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FormBlog | March 07, 2008

Stakes opinions, some listed stakes pars

I've decided to try and beat the chalks in the major stakes races at Fair Grounds on Saturday.  Any fool can pick chalk.  This fool is going another route.  Of course, a fool and his money...

New Orleans (Race 6 - Fair Grounds
Grasshopper left Silver Lord, Magna Graduate, and Encaustic in his wake with a devastating stretch run in the Mineshaft, and last year's Travers runner-up seems primed for a big 4-year-old season in 2008.  He's obviously the one to beat, but I'll give one of the older guards in the division one more chance at redemption.  I'll take Magna Graduate.  The Mineshaft was his first start of the year, and his trip grew progressively wider as the race wore on.  Perhaps the addition of blinkers will give this guy some snap.  Remember that he won the John Battaglia Memorial, the Pegasus, the Discovery, the Clark, and the Queens County all with the aid of the blinkers.  While those races seem like ages ago (and believe me, they weren't yesterday), I firmly believe that Magna Graduate has one or two more nice efforts still in him.  Plus, his price will be decent.  Silver Lord looks like a horse on the improve.  He dominated his opponents in the Louisiana Handicap, then raced wide in the Mineshaft.  He draws a good inside post here, and his fine early speed should have him in the mix from the start.  Grasshopper may be an important horse in the handicap division this year, and he deserves the utmost respect.  He won't offer a lot of win value in this spot, but remember this race kicks off a $200,000 guaranteed All-Stakes Pick Four.
Selection:  Magna Graduate

Mervin Muniz Jr. Memorial (Race 7 - Fair Grounds)
As in the New Orleans, this race features a strong favorite, and one that I'll try to beat.  Daytona has emerged as one of the top middle-distance grass horses in the country with four straight graded stakes wins, and he took to the Fair Grounds course like a duck to water with his facile gate-to-wire score last month.  Daytona has done a lot of traveling in that time, however.  He shipped from Southern California to New Orleans, and back, and now back again.  Yes, he looks like the lone speed, and he is certainly the one to beat, but he won't offer much win value, and maybe, just maybe, those frequent-flier miles have taken their toll. Instead, I'll take Fracas, and Irish-bred making his United States debut for Barclay Tagg.  A Group 2 winner at three, the son of In the Wings finished second behind Dylan Thomas in a listed event last year, and just missed behind subsequent Group 2 Prix du Conseil de Paris runner-up (by a dirty nose) Arch Rebel in his most recent outing.  This owner/trainer combination have had some success with first-time imports, and while I'm usually not a strong believer in "weight off," you'll notice that Fracas is shedding 21 lbs. for this assignment.  Daytona will be my second pick as he should be a handful on the front end.  Brilliant has been an inconsistent performer throughout his career, but when he trips out, he can live up to his name.  Neil Howard regrouped with this guy after a fatigued sixth at Saratoga, and the strong of local workouts should have him on his toes.  Perhaps he's the true value of the race.
Selection:  Fracas

Fair Grounds Oaks (Race 8 - Fair Grounds)
I'll call on Dr. Derango's second cousin, Dr. Dan-Mento for this one.  For a four-horse field featuring an undefeated, lone-speed champion, this race should be a no-brainer, but what happens if Larry Jones decides to "Cowboy Up" with Proud Spell this time.  Perhaps a bit frustrated with chasing Indian Blessing around the track in the last two races, Jones may want his charge a bit closer to the champ going into the first turn.  Could a prolonged speed duel knock them both out down the long Fair Grounds stretch, and set it up for a shocking upset?  Not likely, but a public handicapper is allowed to dream, and I'm hitching my wagon to Wisconsin Lady.  She's 0-3 this meet at the Fair Grounds, but chased some good fillies, and she had to alter course dramatically in the short stretch of the mile run last time out.  She needs to improve her Beyer Speed Figure about a zillion points to win this, but if the pace is super-fast, this nicely bred Howard-trainee should be trying late.  Best of all, she'll offer some semblance of a price.
Selections:  Wisconsin Lady, Indian Blessing, Proud Spell

Louisiana Derby (Race 9 - Fair Grounds)
Anyone that saw the Risen Star knows that Pyro's a good horse with the potential to reach an even greater plateau.  So, to help the Pulpit colt out, I'll pick against him by playing his stablemate,  J Be K.  Quite simply, J Be K has been awesome in both lifetime starts.  He broke the track record at Saratoga in his career debut, and left the solid Fierce Wind far behind that day.  After suffering a temperature that forced him to miss the Champagne, J Be K was sent to California with the rest of Bob Baffert's babies.  The owners didn't seem comfortable prepping their most promising youngsters on synthetic surfaces, however, and J Be K was sent to, you guessed it, Steve Asmussen.  Although he beat weaker competition in his local debut, J Be K did it the right way.  He fended off a pair of pace challengers while down on the rail, and turned it into another gear in midstretch before being geared down under the wire.  There are always going to be distance concerns with lightly-raced speedballs when they stretch out for the first time, and that long stretch will probably look pretty daunting to J Be K when he turns for home.  Still, he may be loose on the lead while Pyro may have to weave his way around horses from the back.  Plus, J Be K will offer more betting value.  Anyone who reads the blog on a regular basis knows I'm a HUGE Tale of Ekati fan, and I think he'll give a good effort on Saturday.  This is his first start since the Breeders' Cup, however, and you couldn't blame him if he needed the race just a bit.
Selection:  J Be K

Toboggan (Race 8 - Aqueduct)
Alright, I'll admit it.  I promised I'd never play Santana Strings again after another one of his almost-there races last year.  I fibbed.  Trained by Steve Asmussen (who else), Santana Strings was aided by a beautiful ride by Shaun Bridgmohan in the Sunshine Millions Sprint.  While he would have had to cut through the infield to beat Benny the Bull that day, Bridgmohan found the rail despite breaking from post 10, and followed the favored winner from the midpoint of the turn.  From the video, Santana Strings seemed to gallop out on even terms with Benny the Bull, and he should receive a good deal of pace help in the Toboggan.  One last chance...I promise.  Man of Danger is pure speed, and trainer Bruce Levine is scorching hot right now.  The gelded son of Tiger Ridge almost took the Paumonok field gate-to-wire last time despite being bumped at the start, and he should be on the choo-choo once more.  The presence of the speedy Ravalo does Man of Danger no favors, however, and if they hook up hard and fast, the closers will be chargin.'  Ravalo has come out of nowhere to take five of his last six races, but he shook loose in the early stages of the Impressive Stakes, and may not find the lead so easily this time around.
Selections:  Santana Strings

Gotham (Race 9 - Aqueduct)
It's appropriate that Giant Moon is a New York-bred.  He's as tenacious as a Manhattan housewife going shopping at Barney's, and it's going to take some effort to break his heart.  This will be the toughest field he's faced to date, however, and he may be forced to rate a bit more than usual.  Instead, I'll go with the J Be K clone in Saratoga Russell.  There is some wet weather forecasted for the Big A on Saturday, and Saratoga Russell is perfect over "off" tracks.  Like J Be K, he speed-popped a weaker bunch in his first start of the year, and like the Asmussen 3-year-old, will be stretching out with distance questions to answer.  Also, he may be the controlling speed over a track that can be notoriously-kind to front-runners.  I'm starting to become a Texas Wildcatter fan, and it's possible that Pletcher has an ace up his sleeve with this gray colt.  He ran a deceptively-good race in the Whirlaway, and now adds blinkers.  I'll go ahead and assume that Texas Wildcatter posted his recent 59.60 bullet workout with the blinks.  He has some potential.  Roman Emperor is bred to run all day, and he has never taken a backward step on the Beyer scale.  He's still a bit green, and needs to improve his lead changes, but has some natural ability.
Selection:  Saratoga Russell

Santa Anita Oaks (Race 9 - Santa Anita)
The goal here is to try and beat Golden Doc A.  She has had some tough battles in recent starts, and I didn't like the fact she was drifting out late two back against Indian Blessing, and I certainly didn't like her inability to switch leads when winning the Las Virgenes.  I also question her at this extra distance.  Now, watch her score by five.  Instead, I'll take a shot with the lightly-raced, virtually untested Briecat.  She's shown some versatility in her short career, and may have probable pacesetter Lovely Isle in her sights down the backstretch.  She handled two turns at Turf Paradise last time out, and should be right there when the real running begins.  Lovely Isle may have been best in the Las Virgenes as she hooked up with another pace opponent from the start, finally shrugged that one off on the turn, and just was run down late.  She'll be setting the fractions, but is another that has to prove herself at this 1 1/16 mile distance.  Ariege may be the sleeper for the always-live IEAH Stables.  She'll make the important third start of the form cycle, is certainly bred to handle this distance, and chased a good Pletcher filly named Passion going down the hill last time out.  She fits nicely with this group.
Selections:  Briecat, Lovely Isle, Ariege

Santa Margarita (Race 9 - Santa Anita - Sunday)
Nashoba's Key vs. Zenyatta.  That should be enough to get any fan's blood pumping, and I'm excited for this matchup of two quality lassies.  I know that I cautioned everyone against taking horses off our Disabled List at short prices, and Zenyatta has had some "minor issues" leading up to the race, but she has been simply tremendous in all of her races thus far.  She beat some good 4-year-old fillies in the El Encino, and looks ready for the older set.  Nashoba's Key has lost two in a row after winning her first seven, and she may have needed the race in the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf.  She draws widest, however, and has yet to try this often-quirky cushion track.  The interesting play may be Double Trouble from the Frankel barn.  She's in very good form, winning the Santa Maria by open lengths last month for her second straight win.  She draws a cozy inside post, and may work out a nice pace-tracking trip just off Sweet Belle and Dawn After Dawn.  The nine furlong distance should hit her right between the eyes.
Selections:  Zenyatta, Nashoba's Key, Double Trouble

Razorback (Race 9 - Oaklawn)
Don't think Jonesboro will let Spotsgone get away with murder on the front as he did in the Essex last month.  If those two go at it hammer and tongs, I'll take the consistent closer Goulding's Green.  The veteran didn't have an ideal trip off the layoff two back as he made a four wide bid entering the turn, and he may have been too patiently-handled while down inside in the Essex.  I think he'll appreciate staying in the clear after breaking from his far outside draw, and can wear these down in the lane.  Spotsgone is in career form, and if they do leave him alone on the front, the Oaklawn-loving bay can take them wire to window again.  Zanjero earned over a million bucks last year with wins in the West Virginia and Indiana Derbies, and close finishes in the Pennsylvania Derby, Northern Dancer, Blue Grass, Louisiana Derby, and Risen Star.  It's Asmussen, of course, but this is the first start off the October layoff, and he'll be coming from way, way back.  I prefer him on the bottom of the exotics.  Jonesboro is an old favorite, but he's stuck between a rock and a hard place chasing Spotsgone early while attempting to stave off the closers.
Selections:  Goulding's Green, Spotsgone, Zanjero, Jonesboro

El Camino Real Derby (Race 8 - Bay Meadows)
He who can handle real dirt and real distance (a novel concept these days, to be sure) will win the El Camino Real.  Nikki'sgoldensteed handled both in the Turf Paradise Derby, and did it in fast time.  He showed a willingness to sit just off the pace that day, and may work out a nice ground-saving, pace-tracking trip under Jon Court.  Master Daniel took the measure of maidens over Golden Gate's Tapeta going six furlongs, now has to try two turns and dirt, and is forced to break from post ten.  He's talented, though, and should be used in the gimmicks.  Bamaha Breeze has good speed, but enjoyed a perfect trip winning his Cal-bred allowance over Santa Anita's cushion track last time out.  The rail opened up like the red sea, and Martin Garcia sent Bamaha Breeze on through to a driving victory.  He's won over this surface in the past, but another with some distance questions to answer.  Coast Guard faced good ones in the Lewis, and should have learned a lot as it was his first start against winners.  He is a cranky sort, however, pulling his way along early, and often is late to change leads.  He's had some foot issues to deal with as well.  Behindatthebar makes the first start since being privately purchased and turned over to Pletcher.  He drifted during the stretch run of his maiden win, and will be trying lots of new things today...all at a perhaps underlaid price.
Selections (Super!):  Nikki'sgoldensteed, Master Daniel, Bamaha Breeze, Coat Guard, Behindatthebar

Richter Scale (Race 8 - Gulfstream)
Commentator is one of the more exciting and frustrating horses in training.  He'll either blow your mind with a monster performance (ala his three Beyer wins of 115 or more), or he'll blow your bankroll with a dud.  While he's going to have to fend off some other speeds in here, he's turning back to one of his favorite distances, and the good Commentator will take some beating.  I think I'll watch from the sidelines instead of participating with my wallet, thank you.  Chatain should get the right setup, and he absolutely adores this main track.  The seven furlongs shouldn't be a problem, and the often-ouchy runner seems to be feeling okay based on his series of quick workouts.  If Commentator stubs his toe...again, Chatain is the one to most likely benefit.  Let's give some props to Nyuk Nyuk Nyuk, a veteran Canadian that has already won twice at this meet.  Sure, his wins came in claiming races, but he put up some big numbers, and may give Commentator a run in the early going.
Selection:  Commentator

The Very One (Race 9 - Gulfstream)
Like Sun King, Cosmonaut, and other favorites of mine that have cost me countless dollars, J'ray is a crush horse that will most likely break my heart once again.  She's trying a marathon distance for the first time in her career, and may be more forwardly-placed under Manoel Cruz.  She just lacks the explosion necessary to be a top, top horse, but as usual, she fits on paper, and I'll give her one more chance.  Hostess gets a nice rider switch to John Velazquez, and she kept very nice company in 2007.  She was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Lahudood in the Flower Bowl, then was outstayed by classy Euro invader Mrs. Lindsay in the E.P. Taylor.  This looks like a nice spot to get her back on the beam.  Herboriste and Cliffrose would be my longshot plays.  The former broke po0rly going shorter last time out, but still made up some ground in the stretch.  That looks like a nice prep race as she stretches back out to a more ideal distance.  Cliffrose didn't have an easy trip against the classy Take the Ribbon in her first start since May, and is another stretching out to a comfortable trip.
Selection:  J'ray

Enough with the losers, already, who do you like this weekend?  I'd like to know.


***

Dan,
Any chance you could provide the Beyer Pars for the following stakes races on Saturday:
Fairgrounds
Race 5 - Duncan F. Kenner
Race 10 - Bienville
Laurel
Race 9 - Wide Country
Santa Anita
Race 7 - Santana Mile Handicap
Thanks,
Lenny

Here are the winners and Beyers for the last few runnings of each race when available:
Duncan F. Kenner (Run as Pelleteri BC pre -2005)
2007:  Saint Anddan (102)
2006:  RUN AT LOUISIANA DOWNS
2005:  Gold Storm (109)
2004:  Cat Genius (106) 
2003:  Beau's Town (112)
2002:  Explicit (102)   
2001:   Bonapaw (106)
2000:  Abajo (113)

Bienville:
2007:  Smitty's Sunshine (98)
Dormant for over a decade

Wide Country
2007:  Bare Dancer (75)
2006:  Celestial Legend (92)
2005:  Amazing Buy (83)
2004:  He Loves Me (74)
2003:  Powers Prospect (79)

Santana Mile:
2007:  Raise the Bluff (102)
2006:  Yes He's a Pistol (106)
2005:  Skipaslew (104)


***

Okay, I'd like to discuss GP 3yo Beyers, European racing information, the return of "Pistol Pete,"  and what wager is good for you.

Thanks for the great stuff this week.

Take care, and best of luck,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman on March 7, 2008 | Permalink

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Comments

Dan;
I agree with you.

The Louisiana Derby, Grade II

To my way of thinking, the obvious selection in this race is J Be K. Simply put, he is the speed. I understand that he is running against some pretty decent colts, with Grade I and Grade II credentials, but I somehow think that this three year-old has them all over a barrel. I believe that Desormeaux will successfully ration his speed into the backstretch, get him to relax, and hold off this field in the stretch.

I will bet him to Win, and box him in an Exacta and $.10 Superfecta with Yankee Bravo, Majestic Warrior, and Pyro

Van Savant

Posted by: Van Savant on March 07, 2008 at 08:33 PM

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Dan,

Euro Racing Info:

When I handicap Euro Races or across the Pond.

I look at who they faced, trainer, the connections,where they ran, pedigree and timeform.

However, in looking at the ChefdeRace net site. You can tell the Euros are more interested in stamina.

Posted by: larryk on March 07, 2008 at 08:45 PM

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CaliBob,
Could you remind me which stakes race Big Booster won?

Posted by: C on March 07, 2008 at 09:05 PM

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I feel like the Gotham begs for an upset, with a middling group of 3yos, many of whom have distance concerns. Southern Terminus is a big play here in his 2nd route attempt. He wouldn't be the first horse to have struggled jumping for 6 to 9 furlongs, and Fierce Wind, who beat him last time, is a serious horse who will be making noise on the triple crown trail. Praying for 12-1.

I'm also on the J Be K bandwagon. Granted Tale of Ekati and Majestic Warrior have potential, and Pyro was visually impressive last out. Still, I feel like these 3 promise more than they can deliver. ToK and MW have to battle big layoffs and don't really need this, while Pyro's 90 beyer gives me serious doubts. J Be K reminds me of Curlin after 2 starts, with the exception that he's got some 2yo foundation.

Good Luck this weekend...

Posted by: Aaron in NY on March 07, 2008 at 09:25 PM

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Dan;

Gulfstream, The Very One Handicap, Grade III:

I have to side with the Irish import, Duchess Royale (Ire). Not only is she well-bred, she has been in-the-money in all six of her starts.

This day, however, she is facing fillies and mares, after dispatching colts last time out under "allowance" conditions. I also love the percentages that Mr. Clement strikes in these type of races.

I will bet Duchess Royal (Ire) to Win, and box her in an exacta and $.10 Superfecta with your J'Ray, Hostess, and Cliffrose (Ger).

Van Savant

Posted by: Van Savant on March 07, 2008 at 10:02 PM

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Unbridled Vicar might be worth a shot at big odds, even if he's established himself as a bit of a sucker. Just one of several closers that could be there in the end. I'm passing on tomorrow to study up for Sunday. Should be fun to watch anyway.

Posted by: C on March 07, 2008 at 10:03 PM

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Dan;

I swear I didn't intend to root-out longshots for Saturday, but based on the morning lines that I just checked...

The Gotham, Grade III:

So much to like about Texas Wildcatter, I don't even know where to begin. Okay, he is working quite well coming into this race. Blinkers on. Actually ran a good, competitive race in the Whirlaway, and finished strongly. 12/1. I will take half that, if necessary.

Texas Wildcatter to Win, and boxed in an Exacta and $.10 Superfecta with Roman Emperor, Southern Terminus, and Saratoga Russell.

Van Savant

Posted by: Van Savant on March 07, 2008 at 10:08 PM

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C,
Big Booster won last year's Gold Cup 10 feet after the finish line...

I handicapped the FG card Monday night and with the exception of adding a few comments, the program numbers and ML, made no changes - a bad sign!! I'll be mostly concentrating on the 50-cent multi-race wagers:
FG1 (msw 8*fT 3yoFil): #10 Dan's Pride (ML:10/1) -> 2ndTS with HT&T pedigree; I liked his 1st-out effort last month and love his dam; nice post-race work; gets Desormeaux. (WP#10)
FG3 (msw 6f 3yo): #11 Bam Bam Mathewson (ML:9/2) -> FTS by Devil His Due for Patrick Mouton (19% FTS WN%); recent 6f bullet work done with Mouton-trained 6yo Venomous - 2nd-place finisher in last year's DFKenner200K. (WP#11)
FG5 DFKenner200K (6f 3+yo): #6 Semaphone Man (ML:7/2) -> will need best effort to beat undefeated #3 Euroears (who will also be on my multi-race wagers); 6yo wants revenge for January's loss (at that time was 1st-off almost 8-month layoff); nice win last out and training beautifully (WP#6; 'A'-#3,6)
FG6 NwOrlnsH-G2 (9f 4+yo): #3 Grasshopper (ML:2/1) -> competition gets harder but no reason to think he can't repeat Mnshath win (WP#3; 'A'-#3)
FG7 MMunzJrH-G2 (9fT 4+yo): #7 Fracas (ML:6/1) -> 1st-US start for Irish turf stakes winner; has faced tougher and competed well across-the-pond; Tagg 1/4 with US-shippers (his workout buddy, Cougar Bay); if he's near his best, he wins. Will include #10 Daytona as an 'A' in multi-race wagers, despite his broken heart: "Why won't Mikey come to ride me? I'm 0/4 with the Alex-guy..." I got too many 'B' picks to mention!! (WP#7; 'A'-#7,10)
FG8 FGOaks-G2 (8.5f 3yoFil): #1 Indian Blessing (ML:3/5) -> lone speed; I'm done playing against her, SO NOW ALL THE REST OF YOU CAN MAKE A "BIG SCORE" IN THE UPSET!! ('A'-#1,'C'-#2)
FG9 LaDerby-G2 (8.5f 3yo): #4 J Be K (ML:12/1) -> as likely lone speed will not be close to the ML by post-time (I'll guess 7/2...) If less than 4/1, I won't play him and just do exotics with my "almost crush horse" #9 Majestic Warrior and "Barbaro Jr" #8 Yankee Bravo. BTW, WHY DON'T THEY RUN THE LADERBY AT 9F? (?WP#4; EXBX #4,8,9; 'A'-#4,8,9,'B'-#3,6)
FG10 Bienville100K (5.5*fT 4+yoF&M): #2 Princess Janie (ML:12/1) -> courtesy of me, johnnyz and Cam Gambolati; 1st-turf but has turf pedigree (Dayjur was quite a turf sprinter and "BC shadow jumping champ"!); if well, she could wire this field - but big if?? Include #7 Jazzy as an 'A' pick. (WP#2; 'A'-#2,7)

Good luck tomorrow!!

Posted by: Alan on March 07, 2008 at 10:18 PM

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Hey Dan,

I see you like Magna Graduate in the NO Handicap. I went really big on him in the Mindshaft and after the race I thought that he may retire. Looking at the workouts that Feb 24th workout looks impressive. Since you like him it's one more time with Grasshopper on bottom. $20 straight Ex.

On the Gothom I have to go with Roman Emperor. Two good works. He's ready to win. Roman Emperor with Texas Wildcatter and Giant Moon to fill out the Tri.

My theory- If Roman Emperor wins here at the Gothom and then goes to the Wood and runs a great race against WP, I think he may have a great shot at the Derby. His daddy is Eimpire Maker??

On the LA Derby- I am on the J Be K band wagon. I saw him win his maiden at Sar and thought it was sensational.

My question is what kind of track will Aqu be tomorrow? Sloppy??

Michael H.

Posted by: Michael H. on March 07, 2008 at 10:31 PM

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Dan, Great stuff on the Two year olds in training. Really unbelievable stats. Money down the drain.

By the way, where is Dr, Demento?? Is he still spinning the LP's??

Michael H.

Posted by: Michael H. on March 07, 2008 at 10:39 PM

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My last foray into the Fair Grounds netted the pick 6 ,5 and 4. That's the good news, the bad is they combined for a whopping $700 and change. Not really proud of that chalk fest. My dogs could have picked them.

Saturday we seek a little better return as not one of my value choices showed up last time.

NEWSFLASH!!!!!

WORD TO THE WISE!!!!!!!!!!
FG was off the turf on friday as a monsoon came thru in the morning. Main track was good, so it should be okay tomorrow.
However, i don't think firm ground will be had on the turf course. Check it before the first race.

Race 1: STREET SIGN liked the off going last time and should be in the garden spot and accelerating as they turn for home.OLEMISS REBEL will take aim from the clouds and GHOUL is the one they'll try to catch. If they go off the truf to save it for the stakes race LE CAIRE stands out.

Race 2:Threow a blanket over CUSH,DOYLINE BUBBA,and K OTEE
as they run down the cheap speed.MUST ACQUIT looks interesting if he can rate, but two duds here leaves him off my ticket.

Race 3:BAM BAM MATHEWSON, live works, live barn, great with FTS. Post makes him a bit iffy. If he stumbles i like LOUISIANA LEE and IDE BALL to pick up the pieces at the end.

Race 4: Another turf race that might go to the dirt.JACARANDA JANE stands out if the going is grass and soft. She's questionable on dirt.LEMONY CRICKET gets the nod on dirt.

Race 5:Wide open affair in my estimate. Unless they let EUROEARS get an easy lead. SEMAPHORE MAN will press the pace but will it crack EE? If it does then things open up for NOONMARK, LE GRAND TROIS and ROI MAUDIT. Go deep here in your P5. I'll go out on a limb here and pick ROI MAUDIT on top hoping he can box in the closers from the outside.

Race 6: Let's just put SILVER LORD on the lead and see if anybody can catch him. NO games please. GRASSHOPPER is the obvious standout but keep your eye on the old man BRASS HAT.

Race 7:If it's soft, it's BRILLIANT. FRACAS will be there too. He always fires.
I'll take a stand against DAYTONA for the most part.Never been on the soft and jockey change.BUFFALO MAN
looks like the longshot at a price.He should get first run if DAYTONA falters on soft going, how he handles it is a mystery also.

Race 8: I just think PROUD SPELL gets INDIAN BLESSING this time. No concrete reason, just a gut feeling.

Race 9: Another deep one for the P5. J BE K has every reason to wire this field. The only thing that holds me back is I don't really care for Kent D. TALE OF EKATI and MAJESTIC WARRIOR might need a race, and then again they might not. Both worked last out bullets. PYRO is proven and can close into a paceless race. Same with YANKEE BRAVO.
So I'll get out the dartboard and hit............. J BE K.
Prove me wrong Kent D.

Race 10:TALETOBETOLD gets a dream trip behing the speed duel of STYLISH WILDCAT and
SMITTY"S SUNSHINE.

Race 11: SONOMA CAT will hold onto a easy lead in wire to wire fashion.Crafty vet KING OF SPEED will try late along with LE DAUPHIN

Race 12: SUARE DEAL and FORT APACHE should be together at the end with PROUD KENTUCKIAN
trying his best in vain.

Good luck all for tomorrow!

Posted by: cayman01 on March 07, 2008 at 10:41 PM

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C,

I was incorrect. He placed 3rd a length behind Lava Man, a few months after being a 40k claimer. But something tells me you aren't challenging my facts alone, but my assumption. Yes?
Well, I would like to know what you think happens when you cut an older horse. One thing it doesn't do is wake them up into being a new horse. I am close friends with the prior owner of On The Acorn. The guy who bought her as a 2 yr. old in Europe, and owned him for four years before Mitchell claimed him. It would be fair to say this man knows this horse as well as a horseman can know his charge.
Two weeks after being claimed Mitchell cut him, which as you probably know is only done for a certain few reasons. The primary one being a temperment problem.

However, that wasn't this horse's problem. He was TOO passive, too intimidated in the stretch. It happened time and time again.

Then within two more starts, this horse had two grade II races under his belt, and an invite to the Melbourne Cup.

But do you know what happened? He couldn't make it. He had to hit the shelf.

This is one example of many over the years of a new Mitchell claim "coming to life" right after. If you believe its because one is gelded here, and one is being better placed there, that's fine.

I don't believe it.

Posted by: CaliBob on March 07, 2008 at 11:08 PM

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Dan,

Thanks for the BSF pars.

I'm playing in the Laurel tournament tomorrow, I've run through the FG and GP races already. Here are some picks, not necessarily contest plays but my top picks in each.

Fairgrounds

R1 - Athena's Gift
R2 - Must Acquit
R3 - Louisiana Dude
R4 - Pectoralis Major
R5 - Euroears
R6 - Silver Lord
R7 - Buffalo Man
R8 - Indian Blessing
R9 - J Be K
R10 - Danceroftherealm

Gulfstream

R4 - Sinners Repent
R5 - Rebounded
R7 - Dix Huit
R8 - Steve's Double, Chatain
R10 - Forster Hall

Looks like J Be K is the wiseguy horse in the La Derby. Everyone and their mother is picking him. I will definitely throw Yankee Bravo in the P4 and trifecta if I play it, along with Pyro and Majestic Warrior.

FG All Stakes P4

R6 - 2,3,5
R7 - 1,4,5,7,10
R8 - 1,2
R9 - 3,4,8,9

That would be $60 for a caveman $0.50 play. Most likely I do a multi-ticket play after I decide A's and B's.

I'll post Aqueduct, Laurel and Santa Anita selections if I have time in the morning.

Good luck to everyone this weekend.

Lenny

Posted by: aparagon4u on March 07, 2008 at 11:30 PM

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Alan,

Thanks for the Alex Waldrop's article, "A New Way Forward".
Was well written and, acurite. Now, if some of the powers to be will take the ball and run with it!

On to this weekend: many of the favorites really look strong but, I with Dan will try and beat some of them.

5th FG, DFKenner S. 6F, My pick is Semaphore Man. He finished 3rd to Euroers M/L fav. 2 back @ FG and, the distance. SM won his next taking the 6F King Cotton S. in 1:09.3 ( excellant time @ OP), with a Bris spd. Figure of 105. This is his 3'rd in a form cycle and comes in with 3 bullet works. #6 W/P

FG 6th NwOrinsH G-2, My feeling is if #3 Grasshopper is in the form as his last everone is running for 2nd. I'm hoping he has a bad day and, will try to beat him with the old man, #5 Brass Hat. BH last in the G-1 Donn wasn't that bad of an effort considering his lay-off. BH has been working as well as he ever has. I normally don't pay much attention to older horses works, but when I see 3 in a row as BH has recently, tells me something is up. #5 W/P.

FG 7th MMunz G-2, Like Steve T. I don't like the jockey change, (Dayonta) and as Dan mentioned he has traveled somewhat in the last month. So I think, while the best in this bunch is very vulnerable. I'm going to go with #8 Proudinsky, do like his jockey change. W/P #8, also will use #5 Elusive Fort in my P-5/-P/4 bets.

FG 8th FGOaks G-2, Am not betting this race. Will use #1 & #2 in the P-5/4. Will add I would love to see Proud Spell win this as Larry Jones has experienced enough 2'nds the last year.

FG 9th, LADerby, Have played this one out in my mind for the last 24 hrs. Will play #6 Tale of Ekati to win. Will go 5 deep in the P-4/5 with Pyro, Majestic Warrior, J Be K, and Yankeee Bravo.

10th FG, Bienville, #2 Princess Janie to Win. This is a fast filly that needs to get a break on the track. The switch to turf is a concern but, she has been setting the grass a blaze in her works.
Will include #4 Stylish Wildcat, & #6 Smitty Sunshine in the late P/4.

9th Aqueduct, Gotham S., My bet is Saratoga Russell to Win, off track or not.

Haven't handicapped the SA Oaks yet, but will tell you that I think Nashoba's Key gets back on track in this one. I think Zenyatta is a trememdous talent but, if NK is right she wins hands down.

Anyway, great week-end for a horse racing fan. At the very least should shine a little light on the 3 yr olds.

Best of Luck to All!

Posted by: johnnyz on March 08, 2008 at 12:10 AM

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Steve T.,

Couldn't to to bed without responding to "wayward petunia takes root". Absolutlely the best play on words or actions on Dan's blog in the last year!
Also we have exchanged many story's the last year, but I think my quote was the "strange, mysterious, and deranaged actions of a teenage male".

Have to sign off, not making this up, an X girl friend just showed up at my front door. May be in for some fire works.

Posted by: johnnyz on March 08, 2008 at 12:38 AM

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SANTA ANITA – Saturday (03-08-2008)

Johnny's in the basement mixing up the medicine, I'm on the pavement thinking about the government. The man in the trench coat - badge out, laid off, says he's got a bad cough, wants to get it paid off. Look out kid It's somethin' you did, God knows when but you're doin' it again

Race 1

Not a lot to work with in this race, no one is even close to par. PHILO BEDDOE stands to improve in his second start, is from a 29% barn and had a decent first run. He is running back on 9 days rest, so there must have been something that the trainer saw. LORD LET IT BE is a firster, but has the works to perform – although the 6F times are slower than average, so he could be a fader. With the low times to par, you really have to leave him in the mix. DER VAN may advance off of his previous, and the change in jock could be a big deal.

Philo Beddoe
Lord Let it Be
Der Van

Dr. Derango: Give me the Lake of Gold, LAGO DE ORO. Coming off an MSW where he wasn’t completely horrible (now that’s a confidence builder) and adding Rosario could give him a runaway win.

Race 2

The big questions in this race are 1) Can someone get the distance, and 2) Will someone wake up and return to form. DAWN’S EARLY SKY has been running against better – Vice Admiral, Palladian General, Monzante, Greg’s Gold, Banner Lodge and Sir Lowry. All of which are much better than these. I am going to take one that has been running on the turf at Turf Paradise (and you think the turf at SA is firm??) SIEMPRE DISTANTE, a half to Asi Siempre. His best race was on yielding turf so I think the relatively softer turf at SA could make him a winner. KRIS SILVER should get a piece from the front end, but is doubtful as a winner.

Dawn’s Early Sky
Siempre Distante
Kris Silver

Dr. Derango: No Habla Englais!

Race 3

Another MCL-32K where the runners are all sub-par in times. But no firsties to play. It smells like a big bomb coming from out of the weeds. TRIPPED THE LIGHT has run against some very good fillies – La Mina, Kazamira, Mystic Geisha, Gorgeous Goose and Startjumpin Marnie. These are no where close. Trainer hits MCL’s at 21%. SHORT LINE made a decent debut at 6F, beaten by 3 lengths. Trainer is at 23%, works are below average. JET SPEED is on the improve, works are best of this lot.

Tripped the Light
Short Line
Jet Speed

Dr. Derango: I still No Habla Englais.

Race 4

SPRIGZEE woke up on his second off of the short rest. Now gets Nakatani back (who is 3-2-1-0 on him). Mullins temp, Ral Ayers, is hitting at 29%. SI CHIMI was caught by Norway House last out and may have righted the ship. THE FIVE J’S has never been down this low, so it is now or never. He is a tidy 6/8 ITM at the distance.

Sprigzee
Si Chimi
The Five J’s

Dr. Derango: JUDGE GALLIVAN seems to throw a good one every other time, and the last time he sucked, so… Also first test of the waters at the 10K level.

Race 6

All of these are pretty erratic, so it’s an Easter egg hunt to try and find the ones who will actually fire. LIKE A TIGER seems to be the least erratic of the bunch, a Royal Academy gelding trained by Hollendorfer and ridden by Bejarano. JAMES THE THIRD seems like he should have more wins than he does. The only time he tanked was on a run at Del Mar in the PolyGoop, although he did take his sweet time breaking his maiden. First run at this level and gets a new jock. ORBIT’S WORLD came back nicely from a long layoff, finishing 2.5 lengths behind at this distance. Trained by “Mr. Unusual Heat”, Barry Abrams and ridden by Chantal Sutherland, he could improve dramatically.

Like a Tiger
James The Third
Orbit’s World

Dr. Derango: If ever there was a race to make a left field selection, this is it. PO’MANHOSS looks absolutely helpless, doesn’t he? In fact he is still a maiden. BUT, he is an Unusual Heat who has never run on grass. This could be a nice one.

Race 7

RISK ADDICTION has run against Zilla, Renegade Ruby and Princess Amelie, and each time faded at the end. The cut back to 5.5F could be what she needs. Handled by Mike Puype and ridden by David Flores with a nice last out work. HEAVENLY N’FREE could break his AND the trainer’s maiden. Five very, very nice works in a row, four of which were in good company. Tyler Baze rides. After getting bonked with Final Fling and Gamblers Justice, BONDI BABE get the perfect stalking trip to take them all. Trained by Gallagher, ridden by Talamo.

Risk Addiction
Heavenly n’free
Bondi Babe

Dr. Derango: It smells like first timer heaven here, I will throw my lot with KULINSKI’S ROSE, a firster with a string of very nice works.

Race 8

MONZANTE should destroy these; he has been running over his head for a while and was entered in the Big Cap. Beat Joy’s Comet and was a closing third to Monterey Jazz. Also has the “live work set”. NEKO BAY holds three straight triple digit BSF’s and is making his Cushion debut. Some very fast works – multiplied by the fact that he is trained by “Slow Works” John Shirrefs. In six races has never finished worse than 2nd. BILLY ALLEN comes to town from TuP with four nice turf races in a row, a positive BSF progression and a nice tan.

Dr. Derango: The remaining horses seem like wannabes and has-beens. I have been on Smooth and Savvy for awhile but can’t make the call.

Race 9

Boy, an awful lot of first timers on the downhill – that makes this a tough race to handicap. OAKHILL GIRL was a victim of Sporties Squeeze playing horse bowling last out and won by DQ. She has also been running with much better – Curiously Sweet, Zenyatta, Black Mamba, Tiz Fiz and Lavender Sky, Yeohh! She was coming like freight train in her last, making up 7 lengths in the blink of an eye. WHIMSICAL MISS has that downhill style of running and may well be able to finally notch win number two. MOUJANE just broke her maiden, but her record is 7-1-2-3. She had one turf run, beaten by stakester Super Freaky at a mile. Any repeat or improvement would win this going away.

Oakhill Girl
Whimsical Miss
Moujane

Dr. Derango: This looks like a sneak attack from Hollendorfer and Bejarano on the first time NA runner RANSOM CAPTIVE. Works are very nice, first time Lasix and the downhill could be right up her alley.

Race 10

I think Santa Ysabel winner FINAL FLING is one that can absolutely get the distance and who is improving. Tough not to go with GOLDEN DOC A, she has been ultra consistent. BRIECAT doesn’t have the experience of others, but those were very nice wins against good competition.

Final Fling
Golden Doc A
Briecat

Dr. Derango: I like the way SEATTLE SMOOTH is progressing, missing by a neck in the Cal Oaks. I really like the add of Joel Rosario to the mix. Works have been very nice.

Race 11

I think this race sets up as a closer’s delight. I am almost positive that Gray Black N White and Exceeding are going to build a barbeque on the front end. If the top two burn themselves out, I think GLIMMERING PETE will be well positioned to take advantage of the meltdown. EXCEEDING has the best chance of holding onto place, and CELTIC SWORD plods on up for show.

Dr. Derango: In the final race I will take the south of the border special, MY FRIEND LUIS. He always seems to be there somewhere, nice progression in his last four. Although a step up, either of his last two would be in here.

Posted by: Steve T on March 08, 2008 at 12:39 AM

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I love Elusive Fort tommorow-

Wolfson doesn't ship for no reason. . .

Posted by: brian on March 08, 2008 at 12:43 AM

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Dan
Dr. Dan-Mento ('gotta be a reference to) Dr.Demento,
AND Steve T. quoting an Emerson, Lake and Palmer song (from my favorite album...Brain Salad Surgery)
WOW...You boys bring back a blast from the past!
HA!

No predictions, I'll just enjoy the races this weekend.
Special watch on the LA derby.

Good Luck to ALL with their picks!

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on March 08, 2008 at 12:53 AM

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Some picks:

Santana Mile: Monzante should appreciate the class drop; Sweet Roberto could get the lead and not stop; Neko Bay could be poised to have a big year.

R8: Stop the Humor, Moujane

Santa Anita Oaks: Golden Doc A, of course, but she might just hit a distance limitation. But it might not be just a match race between her and Final Fling. Ariege is interesting, and I really like Kazamira to regroup. This one was on the lead in her last start and stopped like a bad thing, but she showed the ability to come from off the pace earlier in her short career, she should definitely handle the distance, and she's been in the money all 3 lifetime starts.

R10: Exceeding, Bitter Bill

I am confused to see that Saratoga Russell is the early favorite in the Gotham. Huh? Isn't Giant Moon (speed on the rail at Aqueduct) the obvious favorite? Be that as it may, I think there are five or six legitimate contenders in this race, any of whom could win, but for argument's sake I'll point out Southern Terminus, who was second to Fierce Wind in his last start.

LA Derby:
Pyro has to be used but I'll also jump on the J Be K bandwagon. This may be the outer limit of his distance capability, but he looks like lone speed. The other top contenders are coming off layoffs so it may be the day to beat them.

Posted by: Kyri on March 08, 2008 at 12:58 AM

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Jason G

I saw that Harmony Found was scratched out on Friday.(turf switched to dirt)
We'll keep an eye out for her next start.
Good Luck!

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on March 08, 2008 at 12:58 AM

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Some picks for some 3 yo feature races tommorow:

La. Derby- J Be K will get to the lead and Kent D. will ease him along well on the lead...I see Pyro, Yankee Bravo and Tale of Ekati all making major moves, along with M. Warrior. I also see MW and TOE needing this race.

For my longshot I really kida like My Pal Charlie to hang on ans possibly get 3rd. May throw in to some exotics.

Picks: Yankee Bravo, Pyro, J be K (straight and boxed). Will throw BBR, MPC and TOE under for good measure.

Gotham- Saratoga Russell (See Dan for reasoning), Visionaire, Giant Moon. With Roman Emperor and Texas Wildcatter underneath. May play Laysh, Laysh, Laysh as long shot

Fair Grounds Oaks:
Proud Spell, Indian Blessing,
Wisconsin Lady.

El Camino Real Derby- Nikkisgoldensteed, Coast Guard.

Back later with handicap stakes picks.

Hey Alan,

Looks like Asmussen will not have to pony up money for Big Brown to run in the Florida Derby. Because that is where BB is pointing.

Seems like Dutrow thinks this guy is an absolute freak. And what to make of this? Kent D. has mount on Premium Tap against Curlin in Dubai on same day that Florida Derby is being run. According to Desormeaux's agent, Kent D. is going to pass on Dubai and racing on PT against Curlin for a chance to ride Big Brown again. "Whereever Big Brown goes, Kent D. will go (as well)". says Agent Mike Silletto.

That is giving up alot to ride a horse for his 3rd race. Kent D must think this one is very special. Kind of a cross between Hard Spun and Curlin, on style and stamina.

BB received a 104 BSF.

Posted by: vicstu on March 08, 2008 at 06:57 AM

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Great races at the fairgrounds today, and Arlington is sponsoring a contest for a berth in their April 5th Handicapping contest on the 5 stakes at the Fairgrounds. The twist is that you get 5points for 1st, 3 for 2nd, and 1 for 3rd regardless of odds. I imagine everyone and their brother will have the chalks, so if that's the way I decide to go (Fracas intrigues me in the Muniz) then it goes to the 10th (Bienville) as a tie-breaker. My play here is Tres Dreams-First turf but this is where Asmussen put Bridgemohan and the Prime Power that Gerry had asked about put this one on top. As much as we all like to beat chalks, it just doesn't look all that likely thru the first 5 stakes. So 5 chalks and Tres Dreams are my contest plays. (Gerry-already bought one entry, but will gladly play 2 if one of 'em is a freebie)

Posted by: Stephen Taylor on March 08, 2008 at 07:06 AM

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Anyone got any longshots today? Any where? Louisiana Derby Pyro, Blackberry Rd, Tale of Ekati, I have no love for J BE K. The Gotham Giant Moon, Saratoga Russell, Ling Ling Qi and Visionare Box for tri and super. This could be a box car race, not sure anyone stands out. Anthoney

Posted by: Anthoney on March 08, 2008 at 08:38 AM

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CaliBob- I'm with you on the Mike Mitchell angle. Big Booster did run third, but he was 35-1 or something like that. I was on that grass horse last Saturday solely because Mitchell had recently acquired him. With trainers like him I've found that 1) you essentially handicap as if his only races were after the trainer switch and 2) when he spots them aggressively he is live. Others like this- all anecdotal I recognize (I don't have stats)- that I've been following are Marty Wolfson (see Muniz handicap at FG today) and Hollendorfer (see Heatseeker).

Posted by: AlHattab on March 08, 2008 at 08:45 AM

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Aqueduct

R5 - Borrowing Limit, Run From Hell
R9 - Ling Ling Qi, Giant Moon

Ling Ling Qi and Giant Moon show a positive BSF pattern. In their first start as a 3 year old they topped their previous years highest BSF by 11 and 9 points respectively. I'm leaning towards Ling Ling Qi because of recency and he is drawn outside all of the speed. I would use Roman Emperor, Saratoga Russell and Texas Wildcatter underneath in the exotics.

Santa Anita

R1 - Mr. Excessive
R4 - Sprigzee
R5 - Seeking Answers
R6 - Sam's Queen

On a completely different topic, how about Daaher being retired to stud? I call BS on the whole injury story. I think they realized they got lucky with the G1 win and retired him before he tarnished his record anymore. And yes Commentator is a gelding (someone mentioned this a few days ago). However if he wasn't he would still be promoted as a G1 winner, even though it was a complete fluke. Looking at his record he has never won a graded stakes since the Whitney. His three wins came in two restricted stakes and an allowance race, where he beat fields of 3, 4 and 6. Watch for him to falter today after he faces early pressure.

Lenny

Posted by: aparagon4u on March 08, 2008 at 09:14 AM

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Not gambling much today, but a couple of free contests, so here goes nothing:

With my $23 voucher left from losing Thursday and winning with Fierce Wind)
11th at FG 10w/9p-3 ERDISTON (he's one of the horses in the partnership I'm involved in but when I handicapped the race he legitimately came up 3rd so who knows?)

50cent FG P4-Euroears with GrassHopper with Fracas and Daytona with Indian Blessing with Pyro and Majestic Warrior (Got a hunch on the Warrior today for some reason)

Magna's free Magna5 is up to $60000 so here goes nothing:

lrl10th-9 Lizzalu (needed last race and could improve today)

SA4th-2 Sprigzee-3rd after l/o

GP9th-11-Herbosite-has a 1 1/2 win at Keeneland so distance won't be a problem (12/1 ML)

SA4th-Orbits Wood-off 18 months before last, drops and should improve off that race

GP10th-3 Old 98-400K purchase beaten as 2yo at 3/2 odds-talent must be there.

Went to Hawthorne yesterday (won a little) but gonna take it easy today and see if I can get "something for nothing")

Posted by: Stephen Taylor on March 08, 2008 at 09:23 AM

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And now, picks for this site's free races. You can take these to the bank or to the trash can.

Gotham Stakes (Race 9, Aqueduct) --> 1. Giant Moon 2. Southern Terminus 3. Visionaire 4. Roman Emperor (1-5-10-3)

Louisiana Derby (Race 9, Fair Grounds) --> 1. Pyro 2. Yankee Bravo 3. Tale of Ekati 4. Unbridled Vicar (3-8-5-6)

Posted by: PGM on March 08, 2008 at 09:35 AM

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CaliBob,
Actually, I was only questioning Big Booster's stakes record.
Horses can also be gelded if their testicles cause discomfort while racing. If that was the case, improvement could occur at any age.
As for On the Acorn, Mitchell did not have immediate success. According to Mitchell, he was a handful in the morning and had to be covered up early in his races. On the Acorn might've further appreciated the longer route races. He didn't run the Melbourne Cup because he hadn't had any time off in a year and needed a much-deserved rest, not a trip to Australia. Geez, he's not made of iron and steel.
I've said before and I'll say again, in SoCal, there is less separating the OC62k and G2/G3 levels compared to other circuits. That doesn't necessarily mean the G2-3 levels are inferior... it could just as easily mean the upper claiming/allowance levels are better. In any case, I firmly believe it is easier to "transform" a mid-upper level claimer or allowance horse into a stakes runner in California than other circuits where the divide is greater. Mitchell is not alone. Look what O'Neill was able to do with Lava Man. I'm not naive enough to automatically assume ANY claiming-based trainer is clean, but Mitchell and O'Neill, for whatever reason, have been successful with new claims for years.
Was it better drugs or a better training job? I'd say more of the latter than the former, but nobody knows for sure. If drugs were taken out of the picture and cheaters were given no second chances, we wouldn't have to ask such questions.

Posted by: C on March 08, 2008 at 09:56 AM

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OFF THE TURF at FAIRGROUNDS!!!

Posted by: cayman01 on March 08, 2008 at 09:57 AM

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greetings from tampa bay...

it was raining sideways yesterday and it's extremely windy this morning.
be careful if you're going to play here today.

i'll take a stab on the "races of the week" link page.

gotham...
boxed exactas
#4 saratoga russell (over)
#1 giant moon
#2 laysh laysh laysh
#9 ling ling qi

LA. derby...
#4 j be k (over)
#7 blackberry road
#6 tale of ekati
#2 my pal charlie

good luck boys and girls... crash

Posted by: crashthe24 on March 08, 2008 at 09:59 AM

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Fair Grounds – (3-8-2008)
What a nice day of racing. For those who lament the lack of good racing in the 21st Century, I offer today as evidence to the contrary. I plan to only play these picks in $.10 superfecta wagers. To quote myself “it’s only beer money” (snort!)

Race 1 – Le Claire, Ghoul, Athena’s Gift, Dan’s Pride
Race 2 – Must Acquit, Cush, K Otee, Dega Papillion
Race 3 – Bam Bam Mathewson, Louisiana Lee, Ide Ball, Okie Souvenir
Race 4 – Pectoralis Major, Jacaranda Jane (SAf), Fianl Refrain, Ketish Lass
Race 5 – No Selections
Race 6 – No Selections
Race 7 – Brilliant, Fracas (Ire), Daytona (Ire), Proudinsky (Ger)
Race 8 – No Selections
Race 9 – J Be K, Yankee Bravo, Majestic Warrior, Pyro
Race 10 – Smitty’s Sunshine, Danceoftherealm (Ire), Iron Lips (GB), Tres Dream
Race 11 – Coragil Cat, Sea Gaze, Le Dauphin, King of Speed
Race 12 – Square Deal, Evade, Fort Apache, Seeking The Lord

Gulfstream Park – (3-8-2008)
Race 10 – Goldsville, Coach Shaw, Tizway, Amped

Laurel Park – (3-8-2008)
Race 10 – Elusive Moment (Ire), Miss Emeritus, Sharp Street, Liza Lu

Whew! Good luck, have fun, enjoy the weekend, and please be safe!
Van Savant

Posted by: Van Savant on March 08, 2008 at 10:06 AM

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Hey everyone! I really enjoy reading all of your comments and all the sharing of info.

Regarding Pyro in the La. Derby: I think that Asmussen was a little concerned heading into the Risen Star that he had Pyro a little to cranked up for that race. Of course after Pyro's performance who could argue, right? However as with all horses you want them to peak at the right time. It will be interesting to see if Pyro can move forward after his last race.

Posted by: LarryH on March 08, 2008 at 10:08 AM

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Dan-
I love the idea for the Past Champions. One horse that I thought might be interesting for this is Foolish Pleasure. I personally liked Ruffian better, but I think that he would would be interesting.

Posted by: Chase on March 08, 2008 at 10:19 AM

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2 months b 4 the derby and we have 10" of snow here in Louisville. Crazy...

Have a great day all

Posted by: larryk on March 08, 2008 at 10:20 AM

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vicstu,
I'm 2/2 so far on Big Brown, but I gotta play "C" for a second - he may be a great horse but let's wait on him yet. Speed can look really impressive when only challenged by lower quality talent...

Lenny,
Agree with you on SA4 and SA5 (part of my M5 "minnow") - and Good luck in the LRL contest today!!!!

Speaking of SA, here are the Tyler Baze Downhill picks of the day:
SA8 (n1x 6.5*fT 4+yoF&M): #11 Eva Beaver (ML:5/2)
SA10 (C32K 6.5*fT 4+yo): #2 Bitter Bill (ML:8/1)

Looking this morning at many of the non-FG stakes races (BTW, I love using the TBA homepage as a PP link) and except for the SAOaks (GoldenDocA), I'm picking "longshots" across the country (if chalk wins, it won't be with my money!)

Good luck today!!!

Posted by: Alan on March 08, 2008 at 10:37 AM

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Lenny I too am skeptical about Daaher's so-called career-ending injury. I'd bet his connex privately agreed that he was a flash in the pan and pulling the plug on his racing career was only way to preserve stud value.

Posted by: terry f on March 08, 2008 at 10:39 AM

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Alan and all:

Here my Godolphin Entrants:
Your seven active horses are:
BARRIER REEF (USA)
ETCHED (USA)
HAPPY BOY (BRZ)
JALIL (USA)
MY INDY (ARG)
NUMAANY (USA)
RIO DE LA PLATA (USA)

Your seven inactive horses are:
COCOA BEACH (CHI)
DIABOLICAL (USA)
DIJEERR (USA)
LITERATO (FR)
RAMONTI (FR)
THIRD SET (IRE)
WEST WIND (GB)

Posted by: larryk on March 08, 2008 at 10:41 AM

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Daaher Retired to stud- Well that was fun for about 4 months. How bout that stud fee 30k- Wow?
Then you can look at a horse like Silver Wagon on the back of the form today: standing for 5k-And he won G1 Hopeful @ 2 and the G1 Carter @ 6, and is out of the Mr. Prospector producing line.

Some plays:AquR9-Gotham- Love Roman Emperor
I feel a peak effort is in store for this Klesaris/ Empire Maker colt. Training forwardly @ Fair Hill, and can run all day long.
Loser's List-Saratoga Russell(6f to 2 turns 1 1/16m?) Also wins could have been slop/track aided.
GpR8-RichterScale-Always had a thing for Chatain-I think this distance could hit him right between the eyes.Penna has been ultra conservative w/ him and only runs him when he knows he's got 'em right.
Loser's List-Commentator- I still feel he's seen his best days, although comeback was impressive, still gotta see what he's gonna do when pressured and doesn't get 23.8/46 fractions.
FgR5-Kenner- Euroears has done nothing wrong and looks to have too much speed for this group.
Loser's List-Noonmark- I feel his win may have been slop aided @ GP in last, can never really trust this guy.
FgR9-La Derby- Pyro over all besides Tale of Ekati, Yankee Bravo, Majestic Warrior in exactas.
SaR9-SA Oaks- Lovely Isle last really impressed me staying at a distance of ground, if able to relax a little more, will be ultra tough.

Posted by: Steve V. on March 08, 2008 at 10:59 AM

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Lowlights from BM
Last weekend:
Friday

Race 3: ACEKINGQUEENJACTEN was hustled along early and led to the turn, was collared mid turn then stopped suddenly after a half mile.

Race 6: REAL POSSIBILITY stalked the winner two wide to the second turn, stopped and was eased in the stretch then walked off. I LIKE BLACKHAWKS pulled up on the first turn and was vanned off.

Race 7: FLASHING STAR was forwardly placed to the turn, stopped then was eased in the stretch but walked off.

Saturday

Race 5: BUDDEES ART was sent along and showed the way to the turn, was responding leaving the quarter pole but took a bad step and went wrong, was pulled up and vanned off.

Race 8: PURRFECTLY FITTING raced unhurried to the second turn, tried to rally from just off the rail but was pulled up entering the stretch then walked off.

Sunday

Race 1: NORTHLAND GLORY bobbled a bit at the start then pressed the pace three wide for a half mile, stopped on the second turn then was eased in the stretch but walked off.

Race 2: MARKET EXCHANGE dueled outside the winner to the turn, was edging away in the stretch but broke down at the three sixteenths and was vanned off.

Race 8: SUPER LIKIT dropped back to the rail to offer a bid at the furlong pole but went wrong in the deep stretch, pulled up lame and was vanned off.

Monday

Race 8: PERSIAN TELL was finished early and was eased in the stretch but walked off.

Criticize California Horse Racing Board chairman Richard Shapiro all you want but the reason for the sudden requirement to switch to synthetic tracks was the carnage at Del Mar in 2006 and a general public still concerned about Barbaro. Unfortunately, Bay Meadows was excused from the requirement and has been granted dates this year while racing on their dirt track.

Yes, it was a rush to judgment but it was done for the right reason -- the safety of the horses and riders. It hasn't been a smooth transition to synthetic racing in California, but I would rather see racing canceled than watch what happened at Bay Meadows last weekend.

Spot Plays/Highlights/Weather

Posted by: larryk on March 08, 2008 at 10:59 AM

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Fair Grounds Picks...

R5--Roi Maudit (10-1) with Le Gran Tois (5-1). RM should get a nice stalking trip from the outside post and I'll give him a pass from his dull effort last time on a sloppy GP track. His previous two were very good races. Nice price too.

R6--Silver Lord (5-1). Last race was good in defeat and today draws very well, and has a chance to wire them if he wants to.

R7-Tagg agressively ships Fracas (6-1) for his first American start. Interesting. Also Rick Pitino's horse, Buffalo Man (6-1) should get a nice ground-saving trip and get first crack at Daytona. Strong finishing time in last race.

R9--I'm fascinated by Yankee Bravo (4-1). I won't play him at those odds but I do think he'll go off at a much higher price than that. Two freight train finishes, both after some traffic, and the second one after lagging behind 49-1 and 1:14 in the Cal Derby.

Posted by: Greg on March 08, 2008 at 11:23 AM

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cayman01;

The Fair Grounds website shows the turf course as "yielding" for today (as of 10:00 a.m.). Help!
Thanks

Posted by: Van Savant on March 08, 2008 at 11:36 AM

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Running out of time scrambling for the races, boys.

In the big ones, here is who I like:

LA Derby
J Be K/Pyro/Tale of Ekati
exacta box and the trifecta

Gotham
Straight on Roman Emperor. He's got the pedigree, good works, seems to be in a nice spot here in a winnable race.

I gotta run, I'm late!

Lemon

Posted by: LemonSoupKid on March 08, 2008 at 11:48 AM

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Assorted Saturday Selections:

Aqueduct 2- Tax Man (6)-J. Jerkens 40% 2nd start, positive rider change and should get a good pace to close into with 3 confirmed speed horses (1,2,5)

Aqueduct 4- Ferocious Won (8)-Should get a solid pace setup and has a good wet track record. Winner of last went wire to wire against tougher.

Aqueduct 6- Jamacian Kev(7)- Drops in class after facing significantly better throughout career.

Aqueduct 9- Texas Wildcatter(7)- Finished deceptively well in Whirlaway. Sharp work on 3/2. Pace may be stonger than expected with Saratoga Russell, Southern Terminus, Larry's Revenge and Ling Ling Qi being forwardly placed. 2nd choice is Roman Emperor.

Laurel 9- Hartigan(6)- Had some trouble in last and closed well. Should get decent pace setup versus field where top foes have either been off since October or are questionable at the distance.

Gulstream 9- Hostess(8)- Gets an enormous positive rider switch. Was only a neck behind Wait a While who would be 1-5 in this race. Solid second pick is Mauralakana for the same class based reasons.

Fairgrounds 9- J Be K(4)- Could not have been more impressed with comeback race. Disputed solid pace and drew clear powerfully. Should be the controlling speed. In this Derby prep he needs the graded earnings significantly more than others. 2nd-Pyro, 3rd-Blackberry Road. The two I will be playing against are Yankee Bravo- Needs to improve speed figures 20+ points and has never raced or seemingly trained over dirt and Majestic Warrior. As impressive as the hopeful was, he got a great setup when Ready's Image went after Maimonides early and he was 6-1 so it is not like he was an expected superstar that day but rather capitalized on a solid pace. Long layoff and in good shape earnings wise.

Posted by: fuzzy9 on March 08, 2008 at 11:52 AM

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BRILLIANT IN THE MUNIZ ... AND LES GRAND TROIS IN THE DUNCAN KENNER

Posted by: OCANADA on March 08, 2008 at 12:01 PM

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Dan/Anyone:
Who was that hot chick on AM Gulfstream w/ Mike Welsch and Ron Nicoletti? Nice touch to the program.

Posted by: Steve V. on March 08, 2008 at 12:08 PM

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3YO Picks for Today:
Gotham: Giant Moon (stays clear of the mud), Roman Emperor, Saratoga Russell (1-3-4). Visionaire will have problems.
LA Derby: Pyro, Tale of Ekati, J Be K (3-6-4).
El Camino: Nikki'sgoldensteed, Coast Guard, Tres Borrachos, Preasure Grounds (1-8-5-6).
Sorry, lots of chalk today.

Posted by: Leo on March 08, 2008 at 12:09 PM

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For those of you playing Oaklawn today Spotsgone will be scratched because of a bruise in his foot. Nothing serious but the trainer said he wouldn't be a 100% if he raced him. Looks like that leaves Jonesboro as the controlling speed.

Posted by: LarryH on March 08, 2008 at 12:13 PM

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Dan and All,

Any reason that Fairgrounds or any other track for thast matter, can't swtich their Saturday and Sunday programs?
I know you'd have to give advanced warning ( say yesterday during the monsoon!)
but i think we'd AlL like to see the turf races on the turf
instead of a bunch of ?'s on dirt. Kind of dampens the day.
Now I have to re-select and will probably just pass the whole thing.

C,
As for Big Booster I had him in the HGP last year on the trainer angle, AND he definitely likes Hollywood over SA. I won't play him until he gets back to HP.

Posted by: cayman01 on March 08, 2008 at 12:15 PM

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Are they really off the turf at the Fairgrounds?

Posted by: stoneysooner on March 08, 2008 at 12:19 PM

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Right now it looks to be listed as the main track fast, and the turf course yielding.

Posted by: stoneysooner on March 08, 2008 at 12:21 PM

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SA Selections Sat 3/8/08:
1.4,3,5,6
2.6,2,4,3
3. 2,5,3,7
4. 6,5,2,7
5. 7,1,4,3
6. 3,5,7,8(10 interesting with CN and JM, and 3 interesting j/t combo)
7. 3,6,2
8. 7,11,2,3,5(wide open down the hill race-2 of the top ROI's in jocks..hhhmmm 7/11)
9.3,4,1,7
10. 10,2,3,8,5

Posted by: larryk on March 08, 2008 at 12:24 PM

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TF is Yielding at FG

Posted by: larryk on March 08, 2008 at 12:51 PM

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RE: Horsemen with the "Magic" touch

Ask yourselves: does cheating exist in horse racing???

I'm not aware of anyone closely involved in this sport that answers this question "No"... So then, how do we see it???

For one, magical transformations of claiming horses into G1 stakes winners might be a good place to start... When such a transformation occurs, would we expect said trainer to respond with some flippant comment like..."all that horse needed was the right veterinarian or special care, wink wink..."....of course not, you'd expect to hear some BS about some training change that they made... Now there are some legitimate examples where maybe a horse was claimed from a trainer that might lack ability and skill but when you claim a horse from a guy like Christophe Clement, it's not like this guy doesn't know his way around elite turf horses, does he???

It only takes a little observation, sound logic and common sense to figure this stuff out, particularly when there is a repetitive pattern... Unfortunately, it's not always illegal stuff as for example, steroid use (at any level, not merely to support a geldings loss of testosterone or therapeutic recovery use) is still legal in NY and all you have to do is look at frequent attenders to the winner's circle to find obscene and excessive use (i.e. weekly injections of Winstrol or Equipoise). I can't wait for NY and NYRA to get serious about getting the abused substances out of this game with stern enforcement and repercussions. When this happens, looks for a dramatic impact to the leading trainer standings....

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on March 08, 2008 at 12:55 PM

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I HOPE they stay on turf at LaD! What is wrong with us? In Europe they run almost exclusively on soft wet courses, but the slightest rain here... Off Turf!! Take em Off the Turf!!!

C,

Well said. Were in agreement.

Good Luck All!

Posted by: CaliBob on March 08, 2008 at 01:00 PM

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Larry,
You can't look at an isolated subset of races (most of them were cheap claimers in the $4000-$9000 range) and draw broad conclusions. Over the summer, there was a week-long stretch at Arlington that saw about 17 breakdowns/van-offs. DelMar last summer perhaps didn't have as many breakdowns, but certainly had plenty of van-offs and walk-offs. What about all other dirt races at other tracks that went off without a problem?
I agree with Dan that we're not in the "long-term" yet... that's going to take several more years. And we can't use Lingfield and Wolverhampton as "evidence" because there are no drugs there, which immediately make any comparison to American racing invalid. Sure, not many horses break down at Lingfield... but not many break down at Newmarket or York either.
In fact, if a statistician wanted to investigate the cause-and-effect relationship between drug use and breakdowns, a comparison between Arlington and Lingfield (both polytrack) might be a good starting point. Do you want to guess what the conclusion of that study will be? Something tells me Shapiro, Dickinson, and others would keep the results of that correlation real quiet.

Posted by: C on March 08, 2008 at 01:08 PM

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Maybe he'll surprise me, but I just don't like the chances of J Be K wiring this particular field today.

Posted by: C on March 08, 2008 at 01:27 PM

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RE: Identifying the effect of EPO

This blood doping agent is certainly banned everywhere but I believe that clever veterinarians have figured out how to cycle the substance such that the positive effect lags from the testing detection. The key to enforcment here is to randomly show up in barns and test horses (not merely on race day).

What does the effect look like? It doesn't make a horse faster, rather it allows a horse to carry it's speed further than it would otherwise (enhanced endurance at peak performance level).

This is easier to visually observe in dirt racing versus turf (and in some cases synthetic) because the natural pace progression is declining through the finish line. The biggest visual clue is when a horse gets beaten (within the stretch), they rarely come back on the other horse (some very tough and gutsy horses "naturally" do, but it's very few, particularly when a "good" horse has eyed them down and pulled away from them as they've usually spent themselves in that battle).

If you pay attention to this, you'll see that some trainers have an inordinate amount of horses that pull this feat off. Essentially when the horse that beats them begins the natural gradual pace slowdown, the beaten horse runs evenly and continues on and passes the horse that had beaten it. I'm not making any accusations here in this example but it resembles what the stretch run in last year's Preakness looked like.

Sometimes, you can't tell for sure as the horse just pulls away in the stretch for a monstrous blow out win. It could simply be that the horse is a monster or it could be drug assisted or a combination, this is more difficult to determine until you consider the trainer involved...

When this sport announces random barn testing of horses in training and then enforces stiff penalties, then we'll know that progress is being made. Until then, it's all lip service and status quo...

By the way, is it just me or given the fact that inter-state gambling is involved, shouldn't cheating that effects gambling outcome be a serious Federal offense?? Normally, I'm not big on Federal involvement in State's affairs but in this case, I think it might be the only way to seriously solve the issue as there is just too much current political cronyism to get any material change effected...

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on March 08, 2008 at 01:27 PM

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Gotham:
Ling Ling Qi
Giant Moon
Roman Emperor
Texas Wildcatter

LA Derby:
Blackberry Road
Pyro
Stevil
Majestic Warrior

Kenney

Posted by: Kenney on March 08, 2008 at 01:33 PM

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Note:

To all "Mambo in Seattle" fans
worked on 3/8 at Fairgrounds
4f 50.2

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on March 08, 2008 at 01:36 PM

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SA 4th Race:
A horse you may want to include in your exotics, would be the 1....She would this horse last, I'm sure she would've had an opp. to ride Hess's horse who she would last, she's done well with Unusual Heats.
I'm gonna miss her riding in S. Ca. She has done real well, with limited mounts

Posted by: larryk on March 08, 2008 at 02:18 PM

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C,

Not drawing any conclusions, kinda interesting though.

Posted by: larryk on March 08, 2008 at 02:23 PM

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NOW we're back on the turf at FG ! Crazy.

5,6,12 bomber exacta in the 4th.

Add the 2 for a dime super.

Posted by: cayman01 on March 08, 2008 at 02:57 PM

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Larry, it certainly wasn't a great weekend there, that's for sure. None of us enjoy seeing that-- the one thing we all have in common.

Posted by: C on March 08, 2008 at 03:51 PM

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CaliBob,
In Europe a "meeting" may be all of one day in length. They choose to run on the grass because it may be several days or even weeks before they return to use the course. Here, in the good ol' USA, we have long meets and try to protect the turf course as much as possible. Tracks, in general, love races on the turf. They draw larger fields and larger handle. Many people who complain about races taken off of the turf will be the first to complain when a race is run on an off course and a horse breaks down.

Posted by: Ray Manley on March 08, 2008 at 04:23 PM

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First two picks of horses just because I liked their mamas -
Gulfstream 10 - Old Ninety Eight out of Manistique
SA 9 - Ariege out of Kostroma
BM 8 concrete poetry exacta box - Coast Guard, BehindattheBar and Tres Borrachos
In the Gotham I like Giant Moon; mostly because this is a step in a program that they'd mapped out for him from the start but have to consider Roman Emporer a little bit of a threat, with the same running style. Like Texas Wildcatter, Ling Ling Qi and Visionaire underneath.
At FG, just to be contrary I'll go with Pyro ( I mean what has he done wrong?) Majestic Warrior gives me a hunch-y kind of feeling, although the works don't seem to indicate he's ready for a top effort. No way to know how long he was galloping before the timed works and, nor any clocker info on how he's filled out. Yankee Bravo has a brilliant turn of foot that he seems able to produce at any point he needs it, but the dirt, particularly kickback, is a question for me.
Just now see that they've shortened the Very One by a quarter of a mile,
At the original distance liked Cliffrose and Hostess; J'Ray and Mauralakana move up in my estimation at the shorter distance.
Good luck to all

Posted by: nancyb on March 08, 2008 at 04:28 PM

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"The 3 year olds have disappeared into the fog...here at Aqueduct."

Quite an interesting chore to discren what was going on through my NYRA video feed...in the Gotham. Looked to me as if Saratoga Russell pretty much packed it in around 7 furlongs and the Pletcher grey Texas Wilcatter took over from there, opened up a 2-3 length lead in the stretch and was nailed by a late closing Visionaire who was moving very nicely late to the wire. Still no official call, the announcer about as sure as I am...but it looked like a Visionaire win by a head and the Matz colt looks like he wants more ground (and coming off a classy race helped here).

Anyone else see it any differently? What happened to Giant Moon and Roman Emp? They were in it early, ok fractions, then gone...

Kina like Proud Spell to nail I.B. at the finish today, Jones will have her closer to the pace to pressure IB...

Posted by: vicstu on March 08, 2008 at 05:13 PM

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Circular Quay returns to the scene of the crime...Fair Grounds (with blinkers on)! And wins today over Grasshopper in an upset. Too bad the could not run the Derby or Preakness at the Fairgrounds at 8.5 panels, eh?

Errr, forget about that one...Hard Spun would have buried CQ at 8.5 panels at the Fair Grounds, as would Curlin and SS (although they would not have caught HS at 8.5 panels).

Anyhow, Visionaire today up close at the end in the Gotham. Big win for the classy Matz horse.

I like Proud Spell by a head over Indian Blessing in 1 minute at the FG, and real big on the Pyro, Yankee Bravo and J Be K trifecta box with Blackberry Road bet hard by me here to hit the board or win with Albarado on the mount for the 1st time.

Pyro, YB, JbK, BB Road (boxed, over and under).

Posted by: svhill on March 08, 2008 at 05:21 PM

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Congrats to Proud Spell and Larry Jones for finally beating your nemisis, Indian Blessing!

Excellent race...

And some say Proud Spell has competition for best 3 year old filly in the Jones barn...Jones is loaded for the Oaks this year!

Posted by: vicstu on March 08, 2008 at 05:25 PM

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Dan,
Did Tale of Ekati finish yet? OK, you've seen him do it twice now. Plus Visionaire flatters him by winning the Gotham. Will you give Pyro his due?

Posted by: jim tully on March 08, 2008 at 05:55 PM

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RE;
Gotham

So, did I see this(or not)in the fog..
but did the jockey(Arroyo) on Texas Wildcatter let up on him after getting the lead by 4-5 lenghts,
and never saw Visionaire come 'out of the fog' flying late up the rail, until it was too late, and then go to the whip?
I know I couldn't see much on the replay, but I'm sure the jockeys can see.
Visionaire still did great to close but I think Texas Wildcatter should have won, this one. (even by a nose)
..just a thought.
Had no $$ bet, just RTTR points.

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on March 08, 2008 at 06:28 PM

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Well since I've been picking right and not posting prior to races, let me make one upcoming - I like Nikki'sgolensteed coming up here at Bay Meadows. Couldn't make it off my street to go to Thistledown to bet on Visionaire, but had him and Pyro on RTTR.
I've shoveled and snow blown 10" of snow 3 times so far today. I have a Cleveland sidewalk snowblower and we're having a Buffalo snowstorm.
Uncle Steve, how's the weather out there? It looks nice

Posted by: Steveincleveland on March 08, 2008 at 07:28 PM

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Pyro is going to be a very interesting handicapping test case come Derby Day.

He certainly passes the eye test but hasn't passed the clock test at least this year. 90 last time, and today they were slower than the gals, though much of that was attributable to a 6f time that was a full second slower than the gals race. No idea what kind of figure this one gets, but we already know that Pyro can run fast. He did it as a 2yo, so I don't think it's a huge concern and he still has another prep race.

I might be premature here, and we'll wait to see what figure he gets, but it's possible that Pyro could be quite an impressive-looking horse, getting an A+ on the eye test, with low figures on the year.

Of course it's possible the gals ran really fast today and there is no issue. We'll see.

Posted by: Greg on March 08, 2008 at 07:34 PM

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FG Oaks:
That was a paid workout if I've ever seen one.
Notice the way Gomez took Indian Blessing off the rail, applied the old strangle hold, and waited and waited for Proud Spell to do something. Looks like they wanted her to get some heat from the left to simulate what might happen if she doesn't get the lead and rail. Mission failed. I don't think it's because Saez didn't take the bait. I think it's because Indian Blessing is the faster filly by a mile. She was toying with Proud Spell for most of that race, and if she was ridden like the race meant something, I think she could've opened up by a city block at will. I'm not taking anything away from Proud Spell, who ran nicely. In fact, Proud Spell probably got more out of this exhibition than Indian Blessing. I didn't play today, so I had no monetary interest in the result, but I'm putting zero stock into the finishing order of this race.

Posted by: C on March 08, 2008 at 08:03 PM

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TODAY'S GOTHAM STAKES:

The Greatest Race We Never Saw

Posted by: CaliBob on March 08, 2008 at 09:00 PM

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C,
Not sure what you're getting at w/ Indian Blessing: She simply does not want to go that long. Gomez said after her last win; that he was hoping the 1/16 pole was the finish line b/c she was getting very tired. The BC win was over the slop @Mth that was definitely carrying speed as it also helped War Pass later that day.Trainers/jockeys don't often try to screw around with their horses during races-especially in a graded stake.
I also noticed people saying the LaDerby didn't mean much to Pyro either b/c he already had enough in graded stakes earnings(Yea Right-As if he'd be trying any less).Connections give 100% effort in these kind of races. After all how many races to these gifted animals really give them in a year to be tinkering around w/ them in these kind of stakes races.

One other note:Anyone notice the similarities of Saratoga Russell & J Be K. Both well bet speedy youngsters coming off 6f races in consecutive fashionable wins. But, this was a whole new ballgame for them today going 2 turns for the first time and having to negotiate 2 1/2 more furlongs-Against the toughest competiton they've faced yet.
Glad-I didn't put my $ on either of them -as they both finished well of the board & badly beaten.

Posted by: Steve V. on March 08, 2008 at 09:16 PM

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C
I think Indian Blessing will be most effective up to one mile and isn't most effective against top company further than that, and will be pointed to the Prioress and Test.

Posted by: AlHattab on March 08, 2008 at 10:00 PM

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Some very nice efforts on a MOST FORGETTABLE DAY for me (but unfortunately not forgettable for my bankroll!!) I was out of my All Stakes P5 and P4 tickets after Circular Quay rediscovered FG. Even if Grasshoppper won, I would have still been out of all my tickets after FG8/Indian Blessing - CQ just put me out of my misery earlier in the sequence!! And C, what was Gomez doing on Indian Blessing?

Pyro was very impressive in the LaDerby. Racing closer to the pace this time, Pyro was able to get through traffic in the stretch and accelerate nicely to the finish - in some ways, his effort reminded me of Afleet Alex... Pyro was also flattered by the Visionaire's victory in the AQU fog - vicstu, BTW I loved the race call - and you can never see a Giant Moon in such thick fog...

Steveincleveland,
Be thankful you're not Steveincolumbus - they got 20"! At least there was a good reason to cancel Beulah Park racing today! Thank goodness for global warming - it could have been even worse for you!? We're only getting rain, thunderstorms and 50 mph winds here in Maryland - although the winds were so bad today it blew a huge ship unloading cars away from the port of Baltimore back into the harbor!!

I updated the Formblog Derby Dreaming spreadsheet - Uncle Steve, should I add Autism Awareness to the POOL after his victory in the ElCaminoReal?:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL6U-SO_z3pEXw
If you notice any errors, please tell me....THANKS!!

Posted by: Alan on March 08, 2008 at 10:11 PM

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Saturday impressions:

Steve V
The lone speed many, including me, anticipated with J Be K didn't materialize. And while you couldn't see, one had to assume that Saratoga Russell was getting hounded given the 46 and change 1/2 he endured.

If anything, we were again reminded of the Harvey Pack lesson about being skeptical about a horse doing something he hasn't done before. I really liked J Be K and believed he would get lose, but he was impossible to bet at 9/2. So I went with another loser (Tale of Ekati). Not sure if anyone noticed by the way that Tale of Ekati went from 7/1 to about 9/2 with about 2 minutes to post?

Saratoga Russell's price was almost equally crazy. They could've run the race a million times and I don't see betting him at 6/5 (I said the same thing about Sir Greeley in the Tobogaan). I think Visionaire's run, while impressive, was a bit deceptive. 4th quarter was in :26 and final 5 1/16 in :33. Anyone know with certainty the wind influence? According to noaa.gov there was a strong south wind around the time of the race, and that I believe is a tailwind at the Big A, and that wind may have created the apparently slow final splits.

I wonder what they were thinking with Blackberry Road? I'd send him to Keeneland and revert to closing style- he might like the fake stuff and bias.

Dan tabbed Euroears a month or so ago, either in this blog or Blinkers Off, and he looked the part today with a sub :24 final quarter done easily. Not the toughest field, but man he looked good.

I was shocked with Circular Quay. Anyone else think Albarado was a little overconfident on Grasshopper? I didn't think Albarado started getting after the horse until very late in the drive.

That filly Ariege by Kostroma looked nice today (thanks nancy b). I wonder if she'll dirt? Frankel will probably train her up to the Oaks.

Rene Douglas really rides the turf well, doesn't he?

Posted by: AlHattab on March 08, 2008 at 11:00 PM

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Alan,

Speaking of Autism Awareness, he goes down with Student Council in the Pacific Classic as being two of the most surprising stretch runs I've ever witnessed.

I handicapped this race for some time, and when he passed the leaders in the stretch I think I stopped breathing. How!!?? Haha even though I lost the race (just like the Classic) I was struck by the same awe watching this little horse that took like 10 races to break his mdn, make his first race against winners a graded race victory!

Posted by: CaliBob on March 08, 2008 at 11:32 PM

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Quick thought on the LADerby. I for one didn't jump in heads first with Pyro's win in the Risen Star. What I saw today in his race was one of the more professional 3 yr. olds I have ever seen. Pyro is really a push button horse. He has to be a real treat for both trainer and, jockey.
Also will add I don't won't to read or anything about the slow time of the race. Pyro was way better than that bunch I have been high on Tale of Ekati, and Majestic Warrior. Still think the are nice horses but, there is NO-WAY they improve enought in the next eight weeks to run with that beast. It know looks to me that the 6/1, or what ever Pyro closed at in the 1st future pool would have been a good bet.

Also have to say congrats to Larry Jones and, Proud Spell. As stated before I think LJ is one heck of a trainer. Should have won the Derby last year with HS, maybe the horse gods will shine on him with an OAKS win this year with Proud Spell, -(Eight Belles). IMO there is no way Indian Blessing's connections were playing around today with her performance. She just got beat by a better horse today.

Good Luck to All Tomorrow!

Posted by: johnnyz on March 08, 2008 at 11:47 PM

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Dan,

Are the PPs at your Kentucky Derby site--http://drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/preps.html --placed there before the race (the same time as your weekly free races) or after the race?

Posted by: PGM on March 09, 2008 at 01:03 AM

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Steve V,
I would agree with your post most of the time. But some larger stables still use races as conditioning steps, especially G2/G3s during Derby/Oaks prep season. Was El Gato Malo learning a lesson in the Sham? I can buy it.
I try not to pay much attention to trainer quotes, but Baffert wanted to test Indian Blessing's limits by giving her a real challenge in a race, something she's never really had. I'm guessing the FG Oaks was a test to figure out the rest of her schedule. At least I hope so... otherwise, what in the world was Gomez doing? Again, I had no money on the race and am usually one of the last people to hassle jockeys, but that was either a choreographed exercise or a horrendous ride.

Posted by: C on March 09, 2008 at 01:22 AM

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SANTA ANITA – Sunday (03-09-2008)

This is dedicated to all of you who are looking for a new crush after this weekend (written by MY first crush – Grace Slick):

When the truth is found - to be lies, and all the joy - within you dies. Don't you want somebody to love, don't you need somebody to love, wouldn't you love somebody to love, you better find somebody to love.

Race 1

What a treat – a $25K maiden claimer that has a horse that is trying for the 26th time, one that is trying for the 15th time and one that the lowest odds ever have been 104/1. And a short field to boot! Anyway, STAR’S PROMISE is one of my watch list horses, and has been 2nd three straight times and is the only one that has any speed at all – think she can control it from the front.. I am probably jinxing her by making her my first pick. CONCINNOUS has been my own personal headcase, has the breeding, makes attempts on occasion, and has been up and down I-5. I think the distance may actually let him show his stuff. Last and probably least is PROFITBOX – two decent works on the Cushion Ride and gets Chantal Sutherland, could be a wake-up call.

Note to the men: Yes Chantal is a total babe, unfortunately she’s hooked up with Mike Smith – and her hobby is handicapping. Man if her dad owns a bar and a pizza joint, we’re talking an 11!

Star’s Promise
Concinnous
Profitbox

Dr. Derango: You are kidding, right?

Race 2

E BRADLEY is first choice in this 32K maiden claimer. Like many of the E Dubai’s, he has done a 180 since they reformulated the track. He goes from dying on the vine at 5.5F and 6F on the Cushion track to a closing one length loss on Cushion Ride. SPANISH HEAT’s last three have been quite respectable and the 5.5F distance and Bejarano should make him competitive. Think there is room for a firster, the best works are coming from WARREN’S SASSY CAT who has a “live work set” coming into this race.

E Bradley
Spanish Heat
Warren’s Sassy Cat

Dr. Derango: Did someone say firsty? I am ABSOLUTELY SMITTEN! By a 33% hit rate by the trainer on first timers and a $4.37 ROI.

Race 3

I like the Eastern invader ROSHANI, lifetime record is 8-4-2-1. Pletcher and Gomez. Runs very well off of layoffs. PERSIAN EXPRESS has nice works on turf and Cushion Ride in prep for his U.S. debut. Was running with the likes of Blackat Blackitten and Capricorn Run in the U.K. Welcome to the U.S. of A.! SHERMEEN has been picking on the best female turfers in California – Double Trouble, Black Mamba, Trick’s Picks, Sweet Belle, Precious Kitten, you get the idea. If he wasn’t on the rail I would place him higher.

Roshani
Persian Express
Shermeen

Dr. Derango: I think you all need a shot of Cuervo Gold – wait a minute that’s me. I mean you all could do with a dose of GULA GOLD. Michael Baze seems to have this one dialed in. Could be a very nice overlay.

Race 4

CARRESIVE finished two back in the Gr. II La Canada last out. Previous tangles with Zenyatta and Quite A Stormkat as well. Harty is hot now and Bejarano rides. OVER FORLI, my Brazilian Bomber comes off of a closing place in a ALW-54K. Think the distance will suit him and he likes the surface. SCARLETT’S PLACE deserves to be here as well – she closed them out at a mile in her last race. Works are nice.

Carresive
Over Forli
Scarlett’s Place

Dr. Derango: Pretty picked over lot.

Race 5

MACADAMIA has run with better, seems to becoming a specialist in the downhill. Alan’s buddy Tyler Baze on top. My baby STEELIN’ is back after a short rest. She is 2/3 on the course and almost always on double digit odds. SQUEEZE ME TIGHT is my final pick. The farthest she has been beaten by in her last ten races was 2 lengths.

Macadamia
Steelin’
Squeeze Me Tight

Dr. Derango: Nothing interesting.

Race 6

The only one halfway close to par is OUR ROAD SCHOLAR. Her last two were very nice places at this level. The cutback to 5.5F should assist. TITAN QUEEN’s last is a throwout – this filly wants no part of a route. The two before that were against better and at 6 and 6 ½ furlongs. She is a Tiznow, who are known for late maturity and she is a May baby to boot. Now the question is which one of the firstys are going to pop up. SQUARE GENIUS seems to have slightly better works than the others and I have actually seen his sire’s name before.

Our Road Scholar
Titan Queen
Square Genius

Dr. Demento: I think I am coming down with a fever.

Race 7

IN DADDY’S HONOR has strung together four nice races. The last two being wins at this distance and at 7F. Has the “live work set”, runs for Mitchell – who has a 27% hit rate on “won last start”. BEAU’S VALENTINE comes in from Turf Paradise riding a four race win streak. Albeit against lesser, his times says he can compete with these. The negative is this will be the first time he steps foot on Cushion Ride. ALMACITA is another Mitchell runner who didn’t do so good in her first run post-maiden. The good news is that her other races were nice.

In Daddy’s Honor
Beau’s Valentine
Almacita

Dr. Derango: Do you like meeting horses from other states and countries? Well meet SWEET ROSEMAN boys and girls, he is from New Mexico, and judging by his Cushion Ride works, I think he will like it here just fine.

Race 8

FOREST PRINCE is one who has been swimming upstream against the likes of Etched, Signature Move, Sargent Seattle and Processors Turf. The only question is how he will take to turf – don’t think there is a lot of turf data on Mineshaft yet. SAVVY AND SMOOTH was caught late in his first downhill run by Returning. Bejarano takes the irons for the first time. SANQUINE is a firster for Craig Dollase with a string of very nice works. He is by Sligo Bay so I am not going to worry about the first start on turf.

Forest Prince
Savvy and Smooth
Sanquine

Dr. Derango: Did I mention I like Elusive Qualitys? Yeah I do. So then it is no surprise that I am marking ELUSIVE CHIEF as my pick. The downhill is a tough place to break your maiden, but his works are nice and the Elusive Qualitys seem to do well from their first start.

Race 9

This is going to be a good race, some very talented fillies and mares. I like the progression of DOUBLE TROUBLE and her pulling away win in the Gr. I Santa Maria. Frankel and Bejarano are the supporting cast. I think she continues to improve and beats the two favorites. ZENYATTA certainly looks on the verge of stardom – this will be an acid test. NASHOBA’S KEY loves the surface and I think she is fit. A real toss-up among the three of them.

Double Trouble
Zenyatta
Nashoba’s Key

Dr. Derango: Does I LOOK like I’m smoking crack??

Race 10

The not-so-super Super Five race entries. TRICK A CAT has the record to take this – three of his four wins are at a mile on the turf. MARK SET GO has three nice turf races, never finishing worst than two lengths behind the winner. Kathy Walsh and Garrett Gomez. The trainer also has a very nice 38% hit rate on sprint to route. READY MAID has been battling Zenyatta, Lavender Sky and Forest Melody. None of those types here. Downside – the trainer is starting the meet 0 fer 19.

Trick A Cat
Mark Set Go
Ready Maid

Dr. Derango: Now this is a horse name I really like – SIX SENSE OF HUMOR. He comes down on the I-5 Express from GG. A string of nice works at GG.

Posted by: Steve T on March 09, 2008 at 03:22 AM

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Congratulations to vicstu on some nice picks Saturday:

La. Derby:
You had Pyro and Yankee Bravo over and under and threw in My Pal Charlie under for good measure. The 3-2 exacta paid $80.20 and the 328 Trifecta paid $556.00. Longshot MPC paid $26.00 and $10.80 to hit the board.

Gotham:
You had Visionaire as one of your over and unders and Texas Wildcatter as an underneath on the exotic. That was an $84.50 exacta($2).

FG Oaks: You had Proud Spell over Indian Blessing (as did I). She paid $5.80 to win. Not great money, but a pick is a pick.

Did anyone have that longshot Autism Awareness in the El Camino Real? Nickkisgoldensteed was there but that longshot AA was too much deep in the stretch.

I am pointing this out because when we meet later this week at the OTB, you are paying for the drinks and snacks, right?

Hey Alan,

I don't think vicstu was saying Big Brown was going to win the Derby, only that he was a nice horse whose jockey must think the world of him.
Did Alaazo get you gun shy or something (about allowance running horses?) Its ok to dream, right Alan?

Big Brown looked very impressive in both his races to me...and a couple of the horses he has beaten (such as Globalization) are stakes placed horses or were in the BC Juveniles.

He is a very fast horses with impressive wins, but I digress. Surely vicstu can carry on about Big Brown this weekend since last weekend was Alaazo lovefest weekend, correct? And since you already had Alaazo halfway to a Derby post, give BB the same credit and chance...Since BB is going to the Florida Derby, perhaps you can go 3 for 3!

The trainer and jockey think BB is a freak. I can remember them saying the same thing about Hard Spun after the 2007 LeComte and then the freak word was in play again when Curlin romped in his maiden win. Those 2 freaks turned out quite well...
so maybe, BB will follow that path. Who knows?

Pyro ran a nice race, Saturday. I liked the move to get him closer to the pace early on. Speaking of pace, what in the world happened to the pace in the La Derby? 24 and change, 48 and change? Say what? It makes no sense to rate a speed horse like J be K off of those slow fractions. Yet another super slow race. Doesn't anyone race their horses to run brisk, honest fractions anymore?

War Pass would have left that field far, far behind.

The fillies were faster...again!
But Pyro does well with the pace he is given, and I thought Yankee Bravo did ok closing to get 3rd. My Pal Charlie ran the race of his life.

Tale of Ekati and Majestic Warrior simply needed this race. They also are missing some serious seasoning at this juncture. Its very hard to get back on track...the connections will have decisions to make.

Posted by: svhill on March 09, 2008 at 08:08 AM

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I confess!!!! Pyro is the REAL DEAL! Now that he has proven he can lay close to the pace and won't have to pass 19 horses in the Derby, I gotta give him his due. BUT he is still second (but a closer second) to War Pass on my list. We won't learn much next week in the TB Derby I'm afraid. Even if he wakes up "on the wrong side of the stall" and doesn't win the race for some reason (can't see that happening but it could) the next Future Bet doesn't close till after the Woods, so the "6/1 ship" has sailed (no one to blame but mysefl)

My future pick Giant Moon really has his back against the wall now. Guessing he just didn't like the going so now he'll have to avoid War Pass and Pyro and find a spot to get some graded earnings (but I'm not giving up yet)

Posted by: Stephen Taylor on March 09, 2008 at 08:38 AM

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Alan, I was trying to say that I had to shovel and snow blow 10" of snow 3 times because I got closer to 30". A lot of drifting too.
But today the sun is shining and the roads have been plowed and I may venture out.
Looking for some value in the futures pools. I don't see anything I like on the Derby side, but maybe She's All Eltish on the Oaks side. I see Eight Belles has attracted some attention and played down to single digits. Anyone think there is any value in the futures?

Posted by: Steveincleveland on March 09, 2008 at 10:13 AM

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First off, I must apologize to all for the turf/off turf confusion. when i first looked at FG on the xpressbet site they WERE off the turf at about 11:00 a.m.
Eastern time. When i checked back at 1:30 it had changed to yielding. Sorry.

The betting gods paid me back by sinking me every third race to kill my pick3's ,4's and 5. Proudinsky
absolutely sunk me like the iceberg that hit the Titanic.
Had a 1x4x4x1x4 Pick5 and proudinsky wasn't among the four ( thank you Buffalo Man and Brilliant for completing the bottom exacta).I hit the other four. Ditto the pick4.

Then to kick myself when i was down i left off Daneroftherealm in the Bienville because I didn't like the post. Nice move me.

good luck today guys.

Posted by: cayman01 on March 09, 2008 at 10:41 AM

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Santa Margarita Handicap,

I'll be singling Nashoba's Key based on Gomez taking over the reins. Talamo is very food but he got outridden last time out on this filly by Gomez on Quite A Bride. I'm not sure she'd of won it anyways first out after the Breeders Cup.

A good longshot to throw into the exotics would be Good Mood. Should get the longest price this filly has ever been at. Guillot can get it done with a good horse like this, and it looks like he has here fit and ready based on the last two works. If she handles the surface switch she can definitely close for 3rd and maybe even 2nd if Zenyatta and Double Trouble don't bring it.

Will probaly play a trifecta of 8/2,6/2,3,6 and exacta 6,8/3

Posted by: tbone on March 09, 2008 at 10:52 AM

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LA Oaks,

interesting to see where the top two will run next. Indian Blessing is top class at a mile but seems to start losing her effectiveness after that. Wonder if they'll send her to Keeneland for the 1 1/16 Ashland? I'm sure Jones will be heading there with Proud Spell and/or his other filly. Frankel has mentioned that race as a possibility for Country Star and his SA Oaks winner Ariege. Could turn out to be a great race.

Anyone see the "match" race yesterday at GP? What a disgrace..Field of 10 scratched down to two horses. It would be more understandable if it was a turf race that was taken off
but this one was a dirt race!
Nice offering for a Saturday card Frank! Only good thing was when race caller Larry Collmus announced "Seabiscuit & War Admiral now entering the gate"...

Posted by: dk on March 09, 2008 at 11:19 AM

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Larry-
I was at Arlington on a fairly regular basis last year (I'm involved in a small partnership, and earned enough twin spires points to get Derby seats, so spent way too much time-or money there) and I don't remember a week long stretch where there were 17 breakdowns/van-offs. In my opionion the mistake that Santa Anita made wasn't going to artificial surface, but going to a company that was obviously (and I know hindsite is 20/20) not in it for the long hall, to put it nicely since no one can find them! The best endorsement that I can give Polytrack is, whether you like him or not, Todd Pletcher. He doesn't have many (if any) "inexpensive" horses in his barn, and he trusted Poly enought to send a good size string of horses to Arlington last summer. (And on a personal note, I doubt that I would have gotten involved in the partnership that races at Arlington had they not changed surfaces-no matter what any one says, the track in 2006 was flat out dangerous!)

Posted by: Stephen Taylor on March 09, 2008 at 11:19 AM

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The way you've been picking, I'm surprised you didn't have Autism Awareness as your best bet.

A fool for magic
this ol' hound
At your risk
ignore Big Brown

Posted by: Floppydog on March 09, 2008 at 11:52 AM

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larryk,

nice run of saturday picks

rex

Posted by: rex on March 09, 2008 at 11:53 AM

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PYRO could be fool's gold on Derby day. Sucker chalk.

Still hasn't beat anything of quality he will face in May. Wanna see him get boxed in and knocked around before I believe he is real deal. The boutique races this year pale in comparison to what he will face in full field of Derby and rough way it is run, especially if he has never experienced it beforehand. What if some rank outsider knocks him sideways? Will he sulk? Is he a battler? Dunno, never tested in the physical aspects of a race such as the Derby. If plans go forward to go in final prep in Blue Grass, he will have accomplished NOTHING, beaten no one of any consequence, and actually be stepping UP in true class in the Derby, given what passes for competition to date.

Don't like his sire one bit, plus he has the unsound genes of TURN-TO under his dam.

PYRO will burn a lot of money if he makes it to the Derby; looking for longshot over $20 to win. I seem to recall betting PULPIT in a race in Ky. that he couldn't lose...but did, much to my wallet's chagrin. Some things you never forget.

Overall, this year's crop still not fleshed out; be very interesting to see War Pass break clear of pack, only to be run down, going away, by Rich Dutrow's latest screamer. PYRO? I figure he gets tangled in traffic, shakes clear for minor share, too late to be a factor.

If they were really serious with PYRO, I would like to see him knock heads with betters, even if in a loss, as a more realistic Derby prep. He is a homebred who has already made his money, so not in love with him as fave going forward.

Posted by: Dan, Enola, PA on March 09, 2008 at 12:46 PM

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Rewatch the Risen Star. Pyro wasn't really THAT much closer to the early pace yesterday. He was about 4, 4+ lengths off yesterday's pace, and in the (tightly bunched) Risen Star, he was about 6-7 lengths off. Of course, he didn't have nearly as much traffic in front of him yesterday. He ran a nice race and I look forward to his next start, away from Fairgrounds and at 1 1/8 against a different group.

------------------------------
RE: Desormeaux's comments on Big Brown
Premium Tap didn't train on, so Desormeaux might've sensed that he'd be withdrawn from the World Cup at the time he made the comments. Even if not, I don't blame him for staying home with a potential Derby mount and running in a prep he has a good chance of winning, instead of flying around the world to run 2nd, 3rd, or worse behind Curlin & Co. I'm sure Kent's comments did not imply that Big Brown, after 2 starts against nobody special, is on par with Premium Tap, although Big Brown might be the smarter mount right now.
And please don't suggest that Globalization is a "good" horse just because he ran in the BCJuv. Being entered in a G1 doesn't mean anything if you get crushed. Globalization was recently stomped in a weak AOCn1x field on the inner dirt at AQU at 3/2. Globalization is no world-beater and is certainly not a stakes-caliber talent. Big Brown has beaten nobody, but at least he's done it impressively. I want to see more.

Posted by: C on March 09, 2008 at 12:59 PM

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SA Selections 3/9/08
1. C Dr. Derango
2. 7,4,1,3
3. 6, 3,4,1
4. 4,3,6,5
5. 1,6,2,3(Solis has been strong in sprints on the main and down the hill)
6. 7,5,2, 9
7. 4,1,2,6
8. 1,6,4,5,7
9. 6,2,3
10. 6,5,2,10(wide open race)

Posted by: larryk on March 09, 2008 at 01:55 PM

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StephenTaylor,

Certainly agree with your comments.

Posted by: larryk on March 09, 2008 at 01:56 PM

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Santa Anita Pick 4's

Early Pick 4 -

Race 1- A 5 B 3

Race 2- A 1,7 C 2,8

Race 3- A 3

Race 4- A 3,6 B 2,5 C 4,7

Looks pretty chalky, but could get price in the 2nd or 4th.

Late pick4

race 7- A 2,5 B 1,7 C 3,6,9

race 8- A 1,8,9 C 3,5

race 9 A 8 C 2

race 10- A6,9 B 4,8 C 3,5

I think the 7th shapes up for closers, but they are the morning line favorites so maybe the 1 horse can spring loose. I chuck out the 2 and 7 in the 8th race and try to beat them with firsters 8 and 9 or last out beaten fav the 1. 9th is all Nashoba with scratch of Zenyatta. 10th looks ordinary but have a feeling Formal Rush is going to come out with a big performance one of these days, maybe switch back to Rosario will do the trick.

good luck everyone

Posted by: tbone on March 09, 2008 at 02:42 PM

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Stephen Taylor,

The "company they chose" i.e Cushion Track, isn't the problem either. You haven't seen these problems at HOL now have you? That's because it was installed at HOL exactly as it was supposed to.

There is a big story just under the surface, literally, of this mess we've witnessed with SA's track.

I won't share the whole story now, but as always, follow the money.

Cushion Track is supposed to have sand imported from Europe under the top layer. That's what HOL did, and their track drained just fine.

Wouldn't it be cheaper just to use sand from Irwindale? Yes.
Would there be unforseen problems?

Turns out certain people were wrong on that count.

Posted by: CaliBob on March 09, 2008 at 03:15 PM

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Saturday Notes

Maybe it's just me but I still think Pyro is the second coming of Circular Quay. In my mind he has managed to avoid much of a test - which unfortunately applies to all the other Derby "contenders" as well.

Every ride on Yankee Bravo has left him at the back, comes up on the rail, meets a wall of horses and then gets yanked outside for his run. Probably not the ideal strategy to win. As a whole I was happy with the horse and disappointed in Solis. Change the jockey to Rosario and see what happens.

Indian Blessing is distance limited - that has been apparent since Golden Doc A almost caught her a couple of races ago. There was nothing Gomez could do to keep Proud Spell from passing. To Gomez' credit he didn't beat IB senseless in a futile cause.

If I am Dan Hendricks I would be "Mike Who?" - I wouldn't let him touch another of my horses.

Note to Todd: I think you ought to leave CQ at the Fair Grounds... Just a stretch.

Coast Guard has some issues - I got off of him when he was entered in the Sham and the El Camino Real was pretty much what I expected.

I still think there is a very high possibility that the Derby winner is still under the radar - most of the two year olds that everybody was drooling over have done what they do every year, which is fail to make the jump into the 3 year old ranks - there is a huge graveyard of two year old favorites that die on the vine. Speaking of which, here comes Declan's Moon one more time.

Is it me or is the current jockey set one of the poorest in history. Very few seem to have any sense of timing - something that Bailey, McCarron and Delahoussaye did regularly. And the new generation seem more passive.

Gomez and Bejarano are good riders, but not on the level of the previous generations. Maybe they will be someday.

Do the SoCal synthetic runners have a disadvantage on dirt? Not that I have seen, and the Bruce Levine underground railroad has been pretty effective taking horses from SoCal to Aqueduct.

As I have said before, I think the fillies are becoming better by their multi-generational breeding for distance and are routinely running faster times than the boys. I think Country Star, Eight Belles and Proud Spell could more than hold their own in the Derby. Same with RTR (when the hell is she going to work??), Ginger Punch and others against the "handicap" division.

Just some Sunday morning muses.

Posted by: Steve T on March 09, 2008 at 03:21 PM

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For all of you Big Brown lovers - here is an interesting article from Randy Moss over at ESPN that cites some possible issues with BB:

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/columns/story?columnist=moss_randy&id=3282004

Posted by: Steve T on March 09, 2008 at 03:31 PM

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