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FormBlog | June 22, 2007

Saturday Ascot, key race, Dance Smartly, picks

Well, the weather didn't cooperate after all at Royal Ascot on Friday.  Rains whipped down on the turf course, and it didn't help Darjina one bit.  She sat a great trip stalking the leaders while in third, but stayed one-paced in the stretch.  Finsceal Beo also looked like she was going to run a big one in the straightaway, but came up empty in a disappointing performance.  Indian Ink, on the other hand, relished the soft ground, and drew away in convincing style in the closing stages. 
Saturday's Group 1 race at Royal Ascot is the Golden Jubilee Stakes at 6 furlongs.  A field of 22 is expected so handicappers have plenty of options, but they're all going to have to beat Miss Andretti.  The popular Australian mare is widely-regarded as one of the best sprinters that country has produced in quite a while, and she smashed the 5 furlong course record at Royal Ascot on Tuesday in the Group 2 King's Stand Stakes.  She is now 4-4 this year with three Group 1 wins in Australia, and she handles soft going just fine.  Soldier's Tale may be an interesting longshot for the exotics.  A lightly-raced 6-year-old, Soldier's Tale was ill-suited to firm ground in his most recent start, and should appreciate the softer conditions expected for Saturday.  He has some back class as evidenced by a 4th-place finish in the Group 1 July Cup in 2005.
Selection:  Miss Andretti

Race Replay - King's Stand Stakes - courtesy YouTube (Miss Andretti - pp. 19, Magnus - pp. 17, Takeover Target - pp. 14)

http://youtube.com/watch?v=DC-nb4noMZ0

...Alan, I think it's quite likely you have identified a key race - and it's very nice of you to share it with us. I don't have the PPs, and I'm in the same boat as Mike with Youbet. Here's what I would ask myself, just for a little verification. Is PT being trained by a good trainer, one who knows how to place them? You mentioned Inca King who obviously stepped up and won. As I recall, one of those horses in the key race must have been Lattice, who I think ran second that day to Inca on a gd. surface. Lattice came back to win his next start, but he didn't run all that well behind Inca King last out, although Inca King had an easy lead. Of the other horses that won, were they stepping up, moving down, or staying at the same level? I'm not asking you to answer these for me, but just giving some thoughts about what I would want to know going forward. The competant trainer question is probably the most important factor in my experience. The better the trainer the more one might want to wager...
Slew

Just for the record, here are the next-out results of the horses in the 10th race at Keeneland on  April 27:

Inca King - 1st Jefferson Cup (turf) at Churchill Downs
Lattice - 1st AN1X at Churchill Downs (turf), 4th Jefferson Cup
Pleasant Strike - 1st optional claimer/N1X at Arlington (off-the-turf, polytrack)
Touchdown Peyton - 5th AN1X at Churchill (turf), 8th AN1X at Churchill (Turf)
La Neige - 2nd AN1X at Monmouth (turf)
Get Rich Quick - 1st AN1X at Woodbine (turf)
French Transition - 1st statebred AN1X at Belmont (turf)
Trading Star - unraced
Crusader Rabbit - 2nd AN1X at Delaware (dirt)
Wannabeincluded - unraced
Galloping Home - 2nd optional claimer/N1X at Arlington (polytrack), 4th optional claimer/N1X at Arlington (polytrack)
Tacticality - unraced

That's some key race!  There were five next-out winners, and three others finished second in their next start.  Again, thanks to Alan for finding the race.

***

Hey, Dan.
In terms of the Queen's Plate, Jiggs Coz looks tough to beat, but looms a short-priced favourite. He should get the perfect trip from post 6 with his tactical speed, he can be close up if the pace is slow. I'll play him on top of exotics with Marchfield, Mike Fox and Alezzandro. I honour of the Queen's Plate, and of Rags to Riches' Belmont win, could we get the pp's of Dance Smartly, a filly who swept the Canadian Triple Crown?
Wyatt

Here are her past performances:

Download dance_smartly.PDF

Here's a replay of her victory in the 1991 Breeders' Cup Distaff:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=u_tGrvIkT3U

***

Here are some quick and dirty selections for Saturday's stakes action:

Cinema Breeders' Cup:  Golden Balls, Worldly, Star Inside
New York Breeders' Cup:  Jade Queen, Barancella, Hostess, Vacare
Arlington Classic:  Pirate Saint, Vaunt, Starbase, Tom Archdeacon
Salvator Mile:  Lawyer Ron, Chucker, Gottcha Gold

Let me know who you like this weekend.

Best of luck,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman on June 22, 2007 | Permalink

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Comments

Daaher merits a few dollars at 15-1 ML in the Queen's Plate. His sire Awesome Again is one of the best Canadian-bred horses in history and he is a full brother to the classy Spun Sugar. Fantastic shipping trainer in K. Mclaughlin and Garcia decides to take the trip to ride. Seems the main threat to Jiggs Coz who has proven himself to be the best of those on the Canadian circuit. Leonnatus Anteas is the wildcard in here as he was the champion two-year old and really that was a pretty good comeback race.

Posted by: DManCPR on June 22, 2007 at 03:23 PM

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To Mike and Slew,

I'm sorry I didn't catch your comments/questions back to me - I stop reading the previous day's blog comments once the new blog begins....Pleasant Strike races for the Pletcher-Douglas combo ('lethal' at Arlington.) I actually wish he had less prominent connection because he will likely not stay at his ML of 6/1. Still, he is my pick, along with (in exotics) #9 Pirate Saint (heyhey...and Dan and Andy like Pirate Saint too - hopefully he won't "pull an Einstein" on me!!)

BTW, in case you don't know how to do this already, here is a dirty little secret how to get many past performances for these races (just don't tell too many people....I'm afraid they'll take it away!) Go to Pletcher's website, then click on "entries/results, workouts w ultimate PP":
http://www.toddpletcherracing.com/

Of course, for me. the biggest race on Saturday is not a stakes race, but the 7th race at Churchill (a 48K 2yo msw - you can get the PP's on the Darley website if you are interested - I'm surprised the Breeze Fig guys didn't use this one as a QuickPix) - a battle between two Kafwain-sired 2yo's (how will I ever choose between two Kafwains?), a 1st-timer from Forest Camp, a 3rd-timer (two 2nd-place finishes) by Gone West with a recent bullet work, and other well-bred horses as well - four Group1 Breeze Fig horses in the race. Races like this wet my appetite for Saratoga....

Also, did anyone catch the 8th race stretch duel at Churchill yesterday between Burmilla and Graeme Six? That was my race of the week - both horses are potential stars for the rest of the year (as long as Darley keeps racing Burmilla.)

Posted by: Alan on June 22, 2007 at 04:52 PM

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Thanks Alan for the heads up on the free PP's available at Pletcher's website. Appreciate it!!

Posted by: Dale on June 22, 2007 at 05:13 PM

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Weekend Picks:

Queens Plate: Leonnatus Anteas
Cinema BC: Mr. Eddie Boy
Arlington Classic: Pirate Saint
Possibly Perfect: Cheyenne Spirit
New York Stakes: Vacare
Without Feathers: Perfect Forest, Dynamite Diva
Sneakbox: Southern Missile
Salvatore: Lawyer Ron (at about 1/5...)
Barksdale: Dreamsandvisions

Posted by: Steve T on June 22, 2007 at 06:23 PM

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Cinema: #6 Streets Ahead- This one has some talent and Drysdale often trains his horses up to races. Valdivia is a very good turf rider. I’ll take a shot because I don’t think Worldly or Golden Balls towers over this group.
Salvator Mile: #1 Indy Wind- this horse is scary good at Monmouth. His trainer says he doesn’t like to ship. His run last out in the Frisk Me Now stakes was super-impressive and that was first off a layoff on a track that was favoring speed. At 4-1 ML and Lawyer Ron at 3-5, I’ll hope for 3-1.
Queen’s Plate: Marchfield- can’t argue with Casse-Husbands at Woodbine. This one should really enjoy the 1 1/4 . I don’t think he was fully cranked for his last, which was his first against winners, I think he’ll turn in a big performance.

Posted by: Dave on June 22, 2007 at 07:40 PM

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C Alldastars broke his maiden on his 2nd attempt at Prarie Meadows tonight - by Aldebaran, he was the 1st 2yo to run and lose for his sire. Since his loss he had a bullet workout and went off at 7/1 odds for the race (he was 15/1 on the morning line - someone else must have also liked him to win.) Despite being a single on my Pick3 ticket, he was part of the worst paying Pick3 I've had in awhile (my 1x2x4=$8 ticket paid less that $10!!

STAKES PICK OF THE WEEKEND: Saturday, AP9, Arlington Classic --> #2 Pleasant Strike (ML: 6/1) to win - I won't repeat my previous posts, just to remind you that:
Pedigree + Pletcher/Douglas + key race = VICTORY!!
Also box with #9 Pirate Saint for exotics.

MAIDEN PICK OF THE WEEKEND: Saturday, CD7, msw 48k --> #5 D.C.Eight (ML:10/1) - you know I have to pick one of two Kafwain horses and the other one (Yonegwa) now gets Bejarano - I doubt you'll even get close to the ML of 8/5 on Yonegwa. Watch a replay of D.C. Eight's maiden race on June 2nd - he swerved at the the start of the race, raced 3-4 wide into contention around the turn into the stretch, then greenly swerved all over the stretch to finish in 7th . Had a nice gate drill (Clocker rated B) last week. Hopefully, experience + blinkers will do the trick for an upset victory in this very competitive maiden race.

CRAZY LONGSHOT PICK FOR THE WEEKEND: Sunday, WO Race 8, Queens Plate --> #3 Include Us across the board and an exacta box of #2 Daaher, #3 Include Us and #7 Marchfield. This race smells like an upset - the favorite (Jiggs Coz) has never really been tested, the likely 2nd choice (Twilight Meteor) is better suited for the grass and there should be enough pace from them, Alezzandro and Mike Fox to close into. I've liked Include Us since I watched him race 4-5 wide in a maiden race at Keeneland in April (he must have run 1 1/4 miles that day he was so wide!!) He's still a maiden and will likely go off at ~50/1 odds in this race - he may not win, but he'll be coming at the end and should at least be on the bottom of your exotic tickets. #7 Marchfield has the best shot to close and win the race. #2 Daaher could not have been more impressive breaking his maiden at Belmont last month.

Good luck to everyone the weekend!

Posted by: Alan on June 23, 2007 at 12:31 AM

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My crazy longshot of the weekend, since Alan mentioned the idea, is a watch horse ("gamester, underrated") named Por Favor, a 6yo gelding, who is making his first lifetime start at 2 turns at Delaware (a race course he likes) in the 7th race, a starter allowance for those who have started for 10k or less. He's 15-1 M/L, the longest M/L price in the race. This is the "unofficial" 3rd race off the layoff for him.

The bad news is that he's trained by a poor win percentage trainer, making the spot questionable at best. Nevertheless, he's actually bred to be able to handle the extra real estate (it's somewhat odd that he was never given the chance before), and he could sit a good trip stalking a couple speed types, one of whom is the M/L favorite, the other 6-1. Por Favor was claimed by this trainer in the latter part of last year and has actually won for him, and if he wins for him today at 35-1 it will be in spite of him, not because of him.

As Dr. J. Trotter said, "Ya never know."

That's my crazy longshot for the weekend. Good luck, folks and have a great weekend.

-Slew

Posted by: SlewofDamascus on June 23, 2007 at 01:20 AM

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thanks to everyone that posted their thoughts for this weekend // even crazy longshots because it all helps to sort things out / steve t had a couple of nice winners last week, i apppreciate his post for this weekend also // thanks / chicago gerry

Posted by: chicago gerry on June 23, 2007 at 11:13 AM

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"...even when Ya Know, Ya never Know!"
In the 9th@Suffolk Saturday, #7,Texas Shadow goes sprint-to-route for my hometown buddy, Charlie A. off an easy maiden win. The thing that makes him a play is the owner, GATSAS Thoroughbreds,LLC. This is the same guy who owned GANDER,a monster NYB who was originally trained by Charlie, but transferred to John Terranova's barn when Charlie didn't want to commute back & forth to NY to keep Gander in his barn. I think Charlie will show GATSAS that he's still got it!- Good Luck,&...Bombs Away!-Bob

Posted by: BombsAway BOB GRANT on June 23, 2007 at 11:32 AM

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SLEW/TAP GOLD/MARK HENNIG

Slew, when I read Dan's response to your question about the handling of Tap Gold, I thought that Dan had nailed the response and that it was perfectly logical. It is logical but it's not the right answer. Mark told me that there simply has not been an N2X dirt route at either Belmont or Monmouth since her last race (5/4) and that all he's been able to do is jump into the turf races and hope they go "off".

It's a tough condition to get to go right now as the 3 year old fillies are running in stakes races and there just aren't enough of the "older" fillies and mares for this condition. Mark would prefer to run at Monmouth and go 2 turns with her but will take what he can get. Tap Gold looked great in her 5 furlong breeze this morning!

Mark got a chuckle out of your comments/assumptions. By the way, Eddington is by Unbridled not Unbridled's Song. He actually resides in Unbridled's old stall at Claiborne Farm.

I enjoy reading your comments/perspectives and can tell that you are a smart guy (or gal) but if I can share one thing that I've learned (the hard way) over the years with my handicapping, it's to respect what I don't know...

Posted by: Dave Rarey on June 23, 2007 at 11:58 AM

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Handicapping the Churchill card for today - besides the 7th race, two other nice 2yo MSW's.

CD2 (2yo fil): Will try to beat the well bred Asmussen-Bridgmohan 1st-time starter Twisted Tale with 2nd-timer #1 Youdrivesmecrazy (ML:3-1). First start on June 3rd better than on paper - raced well wide around the turn from outside post before tiring - now switches to the rail + jockey change to Bo-rail....

CD4 (2yo): Will again try to beat an Asmussen-Bridgmohan favorite (Bold Trust) with 2nd-time starter #6 Blackberry Road (ML:4/1), by Gone West, 1/2-bro to Vindication and Scipion. Was 3rd in the same maiden race as D.C.Eight, my pick for today's 7th (BTW, Manofthewest, the likely favorite in the 7th today, also ran in that June 2 maiden race.) If I'm lucky, after today that June 2nd Churchill maiden race will forever be known as a "key race".

Posted by: Alan on June 23, 2007 at 12:02 PM

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Saturday early pick 4 at Hollywood:

$4 P4 5,7 w/ 4 w/ 4,6 w/ 1,3
$2 P4 5,7 w/ 4 w/ 4,6 w/ 7
$2 P4 5,7 w/ 4 w/ 3,7 w/ 1,3
$1 P4 5,7 w/ 4 w/ 3,7 w/ 7
$1 P4 5,7 w/ 4 w/ 4,6 w/ 4,5,8
$1 P4 5,7 w/ 4 w/ 1 w/ 1,3
$1 P4 5,7 w/ 3 w/ 4,6 w/ 1,3
$1 P4 2,3,4 w/ 4 w/ 4,6 w/ 1,3

Total Cost: $96.00

First race has a bunch of second time starters, but my top pick is the firster for Palma. Barbara's Love should be a decent price since Palma is 0-7 first time out. Sire is 17% with debuters, dam has produced 7 winners, including two stakes winners. My second choice, To B. Devon, is coming out of 2f dashes, figures to get the lead and could be tough if she handles the stretchout.

In the second race Kalookan Dancer looks tough. She tends to run second but towers over this field.

Race 3 figures to have two well backed horses, Why You Ask and I'm All Out. I will use them as backups. Instead I like the two first timers. Both are sired by good debut sires and both should love the synthetic surface.

The final leg is a wide open race in my opinion. I am going to key on the two that have run best over the surface, Topper's Smile and Asian Eyes. Kissin Party is dropping and will be favored, she will be a backup for me.

Lenny

Posted by: aparagon4u on June 23, 2007 at 01:37 PM

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Glad you too had Blackberry Raod in the fourth @ Churchill Alan. I hammered him in his debut @ 14-1 where he ran a green third.
In general, am I the only one who has found the my maiden "horses to watch" win consistently more than my other "horses to watch." I guess it's because there are less variables with the conditions remaining the same but I am 5 for the last 6 with my maiden horses to watch. Is this a pheonomeon unique to me?

Posted by: DManCPR on June 23, 2007 at 02:53 PM

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Thanks for the info, Dave. Unfortunately, I make assumptions which - from time to time - prove to be specious. This endeavor that we all love so much requires the delicate balancing of humility and assumption.

I've never been an "inside" guy, a guy who can make a phone call and get the answer he wants - wouldn't it be great if - rather than running off at the mouth - I could call Mark Hennig, and say, "Mark (or Mr. Hennig or whatever is appropriate), what's going on with Tap Gold right now?" And then he'd tell me what he told you and that would be that. I wouldn't have to put myself in the precarious position of making assumptions, which at their worst are uninformed nonsense. Obviously, I made the wrong assumptions here.

When one is as far outside the loop as I am, and I think a great many of us are, assumptions have to be made, as I'm sure you'd agree; it's a fundamental requirement for the task (smile). However, the task has to be undertaken with a high degree of what you alluded to - respect. I shall endeavor to make that foremost in my thoughts, especially when I am tempted to make a criticism that is both negative and beyond the scope of logical assumption.

The explanation that Mark gave you makes great sense (obviously), and it's probably an answer that I should have been able to deduce on my own. The condition books are open to the public, after all. I let my frustration get the better of me, in any event. Thank you for the clarification about Eddington's sire, also.

I will be interested to see where Tap Gold runs next. I'm glad she's still holding her form in the morning.

Thanks.

Onward and upward.

-Slew

Posted by: SlewofDamascus on June 23, 2007 at 03:01 PM

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Invasor retired!!!! Who is the leader of the quite soft handicap division now?? What does that do for 3YO's looking @ horse of the year honors?? While I am glad it isn't life threating and I wish all the best for him at stud, this is awful for racing. We needed Invasor this fall and he will be greatly missed.

Posted by: Stephanie on June 23, 2007 at 08:45 PM

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HOY 06 INVASOR retired due to injury.

Good call on Plesant Strike. Another Smart Strike colt running in Queens Plate tomorrow.

Posted by: Andrew Carpenter on June 23, 2007 at 10:00 PM

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BUMMER...Invasor just retired....That really opens up the race for Horse of the Year because up until now, everyone else was battling for 2nd. Invasor....he was good....

Saturday recap:

CD Race 2: My chance to win on Youdrivesmecrazy 'ruined' when Borel fell off his mount after the finish line in the 1st race - therefore late jockey change to Mena....However, it wouldn't have mattered anyway as the winner, Subtle Aly - the other Asmussen 1st-timer - was much the best in the race - setting a new 4.5F track record!

CD Race 4: Race couldn't have unfolded any better for Blackberry Road - broke well -> settled easily -> came on in the stretch to beat the 1/2 Asmussen favorite by less than a length. Wish I could have gotten better than 3/1 odds, however! (was bet down from 4/1 right after the start of the race...)

CD Race 7: Picked the wrong Kafwain baby!! Blinkers cetainly weren't the solution for D.C. Eight - went for the lead with Yonegwas, then folded like a cheap suit...

Arlington Handicap: Pleasant Strike ran like he knew he had to defend the honor of Apr27KEE10 as a key race. He ran great and won at 6/1, but he's no Invasor...he was good...

PS: preview of the tomorrow's Queen's Plate results in the feature (5th) race at Calder today - 48/1 over 32/1 over 40/1 = TRI paid 18K!! In tomorrow's Queen's Plate, go Include Us - make Alan proud....

Posted by: Alan on June 23, 2007 at 11:36 PM

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Interesting comment from Gottcha Gold's jockey, Chuck Lopez, after upsetting Lawyer Ron in the 150k Salvatore mile at Monmouth Saturday. He had the lead from the start and had to survive Lawyer Ron's inevitable rally through the length of the stretch:

"I never looked back," Lopez said. "The worst thing you can do on the lead is look to see where the competition is. I just made a dash for the wire."

Amen to that brother, amen to that.

-Slew

Posted by: SlewofDamascus on June 23, 2007 at 11:57 PM

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Some picks and ponderings for Sunday's Queens' Plate:

Wager: a 6-7-2-9 super box w/ a win wager on Jiggz Coz.

Jiggz Coz has gotten a lot of positive press in recent Form articles and is a deserving favorite based on four wins and a third in five starts on Woodbine's Polytrack. The third in the Coronation Futurity can be attributed to greeness as he won, with BSF regression, chasing a slow pace in the Plate Trial. Marchfield has had a bout of seconditis, but the Casse/P. Husbands pair is always worth a hard look at WO (or when they ship south). Sports a quality pedigree and did graduate against older this spring and should get another check. Second to Jiggz in the aforementioned Plate Trial. Daaher has many similarities to Awesome Again (as per R. Gierkink's Analysis) and gets Alan Garcia to leave Belmont. The third place finisher won next out and his maiden win (which was four seconds faster than Marchfield's) looks good. Might steal it. Mike Fox rounds out the super. Three wins in five starts on Woodbine's Poly, but has never strung together two in a row. He gets the edge over Twilight Meteor from the P/V team who ship in and may take a lot of cash. The BSFs are nice, but this one's synthetic form leaves a lot to be desired.

Posted by: Dr. Dangerously on June 24, 2007 at 02:01 AM

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Too bad about Invasor being retired after his workout with hairline leg fracture...he was a warrior and a throwback to be racing up to 5 y.o. Tremendous heart and amazing 6 grade 1s in a row...Off to stud...

That leaves the field wide open for horse of the year...
so the preps and BC will be more important than ever. I was looking forward to seeing Invasor against Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, and of course, Belmont champ filly RTR...cause this is one of the best and deepest 3 year old crops in years (also dont forget the late blooming Tiago and NBLSB may be poised for a turnaround from his sad KD performance...
And Dan,
Once again we have what was supposed to have been a cake-walk for a touted horse (Lawyer Ron-Pletcher) in a stakes race turn into something else--a speed horse longshot being allowed to get loose going into the backstretch and winning a stunner over the favorite(sound familiar?)
The Salvator Mile was supposed to be a gimme for Lawyer Ron, but the lone speed in the race, Gotcha Gold, was allowed to run freely on the front end, opening up a lead which peaked at 5 or 6 lengths at the second turn, and lasting long enough to repel a late and furious bid by Lawyer Ron ridden by Johnny V who was a day late and a dollar short...the fact that Gotcha Gold was allowed to settle into an uncontested lead well in front of the pack sealed the fate of the 4 other horses...Once again, I find myself asking, why do these jockeys allow speed to open up large leads uncontested...Lawyer Ron, while GG was loose on the lead, settled into fourth well off of the lead...rating a horse like LR is one thing, settling him next to last while GG opens up is not wise...Is it that these stalkers like Ron (who used to be more impatient at rating than Hard Spun at 3 yo if I recall correctly) cannot hold the lead once they get it? Is that why jockeys continue to get "cute" and see how far back they can rate a horse who is better coming just off of the pace? In any event, folks, here is the lone speed--uncontested lead theory at work again!
Too bad for LR and Pletcher, but its no surprise. Let these horses run, and stalking jockeys, if you do not put some pressure on the lone speed up front you may be looking at the back end of that same speed horse come finish-line time...Just ask the also rans in the Alydar Stakes...Its like that movie Ground Hog Day with B Murray...different Saturday, same exact scenario and results.
Does anyone else see this as a recurring theme each Saturday?

Posted by: vicstu on June 24, 2007 at 07:45 AM

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Too bad about Invasor. These horses are really made out of glass today. What a weak Classic division we have: Invasor is out, BrotherDerek won't race until next year (if ever), PremiumTap is in the desert, never to return, Bernardini is done, DiscreteCat is probably done, LavaMan has shipping issues, Sun King is not that great, and Jazil is a so-so one-run closer. Who's left? Lawyer Ron? He missed at 1-10 in a G3 yesterday. He really whipped Lewis Michael in the St Louis Derby though! This is the best we've got? Lewis who?

Most of these big races in the handicap division should lose their G1 status this year. How can we call these G1s? Who's even left to run the Suburban, Woodward, etc? Commentator? He gives up if he can't get an easy lead. In this year's BC Classic, the 'champion' title will be won by default, not earned. I really enjoyed the previous post (I forgot who) about putting a restriction on the age of the sire for G1 races including the triple crown. It's a good idea because keeping a horse on the farm is expensive when they're not earning anything.

Posted by: C on June 24, 2007 at 09:56 AM

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BTW, the late P4 at Belmont is a bit challenging. Despite a 6-horse field in the 8th, I don't think a 5-digit payout is beyond hope. The last race (a GOD-AWFUL NYn1x on turf) is somewhat interesting in that I can't decide who the worst member of the field is. What is this, Beulah Downs?

I'm still finalizing some selections, so I'm not sure how deep I'm going to cover this race. However, I'm definitely using #6 A Wild Minute and #9 Sammy's Toy in some capacity.

Every law of handicapping says to forget about A Wild Minute. I don't love him either, but he usually TRIES to compete at some point during his races. In his last start (off an 8-mo layoff), he broke slow from the rail at 6f on the inner turf. There was apparently a mad scramble for the lead, as he was within 5 lengths despite being in 10th position early. No chance. Before that (going back to 2006), he showed some early foot at this level and distance (10/4, 8/17). The race on 9/14 was taken off turf and he wore a bar shoe. Forget it. His race at Saratoga on 8/17 (5 1/2 f) was decent, being in touch with the field throughout, steadied in the stretch, and missing 2nd by a 1/2 length, missing the win by another 1/2. He can obviously handle the fast early pace associated with these turf sprints. His previous tries at longer distances were not terrible efforts either. He made (mis-timed) middle moves in each one. Toss the 6/21 effort as it was just 5 days after a solid 1 1/8 try. This is not Nureyev, but with a well-timed move, he is exactly the type of horse that can turn a 4 or 5-digit payout into a 6-digit payout. He should be 40-1 at least.

Sammy's Toy is a little more logical. In a bad race with no standout, early speed counts. I'm expecting a wire attempt from this one. If he's feeling good today, he can win. I'm not reading too much into the scratch from Clm35Kn2l on 6/16. I already know he's cheap.

Posted by: C on June 24, 2007 at 10:44 AM

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Thanks Dan for the materials on Dance Smartly.

Anyways, who becomes the early favorite for the Suburban, let alone the leader of the Handicap division, now that Invasor is retired due to injury?

Posted by: Dr. Dangerously on June 24, 2007 at 01:30 PM

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Another maiden pick - a longshot...

Today's CD6 (2yoMSW): Bet #2 Sevendaysmakeaweek (ML:12-1, longest shot on the board) across the board. I'm trying to beat the likely favorites (#5 Possible - a Posse 1st-timer for the Asmussen-Bridgmohan juggernaut and #6 Its Ready - 2nd-time More Than Ready colt for Pletcher-Bejarano) and a well-bred (by Dixieland Band) 1st-timer for Romans-Guidry (#1 Aidan). My pick is by newbie sire, Sunday Break (no baby wins yet), Gr1 Breeze Fig (SCR from OBSAPR07), with a couple of nice recent workouts (last one with Castanon on board.) Vickie Foley 1st-timer win% isn't too great but her ROI is OK. Another interesting longshot is #8 Newport Harbour, by newbie-sire Full Mandate, whose babes have already won 3 maiden races.

(BTW, Dan and others, I hope I'm not boring you with too many of these maiden race picks - I do this for myself on my "maiden" blog - that blog helps me document/analyze my many mistakes in these races - and am now bringing over a few of these 'guaranteed losers' here...)

Posted by: Alan on June 24, 2007 at 02:16 PM

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I nominate Alan for Handicapper of the Week for his excellent presentation on the Key Race Theory. His work identified Pleasant Strike ($12) as a standout.

While this blog has proven to be a fine place to register complaints or other minutia related to the vagaries of horseracing, I nevertheless think we'd all agree that this "space" is at its best as a handicapping forum, a place where people can congregate and contribute to the great handicapping challenge.

The promotion of handicapping theory is foremost in what we are doing here. I think what Alan provided this week is the gold standard to which we all aspire - theory in practice.

While many of us are interested in the auxillary issues that have bearing on the administrative functionality of our great sport (whether it's the drug issues or the takeout quandry, etc.), we can get that information - ad nauseum - from any number of venues. Here, at this blog, the silent viewership (which outnumber the vocal contingent by a great number, I'd imagine) is undoubtedly most interested in the methodology of finding value (winners) at the racetrack. And I think it is this mission that stands above all others. They come to read and learn and then they leave without a peep, only to come back and do it all over again tomorrow, next weekend, or next month.

Today it is Alan's representation of the Key Race Theory, which produced immediate gratification in the form of a $12 winner, but which more importantly had the potential to produce a long term solution to finding winners. The "give a man/teach a man" parable is unquestionably apt.

I think I can speak for that silent viewership when I say, keep it coming please.

Thanks.

-Slew

Posted by: SlewofDamascus on June 24, 2007 at 04:01 PM

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Slew, in response to your comment, (11:57 pm June 23, starts with Interesting comment from Gottcha Gold's jockey, Chuck Lopez....",

Those things have made Chuck Lopez a playable jockey at Monmouth summers and Aqueduct winners.

And I remember a couple of other jockeys doing what Lopez didn't do. There's Fernando Jara on Invasor in the '06 Suburban and Javier Castellano on Bellamy Road in the '05 Wood.

Posted by: Dr. Dangerously on June 24, 2007 at 08:07 PM

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i agree with slew as everyone benefits by the weekend postings whether the he/she got it right or not because there usually us some kind of effort expended to present ideas about a particular race // // ideas that one can use or throw out but perhaps something one hasn't considered // ditto on the good job to alan for his work // also, thanks to alan for the plectherweb site // if you hanen't gone there, you will be impressed // i think there were a few who identified blackberry in the 4th at churchill on Sat., which should have helped //h blackberyy paid 8.60 to win // there are probably others that i dont recall right now //i wanted to mention the illinoisotb.com website // while this site is not as impressive as others, they have a weekly online newsletter // there is a 'Lucky Magee' handicapper that has picked right many times without going into long slumps / usually only one or two picks a week / he strongly advocated picked Mederah (sp) on sat., for the NY grade ll at Belmont stakes by saying "trust me on this" / Mederah paid 7.50 to win // i meant to share this but didn't get to it // also, i hope that i helped those who made it over to Kennedy's Corridor blog for Sat's., card at Arlington Park // i think Kennedy has some great posts //i advocated playing Baird and Douglas to win on odds of 3-1 to 11-1 and creating your own exotics for Baird and Douglas if they were at 1-1 // these two jockeys accounted for 5 wins out of a 10 race card at Arlington Park and paid some nice prices / thanks/ chicago gerry

Posted by: chicago gerry on June 24, 2007 at 08:37 PM

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Slew and Gerry,

Thanks for the kind comments. My astute handicapping skills today included recommending horses that finished 6th in the sloppy MSW at Churchill (I've got to stop trying to beat Posse-sired 2yos) and 5th in the Queen's Plate - although my heart started beating really fast when you could finally see Include Us on TRAKUS, boldly making his late run (of course, he then flattened out in the stretch...)

The Queen's Plate was a handicapping example of "The operation was a success, but the patient died." The favorite appeared to be vulnerable, but I picked the wrong longshot...I had a somewhat similar experience yesterday, when I bet Chucker to win (vs. Lawyer Ron - 1/5 at the time of my bet, 1/9 at the start of the race) in the Salvator Mile. What did I forget?? I forgot about lone speed - Gottcha Gold won at 10/1! I didn't follow one of my handicapping rules - when you are betting against a prohibitive favorite (like Lawyer Ron), make sure to choose a horse that has a different racing style.

I was very close in the Salvator to losing a bunch of money betting Chucker to show as well (hoping for "bridge jumping" from an off-the-board performance by Lawyer Ron - 464K out of 484K in the show pool was bet on Lawyer Ron!) The only bridge jumping would have been mine as Chucker came in 4th in the five horse field...

Well, now to the upcoming Suburban Handicap. With Invasor out, it will be very interesting to see who now runs Saturday - nominees to the race included: A.P. Arrow, Corinthian, Evening Attire, Fairbanks, Harlington, Hesanoldsalt, Invasor, Jazil, Lawyer Ron (I wonder if Pletcher now regrets running yesterday at Monmouth), Malibu Moonshine, Papi Chullo (out with a hoof injury), Political Force, Student Council, Sun King, Tasteyville and Wanderin Boy (just ran in the Stephen Foster) - NOT EXACTLY DR. FAGER VS. DAMASCUS!!

Posted by: Alan on June 24, 2007 at 10:23 PM

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Thanks Alan for finding the noms. And a round of applause for your good recent handicapping.

The only way this race retains any semblance of Grade 1 clout is if Corinthian runs. Otherwise, it looks like a Grade 3.

Posted by: Dr. Dangerously on June 24, 2007 at 10:44 PM

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vicstu // i enjoyed your post // of course you are right about uncontested speed and your reference to the Bill Murray (Chicagoan) movie 'ground hog day' was interesting / i am sure JR would like a do over for the Salvator Mile // it's my understanding that the fractions and final time was 'smokin' / it was a classic case of a horse getting alone and the lead and then getting brave to the end // i am interested in what the beyers are going to be for this race // at least plecther knows that LA can get hold of the track at Monmouth Park // thanks// chicago gerry

Posted by: chicago gerry on June 24, 2007 at 11:52 PM

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Wow what a key race that was. Thanks for finding it Alan.

Posted by: Ryan on June 25, 2007 at 01:16 AM

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Gerry,
Gottcha Gold and Lawyer Ron both got great Beyers in the Salvator Mile. The following is from Simulcast Daily. I recommend Simulcast Daily to any handicapper out there ($78 online subscription for 6 months) - I've only had it for 1-2 weeks (on Dan's recommendation) and have already more than made my money back...

SALVATOR MILE BEYERS:
(22.95/45.43/1:09.39/1:34.25)
1 GOTTCHA GOLD 108
2 Lawyer Ron 108
3 IndyWind 91
4 Chucker 87
5 Take the Bluff 75

Another interesting study in Beyer contrasts - the track must have been 'super fast' a year ago (July 9, 2006) when Smart Enough ran a half a second faster than this in the Lamplighter Stakes and only got a 96 Beyer!! Check out the difference:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL50XFjIgiIIYA

Good day to try to win a Pick4 to build up the bankroll for this weekend's races. On Mondays, I love to play the Pick4s at Prarie Meadows (50 cent Pick4s - made for the small-potatoes guy!) Today's early Pick4 at Prarie Meadows includes 3 MSWs, two of which are for 2yo maidens! Unfortunately, pedigrees are much harder for me to decipher in these maiden races (especially for the Iowa-breds), so I tend to use trainer stats and workouts to a greater degree.

Posted by: Alan on June 25, 2007 at 10:07 AM

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OOPS - I messed up my spreadsheet (I hope this doesn't carry over to my Pick4 tickets at Prarie Meadows later today!!) I included horses racing on 'good' turf, including the aforementioned Smart Enough, in the table. When you eliminate the turf races, the 108 in the Salvator Mile makes more sense. See revised Table:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL50XFjIgiIIYA

At Prarie Meadows today, in race2 (24K msw fillies) I will bet to win and include in my Pick4 tickets #3 Hateful (ML:10-1), 1st-timer by newbie sire Cactus Ridge out of a Woodman mare + nice recent workouts at the track. Will also include on my ticket 2nd-time starter #1 Flatter Matters (1st-time Lasix) and #4 Bullish Girl, another 1ster with a recent 3f bullet workout from the gate.

Posted by: Alan on June 25, 2007 at 03:44 PM

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