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FormBlog | October 02, 2007
Smart Strike, lead changes, Euros
How about the past performances for sire of the day-Smart Strike-three Grade 1 winners at 6 panels sprinting, 12 panels on turf and 10 panels on dirt. Strong.
Andrew Carpenter
Here are the past performances for Smart Strike. He put up some big numbers during his career.
Download smart_strike.PDF
If ever a horse was bred to be a successful stallion, it is Smart Strike. By the great Mr. Prospector out of Canadian champion Classy 'n Smart, Smart Strike is a half-brother to the fantastic Dance Smartly. Not only did three of his sons (Fabulous Strike, English Channel, and Curlin) win Grade 1 races at Belmont on Sunday, but a daughter (Smarty Deb) won the Gottstein Futurity at Emerald on Saturday. He 'nicks' especially well with mares by Deputy Minister, Wild Again, Danzig, Nijinsky II, Pleasant Colony, and Regal Classic.
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I also forgot to post the "Big Beyer" performers of the week. Here they are:
Dan,
I was wondering if you could explain the body mechanics of a horse in flight. Specifically, occasionally one will see a still photo of a horse while air borne. Assuming the right front leg is #1, left front leg is #2, the right rear leg is #3 and the left rear leg is #4. What happens at the landing and what will happen as the horse keeps on running in terms of his stride? I was wondering if both the rear legs landed at the same time and is it a push pull type of action with the front legs. Also, could you explain what to look for to determine just when a horse changes leads. I can honestly tell you that I have never been able to see this.
chicago gerry
chicago gerry, this article discusses a horse's gait, and the mechanics behind it. Take a peek...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horse_gait
In discussing lead changes, it probably would be best to have some visual aids as well. Let's watch Curlin in the Preakness:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Sjt4SiRatB0
Let's pick up the action at 1:23 in. The field is on the turn, and getting ready to swing into the stretch. Hard Spun is on the lead. Watch his front legs at the 1:36 and 1:37 mark. It looks like he's sort of lurching instead of running, right? It's a bit awkward. At this point, Hard Spun is racing on his wrong (left) lead. At the 1:39 mark, you'll notice that Hard Spun isn't lurching. He's running more smoothly. He has changed to his correct (right) lead. At this point, of the four horses in the first flight, three are racing on their right leads. The only one still hopping on his left lead is Curlin. At the 1:45 mark, you'll notice Robby Albarado shift his weight aboard Curlin, and Curlin then changes to his correct lead. Now, rewind the tape back to 1:23, and start again. It takes Curlin about seventeen strides once he turns into the stretch before he switches leads.
Here's another example:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=d2sjDivffYE
Fast forward to the 2:10 mark of the 1978 Belmont Stakes. At this point, Affirmed (on the rail), has switched leads, and is racing on his right lead. Alydar, on the outside, never switches. You'll notice the difference in strides. You have to wonder what would have happened if Alydar received the energy boost from switching leads.
An example of a horse that didn't change leads in the stretch is Ruffian in the 1975 Mother Goose:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=P2qfLJYcq5s
Now, watch Holy Bull switch leads in the bat of an eye in the 1994 Florida Derby. When the field hits the quarter-pole, watch, him quickly change over to his correct lead.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=8OJwB5IHlV0
It will take some practice, but after carefully watching the races, you'll notice when a horse switches leads. I'd describe it as a little hop from one leg to the other.
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Dan,
What is the deal with Asiatic Boy? I have not seen or heard anything since Dubai. Is this another Discreet Cat? Is he coming over for the BC? Have you heard any names of horses that the Europeans are throwing at us? Is GW hurt or is he coming to the party too? Sorry over my question limit...
Steve T
Asiatic Boy disappointed twice on turf in Europe after his big Dubai win. He finished fourth behind Ramonti in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes on August 1 at Goodwood, and then ran fifth behind Authorized in the Group 1 Juddmonte International at York on August 21. He's a possibility for the Breeders' Cup Classic, and is trading at 16-1 or so in Europe for that race.
European horses leaning to the BC Turf are likely to run in this weekend's Arc de Triomphe. Keep an eye out for Authorized (Epsom Derby, Juddmonte International), Soldier of Fortune (Irish Derby), and Dylan Thomas (Prix Ganay, King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Irish Champion Stakes). Ramonti (Queen Elizabeth II, Queen Anne, Sussex) and George Washington are questionable for the Mile, but Excellent Art (St. James's Palace) would likely contend there if he goes. Duke of Marmalade may step back up in trip for the Turf.
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Dan,
I read several places that Curlin really responded well to training at Oklahoma and loved training on that surface. This was proved by his great race in the JCGC. Why mess with what works, and now ship him to Keeneland?
Greg
I'm sure that Asmussen wants to keep the first sting together instead of racking up the frequent-flyer miles going back and forth to NY. Also, Curlin has trained very well at Keeneland in the past. He prepped for the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby at Keeneland.
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5. Here’s one I can’t answer, because I don’t have the data – but someone does. How many 100+ Beyers were awarded at Saratoga for dirt races? How many at Del Mar? Based on my casual analysis the answer is something like 35 to 0 (somebody prove me wrong – that would be OVERWHELMING evidence of a bias)
Steve T
There were 51 Beyers of 100 or more earned in dirt races at Saratoga. There were 7 Beyers of 100 or more earned in dirt races at Del Mar.
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I don't know if he's planning on invading or not, but I am really intrigued by a euro named Lucarno. He's only three, but looks like he gets better every time he runs - and check out the wacky race pattern for this one - Pletcher would have a panic attack looking at this horse's form: in a FOUR week stint earlier this year, he won a listed stakes, got 4th in the (G1)Epsom Derby, and got 2nd in the (G2)King Edward VII.
Joe
The word on the street is that Lucarno is done for the year, but will return in 2008 to contest the big Group 1 races between 12-14 furlongs.
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...River Edge Farms have bred Tranquility Lake (1/2 to Benchmark) to Storm Cat three straight years - After Market in 2003, Jalil in 2004, and Inflection Point in 2005 (can't find out if any for 2006/7).
Steve T
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Tranquility Lake has a yearling and a weanling colt by Storm Cat.
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Who knows whats up with Harlington and Law breaker?Harlington has a ton of talent when Healthy and Law Breaker was as gutsy as they come in his races.
Hillbilly
Harlington injured his foot prepping for the Suburban on July 4, and hasn't been seen since. Law Breaker recently worked a bullet six furlongs at Oak Tree, and seems to be nearing a race.
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Since they're not available anywhere else - and since I'm sure others enjoy reviewing them and reliving them as well - would it be possible to post the following PP's as well?
King Glorious
Phone Trick
Java Gold
Candy Ride
Quiet American
Bet Twice
Lost Code
Skywalker
Will's Way
Nashwan
Lite Light
Goodbye Halo
Charon
Very Subtle
Thank you so much!
Pat
It's a mile race on the dirt. Who wins?
Back tomorrow with the updated DL.
Take care,
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on October 2, 2007 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
SUFFOLK DOWNS hosts A QUALITY, Inexpensive
DRF/NTRA QUALIFYING TOURNAMENT - SATURDAY,OCT.20th
Join me @ Suffolk Downs for the second of two qualifying tournaments for the Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship to be held January 25-26, 2008 at Red Rock Casino, Resort and Spa in Las Vegas, NV.
The top finisher in this tournament will qualify for the National Championship.
In addition to the qualifying spot, cash prizes will be awarded to the top ten finishers. All money received in entry fees will be returned to these prize winners. Additional prizes will be provided courtesy of Brisnet.
The entry fee is $60,& includes a Daily Racing Form,a simulcast program,& lunch (12:30-2:30pm). All entrants will also receive a door prize courtesy of Brisnet.
The tournament will consist of 15 pre-selected races.
Players will be required to make a mythical $2 Win AND Place wager on one horse in each race. The order of finish for the tournament will be determined by the mythical bankrolls amassed by each player based on their 15 wagers. All selections must be turned in prior to the first race of the tournament. For this reason, there is no cap on prices. Registration will begin at 11 a.m. in the Topsider Room. The first race of the tournament will be at approximately 3 p.m. and the final race will be at around 6 p.m.
To reserve a spot in the tournament, send an e-mail thru www.suffolkdowns.com (News & Notes).Tell'Em BombsAwayBob sent'Ya! The tournament will be limited to 300 players. Limit one entry per person.
I went to the first contest in August,& Suffolk did a great job! Nice room, FREE Coffee & Ice Water, Salad w/ Pasta; & Brownies & Cookies for snackin' after lunch. EASY IN & OUT via The Mass Pike from Anywhere! See You There!- Good Luck & Bombs Away,Bob
Posted by: BombsAway Bob Grant on October 02, 2007 at 05:53 PM
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Re: The recent comments about the Arc, I like to use the Betfair odds as an approximate gauge of the likely post-time numbers.
Currently, Authorized 3/2, Soldier of Fortune 4-1, Zambezi Sun 6-1, Dylan Thomas 8-1, Mandesha 14-1. Personally I think Authorized will get heavily pounded as the race gets closer.
BTW, my local OTB is carrying advance wagering for the Arc on Saturday, but they are not opening early Sunday to show it as they usually do.
I just checked TVG site and they don't have their usual banner trumpeting that they will show it. They don't have Sunday's schedule posted yet either. I think it is going to be on HRTV but that is unavailable to many of us. Does anyone know if it will be on TVG or will we at least get the replay on ESPN Sunday afternoon or something?
Posted by: James Mc. on October 02, 2007 at 06:00 PM
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While once again pondering the Classic, I couldn't help thinking about the early retirement program in place for Thoroughbreds (I'd like it much better if it were for humans). All this talk about whether Layer Ron can handle 10 panels, is good enough to beat the 3 YO's, blah blah blah, got me thinking about this - how good could Bernardini have been this year!? He absolutely demolished the other top 3 YO's last year, including beating Lawyer Ron by roughly 16 lengths (by my count) in the Classic. Just another shame amongst many that we couldn't see race as a 4 YO.
Posted by: TC on October 02, 2007 at 06:49 PM
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Dan,Thanks for the great tutorial on lead changes. My question is this, in route races, do horses change leads other than in the stretch run?
Posted by: Mike Romeo on October 02, 2007 at 08:35 PM
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dan,
hey thanks for fueling the curlin flames for me. im forever branded as a curlin fan.anyway-what happened to iron horse tuefelsburg. think he makes one of these races like the sprint or mile??
Posted by: jim on October 02, 2007 at 10:05 PM
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I don't know who wins at a mile, but didn't realize how freaky fast phone trick was and was underfeated until his last race verses groovy, baby.
That 132'4 Quiet American ran, probably would take it.
Posted by: Andrew Carpenter on October 02, 2007 at 10:48 PM
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Dan,
Thanks for the gait/lead explanation and videos. I love the galloping horse in the Wikipedia article! Can I bet on him??
Looking at Friday's KEE card and the G1-Alcibiades (KEE9) is a great race this year. I don't have the ML odds yet, but the likely fav will be Irish Smoke off her win in the Spinaway. I'm however interested in two other fillies:
Dreaming of Liz -> won ArlWash Lassie for Calabrese/Catalano; by ElPrado out of Silver Maiden (Silver Maiden also won the Lassie as well as the Frizette, was 6-5-0-0 overall). If she gets loose on the lead, she'll be hard to catch
...AND...
Grace Anatomy -> broke her maiden at DMR in 2nd attempt for Doug O'Neill (and HOFer Mike Smith, jockey of the winner of the upcoming BC Classic), by Aldebaran out of the Storm Cat mare Propriety - 1st foal to race, but excellent tail-female pedigree (2nd dam Plenty of Grace won Yellow Ribbon, QEII Challenge Cup, NY Handicap + Diana; Her HS Bonnie Byerly's 1st foal to race was Diabolical....), should be flying at the end - hopefully there will be enough pace to close into...
Posted by: Alan on October 02, 2007 at 11:03 PM
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Hey Dan. Do you think a case can be made for Nashoba's Key being HOY assuming she wins a BC race? I posted this on some other website, but they all laughed at the idea of a west coast filly winning on the east. It would be 3 G1s and 2 G2s if she won.
Posted by: RJ on October 02, 2007 at 11:12 PM
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Dan:
If it is a one-turn mile, then Will's Way has to win this. If it is a two-turn race, then I'll side with Candy Ride.
VS
Posted by: Van Savant on October 02, 2007 at 11:13 PM
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Dan,
Unless I missed it don't remember you posting any thoughts on The Roundhouse (Fusaichi Pegasus). To me he has the glamour pedigree of all the hyped 2 yr olds. His dam Circle Of Life has Alydar 2 back and, he has Danzig on top and, bottom. I see the RH getting better as the distances get longer; your thoughts?
I have to call foul on myself, just watching the Goodwin S. I didn't see how good of a race Tiago had ran. I reviewed all of the weekend races tonight and, went over the charts. Tiago may have been the most impressive when you consider all the variables. The equibase chart shows his final 1/8 in 12.52 but, according to my watch he came home in just over :12. Either way being his first against older horses I was impressed.
First of all I don't care who the Euro's send over the winner of the B.C. Classic will be Any Given Saturday, Curlin, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron, or Street Sense. If I had to throw a long shot in it would be Awesome Gem who finished 2nd to Tiago, as his effort was good and, he always puts a good effort in.
As I see the Classic Larry Jones will instruct M Pino to have HS do his best imitation of Ghost Zapper. What do they have to lose being HS last race and, I have to mention I feel that is the only was HS wins. Lawyer may very well go with him, especially after reading T. Pletchers insights on the JGCP this weekend. If LR does I think he gets cooked. If LR can relax and, lay off the pace he has a good chance to win. I don't think he will, as that is why after tonights study Tiago if he gets a good trip he nips them all at the wire. Will I bet that way? At this time I don't know, that is just how I see the race playing out. One other item of interest is I have stated more than once that we haven't seen HS best, well I don't think we have seen Tiago's best as he is really an improving colt.
The real unknown is Curlin. His accomplishments this year have to go down somewhere in horse racing history. Even though the JCGC was tough Curlin has not ran near as many races this year as some of the others and, he had an 8 week lay-off, which I think even makes his performance this past weekend more impressive.
I haven't mentioned Street Sense. I know my ears will burn from some of you but, this race just doesn't sit up right for him. I feel we have seen his best and, as stated above HS, & Tiago are still on the rise. If SS gets the perfect post, the perfect trip he could win. As a gambling person I don't see that happening as he has already had that good fortune twice. Also this will be ran @ Monmouth not C.D.
One last thought, this will be a tough race with all the talent. My feeling from a toughness stand point Hard Spun stands alone. He has won at all distances, on different surfaces (still would love to see him on the turf), and the sheer guts and, the fractions HS turned in during the Kings Bishop has to be considerd, especially when the heat and, humidity that day was brutal.
One last thought on these, AGS last was not awe inspiring but, that could really work to his advantage as the rest of these were pushed in their last. This may seem like double talk but, if AGS runs like he did in the Haskell and, handles 10F he may be the winner? Tough race to call but, what fun!
Speaking of tough races, the Distaff is (IMO) may very well be the most competitive race we have seen in recent memory.
Good Luck to All Tomorrow.
Posted by: johnny z on October 02, 2007 at 11:40 PM
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Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, in the case of the People vs. Andrew Beyer in the matter of BSF bias against west coast tracks:
The accepted definition of the word bias is: "a particular tendency or inclination, esp. one that prevents unprejudiced consideration of a question; prejudice."
I submit to you the following in evidence of the obvious bias of the Beyer Speed Figures towards the tracks of Saratoga, Belmont, Monmouth and Delaware and against those located on the west coast:
Prosecution Exhibit "A"
That of the 183 dirt races run at Saratoga during the 2007 season, some 51 of the runners in those races received a BSF of 100 or greater.
Prosecution Exhibit "B"
That during the 2007 season at Del Mar during which 280 races were run on Polytrack, that only 7 runners received a BSF of 100 or greater.
183 races and 51 BSF's of 100+. A ratio of 51:183
280 races and 7 BSF's of 100+. A ratio of 7:280
Statistical variance? Ladies and gentlemen, we are talking about a delta of over 1000%!
Mr. Beyer wrote about the lack of speed at Del Mar and how it affected horses. And that the Pacific Classic was a "farce". That may be true, but the advertised and inherent value of the Beyer Speed Figure is its portability between tracks is it not Mr. Beyer?
Prosecution Exhibit "C"
That of all of the 2 year old races in the United States and Canada, some 25 runners were assigned a BSF of 92 or higher. That of that total of 25, not one was a runner from any west coast track. Not one. Are the 2 year olds in the rest of the country 25 times better? Hard to fathom.
Prosecution Exhibit "D"
That the 31 highest BSFs assigned to turf races were under the same bias, to wit:
The only two turf BSF's on the west coast that qualified for the 31 highest turf BSF's were from Citronnade at Hollywood and again at Santa Anita. Not After Market or Crossing the Line, not Lava Man, or Nashoba's Key or any other turf runner. A ratio of 2:31. The breakout is damning:
Belmont: 10
Saratoga: 5
Churchill Downs: 3
Keeneland: 2
Calder: 2
Arlington Park: 2
Woodbine: 1
Philadelphia: 1
Gulfstream: 1
Tampa: 1
Monmouth: 1
Santa Anita: 1
Hollywood Park: 1
Del Mar: 0
Golden Gate: 0
Bay Meadows: 0
Emerald Downs: 0
Prosecution Exhibit "E"
That the bias witnessed for dirt races over one mile and for turf races is also evidenced in sprint races, to wit:
Of the 25 runners assigned a BSF of 110 or higher only the two wins by Smokey Stover at Santa Anita qualified for the top 25. A ratio of 2:25. Yet the highest sprint BSF of the year is a 124 assigned to Midnight Lute, and other 110+ were awarded to Black Seventeen, Idiot Proof and Smokey Stover - but not while running at west coast tracks.
The prosecution would like to subpoena the records of Belmont, Monmouth, Delaware, Santa Anita, and Hollywood Park to provide further evidence of ongoing bias.
The prosecution contends that the formulas used in the calculation of the Beyer Speed Figures are flawed and are not accurate as advertised for west coast tracks.
Mr. Beyer, you sell statistical data analysis, so you are obviously versed in statistics. I ask you - do these statistics appear to be logical?
Del Mar was slow, Saratoga was fast, but you would expect there to be roughly equivalent figures, but 10x??
Monmouth is a speed favoring track, I think we can all agree on that - yet the BSF's at Santa Anita on the new Cushion Track are being reduced because, well Santa Anita is a speed favoring track...
Where is the consistency? Del Mar is penalized for being slow, Santa Anita is penalized for being fast. I am expecting Goldilocks to come in and say "this one is just right" any minute now.
The whole purpose of the BSF's is to negate the track effect in the evaluation of the race is it not?
I will confidently predict that the number of horses who have run predominantly at west coast tracks will receive more 100+ BSF's in one set of races (Breeders Cup) than they did the entire season at Del Mar. That prediction is Idiot Proof...
I will leave you with this - the definition of a friend is someone who will tell you when you are messing up when everybody else is patting you on the back.
The prosecution rests.
Posted by: Steve T on October 03, 2007 at 02:44 AM
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Dan,
Do you have the past performances for Smarty Deb and do you know of any videos out there also?
Here's the only good quality video I could find:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=cm8dP8UDL7g
I also looked at the video on the Emerald Downs website but it is not the best quality.
Alan, Steve T.
Check out video on Smarty Deb and here's the chart on her last race:
She's undefeated in 4 starts and she's beat the boys twice. She could be headed to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Here's the story:
http://bc.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=41070
She has a nice pedigree and a catchy name - Smarty Deb. Hey! I've heard that name before.
Smarty??????Jones??????
One never knows where the next rags to riches story will come from and that's just one of the things that makes this game so great!
I have no idea how she'll do next out but when I see an undefeated horse I like to root for them.
Alan,
Thanks for the information on the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe.
Posted by: Calvin Carter on October 03, 2007 at 03:07 AM
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Hi Dan:
Posting those PP was a blast from the past. On a flat mile on dirt I am taking Candy Ride. He was an absolute beast. I should hope his offspring turn up as good as him.
Mark
Posted by: Mark Garcia on October 03, 2007 at 03:43 AM
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hi dan
great feature having disabled list etc....i thoought this came about from one of your readers posts and it dealt mostly with triple crown runners over the years and what a toll it takes on them...he included a list of horses such as grindstone who never had another start...but now i can't find where in your blog it was posted...please help?
thanks
larry b
Posted by: larry b on October 03, 2007 at 08:38 AM
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thanks for the great post on changing leads... i've always wondered about it.
Posted by: dana on October 03, 2007 at 09:20 AM
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Pertaining to the "Switching Leads" topic, here is an example of the other end of that spectrum, being "Not Switching Leads"
Some horses, no matter what, just can't be taught to do it. Years ago, there was a horse at Hastings Park (raced at Emerald Downs also) that was the fastest horse i had ever seen called "Knave" (Dan - if you could pull the PP's as evidence) He would go 21, 43( i think he went 42 & change at Emerald once) but tire in the stretch because of this failure to change leads. They wound up taking him to Churchill and running him in those short turf sprints because of this. Beautiful horse though!
Posted by: Brian on October 03, 2007 at 10:10 AM
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Alan, Steve T.
That link for Smarty Deb's chart was no good. Here's the correct link - I think.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/EMD092907USA8.pdf
Posted by: Calvin Carter on October 03, 2007 at 10:59 AM
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I was looking at the charts of previous winners -- http://drf.com/bc/2007/pps/winners.html
and noticed a few errors.
2003 Turf -- not entry for Johar and his dead heat with High Chapparel.
2006 -- Invasors final time for 1 1/4 miles is listed as 1:43. That's impressive.
Could you pass this info along to the intern who created this chart.
Thanks...
JP
Posted by: Joe Private on October 03, 2007 at 11:09 AM
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Great post by Steve T. It would be interesting to know where the 100+ BSF came from. DelMar ran a lot of cheap races - plenty of dime platers on the menu. Saratoga, I believe ran more stakes and certainly more graded stakes than DelMar. I would think there should be a lot more 100+ figs at the SPA. DelMar is usually just a continuation of HollyPark racing. Saratoga is still a meet that trainers all over much of the country point for. So logically there should be more 100+ figs. Steve T. you may want to compare the winter Santa Anita meet against the Saratoga meet. I guess the question for you Steve T. is..are you surprised?
Posted by: Ray Manley on October 03, 2007 at 12:17 PM
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Calvin,
If you sign up (it's free) at CalRacing.com you should be able to get all these replays. Just enter the horse's name and then you can choose from her races (although they have her races somewhat messed up - I click one race and it gives me a different replay?):
http://www.calracing.com/replays.php
Here are her race stats (from Winners' Book at Simulcast Daily):
Date Race Dist Time Beyer Odds
29Sep07 8EmD GottstnFut100k 8.5f 1:42.40 81 *0.80
2Sep07 8EmD BShinpoch80k 8f 1:36.20 74 *0.60
15Jly07 8EmD AngieC45k 6f 1:09.60 64 *1.00
13May07 2EmD Md Sp Wt 4 1/2f :51.00 63 5.60
Do you think they knew what they had back in May when she went off as 3rd choice in the wagering at >5/1? Her July15 victory after the bad start was impressive - reminded me of an RtR win earlier this year...
Her dam won ~$140K, but IMO the tail-female pedigree is not impressive. Of course, being by Smart Strike never hurts, especially lately!!!
Posted by: Alan on October 03, 2007 at 12:19 PM
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I sure enjoy the old pp's. Just the other day I was taking a trip down memory lane and how wonderfull it was when drf added fractional times. Also those are Candy Stripes pp's broodmare sire of Pacific Classic champ Candy Ride. On lead changes I don't think Alydar ever changed leads. He was a big heavily muscled horse much like Curlin and I think horses like that have a more difficult time changing leads when fatigued. And on to the Beyers :) I have long since relagated them to the Grandma's yearly visit to the track catagory along with the tip sheets sold by the front gate.
Posted by: bob on October 03, 2007 at 01:27 PM
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I think Steve T proved his case. Beyer's only hope now is the Chewbacca defense.
Posted by: DManCPR on October 03, 2007 at 01:36 PM
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Alan Garcia inner turf alert for the upcoming BEL race - when he's been aboard #4 Big Bold Place on the BEL inner turf in the past, the horse has been competitive and matches up well against the rest of this field (ML: 15/1, currently 13/1) - worth a shot...
Speaking of longshots, decided against playing the OSA P6 but have a "CRAZY LONGSHOT MAIDEN PICK" from the card - if he somehow wins, can you say "P6 carryover"?:
OSA6 (msw 8F T 2yo): #3 Lightning Gulch (NL:10/1) -> most of the intelligent money will be going towards four horses - Chanjo, Sportsbookjunkie, Southwest and FTS Left Unsaid (by Dynaformer for Frankel) - but mine will be on another FTS by HT-sire Gulch, two recent nice works at HOL, for Beau Greely and chilly-so-far-at-OSA Nakatani (but always dangerous on the turf.) Will hopefully get even higher odds by post-time - now of course, he has to also win! (WPS #3)
Good luck today!!!
Posted by: Alan on October 03, 2007 at 02:01 PM
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steve t,
You present very good arguments about the east/west bias but I agree with ray m regarding the possibility that you are over stating the bias.
SAR had about 32 stakes with over $100K purses - 11 G1.
DMR had 24 stakes with over $100K purses - 7 G1
Student Council was an east coast 50/100OC and he took down a west coast G1 - and earned his lifetime best beyer in doing on the west coast.
The BSF are not perfect all the time but beyer doesn't claim that they are...instead of a bias maybe better quality horses run at the SPA than DMR - you should consider it. Look at west coast horses coming to the east - generally speaking with no bute they run much slower BSF than they do back home.
john r
Posted by: john r on October 03, 2007 at 02:36 PM
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Dan, I have a Formulator question for you: do you know if there are plans to add synthetic surface information to the trainer form? For example, in the formulator PP for the Alicbiades this Friday, Frankle is shown as being 23% on Turf/Dirt moves..which obviously is misleading since this would be a Turf/Synthetic move. And if you go into the detailed trainer form, races over the polytrack are not designated as any different as those over the dirt. Seems like that would be an awfully useful element to add.
Posted by: Matt on October 03, 2007 at 02:38 PM
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Alan,
I agree, I wish Smarty Deb's female line was stronger. There are some positives, though.
She is out of one of my favorite bloodlines - Nearco. Her grandsire, G1 winner Wild Again, won the 1984 Breeders' Cup Classic and was 8-7-4 in 28 starts with $2,204,829 in career earnings. Wild Again also sired the 2002 Belmont winner Sarava. Her great grandsire was the Graded Stakes winning Icecapade who set a new track record at Monmouth Park, of all places, for 6 furlongs in 1:08. Icecapade was also 1/2 to the Hall of Fame filly Ruffian.
So who knows? Only time will tell how Smarty Deb does.
I like the rags-to-riches story angle, though, and, as long as she wins, I'll root for her - but that doesn't mean I won't bet on other horses. What I'm trying to say is that I hope she does well.
We need more horses to root for on the Kentucky Oaks/Triple Crown Trail.
Posted by: Calvin Carter on October 03, 2007 at 02:42 PM
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John R,
The myth is that the east coast horses come to the west and kick ass. Actually the opposite is true. If you look at the shippers, Rutherienne and Student Council performed well coming west. While The Tin Man, After Market, Midnight Lute, Smokey Stover, Black Seventeen, Idiot Proof, Hystericalady, Icy Atlantic, etc. all performed well going east.
I don't think the issue is really horses, but the tracks - horses that race out west get lower BSF's than the same horses running on east coast tracks.
As far as the stakes/handicap races, Saratoga had 37 of 100K or more. Del Mar had 35. The purse total for Saratoga was 9.2M and 8.3M for Del Mar. I think the Del Mar MSW's were higher at 53-71K as well. That is not enough of a discrepancy to justify a 10x number of high BSF's at Saratoga vs. Del Mar. And the trend is not just those two tracks - it extends to Santa Anita and Hollywood vs Belmont and Aqueduct as well.
Posted by: Steve T on October 03, 2007 at 02:55 PM
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Garcia...almost in BEL4 - but nice payout for an across-the-board bet, however.
Another Garcia angle in the next race (BEL6) although odds down to 7/1 from ML 12/1 - #4 Texas Starlet, 2 for 25 lifetime (both wins when Garcia aboard!!)
He's good even when the horse is bad....
Posted by: Alan on October 03, 2007 at 03:01 PM
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I don't think that one can say that "heavy horses have a harder time changing leads" because when you look at Dressage horses in the Olympics, about 98% of them are Warmbloods from Europe who trace back to Draft-Throughbred crosses and are hot only taller but also heavier than Thoroughbreds. These Warmbloods in the Olympics have to perform flying lead changes every stride as part of their Dressage tests (with great beauty, I might add, it looks like they're skipping.) Just because a horse is larger does not mean it takes them longer to change leads, they might just not be getting the correct cues from their rider because of the horse's size and weight.
Dreaming of Liz and Transduction Gold will win the stakes at Keeneland this friday. Also like the O'Neill filly a little bit too in the Alcibiades. Everytime he ships to Keeneland he goes on a tear so never discount Doug in KY.
Posted by: gucci or gambling on October 03, 2007 at 03:39 PM
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ALAN GARCIA IS REALLY GOOD (watch his ride on the winner in this turf msw just run, BEL6!) One win and two 2nds in 4 consecutive races on >5:1 horses! (when I have time, I'm going to check his BEL ROI for betting him across the board on any horse > 5:1.) {BTW, I made a mistake - the horse in BEL5 was 2 for 15, not 2 for 25 => bad, but not that bad!}
Calvin,
Sorry - I don't mean to discourage you at all - in fact, Smarty Deb is an interesting longshot for the JuvFillies that I never would have considered if it wasn't for you - THANK YOU!! And...because she has raced only at EmD, she'll be overlooked by many other horseplayers...
BTW, Sarava has a special place in my heart and wallet - after watching him win the Sir Barton (now called the Barbaro) on Preakness day 5 years ago, I backed him in the BEL (actually a $2 EXBX of Sarava, Medaglia d'Oro and Perfect Drift) - my best %ROI ever as my $12 wager paid >$2400!
Steve T,
West Coast horse ships and wins on the East Coast => 'won because loose on the lead'
West Coast horse ships and loses on the East Coast => 'No Bute, no win..."
Posted by: Alan on October 03, 2007 at 03:51 PM
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Sam,
BTW, I'm sorry I forgot to wish you good luck today in BEL9 - I hope you are successful with your claim!! BTW, did you know Marina Market is a ridgling?
Posted by: Alan on October 03, 2007 at 03:56 PM
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Dan,
What do you think of the new surface at Santa Anita?
Compared to the other synthetic surfaces I have watched,I thought it had played the fairest so far.Granted it has been only a week,but it already appears far superior to the plowed fields of Delmar and Keeneland.
Posted by: theraceguy on October 03, 2007 at 05:25 PM
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Must watch video - for the next time you wish you were a race caller - make sure to listen to the whole race!:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=8-CYycERZTU
Posted by: Alan on October 03, 2007 at 05:34 PM
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Lets get back to the "switching leads" topic. I have heard mention here about the process of doing so and what horses did or did not.
Here is a little insight to "why" they actually do it during the course of a race, along with "why" they truly don't.
A horse switches leads typically 3 times during a route race (someone asked this earlier). They race on their left lead from the start, on the backstretch or after a quarter/half they switch to their right lead, and during the stretch or final quarter of a mile they switch back to their left lead.
Why do they do this? Stamina and stamina alone. They use their efforts on a lead leg for an extended time then switch for fitness purposes to the other lead. (comparable to running in an oval and feeling the burn in your inside quad)
Why they don't switch leads? Physical ailment and ailment alone. Weight has nothing to do with this as Gucci mentioned above. A horse with a physical issue (depending on side, position of the issue) can have a difficulty with a specific lead. Knees, ankles, hocks, stifles you name it can create pain on specific horses lead. The switch is fully up to the horse as well, the rider cant put the leg in front of the other, therefore some horses refuse to maneuver from lead to lead based on their pain tolerance and ability to do so.
Hence why we see 90% of breakdowns occur right after a horse does switch leads.
Another interesting point, there is mention of Candy Ride in this thread. Take a look at his last race the Pacific Classic.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=-s0WSoKhlHA
Julie Krone was forever trying to get him to switch leads at the top of the stretch, which he finally did to draw off. (take note of the right "crosses" she throws at him with the reins).
Posted by: Jeff on October 04, 2007 at 11:35 PM
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Another horse that wouldn't change leads -- Prairie Bayou, who broke down in the Belmont Stakes.
Posted by: Jersey John on October 08, 2007 at 07:58 PM
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MIMS EPPI
Wanted to know if I am just seeing things or if this filly is just underated? She has never been off the board, and probably should be 4 of 4 if it wasnt for the racing gods blessing her with horrible traffic problems.
She ran out of ground when almost beating A to a Croft, who is second in the Breeders Cup stadings. Should have beat her.
She is bred awesome. Her dams side is laced with multiple graded stake winners, and she is by Cactus Ridge, which I dont think we ever saw how good he was going to be.
Please take Mims Eppi to the BC Juvenile Fillies!!!!
Posted by: Joe on October 09, 2007 at 10:18 AM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 