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FormBlog | August 20, 2007

Weekend Beyers, tons of winners from posters, etc.

Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes action:

Philip H. Iselin (Mth):  Gottcha Gold (E. Plesa Jr./C. Lopez) - 107
Pat O'Brien (Dmr):  Greg's Gold (D. Hofmans/V. Espinoza) - 106
Del Mar Mile (Dmr):  Crossing the Line - NZ (J. Sadler/G. Gomez) - 104
Alabama (Sar):  Lady Joanne (C. Nafzger/C. Borel) - 99
Rancho Bernardo (Dmr):  River's Prayer (P. Capestro/C. Potts) - 99
Pacific Classic (Dmr):  Student Council (V. Cerin/R. Migliore) - 99
Saratoga Special (Sar):  Kodiak Kowboy (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan) - 98
John's Call (Sar):  Revved Up  (C. Clement/K. Desormeaux) - 98
Del Mar Oaks (Dmr):  Rutherienne  (C. Clement/C. Nakatani) - 98
Westerner (NP):  True Metropolitan (T. Jordan/Q. Welch) - 98
Anderson Fowler (Mth):  Cherokee Country (R. Preciado/J. Lezcano) - 97
Green Flash (Dmr):  Barber (A. Sherman/R. Migliore) - 96
Harry F. Brubaker (Dmr):  Masterpiece - Arg (P. Eurton/A. Quinonez) - 96
Yaddo (Sar):  Latitude Forty (J. Hertler/K. Desormeaux) - 95
Lake Placid (Sar):  Sharp Susan (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux) - 94
Iowa State Fair (PrM):  Splendid in Spring (T. Amoss/G. Corbett) - 93
Minnesota Sprint Championship (Cby):  Careless Navigator (V. Hanson/A. Von Rosen) - 91
Victoriana (WO):  Financingavailable (L. Richards/J. McAleney) - 90
Longacres Mile (EmD):  The Great Face (T. Wenzel/J. Gutierrez) - 90
Emerald Distaff (EmD):  Gemstone Rush (J. Hollendorfer/R. Baze) - 89
Lineage (Alb):  Midnite Prospector (R. Gonzalez/M. Perez) - 88
Hatoof (AP):  Pitamakin (W. Mott/R. Douglas) - 88
Super Derby Prelude (LaD):  Forty Acres (J. Lara/C. Gonzalez) - 87
Regeay Island (Elp):  Revival Ridge (P. Huffman/C. Woods Jr.) - 87
Belle Mahone (WO):  Arden Belle (R. Sadler/M. Moore) - 86
Rainbow Connection (FE):  Flashy Pink (W. MacKinnon/D. Hemsley) - 86
Silver Goblin (RP):  Marq French (D. Von Hemel/T. Doocy) - 86
Viejas Casino (Dmr):  Silky Smooth (J. Mullins/A. Gryder) - 86
Concern (LaD):  Starspangled Gator (W. Gowan/E. Perrodin) - 86
Lyrique (LaD):  Whisper to Me (D. Von Hemel/Q. Hamilton) - 86
American Dreamer (CRC):  Zoobstick (J. Bozzo/E. Nunez) - 86
Casey Darnell Pony Express (Alb):  Ghostly Illusion (T. Lello/Q. Bui) - 85
Arlington Oaks (AP):  Marietta (E. Harty/M. Guidry) - 85
Gardenia (Elp):  Pleasant Hill (G. Foley/L. Melancon) - 85
Minnesota Turf Championship (Cby):  Smithtown Bay (D. Van Winkle/S. Martinez) - 85
Van Berg Derby (Cls):  My Secret Star (M. Gaede/B. Butler) - 84
Humphrey S. Finney (Lrl):  P V Lightening (G. Capuano/T. Dunkelberger) - 83
Minnesota Classic Championship (Cby):  Trickyville Dew (K. Von Hemel/D. Bell) - 83
Anna M. Fisher Debutante (Elp):  Miss Red Delicious (M. Hubley/V. Lebron) - 81
Washington Oaks (EmD):  Rivoltella (T. Wenzel/J. Gutierrez) - 81
Sadie Hawkins (CT):  Carnival Chrome (D. Walters/D. Whittaker) - 80
Adirondack (Sar):  More Happy (B. Baffert/R. Bejarano) - 80
Northern Lights Debutante (Cby):  A. J. Bakes (T. Hoffrogge/S. Stevens) - 79
Thomas F. Moran (Suf):  Ask Queenie (L. Lockhart/D. Panell) - 79
Yavapai Downs Derby (Yav):  Party With Todd (M. Ortiz/V. Guerra) - 78
Agassiz (AsD):  Brinello (C. Anderson/M. Anderson) - 77
Ontario Debutante (Wo):  Officer Cherrie (M. Casse/P. Husbands) - 77
Chief Narbona (Alb):  Shezapirate (J. Marr/C. Madeira) - 76
Minnesota Distaff Classic Championship (Cby):  Glitter Star (R. Scherer/S. Martinez) - 73
Don Juan de Onate (Alb):  Irish Glass (C. Martin/R. Jaime) - 72
Land of Jazz (Fer):  Riverruns Thruit (H. Kowalsky/R. Goodgame) - 70
Junior Champion (Mth):  Sales Tax (H. Smith/R. Maragh) - 70
James C. Ellis Juvenile (Elp):  Yonegwa (M. Maker/M. Mena) - 70
Par Four (Del):  Jet Run (M. Petro/N. Petro) - 68
Sunny's Halo (LaD):  Justaclown (B. Young/Q. Hamilton) - 68
Minnesota Distaff Sprint Championship (Cby):  Sentimental Charm (M. Robertson/D. Bell) - 68
Two Year Old Sales (NP):  Brazen Son (G. Tracy/S. Heiler) - 67
C.A.R.F.-C.M.C. Starter Series (Fer):  Wisenheimer (R. Thomas/O. Arriaga) - 66
Continental Mile (Mth):  Atoned (T. Pletcher/C. Decarlo) - 65
Distaff (AsD):  Thunder Sky (L. Harris/K. Johnson) -63
Les Mademoiselle Don Harmon (Fer):  Ice Fantasy (G. Eickerman/D. Boag) - 61
Donnie H. Wilhite (LaD):  Timely Reflection (W. Calhoun/C. Gonzalez) - 61
Two Year Old Filly Sales (NP):  Victory Romance (J. Carroll/Q. Welch) - 56
Ann Arbor (GLD):  Candy Cane (J. Rupert/O. Bernal) - 53
Shortgrass Heritage (MD):  Mischeviousfighter (H. Pilon/T. Moccasin) - 53
Parkland Heritage (MD):  Dorothy Hazel (A. Flegel/A. Stephen) - 52
Northern Lights Futurity (Cby):  Wild Shifter (T. Bethke/S. Martinez) - 51
Woodland Heritage (MD):  Time to Danze (J. Hunter/A. Scarlett) - 37
Western Heritage (MD):  Brilliant Action (H. Pilon/K. Ragbirsingh) - 26

Here are the lifetime past performances for "Big Beyer" Gottcha Gold.  They are running the Breeders' Cup at Monmouth, aren't they?

Download downloadhcprpt1

Handicapper(s) of the Week:

8th Race Saratoga: The Lake Placid, Grade 2
SHARP SUSAN is a versatile and consistent filly on the lawn. Providing the ground is dry, she should have something to say about the top award in this competitive featured event. Subject is still conceding some weight to LADY ATTACK but the pace could be considerably less rigorous then faced in their last match together and SUSAN gets our vote with the ability to be more forwardly placed today than she was in her last.
E/L

Bill Mott and Kent Desormeaux have been an unstoppable combination at the Saratoga meet.  Sharp Susan shook loose early, and never looked back.  She paid $7.30 to win in the Lake Placid.

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Del Mar Oaks:  SUPPOSITION, Valbenny, Ruthrienne*
*Warning – this horse is evil, I have never won for or against her (I did, but my horse was dq’d). And seeing that I feel very strongly about Supposition I am probably going to be screwed, again.
Iselin:  Gottchagold, Indy Wind, Barcola
Gardenia:  Pleasant Hill, High Heels, Leah’s Secret
Steve T

We have a saying in the DRF office that "Evil Always Wins."  Rutherienne did it to you again (Bute On!).  Thankfully, Gottcha Gold ($32.20), and the Pleasant Hill - High Heels exacta ($46.80) got you back on track.  You also had a couple of big-priced runners finish second at Del Mar.

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WEEKEND STAKES PICKS:
AUG18AP9 ApOaks-G3 (9F 3yofil): #5 Marietta (ML:5/2) -> 3yo daughter of Machiavellian was impressive winner of the Iowa Oaks at end of June (remember her - Selena "key race" + nice workout), although uncertain if she will have such a strong pace to close into this time. Jul 25th SAR 5F bullet breeze matched Miss Shops handily work the same day - 3 days later, the 4yo Miss Shop came in 2nd to Ginger Punch in the 9F G2-GoForWand, and Aug 7th bullet work matched fellow Eoin Harty-trained 4yo Barbican who is running in today's Iselin.  (WP #5)
AUG18MTH9 PlsInBCH-G3 (9F 3+yo): #4 Brother Bobby (ML:15/1) -> in a race with lots of speed on a speed favoring track, every so often a longshot closer has a shot to win, and if so...at a price!  Shawn Elliot gets back on the 4yo gelding - he finished 2nd to Lawyer Ron at 39/1 odds in the OaklawnH earlier this year.  Last 2 races have been duds but with excuses (sloppy track and bad start.)  Horse has fired 4 recent bullets at MTH, but this will be his 1st race on the track.  One thing for sure - Gottcha Gold won't have an uncontested lead like the SalvtrMile!  (WP #4) - NOTE: D***!! DAN I JUST READ YOUR PICKS AND YOU SAID THE SAME THING ABOUT THE HORSE!! WE'RE IN TROUBLE!! NOW LIKELY A BET AGAINST!!!
AUG19DMR8 PacifcCl-G1 (10F 3+yo): #4 Awesome Gem (ML:15/1) -> betting against Lava Man is like betting against Santa Claus, but too many factors against him today... Will likely box Awesome Gem with #9 Tiago (ML:6/1), because I would never hear the end of it from Slew if I didn't!...and he has a shot, and #3 Sun Boat (ML:6/1), who is bred for the 10F and loves the track. (WP #4; EXBX #3,#4,#9)
DMR8 DMrOaks-G1 (9F T 3yofil): #8 Rutherienne (ML:3/1) -> shipper from the Spa where she won the LkGeorge last month; flattered by the performances of Sharp Susan and Lady Attack in the Lake Placid yesterday. (WP #8)
DMR3 (MC 40K 3+yo): #5 Wings Of Freedom (ML:6/1) -> exits a 5th place in a key race, 22JulDMR9, a 25K MC.  All 4 horses that beat him in that race have come back to win next-out at DMR.  Was claimed from that race into barn of...Jerry Hollendorfer!! (WP #5)
Alan

Marietta paid $8.80 and $4.80 in a nice performance in the Arlington Oaks.  Well, we doomed Brother Bobby enough for him not to get all the money, but he ran well for second at 10-1, and paid $8.60 to place.  Awesome Gem also ran well at a healthy price (10-1).  He ran second behind Student Council (Bute On!), and paid $12.40 to place.  Rutherienne paid 7-2 odds in the Del Mar Oaks.  Wings of Freedom paid $8.20 to win on Monday.

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Pat OBrien:
1. Greg's Gold-likes surface.
2. Surf Cat-Headley off snide,Nice Horse, poor odds, surface??probably.
3. Publication-still rolling late, third to Speightown and Pico Central, long time ago.
Del Mar Mile
I like the New Zealand bred runners-Crossing the Line and Captain Kurt along with the Italy and Brazilian runner.
1. Crossing the line (NZ)9:2
2. Captain Kurt (NZ)10;1
3. Becrux (ITY) 3:1
4. Out of Control(BRZ)2;1
Andrew Carpenter

The Greg's Gold - Surf Cat exacta paid $12.40.  Crossing the Line paid $6.60 in the Del Mar Mile.

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Pat O'Brien: Greg's Gold over Surf Cat over Publication
Race 6:Giant Gizmo(I'm all over Frankel this weekend)6-1 ML
Gardenia:Pleasant Hill @ 20-1(I'll be lucky to get 8, 9-1)
gucci or gambling

You got the exacta in the Pat O'Brien, Giant Gizmo scored gate-to-wire at $9 at Saratoga, and Pleasant Hill took the Gardenia at $9.60.

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I love Lady Joanne in the Alabama later today!...
Dave Rarey

Lady Joanne looked good upsetting Octave and company in the Alabama.  She paid $11.

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Although I,m totally consfused with the Poly @ Del Mar I will still Make a win bet on #8 Rutheriene in the Oaks if she at least 5/2.  Will also exacta box Rutheriene with #9 Valbenny.
johnny z

Rutherienne handled the cross-country trip without a problem.  She paid $9.40 to win, and the exacta with Valbenny paid $24.20. 

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Dan/Alan - other than doing this manually, is there a way to collect this information without hand entering everything?
Steve T

I can only think of using the DRF Plus debut sire reports for gathering some information on the sires, but that would only be for debut runners.  For instance, Old Topper is 3-27 (11%, $3.18 ROI) with debut runners in 2007.  Of those 27 runners, five finished in the top three over synthetic surfaces

Zoom Zip Zoom (3rd - 6/3 HOL, 17-1 odds),
I Dig Her (2nd - 6/14 HOL, 3-1),
No Means Maybe (1st - 6/21 HOL,  5-2),
Top Leese (2nd - 6/24 HOL,  30-1)
Check This Topper (1st - 8/16 DMR, 31-1)

The drawbacks here are that we don't have expanded information for all of Old Topper's runners solely over synthetic surfaces.  I know he's 3-27 for the year with debut runners, and two of those wins came over synthetic surfaces, but I don't have the access to every one of his synthetic starters.  Hopefully, that's down the road.  While I know that the record-keeping is extremely tedious, I find that entering the data by hand enables you to "know" the data better, and thus you can filter information by feel and instinct.  You guys are doing a great job with your research, and I hope you reap the rewards.

***

Do you know what was up with the stewards at Saratoga Saturday? I really don't see the reason why Octave wasn't placed 2nd and why Lady Joanne wasn't placed third. After watching the head-on, it was clear that Octave was coming through when Lady Joanne cut her off. Octave was much the best in that race and if she hadn't been cut-off, she would have come through and won.
David

I'll disagree with you on that one.  Octave had her chance to come through on the inside in upper stretch, and couldn't do it.  In my opinion, Lady Joanne had cleared Octave when she did drift to the inside, and the interference was minimal at best. 


***

It's been a rough weekend.  Let's take a look at Rated Fiesty's pedigree tomorrow.

Take care,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman on August 20, 2007 | Permalink

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Comments

Dan and others,

If you're Doug O'Neill, why not ship Lava Man to Monmouth right now, send a trusted assistant along, let him be stabled there, get acclimated, have 5-6 works over the track, maybe give him a prep at Belmont. I mean we know he doesn't ship well, but this would seem like a strategy that could work. Lava Man would very much like the Monmouth track I think, I could see him leading or being just off the pace in the Classic and having a great chance through the stretch on the speed favoring surface. Obviously this isn't a strategy a trainer would employ with every horse, but given Lava Man's shipping problems and the enormity of the race, don't you have to try something different? If he's at Monmouth for 2 months before the race, or even Belmont, and he still runs an awful race, then I think they're justified in never taking him out of California again. Is this something O'Neill would consider?

Posted by: Dave on August 21, 2007 at 01:46 AM

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GOTTCHAGOLD

If you had asked me to look at him before his last race and tell you whether he could go a mile and a quarter, I would of said I have a better chance. Then he runs a mile and an eighth and opens up on the place horse. Note to owner: see Idiot Proof, stay at Monmouth!

Monmouth: 8-5-2-0 (63% Win)
Elsewhere: 14-2-1-1 (14% Win)

Now I'm no math genius, but I think I can figure this one out...

Posted by: Steve T on August 21, 2007 at 02:24 AM

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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS

Okay now that we have suffered through Polytrack and Cushion Track, it's time for Tapeta Footing! Supposedly it holds up at -3 to 120 degrees.

Here is a quick blurb on Tapeta from their site:

"Designed by trainer Michael Dickinson, Tapeta™ Footings represents the culmination of a life-long pursuit to create the perfect surface for equine athletes. Tapeta™ (Latin for "carpet") is specially designed first and foremost to protect the horse's well-being, providing a cushion that protects the legs and feet of horses in training from the injuries common on industry-standard dirt surfaces. The patented wax-coated mixture of sand, rubber and fiber is impervious to weather and never turns to mud, and is the only system on the market today that has been tested over time to hold up under varied and severe weather conditions."

This is gonna be a blast, one state with four different main track surfaces. Handicap those shippers! Gonna have to ask IBM if we can borrow Deep Blue to run a race card for us. Wait, it can only handle 10,000,000,000,000 calculations a second, that would take it a week to handicap one race...

Posted by: Steve T on August 21, 2007 at 02:51 AM

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Is anyone impressed with Lear's Princess's consistency? 5 starts and never worse than 2nd yet!

Posted by: RJ on August 21, 2007 at 03:41 AM

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Okay, thank you for clearing that up. I just wish we could have seen the view from the inside rail that they show at Arlington. That would have been helpful. And, I guess I was just a little biased considering I had win money on Octave.

Posted by: David on August 21, 2007 at 04:04 AM

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What is up with the inconsistency of the Stewards @ the Spa? Have the so called stewards from the recently concluded Colonial meet went up there and performed another one of their egregious decisions. Handicapping is tough enough without having to battle another set of pinheads, most of whom were jockeys (go figure!)

Posted by: tony f on August 21, 2007 at 10:40 AM

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Hey, Dan:

Any information on why Sun Boat was eased out of the Pacific Classic?

I was frustrated that none of the media sources (ESPN, this site, Bloodhorse.com -- I missed the TVG broadcast) mentioned the incident at all or followed up on what had happened to the horse. It seems to me that something went wrong for him to be beaten 39 lengths when he'd just won Grade 2 over the same surface.

Posted by: Kyri on August 21, 2007 at 10:50 AM

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First, regarding the Alabama, I'm for "less not more" when it comes to dq'ing horses (didn't have a bet on the race so I'm nuetral as far as money is concerned) Regarding the new "debut sire, etc." reports, will a link be placed somewhere so that I don't have to save the email to access the records. Last but not least, I recently purchased lifetime pp's for a horse our partnership claimed by the name of Road Show, but when I went back to access them to print out for our trainer they were gone. How long do I have access once I buy these (and since I purchased the product, shouldn't I at least have access for a couple of weeks)

Posted by: Stephen Taylor on August 21, 2007 at 11:32 AM

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To: LAVA MAN
"PLEASE Come To Boston for The MASSCAP!"
With your Grade 1 wins, you're in line to win an EASY Half-Million with the incentives Suffolk has written in the condition book for the event.
P.S.: ANY GIVEN SATURDAY
& other Todd Pletcher second-stringers..see above! While you may only score $400,000K for the win, It's a PERFECT PREP for the Breeders Cup!
The MASSCAP is five weeks before the B.C.,& a Three-Hour-Van Ride from Monmouth. Heck, maybe Larry Collmus will come home and call the race!
- Bombs Away! Bob

Posted by: BombsAway Bob Grant on August 21, 2007 at 11:42 AM

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Dan and all posters,

I have been reading this great blog for the past few weeks and must commend you all on some great observations on this sport we all love. I have been most impressed by your recent comments regarding Del Mar's Polytrack (especially Slew) which I feel will ruin racing at my favorite race track of the last 30 years if it is not improved upon -- or as my screen name implies moves back to dirt at some time in the future -- though maybe it's too much to ask to actually move back to dirt in Southern California given all the obvious politics involved. I participate on another blog and have been quite vocal about my perceived problems with Del Mar's Polytrack (the obvious fact that many a thoroughbred won't run on it at all, too much kickback, removing the brilliance of racing, etc.) and most of what I get there is that I am behind the times and don't care about the welfare of the thoroughbred. Why does it all have to be mutually exclusive? How about a fair surface for all ... or at least most? Thanks again for all your insights.

Regards,
back2dirt (aka Robert)

Posted by: back2dirt on August 21, 2007 at 04:26 PM

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dan,slew,alan,lenny,and sciac22; thanks for taking the time to respond to my handicapping contests query last week // it was revealing about the experience and talent that each of you have, among several others that contribute to the formblog and besides that, it was interesting to read about what you had done in the past regarding said contests// i realize that i lack some things that would make me competitive in a handicapping contest which i will address because, even though there are always going to other handicappers who are superior to yourself , why enter a competition if you are going to be grossly out classed by the majority of the handicappers entering the same contest // grooms, owners, trainers, jockeys, professional handicappers all have information, (most times different information from one another), that the weekend punter doesn't have about a particular horse on the particular day that the horse is meant to run// the old adage that "knowledge is power" is eminently true in handicapping arena // the reason i stressed the computer aspect of handicapping is that every time you get a big contest winner, he inevitably mentions (perhaps for monetary gain) the computer program that he used during the contest that apparently led him to victory/// for example the fellow a few weeks back who touted the Massa program //

scian22 / i believe it was you who mentioned the $2600 trifecta from last years BC turf classic // i had to laugh about your reference to BTN // i rolled english channel around in the tri with red rock and another horse whose name escapes me, but i had my boss with me who had never bet on a horse in her life, choose one other horse // the horse she chose...BTN //

C / dan was gracious enough to link me to Powwrful Summers PP's last week // i was under the assumption that PS had dropped in class last out when i commented and what i had to say didn't apply to the situation // i am sorry // next time i will look before i leap//

Slew // i liked your last few postings about Powerful Summer and his running lines are interesting // i see he had another good 5 furlong work and i expect him to be going soon // i i think that money can still be made on him if he stays in the same class, raises a little, or goes on grass next out // from looking at his last PP's, it looks like he was out to win last out at a good price// if he drops in class, then i guess it depends on the competition and i might be looking to bet him the second race back under that scenario // i don't have the service to tell when he will run next//

also, chicago gerry did pick Gregs Gold and mentioned Awesome Gem in the formblog....just thought i would throw that in there... thanks, chicago gerry

Posted by: chicago gerry on August 21, 2007 at 05:01 PM

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Dan, I'm with back2dirt on Delmar, I mean 24 and 47 and change for a Grade 2 sprint, and then Bordanero fades like he just went 20 and 43 and change, what a joke this polytrack. It has nothing to do with the horse, its all about the track owners being able to save money with no track maintenance. When they get it fine tuned, you will never see a tractor or water truck again. This reminds me when professional sports went to astroturf in the seventies. That certainly worked out well? I decided enough and am no longer wagering on polytrack, it enabled me to cash the Ellis pick 4 on Saturday (649.10 for 50 cents) love the dirt and turf!!!

Posted by: KC Mark on August 21, 2007 at 05:46 PM

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I in no way support a switch back to dirt, but something has to be done about the polytrack in Del Mar. Student Council winning with a 99 beyer is a JOKE!

See if you can get some info on what happened to Lava Man in the race. I was seated at the end of the stretch and watched closely as he was taken off the track following the race. He had a significant limp in his front left leg. Multiple people seated in my area pointed out the same thing. I'm no horsemen, but something wasn't right.

Posted by: Supah Blitz on August 21, 2007 at 05:56 PM

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chicago gerry

If you want to follow a horse, you have a great tool right here.
Check out the option bar at the top of the Drf home page, and click on 'tools'. You can sort by horse, trainer, race, etc. You can elect to be notified via email on workouts, entries, and results.
It's a great resource and it's free. You just need to register, and that's painless.

Being a novice, this blog has been a great source of information, and the chatter is priceless!
Thanks Dan for having such a great forum for all, and your continued dedication to answering all the postings.

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on August 21, 2007 at 06:12 PM

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KC Mark,

i totally agree. what they arent saying is how many are breaking and getting hurt in the morning...anyone have an angle on that stat...it would seem to me with that quicksands surface out at del mar it really has to hurt the action of the horse.

Posted by: jim on August 21, 2007 at 06:31 PM

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Supah Blitz,

While I respect your opinion on not going back to dirt surfaces I feel that it could happen as long as they did not go back to the same dirt surfaces and were more vigilant in understanding how maintence plays a part in keeping dirt surfaces safe. Interestingly, Bruce Headley made comment that California's dirt surfaces were just fine until they began adding wood products to the mix -- could that have been the key to California's dirt surface ills of the recent past? As well, are you asking for all race tracks in the US to make the transition to synthetic surfaces? or just California? I just can't see Saratoga or Churchill Downs running on a surface "comprised of polypropylene fibers, recycled rubber and silica sand covered in a wax coating" ... can you?

Robert (aka back2dirt)

Posted by: back2dirt on August 21, 2007 at 06:58 PM

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Good pick for you all tomorrow Ellis Park race 2. I've been following Arian Rose since I just missed with her @ 43-1 in a 6 furlong 30K claimer @ Churchill. She has a big late rally. Following a flop in another 30K she was dropped to a 15K and ran a good 2nd. She's again in for 15K tomorrow and stretches out to a mile that should fit her masterfully. 7-2 ML would be more than fair.

Posted by: DManCPR on August 21, 2007 at 09:38 PM

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Supah Blitz--that horse beat me by a nose, twice as it was a three way photo in the 05 Lone Star Handicap and would have won if I got one more jump--thanks for the memories.

I'm done with California synthetic/pathetic racing-If I want to throw darts, I'll go to a local bar and do the same.

PS. Doug O'neal said lava man kicked something around the barn and scraped his leg-maybe that's his party line and he did indeed get hurt during the race.

Posted by: Andrew Carpenter on August 21, 2007 at 09:38 PM

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This Del Mar Poly-T thing is eating me alive. I look at this way, you either forget it, or figure it out. While I haven't even came close to any consistencys, I think Alan, and Steve T may really be on to at least an advantage, and thats really what we are all looking for; how-ever slight it might be. I have done some home work on one of the spread sheets that Alan provided, and there is more fact than fiction to the winning sire theory.
Well I took this a bit farther. I know no one, including Crist, and Beyer puts any credence in Dosage, or Center of Distrubtion. We all laugh with Kenny Mayne on the ESPN broadcast when he mentions CD, but there maybe something with CD and the Del Mar trash (Poly Track). I don't pay alot of atttention to Do, or Cd except for the Kentucky Derby. I start a spread sheet arount the 2nd week of Jan. for my top 25-40 Derby contenders, and I research the Do, and Cd on all of them. Has that made me alot of money? I really can't say yes straight forward, but I do consider all of my angles in my bets, my ROI for the Derby would blow away my ROI for any other race, or any other betting I do throughout the year. I belive there may be an angle to low CD numbers with Poly Track winners. (incidentally I found nothing that stood out with the Dosage #'s)
Unusal Heat CD 0.44
Old Topper 0.95
Tribal Rule 0.33
Event of the Year 0.93
Lit de Justice 0.67
and by the way Lit de Justice is also the #1 winning Maiden Sire.
I know this is getting lenghty, but bear with me. Student Council who won the pacific, CD is 0.67, Will, won a 1 1/16 20k clm on 8/11, has a CD of 0.85. Just for kicks, Dominican who beat SS in the Blue Grass at Kneeneland has a CD of 1.00.
So the whole point to this is, if I find a horse entered @ DM, with a sire @ the top of the Spread sheet with a CD of 0.75 or less I will be laying a few $ on him (her).
Also the Ballston HDCP Thursday looks like one of the best betting races all year.
Have not hit one in about 2 weeks, but I will post an Ellis Park P-4 later tonight or early tommorow.
Johnny Z

Posted by: johnny z on August 21, 2007 at 11:15 PM

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Andrew -
It was a four way photo and I get to look at it every day. I have it hanging above my desk.

Lava Man was limping long before he got to the barn, but maybe it could have been exhaustion. Not sure.

Back2Dirt -
I agree that the surface is garbage from a betting perspective, but we can't shake the fact that only ONE horse has broken down on the surface this season including workouts. I think we all would have less of an issue if it was cushion track. One interesting note that I observed on opening day. The main club house has a display showing how polytrack works and how it should be installed. The displays also has pictures of the actual installation. What is interesting about the photos is that they should the material being installed in a different order then the display says it should. Maybe the display is wrong...or maybe it was installed incorrectly...which is creating the problem. Maybe that is a stretch, but it is worth noting. The display is in first floor entrace of the main grandstand.

Posted by: Supah Blitz on August 22, 2007 at 12:28 AM

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Johnny Z
Being new to this game, that is the one thing I have picked to focus on, DP/ DI/ CD of the horses running in a particular race..
It has actually helped me considerably with 2 yo first timers, and 2 yo maidens.
(short distances 4 1/2f to 5 1/2 f.) I'm learning to apply other variables, but I like to look at these numbers.
(Sara #2 on 7/26. Twisted Tale, Forest Trail, Buona Sera- Tri paid $347.50)
and I picked them based on those numbers.
Go fiqure.

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on August 22, 2007 at 12:45 AM

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DMAN,

I hope you don't mind, and I'm somewhat ambivelant about using your pick tomorrow at Ellis Park - Arian Rose - to provide a sort of pedigree test. I thought it would be a fun, a real-time challenge (if you will), and since this is her first try at a route, I think a good candidate, also, for a pedigree enquiry. Again, I hope you don't mind. Hopefully, one or two of us can learn something and have some fun with it, too.

We've had a lot of discussions on this board lately about pedigree and it's uses, and I thought this might be a good horse to do a pedigree analysis, as it relates to her ability to get 8 furlongs. It's also interesting to note, that even at 5 years old, pedigree can still come into the equation.

This is Arian Rose's (2002) 1st start at 2 turns; she's a 5yo mare, she has 1 win (at 6 furlongs), accomplished at Hoosier Park in a MSW (14k purse), equivalent to something like a Maiden Claiming, 20-18k in Northern California. It's not the bottom of the barrel by any means.

Her damn, Casual Success (1996), has 2 starters - Pokey Pine and, of course, Arian Rose. Pokey Pine is 2 for 14 with both wins sprinting, one at 6 and 1/2, the other at 7 furlongs. Pokey tried routing twice, finishing 2nd and 3rd. He broke his maiden sprinting against MSW company at Calder (which is something like MC 32k at Gulfstream or Santa Anita)in his 7th start (sloppy track). In PP's 2 route attempts, he was 3rd in his first try while 9/5 odds against 6 other rivals in a MSW at Calder (with R. Homeister aboard, the same rider who will be riding Arain Rose tomorrow). He tried again at 1 and 1/16th miles in his first start against winners in a NW1 Alw at Calder. This time he was a 6 to 5 odds on favorite against 5 other rivals, again in the slop (like his maiden win). Pokey ran 3rd.

Siblings can often give us an idea about what to expect when extra ground is added. In this case, it's somewhat mixed, not a glowing endorsement, and not a throw away either. Both of Pokey's tries at a route did result in ITM finishes, however, looking deeper, the fields were small and he was heavily bet in both, making the 2nd and 3rd an under-achievement. He also seemed to favor the off going, and hence the 3rd is very disappointing.

Often, if there is not a lot to go on with siblings of the runner in question, or if the information is mixed, we can go to the dam herself, and also her siblings.

The Dam of both Pokey and Arian Rose is Casual Success as we already know. She herself was a sprinter, having won 3 races from 10 starts, all sprinting, with an AWD of exactly 6 furlongs. Casual Success was strictly a sprinter, the connections never even tried her at a route on dirt. What of her sibs? She had 5 sibs that made it to the races, 3 of whom won at least 1 race.

Rare Coin (1992) made 52 starts, winning 5, all sprinting, with an AWD of 6.1 furlongs. He tried routing 4 times, with 1 ITM finish, a 2nd.

Lemhi Slew (1993) was a non-winner in 4 starts, including 1 off the board route try.

Steve's Lucky Coin (1994) was 4 for 20 with 1 route try, an off the board finish; he had an AWD of 6.1 furlongs.

Anythingbutordinary (1995) never raced, while Casual Success (1996) we've already looked at.

Rocknrollgoodtime (1997) was 1 for 9, with that win coming in a route (1 and 1/16th); in 4 route tries, he had 1-2-1 record. Not too bad.

Scootin In Heels (1999) was zero for five, with no route tries, and Bill Middleton (2000) was zero for seven in the UK.

Casual Success and her siblings had 1 winner from 10 dirt route starts, with Casual Success being strictly a sprinter. The AWD of Casual Success and her siblings combined is approximately 6.5 furlongs. Outside of the one sibling, I think it is fair to say that this is a family of sprinters.

Just for fun, why don't we look at the second dam of Arain Rose (the dam of Casual Success and her siblings). That would be Coin (1987), foaled the year I got into the game. Coin was 2 for 12, with both wins coming at a route (woohoo!). Coin's AWD is 8.5 furlongs. Her only other sib to win, Buster's Brick was 3 for 9 routing with an AWD of 7.7 furlongs.

In spite of the positive infor on the 2nd dam, I'm still leary about backing Arain Rose as a 2nd choice (7/2) in a race where the favorite is 3-1. Arain Rose's dam (Casual Success) has yet to have a route winner, and she herself was solely a sprinter, as were the great majority of her sibs.

The sire of Arain Rose, the popular runner, Captain Bodgit (1994), won more races sprinting than routing, 4 to 3. However, his best speed figure came routing. Nevertheless, his AWD is 7.1, 7 furlongs essentailly.

The sire of Casual Success (the dam sire of Arian Rose) was Tricky Creek (1986), who was 9 for 37, with 7 wins coming routing. His AWD was a robust 8.56 furlongs.

All in all - from strictly a pedigree point of view - I would not run to my ATM in order to back Arain Rose, who beacause of her style (which is a closing style sprinting) may very well go off favored. Many punters equate a closing sprinting style with success at 2 turns, which is not always the case.

Now, when taking into account DMAN's recommendation, we have a different story, but again, I was not considering that; I am only looking at the pedigree potential, and what's interesting about pedigree is that it can be analyzed differently, sometimes much differently, depending on who's doing the analysis. Some people don't care about the dam side, and strictly look at the sires. I, personally, love to explore the dam side. It can be illuminating at times, and other times monetarilly rewarding when one finds a hidden star.

I can't wait to see how Arian Rose finishes tomorrow, strictly for fun, and the result will not decide anything really, but it's fun, at least to me.

I hope she wins for DMAN!

Thanks for providing the 1st time router, DMAN. I had no idea what I would find, but there it is, anyway.

Have a good week, all. Make that a great week!

-Slew

Posted by: SlewofDamascus on August 22, 2007 at 01:00 AM

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Like many of you, I have spent some of my down time giving the subject of Del Mar and its Polytrack much thought--even in light of my last screed which pretty much called the surface, "crap" and impossible to get a handicapping angle on...

I still feel about the same..
I guess I am in the same camp as Andrew and C...I just can't justify wagering on any races at DMR any more...no matter who is running, the favorite and the longest shot seem to be on equal footing and just as likely to hit...and like C, I find it unnerving when my longshot value horse is outfinished by an even longer shot--and this has happened more than once...
There is something wrong with that surface, especially in the late afternoons when, as John Sherriffs has stated, it becomes "soupy" and larger horses have trouble finding traction on it. It in no way is reflective of the true speed and stamina of these horses--and places certain horses at an advantage over other horses....so much so that I no longer consider it a fair competition worthy of handicapping.

It is not the same as a speed favoring track, which is simply a track which is tightly packed or with very wide, pitched turns, or both.
All that means is that the fastest horse with stamina might win the race...unless the pace is too hot. In that case, the speed favoring track will still yield for closers and stalkers. Either way, everyone at this blog seems to know how to handicap a dirt track favoring speed...in that even on a speed favoring dirt track, the speed must be manageable and rationed, or that speed will be backing up before the finish.

And it is not the same as a deep dirt track, which plays to closers and stalkers with stamina. That loose, cuppy dirt surface...we understand how this plays out as well...and we also understand that lone speed that is allowed to get loose on the lead is dangerous on a deep, yielding dirt track, if the fractions are easy...
Either way, it can be handicapped and broken down based on a number of factors that are based on priciples which have been proven over time...and it appears that the "cushion" synthetic track plays similar to the yielding track...but it is more or less fair and predictable...

However, this Polytrack, and more specifically, the Polytrack at Del Mar, is a joke...they might as well be racing over Crisco shortening...late afternoons in particular are totally unpredictable...and although I have hit a few races at Del Mar, luck is more involved than anything else...its like Andrew says- throwing darts, and sometimes with a blindfold on. Because at least with a dartboard you can see what you are throwing at...but no one really knows how this Polytrack is going to flesh itself out...its all theory, and we do not even know the long term effects of the horses running on it really is==because they have not run on it long. Again, projections....

I am sure that Alan and Steve T. have the closest thing to a system to somehow break this track down and shed light on which horses may get the track based on pedigree and past performance on the track broken down by sire...
Thats a good starting point, but there are too many variables, and these variables are in a state of flux...for instance, someone please explain to me what in the world happened to Sun Boat...31 lengths back after winning on this track in a graded stakes races weeks earlier. Oops, better throw out that requirement of running well on this track before...did not make a damn bit of difference to SB.

So, I am through with Del Mar...finito. On to Saratoga and Monmouth--hell, Laurel and Ellis Park as well.

And to SV Hill, the point raised about the insanity of the breeding industry and the need for reform or at least stepping into the 21st century is not lost on me...

I will address this at length another time soon, but just let me add that this industry is in trouble as long as it allows the tail to wag the dog...or the breeding shed to wag the horse racing industry...after all, what it the world are we breeding the horses to do? Produce good runners or to breed? Like Steve Asmussen says, today's top race horses are really breeding stock and someone lets you run them for a little while...

In my sports law classes at law school, following the Barbaro tragedy, much attention was directed at the horse racing industry because the media made it seem that Barbaro was being kept alive in hopes that he would one day cover a mare...
Without exception, every lawyer and student in the class, as well as the professor, was amazed that in today's world that a stallion's "speciman" could not be gathered and adminstered by artificial means like it is in other parts of the world, and in greyhound racing, show horses, and almost every other professional breeding enterprize...

Yet the American horse racing industry maintains the creed that to be a throughbred racehorse, a stallion must cover a mayor. Since when does the manner of procreation determine what has been created? It is who and what the sire and mare are, not whether they did it preacher style, that should determine what a racehorse is...but as long as their are big bucks to be made by some 55 year old child who inherits his money, we will never see this archaic rule change...

Horse racing, as an industry, is only as big as its biggest names...had Smarty Jones been allowed to run for 2-3 more years, who knows? Every year in May, names like Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun or Any Given Saturday become household names...Now, how many of those horses will be running next year? Answer- Not one of them will be running next year. They will all be at the breeding shed, long before they are even a mature adult horse and before they have run their best race...
The inmates are running this asylum...until it becomes more important to race a horse than to breed a horse, horse racing will forever be a compromised industry held hostage by the very organism that it helped to create--breeding. The solution is simple, but as long as breeders are permitted to throw outrageous amounts of money at horses with zero accountability, in a high risk all or nothing business, nothing is going to change...Breeding has become the leach that has consumed from its host (racing) to the point of being larger than its host, and has now turned to begin the process of consuming the host the created it...soon, there will be nothing left but $5,000 claimers, a horse that wins the Derby and retires, and a bloated breeding industry that produces race horses that are actually breeding stock.

It is turning the entire purpose of horse racing and breeding on its head, putting the cart before the horse...

Posted by: vicstu on August 22, 2007 at 01:08 AM

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I should probably add a disclaimer to my previous marathon post - many sprinters can get a mile (at least) when the conditions and circumstances favor him or her. If a closer, an abundance of speed could help the cause, as could a closing track bias. If a speed horse, lone speed could provide the winning push, as could a speed-biased track.

Chicago Gerry, nice handicapping! I noticed it, but forgot to give props. Also, don't think you have no chance in these contests. I'm betting that you're continuously improving, and as you know I like reading your thoughtful (and sometimes very amusing) posts. You've got as good a chance as anybody of making it to Vegas. Maybe they will ship Powerful Summer up north to my area, Bay Meadows? I don't think Polytrack is a good option, but Cushion track would be fine, if it's the same as Hollywood. DRF has an excellent horse watch system. That's where I put all of my watch horses. The e-mail notifications are always prompt.

Thanks.

-Slew

Posted by: SlewofDamascus on August 22, 2007 at 01:17 AM

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That's right, a four way photo and I ran 2nd and 3rd and Jerry Baileys horse ran 4th by a head. Watch the reply, next jump I win.

Great race, either way. I had crytograph? and ? and Bailey was on Dallas native, um, Todd Pletcher's horse 4th.

Lone Star is a nice facility.

Posted by: Andrew Carpenter on August 22, 2007 at 01:43 AM

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SR Vegas, this is too weird, I was on vacation in Las Vegas, was betting at the Golden Nugget and hit the same Tri you did. I have to admit it had nothing to do with DO, or CD, actually from my notes I thought Forest Trail was a sure winner, so I played a box. Anyway I'm glad to see I am not the only racing degenerate that considers CD, and DO. It wasn't that many years ago that if a horses had a 4.00 or above dosage they were an automatic throw out in the T-Crown, or any race of a distance.
Also to add to my credibility, or put a punctuation mark on my theory of low CD (maybe making a differece), Gregs Gold, who won the Pat O'Brien with a 110 Bris speed has a CD of 0.86.
Slew was very impressed with your analogy of Arian Rose. First of all the horse is running @ Ellis Park, which dear and next to my heart. Secondly your break-down of the pedigree was 2nd to none. I was impressed that you paid so much to detail to the dams side. I feel, or believe the dams side will show the true side of a horse's speed or endurance. While the sires side will show the horse's sprinting ability, or turn of foot. Albiet the pedigree can go and, be much deeper than those 2 subjects. For instance tomorrow Dan is going to discuss Rated Fiesty' Pedigree. I haven't done any study for R Fiesty, but I know on the dams side Damascus is 2x, which with out a doubt RF should at least have a good turn of foot, and and be able to press the lead.
Anyway I like to tell myself at least once a day I don't know anything about this sport. That way I keep my mind open to anything new or different. Ellis Park 8/22 P-4
6th 1,3
7th 1,5,6
8th 2,4,8
9th 3,4,7 .50c--$27.00 bet
Good Luck to all Johnny Z

Posted by: johnny z on August 22, 2007 at 02:31 AM

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Apologies for the double-post...just wanted to be clear regarding the second half of my last post...I am not proposing doing away with breeding farms or even conventional horse on mare breeding...However, since there is generation upon generation of elite horses being retired at the end of their 3 year old seasons, there should be an option available to anyone wanting to race a valuable stud prospect because, after all, they were bred to race and technically a stallion is an adult horse sent to stud (and a 3 and 4 year old is a colt, not an adult stallion). I simply shared the view of many outside of thoroughbred racing that an exemption should be made so that the specimans could be collected and stored in test tube vials in giant refrigerators...and the horse could keep running and if anything does happen to where the colt would not be able to physically mount, well, the sperm bank is open...After all, the entire purpose of early retirement is so they can physically perform the duties of a stallion...Those who chose to race past the age of 3 should have an option...and adding stakes races is not going to do it...nothing is, because their value as a stud trumps that many times over in this Alice in Wonderland, Through the Looking Glass world of horse racing...what I was suggesting merely subsidizes the risk with an alternative way to reproduce from an outstanding race horse...

I know that most of our time is used posting things about a certain race, or a certain horse, formulas, 2 year olds of note, value picks, styles, etc., and all of that is the bulk of what we chat about...but sometimes we need to be able to see the forest through the trees...if we want this game to have a future different from the one it has now. And that future is 1 track and 100 breeding farms...
After all. Couples unable to breed by conventional means or who do not want the hastle of dating can simply go to a sperm bank...if it is good enough for the human species, it is easily good enough for the equine racer.

I would bet my bottom dollar that it would keep many fine 3 and 4 year olds on the track, at least more than are under this antiquated system stacked against the horse ever racing again in favor of the breeding shed.

Posted by: vicstu on August 22, 2007 at 02:58 AM

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vicstu is right on the money regarding the anachronistic breeding rules. I'll go further and I am NOT being facetious! It's 2007. Two years ago, the vets at Texas A&M cloned a bull. That's right, connect the dots. I want to see Secretariat IIc, Seattle Slew IIc, Affirmed IIc, Alydar IIc, Barbaro IIc etc. (the "c" stands for CLONE!). Any horse, past or present from which we can get some viable cells can be cloned. (Technically, these clones won't be 100% genetically identical because the mitochondrial DNA from the ovum isn't the same between "cloner" and "clonee".) Talk about a lightning bolt of excitement for the racing industry! Can you imagine a Kentucky Derby in 2020 in which Affirmed IIc races against Alydar IIc ?!! Throw in some other clones of the greats and you've got yourself the race of the century. Of course, if that race took place on Del Mar's polytrack, Student Council IIc would probably win, haha.
Alas, my little fantasy above would probably not come true even if cloning were legal/facile/encouraged because we must always remember the importance of NURTURE, too. Perhaps Seattle Slew IIc's early lifetime environment/experience would cause him to not have the same spirit/heart/ability of the original SS. What irony would that be?!!: Seattle Slew IIc sells for $20,000,000 as a yearling and never even wins a race whereas SS was sold for $17.5K and you know the rest of that story.
The bottom line is that we should use today's science and technology to its fullest in order to breed/produce the most robust, drug-free, soundest and fastest horses.

Posted by: John C. on August 22, 2007 at 04:51 AM

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DEL MAR SIRE STATS (through 08-20-2007)

Here are the updated sire stats for Del Mar:

Unusual Heat 8
Old Topper 7
Tribal Rule 6
Event of the Year 5
In Excess 5
Swiss Yodeler 5
Bertrando 4
Forestry 4
Lit de Justice 4
Mr. Greeley 4
Forest Camp 3
Gulch 3
High Brite 3
Six Below 3
Slewledo 3
Stormy Atlantic 3
Tale of the Cat 3
Bartok 2
Black Minnaloushe 2
Boulder Dam 2
Carson City 2
Cat Thief 2
Cee's Tizzy 2
Chief Seattle 2
Comic Strip 2
Deputy Minister 2
Devon Lane 2
Explicit 2
Exploit 2
Fantastic Light 2
Forest Wildcat 2
Fusaichi Accele 2
Fusaichi Pegasus 2
Game Plan 2
Giant's Causeway 2
Johannesburg 2
Lord At War 2
Lord Carson 2
More Than Ready 2
Petitionville 2
Put It Back 2
Royal Academy 2
Saint Ballado 2
Silver Charm 2
Smokester 2
Yankee Gentleman 2

WEDNESDAY 08-22-2007

Unlike Monday, many of the top sires have runners today:

Race 1 - #2 Afleet’s Desire (Northern Afleet 7/2 ML)

Race 2 - #3 I Dig Her* (Old Topper 7/5 ML)
Race 2 - #2 No Means Maybe* (Old Topper 4/1 ML)
Race 2 - #5 Mighty Fine Wine* (Swiss Yodeler 6/1 ML)
Race 2 - #7 Warren’s Appeal (Bartok 12/1 ML)

Race 3 - #6 Nutzapper* (Unusual Heat 12/1 ML)

Note: race 3 is a turf race but Unusual Heat has done well on both surfaces.

Race 4 - #1 Key Maker (Saint Ballado 5/2 ML)
Race 4 - #3 Sixcess* (In Excess 7/2 ML)
Race 4 - #5 Celtic Dreamin (Game Plan 7/5 ML)
Race 4 - #7 Add Heat* (Unusual Heat 8/1 ML)

Race 5 - #1 Tribal Chief* (Tribal Rule 4/1 ML)
Race 5 - #2 Angus (Smokester 3/1 ML)
Race 5 - #3 Full Moon Rising* (Bertrando 30/1 ML)
Race 5 - #4 Two Toan Roan (Cee’s Tizzy 7/2 ML)
Race 5 - #7 Oakland Avenue* (High Brite 12/1 ML)
Race 5 - #8 Crimson Cowboy* (Swiss Yodeler 6/1 ML)
Race 5 - #9 Speedy Swiss* (Swiss Yodeler 4/1 ML)

Race 6 - #6 Tom West* (Slewledo 6/1 ML)
Race 6 - #11 Noble Tradition* (Stormy Atlantic 12/1 ML)
Race 6 - #12 High Eena* (High Brite 15/1)

Race 7 – Turf

Race 8 - #3 Games We Play (Game Plan 5/1 ML)
Race 8 - #5 Hi Lily Hi Lo* (Swiss Yodeler 4/1 ML)

* Superior Polytrack Sire

Look out for the Unusual Heat’s at high odds, especially if it is their second race over the track. Good luck.

The updated spreadsheet is at:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pIaalb5z28p9M9XtUdT52XA&hl=en_US

Posted by: Steve T on August 22, 2007 at 08:27 AM

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I see Authorized beat older horses in the Juddmonte International at York on Tuesday. Any chance he might show up in the Breeder's Cup Turf? (Could we see his PPs?)

Posted by: lonbags on August 22, 2007 at 08:53 AM

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Chicago Gerry- I tried a couple of handicapping contests for the first time last year-in the first, I didn't play a 30some dollar horse I had on top (just stupid) and didn't use my optional plays well, and in the fall contest, the horses I played just didn't run well. However, I encourage you to "give it a try". I did and I really enjoyed it (I'll be back at Arlington on 9/8) Noel Michael's handicapping book was a big help, but here are a couple of tips: First, do your homework before you go. (I'll start Wednesday when the first pp's come out) and secondly, you need to know what it's gonna take to win. (If you think you're chasing "top cappers" you're beat before you start.) At Arlington, a little over $300 total bankroll got you to vegas in September, if I remeber right,and about 350 got ya there at the trackside contest. so, set a number, and make sure you're getting enough value, especially on the optionals, to hit it. (and if you're at $350, you are probably gonna be able to pack your bags)

Posted by: Stephen L. Taylor on August 22, 2007 at 09:54 AM

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I'll try to be brief in my comments as, to be honest, I'm not nearly as articulate as many of you - but I'd like to make three points:

1. The horse racing business today is IMHO similar to boxing. With no "controlling authority" (boxing has how many organizations?), you have difficulty controlling the quality/consistency of the product. Artificial surfaces are the latest example - racetracks (KEE) "in bed" with the companies (polytrack) - vested interests similar to boxing managers "in bed" with certain boxing organizations. Watching DMR poly races suck - it's no fun as a horse racing fan. I'm embarrassed that 'our' best Gr1 race we can show the world is the Pacific Classic. You want to watch some real Gr1 horses run a Gr1 race?? Go to YouTube/Google video and watch Authorize beat Dylan Thomas and Notnowcato in the Juddmonte Intl when the video's available hopefully later today or tomorrow. But, just because I hate what the "rush to go synthetic" has done to racing as a fan/lover doesn't mean I can't continue to handicap and make money - in fact, for now I think I can do slightly better than the general horseplaying population. I'm using my good fortune at DMR this past week to bankroll my SAR bets, a track I love, particularly for this upcoming week/weekend's races.

2. Regarding, using DMR poly performance being an important factor in your DMR handicapping, since when as the adage "horse for course" gone stale? Don't listen to me/Steve, listen to Corey Nakatani (from DRF article): {Lava Man, according to jockey Corey Nakatani, “never was traveling up underneath me.” “Some like it, and some don’t,” he said of Polytrack.} Same for polypedigree - you use turf pedigree in your handicapping, don't you??? Why were Benchmark-sire horses 0/25 on DMR-poly when they were 11/61 on SA-cushion? BAD LUCK - BAD HORSES - BAD PEDIGREE - YOU CHOOSE!!!

3. Vicstu, just because one race doesn't go to form shouldn't change your handicapping choices and discipline. I said the other day you need to be right 1/3rd of the time to be really successful - I was wrong - IT'S OFTEN MUCH LOWER!! I went back last night to look at some of my old spreadsheets to help illustrate this point. When I won the Keeneland online contest last fall, I won on only 29/161 races in the contest (NOTE: you also got 'money' for place and the stakes races were weighted more for the contest, but I didn't go back and figure out # place horses, etc...) ONLY AN 18% WIN RATE AND I WON A HANDICAPPING CONTEST!! Please, when handicapping, accept any edge you can get/find - you don't have to be right that often to be successful!!!

OK, back to trying to pick an occasional winner...

Posted by: Alan on August 22, 2007 at 10:17 AM

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Gerry,
Please don't be intimidated at all with these contests - I won part of the ESPN Pick6 challenge contest in 2003 and it was the first contest I ever entered. Lately, it seems that my contest performance has been inversely proportional to the amount of time/effort I've spent on them!

Slew,
I loved reading your pedigree analysis for ELP2. I don't know how to deal with pedigree and ELP 8F races (~1.5-turn 'bizarro-route' races.) BTW, I have similar pedigree issues with BEL '1-turn route' races. Any of my limited ELP 8F handicapping success has been due to "trip handicapping". From that, I doubt Arian Rose's running style will benefit from the track/race, unless.....there is a "pace meltdown" between Tin Angel, Madamoiselle and Ld's Honey hopefully leaving Arian Rose to pick up the pieces!! DMan, I hope you win but please do me a favor - don't win too much money so the track then can't pay me off on my ELP Pick4 later in the card!

ELP 50CENT PICK4 (two tickets = $20 total):
(Sunday: -$36, Total so far +$732.70)
Race6: A-#1(SurpriseMeNot); B-#6(ApacheChief)
Race7: A-#1(ThisKid'sAStar), #5(WitAndWisdom); B-#2(RoyalHonor), #8(Askerrboy)
Race8: A-#1(ElRayoDeJalisco), #9(Jim'sSmokinPinot); B-#2(Denocando), #5(Scott'sCat)
Race9: A-#3(SpellMe); B-#6(Patrick), #7(BackUpKim)
TicketOne: A/AB/A/AB = #1/#1,#2,#5,#8/#1,#9/#3,#6,#7 = $12.
TicketTwo: AB/A/AB/A = #1,#6/#1,#5/#1,#2,#5,#9/#3 = $8.

Good luck today!! Steve, again thanks for all of your DMR work!!!

Posted by: Alan on August 22, 2007 at 12:00 PM

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Alright Slew,
Its an hour before post time and its time for the epic battle of extensive pedigree handicapping versus gutteral handicapping. Only one will survive.
Just for the record I really don't consider one mile routing. But your point is well taken about many late closing sprinters being mistaken as horses wanting to go longer (Imperialism rings a bell). Arian Rose's late rally at Churchill when she just missed in a 30K was really eye catching. She was way way out of it and unleashed a furious late kick to literally come from nowhere to get nosed. I also like the drop in class as she was running well with better at a bigger track (it was a 12 horse field I believe at Churchill). I do think she'll appreciate the stretch out but only time will tell.

Posted by: DManCPR on August 22, 2007 at 12:18 PM

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Does anyone know if either TVG or HRTV will be carrying the signal for the new Presuqe Isle? I would like to check out what all the fuss is about and see what trainers actually show up.

I agree that the realationship between the horseplayer and breeding industry in the 21st century needs to be more symbiotic. As I've mentioned before, I work in the horse-racing industry and it behooves me personally to have as many horses born, bought, and sold as possible. But that's my work-life; in real life I find it quite annoying that in the past 2 months or so Darley has aquired about 5 stallions prospects (3 in the US and 2 overseas) that probably have no furture future on the track beyond 06. The Sheiks always used to get props for being "sportsmen", but it seems the only UAE ruler these days who cares about engendering himself to the horseracing public is Sheik Hamdan with Invasor. Darley is a machine run by a CEO who as enough money that he can disregard the economics of supply and demand. I do find solice though in quotes from sellers at the recently concluded Fasig-Tipton sales, particularly Dr. Van Meter of Eaton who says that soon the breeding industry is going to have to "cut-back" because there are just too many horses and not enough demand for them. Hopefully the industry is going through a market correction that could refocus the emphasis on actually racing instead of just breeding for the sake of breeding.

Posted by: gucci or gambling on August 22, 2007 at 12:59 PM

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I wasn't aware that only 1 horse has broken down at DMR this year. However, in the race from last week, Yearly Attitude was vanned off after winning. I'll take your word about Lava Man being exhausted as well. Look at last week's charts from Arlington: about 4 breakdowns in 4-5 days. I've always said breakdowns are mostly the result of trainers giving pain-killers to their horses. It's possible that continuous Lasix usage has gradually weakened the breed genetically too.

Johnny Z said it best: you either avoid polytrack or you try to figure it out. Well, this is the best I can do: clearly, it's not dirt, but it's not like turf either. Perhaps it's similar to dirt races being transferred to forgiving, yet tiring, turf. I'll explain: the horses currently running on polytrack are/were typically dirt-oriented horses, especially in the sprint races. Most of them were not necessarily trained to bottle up their energy for the stretch run, particularly in SoCal. What happens when dirt front-runners are afraid of setting an honest pace? Throw in the variables of sore, slow horses catching a forgiving surface and sound, fast horses catching a tiring surface and you have chaos. Watch the San Diego. At the top of the stretch, virtually the entire field lined up across the track and sprinted home. It seemed like everyone was waiting around for Buzzard's Bay to quit. Being at the back of the pack, Sun Boat had plenty of energy in reserve and was able to kick clear the best of all. Based on that race, he was an underlay at 9/2 on Sunday, although he's not a bad closer. Maybe it was a flukey thing, but the turf-like riding of dirt-oriented horses results in every horse being in contention at the top of the stretch. This is where I share common ground with vicstu, James, and many others here: the race must be truly run to some degree if we are to have any chance of handicapping it reliably. That doesn't mean speed horses should go Helter-Skelter in :43 just for the sake of having their nose in front at every call... but when it becomes a quarter-horse race to the wire, any horse is eligible to win. Throw in the randomness of some horses hating or loving the stuff and you have races that are very difficult to handicap with any real confidence. There's no shame in admitting that. That's also why I don't think pedigree analysis is going to work in the long-run. Alan, you made some excellent points in your post. I think you're right about many of them. However, just as one should not be discouraged by losing a handful of races, don't be fooled by winning a handful either. I can appreciate you seeking an edge, and if you're confident in these sire stats, go for it! Personally, I don't see how pedigree could correlate with dirt-bred horses running in quicksand with Euro-style rides. At least not yet.

Here are 2 examples of somewhat truly-run races where randomness came into play. Bordonaro, who many considered the best sprinter last year, set the pace, but wasn't exactly pushed along in the O'Brien. It's fair to say it was a conservative ride, although he wasn't really choked. Nevertheless, he and Greg's Gold were about 5 lengths clear of the rest of the field turning for home. Greg's Gold was pretty keen for the lead himself, but was obviously restrained by Espinoza. Even though both had conservative rides, they were still several lengths clear at the eighth pole... on DIRT, quality sprinters in this scenario would likely finish 1-2. This time, Greg's Gold won convincingly, while Bordonaro faded to dead last, beaten several lengths. Greg's Gold clearly likes the surface, whereas Bordonaro clearly doesn't. The main point is that Bordonaro is a genuine Gr1 sprinter... conservative ride or not, when he's 5 lengths clear of the 3rd place horse with a furlong to go, you can understand him finishing 2nd, or even 3rd... but dead LAST, well-beaten? It doesn't make sense, especially when there wasn't much of a duel and Greg's Gold was ridden even more conservatively, yet won easily. Similar thing happened in the 9th. Relato Del Gato (a confirmed front-runner) and Bro Lo got clear of the rest of the field turning for home. Relato Del Gato, who stalked in a very close-up 2nd, won easily, while Bro Lo barely held 3rd. I would not have been surprised if the fates of Bro Lo and Relato Del Gato had been reversed. Same goes for Greg's Gold and Bordonaro. It seems arbitrary to me.

C

Posted by: C on August 22, 2007 at 01:40 PM

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