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FormBlog | October 03, 2007
Disabled List, Oak Tree, Roundhouse, Nashoba HOY?
Here's the updated disabled list. Please let me know if there are any omissions.
Horse, Last start, Injury Type, Next start or major goal
Art Master, Woodbine Mile 9/16, quarter crack hind foot,*
Asi Siempre, Delaware Handicap 7/15, Bruised foot, Spinster 10/7**
Attima, Sen. Ken Maddy 10/26, Bled, ???
Bear Holiday, Silver Deputy 8/25, Pulled hip muscle, Gulfstream 2008
Better Talk Now, United Nations 7/7, Sore muscle, ankle, BC Turf or Can Int'l???
Big Brown, maiden special weight 9/3, undisclosed, Bourbon 10/7
Black Seventeen, Carry Back 7/7, Ankle, Late 2007/early 2008
Brother Derek, Strub 2/3, bone chip ankle, 2008
Buffalo Man, OBS Championship, 2/12, condylar fracture, Select 10/27
Buzzards Bay, San Diego 7/31, Illness, Clark 11/23
Chatain, N3x allowance 8/6, Bruised foot, Fall/Winter 2007
Chelokee, Northern Dancer 6/16, Ankle, now ridgeling, 2008
Coach Jimi Lee, Wateford Park 5/19, splint-bone injury, no timetable
Crossing the Line, Del Mar Mile 8/19, Bone chip ankle, 2008
Don's Folly, Simcoe 9/3, condylar fracture hind leg, February 2008???
Dream Rush, Test 8/4, Minor illness, BC FM Sprint 10/27
Great Hunter, Kentucky Derby 5/5, Bone chip ankle, ???
Harlington, optional claimer 5/24, foot injury, ???
Jambalaya, Arlington Million 8/11, Cannon bone bruise, 2008
J Be K, maiden special weight 8/29, Temperature, ???
Kanan Dume, Del Mar Futurity 9/5, Chipped ankle, 2008
Leonides, Del Mar Futurity 9/5, Bruised foot, ???
Liquidity, Kentucky Derby 5/5, Tendon, November???
Magnificience, Santa Paula 4/1, Chip left front ankle, ???
Maimonides, Hopeful 9/3, Bucked shins, ???
Makderah, Glens Falls 9/3, Fractured pastern, ???
Mistical Plan, Kentucky Oaks 5/4, Unspecified, ???
More Happy, Spinaway 9/2, obstructed airway, ???
Nicki Knew, maiden special weight 8/23, saucer fracture, 2008
Notional, Florida Derby 3/31, Cannon bone fracture, Late fall???
Papi Chullo, Iselin 8/18, Bled, Aqueduct winter meet
Princess Janie, Gallant Bloom 9/22, gashed left front foot, Miss Woodford 10/27
Proud Tower Too, San Carlos 2/17, Torn tendon, ???
Rags to Riches, Gazelle 9/15, Fractured pastern, 2008 California???
Rated Fiesty, Debutante 7/7, Unspecified, 2008
Ravel, Sham 2/3, hairline fracture left foreleg, Strub Series 2008
Sedgefield, Kentucky Derby 5/5, Bone Chip Ankle, ***
Showing Up, Maker's Mark Mile 4/13, Suspensory, 2008 Gulfstream
Silver Wagon, Metropolitan Handicap 5/28, Cracked shin, 2008
Siren Lure, Triple Bend 7/7, Various foot ailments, Hollywood???
Spring At Last, Godolphin Mile 3/31, Bone chip ankle, ???
Subtle Aly, Schuylerville 7/25, Front end problems, 2008
Teammate, Ruffian 9/8, Ankle, Spinster 10/7???
Teuflesberg, King's Bishop 8/25, mucus in lungs, ****
Thor's Echo, Dubai Golden Shaheen 3/31, Bone chip ankle, 2008
Treadmill, Del Mar Debutante 9/3, Cut left hind leg, Hollywood Park meet
Utopia, Westchester 5/2, shed frog, *****
Whatsthescript, Crown Royal American Turf 5/4, Unspecified, ???
* entered in Saturday's Shadwell Turf Mile (Grade 1) at Keeneland
**breezed five furlongs in 1:00.40 over Keeneland's Polytrack on Wednesday.
***entered in Saturday's Indiana Derby (Grade 2) at Hoosier Park.
****entered in Saturday's Pheonix Stakes (Grade 3) at Keeneland
*****entered in Friday's Meadowlands Cup (Grade 2) at The Meadowlands
Dan,Thanks for the great tutorial on lead changes. My question is this, in route races, do horses change leads other than in the stretch run?
Mike Romeo
Yes. Horses are trained to race on their correct (right) lead on the straightaways, and on their left lead on the turns. If you watch the gallop-outs on the race replays, you'll often see a horse switch to the left lead when they hit the clubhouse turn.
***
...what happened to iron horse tuefelsburg. think he makes one of these races like the sprint or mile??
jim
It depends on how he does in the Phoenix on Saturday. If he runs well there, I'm guessing we'll see him in the Sprint on BC Day.
***
Hey Dan. Do you think a case can be made for Nashoba's Key being HOY assuming she wins a BC race? I posted this on some other website, but they all laughed at the idea of a west coast filly winning on the east. It would be 3 G1s and 2 G2s if she won.
RJ
It's not a ludicrous idea. If she wins the Breeders' Cup, and if something wacky happens in the Classic, then you can make a case for her. If a horse like Curlin wins the Classic, it's hard not to give him Horse of the Year. But, let's say Any Given Saturday wins the Classic, and Nashoba's Key wins the FM Turf. Do you give Horse of the Year honors to AGS based on his Brooklyn, Haskell, Sam Davis, and BC Classic? Or, do you give more weight to Nashoba's Key's BC FM Turf, Yellow Ribbon, Clement Hirsch, Vanity, Milady, and Frans Valentine? The more I think about it, the more it makes sense. She's a legitimate contender for the crown if she wins at Monmouth.
***
Dan,
Unless I missed it don't remember you posting any thoughts on The Roundhouse (Fusaichi Pegasus). To me he has the glamour pedigree of all the hyped 2 yr olds. His dam Circle Of Life has Alydar 2 back and, he has Danzig on top and, bottom. I see the RH getting better as the distances get longer; your thoughts?...
johnny z
His half-brother, Circular Quay, didn't really improve with age and distance. He won the Bashford Manor and Hopeful at two, and while he did take the Louisiana Derby this year, he flopped as the distances got longer. The Roundhouse doesn't have much speed, and is often left at a disadvantage because of his lack of early foot. He acts like he'll do better as the distances increase, but so did Circular Quay, and it really didn't work out that way. With young horses, you just have to wait and see, but I'm usually looking for a more brilliant type when I scope out the babies.
***
Dan,
Do you have the past performances for Smarty Deb and do you know of any videos out there also?
Calvin Carter
Here are her pp's. As Alan pointed out, calracing.com seems like the best place to watch her races.
Download smarty_deb.PDF
***
Some horses, no matter what, just can't be taught to do it. Years ago, there was a horse at Hastings Park (raced at Emerald Downs also) that was the fastest horse i had ever seen called "Knave" (Dan - if you could pull the PP's as evidence) He would go 21, 43( i think he went 42 & change at Emerald once) but tire in the stretch because of this failure to change leads. They wound up taking him to Churchill and running him in those short turf sprints because of this. Beautiful horse though!
Brian
I've always thought that the failure to change leads meant one of two things. Either the horse is green and still learning to run, or has a physical problem. That's why I watch the lead changes carefully when I'm doing my trip handicapping. If a young horse doesn't change leads, I'm more forgiving. The horse is still learning the game. If it's an older, more established horse that usually changes leads correctly, I'm concerned that this is evidence of an oncoming physical problem. Good memory on Knave, by the way.
Great post by Steve T. It would be interesting to know where the 100+ BSF came from...
Ray Manley
The seven runners that received 100+ Beyers over Del Mar's polytrack came from four races. They were the Bing Crosby (Greg's Gold, In Summation, Bordonaro), the Pat O' Brien (Greg's Gold, Surf Cat), a 100K optional claimer (Publication), and the San Diego Handicap (Sun Boat).
***
Dan, I have a Formulator question for you: do you know if there are plans to add synthetic surface information to the trainer form? For example, in the formulator PP for the Alicbiades this Friday, Frankle is shown as being 23% on Turf/Dirt moves..which obviously is misleading since this would be a Turf/Synthetic move. And if you go into the detailed trainer form, races over the polytrack are not designated as any different as those over the dirt. Seems like that would be an awfully useful element to add.
Matt
I agree with you 1000%. Hopefully, we'll include the polytrack numbers in an upcoming version of Formulator. I'll look into it, and let you know.
***
Dan,
What do you think of the new surface at Santa Anita?
Compared to the other synthetic surfaces I have watched,I thought it had played the fairest so far.Granted it has been only a week,but it already appears far superior to the plowed fields of Delmar and Keeneland.
It does seem to play fair, but it is also playing very fast. It's like night and day to Del Mar's swamp. It seems to play more like conventional dirt than the other synthetic surfaces out West so I do like that, but I fear that the inconsistency of the surfaces (Del Mar = slow, Santa Anita = fast, Hollywood = in the middle) will lead to horses for courses, and undulating form.
We'll talk about some of the weekend's big stakes races tomorrow.
Take care,
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on October 3, 2007 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
I don't disagree that Nashoba's Key is a logical HOY contender if something goofy happens in the Classic, but I think hell will freeze over before we see a filly turfer get HOY. Soaring Softly was as qualified as they came in 1999, and had a huge upset in the Classic (Cat Thief) plus no other standout, yet lost to Charismatic, who had the benefit of being good for 2 races in the Derby & Preakness. Heck, Artax and Daylami were better ideas that year. So while I think Nashoba's Key is qualified and a real nice horse, I can't see her winning over Street Sense, who did win the Derby & Travers and ran 2nd in the Preakness by a nose.
Posted by: ElAngelo on October 03, 2007 at 06:02 PM
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Where's Fantastic Spain the wobbly leg Neil Drysdale trainee.
Posted by: Deon R on October 03, 2007 at 07:39 PM
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Synthetic Surfaces
First, it is pretty obvious we are going to have to live with them. Truthfully, it appears that the problem is NOT synthetics as a whole, but Polytrack singularly. Not a peep about Hollywood, or Presque Isle, interestingly the Cushion at Santa Anita is "too fast", huh?? it is the same frickin' track as Hollywood! It certainly looks faster after they come from Del Mar.
From a handicapping perspective I have absolutely no problem with Cushion Track or Tapeta - both seem to play very fairly. The carps about Keeneland, Del Mar, Woodbine, and Turfway are less than for Del Mar, but IMHO this stuff is far from the best choice for racing surfaces.
Del Mar plays like grass - but then again so does Keeneland. Watch this weekend for Asi Sempre, she was originally a grass horse (a very good grass horse) who made the transition to Poly easily (I made a ton on that race) then they migrated her to dirt and she is a little erratic. Watch how she does back on Poly - it will be a runaway.
Posted by: Steve T on October 03, 2007 at 07:53 PM
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Interesting developments-Shakespear will be pre-entered in both Mile and Turf, with trainer concerned about post. Ditto with After Market.
The underfeated filly LaTrivotia may go against the boys as the F&M Sprint is ungraded.
Not many Euro's probably coming with tight turns and short stretch at Monmouth-advantage English Chunnel. Third try the charm?
Sarava-now that was a price for a Belmont winner. Birdstone also paid handsome.
Posted by: Andrew Carpenter on October 03, 2007 at 08:13 PM
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Dan, three questions:
1-Anyone at DRF know why D.C. residents, such as myself, cannot use any internet account wagering sites?
2-Injury query:Hyperbaric, a rising West Coast turf filly?
3-Anything specific cause the apparent rift between Carla Gaines and Victor Espinoza?
Posted by: Mike Soper on October 03, 2007 at 08:27 PM
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Add Take D'Tour to the retired list, she injured her left foreleg and is off to the shed.
Posted by: Steve T on October 03, 2007 at 08:34 PM
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Well, my longshot pick at OSA, Lightning Gulch, looked like a winner for the first 1/2 mile of the msw - too bad there was still another 1/2 mile to run (he came in last place!!!) Still a good day (I wasn't originally planning to bet much today - but the races kept coming up with some 'live' possibilities!)
Utopia is finally back this weekend in the 9F Meadowlands Cup - I was hoping to see him instead in the BC Classic (or even better, the BC Dirt Mile) - well, maybe if Utopia wins, he'll go anyway?? The 7yo has won almost $5mil in his career, mostly in Japan (and also Dubai - he won the 2006 Mile on World Cup Day!)
Here are the pp's for the race, courtesy of Pletcher/Brisnet:
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_89824.pdf
You really need to watch the video of the Westchester to get an idea about how good Utopia is as a racehorse - click the video icon in the Bloodhorse story below to see the race - it's worth it:
http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38746#
In his FIRST RACE IN OVER A YEAR, Utopia stalks the fast early pace of Happy Hunting in the Westchester (Happy Hunting can't keep it up and fades to last.) Around the turn and into the stretch, Utopia is passed by both Political Force and Sun King - yet then surges back on the rail by both of them to win by a length!!! (Political Force comes back a month later to win the Suburban; Sun King is... well...I can't say anything bad about him - he should just move to California to face those 'weak sister' West Coast handicap horses - he'd win then...)
9F may be a furlong too long for Utopia, but I'll still bet my hard earned "Alan Garcia longshot" money that he can win the 'Swamps of Jersey Cup' Friday night!
Posted by: Alan on October 03, 2007 at 08:45 PM
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Siren Lure ran up the track in a tiny stake @ HOL this past weekend I believe-fellow up the tracker Cobalt Blue
Posted by: Stephanie on October 03, 2007 at 09:01 PM
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Sam,
I see that Marina Market was claimed by Paul Giacopelli (Gary Sciacca) - did you guys decide not to claim the horse or did you "lose the shake"?
Posted by: Alan on October 03, 2007 at 09:17 PM
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Dear Dan, Please keep my name unavailable as I do not wish to die. Here is my comment. How is it that trainers have 6 or 4 positive test, been banned from Hong Kong and other places and they are actualy allowed to even walk onto the grounds of the racetrack? I was always taught that cheaters never prospere, however that is so not the case in racing. I am very proud to say that we have NEVER had a positive. Why should we have to race against cheaters all the time. At least we do kick their asses at times. One positive or two might be an unintential mistake, but 4 or 6 or cobra venom in the barn? Give me a break, these people are cheating!! No doubt. Why are they alowed to keep showing up and racing horses? No wonder why horse racing has a bad name!
Posted by: not available on October 03, 2007 at 10:15 PM
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I didn't know what to think of the additional Bc races at first but, know I'm loving them. Think they will all be competitive, betting races. I am particulary interested in the Juv Turf as I feel Turf races take a back seat in the U.S. Most of you know my high opinion of Prussian from previous post. With Pletcher moving The Leopard to Turf really adds some spice to this one. By the way Prussian posted a bullet 4F H @ Saratoga this morning 4F in 48.6.
Food for thought, I don't know how many of you will be playing the P-4 @ Keeneland Friday or, betting that card. The 9th Alcibiades S. G-1 1 1/16 2 yr F is a very interesting race. Most of the money will be put on Irish Smoke, & Dreaming of Liz. I like DOL alot but, she won't go off near her 6/1ML. I don't like Irish Smoke to win this at all. A couple I like really well is A To the Croft (bad post position) but, will like the 2 turns and increase in distance. Also will add if she had long blonde hair and, shake & bake boobs would be Hugh Hefners play mate of the year. She is absolutly one of the more beautiful horses I have ever seen!
The second one I like and, feel has a great chance to sneak a win in is the G Motion trained #1 Initiation (Deputy Minister) 12/1 ML. Initiation's dam is Proposal which imparts plenty of stamina. She won her MDN with an 86 Bris Spd., and increased her lead in the stretch from 3L to 10L under a hand ride. That plus the fact her works have been superb is enough to consider a W/P and, definetly an A or B play in the P-4. The other horse I can't ignore in this one is Grace Anatomy ML 6-1. She ran very well on the trash @ Del. and has trained well since. So Steve T just for you if GA stays anywhere near her ML I will place a W/P bet on her.
Received an e-mail from a friend in Dallas I have to share as any Horse player will appreciate the story:
Sitting by the window of her convent, Sister Josephine opened a letter from home one evening. Inside the letter was $100 bill from her family.
Sister Josephine smiled at the gesture. As she read the letter, she notice a poorly dressed stranger leaning against the street light below her apartment.
Quickly she wrote "Don't Despair, Sister Josephine" on a piece of paper, wrapped the $100 bill in it, got the man's attention and tossed it out the window to him.
The stranger picked it up with amazement on his face. He tipped his hat & left.
The next evening Sister Josephine was told that a man was at her door and, adamant that he see her. She went down and, found the stranger from the night before. With out a word he handed her a large stack of $100 bills. Whats this Sister Josephine ask? The stranger replied that's $8000 you have coming sister: "Don't Despair paid 80/1"!
Moral of the story, good things happen to good people!
Good night & good luck to all tomorrow.
Posted by: johnny z on October 03, 2007 at 11:46 PM
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For those still interested in changing leads, here are some questions/answers with hall of fame trainer John Veitch concerning Alydar. The interview can be read in its entirety at www.bloodhorse.com/talkinhorses/JV060707.asp
Chantilly, VA:
In hindsight, do you think there was anything you might have done with Alydar that might have helped him beat Affirmed; e.g. change of equipment, jockeys, learn to change leads, run up the rail, etc.?
Veitch:
I really don’t. I have gone over it a thousand times in my head. One thing the public probably doesn’t know is that Alydar almost never changed leads in the afternoon but in the mornings he changed leads perfectly. But there was just something about the intensity of the way he did things that precluded him from changing leads. It would be one thing if he wouldn’t do it in the morning, which would give us something to work on. It did put him a little bit of a disadvantage. I took blinkers off after the Preakness going into the Belmont, and a number of riders rode him, Jorge Velasquez rode him the most and was a perfect fit for him, although Alydar had so much natural ability almost any rider could have ridden him and done well. I would like to have another shot.
North Fort Myers, FL:
Did Alydar have trouble changing leads during the stretch run in his triple crown races and if so, was this a major factor?
Veitch:
When you have a horse that has difficulty changing leads, it could be related to a physical problem, which Alydar did not have until he injured himself. Alydar was a natural in the morning. If felt that between his 2-year-old year and his 3-year-old year, particularly when the races were going to be run at greater distances, it was certainly a very important thing for him to be able to change leads in the afternoon. I spent a great deal of time thinking about it. But you really can’t make any improvement when he would do it perfectly in the morning. When I would work him in the morning he would change leads like a ballerina. But in the afternoon he would not. I think more than anything else it was concentration. When you are running at that speed and he was running with so much heart and dedication, you really don’t want to mess with it. In the heat of battle he’s giving you everything he’s got and it was just something we couldn’t control."
I too have a great deal of difficulty trying to spot this from the little screen boxes.
Posted by: Davey700 on October 04, 2007 at 01:08 AM
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After watching the replay of the JGC, Political Force intrigues me. He really seems to relish the distance --plus he'll fit the "bomber" roll of recent longshot winners of the classic. I suspect odds of 15-1 or higher. Allen Jerkins has had many an upset on big racing days.... just wondering what's his luck on Breeders Cup day?
Posted by: Joe Private on October 04, 2007 at 08:05 AM
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"WIN AND YOUR IN" IS A SIN (Chapter ??)
I am handicapping the SAT KEE card and the G3 Phoenix is apparently a "Win And Your In" race for the BC Sprint. These are the horses entered for the race:
#1 Cowboy Hardware - No Graded Stakes wins, No Graded Stakes races
#2 Indian Chant - No Graded Stakes wins, No Graded Stakes races
#3 Connections - No Graded Stakes wins, No Graded Stakes races
#4 Rebellion - No Graded Stakes wins, No Graded Stakes races
#5 Saint Anddan - One Graded Stakes win (Gr2 CD), Two Graded Stakes races
#6 Dream of Angels - No Graded Stakes wins, No Graded Stakes races
#7 Off Duty - No Graded Stakes wins, Two Graded Stakes races
#8 Teuflesberg - One Graded Stakes win (Gr2 WStphn), 13 Graded Stakes races
#9 Markum - No Graded Stakes wins, No Graded Stakes races
#10 He Loves Me Not - No Graded Stakes wins, No Graded Stakes races
#11 Museeb - No Graded Stakes wins, Two Graded Stakes races (one US, one EURO)
TOTAL GRADED STAKES WINS BY THE HORSES ENTERED IN THIS RACE: TWO!!! (Three, if you want to include the ungraded Southwest won by Teuflesberg earlier this year)
NUMBER OF HORSES WHO HAVE EVEN RUN IN A GRADED STAKES RACE - 4
NUMBER OF HORSES WHO HAVE NEVER RUN IN A GRADED STAKES RACE - 7
Dan,
MOST OF THE HORSES ENTERED IN THIS "WIN AND YOUR IN" RACE HAVE NEVER EVEN RUN IN A GRADED STAKES OF ANY KIND!!...AND THEY ARE GUARANTEED BC ENTRY IF THEY WIN THIS RACE??
THIS IS A JOKE!!
THIS IS ONCE AGAIN AN EMBARRASSMENT TO RACING!!
What good horse will either be excluded from the BC Sprint or potentially get a bad post at MTH because they let the winner of this race automatically gain entry?
Posted by: Alan on October 04, 2007 at 09:22 AM
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Looks like you might be able to purchase Tuefelsburg for your own come November!
From the Keeneland Nov. Book...
http://apps.keeneland.com/sales/nov07/pdfs/590.pdf
Posted by: Mut on October 04, 2007 at 09:32 AM
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They are running Guts (Nutzapper) right back on Sunday after the Norfolk last Sunday. I was disappointed with his non-effort in that race and the short turnaround makes me nervous, but...
Posted by: Steve T on October 04, 2007 at 10:57 AM
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Dan,
Thanks for the past performances on Smarty Deb.
Alan,
Great score on Sarava! Let's hope we hit a big one in the Breeders' Cup.
Posted by: Calvin Carter on October 04, 2007 at 11:15 AM
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"What good horse will either be excluded from the BC Sprint or potentially get a bad post at MTH because they let the winner of this race automatically gain entry?"
Alan,
When you really think about it, the answer is 'probably none'. The race is going to be filled to capacity no matter what. Also, The winners of the 'win and you're in' races would most likely be able to get in anyway. You might ask, 'How could the winner of such a weak graded stakes race be selected?' My answer would be that half the horses in each BC field are pure fluff anyway... especially now with the over-expansion to 11 races.
The Breeders Cup is starting to become a joke and I imagine we're going to start seeing some pretty bad horses win these races and gain champion status. I HATE the idea of adding these new races. A 2yo Turf??? What? With very few exceptions (Barbaro, DreamingOfAnna), turf is a last-resort for American-based 2yos. Why would we make a G1 race for that division? Seems like an oxymoron. Maybe polytrack has something to do with it. One day, we're going to see first-time starters enter these 2yo races. I wouldn't be surprised if they break up the JuvTurf into male and female categories down the road.
I'll make a prediction... next year at SA, they're going to add a turf sprint BC race. You heard it here first. That will make 12 watered-down races, 12 'champions' proving themselves against watered-down fields. As competitive as some of the 3 new Friday races figure to be, I refuse to wager a dime on any of them. I hope these divisions evaporate, but I don't think they will... this is all about money and greed.
Is anyone going to take the winner of the BC JuvTurf or the BC F&M Sprint very seriously? I won't. I'm not a compulsive sort, but I'd be tempted to blindly bet against those 'champions' next time (if there IS a next time) no matter how impressively they win their weak Cup race.
In MY world, you'd have the Classic, Sprint, Turf, Mile, and one 2yo race. That's it. No F&M Turf or F&M Sprint. No Distaff either. No JuvTurf, JuvFillies or Turf Sprint. Weight allowances would be given to females, except in the 2yo race. If you're over 2 years old and want to run on dirt, your options are to run long in the Classic or short in the Sprint. If you race on turf, you can either go long (Turf) or shorter (Mile). That's it. We can't customize 100 races for 100 different horses. You take what we offer and suck it up to run slightly outside your comfort zone or you don't run at all, it's that simple. Limit each field to 14 starters and let a committee of turf writers and public handicappers decide the fields. If you don't make the cut, you're out. That's how you create legit champions. This is how Europeans conduct most of their day-to-day races. It's also a big reason why their B- and C-grade stock have a class edge when they come to the USA. Ouija Board defeated top males in Europe. Here, she had the option of trouncing a weaker field in the F&M Turf. Too bad... she might have trounced Better Talk Now as well.
C
Posted by: C on October 04, 2007 at 11:59 AM
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ALCIBIADES (Keeneland 9th)
1 INITIATION (69-X-X-X) – is an interesting second time starter, winning at first urging by 10 lengths in a hand ride. Five bullet works, 20% jock in Gomez, 21% trainer in Motion. The win was against lesser at Laurel in a BSF of 69, but could have been as far as they wanted. Very dangerous.
2 DREAMING OF LIZ (77-73-46-X) – one of the favorites, has won last two without a lot of effort. Three bullet works, loves Poly, jock is at 25%, trainer at 34%!! Has been very professional in all of her starts.
3 MORAKAMI (69-69-X-X) – finished 5th in the Spinaway to Irish Smoke and A to the Croft. Works and connections are average. Did beat next out winner Sunday Holiday in first start. Tough spot for this one.
4 IRISH SMOKE (84-95-X-X) two races, two wins, the last being the Grade 1 Spinaway. Has the “French connections” (Cobra King and Leparoux). Not sure how she will handle the track, and with this being two year old fillies, that could be enough to consider others. Couldn’t fault anyone who likes her.
5 MINEWANDER (68-65-59-61) – although Beyers are low, not a total throw out. Came late in last against two of these on Poly, Connections are low average.
6 FRENCH KISS (78-72-61-71) – has been raced at increasing distances (5.5 to 6 to 7 to 8F) with nice Beyer progression. Is 4/4 ITM, but is still a maiden. Hard to think she will break her maiden against these. Connections are low average. Would use under.
7 STARTSWAMPINDOWSKI (64-57-X-X) – won as FTS, but was soundly beaten by three of these in last at a mile. Asmussen trains and Bridgmohan aboard. Works are not great. Don’t see a repeat performance yielding a different result. Pass.
8 BEE’S WAX (62-X-X-X) – won at first start, a 76k MSW on Tapeta. Connections are above average. Works are decent. Big ladder to climb.
9 GRACE ANATOMY (86-75-X-X) – an Aldebaran filly who ran strong twice at Del Mar, so if she can handle that Keeneland should be easier. Average connections, works are nice. The BSF’s at DM are notoriously low, and the jump from 75 to 86 are compelling. Acts like an increase in distance will be a big plus. Her first race had multiple next out winners. She won from the 10 post last out. Hard to ignore.
10 COUNTRY STAR (89-X-X-X) – big place at this distance on the turf. Three week turnaround to this race. Frankel trains and Bejarano rides. Works aren’t spectacular, but with a FTS of 89 and the turf to Poly angle, could very well be. Makes me very nervous leaving her out.
11 RASIERRA (72-63-43-62) – this is her 6th race (at 5 tracks), 4/5 ITM, finished second to Dreaming of Liz in last (at 56/1). Don’t leave this one out of your unders, and if you are looking for a mortgage payer consider her.
12 A TO THE CROFT (77-79-72-X) – last was a place in the Spinaway, previous was a second in the Adirondack (with a very bad start). Two places in two graded races, and increase in distance is probably a plus.
13 SUNDAY HOLIDAY – was scratched and shipped east today.
This is a very tough race to handicap. Besides being my favorite group (two year old fillies) – NOT, just about every angle is covered. You have turf to Poly, second time starters, bunches stretching out, live longshots, something for everybody.
Picks:
Win: GRACE ANATOMY
Place: DREAMING OF LIZ
Show: A TO THE CROFT
Longshot: INITIATION
Posted by: Steve T on October 04, 2007 at 12:17 PM
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C,
I agree with you on the dilution throughout racing - although I like the added 2yo turf race - but this Phoenix field is ridiculous, and takes any comparison to any other W-a-Y-I race to another level!
At least if you are going to have this "Win and Your In" concept, have it with G1 races - not one of the weakest G3s you could find. How many other non2yo stakes races will you find so many starters having never run in a stakes race EVER - and with potentially so much at stake? (I know, we could argue the value of the win itself, but that's not my point...)
I understand that we are trying to sell racing to the general public to attract new/more interest, but we also have to still at the same time try to keep it legitimate for those of us who have been the primary target audience and supporters all along!
Posted by: Alan on October 04, 2007 at 12:35 PM
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INDIANA OAKS (Hoosier Park 9th)
1 HUMBLE JANET (82-84-88-78) – last three races were graded, with two places, finished 4th against Octave, Lear’s Pricess and Folk in CCA Oaks. Asmussen and Albarado. Is 4/4 ITM at the distance. Definitely an under.
1A APPEALING ZOPHIE (77-88-75-26) – weird sort, has been running sprints against Dream Rush and La Traviata, has run at this distance (1/4). Anything can happen but not my first choice.
2 LE CHATEAU (71-85-83-83) – bit off more than she could chew last out (Lear’s Princess, RTR, Tough Tiz’s Sis in the Gazelle). Don’t see a lot to like.
3 TICKET TO SEATTLE (92-89-83-88) – she is a sprinter, plain and simple. Longest distance to date was a mile where she finished last by 50 lengths. Sorry I don’t understand this entry in this race. Hasta la vista baby.
4 FOREST HUNTRESS (78-94-58-78) – Hollendorfer ships this one, which is significant because he is not big on shipping and if he does they usually have a shot. She is 2/2 ITM at the distance. High percentage connections. Went absolutely berserk in the slop two back so if it rains RUN to the window. Live longshot.
5 POLYNESIAN KITTY (80-73-X-76) – should have no business in this race, but here is the classic big fish in a little pond coming to play with the big kids. Is 2/2 ITM at the distance and 8/16 lifetime win. Tall order for little fish.
6 BAVARIAN BELLE (91-64-65-78) – don’t know what to make of her, her last at Mountaineer on turf was 15 points above her par. Mainly a turfer, 1/3 on the dirt. Just can’t see her with these.
7 BOCA GRANDE (92-98-83-80) – look up “underachiever” in the dictionary and that is her picture. Her wins have come on the front end, coming off of four straight G-1’s and three G-2’s. So class wise she is head and shoulders above these. On class alone have to consider.
8 MARIETTA (85-91-85-81) – look up “overachiever” in the dictionary and that is HER picture. A late developing filly who seems to be on a roll. Bejarano and Eoin Harty. Won the Iowa Oaks, beating Humble Janet by 2. She is 2/2 ITM at the distance and 6/8 ITM lifetime. But last two were solid wins against decent competition.
9 MARQUISE (73-79-74-67) – Finished last to Marietta and Humble Janet in her last on Poly. Tough to think that she can hold these off. Will be the likely frontrunner. No.
10 AMATURE’S PRIZE (80-73-61-61) – the local entry (2/2 at Hoosier). But has never faced anything approaching this group. Has been running on turf last 4 with very mixed results. Is 5/5 ITM on dirt, but all were in sprints. Pass.
11 TESSA BLUE (96-88-62-69) – another late developing filly whose last two were quite good. Was just beaten by West Coast Swing last out at this distance. Can’t discount based on last two.
Picks:
Win: BOCA GRANDE
Place: MARIETTA
Show: TESSA BLUE
Longshot: FOREST HUNTRESS
Posted by: Steve T on October 04, 2007 at 01:13 PM
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Steve T,
Hope you are correct concerning Grace Anatomy. Any thoughts on how horses are running after escaping from Del Mars science experiment surface?
Big Chok
Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on October 04, 2007 at 02:01 PM
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I was at the BC in Louisville this past year and from Invasor to Bernardini the one true star who's name kept poping up as the horse fans came to see was Quiji Board. Which brings me to my point is Peeping Fawn on the Arc card? Is she possible for the BC? and does she deserve to be in mentioned in the same breath as the great Quiji Board.
Posted by: Hillbilly on October 04, 2007 at 02:14 PM
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I beleive Shakespeare has a better shot in JD turf than the mile so much more can go wrong in the mile than the JD turf. He is such a talent and the mile looks to be a tougher race from what I'm hearing. What about Dylan Thomas? BC or not?
Posted by: Hillbilly on October 04, 2007 at 02:16 PM
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On Changing Leads - just like there are left handed people there must be "left footed" horses, so when they are accused of going to the "wrong lead" they are actually going to the right lead (actually left lead).
How's that for a wacko theory? Wife is laughing her ass off "left handed horses??" Go do the laundry or something, or I'll be forced to trade you in on a pair of twenty year olds.
Sigh, her response? "You can keep any twenty year old you can catch, but she stays outside and YOU take care of her". Damn, where is the frickin' manual for these estrogen driven models??
Posted by: Steve T on October 04, 2007 at 02:18 PM
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Steve T,
WOW - the Indiana Oaks looks like an interesting race - the three ML favs will be a small test of the 'NY racing is the best' hypothesis:
#3 Ticket To Seattle (ML:4/1) -> as you noted, the typical DEL speedball...
#7 Boca Grande (ML:5/2) -> representing the Empire State (I'm still mad at her for losing the Acorn...) Now are you calling her classy because she races in NY (because BTW she rarely wins these 'classy' races - the 3yo female version of SunKing?)
#8 Marietta (ML:7/2) -> the Pride of the Heartland of America (of course she is owned by....DARLEY STABLE!), hasn't lost since the Selene (as you might remember, a KEYRACE!)
My money will be on the horse representing the Heartland of Dubai, OOPS...America!
Posted by: Alan on October 04, 2007 at 02:27 PM
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Dan,
I didn't see any mention of Einstein on your disabled list, and can't seem to find out what's going on with him.
He looked like a turf monster earlier in the year and ever since he had to dodge the horse that fell in front of him (I think it was the Dixie on the Preakness undercard) he hasn't been seen since.
I know Helen Pitts was talking about possibly running him in the Stephen Foster on dirt, but, since then...nary a word.
Posted by: Derek on October 04, 2007 at 02:28 PM
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Hillbilly,
Was also in attendence @ last years BC in Louisville. Agree with you, the aura around Quiji Board was rock star status.
Aidan O'brien reported last week "Peeping Fawn is unlikely to run again this year, with the intention to keep her in training next year". Its a shame as think she would have added luster to the BC. Any horse that can win 4 G-1s in an 8 week period has to be special. BTW Peeping Fawn and, Rags To Riches have the same grand dam (Blush With Pride), and both compete under the silks of Michael Tabor.
Maybe PF will make the BC in 2008
Posted by: Johnny Z on October 04, 2007 at 03:45 PM
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Hi Steve,
After all this discussion about BSFs, I'm a little confused why you'd bother listing them after each horse as if they mean something. Let's say there IS an east-coast bias... which numbers are actually correct, east or west? or neither? What about Mountaineer and other tracks? The Beyers for each region is determined by a different person, so how can one make sense of ANY of them? If one circuit is questionable, they ALL are.
-CMI
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Personally, I think Beyer's entire methodology is greatly flawed to begin with, but I don't hold it against him. I just choose to ignore his figures. Before DRF published his numbers, he was using his own figures to make money. All the power to him... he stayed to himself and didn't force his numbers on anyone. In fact, he still doesn't!! Nobody's forcing the horseplayer to use BSFs, whether they're published or not. I don't necessarily think Beyer should have to answer to anybody. Is Lee Tomlinson ever asked to back up his sire ratings? Why should anyone feel they have to use someone else's figures? As teachers always warn, keep your eyes on your own paper.
The Beyer backlash was inevitable. When his figures went public, the game simultaneously changed drastically... horses started shipping all over the country and new conditions were added to the class structure-- and DRF wanted figures for every track in North America. He therefore needed to assemble a large team which introduced error and individual biases into the system. The numbers became as subjective as a baseball umpire's strike zone-- and there were dozens of umpires. Everyone knows that. This isn't really Beyer's fault.. it's the fault of anyone who expects his figures to answer their handicapping questions. Handicapping has no such shortcuts.
Posted by: C on October 04, 2007 at 04:26 PM
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Mike -
I too am a DC resident...opened a youbet account a few months ago and was shut out over this past. I called and customer service said DC passed some law but had no other info. I looked and DC has not passed any law...and read on bloodhorse (i think) that many ADW's do not take DC action.
Why did they allow me to open an account in the first place? if dan or anyone has any info I'd like to hear about alternatives.
john r
Posted by: john r on October 04, 2007 at 04:38 PM
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Dan - with all the BSF discussion...can you explain some of the differences between BSF, equibase and Brisnet #'s. What do my fellow bloggers use in terms of "forms."
thanks.
john r
Posted by: john r on October 04, 2007 at 04:42 PM
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John R.: this is a very confusing situation where-surprise, surprise-the horseplayer suffers. Youbet seems to be having a bad time recently, but has no good excuse for their action/inaction. Check Friday's Wash. Post for another article on this subject; I talked with the reporter today. It's a real mess. The other sites have followed suit. No solutions on the horizon.
Alan; Hope you had Garcia in the 9th at Belmont. Another great ride. I had WP and the DD. Also I think he has mounts at Meadowlands tonight. Good luck in the Keeneland contest- my handle is tawee12. We should bet a lunch in DC on the final totals.
Posted by: Mike Soper on October 04, 2007 at 05:30 PM
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Big Chok,
Really a mixed bag, but overall they do seem to be stronger. Some of the horses "weighed down" by the DM Poly like Dixie Chatter have run great races at Santa Anita. Some that we were tracking by sire (esp. Old Topper and Tribal Rule) seem to have reverted to their Hollywood form. The upper echelon horses seem to be running true to form - Awesome Gem, Big Booster, Nashoba's Key, Student Council all have come back next race. There are two things I look for on the DM horses at other tracks that I key on:
1. Horses that led until the bitter end at DM and then were caught - they now seem to be able to carry the lead to the finish.
2. Horses that closed well at DM (not passing tired horses), like this one 10-2-7-6-3-1 (Grace Anatomy last race).
Like I said, 2 year old fillies are not my forte, but I think her past performances, speed, closing ability and win from the outside all add up to a legitimate shot.
Alan,
I know, I know - Boca Grande and class. So I end up choosing the underachiever AND the overachiever. Maybe it will rain and I can just jump Forest Huntress.
C,
Yeah, you're right. I know that the farther from center the more suspect the data - that is just a statistical fact, and you know the best and brightest are not out west... I started out handicapping long before the BSF and did quite well. But I am guilty of drinking the bath water and end up going back and forth using them and not using them. They are like smoking, you know it's not good for you but you can't quit.
Posted by: Steve T on October 04, 2007 at 06:24 PM
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Dan,
Has anyone integrated the Trackus distance into any kind of form? It would be very interesting to see the actual distance the horse traveled. I know that watching the race on a monitor it is a godsend, especially in a large field. Any other tracks planning on instituting it?
Posted by: Steve T on October 04, 2007 at 06:38 PM
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C,
I just saw your comment to Steve T - I'll try not to be too wordy (it's hard for me sometimes! - SORRY!) but try to explain how I feel about BSFs...
Despite my irritation with BSFs, I obviously still use them. They still remain useful comparing "same track horses" (always race at the same place), especially if that track is speed favoring and only has a few different race types - ELP, for example, was very 'Beyer friendly'. BSFs also help me decide if a "shipper" is in the same ballpark as the other horses in a race.
However, the notion that "Horse A is a 94 and B is a 91 - therefore A is the better horse", when these horses race at different tracks/circuits is IMO nonsense. Also, serially comparing Beyers on the same horse racing at different tracks/circuits to determine a form cycle is IMO useless (however, on the same circuit/track, it's a very helpful handicapping tool - thanks to Dave Liftin!) As I've said before, I often use BSFs otherwise almost as a contrarian investor would buy stocks! When I feel there is a reason for a "false Beyer" (that will hopefully not be picked up by the average horseplayer), I will consider that wager an overlay.
I guess the crux of part of my recent irritation stems from the use of Beyer PARs in the first place - unless you have evidence that a track plays much faster/slower than another, why should a certain group of horses ("the circuit") have a higher PAR. IMO, there is an bias toward the big circuits when you look at these PARs and particularly the New York circuit. The best horses and jockeys in general tend to race at the big circuits (the purses are bigger and the races are prestigious), but a "rising tide doesn't lift all ships" in horse racing. For example, many horses look great Beyer-wise finishing 2nd-5th on the NY circuit - when they ship to another track (often as a prohibitive favorite for a stakes race because of a high Beyer), they are often a bet-against - one recent example that comes to mind is Grasshopper in the SuperDerby.
As you said, there is always going to be an inter-track (between track) BSF discrepancy depending on the track umpire. BTW, does DRF or Beyer actually ever admit to any lack of interrelator reliability in the explanation or advertising of the figures? Here is the DRF 'take' on Beyers:
http://www.drf.com/products/beyers/beyers.html
To me, most regrettably, this inter-track BSF discrepancy worsens to a much greater degree when the status quo changes (in this case, the introduction of KEE and DMR poly.) Suddenly these supposed "surface/track/condition/distance interchangable figures" of horse performance are in fact not even close to being interchangable...it goes beyond any bias from one "Beyer track umpire" to another.
I was only half joking when I said that the KEE/DMR-poly BSF discrepancy would never be allowed to happen if the track was BEL or SAR - BSFs would have been "fixed"/upwardly adjusted by now - after all, NY racing reputation is at stake!!
That DRF continues to deny any issue with the reliability/interchangeability of the poly BSFs IMO unfortunately does not speak well for their organizational reputation! What....do these horses get "bad" when they go to these POLY tracks and then suddenly get "good" again when they return to another surface? Is it a miracle before our eyes? I was mostly an administrator before I retired - I always felt my most important contribution besides my program leadership & direction was how I handled mistakes/problems. At least admit there is a problem with BSFs and try to fix it....or admit that BSFs are just not interchangeable for races on synthetic surfaces! DO SOMETHING! The average horseplayer isn't stupid! It's been two years since TP first installed poly and now a year anniversary since the dramatic changes we saw at KEE...
Posted by: Alan on October 04, 2007 at 07:31 PM
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Dan,
Have not seen a work for Irridescence for two months. Is she hurt or off globetrotting?
Posted by: Steve T on October 04, 2007 at 09:06 PM
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Will be away for much of the weekend playing 'Moving Company' (if you see some geeky guy standing next to a disabled Penske rental truck on the Jersey Turnpike yelling about Beyer Speed Figures, it's probably me!), so here are my stakes picks, starting with some of my KEE contest selections:
OCT5KEE8 Sycamore-G3 (12F T 3up): #7 Big Prairie (ML:7/2) -> nice finish in last year's race, just missed at 22/1 in the BBaruch last out at the Spa, 3rd start off a layoff...but will need to hope for at least some pace in the race. Interesting longshot is #1 Holding Court, winner of multiple stakes races in India. (WP #7)
OCT5 KEE9 Alcibiad-G1 (8.5F 2yofil): #2 Dreaming Of Liz (ML:6/1) -> "Speed Dies over KEE Poly"...but my pick is the "speed of the speed" - if allowed to get the lead easily, she may never look back. #9 Grace Anatomy will be flying at the end, and as I noted the other night, has a winning pedigree as well. (WP #3; EXBX #3,#9)
OCT6KEE5 TCA-G3 (6F 3upF&M): #9 Mary Delaney (ML:5/1) -> the only horse that I can remember TWICE wiring the field over the KEE poly (she's 2-2-0-0 on the track), although dull recent effort in her return off layoff on the PID Tapeta. Bullet 4F work at TP last week says "I'm back!" If speed duel develops however, #6 Wild Gams will pick up all the pieces. (WP #9)
OCT6KEE6 Phoenix-G4 (6F 3up): #3 Connections (ML:9/2) -> nice 3rd place PID effort 1st-off layoff last month, showed affinity for KEE poly in win last spring. Considering all I've said bad about this race, THIS CLOSER COULD ACTUALLY BE AN INTERESTING LONGSHOT with all the speed in the BC Sprint! (WP #3)
OCT6KEE7 FstLdy-G2 (8F T 3ypF&M): #5 Vacare (ML:3/1) -> Not the greatest of trips in the BlstSpa, should be right on the tail of Precious Kitten and has the late kick to hold off Lady Of Venice. #1 Ermine (ML:15/1) is an interesting longshot - Ronny Werner is 27% 1st turfer! (WP #5)
OCT6KEE8 BrdrsFut-G1 (8.5F 2yo): #5 Briarwood Circle (ML:10/1) -> only loss (3-2-1-0) was to Prussian in the G3 Summer on the WO turf last month - and he was closing in the stretch. Will Smart Strike sire more G1 stake winners this weekend? (WP #5)
...BTW, two horses in the Futurity have ELP P4 connections - #9 Old Man Buck lost by a diminishing 1/2 length in his 1st turf effort (I would have lost the P4 anyway in the last leg) and #4 Gold Train beat my "crazy longshot pick" Mythical Hunter in the last race of the entire ELP meeting - both of these entries are likely over-their-head in this race, but should still be considered underneath in any exotics. #12 Wicked Style beat my BCJuvie/KyDerby "futurespick" Sebastian County in the ArlWashFut (BTW, SebastCnty is not injured - he's just taking the rest of the year off to get ready for the TripleCrown push next year) - unfortunately, the outside KEE post likely limits any potential for success today...
OCT6KEE9 ShdwlTfM-G1 (8F T 3up): #4 Astonomer Royal (ML:5/1) -> I may regret not betting on Alan Garcia and #9 Shakis (especially in a race named after the horse's owner!), but this 3yo EURO shipper, the son of Danzig for Aidan O'Brien, won the G1 FRCH 2000gns in May impressively - watch this video, especially the last 300-400m of the race:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8030103839373030235
Anything close to a return to this effort should win. (WP #4)
OCT7KEE Spinster-G1 (9F 3yoF&M): pp2 Panty Raid -> loves POLY and loves 9F distance. Ignore the other obvious favs and also play pp10 Altesse underneath - she's a live longshot who barely lost to Pool Land last out (WP pp2; EXBX pp2,pp10)
Also some "Quick Weekend Picks" - I won't have time to play any of these myself, so put an extra $2 on 'em for me (HEY....but don't bill me if they lose!):
MedCupH: #2 Utopia (ML:3/1) -> next stop MTH...
IndOaks: #8 Marietta (ML:7/2) -> remains "undertheradar", but for how long?
IndnaDby: #5 Flashstorm (ML:8/1) -> "MoreThanReady" to win from the front.
Frizette: pp8 Armonk -> breaks her maiden in a G1 stakes?
Champagn: pp1 Majestic Warrior -> just warming up for CD next May.
JamaicaH: pp7 Adagio -> THIS IS A GREAT RACE - lots of good 3yos!! EURO class (fav in ENG 2000gns) missed 1st US start due to travel delays...
LdyScrtH: pp3 Fun Logic-> wishes race was run on DMR poly...
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND!!
Posted by: Alan on October 04, 2007 at 10:07 PM
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So many interesting threads brought up here.. as far as the 'Win and You're In ' goes, I can't understand why they've chosen races that have served as BC preps anyway. Can anyone think of any winners of these races in years past that were excluded from running? What happens to those berths when the winners opt not to run? (Jambalaya, for instance)
As far as the added BC races, I feel exactly the opposite to what C stated. Given how many races are run at 6 furlongs in this country, I think a second sprint makes sense ( even though fillies have had a pretty good ITM % in the Sprint, not all the best sprinting fillies have attempted it) And as far as the dirt mile race, I think that American breeding in general has been so geared toward winning at 8-9 furlongs, that a dirt Mile is perhaps better feedback on breeding success than the Classic.
I guess I just don't think that the winners of the BC races are the definitive best horses on the year. They're just the best (and luckiest) on that day. Sometimes they've had notable years, some times not(Arcangues, Volponi anyone?)
I think that this crop of 3 year olds is exceptional but if any of them don't make the Classic, does that make their performances any less stunning? Are they no longer to be considered for 3-yr old honors?
My observation of SA cushion track is that it seems very fair, although the times are ridiculously fast, no running style is de facto eliminated, except for deep closers.
Posted by: nancyb on October 04, 2007 at 10:22 PM
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Market Movers courtesy of www.eurohorse.co.uk
Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe - Sunday October 7, 2007
AUTHORIZED continues to shorten and is now being found at "even money" at some firms. SOLDIER of FORTUNE has been on the drift since early Thursday and can actually be found as high as 4/1. ZAMPESI SUN remains steady at 9/2, while the markets saw DYLAN THOMAS drift up as high as 8/1 in places as the rains fell, has now shortened again to 6/1 as the rain has stopped and the ground is drying steadily.
Current generally available industry odds in Ireland and the U.K. (Friday):
Authorized 5/4, Soldier Of Fortune 7/2, Zampezi Sun 9/2, Dylan Thomas 6/1, Mandesha 12/1, Saddex 20/1, Sagara 25/1, Getaway 33/1
Breeders' Cup Classic 2007: (Top Ten Runners)
Lawyer Ron 5/1 (from 3/1, then 4/1), Curlin 5/1 (from 7/1, then 4/1), Any Given Saturday 5/1 (from 9/2), Street Sense 5/1, Hard Spun 10/1 (from 12/1), George Washington 16/1, Asiatic Boy 16/1, Tiago 16/1, Student Council 20/1, Awesome Gem 20/1
Posted by: E/L on October 05, 2007 at 12:55 AM
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In the October 8th issue of Business Week the cover story is about "The Power 100" The most influential people in the business of sports.
I find it disconcerting that not one person on the list is from the (Horse) Racing industry.
Does that mean (to Business Week) that racing is not a sport or that there are no important personages extent?
What do you think?
richard a
Posted by: richard a on October 05, 2007 at 01:39 AM
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Does anyone know if the connections for Kip Deville will enter him in BC Turf? I think its about $300K but he's had a solid year and on a level playing field should have won last.
Jack
Posted by: Jack Hipp on October 05, 2007 at 08:24 AM
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hi dan
sorry i missed it first time around but could you please post congaree's lifetime past perf. again....the was one of my all time favorites...
please advise
thanks
larry b
Posted by: larry b on October 05, 2007 at 09:33 AM
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Curlin:
If.......... "he's not one in a million; he's one in a jillion". -Allen Jerkens
quarters- 24+,23+,23+,24+, and 24+.
Curlin:
NTRA Ranking #1 - 143 pts.
Taigo ranked #9 just above an out of training horse - 22 pts.
Nashoba's Key ranked #6 above Tiago Nashoba's Key ...a girl.
Curlin's loss to RTR will be fully explained by me in the near future.
A win bet on Lawyer Ron in the classic is wasted $. Pletcher says he is going to work with LR on his rating ability. LR is almost 5 years old. That's like a 15 year old repeating the 8th grade.. ..again.
Thanks/ chicago gerry
Posted by: chicago gerry on October 05, 2007 at 10:41 AM
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Mike,
Yes - I won on Garcia as well yesterday in BEL9! I thought I was also going to win with the FTS in BEL5, but he faded to 4th (when Garcia rides a horse > 5/1, I routinely bet WPS - I was counting my $$$ too early!) He finished last in BEL4 on another FTS at ~40/1 (horse actually looked good the 1st 1/2 of the race, then faded - bet next out CALLING MY COLORS...) Watch out for combo of Garcia/Robert Barbara - besides winning BEL9 yesterday at ~18/1, they came in 2nd the day before (in BEL3) on a ~14/1 shot.
I am 'elsimone' for the keeneland contest - at least I think I am...that's what I've been before! I had to put my picks in early since I'll be away from the computer until Sunday AM (I had to accept the scratches->favorites rule which I hate for these contests...) I also don't know how I will put in my OSA Showvivor pick for tomorrow (only 639 out of ~6700 left in just one week?) - 0h well...
Posted by: Alan on October 05, 2007 at 11:06 AM
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Am I correct that Allen Jerkens has never won a BC race or a triple crown race? I recall hearing about his BC record when he entered Bowman's Band in the Classic a few years back.
Posted by: DManCPR on October 05, 2007 at 11:17 AM
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Keeneland 9th Alcibiades Stakes
I like #2 Dreaming of Liz for the win. At 15-1 morning line, #3 Morakami looks good. Morakami has the pedigree to get the job done and if she can figure out how to put everything together, she could offer a good price.
Win #2. W/P #3. Exacta box 2-3.
Posted by: Calvin Carter on October 05, 2007 at 01:41 PM
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I dislike the top two favorites in the Lanes end Futurity, (Roundhouse and Slew's Tiznow) Take a look at a couple interesting longshots. Briarwood Circle (ml/10-1) and Adriano (ml/15-1), both coming off the turf last race. Brianwood Circle finished a close 2nd to PRussian last out and Adriano had trouble in the stretch and still won MSW at Saratoga by 3. The Keeneland card tomorrow looks outstanding.
Posted by: Bettis 36 on October 05, 2007 at 03:15 PM
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Meadowlands Cup:
In a race already loaded with sprint type speed (Praying for Cash, Awfully Smart), Dutrow enters the rabbit Mr. Umphrey to try and set it up Diamond Stripes. It would be interesting to study "rabbit" races and see how often the class horse of the two actually wins. With no data except my recall, it seems to me that the rabbit usually ends up setting up a dream trip for a midpack closer, and the rabbit's stablemate has to settle for the show or something. That's exactly what happened when Dutrow used these two in the Foster.
I like Xchanger (8-1 ML, should go off at about 5-1)in this race. His last (second by a neck in the PA Derby after a wide trip) was probably his career best and showed a new dimension of the horse in that he was taken a few lengths off the early pace and displayed a good closing kick. Diamond Stripes looks to be strongly favored off his two show finishes in the Woodward and Whitney, but I think that Xchanger will get first run on him and hold him off. Utopia may beat me but I just dislike using a 7 year old horse off a 5 month layoff and I have learned to be very sceptical of Belmont form regardless. I'll box Magna Graduate with Xchanger in the exacta, he is virtually guaranteed to be last a half mile out but he can easily circle this field if they go fast enough up front.
Meadowlands Honey Bee Handicap:
I like Leap in the Sun (#3), her race two weeks ago at the Big M was excellent and though this represents somewhat of a class jump, race seems to set up perfectly for her in a field stacked with several apparent need the lead types. Trainer Plesa (38%) and Jockey Lezcano (21%) are smoking at this meet and that never hurts. She should be good value at 5-1 or so.
Meadowlands Eillo:
Using NJ-bred win machine Joey P., invader Bubba Gum for Scott Lake and longshot Bound Notebook for Stanley Hough in ex/tri boxes. Bound Notebook (8/1 ML) in particular appears to offer value with a run from a few lengths off the pace.
Posted by: James Mc. on October 05, 2007 at 03:59 PM
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Check out the #3 horse in the 7th at Keeneland, his name is Quasicobra. Any guess who the trainer is??? You can't make this stuff up.
Posted by: Steve T on October 05, 2007 at 04:21 PM
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Gerry,
Curlin's narrow defeat in the Belmont was no shame. There's probably no need to make an excuse for him. Pletcher entered Rags to Riches because he felt that her appreciation of the distance would override a male/female disadvantage, if any. It turned out to be a good decision. I agree with you about Lawyer Ron, although I'd warn that he only needs to put it together 1 time. He's probably not the greatest bet at a short price, but I have to admit that I haven't fully decided what to do with him in multirace wagers yet.
Nancy,
Nice post, but don't mess with Volponi. He and Domedriver made my Cup day that year. Come on, he wasn't THAT bad.
Alan,
I'm with you, although I'd disagree about the idea that DRF's or Beyer's integrity is (or should be) on the line. Whenever diving into a game like racing, it's the player's duty to know the accuracy/limitations of the available info. The only thing we should be able to safely assume is that the chart info (times, running order, so on) and horse info (trainer, sire, dam, etc) are correct. BSFs are a little different because they're not directly related to the horse or the race itself... they're a rating computed after the fact. To me, holding Beyer personally responsible is more like blaming a tip-sheet handicapper. It's up to the player to know what they're dealing with.
Steve,
Let's invent a Beyer patch. I envision a big "B"... and instead of putting it on your arm or shoulder, you slap it right on your forehead. An instant moneymaker for sure, not to mention a fashion statement!
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Does anyone else think Biancone got off too light with a 1-year suspension? I was thinking more like 5 or 10. If it were up to me, he'd get life. One year just doesn't send a strong enough message. And he'll appeal too to delay his suspension until after the Cup... why didn't they hammer him earlier? and harder?
Posted by: C on October 05, 2007 at 05:01 PM
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DmanCPR,
You may be correct sir about Jerken's BC record. I don't know really. But if we do that, let's also look into whether or not Allen Jerkens has ever won a big time race. And also, let's look into the BC records of some of the current trainers going into the BC.
In general, the reason for the Jerken's quote was that I thought he might know a few things about horses. I figured he is a respected horseman. Perhaps he is not.
Thanks/ chicago gerry
Posted by: chicago gerry on October 05, 2007 at 05:10 PM
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I guess I know no why leaving Country Star out of the Alcibides made me nervous. Crap!
Posted by: Steve T on October 05, 2007 at 05:24 PM
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C,
I agree with you on Biancone, if that isn't a lifetime ban, I don't know what is - it was a Class A drug, not "well we administered Clenbuterol a little late". It was to cheat, no ifs, ands or buts. And not exactly his first offense.
Posted by: Steve T on October 05, 2007 at 07:11 PM
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C. what a great idea for the "B" patch, which I would thought of it! BSF have been something that I have paid little attention to for the bettor part of two years. I do look for consecutive improving, or decling numbers. Especially when they occured on the same track.
Where I think we will all find the money bonanza is with the trainers. The good trainers will figure the new surfaces out way before any handicappers will. Trns. win % on the Synth. is something we should all be paying attention to. While this could be a pretty strong angle it, won't last long with the information world we live in today.
Also C. I agree with you. Biacone should have at least received a 5 yr suspension, if not life. I think its high time for some sport to stand up and, have a zero tolerance for cheating and breaking the law. I'm not sure Biacone broke a law but, his involvement with cobra venom in any way is a serious black eye for our sport, which by the way has enough integrity issues without something like cobra venom being used on amimals to enhance their performance.
We don't need to be giving the idiots @ PETA any ammunition as they manufacture enought on their own.
No picks for this weekend as I am very busy trying to get my Bar B Que restaurant opening in order. I really like a couple of P-4's this weekend. If I get to study I'll post my losing selections.
Good Luck to All.
Posted by: johnny z on October 05, 2007 at 09:18 PM
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Belmont – 10/06/2007
Race 1 – Gone Prospecting, Love Lyndsey, Nine Positives
Race 2 – Treasure Mountain, Stormy Success, Belz
Race 3 – Cliff Meadows, Romp, Broadway Bud
Race 4 – Tight Grip, Merchant Marine, Comprise
Race 5 – Grand Minstrel, Golden Weekend, Hepcat
Race 6 – Moral Compass, Wotan, Windication
Race 7 – War Pass, Majestic Warrior, Lantana Mob
Race 8 – Sunday Holiday, A Little Gem, Indian Blessing
Race 9 – Red Giant, Shamdinan, Nobiz Like Showbiz
Race 10 – Highly Spoken, Back to Mandaly, Stately Pegasus
Posted by: Steve T on October 05, 2007 at 09:32 PM
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i think the dispersal of his stable is extremely damaging. it gives his owners, whether they know or didn't know a chance to distance themselves from him. it is quite damaging if you look at the whole picture, especially if the new trainer does well! if anything the vet bill goes down!
Posted by: jim on October 05, 2007 at 11:05 PM
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Speaking of sidelined, the Champagne got me thinking about last year's Champagne.
Any word on Pegasus Wind, who showed last year? I found an item about an ankle injury keeping him from the Southwest Derby but that was it. Thx!
Posted by: dana on October 06, 2007 at 06:59 PM
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Dan,
Thanks for maintaining the disabled horse report. It may be interesting to add the type of surface on which the injury was sustained. This will provide your readers some anecdotal evidence of the relative safety of dirt vs. other surfaces.
Thanks.
Posted by: Bob Cordaro on October 08, 2007 at 10:04 PM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 