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FormBlog | November 30, 2007
Retired mares, Dylan Thomas, picks
DL and retirement updates:
*Speaking of injured horses, Furioso Star (lung infection), a horse not on our DL, will make his return to the races in Friday's seventh race at Hollywood. Trained by Bill Spawr, he finished eighth in his most recent start (July 21, Del Mar). Furioso Star earned a 94 Beyer Speed Figure two starts back when winning his maiden at Santa Anita.
*A. P. Indy will get some nice mares in 2008. Both Balance and Pool Land have been retired from racing, and will be bred to A.P. Indy. Here are their lifetime past performances:
Download pool_land.PDF
Download Balance.PDF
*First-time starter Kearns Point is scheduled to make his career debut at Hollywood on Saturday for trainer Brian Koriner. According to Brad Free in Saturday's DRF, the With Approval colt tied up after suffering from mild stomach cramps.
*In Summation (illness) is scheduled to return from the DL in Sunday's Vernon O. Underwood at Hollywood Park.
...Re new sires-I think Cactus Ridge and Flatter both show promise...
Mike Soper
Thanks for reminding me about Flatter, Mike. I'm a big fan of this son of A.P. Indy. Keep an eye on these two promising juveniles by Flatter:
Mad Flatter won his maiden in his second lifetime start at Churchill Downs with an 82 Beyer.
Indy's Alexandra will try to make it 3-3 in Saturday's Three Ring Stakes at Calder.
***
Given that Street Sense would be one of the first sons of Street Cry to retire to stud, what do you think that the chances of him doing well are? I personally think that Hard Spun would be a better sire, but you never know...
Chase
Street Sense should be okay. He was precocious enough to win his second start at two going short, and his accomplishments in the Breeders' Cup and Kentucky Derby speak for themselves. He has a successful sire (Mr. Greeley) in his female family, and figures to be bred to strong mares.
Hard Spun is from the family of Little Current and Chateaugay, and should do well at stud as a son of Danzig with miler speed.
***
How do you think Giacomo will do as a sire with Adena Springs behind him?? He's in tough being in the same group as Bernardini and Bluegrass Cat, perhaps an unfashionable pedigree but as someone who cashed in big(just because I was a huge Holy Bull fan and I loved Giacomos run in the Hol Fut.) on Derby day, I would love to see another KY stallion by Holy Bull be sucessful along with Macho Uno.
stephanie
If he doesn't work out as a stallion, it won't be for lack of trying. Frank Stronach will give him every chance to be a good stallion at Adena Springs. I'm just not convinced that he's a good fit in today's speed-crazy market. He should inject much-needed stamina into a pedigree, but he wasn't very precocious, and was a bit of a plodder. There is tons of European turf and distance influences in his female family so perhaps he'll be a sleeper as a turf sire.
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Curious in Dan or anyone else's thoughts on this. Is this just the Brits being the proud horseplayers that they are, or could something have been amiss? It does not add up and you have to feel for the horse and the connections. I don't think its a stretch to say that on his best day, DT would give Admire Moon all that he could handle, and then some.
svhill
I don't think there's anything nefarious going on here. Rules are rules in Japan, and I think that the JRA should be applauded for not having two sets (one for the stars, and one for everyone else). The horse didn't test negative for EVA, and thus wasn't allowed to participate in the race.
I don't think the Japanese were afraid of Dylan Thomas, and I don't think the horses that will line up against him in the Hong Kong Vase are shaking in their shoes either. He's a very good horse. You can't question his accomplishments. But, is he really the best horse in the world? Was he even the best horse in Europe this year? Manduro beat him in the Prince of Wales's Stakes earlier in the year, and he might have been Europe's best before being injured. Dylan Thomas looked like a beaten horse turning for home in the Irish Champion Stakes before roaring back to beat stablemates Duke Of Marmalade (1-9 lifetime), and Red Rock Canyon (still a maiden after 11 starts!!!).
Then, he staggers like a drunken sailor in the stretch of the Arc, and is all-out to hold off 66-1 shot Youmzain.
Blame the soggy turf conditions all you want in the BC, but doesn't the best horse in the world at least finish third in the Turf?
I don't know why I'm so anti-Dylan Thomas (I picked him in the Arc on this blog - perhaps my last winner), but his victory that day just rubbed me the wrong way:
From the 10/11 Blog:
It looks like Dylan Thomas will come for the BC Turf although I'm not sure I want any part of him at a short price after his rumbly-stumbly Arc win.
From BC Day Blog:
I don't want Dylan Thomas at a short price. I'll use him in multi-race wagers, but let him beat me in the win pool. I just wasn't impressed with his Arc win. He drifted ten paths in the stretch, and almost got beat by a huge bomb. Now, he's being asked to come back in three weeks after being shipped halfway across the planet, and he has to win the Turf on less-than-ideal footing.
Let's see what happens in Hong Kong, but you may want to try and beat him there as well.
***
...Even though I love to learn horse pedigrees, and thoughtfully apply them,
How do you measure heart? Nice to see everyone's comments.
SR Vegas
Didn't SV Vegas bring up heart? Considering the absolutely fierce heart and determination that Hard Spun, Street Sense and Curlin displayed throughout this year, is that something that can be passed through to progeny-or is it a crap shoot?
Sun G
It's impossible to quantify heart or class, but you sure can see it on the racetrack. Affirmed showed heart when he beat back Alydar every step of the way in the Belmont. "Heart" is courage, intestinal fortitude, and the indomitable will to win despite adversity.
You can't put a speed figure, or pace number on it, but astute breeders will send their mares to stallions that showed that quality on the track. It certainly can't hurt.
Can "heart" be passed on from generation to generation? That's tough to say. The stallion is only part of the genetic equation. What if the mare had a tendency to quit? Can heart overcome an inadequate conformation, or simply a weak pedigree? I don't know the answers to these questions, or whether any of the mysteries of breeding racehorses have answers. I'd rather breed to a stallion that showed courage than to one that may not have wanted it as much.
***
Can anyone provide some background information on Benjamin C. Warren? He consistently names his horses after himself, and employs Jorge Gutierrez who has a very low win percentage. Often uses Jose Valdivia, Brice Blanc, Corey Nakatani as jocks. Does anyone have his stats as an owner and win percentage? Seems like over other soCal race has a Warren's (INSERT ANOTHER WORD HERE) but his horses rarely win!
PP
According to our database, his lifetime record as an owner stands at 74-824 (9%, $1.29 ROI).
***
Some Q & D picks for Saturday:
*Tropical Turf: Host, Magic Mecke, Minister's Joy, Giant Wrecker
*What a Pleasure: Check It Twice, Coal Play, Victory Cafe (2yo by Victory Gallop seeks third straight
*My Charmer: J'ray (despite the fact she's starting to remind me of Cosmonaut and Sun King)
*Garland of Roses: Control System, More Angels, Karakorum Starlet
*Three Ring: Indy's Alexandra (think this daughter of Flatter is the real deal)
More importantly, who do you like this weekend? I'd like to know.
Take care,
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on November 30, 2007 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
Dan,
I believe that “Heart” can be passed from generation to generation because the ancestor of most of the modern day thoroughbred champions (Nearco) had such a heart.
Heart, the will, the courage, to win no matter what the odds, and pedigree go hand in hand to make the true champion and from tbheritage.com here’s what Federico Tesio, who owned Nearco, had to say about his champion who was undefeated in 14 starts:
NEARCO (br.c. 1935 out of Nogara by Havresac II) was bred in Italy and owned by Federico Tesio. It is said that Tesio tried to get his mare to Fairway, but Lord Derby refused to grant a season, so Nogara went to his full brother Pharos instead. Undisputed champion of his crop at two and three in Italy, Nearco's final start was in France in the Grand Prix de Paris, which he won in demonstrative style, capping an unblemished career of fourteen starts. Tesio recognized that his champion was not a true stayer, but owned such electrifying brilliance and nervous energy, that his class and heart carried him beyond his physical limits.
Posted by: Calvin Carter on November 30, 2007 at 02:25 PM
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FYI: It's POURING here and the turf at Hollywood won't be firm if it's anything like this down the hill. I didn't handicap for rain so must return to my notes for tomorrow.
Vernon O. Underwood: If Greg's Gold doesn't come back 100% from the BC (though he's worked well since) and if In Summation needs one, then Double Action could be interesting, hopefully at a price.
Posted by: Kyri on November 30, 2007 at 02:41 PM
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I think Santa Anita will get to test their drainage system today...
Posted by: Steve T on November 30, 2007 at 03:48 PM
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I'm pretty sure I've read that the "enlarged heart gene" is passed along though the dams side. I beleive they've identified some of the mares in particular that have done this-but I can not remember now who they are.
Posted by: Stephanie on November 30, 2007 at 04:10 PM
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Stephanie-
The X-factor (the extra large heart) is passed throught the female line. The colts can get it from their dams, but can only pass it to their daughters. For whatever reason, their colts can't get it. The mares, however, can pass it to both sexes. That is why Secretariat was not an excellent sire (admittedly he wasn't bad, but after his racing career, no one's going to consider it "great"), but he was a phenomonal broodmare sire, because his daughters could pass on the X factor.
Posted by: Chase on November 30, 2007 at 07:17 PM
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I was looking at some pedigrees, and a name kept coming up-Ajax. I've never even heard of him. Is this a coincidence, or is he actually influential (somewhat... How influential can he be)?
Can anyone provide me with some information on the Australian Peter Pan? Supposedly he won from 7 1/2 furlongs to 2 1/2 miles. Talk about versatile!!
Posted by: Chase on November 30, 2007 at 08:43 PM
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The only POURING I saw today was money out of my wallet!!
Well....tomorrow's another day and here are some stakes picks as well as my CRC All-Stakes P4:
CRC8 MyChrmrH-G3 (9f T 3upF&M): #9 Fantastic Shirl (ML:4/1) -> has lost to several of the better turf fillies this year - none, with the exception of likely fav, #11 J'ray, are here today. Last 4th place effort a product of yielding turf and a slow pace. A repeat of the NbldmslH 2nd place to DanceAwayCapote the prior race should be enough to win today... (WP#9; P4:#2,#9,#11)
CRC9 ThreeRing100K (8.5f 2yoFil): #5 Silk Ridge -> hopefully #6 Ariel Bright won't battle too hard for the lead. All the others in the race are closers - but Dan, will include "Illman's real deal" #1 Indy's Alexandra in my P4 ticket since I trust (foolishly??) you... (WP#5; P4:#1,#5)
CRC10 WhatAPlesr100K (8.5f 2yo): #5 Coal Play (ML:9/5) -> Broke maiden at 8f and bred for even more added distance. Why isn't Wise Answer running in this race? (WP#5; P4:#3,#5)
CRC11 TropTrfH-G3 (9f T 3up): #2 Minister's Joy (ML:12/1) -> it bothers me that the famous "psychiatric handicapper" Mike Watchmaker picks him also...but as Watchmaker himself would likely tell you from his 'homemade' poly-pedigree stats, the KEE poly 7th place finish in the Fayette can be excused.:-) 9f appears to be Minister Joy's ideal distance on the turf, and perhaps is now 0.5-1.0f too long for #1 Host? #6 Go Between, on the other hand, may want to return to poly for more Graded stakes wins. (WP#2; P4: #1,#2,#6)
The straight play $1 All-Stakes P4 of #2,#9,#11/#1,#5/#3,#5/#1,#2,#6 = $36.
Good luck tomorrow!!
Posted by: Alan on November 30, 2007 at 08:46 PM
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I think that Precious Kitten deserves the Eclipse over Lahudood. Precious Kitten fired every time and was beyond consistent all year long. Can she really be blamed for he F&M turf loss??Lahudood was a Who? horse untill her BC prep and her BC win. I know Eclipse voters look strictly at the BC but I think it would be a real shame if Precious Kitten didn't get the award.
Posted by: Stephanie on November 30, 2007 at 09:36 PM
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HOLLYWOOD PARK – Saturday (12-01-2007)
Race 1 – Gold Datnoid, La Mandonna, Suisse Movement
Race 2 – Apalachee Tiger, Yes He’s a Pistol, Bills Paid
Race 3 – General Bueno, Prince of Gold, Oceanus
Race 4 – Lil Lea, Forever Irish, Bestatit
Race 5 – Palladian General, Man to Man, Kalgoorlie
Race 6 – Coast Guard, Talk of a Cat, Street Royale
Race 7 – Tropic Storm, Snow Fighter, Texas Voyager
Race 8 – Grain of Truth, Tough Tiz’s Sis, Sugar Shake
Race 9 – Cavanal, Chop House George, Vital Force
Posted by: Steve T on November 30, 2007 at 09:43 PM
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Vicstu,
Just want to add a few personal comments about the Magna dismissal of Lou Raffetto.
Lou took me to Laurel in college in 1969 for my first trip to the track. He worked summers at Monmouth. He's had every job at the track from valet park to racing secretary. He's been a trainer, owner, GM, racing secretary etc. I don't think any racing executive has more experience and perspective.
As most commentary has acknowledged. Magna has once again demonstrated a total ignorance of the racing business. Nice column by Beyer, which we all know is rare.
Posted by: Mike Soper on November 30, 2007 at 09:46 PM
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Alan,
The weekday cards at Hollywood are a little rough to say the least. Today was the first time I have watched the races on wet Cushion, and my impression was that it was damn tough to beat speed on the surface. Anyone else who watched todays races see the same thing?
Posted by: Steve T on November 30, 2007 at 11:29 PM
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Mike S- I love how racing people pay deference to those that have "worked their way up from the bottom". Lou Raffeto, Kenny Noe, etc. In my view these people are the problem with racing- we have no smart people running the game. I have nothing against Lou Raffeto or your comment whatsoever, but how many times do you see good businesspeople involed in the game. Our game is so poor that the people we can recruit to run it are probably some of the worst managers money can buy. So the only thing we can latch onto is that so-and-so "had great relationships with the horsemen". Haven't we all figured out by now that the horsemen are the enemies of the bettors?
Posted by: Al Hattab on November 30, 2007 at 11:37 PM
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Calder 8 Saturday
#4 Redaspen (10-1ML) is the pick...There should be a fast pace, which will help her and others...Her best race of the year was against Karen's Caper on firm turf at Monmouth, and Karen's Caper would drown this field IMO...Her finishing times have been very strong, and I think she'll be able to save ground in a race where many of the top choices are drawn wide...There are 2 issues, the layoff being the biggest, but she's had 2 mile works to get ready, and the low % connections should help the price. IMO worth a few bucks.
Posted by: Greg on November 30, 2007 at 11:46 PM
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Al Hattab,
With all due respect, you're simply wrong. Just because somebody is a good manager in what ever sense that means, business school or whatever, doesn't mean they can effectively strike the balance of pleasing multiple constituents in this unique industry. I don't know how you define "smart", but in this industry, if you're running a racetrack, you've got a very complex job of pleasing multiple constituents that will ultimately effect the racing product presented to the public within certain prescribed constraints that you must deal with.
You could take some high IQ clown from Harvard business school and they would be clueless yet somehow confident in their abilities, perhaps even arrogant, and then destroy things (see Stronach businesses). In this industry, bottom level experience and relationships are invaluable to truely "getting" this business and these are exactly the people we should be drawing from to run these businesses...
Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on December 01, 2007 at 12:46 AM
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The extra large heart trait, where hte heart is physically large without being pathologically malformed, is not the same as the "heart" described above as determination/grit/desire to win, is probably an X-linked trait--that is, due to a gene on the X-chromosome. Stallions pass only a Y onto their colts, so can't pass any X-linked trait onto their colts, just to their fillies.
Other things that are passed on only by the mare and not the stallion include mitochondria, the metabolic powerhouse of the cell, and although I've never read any research about this, it seems like it must be important in the transmission of stamina.
Posted by: DEB on December 01, 2007 at 02:58 AM
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Steve T,
I am glad you said something because I got cleaned last night. In Austria, I get Hollywood from 9:30-1AM and had the dual disadvantage of NOT checking the weather and our satellite link went down- clouds it is gone, clear we have pictures. It seems it plays like speedy dirt track in the rain.
I posted earlier, but has anyone done a crunch of dosage with synth tracks?
Cheers, Jason in Austria
Posted by: Jason in Austria on December 01, 2007 at 07:54 AM
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Steve T,
There are no excuses for me - just a bad day on both coasts!! Just gotta climb out of the temporary "money pit"...
Speaking of a potential "money pit", the HOL folks must have told SA that the SUPER was getting too easy for you to hit!! Did you see this?:
"The board approved a new wager to be offered at the upcoming Santa Anita meet. To win, a bettor must select the top five finishers in a race in order. It will carry over on days when it is not hit."
Posted by: Alan on December 01, 2007 at 08:04 AM
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Did you see the contest Twin Spires is running to get a berth in 'Vegas? The unique thing about it is that it's based soley on picking winners (or horses in the money) without regards to price. (5 points for 1st, 3 for 2nd, 1 for third) and it's kind of a challenge to handicap without regards to value so I'm gonna get "chalky" with the exception of the tiebreaker (12th) The key here is J'Ray for me who a lot of "experts" are picking against as well as the What A Pleasure where Check it Twice and Coal Play are 8/5 and 9/5 respectivly. (I was originally gonna use Check it Twice but changed my mind (kiss of death!!!!) when I noticed that Check It Twice would be trying to go 1 1/16 on two days rest! Coal City, J'Ray, Straight Money Man in the tiebreaker 12th (love trainer stats first turf, and really don't want to be too dependent on a tiebreaker)then VIVA LAS VEGAS!
Posted by: Stephen Taylor on December 01, 2007 at 08:15 AM
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Al Hattab,
While I don't disagree in general with your comment, I think you're lumping Mr. Raffetto with the wrong group. This is the official who tried a lower takeout this year; who brought Cigar to Suffolk; who put together some of the greatest cards for bettors in Maryland in the 1980s on International day-he was one of the first racing secretaries to card multiple stakes and top allowance races together in one day. These were aimed at the bettor. While I think you have the right idea, you've got the wrong guy.
Posted by: Mike Soper on December 01, 2007 at 08:34 AM
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I've been following the blog for some time, just never posted.
I don't bet races, but I like to follow racing.
I was wondering what you guys thought of the X factor. Here is a decent article on it:
http://www.spiletta.com/UTHOF/hippology/xfactor.html
Thanks!
Amanda.
Posted by: Amanda on December 01, 2007 at 11:57 AM
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I'm taking a little break from playing the ponies but i still did a little handicapping for the Calder P4.
Race 8)#8 Bayou's Lassie, #11 Jray, #10 Annabill
Race 9)#1 Indy's Alexandra
Race 10)#3 Check it Twice, #5 Coal Play
Race 11)I had to make some adjustments because I like Fishy Advice to win right back but he's scratched so now my selections are #2 Minister's Joy, #3 Ballast, #6 GO Between, and I may throw #4 National Captain.
BTW-Why are all the AE's not running if there is now room for them?
Good Luck to everyone today!! The Cats have a big game today at 2 against obnoxiously overhyped UNC so here's hoping they can pull off the upset!!! GO Cats and best of luck to you if any of your teams are playing in the big football games today!
(I know, lots of exclaimation points but I'm pumped up!-another one for good measure)
Posted by: g or g on December 01, 2007 at 01:36 PM
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Mike- Like I said my comment wasn't directed towards Raffetto but more the idea that good racing managers are the people that can relate to the horsement. I think your last comment provides more support as to why Raffeto is a good racing guy more than anything Beyer wrote. I didn't have a grasp of his history from the perspective of promoting the game and his ability to serve the fans- the true constituents of the game- and not only the horsemen. In the short run the horsemen want to race for the most money against the easiest competition, completely opposite of what the bettors want. Just ask Bobby Frankel.
Thanks for the add'l info. on Raffetto.
Maybe they can pick him up in Jersey (oh wait, we have Kulina- another guy who is in his role because he's been around for ever).
And Blue Horseshoe- "certain prescribed constraints"? Are you kidding me? There are a MILLION constraints it seems. Just ask Dennis Dowd and Charles Hayward. These guys can't run a business because of the politics.
Posted by: Al Hattab on December 01, 2007 at 03:06 PM
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Stephanie, Chase, Deb,
I’m sorry if my original posting was misinterpreted. Nearco did not have an enlarged heart.
Nearco had the “Heart of a Champion”; “The Spirit of a Champion”; “The Eye of the Tiger”; whatever you want to call it.
Like Dan said, Nearco had the “Heart…courage, intestinal fortitude, and the indomitable will to win despite adversity.”
And I believe that same “Heart” has been passed to many of his descendents.
Posted by: Calvin Carter on December 01, 2007 at 03:18 PM
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Steve T-
Just wondering if your picks for today took into account that they were going to be off the turf.
for what its worth I really like tough tizs sis in the feature.
thanks, tbone
Posted by: tbone on December 01, 2007 at 04:31 PM
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I hit the late pick 4 at Calder and didn't even know it. I knew I had the two favorites for under $100 payoffs and watched in disgust as the 9 wires them all at big odds.
When I went to make my final bet of the day on a Pick 3 at Hollywood my balance was up over $400. I had just played a Super at turfway that I thought hadn't come in, so I thought maybe there had been some dq's or something and i had hit it.
So I go to my wager review page and there's the 9 on one of my Calder Pick 4's. I played multiple tickets, so not only did I have to mistakenly hit the 9, but also had to do it on the only ticket that stayed alive to the last race.
I'm sure you all have a story like this, but this is the first time its given me this kind of payoff.
Posted by: tbone on December 01, 2007 at 05:42 PM
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C,
I was reading the other day that the $1.00 superfecta payoff is first calculated on a .10 cent base then multiplied X 10. I assume this is only when there is a .10 cent super is offered.
Apparently there is a glitch in the total superfecta pool amount reported by Equibase when there are no $1.00 superfecta winners but only one .10 cent superfecta winner or winners.
An example of this was on November 3rd at Hawthorne Race Course when the entire pool of 37,000 was taken by one .10 cent superfecta player. It doesn't effect the payout in that situation just the reporting of the pool amount.
Also, it was pointed out that the $1.00 superfecta bettor could save on takeout if he/she created a .10 cent superfecta and punched up 10 tickets. I have done this with win tickets where I will make out two $100.00 tickets rather than one $200.00 ticket.
Thanks/ chicago gerry
Posted by: chicago gerry on December 01, 2007 at 06:53 PM
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I was looking through the pedigrees of both Curlin and Rags to Riches for the X-factor gene (thank you for the link, Amanda, it was very helpful), and I traced it back to Regulus (the broodmare sire of Eclipse) through Curlin's sire, so he has a chance of having the X-factor, and I traced it back to Regulus through both A P Indy and Better Than Honour. Therefore, Rags to Riches is could be homozygous for the X-Factor. That would make her an unbelievable broodmare as well.
Interestingly, when I was looking, A P Indy, Better than Honour, and Curlin, none of their potential X-factor genes were through Eclipse. I traced them all through Regulus, twice through his daughter Rachel, who was the dam of Highflyer, and once through Brown Regulus, a daughter of Regulus.
Posted by: Chase on December 01, 2007 at 07:45 PM
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What kind of oats is Romance Is Diane eating??
Posted by: RJ on December 01, 2007 at 07:58 PM
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Can someone tell me what is so wrong with the new Gulfstream.I have not been to the old or new racetrack.Unfortunately I will not be able to make it to south florida this winter.Considering the amount of money that was invested into this venue,it can't be that bad can it?It sounds like everybody is jumping on the negative bandwagon just because it's fashionable.After almost 200M$ spent,there must be some good things about it,isn'there?
Posted by: Wally on December 01, 2007 at 08:10 PM
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To All:
This is my favorite blog anywhere. Thanks to everyone who takes part, especially our host.
Quick story since we are sharing them: Jan 2001, Monarchos had just broken his maiden at the Gulf. I liked the connections so I asked my brother-in-law, who was headed to Vegas for a bachelor party, to lay down a $100 future bet for me. I figured to get him in the 100-150/1 range. My bro-in-law comes back with my $100, and I'm like, "What happened?" His response: "Couldn't find him." We all know what happened. Monarchos blitzed the FL Derby and then broke the mythical 2:00 barrier for 12 furlongs in the KY Derby. I haven't forgiven him or made another future bet since. So just this week, I'm reading Haskin and he's talking about another son of Maria's Mon (out of an Easy Goer mare) who may have some ability, and the thoughts "Karma", "Payback" and "Finally" immediately come to mind. And then Kyri goes and whispers "Monba" on this blog Friday. That cemented me. No idea if this horse can run, but he is definitely my sentimental play. I've got another friend in Vegas (not my bro-in-law) who's going to try and get down on Monba for me ($100 hopefully in the 150-200/1 range). Go Monba!
Posted by: owenized on December 01, 2007 at 08:25 PM
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Ah Day is knocking down the barn be on the watch for the King Leatherbury trainee.
Posted by: asidero on December 01, 2007 at 11:09 PM
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tbone,
No, I actually thought they would run on the turf. Funny, if I did change my picks I would have been off Kalgoorlie (the winner) in the 5th.
Alan,
A Pentafecta? I am getting killed on the tris and supers! Here's my "super day" today:
2nd - didn't have Storms of Life.
4th - the ONLY horse I picked that came in was Bestatit.
5th - didn't have the win or show.
6th - hit the super along with everybody in California ($177).
7th - no American Officer.
9th - didn't have the winner.
Nothing on Friday, Thursday I missed everything, including the eighth where I had the 41/1 shot, but didn't have the 5/1 winner... Wednesday I hit one for $782 and one for $738. Not exactly like last week, but so it goes. I am getting real tired of these short fields. But there is always tomorrow, as hope does spring eternal.
This is a tough time of year to handicap, lots of quick turnarounds and first time off of layoffs and crappy races.
Posted by: Steve T on December 01, 2007 at 11:33 PM
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RJ,
That was quite the effort from Romance is Diane. She definitely came back from that layoff a different filly. She absolutely wouldn't let Tough Tiz's Sis get to her, and set a new track record to boot.
Posted by: Steve T on December 01, 2007 at 11:46 PM
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Wally,
I have been to the "NEW" Gulfstream on many ocasions, I like it, good food, drink,play the ponies. What would you rather have, Gulfstream in January or Aqueduct in January.
I look foward to opening day, I could care less about the slots.
Posted by: Ken H. on December 02, 2007 at 12:43 AM
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HOLLYWOOD PARK – Sunday (12-02-2007)
Race 1 – Surf Town, Meaux Power, Mt. Orient
Race 2 – Warren’s Instigator, The Ivan Show, Greatest
Race 3 – Cantina’s Rose, Onebadkitty, Clever Lady
Race 4 – Mellow Cammie, Catch That Thief, Wineshine
Race 5 – Lucky Mama, Believeinthemoment, Splendid Kiss
Race 6 – Gold Trim, Imitation, Americanrevolution
Race 7 – Evil Lightning, Zuri Mwana, Tactical Talent
Race 8 – Petite Cherie, Aunt Pink, Nootka Island
Race 9 – Greg’s Gold, Bushwacker, In Summation
Race 10 – Ohtobexcessive, Oh I Tripped, Pace to Burn
Longshot Plays:
Race 4 – Corvinus (12/1)
Race 5 – Believeinthemoment (8/1)
Race 7 – Tactical Talent (15/1)
Race 8 – Aunt Pink (12/1)
Race 10 – Southern Moment (15/1)
Posted by: Steve T on December 02, 2007 at 12:51 AM
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Wally- what I (and I think many) dislike about the new Gulfstream is that it has "de-emphasized" the outdoors relative to the old one. The old Gulfstream had a nice paddock/walking ring, a grandstand where more than 900 could sit and watch the races, generally nice grounds that emphasized what people typically want in South Florida in the winter- to be outdoors enjoying the sunshine and warm weather. Plus it had some charm. I frequent Monmouth and the old GP reminded me a lot of Mth.
Many also complain about the track layout, which is 1 1/8 in circumference and does not accommodate 1 1/16 races. Also I understand horsemen are not fond of neither the outdoor paddock, which offers no shade (I've never seen another one like it) nor the paddock under the grandstand, which is cramped.
New Gulfstream is a largely indoor experience.
I went last March and had a great time. I would go back. I chose to hang out at one of the bars on the 2d floor that was on terrace overlooking the walking ring. I was on vacation and thus didn't mind running up a bar tab every day. However I wouldn't want GP to be my regular track. It's way too small to handle big days and in my view has a generally unwelcoming feel to it.
Posted by: Al Hattab on December 02, 2007 at 08:02 AM
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Sunday (12/02/07) Selections:
Hawthorne Race Course
Race 3 Bankruptcy Babe
Race 6 Bonnie's Prospect
Race 7 Hensley
Race 9 Super Cart
Thanks/chicago gerry
Posted by: chicago gerry on December 02, 2007 at 08:26 AM
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2008 Kentucky Derby Futures
Here are the only 2008 Futures I can find:
Alaazo 100/1
Anak Nakal 75/1
Beresford 60/1
Betatron 100/1
Big Truck 100/1
Cave's Valley 100/1
Colonel John 60/1
Cool Coal Man 50/1
Court Vision 75/1
Dixie Chatter 75/1
Etched 25/1
Georgie Boy 75/1
Gold Coyote 75/1
Golden Spikes 100/1
Halo Najib 100/1
Hyrule 100/1
Into Mischief 75/1
J Be K 75/1
Jedi Code 200/1
Kanan Dume 80/1
Kodiak Kowboy 60/1
Maimonides 50/1
Majestic Warrior 50/1
Massive Drama 100/1
Monba 100/1
Nistle's Crunch 100/1
Numaany 100/1
Overextended 100/1
Paint 60/1
Por Que 100/1
Prussian 100/1
Pyro 15/1
Racecar Rhapsody 100/1
Ready's Echo 75/1
Ready's Image 150/1
Sargent Seattle 100/1
Slam Slew 100/1
Slew's Tiznow 50/1
Stevil 100/1
Tale Of Ekati 40/1
The Roundhouse 75/1
Unbridled Wish 100/1
War Pass 15/1
Wicked Style 100/1
Z Humor 75/1
Posted by: Steve T on December 02, 2007 at 09:11 AM
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My bad-I traced the X-factor through Culin's dam, Sherriff's Deputy, not his sire, Smart Strike.
Posted by: Chase on December 02, 2007 at 11:07 AM
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Steve T,
I had another bad day yesterday (lost both late P4s at CRC and HOL in the final leg and THAT WAS THE GOOD NEWS!) I too hit the SUPER in HOL6 (only a $0.50er) which was my only (+) ROI for the day. The Gods of Racing are punishing me for something...
On a positive note, Mambo in Seattle worked for Neil Howard at FG yesterday - plans are for him to race there in the "coming weeks" (from the DRF article.)
Speaking of workouts and my losing CRC picks/bets, Mattieandmorgan had a 2nd 4f work at Palm Meadows yesterday (she moved down from BEL in NOV.) This 2yo filly is by Smart Strike out of Lady Shirl - that makes her the HS to Fantastic Shirl (my losing pick in the MyChrmrH yesterday) and Shakespeare (and I think McLaughlin is also her trainer.) I hope she's getting ready for her 1st start soon!
Posted by: Alan on December 02, 2007 at 11:20 AM
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Hi Gerry,
You are correct about the way the super prices are computed... it's always a multiple of the base amount, which is $1 or a dime, depending on whether the track has dime supers. I don't know why tracks report the $1 price when they offer the bet for a dime. It's not a glitch... in your example, the $1 super paid $370K... the problem is, nobody had it for a buck, so nobody actually got paid that amount. Divide by 10 to get the dime price.
I'm not aware of any takeout savings, but it is always better to play $1 supers as 10 separate dime tickets. The advantage is avoiding the IRS and having to report winnings. Steve, I hope you did that last weekend... it's worth the extra few seconds spent hitting the 'repeat' button.
I kind of like the new pentafecta bet. I'll watch it for a while to see if it attracts a lot of money. It seems like a bet that could be worthwhile on carryover days if the daily pool is strong. Of course, I'd only consider playing the bet on turf, but that's just me. I think the minimum here should be $1 because of the carryover situation. This bet has more in common with the P6 than the superfecta. I just hope the bettors treat it that way.
The bet I'd really like to see at more tracks is Tampa Bay's twin tri, which also has a carryover feature... it's a lot tougher than it sounds. The only obstacle is that it requires a software update on the machines because combos for the second leg are selected after the first leg is won.
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Nice posts by all... I think there's a lot of truth to what AlHattab was saying. However, Stronach seems to manage his empire like an equine production of the "The Producers"... why have a successful operation with good racing when you can destroy every track you touch, one energy drink at a time?
Posted by: C on December 02, 2007 at 11:22 AM
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Heart, Genes, and Loss of Inheritance.
The numerous posts are one of the more fascinating discussion strings, and tug at questions that are better posed than answered, if only because there are few definitive statements that can be advanced regarding the power of bloodlines in predicting performance on the track.
Thanks, Amanda, for the article about the x-factor. In thinking about both an x-factor and the receding influence of bloodlines with every generation (an interpretation not readily accepted by all), think of the mare, Mariah's Storm. A remarkable racehorse in her own right:
MARIAH’S STORM, by Rahy. 10 wins, 2 to 4, $724,895,
Turfway Park Breeders’ Cup S.-G2, Arlington-Washington
Lassie S.-G2, Falls City H.-G3, AKsarben Oaks-G3,
Arlington Heights Oaks-G3, Arlington Matron H.-G3, Mrs.
Revere S.-L, Rolling Meadows S.-L, 2nd Valley View Breeders’
Cup S.-L, Palatine Breeders’ Cup S., 3rd Spinster
S.-G1.
Dam of 7 foals, 6 winners, including—
GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (c. by Storm Cat). 9 wins in 13
starts at 2 and 3, $3,078,989 in England, France,
Ireland, and North America, Horse of the Year in Europe
at 3, highweight in England and Ireland at 91⁄2-
11 fur. at 3, highweight in Ireland at 7-91⁄2 fur. at 3,
Irish Champion S.-G1, Prix de la Salamandre-G1, Juddmonte
International S.-G1, Eclipse S.-G1, Sussex
S.-G1, St. James’s Palace S.-G1, EBF Futurity S.-G3,
Gladness S.-G3, 2nd Two Thousand Guineas-G1,
Irish Two Thousand Guineas-G1, Breeders’ Cup Classic-
G1, Queen Elizabeth II S.-G1. Sire.
YOU’RESOTHRILLING (f. by Storm Cat). 2 wins at 2,
2007, $208,740 in England and Ireland, Cherry Hinton
S.-G2, Swordlestown Stud Sprint S.-G3, etc.
Tumblebrutus (c. by Storm Cat). Winner at 2 in Ireland,
England, and North America, 2nd EBF Futurity S.-G2.
Freud (c. by Storm Cat). Subject stallion.
Tiger Dance (c. by Storm Cat). Winner at 2, $34,093
in Ireland and North America, 3rd Governor’s H.-L.
Roar of the Tiger (c. by Storm Cat). 4 wins, 2 to 5 in
Ireland and North America, 3rd Governor’s H.-L
Note that her six winners are comrised of five full brothers and one full sister (a 2 year old this year). What accounts for only one of them not only being a monster runner in his own right, but also being a highly successful sire? Perhaps the jury is still out on Freud and Tumblebrutus' success as stallions, but with the same (obviously not identical)genetic inheritance, we have a good case study for exploring, even if ever so tentatively, the contribution of receding generations to a horse's innate ability.
Posted by: e_s on December 02, 2007 at 11:25 AM
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"I want to be like Mike", says Michael Hammersly about Mike Watchmaker (Invasor still on the Divisional older horses leaders list; let's see if he is still on the list on the first issue of the DRF in 2008).
What is with this preoccupation with Invasor? I still like Michael Jordan but I don't sit arounf eating Life cereal thinking about him as the most talented player that ever played the game of basketball.
Hammersly suggests that Invasor was the most talented horse he saw in 2007 and brings up the Donn and Dubai. He includes Curlin and Mid-Night Lute as candidates for the most talented horses he saw in 2007. He does suggest that Curlin may have been the most talented, but he is not sure about that. It all starts with INVASOR, INVASOR, INVASOR.
I just don't get it. I assume he is talking about the total performances of these horses for the year 2007 and not a particular performance or a couple of performances during the year. If so, how he could he even have the audacity to suggest suggest that Curlin may not have been the most talented horse for 2007?
Oh well.
Thanks/ chicago gerry
Posted by: chicago gerry on December 02, 2007 at 12:42 PM
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P.S.
I will be releasing information on Curlin soon.
Thanks/ chicago gerry
Posted by: chicago gerry on December 02, 2007 at 12:55 PM
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Chicago Gerry-
Hammersly never said anything about Invasor being the most talented racehorse ever to set foot on a track, so it would be unfair to compare him to Michael Jordan, who probably is the most talented basketball player ever.
Secondly, both of Invasor's performances this year were very nice, and I don't think that any other older horse could possibly beat him if he were still in training.
Thirdly, Invasor ran in the US in a Grade 1 and was obviously superior to those horses, and then traveled half way around the world, and was superior to all of the top horses in Dubai. That is a spectacular feat, and even Curlin hasn't beaten the world, just America. Curlin raced in Grade 1 company 6 times in his short career, and he lost half those times. Invasor didn't lose this year. How can you compare a horse that hasn't lost this year, and only lost once in at least 12 starts, won a Triple Crown, and beat top horses in at least 3 countries to a horse who raced 9 times, lost 3 times, and has only beaten US horses? I believe that this is where Hammersly is basing his choice, and I, for one, agree with it entirely.
Posted by: Chase on December 02, 2007 at 03:26 PM
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Chicago Gerry,
If you are using Watchmaker as any kind of barometer for sanity or insight you are barking up the wrong tree.
Posted by: Steve T on December 02, 2007 at 04:18 PM
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e_s,
It could be that Mariah’s Storm , although a good racehorse, was not the best of mares in the shed. That’s why she did not have that many champion offspring.
Now take Chef-de-Race Hasili who is an excellent mare. Four of her seven offspring are G1/Group I winners with over $1 million in earnings and five of them were sired by Danehill. Both Hasili and Danehill are out of the Northern Dancer line and Northern Dancer is out of the line of Nearco who is the ancestor of most of the modern-day thoroughbred champions.
Nearco had the heart of a champion and that could be one of the factors that his descendents have dominated the Triple Crown trail for the past 50 years.
Posted by: Calvin Carter on December 02, 2007 at 04:56 PM
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Dan Dan the Maiden Man,
Would you look at the #6 (Postage Stamp) in the 7th at Hollywood today (Sunday). I saw NOTHING that said he would win (and win easily).
I actually liked an even longer shot (34/1) in Tactical Talent - but he had some nice works including a 1:12 6F (he finished 4th).
Breeding of Postage Stamp is nothing spectacular, works are less than average (only 6F was 1:14), trainer is small barn, high % jock, but he won. Is there anything there that I missed or is this one you just shrug your shoulders and go to the next race?
Posted by: Steve T on December 02, 2007 at 06:51 PM
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Hi Gerry,
My last post was poorly worded... obviously, you can't win more money than what's in the pool. If someone had a live $1 combo, the pool would've been split between 10 additional dime winners.
I got a good laugh from your analogy to Michael Jordan. Between Invasor and Curlin, it's impossible to say that one was much better than the other.
BTW, Steve and Chase... while Invasor ran in Dubai, I wouldn't exactly call this year's World Cup an international field... DiscreetCat, PremiumTap, and a few outmatched also-rans... besides, the local Dubai horses are significantly weaker than the Americans anyway, IMO. I liked Invasor a lot, but I have no reason to say he was better than Curlin, or vice versa.
C
Posted by: C on December 02, 2007 at 07:04 PM
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Steve T. Good point on the using Watchmaker as any kind of insight barometer.
Posted by: Joe F on December 02, 2007 at 07:29 PM
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Dan,
Sorry, the Alzheimer's is kicking in, it is Postage Necessary not Postage Stamp.
Posted by: Steve T on December 02, 2007 at 10:59 PM
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Steve T,
You are making me reopen a fresh wound (the stewards giveth and the stewards taketh away! Last week I won the SUPER with their takedown -> this week I lost the P4 because they kept Buchwacker ON TOP in the VernonUnderwood!), but this is why I put Postage Stamp on my P4 ticket. The key was Stage Sensation...
Stage Sensation came in 3rd at DMR 1st-out in the Czechers/PSU Grad msw race. Next month she came in 5th at OSA in another msw. Two weeks ago (Nov18), she finally broke her maiden in her 3rd attempt - a MC for SouthernEquStbl/Guillot/Baze. Stage Sensation's likely HOL "work partner" (work for Guillot the same day and distance) the past couple of months was Postage Stamp. Their last work together (Nov10) was won by Postage Stamp (0:59.80 vs 1:00.20) -> IMO, she let Postage Stamp win that work to inflate his male ego (she must not realize Postage Stamp is gelded??)
Too bad I didn't play Postage Stamp to win, but only on the P4 (his ML was 8/1, but he went off at >20/1.) My P4 loss stunk! I even singled Gomez's 6/1 ML horse in the 8th race (my ticket was 1,5,6,9/2/1,3/4,9,11) and only bet a small WP on him. Instead of a large P4 win, I barely made any money for my efforts in those races! Those damn Racing Gods are still punishing me!!!
Posted by: Alan on December 02, 2007 at 11:01 PM
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Jason,
Just read a "Talking Horses" interview with Byron Rodgers on Blood-Horse.com. He is a stallion manager, and pedigree expert. Our thoughts and, postings about Victory Gallop were echoed by him.
Someone from Schoharie N.Y. posed the question about 10k stallions that will have an impact on U.S. racing. Mr. Rogers responded "as far as proven value s
ires around 10k I like Victory Gallop. They run and I think he will keep getting it done and the market will pay for it".
If you are into pedigree study and, bloodline matings you might want to read the entire article. While there is some egoistical sarcastic content I could have done without, it is a pretty good read.
He at least substantiates many of my beliefs on conformantion, speed, and stamina. Also has nice input on the understanding of true nicks.
Victsu, would be very remiss if I didn't at least comment on your post including "The Road Less Traveled". Peck is a brilliant read as is anything by the great Dr. Edwin Timmons (pyscholgy prof. @ LSU), who was voted more than once as the best professor @ LSU by none other the the student body.
One of the lessons in life for me was by Timmons, called "Don't Kick The Cat". In a nutshell, don't let a bad beat affect future decisions, or maybe more importantly don't go home and kick the cat because you had a bad day!
Without getting lenghty I pasted and copied your post to give to a young couple I hired in my restaurant. The husband, Charlie has a felony, the wife has problems as well. They are good workers and, I feel pretty good people, just made some bad decisions as we all have. Just trying to help them get it together. My hope would be they take your post to heart. Nice writing! BTW would loved to have meet your Uncle Dan.
Even without meeting or ever knowing him he is a real hero. Most of us couldn't even dream about passing on with a legacy anywhere close to his.
Some of you are probably asking what the heck does this have to do with horse racing?---Enjoy the race today win or lose. Hopefully we all wake up tomorrow on the right side of the grass and can pick a winner!
Best Wished to All.
Posted by: johnny z on December 02, 2007 at 11:06 PM
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Sometimes You Feel Like a Nut, Sometimes You Don't - Almond Joy's got Nuts, Steve Don't...
Race 1 - My 7/1 pick Surf Town is beaten in a photo, even though it looked like he made it, my 18/1 shot came in right behind him. The winner? One of my write offs. Strike One.
Race 2 - I have the winner, the place and the show, the fourth place? Confucious Sez not today. Strike Two.
Race 3 - My picks run one-two, and I cash my massive $4.60 exacta. Ball One.
Note: These Decarchy horses are just kickin'! Pay attention they are for real. There are not alot of them yet, but they have an incredible record as first time starters, all that I have found in the recent weeks have been in the money in their first starts including, Cantina's Rose, Kiss My Crown, Harlene, and Gooch's Dream (these were the only Decarchy entries since 11-14). So if one comes up as an FTS, look hard.
Also Mike Puype is off the charts as a trainer, he must be close to 50% winners and they are solid winners.
Today - Cantina's Rose, Friday - Kiss My Crown
Race 4 - I have the winner (Mellow Cammie) and nobody else. Strike Three.
Race 5 - Lucky Mama comes in third, the rest are far back. Strike Four.
Race 6 - I have the winner (Gold Trim) and the 21/1 show horse and the 4th/5th horses but no Ghost Actor. Strike Five.
Race 7 - Postage Who?? Strike Six.
Race 8 - I don't want to talk about it. Strike Seven.
Race 9 - I decide that Bushwacker would win (he does) and that Greg's Gold would place (he didn't by a neck). $200 Exacta. Strike Eight.
Race 10 - Ohtobexcessive wins, no one else shows up to the party. Strike Nine.
Hey Alan, do we really do this for fun???
Posted by: Steve T on December 02, 2007 at 11:59 PM
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On Decarchy - speaking of cheap stud fees for nice progeny. He stands for $5K. His dam is Toussaud - also the dam of Empire Maker, Chester House, Chiselling and Honest Lady. Not a bad line up. Nice set of female genes for five grand!
Posted by: Steve T on December 03, 2007 at 12:11 AM
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Johnny and Vicstu,
Have you guys watched the Ken Burns special "War" yet? An incredible piece of work. Actually saw the B-29 my dad was on taking off from Tinian (he didn't believe me and watched the rerun). Watching the Marines that ended up on Guadalcanal, then Bouganville, then Iwo, then Okinawa - and they actually came home and didn't start slaughtering people on the streets.
I wonder if we would have been able to do what they did. I used to work for an old Master Chief Botswains Mate who had 1/2" deep scars down his back from barnacles when he slid down the hull of the USS Utah when it rolled at Pearl. His response? Coulda been worse, I had orders to the Arizona the next week... I actually worked on Ford Island and there is a courtyard in the dispensary that wasn't there on December 6th.I used to go visit the Utah - it is on the back side of the island and no one ever goes there. Everyone I knew that was in WW2, my Dad, my uncles, everybody always responded the same "it wasn't that big a deal, we just did what we had to do"
Posted by: Steve T on December 03, 2007 at 11:20 AM
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OOPS!
Hasili is a Reine-de-Course mare. Sorry about that.
Posted by: Calvin Carter on December 03, 2007 at 02:03 PM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 