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FormBlog | January 07, 2008
Beyers, 'cappers, frogs, Pyro, Smooth Air, Ark
Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes races:
*Brushing Up (Aqu): Pink Viper (J. DeMola/A. Garcia) - 107
*Interborough (Aqu): Control System (M. Trombetta/J. Pimentel) - 105
*Hal's Hope (GP): Chatain (A. Penna Jr./C. Velasquez) - 100
*Mr. Prospector (GP): Noonmark (S. Asmussen/R. Douglas) - 105
*Canadian Turf (GP): Host - Chi (T. Albertrani/J. Velazquez) - 100
*El Conejo (SA): In Summation (C. Clement/C. Nakatani) - 100
*Native Dancer (Lrl): Throng (T. Pletcher/C. Marquez Jr.) - 99
*South Beach (GP): Quite a Bride (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux) - 98
*Swift (TuP): Trail This (R. Score/R. Eikleberry) - 98
*Impressive Luck (SA): Ever a Friend (M. Mitchell/T. Baze) - 96
*Hutcheson (GP): Smooth Air (B. Stutts Jr./M. Cruz) - 95
*Monrovia (SA): Alexandra Rose (N. Drysdale/R. Bejarano) - 94
*Tropical Park Derby (Crc): Cowboy Cal (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 93
*Cypress (DeD): Fass Feat (E. Schwandt/K. Clark) - 93
*Camelia (DeD): Ahead of Her Time (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan) - 92
*Count Fleet (Aqu): Giant Moon (J. Kimmel/R. Dominguez) - 92
*Tropical Park Oaks (Crc): Bsharpsonata (T. Salzman/E. Camacho) - 91
*Sabin (GP): Lady Marlboro (J. Jerkens/J. Castellano), Golden Velvet (K. McLaughlin/E. Coa) - 91 (Dead-Heat)
*Cotton Fitzsimmons Mile (TuP): Crested - GB (W. Dollase/B. Blanc) - 90
*Ruthless (Aqu): Dill Or No Dill (G. Contessa/R. Dominguez) - 90
*Glendale (TuP): Placid Lake (V. Cerin/C. Potts) - 89
*Dixie Poker Ace (FG): Willist (K. Broussard/R. Albarado) - 88
*Campanile (GG): Somethinaboutlaura (J. Hollendorfer/R. Baze) - 85
*Minaret (Tam): Taylor Madison (M. Dini/C. Montalvo) - 85
*Albert Dominguez Memorial (Sun): Some Ghost (J. Alley/C. Lambert) - 84
*Turfway Prevue (TP): U. S. Cavalry (M. Maker/B. Hernandez Jr.) - 82
*Stinson Beach (GG): Italian Rules (M. Glatt/K. Kaenel) - 80
*Last Chance Derby (TuP): Mr Charlypotatoes (T. Klenakis/R. Eikleberry) - 79
*Louisiana Futurity (Colts) (FG): Cubera (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan) - 78
*Louisiana Futurity (Fillies) (FG): Very Sexcessful (P. Mouton/J. Jacinto) - 78
*City of Roses (PM): Musical Wine (J. Nance/J. Crispin) - 64
Here are the lifetime past performances for "Big Beyer" Pink Viper:
Download pink_viper.PDF
Wait a second...Pink Viper???
Handicapper of the Week:
My picks today: Cricket Miss(#1) in GP 5
Mike Soper
Cricket Miss, a second-time Lasix runner, won the off-the-turf event at a huge price. VERY huge. She paid $72.60 to win. Fantastic pick!
*Honorable Mentions to PGM (Giant Moon, $7.50), Alan (Visionaire, $10), Ed Ackerley (Smooth Air, $20.60), g or g (Giant Moon), chicago gerry (Royally Robbed, $7.20), and Billy (Smooth Air). Good work!
***
Dan,
Does running on a wet track affect the frog? I know friends who own horses don't like them to get their feet wet and then dry out repetitively. Also I know that most horses naturally shed the frog once or twice a year, so when a horse like Timber Reserve goes on the DL is it from an "unnatural" shed or he just shed it and they wait for a new one to grow in?
Steve T
That's a good question. Here's an article on "frogs" that might be of some help. A case like Timber Reserve would be more of the "injured/sensitive" frog type. I'm not sure how wet tracks would affect a frog. Some would argue that the softer surface would be easier on the sensitive foot. Others would say that the horse would sink in the deeper ground, and wouldn't be able to get traction. According to the Wikipedia article, the frog touches the ground on soft going, and that may adversely affect a sensitive area.
http://www.hoofrehab.com/frogtrim.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frog_(horse)
In the Wikipedia link, click "search for frog (horse)" in existing articles, then click on the top link.
***
...so kind as to pull up the PP's for Super Fuse, Flip and Stu, Warm Feelings and Pink Parfait you can get a good idea of what to expect the first couple of years. Provided your horses even get to the races at two.
Many do not. I'm know Super fuse and Flip and stu made it at two ansd I'm pretty sure the other three did NOT...
cayman01
Here are the past performances you requested:
Download Ownership.PDF
***
Noticed when looking at the pedigree of Monba that Secret Hello and Hadif are both in 2nd female line. Can you Secret Hello was a favorite of mine from the midwest in the late 80's Can you post the past formances of those 2?
CraigJ
Same dam, two different kinds of horses. Seret Hello liked to go long while Hadif was pure speed. It shows the difference between Private Account and Clever Trick as sires.
Download secret_hadif.PDF
***
Do you have any idea what happened to the filly Mesmeric (A.P. Indy x Toussaud) b. May 20, 2004 and her half sister Tinge (Kingmambo x Toussaud) b. 2003?
Steve T
Unraced Tinge foaled a Dynaformer colt last April, and was bred to Storm Cat. Mesmeric's last published workout was in mid-July at Belmont Park. She'll either be bred this year, or will attempt a belated debut at age four later in the season.
***
I was trying to locate the blog with the stamina mares, couldn't that item.
Help?
larry
Go to the archives on the right hand side of the blog, and click on January 2008. Scroll down for the blog with the past performances of the stamina mares that Steve T. mentioned.
***
1) Why is Pyro being considered? He won 1 more race than me this year, a nose win in a maiden. He was then crushed 3 times by War Pass. Of course, War Pass will win this vote easily, but why not throw someone else to the wolves who can steal away a vote or two. Geez, I'd almost rather see Wise Answer... at least he won a few races this year.
2) Cornelio Velasquez should be nominated in the jockey category. I was glad to see Albarado get a nod, but why do Gomez and Velazquez have to be automatic nominees? I know those guys have the earnings, but CVelasquez finished just 4 wins shy of Gomez, had more wins than JVelazquez and Albarado, was a close 4th in earnings, and won the Saratoga riding title. Calvin Borel wouldn't have been a terrible choice either.
C
Although Pyro won only once in 2007, his runner-up finishes in the Champagne and Breeders' Cup arguably make him the second-best juvenile of the year. Majestic Warrior and Ready's Image flopped in the Champange. Tale of Ekati and Wicked Style finished behind Pyro in the BC. Colonel John, Into Mischief, and Court Vision had nice late campaigns, but they all skipped the big dance.
I agree with you concerning Cornelio Velasquez. I voted him third on my ballot behind Gomez and Prado. He had an outstanding year, and made a lot of noise on Breeders' Cup day. He does deserve more respect.
***
Anyone else? Who would you put on an Ark, male and female, to carry on the modern thoroughbred? If he were still alive, I would probably choose Danzig-because he was so versatile as a sire and a direct son of Northern Dancer. They are the two leading sires in North America for the last 40 years.
vicstu
It's a fascinating question, and all the answers given thus far make sense to me. It's so tough. Northern Dancer or Mr. Prospector? Danzig or Ribot? Bold Ruler or Storm Cat? Current stallions under consideration include Smart Strike and A.P. Indy. For all-time mares, what about Personal Ensign, Prospectors Delite, Glowing Tribute, Toussaud, Weekend Surprise, Courtly Dee, La Troienne, Fall Aspen, and Relaxing?
I still have to think about it some more.
***
I am interested in your thoughts on the race. I am not sure how to rate the quality of the field he just beat. It has some runners with some good graded stakes experience, but none of them seemed to run well except for Smooth Air. I am hoping this means Smooth Air has a chance to start next time out at a healthy price. With only three starts (all at less than a mile), I think the jury is still out on his future. He at least has earned a right to test the waters in a longer race on the Derby Trail, right?
Ed
I think his connections will give him the chance to stretch out. Whether it will be at Gulfstream may be another story. The Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs might be a nice spot to see if he can go long. Did he beat anything? I doubt it. Tiz It is a maiden, and he was the 7/2 second choice. Coal Play was Zito's third-string at best. Halo Najib may have distance limitations. Big Truck hasn't lived up to his press clippings.
Add in that Smooth Air had a very good trip over a wet track, and I may not want to touch him if he goes off at a short price next time. It's possible that he'll stick around and run in the Sunshine Millions Dash. Eventually, we'll find out if he can go long, but I don't consider him a Derby horse just yet.
***
...I added it when available (Dan, do you have the Dosage for Awesome Chic? I can't find hers...THANKS!)
Alan
Awesome Chic has a DI of 3.00, and a CD of 0.90.
***
Dan,
While researching A.P. Indy I came across two fillies from the same breeding (A.P. Indy x Sophie My Love), Impertinence and Illicit Romance, both with 2006 birthdates. Were they twins or was one a surrogate?
Steve T
Sophie My Love's 2006 foal is named Impertinence. I'm not sure about Illicit Romance. Perhaps there was a name change. I'm pretty sure Sophie My Love didn't foal twins that year.
***
Hey!I was just wondering if anybody has heard anything on La Troviata?
Bill A
The fleet La Traviata has been given over to Todd Pletcher in the wake of Patrick Biancone's suspension. She just worked the other day in Southern California.
***
How about some Signature Move talk tomorrow? And, while we're at it, we'll talk about the NHC, NYRA, and whatever pops into the old noodle.
Take care,
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on January 7, 2008 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
Thanks for the mention of HotW.
Did Noonmark really earn a 105 BSF for his stakes win? That seems like a typo or an exaggeration...
Posted by: PGM on January 07, 2008 at 07:42 PM
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Dan,
Here are a few changes for the injured list:
Alaazo, Majestic Warrior, Riley Tucker and Z Humor are galloping daily.
Laura
Posted by: Laura on January 07, 2008 at 08:02 PM
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Could you please post the PP's for Cigar, Point Given, Fusiachi Pegasus, and Red Bullet... i also would like to give my derby top 3, for whatever its worth...
Giant Moon, Signature Move, and Cowboy Cal,
Thank You
Posted by: joe on January 07, 2008 at 08:38 PM
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Hey Dan, thanks for the PP's on Secret Hello, and Hadif. I had forgotten that Hadif had raced in some graded stakes in Europe before coming to the stakes.
Regarding Signature Move, he beat nobody last Friday, he runs with his head really high, kind of like Fusiachi Pegasus! Hopefully he goes in the Risen Star so we can get some kind of gage on him.
Posted by: craigJ on January 07, 2008 at 10:04 PM
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Although I take immense pleasure in sticking it to Magna, I really have to hold them blameless in the Santa Anita fiasco. In fact I think Ron Charles, the President of Santa Anita has been honest, forthright and done everything he can to make sure that races happen and that the safety of the horses and jockeys are not compromised. To consider and prepare for a transfer of race dates to a competitor, and to pay for the transportation of horses to Hollywood to train is commendable.
Even after all of the rain, Hollywood Park is in racing shape and Golden Gate (which received almost twice the amount of rain) is still operating without incident. How many tracks could withstand that amount of rain and still be in the same shape as dry tracks?
Although there are many who consider synthetics to be the devil's spawn, the Cushion and Tapeta surfaces have (with the exception of the new SA track) performed admirably.
Posted by: Steve T on January 07, 2008 at 10:20 PM
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Joe,
Here are the PP's for Cigar and Point Given. Detailed information on Red Bullet and Fusaichi Pegasus is at their stud farm website and Thoroughbred Times' Interactive Stallion Directory.
Cigar: http://www.drf.com/hcponline/samples/269.pdf
Point Given: http://brisnet.com/samples/Pedigree/head_5044.html
Laura
Posted by: Laura on January 07, 2008 at 10:29 PM
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C,
If they held a filly and mare turf race tomorrow at any track in North America and Nashoba's Key were entered, who would be favored? And holding her first three races as less than admirable is pretty inane considering that they were "required wickets" - her maiden, N1X and a handicap.
Indian Blessing is a nice horse, I just believe that Country Star is a better horse, regardless of what part of the country they run in.
If you look at the horses I selected for Eclipse awards, the majority are not west coast horses.
I agree that the Eclipse awards are more or less a beauty contest. I think the best horse in training hands down is Daaher, and I think he would absolutely burn Curlin or anybody else to the ground in a mile race. I think his last two races were two of the best races by ANY horse in 2007.
I know you don't like synthetic tracks, but they (less Poly) have been ultra consistent surfaces that offer no favoritism or prejudice to dirt horses - as evidenced by Hystericalady, Idiot Proof, Smokey Stover, Midnight Lute, Coco Belle, Maryfield, et al when they ran on dirt. Would you rather bet on a slop fest like Gulfstream or on Hollywood or Golden Gate when it rains? Santa Anita will solve their problems.
Oh and by the way, the track with the most closures in 2007 (also 2005, 2004 and 2003) was Aqueduct.
It's not like we run a Mickey Mouse horse racing operation. The state with the highest handle? California. The state with the highest attendance? California. The state with the largest purse total? California. All without a single slot machine.
Posted by: Steve T on January 07, 2008 at 10:57 PM
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This is not another Beyer rant...instead, I am going to try and explain why I view most BSF figures as misleading and vapid.
Pink Viper gets a 107 BSF for winning a cheap stakes race at Aqu. OK, right...Over 10 BSF points higher than that one's best race. How very AndrewBeyerish...
Besides Stunt Man, was there any horse with class in this race? The big problem that I have with what the BSF has become is that they never take into account the level of competition or the pace of the race. This was basically what boxing officianados would call Pink Viper beating Stunt Man and a bunch of "tomato cans"...and at a tepid pace at that:
24.1, 48.1, 1:12.2, 1:42 for a mile and 70 yards.
The pace that Hard Spun set for the Kentucky Derby, and the BC Classic, for 10 furlongs (almost 2 furlongs further) was faster. So what if a speed horse like Pink Viper held on or fought back and won? Speed horses are supposed to win at 8 panels when they are allowed to set that kind of pace. And strangley enough, a month earlier, Stunt Man beat Pink Viper at the same distance at the same track and off of slightly faster fractions and a final time of 1:41.2. BSF that day was 95 for PV, 99 for Stunt Man. Apples to Oranges? Possibly, but its relevant. Was there a variance in the avg. winning times for all races run at that distance at that track that day, as opposed to a month later?
In other words, why is it that a final time of 1:42.1 merits a BSF that is measurably higher in January than a final time of 1:41.2 that was run on the same track 1 month earlier? That is a signifigant variable. Groundkeepers become nervous if average times vary widely at the same track on any given day. Injuries usually go up on tracks that play that inconsistantly.
In other words, comparable times from the same day the races are run a statistically insignifigant.
Indeed, given the caliber of horses, whether it is a stakes or allowance race, fillies or colts, is there ever any such thing as a "comparable race"?
I know, I know, different days, different times, and Beyer is nothing if not predictable. And I do not envy his job, or the out of control system he has created which has now been outdated with the advent of synthetic surfaces (which Beyer admits he can not gauge accurately).
Considering that many uninformed horsplayers view the BSF the same as the BCF power rankings for college football, Beyer is up against it from the get-go. Still, the figures exist in a vacuum sometimes, from what I see.
If nothing else, this is the reason why I am very wary of BSFs which are more than 5 points higher than an older horse has ever receieved. And Pink Viper is in the handicap division now. I actually like Pink Viper, but I do not trust this 107 and not against this level of competition. Just look at the ppfs chart that Dan printed out...it says it all.
In greyhound racing the runners are assigned power point numbers which reflect their speed against the level of competition and class level of the race. Hence, setting a track record against grade C greyhounds would earn less of a number than running near that same speed against top grade A greyhounds. And then that number is reached by factoring in the avg. times at that distance that week at that track. The system is known as Compu Power, and is done by a computer.
Beyer takes none of this into account. His system is flawed in that respect, but he never intended it as a catch-all. The system should be called the Beyer Comparative Speed Factor- because all it does is grade against allegedly "comparable" speeds based on final times at the same track. As explained, there is rarely such a creature.
We all know that some tracks simply run faster than others. Do we really need a system that supposedly tells us what a good handicapper should already know? And worse, the system has evolved into a parady of inflated numbers and just as deflated numbers-some which just seem bizarre.
So, use the BSFs until your hearts are content...all you apologists. For me, I ignore the BSFs nowdays for this reason and too many others to list. It seems as though at least 2-4 times a months I find myself looking at the BSF's and saying "Give me a break!"
How does this come into play as a handicapper? Consider:
based on Beyer numbers alone, Hard Spun was no where near as fast as many of the horses he beat in the gr.1 Kings Bishop. Further, did you know that Curlin actually had a lower BSF for his runaway win in the Arkansas Derby than Flying First Class did for his allowance win at 6 panels?
Its true, Curlin's BSF at Ark. Derby merited a 103; while FFC's meaningless win in a 5K allowance at 6 furlongs merited a 107!
Every time I am at the OTB or at the track I see novices assuming that BSFs are some kind of speed AND class rating tool. FFC's 107 over Curlin's 103 was a reliable indicator of each horses speed, eh? And, of course, FFC never ran anything near that 107 again, just like Pink Viper will never run a 107 again, either.
Many handicappers surmised, based on BSF numbers alone, that for the Preakness Hard Spun was nowhere near as fast as Flying First Class up to 7 furlongs. And that Xchanger was completely outclassed and would be run off his feet by FFC if he went with that one. After all, FFC had higher BSFs than Xchanger and far higher BSFs for sprints than Hard Spun.
Of course, I knew this was all nonsensical conjecture based on meaningless numbers. As C likes to say, horses do not run numbers, they run races...At the Preakness, FFC and Xchanger hooked up in a speed duel which was won by Xchanger (who was faster up to 5 furlongs). Unfortunately for Hard Spun, for whatever reason, he was moved prematurely and roared past both before the 6 furlong marker, after rating just off of those two, and set the fastest 6 furlongs ever run in the Preakness (and ended up holding on for third). Yet, based on BSFs, FFC should have been faster to 7 furlongs than any other horse in that race-speed duel or not. And consider, Lukas was crowing before the race that "Hard Spun is not the fastest horse in this race- my horse (FFC)is." No doubt egged into saying such a baseless assertion by relying on the speed figures Andy Beyer assigned. No doubt FFC was a speedball, but speedballs do not outrun pure speed with class.
Hard Spun could have flown past FFC at any point had Pino let him...and done so effortlessly. And Lukas overlooked Xchanger, thanks again, no doubt, to Beyer Speed Figures.
So, FFC can get an inflated and meaningless high BSF for winning against a motely crew at 7.5 furlongs, while Hard Spun can set sharp fractions in the Kentucky Derby and hold on for a strong 2nd and receive a BSF that is 1 point lower. How many 10 furlong races are run at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May? Where does Beyer get that figure from- what is comparable?
So, if you are going to trust the BSFs, rely on them for the extremely limited tools that they are. They are hardly the equivilant of BCF power rankings in college football; instead, they
are limited and should be used accordingly- or not at all.
Posted by: vicstu on January 08, 2008 at 01:15 AM
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Hey Guys,
Im not an expert on breeding like some of you but what do guys think of Sunday Silence (single handidly changed the face of Japan Racing) and Candy Stripes (Candy Ride and Invasor). I would probably take Toussad as my mare on the ark.
Scianc 22
Posted by: scianc22 on January 08, 2008 at 03:39 AM
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Sorry about the double-post, but wanted to respond to a couple of posts from yesterday.
C,
I knew that you were a New Yorker and a fan of the Giants, but not a typical fan of Big Blue. In fact, "typical" is not the word I would use to discribe you as a horseplayer, either. And I am not surprised that you do not back your team with a wager or feel all that positive about them either.
But that being said, you still had to be tickled to death with the way Manning and Big Blue played Sunday in Tampa. And I think many of us have nowhere to go but up in 2008--I was happy to see 2007 go into the memory bank. You are not alone in hoping this year is better than last.
Johnny Z,
I like your choices, especially Northern Dancer. And I made an innocent error in my last post or two by accidentally referring to Sadlers Wells as a progeny of Danzig, when the correct words should have been progeny as well as siblings of Danzig. Both being from Northern Dancer.
And I have not given up on Wise Answer, all anyone has to do is replay any one of his Florida Stallion Series races, especially the In Reality from Oct. 13 at Calder, to realize he may be something special if handled correctly- or even incorrectly. After all, he was the official top 2 year old from Calder and a fellow Calder 2 year old (turned 3) just won the Hutcheson Stakes (Smooth Air). Another nice colt possibly on the Derby trail...
And I am glad Turkish Tryst has gotten some love...I think Turkoman (out of Alydar) is a very underrated broodmare sire and she also has old Derby Dan lines (and Roberto, Little Current and Nashua all in her family tree).
Steve T,
I liked your picks for the Eclispe...I may not agree with every single one, but I understand your choices and think they may well play out that way...and I know AP Indy is a very nice stallion with a plethora of classy runners that he has thrown on the track. And I think he may prove even better in the long run as a broodmare sire.
But your point is well taken. I cannot wait for the first crop of Hard Spun runners to hit the track. Curious to see how he stacks up in the first few years to his noteworthy sire and his other siblings and relatives.
A point to remember, Hard Spun was undefeated at two starts on Polytrack (both grade II races, both 9 furlongs--against good competition...so his offspring may take to turf and artificial surfaces well.
And Alan,
Regarding your choices for the Ark, it is nice to see the humanitarian in you speak. And you raise a good point. Perhaps someone should nominate George Washington for our mythical Ark...after all, he is from a son of Danzig and Europe's leading sire (Danehill), and his pedigree is impressive. Dare I say, his accomplishments in Europe drawf the limited, but impressive, career of Barbaro here in the U.S. ( I realize it is heresy or taboo to say this...).
And I agree about the Jags, although I am not sure what to think of the Patriots...they obviously were the best team in the league for 17 weeks-and their offense is great. I am not so sure they did not peak in the middle of the season, because they barely beat a couple of teams that the Colts and Jaguars crushed, respectively.
Not sure how much of that is getting everyone's best shot, or how much it is the Pats playing possum. Both the Pats and Jags beat the Chargers rather easily, but that was earlier in the year. And the Colts are still champs until someone knocks them out in the playoffs. But that spread that the oddsmakers are giving the Pats, take the Jags and the points (and I live in the Jacksonville area). So, take that for what it is worth. I am from Tampa Bay and originally Maryland-and as you know, we were at the Super Bowl festivities for Super Bowl XXXV in Tampa, in which everyone (but us) thought the Giants would blow out the Ravens. Didn't happen.
The Bucs slapped around the favored Raiders as well in Super Bowl XXXVII. Sometimes a good defense and strong running game can slow down and dominate an aerial show.
One thing is for sure...the Jags do have a good running game and they already beat the best defense in the NFL twice at their house (regardless of what anyone says-it is very hard to win in Pittsburgh). The Pats beat the Steelers in Mass. and did so without the Steeler's Troy Apolamaulo (sp?). The Jags were the 1st team in the Steeler's 75 year history to win twice in Pitt. in the same year.
So maybe they are charmed. Every year there is a team like that in the NFL playoffs that makes it to at least the Conference Title game. Or, then again, maybe they are SOL because the Pats are just that much better than everyone else...
We shall see. But the Giants, Ravens and Eagles gave them all they could handle later in the season, and 2 of those 3 teams are not in the playoffs and did not have a winning record. Why?
Brady said they went out and tried to crush every opponent. They sure did not crush those teams, and the Jets played them tough as well. I also thought the Colts outplayed them earlier in the year. Yet, its the sign of a great team to find a way to win every game, even the ones they are outplayed in.
Like I said, Im not sure what to make of their last few games, but I am sure I will in a few weeks.
Posted by: vicstu on January 08, 2008 at 03:42 AM
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Dan, any word on Noble Fire who was vanned off race 8 Sunday at Aqueduct?
Posted by: TOM D. on January 08, 2008 at 03:50 AM
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Once again, the power of the Illman blog shakes the horseracing community!
Banner Headline link the the DrudgeReport-like Equidaily Racing Journal:
Under "Synthetic Surfaces Under Fire":
"DRF's Illman Blog on Golden Gate Park Tapeta Surface:" The rest is in the banner two lines beneath the picture of the bottle of Drano in reference to S. Anita...
Read the rest at:
FYI. And some of you thought this Blog never got the attention of the establishment, huh? Too bad the have never hyperlinked to some of C's comments on artificial surfaces. LOL.
And do not even get me started on BSF figs from this past weekend. A joke.
Posted by: svhill on January 08, 2008 at 07:55 AM
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Seems like the sealed, undrained track at SA is the subject of much ridicule.
Here's another nugget or two on the wet, sealed track at Santa Anita, from CBSSports.com:
Jockey Mike Smith on SA sealing the cushion track surface, "Maybe horses will bounce on it, like reindeer. On Dasher, On Dancer..."
"Its like the Bonneville Salt Flats" quipped jockey Richard Migliore, who had just walked the surface..."They might as well run on this." he said, pointing to the concrete surface near the clocker's corner.
Way to go, California...or at least Santa Anita. Another day without racing. Did any of the Einsteins out there take this into consideration?
How bout it Californians? Synthetic track lovers? Steve T, C, Slew (if he did not ride off into the sunset with his 30 something girlfriend)?
Read about it at CBSSports.com or link to it at Equidaily.com under "Santa Anita Seals Surface in Anticipation of Rain."
I dont mean to make fun of this, but its so frustrating-the short-sidedness of it all, that its either cry or laugh in spite of it. I choose the latter.
Posted by: svhill on January 08, 2008 at 08:20 AM
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Dan,
Thanks so much for the Dosage info!! I added a 'POOL entry' to the contest to include "free agent" Derby wannabes - the first 'POOL entry' is Signature Move. Upcoming races for entry horses this week: Blackberry Road, Mad Flatter (BTW, a great "undertheradar" pick) and Z Fortune are entered in the LeComte Saturday (the Lecomte is going to be an good early prep - Texas Glitter is also entered as well as He's Eze -> flattered by Smooth Air's win in the Hutchenson) and Hyrule will try to break his maiden in GP9 Friday. Updated contest spreadsheet:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL6U-SO_z3pEXw
Speaking of Signature Move, Guillot/Southern Equine bought the dam of Daaher and Spun Sugar, Irish Cherry, for $2.7mil at KEEJAN yesterday. She's in foal to Ghostzapper... And Bernardini just had his first babe (a filly out of Belle Nuit, the dam of Octave.)
I am handicapping my nemesis track TAM this morning (since it's an NHC track, I figure it's good practice...or more likely, will totally psych me out!!) And what a card it is: MC8K -> C10Kn2L -> C5Kn2y -> MC50K -> C16Kn2L -> C8Kn2L -> OC62.5Knc -> OC32Kn2x -> C16K -> MC25K. I'm going to play around with Formulator to see if I can find any interesting TAM trainer trends, particularly for the MC races...
Good luck on this Global Warming Tuesday!!
Posted by: Alan on January 08, 2008 at 09:11 AM
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Hi Steve,
"If they held a filly and mare turf race tomorrow at any track in North America and Nashoba's Key were entered, who would be favored?"
Depends who runs. If Precious Kitten and Lahudood are involved, I'd say one of them. More importantly, who would WIN? While Nashoba's Key had a rail trip in the BC, she also had plenty of chances to get out of the box and failed to do so. Once clear, she was just plain outkicked to the wire by turf granny Honey Ryder.
As far as the Eclipse for champion turf filly, you have to look at 2007 turf races only (not cushion/poly). Like it or not, the facts are that her first 3 were against lowly Cal breds, she won the YellowRibbon by 3/4 length and was defeated in the BC, albeit the rail trip. Based on that, it's really hard to hand her the filly turf crown over Lahudood or Precious Kitten, who should be neck-and-neck in the voting, deservedly so.
I'm not saying Nashoba's Key is a bad turf filly, and I'm not even saying she can't beat a Precious Kitten or a Lahudood... I'm just saying she hasn't done enough to be labeled as the best turf female in the country.
"I just believe that Country Star is a better horse"
"the best horse in training hands down is Daaher, and I think he would absolutely burn Curlin or anybody else to the ground in a mile race."
You're certainly entitled to those opinions, but I'm not on board in either case.
"Would you rather bet on a slop fest like Gulfstream or on Hollywood or Golden Gate when it rains?"
Neither.
I wasn't bashing California or Santa Anita per se the other day. I was really making fun of the synthetic revolution and the fact that one of their biggest selling points is that they are (supposedly) 'all-weather' surfaces, yet Santa Anita had to cancel 3 days running now. As I've stated several times before, my feelings about replacing the dirt at once-venerable places like Keeneland and Santa Anita have absolutely NOTHING to do with WAGERING.
Posted by: C on January 08, 2008 at 10:40 AM
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I don't think the problems at Santa Anita say anything about synthetic surfaces. The cushion track at Hollywood is ready to race on and they got the same amount of rain. The tepeta track at Golden Gate got more rain and is fine for racing.
Obviously, something went wrong with the drainage system at Santa Anita. They made an error. And I think they made it worse by tampering with the mixture. But it doesn't mean synthetics are a disaster at all.
Look at the Hollywood fall meet that just concluded and compare it to when they ran on dirt. It's not close, the surface has revitalized that track.
Golden Gate I'm confident will have similar results when they conclude their meet.
Arlington has benefited, even Keenland has benefited.
Because there was a drainage mistake at one track doesn't mean you can wipe away the evidence out there that synthetic surfaces increase starters per race, increase handle on your product, and somewhat improve safety statistics.
Anyone wants to dispute that I'd like to see evidence. I haven't done the research on that, I'll be honest, but I'm pretty confident that no one will disagree with those assertions.
You might hate it because it's different, or there are no biases to take advantage of, or whatever other reason you want to have.
But I challenge the haters to come forward with some evidence that it doesn't increase runners per race, the amount bet at the track, and horse safety.
Posted by: Jason on January 08, 2008 at 11:25 AM
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It's not the fact that it's a synthetic track that caused SA to close. They just didn't install it properly. They should have made it like Hollywood Park, but instead they wanted to make it faster and with different material that caused the draining problem.
Posted by: RJ on January 08, 2008 at 11:29 AM
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Wow a lot of comments on the track at the Great Race Place. My two cents says they were very concerned about the Del Mar situation. At Del Mar the track was great in the morning for training with cooler temperatures. When the heat moved in for the afternoon the track played like an 80 year old foursome on a geriatric special. Based on the concerns with Del Mar the manufacturer adjusted the synthetic mix to handle the heat. I cannot hold Santa Anita responsible for what I believe to be a manufacturing problem. If we must have a villian, how about the folks who mandated the tracks go synthetic? Hindsight is always 20/20 but I am sure the CHRB wishes it gave the tracks some additional time to install the synthetic surfaces. I agree with Steve T, Santa Anita will get this worked out.
And Steve T., many times the track closures at Aqueduct were because of the road conditions. The inner track was usually ready to roll.
I personally think Nashoba's Key is all race horse. I think she got a lousy ride in the BC. I was at DelMar the day Victor Espinoza tried to ride two horses in a four horse stake - help me out I can't remember the name of the race - and gave Joe Talamo a riding lesson. Despite a poor ride from Talamo the horse just decided she was not going to lose. I love those kind of horses. Watch the tape of the race I am thinking of, it was run on the first Saturday or Sunday of August of 2007 - it was a beaut.
Posted by: Ray Manley on January 08, 2008 at 12:01 PM
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vicstu,
Take a breath.The beyer speed figures are simply a mathematical calculation of how fast a horse has run, factoring in the relative speed of the track on that day.The number is what it is.It is up to the player to determine if the number was accomplished due to a track bias,lone speed, a sloppy track freakout,etc.Don't dismiss it or treat it as gospel. It is just one more handicapping factor,albeit in my opinion,a very significant one.Since horses with high beyer numbers are usually well bet you must be a big winner,since you totaly ignore them.
Posted by: kelso13 on January 08, 2008 at 12:41 PM
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RJ,
They weren't trying to make it faster, they were trying to make sure it could withstand the higher heat in the San Gabriel Valley (much different than Inglewood).
C,
I guess we are at our usual "agree to disagree" point. If you look at my Eclipse picks, I chose Precious Kitten for the turf title, but Nashoba's Key for older female.
Ray,
I agree that Talamo's ride was not the best. He is a good jockey, but still green as grass.
Posted by: Steve T on January 08, 2008 at 01:05 PM
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The Beyers are the starting point, but even Andy as he says in Beyer on Speed makes the point of knowing how they are earned.
Posted by: Pru on January 08, 2008 at 02:42 PM
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johnnyz,
Here's an interesting article about declining sire lines I thought you might be interested in:
Posted by: Calvin Carter on January 08, 2008 at 03:40 PM
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Calvin,
Jeff Scott's article in The Saratogian kind of puts in laymans terms why soundness and, stamina in today's thoroughbred is dwindling and, will continue to do so maybe at a faster rate than is has the last 6/7 years.
The Advent of Damascus, Man O'War, and Ribot bloodlines disappearing from todays graded stakes winners has little do with those lines not being able to produce sound winners, but has everything to do with the greed end of commercial breeding, (getting a 2 yr. old in training to run 1/8 10.2 or under).
I know you subscribe to Bloodhorse. This week there is section interviewing many top trainers on the additional B.C races. Most of them like the additional races but, the interesting content was, except D. Wayne Lucas most of them thought the 1 1/2 marathon would be good for racing in the long run. I guess time will tell.
I don't have a strong opinion on the synthetic tracks other than I think the poly @ Del-Mar is the worse racing surface in history. While I don't hold a strong belief, I do feel the new tracks COULD POSSIBLY change the major players in the breeding industry's mating thoughts.
I know you read the 12/8 issue of BH and, most of the biggies interviewed are taking a wait and, see posture. I do feel that the true nick aspect of mating will over shadow e-nick mating in at least the next couple of years.
This Thursday, 12 noon eastern time Alan Porter will be the guest on Bloodhorse Talking Horses. I won't be able to participate but, can't wait to read the transcript. I really have a great deal of respect for Alan, both from his pedigree aspects and mating thoughts.
Anyway thanks for the heads-up on the article. When I had alot of time The Saratogian was daily reading for me. Still look when I have the time.
BTW did you see in todays paper that Michael Veitch listed his top 10 3 yr. olds? Not much difference in most of ours other than he not only had the filly Country Star but, also the filly Mushka. Appears to me that maybe someone besides myself feels that this yrs. 3 yr old colts are a pretty close bunch to call?
The Lecomte may shed alittle light this weekend as it has came up a very competive race. I hate it that the colt Texas Fever is weighted so high. Really like this colt's pedigree. Was really hoping this one might fly under the rader untill after the 1st Derby future pool. I don't bet much on futures, but TF would be tempting at 30/1 or better. I am not making picks as I have not handicapped the race, but another that I feel could make some noise in this one is the local horse Star Guitar? Let me know your thoughts.
Good Luck to All!
Posted by: johnnyz on January 09, 2008 at 01:21 AM
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WILL YOU PLEASE POST THE PP'S FOR gENTLEMEN AGAIN? I've tried to google it but you can imagine what happens when you google "Gentlemen"
Posted by: Brandon on May 23, 2009 at 08:54 AM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 