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FormBlog | September 04, 2007

Beyers, 'Cappers, horses from the past

Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes action:

Forego (Sar):  Midnight Lute (B. Baffert/S. Bridgmohan) - 124

Woodward (Sar):  Lawyer Ron (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 119

Icecapade (Mth):  Smokey Stover (G. Gilchrist/A. Gryder) - 110

Turf Monster (Pha):  Smart Enough (J. Fisher/J. Bravo) - 105
Pennsylvania Derby (Pha):  Timber Reserve (J. Kimmel/J. Castellano) - 105

Carterista (Crc):  Jet Propulsion (D. Hurtak/E. Nunez) - 103
Glens Falls (Sar):  Rosinka - Ire (H. Motion/J. Rose) - 101
Perfect Sting (Sar):  Criminologist (C. McGaughey III/E. Prado) - 100

Red Bank (Mth):  Icy Atlantic (T. Pletcher/J. Bravo) - 99
Adoration (Dmr):  Fun Logic (W. Currin/J. Talamo) - 98
Kent Breeders' Cup (Del):  Nobiz Like Shobiz (B. Tagg/J. Castellano) - 98
Harvest (Alb):  Sumfun (W. Calhoun/R. Chapa) - 98
Kenora (WO):  Lake Secret (V. Armata/T. Kabel) - 97
Tri-State (ElP):  Obi Wan Kenobi (F. Brother/B. Hernandez Jr.) - 97
Palomar (Dmr):  Precious Kitten (R. Frankel/J. Leparoux) - 97
Florida Stallion Affirmed (Crc):  Wise Answer (D. Brownlee/R. Fuentes) - 97
Mongo Queen (Mth):  Princess Janie (C. Gambolati/S. Elliott) - 96
Hopeful (Sar):  Majestic Warrior (W. Mott/G. Gomez) - 95
Saranac (Sar):  Mission Approved (G. Contessa/E. Coa) - 95
King Bold Reality (Med):  Remain Silent (M. Pino/R. Maragh) - 95

Cape Henlopen (Del):  Always First - GB (T. Voss/J. Caraballo) - 94
El Cajon (Dmr) (Second Division):  Latin Rhythms (R. Ellis/J. Valdivia Jr.) - 94
Matron Handicap (EvD):  Madison's Music (K. Bourgeois/K. LeBlanc) - 94
Elge Rasberry (LaD):  Tensas Yucatan (M. Nicks/D. Meche) - 94
Minneapolis (Cby):  Wayzata Bay (J. Hicklin/C. Montalvo) - 94
Torrey Pines (Dmr):  Seaside Affair (J. Sadler/R. Migliore) - 93
Governor's Buckeye Cup (Tdn):  Catlaunch (I. Vazquez/J. Skerrett) - 92
Weekend Madness (Sar):  Classic Neel (K. McLaughlin/E. Coa) - 92
Florida Stallion Susan's Girl (Crc):  Silk Ridge (G. Potter/M. Aguilar) - 92
Ontario Colleen (WO):  Speak Wisely (M. Frostad/T. Kabel) - 92
Summer Finale (Mnr):  Bavarian Belle (S. Davis/J. Stokes) - 91
Del Mar Derby (Dmr):  Medici Code (D. Vienna/M. Pedroza) - 91
Ruidoso Thoroughbred Championship (Rui):  Pistol Creek (O. Grissom/J. Espitia) - 91
Sapling (Mth):  Lantana Mob (S. Asmussen/S. Elliott) - 90
Aspirant (FL):  Law Enforcement (M. Hennig/A. Garcia) - 90
Halton (WO):  My Imperial Dancer (N. McKnight/G. Olguin) - 90

Rose DeBartolo Memorial (Tdn):  Pay the Man (M. Feliciano/A. Ramgeet) - 89
Vice Regent (WO):  Rahy's Attorney (I. Black/R. Landry) - 89
El Cajon (Dmr) (First Division):  Rush With Thunder (A. Avila/O. Berrio) - 89
Elgin (WO):  Stonetown (A. Katryan/E. Ramsammy) - 89
New York Oaks (FL):  Talking Treasure (C. Baker/R. Messina) - 89
Ruidoso Thoroughbred Derby (Rui):  Western Prize (S. Asmussen/A. Juarez Jr.) - 89
Charlie Iles Express (Alb):  Whirl (G. Green/A. Jimenez) - 89
Ready Jet Go (Med):  Generosity (B. Levine/R. Maragh) - 88
Betty's Hat (Pen):  Royal Pleasure (J. Sheppard/J. Pimentel) - 88
Twin Lights (Mth):  Bachata (H. Motion/E. Castro) - 87
Labor Day (Mnr):  Muqbil (D. Knipe/D. Parker) - 86
Irish Actress (Sar):  Jesse's Justice (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 86
R. J. Speers (AsD):  Car Keys (G. Danelson/R. Cumberbatch) - 85
Go For Wand (Del):  Lemon Drop Mom (T. Ritchey/J. Caraballo) - 85
Richmond Derby Trial (Hst):  Sir Gallovic (T. Taylor/M. Gutierrez) - 85

Shakopee (Cby):  Glitter Star (R. Scherer/S. Martinez) - 84
Spinaway (Sar):  Irish Smoke (P. Biancone/J. Leparoux) - 84
Kenny Schoeph (Cby):  Mack's Monarch (J. Ness/P. Nolan) - 84
With Anticipation (Sar):  Nownownow (P. Biancone/J. Leparoux) - 84
Chamisa (Alb):  Tempting Date (C. Hartman/K. Tohill) - 84
Arlington-Washington Futurity (AP):  Wicked Style (G. Arnold II/ R. Albarado) - 84
Inaugural (PID):  Miss A. Bomb (G. Hofmans/M. Mena) - 83
Alma North (Tim):  Somethinboutbetty (T. Pletcher/J. Joyce) - 83
Ravolia (Crc):  Sweet Exchange (F. Warren/J. Lopez) - 83
MTA Stallion Auction Lassie (Cby):  Thanks for the Tip (M. Robertson/D. Butler) - 83
Sunset Gun (Suf):  Ask Queenie (L. Lockhart/D. Panell) - 81
Labor Day (Cls):  First Class Brass (K. Martinez/A. Martinez) - 80
Generous Portion (Dmr):  Golden Doc A (B. Abrams/V. Espinoza) - 80

Bill Callihan (Cls):  C. R. Charmer (R. Westermann/D. Leeds) - 79
Catcharisingstar (Crc):  Excessive Heat (L. Rivelli/E. Trujillo) - 79
Coca-Cola Bassinet (RD):  Kadira (D. Vance/L. Melancon) - 79
Lafayette (EvD):  Mikimoto's Mojo (P. Mouton/E. Perrodin)  - 79
Miller Lite Cradle (RD):  Old Man Buck (K. McPeek/P. Ouzts) - 79
Fasig-Tipton Turf Dash (Crc):  Ultimate Authority (A. Salinas/J. Leyva) - 79
Simcoe (WO):  Don's Folly (M. DePaulo/S. Callaghan) - 78
MTA Stallion Auction Laddie (Cby):  Ghazi Up (G. Paulson/P. Nolan) - 77
Puss N Boots Cup (FE):  Silver Strip (B. Ross/D. Piques) - 77
Lady Finger (FL):  By the Light (R. Dutrow Jr./J. Grabowski) - 76
Eternal Search (WO):  You Will Love Me (R. Barnett/E. Da Silva) - 76
Sorority (Mth):  A Little Gem (S. Margolis/J. Lezcano) - 75
Labatt Cup (FE):  Ladyinblue (J. Simms/R. King Jr.) - 75

Barbara Shinpoch (EmD):  Smarty Deb (D. Harwood/R. Frazier) - 74
A. L (Red) Erwin (EvD):  Wildrally (T. Amoss/J. Jacinto) - 74
Seacliff (Crc):  Honey Honey Honey (S. Gold/J. Leyva) - 73
Jack Hardy (AsD):  Spillway (M. Drexler/A. Cuthbertson) - 73
Muskoka (WO):  Simple Sister (A. Schembri/E. Ramsammy) - 72
Hong Kong Jockey Club (Hst):  Alpine Garden (T. Jordan/Q. Welch) - 71
Algoma (WO):  Arden Belle (R. Sadler/M. Moore) - 71
Lindsay Frolic (Crc):  Asi Asi (H. Collazo/J. Garcia) - 71

Farer Belle Lee (GLD):  Silent Sunset (J. Lewis/T. Loveberry) - 67

Freedom of the City (NP):  Littlemissallison (G. Tracy/R. Walcott) - 62
Yavapai Downs Futurity (Yav):  Rule by Force (L. Rollins/V. Guerra) - 62
Washington Thoroughbred  Breeders' Association Lads (EmD):  Gallon (J. Penney/L. Mawing) - 61

Lakeland Heritage (MD):  Royal Rust (S. Schmidt/H. Rabbitskin) - 59
Little Ones (GLD):  Hot Chili (L. Jackson/J. Loveberry) - 56
Horizon Heritage (MD):  Allourwishes (K. Gardipy/A. Scarlett) - 55

CTHS Sales (AsD) (Colt Division):  Eight by Ten (L. Pruitt/J. Pruitt) - 50
Prairie Meats (MD):  Dancin' Sami (R. Gardipy/A. Scarlett) - 49
CTHS Sales (AsD) (Filly Division):  Bella Mariella (M. Drexler/P. Leacock) - 47

North Dakota Futurity (AsD):  Givem Hell Harley (D. Leingang/R. Singh) - 36

Prairie Lily Sales (MD):  Y. C. Rail (H. Pilon/T. Moccasin) - 33


Several of the Monday stakes Beyers were unavailable.  I'll post those tomorrow.

Here are the lifetime past performances for "Big Beyer" Midnight Lute:

Download MidnightLute.PDF

Handicapper(s) of the Week:

I'll look for value in exotics with two closers - #8 Midnight Lute (ML:6/1) was compromised by a bad start and a slow pace in the Cmwlthbc at KEE in Apr - his last race.  Midnight Lute has fired bullets this month on both coasts (DMR and SAR) prepping for Baffert - who is hot at the Spa with his 2yo babes.  It would not surprise me if Midnight Lute stole this race.  #3 Awesome Twist (ML:8/1) was a closing 2nd to High Finance in the Tom Fool - his last place effort in the 9F Whitney reinforced his distance limitations - back to 7F today (WP #8; EXBX #8,#10; EX #8/#3; Multirace tickets: A-#10; B-#8)
ELP "4% TAKEOUT IS THE BEST DEAL IN RACING" 50CENT PICK4 ($36 ticket)
(Yesterday -$24, Total so far: +$530.70)
Race8: #1(Starlicious); #3(Chinchilla); #4(ExcitingJustice)
Race9: #2(WwConquistador); #6(OneStackMac)
Race10: #3(CatShaker); #4(MBSea); #7(ObiWanKenobi)
Race11: #1(AwkwardMoment); #2(SoGifted); #6(ClassicRobbery); #11(Mr.Coach)
Good luck today!!
ELP 50CENT "PENULTIMATE" PICK4 ($36 ticket)
(Yesterday net +$388.95, Total so far: +$919.65)
Race8: #2(Grumman); #5(Foxboat); #8(MoreBourb)
Race9: #1(Shakey); #4(MoeBDick); #6(JohniesStorm)
Race10: #1(MaryCat); #6(Callie'sJoy); #9(Tressel); #10(PineShelter)
Race11: #1(Metzger); #8(Dictina'sBoy)
Good luck today!!
Alan

Alan took down the Pick Four once again at Ellis on Saturday, and if that wasn't enough, he crushed the Pick Four on Sunday.  Let's review his winners.  Exciting Justice kicked things off with a $19.80 mutuel.  Ww Conquistador paid $6.80.  Obi Wan Kenobi used the force to win the feature at $5.40, and Awkward Moment took the finale at $11.80.  The Pick Four returned $424.95 on Saturday.  On Sunday, More Bourb paid a whopping $45.40 in the first leg.  Johnies Storm paid $7.20.  Mary Cat paid $12.40, and Dictina's Boy paid $5.60.  The Pick 4 paid, wait for it, $1,062.80!  Wow-za!
Midnight Lute blew 'em away in the Forego at $7.20 to win, and Alan also sniffed out 54-1 shot Yonagucci, who completed the trifecta in the Spinaway.  To continue his amazing run, Mythical Hunter paid $11.80 to place at Ellis on Monday, and Majestic Warrior upset the Hopeful.  Fantastic job, and thanks for sharing with the rest of the group. 

***

...Now, on to the Arlington-Washington Futurity (street sense was 3rd in this race last year, so there was some talent) what a TREMENDOUS betting race! My pick is WICKED STYLE-broke his maiden at 6 1/2 (at Arlington) so we know he likes the surface, and as an "added bonus" he gets Lasix for the first time (which very well could mean that his win last time came despite bleeding)...
Stephen Taylor

Wicked Style showed a lot of heart in the stretch to turn back the prolonged challenge of Riley Tucker.  He paid $18 to win.  Hope you cashed.

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Spinaway Grade I
I think this is Irish Smoke race to lose, much more with all the speed to join More Happy on the first flight. I will complete the exacta with A to the Croft, troubled trip in the Adirondack, Desormeaux stays aboard and with a better post today. Will play the 6-3 cold exacata at 10-1 or better.
Ivan

Ivan turned a heavy favorite into a solid 10-1 shot as the Irish Smoke - A to the Croft exacta paid $21.00.

***

I like Smart Enough in the  Turf Monster, Bravo should get a good trip sitting off a pace duel of Gaff vs. Unbridled Sidney.
James Mc.

Smart Enough ran very fast in the Turf Monster, and paid a very reasonable $9.80 to win.

***

It also should be noted that Steve T hit several exactas (and boxes) at Saratoga and Arlington on Saturday, and gucci or gambling was right-on with Sam's Passion, and Midnight Lute.  Also, svhill and vicstu advised that Sun King was a live longshot in the Whitney, chicago gerry got Nobiz Like Shobiz home in the Kent, and Calvin Carter mentioned Timber Reserve in the Pennsylvania Derby. 

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Let's take a trip down memory lane with a couple of three-year-olds from the past that received their props from this forum in recent days:

Download nice_3s.PDF


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Anybody else notice the lack of works on AGS in the last month? Are they planning on training up to the BC? Kind of odd that he works on a weekly basis and then no works for a month.
Steve T

Any Given Saturday worked five furlongs in 1:01.94 over the Saratoga main track on September 1.  He will likely start next in the Brooklyn Handicap on September 22 at Belmont.

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...Alan,
your comment about 3 yr olds
becoming "adults" as a 4 yr old was a good one // I was trying to look up the PP's of Black Tie Affair but couldn't find it even though I know it's there somewhere // In any event he got good as a 4 or 5 yr in early summer of his BC victory, winning everything and everywhere including small stakes and just stayed good trough the BC Classic//...
chicago gerry

Here are the lifetime past performance for Black Tie Affair:

Download black_tie_affair.PDF

Some interesting tidbits.  Black Tie Affair won three of his first four races at two, then seemed to go into a little funk.  Did you know that BTA was 72-1 in the 1989 Breeders' Cup Sprint?  How about his 132-1 odds (understandable considering it was Criminal Type vs. Easy Goer vs. Housebuster) in the 1990 Met Mile? How about his third-place finish in the 1990 BC Sprint (the famous Dayjur shadow-jump race) at 53-1?  He really got good at five, and absolutely killed me in the Breeders' Cup Classic (I loved Twilight Agenda). 

***

Hey Dan:
I recognize that I have to be cognizant of those "Bute off" Cali horses, but I think it's also time to be aware of
the "Belmont off" phenomenon
with High Finance's total collapse today, as well as Papichullo's big figs at Belmont that suddenly evaporated when he was shipped to Monmouth and Toga, and summarily crushed, we can call it the "Silver Train Phenomenon". Racing against very short fields and earning gaudy numbers in "stakes"
at Belmont seems to garner the respect of the DRF cappers, but they are all highly sceptical if some horse ships in from Cali with similar Beyers against similar fields.
Well, at least for once, Midnight Lute eviscerated his East Coast rivals. Though I don't expect the average DRF capper to remember that the next time a Cali shipper faces some horse who has been earning gaudy figs against 3.5 horses at Belmont.
Peace out.
James Mc.

You make an excellent point about the short field angle with horses like High Finance, although I wonder if he's merely a one-dimensional speed horse that wouldn't pass a parked car.  It's an interesting non-angle, the big Beyer against short fields. 
And you're right.  We probably won't remember it.  So keep cashing in (smile)!

***

...Thanks for the insights noted in your book. I was wondering if there have been any major revisions or additions since the book was written?
Calvin Carter

Not yet, although I am planning to post updated rankings, additions, and subtractions on DRF Plus before the end of the year.  Thanks for the kind words, and I hope you enjoy the book.

***

Oh, and Slew, congrats on your recent purchase.  A very nice story.  Thanks for sharing.

Have a good one,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman on September 4, 2007 | Permalink

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Comments

Slew,

Congratulations on your purchase, have fun with it! Thanks for sharing your story!

Posted by: Dave Rarey on September 04, 2007 at 04:01 PM

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Dan,

Thanks for the props, but it was a great handicapping weekend for many here, with lots of good scores (for example Lenny took down two W2G Pick4s)...and don't forget about yourself - "Handicapper of the Labor Day"!!

FWIW, attached in a sire-rating sheet for the DMR-poly races tomorrow - may help some with handicapping the later poly races in the Pick6. A sire receives a rating only after 10 poly races (otherwise, 'X' if < 10 races) and I use the TSN defn to assign a 'Grade'. I highlighted those horses sired by DMR-poly 'A' sires. For the maiden poly races, I included the 'raw' sire stats for maiden starters on the DMR-poly:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL47NK-rJ0ViMw

Good luck handicapping the DMR card - BTW, Lenny, considering your recent great luck, can I look over your shoulder??

Posted by: Alan on September 04, 2007 at 04:25 PM

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It's been hours since my last harebrained scheme, so here's my latest hypothesis:

That the horses training and running on Del Mar's poly track are actually muscling up and will be a huge factor when going back to dirt or synthetic. Kind of like training by running in the sand.

The latest was Midnight Lute who had been training on the Del Mar poly and then blew a 124 at Saratoga. There have been a few shippers from Del Mar and all have done very well.

Could be worth watching, especially for Breeder's Cup at Monmouth.

Please feel free to throw rocks and tell me I'm deranged.

Posted by: Steve T on September 04, 2007 at 04:55 PM

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Dan, I too liked Twilight Agenda at 11-1 or so in the '91 BC Classic. Were you as confident as I was when he drew up alongside Black Tie Affair at the top of the stretch with hardly any encouragement from Chris McCarron?
I remember Twilight Agenda ran back in the '92 Classic off one turf prep, but he didn't run a jump at 9-1.
I think that was his last race and he was a dud as a sire. Did he ever produce any decent runners?

Posted by: terry flanagan on September 04, 2007 at 05:00 PM

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With the shift of racing venues in NJ/NY this week, I need some insight, gents!

My birthday celebration this weekend involves a) champagne at Jones Beach and b) a visit to some track! Looks like it's gonna be the Meadowlands on Friday night, but getting there early enough to catch some late Belmont action. Both have opening days that day.

What do I need to know about NJ racing? I went to Monmouth last year, but they shut up shop way early this year, probably to prepare for BC?
Good jocks, or just bet Dela. shippers? I'll take any Belmont bombs you care to toss my way!

Katieattherail

Posted by: Katieattherail on September 04, 2007 at 05:15 PM

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I'm confused how Midnight Lute gets a 124 Beyer, given all the rationalization about Lawyer Ron's Whitney Beyer. It doesn't seem that the same standards were applied in both cases.

Posted by: Lawyer Ron Fan on September 04, 2007 at 05:24 PM

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Steve,

I heard a similar theory on TVG today when an emailer wrote that in his opinion the poly toughened up the horses and he used the example of #2 Senior in the 10th at Del Mar on Wednesday.

I don't have the past performances so I don't know how Senior has performed but the emailer said Senior ran on the poly earlier in the meet and was switching over to turf.

According to the emailer he had been following horses at Del Mar and he discovered horses improved when switching from poly to the turf. The emailer said this angle worked well for him when handicapping Del Mar races.

At 15-1 in the morning the the emailer thought that Senior would be a good play switching over to the turf and could round out the pick six.

For what it's worth, I hope this helps. Sounds like you may be on to something and your hypothesis may not be that farfetched after all.

Alan,

I'm glad that you scored on Big Brown. Turfway opens tomorrow and it looks like there are some 1st timers from Dan's list running.

Posted by: Calvin Carter on September 04, 2007 at 05:47 PM

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Can someone please provide the raw time for Hard Spun's Bishop race? I'd like to compare the fractions to the Mid. Lute fractions. Thanks a bunch.

-Slew

Posted by: SlewofDamascus on September 04, 2007 at 06:05 PM

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Wow,

You guys are on fire here. I haven't been posting much, because I haven't had much to post about.....

Xchanger not getting up really killed me yesterday.....it hurt even worse when somehow my under exacta was not processed at Brisbet. Ugh....I have really been having problems with them lately.

Anyone Interested in the new track....Presque Isle Downs?

I got off to a nice start there with the opening double for around 250...

Seems to me (just an early observation) that closers are doing well going 2 turns, and speed can win in sprints. With horses shipping in from everywhere, there are prices to be had, and there has been some decent money wagered there early. I plan on taking a trip up there for this first meet. (About 3 hours from my house).

I am curious if you guys that are monitoring the synthetic surfaces are keeping an eye on the Tapeta surface and the developments of the racing up there.

Keep up the great work. I am a big Pick 4 player and you guys are really hammering them right now. I wish I could say the same.....it only takes one...

priz

Posted by: prizboy on September 04, 2007 at 07:05 PM

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Katie- Monmouth did shut early this year to prep for BC. I looked at Friday's Med card and it is ordinary. Main jocks are same as Mth- Bravo, Castro, DeCarlo, Lezcano, CC Lopez. Carol Cedeno looks like she's pulling double duty and she was getting some winners at Mth, and Rajiv Maragh had a good Mth meet. I did see that Alan Garcia has some mounts for Friday.

The only thing I can succintly give you is that the rail at Mth was dead on weekends of Aug 11 and 18- give extra credit to horses that ran well while inside and discount performances of those outside.

Posted by: AlHattab on September 04, 2007 at 07:08 PM

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Hi Dan,
I just read that Jazil was retired and I'm curious what you make of his chances at stud. Its tough to tell with him if he was actually a good 3 yo who just never recovered from his cannon bone injury or just the only horse who wanted 1 1/2 in the Belmont. But despite being, at least to me, a bit of a dud of a classic winner he's got all sorts of pedigree power being a half to Rags to Riches (I now say Jazil is a half to RTR rather than other way around). Please let me know your thoughts (Dan and the rest of the crew).

Posted by: DManCPR on September 04, 2007 at 07:49 PM

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I believe Stephen Taylor and I are going into battle proudly carrying the Dan Illman Formblog Banner and Colors at the handicapping contest Arlington Park on Saturday.
If you don't feel the need to protect your longshots for AP, Bel, Calder, and TP, this weekend, I would appreciate any thoughts you may have on any medium and high priced longshots at those tracks // I will develop my own list//

Far back in tiny creeks and rivers, comes rushing to the main when day light comes, comes the light, but Westward look the land is bright.. we shall fight them on land and on sea and in the air and we shall never give in.

No, this is not groveling and yes, that would be me on the floor with both arms around your pant leg // thanks, chicago gerry

Posted by: chicago gerry on September 04, 2007 at 08:49 PM

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Priz,

I mentioned Presque Isle yesterday morning and you are right about the bias - updated Klein Track Bias for the 3 cards so far (two races excluded due to low-odd favs winning):
1-turn: 4-1-6-3 = KTB 143
2-turn: 1-0-2-5 = KTB 63
But that one front running win at 2-turns was Skyey at 45.70/1 odds in Monday's 6th race!

Slew,

From Simulcast Daily Stakes Review

FOREGO S.(G1)
1 - MIDNIGHT LUTE BEYER: 125 (BTW, Winners' Book Beyer was 124!)
2 - Benny the Bull BEYER: 120
3 - Attila's Storm BEYER: 99
4 - How's Your Halo 98
5 - Awesome Twist 93
6 - Simon Pure 88
7 - Executive Search 86
8 - High Finance 86
9 - Praying for Cash 84
10 - Like Now 57
FRACTIONS: 22.86 45.24 1:08.95 1:21.06

KING'S BISHOP S.(G1)
1 - HARD SPUN BEYER: 106 (Winners' Book Beyer was 107!)
2 - First Defence BEYER: 103
3 - E Z Warrior BEYER: 93
4 - Teuflesberg 92
5 - Most Distinguished 87
6 - Bold Start 81
7 - King of the Roxy 80
8 - Longley 80
9 - Pauillac 58
10 - Forty Grams 41
11 - Spin Master 24
FRACTIONS: 21.94 44.20 1:08.71 1:22.34

Steve,

As usual, you are on to something (you may also still be deranged - it isn't mutually exclusive...) I remember some trainers preferring horses working on the SAR Oklahoma track because it was slower/more tiring (similar to increasing tension on your exercise bicycle.)

Katie,

If you have a choice, go to Belmont on Saturday. There is a NY state stakes on Friday, but on Saturday, you have three Grade 1's - The Man o'War, The Garden City BC and The Ruffian (+/- RtR, very likely minus...)

Posted by: Alan on September 04, 2007 at 08:54 PM

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124 Beyer for Midnight Lute--now that's a "Ghostzapper" Beyer.

Lawyer Ron's ability to relax/rate has made him into a serious older horse and already has taken to Momonth--
Should layoff Hard Spun very nicely in the Classic and kick home. One less race to handicap on BC day ??

Although I'm not a big fan of the new BC races on Friday-potentially reducing the fields for Saturday's races and corressponding odds, it may help in getting a feel for the track the following day since this is a historical summer facility operating in early fall. No rain please.

Posted by: Andrew Carpenter on September 04, 2007 at 09:27 PM

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DEL MAR PICK SIX EXTRAVAGANZA

Here are my DM picks for tomorrow:

Race 1: Exclamation, Stylin Cat, Ocean Grand (LS - Oliver Twisted)

Race 2: Big Hit, Richer Gear, First Opportunity (LS - Gentlemenprfrblnds)

Race 3: Relato del Gato, Fly Dorcego, Declan's Moon (LS - Double Action)

Race 4: There He Goes, Dart River, Midniter (LS - Wicked Samurai)

Race 5: Switzerland, Denied, Ghost Actor (LS - Westerly Magic)

Race 6: Count Brahms, Kalookan Event, Midnight Express/Heat of the Year (LS - Hy Temp)

Race 7: Ex Caelis, Selvativa, Jump On In (LS - Sophie's Trophy)

Race 8: Hunsley Bunsley, Placid Lake, Golden Venture (LS - Justice is Brief)

Race 9: Drill Down, Salute the Sarge, Kanan Dume (LS - Ford Island)

Race 10: Patch of Blue, Chancellor, Papanonie (LS - Senior)

One of US needs to take this sucker down.

If you want the full analysis of all the races they are posted at:

http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=ddwzqz6g_0gkgc9w

Posted by: Steve T on September 04, 2007 at 10:22 PM

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Took a short vacation, is good to be home, and reading everybody's thoughts and insights.

Steve T.
Don't think your angle on Poly-Track training is harebrained, or deranged at all. Many trainers have praised the safety factor with the synthetics for sometime. I have felt many trainers were training on the Poly for the very reason you mentioned. You will never hear one state that, as they don't want to give up any advantage they might possibly have. After all trainers are just like all of us; looking for any advantage however slight of a % that might be.

Alan, congrats on a great week-end, not to mention the double @ ELP. Next time your are in D.C. why not lobby for another P-4 with a 4% takeout.
Thanks for the Poly Track Sire posting @ DLM tomorrow.

Not much chatter on the P-6 @ DLM tomorrow. Don't understand that, and I know they are hard to hit, and you have to compete against the big-boys. Just feel I need to make a big effort, besides the astrononical size of the pot, it is the last day of the meet, so those millions will be paid to somebody in some form. Will post a pick(s) later, or tomorrow.

I also have to mention Lawyer Ron. I had a gut feeling he was in that kind of form, just wasn't smart enough to play the hunch. Have watched his win Sat. 4-5 times, what a performance; that was no field of cup-cakes he absolutly destroyed. Having his win in last year's Rebel Stks., and Ark. Derby recorded I re-watched those. In my opion his stride now is really smooth, and has also lengthened his stride.

I have been thinking for sometime that the B.C. Classic @ Monmouth would be won by a 3 yr old. May have to re-evaluate, and that comes not from what has just happened, but from the simple fact that LR is really an improved 4 yr old.

Put some work in on the DLM P-6, would love to see some opinions, and would even be happpier if one or more of the regulars on this site hit tomorrow.

Posted by: johnny z on September 04, 2007 at 10:56 PM

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Pick 6 Tickets:

1-4-11
5-8
1-10
4-8
1-4-6
3-7

5-11
1-9
1-2-9
6-12
5-6-7
7-8-10

Total Bets: $360

Posted by: Steve T on September 04, 2007 at 11:42 PM

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What do you guys think of Theverythoughtof U in the 7th race?? She had a troubled trip last time. I love her breeding as her dam is Stormy But Valid, a G1 winner.

Posted by: RJ on September 04, 2007 at 11:51 PM

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What kind of Stride Length does Majestic Warrior have? He was just eating up track once he hit the stretch. He also looked much bigger than the others. Reminds me of Rock Hard Ten.

Posted by: John, Peoria IL on September 05, 2007 at 12:57 AM

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Steve T.,

Your "hunch" is much more than that...some trainers swear by it...although it is not limited to the polytrack at DMR...

Case in point- 3 of the top 5
finishers in this year's Kentucky Derby ran their last prep race on Polytrack (Street Sense- Keeneland; Hard Spun- Turfway; Sedgefield- Turfway...in addition, all 3 trained at Keeneland on the polytrack up until the week of the Derby, and when each ran over the Churchill track, each trainer stated that they were "gliding" over the surface...Who can forget the flawless workouts of Street Sense Derby week, or Hard Spun's 57.6 bullet for 5 furlongs the Monday before the Derby (fastest breeze for 5 f in 25 yrs.). HS's work even made the mainstream press because it was so unusually fast...and many said HS would be spitting the bit at the top of the stretch...that the workout was too fast. History would note they were flat out wrong, as HS ran all the other speed off of their feet and finished a gallant 2nd by 2 lengths to SS...And, yes C, I still think the red sea parted for SS along that rail, otherwise HS is the Derby champ...

Now, the experts said after that sizzling 5 furlong breeze by HS, that if he ran well in the Derby after leaving that much on the track Monday AM, than he was a freak...Well, was he a freak or the beneficiary of a shrewd training method, or both?

And Steve, it is no coincidence that HS is pointing to the Kentucky Cup at Turfway on Polytrack as his last prep before the BC Classic (or the Dirt Mile)...Jones swears it builds stamina and he loves the turn of foot from synthetic to dirt.
Recall that HS won the Lane's End relatively easily as his last Derby prep...could Jones (and you) be crazy for thinking this about polytrack, or are you both crazy like a fox and on to something?(of course, as Alan pointed out, you could be both)...

Sources close to the SS camp are saying that Natzfer had wanted to originally wanted to run SS on Polytrack 9f for his final prep...considering he did not win or run very well in the Bluegrass, why would Carl want to prep his horse on a surface SS does not seem to relish? Turn of foot? Stamina? Now that HS has orally committed to the Kentucky Cup, I would think Carl would be weary against running SS against HS on Polytrack, considering how well HS runs on that surface. I consider SS more than capable of beating or running with HS on dirt, given the right scenario--and especially at CD. But on Poly I think HS would dust SS at 9f... So, watch for Carl to settle on another race but to train SS on poly at some time before the BC Classic. But knowing Carl, he may well chance the race just to run SS on that surface if he thought it set his colt up right for the Classic...

Anyhow, I for one am watching the Futurity at DelMar with great interest...I predict at least 1 or 2 of those 2 y.o. horses, be it Salute the Sarge, Leonides, Georgie Boy, Drill Down, or some other runner, will make their presence felt at the BC Juvenile...

I think you are on to something, Steve, and obviously some trainers are already sold on this idea...

Happy birthday, Katie, I probably know about as much as you do on Belmont, but I am sure a few here will steer you in the right place.

Johnny Z, I have been a Lawyer Ron fan since the Rebel last year...he has come a long way, and he is head and shoulders above the handicap division. He has had two easy wins, though...while colts like SS, Hard Spun, and Curlin have been in some real battles and have shown heart and courage...I hope Ron can get 10f, cause I KNOW the 3 above can get it (and AGS has run so well I would be shocked if he did not)...Throw in Sun King with the 4- 3 year olds that I named above (and I love SK)...anyone here think SK could finish 2nd in that race...? To me that sums up the handicap division OTR (Other Than Ron). I thank the breeding industry...

And, BTW, congrats to everyone who did well over this past weekend...Any predictions on the DMR Futurity or the pick 6?

Posted by: vicstu on September 05, 2007 at 02:20 AM

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Hey Lawyer Ron Fan,

Welcome to the upside down, through the looking glass, Alice-in-Wonderland, bizarro world of Beyer and the BSF...
Just a few days back we were lamenting, errr discussing this phenomena...

There are those such as Dan and Andy Beyer himself that will tell you that the BSF is based on the final race time measured against certain variables...the track, similar races that day and a strange formula that attempts to quantify the final time against the ideal time/pace...and they are right. In theory.

The practical application of the BSF has been unpredictable and bizarre...For instance, if the final time is the constant variable that is being quantified, why did Ron get a 116 for setting the track record at the Spa at 1:46 and change? Yet, this past weekend Ron wins easily again, this time with faster fractions up to 6 furlongs, and a final time of 1:48 and change...and gets a 119. If the BSF was truly based on final time, instead of say, pace...there is no amount of tinkering that would place the Woodward over the Whitney BSF.

Yet Midnight Lute runs a great 7 furlongs, off of honest fractions, but does not break the track record for 7 furlongs, and somehow gets a 124...? There is NO way ML should get a higher BSF than LR's Whitney...The initial BSF of 126 was correct...what in the world was Beyer and his boys doing? Sports writers like Tony Kornheiser have stated that Beyer frequently injects his own bias into his picks and his BSF nos.He lost what little credibility with his BSFs based on that little stunt...while TK is right.

Dan, even in the most Bizarro of worlds, there is no way to explain or to quantify HOW Ron's Whitney is so much lower than ML's 124...I don't know how Ron's Woodward, run almost 2 seconds slower than his Whitney time, rates 3 BSF points higher than his BSF for the track record at the same distance...usually these are the only 9 panel races on the card, so what in the world is being used to justify such unreasoned tinkering in this most UN-uniform system that I have ever seen...? And if the BSF is final time, don't talk about pace,fractions, or anything other than the final time as the constant in this formula...

I think SunG was right in his earlier post...the BSF is about MUCH more than just the final times of a race, because if it was only final time, the BSFs would have a pattern of predictability to them and a margin of error that is acceptable in a statistical manner of speaking...They don't!

Instead, the BSF is becoming more and more bizarre, and is subjective and is not based solely on the final time. Why? Math 101:
A. 9f in 1:46... fast
B. 9f in 1:48... much slower, maybe 10-13 lengths slower...If the BSF is based on the final time of the race, why would B receive a BSF of 119 and A receive 116?
I challenge anyone at this blog to explain this in a way that makes this seem like anything other than the boys at BSF playing race god.

Posted by: svhill on September 05, 2007 at 03:21 AM

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Katie,
The Meadowlands is my home track so I hope I can give you a little advice. When it doesnt rain both the dirt and turf tracks are like super speed ways. Monday was a perfect example. They were flying on the front end in every race. There is a big difference though from Monmouth. Monmouth is usually a speed favoring track whereas the Big M usually plays very fair. obviously you will get days when there is a bias but most days you will find that you will get a nice mix like Monday of speed, stalkers and closers. Monmouth horses have a tough time at the Meadowlands because they have been running so hard all summer and now they have to run even faster. Ny shipppers have a lot of success at the Meadowlands, especially the ones that didnt do well at Monmouth. Also the jockey standings are usually much closer than at Monmouth. Look for Jockeys like Elliot and Maragh to be closer to Bravo and watch out for Nevin Mangalee who had 2 winners Monday (7-1 8-1). Mangalee is definitely a sleeper this year at The Meadowlands. Hope this helped you and whoever is going to play the Meadowlands a little. By the way there is a contest on Sept 29th that will feature the Meadowlands, race 4 and on from Santa Anita, and Mountainer. Only 150 entries for this contest I believe. Hope to see you guys there. I am the big red head with a gotee and probably some kind of Adidas hat on. Come say hi if you see me. I would love to talk to any of you in person.

Posted by: scianc22 on September 05, 2007 at 03:46 AM

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RJ,

She is one of the entrants in the "Pick 6 Death Race", the leg where almost everybody could win. The race has legitimate favorites and live longshots. Here are my handicapping notes on Theverythougof U:

#8 Theverythoughtof U (5/1) – one average work at DM, previous race was 3rd in Grade 2 with BSF of 95. She is 1/1 at the distance. Talamo up. Ellis is having a tough meet. She is 6/6 lifetime in the money. Can’t discount.

I went with Ex Caelis because of her transfer to Mandella and then throwing a 95 in her first race at DM. It is really hard to have confidence in horses that have never run at DM, you just don't know what they will do. That being said she is legitimate and could run well.

Posted by: Steve T on September 05, 2007 at 09:09 AM

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Is it me or Majestic Warrior just sat back while the others dueled and inherited the race? He was not very impressive to me, but I may be wrong

Posted by: tony f on September 05, 2007 at 09:46 AM

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C.Gerry-glad you decided to get in the contest, you should enjoy it win or lose. (I didn't pick a winner the second contest I was in, but I'm back for more!) Calder PPs are already up (no ml odds so all I've done so far is toss the horses I don't like-doesn't look like I'll be using many (if any) Calder races. Now for my question to Dan, and/or any other contest players-Dreaming of Anna is in one of the graded stakes (and according to a release they sent out, this will be a mandatory race) and I'm guessing will be 3/5 and deserve it-so what do you do? (especially if the race is early) The three choices I can think of are:
1.) Use her and just take the small return, hoping that most people took a shot at a price-you picked up about $16 on most of the other players
2.)Take a flyer on someone else since DOA isn't offering value or
3) Since the contest is the player's choice of $10w or $10place, try to find a nice price place horse. Of course if the race is late in the day, the standings will tell us what to do-but if it's early, I'd appreciate any tourney player's opinions

Posted by: Stephen Taylor on September 05, 2007 at 10:44 AM

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Steve,
that's $720 (multiply by $2).

Alan,
You're going good right now, so I wouldn't worry about a handicapping internship. You can already teach the pedigree course and the advanced polytrack edition too with Steve :) Besides, I've been enrolled in one for my entire life now... the one with all the paperwork is my father. The other is a friend of mine (I'll protect his identity) who had a brief 15 minutes of fame for being 1 of the 3 people who took down that $7 million P6 at SA a few years ago. Trust me, it was no fluke, the guy's unreal. He bats (conservatively) between .600 and .650 on win bets. I only mentioned them to sort of refute Slew's claim that nobody is killing this game with little more than a Racing Form. I agree with you that the available statistical data is especially useful for first-time starters, etc. However, it can be a red herring if overemphasized. Old-fashioned handicapping beats trainer stats most of the time, even today.

tony f,
I'm going to agree with you about Majestic Warrior. Not that there's anything wrong with him or the way he won. I just wasn't blown away. It seemed that Ready's Image and Maimonides either didn't love 7 furlongs or didn't bring their best race that day. Majestic Warrior was outrun until the eighth pole and closed pretty well, but also didn't have any traffic in the short field. Probably too early to say how the 2 year olds are going to sort themselves out, especially at 1 1/16 in the BCJuv.

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For someone who doesn't like Beyer speed figures, I do have an understanding of how they're computed nevertheless. Maybe that's why I don't use them, come to think about it.

Each track has an employee of Beyer Associates whose only job is to compute the daily variant. Sometimes, a different variant is computed for sprints and routes, or for early and late races on the card. Also, unusually fast races are often treated in isolation. This is what happened in Lawyer Ron's Whitney. The purpose of the variant is to estimate how fast/slow the track is for that day (or group of races). The important thing to realize is that on some days, you might only have 2 or 3 samples to construct the variant. On other days, you might be using 5 or 6, depending on the card and how it's broken up. The variant is also influenced by the kind of horses running in those races. On a Tuesday, you might have a parade of cheap claimers and maidens. On BC day (at whatever venue), you have the cream of the crop. However, BSFs do not EXPLICITLY take class into consideration. They do not take pace into consideration at all. Only final time (Dan is right) compared to the daily variant, which is obtained from the relevant races on the card. That's the reason why Beyer stresses to analyze how the number was earned... it's because he doesn't factor things like pace and trouble into his figure.

Midnight Lute ran a good race in good time, and (I think) his 124 ranks among the top 20(?) Beyers of all time. At 7 furlongs, it might be one of the top 7 or 8? I'm not really sure if that's true. While he ran a good race, I find it very hard to believe that it was one of the best performances of the last 15 years in the AB (After-Beyer) era.

I think Hard Spun's King Bishop was every bit as good. At least it was just as visually impressive. Then again, visual impressions can be a bit misleading when comparing a run-away winner (Midnight Lute) to a stretch-duel winner (Hard Spun).

I will say this... Hard Spun was within half a length of a faster early pace and still ran a decent (albeit slower) final time. Midnight Lute sat off a duel between Attila's Storm (who is probably better at 6f than 7f and may not be the same horse he once was) and High Finance (who, IMO, is no great sprinter). Attila's Storm put away High Finance and was under the whip shortly there after. Midnight Lute ran very well, I won't take that away from him. He also beat, IMO, a slightly better field than the King's Bishop group, and did so convincingly... no stretch duel needed. But I think Hard Spun ran well too, having survived a faster early pace and outgaming a stalker who was sitting off that pace. I guess I can understand why there's such a big point difference (BSFs use FINAL time), but I think Midnight Lute and Hard Spun are much closer in quality than the numbers might suggest, at least based on those races.

As far as potential threats for the 6f BC Sprint, I wasn't overly impressed with either one of those 7f fields, but I guess those are the best sprinters we have on the East Coast right now(?) Luckily, we still have another round of preps to go, but I'm wondering if the west-coast sprinters like Greg's Gold, Bordonaro, and In Summation (Ky-based?) are just a little bit better. It's not their fault they're running on polytrack right now. We'll see, it's still a bit early to make BC predictions.

C

Posted by: C on September 05, 2007 at 02:27 PM

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P-6 @DLM 9/05
2 Tickets, have a single in the 9th, 1st leg, #4 Drill Down- Baze jumping from STS, and besides Dan likes him.
In the 8th, 2nd leg singled #8 Placid Lake, had a bad trip last out, just feel he is the one to beat.

Leg #1
5th 4,11
6th 1,5
7th 2,9,10
8th 3,8
9th 4
10th 7,8 $96 ticket

Leg #2
5th 2,4
6th 2,8
7th 8,10
8th 8
9th 4,11
10th 3,8 $64 ticket

Good Luck

Posted by: Johnny Z on September 05, 2007 at 03:48 PM

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Watch out for Dixie Chatter.

I was in Mandella's barn a few weeks ago and all anyone would talk about was Dixie Chatter. They said he is the best two year old in the barn...better than Kanan Dume.

Granted, being best doesn't alwas translate into winning early, but it should be taken into account when throwing down.

I'll play him in my tri:
Leonides, Dixie Chatter, Salute the Sarge...boxem.

Posted by: Supah Blitz on September 05, 2007 at 06:57 PM

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Delmar R9 #8 wps

Posted by: Primo on September 05, 2007 at 09:19 PM

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I know there are more important things going on in the world of racing, but thought I'd mention that April Frost has put in two 5f works at Keeneland this past week. Dan, if you have any info on where she's headed or what the layoff was about - I'd love to hear about it. thanks.

Posted by: Joseph on September 09, 2007 at 12:33 AM

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