horse is special are dilusional is ridiculous. And to try to portray yourself as some kind of maverick because you don't like the horse in the Belmont is what I would call dilusional. Read this blog, who else but me and maybe one other guy are touting Curlin as a superhorse??? Everyone is taking Hard Spun, Rags, or Tiago on this forum and no one else is making the case that this horse is very special at all.
In fact all you hear is Curlin is a nice horse, but I'm going to try to beat him in the Belmont. Your position is the one of the masses here Slew. Mine is a bold prediction.
Disappointed you would go this route after making such a big fuss about respect.
Don't get me wrong, I don't care if you call us Curlin fans dilusional all day. Stuff talking doesn't matter to me, I'm from the neighborhood, I would have it no other way. But it's a little hypocritical coming from the guy that is so quick to play the respect card.
Good luck to those that take their stand against Curlin, you'll need it this Saturday to beat em.
Posted by: Jason on June 05, 2007 at 05:54 PM
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Excellant post, Slew. Where can we find this essay...? I too think the pre Derby hype regarding Curlin has gotten way out of hand, bordering delusional. With so much strong speed and tactical speed in this race (HS, Slew's Tizzy, possibly RTR or CP West not far behind) Curlin will need to be at that 1/2 mile mark within 4 lengths to win...although I still think a bounce won't land him worse than 3rd or 4th. My concerns are his ridiculously overbet odds and his ability to run near the pace or even run near the lead to the first turn. There is not much cheap speed here (except maybe Digger, who will not be running any 44 1/2 mile--see past performance chart), so Curlin needs to be within a shout as they turn for home. Horses simply do not have the same kick at the top of the stretch in the Belmont, the extra 1/4 mile compromises that factor routinely, so he needs to be sharp and on top...he has the bullseye, so, we will have neither Derby Curlin in this race (well beaten by both SS and HS in stretch) or Preakness Curlin (lumbering out of 2nd turn only to gamely run down SS). No, instead we will have Belmont Curlin at the Belmont, but will that be enough to win, and will he be fresh after the last 5 weeks? At his obvious low odds, a case can be made against him--I will make him beat me. At least the race is more interesting now with RTR and CP West here, with the ever popular Zito and the ever stoic Pletcher at the track on raceday.
BTW, Dan, did you read where Digger's owner is offering $10K of his own moolah to Calvin Borel or Mario Pino (Derby riders of SS and HS)to ride Digger? Seems he cannot find a jock, and although he seems off his rocker, he is starting to become a symphathetic figure...what to make?
Posted by: vicstu on June 05, 2007 at 05:58 PM
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My rough approximation as to everyone's odds come Belmont post-time
Curlin: 4-5
Rags to Riches: 3-1
Hard Spun: 7-2
Tiago: 8-1
I'mawildandcrazyguy: 8-1
CP West: 10-1
Slew's Tizzy: 12-1
Digger & Time Squared: 30-1
I actually think the overlay play is Slew's Tizzy, who won't get a ton of respect despite running two very good races in a row for an underrated trainer.
Posted by: El Angelo on June 05, 2007 at 05:58 PM
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Hey Dan,
Just watched another impressive 2yo winner from freshman sire, Kafwain - Kadira won a msw at Churchill Downs this weekend and this afternoon, Rasierra won at Prarie Meadows easily. Rasierra was a Group 2 OBSAPR horse with a 25.05SL. I thought I'd make a great score when I saw the ML at 8/1 - however, she opened up at 1/9, and slowly drifted to 8/5 by post time - luckily, I still decided to bet on her despite the underlay.
Kafwain looks like a great freshman sire, particularly for first-time starters - how can I do a watch list for all Kafwain-sired firsters so I can continue to bet on them?
Posted by: Alan on June 05, 2007 at 06:09 PM
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This would be my "public" morning line:
Curlin - 3/2 (40%)
Hard Spun - 3/1 (25.00%)
Rags to Riches - 4/1 (20.20%)
Slew's Tizzy - 8/1 (11.11%)
Tiago - 10/1 (9.09%)
Imawildandcrazyguy - 12/1 (7.69%)
CP West - 15/1 (6.25%)
Time Squared - 50/1 (1.96%)
Digger - 100/1 (0.99%)
M/L equals roughly 120%
My Value line would look something like this:
Curlin: 2-1
Hard Spun - 4/1
Rags to Riches - 4/1
Tiago - 8/1
Slew's Tizzy - 10/1
CP West - 15-1
- Slew
Posted by: SlewofDamascus on June 05, 2007 at 06:18 PM
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I won't get into the Curlin debate, but since someone brought up James Quinn I thought I'd put in an endorsement for a book that was vital in aiding in my quest to become the amazing handicapper I am (no snickering please) The Handicapper's Condition Book by James Quinn. My grandfather, a much better handicapper than I who from time to time will still tell the story of the Arcangues-Bertrando exacta that bought my grandmother a new kitchen, gave me this book when I first became interested and what a difference it made. I don't know if it has been updated since (I have the version from 1986) but it still holds up pretty well. I especially benefitted from the section on Maiden Claimers which is wonderful and tremendously fun in that you learn to toss the most impressive horses. It's really worth a read.
On a completely different note, am I the only one who wants to get a hot maiden tip from Dan from time to time? I appreciate the picks on the weekend stakes, but you're the maiden guru, how about you throw us loyal fans a hot pick?
Posted by: DManCPR on June 05, 2007 at 07:07 PM
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Editor's Note, Victory Gallop, and Lemon Drop Kid closed from far back, didn't they? Every race is different and is shaped by the horses running and several other circumstances. I think it's a mistake to develop notions based on history and come up with rules like 'closers are doomed', etc. If a horse is good enough to overcome whatever obstacles get in his way on that particular day, they can win, regardless of anything else. Races are independent events and the dirt on the track is like a roulette wheel with no memory. Just my opinion, I'm sure many will disagree.
This raises a good debate... how much does track bias matter? does it even exist, or is it all just perception?
In my opinion, the days of track bias, IN GENERAL, are long gone. Horses near the front of 1 1/2 mile races (dirt or turf) can take advantage of an easier pace and win, if they're fit enough. The prevalance of fowardly-placed runners winning in the Belmont is probably due more to their ability to relax early near an easy pace and sprint home than a bias at Belmont. But to the betting public, perception is everything.
Every time I'm at the track, I hear people gabbing about how good the rail is or how speed will hold up, etc... after 1 race!! If a 2nd front-runner wins, the gabbing turns into yelling- 'bet speed all day long!', 'the track is souped up!', 'Good rail!', 'Dead rail!', the list goes on. The screamers never stop to consider that both winners were standouts anyway. Even well-respected pros that write weekly track trend articles say silly things like '5/7 main track races were won on the lead, so the main track may have been speed-favoring.' The truth is, North American dirt racing naturally favors speed anyway. MOST horses are trained to break their herd instinct and race in front of others. When they do get the lead, they usually have the rail (shorter trip) too, and the others need to run farther and faster in the late stages to beat them. If they're fit and good enough, they have no excuse- at any venue. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Dan, what are your thoughts on the importance of track bias today?
C
Posted by: C on June 05, 2007 at 07:32 PM
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In his May 24 blog Dan gave us some Belmont patterns, and I made this comment which I repeat (edited for current events) here given C P West is back in the hunt. Only Curlin, C P and Times Squared have the Mr P line on top, and I'm going in C P's direction on Saturday:
Dan- Another common trait amongst recent Belmont winners is the presence of Mr. Prospector in the top line. From your list all but Colonial Affair, Tabasco Cat, Touch Gold and Sarava emerge from the Mr. P line- that's 8 of the last 9 and 10 of the 14 winners you list. The Belmont looks right up Curlin's alley as he has Mr. P on top and Northern Dancer on bottom (Jazil, Birdstone, Empire Maker and Victory Gallop all have this pattern). I realize the Mr. P (or Raise a Native) and Northern Dancer cross is very popular, but the trend seems at least interesting. Of the longer prices, CP West has Mr. P through Came Home/Gone West and a dual-dose of stamina on the bottom through Dynaformer and Hawaii. I don't know if that pedigree plus another 5/16ths is enough to pick up 6 lengths but at 15-1 or so I am willing to find out.
Posted by: Al Hattab on June 05, 2007 at 08:16 PM
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Jason,
I have to admit when I read your 2:53 post on "Beyers, Roman, Frankie" I thought it was representative of other comments I have read on the web regarding Curlin's impending stroll to Greatness. I thought it was unreasonable.
I probably shouldn't have used delusional as an adjective to describe the phenomena. And I aplogize, I could have been far more tactful I now see.
Let's not forget what they said about the guy who said the world was round or the guy who claimed that the earth was not the center of the universe. Delusional epitaphs were only the beginning of the criticism each endured.
I agree completely that, in my opinion, your prediction is beyond the norm. And I have always believed that boldness often wins the day.
However, Jason, Curlin will be heavilly favored by the public, so it's fair to say that the highest percentage of support in this race belongs to Curlin. Choosing Curlin to win is not a bold take. But, you are not just predicting a win, you are predicting something
"special" and a "romp" that is "better than the Preakness." I would not argue with anyone who said that was bold.
When you follow that up with Tiago having the same chance as you winning the Belmont ("he has as much chance as I do to win the Belmont'), I start to get the overall sense of someone who might be letting his desire to be right about Curlin overcome all reason. And when you dismiss Rags To Riches and Hard Spun out of hand, it really confirms that suspician.
Every indication has Tiago runningg the best race of his life; his works are outstanding, and like Curlin he had a poor break in the Derby but was running late (and yes his gallop out was noteworthy). Unlike Curlin he's fresh. He's dangerous. Slew's Tizzy - how could one ask for a horse to be coming into the race better? Talk about an improving track, that horse has improvement emblazoned on his forehead (and he may be, as someone so rightly pointed out, the true value in the race). I could go on about Rags to Riches and Hard Spun and CP West, but what's the point, when the point is obvious that these horses represent true competition for Curlin.
What I don't understand is, on the one hand you insist that Curlin is going to do something out of this world on Saturday, but on the other hand, his competition stinks or is non-existent. That doesn't make sense. At races every day around the world horses win by umpteen lengths when they have it all over the field just as you think Curlin has it all over this field. So how does that make him special, assuming he does beat these by "5 lengths"? Isn't that what he's supposed to do given the Belmont Stakes pretenders and frauds that that you seem to think are running against him?
If you took offense to my comment, which was to bring attention to James Quinn's article (which can be found on the DRF homepage under DRF+ content), and to offer my retort to the Curlin hooplah, which - believe me - has plenty of fans who are equally single-minded in their passionate belief in this horse as you are, I apologize. I can sincerely say that it was not directed at you personally, but at people like you who seem unable to look at the facts rationally. I shouldn't have used the word delusional.
In any event, I apologize if you were offended, and hey if Curlin does win, even by a nose, I'll be the fist to offer congratulations to his backers.
Good luck.
- Slew
Posted by: SlewofDamascus on June 05, 2007 at 08:53 PM
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Track Bias--I have witnessed to many races/full cards not to believe that certain "biases" occur on the track that favor a certain running style or path on the track. Does this occur naturally or does the track maintenance personnel create this scenario? It's just another variable in the handicapping equation. If you can recognize this trend as it develops, you can possibly benefit from the underlying trend developing-not easy to do and does this trend carryover to the next day? What about polytrack?-Nobody wanted the lead at Lexington for many days early in the meet--no committed front runner won for days. It balanced out near the end of the meet. I personally think any track bias just make this game that much harder and under ideal situations, the track would always play fair for all the runners. For Churchill to have an inside glib/bias on racings biggest day--should be a crime-Last year's BC. I mean, trainers like Doug O'neal joking that he should sell his inside post position before the race isn't good. Do I watch the earlier races before wagering, you bet I do. Man made biases at the track is almost akin to insider trading on wall street, those who know, benefit.
Also, Great Horses tend to overcome biases.
PS. Rags to Riches Beyer's continue to go up as the distance goes longer-of course she's getting better also. At least we have a race with RTR and CP making seven horses.
Posted by: Andrew Carpenter on June 05, 2007 at 10:01 PM
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earlier, I mentioned Editor's Note, Victory Gallop, and Lemon Drop Kid. Throw in Jazil, and that's 4 deep closers in about 10 years, assuming I'm not forgetting anyone. Keep in mind, Empire Maker beat a 6 horse field: it's hard to 15 lengths behind in that kind of race. So, IF history tells us anything (I stress 'if'), it'll say that neither closers nor stalkers have any real advantage in the Belmont. So why be biased (no pun) against ANY running style?
C
Posted by: C on June 05, 2007 at 10:03 PM
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This Belmont is very wide open. Curlin is a nice horse, but he is no monster, certainly not yet. His speed figs are nice, but they are not mind boggling. Silver Charm, Freehouse and Touch Gold all ran faster Derby's/Preakness's, TG was not in the Derby. This is a nice horse, but to even try to claim he's some miracle horse is silly. He might take anotherstep forward and trounce this field. I would also not be surprised at all if Hard Spun turns the tables on him by setting easy fractions and then turning it into a 3/8ths sprint for home. I'm guessing Gomez will try to wire this field, establish a clear lead early at modest fractions, slow it down more going down the backstretch and then open him up coming out of turn 2. Watch out for Tiago, this horse IMO is a very dangerous animal. His Derby trip was far from ideal, he wisely skipped the Preakness and he'll be rolling late.
Posted by: Kotashaan on June 05, 2007 at 10:40 PM
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Hi Andrew,
This is not a popular opinion, but I have to disagree with you about last year's BC:
1: re-watch the Sprint. Thor's Echo may have broken out of post 1, but he was 3 wide for the majority of that race.
2: In the JvF, Dreaming of Anna was a wire-to-wire winner, and was much the best anyway, so it's hard to say the track played a role. She had a speed and pace advantage above all else.
3: As for the Juv, we later saw how good Street Sense really is. His later races validated his BCJ. He made the exact same move in the Derby 6 months later.
4: In the Distaff, Round Pond won on the rail, but Asi Siempre and Happy Ticket closed ground in the middle of the track. Invasor and Bernardini were also in the middle of the course in the Classic, although they were best anyway.
That's the thing with track bias-- it's totally impossible to know how much the track carries these horses, if at all. I actually think the CD main track was pretty fair on BC day, contrary to 98% of the popular opinion.
C
Posted by: C on June 05, 2007 at 10:43 PM
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I think HS is a very dangerous on a loose easy lead horse this weekend. He'll be permitted to set easy early fractions and will be hard to collar late. Tiago is my pick. He had a less than ideal Derby trip, wisely skipped the Preakness, has trained superbly for this and should be rolling bigtime late.
Posted by: Kotashaan on June 05, 2007 at 10:44 PM
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Curlin has a natural opening half mile cruising speed in the 48 second range. This is how he ran his routes prior to the Derby. The Derby race is a tossout. The preakness opening half was unusually fast you would expect him to be well off of that pace. On Belmont day the only chance HS will have is to run a reasonable opening half mile in the 48 second range (if he runs much faster than this he'll be toast by the end of turn 2. Belmont opening half miles are seldom run faster than 48 seconds, in fact they are often run in the 49 second range. If HS does that you can rest assured Curlin will be no more than a few lengths off of him, probably less than 3. This horse has a very natural opening 48 half cruising speed, he will not be runnnig as a deep closer unless HS does something silly pacewise early or Curlin is wiped out at the start. Neither of which I expect to happen.
Posted by: Kotashaan on June 05, 2007 at 11:03 PM
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I believe the post time odds will be something like:
Curlin: 3/5
Hard Spun: 3/1
Rags to Riches: 7/2
Tiago: 7/1
Imawildandcrazyguy: 9/1
Slew's Tizzy: 11/1
CP West: 14/1
Digger: 60/1
I believe fair odds are more like:
Curlin: 1/1
Hard Spun: 10/1
Tiago: 8/1
RTR: 15/1
..crazyguy: 18/1
Slew: 20/1
CP West: 30/1
Digger: 1000/1
I do not know if Curlin is a 'freak' or 'superhorse', but his beyers and the fact that he won the Preakness whil still racing somewhat green (which indicate he may still get better!!!) all make him the obvious horse to beat. Several posters have predicted 3/2 or 8/5 on Curlin and I believe that those bloggers are 'delusional' (whether they are supporting Curlin or are playing against him). This horse will go off at even money or less......That is something I am willing to bet a lot of money on. The question is whether I think his odds are offering good value and I probably would say only if he is 1/1 or 6/5 which is not likely IMO. My fair odds might seem to be high on some of the others but I just think they reflect my opinions on those horses. Hard Spun has had his chances and to me has proven to be just a cut below. RTR has never faced this good of a field or the boys. I think CP and Tizzy would both have to improve greatly and are a notch below also. Tiago and 'crazy' are also a notch below, but IMO are the most likely to show the necessary improvement to potentially upset. Tiago won the Grade 1 SA Derby (although against a weak field) and did not have a good trip in the KY Derby, but still was running at the end. 'Crazy' showed a lot of improvement in the KY Derby and if he takes another step up can be dangerous. Both are taking a proven route to the Belmont via the KY Derby and skipping the Preakness. Curlin could tire and succumb to an ambitious campaign (for a horse who just broke his maiden approximately 4 months ago), but the same thing could be said before the Preakness. Based on what I have stated, this is probably a good race to pass on, but since it is the Belmont, I (like most who visit this site) will be making some investment on this race and in the multirace exotics. I will probably key Curlin and throw Tiago into the mix.
Posted by: Dale on June 06, 2007 at 12:40 AM
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C,
Some times it seems as though you like arguing for arguments sake, ever thought of becoming a lawyer? I am in law school now and I have a classroom full of adversarial turn-of-minds who seem to relish arguing almost as much--this is a compliment...
However, as to the issue of what type of running style wins the Belmont, Belmont Stakes own media guide states that the race has traditionally favored speed and front runners because of the relaxed pace...and the fact that Jazil, LDK, Editor's Note and Victory Gallop have won in the last 11 years is still less than the 7 others who have won at or near the pace during that time. Go back to 1971, year-by-year through the Belmont Media Guide, and you will see that more horses have gone wire to wire in the Belmont than have won it coming from the clouds. Jay Cronely from ESPN, an avid handicapper and someone who grew up around Belmont, said it best in his June 5th blog, entitled "Third Times a Charm":
"There is the powerful illusion that classic closers have a good chance to win the Belmont Stakes. Handicappers who have seen it all...still (somehow) honestly think that if a horse closes well at a mile, and passes even more horses at a mile and one-eigth, then (that horse) will be just the ticket a a mile and a half. Just the opposite is usually true. The longer the race, the slower the pace, the less likely the leaders are to back up. Check the fractions. Check the charts. At a mile and a half, when the closers turn for home at Belmont Park, they'll start wondering where everybody went."
That about sums it up. Notice the words "usually" and "majority" when used describing what running style usually wins at Belmont. Not "always", but "usually" or a "majority". The fact that 4 closers have won out of the last 11 races is still a minority of winners...and if you take another decade or so, such as the 1970s, you will see that only 1 of the horses from 1970 through 1980 was a closer. The rest were front runners, 5 of them wire to wire. That is why a represenative segment relevant to show any pattern goes back three or four decades, not 11 years.
But a truly exceptional horse can usually win regardless of pace, but that is the rare exception...but no one is saying that closers will not win, only that history is against them.
I respect your opinions, but as to what running style usually wins at the Belmont Stakes is a fact which is easily researched. The assertion that the Belmont has neither a bias against closers or stalkers is obviously not borne out by the 35 plus years of history.
Posted by: vicstu on June 06, 2007 at 02:17 AM
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Hi Dan
I've been reviewing the PP's for the Belmont probables. I think that Imawildandcrazyguy, will likely out run his odds in the race. Of all the derby starters, he ran the fastest closing 1/4 mile. Faster than SS, Curlin, Tiago etc. He should have no problem getting the distance. The slower pace of Belmont should have him much closer than the 20 lenghts he was behind in the derby(opening quarter). I dont see many endorsers of Imawildandcrazyguy, on the weblog... what do you think about the horses chances?
Posted by: Mark on June 06, 2007 at 06:00 AM
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Thanks Mr. Illman for the past performances on Composure. What happened to her after those spring SoCal races?
In the June 4 entry, a number of posters were talking about the book "Exotic Betting" by the Form's own Steven Crist. I'll admit that I've never read the book. But what makes the book so special (or so informative) that it has nearly every handicapper's endorsement?
Posted by: Dr. Dangerously on June 06, 2007 at 09:25 AM
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Wow,
It is so nice to see what this blog is turning into, this is some of the best posting since this blog got started. I hope it continues beyond the Triple Crown.
Now then, Here is my take on this mess that the Belmont is turning into. I have to say that I thought Curlin had a punchers chance in the Derby, and while I think he had a rough trip, it wasn't the worst I have seen, and no one was going to beat Street Sense that day. I hated Curlin in the Preakness because I thought he was underlaid and didn't think he would be able to handle Street Sense. Well he did handle that one...and cost me a few dollars... How effective will he be at 12 furlongs? He is by far the fastest of these horses, but has he done too much too soon? I really don't buy into this as much as many people. I don't think he would be in this race if he wasn't ready to win it. There are many other spots for this horse. I think the bigger question is who can beat him?
Hard Spun? I think Jones is so obsessed with winning a Classic race he would run his horse every week if he could to win one. His race in the derby has screwed up his mind into thinking that his horse is better than he really is. The ride is the Preakness only further distorts the fact that he is not up to this race. I think he gets nothing. And he will be right around 7/2.
Rags to Riches? If I didn't like her in the Oaks, how can I like her in this spot. I don't care if she is bred for this race, she has never faced anything close to this in her life. This is a weak filly crop, and although she has dominated, she is simply not this fast. Another that will be overbet and around 3-1.
I think Slew's Tizzy is an interesting horse. Maybe not for the win....but he is the overlay of the race. For starters he won on the front at Keeneland. Definately not an easy task this spring meet. I realize he didn't beat much, but it seems to me that this horse is improving at the right time. He dominated at Lone Star also in the slop. I also think the price will be right and his tactical speed will benefit him greatly and he could get first run on Curlin. I think he will be around 15-1. He may even be higher because people will hammer Tiago, who could be the wise guy horse similar to Circular Quay in the Preakness. How was Circular Quay 5-1 in that race???? He was the wise guy horse. Tiago will most certainly be that in the Belmont. The gallop out in the derby has been well documented and will be plastered all over Saturday. What about the "crazyguy"? I think he will also take money. I think he passed tired horses in the derby, all be it in the middle of the track. This horse wasn't exactly bet in the derby and will be seriously underlaid in this spot. If you are going to take less than 10-1 on a horse that was 50-1 in his last....good luck to you.
Not wasting my time talking about Digger. What about CP West. I think there are worse horses in this spot, but why couldn't he get by Hard Spun in the stretch? What makes Zito think he can do it here? I think this is more owner wanting to run so he is running.
Where does that leave us?
As much as I hate to admit it, Curlin looks like a tough beat in this spot but I hate chalk, so why not Slew's Tizzy? If you can get Hard Spun and Rags to Riches out of the Tri (good luck), then it could be half decent. I will try to hammer the Slew's Tizzy, Curlin exacta and take whatever I get....
I am more interested in the undercard....more to follow boys.
priz
Posted by: prizboy on June 06, 2007 at 09:26 AM
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Hey Kotashaan,
Correct me if I'm wrong, but your Belmont posts are all over the place. You've got Hard Spun as dangerous, Curlin in a romp, and Tiago as your pick- and it's only a 7 horse field.
There are times you have to stick with your convictions, right or wrong. Never be afraid of not cashing a ticket. I see a lot of guys hit the 'all' button and play all sorts of defensive combos in P3s, especially. When the 7/5 favorite wins, they cash a winning ticket, but either break even or (more often) lose money on the proposition. The common phrase is "It's better than ripping up the ticket". I totally disagree with that philosophy- in the long run, the takeout and breakage eat these guys alive 10 times out of 10.
I have to agree with Crist about the 'all' button and boxing. It's not laziness, though- it's a lack of confidence combined with a fear of losing.
C
Posted by: C on June 06, 2007 at 10:19 AM
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What about "Gomez" trying to get off Hard Spun and back onto RTR?. Anyone else intrigued by this?.
Posted by: Brian on June 06, 2007 at 10:19 AM
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Slew I don't think he's racing against a bunch of bums, I think that the rest of the horses just aren't close to as good as Curlin. That doesn't mean they are bad horses, Hard Spun is a very nice colt and I've said so. There are a couple of nice improving colts like Tizzy and CP West, and I called the filly by far the best of her crop.
This is NOT a bad field. That is why Curlin will have to be great to demolish them. All I'm saying is I think he is and that he will.
I think we talk differently man, I exagerate to make a point, I'm a stuff talker, I"m a little loud and bragadocious (really a word??). You might be taking me literally and that might be why we keep having misunderstandings.
Obviously, Tiago has a little better shot than me to win the race man. But I don't think its unfair to question his talent. Look at the SA derby field and tell me there is anything close to the caliber of horse he faces on Saturday.
There are plenty of logical reasons not to like the other horses in the Belmont.
We'll see what happens, if he isn't what I say he is, I'll be the first to say I was wrong. Hell, I've been wrong before in this game, it wouldn't be the first time.
Peace
Posted by: Jason on June 06, 2007 at 10:56 AM
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Wow the Belmont is full of drama. I am really excited about the race now with all the angles out there. RTR, HS, Curlin and Tiago, plus Slew,crazy Guy, CP West (who was my juvenile pick last year), very intruiging. I think with the size of the projected pools the exacta will be my key wager.
Posted by: tony f on June 06, 2007 at 10:58 AM
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Hi vicstu,
you're sort of right. I like to challenge a lot of axioms of racing because I think many of them are outdated and might not apply to the game anymore. It's not that I like to argue, but it's really fun to see the reaction I get out of others, especially when I know my point of view is not a common one. I'm actually surprised I haven't been hammered (yet) for my thoughts on the CD track during last year's BC, but give it time :> I always welcome anyone who disagrees. As for the Belmont, I generally agree that front-runners could take advantage at 1 1/2, but they still have to be fit enough. For me, just because there may be a 'lone-speed' or a decent horse like Hard Spun near the pace doesn't mean I'll bar any closer from consideration. That being said, I don't think Curlin is a deep closer at all, but I think it's his race to lose. I do agree with many other posts that the Belmont may not be worth playing anyway.
C
Posted by: C on June 06, 2007 at 11:27 AM
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Imawildandcrazyguy is getting no ink, and I even left him off my value line, an oversight that is telling. He rallied down the middle of the Churchhill track, which many believe was slower than the inside. However, he was not blocked like Curlin or Tiago.
I can't blame anyone who takes a flyer here, but boy I just can't get excited about this horse away from the turf.
RE: Gomez trying to land RTR. Gomez and his agent had to know that Jones was not going to to release him. I perceive this as a smokescreen, with the possible intent of driving up the odds on HS. Many people will perceive Gomez's desire to ride RTR as an endorsement of RTR and a dismissal of HS's chances. That assumption, in turn, could lead to an odds disparity between the 2, perhpas with RTR in the 5/2-3/1 range, and HS at 5-1 or maybe 6-1. That would make HS very hard to pass on. I'm going to wait for the jury to come back (see what the odds say) before deciding on the importance of this apparent stampede to ride RTR.
- Slew
Posted by: SlewofDamascus on June 06, 2007 at 11:39 AM
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Slew, I always love a good conspiracy theory. I think maybe Gomez was trying to appear loyal to Pletcher as much as trying to see some decent odds in the race. With 7 horses running, the odds, no matter what, won't be good. But I do like your theory as there must be lots of stategy going on for this one. And remember, what happens behind the barn stays behind the barn (smile)
Posted by: Davey700 on June 06, 2007 at 01:45 PM
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The most dominate stat in determining a Belmont winner is not speed, Stamina, not closing ability, it is the horse's SIRE LINE.
Raise-A-Native (RAN) has put forth ten out of the last 12 winners at Belmont. The only exception being Sarava in 2002 and Touch Gold in 1997.
So what horses in this year's Belmont are linked to RAN?
Curlin and CP West are RAN Sire lines.
In all fairness, in some years like 2005, 5 horses were RAN pedigree. But in others like last year, only two horses were RAN, Jazel and Bob and John.
I personally, think that everything is pointing towards Curlin romping in the Belmont.
Posted by: Zpalm on June 06, 2007 at 04:33 PM
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My convictions on this race are pretty simple: if you are not willing to back the truck up on Curlin do not bet it!!! How's that?
Curlin is the only horse I would lay down serious money on. Tiago I would bet to win if I were playing it because he'll offer nice value, but I would certainly not be backing up a truck to do it.
My Hard Spun post was Devils Advocate, perhaps I should have been clearer.
Conclusion: Curlin stalks in 2nd or 3rd place and wins, not because he is some monster horse (he isn't yet) but because it is such a crappy field. Silver Charm or Touch Gold would have handed this horse his head on a golden platter IMO, and they would have done it by several lengths (3-5).
Posted by: Kotashaan on June 08, 2007 at 04:56 PM
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This race looks like a nice triple crown horse Curlin, against a collection of pretenders. Anyone really think Pletcher would even be running Rags to Riches were it not for his 0 for lifetime record in the Triple crown races? At this point, Pletcher has been relegated to running almost everything but the kitchen sink in TC races in an attempt to win. Circular Quay should never have been in the Preakness. Several of his Derby horses this year were obvious misfits for that race. Pletcher has allowed ego to reign to enter a hopelessly overmatched filly against far superior males, and these males, beside Curlin are not even that good, so what does tha tell you? R to R has made a name this year beating up on one of the saddest 3 year old filly divisions I can remember. Look at the field for this weekends G2 Hollywood Oaks, pathetic! What is a nice G2 race for 3 year old fillies has now become basically a NW2 allowance quality race given the lack of quailty of the participants in it.
The plain truth is there are good crops and weak crops and to date this crop of female and male 3 year olds is fairly weak. The Derby prep races this year were about as poor as I can remember. The Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth were crap. The Santa Anita Derby and other big West coast preps were wholely forgettable. The Bluegrass was admittedly run at a very slow early pace which lead to the silly slow final time, but in reality, besides Street Sense using it as a public workout the field was crap. The Arkansas Derby, exclusive of Curlin, was the worst Ark Derby field I can remember in recent years, Officer Rocket?????? Cmon, be serious! The Wood field was so poor it was laughable with the highly overated and overhyped No Biz Like Shobiz leading the fray (Tagg was very wise NOT to run that animal at 1 1/2, he would have been thoroughly embarrassed at this distance and NBLSB looks like a carbon copy of another wildly hyped NY based horse from a short time back, Galloping Grocer.
If Curlin wins by 5 or 10 lengths it will not be because of some Secretariat type effort, it will be because he beat up on a bunch of horses most of whom should probably be running in G3's, not a G1 event at a classic euro distance. I can understand Hard Spun being here, he earned the right to be here, but he looks like his headstrong running style will want no part of 1 1/2 in any way shape or form especially that final 1/4 mile, Imawildandcrazyguy and Tiago also deserve being here despite modest credentials to date by running credibly in the Derby, not great but credibly.
The rest of this Belmont field is laughable with a nutty Nick Zito entry, a wholely desperate Pletcher entry of a filly who by no means deserves to be here simply because she has beaten up on a pathetic class of 3 year old fillies (this is no Silverbulletday or Ashado folks).
Randy Moss's pace analysis article on the Belmont is highly flawed for the following simple reason: his early pace analysis of how the race will set up is based upon previous routes being run at 1 1/4 miles and less. Todays race is an entirely different beast with the 1 1/2 mile distance basically removing the natural early pace advantage of several horses as they will be forced by common sense to go much slower earlier than they usually do if they hope to be around at the end. That brings Curlins natural 48 opening half cruising speed right up just behind the first group of CP, HS and RTR. Moss thinks HS will be on the lead entering the top of the stretch, I think Albarado will have collared him eye to eye well before then, most likely by the 3/8ths mark at the very latest. Alborado is no dummy, he knows that in a head to head duel with HS the longer he makes that duel last coming home the better his chances to wear HS out. Moss needs to rethink his silly logic of attempting to apply early pace figures from much shorter routes to the Belmont. I like Randy Moss, but he has this one dead wrong. If the pace is silly early, yes Curlin will be far back and such a pace will only play to his advantage. If the pace is sane, around the 48 second range, he'll be standing directly outside the outside the back door just biding time before knocking it in.
Curlins tactical advantage in this race over other Belmont favorites like Smarty Jones and war Emblem is that unlike headstrong types like them he does not need to run fast early so it is very difficult for other jockeys to pressure or mess with him pacewise. He will not be lassoooed by a Jerry Bailey type ride aboard Eddington to purposely fry him early. Because of that I think Curlin wins this one easy and any payout above even money is a huge effective overaly and borderline insanity by the betting public. So many people appear to be trying to beat this animal that it looks like he'll actually be a decent price above even money. Curlin above even money in a small field with no Street Sense????? LMFAO, if it happens I'll be backing the truck up on him and if I lose I lose, but it would still be a ridiculously high price on a horse head and shoulders above this crowd IMO.
This horse Curlin, like Point Given did also in the Preakness ran most of the stretch run on his wrong lead, and we all know what happened in Point Givens Belmont when that problem was corrected don't we! BURP!
Posted by: Kotashaan on June 09, 2007 at 06:29 PM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 