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FormBlog | November 19, 2007
Beyers, Monkey!!! lose the Grade 1's, more
Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last weekend's stakes races:
*Bet On Sunshine (CD): Junior College (A. Reinstedler/J. Castanon) - 104
*Stuyvesant (Aqu): Hunting (C. McGaughey III/A. Garcia) - 102
*Maria's Mon (Aqu): Roi Maudit (W. Mott/J. Velazquez) - 102
*Too Much Coffee (Hoo): Sahmmy Davis Jr. (R. Klopp/V. Lebron) - 102
*Autumn (WO): True Metropolitan (T. Jordan/J. McAleney) - 102
*Cardinal (CD): Criminologist (C. McGaughey III/J. Velazquez) - 98
*Kennedy Road (WO): Connections (M. Dini/J. Rose) - 97
*Gold Cup (DeD): Costa Rising (G. Delahoussaye/K. Clark) - 97
*All American (GG): McCann's Mojave (S. Specht/F. Alvarado) - 95
*Mariah's Storm (CD): Flying Circle (D. Fawkes/M. Aguilar) - 94
*Gaily Gaily (Aqu): Rewrite (C. Clement/A. Garcia) - 92
*Wooden Star (Haw): Byenne (D. Ackerman/D. Sukie) - 90
*Ruff/Kirchberg Memorial (Beu): Catlaunch (I. Vazquez/H. Rosario Jr.) - 88
*Lady's Secret (RP): D Fine Okie (D. Von Hemel/D. Pettinger) - 85
*Sharp Cat (Hol): Foxy Danseur (C. Paasch/M. Smith) - 85
*Frost King (WO): Stuck in Traffic (N. Gonzalez/D. Clark) - 85
*Frances Slocum (Hoo): Easy Tee (M. Reavis/E. Cosme) - 84
*No Le Hace (Ret): Man Named Sue (M. Lovell/J. Collier) - 84
*Real Quiet (Hol): Colonel John (E. Harty/C. Nakatani) - 82
*Sail On By (TuP): Rule by Force (L. Rollins/G. Corbett) - 82
*Daisy Mae (CT): Julie B (G. Yetsook/L. Reynolds) - 81
*Paradise Valley (TuP): Miller's Turbo (D. O'Neill/R. Frazier) - 81 *(Song of Pirates, 82 Beyer, dq'd and placed second)
*Stormy Frolic (Crc): Suaveness (R. Arango/R. Fuentes) - 81
*Magnolia (DeD): Zarb's Ballerina (D. Whited/M. St Julien) - 81
*All Brandy (Lrl): Dattts Awesome (M. Hennig/A. Castellano Jr.) - 80
*Glorious Song (WO): Initiation (H. Motion/J. Rose) - 79
*Creme de la Creme (DeD): Shan Jade (S. Breaux/G. Melancon) - 79
*Miss Gibson County (TuP): La Misma (M. Pearson/A. Morales) - 76
*Queen of the Green (TuP): Star of Whitney (D. Sowers/R. Eikleberry) - 75
*Calcasieu (DeD): Lee's Spirit (R. Schultz/D. Simington) - 74
*Cimarron (RP): Slick Kitty (J. Petalino/D. Pettinger) - 70
*Lassie (PM): Lady's Purse (G. Khalsa/J. Crispin) - 66
*Miss Power Puff (Haw): La Wildcat (B. Flint/T. Thornton) - 63
Here are the lifetime past performances for the "Big Beyer" stakes horse of the weekend:
Download junior_college.PDF
I see they're going to try The Green Monkey on turf in the 4th on Wednesday with Gomez up. Any chance he could run better on grass?
Annie
I don't see how he can run worse. Seriously, Forestry is a solid turf sire, and while there isn't a ton of turf in The Green Monkey's female family, he has acceptable grass breeding. It doesn't look like he's facing the greatest horses in the world on Wednesday, so he may have finally found his spot.
***
Dan,
I think there needs to be a change in the Graded stakes criteria. Here are some ideas I have on the whole mess:
1. All Grade 1 races must be for a minimum of $1M, Grade 2 races must be for a minimum of $500K and Grade 3 races for a minimum of $250K. This alone would get rid of 2/3 of them.
2. All graded stakes are set weight events without any breaks - Grade 1's carry 128, Grade 2's carry 124, and Grade 3's carry 120.
3. Bring back the N3X and N4X races, it's where most of these belong anyway.
4. Use of 4 year old and up criteria on major races to entice owners to keep their horses in training.
5. Stop changing the damned names of the races, and for god sakes drop the corporate crap "The Kentucky Derby by Yum Brands". That's like saying we're having Chateaubriand for dinner and Jello for dessert.
6. Run more 10F events, if that is indeed our classic distance, then let's see more than 3 or 4 per meet. Put a 10F race for three year olds in March or April.
What say ye? Do you agree, or am I becoming as cranky as C?
Steve T
You have some good thoughts.
1. I like the purse restrictions, but what are you going to do about the tracks that can afford (due to slots or whatever) to put up a million dollars for a race like the Delta Jackpot? Would those kind of races water down the Grade 2's for 500K? You can't stop these tracks from putting up the dollars, and trainers would still be able to pick and choose.
I think a better idea would be to restrict the amount of Grade 1's in a given year. I'd say five per division would be fair (not counting the Breeders' Cup races). The three-year-old distance runners would have the Triple Crown, the Travers, and the Swaps. Didn't get your Grade 1 necessary to make the big bucks at stud? Well, there's plenty of incentive to stay in training as there would be more chances for the older runners. Really, do we need the Triple Crown or Kentucky Oaks prep races to be Grade 1's? For that matter, is the Gamely really a Grade 1? The Prioress? The Carter? Give them their purse money, but let's make Grade 1 races be for the cream of the crop.
2. It's an interesting idea, and if there was a drastic reduction of Grade 1 races, perhaps horsemen wouldn't hold horses out because they're not getting any weight from the favorites. Of course, there would be weight-for-age, and weight-for-sex restrictions. I, myself would have them all run at 126.
3. Let's do away with the listed stakes unless they're for statebreds. Rich optional claimers and N3X, N4X allowance races could take the place of the listed races, and serve as good preps. By diluting the stakes schedule, we're restoring the quality of the graded races that are left. Grade 3 horses wouldn't just be glorified allowance runners. Grade 2 runners would be just a cut below the best. Grade 1 horses would really be special.
4. We'd give older long-distance horses more chances to get that elusive Grade 1. Races like the Donn, Big Cap, Whitney, Pacific Classic, Woodward, Goodwood, and Jockey Club Gold Cup would offer big purses, and rare chances to earn a Grade 1 victory. Sprinter/miler types could cut their teeth in the Met Mile, Cigar Mile, Ancient Title, Bing Crosby, Smile Sprint Handicap, and Forego. Weight Grade 1's according to age. Give the three-year-old dirt routers their five races. Give the older handicap horses eight or nine.
5. Perhaps if we could get a brand to link some of those handicap races while offering a big pot, everyone can win. I wouldn't mind the Yum! Brands Handicap Series where the top point-getter in a seven-race series wins $3 million.
6. I'd love to see it, but I don't think the breed can handle it right now. The bread-and-butter horses are sprinters and milers, and we need them to fill the daily races. I like the idea of sprinkling in more route races for diversity's sake, but it may take time before we get a regular schedule.
What do you guys think?
***
<i>If the Florida three-year-olds haven't distinguished themselves by the time the Holy Bull rolls around, then they're not going to contend in the Triple Crown races anyway.</i>
With all due respect Dan, the owners of Charismatic would have disagreed with you strongly.
El Angelo
Apples and oranges. The Lexington has always been a good prep for late-developing three-year-olds at a venue with only two Derby preps (Blue Grass, Lexington). Swale ran second in the inaugural Lexington in 1984. Stephan's Odyssey won it the following year. Risen Star won the 1988 Lexington. Hansel won the 1991 renewal. Touch Gold took it in 1997. Charismatic's connections took a shot, got hot, and went on a roll. While I guess it could happen in Florida, you're not going to see the best of the Florida three-year-olds in the Holy Bull. The Florida Derby winner, after racing in a Grade 1 for a million bucks, isn't going to wheel back in only two weeks at 9 1/2 furlongs in a 150K Grade 3. Ain't gonna happen. He's going to probably take the long layoff going into the Derby.
The Holy Bull will be a race full of local allowance horses, and shippers looking for the needed graded earnings to get into the Derby while avoiding synthetic surfaces. Can one of these horses win the Holy Bull, and then go on to upset the Derby? Sure, but he may need a field of Menifees and Excellent Meetings in order to do it.
***
JohnnyZ,
thanks, but maybe FriendsLake wasn't the best example, as Andrew pointed out. I didn't recall exactly what happened to him. Anyway, there are several other G1 'prep' winners who didn't do much else. At the same time, these horses retire so fast nowadays that it's hard to guess what might have been for most of them...
C
After finishing a dismal fifteenth in the Derby, Grade 1 winner Friends Lake returned three weeks later in the Peter Pan. He finished seventh, was beaten fifteen lengths by Purge, and retired to stud. Another good example of the overhyped Grade 1 winner is Buddha. He won three of four lifetime starts including the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, retired before the Derby due to injury, and has disappointed at stud. Let the buyer beware as it pertains to selecting a stallion for mating. Don't be fooled into breeding your mare to a question mark simply because he has the Grade 1 label.
***
Hi Dan--
With Gulfstream in self implode mode, what are the odds Brunetti resurrects Hialeah? After visiting GP last winter, and hearing all the bad stories coming out now, what will NY horsemen do with their stock if south Florida racing becomes unappealing and unprofitable?
Thanks,
e_s
I think the chances are very, very slim. The last full-time Hialeah meet was a disaster with lousy racing, and a ridiculously high takeout. They're in Dade County so they can't get slots to help with purses, and Gulfstream and Calder aren't going to give up their dates without a terrible fight. One way or another, there is going to be a Gulfstream. With or without Magna, there will be a meet, and the horsemen will flock there like geese soaring South for the winter. If New York horsemen find the races unappetizing, they can either stay in New York, and freeze on the inner track, run for decent purses while freezing in Pennsylvania, or ship down to Florida and get warm and toasty. The New York horsemen have plenty of claimers to keep the entry box filled in Hallandale. They'll still come.
Here's an interesting website:
http://www.savehialeahpark.com
***
Let's give Steve T (Steelin' and several other good winners) and tbone (Owen Roe O'Neill) the Handicapper of the Weekend trophy.
***
Talk to you soon,
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on November 19, 2007 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
If New York/New jersey horsemen need an alternative to Gulfstream then go to Tampa. They try hard to please the customer. The weather is warm and they have full fields. the turf course is great. You only have to put up with second place Yankee fans in March in town for spring training.
Posted by: TOM D. on November 19, 2007 at 06:11 PM
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I like the idea of restricting the number of Grade I's. How about taking another carrot away from those who would retire their horses prematurely. Why do we have to give Eclipse awards every year? Of course for 2 & 3 yr. olds, but let's just name champions in the other categories every three years. And then in the 10th year in the cycle an Eclipse of the decade.
Posted by: kyle newcomb on November 19, 2007 at 06:52 PM
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Leaving aside the $16 mil foolishness and the unreasonable expectations it's created, The Green Monkey on Weds. is the kind of horse I like to bet: he's been running kind of OK (at least showing a bit of early interest)and now there are some logical changes: turf, which he is bred to handle; mid-distance, for a trainer with a high sprint/route percentage; California (just possible this field is easier than what he's been facing).
The knocks are that he's worked well yet faded in the afternoons, which I think hints at a breathing problem, and that because of the hype he'll probably be overbet. But it's too soon to give up on him.
However... I'd say Relentless Pursuit would be my top pick and I'd check to see how much insider money comes in on Gitano.
Posted by: Kyri on November 19, 2007 at 07:24 PM
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Interesting note (or not): Roi Maudit (102 Beyer in the Maria's Mon listed above) was the winner of the Monkey's first outing. He's won every race since breaking his maiden (I think) but it took him something like 7 starts to to do it.
As for the graded stakes revamp ideas, check out this petition: American Graded Stakes Committee - Do Something! (http://agscdosomething.blogspot.com/)
The petition is signed by leaving a comment so one can leave suggestions and ideas.
Posted by: dana on November 19, 2007 at 07:58 PM
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Dan,
Let them put up a million for an N4X, I would rather see many fewer Grade 1's so there is no running and hiding - you want that black type, come and get it. The biggest problem with the number of G-1's is that they CAN run and hide, and no more Damascus/Dr Fager/Buckpasser type rivalries. Can you imagine if the Gas House Gang (HS, SS and Curlin) were all coming back next year?
Interestingly the sprinters really can't run and hide because there are comparatively fewer G-1's. Vosburgh, King's Bishop, Ancient Title, not a ton to make your stand.
I wouldn't give anyone a weight bust, if they are good enough 3 year olds (or fillies) to take on the big boys, then give it a go. Look at the weight Gallorette had to carry against colts, she did it.
I really like your idea on the handicapping series - there is a place that would help racing and is an appropriate use of a corporate sponsor. I loved the Visa Triple Crown series.
I am tired of the whole "speed is everything" philosophy in American racing. We are already in serious danger of losing the stamina influences of Bold Ruler, Princequillo, and Man O' War. Northern Dance and Mr. Prospector were great sires, but as a whole they lack in stamina. To me the mark of greatness (and class) is the ability to take on all comers - look at Ruffian, winner at 5.5F and at 12F and everywhere in between. Unless things change, it will probably never happen again.
I am really beginning to understand who runs this business, the breeders and owners, without regard to the sport or its shrinking fan base. They dominate the state racing boards, use known dirty trainers and will do whatever is necessary to make their stud fees.
I am probably being naive (that would be a first) about this whole stakes mess, but I would kill to see the kind of super rivalries of the 1940's, 50's and 60's and a Grade 1 race that you have to handicap with a magnifying glass.
Posted by: Steve T on November 19, 2007 at 08:37 PM
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The Wednesday race with The Green Monkey looks like a set up. Trust me, this is one of the easiest MSW fields I have seen at HP. If he can't beat these, he will either have to drop to claiming (not likely) or will sustain the mystery ailment and will be retired.
Posted by: Steve T on November 19, 2007 at 08:41 PM
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Dan the idea of limiting the grade I's is a good one. I think equally as important is establishing a pattern of races so we avoid these silly overlaps that we get with the 3YO at the end of July. I don't mind the KY Derby or BC preps because all the different races feed the Big Show and I think add a unique regional interest, but offering 3YO a combined $3.75 million in 4 different races over a 5 week span is silly.
Posted by: AlHattab on November 19, 2007 at 09:37 PM
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Steve T,
Somebody loves your horsey:
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=90452
And somebody else loves him too:
http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=42105
Steve Haskin is also getting warmed up for the Derby (ya' know, they start the Christmas shopping season earlier and earlier every year):
http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=42108
Haskin mentions Colonel John, Massive Drama (running in the HolPrevu Thursday - he's good!) and Court Vision (an "almost Bernardini/Mineshaft reverse cross" - by the Mr Prospector stallion Gulch out of a HS to Ap Indy/FS to Summer Squall), BUT no mention in the article of next year's actual Derby winner! (...remains UnderTheRadar for an Illman article early next year...)
Even if the HOL msw is considered a "Slam Dunk" setup for The Green Monkey Wednesday, he will still be a bet against for me. There will be some money also thrown at the two Frankel entries (assuming they don't scratch!), particularly the FTS by El Prado. However, I'll likely play against all of them and use instead:
*Relentless Pursuit -> for Paddy Gallagher, just missed breaking his maiden last out (in his 8th attempt!), now gets blinkers and TylerBaze, nice recent HOL work (shaved 2 secs off his previous 6f time.)
*Rather Be Lucky -> well bred (HB to Champali), 2nd-off layoff, 1st-back was a nice 2nd after slow start.
*Go All In -> by Giant's Causeway out of a Roberto mare, could complete an exacta for a nice price!
BTW, if he loses again, do you think they'll geld The Green Monkey to help him try to finally break his maiden? ;->
I actually don't think The Green Monkey msw is that bad a race! Maybe my standards have been lowered? Speaking of "lowered standards" (at least below sea level...), I found a msw pedigree play for Thanksgiving:
FG10 (msw 6f 2yo): #10 Sagaponack (ML:8/1) -> this is a somewhat nice 2yo msw at FG including an Empire Maker 2ndTS, a 2ndTS by Johannesburg for Bill Mott and a Posse FTS. My pick is a FTS by Hussonet ('B' FTS-sire) out of ARG stakes-winner Reina Vicotiosa - she is already dam of two SW (by More Than Ready) and is also FS to Quendom, the dam of Invasor. Sagaponack has three nice works this month at the track since coming down from KEE, including a very nice gate work SAT. Michael Stidham is 30/144 (20.8%) with FTS. (WP #10)
BTW, AlHattab,
Did you get to experience yet "Heaven in a Crab Cake" at Faidley's?
Posted by: Alan on November 19, 2007 at 10:49 PM
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I got one i like at Hollywood Wednesday in Race 7. Solemn Promise. A guy gave me this horse along with Fine Flyer about a month ago and he works at Highpointe, which is Winstar Farms training center in Kentucky, but these two have came off similar injuries and have been working in company since September. Mandella trains both and Fine Flyer(Fu Peg is the sire) ran at OSA on closing day and ran a fast closing third in a nw1 at 6 furlongs (which may have been a little short for this horse). Solemn Promise(Broken Vow) has put in a couple extra works and returns in a nw1 at 7 furlongs.
Unfortunately, drf.com just posted an article about this horse and it says Mandella wants to point this horse to the Strub Series, so this will probably hurt the price but off the layoff i think i should still get a decent number. I haven't been able to find any free PP's at any trainers websites to check out the race but i was just letting everyone know and seeing if anybody has an opinion on the race.
Posted by: bigblue0710 on November 19, 2007 at 11:38 PM
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I did not look at the race involving The Green Monkey on Wednesday, but I already know he'll be a big underlay.
Can he win? I suppose... again, I didn't look at the race, so I can't say much about the others in the field. However, he's going to be a really short price, once again. For what it's worth, I'd take my chances and bet against TGM all day long. He's just not worth the risk at short odds... turf is a last resort, especially for $16 million horses.
My only advice... don't get suckered into betting TGM again. Make him beat you. If he wins, so be it. You won't miss out on much anyway. So you lose a bet and rip up a ticket... big deal. If you can beat him, you should get great value.
For anyone betting TGM on Wednesday, there will be 2 possible outcomes:
1- A tiny underlaid payoff.
2- Another night spent kicking yourself for having no cojones and taking the sucker bait once again.
For anyone willing to live on the edge, there are 3 possible outcomes:
1- Missing out on a $3.80 win price, a $8 exacta, and a $17 tri.
2- A nice, overlaid score.
3- TGM loses, but you didn't have the winner anyway... at least you didn't get beat choking on a chalky 8-5.
TGM will always take tons of money. He'll be favored Wednesday for sure and that pattern will continue at least until he breaks his maiden and runs against winners. When that day comes, IF it comes at all, the payoff will be utterly forgettable. In the meantime, take advantage of this seemingly perennial false favorite.
Dana,
I wasn't able to connect on that link. I'll sign it if I can.
Kyle,
I like your ideas, although I'm not a big fan of the Eclipse Awards to begin with. I don't understand the point of having them... they serve no purpose other than encouraging early retirements by adding more fluff to a horse's resume for potential breeders.
Steve,
Trainers and breeders are in this for 1 reason only: to make money. Most owners are too, although some owners don't really care one way or the other because they made their bones in real estate or banking and are just doing this as a fun hobby. Horse racing and breeding is a business to these guys... many small and mid-size owners never even went to a racetrack until they were 45 years old, so how much are they supposed to care about the breed?
Rivalries? Horses don't compete long enough to even develop rivalries... 3 head-to-head races does not consitute a rivalry. It would be nice to see, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen any time soon. I wonder how long War Pass is sticking around... a 2YO making retirement plans is like a third grader taking shuffleboard lessons and hitting the bingo halls on Monday night.
Posted by: C on November 19, 2007 at 11:38 PM
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Kyri, nice thougtfull post on the Green Monkey. This horse has been beat upon, bad mouthed like he his a charles manson, cobra venom injecting addict. Not just on this blog but, professional writers as well. The GM can't help it that someone with more money than Fort Knox and, and ego larger the Grand Canyon purchased him. He is a nice looking horse and as a horse lover I am rooting for him not, his connections.
I hope he blows them away Wed. He has a decent turf ped. and, I thought he actually looked an improved horse in his last.
C. My comment to was you more about the gist of your post than Friends Lake. Dan clarified my thoughts with his post earlier.
I believe the pedigree/class angle is something that will come into play for all of us if we are paying attention. Probably all ready is for some you sharp ones (Alan, C., Steve T., Victsu, etc) I know there are many other sharp hdcp's reading. Didn't leave you out on purpose just tired and, brain dead.
Last thought, on this subject. I love my subscrition to Blood Horse magazine. Each week they upgrade the 2007 leading sires, 2007 leading sires of 2-yr olds, 2007 leading first-crop sires and, in this week's issue they have a page of 2007 Synthetic sires.
BH is IMO the best 100 bucks I spend each year.
Also as a horse racing fan have to mention Leslie Deckard's editorial about Sea Biscuit on page 6512 is a good read.
No, BH didn't pay me to make those comments. Is just an very imformative magazine.
Good Luck to All!
Posted by: johnny z on November 20, 2007 at 01:18 AM
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Got a quick question. What do you think about Santa Anita conducting a Thursday-Monday schedule.
I personally think that is a much better schedule than a Wednesday-Sunday (i think Thursday-Sunday is better than that and even Friday-Sunday is perfect, but I am dreaming)because it seems to me that Monday is a good day to conduct racing especially during football season. I already think they will conduct much better business on the Monday after the Super Bowl than the Wednesday before. Will you think this will become a recurring trend throughout racing.
Posted by: rcarce on November 20, 2007 at 02:33 AM
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Steve T.,
I am with you on The Green Monkey and his turf debut on Wednesday. It appears (if I did not know better) that Pletcher himself hand-picked this bunch...a couple of slow starters with decent turf pedigrees and a decent GC out of a Roberto mare (always an interesting turf prospect). It appears TGM may have a decent pedigree for the grass, but this may be another failed Pletcher attempt on grass with a horse that has him scratching his head (remember Circular Quay-but for what its worth, I would never compare a nice mile closer like CQ with TGM until the latter wins a few races-and I am not holding my breath).
C and Alan are right, however. He could certainly win the race, but he is a sucker-bet from the word go. I think you have to make this horse beat you and if he does, tip your hat and move on. But there is a chance he just may not. And at his odds, I would think you have to skip the underlay, skip TGM kool-aid, and have the hutzpah to either bet against him or skip the race altogether.
I will certainly be interested in how TGM performs...my heart might even hope that he wins. However, my wallet will not be backing TGM no matter what the hype until he shows to me he can win an actual race when it counts. Everything else is just blah, blah, blah...and people are watching his races the way you rubberneck at a train or auto accident.
Posted by: vicstu on November 20, 2007 at 05:43 AM
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Steve T says that Northern Dancer lacks stamina.You have got to be Joking.As much as ND dominates american breeding,he influences european breeding even more.The only ones with stamina issues are american breeders.
Posted by: Wally on November 20, 2007 at 09:41 AM
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Dan,
You got props yesterday on the TRRN (2nd-half of Hour2) for your Disabled List:
http://www.thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/option,com_events/task,view_detail/agid,112/year,2007/month,11/day,19/Itemid,35/
I have a CRAZY LONGSHOT PICK in an interesting 12 horse (prior to scratches) MSW race today. Here are the pp's, courtesy of ToddPletcher, if you want to handicap the race:
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_94814.pdf
PHA6 (MSW 6F 2yo): #7 Village Charmer (ML:20/1) -> 2ndTS for a low% trainer (Preciado) finished 4th by 15.5L 1st-out - WHAT AM I THINKING? 1st-race was a runaway winner (by 12L!) while Village Charmer just missed 3rd after racing wide throughout...and this MSW was a key race! Look at these next outs (3 wins, 1 2nd):
NEXT-OUT 5SEP07 PHA5:
(1) DoubleDownVinman - 1st n1x PHA 6F (Beyer 66)
(2) Superfecta - 1st 60KPA-Stks PHA 5.5F (Beyer 73)
(3) Regal Fantasy - 2nd MC MED 8F
->(4) VILLAGE CHARMER
(5) Hi Steppin Kat - 1st MSW PHA 6.5F (Beyer 81)
(6) A Fleeting Memory - 4th MC PHA 6F
(7) Propsistops - 5th MSW PHA 8F
(8) Brimstone Hill
(9) Loco Coco - 7th 60KPA-Stks PHA 5.5F
Village Charmer is a Grp1 BF horse (OBSAPR07: 6-over PAR, SL 25.19 = 1.80 over avgSL.) The entire race is actually full of Breeze Figure horses: BodyRock (Grp1 EASMAY07, 2nd&3rd in two starts so far), MarketTumble (Grp2 EASMAY07, FTS), Monsoor (Grp2 EASMAY07, 2ndTS), ServisMeNot (Grp2 EASMAY07, FTS by 'A' sire FiveStarDay) and TrickyStart (Grp3 EASMAY07, two 2nds in three starts so far.) There is also a nicely bred FTS just to the inside of Village Charmer in the race -> #6 JustATouch (ML:6/1), a 150K KEESEP06 purchase, by Aldebaran (3/16 FTS = 19%) out of Sprint-champion Safely Kept for Alan Goldberg.
The favorite will likely be #5 Geroni (ML:3/1), 1st-back from two nice 4.5F msw races at CD in May. TALK ABOUT KEY RACES!! Look at GERONI's last race (finished 3rd by 2L) - future stakes winners in CAPs:
26MAY07 CD6:
***(1) KODIAK KOWBOY - won Victoria St
***(2) YONEGWA - won msw
->(3) Geroni
***(4) DEPUTY DANCE - won wsw
(5) Eaton's Gift - won msw (after almost 5 month layoff)
***(6) OLD MAN BUCK - 3rd msw
(7) Pinerline - 9th msw
(8) Pulaski County - 10th msw
(9) Seaside Storm - 4th msw
My Goodness! Sorry for writing all this but as I kept looking at this race, I kept finding more interesting angles for me to consider/write at the same time. THIS IS WHY I LOVE HANDICAPPING!!! You never know what you may find when you are just looking to bet on a race on an otherwise lazy Tuesday morning! (WP #7)
Good luck today!!
Posted by: Alan on November 20, 2007 at 10:43 AM
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Kyri, sounds like the person you talked about in your post last week, when do you finally say enough is enough on a horse that you like but just can't seem to win.TGM looks the part of a maiden claimer at any major racetrack.
Posted by: asidero on November 20, 2007 at 10:43 AM
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Dan- one other thought re. your proposal: I think limited to 5 Grade 1s would hurt the game by concentrating most of the Grade 1s at the majors. I'm in favor of "mini BC days" at smaller venues (i.e., Monmouth) and taking, say, the Haskell's G1 away would reduce the appeal to those races. The Del Cap is another example. So maybe in this vein the G1 limit moves to 8 or 10, and, in Utopia, there is a requirement to have at least 2 other races eligible for grading to be held on every day a G1 is held. These are the days that currently attract National interest and once the conflicts are addressed could be expanded to a more formal "Road to the BC" with standings, etc.
Alan- my trip is Dec 7. I have a little one (3) so my thought was to grab the crab cakes and go. Is it easy to navigate around Lex market and is there somewhere safe I can park (looked like there was based on what I saw on the Lex Market website).
Posted by: AlHattab on November 20, 2007 at 10:48 AM
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Asidero, I don't think that was my post about saying enough is enough, but I don't think we're at that point with TGM. He's definitely no single, though. Although it is interesting to wonder if he can get an easy lead -- all the other ones that look good in here are closers, except El Gitano who we don't know about yet.
If TGM had sold for the 75K-125K he's probably worth, his odds would be much more respectable. I just don't think the super-high prices can be taken as any kind of reflection on reality.
As far as getting off a horse in time -- I always give up just before the horse wins. I burned tons of money on a filly called Polo Lounge last year. I think she finally did break her maiden. Or else I bet the horse when it loses and not when it wins -- I have that with both Istan and Saint Anddan.
Posted by: Kyri on November 20, 2007 at 11:05 AM
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Wally,
Sorry, but I don't believe that Northern Dancer lines have the stamina of the Bold Ruler, Nasrullah, Princequillo, Blenheim, Man O' War and other sires. And I am not saying that Northern Dance is a bad sire, I think he injected a ton of speed in the breed, but as always you can take a good thing too far, and that is what I believe we have done.
Look at the top "stamina" horses in the last 30 years and at their breeding:
Secretariat - Bold Ruler on top, Princequillo on bottom
Seattle Slew - Bold Ruler on top, Princequillo on bottom
Ruffian - Bold Ruler on top, Native Dancer on the bottom.
A.P. Indy - Bold Ruler and Princequillo on top, Bold Ruler and Princequillo on the bottom.
Affirmed - Native Dancer on top, Man o' War on the bottom.
Spectacular Bid - Bold Ruler and Princequillo on top, Blenheim on top and bottom.
Cigar - Princequillo on the top, Bold Ruler on the bottom.
This is not an attack on Northern Dancer, the point is that more U.S. bred horses have been without these stamina lines and now we are at a point where fewer and fewer can go 10-12 furlongs. Isn't it odd that the long standing world records for distances 10F and belong are the oldest records out there?
Sorry I stand by my statement that we have overdone the speed trait and have pushed the traditional stamina lines to the side.
Posted by: Steve T on November 20, 2007 at 11:49 AM
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Bigblue0710,
Thanks for for info on Solemn Promise. Too bad Espinoza has been so chilly - he's on a very live horse! Here are the pps (courtesy of Bongo racing):
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/bongo_94985.pdf
AlHattab,
Lexington Market is not for the faint of heart, particularly for a 3yo (bring/use a stroller.) It can get quite crowded at lunchtime (there are multiple food vendors in the market - Faidley's is semi-separated at the front on Paca St.) Here is a representative picture of the place:
http://www.baltimore.org/cmt_media/images/press/123.gif
There is an indoor lot attached - enter on the right off Paca. If the indoor lot is full, there is an outdoor lot adjacent to the building and if necessary another indoor lot (the Grand) a block away. It is somewhat a pain to get there but the crab cakes are well worth it!! (BTW, you can skip the fixings, particularly if you are taking them back to the hotel...) ENJOY!!
PHA6 is being run on a muddy track and 5 horses have been scratched (including the Aldebaran FTS for Alan Goldberg.) My CRAZY LONGSHOT is still entered - also noted now as 1st Lasix and Blinkers On -> I'll keep the pick. You may want to include Geroni (and Tricky Start) in exotics.
Posted by: Alan on November 20, 2007 at 12:24 PM
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HOLLYWOOD PARK – Wednesday (11-21-2007)
Race 1 – Any Kind of Storm, Gandolph, Inclusive
Race 2 – Justinplace, The Supply Program, Daytona
Race 3 – Regal Redemption, Feel Free to Flee, Hey Beautiful
Race 4 – Rather Be Lucky, Relentless Pursuit, Berkeley Castle
Race 5 –Lady In Love, Lucky Rylie, Short Sentence
Race 6 – Rollins, Unbroken Vow, Johnny Be Bueno
Race 7 – Wild Diplomat, Solemn Promise, Highway Patrol
Race 8 – Bayngen Bartok, Shakalaka, Ford Island
Posted by: Steve T on November 20, 2007 at 12:58 PM
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AQUEDUCT – Wednesday (11-21-2007)
Race 1 – Sarah’s Smiler (E), Becky’s Flute, Too Tired Tonight
Race 2 – Don’t Park Now, Taking The Redeye, Couth
Race 3 – Missile Motor (E), Daddy Joe, The Student
Race 4 – Burnished Copper, It’s Goodtobeking, Icabad Crane
Race 5 – Al Sheetan (AE), Dynaski (AE), Virginian, Hostile Takeover, Star Studded
Race 6 – Pure Devil, Judith’s Garden, Paging Ryan
Race 7 – Mutakaway, Willie’s Sweet Girl, Croesus
Race 8 – Inda, Stolen Star, Moneypenney
Race 9 – My Therapy, Special Format, Fiona Freud
Posted by: Steve T on November 20, 2007 at 01:48 PM
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Steve,
I'm sorry, but I think you're totally off-base about Northern Dancer. Whether his line has as much stamina as Bold Ruler's or Nasrullah's is something we can argue about forever but we'll never really know for sure. It's splitting hairs, really. But to say he injected speed before stamina is hard to swallow, considering he sired Sadler's Wells, Danzig, Nijinsky, Nureyev, and a ton of others.
Perhaps some of his offspring (Danzig?) were often bred to more speed-oriented female families, but I'd argue that's probably happened with most stamina sires over the last 15 years or so... I agree, obviously, that we've geared our breeding too heavily towards speed. But I still say Northern Dancer is one of the most important stamina influences of all time. Your list is selective and rather narrow-- Sadler's Wells is not a stamina influence? Where are all the Euros?
Wally is correct... Northern Dancer's offspring have won just about every major distance race in Europe several times over, including the 1 3/4 St Leger, the Arc, the English/Irish/French Derbies/Oaks, and the King George. He's also the grandsire of several BC Turf winners, even when winning that race probably meant more than it does now.
As far as the 10-12 furlong records go, those distances are reserved for a handful of races during the year nowadays. We don't see that many races beyond 9F anymore, especially on dirt. I don't think it's all about breeding though... it's training and early development too. I doubt the situation would be any different if there were more Bold Ruler or Nasrullah lines out there. Besides, how many Mr. Prospectors are running right now? Zillions. Wasn't Mr. Prospector double-inbred to Nasrullah himself? And I don't buy the theory that Mr. Prospector is strictly a speed influence... as a sire, I think he's far more versatile than many pedigree gurus give him credit for.
Northern Dancer = traditional stamina line. Just ask the Euros... as a sire, Northern Dancer stands out in a part of the world where EVERY horse is bred for stamina. Between the Euros and USA, the difference is not only breeding... training and the types of races available have to enter the equation too.
thanks, C
Posted by: C on November 20, 2007 at 03:54 PM
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Could The Green Monkey be the greatest play against horse since Funny Cide? (I love Funny Cide and came to my local OTB just to see him but...I realize some of his odds in the later years were ridiculous)
He seems to fit on paper once again against this field tomorrow, but he will surely be even money just because he's famous.
Posted by: RJ on November 20, 2007 at 04:06 PM
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Can you help out with getting some info on a couple of 2yo fillies that I saw at Saratoga...Moon de French (Mott has/had her..she won on 9/2)
...HopeHopeHope (Biancone had her...she ran in the same race as Moon de French and I think finished third)
Have not seen either on any work tabs since early September
Posted by: Payson Dave on November 20, 2007 at 07:19 PM
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This week should be a great week for racing around the world, with several excellent stakes races on both coasts as well as in Japan...and yet all we are talking about today are all of our problems. Thanks for getting me depressed...and thinking....
Underlying most of the arguments/laments about the state of modern racing (especially breeding) is economics - for me to even try to start to understand the behavior of breeders, owners & trainers, I have to "follow the money". IMO, I think in order to change their behavior, unfortunately we will have to change the rules. Here are some of my CRAZY LONGSHOT IDEAS to save racing (only a few from my "stream of consciousness" this evening, but hopefully they will at least do better than my CRAZY LONGSHOT pick in the msw from earlier today!)
ALAN'S CRAZY LONGSHOT IDEAS TO SAVE RACING:
1. Change entry rules for the Kentucky Derby
a. Maximum # horses = 14
b. WAYI for the final Derby preps (Wood, SADby, FaDby, ArkDby, BlueGrass, IllDby)
c. Remainder of the Derby field selected by Points System (3yo GrSt only, 1st-4th place.) For example: G1->WAYI/10/5/3, G2->10/5/3/1, G3->5/3/1/x; Then add up total# points for 3yo season.
2. Horses sired by a 4yo or younger horse will NOT be allowed to enter a Triple Crown race or Breeders Cup (similar to age restrictions in the NBA or freshman eligibility rule in college - may keep the Hard Spuns of the world racing as a 4yo...)
3. Large combo awards to WIN two races OVER two years:
For example: Preakness + Pimlico Special = $5 million, Belmont + Suburban (or Jockey Gold cup) = $5 million, Travers + Whitney = $5 million, Kentucky Derby + ?Donn (not sure what to link the Derby to...) = $5 million, SADby + SAHcp = $2 million, ArkDby + OaklawnHcp = $1 million, etc)
4. Breeders Cup
a. WAYI includes entry fees (or 50% if supplemented), only G1 or G2 races are WAYI races
b. Single race entry/nomination for horse
c. One BC day for 11+ championship races BUT have it at two tracks (like Sunshine Millions Day.) And use famous foreign venues for the turf races! For example, one year all the turf races at Longchamps AND the dirt races at CD (I know...I'M CRAZY...can you imagine the scheduling with the time differences?)
d. Add a turf sprint (and run it at SAR just for Andy...)
5. Trainer drug suspensions
a. 3 strikes and you're out (horses get transferred to another trainer) - no exceptions, every state.
b. Horses trained by suspended trainer DO NOT RACE (punish the owners -> puts pressure on the trainers)
6. Universal access on the internet to betting at all American race tracks.
7. Horseplayer enticements:
a. "Special" low takeout wagers (ELP P4) or wagering days
b. More Multitrack P4s (similar to the NTRA Stakes P4)
c. Racetrack season pass (to use at any major racetrack in the country)
It is sad to see horse racing dying such a slow painful death in this country while it is flourishing in so many other parts of the world. Our sport is made for the computer age (information access, online wagering, real-time videos), yet we seem to be unable to harness that potential! But I'm not ready to give up!! (WP #HORSE RACING)
Posted by: Alan on November 20, 2007 at 08:56 PM
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Was going to reply to Steve T.'s Northern Dancer response to Wally, but C did it so eloquently, there is not much left to add...other than in addition to horse's directly sired by Northern Dancer (a few mentioned by C) let us not forget that ND is the grandsire of Danehill(Danzig), who actually had as great an influence on European racing as any single sire in the last 25 years. The late GW was out of Danehill, as were numerous other European champions.
The Northern Dancer line is very popular in Europe and Australia (and worldwide), where distance still matters, and is also a major turf influence. Danzig and Sadler's Wells are still higly sought after lines even though the former passed in 2006. How popular?
Consider this: Hard Spun and Street Sense have been retired to Darley and are actually next to each other in their stable (how ironic?). So they get to see each other constantly (if the walls could hear horse talk). In any event, although SS has a good distance record at 10 f and is charging 25K more per mating than HS, HS actually has a fuller shuttling book overseas already and is in high demand in Europe and in Australia as well (due to their recent quarantine that wiped out about 6 months of breeding chances). Danzig and the Northern Dancer line commands attention of horsemen worldwide.
Which does not mean I do not understand the thrust of Steve's argument, because I do, its just that there is a world of influence to consider, and when you do it is much more complicated than just saying A has more stamina lines than B.
BTW, wouldn't be surprised in HS picked up where his sire and his half brother left off. And you have to admit, HS's stamina lines combined with his heart and pure speed, if it could be passed on and bred through to progeny by a strong, stamina influenced mare, would be awesome. Unfortunately, the first stakes race that the progeny won would probably be the time they announce breeding rights being purchased and soon he will be scurried off to the breeding shed wondering what could have been at age 4.
Which is, after all, what many are thinking about HS and SS (and AGS)at this very moment. Soon, that list may include Curlin as well (and his 4.00 dosage index-which shows its the horse, not the dosage, that actually wins classic races!).
Posted by: svhill on November 20, 2007 at 08:56 PM
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Okay looks like we are going to go to pedigree hell here.
Here are the sires that I believe lend stamina to the mix:
Blue Larkspur
Teddy
Fair Play
Man O' War
Bold Ruler
Nasrullah
Princequillo
Count Fleet
Blenheim
Gainsborough
Bull Lea
Round Table
My contention is that Northern Dancer crossing with one of the above works, where multiple ND crosses lose stamina.
Now let's dissect the impact of Northern Dancer:
First, Northern Dancer himself was not a great stamina horse (look at his Belmont). The speed influence of Polynesian in the line is indisputable.
How many Northern Dancer crosses have been Triple Crown winners? NONE (Affirmed was the closest with Native Dancer on top AND Man O' War and Blenheim on the bottom).
Let's take a look at the "modern" Triple Crown winners pedigree lineage:
Affirmed: Native Dancer over Man O' War
Seattle Slew: Bold Ruler over Princequillo
Secretariat: Bold Ruler over Princequillo
Citation: Bull Lea over Gainsborough
Assault: Bold Venture over Fair Play
Count Fleet: Reigh Count over Quickly (none)
Whirlaway: Blenheim over Dust Whirl
War Admiral: Man O' War over Brush Up
Almost every Northern Dancer (or Native Dancer) sire I have seen that is considered to be among the greats has the stamina lines noted above on the bottom:
Storm Cat
Sadlers Wells
Danzig
Mr. Prospector
Nijinsky II
Let's look at Northern Dancer's top ten money earners and what kind of breeding they have on the dam side:
1. Herat (Bold Ruler)
2. Nijinsky II (Bull Lea)
3. Sadlers Wells (Nasrullah)
4. Chapel of Dreams (Bold Ruler/Princequillo)
5. The Minstrel (Bull Lea)
6. Alma North (Man O' War)
7. El Gran Senor (Man O' War 2X)
8. Hero's Honor (Man O' War)
9. Unfuwain (Prince Rose - sire of Princequillo)
10. Fabulous Dancer (Blenheim 2X, Gainsborough, Blue Larkspur)
Let's go a little deeper and look at Mr. Prospector (a Native Dancer) and what his top ten money earner list looks like and the dam lines:
1. Gulch (None)
2. Forty Niner (Nasrullah)
3. Seeking the Gold (Blue Larkspur 2X, Man O' War)
4. Fusaichi Pegasus (Northern Dancer)
5. Chester House (Northern Dancer)
6. Aldebaran (Northern Dancer)
7. Shake Hand (Northern Dancer)
8. Educated Risk (Bold Ruler and Princequillo)
9. Dancethruthedawn (Northern Dancer)
10. Rhythm (Northern Dancer)
Now which of these would you pick for "stamina", the Northern Dancers? The other thing that stands out is the majority of these now carry the same genes on top and bottom - and that is my objection to "too much Northern Dancer".
I am sorry, but I can readily see where the addition of one of the stamina lines I noted increases the stamina of a Northern Dancer, but I do not see the converse.
I maintain my stand, adding Northern Dancer to Northern Dancer = loss of stamina.
Posted by: Steve T on November 20, 2007 at 09:47 PM
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C & all, here's the link the to the American Graded Stakes Committee - Do Something petition again.
http://agscdosomething.blogspot.com/
Posted by: dana on November 20, 2007 at 10:47 PM
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Dan, et.al.:
3rd race at Churchill, this Friday the 23rd. Md $50,000k, 5.5 furlongs. This looks good. My line follows w/ comments:
1. Sgt. Joe (12/1) Chance to improve on dirt, and a wet track.
2. Firefromthepit (25/1) Some okay works, but not yet.
3. Khrisgo (20/1) Steady trainee, but needs this one.
4. E Factor (10/1) Interesting entry may improve.
5. Don'tquestion It (12/1) Has some upside, but not quite yet.
6. Real Cat Daddy 25/1) He is picking up steam on his works, but still too soon.
7. Sinister (35/1) No.
8. Coffeedrinkinbuddy (6/1) May be ready with a switch to dirt, May show speed here.
9. Midnight Illusion (50/1).
10. Big Hat No Cattle (9/2) Maybe if price is right.
11. American Citizen (4/1) Believe he is ready for this race.
12. Faithope (10/1) Has a chance to improve here.
13. Way of the Tiger (8/1) Playable in this field at this price.
14. Vaya Con Dios (7/2) The Pick if he draws. Can secure the garden-spot here.
15. Little Big Time (15/1) Closed very well last time out. Maybe at a price?
16. Waylay (15/1) Nice workouts coming into this. Consider if he draws and retains C. Borel.
My play: Vaya Con Dios to Win, and the exacta with that one over Coffeedrinkinbuddy/American Citizen/Little Big Time.
Van Savant
Posted by: Van Savant on November 20, 2007 at 11:22 PM
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Hi Steve,
Considering Northern Dancer retired in the mid-60s and didn't have 3YO offspring until the late 60s/early 70s, it's a little misleading to look at the full list of triple crown winners and compare him to ManOWar (raced around 1920) or Bold Ruler, who was about 10 years older. Of the 3 TC winners of the 70s, 1 (Affirmed) shares common blood via Native Dancer via Polynesian. If you go back a few generations, Northern Dancer also has Blemheim (bottom) and Gainsborough (top) in his pedigree. In fact, Bold Ruler and Northern Dancer both have Nearco as a grandsire.
Look at it this way: for Bold Ruler and Northern Dancer, only the last 3 triple crown winners can be compared because of their age. Bold Ruler had a 10-year head-start... where were his triple crown winners during the 60s? Where have his triple crown winners been since 1977?
It's silly to say that 2 out of 3 over ~50 years is statistically better than 1 out of 3 over ~40 years, or vice versa. There's no statistical significance there.
This almost reminds me of the stats Alan dug up before the BC Classic that suggested the Goodwood was a more productive prep race than the JCGC. I think the numbers were 6 Goodwoods versus 4 JCGCs. I tried to warn everyone not to get carried away with 6 versus 4... the tally now stands at 6 versus 5.
Also, Northern Dancer's Belmont was just 1 race. He won the first 2 legs and the 10f Queen's Plate for good measure. Hey, great horses get beat sometimes. Secretariat ran 3rd in the Wood... does that mean he was no good at 9F? It happens. Why is winning the TC the measuring stick anyway? Check out the pedigrees of the 12F BC Turf winners from the beginning. I think long-term Euro stats for Group 1 routes trump an offspring winning the American triple crown, which is a real rarity to begin with. BTW, Nijinsky won the English triple crown:
1 mile 2000 Guineas
1 1/2 English Derby
1 3/4 St Leger
That was 1970... it hasn't been done since and it was only the second time since Gainsborough (on your list) did it in 1918. Nijinsky tacked on the Irish Derby and King George the same year just for kicks.
As far as Mr Prospector, I would just say he was a versatile stallion... sprint/intermediate/route, dirt/turf, whatever. Here, a top 10 earners list will usually be skewed towards more recent offspring, but I see your point. All I know is, he sired Forty Niner (Travers), Fusaichi Pegasus (KDby), Tanks Prospect (Preak), Conquistador Cielo (Bel). He's also the grandsire of another 3 KD winners, 4 Preakness winners, and 6 Belmont winners. His 3rd and 4th generations add another 5 Derbies, 6 Preaknesses, and 5 Belmonts. In total, his 1st 4 generations have won 9 Derbies, 11 Preaknesses, and 12 Belmonts. Stamina? Nah.
Posted by: C on November 21, 2007 at 03:39 AM
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The Green Monkey, had he not sold for 16 million, would just be another horse at the moment. Has anyone noticed that if any other horse finished 3rd in his debut, that that would be considered phenomenal, mainly because of the inexperience. Also, the horses in that race were obviously not bad, because the winner just went a 102 beyer, didn't he?
Another thought-Circular Quay. I know that he's sired by Thunder Gulch, meaning that he should have no problem going long, but he's only won once going a route, and he's undefeated sprinting. Maybe that's where he needs to be placed in his next start, whenever and where ever that is. Perhaps that would get him back in the winners' circle.
For the Breeders' Cup, why don't they have a dirt mile and a half race? That would give breeders an incentive to introduce more stamina into pedigrees, and give horses like Jazil another oppertunity to race at a high level at his best distance. Also, they should have a turf sprint and a filly and mare mile. They have the sprint races in Europe, and the Europeans have had a huge impact on the turf Breeders' Cup races.
Lastly, I understand that some of you out there think that Northern Dancer isn't a good stamina influince. Here, I do believe that you stand corrected. He is the sire of Vice Regent, who is the sire of Deputy Minister, who is the dam of Better than Honour, placing him in the female line of the last two Belmont winners. Other Belmont winners since 2002 with Northern Dancer-Sarava, who is also out of a mare by Deputy Minister. Northern Dancer is also the sire of El Gran Senor, the sire of Toussand, who is the dam of Empire Maker. Birdstone-his dam is the daughter of Storm Bird, who is the son of-guess who? Northern Dancer. The only horse to win the Belmont in the last 5 years without Northern Dancer in his female line was Afleet Alex. Northern Dancer is also in the female line of Curlin, Street Sense, Victory Gallop, Touch Gold (Northern Dancer is in his sire line as well), Thunder Gulch, Colonial Affair, Hansel, and is in the sire line of Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, Tabasco Cat, Go and Go, and Danzing Connection. That means that since 1986, Northern Dancer appears in the female lines of 11 Belmont winners, and in the sire lines of 3 Belmont winners.
Posted by: Chase on November 21, 2007 at 11:11 AM
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I'll chime in with my ideas for saving racing:
Restrict the BC Classic, Mile, Turf, and Sprint to 4YO and up.
Add a series of 1 1/2 mile stakes races to the year's calendar nationwide, culminating in a BC Marathon for 4YO and up.
I agree with someone's idea of limiting the Derby to 14 starters. I'd add the Santa Anita Derby as a win and you're in prep.
Sensible, uniform-nationwide, medication policy with strict penalties for severe offenses.
Breeders choosing not to send their mares to horses that were retired before five years of age or were retired unsound as juveniles.
I don't think any of this will ever happen :)
Posted by: Kyri on November 21, 2007 at 11:52 AM
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Alan,
Interesting post on how to save racing. I don't think the Derby will ever reduce the field size. The owners put up $50,000 each to come up with a million of the two million dollar purse. I have always liked the idea of a late blooming 3yo having a run at the Derby. With just 14 horses and graded points necessary, this probably would not happen. Your idea for the multi race bonuses is great. I don't know where the bonus money would come from but it is a great incentive. How about really making it interesting? Make it three races. At Saratoga you could use the Hopeful, the Travers and the Whitney. At Churchill you could use the KY Jockey Club, the Derby and the Stephen Foster. Penalizing an owner for a trainers violation might be a bit too severe. In many cases the owners would probably sell their horses and leave the game. We need more owners not less owners. And anything that would be a bonus to the folks that pay for much of the game (us) would be wonderful. I was thinking the other day about a post from someone who was complaining (and rightfully so) about the changes at Woodbine not being available early. One of the differences between how our game is presented and how casinos present their offerings is the personnel. At casinos the management personnel start out at the bottom and then move up the food chain. They learn the proper way to take care of the customers. And in many cases they were customers of a casino and know how they want to be treated. At the track, they hire people who have no appreciation for the game and no idea how the game is played. They don't understand why change information is important. They couldn't tell you the difference between a furlong and a foot long and they could care less. Oh well. Enough complaining for now.
Posted by: Ray Manley on November 21, 2007 at 12:24 PM
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In todays 5th at hollywood i'm going to single Run Right Thru and naturally try and beat the Green Monkey in the 4th to hit some pick 3s. In the 4th I'm leaning toward Relentless Pursuit and Rather Be Lucky. Now I just need a live price horse in the 3rd and/or 6th race to make it pay nice. So far i like Point Proven in the 3rd, still looking at the 6th.
tbone
Posted by: tbone on November 21, 2007 at 12:48 PM
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I've never been much of a pedigree buff, but I did some more research into Mr. Prospector's sire-line offspring in TC races and it was kind of interesting.
I don't think TC races are necessarily the greatest proof of stamina, and I'm aware of the dangers of reading into pedigree too much... all thoroughbreds are related if you trace the roots far enough. Anyway, for what it's worth, here's Mr Prospector's sire-line offspring and their female families for the TC races. I was completely unbiased with regards to Northern Dancer versus Bold Ruler in the female families... if I found it, I report it here.
ALL of the following have MP in their sire lines:
VictoryGallop: Northern Dancer in female line.
RealQuiet: Native Dancer in female family.
Unbridled: In Reality female family.
Grindstone: nothing of note.
Birdstone: Northern Dancer (via Storm Bird) in female family.
RedBullet: nothing of note.
EmpireMaker: Northern Dancer in female line via ElGranSenor.
ConquistadorCielo: Bold Ruler line.
TanksProspect: nothing of note.
Hansel: Northern Dancer line.
TimberCountry: nothing of note.
ThunderGulch: Northern Dancer in female line.
PointGiven: Both MP and Northern Dancer in male line with Native Dancer (via Alydar) in female family.
SmartyJones: Both MP and Northern Dancer in male line with Bold Ruler in female line via Smile, who was a sprint champion BTW.
Commendable: Both MP and Bold Ruler in male line, with InReality female line.
AfleetAlex: Both MP and Northern Dancer in male line, with Bold Ruler in female family.
EditorsNote: Bold Ruler in female line.
FunnyCide: Both MP and Northern Dancer in male line, Bold Ruler (via Seattle Slew) in female family.
Jazil: Northern Dancer female family.
StreetSense: Both Northern Dancer and Bold Ruler in female family.
LemonDropKid: Both MP and Northern Dancer (via Nureyev) in male line, with Bold Ruler in female line.
WarEmblem: nothing of note.
Curlin: Northern Dancer female family.
FusaichiPegasus: Northern Dancer (via Danzig) in female line.
Seems like the Mr Prospector--NorthernDancer nick has been very productive. Of the 24 horses listed, 14 had Northern Dancer within 5 generations, while 8 had Bold Ruler... of those, 5 had both. To be fair, Bold Ruler was a little older than Northern Dancer, and it's possible that MP and Northern Dancer's lines were crossed more often. I'll be the first to admit that ANY statistic can lie... there are too many other factors that can skew the numbers. So, this list doesn't necessarily mean that Northern Dancer is a superior stamina sire than Bold Ruler... hardly. But it does suggest that Northern Dancer alone is sufficient... Bold Ruler or other nicks are not a requirement for stamina. BTW, in my opinion, it also suggests that Mr Prospector's offspring cannot be automatically labeled as sprinters.
Steve, I rediscovered some other important stamina influences that I'm sure you're aware of, but didn't list: Turn-To, InReality, Buckpasser, and Nearco.
Chase and Kyri,
Not many are going to show up for a 12F dirt race. Just because they card it, doesn't mean anyone's going to want in. IMO, we need LESS, not more, BC races ('BC champ' Maryfield??? puh-lease). The Friday races were weak and unnecessary... with few exceptions, turf is not the first option for most fast-developing high-quality 2YOs. To have a (future) G1 turf route for 2YOs is an oxymoron.
Chase,
I wouldn't call a debut 3rd 'phenomenal', considering how many FTS win every day. TGM will probably win one day and may not end up being a terrible horse. The point is that he's going to be bet FAR more than he should because of his auction price. Until he wins, he's an automatic underlay simply because the public will pound him 5x more than they should.
Posted by: C on November 21, 2007 at 01:32 PM
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C,
My point is not that Northern Dancer is a weak sire, obviously he is not - it is that continuing to breed back to that gene set (or excluding the other gene sets that I listed) is problematic.
When you look at the amount of Northern Dancer in the gene pool, it is over the edge. The only real non-ND sire out there of any significance in A.P. Indy.
As I said using a Northern Dancer with one of the sires I cited produces some very nice offspring - let's look at the horses you cited:
Nijinsky - Northern Dancer over Bull Lea, Blue Larkspur and Man O'War
Forty Niner - Mr. Prospector over Nasrullah and Princequillo
Fusaichi Pegasus - Mr. Prospector over Northern Dancer (but he picks up Man O' War through Pas de Nom)
It is important to note that Mr. Prospector is another with Northern Dancer over Teddy, Nasrullah, and Count Fleet.
Tank's Prospect - Mr. Prospector over Man O' War, Teddy, and Gainsborough.
Conquistador Cielo - Mr. Prospector over Bold Ruler, Blenheim and Gainsborough.
Look at everybody's current "hot" sire, Smart Strike - a Mr. Prospector over Nasrullah and Princequillo.
Look at Roberto, another stamina horse - he has multiple crosses of Teddy, Blue Larkspur, Man O' War, Nasrullah and Bull Lea.
Everybody keeps sticking on the issue of Northern Dancer - it is not an issue with ND it is the fact that continuing to use him on both sides is problematic. Look at the horses you cited, they all have the influences from the horses I cited. If we continue to stamp out Bold Ruler, Princequillo, et al. we will be doing a huge disservice to the breed.
Like any other animal, distaff families of horses are critical to maintaining the gene pool. It is not surprising that ND was a boost to the European horses, he was a real outsider to their gene pool.
We can probably continue this discussion forever. The last figure I read said that Northern Dancer/Native Dancers are in 90% of all pedigrees, that to me is too high.
What will happen once we lose A.P. Indy? He is the true carrier of the torch with double crosses of Bold Ruler, Princequillo, Nasrullah, Blenheim, Man O' War, Amphion, everybody.
The final fact I will leave you with is this, the indisputable top three stamina horses in the history of racing were Man O' War, Secretariat and Kelso. Do we really want to lose the lineage that produced them?
Posted by: Steve T on November 21, 2007 at 01:44 PM
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Steve T., C, Chase,
Here's an article that may add some clarification to your discussion of pedigrees and stamina:
http://www.werkhorse.com/infores.shtml
Although a bit dated (2001) it still has some good information that is still pertinent today.
The Mr. Prospector bloodline is presently, without a doubt, the dominant line on the Triple Crown trail producing thoroughbreds who have won 29 of the past 72 Triple Crown races that have been ran since 1984.
Posted by: Calvin Carter on November 21, 2007 at 02:21 PM
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RE: Northern Dancer
C, Absolutely outstanding effort making the case for Northern Dancer and the aside case for Mr. Prospector!
Steve T, I have to say, I would never have imagined that anyone could have been as creative and effective making an argument against Northern Dancer being a stamina influence. That said, you are definitely swimming upstream with this contrarian perspective!
Regardless of anything ND ever did as a racehorse, it's difficult to argue that he doesn't have profound stamina influences in his pedigree (he does share the same paternal grandsire as Bold Ruler in Nearco and is inbred top and bottom to Gainesborough...) and then in turn hasn't passed on profound stamina influence through his progeny (numerous examples).
I thoroughly enjoyed reading these posts and thanks to all of you for your efforts!
Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on November 21, 2007 at 02:29 PM
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Hey Steve,
I understand the point you've making, even if I don't really agree with it.
These stats are a dicey thing, no matter which side of the fence you're on. You mentioned Northern/Native Dancers being in 90% of pedigrees. I'd say Mr. Prospector is getting there too. Storm Cat may be next. It's important to remember, as you point out, that these sires have covered thousands of mares... eventually, their offspring are going to win important races at all kinds of distances just because of the sheer numbers. It's almost bound to happen once in a while, so these stats can't be taken too far.
I agree with you about APIndy and a handful of others, although we'll never really 'lose' the lineage that produced Secretariat, ManOWar, and others... all thoroughbreds are related somehow.
Posted by: C on November 21, 2007 at 04:34 PM
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On arguing that the continuing inbreeding to Northern Dancer is detrimental, you would have thought I was arguing for biting the heads off of puppies...
Speaking of inbreeding, to the person that sent me 300+ e-mails with a Subject line of "Northern Dancer" and a blank From line - grow the f*** up! It's a discussion, that is what adults do junior, not spamming someone you disagree with.
Posted by: Steve T on November 21, 2007 at 04:53 PM
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The Green Donkey dies again, news at 11:00. Rather Be Lucky was the winner, TGD was 4th.
Posted by: Steve T on November 21, 2007 at 05:09 PM
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C,
Seeing that Northern Dancer went to stud in 1965, and his first crop was eligible in 1969, let’s look at the Belmont winners from 1969 to 1984 (vs. your 1985 to 2007).
Damascus – Teddy, Fair Play, Blue Larkspur and Man O’War on the sire side, Blue Larkspur on the Dam side.
Stage Door Johnny – Princequillo, Count Fleet, Blue Larkspur on the sire side, Gainsborough on the dam side.
Arts and Letters – No one on the sire side, Fair Play, Man O’War and Gainsborough on the dam side.
High Echelon (Native Charger x Loquillo) – Native Dancer and Gainsborough on the dam side, Princequillo was the dam sire.
Pass Catcher (All Hands x La Grue) – Blenheim and Teddy on the sire side, Man O’War (2x), Prince Rose (sire to Princequillo) and Teddy on the dam side.
Riva Ridge (First Landing x Iberia) No sire influence of the ones we are discussing, Gainsborough and Man O’ War on the dam side.
Secretariat (Bold Ruler x Somethingroyal) – Bold Ruler was the sire, and Princewuillo was the dam sire. Too bad he never amounted to anything…
Little Current (Sea Bird x Luiana) Native Dancer and Prince Rose on the sire side, Teddy on the Dam side.
Avatar (Graustark x Brown Berry) – Gainsborough on the sire side. Blenheim. Gainsborough, and Teddy on the dam side.
Bold Forbes (Irish Castle x Comely Nell) – Bold Ruler on the sire side. Bull Lea, Blenheim and Man O’ War on the dam side.
Seattle Slew (Bold Reasoning x My Charmer) – Bold Ruler on the sire side, Round Table, Princequillo, Nasrullah, Man O’ War (2x) on the dam side. Another clunker.
Affirmed (Exclusive Native x Won’t Tell You) – Native Dancer and Teddy on the sire side, Teddy, Man O’ War and Blenheim on the dam side.
Coastal (Majestic Prince x Alluvial) – Native Dancer and Teddy on the sire side, Man O’ War, Princequillo and Blue Larkspur on the dam side.
Temperance Hill (Stop The Music x Sister Shannon) – Blue Larkspur, Teddy and Prince Rose on the sire side. Gainsborough and Nasrullah on the dam side.
Summing (Verbatim x Sumatra) – Princequillo, Count Fleet, Man O’ War, and Nasrullah on the sire side. Nasrullah, Man O’ War, Fair Play and Teddy on the dam side.
Conquistador Cielo (Mr. Prospector x KD Princess) – Native Dancer, Nasrullah, Count Fleet and Teddy on the sire side. Bold Ruler and Blenheim on the dam side.
Caveat (Cannonade x Cold Hearted) – Bold Ruler and Princequillo on the sire side. Blenheim, Blue Larkspur, and Gainsborough on the dam side.
Swale (Seattle Slew x Tuerta) – Bold Ruler, Princequillo, Nasrullah (2x), Round Table on sire side. Gainsborough and Nasrullah on the dam side.
Crème Fraiche (Rich Cream x Lively Exchange) – Nasrullah (2x) and Bull Lea on the sire side. Gainsborough (3x) on the dam side.
The one note I would make after dissecting all of these pedigrees is that is remarkable that Man O' War had such an incredible impact considering that he covered very few mares.
Let's call it a day on this topic. I think we both agree that diversity is a requirement to keep the breed strong. Since I started it, you get the last word.
Posted by: Steve T on November 21, 2007 at 05:59 PM
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Steve T-
I agree with C-I understand your point entirely, and I guess a point can be made for both sides. And with 90% of all race horses having Native/Northern Dancer, you're gonna have a huge number of Triple Crown race winners, simply because of the numbers. Maybe we're both right, maybe we're both wrong. As you say, this could go on and on forever, so I guess we'll never know for sure.
Posted by: Chase on November 21, 2007 at 06:37 PM
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Well, The Green Monkey lost again, but I don't feel too bad. I boxed the top four in a superfecta and got $423.70. Wish I would have had Mom Roo in that other race.
Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2007 at 07:08 PM
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Here are some interesting facts that I found while rooting around the pedigree tree:
Three of Man O'Wars top ten earners came from the same Dam sire, Star Shoot.
When we talk about a horse being run too often, we ought to look at how they used to run them, here are the starts for the top 5 Man O' War progeny:
Mightiest: 248 starts
War Dressing: 188 starts
Pre War: 163 starts
War Bonnet: 157 starts
Sea Fox: 149 starts
And there were 24 who made 90 starts or more. The only sire who had progeny with anywhere near that number of starts was his son, War Admiral whose top starter ran 180 times.
Think about 248 starts - if they ran from 2 to 8, that is 6 years or 41 starts PER YEAR!
Posted by: Steve T on November 21, 2007 at 09:37 PM
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Wow what a Weekend~ I did not really believe it but if anyone caught the 2nd race of Churchill on November 24th~ A couple of long shots came in and paid my $10 exacta over $800 dollars!! My friend came up with a system I used at handicappersdream.com I am sure the results are not always this good~ but that is the most I have ever won. I love horseracing:)
Posted by: Joe Kaufman on November 26, 2007 at 11:50 PM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 
