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FormBlog | November 16, 2007
Holy Bull, Saturday picks, handy vs. breezing
I'm thinking about singling D Pirates Marker in the 7th tomorrow at Hollywood. Coming off a real nice race, but it was at Bay Meadows. He's looks like an honest, consistent horse. Should sit a nice trip behind Gothic Beauty and Angel Craft. Gothic has never been this far. Angel looks like turf is her surface, and Espinoza is ice cold right now (24-1-0-2). That leaves D Pirate to pick up the peaces right?
Right. Nice pick. D Pirates Marker stalked and pounced under Garrett Gomez to score as the second choice in the seventh at Hollywood.
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Dan,
Why is there so much experimentation with the scheduling of races in recent years? NYRA moved the Woodward to Saratoga, now Gulfstream does this. There are several other examples. I don't understand the need to change everything. Why can't they just leave these races the way they were? What was wrong with the existing calendar in these cases? I just don't get it.
LEAVE IT ALONE!
C
I agree with you 100%. One of the few things that racing can proudly point to in this era of drugs and cheating is its great tradition. Any racing fan worth their salt knows when and where races like the Wood Memorial, Pacific Classic, and Fountain of Youth are held. The Woodward-to-Saratoga move was mind-boggling as the Woodward and Whitney are now carbon copies of each other. I'm not sure if racetracks are looking to attract more fans to attend the races by rescheduling major stakes races on "off" weekends, or if they are placating horsemen by giving their charges more time to find the "perfect spot," and more opportunities to shop around.
You know my stance on stakes races. There are way too many of them. Being a stakes-winner isn't special or prestigious anymore. Trainers will find the softest spot for the most money, and voila! There are five-horse stakes races led by a 1-5 shot. Limit the stakes races, and you'll have big fields of potential stallion prospects battling it out for blacktype that actually means something. Big horse in the barn doesn't win a graded stakes at three? Maybe the connections would be more inclined to race at four instead of retiring their "graded winner" to stud prematurely.
I don't like the moving of races because it confuses fans. The Derby Trail shouldn't be confusing to schedule. Have a seven furlong prep, a mile prep, a prep at 1 1/16 miles, and a nine-furlong prep. Gulfstream is moving the Holy Bull to compete with the Lexington as a "last-resort" prep. Let me tell you something. If the Florida three-year-olds haven't distinguished themselves by the time the Holy Bull rolls around, then they're not going to contend in the Triple Crown races anyway. Also, the Gulfstream meet gets drastically weaker once the Florida Derby card is over. The best trainers move on to Keeneland and New York, and the Gulfstream cards are filled with hideous 5K claimers. Perhaps by moving the Holy Bull to later in the meet, track management is looking to keep some of the bigger barns and better horses on the backstretch.
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vicstu,
I hadn't realized that the race was changed to a mile in 2007.
In 2006, as Greg points out, it was 1 1/8. In fact, it was always a 9 furlong race until this year.
C
The Holy Bull (run as the Preview Stakes from 1990-1995) is basically the ugly stepchild of the Gulfstream stakes schedule. The powers that be seem to have no idea where to place it on the calendar, and at what distance to actually run the race. The inaugural Preview Stakes was run at 1 1/8 Miles, and it was won by Home at Last and Jerry Bailey. The race was contested at 1 1/16 Miles from 1991-2004 (best Beyer during that period earned by Second of June - 111 in 2004), and Kentucky Derby winner Go for Gin won the Preview in 1994. Other notable horses to have raced in the Preview/Holy Bull during that time period are Editor's Note (second, 1996), and Captain Bodgit (third, 1997). The race was switched back to nine furlongs in 2005 (won by Closing Argument), and Barbaro won the 2006 running at that distance. Last year, the race was changed to a one-turn mile, and it was won by Nobiz Like Shobiz. Now, it's at 1 3/16 Miles.
Speaking of the TVG contest, when I was making my picks, it seems like every workout at Hollywood was listed as "handily". I know that's somewhat subjective on the part of the clocker, but other than that, Dan, (or anyone) Do you know the reason for that?
Stephen Taylor
It's a subjective process, but in California, the clockers are a bit strict. If a horse is asked at all for run at any point of the workout (and most horses are), then the workout will be listed as "handily." It is very, very rare for a horse to get the "breezing" designation. Due to the speed-favoring nature of the tracks in California (pre-synthetic, of course), trainers would work their horses faster. To achieve this, the riders would urge their mounts, and the works would be considered handily. It's been like this for a long, long time. I wouldn't upgrade or downgrade a horse's chances based on the "handily" designation.
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...Dan, also what do you make of the scratches of #1 GreatShot (ML:9/2), #6 StarPlayer (ML:5/2) and #7 BishopCasey (ML:6/1) in CD7? Is there a "monster" horse in the race (my best guess would be #9 Ride the Whiz or #2 Ship's Piano in that case)? Or are the owners/trainers just afraid of the horse being claimed for the 50K tag (to me, there appear to have been a large number of claims this CD meeting)? What is your take on this today and how do you adjust your handicapping, if at all, when you see several 'favorites' scratch from a race (particularly a maiden race) for no apparent reason? Thanks!
Alan
It's a good question, and one that doesn't have an easy answer. In this case, I don't think the trainers of the scratched horses are afraid of a freak. This is a $50,000 maiden claimer, and all of the horses have pretty much been exposed. If this was a maiden special weight with several firsters, I would have my eyes glued to that toteboard in the opening flashes looking for the steam. I'd expect one of the firsters to take big money, and assume that the word is out.
Here, it's possible that it's coincidence. But, hey, it's not like Churchill is checking the validity of these scratches anyway, right?
Watch out for the hot strangers (shippers, firsters) when there are lots of scratches. In this case, I'm not sure anyone is really "live." To kick off the Pick 4, I'll go with the two horses you mentioned, Ride the Whiz and Ship's Piano, with a little bit more weight to the former.
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Let's try to knock off a couple of big favorites at Delta Downs on Saturday night:
Magnolia (Race 2):
Playing against Madison's Music may be folly, but I'll give it a shot. She's won her last five starts, is 10-29 in her career, and is 4-7 over the Delta surface. Lockola, right? Well, although her Beyer numbers tower over those of her opposition, Madison's Music seems like a need-the-lead type, and she'll face some pressure from stretchout sprinter (and my top selection) Coach Mike. That one will stretch out in the third start of the form cycle, and she looked like a new horse when whipping optional claimers going 5 panels on October 31. She won with absolute ease that day, and while she needs further improvement at a questionable distance, she's sharp, and will offer some value.
Selections: Coach Mike, Madison's Music
Gold Cup (Race 9):
Costa Rising will be the big favorite, and why not? He earned Grade 1-type Beyer Speed Figures in his last two races on dirt (118,115). He's perfect at Delta, and is 5-6 at the distance. He's not infallible, however, and he's returning off a short layoff following a disappointing performance on grass. Grand Minit has already beaten Costa Rising, and he did it fair and square in the Benoit Memorial. He looked Costa Rising in the eye when making his move on the turn, and steadily drew clear. Last time out, Grand Minit was returning from a short layoff, and may have needed that sprint start. He made a bold four wide move on the final turn only to tire in the stretch. He should be sharper for this assignment, and can upend the chalk.
Selections: Grand Minit, Costa Rising
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By the way, can anyone help David Hansen with his Australia superfecta question? I have no idea.
Let me know who you like this weekend.
PS: Good discussion on where you'd take your three-year-old to prep for the Derby. I'll give you my scenario next week.
No UAE Derby for anyone?
Have fun,
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on November 16, 2007 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
Picks for Churchill Downs for Saturday, November 17th:
1: Spanish Omelet, Fanfest, Lead Time
2: Do Run Run, Power and Achase, Ask the Lord
3: Cougar Cat, Coach Jimi Lee, Santana Strings
4: Hard Strike, Dynamalt, Face Nord
5: Star Crest, Princess BG, Butane
6: Weekend Gambler, Vicarian, Beechmont
7: Even Tempo, Diverse, Dazzie Darlin
8: Carnacks Choice, Mr. Nightliner, Elite Squadron
9: Criminologist, Argentina, Jade Queen
10: Chief Export, Mama's Lil' Mon, Swiss Reserve.
Good luck to all this weekend.
Posted by: Danny B. on November 16, 2007 at 02:09 PM
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Steve T.,
I see that Colonel John is entered in the Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood Park. I don't have the past performances but looking at the pedigrees I like Colonel John, Gallon and Overextended.
Who do you like?
Posted by: Calvin Carter on November 16, 2007 at 02:26 PM
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HOLLYWOOD PARK – Saturday (11-17-2007)
Race 1 – Professional Courtesy, Mountain Route, Jolympio
Race 2 – Bartok’s Bling, Aunt Pink, Rushen Heat
Race 3 – Foxy Danseur, Always In Style, Champagne Eyes
Race 4 – Victory’s Lady, Stress Free, My Manhattan
Race 5 – Ivy League Genius, Steppin Out Rose, La Chola
Race 6 – Masterful Miss, Elusive Legend, Rail Dancer
Race 7 – Call or Raise, Capi and Max, Caddymaster
Race 8 – Storm Military, Obrigado, Genre
Race 9 – Jen’s New Chapter, Funky Chanteal, Fly By
Calvin - I like Colonel John in the Real Quiet.
Posted by: Steve T on November 16, 2007 at 02:49 PM
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Steve T.,
I just found the past performances at Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance (thank you Alan).
Given a quick glance, I see my 3 picks have the highest Brisnet Prime Power rating. Also 2 races back Gallon finished 2nd beaten 3 lengths by Smarty Deb in the Gottstein Futurity at Emerald Downs.
From the pedigree angle, I would probably give Overextended the edge over Gallon.
Still looking over the pp's but would probably stick with my 3 selections unless you give me some added insight.
Thanks.
Posted by: Calvin Carter on November 16, 2007 at 02:58 PM
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Pat Valenzuela is back in action at Hollywood, so look out for him on frontrunners, he is the king of stealing races. He is riding Caddymaster on Saturday in the 7th, and has 5 mounts on Sunday.
Posted by: Steve T on November 16, 2007 at 03:10 PM
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The Holy Bull,
Was 9 furlongs, then 8.5, then 8 furlongs?
Now its a mile and 3/16 and switched to April. Good grief, no wonder C, Greg and I (otherwise knowledgeable handicappers) disagree about what the length of this race has been...
What a mess! Guess its not as much any one of us being misinformed, its more about GP unable to get its act together and stick to a format. Here's to hoping the race stays put now as is, for better or for worse, to save future generations to headache in researching past performances and times from this graded stakes race.
Looks like we all had our point, guys, kind of like the point on the head of whovever keeps morphing this race into something different every few years.
Greg, in a round-about way, your point is well taken about planning around the Holy Bull with a 2 year old...not an easy or wise move (who knows what or where it is syndrome?).
Posted by: vicstu on November 16, 2007 at 03:52 PM
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Here's a real interesting one on Saturday at Hollywood. I am interested on how others would approach him:
Caddymaster is running in a 25K claimer at 6F. Has multiple layoffs, last was 16 months. His first start off of that layoff he finished 6th at Del Mar in a race where the top three finishers all won subsequent races. He got a BSF of 76 off of that race. I would not expect him to do well at DM by reason of his poor turf start. He ran a 101 BSF in his second race (all told he has only run 4 times).
How do you look at this - with his history and the fact that they are willing to let him go for 25K? He gets Valenzuela back and this is not a stellar field. Ideas?
Posted by: Steve T on November 16, 2007 at 04:01 PM
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I don't get why people would be upset over Aqueduct canceling the card yesterday because of a sloppy track.
Everyone was upset over George Washington dying over the slop, but when it comes to a bunch of cheap claiming and maiden races, we must keep running?
Posted by: RJ on November 16, 2007 at 04:03 PM
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It looks like Greg, vicstu, and I were all right and wrong at the same time. Thanks for the clarification, Dan.
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Dan, I basically feel the same way about the current state of 'class' in American racing.
On the surface, the decline of n3x and n4x ALW races and the increase in 'stakes' races would suggest that the American game is becoming more like the European version:
MSW ~ maiden stakes
Claimers ~ selling races (rare)
Alw ~ unlisted stakes, handicap stakes
Ungraded/minor stakes ~ listed stakes, condition stakes
G2/G1 ~ group stakes
However, in reality, we're diverging from the Euro sport. The difference is competition. In Europe, there are far fewer tracks and far fewer races per day. At the upper levels, there's nowhere to run and hide. Having fewer opportunities and locations to run results in bigger fields, in general. For a horse to distinguish him/herself, they have to be good enough to beat the best more than once.
The other difference is that the Euros have non-graded 'condition' races which serve as specific preps for their Classics. For the 3YO Classics, for example, they reserve Group 1 status for the Guinneas races and the Derby/Oaks races. The preps are just preps... they're not prestigious races on their own. Here, we give G1 status to the Wood, BlueGrass, and FlaDerby, and give G2 status to the ArkDerby and several others. Don't forget the Jim Dandy and a Travers prep. These are usually good races, but everyone knows they're just preps and that the horses in the top half of the earnings list (for the Derby) are probably not going to give an all-out effort to win. Remember FriendsLake? I only do because I caught him at 30-1 when he won the FlaDerby... otherwise, he'd be pretty forgettable. He's a good example of a 'prep' Grade 1 winner who never did much else.
As a handicapping angle, 'class' needs to be re-thought. I think pedigree is the next angle which will deserve a facelift, as I mentioned a few days ago.
To some extent, pedigree goes hand-in-hand with class. The newer sires really don't prove much on the racetrack anymore, so their merits are questionable to begin with. Also, their shortened careers don't leave a lot of time to demonstrate ability on grass or at multiple distances. Wet tracks? They're quickly becoming a thing of the past. As rfb0318 pointed out, NYRA is the worst when it comes to cancelling cards. Most tracks are into the habit of sealing too. BTW RJ, I might be in a minority here, but I do not blame the track condition for George Washington's breakdown... I've always believed that slop should remain part of the game, whether it's a Tuesday or BC day.
Of course, the biggest change in the game affecting pedigree is the fact that all our decent stallion prospects are being sent overseas. Talent-wise, we're left with the bottom of the barrel. It's a shame that Japan got 95% of Sunday Silence's offspring. The other 4.999% ended up in Europe. And what about Godolphin? Many American fans hate what they're doing... I sometimes feel the same way, but I'm actually glad that SOMEONE is trying to save the breed from the drug-happy powers in the sport, which, unfortunately, is the USA. It's a good thing the sheiks have a global operation and want to win every race in the world because that means we'll at least be able to see some of the offspring of our horses.
How about speed? I think we've already ripped into Beyer's figures enough. I'll give him a rest. I suppose the bottom line is that we, as hanidcappers, sometimes have to rethink our methods and adapt to the game. The rules usually don't apply for very long.
Posted by: C on November 16, 2007 at 04:55 PM
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Will they really run the Cigar mile with 3 horses?? Can they come up with a bunch of "fillers" so it can actually be a race?? Perhaps it should lose its GII status with 3 horses/a field of fillers..........
Posted by: Stephanie on November 16, 2007 at 05:49 PM
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Steve T,
Trying to successfully handicap HOL7 is worse than your fiendish trivia questions. I would have said let's first see how PVal is doing at the track BUT this is his 1st scheduled race tomorrow! As a contest pick (Race 8 in the TVG contest), I would avoid PVal/Caddymaster - they will likely be overbet and the ML is already below my usual 5/1 threshold. If Caddymaster returns back to his maiden breaking Jan06 form (he won the SA msw almost wire-to-wire by 11L!), the others will all likely be running for 2nd...so he will be on any multi-race wagers. However, there are several other speed horses running, so for the contest I'd be interested in longershot closers, for example -> #10 Afleet Aloha (ML:8/1): so many angles (shipper for Art Sherman, 2nd-off claim, turf-to-cushion, route-to-sprint, class drop).
Posted by: Alan on November 16, 2007 at 06:34 PM
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I need a single for my Pick4 Friday night at Hollywood. I have it narrowed down to two horses in the 6th. I like Kalamata a little more than morning line fav. Intangaroo. I prefer Mullins over Sherlock, and he's sending this one out 2nd off the claim, freshened him up for two months, i like the work pattern of 4f, fast 5f, then backs off to a slower 5f followed by a slow 6f to build that stamina, and finally a fast 58and change 5f work to sharpen that speed. Also instead of sending her out at SA where she was training well, Mullins waits for Hollywood to start where her record is 4-2-1-1.
My only doubt is carrying her speed 6.5 f, and overall record of 12-2-3-2. So if she quits around the turn that would leave Intangaroo to fly by and win. Her beyer stands out, and she looks to be the form horse off her last race and workout since.
which would you single?
Posted by: tbone on November 16, 2007 at 07:11 PM
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C, in defense of Friends Lake, he got hurt in the Derby and never raced again. By A.P Indy, he was an unusual NY Bred, and I had him also in the Fl. Derby. He also hated the muddy darby won by Smarty.
Were you that person way down the track jumping up and down,? because there were very few people who had him at 37:1. Nice day at Gulfstream Park.
Posted by: Andrew Carpenter on November 16, 2007 at 10:50 PM
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Steve T
That race with Caddymaster is impossible for me. The horse obviously has some issues. But if he has anything in the tank he could beat these. If you can find anything to grab onto with a horse in this race you might as well play them because its anyones race. I ended up on Owen Roe Oneal. if you toss those bay meadows races i think he fits with these.
My play of the day would be Obrigado in the 8th. Go P.VAL!
Posted by: tbone on November 17, 2007 at 02:19 AM
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Steve T-
The Caddymaster race is an interesting race, and is part of the TVG contest- Fortunatly, with this contest you can change your selections up to 5 min. to post, but I'm guessing that the needed value won't be there so I "tentatively" went with Capi and Max. He's been around the money, topping it off with a win last, so he's in form, and at 8/1 (at least in the ML) offers fair "contest" value. However, depending on where I am in the contest, I could see using Caddymaster, especially at 6/1 or higher, but there are just too many questions to play him at 4/1.
Posted by: Stephen Taylor on November 17, 2007 at 07:20 AM
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Picks Saturday~ Looking for Naughty New Yorker to bounce back today, this race looks like there is enough speed to set him up his run and if he is anywhere near his ML 6-1, he looks like the days best to IMO. He's a must bet if someone can keep Barcola honest early on who was running on the speed favoring Delaware track which really makes him look better than what I estimate he is.
Posted by: Northern Dancer on November 17, 2007 at 09:40 AM
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Steve T (and all other "Illmanites" I meet at Vegas when one of us takes home the NHC),
If somehow you don't yet qualify, TwinSpires (www.twinspires.com) is offering another great way to make the NHC - at $250 an entry x 2 max entries. The mandatory race WP contest is December 15th. $10,000 to the winner AND the top 15 (out of only 500 entrants = 3%) go to the NHC - the next 5 go to the Horseplayer World Series. Overall, that's a great qualifying percentage!
Good luck today with the TVG contest!
Posted by: Alan on November 17, 2007 at 10:35 AM
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Stuyvesant H. at Aqueduct...
Barcola and Awfully Smart both seem hellbent on getting the lead, both seem to prefer Delaware Park, and also I think Utopia will be up closer today too, because obviously when they rated him in the Meadowlands Cup he didn't pick up his feet...
I like Naughty New Yorker, who had a bad go of it last time but before that was cycling forward, but more than him I like Who What Win...I think he'll settle in behind the speed horses into a really nice stalking trip, and he's had some layoffs this year, but the last time he went from back-to-back 92s up to a 102 and a similar 10pt jump here puts him right in the mix.
By the way this is the worst G3 race of all time.
In the Aqu finale, #7 My Princess Jess is 10-1 ML with some decent turf breeding but not a great 1st out trainer...I'll play her with Tagg's horse.
Posted by: Greg on November 17, 2007 at 11:39 AM
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good luck to anyone playing the tvg contest today. I got booted from the "show me the money" contest last night at Hollywood, so my confidence is down. These races seem tough, especially Aqueduct. Looks like all the good horses headed south, seeing a lot of 50's and 60's in the beyers. Can't win if you don't play, though.
Posted by: tbone on November 17, 2007 at 12:20 PM
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Regarding Who What Win I meant last time he went 4th race off a layoff.
Posted by: Greg on November 17, 2007 at 03:06 PM
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Picks for Weekend Stakes
Stuyvesant - Malibu Moonshine
Cardinal - Nottawasaga
Posted by: Steve T on November 17, 2007 at 04:00 PM
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My Manhattan is scratched in the 3rd, so let's take a flyer and replace her with #7 Yo Fuzzy at some nice odds, after all it is a 10K claimer.
Posted by: Steve T on November 17, 2007 at 04:52 PM
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I got tossed in the 'show' contest at Hollywood last nite as well. Less than 100 people left after only 4 days. Good luck to any bloggers still left in it.
Posted by: Dale on November 17, 2007 at 05:41 PM
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Hey C,
You would of been proud of me, I nailed the super in the first with a single $12 ticket (2/1-3/1-3-6-7/1-3-6-7) and because it was so cheap, I repeated the bet! Not bad $1270 for $24!
But wait, it gets better, I hit the super in the 4th with a single $8 ticket which I also repeated(5-9/5-9/5-7-8-9/3-5-7-8-9)
Only paid $127, but $254 for $16???
I am starting to get the hang of it. One thing I don't worry about is losing, if a horse gets in there that I didn't expect, oh well. I am capping them at $24 and running multiple combinations if I am unsure of the unders.
Who says you can't teach an old dog new tricks???
Posted by: Steve T on November 17, 2007 at 05:45 PM
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The move of the Woodward and Hopeful at Saratoga was to try to increase interest/traffic on the closing weekend of the meet. Attendance drops off significantly after the Travers, and NYRA wanted to put some key stakes on Labor Day weekend to increase the crowds.
While I agree that the Woodward and the Whitney are much alike, the same is often true of the Jim Dandy and the Travers, and no one seems to mind that.
Posted by: Teresa on November 17, 2007 at 08:46 PM
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Churchill- Sunday
Race 4- # 6 Dynaffair(4-1) ran even race 1st out and is stretching out and switching to grass for Werner. dam was Group 1 winner at 2 and connections have strong numbers with this kind. Like the 2,5 10 underneath
Race 5- #3 Ashlen Lord(12-1) this horse never took hold of polytrack or turf and barn calls up big rider. 2 nice works as well.
Race 8- #8 Gerivello(6-1) and #9 Delucie(4-1) i think asmussens horse is goin to be favored and his form looks strong, but hes been working at Turfway, which is not where asmussens first string go to(usually Keen) this horse also doesnt show the 4f breeze i like to see before asmussen horses return from layoffs. I like Gerivello a bit more in this spot as he is coming 2nd off a layoff and got a good tightener at Keen.
Aqueduct
Race 2- #6 Fashion Queen(3-1)- 2nd time blinkers, 2nd off layoff, and just missed in last race, also Hushion has been hot this meet.Ill use the 4,7 underneath.
Race 3- #7 Wild Wizard(4-1) Speed and fade after a couple turf routes and ill try here off a freshening. like the 8 and 2b underneath.
Race 4- #2 Carolyn's Cat (7-2) top connections, speed and fade, n cuts back a furlong.
Posted by: bigblue0710 on November 17, 2007 at 09:33 PM
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Why did I go with Intangaroo in the contest. WHY?!?! ::::tear:::
I had a sinking feeling when the race started she was too close to the pace.
Posted by: RJ on November 17, 2007 at 10:14 PM
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C, really a 1st class, right on post (11/16 4.55p.m.). Can't find fault or disagree with any statement you made.
I have felt subconsciously the same as you concerning Pedigree and Class. Just didn't have the guts to put it in writing. As a true horseman, or fan, or racing addict you really IMO have to ask yourself where is the breed going with so many of the top sires having such a shallow racing foundation. i.e. 2/3 race @ two, 4/6 @ three. As sometimes mentioned on this blog the remote possibility of drugs being involved. I will follow that with again IMO I don't thing drugs are a major player in the major races. Feel drugs are far more prevalant in the claiming and, 1x ALW races.
My new restaurant is really doing well. Running about 22% above what I expected. A few weeks ago I thought pouring over countless PP's, and reading Bris's Hdcp. Edge was work. Thats childs play compared to putting 16-18 hrs. in a Bar B Que joint daily. Hired a manager tonight that in a week or two should let me get back to what I'm best at; losing $ on the ponies.
Good Luck to All!
Posted by: johnny z on November 18, 2007 at 01:43 AM
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Teresa the Jim Dandy is clearly a prep for the Travers, carries half the purse and is run at 1 1/8 while Travers is 1 1/4. I see them as two very different races while it is hard to differentiate between the Whitney and Woodward- same distance and I believe Woodward is $500k and Whitney $750k.
I understand NYRA's thinking with this but along with Dan and I think almost everyone else that there are too many stakes. Why not run the Whitney where it is for $1 million?
Posted by: Al Hattab on November 18, 2007 at 07:38 AM
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Sunday Selections (11/18/07)
Hawthorne:
Race 4 Brave Ulysses
Race 5 Queen of India
Race 6 Iron Vow
Race 7 High Heritage
Race 8 Ugly But Cute
Race 9 Aloha Richter
Thanks /chicago gerry
Posted by: chicago gerry on November 18, 2007 at 10:33 AM
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Hi Dan--
With Gulfstream in self implode mode, what are the odds Brunetti resurrects Hialeah? After visiting GP last winter, and hearing all the bad stories coming out now, what will NY horsemen do with their stock if south Florida racing becomes unappealing and unprofitable?
Thanks,
Posted by: e_s on November 18, 2007 at 11:10 AM
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HOLLYWOOD PARK – Sunday (11-18-2007)
Race 1 – Gold Datnoid, Topper’s Gold, Bridled Honey
Race 2 – The Royal’s Court, Mosel, Cee’s The Answer
Race 3 – Udriga, La Swing, Butterfly Belle
Race 4 – Ex Caelis, Zardana, Pinata
Race 5 – Victory Pete, Hoods Up, Gayego
Race 6 – Onida, Angeletta, Lady Elizabeth
Race 7 – Sangaree, Stanford Gold, El Gato Malo
Race 8 – Steelin’, Del Mar Ticket, Elvinar
Race 9 – Colonel John, D. Double You, Overextended
Race 10 – Come Back Girl, Stage Sensation, Tuscan Princess
Posted by: Steve T on November 18, 2007 at 12:11 PM
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sunday picks-
Aqueduct-
I like Trouble Maker in the Gaily Gaily. Like the stretch out after 2 sprints after layoff. Beyers were over 90 in those, and kept up her figures when stretched out at gulfstream in the spring. Albertrani is hot right now, Velazquez isn't dominating at the meet, but he's still one of the better turf riders.
Late double- Trouble Maker/ Elusive Fox and Colbert Street
Hollywood late pick4-
7th- 1,4,5,6,8,9
top picks are Sangaree and El Gato Malo.
8th- Queens Full, Elinvar
9th- top pick pick Colonel John
back tickets with Gallon, Overextended, and Rivergrade Boy.
10th- If i make it this far i'm hoping the drop and layoff does the trick for Stage Sensation, or first timer Swishing Tiger can make it back to back nitecap winners for craig dollase.
Anyone do good in the tvg contest yesterday. I caught Hunting and Owen Roe Oneill for about a $63 dollar total. At least it gave me a reason to make selections for the last 2 races in the contest ( if my longshot had won that last race i'd had a chance at vegas at least). I think the winner had $122. That's pretty impressive for only 10 races with no real bombs ( longest price was 15-1 i think).
Posted by: tbone on November 18, 2007 at 01:45 PM
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JohnnyZ,
thanks, but maybe FriendsLake wasn't the best example, as Andrew pointed out. I didn't recall exactly what happened to him. Anyway, there are several other G1 'prep' winners who didn't do much else. At the same time, these horses retire so fast nowadays that it's hard to guess what might have been for most of them.
Steve,
good going with those supers. Your second ticket basically required you to be correct about a 5-9 exacta box. The payoff wasn't great, but it was an improvement over the actual exacta, which paid about $12 per $1. The difference between the two is that a decent price won the first one. I usually skip the super in cases where I like a short price to win or like 2 favs to run 1-2. That's just me, there's no right or wrong. You know what you're doing, so just keep doing it.
Posted by: C on November 18, 2007 at 02:17 PM
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Oh BTW, Johnny,
I almost forgot... congrats on the restaurant.
Posted by: C on November 18, 2007 at 02:23 PM
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Value play of day-
Hollywood 3rd-
Newport Topper should stalk and pounce at 6f on turf under P Val.
Trifectas- 1/4,5/4,5,6
1/4,5,6/4,5
Posted by: tbone on November 18, 2007 at 02:36 PM
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Steve T . Nice pick at Hollywood ( Sunday ) Race # 8 i ended up with a 10$ ex and 10 to win and place.------------Joe
Posted by: Joe F on November 18, 2007 at 08:13 PM
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Steve T-
thanks for posting your picks. i put Steelin' on my backup ticket and got the pick 4. nice way to end the week.
tbone
Posted by: tbone on November 18, 2007 at 10:31 PM
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Joe,
No way was I expecting him to go off at that price (18-1), look at his form once they moved him to turf. One of those weird things, but glad I could help you cash! I hit the Tri but missed the Super (had the 4-5-6-8 in the 4th spot).
Posted by: Steve T on November 19, 2007 at 02:35 AM
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There's a new sheriff in town, and his name is Colonel John. Watch out for this one. His Real Quiet was a romp against some nice horses in an outstanding time (because he ran at Hollywood that probably means a BSF of 77...). Leave this one off of your Derby list at your own risk.
His Dam, Sweet Damsel, is by Turkoman out of Grande Dame - nice double cross of Princequillo. Distance should not be an issue with Tiznow on top (Bold Ruler and Princequillo)and Sweet Damsel on the bottom.
Hey Alan - side bet on Mambo in Seattle vs. Colonel John???
Posted by: Steve T on November 19, 2007 at 04:14 AM
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Steve T,
I'm not sure if I am allowed to side-bet on Mambo in Seattle since I am heavily into secret negotiations with Lane's End over a private purchase of the future Derby winner (BTW, can I "borrow" some of your SUPER winnings???) For some strange reason, Farish doesn't want to sell his horse - he keeps muttering that he "has found another Ap Indy..."
Trivia question of the day (should be easy - answer at the end): What do high priced sale horses Ap Indy (as a yearling) and The Green Monkey (as a 2yo-in-training) NOT have in common??
I remember Colonel John from our "DMR-poly pedigree+performance" days when he just missed breaking his maiden as a FTS on PacificClassic Day! He has great potential and should have no trouble with the Classic distance -> BUT he doesn't have the class (tail-female family) of next year's Derby winner! I got the "reverse Bernardini/Mineshaft cross" (ApIndy with Mr Prospector mare -> instead Mr Prospector stallion with FS to Ap Indy....)
Colonel John's Beyer isn't out yet for yesterday's race. Since NOV7, no HOL horse has had a Beyer > 100. Before you start going too crazy, not many winners are reaching that "level" since then:
TRACK WINNING BEYER > 100 (since NOV7)
HOL 0
AQU 4
CD 1
CRC 1
GG 0
HAW 0
WO 1
TRIVIA ANSWER: Ap Indy was the highest priced sale horse ($2.9 mil as a yearling at JUL90KEE) ever to actually make his money back ($2.979 mil) at the racetrack!! Let alone, how much money Ap Indy has made at stud!! Sometimes it pays to pay for the best... (hear that Angelos???)
Posted by: Alan on November 19, 2007 at 09:42 AM
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tbone,
That was 100% karma - I ended up hitting the Super in race 7 on Saturday because I used your pick (Owen Roe O'Neill) on my backup ticket! It was a race that I was about to be screwed by the 4th place finisher until Mr. O'Neill came from nowhere to win and hook me up.
Posted by: Steve T on November 19, 2007 at 09:47 AM
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Alan,
I actually like Colonel John's female line better than MIS, but we shall see - both were brought along nicely in their two year old campaigns and their breeding says they should be able to cross the 2 year old chasm to nice 3 year olds.
As far as the BSF's I have already dropped all the way down to amused from outraged on the subject. They really don't mean anything anymore - they could give Colonel John a 120 or a 60 and it wouldn't matter. I am using your philosophy of just waiting until they ship East and then using it to my advantage.
An as far as Angelos actually spending money, THAT qualifies as delusional - the only money he is spending will be for pay toilets at Camden (sorry I probably just gave him an idea).
Posted by: Steve T on November 19, 2007 at 10:10 AM
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If the Florida three-year-olds haven't distinguished themselves by the time the Holy Bull rolls around, then they're not going to contend in the Triple Crown races anyway.
With all due respect Dan, the owners of Charismatic would have disagreed with you strongly.
Posted by: ElAngelo on November 19, 2007 at 10:30 AM
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Dan,
I think there needs to be a change in the Graded stakes criteria. Here are some ideas I have on the whole mess:
1. All Grade 1 races must be for a minimum of $1M, Grade 2 races must be for a minimum of $500K and Grade 3 races for a minimum of $250K. This alone would get rid of 2/3 of them.
2. All graded stakes are set weight events without any breaks - Grade 1's carry 128, Grade 2's carry 124, and Grade 3's carry 120.
3. Bring back the N3X and N4X races, it's where most of these belong anyway.
4. Use of 4 year old and up criteria on major races to entice owners to keep their horses in training.
5. Stop changing the damned names of the races, and for god sakes drop the corporate crap "The Kentucky Derby by Yum Brands". That's like saying we're having Chateaubriand for dinner and Jello for dessert.
6. Run more 10F events, if that is indeed our classic distance, then let's see more than 3 or 4 per meet. Put a 10F race for three year olds in March or April.
What say ye? Do you agree, or am I becoming as cranky as C?
Posted by: Steve T on November 19, 2007 at 10:51 AM
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Steve,
Hey... cranky?!? Would you settle for feisty? OK then, cranky it is!
Some good ideas, although points 2 and 6 would prevent most connections from entering. I really like 3-5... I don't know that 1 is totally necessary.
The problem is that each individual track is free to run whatever races they want. Whether or not they get graded is up to the graded stakes committee. I guess the NTRA is the closest thing American racing has to a governing body. Aside from the triple crown and BC, there's no fixed seasonal stakes series or progression. In other words, a trainer can find a G1 at some nearby track during any month of the year. Someone has to win those races.
I'd like to see the year divided into early and late. Then I'd have specific divisions: dirt/turf, sprint/intermediate/route, male/female, 2/3/4up. For each combination, I'd run 1 G1 in the early part of the year, and 1 G1 during the second half. The prep races for each series would become G2/G3s. The triple crown and BC races would be the only exceptions. 2YOs would not have any G1s except for the BCJuv anf BCJF, and I'd be tempted to actually combine those 2 for the BC. Look at War Pass: he already has retirement plans after winning some 2YO G1s. That's like being eligible to retire at 30.
No more overnight stakes... bring back n3x and n4x allowances and high-level claimers and keep the optional claimers for horses who already outran their conditions, but aren't good enough to hack it at the graded stakes level. Papi Chullo would fit into this category.
Posted by: C on November 19, 2007 at 11:43 AM
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sorry for the double-post,
Actually, why not just have 1 early-season G1 per division and let the BC take care of the late-season G1s.
Under this system, we'd remember who the G1 winners were every year. To tell the truth, I don't even remember who won that silly 2YO BC Turf race last month.
Posted by: C on November 19, 2007 at 11:58 AM
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I see they're going to try The Green Monkey on turf in the 4th on Wednesday with Gomez up. Any chance he could run better on grass?
Posted by: Annie on November 19, 2007 at 01:15 PM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 