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FormBlog | February 26, 2008
Weekend thoughts, Beyers, questions
It was just another day at the office for War Pass on Sunday. He punched in, punched his four "rivals" in the gut, and then punched out. Don't be upset if you have trouble recalling the names of Web Gem, Chadwell, Jet Run, and Dylan's Choice when you tell War Pass stories to your grandkids. Not too many folks remember Nathan Mann, Tami Mauriello, Jack Roper, Johnny Paychek, and Gus Dorazio, but they're as much a part of the Joe Louis story as "Jersey" Joe Walcott, Billy Conn, and Max Schmeling. Champions need opponents, any and all opponents, in order to keep their legacy alive. And no matter what happens between now and the first Saturday in May, War Pass will always be a Breeders' Cup and Eclipse champion. Sunday's paid workout was a perfect promotional tool. The champ scored a knockout, and we, in the stands, were left with the same questions we had before the event. What happens when War Pass gets hooked by another speed? What happens when he faces real horses at more demanding distances? Those questions remain unanswered, but there's no doubt we left the track, or our televisions, or our computer screens, wanting more. And more we'll get in the Tampa Bay Derby...About thirty minutes before the War Pass race, Ringmaster Frank Stronach, fresh off his successful foray into the world of Energy Drinks, decided to unveil his new creation. Forget Timex, Rolex, and Tag Heuer. It was "Frank's Sundial," strategically located on "Frank's Energy Beach," that made its debut for the Fountain of Youth. The time was as fake as some of the "Energy Girls." Just for an update, the "new" fractions are 24.03, 47.62, 1:11.52, 1:36.32, and 1:50.07 (believe it....or not, Mr. Ripley?). Cool Coal Man tripped out, and his race showed the potency of inside post positions in two turn dirt races at Gulfstream. For the meet, posts five and out are 2 for 79 at 1 1/8 miles or greater on the main track. Have to give Elysium Fields credit for his runner-up finish as it was only his first start outside of the maiden ranks. Court Vision ran on well to be third in his first start since the Remsen. Monba was simply terrible...The extremely consistent Spring House received an excellent ride from Garrett Gomez to take the San Luis Obispo. On the Acorn ran a bang-up race in his first start off our Disabled List...At Gulfstream, Einstein proved that, on his best day, he is one of the top turf runners in the country. He made a fairly early move, and still outfinished everyone. Thorn Song, as usual, was extremely hard to handle in the early stages. Julien Leparoux looked lost on Shamdinan...No, your eyes weren't playing tricks on you at Tampa Bay on Saturday. It was Cosmonaut strutting into the winner's circle. Soldier's Dancer ran his usual solid race, but he needs pace in order to adequately setup his late kick.
***
Let's take a look at the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes races, shall we?
*San Luis Obispo (SA): Spring House (J. Canani/G. Gomez) - 103
*Gulfstream Park Turf (GP): Einstein - Brz (H. Pitts/J. Lezcano) - 102
*Tampa Bay (Tam): Cosmonaut (P. Serpe/E. Prado) - 100
*Delta Mile (DeD): Beta Capo (S. Asmussen/G. Melancon) - 98
*Fountain of Youth (GP): Cool Coal Man (N. Zito/K. Desormeaux) - 98
*Honest Lady (SA): Tiz Elemental (C. Gaines/V. Espinoza) - 97
*Mountain Valley (OP): Ferragamo (J. Jones/J. Johnson) - 96
*Rare Treat (Aqu): Runway Rosie (G. Contessa/R. Maragh) - 93
*Tomball (Hou): Scrappy Roo (J. Locke/M. Escobar) - 91
*Docent (Pha): Chase the Line (R. Seeger/M. Charles) - 89
*Busher (Aqu): Little Belle (K. McLaughlin/R. Maragh) - 88
*Bay Meadows Distaff Sprint (BM): Reba Is Tops (B. Klokstad/R. Baze) - 87
*Bayou (FG): Candy Ball (A. Leggio Jr./M. Mena) - 86
*Santa Teresa (Sun): Run Right Thru (H. Dominguez/A. Juarez Jr.) - 86
*Golden Triangle (DeD): Miss Atlantic City (J. Desormeaux/C. Lanerie) - 84
*Curribot (Sun): Broke Sharply (G. Cross/D. Sterling) - 83
*Grasmick (Fon): Tonight Rainbow (B. Caster/Y. Yaranga) - 77
*Maryland Racing Media (Lrl): Cryptoquip (H. Motion/J. Rose) - 76 (*All Smiles finished first with 82 Beyer, but was disqualified to second)
*Valdale (TP): Valentine Fever (G. Foley/T. Pompell) - 76
Beyer Not Yet Available:
*Palo Verde (TuP): Leonides (V. Cerin/R. Migliore) - ???
Here are the lifetime past performances for Spring House:
Handicapper(s) of the Week:
Win Contenders:
Cool Coal Man - improved off his two year old best in his first start this year, but not by a huge margin, which would suggest an even better effort here. Also figures to get a perfect trip on the rail behind the speed. His breeding suggest two turns will be his strong point and his best is yet to come.
BAAA - 2,3,4/1,12/5/5
Lenny
Not only did he have Cool Coal Man right on top, but Lenny nailed a tough Pick Four at Gulfstream. The 3/1/5/5 number returned $1,264.10 for a dollar wager. Tremendous handicapping!
***
That being said, my picks for the FOY are:
1st-Cool Coal Man (because he had a good start a month ago)
Now I like horses like Court Vision and Ana Nakal's chances of winning the Derby much more than Cool Coal Mans, but he needs the graded earnings which is why Nick Zito needs to have him ready to win on Sunday. If he doesn't secure some graded earnings, the way he's brought up to the derby won't mean much)
Stephen Taylor
Dan; I like your thinking on the Fountain Of Youth, but my take is a bit different. I plan to go with Elysium Fields, figuring that the blinkers really did wake him up. I have seen this pattern before, and for a couple of bucks, I am willing to bet him to win. I also plan to box him with Cool Coal Man, Monba, and the regally-bred Adriano in an exacta and dime superfecta.
Van Savant
This one is a tough one to bet with much confidence for me. Going to bet a W/P on #1 Cool Coal Man.
johnny z
Fountain of Youth--Cool Coal Man
Greg
You guys got a nice price on a horse with competitive speed figures as well as a recency advantage over his main competition. Cool Coal Man returned $16.60 to win. The exacta box with Elysium Fields returned a healthy $87.80 for each dollar wagered. Van Savant also gave out a $16.40 exacta (for a buck) at Santa Anita on Saturday.
Gulfstream 10- Zaftig(6-1) Love this horses pedigree and the fact Johnny V gets the call. This horse took lots of early money in first start, which ended up being a pretty solid MSW. my only concern is that this one may be a setup for the turf
bigblue0710
Zaftig ran away and hid from her opposition in the finale on Saturday. She paid $7.20 to win.
SA play...Love Tiz Elemental in the 7th @ SA- Scratched from the Sunshine Millions F&M Sprint b/c of the questionable track surface- Now looks primed for a big '08 campaign for Carla Gaines.
Steve V
Tiz Elemental got it done for the underrated Carla Gaines at a cool $10 mutuel.
Honorable Mention: Marc R. had four winners at Gulfstream on Sunday while Sam gave out Timeless Mike at Sunland on Sunday, and larryk picked Cayambe to win at Santa Anita. Steve T correctly selected the fifth race exacta at Santa Anita on Monday.
***
Hi Dan, That old New York warrior Say Florida Sandy had his first crop hit the track last year. He isn't expected to set the world on fire......not an exactly fashionable stallion, to say the least....but I'm still interested in how they do because I loved him to distraction. Could you please post his lifetime PPs for me? I would love to take a trip down memory lane. Thanks.
Margi
If you were a fan of New York racing in the 1990's, then you had to admire the grit of Say Florida Sandy. Here are his lifetime past performances:
Download say_florida_sandy.PDF
He stands at Buckridge Farm in New York for a $5,000 stud fee. From his first crop of foals in 2007, Say Florida Sandy was represented by Finger Lakes stakes winner Say Toba Sandy. Here's a video clip of the old guy taking a walk:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ra4mWHo5cCw&feature=related
***
Dan-Can you tell me what Alvarado's ROI is at Gulfstream? It must be through the roof. . . Thanks
B
It is indeed. Junior Alvarado is 8-89 (8%) with a $5.91 ROI at Gulfstream this meet.
***
i'm new to horse racing so here goes. if a horse comes in 5th in the race is the beyers speed for that horse or for the winner.
jaime
Welcome to the greatest game in the world! If you're looking at an individual horse's past performances, then the Beyer Speed Figure (indicated in bold) is for that particular horse. Click on Say Florida Sandy's lifetime past performances (up above). In his last race, Say Florida Sandy earned a 71 Beyer for his seventh-place finish. In the winning Beyer Speed Figures listed above, you'll note that All Smiles finished first in the Maryland Racing Media with an 82, but was disqualified and placed second. The runner-up, Cryptoquip, earned a 76 Beyer Speed Figure.
***
Dan, I see that Mario Pino has had several mounts at AQU the last several weeks and was wondering if he has moved his tack to NY. I don't think he was getting many mounts at LRL and this maybe a good move. I think he can compete. Your thoughts.
Michael H.
He's in New York for the time being. From David Grening's column on February 11:
Provided there is racing at Aqueduct come Saturday, Mario Pino will join the jockey colony here that day.
Pino, who last fall became the 15th jockey to reach the 6,000-win plateau, will ride first call for trainer David Jacobson, who through Sunday was tied for fourth in the trainer standings at this meet with 17 wins. Pino is represented by Bill Castle, whose father, Jerome, gave Jacobson horses to train more than 25 years ago.
"He's one of the great riders," Jacobson said. "To hook up with someone like that is an honor. Not that I'm not happy with the riders I'm using now, but I also have a long-term relationship going back over 25 years with the Castle family. Jerome Castle, Bill's father, gave me my first opportunity. It goes back a long time."
Pino, 46, has been riding regularly on the Maryland/Delaware circuit for most of his career. With 6,030 career victories, Pino will soon pass Johnny Longden (6,032) for 14th place on the all-time wins list.
It is expected that Pino will ride in New York until Delaware Park opens its meet April 19.
For the current Aqueduct meeting, Pino shows a record of 33 starts, 7 wins, 6 seconds, and 6 thirds. That's good for a 21% win clip, and a ROI of $1.48.
Just a glance at his track record shows that he can compete on this circuit, but it looks like he'll go back to purse-friendly Delaware in April.
***
FormBlog Master Dan, I'd like to make a suggestion on of this blog's best things: the Disabled List. Why not add the date that the injury is reported/added in the top portion of the spreadsheet? That way, it may lead to less confusion over a horse appearing in the three main lists: Injured, Deleted, and Recently Added. (e.g. Ah Day)
PGM
Good idea. I'm thinking of getting rid of "Added," and simply putting the dates in for the main portion of the DL. If anyone has suggestions on improving the DL, let me know. It's on the right hand side of the blog. Thanks.
***
Love your column. I read it religously from work every week. 2 of my favorite horses of all time are Miner's Gamble (always brought his A game at a square price) and Beat Hollow. Any clue what either of them are up? Also, can you please post their lifetime stats?
Jordan
Beat Hollow stands at stud in England. Here's more information:
http://www.juddmonte.co.uk/stallions/beathollow/default.aspx
Not sure about Miner's Gamble. Here are their past performances:
Download beat_hollow.PDF
***
As for the FOY, I would like to hear from Pletcher what happened to Monba. It looked like he got roughed up on the first turn.
owenized
Supposedly the horse cut up his legs after being banged around at the start. It still had to be considered a disappointing performance.
***
Does anyone know why the super at GP was paid as 5-3-2-1 and not 5-3-2-6? Dylan's choice is listed as #6 in all wagering outlets and was shown as finishing 4th on any chart I can find on the internet and, yet, the payoff did not include him. I had a heavy wager on 5/2,3/2,3/6 and thought I had it won until I saw that the payoff did not include #6. I immediately assumed a DQ or PMO runner, but neither show up. Any help here would be great.
TommyJersey
Dylan's Choice was disqualified from fourth, and placed fifth for interference through the stretch run.
***
Hi Dan,Everyone
Did it look like Elysium Fields would have won this race [ FOY ] if he was not cut off and had to check . How did the gallop out look ?Dan what is up with the TIN MAN .
Rex
The Tin Man is recovering from a cracked knee at Richard Mandella's barn at Santa Anita, and should be turned out to a new life of leisure at River Edge Farm pretty soon. From Jay Hovdey's column on February 20:
On the other side of the continent, another battle-scarred racing warrior turned the ripe old age of 10. The Tin Man, still in recovery mode in stall No. 1 at Richard Mandella's Santa Anita barn, was foaled on Feb. 18, 1998.
With any luck at all, The Tin Man would have been back in some sort of action by now for his owners and breeders, Ralph and Aury Todd. Maybe not in the 1 1/2-mile San Luis Obispo Handicap, which is Saturday's feature at Santa Anita, and which he won in February 2003. But certainly some kind of racing plan would have been cooking, if only he hadn't cracked a knee while emerging from the anesthesia administered during diagnostic surgery last October.
It was tense for awhile. The Tin Man's self-inflicted injury was more serious than any of the several racing maladies that he had weathered through a seven-year career, during which he won $3.3 million. Founder in an off leg was very possible, and the fracture was complex. But with the help of the occasional tranquilizer, and more hands on care than you can imagine, he is out of danger and ready for the next chapter of his remarkable life.
"We probably could have sent him to the farm a month ago, but I kind of like having him around," said Mandella, who can be seen late most mornings, hand-walking The Tin Man and letting him bask in the sun.
"The X-rays show good bone growth in the knee, although he's developed an arthritis on the outside of the knee," Mandella said. "He walks a little stiff and he always will. But he's dealing with it okay, and he's not in any pain."
The Tin Man, once a free-running geriatric hero who won the Arlington Million at age 8 and the Shoemaker Mile at 9, now must be content with being described as pasture sound. That pasture, at least for the time being, will be at River Edge Farm in the Santa Ynez Valley, where farm manager Russell Drake will provide The Tin Man with a home for as long as he wants.
"He'll need a little time to be let down and get used to living in a pasture," Mandella added. "If I know him, he will try to run off."
While Cool Coal Man was certainly tiring in the final furlong of the Fountain of Youth, one can only guess whether Elysium Fields would have come back and beat him if he was allowed to stay on the rail. Elysium Fields seemed to get the better of Cool Coal Man during the gallop out. This would indicate to me that Elysium Fields was at least running hard through the wire and into the clubhouse turn, and is a positive sign. To me, Cool Coal Man's drifting finish coupled with getting beat on the gallop-out indicates that he was a very tired horse at the end of the FOY.
***
Dan,
Nevermind on Bright One & South of Broad. I did some research and discovered that Bright One is deceased and that South of Broad was retired by Stonerside as a stallion.
kchris
For any other bloggers interested in the two horses, Bright One was euthanized after breaking a sesamoid bone in his left foreleg following a fourth-place finish in last year's Richter Scale BC Sprint at Gulfstream. South of Broad stands for a private stud fee at the Moon Lake Equine Center in Texas.
***
Besides War Pass and Pyro has any horse on the Derby Trail hit a 100 BSF? It's beginning to look like a lot of horses have a lot of catching up to do.
cayman01
Here are the three-year-olds with 100 or greater Beyer Speed Figures in 2008:
Bob Black Jack (109)
Gayego (102)
Georgie Boy (102)
Jockey Ridge (101)
Eight Belles (filly, 100)
Winsome Charm (100)
Two-year-olds of 2007 with Beyer Speed Figures of 100 and greater:
War Pass (113, 103)
Sok Sok (109)
Pyro (105, 100)
Ready's Image (105)
Rated Fiesty (filly, 102)
Gold Coyote (102)
Lieutenant Ron (102)
Wise Answer (100)
***
Dan,
I know everyone and their momma is critical of the pedigree of War Pass, I personally think this is a very special horse. I really haven't seen him ask yet nor have I seen anything on the track who has a chance to beat him 10 furlongs or not. Can you please explain to a novice why he can't get the derby distance according to most experts. Thanks
Most folks are going to see that War Pass is by Cherokee Run, and draw a line through him. While Cherokee Run did finish second in the 1993 Preakness, and did win the Dwyer at nine furlongs, he was better around one turn (champion sprinter of 1994), and his best progeny are sprinter/miler types. Oath, a half-sister of War Pass, won the Grade 1 Spinaway at seven furlongs, but bombed in two route races. Also, Vue, the dam of War Pass, earned all of her victories in sprint races.
I think we've all learned in the past few years not to take pedigree too, too seriously as it pertains to the Derby. A lot of people questioned Funny Cide (by Distorted Humor), and Smarty Jones (by Elusive Quality out of a Smile mare). In this day and age of speed breeding, it's hard to gauge just who can, and can't get the distance. I say we let them prove to us that they can't go the Derby distance before we throw them out.
***
My question has to do with track biases vs. track profiles. The profiles that I compile give me the win percentages of horses on and off the pace, for sprints and routes, for a given season at a racetrack. While a track may change from day to day, which could alter the trend in some way, statistically, I have a hard time believing that a true bias can be garnered from 9-10 races. However, I do see shortcomings in evaluating the trends of a surface over an entire season, when that surface may not be constant. Maybe there is a balance somewhere in between. Thoughts, anyone??
Steve in Philly
There probably is a balance in between, but I'm not sure it can be quantified. Perhaps you should try your profiles on a week-to-week basis. That way, you'd get a bigger sample than a daily bias, and you would be able to track any weird shifts that occur due to weather, track maintainance, or a simple bias.
I've always felt that one could certainly discern a bias from a small sample set. In the past, we've seen tracks pounded into pavement-like surfaces for big stakes days, and those courses seemed to favor speed and inside posts. I would call those tracks biased.
I think this is an interesting topic. Any thoughts for Steve in Philly?
***
Dan, Can you offer any insight on the two Darley horses making there debut at Tampa Bay on Tuesday in the 8th race? You are always right on the mark with your thoughts on young horses.
Sam
Ruly scored first out at Tampa Bay on Tuesday at $5.20. She's by A.P. Indy, and is the first foal out of Chercheuse, a Seeking the Gold mare that was a multiple stakes-winner on grass in France. The second dam (by Storm Bird) is a half-sister to stakes-winner Mariuka, British Group 3 turf winner Tatami, and Irish Group 2 turf winner Mukaddamah. Ruly descends from Vagrancy, and I'm interested to see how she performs on grass down the road. She faced an awful bunch on Tuesday so her debut win wasn't a surprise.
It looks like Ruly was working in company with Jasmine Gardens, an unraced daughter of Minefield. If the Ruly race comes back fast, and Jasmine Gardens shows up in a maiden race for Albertrani, you may want to keep an eye on that one.
Game Show (Deputy Minister - Vana Turns, by Wavering Monarch), a half-sister to Ohio Derby winner Petionville, and Kentucky Oaks winner Pike Place Dancer, scratched out of the heat. She descends directly from the great La Troienne, and should do well at route distances. She looks like the kind of filly that may need a race to work out the kinks although if she catches the same sort of group that her mate did this afternoon, she needn't be 100% cranked to win first-out.
***
I'd like to get to Steve T.'s pedigree question tomorrow as well as talk about runups to the timing pole.
Take care,
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on February 26, 2008 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
C,
Everyone seems to have a different view of the gallop out, all the way from it matters not-at-all, to being a primary handicapping tool.
For me I always want to see a strong gallop out, which indicates there is stamina never used in the race. I think Elysium Fields had something left for sure, and showed it on the gallop out. I personally think he was green and kind of taken by surprise by CCM. When he gathered himself and was angled out, I think he finished better than anyone in the race. CCM on the other hand simply stops right after the wire. To me I'd look for EF to run better than CCM next out. But who knows!?
As an indication of what to me is the PERFERCT gallop out, take a trip down memory lane to Sunday Silence in the SA Derby. Watch the whole video and see how he looks at the very end? That's the way I want my Derby horse to look galloping out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdmGGQxoJjo&feature=related
Enjoy!
Posted by: CaliBob on February 26, 2008 at 05:17 PM
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Dan a couple questions if you have time.
One is related to the fountain of youth, is it me, or is 98 beyer for that race seem like a low number historically? Any idea what the last few FOY winners earned and any thoughts on this crop so far, I might be crazy but it seems like they are running a lot slower in these prep races than years back.
Second question is a breeding question. You have any thoughts on sires in the 5,000 to 7,500 range? Particularly any of the new sires in that range. We have a mare that dropped a foal here in MN a few weeks ago(a Victory Gallop filly that will be the next MN bred champion!!!) and we are trying to figure out whether we are going to breed her back this year or just wait.
She's not a high class mare, just solid producer of winners, so we don't want to invest a ton in a stud fee.
Any thoughts on some good bargains at that price range?
Thanks a bunch
Posted by: Jason G on February 26, 2008 at 05:28 PM
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Regarding run-ups...
Racing has many problems in how the game is managed. Besides the tax laws, BY FAR the part that is the most annoying and ridiculous to me is run-ups.
Millions and millions of dollars are bet each day based on speed figures, which are based on final times, which are in-part altered by run-ups.
One of the biggest reasons why final times are not comparable from track to track is the run-ups. Look at the quarter times in 6f races at Monmouth. Are those horses 7 lengths faster to the qtr than those at Belmont just because the track is harder and faster? Of course not. It's the run-ups. So you have to take those into consideration when making the figures, which is a simple calculation, provided they are the same run-up distance.
And of course they are not always the same distance. They said on one of the Expo DVDs that the actual placement of the gate varies as much as 60 feet at one track (Aqu?). Watch a football game. 20 yards is a huge amount.
The reason given? According to Steve Crist it was something like "the track superintendents didn't like the gate constantly in the same spot. It wears down the track."
Here's my solution. Put the gate on the side until 5 minutes to post. Then move it to the correct spot. Load the horses. Move the gate. It's not brain surgery.
What is the correct spot? It doesn't matter as long as its the same. Can't someone (DRF, Equibase, NTRA) just tell the tracks to put the gate at some uniform distance behind the teletimer (10 feet, 20 feet, the amount is laregly irrelevant)? Even if the distance is different at each track (ie 50 feet at Monmouth and 15 feet at Belmont), which makes zero sense by the way, the tracks themselves should not be able to run some races at the same distance with 10 foot run-ups and others with 70.
Is there a sport that is better at complicating the easiest things for no reason than our favorite pasttime?
Rant over...Thoughts?
Posted by: Greg on February 26, 2008 at 06:03 PM
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Love everything about Elysium Fields race in the FOY. He overcame a bad post, went 5 wide, pressed the pace, took a brief lead, came back hard at the winner, was 5 lengths clear of the rest of the field, and looked good on the gallop out after the race. All this in his 1st start against winners! He was my pick about 3 weeks ago to win the FOY, but after the draw and the depth of the field, I decided to only put a large show wager on him and key him on the bottom part of my superfecta tickets. While the superfecta was profitable, the show bet wasn't what I would of liked. (ruined by Court Vision getting 3rd) The problem is since he had no graded earings prior to the race, if he does make the Derby,will he be a tired animal because of the path he had to take to get there? Since I don't follow breeding much, can someone inform me on the blood lines and also what is the chance that he will run on turf someday?
Posted by: Big Joe on February 26, 2008 at 08:14 PM
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Jason G,
The Beyer Par for the Fountain of Youth is 101, so yeah this years was slightly below par, but not by much.
Dan,
When do you use pars? Personally I find them most helpful in maiden races. If no first time starters have run close to par (within 5 points) then the first time starters have a pretty good chance. Also any updates regarding why the Beyer pars on Simulcast Daily are incomplete?
I'm hoping to finish updating the tournament spreadsheets tonight, I will post them when they are complete.
Lenny
Posted by: aparagon4u on February 26, 2008 at 08:28 PM
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Dan,
Your blog is great. I read it every time it comes out. Your video analysis of the Breeder's Cup also helped me uncover a couple of bombers last year.
Kudos,
Greg
Posted by: Greg O on February 26, 2008 at 08:32 PM
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Big Joe,
EF is bred for the turf,
hopefully one day he might get a chance. Being out of El Prado which is a huge turf influence however, the ElPrado can certainly run on the dirt and EF is not the first, there are many. Maybe, after the triple crown chase is done he will get the chance, however there is more money in graded stakes on the dirt.Hope that helps.
Posted by: larryk on February 26, 2008 at 08:49 PM
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Greg- in some cases the gate positioning is due to track configs. Churchill's 6f (I believe) races and Pimlico's 6f races immediately come to mind. Churchill's run up is really long, and that produces very fast first quarters. Pimlico on the other hand has no room, and the gate is right on top of the 3/4 pole. Any quarter less than :23 is fast there in my view. So my point is that it isn't as easy as it may seem in all cases. One would think that the pars implicitly take the run-up into consideration, and the varied distance of run ups is just another reason to use good speed figs.
Steve T- I think you absolutely can detect a bias in one day, and those days provide the most lucrative opportunities. I agree with many views that people jump to conclusions and proclaim BIAS! after seeing two or three logical winners run with a common style. However, some days, and they are few and far between, there is a real bias that you can use to your advantage. Sometimes that bias lasts for awhile, sometimes not.
One thing I've always wondered, often while at Saratoga for some reason, is if there is a "day of week" bias on the assumption that there is a track maintenance schedule that would logically follow the course of the week or dark days. A conclusion you might reach is that "Monmouth is always more forgiving to closers on Wednesdays" because Monday and Tues are dark and maintenance has more time to work on the track. I've been too lazy to study this. Any of you retired types want to take a shot at it? As long as you pay me 25% of any profits for the idea, it's yours.
Posted by: AlHattab on February 26, 2008 at 08:51 PM
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Dan,
What's your thoughts on Eight Belles? She's blown away fillies in her last two and picks up Ramon. Could she be like Rags to Riches and wip the boys in a big race like the Derby?
Posted by: tony on February 26, 2008 at 09:25 PM
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CaliBob,
I agree with your gallop out comments and try to use it when handicapping my derby horses. Speaking of Santa Anita Derby and I have not watched this particular replay in over a year but think I remember Giacomo's gallop out as fairly decent as well.
BigEasyBigChok
Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on February 26, 2008 at 09:37 PM
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Big Joe -- Elysium Fields will probably be a turf horse after the Triple Crown ends if he makes it -- he is by El Prado by a Silver Hawk mare. That pedigree screams turf but has a good deal of stamina as well. The second dam has a number of runners that have placed in turf events.
Posted by: Tyler on February 26, 2008 at 09:37 PM
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Al Hattab, that's fine, and any par time should and certainly does take that into consideration.
What I didn't emphasize in my first post is that there were comments that the runups vary at the same distance at different tracks (ie 1-70 at Aqu sometimes has 20 feet and others 50 feet). That is unacceptable.
The runups are fine and any track quirks have to be dealt with, but each distance at each track needs to have the exact same runup.
You could of course just stick the gate on the pole and time from there. It doesn't matter as long as its the same (of course doing that means track records aren't getting broken).
Posted by: Greg on February 26, 2008 at 10:05 PM
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Did anyone else notice the discrepancies on the splits and final time for the Fountain of Youth Stakes?
Replay splits on Kentucky Derby.com:
:25.78 :49.27 1:13.19 1:38.31 1:51.85
DRF Results (Text):
:24.03 :47.62 1:11.52 1:36.32 1:50.07
DRF Results Chart (PDF):
:24.03 :47.62 1:11.52 1:36.32 1:50.07
"Official" Chart on DRF Races of the Week (PDF):
:23.56 :46.93 1:10.80 1:37.00 1:49.53
How can there be 3 different sets of these critical measurements? Which represents what really happened? Any ideas?
Posted by: TJ Darby on February 26, 2008 at 10:20 PM
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On track tournaments:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pPXNUUZK9W8Xk1MYzvEoZXA
Online tournaments:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pPXNUUZK9W8UjzLuDrPjEEw
Any cells with ? have information that is not yet available.
Lenny
Posted by: aparagon4u on February 26, 2008 at 10:28 PM
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Greg- Track configuration has a part to do with it. I being from northern california know that GG fields has hardly no run up, they would have to start on I 80 to get a really fast time. Where as Bay Meadows on the other side of the bay has a longer run up. I saw Lost In The Fog break like a bullet when setting the track record before the breeders cup at BM. If the tides out at GGF 22 flat equals 21:3 at BM. If the tides in at GG you will not see a track record.
Posted by: crazy rob on February 26, 2008 at 10:35 PM
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On the timing and run-up issues - there is an easy answer, an RFID chip in the saddle cloth will identify the runner and can be activated the second the starter opens the gate and deactivated by the finish line. you will get absolutely accurate times. Would also give you a plethora of data including total distance run, acceleration, split times at any distance. It is like Trackus on steroids.
Wait a minute, that makes sense. Never mind.
Posted by: Steve T on February 26, 2008 at 10:39 PM
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Steve in Philly;
I have an interesting story for you regarding "track bias". It was probably about 10 years ago, and I was in a Vegas race book with my brother, Baggs. It was an early start to the day, and as I mulled my DRF over a red beer preparing for Gulfstream Park, a couple of gentlemen seated next me were looking up at the old-school, hand-written results wipe-board, and one of them says to the other "look at Aqueduct... through the first two races, they are running 1, 2, 3. Sure enough. A quick study of the board revealed that horses breaking from the inside posts were finishing in the top three for the two opening races.
We were not playing Aqueduct, but I looked at Baggs, and said "let's clown-it-up" (clown-betting...betting horses for no other reason that colors, numbers, names, etc.) We made a $2 trifecta box, 1,2,3. They finshed 2,3,1. Payout was around $250.
I don't know if this was necessarily track bias, but to this day, we talk about it.
Van Savant
Posted by: Van Savant on February 26, 2008 at 10:39 PM
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Jason,
I think Decarchy is a major bargain at $5K (CA). I am pretty sure his fee will go up in 2009. Has a solid record among his first crop. His brother Civilisation is another option - I think he is even less than Decarchy (WV). Both are sons of the super mare Toussaud (Empire Maker, Chester House, Decarchy, Civilisation and Chiselling).
Posted by: Steve T on February 26, 2008 at 10:43 PM
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Greg I understand better now. Alan's point in the last thread was right on. With exception of where needed due to start proximity to the turn (say 2-turn 1 mile races over 1 mile tracks like Aqu inner and Mth), why any run up at all? Actually if there is a place they need a long run up it's at GP. Either that or use an alternate finish. The post position bias is a fiasco. But I digress...
Posted by: Al Hattab on February 26, 2008 at 11:11 PM
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On War Pass and the KY Derby:
Why take a VERY short price in the Ky Derby on a horse that has never passed another horse?
Seems kind of silly.
Posted by: Tony Kelso on February 26, 2008 at 11:21 PM
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Calvin,
Great post. Have notes that mirrows several of your thoughts. I very rarely get to experience those WOW moments as by the time I figure them out some other expert such as yourself has beat me to the punch!
Anyway, reading your post I was thinkning of Steve T.'s very good question of horses exceding their pedigree. That is a subject I have juggled in my shallow mind many times. You touched on Bold Ruler in WP's pedigree.
I was trying my best to come up with a horse that might parallel War Pass. I know you and, probably all else reading will think I'm on drugs but, lets take a look at Spectacular Bid.
Spectacular Bid's Sire (Bold Bidder) won nothing, his dam Spectacular had 1 place in her career and has foaled no S. winners. S. Bids 2nd dam (Stop on Red) won 7/32, no stakes wins, but was the dam of Space Odyssey & Sweet As Wine. Decent genes but, nothing to write home about.
With my next comment, I want you to put it into todays perspective media wise.
Spectacular Bid's Grand Sire was Bold Ruler. While Bold Ruler was champion horse of the year in 1957, Bold Ruler was Champion SPRINTER in the US in 1958! At that point and time no one knew he would go on to sire Secretariat, be the great sire of Ruffian, or be the great grand sire of Seattle Slew.
Point being, while Cherokee Run has thrown a few crops out there, greatness could strike at anytime and, War Pass could be the One!
My main contention with this line of thought is SB, would have beeen looked at in similar fashion as War Pass
is being viewed at in todays world.
Anyway, I am cutting this thought way short. I have ben going for 20 hrs., and have a mandatory meeting in less than 5 hours from now.
So if this seems brief or confusing please post and, I will respond as time warrants.
BTW, for you youngster's Spectacular Bid was US Champion Horse @ 2&3. Won 9/9 in 1980 and set the 10F world record in 1:57 4/5.
Posted by: johnnyz on February 27, 2008 at 02:19 AM
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John R,
Your point is well taken concerning the possibility of an outrider horse triggering the timer prematurely in the FOY. Anything is possible. I make a distinction beteen the running surface and running paths and the shoulder. They are all part of the track surface, but the running surface and lanes must be completely clear before the gates open. Outrider horses have no business being on any part of the running surface after the horses have been loaded.
Which brings me to my point. The only way that anything could have prematurely "triggered" the timing mechanism on a FAT system is for the starter himself (or herself) to override the automated starter and "break the beam" himself. Once the system is overriden, the beam is tripped on manually and there could be a delay in the time between the gate is manually open and clear and the first horse clears the video beam on the timing pole (which starts the timing). The run-up to this varies from track to track and distance to distance (and it varies in greyhound racing as well). An outrider or ambulance could have triggered the video timer before the first horse cleared the beam, but the difference would be a fraction of a second typically. If the starter is manually overriding the automated timing devise, it could happen of he is slow with the break or premature with turning the video timing switch. However, this is why regulations forbid the track from doing this unless the starter determines that extingent circumstances exist that mandate manually overriding the system.
And, BTW, I too find it frustrating that the runup to the timing pole varies wildly between tracks and distances.
Sun G posted an article that I enjoyed on the furor that erupted over crazy time problems at GP in 1999. Then, as now, the obvious source of this problem was the starter himself overriding the FAT and video timing device and breaking the beam himself. Understand that if the FAT is left to its own automated devices, the video beam is not tripped "on" at the timing pole until the gate has been opened and the horses have broke. That is the only thing that trips the beam on if the FAT system is used. GP's starter obviously felt the need to manually override this process during the FOY, and in the process exposed the video timing device to an erroneous start. The obvious question is "why is the being done....again? Why was this problem not addressed and solved in 1999?"
Of course, if the FAT is left alone and not overriden, or, if the timing pole and the video beam which triggers the timing device were placed directly in front (to the side) of the gate, this would not happen. I will leave the logistical and practical implications of doing this to others more enamored with this subject. I truly wish to return to discussing horses and the Derby prep races.
Posted by: vicstu on February 27, 2008 at 03:34 AM
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Back to horses. Different subject, seperate post. Calvin mentioned in his last post (where he very astutely broke down several generations of sources of stamina in War Pass's bottom line), that WP also had stamina in the top of his pedigree. I wanted to elaborate and that and kudos to Calvin for bringing this up. Let me preface by saying that WP is probably not my favorite contender for the roses this year (that may be El Gato Malo-who is another post). However, I feel he is given a bad rap for his pedigree, especially as a son of Cherokee Run.
Its easy for a novice to simply look at Cherokee Run, who was a champion sprinter and miler, and finished 2nd in the Preakness, and conclude that he is a source of speed only and move on. That would be extremely specious and short-sighted. Runaway Groom is from the Blushing Groom-Nasrullah line, and historically this line has been a source of tremendous (I repeat, tremendous) stamina.
We know WP has class directly from his sire-line. If WP has stamina, he will have gotten some from his bottom side, and also a good dose of it from the top of his pedigree as well. The Euros have thought for years now that stamina is imparted on top and bottom, but genetics teach us that many recessive traits come through the male line. This means it can sometimes skip a generation.
Could this be a major source of War Pass's stamina (if it is there at all?):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEKUkIacsAE
When WP won the Champagne, Zito smiled and said, "I am not worried about WP getting a mile and a quarter, his sire is by Runaway Groom."
Does Zito know something that many on this site do not? Perhaps. Maybe stamina for WP is right under our noses. Runaway Groom is one of the most overlooked race horses AND sires in horseracing history. Runaway Groom was out of Blushing Groom (FR), son of Red God, out of Nasrullah by Nearco, who came from the great Pharos line of GB. As a racehorse, Runaway Groom didn't even make his move until after 9 furlongs. RG was unraced as a 2 year old, but as a untested 3 year old finished a surprising 2nd in the Queen's Plate (Canada's Derby), and then went on to win the Prince of Whales Stakes and the Breeder's Stakes (the other 2 legs of the Canadian Triple Crown). Not only are these races at classic distances, the Breeder's Stakes is 1-1/2 miles, and on turf. Runaway Groom ran all these races from well off the pace.
RG then came to the US, won a 9 furlong allowance at Belmont before entering the Travers Stakes, at 1-1/4 miles, where he became the only horse in US racing history to beat the Kentucky Derby, The Preakness and The Belmont Stakes champions in the same race. Again, RG was an afterthought and he came from well off the pace to run down Conquistador Cielo and Aloma's Ruler before a shocked crowd at The Spa.
Here is a link to the 1982 Travers Stakes via Youtube. I posted this once before. I should post it every time someone concludes that there is only speed in WP's pedigree. In fact, someone should tie Jill Byrne up for several hours and force her to watch this video via loop feed:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdBzg-B_1Ms
According to the pedigree site reines-de-course, Runaway Groom was a very underrated stallion who was capable of imparting both class and stamina to his offspring. It also states:
"Runaway Groom has a fascinating pedigree...it imparts stamina, class, as well as speed to his progeny."
http://www.reines-de-course.com/runaway_groom.htm
Runaway Groom's sire, Blushing Groom, is not talked about much in the US. Yet, in Europe and Canada, he was a tremendous source of class and stamina. A miler with stamina himself, the AWD of a Blushing Groom progeny is in excess of 9 furlongs. Blushing Groom was from France, and came from Red God who was from the Nasrullah-Nearco line of GB. Nasrullah has long been a progenator of stamina. Here is a link to the Wikipedia page on Blushing Groom. Pay particular attention to BG's better known progeny, including Runaway Groom, at the bottom of the page. It is a who's who in stamina.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blushing_Groom
According to thorobredinternet.com, Blushing Groom presents "the ultimate stamina conundrum: as a son of Red God who had shown true brilliance up to a mile...and yet, via his sons Rainbow Quest and Nashwan (and to a lesser extent Runaway Groom), he (BG) has become synonymous with pedigree experts with Classic stamina."
And if you think that Runaway Groom could only impart speed, he has other progeny besides Cherokee Run and Weekiva Springs. Here is a video of a son of Runaway Groom winning in a stakes race on turf at 1-1/2 miles, coming from over 20 lengths back to win going away at 8 years old! Watch the turn of foot this horse displays after the mile and a quarter pole. This is a wonderful display of stamina and fitness:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cM_SufO3XE
Now, if you took the time to watch the video links I gave, the next time anyone tells you that there is only speed (and not stamina) in WP's sire line, you can laugh directly in their face. Now, I am not saying that WP will get 10 furlongs. But, if he does, I think he will have Runaway Groom-Blushing Groom to thank, along with his bottom side. The horse already has a ton of class.
The distance issue is still out there. But now, perhaps it is obvious that there is stamina in War Pass's pedigree as well.
Posted by: vicstu on February 27, 2008 at 04:39 AM
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Hey Dan, think your spam filter is on the blink again.
It flagged a pedigree post I did on War Pass, hardly the type of thing to contain spam. However, there was my tongue and cheek comment about someone forcing Jill Byrne to watch the 1982 Travers via a loop feed for 24 hours. To all of you sensitive types, it was a joke and not meant literally!
Wanted you to be on the lookout so you could flag and post it. I put some time into it...
Posted by: vicstu on February 27, 2008 at 04:47 AM
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Ill chime in on track bias since it is 1 of my most important tools. Many players dont believe in track bias but there are a lot of players that do. I for one believe in it to an extent. I try to only play tracks that have bias days. For Example Gulfstream. Before they tore up the old track (for shame) outside horses did very well in route races and the 1 hole was not a good post then. Now it has completely reversed. You cant touch anything outside the 8 post in routes there. Keeneland had a huge speed bias before it went to polytrack. Belmont on some days has a golden rail where every horse that runs along the inside do well. Also the inner turf at Saratoga was horrible for outside posts until the last couple of years. And we all know the speed bias at Monmouth and the Aqueduct inner track. I wholeheartedly believe that if you can find the bias at certain tracks on certain days you can gain a huge advantage over the non bias players. Just my opinion though.
Posted by: scianc22 on February 27, 2008 at 05:00 AM
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Jason G - What about Exclusive Quality? This is his first breeding season, and he's standing for $4K. He won 3 out of 4 races, but managed to beat the following horses in those 3 wins: Bernardini, Songster, In Summation, and Diabolical!!!
Posted by: Zoobird on February 27, 2008 at 06:07 AM
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I've noticed there has been no mention in DRF of the Congressional hearing on performance enhancing drugs in sports -- unlike other hearings, this one will include horse racing and is meant to produce legislation. Is the lack of coverage due to indifference?
Posted by: DC Horseplayer on February 27, 2008 at 07:16 AM
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All/Dan,
The most impressive move, I've seen so far from a Derby contender is Denis of Cork. The move he made on the turn,was subtle passing horses and was very athletic and maybe the kind of move that would put in position to win the Derby. It was a very kinda Street Sense move.
Posted by: larryk on February 27, 2008 at 08:02 AM
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SteveT,
Another CA., sire I've been impressed with is LitDeJustice. He has been getting some runners.
Posted by: larryk on February 27, 2008 at 08:06 AM
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JasonG,
Seattle Fitz, has been getting some nice foals and he's at 8,500 a nice value and some buzz about his foals. If I had a mare, that's who I would go too.
Posted by: larryk on February 27, 2008 at 08:10 AM
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Elysium Fields is a beautifully bred horse with chefs de race Tom Fool and Hail to reason represented on both sides of his pedigree. His sire, El Prado, was a middle distance runner and has sired primarily milers. As a result of his dam side, though, he is bred to run all day.
It would be thrilling to have a classic winner from the US time his form cycle to also run in the Arc de Triomphe, a race ideally suited to EF's breeding. Alas, it will be a most unlikely scenario.
e_s
Posted by: e_s on February 27, 2008 at 08:55 AM
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Hey Dan/ All,
Any word on Talent Search (2nd in BC spr. last yr. to Midnite Lute and 2nd to Benny the Bull in the DeFrancis),he hasn't shown any workouts in over 3 months or so and is not on the DL list on the side. We own Bustin Stones and we would like to see as little speed as possible in the Carter(Apr 5 Aqu-"Wood" day. Ah Day is most likely out,Benny the Bull-pointing toward the Dubai Spr.-out??-
Others: Midnite Lute-options open, Chatain-running in the Richter Scale(GP) this weekend-a possibility, Commentator- options open, Then I'm sure there is Midwest/West sprinters possible, as well as those who competed against us in the General George. Any insight let me know-
I know we're kinda jonesing w/ him, but its exciting having an undefeated horse.
Posted by: Steve V on February 27, 2008 at 08:59 AM
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Dan Do you know when Yankee Bravo next race is? John
Posted by: John on February 27, 2008 at 09:49 AM
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Regarding gallop-outs, can anyone provide one or more specific examples of how this has worked as a handicapping angle, ie. a horse gallops out strongly after not winning the race and then in his next race he wins at a decent price.
I'm a bit skeptical of this angle. I remember a couple years ago Andromeda's Hero used to gallop out like a champ, but then in his next race he'd go back to plodding away.
I think this topic was discussed on here before but I forget the deets.
Posted by: terry flanagan on February 27, 2008 at 11:21 AM
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Al Hattab, Greg,...
I'll be interested to read Dan's take on run-ups. Some run-ups, like CD's 6f, are apparently unavoidable because of the track configuration - they wouldn't be able to run CD 6f races there without a fairly decent run-up. As mentioned, track wear-and-tear from repeated starting gate positioning is another reason (whether 17 GP 9f races over 2 months should wear out a track area is another issue, but repeated 6 and 7f races may cause problems.) If you watch GP4 and GP9 Sunday (the two 9f races), compare the starting gate position to the rail - there is slightly less run-up in GP4 than GP9. Much like turf rail position is reported, should run-up be included as well - and if so, where (PPs, entries, scratches/changes?) As I think I've mentioned before, I use CD longer run-up in my handicapping follow-up races - it artificially "lowers" 1st-call fractions vs. horses coming from other tracks - some horseplayers don't take this into account...
Which reminds me of another question - what information should handicappers (whether at the track or online) have easily accessible that at times is difficult if not impossible to accurately find?? Here are some of mine:
Turf rail position => actually much better recently
Farrier info (bends, mud calks)
1st-time gelding
larryk,
Again thinking too much like me... I always love that acceleration out of the turn move - it moved DoC way up on my Derby contender list - despite his relative inexperience (I keep forgetting it was only his 3rd race!) Although not the huge "WOW" stretch move we all love to see as racing fans (Pyro's Risen Star), it is typically the move that wins races, especially the Derby.
Johnnyz,
Going back further, the horse that had 10f pedigree questions leading up to his Derby win was Secretariat, because of the "Bold Ruler = sprinter" argument - even though by then Bold Ruler had become a champion sire (but not a TC-race winning sire...YET!) You, vicstu and Calvin are right - there is definitely stamina in War Pass's pedigree and loads-and-loads of class. The question for me will ultimately be: What price will I take on War Pass in the Derby? Considering my questions regarding his 10f pedigree (primarily based on Cherokee Run's sire history so far), I'll likely want higher odds to play him than you guys will. Much like Smarty Jones in 2004, I may be wrong in my assessment, but there will be value if somehow I'm right. BTW, I actually hope I'm wrong about War Pass and the Derby/Triple Crown - we need a star is this sport and if he somehow could win it all, that would be wonderful!!
Riley/Justin,
Speaking of a horse without pedigree distance questions, how is my baby Alaazo doing? I see he's had two listed works since his recent win, but have any future plans/targets been finalized?
Posted by: Alan on February 27, 2008 at 11:41 AM
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Some kind of runup distance is necessary, considering how the FAT system is activated, as described by vicstu and svhill. BTW, vicstu, the runup in the FOY was between 2-3 seconds, as Alan and I pointed out yesterday, so the incorrect time could easily be off by more than a fraction of a second.
I don't like the idea of using RFID or Trackus to TIME races. If RFID or Trackus were used to time races, then splits and final times would no longer be triggered by the lead horse's nose crossing the sensor or finish line, an unnecessary departure from the way races have been timed for decades. Also, would each horse's quarter split then be calculated as the true time it takes them to travel a quarter-mile? I think we're going to get into a lot of trouble when the "true" distance covered by each horse is taken into account. Some post positions may be better than others, horses go wide, blow turns, are checked, get stuck in traffic, and others get clear trips, save ground, etc. IT'S PART OF THE GAME and handicappers have to deal with it, as they've done since the Form was first published.
Same thing with runups. I think they should try to be more uniform, but horses can cover 60 feet in 1 second. Typical fractions for each track and distance are going to vary a little bit. It's a quirk of the game and I don't think it's that big of a deal. Were the horses in FULL stride, or 64% of the way there when the timing started? If you pick your head up from the paper and WATCH the race and can evaluate other aspects of the horse's PPs, does it really make a big difference if the opening quarter was :23+2 instead of :22+4?
Maybe I'm more old-school than most, but IMO, the game has already reached an absolutely absurd level of technical precision. Isn't it ridiculous that races are now measured in hundredths of a second? As if fifths weren't precise enough. A bump, a short step, or a rider waiting a split second longer can account for a fifth or two. Yet, horseplayers always want to get it down to that last nanosecond. It's a silly, fruitless exercise. Think about this: A fifth of a second accounts for 1/500th of a typical 1 1/16 race run in 1:40. A hundredth of a second is 1/10,000th of that race. It's nothing to lose sleep over.
Did Secretariat's hand-timed Preakness diminish his legacy? Did anyone question his form in the Belmont 3 weeks later? Of course not. In those days, nobody needed a slide rule to figure him out. The game was less technical then. Today, most of the Beyer-dependent nanosecond-accurate players who forgot how to use their eyes would be up in arms and wouldn't know what to do because they wouldn't have their super-precise numbers and figures.
The FAT system has not always been perfect, but it's been reliable enough. There's no need to replace it IMO.
Posted by: C on February 27, 2008 at 11:45 AM
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I actually considered Lit de Justice and his fee is $5K. A couple of others to mention - Stormy Jack (sire of Bob's Black Jack) is $2.5K, and Cee's Tizzy (sire of Tiznow and a whole bunch more) is $7.5K. Moscow Ballet (sire of Moscow Burning, Soviet Problem, Dancing Edie, Golden Ballet and Dominant Dancer) is $3K.
Posted by: Steve T on February 27, 2008 at 11:48 AM
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Tony Kelso,
I try to avoid short prices whenever possible, especially in the Derby. However, War Pass hasn't HAD to pass another horse because nobody has been able to run with him yet.
e_s,
Don't hold your breath on that one. The BC is scheduled too close to the Arc. No American-based horse is going to France when they could stay here and run in the Cup. I'd love to see it happen, but wouldn't bet on it.
Posted by: C on February 27, 2008 at 11:58 AM
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Dan,
Thanks for using my suggestion in the Disabled List.
Alan,
I commented on the War Pass comparison you posed in a prior entry.
Posted by: PGM on February 27, 2008 at 12:02 PM
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It's official - Casino Drive is being pointed to the Belmont, with the Preakness as a possible 'prep' race.
Posted by: Zoobird on February 27, 2008 at 12:16 PM
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Steve V.
Looks like you have a very good sprinter on your hands with Bustin Stones. He showed alot of heart in the General George with his hard fought win. Your post about there not being any front end winners that day was true and his ability to outrun the early speed and hold off the closer says alot about Mr. Stones.
As for the S.Carter in April haven't heard of any possible starters. Baffert said Lute might enter in the Carter. If Bustin could hold off Lutes stretch run then I'd say he's"Truly the People's Champ"
Posted by: Cadillac Red on February 27, 2008 at 12:47 PM
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Dan/Van Savant,
Thank you for taking the time to reply to my question. You both make excellent points. The use of track biases in my handicapping is always changing, but however I use them, I think it is a very valuable tool.
Posted by: Steve in Philly on February 27, 2008 at 12:49 PM
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Jason G.,
I agree with Steve T. If I had 5k to get the best new young sire I could it would probably be Decarchy. However, one other sire you really ought to look into is Repent. He recently moved to Vinery in Florida. His first crop are 3 yr olds and among them is Crown of Thorns, Atoned, and Check it Twice. His runners have shown great early speed and an ability to go a distance. And one must remember this first crop are from second-tier mares. His sales numbers are off the charts for a new sire.
Riley/Justin,
I'm with Alan... Anything new on Alaazo? I see he is nominated to the SA Derby, and I'd love to see him out here.
Posted by: CaliBob on February 27, 2008 at 12:50 PM
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PGM,
You just wanted to be Comment #200 on the prior entry!!! :-)
I won't know what to do with War Pass if he keeps wiring the Derby prep fields. As C and others have said, maybe just no horse has been able to run with him (he is after all a great young 3yo) - but in the Derby, he'll likely have to face and beat "legit" speed to win the race. Assuming short odds as an undefeated Derby fav, I'll likely play against War Pass (although I'll probably keep him on multi-race "savers".) In some ways if I'm going to bet on War Pass in the Derby, I will need a Secretariat/'73 Wood scenario - War Pass will have to lose a prep/disappoint the masses and therefore go off in the Derby at 8/1 instead of 2/1...
Posted by: Alan on February 27, 2008 at 12:52 PM
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I have GP play today in the last race--#8 Contentious(10-1 ML).She comes back after a sprint race to prep her 2nd off the layoff for a suddenly warm McGaughey barn,Prado sticks, she's extremely well bred as all Phipps horses are, and her foreign form at about this distance is great.
Posted by: Steve V on February 27, 2008 at 12:54 PM
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Alan,
That's a move you can't teach: And your right it's a Derby move. He moved up way up on my list and will add to RTTR:
Vicstu:
Awesome column, enjoyed it Thanks.
All.
My LS for the Big Cap is Medici Code:
Posted by: larryk on February 27, 2008 at 01:02 PM
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The Ladies Classic? What was wrong with "Distaff"? Doesn't "Classic" imply 1 1/4?
Now there's a Female Juvenile Turf too. How big is this division? How good is it? Doesn't the Breeder's Cup realize that the better 2YOs do not typically try turf if they have any kind of speed at all? Dreaming of Anna and Barbaro were the exceptions, not the rule.
At this point, I just want to see the Breeder's Cup go away for good. Heck with it.
Posted by: C on February 27, 2008 at 01:06 PM
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CaliBob,
How quickly can SA change back to dirt?? Although I can't speak for his connections, I doubt Alaazo (or any Zayat Stable horse) will see SoCal synthetics until the Breeders' Cup Classic!! They've been very disappointed first with the DMR and now with the SA synthetic surfaces...
And to all Formbloggers,
Speaking of the Disabled List...we sometimes forget the men/women in our sport who get injured or are otherwise very sick. Please say a special prayer for Randy Romero, who just had a kidney removed apparently because of cancer (he also has been battling chronic Hepatitis C) and Justin Vitek, who is now undergoing treatment for recently diagnosed acute myelogenous leukemia.
Posted by: Alan on February 27, 2008 at 01:14 PM
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larryk,
I agree with you 100% on Medici Code, should get nice odds.
Posted by: Steve T on February 27, 2008 at 01:31 PM
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Dan:
Interested in your opinion regarding a new sire - first crop to run this year - I caution that I am biased because I am a shareholder. The sire's name is Black Mambo standing in Ocala. Also, the information provided by this blog by you and the other well-informed posters is better than any handicapping book I have ever read. Thanks.
Posted by: MJK on February 27, 2008 at 01:59 PM
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C,
Perhaps the BC is trying to lure more Euros with the addition of a grass race for two year old fillies.
I think you are right about the name change regarding the Distaff. Why should they change it?
I can understand your feelings regarding the BC. And it's unfortunate that the BC is beginning to alienate some of the core players. I can roll with the flow and I will enjoy the two days of action. But your point is well taken and should be food for thought for the BC folks.
Anyone with a vote for the Hall of Fame should include Randy Romero on their ballot this year. All three jocks are worthy of induction. But given Randy's latest health issues he deserves to be this years inductee.
Posted by: Ray Manley on February 27, 2008 at 02:20 PM
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Steve T and Larry K,
Thanks for all the suggestions, good ones as usual. I think my father in law is looking specifically for a Kentucky stallion. He is debating whether to race the MN bred or sell it as a yearling at the Mn sale, so I think in his mind a Kentucky stallion would bring more buzz if he were to sell it. No offense fellas, I'm not even sure if he's right about that and all of the sires you listed are great values. I will mention them to him and see what he thinks, Decharchy and Repent in particular seem like incredible values.
Of course all of it has to match up with the breeding of our mare who is out of Coronado's Quest which I should have mentioned as well. My sister in law is the pedigree expert, my area is looking at horses at the sales, I'm learning a ton about the breeding righ now.
I will take a look at Seattle Fitz and Exclusive Quality too, both newcomers worth a look.
Anybody know what happened to Teuflesberg??? I am intrigued by him if they have retired him and he is at stud this year, I have to look into that too.
Keep the suggestions coming, we're a mom and pop shop right now, so we need all the help we can get. Just trying to get this thing off the ground and have some fun and maybe make a go of it for real in a dream life.
Thanks again,
Jason G
Posted by: Jason G on February 27, 2008 at 02:22 PM
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Alan,
I know youre right but a guy can dream right?? I don't know about you but I personally would love to see Zayat & Alaazo roll into town and see them all in the winner's circle, smiling triumphantly. Wouldnt it be a sight? A picture worth a thousand words.
Plus I think the track fits his style perfectly.
Posted by: CaliBob on February 27, 2008 at 03:07 PM
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C
Don't be so dis-heartened about the BC this year, and all the "Girly" stuff going on.
I know you are a purist at heart, and change to what was a great concept is hard to take.
From a marketing point, having an all girls day(ie: a race card of fillys and mares) and changing a race to include "Ladies " in the name clarifies a point for those who are not race track regulars.
It took myself a long time to understand what the "Distaff" was. (so, this makes it simple)
...also, I may be showing my inexperiance, but are all races that are 1 1/4 mile ALL considered Classic?...or as a classic distance?
Or is 'classics' simply a term that can describe all the prestigious races run?
ie...Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Stakes, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, BC 'Classic',
...just fishing for anyone's clarification or opinion.
Back to the Breeders Cup 2008...Girls on Friday, Boys on Saturday...a bit unconventional...but maybe a windfall depending on how they promote those days...ie: "Ladies" free stuff on Friday..could be a bonanza for the card to get the bettors in, and more casual fans.
Works in other areas of entertainment..ie: Ladies in free nights, a free drink for the Ladies, free (very girly gift) to the Ladies with admission...etc.
I mean, if Frank can have his Energy Girls as a hook, why can't the BC shake it up a bit?
(I know C, I can hear you groaning all the way out here)
...and no offense to the Ladies who Blog here so frequently.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on February 27, 2008 at 03:21 PM
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Jason,
If you are looking at a KY sire, here are a couple of suggestions:
Mizzen Mast - $20K
Royal Academy - $15K
Northern Afleet - $10K
Honour and Glory - $7.5K
I think Northern Afleet is the best value. My personal favorite (within a reasonable range of $$) is Yes it's True for $35K. Or just tell them you hooked them up with a date for Smart Strike at only $150K!
Posted by: Steve T on February 27, 2008 at 03:24 PM
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Jason G,
Remember that Teuflesburg broke his sisemoid bone at Keeneland last fall and they took him to to triage and he succesfully came out of surgery later the next week.
His recover was slow, but steady and he gained enough back to be retired to stud not that long ago. I do not remember the name of the farm or breeder he is at, but I am sure Dan or someone here probably knows more than I...
C,
I agree with you 100 percent about the FAT system. Sure its not perfect, but it works fine. And given the distance of the run up, you could be right about how great of a difference the tripping of the timer might have been. I do know that kind of thing is not supposed to happen as long as the FAT system is not overridden by the timer manually. If he does this, all bets are off. Given the history of this at GP, I feel the nexus of this "error" and accidental "tripping" of the timer (or, more properly, "breaking of the beam") lies fully with the starter, regardless of who or what actually triggered the premature running of the viseo clock. I also agree with Steve Crist that there was no need for either Equibase, GP or anyone else to hand time every fraction of the race again. The adjustment M. Welsch of DRF did seemed ok to me. These second and third hand-times simply re-muddy waters that had already been cleared.
Alan (and others),
Regardless of how War Pass does in his preps I bet almost anything that he will not be morning line favorite for the Derby. Even if he does end up there, the public and handicappers will bet him up to second or third choice for sure. Speed runners rarely are the odds on favorite at distances over 9 furlongs. Remember, last year Hard Spun was 10-1, and was 12-1 at the morning line odds.
This was even after his impressive win after rating at 9 furlongs on polytrack. War Pass was 18-1. I am not certain, but Swale may have been the last speed horse favored to win the Derby. Or was that his father (Seattle Slew)? It was not Affirmed, Alydar was the favorite to win the Derby in 1978 (Alydar 2/1, Affirmed 9/5).
My point is that should Pyro and another impressive closer such as El Gato Malo, Colonel John, Denis of Cork, or even Court Vision do well from now until the Derby, they will get much hype and support.
War Pass is getting hype because he just ran. That is our knee jerk turf media. Yet, almost every poll I Have seen outside of "Derby Watch" and Justin Dew at Derby.com have Pyro as the favorite to win the Derby, or Court Vision, or Tale of Ekati (you get the point). Even Majestic Warrior, who has never run one step beyond 7 panels in an actual race, is ahead of WP on many Derby top 10 polls.
I predict that unless these closers all fall on their face between now and the Derby, that at least one, or maybe two or three, will have lower odds to win the Derby.
Thats the way this game is. Why should it change now? Which to me means that WP may be a value if enough money supports the late speed horses. War Pass will not be an underlay. IMHO.
Posted by: vicstu on February 27, 2008 at 03:28 PM
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Jason,
One more for consideration - Lost Soldier (Danzig x Lady Winborne - Secretariat) is only $7.5K. Nice sprinters, routers and turf progeny.
Posted by: Steve T on February 27, 2008 at 03:37 PM
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vicstu,
Nice post earlier about War Pass's sire line (other than the usual Cherokee Run's a sprinter, so...) garbage I keep hearing from many. And War Pass will be one of the few Cherokee Run progeny to even attempt 9 and 10 furlongs. So, it isn't that Cherokee Runs cannot get classic distance, its that no one has tried them at because, well...they are from Cherokee Run (a sprinter). Boy, that is the self-fulfilling prophecy from hell. IMHO.
Runaway Groom, Blushing Groom, there is stamina there...and the video feeds of Runaway Groom in the Travers, and Runaway Dancer in the 1-1/2 turf stakes race, are excellant visual proof that a half brother to Cherokee Run, and a son of Runaway Groom, has a ton of stamina. The stretch runs of Runaway Dancer are simply breathtaking-even at 12 panels on turf at 8 years old. And Runaway Groom in the Travers from last to first is a classic.
Even though War Pass is BC Champ, I agree his form will prevent him from being favorite at the Derby. And Hard Spun actually showed more stamina in his 6 races (of which he won 5, going away) before the Derby. If I had a dollar for everytime someone told me he was going to spit the bit in the Derby, I would be rich...
Posted by: svhill on February 27, 2008 at 04:06 PM
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Vicstu,
Wouldn't you count Smarty Jones as the last speed horse favored in the Derby? He was a solid speed horse who many thought would have been 1-2 with Lion Heart the whole way. The only other pure speed in the field was Quinton's Gold Rush, if I believe.
I'm curious to see what happens with War Pass in the Derby. I think if he goes in undefeated - he will go off the favorite. The fans, the media and the handicappers (they know Zito can win the big one) will all have memories of '07 with Street Sense and his parlay of the BC Juvenile and Champion 2 year old into Derby victory.
They say talk is cheap, but when it comes to the Derby - it's all about the story horse.
Tommy
Posted by: TommyJersey on February 27, 2008 at 04:08 PM
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Dan -
It seems to me that the majority of horses who make the trip to Dubai from the US are never the same once they get back (at least for that year). I know the purse is huge, but if your goal is the BC classic is it worth going to Dubai?
Can you break down some significant US horses that have made the trip and how they have faired when they returned?
Obviously I am worried that the world cup will get in the way of me being able to watch Curlin win the classic at Anita.
Posted by: Supah Blitz on February 27, 2008 at 04:37 PM
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SRVegas and Ray,
I'm all for a special day for the ladies and/or an extra good card of racing and wagering, but I don't think either one of those 2 things have to occur as add-ons to an already over-expanded Breeders Cup.
We can have a special day for distaffers, claimers, CA- and FLA-breds, or horses racing under unusual circumstances. In fact, Calder's Extreme day, Summit of Speed, the Sunshine Millions, and the Claiming Crown already accomplish most of this. Great. But the Breeders Cup should not try to be a combination of Extreme Day and champions day. That is exactly what it has become. I'm sure we'll see the dirt marathon division split up into boys and girls too. I have a hard time listing all the races now... forget about remembering all the winners.
Maybe I'm alone here, but I think they've tinkered this thing into something that is far removed from the original idea: a champion showcase.
SRVegas,
There are a few exceptions but "Classic" usually means 10 furlongs. Not always, but usually. The converse is not true-- not all 1 1/4 races are classics, although some commentators will use the phrase "classic distance".
Ray,
We've been seeing a decline in the number and quality of Euros that come for the Turf, Classic, and other races, so I'm not sure why they would cross the pond for less prestigious races when they already have better ones at their home base.
Posted by: C on February 27, 2008 at 04:38 PM
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Jason,
Another Kentucky bred to consider for your mare. 5k, stands @ Eagle Valley Farm in Carlisle, Kentucky.
Shore Breeze (Danzig), is a bargain. A beautiful well conformed horse that ran 22 times, record of 4/4/2. Mainly a sprinter.
Is some stamina on dams side, 1st dam is Sea Breezer (Gulch), 2nd dam Lakevile Miss was a pretty good runner, was US Champion Filly in 1977.
BTW Shore Breeze's first crop hit the board at a 75% clip. Just a thought.
Posted by: Johnny Z on February 27, 2008 at 04:49 PM
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vicstu and svhill,
Speed runners are rarely the Derby fav - what about #16 from this Derby?:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/pps/05kyderby_pps.pdf
If (and obviously that's a big "if") War Pass wins his next two Derby preps, he will go off even lower than the 5/2 odds seen in 2005. And that's with every "wise guy" in America playing against him - hey, I will likely also! War Pass's "paid workout" this weekend only reinforced most horseplayer's impressions as to his Derby chances (although I have to admit he appears to have gotten even bigger and more effortless racing.)
And you can't really compare pre-2008 Derby War Pass and pre-2007 Derby Hard Spun - and Hard Spun was one of my Derby picks! Here are last year's Derby PPs:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2007/pps/ky_derby_basic.pdf
To summarize:
Hard Spun 2007:
Avg BSF in six races = 90.7 (max=101, LanesEnd)
3/6 races wire-to-wire (remember last year's Southwest "mistake").
Winner of a G3 and G2.
War Pass 2008:
Avg BSF in five races = 98.2 (max 113, BCJuvie)
5/5 races wire-to-wire.
Winner of a G1 and G1.
Hard Spun along with Stormello were felt to be the likely 2008 Derby pacesetters, but that's not why Hard Spun's post-time odds were 10/1 - it was because Hard Spun's resume in no way compared to War Pass's resume so far this year. (Of course, that all changes if War Pass loses next out...)
Posted by: Alan on February 27, 2008 at 05:14 PM
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SteveT,
Jason G,
I guess you and I and Alan think alike 2. I love Lost Soldier too. He gets some runners and not the support he needs. He would be one I breed 2 if I had a mare along with Seattle Fitz and Military(out of Danzig as well, they love the KY grass here). Sometimes getting that foreign influx of blood leads to something of a hybred(something I believe the Claibornes alot)and I believe CQ is out of 49ner?
That would be Mr. P. And if thats the case shouldn't be a problem for his mare.
Like your Dearchy's too.
Posted by: larryk on February 27, 2008 at 05:22 PM
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nice pick Steve V. in GP 9th.!!
Posted by: lelenz on February 27, 2008 at 05:29 PM
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Thanks Lelenz- its just seems that many people saw the same thing I did-- going off 7/2 from a 10-1 ML. But, she did look like a winner every step of the 1 1/16m turf affair to keep the Shug barn riding high.
Posted by: Steve V on February 27, 2008 at 05:52 PM
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Tommy, Alan, etc,
Let me rephrase my statement about speed not being favored in the Derby...speed, but specifically, frontrunner.
Everyone knew Lionheart would have the lead in the Derby. I did, at least. Smarty could rate and he did.
Frontrunner, not just a speed horse, but a frontrunner. Its true Smarty was by nature a go to the front type, he had succesfully rated at least 2-3 times prior to the Derby. By the time Smarty was in the Derby, he had learned to relax more rating off of the lead, than he ever relaxed when he was on the lead. And that is why he rated very nicely in the Derby and the Preakness, and why everyone was up in arms that Smarty was moved onto the lead too early in the Belmont backstretch.
Hard Spun, on the other hand, only could rate off very fast fractions. Otherwise, as in the Preakness, Belmont, Traver, and the Southwest, he became far too rank when held off the lead for too long. Hard Spun was far more relaxed on the lead where he could control the pace. So was Swale, War Emblem and Seattle Slew (and it would seem, War Pass).
Take the Belmont. Everyone agreed that the only shot Hard Spun had was to go to the lead and control the pace and stretch his speed out. But for Smarty, everyone agreed it would be a disaster for Smarty to go to the lead because of his inability to rate when on the lead as effectively as he did rating off of the pace.
Take the Philadelphia Penn Nursery Stakes. Both Smarty and HS wired the field. But HS did so relaxed, and under a hand ride the whole way. Smarty, conversly, tore the track up, was unratable on the lead, and flew off to a 18 length lead that eventually drited down to 14 lengths at the end of 7 panels. So, one speed had a best style that was a frontrunner, like War Pass, the other, Smarty, was tractable speed, like Any Given Saturday.
Hard Spun was a frontrunner with a stamina based pedigree out of a speed sire (Danzig), while Smarty was a speed horse who was most effective rating off of the pace, and which had a questionable pedigree.
Yes, Smarty Jones was a speed horse, tactical speed. By the time Smarty had gotten to the Derby, he did his best running by rating off of the pace, which is how he won the Derby and Preakness.
But SJ's style and form in route races was nothing like War Pass's (to this point). HS, War Emblem, Swale, Slew, they all did their best running on the front end. Servis made it a point to train Smarty to rate during route races and it payed off. SJ would have exhausted himself on the lead for the entire race, as Servis had trouble getting him to relax on the lead.
As for the WP argument, as far as BSFs, Alan has a good point. But every race HS won, regardless of who he faced, he dominated and won going away. The smallest margin of victory for HS at this time last year was 5-1/2 lengths. War Pass has only won 1 race by that much or more, and it was this allowance. But, no doubt WP has won better races, and is BC Champ.
But, again, my point is concerning frontrunners, not simply speed. In 2005, the only need the lead type was Lion Heat.
Posted by: vicstu on February 27, 2008 at 06:31 PM
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C
I appreciate your added comments on the Girls angle for BC day, and the fact that they have added more (races in general) to an original "Champions Day" that did not need to be tinkered with. I whole hearted agree!
...but, unfortunately it has become what it is, so how do we (as racing fans) all make the best of it?
We may hate it,( or take it with a grain of salt) but I will still watch, just for the love of the sport...and hopefully it will generate a new fan base for horse racing.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on February 27, 2008 at 11:29 PM
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C
Thank you for your note regarding the "Classic" question.
It helps explain what I read and hear.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on February 27, 2008 at 11:36 PM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 