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FormBlog | June 11, 2007

Weekend Beyers, 'cappers of week, Belmont pace

Birdstone: Papi Chullo (G. Contessa/E. Coa) - 109
Ack Ack: El Roblar (R. Mandella/V. Espinoza) - 107
Just a Game: My Typhoon (W. Mott/E. Castro) - 107
Belmont: Rags to Riches (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 107
Brandywine: Barcola (M. Hennig/K. Carmouche) - 106
Manhattan: Better Talk Now (H. Motion/R. Dominguez) - 105
Charles Whittingham Memorial: After Market (J. Shirreffs/A. Solis) - 104
True North: Will He Shine (D. Romans/E. Prado) - 103
Woody Stephens Breeders’ Cup: Teuflesberg (J. Sanders/R. Albarado) - 102
Acorn: Cotton Blossom (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 101
Slipton Fell: Bernie Blue (M. Feliciano/D. Parker) - 101
Steady Growth: Executive Choice (R. Baker/E. Ramsammy) - 101
Hill Prince: Marcavelly (W. Mott/E. Prado) - 98
Heckofaralph: Nacascolo (M. Azpurua/J. Sanchez) - 98
Brooks Fields: General Charley (M. Stidham/P. Nolan) - 96
Honeymoon Breeders’ Cup: Valbenny (P. Gallagher/A. Solis) - 95
Little Silver: Audacious Chloe (T. Pletcher/C. Decarlo) - 94
Prairie Mile: Greeleys Conquest (G. Thomas/L. Sterling Jr.) - 94
Labatt Woodbine Oaks: Sealy Hill (M. Casse/P. Husbands) - 94
Redondo Beach: Somethingaboutlaura (J. Hollendorfer/V. Espinoza) - 94
Hollywood Breeders' Cup Oaks:  Tough Tiz's Sis (B. Baffert/A. Gryder) - 94
Ron Dwyer Memorial: Corredor Del Oro (D. McFarlane/J. Kenny) - 93
Yerba Buena: Mabadi (S. Shulman/J. Rosario) - 93
Mataji: Tacit Agreement (Ma. Wolfson/C. Olivero) - 93
Longfellow: Wildeyed Dreamer (S. Lake/C. Lopez) - 93
Victoria Park: Approval Rating (M. Casse/P. Husbands) - 92
Mount Vernon: Factual Contender (B. Tagg/E. Coa) - 92
Foresta: Meribel (C. Clement/G. Gomez) - 92
Skipat: Silmaril (C. Grove/R. Fogelsonger) - 92
Rumson: Cherokee Country (R. Preciado/J. Lezcano) - 90
Ema Bovary: Stolen Prayer (E. Plesa Jr./M. Cruz) - 90
Peppy Addy: Mr. Boxcar (D. Curry/J. Flores) - 88
West Long Branch: Sweet Fervor (W. Mott/J. Bravo) - 87
Chantilly:  Des Moines (R. Tracy Jr./A. Cuthbertson) - 86
Cortan: Donald’s Pride (P. Burns/M. Mawing) - 86
Babae: Silence Dogood (J. Kimmel/K. Desormeaux) - 86
Herald Gold Plate: Teagues Fight (D. MacDonald/S. Heiler) - 84
TTA Sales Futurity (Division 2): Namesake (S. Asmussen/H. Theriot II) - 82
Panthers: Girls Pearls (K. McPeek/G. Corbett) - 81
Alywow:  Silky Smooth (M. Casse/P. Husbands) - 80
New York New York: Famous Frolic (Mi. Wolfson/E. Nunez) - 78
Washington State Legislators:  She's All Silk (H. Mullens/R. Frazier) - 77
Duchess of York: She’s Italian (D. MacDonald/J. Barton) - 76
Lost in the Fog:  Imaginary Sailor (J. Hollendorfer/C. Schvaneveldt) - 75
TTA Sales Futurity (Division 1): Maileys Cat (W. Calhoun/R. Zimmerman) - 74
Ingrid Knotts: Vannacide (K. Gleason/O. Martinez Jr.) - 74
Isadorable: Ask Queenie (L. Lockhart/D. Panell) - 73
Regret: Valley Loot (R. Allen/M. Allen) - 68
Indiana First Lady: Amature’s Prize (M. Lauer/W. Troilo) - 61
Helen Anthony Memorial: Wine Tasting Room (M. Kumke/K. Kenney) - 60
Maiden Derby:  Beaucardi (T. Elison/B. Long) - 55
Governor’s Stakes: Wave Land Groovy (J. Greenwell/L. Goncalves) - 54
Chris Christian Stakes (Division 2):  Lady Railrider (K. McReynolds/B. Long) - 46
Chris Christian Stakes (Division 1):  Poketfuloffeathers (P. Treasure/R. Luark) - 40

Handicapper(s) of the week:

Jun. 4 - 6:55pm
Hey Dan,
I'd like to open a discussion about Rags to Riches.  I'm really hoping that Pletcher follows through and runs her.  I'm a huge Curlin fan, but I think RtR has an excellent shot to pull the upset.  I loved the manner in which she won the Oaks--apparently toiling, but ultimately dominating away effortlessly.  It was a race I can see her moving forward from. Both her breeding and the way she runs lead me to believe she'll love the mile and a half more than any of them.  Plus, she comes into this fresh.  Will I get 4-1 if she goes?
Aaron

Yes, you will.  She was tremendous, and this was a nice analysis five days before the race.  Well done!  I'd say that her race was one of the best performances I've seen from a visual standpoint (the figure wasn't bad either).  She's a filly going against the boys.  She stumbles at the start.  She chases a dawdling pace while very wide, and still outduels the Preakness winner the entire length of the stretch.  Wow!

Jun 7 - 8:05pm
In true sense of the phrase "I must be out of my mind" I present my case for Teuflesberg in the Woody Stephens.  I'll wait for the laughter to stop... A couple of weeks I criticised his trainer for even thinking about the Preakness, and she did not run him.  I know he has run in a lot of races since his only layoff line, but since that layoff he is 3-3 sprinting.  Overall he has 7 placings and 6 of those have come since the layoff line.  Also he moves back to Albarado who was aboard for 3 of the 4 wins.  Finally, Teuflesberg's sire was Johannesburg who won the BC Juvenile at Belmont.  Teuflesberg's dam sire Devil's Bag won 2 stakes at Belmont including the Champagne.  I'm sure he's gonna be a huge price and at $2 seems like it's worth a shot.  Of course I could look like a moron come Saturday night, but I can spare the 2 bucks.  Dan, part of the pick of T-burg was he is only one of two in that race with a Beyer at 100 or more, and the par is well above that.
sonymatt

I'll only tell you that you're outta your mind of you didn't cash that $18.20 win ticket on Teuflesberg.  Excellent analysis.  Say what you will about Jamie Sanders and her winning percentage, but this horse dances every dance, and is usually right there.  Racing needs more horses like this.  The casual fans at the track didn't know many of the horses on the card, but Teuflesberg was one name they did recognize.  Why?  Because everytime there's a big race on TV, he's in it!  That's the way to build a fan base.  I was dead wrong when I questioned whether Sanders should go for the Triple Crown preps after Teuflesberg's win in the Rebel.  I wondered if those hard races would have an adverse effect on a sprinter at heart.  Guess not.

Jun. 8 - 9:51 am
...Analysis: Silence Dogood is the pick to win in a race with more wagering appeal than the nationally televised feature.  Two back, she finished a neck behind Panty Raid who won the G2 Black Eyed Susan.  Last out on turf, at one turn, she finished second to Rutherienne, a co-winner of last week’s G3 Sands Point.  The form is there, the Kimmel/Desormaeux team are hitting at 22% for the year and the Belmont meet.  And ascending Beyers too.  I’ll even single her in my late pick 3.
The win pick is Marcavelly.  A repeat of his Transylvania would win with this, especially with Storm in May as an early pace factor that will ensure a decent pace, not the dawdling one on Oaks Day.  I also upgrade his chances on firm turf, since it wasn’t firm in the Crown Royal American Turf.
Late pick 3 wager, $20 wager:
Race 8: Single of #10
Race 9: All (oh those chaotic claimers)
Race 10:  Single of #3
Jun. 9 - 12:26pm
Race 3, Birdstone Stakes:  Wager: a chalky 4-1-3 trifecta box w/ a win wager on Hesanoldsalt...Race 5, Foresta Stakes: Wager: a 7-4-11-1 super box w/ a win wager on #7...Race 7: Just A Game Handicap: Wager: a 5-2-1 trifecta box w/ a win wager on Wait A While...Race 10: Manhattan Handicap:  Wager: a  2-8-6-7 super box w/ a win wager on English Channel (minimum odds of 9-5)...Race 11: Belmont Stakes:  Wager: a 3-6-2-4 super box w/ a win wager on Curlin.
Dr. Dangerously

Let's try to keep track of all these winners.  Silence Dogood paid $6.60.  Marcavelly paid only $4.10, but the pick three returned $117.50.  The Dr. stayed hot on Saturday.  The Birdstone trifecta paid $19.  Meribel won the Foresta at $5.50.  The Just a Game trifecta paid $42.60.  Then, two straight superfectas!  The Manhattan returned $225, and the Belmont paid $242.50.  Hope you cashed out!


Jun. 8 - 11:39am
Price plays elsewhere in the card: I'm in Love (12-1 ML) in the 5th; Most Distinguished (6-1) in the 8th...
Terry Flanagan

Excellent handicapping here.  Both horses finished second at big prices.  I'm in Love paid $12.20 to place in the Foresta.  Most Distinguished returned $10 to place in the Woody Stephens. Perhaps you backed up in some exactas.

Jun. 8 - 3:44pm
True North
I'm going with He Will Shine at about 8-1 or so. He had to go 4w on Derby day when the rail was better, before that, he was a decent 4th after a slow break in the General George. Last was on turf, throw out...I do think he's in a tricky spot between Keyed Entry and Bordonaro, but with a decent break he's in good shape to sit a trip from about 3 or 4 off those two, who should be cooking on the front end.Manhattan
I like Better Talk Now. Last time was just too short for him and he was a short horse, throw in the bump and check and last time was a pretty good effort. I'll put him with Cosmonaut.
Greg

Greg nailed both races right on the nose.  Will He Shine paid $22.80 in the True North, and Better Talk Now returned $8.70 over favored English Channel in the Manhattan.  Like Teuflesberg, Better Talk Now dances every dance, and is a horse that racing can build a fan base around.  Most casual fans love the Silky Sullivan closer-types. 

Jun. 8 - 7:23pm
Birdstone-100k (Sorry Smarty)
1. Frost Giant-horse belongs on dirt, 600k price.
2. Papi Chullo-139'4, last is smoking.
BELMONT-1mm.
1. Rags to Riches-should relish distance, tactical speed, dad & granddaddy won race. Gomez wanted back on for a big reason-10% of 600k-winner share. Have fun all.
Andrew Carpenter

Andrew scored with second choice Papi Chullo after Frost Giant scratched.  It's all in the family for Rags to Riches.  Her sire won the Belmont.  His sire and broodmare sire won the Belmont.  Her half-brother won the Belmont.  She won the Belmont.  Who says we don't breed for 12 furlongs anymore?

Jun. 8 - 8:24pm
Weekend Picks:
Belmont:
Race 4: Berry Bound - should appreciate moving into statebred competition. Throw in Smokey Chimney and Defrereoftheheart
DManCPR

This cold trifecta paid $78.50. 

Jun. 9 - 11:54am
Just a Game:  My Typhoon
Really didn't like Wait a While's last, and My Typhoon has been consistently good.
Steve T

Steve T. was correct to play against favored My Typhoon.  A very nice ride by the up-and-coming Eddie Castro on My Typhoon helped her steal this on the front end.

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...So, Dan , question: can you think of any classic race, or any Belmont Stakes race, that unfolded with these bizzare fractions? What do you make of it?  Thanks...
-Slew

The early fractions reminded me a lot of Thunder Gulch's Belmont win in 1994.  Let's compare the times:

1994 Belmont (pacesetter Star Standard) - 24 2/5, 50 1/5, 1:15 2/5, 1:40, 2:05 4/5, 2:32

2007 Belmont (pacesetter C P West) - 24.74, 50.14, 1:15.32, 1:40.23, 2:04.91, 2:28.74.

The main difference in these two races is that the 1994 Belmont had no true speed horse other than Star Standard.  Wild Syn and Citideed had some speed, but were mostly presser/stalker types.  Thunder Gulch was a stalker/closer.  This year, there looked to be a ton of speed in the race.  Did the distance spook the riders (most notably Gomez and Bejarano) into taking too much of a hold?  I'm sure that the most shocked person going into the first turn was Prado on C P West.  He broke well, and was hoping that the two speeds would clear off in front of him so that he could draft in behind.  When that didn't happen, it took C P West out of his game.  I'm amazed that neither Bejarano nor Gomez took the bull by the horns with their mounts entering the backstretch.  They saw that C P West was on the lead.  Their mounts were pulling hard.  Obviously the pace was slow.  I think you have to let them run at this point. 
Speed horses have a distinct advantage when they slow down the fractions, AND give themselves some breathing room from the stalkers and closers.  The whole point of having speed is to make a winning move on the turn, and create space from the other horses.  A speed horse can't hope to match the closing kick of a quality stalker/closer, no matter what the fractions are up front, unless they have built up a usable advantage.  Perhaps Gomez didn't want to get the same abuse that Pino received for "moving too soon."  Perhaps Hard Spun is a tough ride, and you can't gather him up again after asking him to go.  It's very hard to say.
I don't want to take anything away from the top two horses.  They put on a show.  The replay shot of the two battling down the stretch with the crowd going bananas behind them was priceless.  Rags to Riches was sensational.  Horses aren't supposed to win after that kind of trip, and she came home in 23.83.  Curlin was also excellent.  He was down inside for most of the way, bulled out turning for home, and showed tremendous courage while pinned down on the rail.  It is amazing that he has kept his strong form the entire season after all of the hard races, and no juvenile foundation to call upon. He's a very good horse.
As for the rides.  I think that both Gomez and Bejarano should be taken to task for not being more aggressive with their mounts.  That being said, it's not like they would have won the race anyway.  Slew's Tizzy had enough midway on the turn, and Hard Spun put up absolutely no resistance when the top two started to motor.  I could understand excuses flying if they got beat two lengths, or even five.  Hard Spun was beaten 11.  Slew's Tizzy was beaten 17...by the next-to-last place Imawildandcrazyguy.  They showed no steam when the real running began.  Perhaps, it was because their will was taken away from them by their riders in the opening furlongs, but I would have loved to have seen some fight from them. 
Some posters have questioned whether Gomez and Johnny V. were working together.  I don't see it.  Gomez had every chance to box in Curlin on the far turn, but he let the Preakness winner out to engage Rags to Riches turning for home.  If there was collusion, then why did Gomez let Curlin out of the pocket when he was trailing a tiring pacesetter?
The fractions were strange, but I think the two best horses finished one-two. 

Much more tomorrow,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman on June 11, 2007 | Permalink

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Comments

Hey Dan,
Sorry if I'm repeating myself because I was writing my comment while you were doing today's blog entry, but did you just see Amazing Tale win the her maiden race at Prairie Meadows! 4.5F in 51 4/5 seconds - just 2/5ths off the track record! Her odds finally ended at her morning line (5/2). Can you please try to find out what her Beyer was for the race? Thanks!
I hope some of you scored on her also!! She's a keeper for all watch lists!!

Posted by: Alan on June 11, 2007 at 05:17 PM

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For all seeking a reasonable access to DRF Plus: The DRF sponsored site - Public Handicapper.com; it's a great contest format, free and challenging. Best of all it features several deals to purchase DRF cards online - the best being 100 cards for $100,available most of the year. AND it comes with DRF Plus access included in the price. I use it for some days, but I can still buy a form for Saturday, when there are more cards of interest. Everyone on this site should make use of Public Handicapper - just use a link on DRF.com.

Posted by: Mike Soper on June 11, 2007 at 05:48 PM

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I would add that any subscription package from DRF for its past performances, whether it's formulator (which includes accss to the moss figures) or the regular PPs, incudes access to DRF+.

-Slew

Posted by: SlewofDamascus on June 11, 2007 at 06:36 PM

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Is there a reason that the charts available through Formulator 4.1 only go back 3 races? I'd much rather see 5 or more. Researching Einstein would be a good example...his last 2 races were throw-aways (avoiding a downed horse at Pimlico, throat problem at Churchill) which would leave me one to really look at.

Posted by: John, Peoria IL on June 11, 2007 at 08:32 PM

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Thanks for the response and mention on Capper of the Week.

Two questions: First, about last Saturday's C. Wittingham Memorial: Where can I find a race replay of it? I usually use the free replays at this site and ntra.com, but the voters here voted for other races and the ntra.com link doesn't work.

Secondly, when will entries be drawn for the June 16 Colonial Turf Cup?

Posted by: Dr. Dangerously on June 11, 2007 at 09:16 PM

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To see the Wittingham (and other races as well), use Calracing.com - you need to register (it's free.) It's a great site, especially for head-on replays. (http://www.calracing.com/replays.php)

There is an interesting maiden race tomorrow. Freshman-sire Aldebaren (one of my "favorites" - he won the Met Mile for me!) is 2/2 so far with his 2-yo first-timers (he was 1/1 himself as a 2-yo.)

Tomorrow, at my new favorite track, Prarie Meadows, his 3rd foal to race, 2-yo filly C Alldastars (ML:12/1), is running in the 6th race, a 4.5F msw. Dam is Starship Contessa (16-1-1-3 record - yuck - and no foals yet to race...), trainer is 0 for 13 past five years with 2-yo first timers, and workouts are midrange at best (only positive, besides Aldebaren as her sire, is that her jockey has been hot.)

If C Alldastars somehow wins tomorrow, Aldebaren will join my freshman sire first-timer watch list, along with Kafwain and Posse. If C Alldastars goes off at > 12/1 post-time, I'll probably throw a few bucks her way (on the other hand, if she gets blasted down to < 4/1, I'll probably bet her even a little bit more!!!)

Posted by: Alan on June 11, 2007 at 10:02 PM

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"The replay shot of the two battling down the stretch with the crowd going bananas behind them was priceless." I was in the crowd going bananas sitting right at the top of the stretch... it was absolutely thrilling!

Here's a question... is Hard Spun the best 3 year old who ran in the triple crown without winning any of the three races?

Posted by: superterrific on June 11, 2007 at 10:33 PM

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To superterrific:

That's a pretty vague question...Hard Spun the best 3-yr old not to win a triple crown race this year? Surely you're not suggesting that he is/was better than Alydar?

Posted by: John, Peoria IL on June 11, 2007 at 10:50 PM

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Here's a question: is Rags to Riches this year's Commendable, Jazil, Editor's Note, Lemon Drop Kid or any similar mediocrity who staggered to a Belmont victory in classically mediocre time?

Posted by: Mountebank on June 11, 2007 at 11:06 PM

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I believe I read today that RTR's final quarter was the fastest winning final quarter in the history of the race, which I'm not sure could be labeled mediocre, although the way the race was run, strong late fractions are to be expected.

If true, I think this underlines my contention that this race was so bizarre that to draw any final conclusions about the top 4 (or perhaps all of them) is unwise. In spite of the fast final quarter, the race received an average or par Beyer speed figure. I suspect that the Beyer speed figure assigned to the Belmont Stakes reflects the ambiguity, since it is a "safe" 107, or right at par. Par is the "safest" place to end up if one is perplexed by the nature of the whole preceeding.

I'd almost prefer it if the Beyer folks - every once in a while - would come out and say "we really don't know what to make of this event", by the insertion of a simple notation where the Beyer speed figures are recorded in PPs, such as DNC (did not compute), to represent the peculiarity of the given event, and no one can deny that peculiar and utterly ambiguous races occur.

I'm saying I'd have more confidence in the Beyer folks if they simply admitted as much instead of making a representation that has no basis in what is knowable, or of what is fact, if you prefer.

The sheer volume of races demands that a certain number of them be unreadable or indecipherable - there's no shame in that. In fact, the insertion of such a notation would be a very honest reflection of what does, in fact, occur from time to time at tracks covered by Beyer and his associates. Just 1 man's opinion.

Thanks.

-Slew

Posted by: SlewofDamascus on June 12, 2007 at 01:06 AM

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Rags to Riches mediocre? Consider the stumble and wide trip and she’s the only horse running decent interior fractions still closing in 23.4. Watch the stretch run again and recognize that Curlin was never going to pass her (unlike Preakness stretch where Street Sense was reengaged only to lose head bob). Filly’s for real and the 5 lb. allowance in Belmont makes more sense than 4 lb. age allowance in BC Classic. I don’t remember Budroyale fans whining about narrow loss to Cat Thief.

Posted by: Shawn on June 12, 2007 at 01:09 AM

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Dan,
The lack of an overt act by Gomez is irrelevant to whether there was any collusion...
Your question regarding any possible collusion between Johnny V and Gomez answers itself...and the premise and conclusion is a non sequitor. If there was any collusion, and no one is saying for sure that anything besides the pace and the rides were funny, the LAST thing Gomez would do is some overt act like blocking out Curlin on the rail, as that would only draw additional unwanted attention and undercut any plausible deniability and outrage the parties could raise in the aftermath when their rides are scruntinized...that is why criminal collusion does not require an overt act--because their rarely is one--and a trier of fact is allowed to draw inferences from the accumulation of seperate, and seemingly incidental facts and conduct so that the "intent" is gleaned from the "gestalt" or sum of the parts when viewed as a whole.
Investigators and lawyers are trained to look beyond the lack of any smoking gun in cases of collusion and conspiracy...it is one of the easiest offenses for a prosecutor to prove because it allows for a presumption.
Perhaps having legal training and knowledge of the law jades me and makes me skeptical of such a horrendous ride on a speed horse by a jockey who admits he wanted to see RTR win...but, thought you might like to know how suspicious this all looks to the trained eye.
I understand that this is all business as usual for horse racing, and the old see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil classical response is part of racing's problem in attracting a larger segment of the sporting crowd. The conflict of interest here is obvious...

Posted by: svhill on June 12, 2007 at 04:26 AM

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To Superterrific,

Hard Spun is the best 3 y.o. to run in all 3 legs of the triple crown and not win this year...and the last several years, but there aren't many any more...but if he would have hit the board in the Belmont he would have been only the 9th horse in history to hit the board in each leg of the TC without winning (according to Belmont historian on ABC)...too bad he finished 4th with that pathetic, overcautious ride by Gomez.
BTW, Alydar is Hard Spun's great grand sire (through Turkoman- broodmare side)...
That is probably where he gets his long legs and heart from, but Alydar is the only horse in history of the TC to place 2nd in all 3 races...I would put him at the top all time.
HS is easily the fastest horse at 1-1/8 miles and under of this group, and he does most of the work in all of his races (except, strangely, the Belmont), and it used to be that to be a truly great American racehorse and a closer, you would have to be able to wire the field at least once. That is why Whirlaway ranked so low in Bloodhorse's top 100, but I loved his from the clouds style. Track historians claim he only ran half the furlongs of his competition, and that "cheapened his wins". Yet Whirlaway's style of running is like many horses today... That was why so many questions concerning the faster horse were answered in a match race...usually won by the speed horse because the closer was forced to run the speed horse's race and would tire well before the speed horse would because closers typically run half a race and develop less stamina than a speed horse. With HS, the rest of this group lacks his sprinters speed and thus must wait until the faster horses tire to make their charge. That is why setting those snails crawl fractions
without a speed horse getting to the front and opening up faster, relaxed fractions was insane, and was a gift that Curlin and RTR took full advantage of when they blew by into the stretch...It is tiresome to wrestle with your rider for 1-1/4 miles and then suddenly be expected to match the closers in a stretch run who were relaxed and ready. Not well planned, for sure. But thats racing.

Posted by: vicstu on June 12, 2007 at 06:12 AM

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To the above.

How could you come to that conclusion when they came home the fastest final quarter mile in belmont history! Strange.

Posted by: Brian on June 12, 2007 at 08:56 AM

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Lemon Drop Kid mediocre? He did go on to win the Travers among other races and has turned into a pretty good sire getting winners on turf and dirt.

Posted by: DManCPR on June 12, 2007 at 09:35 AM

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Thanks for the helpful link, Alan, and good luck hunting for tomorrow's stars.

Posted by: Dr. Dangerously on June 12, 2007 at 09:44 AM

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To John of Peoria,

I'm a completely new fan to racing so this is why I'm asking, I'm not suggesting anything.

And you're right... my question is a little vague. What I'm trying to figure out is who were other great horses (clearly Alydar is one of them) who didn't win any of the three triple crowns. Thanks in advance.

Posted by: superterrific on June 12, 2007 at 09:57 AM

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Dan, RE: Weekend Beyers...while your spelling of the race"is adorable";the Suffolk stakes won by ASK QUEENIE is named "The Isadorable",not "ISA DORABLE". Isadorable was a SUPER Mass.Bred who deserves her name to be spelled right!-Peace,Bob

Posted by: BombsAwayBobGrant on June 12, 2007 at 11:19 AM

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Thanks vicstu!

Posted by: superterrific on June 12, 2007 at 11:19 AM

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To superterrific:

Welcome to the fray...wait until you start watching the babies (2 year olds) run...they're a hoot. You never know what they're going to do.

Another great 3yo never to have won a triple crown race would be Sham (2nd to Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby). If I'm not mistaken, he's one of only 3 horses to have ever run the Derby in under 2 minutes, Secretariat and Monarchos being the others.

There are some monster fillies that never even ran in any of the triple crown races. Ruffian and Go for Wand come to mind. I do not recommend viewing either of their "highlights" though...both suffered horrific breakdowns on national TV. Go for Wand's still makes me sick to my stomach.

I've been watching the races since the 70's but have only recently began handicapping in earnest. It's a fantastic game and everyone has their own theories.

There's nothing like being trackside as the horses thunder for home, you will come to appreciate the pure speed and power that all of them possess. You will also appreciate the Jockey's much more...I don't know how they do it without freaking out.

If you want a real treat go watch some Quarter Horse races...they're pretty much a 20 second mad dash to the finish.

Posted by: John, Peoria IL on June 12, 2007 at 11:42 AM

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Gomez should - at the very least - be given days (a suspension) for his ride on Hard Spun.

Has he answered for this ride yet?

It is plainly obvious that Gomez decided to show his displeasure with Jones by stiffing his horse. Jones, of course, has no clout, and no ability to retailiate.

If you look at the comments of Gomez's agent before the race, it's clear that he and Gomez were displeased about not getting the okay to switch mounts.

His agent repeatedly refferred to Jones, "the guy", "the guy" didn't want to let us off, "the guy" felt like he had a commitment and didn't want to go scrounging for another rider. When I read that reference to Jones at the time, I can clearly remember thinking how inappropriate and disrespectful it was to refer to Jones as "the guy." Would he have called Pletcher, "the guy" or Lukas, or Frankel?

I think now we can see what it all means when put together with Gomez's antics on Hard Spun. I, for one, would like to call for some kind of investigation here. And this is not sour grapes, I picked Hard Spun to be off the board, but this sport has to demand that jockeys be above board in their actions when riding.

This is where racing is hurt by a lack of central oversight, by the lack of a commisioner who can act and act swiftly in such a case where - at the very least - an investigation is warranted, even if done with the sole purpose of assuaging the fears of a broader, less sophisticated audience.

Gomez stiffed the horse, and I don't see how any other conclusion can be drawn, unless there is a competant investigation into what transpired that leads to other findings. It's really in Gomez's best interest for such an inquiry.

Yet, we hear nothing but the echoes of a few lone voices. Is it because the filly won and that's all people really care about? A nefarious act of sabotage was committed in the Belmont Stakes and the act undoubtedly changed the entire shape of the race. Would an honest pace by Hard Spun have changed the outcome?

The sad part is, we'll never know.

Where is the outrage?

Does anyone care about the integrity of this game at its highest level, a level even the most cynical of us long thought was free from criminal manipulation?

This happened. And somebody needs to address it.

So, go write my congressman, is the response? Maybe I will, Lois.

-David B.

Posted by: SlewofDamascus on June 12, 2007 at 11:44 AM

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The arguement over HS and if he one of the best 3yr olds is moot. We are fortunate to have a plethora of good colts and fillies and I think we need to sit back and hopefully enjoy a great summer and fall of racing. When was the last time we had this many good young horses running at the same time. Now they will be freshened after the triple crown and return at their best. After the Haskell, Swaps, Jim Dandy and Travers we will have a better understanding as to who ranks where. I will enjoy these races this year!

Posted by: tony f on June 12, 2007 at 11:55 AM

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Slew you have got to be kidding me! Investigation into Gomez ride? What am I missing here? Pino lost the mount for going too fast too early. What was Gomez to do? I am not a Gomez fan, far from it but I don't understand why you feel an investigation is warranted.

Posted by: tony f on June 12, 2007 at 12:09 PM

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John,

Thanks for the info! I became obsessed mid-summer last year after a trip to Belmont with a friend and haven't looked back!

I'm very familiar with this year's 3 year olds and agree with Tony F that they're a great group sure to bring an excellent summer & fall of racing. I was really looking for more of a historical perspective wondering if it's common for such a good 3 year old to not win even one leg of the TC. Thanks to all for the info!

Posted by: superterrific on June 12, 2007 at 12:14 PM

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Hey Slew,

just want to add to your comments on Beyer figures...

Beyer has a team of experts who collectively cover the entire country. The variation between BSFs at one track and another can be huge because there's no standardized method to compute the figures. If there was, there'd be no need for a team of people-- it could be done much quicker with an automated computer program. As it is, the figures are often adjusted after the fact, so some level of perception or intuition is involved. Beyer also admits that the numbers are basically useless on turf and polytrack. He also claims that they're more accurate in sprints than routes. Then he gets into the argument that you have to interpret HOW the number was earned, blah, blah... at that point, it gets ridiculous and I'd rather take a stand without any numbers, right or wrong.

Personally, I only use BSFs to get an idea of how the public might bet. I've always been hesitant to reduce a race or a performance into a number anyway, but BSFs are just way too subjective for me. I don't even read into fractional/final times that much or go crazy with these lengths-beaten calculations. There are so many factors that could account for a few fifths here and there. It is hard to train your eye to ignore the boldface Beyers though. Anyway, I have nothing against Beyer-- he wrote the book, literally. His numbers work for him and many others, just like Ragozin's numbers work for his followers. they usually disagree on everything too. So be it... to me, they're all just numbers.

C

Posted by: C on June 12, 2007 at 12:26 PM

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I agree that a full investigation of the Gomez ride on Hard Spun should take place. I have seen stiffs at low level tracks by second rate jockeys that were very difficult to detect on first watching. This was so blantent that even the most casual racing fans are howling. I haven't seen this much howling ever in racing. The radio talk show on SIRIUS is jammed with callers complaining. This blog is jammed with complaints. Horse Racing needs to get over the Carnival- lets take the local yokels and cheat them- mentality. The drugging of horses, the stiffs, the crooked trainers who bet on their horses should be outlawed and jailed. They have no right to be on an outcome that they control. DUHHH!! Several of the trainers involved in this years triple crown races have been suspended for doping their horses. Including the winner of the last two races. When are they going to clean up this carnival- lets dope the horses- stiff the races and cheat the public. I have been an avid horse racing fan, a subscriber to Simulcast Weekly, read ever book DRF has come out with, listen daily to the SIRIUS radio show on horse racing. I mean I am avid. But I am getting sick and tired of the cheating and the crooks. Why don't these people go to jail?

Posted by: Holmes on June 12, 2007 at 12:53 PM

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Tony, Hard Spun is a front runner. That's his style. The only time he rates is when he absolutely has no choice, such as the Preakness when FFC and Exchanger went absolutely nuts. Gomez wasn't chosen to turn the horse into a stalker, he was chosen because of his ability to judge pace and react accordingly. That's what separates the best of the best.

To pull the horse back as he did, literally choking him off the lead was clearly not the plan that Jones signed off on. There was absolutely no valid reason for him to do what he did. And he should freely answer the questions about why he did it. If he refuses he should be suspended. His actions helped RTR, there's no doubt about that, no doubt, because it reduced the number of potential winners, of which she remained. That's a fair conclusion based on what everyone knows about race shapes and their effect upon different running styles. Closers are margainilized when the pace is non-existent, as it was in the Belmont.

All I'm asking for is an investigation to keep the game transparent, or make it more transparent than it curently is. If there was no wrongdoing why should anyone fear an investigation? Gomez simply needs to answer the questions, and someone with the authority is needed to judge whther or not his explanation is plausible. If it's not he should face a severe penalty. Racetracks are private property. The jockeys ride at the racetracks discretion. I think it's time that racetracks used this leverage to keep jockeys in line.

- Slew

Posted by: SlewofDamascus on June 12, 2007 at 01:45 PM

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Slew,
I normally agree with you but to this point I can't. You and I both know we see atrocious rides at tracks around the country everyday. If you aksed me it serves the people who own HS right that they would kick Pino to the curve after one ride. Gomez ride was bad, terrible, but criminal or suspect? No Slew, not this one.

Posted by: tony f on June 12, 2007 at 01:55 PM

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RE: Tony's comment attributing Gomez' ride to the criticism of Pino for going too fast early in the Preakness, there is an enormous gulf between the Preakness pace, when Pino had HS stalking and then making the lead after six furlongs in a bit under 1:10, and the Belmont pace, where Gomez had the horse hard held, stalking an absurdly slow 1:15.3.

No doubt Gomez was conscious of not getting into a blistering pace duel, but that doesn't excuse him for riding the race like the Arc de Triomphe either.

Entirely feasible scenario: Gomez sends HS to the front, sets a reasonable pace (say a nice tepid 1:13.1 instead of the central park buggy jaunt that we saw Saturday), accompanied by Slew's Tizzy and CP West, shakes loose from those two at the quarter pole, while still five lengths clear of Curlin and RTR. Does he hold on for the last quarter mile? Most would say probably not, I would say it's about 50/50, but, regardless, it is entirely reasonable to think he might have.

Gomez' ride gave the horse virtually no chance to win, by entirely neutralizing his early speed,the main tactical weapon at his disposal.

I don't know what can be proven or what the average fan can do about it, but I firmly maintain that he should at least be questioned intensively by the stewards and asked to explain his ride, if he can.

Posted by: James Mc. on June 12, 2007 at 02:32 PM

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As Michael said in Godfather III: "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!"

Slew, if Tiago's connections feel they were cheated because of a lack of pace, let them demand the grand jury. If anyone in racing needs to be cleaned up, it's the milkshakers and guys like Asmussen, Lake, and Pletcher. I say 1 strike and you're out when it comes to that.

Gomez did reply: he simply said the horse was rank. I think there's very little reason to doubt that statement: watch the replay going into the first turn. Gomez is leaning to his left while HS is bolting to the outside. He had no control. If you want to go after someone, how about the kid that rode Xchanger before the Preakness. He admitted he tried to burn up Flying First Class in the previous race because he was mad at Lukas for replacing him. HE did something wrong and dishonest. I think Gomez should be taken at his word, whether or not you agree with his decision to rate. Again, watch the replay. The 'back' view shows it all.

BTW, didn't you pick Tiago by a nose over HS at the wire? I'm confused that you said you picked HS to be off the board? I may be wrong, it was about a week ago. Sorry if I am.

C

PS: You said Jones chose Gomez to react accordingly. So why would Jones need to sign off on any plan of action? Whether or not Gomez chose the right tactic is fair for debate, but your post gives me the impression that you're more upset that the pace was too slow and that it diminished Tiago, not that Gomez made a bad decision. I'm not touching that issue again. We can just agree to disagree there.

Posted by: C on June 12, 2007 at 02:41 PM

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Slew man, you are off the deep end with this line of thinking. An investigation??? Are you serious here or are you just stirring the pot??

Was it a perfect ride? No. But there was nothing horrible, or criminal about it.

The horse is a complete head case man, you saw what happened when Pino took him to the outside in the Preakness, he took off. That wasn't Pino asking him to go, that was the horse running off with him. What would people be saying if Gomez let Hard Spun go, and he ran off again and zipped off fractions of 110 or something?? They'd be saying the same things you and the followers are. He was trying to ensure a fast pace so the filly could close, he was in collusion with JV, he fixed the race. Bottom line is there is nothing Gomez could have done to please the trainer because the trainer has himself convinced that Hard Spun is better than he really is.

This is all pathetic in my opinion. After what happened in the Preakness, how in the world could Gomez let that horse cut loose to get the lead??? There was no way he could do that, he would have been killed by the media (as it is he is only getting killed by a few conspiracy theory guys in blogs, wondering why he isn't responding? maybe because everyone in the real world knows the ride wasn't what lost the race for the colt!) for repeating the mistake made in the Preakness. He did the right thing, he tried to get the horse to settle down and relax just off the pace, that was the only way he was going to get a mile and a half. It didn't work, the horse would not settle. That happens in horse racing fellas. If anything you should be screaming at the trainer for not training his horse to relax. That 57 and change work before the derby clearly shows that this guy doesn't know what he's doing.

And then to top it off he blames Gomez and Pino. This guys a clown that should have that horse taken away. If I'm the owners I give Hard Spun to a real trainer, who knows how good the horse could be with someone who actually knew what they were doing??

This investigation talk is out of control now. At first it was funny. But its gone way too far. If you all keep it up I might not be able to take anything that you say seriously again, and I don't want that to happen. I like conversatin with you guys/gals.

Take it easy now and move one. There is no fire there.

Peace

Posted by: Jason on June 12, 2007 at 02:52 PM

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Let me say, I respect the opposite side here. I'm taking a bold, somewhat outlandish stand, and I know it.

You're reading alot into my post that isn't there, C. It has nothing to do with Tiago, who I never mentioned, except incidentaly as a "closer"." My beef with Gomez has to do with failing to ride his horse in a professional manner.

[I picked Tiago to win, followed by RTR. You're referring to a trip scenerio that I wrote about Hard Spun's best chance to win]

But, you make points that are valid and that have to be addressed, C. I've watched the race quite a few times; there's no question that Hard Spun was racing erratically in the beginning and nearly took out RTR when he blew the first turn. But why? You see a rank horse. I would contend that he wasn't rank but headstrong in his desire to run.

I see rider fault when he lost control of Hard Spun on the first turn. Hard Spun had his head down, that's how hard he was pulling and fighting Gomez's restraint after Gomez shifted him to the rail like he was a closer saving ground.

Regardless of everything that happened early, what happened as they entered the backstretch screams out for attention and scrutiny. Hard Spun would have undoubtedly been more relaxed on the front end at that point, forgetting everything that happened out of the gate (where he undoubtedly would have been more comfortable if given his head, instead of pulling so hard his head nearly touched the ground).

The truth is, I'm not sure what is in Gomez's mind when he's riding Hard Spun. It may be a horrible, indifferent ride, or it may be something else. I don't think it hurts to ask, I don't think it hurts to hold rider's accountable for their actions, I don't think it hurts to have standards that are sacredly adhered to on the racetrack. It's those standards that save lives, and when those standards are ignored it puts riders and their horses in trouble. When getting out around the first turn, would Gomez have been excused for hitting RTR and perhaps causing a catastrophe? I don't know, but there would have been inquiries, just as there should be now, if simply to reassure a skeptical audience. Horse Racing has a history of this "stuff." Better to err on the side of caution.

In any event, I won't argue the point further, it's a losing battle, I can see that now, there's just too many possible ways to judge the ride, both innocently and skeptically.

I appreciate all of the comments on the matter. You win (smile).

-Slew

Posted by: SlewofDamascus on June 12, 2007 at 04:38 PM

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2007 Triple Crown

Can we please stop with all of the negative talk about the ride Gomez gave Hard Spun? It was a bad ride, but Gomez did not tank the ride. Leave it at that. He gave it his all. I mean, we just had three outstanding Triple Crown races and all we can talk about is conspiracy theories. We should be celebrating the horses and trainers (and jockeys) that won. For all the cr*p we have given Johnny V., he at least deserves our praise after turning in a winning ride. The lesson we should learn is to be cautious when (1) a jockey gets a new mount on a horse that is hard to ride, and (2) a jockey clearly indicates he wants off a horse.

Along with all of great performances in this year’s Triple Crown, I think I am also going to remember some of the baffling decisions made by the owners and trainers. For instance, why did “the guy” (Jones) keep Gomez on his horse after he asked to be taken off? There were only seven horses in the race and he could have gotten a pretty good rider to replace him. Put all the pressure on Pletcher to decide to go with his first call jockey or the jockey who knows Rags to Riches. I bet Pletcher sure is glad he did not have to make that call. Also, why did “Mr. Carl” focus so much on the Kentucky Derby? He knew his horse was good, so why did he “fail” to even think about what might have been the best path to winning the Triple Crown. All he needed was an extra half length and he would have had a shot in the Belmont. Finally, because Pletcher, Tabor, et al were loaded with other 3 year-olds., we will never know if Rags to Riches could have captured the Triple Crown. I understand the call they made (and it turned out to be a good won because they got a Belmont Stakes victory out of it). It may not have been the right call to run her in the Kentucky Derby, but I do not think she should have had to wait for her stable mates to fail before she got her shot.

After the Derby and Preakness, I my theory on Pletcher was he never really had a “special” horse (that is, one special enough to win the Kentucky Derby). He had good horses, but everyone (including me) automatically thought they were the next super horse because they were with Pletcher. I am still not sold 100% on the fact that Rags to Riches is such a super horse, but I am leaning that way. And, love him or hate him, you had to enjoy his reaction when Rags to Riches won. That emotion is what racing is all about.

I am not only looking forward to the fall races, but also to years down the road when we might see the offspring produced by mating a Kentucky Derby winner to a Belmont winner. If Rages to Riches and the rest of the males in this class do clash in the fall, racing truly would be “making strange bed (or is it shed) fellows.”

It may be wishful thinking, but if Street Sense puts in a good showing this fall, I think he may stay in training through next year’s Dubai World Cup. I think Sheikh Mohammed might want to give him a shot to win the World Cup. It would be a perfect final race before heading to the Sheikh’s breeding shed.

In Other News

Although she was disqualified to fourth, Carly Effect put in another winning effort (Race 6 at Hollywood on 6/9). I wish the stewards had just moved her to 3rd to keep her in the money streak going.

Can someone tell me how I was able cash a $100 daily double wager on Saturday with Cotton Blossom and Better Talk Now? I am not complaining because that score saved my weekend. However, I was shocked the combination paid so much on what seemed to be two obvious choices.

Finally, you may want to add Skiptothetropics (3 yo gelding trained by K. Mulhall) to you watch list. Well bet in his debut, he bombed and finished 8 of 10. He missed the break in his next race (4th at Hollywood on 6/1), but put in a furious run to come in fourth. I have a feeling he will go off at huge odds next time out. I think he was recently gelded and is about to figure out the game. With Mulhall, you know he is going to be running as hard as he can. I think he is worth a shot.

Posted by: Ed on June 12, 2007 at 05:03 PM

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