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FormBlog | January 28, 2008
Beyers, Bluebox results
Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes races:
Sunshine Millions Sprint (GP): Benny the Bull (R. Dutrow Jr./E. Prado) - 115
*Sunshine Millions Dash (SA): Bob Black Jack (J. Kasparoff/D. Flores) - 109
*Sunshine Millions Distaff (GP): Ginger Punch (R. Frankel/R. Bejarano) - 109
*Sunshine Millions Classic (SA): Go Between (W. Mott/G. Gomez) - 106
*Sunshine Millions Turf (GP): War Monger (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux) - 100
*G Malleah (TuP): Trail This (R. Score/R. Eikleberry) - 97
*Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf (SA): Quite a Bride (W. Mott/G. Gomez) - 95
*Maxxam Gold Cup (Hou): Reporting for Duty (S. Asmussen/L. Quinonez) - 95
*Kachina (TuP): Rivotella (B. Wright/G. Corbett) - 95
*Appleton (GP): Buffalo Man (C. Gambolati/E. Prado) - 94
*Lord Snowdon (Aqu): Lord Snowdon (A. Dutrow/R. Dominguez) - 94
*Turnofthecentury (Aqu): Run With the Lark (R. Schosberg/N. Arroyo Jr.) - 94
*Hangonslewpyhangon (TuP): Billy Allen - Ire (K. Bennett/C. Landeros) - 93
*Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint (SA): Dearest Trickski (J. Sadler/M. Smith) - 91
*Le Grande Pos (Pha): Banjo Picker (S. Krebs/T. Hemmings) - 90
*Sam Houston Distaff (Hou): Buy the Barrel (J. Jones/G. Saez) - 90
*Nellie Morse (Lrl): Wild Hoots (K. McLaughlin/M. Pino) - 90
*Sunshine Millions Oaks (GP): American County (D. Romans/E. Prado) - 87
*Forego (TP): Forest Blue (S. Ritter/V. Lebron) - 86
*Dixie Belle (OP): Kadira (D. Vance/L. Quinonez) - 84 (*Rated Fiesty earned an 85, but was dq'd from first to third)
*Smarty Jones (OP): Liberty Bull (T. Amoss/E. Razo Jr.) - 84
*El Paso Times (Sun): Snake Proof (H. Dominguez/A. Martinez) - 84
*Invitational (PM): Mystic Wood (R. Stevenson/A. Gutierrez) - 83
*Happy Princess (Aqu): Devil House (B. Levine/C. Lopez) - 81
*Marie G. Krantz Memorial (FG): Autobahn Girl (M. Pierce/P. Husbands) - 80
*California Derby (GG): Yankee Bravo (P. Gallagher/A. Solis) - 74
*Pepsi Cola (Sun): Brax (C. Lambert/C. Lambert) - 68
Here are the lifetime past performances for "Big Beyer Performer" Benny the Bull:
Download benny_the_bull.PDF
...Many people seem to be on Court Vision's bandwagon. Where is he pointed to next?
vicstu
The IEAH group (Kip Deville, Benny the Bull, Sharp Susan, etc.) recently purchased an interest in Court Vision. He will remain with Bill Mott, and is scheduled to make his three-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on February 24.
***
Congrats to Alan for his good showing in the NHC. He posted some photos in the comments section, and I'll repost them here.
"Working on Dan's 2008 raise"
http://bp3.blogger.com/_Syhfudya3i0/R5wn8qX_azI/AAAAAAAAAJo/N2mOboY4D6E/s1600-h/Putting+in+a+Good+Word+about+Dan.JPG
"At the Sports Book"
http://bp0.blogger.com/_Syhfudya3i0/R5wn76X_awI/AAAAAAAAAJQ/QlCtV3aC6KI/s1600-h/At+the+Sportsbook.JPG
"At the NHC Winners Circle (Uncle Steve is practicing for next year...)"
http://bp1.blogger.com/_Syhfudya3i0/R5wn8KX_axI/AAAAAAAAAJY/_Npo8phYGkg/s1600-h/At+the+Tournament+Winners+Circle.JPG
"After the Awards Ceremony"
http://bp2.blogger.com/_Syhfudya3i0/R5wn8aX_ayI/AAAAAAAAAJg/1rSuCzkFa2k/s1600-h/Outside+Red+Rocks.JPG
"Happy Formbloggers"
http://bp1.blogger.com/_Syhfudya3i0/R5woQKX_a0I/AAAAAAAAAJw/TYO8siRFMu4/s1600-h/SR+Vegas+and+Alan.JPG
http://bp2.blogger.com/_Syhfudya3i0/R5woQaX_a1I/AAAAAAAAAJ4/hUA3kJSvGRM/s1600-h/Steve+T+and+SR+Vegas.JPG
***
I promised myself I wouldn't get all "Page Six"-ish on the Blog, but one time won't hurt anyone:
"This well-known tournament player/television analyst threw a major league hissy-fit when he found out his not-so-plum seating assignment for the NHC?"
***
Can anyone tell me why there are no payoffs listed for the early pick 4 at santa anita(sat.)? Does it have anything to do with the dead heat? Thanks.
Lane
There was no early Pick 4 at Santa Anita on Saturday because of the Sunshine Millions card (All Stakes Pick 4 on stakes races + Magna 5).
***
I know Rated Fiesty has some fans on this blog. I know she got DQed to 3rd in her stakes effort today, but I just wondered if anyone watched the race replay and if so, how did you think she looked?
Lawduck07
I thought she was really good, and it was a shame she was taken down. Rated Fiesty showed her customary early speed, made the front, and dug in very gamely when confronted in the stretch. She didn't show any rust from the layoff, but it was a hard race so it will be interesting to see how Asmussen proceeds with her.
***
Dan ,
what happened to my oaks winner Mushka? unspecified?
tom
Mott's not talking, but it looks like she's out of the Oaks.
From the 1/22 DRF (David Grening)
Mushka unlikely for Kentucky Oaks
Mott said that Mushka, winner of the Demoiselle Stakes in November, has suffered a setback and likely won't be ready to run until the Belmont meet, meaning she would miss the Kentucky Oaks. Mott wouldn't be specific about the injury, but did confirm that Mushka has been taken out of training.
"She won't make anything down here," Mott said.
***
Dan,
Sorry to post when you're really busy, but Ed Fountaine's article in Sunday's N.Y.Post on drugs in racing with commentary from Jack Van Berg and John Ward would interest most here and
I wanted to make sure you saw it. Maybe you could create a link for us?
Mike Soper
Here it is:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01272008/sports/roid_to_trouble_247525.htm?page=0
***
Handicapper of the Week:
And the winner of the inaugural "Bluebox" handicapping contest is....
Kenny with $206.10 in winnings.
Here are the final standings (please correct me if I made a math error):
Kenny - $206.10
Steve T - $161.90
bigblue - $161.20
Billy - $157.60
Brett - $100.30
Dale T. - $98.90
chicago gerry - $92.80
Mark - $74.60
tbone - $73.60
Dominic - $53.30
mpm - $51.90
Katie - $49.30
cayman - $46.80
pgm - $23.40
Van Savant - $21.00
All in all, we had a great turn-out, and some excellent scores. Great job by all!
I'd like to do this monthly, and I'll try to get the tightwads at the DRF to offer up some prizes to the winners.
Some of you voiced concerns about the aging fanbase. Perhaps these contests are a way to attract young blood. The new NHC tour is offering some big money for the top players, and the NHC prize is getting bigger and bigger by the year. Handicapping, as you know, is a fascinating and grueling mental excercise where the sharpest players are rewarded. If handicapping is promoted on equal footing as the racing, it's possible that we'll be able to attract new fans.
Talk to you tomorrow,
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on January 28, 2008 | Permalink
Comments
Handicapping contests are not "handicapping" in any significant sense. Handicapping is based on the ability to determine form and value. For many years, I entered handicapping contests but got discouraged by the formats. Give me all mandatory races then it is you against me. I am pretty much a "form guy so the probability of me finding a 40-1 shot at Pondunk Downs is 0. Handicapping means processing and analyzing information to ascertain a winner in a particular situation. I do not want to be forced into "finding" winners at tracks I nothing about and then having to take ridiculous plunges to get more money. These contests should allocate points on a series of mandatory races--something like 5 points for a win, 3 points for a place, etc. This is a situation where handicapping ability comes into play. As they are now contested, these contests depend too much on luck--hence, they are not "handicapping" contests but rather lotteries. I am sad to say that the present handicapping contests resemble these poker tournaments. I do not think there is a dime's worth of difference among any of those players--if they do not have cards they lose hence luck is a major factor in all they do. We all have the same Racing Form so let's see who interprets the data best. This seems to me the essence of handicapping. These contests prove nothing about the ability to handicap. Take the case of my friend Stan Bavlish if you don't think luck has a bearing on the outcome of any contest. I am content to go to OTB and do my handicapping for immediate results but do object to any contest winner being considered a great handicapper rather than a simply a lucky individual in the right place at the right time. I have read and enjoyed this blog for a while and will look forward to the reaction to these comments. Thanjk you
Posted by: ksquared on January 28, 2008 at 11:23 PM
hello all,
congrats to kenny for taking the "blue box inaugural"
i didn't have time to handicap much, so i didn't post an entry.
it seemed like it had to have been hard sifting thru all of those posts to keep track of it all.
since there are always 2 "races of the week" listed on the site, maybe we could have something on a smaller scale as qualifiers.
with over 13 weeks until the kentucky derby, that would be 26 "races of the week that you could choose your 15 races from.
if you were behind, you could go "bombs away" like they did in the tournament.
just a thought, because of the time constraints, you may get more people involved if they only had 2 races a week to go over along with their regular "im heading to the track" handicapping.
enjoy reading all your posts and keep up the good work... crash
Posted by: crashthe24 on January 28, 2008 at 11:28 PM
As someone not that far removed from college in age (and even less so mentally), it really intrigues and bothers me how racing can’t attract younger fans. I was sitting watching the races this past summer at the Maryland State Fair thinking, why didn’t I do this during the two years I went to Towson University?, which is a hop skip and a jump away. It had all the necessary ingredients of college fun, which for my pals and me was mostly booze. Throw in the added intrigue of betting and making money (The polar opposite of guzzling it away at the bar.) and for what more could you ask when you’re 21, 22, (or 19, 20 w/ an ID that says you’re 25, but I am not promoting that!).
I had, in addition, what I thought was a great promotional idea. Promote a college day at the races. There must be like 5-10 colleges in the greater Baltimore area (Towson, Loyola, Johns Hopkins, Morgan State, Coppin State, UMBC, Notre Dame. Did I forget any, Alan? You’re from that area, right? Sorry in advance for the mistake if I confused you with another blogger.) That equals hundreds of student groups. There could be $1 beers. Reduced admission. A handicapping seminar, maybe. (Most of my contemporaries cite not knowing how to bet the races for there lack of interest in coming with me to the track.) I’m not talking heavy stuff either. Just how to place a bet without looking like a fool in of the attendant. Here was my personal favorite idea. Do a promotional “race” in between two races. Allow student groups to race to win a prize for charity on behalf of their group. (Greeks and club sports have to do all kinds of charity and community service stuff.) Two people could be the horse, wheelbarrow race style, and one could ride piggy-back on the “part of the horse” that’s standing up. ( Tell me what college dude wouldn’t want to take part in an activity that would potentially require hours of practice in carrying a cute little chick around piggy-back and numerous episodes of falling down on top of each other in the in the process. Most college girls would love it, too.) Anyway, just the tip of the iceberg to all the possibilities that were running threw my mind that day at Timonium watching the grandpa’s in their high white tube socks and O’s caps with straight brims looking through their race programs.
But, alas, the MJC did not want me. (I sent my resume to them via a family friend whose is the starter at Laurel and no luck.) Equibase didn’t want me either. (Applied for some job they were advertising last fall.) Guess no one has use for a creative law school graduate, so I given up the race industry idea, and surrendered to the idea of indeed being a lawyer. Now I am studying for the bar exam, so I’ve pretty much been off the derby trail so far as well as all else. I have been reading the blog, but I’ve resisted posting much, because as you see, I get into it and before long an hour is shot. I must go do some practice MBE questions now (I am sure that brings back fond memories for the lawyers in the group.).
But before I go, one quick question, does anyone give either Einstein or AP Arrow a shot to upset Daaher in the Donn?
Oh yea, and one last thing. I’m a woman, too. Female and under 30. That’s a real rarity as far as racing fans go. I don’t know how the other women on the blog have faired, but all the times I have gotten one of my female friends to go with me to the track, it’s been interesting to say the least.
Posted by: Lawduck07 on January 28, 2008 at 11:29 PM
Great point about the aging fanbase Dan. I will hopefully be participating in my first NHC competition this summer. I am currently 20 turning 21 in March an cannot wait to get in on the handicapping challenges. I have been going to the Arlington Trackside OTB and Arlington Park, Maywood, Hawthorne Park, and the late Sportsman's Park (moment of silence... thank you) since the age of 6 with my dad. But anyways I cannot wait to get in on the action. We'll see how the summer shapes up but I cannot wait to get in on some handicapping competitions.
And there would be nothing better then a 2009 January trip to Vegas!
Posted by: Brett on January 28, 2008 at 11:38 PM
It has been a real light schedule for graded stakes for 3 year olds these past few weeks. Here is my week #3 recaps of the last few graded stakes.
3 YO Graded Stakes Recap
Week #3 (1/13 – 1/19)
San Rafael (G3) Recap – (1/12/08, 1 M Synthetic, Santa Anita #5)
Enough has been said about El Gato Malo, he will be a very interesting horse to watch along the Kentucky Derby Trail. A second consecutive third place finish for Massive Drama does not bode well for his future, but he can not be completely tossed at this point. I would not bet him next time out, but I would not be surprised if he is still a factor. Indian Sun is the big question mark. There is no way he was going to beat El Gato Malo. He could just be the best of the also-rans. But, on the other hand, he improved a ton from his 12/22 race and could still improve some more. I am definitely interested in seeing more from him.
Old Hat (G2) Recap – (1/12/08, 6 ½ f, Fillies, Gulfstream #9)
Game Face’s professional and impressive performance saved me here. When I went to place my wagers for this race, she was still at 5-1. As I said I would in my analysis, I took her for the minor awards at those odds and dropped my top pick of Indy’s Alexandria (a good move). Games Face’s odds dropped considerably by the time the gates opened, but she was still the best horse (although I think the win was aided somewhat by a fast start). I wish I had been more confident and played the win wager. Indy’s Alexandria was a bust and I was surprised by Orinoquia’s finish. Melissa Jo also ran a sneaky good race. She encountered traffic on the turn and I expect she could be better going second off of her layoff and at a longer distance.
Tiffany Lass Recap – (1/12/08, 1 M, Fillies, Fair Grounds #8)
Jolie the Cat took on all comers and still prevailed. She looks to be headed in the right direction. Tizaqueena battled, but was no match for the winner. Highest Class, my selections, appears to be one-paced.
Lecomte (G3) Recap – (1/12/08, 1 M, Fair Grounds #9)
I am still confused about this race. Texas Fever, my selection, failed miserably. The winner, Z Fortune, is a contender, but I need to study this race more before I am sure about him. I am still not a Blackberry Road fan, even though many are high on his effort in this race. I want to know my selections can win a race, not hope the next race will be the time they finally pull it together.
Santa Ynez (G2) Recap – (1/13/08, 7 F Synthetic, Fillies, Santa Anita #3)
Golden Doc A deserves some credit for a nice race. She almost knocked off the champ. However, I think people are being too quick to dismiss Indian Blessing. It was her first off the bench, there was a small field, the pace was super quick, she was in the thick off it from the beginning, and she did win. I guess you would like a prohibitive favorite to win more decisively, but I think it might be a mistake to assume she is vulnerable next out because of this race.
Santa Ysabel (G3) Recap – (1/13/08, 1 1/16 M Synthetic, Santa Anita #5)
Turn Away was vanned off, not a good sign. Kazamira looked like she needed the experience. I like her breeding and connections, so I am hoping she can improve off this effort. Grace Anatomy disappointed once again. Final Fling put in a good effort and won the right way, but at this point I think you have to question the quality of the race. Maybe she did not beat all that much.
Although they were not graded races, the 3year old races from the Sunshine Millions produced two nice winners (American Country and Bob Black Jack). However, because they were only 6 furlong sprints and restricted fields, I am not sure how much they really showed us.
Back with more later this week as the action starts to pick up again. Thank you to Alan and his supporters for letting us follow your experiences in Vegas.
Ed
Posted by: Ed on January 28, 2008 at 11:47 PM
i just wanted to comment on what Kenny and Kenny Mac were saying about the age of handicappers at the track. I'm 18 and a full-time student at UofL, which is about a mile from Churchill Downs. I go to the track about 2-3 times a week and my bankroll is about $100-$130 a day.
The biggest problem my friends have with the track is that they believe they are just giving there money away. I think some parents(like my mom), condemn gamblers, and especially horse players so bad that they really believe no one ever wins money. If i tell my mom im playing poker tonight, she says ok have fun, but if i tell her im going to the track, i get a 20 minute speech about how im going to gamble my life away and end up with nothing.
I feel that if you put enough time into the game, you really can come out with a profit and the added enjoyment that comes with it.
The problem with college students is they don't have the time and money to put into the game to make it enjoyable to them. With 15 hours a week in classes, plus homework, plus a job that pays a mere $6.50 an hour, plus 12 beers on Friday and Saturday night($10 a night), you might be able to see why they feel they are "condemned" losers whenever they do go to the track.
I think once a few of them get out of college and get some money in the bank, they would feel a bit more comfortable putting $40 into a machine and pressing numbers. What I'm really trying to say is don't give up on us yet, because there still are some gamblers out here, even if were far and few between.
As far as some suggestions to tracks to attract younger people, i would say lower takeout(will never happen though), more 50 cent pick 3s, pick 4s, tris(i realize this hurts the bigger players though), college days were students get a free cooler with paid admission(it does promote drinkin but lets face it, college students drink, it wont stop)and free admission for women(trust me,the guys will follow). Also, i would like to say that Keeneland does a great job attracting the younger generation, as they give out $1,000 scholarships and they market their product very well. They have the 50 cent plays and those are very popular with groups of kids who are willing to put up $10 bucks each for a chance to have a nice score. However, regular meets like Churchill do absolutely nothing to promote their product, and it shows by the low number of younger people that show up. That's about all i have, but if anyone has any questions for me, fire away. Congrats to Alan for the great weekend and to Kenny for winning the Blue Box Championship.
Posted by: bigblue0710 on January 29, 2008 at 12:00 AM
Bigblue0710-
I totally agree on your point of lower betting minimums. There is nothing better then a .50 cent Pick Four. And the only thing that comes close if the .50 trifecta at Arlington which is fantastic. And yes Keeneland does do the best with college students but Arlington Park does great too. I wish I was closer to Lexington so I could make a trip to Keeneland but the eight hour drive hurts. Maybe once I get paid over $10 and am done paying student loans I will make that trip.
Posted by: Brett on January 29, 2008 at 12:33 AM
The only way college kids can love the racetrack is if they were taken to it when they were little.
It seems bad to take a 7 year old or so to the track, but as long as it's not overdone, then they'll grow to remember it when they're older and get into it.
Posted by: RJ on January 29, 2008 at 12:46 AM
ksquared,
I was wondering who your friend Stab Bavlish is, and what in the heck happened to him.
I some ways, I agree with your position having participated in one live handicapping tournament and a few on line contests. But the combined elements of handicapping, a little luck, money, and especially the competition of a live tournament has an appeal for many as an experience that can't be found at the local otb, or track for that matter, engaged in conventional parimutuel betting.
If you looked at the Blue Box Contest results, Steve T. scored pretty well. He is a person that comes up with prohibitive long shots on a regular basis. So I believe culling a long shot is something that can be learned, just as picking out 5-1 shots off form is learned; just not as many, but in the long run, just as profitable.
My guess is the top finishers in the Blue Box Contest would do as well in any format that you might prefer.
My reaction to your post is one likened to Voltaire, "I disagree with what you say but I will defend to the death, your right to say it".
If it were me writing, I would not take such a downer attitude and depressing position, at a time where I would celebrate the efforts and achievements of everyone who had just participated in the NHC and the Blue Box Contest.
I enjoyed the Blue Box Contest. katiestandingbytherail indicated she liked the contest and I'm sure most of the participants did too. So if it were me, I wouldn't be raining on someone elses parade.
ksquared, jump in on the next contest, you might find it fun and it might improve your handicapping skill's.. It's never to late to teach an old dog a new trick.
Dan,
I would support crashthe24's sentiment regarding 'time constraints'.
My proposal and first choice is to hold a one day Saturday Blue Box Contest once a month with an 11 race 6/5 format, or, my second choice would be to have a two day Saturday/Sunday Blue Box Contest with a 9 race, 5/4 format for both days.
My main thought here, is to cut down on preparation time.
I could also, go along with crashthe24's idea with perhaps adding a three more races per week.
Dan and Allen,
Thanks for sharing the Vegas.
SE Vegas,
I saw where you hit on a $39.00 place bet with Hans Solo.
After looking at the Vegas pictures, I was thinking you looked a little bit like Princess Lei-ah. That's meant as a compliment.
Thanks/ chicago gerry
Posted by: chicago gerry on January 29, 2008 at 02:12 AM
Dan,
Do you have the past performances of Tomcito by Street Cry/Inside or Outside by Eastern Echo – thanks. And thanks for posting the pictures of Alan, Steve T., and SR Vegas. It was good to see their beaming smiles from the NHC Championship.
johnnyz,
I plan to add Tomcito to my top five and, upon further investigation, he could be my number one pick for the Kentucky Derby. More research is needed but here’s what I know. Tomcito is a two-time G1 winner from Peru who has already won at 9.93 furlongs and 11.93 furlongs and he’s won 4 of his first five starts by a combined 35 ¾ lengths and a runner-up in the Classico Polla de Potrillos G1.
I first read about Tomcito last fall in an article about Street Cry and his progeny (by Avalyn Hunter I believe). At that time, Tomcito was in South America and I just recently found out that Tomcito is in training at Palm Meadows in anticipation of his debut in the United States.
I do not know if he’ll have the same South American trainer or if he’s been handed over to a new trainer and I do not know which race will be his debut. However, he looks like a real good thoroughbred and one to keep on the watch list.
Here’s some links and a Youtube that I’ve been able to find on Tomcito:
http://www.chesapeakefarm.com/news.asp?Action=Article&NewsID=354
http://youtube.com/results?search_query=tomcito&search=Search
Posted by: Calvin Carter on January 29, 2008 at 03:07 AM
Dan and all,
I d like to comment on the discussion about the lack of young horseplayers. I am 30 and I have been consistently going to the track since I was 18. I got hooked on my 1st visit. My friends however who are big time gamblers dont enjoy going to the track except on rare occasions. I think the main reason is that the "action" is to slow.You can play at least 1 shoe of blackjack before the next race goes off at a specific track. Most young people nowadays are too impatient to wait 20 minutes for a race when they can go to a casino or bet a number of sports at 1 time. Handicapping takes too long and its too much work for my friends and Im sure many others. We didnt grow up in the pre simulcast age when there werent many casinos and you were forced to bet only 1 track. The older generations were pretty much forced to be patient. So you had to learn how to pick your spots. I believe that is my biggest weakness. I have never learned how to be patient and pick my spots like my mentors have. I am sure there are plenty of other reasons why there are so few young horse players out there but it has been my experience that the slow pace of horse racing is probably the biggest reason why there are so few of us getting into the game. Most young people want instant gratification and that is something that is very hard to come by in this game.
Posted by: scianc22 on January 29, 2008 at 04:06 AM
Where's Magnifience?
Posted by: Floppydog on January 29, 2008 at 05:22 AM
There are some good posts here from last night...
From the last thread, Gerry, thanks for the feedback. And I am glad I understood what C was trying to get at.
C, you may have a point about the slower splits (I am assuming you were talking about on certain Polytrack surfaces like DelMar or Keeneland. I know that many times when I watch the races unfold on polytrack, it appears as though the jocks are riding like they are on turf (slow fractions and a mad rush to the finish). The only exception I can think of is Turfway, which sometimes plays more down the middle-but still has issues with backspray.
Lawduck07,
I automatically assumed you were a guy when you first posted here a few months ago. I can relate to studying, as I am still in law school-but I am a decade or so older as I decided after running a few businesses and having a bachelors degree that you really need a law degree to truly manuver the regulatory minefield which is 21st Century American business. And I have already taken several mock MBEs, as well as a mock Florida bar exam...
But I succesfully argued several cases in court as an executive of a corporation, and did so in such a manner that the federal judge in one of the cases thought I was a lawyer, and later encouraged me to go to law school when he found out I was not a lawyer. But I digress (yech, I had to use that tired old lawyer term).
Some of your suggestions for getting a younger crowd at the track sound pretty ambitious, but rest assured I would love a ladies day at the track, and it doesn't matter if a guy is 23, 33 or 43 (or older), they still like carrying "a cute little chick around" piggyback, or whatever. However, that is something best left to college aged kids, as I can see only drunken fools stumbling everywhere and the potential of lawsuits arising out of such horseplay. Oh well, they could always argue consent by the plaintiff, right? That is what those Waiver of Liability Forms are for anyhow...
But, you are to be commended for your love of the sport, and your dedication to studying for the MBE. BTW, the law school I am at specializes in sports law, which includes parimutual tracks-and there are internships at the PGA headquarters in Ponte Vedra Beach and St Augustine, as well as at Daytona, with the Jax Jaguars, and there are even sports attorneys specializing in horsetacks, dog tracks, jockeys, etc. as either counsel or agents.
Something you may want to consider after you ace the MBE. Which state will you be practicing in, anyhow? Maryland? That is where I am from, went to high school there, owned businesses there, and then moved to Florida. So, yes, there are many colleges there and Alan and Mike Soper are both from the area. And don't forget the many colleges in other counties (like Salisbury State) as well as the DC area.
I do feel a little stupid for assuming you were a guy, and I hope I never said anything that indicated that I assumed you were a guy, but, the demographic fits most often to a guy. For instance, you are the only female lawyer or lawyer to be at this site (that I know of).
I think its great that you like the sport, obviously like the law, but, seem to have some reservations as to exactly what to do with your education...join the club!
Ed,
Excellent post. Your breakdowns on the races were pretty good. I agreed with everything you summarized. Guess we are all in wait and see mode, but its nice waiting for it to unfold this time of year.
ksquared,
I am with you on the handicapping against others using the same races and forms, rather than cherry picking, although actual handicappers I know who are good enough to make a living at it pretty much toss almost every race and only bet on one or two races on any card. They do not bet on the Saturday night specials that the masses so love, or stake races that much, rather, they look for value and a certain feature with a race that they are comfortable with and then load up...
But as far as one on one handicapping, or in contests, I agree it should be apples to apples, form to form.
Interesting ideas and post by the rest who posted as well. Wish I could reply or respond to them all, but I enjoy reading these type of postings. Keep it up!
Great pictures, Dan, Steve T, his wife, Alan, SR Vegas, and the celebs in the pictures as well (right, S. Crist the celeb).
Posted by: vicstu on January 29, 2008 at 06:35 AM
Dan,
I really enjoyed the contest. Thanks for keeping score.
larryk,
I grew up in Youngstown Oh, went to college in Florida, and have moved around quite a bit for work in the last 10 years. I currently live in Cary, NC. It's near Raliegh. It's a nice area, but nowhere to play the races. I make it to Youngstown about twice a year and see Grandpa who is 82 now. Hes starting to slow down now but when I get there, one of the first things he says is "let's go for a ride to the track and see what's what". Needless to say, he dosen't have to twist my arm.
Vicstu,
I noticed in one of your previous posts that you live in Jacksonville. When I was in College at UNF I used to frequent the OTB on racetrack rd. Is that the one you go to? Also, I used to hang out at the bar there with Ronnie & Ronnie. Are those guys still around? If so tell them Kenny says hello. It was about 10 years ago but my guess is that they would remember.
Posted by: Kenny on January 29, 2008 at 08:08 AM
Vicstu,
Do you go to Florida Coastal? My old man teaches there.
Posted by: Kenny on January 29, 2008 at 08:37 AM
Hello,
Some really great post on how to get the younger generation into the racing action. These idea's need to echoed to the marketing managers at all the race tracks.
Lawduck07,
You brought back some great memories when you mentioned the Md. St. Fair (Timonium).
Twenty to twenty five years ago we would make a road trip there at least two or three times in the summer from NC. Long trip. We would leave at midnight on friday and most of the time leave for NC right after the races. The best days were when William Passmore would dog a 2-5 shot and the crowd would boo him like crazy. He did that many times. But making road trips like this to Laurel and Pimlico were great for many years but since VA now has the OTB I don't get back except for going to the Preakness. I have been going since 78' and have only missed the 93'. We'll be there again this year also.
Kenny, I'm from Greensboro, Nc and was wondering if you go to the OTB in Alberta, VA. I used to go there quite often on Saturday's but since they opened an OTB in Martinsville I now go there. 45 minutes beats two hours. Congrats on the BlueBox contest. Also, do you plan on playing the Colonial Downs Handicapping Contest? I think you will do well.
P.S., Lawduck07 or Alan, Is the Chard Rib still there. Great ribs.
Michael H.
Posted by: Michael H on January 29, 2008 at 09:58 AM
Michael H,
I moved to Cary about a month ago. Alberta seems to be the nearest OTB to where I live. I planned on going last Sat for the first time but didn't make it. It seems like it would take me 1 1/2 hours each way to Alberta. I will probably make a trip there in the next few weeks though.
I am not sure when the contest is at Colonial. I saw that they have an online one but I'm not really interested in winning tickets. Now if you know of one for cash or NHC berth let me know. I do plan on playing in the NHC qualifier that they have there. I haven't seen a schedule of qualifiers yet. If anyone has seen one please post the link for me. I want to try to plan on going to a few and take a shot at getting to Vegas.
Posted by: Kenny on January 29, 2008 at 10:25 AM
Lawduck07,
Congrats on getting through law school - my oldest daughter is currently a 2L. If you liked Timonium, you are really hooked on racing! As several have mentioned already, some tracks (KEE is a good example) do a nice job at promoting to college students. However, sometimes they go too far - for example, I remember Santa Anita had problems with fighting when they hosted a Microbrew Festival last year.
My children have no interest in horse racing. My son goes to the Preakness once a year for the "Infield Experience", but not to watch the races. For gambling, he either plays blackjack online or occasionally goes to Foxwoods (near his college.) Scianc22 is absolutely right - there is a patience to handicapping that in so many ways doesn't fit the "Video Game Age" (similarly, baseball seems to be slowly losing popularity.) My son will play 100 games of blackjack online in the time it takes me to handicap one race (a race I may not even bet on depending on the odds.) My daughters, on the other hand, don't enjoy gambling and basically think I'm an oddball (they are right about that!!) Although my kids love to hear my stories about some of the horses/characters in the game, they have little to no interest in watching the races. I used to take them to Timonium State Fair when they were younger and they just wanted to stay on the rides. Pimlico....well, let's just say not an option. I did take my entire family (including teenage nephews) to Belmont for the Breeders' Cup a few years ago (I had a really good ROI that year), but it was really cold that day and the whole crew lost interest after the first couple of races...
Handicapping contests/tournaments are extraordinarily humbling. Anyone, and I mean anyone, who tells you they do well all the time is LYING!!! Ron Rippey, the winner of NHC VII and an excellent Public Handicapper, finished close to last place this year. What hopefully you have learned from the Formblog contest is that you all should try to make the NHC. If you are an online geek like me, try the online qualifier. Otherwise, go to the track contests. I learned a lot from meeting some extraordinarily knowledgeable horseplayers/fellow contestants this past weekend - they really represent the best handicappers around and deserve to compete for a National Championship. There are many areas I need to work on if I truly want to reach that elite level on a more consistent basis. However, I also realized that I (and also many of you on this blog) belong there too - it is a great experience and as you saw from your Formblog NHC results, when you do well you can compete with the best! If you can afford it, I would suggest you set aside part of your bankroll for contest use this year.
Kenny,
I'm not sure why they are trying Doneitagain in a turf sprint claimer. I really liked his chances to wire the field yesterday on dirt and from his inside post...
Gerry,
Thanks for the tip on El Prado Rob - I've known him from his life most recently as a NY turf horse (he was racing on the Spa turf this past summer.) I didn't realize he moved to KY and was now a poly horse - although he did run on dirt in Derby preps several years ago. I'll try to check out the PPs later today for him and the competition...
Michael H.,
Yes!! Here's the website:
http://thecharredrib.net/
Good luck today!!!
Posted by: Alan on January 29, 2008 at 10:35 AM
svhill,
Don't forget to get out there and vote today over there in the land of sunshine and oranges.
I don't know whether or not vicstu or larryk are voting in today's Florida primary, but I figured you would.
Maybe we can get a President who likes horse racing.
Thanks/ chicago gerry
Posted by: chicago gerry on January 29, 2008 at 11:02 AM
Lets try Tampa today
Race3 #9 (15-1) sprint,sprint,route/3rd off the layoff, won last time on stretchout
Race5 #8 (8-1) 1-2 0n the turf, lone loss on turf was to War Monger by 4 1/2 lengths
Race6 #2 (8-1) Won debut at 39-1, raced greenly(didn't change leads until 2 jumps from the wire but still managed to run down the leaders, muscular looking horse, he won't win this one unless he changes leads when he hits the top of the stretch, hopefully he learned from the winning debut
Race9 #9 (8-1) sprint,sprint,route 30% angle for Ritchey, adds blinks, well bred
Good Luck
Posted by: Kenny on January 29, 2008 at 11:06 AM
Can someone give me details on the GP allowance race saturday with Wonder Mon. I see he came in 5th. Was he outclassed? Not ready? Jockey? I see that J. Rose is riding some of Capuano horses. Possible jockey change?
Michael H.
Posted by: Michael H on January 29, 2008 at 11:48 AM
regarding women and children at the track...
I used to have my birthday parties at Bay Meadows. I don't remember any of my friends being forbidden to come by worried parents, or anything weird ever happening, although Bay Meadows is, honestly, a little skanky.
Since then, I've been to Hollywood Park and Santa Anita lots of times, and wandered off on my own because I'm usually with non-racing people who can't be bothered to go look at the horses in the paddock, and I've never felt unsafe or uncomfortable as a 30-something female.
Just my .02.
Posted by: Kyri on January 29, 2008 at 12:32 PM
Michael H.
I watched (but didn't contest select or bet) Wonder Mon on the big screen in the Race Book Saturday - I was looking forward to seeing him face better horses for the 1st time. Wonder Mon broke fine, settled in the rear on the backstretch, started moving as they were reaching the far turn and then just didn't fire. Dunkelberger hit him a few times but then appropriately gave up - you could have had Eddie Arcaro on the horse and it wouldn't have mattered... I'd still give Wonder Mon a shot in the Fountain of Youth - he'll have great odds. I thought Cool Coal Man and Golden Spikes were both impressive in the race (and both have potential Derby pedigree.)
Which reminds me, Golden Spikes is trained by Marty Wolfson. The Wolfsons (Steve Sr. and Jr. - father and son - I actually messed my contest message up a few days ago - it was the son, NHC winner 5 years ago, who sat next to me) are contest vets and as many of you know, fixtures in Florida racing (own Happy Valley Stables.) The patriarch of the family, Louis Wolfson, the owner of Affirmed, just died recently. Marty is Jr.'s uncle...
Speaking of messing up my messages, my son plays online poker, not blackjack, and plays 10 poker hands online for every race I handicap!!
Posted by: Alan on January 29, 2008 at 01:02 PM
Michael H
Wonder Mon didn't look like he belonged with what I though was no great group of 3YOS. I bet him because he took some early $$$ and I was very disapointed in his performance.
Anyway, Was it just me or did Rene Douglas just butcher the ride on Soldiers Dance? I know Castellano's Horse really pushed him wide, but the horse really finished well considering the fact that his rider had the chance to follow Warmonger and choose the parking lot route instead. Douglas usually rides good when I play his horeses, not this time!
Posted by: T on January 29, 2008 at 01:58 PM
Michael H,
Wonder Mon didn't seem to fire at all in the 6th at GP on sat. I don't know if he didn't like the track or has some sort of ailment. The winner Cool Coal Man and the runner up Golden Spikes (who I really like) are very nice colts. I would expect to see both of them on the derby trail. That race could very well have been a stakes race as there were some quality horses in there.
Hopefully Wonder Mon just had a bad day and he will still be a contender on the first Saturday in May.
Posted by: Kenny on January 29, 2008 at 02:04 PM
Great blog Dan, and thaks for keeping score last weekend. After finishing fifth vs. the worlds leading blog cappers I feel honored and look forward to some kind of a weekly, monthly blog pool in the future.
Dale T.
Posted by: dale tillotson on January 29, 2008 at 02:19 PM
Correction I finished 6th, still honored.
Dale T.
Posted by: dale tillotson on January 29, 2008 at 02:21 PM
Alan,
I checked out the PPs for doneitagain's race Thur. I could be wrong but he drew inside and figures to have the lead turning for home. Whether he likes the turf is another story but I would play him at 4-1. I could see him 3 lengths ahead turning for home and holding on.
Posted by: Kenny on January 29, 2008 at 02:32 PM
johnnyz,
Using the DRF work search program I see that Tomcito posted his first work at Palm Meadows on January 27 – 3 furlongs 36.40 H. So it appears he has some re-conditioning to do to be competitive. He’s already accomplished a lot as a 2-year-old winning two G1 races and racing against his Southern Hemisphere counterparts who are basically 3-year-olds. So, I guess only time will tell how well he does on the Triple Crown Trail.
I read in the Sunday edition of The Courier-Journal Turf Writer Jennies Ree’s annual Road To The Roses scouting report of the different regions and the list of 50 top contenders – the last race they’ve won and where they may be headed next.
If her list is correct, the news may not be good. It appears that a lot of the favorites on a lot of peoples list may only get 2 prep races going into the Kentucky Derby – I hope I’m wrong about that. Practically all of the California contingent will have never raced on dirt going into the Derby. Bob Baffert is one of the few trainers who plan to prep on dirt.
Todd Pletcher said that he’s behind where he was at this time last year and that Monba is his most accomplished colt so far. Cowboy Cal will not prep on dirt. He’ll race in another grass race and then he’ll run in the Toyota Bluegrass.
With most thoroughbreds getting only 2 prep races that will have a big impact on the selection of the Road to The Roses fantasy stable. I think it’s going to take a lot of luck keeping track where all of these horses will be running and making sure that you have those race dates covered.
You can check out Jennie’s scouting report at this link:
http://courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=SPORTS08
Posted by: Calvin Carter on January 29, 2008 at 02:54 PM
Well there's definetly some hope for young racing fans, becuase I'm under 18, and I'm a female, and I've never been to the track, and I'm still hooked!
Posted by: Chase on January 29, 2008 at 03:04 PM
ksquared,
I think there's some truth to what you're saying. In the 'European' sense of the word, handicapping is the process of evaluating past performances to grade horses on a weight scale... hence the term 'handicap race'.
Of course, horseplayers use a different definition of 'handicapping' to refer to the ability to pick winners or find value. The appropriate format for a contest depends on what the goal of the contest is.
Is the best handicapper the one who can pick the most winners? If so, then a point system should be used.
Is the best handicapper the one who finds the most value? This gets tricky... first of all, everyone's concept of value is different. If Bill connects with a 8-5 shot and John scores with a 15-1 shot, who got the better value? John is going to get the higher ROI, but I'd rather be in Bill's shoes if he's holding a $2000 win ticket and John only bet $10. There's no way to quantify value either... you can't use the tote board. Just because John's horse was a bigger price and produced a higher ROI, who's to say the horse shouldn't have been 30-1? Maybe Bill's chalk play should've only been 3-5.
The idea of being the "best" handicapper is a subjective thing... I'd rather be the biggest winner.
Posted by: C on January 29, 2008 at 03:16 PM
Alan, Kenny,
Thanks for the info on Wonder Mon.
Michael H.
Posted by: Michael H on January 29, 2008 at 04:21 PM
Alan,
My DSL modem fried early Sat. so wasn't able to keep up with your contest. Considering the talent you competed against you did well. Sure you will do much better next year after the experience.
Calvin, I remember reading an article about Tomcito last fall, I think shortly before the Breeders Cup, winning the Peru Classic @9.?F, by 10 lengths.
Searched equibase and, Palm Meadows trying to find out who his trainer is but, had no luck. Will be interesting to see if Tomcito gets the services of a first-call jockey in his first U.S. effort. That IMO would tell us alittle.
BTW, the Street Cry colt's dam, the unraced Inside Outside, is a half-sis to Numerous Times (2001 Canadian Champion Turf Male).
Pretty well have a top 20 list for the Derby put together. As I stated in December, still feel this is a pretty tight bunch. In past years, at least in my mind there were at least 3/4 that were stand outs. After many hours of study and, re-watching races the past couple weeks, then with the aspect that you mentioned with so many contenders running only 2 preps and, some will never race on conventional dirt lots of historical Derby factors will have to be overlooked.
As always just find the fastest horse that can get the distance, wish it were that easy.
I guess if I could have one wish for the Derby contenders it would be for Dollase to point El Gato Malo toward the Wood Memorial. Would really like to see this talented colt put in 1 1/8 on real dirt before the Derby.
Got to go, will try and post my Derby list tomorrow night. Good luck to all.
Posted by: Johnny Z on January 29, 2008 at 04:46 PM
Calvin,
Thanks so much for the Derby list! It's great!!!
Larry,
I just saw your post about Leparoux- the race was SAR5 on Aug25 and Life is a Cabaret drew in from the AE list, shipping from SUF->MTH->SAR. BTW, that race ruined my chances in the August NHCQualifier. The following day, Leparoux won me money back on Dr. Rico in a Spa turf race at > 30/1 odds! I found my old blog comment on those races:
http://community.drf.com/formblog/2007/08/some-contest-in.html#comment-80688121
Kenny,
I'm still trying to get over the Aldebaran FTS who wired his 5f turf GP MC'er in NHC DayOne. There were two other GP 5f turf races run during the contest and each was also won by a frontrunner. However, Doneitagain does not have a turf pedigree (Although I'm not sure if that matters as much for these turf sprints...we actually had a small debate amongtst the NHC contestants about this issue after that Aldebaran baby maiden win Friday.)
Posted by: Alan on January 29, 2008 at 05:30 PM
Hey Kenny,
Yes, I go to the OTB on Racetrack Rd. and yes, I am a 2L at Florida Coastal...
What is your father's name and what areas of the law is he a professor in? Its a pretty large law school but if I have not had him I certainly might know of him. Small world, eh?
As for the OTB, if you went there 10 years ago it was still a greyhound track, right? They shut the track down, and turned the entire place into a state of the art OTB called "The Best Bet", a large Poker Room (the entire 2nd floor) and a rest. I am there from time to time, when I can, but usually I just park in front of my PC or laptop. Of course, I am there with the wife and her friends from work for the Triple Crown, Travers, etc. And I know a couple of old timers there, am not sure they are who you are talking about, but will inquire when I get a chance.
I actually do not live very far from UNF, off of Beach Blvd. about 7 miles from the beach and 9 miles from downtown Jax. I grew up in Maryland, my family is originally from Florida, and we actually relocated to the Tampa Bay area in 2000 and still consider that our home. I certainly miss Tampa Bay Downs (I only was there 3 times but miss having a horse track in my backyard), and I did most of my handicapping at Derby Lane Greyhound Track, which has an enormous OTB and Poker Room and nightclub, in addition to the greyhounds. I worked there for a few years as a judge, a finish line judge and a starter.
Here is my 2 cents on Wonder Mon for everyone. I do not know whether he was outclassed or not, but he certainly did not fire when asked. It may be that he is a stalker by nature, as opposed to a closer, as he won 2 allowance races at 2 turns-one by coming from well back, and the other from just off of the pace. He wouldn't be the first horse which had to be more forwardly placed to keep in touch and factor against better competition. The horse deserves another shot...then we will know better.
Speaking of another chance, I see where Cave's Valley will be running in the Whirlaway Stakes this weekend at Aq. I believe it is a blessing in disguise that Ramon D. has other obligations and that Mario Pino has the mount (again). Pino is one of the best on tactical speed and speed horses. He is more aggressive than RD, and did great on both Hard Spun and Diabolical. In Cave's Valley's most impressive win at 2 turns, Pino was up and CV won going away. I still think CV has Derby potential, has a good trainer, Spectacular Bid's connections, and is out of the AP Indy colt Stephan Got Even. What more could you ask for? He will have no excuses this time against this field...
And I see Wise Answer has worked two bullets at Caldor, one at 5f and one at 6f. I have no clue where he is pointing, but he is getting ready to run somewhere. Lets hope its on dirt, and at 1 mile or over, and will be something that could lead to a good Derby prep. As a 2 year old, he had some of the highest BSFs and Brisnet numbers in the country. And as for El Gato Malo,
don't hold your breath, Johnny Z. Dollase is pretty firm on running in the Santa Anita Derby for that one's final Derby prep. The horse looks like he justs swallows the ground, but dirt remains the big unknown. Luckily, cushion track is much closer to dirt and sand surfaces than Polytrack is.
Gerry,
I don't know about SVHill and voting, although I do believe he is a Libertarian. I am a Libertarian but registered Independent after I became disgusted with the Republican party I was originally registered with. So, I cannot vote in the FL primaries if I wanted to...but I still remember the 2000 election when we first moved down to FL and the hanging chads, etc.
What a circus!
And, the younger racing fans and handicappers here should be commended for actually following a past time that has some substance.
Of course, with all things moderation, but you do not have to bet on the horses to follow the sport (like Chase, BigBlue in Louisville, etc.) Although BigBlue obviously goes to the track, I do not know many 16, 17 or 18 year olds who follow horseracing.
And I know that in this sport anyone under 50 years old is considered "young", but I am specifically addressing the fans under the age of 30. And BTW, Scian22, hope all is going well, or at least a little more stable.
Posted by: vicstu on January 29, 2008 at 06:00 PM
Taking a shot at Auqueduct's p-6 rollover on 1/30/08:
R4-2 R5-2,3,4 R6-7,8 R7-6 R8-1A,2 R9-1,2,7,8,9
Posted by: kchris on January 29, 2008 at 06:48 PM
FOB Unite:
Its actually one yr since his passing today.
What an athlete.
Barbaro will be the first horse in history to have his remains placed on the grounds of the historic track. His ashes will be interred outside Churchill's entrance gate in a large elevated space enclosed by bricks. The site will also include a life-size bronze statue commissioned by the Jacksons and loaned to the track as part of the official memorial site.
Actually, I live in the city that has the Derby every yr. So, unfortunately I can't vote in the FLA prim., however we did get a Gov. that likes horse racing.
Posted by: larry k on January 29, 2008 at 06:54 PM
does anyone know of a place that offers free contest for $ beside offthepace.com
Posted by: Tony on January 29, 2008 at 06:57 PM
vicstu,
Last name cataland, teaches contracts and business law. When I went to the OTB it was best bet but no poker room yet.
Posted by: Kenny on January 29, 2008 at 07:16 PM
Tony,
Xpressbet has some free contests I believe
Posted by: larry k on January 29, 2008 at 07:19 PM
I just hit a FTL horse at moutaineer at 42-1 that won by a pole. HA
Posted by: Kenny on January 29, 2008 at 07:32 PM
Here's my Handicapping Challenge... who wants in?
Rules:
1. Must be at least 5 years old.
2. Three pre-determined full cards. Two dirt/turf track, one synth/turf track. Let's say the TOTAL number of eligible races is 30 (10 at each track) for this example.
3. Players must select AT LEAST 10 races. They can play all 30 if they choose.
4. For chosen races, players select ONE horse.
5. Players start with 0 points. Winners (1st place only, including dead-heats) earn 1 point. Losers (anything else) SUBTRACT 1 point.
6. For ONE race only, player has the option of doubling their risk. Winners will earn 2 points, losers will deduct 2 points. This is not mandatory, and may only be done once per player.
7. Highest point total wins.
------
Tie-breakers:
1. Highest % winners.
2. Most winners.
3. Steel cage match.
It is possible to go to the 2nd tie-breaker. Let's say 2 players finish with 0 points, meaning they each selected the same number of winners and losers. One might've gone 5/10, the other 10/20. Percentage-wise, they're both at 50%. I'll give the edge to the player who went 10/20, because they kept up that pace over more races.
I think this isolates handicapping, not betting, skill and allows a wide range of playing styles to be equally rewarded.
Here's why I like these rules:
Rules 2-3: If you like dirt or synthetics, go for it; if you specialize in turf, you can build your own turf card between the 3 tracks. If you don't like one of those surfaces, you can avoid them and play to your strengths. Also, if you're a jack of all trades, you can play all 30 races; if you like to pick your spots, you can play the minimum 10. The minimum will prevent anyone from picking 2 winners and shutting down.
Rule 4: Picking horses to WIN is what this game is all about... including all aspects of exotic wagering: not just P3/4/6s. Exactas/Tris/Supers too. Unless you're playing crazy boxes (which is not really handicapping), you always need to have a winner on top.
Rule 5: If this is a handicapping contest, odds are irrelevant. If you like chalk, why should you be penalized because the public happens to agree with you? If you sincerely like a bomb, why should you get extra credit because the public disagrees? You either truly like the horse or you don't... if you feel you need to be rewarded extra because you're playing against the favorite, then maybe you should just play the favorite.
Longshot pickers are at NO disadvantage because nothing is stopping them from playing the favorites. The chalk players are at no disadvantage because their consistency will not be wiped out in one race.
Rule 6: This rewards a single strong opinion. It's optional. You can only do it once, so you can't load up on a handful of races to boost your score. This is for players that like to wait for their chance to unload.
Things get interesting at the end of the contest. If you've already played your stronger opinions, but you find yourself 2 points behind with 3 races to go, you still have a chance... you might have to step outside of your comfort zone, but if you make your 3 bullets count, you might win.
Posted by: C on January 29, 2008 at 07:32 PM
chigago gerry
HA! Thanks for the "Star Wars" reference.
Big Smile!
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on January 29, 2008 at 07:34 PM
Kenny,
Thanks for the info.
If you make to KY during the Churchill or Keeneland Meets,
we can go to the track.
And we can go backside at Churchill
Posted by: larry k on January 29, 2008 at 08:41 PM
Kenny,
Haven't had him (yet), but I know of him. I have already had Contracts I and II, but my specialization is white collar criminal defense, personal injury, and sports law- so I still may get him for a class or two.
BTW, congrats on the 42-1 longshot!
Posted by: vicstu on January 29, 2008 at 11:44 PM
C,
I have to completely disagree with you. Odds are not irrelevant. They dtermine if you are going home with money in your pocket or not.
The guy who taught me how to play the races pounded home the same point time after time.You'll NEVER make a profit at the races playing the chalks. The proof is in the numbers. Historically the favorite wins only about 30% of the time. At an average odds of 2-1 that guarentees a losing day on a ten horse card.....every day!
However, if you hit one 10-1 shot and you're in the money.
I played the contest over the weekend, but only one day.I played all 15 races (mythical $30) and returned $46.80 ....
on two winners. i'll take a 50% return any time.
Capping the payout in a contest is the best solution.
You can't penalize people who like to look past the favorite, but you can't let the 99-1 bomber be completely rewarded. It's as level a field as you can make in a contest.
Handicapping skill includes all facets of the game. Anybody can look at a odds board and pick a chalk. There's no skill in that. But
pick a 25-1 first timer on turf. THAT'S skill, and should be rewarded.
Dan,
Thanks for the contest. I just wish i could have played both days.Congrats to all who played. A once a month contest sounds great.Count me in. And thanks to you and all who contribute to my handicapping education.
One thing i'd like to see more of is how you guys actually bet a race.Your strategies for the horses you like in a race. I seem to miss a lot of winning tickets because I might play a Super and miss, but would have had the TRi. Or play the Tri and miss a nice exacta box. So frustrating. And how I missed the Magna 5 over the weekend has still got me talking to myself. The one combo I missed (how?) hits and i'm left with twenty 4 out of 5 losers. True it was only $400,
but it was more than triple the investment.
And to add insult to injury I had one more 4 of 5 in the Magna/xpressbet fantasy contest which two guys split $10k over the weekend. Arrrrggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
Posted by: cayman01 on January 30, 2008 at 12:22 AM
Alan,
Starting next Saturday and continuing every Saturday on to the Kentucky Derby The Courier-Journal Turf Writer Jennie Rees will have her weekly “Road to the Derby” feature in the newspaper and on the website which have regular updates and coverage of the prep races from the different regions. Jennie does a good job of profiling the thoroughbreds in the different regions and she usually has a marquee horse to beat in each of the prep races.
In addition, on the website there will also be a link for free Brisnet past performances of most of the horses on the Triple Crown Trail.
You love spread sheets and you’ll probably love the C-J DataTrack which will also be available soon on the newspapers’ website. The DataTrack offers a comprehensive statistical data base of all of the horses on the Triple Crown Trail.
I forgot to mention that the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool dates have been set:
Pool 1: February 7-10.
Pool 2: March 6-9
Pool 3: April 3-6.
Posted by: Calvin Carter on January 30, 2008 at 01:07 AM
Chicago Gerry,
Vicstu is correct, I am a Libertarian. I also did not vote in the primary. I probably will in the general election just to say I did my civic obligation...but, if you knew what I knew, you would probably be holding your nose when you voted, if at all.
I am not getting into specifics here-and this is certainly no political statement. Suffice it to say I have been privy to documentation via lawsuits which leads me to believe that the new paperless voting machines are audit free, have a back door and are subject to manipulation.
I have seen sworn affidavits by experts attesting to this fact. There is simply no way to audit these particular machines-that Florida and numerous other states are now using, and the companies that make them are run by people who are major political operatives.
No way to audit means no accountability. It means "trust us"...which is a joke. As Tom Jefferson said, never trust those in power, or "have we suddenly elected leaders in the form of angels? Let history answer this question." Amen.
Sorry to rain on anyone's parade, its just my personal belief that the system is fixed. Why would they do it? Because they can, and they control major media and tell the sheeple what to think and believe. The powers that be have already decided that it will be McCain and Hillary in the general election...and I have been saying this for 3-4 months now. Boy, people thought I was crazy about the McCain selection. But, its not so crazy now, is it? Is it?
If Obama or Romney end up winning their primaries it will be an accident-because they cannot fix everything. But trust me, I doubt this will happen. I love this country, but we are in big trouble boys and girls...and I will leave it at that.
Go to blackboxvoting.com if you think I am some conspriracy nut. Plus, its one thing to say the system is fixed, and another to tell you who the fix is in for.
I am not saying anything more specific, because I do not want a visit by anyone flashing a badge and whispering to me about keeping my yap shut or else.
When you have sued the government several times, you really have to pick your battles, and this is not one of them. But, by all means vote if it makes you feel better. And Ron Paul is public enemy number one to the elite--they have smeared that man to no end in the media. And there have been entire groups of people turning up in small towns where Paul received no official votes to swear under oath that they voted for Ron Paul. That is fraud, people...Lawsuits have been filed and it is a disgrace.
Do the math. Sorry if I am bumming you out, Gerry. At least Donald Trump is a big racing fan.
Now, how bout that trail to the Kentucky Derby?
Posted by: svhill on January 30, 2008 at 01:14 AM
Wednesday, Gulfstream Park Race 8
#3 Nistle's Crunch (5-1)- McPeek's horse gets Desormeaux(27% TJ % last 60 days, plus Kent is his go to man). Turf to dirt(19% angle for McPeek from last 86). Comes out of key stakes race(1st and 2nd place finishers came back to win) at SA going a mile on turf, while closing in on slow fractions(also 4 wide around both turns, but came running in final 1/8th of a mile). This horse was 9 wide race before that when he failed against winners for the first time, also his first time on grass. I don't care for the horses coming out of Visionaire's race (#1 and #4 who were both favored over Visionaire, so they probably just outran Calder shippers that day while getting obliterated by a better horse). Nistle's Crunch should sit in just behind the leaders as he draws the 2 hole and will get the short trip around the track.
Win bet on #3 and Exacta 3 with the 2,6.
Posted by: bigblue0710 on January 30, 2008 at 01:49 AM
Cayman01,
My strategies in betting a race revolve around my strengths. My strengths are turf and maidens and multi race wagering. I very seldom will play tris.
I will always backup my bets in the multi race wagering. with win bets, the ones at 8-1/9-1 or higher. It works for me. I will sometimes play exactas in races, depending on how I feel about my key horses. Thats my strategy.
Posted by: larry k on January 30, 2008 at 07:09 AM
Larry K,
There are 3 horses already buried at Churchill. Derby Winners Brokers Tip ('33), Swaps ('55) and Carry Back ('61). 1983 Derby Winner Sunny's Halo will be reinterred at CD later this year. I am also a Louisville resident and I have been buried at Churchill many times. I do wish CD would do something to attract young players. But CD does not care about any players - young or old. The other day the CD president Steve Sexton made a comment that said "we are interested in horse racing". Interested? Wow, no wonder CD treats the horseplayers like they are a nuisance. All of us should make it a point to take someone new to the track once a year - even if it is CD. Perhaps we can pass along our love of the game to someone else. We all know that most of the tracks could care less about developing new blood.
Posted by: Ray Manley on January 30, 2008 at 08:54 AM
Hi cayman,
I'm probably not a huge chalk guy either, but I'll dispute the claim that high odds are the only way to win... ask any high roller who places $2000 win bets for a living. They still pick their spots, but they're looking for horses they feel have a 90% chance to win, not a horse at 12-1 who they feel should be 8-1. I'll also dispute the idea that 'favorites' can never offer any 'value'. Someone making large win bets might think 9-5 is a steal. You may have made a profit on 2/15 winners this weekend, but someone else could have placed a huge wager on a single chalk and walked away with a much higher return.
IMO, pure handicapping is separate from betting. Going with the 25-1 first-timer is a WAGERING decision 9 times out of 10. If you don't believe that, suppose you were blind to the odds. Would your handicapping still tell you that the 25-1 was the most likely winner? If so, good for you.
But let me ask you this: when you select a longshot, are you changing anything about your HANDICAPPING routine or method compared to the times when you land on a favorite? Probably not... so why would your HANDICAPPING skill suddenly be considered better for the races you picked a longshot compared to the races you picked a chalk? You're using the exact same handicapping approach for each. So, why is a point system unfair? If odds come into play, that's WAGERING, not handicapping.
BTW, what's the odds cutoff for 'skill' and/or 'value'? 5-1? 10-1? 25-1?
Posted by: C on January 30, 2008 at 10:26 AM
Cayman01
You are not the only one that gets frustrated betting. Thats part of the game. The best advice about betting I can give to you would be not how I bet, but to be able to move on after the race is over, win or lose. I once knew a man who's favorite saying after each race was " TURN THE PAGE". Simple enough advice: Don't harp on races u should've hit. Move on to the one you can hit.
Posted by: T on January 30, 2008 at 10:42 AM
I read ksquared comment about the handicapping tournaments. I agree until his point system with the races. You can't give out the same points for a $5 dollar winner as a $35 dollar horse, it defeats the aspect of horse racing, no two horse races are the same! The tournament system is fine, can't complain about it
Posted by: Statuz on January 30, 2008 at 11:32 AM
More or the Handicapping vs. Gambling debate:
I am going to use the 9th at AQU today as an example.
While Handicapping this race of NY MSW a few things stand out.
A few of the horses that have ran before seem decent, although they don't have much early zip.
Now, I know that this type of race is usually won by one with some early zip so I look to some of the FTS.
The ML fav #2 is a asmussan FTS that was working at GP and ships north to run here. He is well bred and seems to have a good shot at 2-1. The works are average. Now, I have to ask myself why not run at GP? He is a NY bred so this is obviously an easier spot, but if the connections thought he had a chance in an open race, he probably stays a GP to run.
This lingering question, and the prospect of a poor mutual if he wins, make him a toss out in my book. He may win by 10 at 2-1 but in the long run this would be a bad play.
Which brings me to the one I will play at 10-1 or more.
#6 sired by Artax, who was very fast. Trainer wins at 15% FTS. A very sharp gate work at the bel training track of 47.3. That is a very deep and slow track and equates to about 46 flat at AQU inner. If he runs to that work he figures to be on or near the lead turning for home. At 10-1 in a race like this, that is enough info for me play him.
Now, that being said, He is not the most likley winner in the race.
A few questions.
Is this kind of play "taking a stab"?
Did I handicap the race or am I just looking for value or both?
What is the relationship between value and handicapping?
Posted by: Kenny on January 30, 2008 at 11:49 AM
Bigblue0710,
I'm not sure if this is good news for you, but I also like Nistle's Crunch. GP8 is part of the $0.50 P4 and he'll be one of my 'A' picks in the race - along with Mythical Pegasus (I'm worried that unless now "Blinkers Off" Web Gem still goes with MythPeg, he'll have an uncontested lead.) That Eddie Logan was some "key race" - the winner, Yankee Bravo, won the CalDby on Sunday. Even the 7th place finisher, Dr.AuJus, is OK - he came in 2nd next-out in an n1x to Signature Move (albeit just a 4 horse race, but it was a nice effort.)
Cayman01,
You're an excellent handicapper! You gave me that w-t-w mc 5f turf race winner for the contest (you were right on target - of course I forgot to play him!!) Remaining focused and confident despite near-misses is always our greatest challenge!
C,
Any 'skills' contest will be defined by certain rules (whether horseplaying, home run hitting, bass fishing or even golf.) The DRF/NTRA seems to define 'handicapping skill' as making money picking horses to WP (regardless of what the actual definition of handicapping is...) The rules, for example, don't reward successful vertical and horizontal race handicapping. Some contests (the DRF Triple Crown Fantasy Challenge) give you points for picking winners, irrespective of the odds. The rules certainly make the contest!! For example, I've run the NCAA pool at my former job for 10 years - I've always wanted to weigh the picks rather than give purely points per round (in other words, either add or even multiply the seed to the points of that round) to encourage/reward selection of upset picks (the George Masons of the world.) That potential rules change was not favorably received...
Posted by: Alan on January 30, 2008 at 12:29 PM
Calvin,
I just realized I forgot to mention -> thanks so much again for the Derby information!! I updates the contest spreadsheet to include the future race info from that article:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL6U-SO_z3pEXw
BTW, I never got to meet Lauren Stich (she had already left the contest prior to my request...)
Posted by: Alan on January 30, 2008 at 12:34 PM
So much for handicapping any of the card in New York. "High winds" have canceled the card. Most interesante.
Posted by: Brett on January 30, 2008 at 02:09 PM
Everyone off Nistle's Crunch- he's been on my watch list since his 1st race and I like him today. I don't think he can handle all this formblog weight on his back.
Any truth to the rumor that excesses of Frank's Energy Drink were found in post tournament samples of Alan- and his source Steve? Come on SRVegas- spill the electrolytes.
Posted by: Mike Soper on January 30, 2008 at 03:23 PM
Ray Manley,
Thanks for bringing that error re:Churchill Downs and the Horses buried on the grounds. However, I cut and paste the press release from Churchill Downs into the Blog. You know how it goes with Churchill Downs it seems. I've never been impressed with the mgment there. It's an old boys network. However, Keeneland is a different story. Hope, you survived the storm?
Posted by: larry k on January 30, 2008 at 04:46 PM
Calvin Carter and All,
Maybe we could use the Road to the Road to the Roses as contest? It does make the Derby Trail more interesting.
It's free to enter and there prizes for the winners. If interested go to the RoadtotheRoses.com
It's not available yet, but you can enter your email addy to be alerted when it is. I believe you can make your first selections Mond. and the contest starts 2/9.
You name your stable, you pick 10 horses, 2 jocks and 2 trainers. You activate your horses each weekend for the 3yrold prep races that weekend. There are 2 times you can add additional horses.
Posted by: larry k on January 30, 2008 at 04:57 PM
Steve Haskins Top 12:
1. Court Vision
2. Monba
3. War Pass
4. Pyro
5. Tale of Ekati
6. Z Fortune
7. Colonel John
8. El Gato Malo
9. Anak Nakal
10. Into Mischief
11. Majestic Warrior
12. Turf War
Steve Haskins comments re:BB
Speaking of Zito, his best colt may turn out to be Bordeaux Bandit, who was extremely impressive breaking his maiden by 5 1⁄2 lengths at Gulfstream Jan. 12. The son of Vindication covered the mile in a sharp 1:35.41 and looks like he wants to run all day. If you like inbreeding with a real classic twist, he is inbred to Hail to Reason, Round Table, and Buckpasser. You rarely see a horse inbred to all three of those classic sires.
Bordeaux Bandit is owned by Len Riggio’s My Meadowview Farm, which also owns the promising Paint, who is back working after bucking shins. The son of Include overcame a ton of trouble when winning his career debut at Saratoga in impressive fashion, and then ran a bang-up fourth, beaten two lengths, in the Futurity Stakes after making a long, sustained move and having to go very wide at the top of the stretch. Zito is taking it slowly with him.
Posted by: larry k on January 30, 2008 at 05:46 PM
Alan, congtrats on your showing in the NHC. We are very proud of you. Did you get to meet the two brothers, Paul & Duke Matties. Two nice guys. If not, you will have the chance next year.
Posted by: rfh52pp on January 30, 2008 at 08:45 PM
I guess it's too late to bring this up but I loved Barbaro.I will never understand why he was not examined by the track vet after breaking through the gate prior to the Preakness. It was a major boo-boo that I will always believe cost him his life as that was when the injury occurred in my opinion
Posted by: glh on January 30, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Larry K,
We survived the storm but our property took a big hit. Most of my roof was torn off, I lost a large fence that runs along the edge of my house, my car was smashed by flying debris and we had various other minor damage. In total we had about $20,000 in property damage. But the neighbors behind us suffered major, major damage to their house - in excess of $150,000. His back yard and mine look like Tara after the Civil War. Good luck with the ponies.
Posted by: Ray Manley on February 01, 2008 at 07:35 AM
About
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor and the author of Betting Maidens & Two-Year-Olds. Dan is a frequent radio and TV guest, has appeared on ESPN and TVG, and is also the host of the DRF Newsdesk. He has worked for Daily Racing Form since 1998, and was a handicapper in the daily paper from 2000-2005.
