July 2009

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Weekend thoughts, Beyers, cappers, etc.

Wow! Whatta weekend of racing. Here are a few random thoughts:

There aren't many other worlds for Curlin to conquer. Preakness winner. Breeders' Cup Classic hero. Champion 3-year-old. Horse of the Year. Dubai World Cup victor. All that's left is the synthetic stuff at Santa Anita for this year's Breeders' Cup Classic. Let's keep our fingers crossed, and hope that the mighty one stays safe, sound, and in great form for the rest of the year...Big Brown certainly looked like a freak, didn't he? He had to work hard from his outside draw to clear the Florida Derby field, and then kept on going despite setting wicked fractions. Some folks are saying that the track was speed-favoring, but I thought it played to all styles. Nitpickers will note that Big Brown was drifting in during the stretch drive, but he had every right to get tired during the final furlong considering he made all the running. It was obviously a breakout performance, and he'll get lots of hype heading into the Derby. Whether he's worth a short price is another story entirely...Benny the Bull firmly stamped himself as the best dirt sprinter in the world by overcoming an unfamiliar straightaway to win the Golden Shaheen, but what about poor Idiot Proof? First he gets run down by Midnight Lute in the BC Sprint, and now he gets nailed late to Benny the Bull. The 2007 Ancient Title winner deserves another big pot...Diamond Stripes took a big class drop to win the Godolphin Mile, but let's give him some credit. He shipped halfway across the world, raced without medication, and was very game rallying along the rail to get it done...The Americans got all the attention on World Cup night, but I thought that Sun Classique was awesome in the Sheema Classic. She stormed to the front two furlongs from home, and held some classy closers (Viva Pataca, Doctor Dino) at bay. Darjina ran a big race in defeat in the Duty Free, and she should have a nice season in Europe...Although half a world away from Curlin both in the literal and figurative sense, it was nice to see Simeon get back to the winner's circle in the final race at Gulfstream on Monday. He dropped down to $10,000 for his first victory since the Group 3 Sandown Classic Trial...in 2002!!! Now nine, the gelding had finished third in the 2002 French Derby...Mind the Minister may be a turf horse to watch. Trained by Jeff Mullins, he stormed through the Santa Anita stretch to win a 'n1x' allowance race on Saturday, and he looked to be about a dozen lengths in front during the gallop-out...Two of the big flops of the weekend were Highest Class and Backseat Rhythm in the Bonnie Miss.

Let's take a look at the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes races:

*Forever Whirl (GP): Electrify (E. Plesa Jr./J. Lezcano) - 109

*Florida Derby (GP): Big Brown (R. Dutrow Jr./K. Desormeaux) - 106
*Carousel (OP): Graeme Six (T. Amoss/E. Razo Jr.) - 102

*Orchid (GP): Hostess (H. Bond/J. Velazquez) - 99
*Next Move (Aqu): Wow Me Free (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia) - 98
*Tokyo City (SA): Niagara Causeway (L. Powell/J. Court) - 97
*Fort Bend County (Hou): Gold Coyote (W. Calhoun/B. Walker Jr.) - 94
*Shirley Jones (GP): Sugar Swirl (B. Lynch/J. Castellano) - 94
*Hillsborough (BM): Unspoken Word (J. Hollendorfer/R. Baze) - 94
*American Beauty (SA): Diamond Diva - GB (J. Cassidy/M. Smith) - 92
*Harrison E. Johnson Memorial (Lrl): Arcata (H. Motion/J. Rose) - 90
*Budweiser-Tondi (Fon): Bevys Best (L. Staroscik/Y. Yaranga) - 90
*Bonnie Miss (GP): Shes All Eltish (M. Wolfson/E. Castro) - 90

*San Miguel (SA): Salute the Sarge (E. Guillot/M. Baze) - 89
*Palm Beach (GP): Sporting Art (C. Clement/J. Castellano) - 89
*Cocodrie (DeD): Bandido (K. Bourgeois/G. Melancon) - 88
*Gardenia (DeD): Coach Mike (T. Richey/D. Saenz) - 87
*Langhorne (Pha): Jet Away Jane (T. Miller/A. Rodriguez) - 86
*Santa Paula (SA): Lethal Heat (B. Abrams/G. Olguin) - 86
*Fairway Fun (TP): Princess Composer (R. McGee/J. Camejo) - 86
*Mt. Cristo Rey (Sun): Frankenbean (E. Burelsmith Jr./M. Perez) - 83
*Manor Downs Distance Cup (Man): Aggies Rule (C. Bronstad/P. Boxie) - 80
*Tempe (TuP): El Mirage (K. Lewis/V. Guerra) - 80

*Rainbow (OP): Explosive Ghazie (S. Roberts/D. Williams) - 77
*ITBOF Sales Graduate (Haw): Denos Keys (M. Cristel/T. Thornton) - 75
*ITBOF Sales Graduate (Haw): Silver Stairs (A. Hansen/T. Riggs) - 72

*Rainbow Miss (OP): Deputy Etbauer (S. Savoie/C. Gonzalez) - 67

*Baxter (Fon): Ittakestwobaby (D. Anderson/D. Leeds) - 52

Now, let's take a peek at the winning Racing Post Ratings for the Dubai World Cup card:

*Dubai World Cup (NAD): Curlin (S. Asmussen/R. Albarado) - 131
*Dubai Sheema Classic (NAD): Sun Classique (Aus) (M. de Kock/K. Shea) - 122
*UAE Derby (NAD): Honour Devil (Arg) (M. de Kock/J. Murtagh) - 121
*Dubai Duty Free (NAD): Jay Peg (SAF) (H. Brown/A. Marcus) - 121
*Dubai Golden Shaheen (NAD): Benny the Bull (R. Dutrow Jr./E. Prado) - 120
*Godolphin Mile (NAD): Diamond Stripes (R. Dutrow Jr./E. Prado) - 115

Here are the past performance for the top-rated Beyer and RPR runners:

Download Curlin/Electrify.PDF

Handicappers of the Week:

First off I'm pumped to see Chelokee back. I was at CD to see him win the Northern Dancer last summer and what a game performance it was, one of the best races on the Stephen Foster card.In the Palm Beach I like both Clement runners with the slight edge going to #8 Sporting Art...I think Bonnie Miss I LOVE #3 She's All Eltish and am expecting her to run huge for Marty.
With the money we've made from the stakes races let's let it ride on #1a Adagio in Race 11.
g or g

Lots of juicy winners here. Chelokee didn't disappoint in his first start of the year. The all-Clement exacta paid $83.20 for $2 in the Palm Beach. She's All Eltish pulled off the upset in the Bonnie Miss, and Richard Dutrow continued his sizzling streak with Adagio's win at Gulfstream. Great handicapping!

My partnership has a horse in tommorrow in the 8th at Hawthorne-#7 Erdiston. 6/1 Morning Line, and our trainer is really high on the horse's chances here. (And it's also interesting to know that Jesse Campbell will be riding, and Jesse very seldom rides at Hawthorne-Joel usually rides Mike's Hawthorne horses, but Jesse is staying on this one and it's his only ride of the day, which to me is a pretty good sign that both father and son are high on the horse's chances)
Stephen Taylor

Congrats to the partnership! Hopefully, you cashed some nice tickets on this $17.20 winner.

I like She's All Eltish (#3) in the Bonnie Miss (GS race 9) tomorrow. I like the steady improvement she's shown, and Marty W. is almost 40% in turf to dirt move
bobbeaux

Race 5, Shirley Jones Handicap --> 1. Sugar Swirl
Race 9, Bonnie Miss Stakes --> 1. Shes All Eltish
Race 12, Forever Whirl Stakes --> 1. Electrify 2. Too Many Toyz
Race 7, Dubai World Cup --> 1. Curlin

She's All Eltish paid a solid $10.80 in the Bonnie Miss. Nice pick as the third choice. Sugar Swirl completed the sweep of the graded stakes for filly and mare sprinters at Gulfstream. Electrify absolutely pounded his foes in the Forever Whirl.

Lets look at the 6th.
The 10 liked the last time, and he should be tough right back again.
3-8
10-7 has been wking well(owners had winner at 33.80 the other day)the 6 and 8 both come out of the same sire, I like both, been waiting for the 8 to get on the trf, he's been scratched couple times and ran very well last out, think he's sitting on a big one.
5-5
6-I'm an unusual heat fan too, have been for awhile.
I really liked 4 last out, didn't get a good start. However, Solis stays and this horse made up a ton of ground.
Value Pick 4,
larry k

Sanquine was a game winner of the sixth at Santa Anita on Saturday. Devoted Magic paid $7.40 in the third. The 7-8 exacta returned $52.20 for $2 in the tenth. Almacita paid $6.80 in the fifth at Santa Anita on Monday. Unusual Spirit paid $22.40 as the value pick in the sixth.

NAD4 GoldShaheen (6f 2000K 3up): #10 Benny The Bull (ML:5/1) -> after Diamond Stripes victory, do you think Dutrow is having 2nd thoughts about missing these races? Prado will need to stay closer to the pace if he want to win (WP#1)NAD7 Classic (10f 6000K 3up): #12 Curlin (ML:3/5) should win...I have one stakes pick for a little later today:
SA8 SntPaula-G3 (6.5f 3yo fil): #2 Lethal Heat (ML:6/1) -> 1st-cushion and 1st-stakes after two downhill wins this month, last 10 days ago. She will need a fast pace to close into, meaning someone needs to go with ML-fav #3 Lovely Isle, especially now that Crown of Diamonds was scratched. Will also include #5 P.S.U.Grad (ML:5/1) in my exotics - she's had a couple of nice 6f HOL works since her last 8f win. (WP#2; EXBX #2,5)
Alan

Benny the Bull keeps improving, and so does Lethal Heat ($16.00 to win, $53.70 exacta for $1). Nice analysis on the Santa Paula.

I'll be the first to take Big Brown and hope Kent D doesn't screw up. As for those that say he doesn't have the foundation or experience to make this leap I say look at Curlin last year. He toasted the Arkansas Derby field in his third start (albeit not from the 12 post). So he wins by 5 insteads of ten...Not going against CURLIN here. Asmussen has done all the right things to get this horse ready for this race.
cayman01

Dan, I really like your choices for the Florida Derby, since they are same two I've picked. Big Brown in a romp...
predict

I like BB, Fierce Wind, Tomcito over and will play those underneath as well, along with Elysium Fields, Hey Byrn and Smooth Air.
vicstu

To me Curlin will smoke-em in the Classic, also like Benny The Bull in the Golden Shaheen
johnnyz

Curlin-don't feel I need to explain this pick, as he's many others' pick as well
Chase

Dubai World Cup---I see the #4KOCAB being a big ticket maker here--I'll go CURLIN (#12) 1st and 2nd with PREMIUM/VERMILLION/JALIL/ASIATIC BOY
PEM

Keep this in mind -- BIG BROWN outworked DIAMOND STRIPES before that one left to Dubai... and just won the Mile race in Dubai. Look out for Big Brown!!
CaliBob

No surprises here. Big Brown and Curlin both wowed us with their huge wins. Hopefully, Vicstu nailed the trifecta in the Florida Derby.

"Dan,Ric Flair is a better bet to lose at Wrestlemania and retire then War Pass is to win on Sunday. My predicition is Shawn Michaels is the one to beat him.Woooooo!!!
Lenny
Posted by: aparagon4u on February 22, 2008 at 08:33 PM
Dan,
Do I get the handicapper of the week award for making the above prediction over a month before it occurred? Can't say my race selections did much but at least I was right about something this weekend.
Lenny

I'm ashamed to admit that, for the first time in many, many years, I missed WrestleMania. Yes, the HBK did defeat The Nature Boy, and has "retired" him from wrestling...oops, sports entertainment. Of course, does anyone really retire from that industry (Mick Foley, Terry Funk, etc.)?
If this is the last we've seen of the 16-time world champion, then let's give a tip of the cap to the "limousine-riding, jet-flying, kiss-stealin', wheelin-dealin, son-of-a-gun." Woooooooooooooooo.

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Beyer Bias Alert... Interested in seeing how the Beyer Boys assess today's mile dirt races at SA. Race 2 was a 16k claimer with a purse of $22k won by Quasimodo carrying 121 lbs run in fractions of 23.3/47.2/111.2/123.3/136.0
Race 7 was an allowance with a purse of $68k won by Fly Dorcego carrying 118 lbs run in fractions of 24.4/49.1/113.4/125.1/136.3
This field included multiple graded stakes winners and performers and was to be the return race for Brother Derek. Can't wait to see how these two races are graded by Beyer. Does the cheap claimer get a boosted Beyer number so they can assign an artificially high number to the "stakes" caliber runners that ran 3 ticks slower while carrying less weight? Just curious...Imagine if Brother Derek ran and won in those fractions..) To me, the claimer was run in a reasonable time for horses of that caliber. What the heck happened in the feature race? These horses regularly work faster than the race was run in (over this same SA surface!) Chalk another racing "advancement " to the wonders of artificial surfaces. Is it really safer for the horses that have trained and run on the California circuit this year? They start out with a quagmire-like Delmar surface, go to a reasonably consistent surface at Hollywood,then go to world record breaking & scraped surface to start Santa Anita and now back to an apparently deeper, slower surface. Quite the 6 month circuit! Now the good ones get to travel around the country chasing stakes run on real dirt again. Cross training at its best..
dk

Race 2 received an 84 Beyer. Race 9 earned an 89 Beyer. I'm assuming that the figuremaker projected an 89 based on the slow pace of the ninth race.

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Dan, wanted to ask your opinion on these two horses: Elusive Schemes and Forest Echoes. Think either one is headed down to the maiden claiming ranks anytime soon??
Thanks for your time :)
Sam

I'm not an Elusive Schemes fan. He seems to get hot in the paddock and post parade, and is often too eager in the early stages of his races. Perhaps he needs the ultimate equipment change. He hasn't hit the board in his career so perhaps a drop in class is coming.
I think they're going to give Forest Echoes a few more chances. He looks better on paper than he really is as a racehorse. Some good numbers, but he lacks the will to win right now. Eoin Harty has always liked him, though.

From Jay Privman's article on March 14:

Forest Echoes cost $900,000 when he was purchased as a 2-year-old in training one year ago.
"He's a smashing-looking horse," said his trainer, Eoin Harty.
Trouble is, his races haven't been quite so pretty. Not that they have been bad, but five races into his career, Forest Echoes is still looking for that elusive first win.
He will be among the top contenders on Sunday in the eighth race, a six-furlong sprint for 3-year-old maidens. Forest Echoes has finished third in two similar spots this meet.
"I thought he had plenty of talent, but he hasn't shown it," Harty said. "I keep expecting him to walk through the front door, but he hasn't done it."

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Anyone have a link to the updated graded earnings?
James Mc

Here they are:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/earnings.html

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TO ALL..
Could someone please tell me how could I find out or if someone knows the Brisnet, number, the beyer number and the ragozin sheets number for Tomcito's race...and any opinions on how those stack up to other sin teh field, ex BB..??
sripa1212

First of all, congrats on Tomcito's nice effort in the Florida Derby. Tomcito earned an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. The winner, Big Brown, received a 106.

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I'm fairly certain I am remember Boundary's numbers correctly, I'm no pedigree expert that's for sure, so if I got that wrong my bad. Maybe if Dan has time he can look up Boundary's numbers for us and chime in.
Peace
Jason G

Please link to the March 12 blog as we looked at some of Boundary's route-winning progeny:

http://community.drf.com/formblog/2008/03/my-juliet-beyer.html

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Dan, will you be posting anything reagrding the 2 yr old races starting this friday at Keeneland?
g or g

I'll be posting the usual "Keeneland Babies" column on the DRF Plus portion of the site. I'll break down the pedigrees, workouts, and connections for every horse in the race. Last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner made his career debut on Opening Day at Keeneland. From last year's Opening Day Keeneland Babies:

8. Nownownow (Whywhywhy – Here and Now, by Exit to Nowhere)
-Trainer: Patrick Biancone
-Foaled April 20, 2005 in Kentucky
-out (Keeneland November 2005), out (Keeneland April 2007)
- 1/2 to French turf stakes-winner Marche de Paix
- sire a Grade 1 winner at two (9-3-1-1, $315,015, 3-5 at two)
- this is sire’s first starter
- dam a turf route winner in France (12-1-0-0)
- dam has 6 foals of racing age, 5 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 1 juvenile debut winner
- second dam was stakes-placed on turf (18-4-1-1, $41,767. 3 turf wins)
- trainer is 17-71 (24%, $1.82 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (2-12, 17%,
$0.92 ROI at Keeneland)
- 3/30 work matches up with barn’s 4yo filly Vague (88 Beyer top, 106+ Timeform), 3yo filly Stadore (88 Beyer top on grass, 94 Timeform), 3yo filly Countess Scala (74 Beyer top), and 4yo filly Miss Norman (82 Beyer top)

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Dan,
I wonder if this 3 year old class is very good. I know its early and I'm not a speed figure guy at all but this bunch doesn't impress me much. I think Big Brown would be on the second team last season and wouldn't be better than the 3rd best horse against the 06 bunch. That is to say he's the FREAK everyone seems to think he is. I do not! I think he looks great against a bunch of very average 3 year olds. I feel a right War Pass would cook him and himself while doing it and a Giacamo type derby may be in the making. I know there is still racing to be done but what are your thoughts?
...I know its Derby time, but I want to talk about Curlin, I read he wasn't going to be rated any higher after humiliating that World Cup field. I feel the racing media's dislike for his connections are taking away from how good this horse may just be. I mean he was 6-5 not to win the World Cup but to break the world cup record and with a faster pace would have surely done it. I mean Invasor, Bernardini, Discreet Cat, Street Sense, etc. all these recent horses received way more than there due, and this 4 year old superstar just doesn't seem to be getting any love from the media. Why Not?
Hillbilly

If you look at speed figures as an indicator of quality, then this year's sophomore crop doesn't match up to those of years past. Here is the list of three-year-olds with BSF's of 100 or more in 2008:

Bob Black Jack (109)
Big Brown (106,104)
Georgie Boy (103 - hurt)
Gattopardo (103)
Gayego (102)
Jockey Ridge (101)
Eight Belles (100 - filly)
Winsome Charm (100)

Bob Black Jack and Gayego still must prove they can go a distance of ground. Georgie Boy is out. Eight Belles is a filly. Winsome Charm and Jockey Ridge are probably off the Derby trail while Gattopardo is more likely for a race like the Preakness.

Of course, speed figures are just part of the puzzle. Is this crop any good? The answer is that there is no answer...yet. Only time will tell where this crop rates.

As for Curlin, I don't think the media is disrespecting him. We're not going to call him Secretariat just, but there's no doubt that he is the best horse on the planet, and one of the best horses we've seen in a long, long time.

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Hi Dan,
Do you know whatever happened to Fernando Jara?
Jeannie

Please refer to the March 25 FormBlog link for information on Jara:

http://community.drf.com/formblog/2008/03/weekend-thoug-2.html

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We'll take a look at a past champion in tomorrow's blog along with some thoughts on pedigree, and unsoundness in the breed.

Take care,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman on April 1, 2008 | Permalink

Keywords:

Comments

Dan, please tell me what I'm missing.
She's All Eltish runs 1:51.80 and Big Brown gets 1:48.16 35 minutes later. That's a difference of 3.64 seconds. Using the rule of thumb that one second equals 5 lengths, BB ran about 18 lengths faster than SAE. I believe Beyer figs are approx 1 and 1/2 points per length in routes, I've got a spread of about 27 points between BB and SAE. Yet BB gets a 106 and SAE a 90, a difference of only 16 points. I've read all 3 of Andy Beyer's books and I don't remeber any mention of adjusting speed figs for pace - only the raw time adjusted for the speed of the surface. What gives?

Posted by: Tommy Triple on April 01, 2008 at 03:42 PM

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Dan,

I have a question pertaining to your comment below.

Race 2 received an 84 Beyer. Race 9 earned an 89 Beyer. I'm assuming that the figuremaker projected an 89 based on the slow pace of the ninth race.

This contradicts a direct question I asked Andrew Beyer during a Q&A session at the Washington Post several years ago. My question pertained to his Beyer numbers and if pace was taken into account in determining the number. His answer was that final time was the only deciding factor in the numbers. He did state that the variant could possibly change during the course of the card due to changing track conditions. Since the race in question was on the rubber the track variant should not have been adjusted.

Am I missing something here?

Posted by: PhilFromBrooklyn on April 01, 2008 at 03:54 PM

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In addition to the Bonnie Miss and Florida Derby, the 12th race at GP was run at 1 1/8 miles. The winning time was 1:47.85. What was Electrify's BSF for that race?

Thanks,

Posted by: e_s on April 01, 2008 at 04:11 PM

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RE: Tommy Triple & PhilFromBrooklyn's questions

First of all, I promise that I didn't post under those names to raise this issue.

It seems that subjective adjustments (pace, class, etc.) have been increasingly factoring into BSF figure assignments (most notably over synthetic surfaces). At GP on Saturday, was the track uniquely slow for the running of the Bonnie Miss (was this the only race all day with no water put down on the track before the race)??

The Beyer people seem more concerned these days about deriving final figures that make sense relative to past performances and class with a lower regard for final time which means that the relative variant between races is bouncing all over the place.

What the heck has happened here? Is it a function of the mess that synthetic surfaces have made to the meaningfulness of their figures and thus a reaction to take subjective corrective action that has shifted to practice at all tracks?

What's next, ground loss and weight adjustments to the figures?? All I need is for CONSISTENT APPLICATION OF FINAL TIME SPEED WITH A CAUTIOUS AND REASONABLE APPROACH WITH CHANGING INTRA-DAY VARIANTS, I'll do the rest of the handicapping!

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on April 01, 2008 at 05:14 PM

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Dan thanks for link to Boundary comments, it was a double score for me. I had missed that entire thread so I didn't see the comments from you on Donraille Court right below the Boundary comments that day.

Thanks a lot for that, I will tell my father in law to look into that one as well, it's in the price range.

Still no decisions on that end yet, but last I heard he was still leaning towards Noble Causeway. I'm trying to talk him out of that actually, I think he's going to be a bust. He wasn't that good of a racehorse, and I don't like the way he looks either.

I'll keep you posted and thanks everyone for their great input on the stallions, it has been most helpful.

Peace

Posted by: Jason G on April 01, 2008 at 05:38 PM

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drug free racing in dubai?? you've got to be kidding. how many medals did marion jones win without ever being caught on olympic testing? from what i've read EPO can only be detected for 2-3 days after administration and the drug effects last for 3-4 weeks. that's only one drug. the vets train these horses today. take out a racing manual from the eighties. the top trainer list looks like a who's who of the hall of fame. these guys hit around 17-18%. they'd look like bums to the magicians today.

Posted by: b christen on April 01, 2008 at 05:52 PM

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Tommy Triple/PhilFromBrooklyn/Dan/all FORMBloggers,

I had promised myself I wouldn't get involved in a "Beyer Speed Figures are not objective" argument again, but the discrepancy in BSFs at GP this past Saturday are really so outlandish that once again I have to declare: "The Emperor Has No Clothes"!!

Compare these two different GP day's Beyers:
Same Track = GP
Same Track Condition = fast
Same Distance = 9f
Consecutive Races Run on the Card

Feb2
GP8 9f 3yomsw time=1:51.30 BSF=80
GP9 9f G1-Donn time=1:48.35 BSF=107
2.95sec difference = 27 BSF (more like you'd expect, right Tommy...)

Mar29
GP9 9f G2-BnMs time=1:51.80 BSF=90
GP10 9f G1-FlaD time=1:48.16 BSF=106
3.64sec difference = 16 BSF

HOW CAN THIS BE???

This is your (DRF) description of Beyers:
http://www.drf.com/products/beyers/beyers.html
Beyers are supposed to be a measure of performance based on THE FINAL TIME - the pace doesn't matter in the figure (DMR and KEE-poly horses...TOUGH LUCK GUYS!!) They are not Timeform/Racing Post based - the fact that GP9 Mar29 was a G2-stakes and GP8 Feb2 shouldn't make a difference - a horse runs a certain time whether you like it or not. There is no way the variant could have suddenly changed from one race to the next to account for SO MUCH LESS of a difference on one day vs. another.

CAN ANYONE OUT THERE (except not you C...I know what you are thinking already! :-) ) TELL ME HOW THIS HAPPENED??
Dan??
Steve Crist??
Andy Beyer??
Steve Davidowitz??
Anyone????

Posted by: Alan on April 01, 2008 at 06:13 PM

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e-s
Dan has the Beyer for Electrify posted on top of his list at 109.
Mike

Posted by: Mike Romeo on April 01, 2008 at 06:17 PM

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It’s been awhile since I ranked my Derby Top 10 so I thought I’d throw it out there since we’re only about a month away.

1. Pyro – The War Pass debacle down in Tampa along with the emergence of Big Brown at least makes it look like he’ll have some pace to run at. Main concern has to be traffic.
2. Dennis of Cork – Continues to be flattered by form of other horses running behind him. 15-1 in the futures pool seems somewhat inviting.
3. Big Brown – Impressive win, but looked tired to me at the end instead of green and questions as to exactly who he defeated.
4. War Pass – Quite possible last race was a throw out. Can’t completely toss him based on one race. He may need the lead, but once he gets one, he’s always gone.
5. Colonel John – Seems to be the best of the West Coast contingent still standing with loss of Georgie Boy and Crown of Thorns. Still, I worry about never having run on dirt and how the form will transfer.
6. El Gato Malo – He’s just a length behind CJ, but again, does that cushion ride form transfer to dirt?
7. Atoned – Hard to believe that Todd Pletcher isn’t going to be involved somehow and he’s due for a little luck at Churchill sometime isn’t he?
8. County Star – Bejarano thought she was good enough after the Hollywood Starlet. We’ll see if the other connections feel the same way soon enough. BTW: Thanks to the folks at Santa Anita for letting Rosangela go off at 6 to 1 last Thursday in the 1st. That paid for my KC golfing trip and a lot of BBQ at Arthur Bryant’s.
9. Adriano – Hard to say if Motion sends this one, but the earnings are there and the horse threw in a clunker after washing out in the paddock. Was that completely the dirt’s fault?
10. Smooth Air – Biggest mistake in this game is playing with your heart instead of your head. However, seeing Mr. Stutts finally get to see a lifetime dream come true is enough to crack the façade of any hard-hearted handicapper.

Honorable Mentions:
Tomocito – Not sure about earnings and now health. Best of luck to the connections.
Eight Belles – Larry Jones knows a thing about horses as we’re coming to find out.
Court Vision – Lots to like except the speed figures are never there.
Cool Coal Man – Forgotten horse in Zito barn. Could surprise.
Big Truck – Horse shows a lot of heart. Always gives a good effort.

Hope everyone is doing well.

Posted by: Danny B on April 01, 2008 at 06:25 PM

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Quote from Elliott Walden and Eion Harty: Eion, knows he has something in Col.John: He's been my love from day one and still is:
It's not a super concern like it's a negative," Walden said, referring to the switch to dirt for the Kentucky Derby. "It's something that we're all aware of as well as the press. Eoin's plan after this race is to get a good work into him at Churchill."

As a former assistant to Bob Baffert when he won the Kentucky Derby with Silver Charm and Real Quiet, Harty has an idea of what a Derby horse is. He believes Colonel John fits the profile.

"Ability-wise he reminds me of all of them," Harty said Tuesday. "I'm not predicting I'm going to win the Kentucky Derby, but I know from being around those horses that my horse will be competitive on Derby Day."

Posted by: larryk on April 01, 2008 at 06:27 PM

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"Diamond Stripes...raced without medication"

That's rich.

Next time, for the sake of accuracy and context, you might want to say that [whichever Dutrow horse] raced without medication which can be discerned by current testing technology...

Posted by: Tinky on April 01, 2008 at 06:58 PM

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Alan,

Clearly you and I are on the same page on this BSF issue. The GP figures for Saturday make relative sense to me except for the Bonnie Miss.

Theoretically, the track maintenance could have changed and slowed the track down for this one race but this seems highly unlikely. Rather, it looks like they made the decision to go ahead and give the visually impressive runaway winner a figure that matched up with her lifetime bests.

I would have concluded that the reality is that none of those fillies has ever gone 1 1/8 miles and maybe they're just not that good at this distance. I'd give the winner a 77 BSF...

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on April 01, 2008 at 07:10 PM

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CORRECTION to my earlier post:

She's All Eltish should have gotten a 74 BSF. I believe that at 1 1/8 miles, each length is 1.8 Beyer points so the relative comparison with Big Brown is 18 lengths x 1.8 = 32 points less than 106. I'm comfortable with the other figures on the day and so I'm comfortable believing this relative comparison...

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on April 01, 2008 at 07:28 PM

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Dan,

Have you heard anything about Vaulcluse, the 3YO filly who won the Suncoast at Tampa awhile back? She was 23-1 in Pool Two of the Oaks Future wager, but there hasn't been a word about her since, and she is not a wagering interest in Pool Three.

Posted by: Mike on April 01, 2008 at 07:40 PM

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Hi Dan: I'm very happy to have stumbled upon this blog. I was contemplating sending my first DRF "letter to the editor" asking about the dearth of letters in the Sunday edition, and wondering why more letters are not printed online. I appreciate the vibrant nature of this blog... it is comforting to witness other spirited fans of this great sport.

I seek guidance on a couple of topics:

1. Similar to the comment lines for claims and trainer changes in the PP's, is there any chance DRF can add a notation when a horse is gelded? This is the exact type of data that DRF should provide.

2. Is there any online platform that offers live streaming and is compatible with Apple computers? Youbet is supposed to work with the Firefox browser... the site functions, but the streaming does not. Xpressbet's FAQ states that it "does not work as efficiently with a MAC". Really could use some suggestions here (short of "install Windows on your Mac").

As a fan, I must say I'm looking forward to the ladies this year... hoping that Country Star and Zenyatta stay sound, because they have impressed.

Also, wondering if anyone knows whether or not Agnes Gold's dance card is full in Fla (and if so, the quality of mares) because I really want to see some grandchildren of Sunday Silence compete in the states.

Best of luck to y'all.

Posted by: rr on April 01, 2008 at 08:55 PM

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Hi Dan give me your thoughts on Harlem Rocker .

Posted by: asidero on April 01, 2008 at 09:02 PM

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Blue Horseshoe,
The problem with Beyers are that much like the "Wizard of Oz", we (the horseplayer) are not allowed to know what is actually going on behind the curtain! We are just expected to trust the numbers - after all, the "experts" are faithfully calculating them using purely objective criteria. Track maintenance to speed up GP just prior to the Florida Derby - is that going to be the excuse this time?? I want the raw speed figures for every dirt race on the GP Saturday card as well as the track variant. If there was a sudden change between races 9 and 10, show me video evidence of when/how this occurred. Until then, "The Beyer Emperor Has No Clothes"!

rr,
Welcome to Formblog!!
I'll second the gelding suggestion - and have before! BTW, if you have a spare 10,000+ hours to read this past year's posts, you'll see that lack of access to appropriate handicapping information is a frequent complaint around here! I think Twinspires streaming video works with Flip4mac - I can try to access the site on my youngest daughter's iBook if you need me to check...

Posted by: Alan on April 01, 2008 at 09:34 PM

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Jason,

Due to family and work concerns, I've been unable to get very far with the mare report. I'm very sorry. However, upon reading your post tonight, may I suggest a few other matches that might fit well with your mare besides Doneraile Court (great suggestion, Dan) and Nobel Causeway - who I liked initially.

Check out Cat Thief. The resulting foal would be 4m x 4m NORTHERN DANCER through Storm Bird on the sire's side and Dixieland Band on the dam's side; 4m x 5m to RAISE A NATIVE - through Alydar on the sire's side and Mr. Prospector on the Dam's side and 5m x 5f to BOLD RULER - through Secretariat on the sire's side and Laughter on the dam's side.

Simon Pure (which receives an A++ rating from both Werk and Truenicks) the inbreeding is 4f x 4m MR. PROSPECTOR through Silver Valley on the sire's side and Forty Niner on the dam side; 5m x 4m to NORTHERN DANCER through Vice Regent on the sire's side and Dixieland Band on the dam's side; 4f x 5f to TOM ROLFE through Fire Water on the sire's side and File on the dam's side; and 5m x 5m to TURN-TO, through Best Turn on the sire's side and Cyane on the dam's side.

Grindstone, 5m x 5f to Mr. Prospector, through FAPPIANO on the sire's side and Forty Niner on the dam's side, and 5m x 5m to Turn-To, through Sir Gaylord on the sire's side and Cyane on the dam's side.

I think I can look further into this in a day or so, just wanted to give you some other stallions to consider.

Posted by: laura on April 01, 2008 at 10:01 PM

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Alan:

So, what do Prussian and Big Brown have in common, besides being riden by Kent D.?

They were both bred by one of the most unique breeding farms to come along in sometime:Monticule....
There was an article last year in Bloodhorse re:to there farm. I believe the owner focuses on comp. tech. with pairings? Or is it biomechanics? I do know it is unique.

How bout that a son of Danzig(one of the last)and a grandson of Danzig. And they had a top seller that the Shiek bought. Full of unique and somewhat helpful info.

Good to see back in the fold here

Posted by: larryk on April 01, 2008 at 10:01 PM

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Beyer Speed Figure Conspiracy:

People, the speed figures are a guide. They tell you what they are based on. It's your job to weigh them according to your handicapping style, and make other relevant judgements on the race at hand to arrive at how you might bet this particular race.

This just in...mathematics will never explain this game. Quit using it to justify your losing streak.

Posted by: Super D on April 01, 2008 at 10:11 PM

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RR-
Xpressbet's video works ok on my Mac (10.4) using Firefox browser, but not Safari. Actually, the whole site (results, betting log, etc) works better using Firefox.

Posted by: nancyb on April 01, 2008 at 10:16 PM

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Laura,

Interesting comments on the stallions...Cat Thief was a tough one. Durable and showed up....

Posted by: larryk on April 01, 2008 at 10:18 PM

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Dan,
I'm glad you mentioned Sun Classique's win, but I wish you would have further emphasized that she's a FILLY who beat MALES at the top level... something we might not see again in the Breeders Cup.

Alan,
I sensed a little Michael Corleone "just when I thought I was out..." in you. The ever-changing variants they come up with always make me laugh. How do they know that the actual surface changed from one race to another? I'm a little surprised that figures --ANY figures-- have remained so popular over the years. Before that, people used their eyes.
Eyes, not numbers, are all that's needed to know Big Brown, for example, was dominant on Saturday. Honestly, I don't really care about the final times of the other 9 furlong races. I don't even care about HIS final time that much.

jlove,
Thanks, I'll take "realist" any time. I've been called worse.

Posted by: C on April 01, 2008 at 10:37 PM

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rr,
Welcome to the Blue Boxers!

According to a story by Dave Goldman on March 28th, "Agnes Gold is a Japanese-bred, Grade 2 stakes-winning son of Sunday Silence from the family of Fappiano. While technically a Florida first-season sire, Agnes Gold left three crops in his homeland. The first of those crops raced last year and did well, with 11 known winners, turf and dirt, from more than 20 starters.

"Due to a USDA quarantine mix-up, we had to delay AG's covering of mares until last April," said Angela Palacios, stallion coordinator for Lambholm South. "We were able to get 15 mares covered, and from these covers, there are now two foals on the ground, a colt and a filly. The owners like them, and as the word spreads, we should do all right here, as we already have more booked than AG covered in 2007."

Here's the link to the rest of the story: http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=93286&subs=0&arc=1

Here's a link to a photo of his first foal: http://www.lambholmsouth.com/images/lambholmsouth.com/default1.aspx?contentName=News&news=1&newsId=2212

Just briefly looking at Agnes Gold's pedigree, I like that he's inbred to Almahmoud through Halo on his sire's side and Northern Dancer on his Dam's side. He also carries strains of Hyperion through Edelweiss and Lady Angela.

Posted by: laura on April 01, 2008 at 10:39 PM

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I am going to steer clear of the BSF debate this time, other than to say it deserves to have been brought back up, and Alan and Blue Horseshoe both raised some good points (IMO).

Danny B,

I would have to disagree that Big Brown looked tired at the end of his FD romp, seeing as he was under a hand ride and KD kept having to tug on his left bridle to keep the horse in focus at the end. Plus, KD said to Bailey the horse was not even breathing hard after the race.

But assuming you are right, and BB was a bit tired...so what? Considering the torrid frctions he set, what horse in his place would not have been tired? BB ran the field off of their feet, and the name of this game is pace makes the race.

And if you have concerns over exactly what Big Brown has beaten, what has Denis of Cork beat? I understand he has got a few good form references, but that race set up perfectly for DOC. I guess my point is that none of these horses have beaten very much. But, go back and look at Barbaro overcoming the 10 post and then having to go all out to beat the miler Sharp Humor. When you consider the configuration of the track and what the horse overcame, Big Brown ran a huge race.

But by all means, I respect your opinion and hope it does not change between now and Derby day. BTW, its too bad Country Star isn't racing against the boys in the SA Derby. But, then again, maybe the connections do not give her a shot against the big boys. Some fillies get spooked when they get bounced around by the males. Everyone has talked about how great she is, at least she could get a chance to show it.

Posted by: svhill on April 01, 2008 at 11:03 PM

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Not to be a kiss a** but the Beyer Figures seem to work alright. If everyone has such a problem with them, why not watch the race yourself, look at the times, and develop your own speed figure ratings---that's why we have them because of the work Mr. Beyer did and does. If anyone wants to research exactly what goes into the numbers, he wrote a whole book about how he came up with them---you don;t even have to pay for the book---they have them in library.

Posted by: matt smith on April 01, 2008 at 11:43 PM

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Hello Dan and all ....

I just breezed 12 furlongs in 18 minutes ... the blinkers were on (I wear glasses) and I was under wraps the last furlong. Recovering from a herniated disc, it feels good to move around again. Now if I could only get Curlin to be my training partner! My past performances show I'm able to compete at long distances (somehow finished the LA Marathon 18 years ago!), but I probably was more of an accomplished sprinter in my peak (lots of basketball running). I should be an overlay in my first race of the long layoff.

I"d like to chime in on the GP post position discussion. I'd like to purpose that everyone was right in his/her arguments concerning the outside. From visually watching the race, starting in the 12 post (or rather 10, 11, or 12 --- I'm more like Alan in thinking of the posts as 'groupings') looks to be a tremendous disadvantage. The caveat here is if you possess major talent like Barbaro or Big Brown (or perhaps a War Pass or a Hard Spun), you can use your gate speed to get out and over as quickly as possible (using your natural speed and not an extra nudge from the jockey) to negate that positional disadvantage. Mr. Brown was certainly 3 or 4 wide in the first turn, but the keys here are 1) he didn't have to be used extra to get there, 2) he was right with the leading pack (instead of like 4 wide 8 lengths back), and 3) that's not any farther wide than he would have been from the 12 post of most tracks. The 11 certainly at least had the same game plan as he was getting "out and over" as quickly as possible which certainly didn't hurt Big Brown's quest to do the same. In the same vane, it looks like lesser horses would get crushed from those outside posts as if your horse has the same gate speed as 7 or 8 horses to your inside (or worse), you or going to be hung out to dry at that turn You won't be getting "over" which just increases the total race distance and to make matters worse those inside horses are also going to be ahead of you several lengths by the time the first turn ends. Extra distance running + starting several lengths behind other horses = bias. I'm confident that five years from now, the horses winning from out there will be a short list of Big Browns and Barbaros (who very well could be two of the very top horses over the last couple of years) and the winning percentage will still be low comparing 10-12 posts to 1-3. Yes, I'm familiar with statistics and sample sizes also. I'll still say the 1-3 posts will have a winning percentage at least three times as high as posts 10-12 in the future.

So I'd like to purpose that 'everyone' was right. Yes there is a bias and yes Big Brown possesses enough speed and talent to get "out and over" which put him in the same position he would have been at most other tracks at the first turn.

Sripa1212,
One more vote to send Mr. Tomcito to the Derby. If you factor everything that was against him (flu, first start off a long layoff, first start in a new country, first start on a completely different track), he more than proved he belongs. What makes the Derby great is the many story lines that accompany the 20 horses and connections. The Peruvian flavor of Tomcito is dearly needed. We can have Lomo Saltado with our Mint Juleps! I'm even calling my cat Pebbles, Pebblecito (I just worked her 3 furlongs as well!). Hell f'n I'mawildandcrzyguy finished 4th in the Derby last year! Last half way through the race, and finishes in 4th. That smell like the Mr. T(omcito) formula this year. Everyone spends the winter and spring saying 'hey do you think that horse can get 10 panels? What's his pedigree say?". The Peruvian Nightmare, Tomcito, jogs 10 panels backwards before he goes to bed!

I'm gonna work my tail off the last few weeks here, and I'm gonna post you guys and gals a winning Pick 4 before the Santa Anita meet is over ....

Curlin one of the best ever? Heck, last year he couldn't even beat a retired girl! Tip of the cap to Ms. Riches and here's to Curlin winning every big race the next 3 years ...

Afi

Posted by: Afi on April 02, 2008 at 12:17 AM

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larryk...

What else do Prussian, and Big Brown have in common?
..Turf to dirt
an angle I have watched since last year (Horse watch, thanks DRF)

These were my 2 Derby trail picks "IF" they came off the turf (along with certain pedigree#'s that I look for)
of course I didn't put any of my thoughts out there, I'm not one to do that....
but I have MANY NOTES from our prestigious bloggers...

...Calvin, a thanks to your notes re: Prussian, many months ago.

..another horse on my watch:

Salute the Sarge...
1st in the San Miguel stakes, to a 2nd Leonides....remember them?
With enough graded stakes earnings (258K Downey profile 12th in standings) for the Kentucky derby, and with one more prep in the Lexington,
Salute the Sarge could be a contender....

Dan

I would love to know your anaylsis on Salute the Sarge. (unfortunately, Georgie Boy is out) but how about this other West Coast prospect?

Thanks
SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on April 02, 2008 at 12:51 AM

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rr..

Welcome to Dans Form blog , I personally think you have hit the motherlode!
.................

Laura

Thanks for the links!
Nice to hear from you, I always like your take on the horses.

..................

Katieattherail

I know you are out there somewhere....
So I'm just checking in... Hello from the other "Girl in Green"

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on April 02, 2008 at 01:05 AM

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Alan, have to chime in on this BSF dilemma. I am with you, as in the last year we have had enough discussion on BSF, and BSF discrepancy's.

Actual finish time is way more important to me than a published spd. figure that is subject to a formula that is hidden under all the gold in Fort Knox.

I always look at the published BSF,s in all stakes races. I then try to compare fractions, and final times, with some variations thrown in. Shouldn't need to post the variations, but will- number of entrys, did a closer or pace setter win, was the horse just a step better in class, who was the Jockey, who was the trainer? ETC. (%)!

I like A. Beyer, at least should say I like reading what he writes. As far a BSF's go, I could care less. I still put some merit in increasing and sucessive BSF's. I would far rather have raw spd. figs., and a replay.
Sorry about the rant, but BSF's is about as important to me as my ex-wife, who I left 15 yrs. ago!

Danny B., glad to see your top Derby contenders tonight. They are not much different than mine, although I haven't ranked this week. That is normally a Wed. deal for me. This is tough year to get a grip on? Don't you think?

Calvin, thanks for the link on Count Fleet. While I live for the Derby, and the T.C., I am a historian at heart. While it is great to live in the present, it also really enjoyable to re-live the past.

sripa1212, first of all thanks for all the input. It is really nice to get info, shell we say we say from the horse's mouth. My personal observation of Tomcito was very positive. His first race in th U.S., 1st in 4/5 months, on a speed favoring track, and not to mention that he may have been somewhat ill. I will post my top Derby 12 tomorrow night, and Tomcito will be in there, just not sure where at this time. Will leave you with this.
This years Derby contenders is a contentious bunch. While Big Brown was really dominant last weekend, I'm not sold on him. Just so many unanswered questions. The next few weeks should tell all of us alot. My contention is that I may be as confused then as I am now.

Dan, as always thanks for all your hard work. I love your past champion post.
An idea for a future one; how about Swoon's Son? Was on heck of an competitor, won alot of races and, was a decent sire, if memory serves me correctly was the sire of 3 yr old champion, Chris Evert.

Can't close without mentioning the 9th @ Keeneland Friday, opening day. In the 9th, Tran. S G-3 S. 1 1/16 T.
A crush of mine Prussian, one of Danzigs last is running. I still think he should have at least been given a chance on dirt. Also, Riley Tucker is entered in this one. Good luck to Riley, and Justin.

Also good luck to all tomorrow!!

Posted by: johnnyz on April 02, 2008 at 01:07 AM

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Wow, you guys are great!

Laura - Thanks for the update on Agnes Gold and link to the photo of the first foal. If this sire is successful here, it would be scary if they sent over one of the better sons of Sunday Silence.

Alan - I can only imagine the hours spent on this blog spewing frustration over lack of info. FYI - on his radio show, Roger Stein advocates heightened fines and/or mandatory scratches for trainers/owners who fail to report new geldings at the time of entry. I'm not an owner (yet), but this seems like a policy change that is overdue. Wonder if any owners/trainers here disagree. How hard is it to comply? The connections certainly are aware of a change in sack, as that must be a heavy decision to make.

NancyB - Thanks for the tip... I'll try Xpressbet with Firefox. At the very least, they'll pay me to experiment with their site. To anyone who's interested, Xpressbet is giving $100 wagering credit (after you've wagered $100) to new account registrants between now and May 3rd. The way Magna's been going, they'll get a million new subscribers who make 2 show wagers and cash out.

Posted by: rr on April 02, 2008 at 01:25 AM

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afi

I really liked your post!
............

sripa1212

...I would love to root for Tomcito in the the Derby....but if he is recovering from a flu,, and trying to get another prep in for needed $$, I'm no specialist...but why stress him?
Why not focus on a prep to the Belmont (where he has proved his distace ability) Ok I'm being the proverbial backseat trainer, Monday night quarterback, etc, BUT.. It's obvious this colt has lots of talent, and you posted previously (maybe on another site) that the Peter Pan-Belmont may be a possibility.

No shame in missing the Derby, if the connections can get muy mucho $$$ in these others races.....

However things shake out, I wish the best for Tomcito and his connections.

..................

Steve T

Thank you for the Santa Anita notes...It's a shame Georgie Boy is out, and also probably out for the Ky Derby...I really had high hopes on him

..........

Alan,

Thanks for the recent updates on the "spreadsheets".
You have WAY too much time on your hands to monitor all of this.
(By the way...how is the house progress?)
I'll be changing my "Crush List"....but holding off until after this weekend
...Big Brown will replace Alaazo (sorry, I know you love him) But I'm still hanging in there with Tale of Ekati.
..Lets see!

...................

Alex ( Zoobird)

You want a creative writing competition for your namesake?
I bet we could come up with some REAL GOOD stories..fiction of course! that could be fun!
................

Nice posts and wins to all this week, sorry if I don't post everyone by name...
BUT, I got to say, this site rocks!

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on April 02, 2008 at 01:39 AM

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sripa1212

...I just noticed the Kentucky Derby future wager Pool 3
...Tomcito at 30-1 odds.
I hope you got some action at 100-1 odds a few weks ago.

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on April 02, 2008 at 01:46 AM

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To the Beyer apologists,

You cannot possibly believe that seasoned handicappers such as Alan or Blue Horseshoe are not aware of Andy Beyer's methodology and his book on formulating speed numbers?

The standard line of "read Andy Beyer's book" or "formulate your own numbers" if you have a problem with the BSF is completely irrelevant to the issue being raised here.

BSFs are basically a final time speed grade represented by a number which is reached by using variables unique to each track. Like a letter grade for a performance in college or school, the legitimacy of the grade is directly tied into the objectivity and uniformity of the system and grades used by the grader.

Just because you question the objectivity or methodology used does not mean that you do not understand the system. Indeed, there are instances as cited where the numbers just do not add up. There seems to be a good amount of tinkering and manual manipulation, for the lack of the better word, used to come up with some of these numbers and there is no plausible way using the BSF methodology (as represented) to come up with these numbers in a consistent and uniform manner.

I take BSFs with a grain of salt. I still think El Gato Malo should have received at least a 102 BSF for smashing the track record for 1 mile in the San Rafael, and I think every other race on that card should have been + 2-3 BSFs. Do I think its a conspriracy? No. Beyer hating California horses? No. The Beyer folks wrestling with exactly how to grade races on synthetic surfaces? Yes, that could be part of it.

Any time human judgement and certain allowances or variables take the place of a systematic formula, the chance of error and inconsistancy emerges. Did that same conjecture take place in the for of discretionary adjustments at Gulfstream Park? I have no clue. But, bloggers like Alan and the rest should be able to at least question the inconsistencies without being hung out as a heretic.

Any system, guys and gals, needs to be open to inspection and consistent; transparant and accountable, in order to maintain longterm credibility. Does the BSF system lend itself to these checks and balances? Will it?
Let history answer that question.

In the meantime, form and visual impression always mean as much, if not more to me, than any number (I know that sounds C-like, but its true).

Posted by: vicstu on April 02, 2008 at 02:39 AM

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rr -

I too use a Mac and it can be tough at times, but try adding the freeware Flip4Mac (which converts many PC streams can be found at http://www.flip4mac.com/) and make sure to set it to "Launch Quicktime Player" as well I made sure to install version 2.1.3.10 as I believe it allows streaming through Quicktime. With it installed I am able to stream racing through TVG ... though I haven't tried it on other platforms lately -- though I believe it also worked with TwinSpires.

- RobertSD

Posted by: RobertSD on April 02, 2008 at 05:09 AM

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Fellow Blue Boxers-I need your input: Arlington is having a handicapping contest on Saturday, and I think that the first few I entered, I demanded too big of a price before I'd play a horse (especially in the optionals)Alan and others who've had success in tourneys-What are the minimum odds you demand before using a horse both in a mandatory or an optional race (format is same as Vegas-$2wp, 8 mandatory, 7 optional)
Also, Hawthorne's past performances are already out and I've pretty much done the card. Does Atoned look to anyone besides me as a prime bounce candidate? (I think Dennis of Cork is a play against especially in a contest primarily because of lack of value and the fact that he really isn't superior to a few other horses)
Riley-don't know if you want to give out "inside info" but with it being incredibly hard to come from behind at Hawthorne, are you planning to have Z Humour closer to the pace?

Posted by: Stephen Taylor on April 02, 2008 at 08:52 AM

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larryk,
We tossed this video around last year (I always thought the video reminded me of HardSpun, although now there is another 3yo that comes to mind):
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6666970094752347036&

johnnyz,
I'm not sure if the Dracula Stakes will stay on turf Friday - remember last year when it was snowing DayOne at KEE! This year, the forecast calls for rain. Riley's "Crush Horse" is a HT'er so would expect RT can handle either 1st-turf or KEE-poly. KEE turf course the past few meets has tended to favor closers, but there isn't a lot of speed to go with your "Crush Horse" - he may go w-t-w. However, will Prussian be able to handle rain and a yielding turf course - he certainly didn't handle the MTH quagmire in the JuvieTurf stretch.
An interesting longshot in the race is another HT 1st-turfer Budge Man - this will be 1st-turf and 1st-graded stakes for a good new trainer Kellyn Gorder (BTW, Formblog trivia nuts - his 1st race as a trainer was ELP7 on Jul18 - that race was part of my 1st posted ELP P4 winning ticket here - his horse came in last in the race...) Budge Man was a 500K KEE yearling purchase, by FuPeg out of a Regal Classic mare, stakes winner Nickel Classic. HS Classic Neel won a turf stakes at the Spa this past year and last April came in 2nd at KEE in the Appalachian, over a length in front of Rutherienne. Budge Man should be flying at the end - I'm just not sure what type of pace he will be flying into!!

In the 1st 4.5f 2yo race of the year (KEE3), it will be hard for me to get by Merkel and Kickapoo...

Good luck today!!

Posted by: Alan on April 02, 2008 at 09:27 AM

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Sripa1212,

I essentially agree with Tomcito's BSF of 85 (could of even been an 84) as it tracks with the straight formula of 1.8 BSF points per length x 12.5 lengths back of Big Brown. Beyers don't account for ground loss and they absolutely do not reward winners with bonus points.

What was he about 4-wide on the far turn? You could adjust for this in your own evaluation and give him an extra 3 lengths covered and adjust the figure up to about a 90 if you wanted to. One thing though with his running style, I would think that he'd usually be hitting the far turn wide to pass tiring horses (unless you land Calvin Borrel and the Red Sea parts along the rail)...

Tomcito will certainly need to move several lengths forward to be competitive in the KY Derby. Your reports are very valuable here as you said he needed the race and wasn't 100% and then might have had a fever... If all of this is the case then he's a more intriguing KY Derby prospect to me than Giacomo was at this time a couple of years ago and we could see a lot of front end pace between War Pass and Big Brown... You never know...

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on April 02, 2008 at 10:00 AM

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I NEED BEYERS!!!

I need them man, I need them!!! Making my own figures at tracks all over the place is just not a viable option for me. I absolutely need to trust them as they provide the key baseline with which my handicapping is based upon. I'm all too aware of how track speed can vary and be manipulated to be confident in simply reading times.

Fortunately, for the most part, I'm very comfortable with BSF assignments, particulary at NYRA tracks. I'll have occasional disagreements most commonly with turf races, but I understand these and find them to create nice betting opportunities (i.e. limited turf races on given day at route slowed by pace often leads to overly adjusted variant raising the figures of losing horses in the field above their ability level).

That said, I've found the Gulfstream figures for the current meet to have a greater level of inconsistency than I'm comfortable with and the problem is that I've often got to take a leap of faith in trust with these figures.

I've joked (only partially) to people that Andy Beyer (in his contempt for the preeminence of Thistledowns caliber racing populating the GP cards) has assigned his Junior Varsity Thistledown's figure maker...:) It seems that it's been very sloppy down there... Fortunately, I've still got faith in the NYRA figures and it's April!!!

In Alan's theme of movie lines, regarding BSFs, from Richard Gere's character Zack Mayo in An Officer and a Gentlemen..."I've got know where else to go!...I'VE GOT NO WHERE ELSE TO GOOOOO!!!!

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on April 02, 2008 at 10:28 AM

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RE: Elysium Fields

Last night was the first time since getting home from Florida that I really broke down the replay and chart in evaluation of the Florida Derby. I'm confomfortable throwing Elysium Fields race out altogether!

Big Brown literally ran the field's (pun) feet off!! The jockeys were measuring their positioning off of BB and with that actual pace scenario, some of these horses were simply running way too fast for their individual pace zone.

Note that Elysium Fields didn't even break his maiden until stretching out to a two-turn 1 1/8 mile race. He was able to stalk and pounce off of a reasonable pace scenario. When you look at him physically, he fits the mold of the physically big, long strider than needs to run about 12 second furlongs until being asked for run on the far turn. That's exactly what he did in his impressive maiden win and impressive 2nd in the Fountain of Youth.

EF clearly can rate and I think he needed to be about 10 lengths back of that hot pace. My experience with Eibar Coa is that he's not the best jockey at measuring pace during a race and in this case, he rode EF with the same stalking trip that had worked before off of much slower paces. I hope Barclay runs him back in the Lexington to get graded earnings because he's the kind of horse that I'd love to get in the Derby at a price (ideally with a different jockey)...

To me, the Florida Derby essentially played out as a graded stakes caliber 7 furlong race and I've got no problem forgiving those that were up too close to that pace when coming back to another route in a likely much different pace scenario...

Just my humble opinion...

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on April 02, 2008 at 10:54 AM

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Svhill,

Who did Dennis of Cork beat in the Southwest? Sierra Sunset finished 2nd behind him and returned to win the Rebel. Liberty Bull dead-heated for third and returned to win the Winstar Derby. I'm not saying that makes Dennis of Cork a Derby favorite, just that when two horses you defeated come back to win their next race, it definitely flatters your performance IMO. I also get the sense that the Derby might set up well for him too, just based on the styles of the horses running. We'll know more after this weekend as I know a lot of people seem to like Atoned and they'll be going against each other.

In regards to Big Brown, I'd read a few items where it stated he ran "greenly" through the stretch. I disagreed with that statement. I thought he was tired and as you stated, he had every right to be after those early fractions. You are definitely correct in saying he ran a huge race though and I don't disagree about that.

IMO, Big Brown is probably going to see those types of fractions again in May, especially if we see War Pass return to form and if Bob Black Jack's connections decide to send that one. I believe War Pass or Big Brown, whichever one runs the other off it's feet, hits the board at Churchill. I just am not convinced that the effort to do it won't take enough out of the horse to allow one of the late-runners to pick them off for the top prize.

And finally, I did have Big Brown ranked third..... that's not exactly dismissing his chances is it?

Johnny Z.,
This is an exceedingly tough year to rank the Derby. I love Col. John and EGM, but have huge reservations about synthetic form transferring to dirt. Workouts at Churchill are going to be much more important, especially for those two, then anytime I can remember.

The final times for most of the prep races have been slower than the fillies running the same routes most days. I really think Country Star would be ranked higher on my list if I knew the connections were going to give her a shot. As Svhill stated, nobody has really beat anybody because a lot of these horses are pretty equal right now. We still have four weeks to figure things out. And if I don't get the Derby right, it's still opening day at Canterbury and I'll get it back on 10K maiden claimers!!!!

But all in all, I do love Top 10 lists like this. They open debate, allow a little refreshing argument outside of why Andy Beyer continues to scheme to irritate Alan and Steve T. (Just kidding guys).

Posted by: Danny B on April 02, 2008 at 11:08 AM

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RE: First time Gelding

rr,

Welcome to this blog. I'm not aware of a better interactive blog anywhere on the internet.

I think that part of the problem is that some trainers honestly forget to mention the change to gelding when entering. If it's a first time starter or coming off a layoff, the gelding may have occurred weeks/months before the race and trainers have so much running through their minds that in the current environment, it could easily be an honest omission.

I've had this happen. My trainer is as honest as they come and doesn't play any games or set up bets or any of that (as some do...). We had a race in January where my gelding was simply entered and then showed up as a colt for his debut start (he had previously been entered correctly as a colt at Aqueduct but was scratched at the gate). Well, naturally he goes off to wire the field at 8-1... Interestingly there were some at the National Handicapping contest in Vegas that had him and started day one with a nice boost...

I would have no problem if the sport wanted to crack down and make this a very important communication upon entry (with adverse consequences otherwise) as I think the greater awareness to the importance would help keep honest trainers honest...

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on April 02, 2008 at 11:26 AM

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Greetings fellow bloggers, you gotta love the derby...the buzz...the crowd...the juleps...the arguing! Man I love the arguing! 1 of 20 that go postward will don roses in the winners circle. Which one you got???? I have to say it seems like there are some newbies in the derby spotlight that likely will be in the fray with David Carroll, Bennie Stutts, and Steve Asmussen (yeah he's big time now but who's his derby horse before these past 2 years???) For a fan like me it sure makes it more interesting and far more exciting than the days of lukas baffert lukas baffert. I had the Pletcher filly last year - I loved the way she was coming into the race but truthfully I was more convinced that the Pletcher Triple Crown Jinx was ludicrous. This guy is gonna win the big one - multiple times! Maybe he's the largest operating dark horse of all time :) Regardless, as I keep writing in this room I have to temper my enthusiasm before all the facts are laid out or otherwise the first SUNDAY in may I'll have a Big Brown tattoo and the horse will have done a Bellamy Road, Talkin Man, Sinister Minister, Afleet Alex - yes there is redemption down the line but there is NOTHING like being RIGHT the first Saturday in May. So keep talking bloggers...you are contributing to my final opinion...

PS I love PHILOSOPHIZER (5/1 ML) in the Big A finale today. He was off slow last time and made up a ton of ground. Claimed from that one by a shrewd high off the claim barn I like him to run back with a maiden victory and you can take this one to the bank because where I am today I can't make a bet! Anyone else have this problem or just me? Anyway I'm just hoping the fruits of my labor can pay dividends for someone else other than me so I thought I'd share. I have no inside info just a strong opinion - to be RIGHT :)

Posted by: jlove on April 02, 2008 at 11:43 AM

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You've been busted, and you know who I am talking to:
(HAHAHHA)
Nice attemp at anonymity.

I don't see what the big deal is-- BUT, you are part of Manhattan Racing Stable w/ Mark Henning. Nice pop w/ Manhattan Star @ GP on Jan. 25 R3. (Hahaah) I have solved the equation that you layed out.

Posted by: Steve V. on April 02, 2008 at 12:07 PM

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One quick Aqu play:
R2- Take a 2-4 and 4-2 exacta. They both have exceptional route breeding, especially for Nybreds.
I heard the 2 Atlas Mountain was a runner in his debut, and had a valid excuse as he gut pummeled (bumped soundly) in the stretch while rallying from far off the pace.
The 4 Alpha Dancer gets Dominguez and had a troubled trip (stumbling first turn) in last as well. He also has developed a "mini pattern" to run back to a big race in this spot.

Posted by: Steve V. on April 02, 2008 at 12:15 PM

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Steve V,

Go back and read my post to you a few days ago in response to your question (Boss Tiffany at Monmouth) to me....I thought I gave you all you needed...LOL...

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on April 02, 2008 at 12:29 PM

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Alan,

Thanks for the video, been a Danzig fan for quite sometime.

Agree, with your comments with the Dracula race on Frid. and turf conditions. We've had alot of rain and here and more this past week. The ground will probably have a cut in it. And agree with your comments with Prussian and Mth. And his not liking the conditions. And if the race comes off the trf, both the trf and AW are not kind to frontrunners. Maybe, thats why BM has 2 entries in the race. Thanks for the tip on BudgeMan. Actually, 2 horses in that race I'm looking at(gotta playDA)The 2 BossLafitte-TheLord At War Dams do well at Kland(similiar to Purims cross-actually is)Plus Roberto/Dynaformer do well there as well and he has the right running style for the course. Even though I like Barrier Reef in here, another that I'm looking at is Free Fighter-Team Block, you can't go wrong and JV picks up the mount. Could make for a nice late dble, as I'm looking at Silver Ed. back class with Smooth Air, St. Joe(DM always has some bombs here-and points for this meet)blks off,back class and won over the oval here in Oct. or Noble Hero, won here in Oct. over Mambo in Seattle.
In the baby race you speak of Merkel who looks good, however it looks like his teammate has been working with him and is 5-1...vs7-2ML.
Cowboyatheart has the rail and he looks just as good as Merkel and Kickapoo on paper.
The works on the bomb here GoFlight, are ordinary, but out of a very underrated win early sire. Do like the fact that he's had published wo dating back to Dec. He probably has more bottom than most here and Dean Sarvis takes the mt. And he's probably been wking the hrse since its been at Trfway. Just thoughts, but think its more than a 2 hrse race.
Keeneland is always interesting.

Posted by: larryk on April 02, 2008 at 12:36 PM

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Stephan Taylor,

regarding Z Humor, I would have to pick my dad's brain before I could tell you what the game plan is because I do not know yet. If i can squeeze something out of him I'll let you know haha.

Posted by: Riley on April 02, 2008 at 12:42 PM

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SteveV,

The owner Mark Spizter, is that the Mark Spizter?

Posted by: larryk on April 02, 2008 at 12:43 PM

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Regarding Beyer numbers and the example I brought up about the Santa Anita races -
I had a strong feeling when the races were run that Beyer would give a higher number to stakes caliber horses over the 16k claimers even though the claimers ran faster & carried more weight. My opinion is that Beyer is using too much human adjustment and that they are predisposed to assign higher numbers to classier horses because they "should" have run faster. Let the figures stand on their own merit and let me as a handicapper decide why the figure was lower than par or why the claimer may have run faster than par. Am I supposed to forget what I visually watched, forget what the teletimer actually read & just "trust " that the horse that ran 3 ticks of a second slower carrying less weight actually ran 5 Beyer points faster ??? It is too many instances like this that lead me to have less and less faith in the Beyer Speed Figures. I made my notes on the races and can handicap a future race that these horses are involved in accordingly. What about the guy that didn't see these races, buys the DRF and handicaps the race using the official Beyer speed figure inherently trusting its accuracy?

Posted by: dk on April 02, 2008 at 01:10 PM

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The daily variant(s) that the Beyer folks come up with are based on a very small handful of races, maybe even 3 or less in some cases. Many (correctly) questioned the validity of the post position data at GP because the stats were based on an extremely small sample size. Why are the daily variants any different?

It seems that most horseplayers, whether they admit it or not, use BSFs as a shortcut to quickly separate contenders. There are no magical formulas or figures in this game. Horses are living, breathing animals, not machines. What ever happened to drawing your own opinions by watching races? Geeez, before replays became available on the internet, I recorded and watched races on VHS. It was a tedious routine, but I found that I often disagreed with Beyer Assoc, as well as DRF columnists and turf writers. It often payed off, and even when it didn't, I felt much more confident playing my own opinions, rather than take someone else's word for it.

Posted by: C on April 02, 2008 at 01:41 PM

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One other thing...
If you DO believe in BSFs, you still have to ask yourself if they provide any useful independent information that cannot be gathered, or just guessed, from other factors. If not, what's the point? Where's the value in the figures?
For example, suppose Beyer decided he didn't feel like assigning a number to Big Brown in the Fla Derby. Watching the race, do you feel that you NEED a number to evaluate him? Or suppose Beyer gave him an 85. Would you take it at face value and assume the Florida Derby was slower or worse than Big Truck's Tampa Bay Derby? What exactly are the figures adding for you guys that watching replays cannot provide?

Posted by: C on April 02, 2008 at 01:54 PM

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From Courier-Journal.com

Colonel John is the 2-1 morning-line favorite for Saturday’s $750,000 Santa Anita Derby, the West Coast’s leading prep for the May 3 Kentucky Derby.

Colonel John comes into the race off a half-length victory in Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes over previously unbeaten El Gato Malo, who is the 5-2 second choice in the field of 11 three-year-olds running 1 1/8 miles.

NBC will show the race live in its 5-6 p.m. EDT telecast, which also includes New York’s Wood Memorial.

Santa Anita Derby

Post time: Saturday at 5:30 p.m. EDT at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, Calif. Purse: $750,000. Distance: 1 1/8 miles. Weight: 122 miles. Television: NBC 5-6 p.m. EDT.

Pp horse jockey/trainer odds

1. *Yankee Bravo*Solis/Gallagher*4-1

2. *Signature Move*M.Baze/Guillot*30-1

3. *Coast Guard*Talamo/D. Hofmans*20-1

4. *Bob Black Jack*Migliore/Kasparoff*6-1

5. *Colonel John*Nakatani/Harty*2-1

6. *On the Virg*T. Baze/Pletcher*15-1

7. *Shore Do*Sutherland/Koriner*20-1

8. *El Gato Malo*Flores/C. Dollase*5/2

9. *Polonius*Espinoza/Pender*10-1

10. *Meetingwithdestiny*Rosario/O’Neill*30-1

11. *Rosso Corsa*A. Quinonez/Vienna*50-1

Posted by: Leo on April 02, 2008 at 02:51 PM

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Steve V...not good in Race 2 maybe next time...try me on for size in Race 9 number 9 since i never get to help a brother :) also check this article from todays cover page

Spring at Last top weight in Carter

With Midnight Lute skipping the race, Spring at Last will be the starting highweight for Saturday's Gradeo1 Carter Handicap at 121 pounds. Commentator was also assigned 121, but he is not expected to start.

Spring at Last, who won the 2007 Godolphin Mile in Dubai, has raced only twice since then, but both were very good races. He won an optional claiming race on turf at Santa Anita on Dec. 26 before pulling a mild upset in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream on Feb. 2.

Spring at Last, trained by Doug O'Neill, was expected to fly here from California on Tuesday. Garrett Gomez will ride.

The Tony Dutrow-trained pair of Lord Snowdon and Premium Wine worked five furlongs in company Monday at Aqueduct. Both were timed in 1:01.58.

With Midnight Lute not coming, Richard Dutrow Jr. may run one or more of his three nominees, including Not for Money, City Attraction, and Stormin' Normandy.

Wheres BUSTIN??????

PS We were on the same page as I thought the BLUE HORSESHOE was Mark Hennig :) BH, love your stuff my friend - I don't have the years but i do share the interest. Anyone else in here watch Aqueduct?

Posted by: jlove on April 02, 2008 at 03:39 PM

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You sure got it right. These are living, breathing animals that have good days and bad days just like the rest of us.

It seems these days that people treat these animals like robots. Everything to be measured by the numbers. "If I plug in this number with that number and reduce it by this number (for track bias between the 6th and the 7th race, at this particular track) I come up with this equation." Geez Louise, everthing is a tool to be used, but the old eye test is still the best there is.

Sometimes I wake up and for no reason I have a chink in my ankle or my knee and have a small pain. Sometimes people feel a little queasy or have little ailments that won't show up on an x-ray or in an examination. Same thing for horses. Sometimes they run lights out because they feel great and sometimes for no explainable reason they lay an egg. It might have nothing to do with the competition, track, travel, pace, position or anything else but the horse just didn't feel right for whatever reason. Sometimes they are feeling just fine but they don't feel like running.

My dad had an old mare who had tremendous mood swings that were quite visible. Everytime she raced she would let him know whether she was good to go or not, by her actions. She would run like the wind when she was feeling good and wouldn't run a lick when she wasn't. Never could find a thing wrong with her physically. My old man learned her moods so well that he was able to predict pretty well where she was at mentally. He actually scratched her on several occassions because of what he percieved from the mare.

These numbers are fine and I would never suggest ignoring any information that could be of value. It is the weighting of the information that is most important, and I will always take my own eyes over a number that seems quite arbitrary.

How many races does it take to see horses stumbling out of the gate or getting mugged or being taken 15 wide before you realize the beyer doesn't allow for this. In almost every race there is at least some small excuse for many in the field and some have major excuses. BSf's just don't account for all the things that happen in a particular race.

Having said that, I think there is a place for every tool you can come up with, including the Beyer.

The replays available today have made my handicapping so much easier(in terms of time). There is not a better handicapping tool than those replays, other than inside info.

Posted by: MudhoundMojo on April 02, 2008 at 03:55 PM

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Jonnhy, Afi, Blue, Al Sr vegas and all..

thnaks for the input and your opinions, they are very valuable...I appreciated...

Tomcito s doing weel, jogging alrady, he is eating good and the latest scope show he is clean (just about)...so he really has not missed much at all if you consider he would have gooten a few days of rest anyway...

We hope the earnings stand, if not it looks that we may try the Lexington. Since he ha not run in over 4 months, it would not be much stress to bring him back in 3 weeks...and then try the derby 2 later, as in his races he really only runs the last 5 furlongs...

i know this is difficult, so we are crossing our fingers that there are defections (without wishing anyone any bad) and that the big boys win the upcoming stakes and no one moves up too much...

As for the beyers I am in the "I dont undertsand camp"...I simply look at three numbers from that race: BB of 106 in 1.48
She is all Eltish at 90 in 1.51. 4/5, and we are at 85?, when we probably crossed the wire in 1.50 and change...

go figure????

Andy beyer should review whst behind the curtans I guess...does not take a scientist to realize something is wacky here...

Will post after the weekend and see where we stand in earnings...

best to all.

Posted by: sripa1212 on April 02, 2008 at 04:11 PM

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jlove,

I couldn't be Mark Hennig. Mark is much smarter than me and wouldn't have time to follow and post regularly on a blog. Plus, he was in Dubai while I was at Gulfstream Park this past weekend...

I'm going to go ahead and play your pick #9 and use her with Parisella's filly #2.

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on April 02, 2008 at 04:25 PM

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I think Tomcito would have to improve 8-10 lenghts in the KY derby to be truly considered in the top flight of real contenders...

Comsidering the following....1st race in 4+months: 2-3 lenghts; not 100%: 2-3 lenghts; added furlong 1-2 lenghts; and lets hope BB regresses 2 lenghts for the added distance...and we feel he can be up there...

Now that is all wishfull thinking in the future...but then that is what dreams are made of....

cheers !!

Posted by: sripa1212 on April 02, 2008 at 04:28 PM

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SR Vegas,
You certainly are the glue that holds the Blue Boxers together! Dan would be the "owner" of the blog (in horse racing terms) and you would be the "trainer" ... you make sure everyone is feelin' good and ready to give a good handicapping performance!

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victsu,
Excellent post concerning the criticism of bloggers criticizing the BSF's.

Dk,
Dead on with your analysis that the stakes horses are going to get higher beyers with slower times.

C,
Daily track variants are probably the epitome of small sample size. I have no idea what the logic is for taking 2 races in one card and breaking out the adjusting stick solely based on those 2 races and what the horses should have done. Races in the rain will come up slower. Other than that possible adjustment, day to day variants seem a stretch at best. I don't know how many times I've been at the track (Los Alamitos in So. CAL is my closest track) and a horse takes them wire to wire (on a satellite track) in Race 1 and 53 people start screaming “SPEED”S HOLDING, TRACK'S BIASED TOWARDS SPEED TODAY!”. Then they throw away the hour of handicapping work they just did and bet on whichever horse will lead 30 feet out of the gate. I saw the race and say 'Horse 5 in the only horse that has gotten to 4F in under :46 and no one else looks like they can get there in :47. Even though #5 has faded in his last two races against tougher, he looks like a good bet at 9/2 to get the lead, slow the pace, and then have enough to hold on the last 2F”.

Sripa1212,
Now you're talking! Dream big brother! Things change almost daily on the Derby Trail. One day War Pass is blowing them away, the next day he's a need the lead that doesn't like to be touched. One day Pyro is racking up big speed numbers and the next day he's regressing figure wise from last year. One day Georgie Boy is on the march with a astute trainer and the next day he's pulled a back muscle. One day Big Brown is an up and coming Turf horse and the next day he's the Derby favorite. One day Tomcito is an unknown Peruvian horse and the next day he's Street Sense II (whoops getting ahead of myself).

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I think what most of the bloggers are looking for from the Beyers is just assign the darn number based on final times with an adjustment between tracks (I.e. a Del Mar 1:04 5F = a Santa Anita 1:01 5F) and by distance (I.e. 1:01 5F = 1:13.8 6F) ... or whatever those equivalents would be and then LET US AS HANDICAPPERS decide the context in which the last race was run and LET US apply that to today's race. If Pyro deserved a 77 based on his final time at that distance at that track, then give him a 77. Us as handicappers will then say for his next race: 1) The pace for Pyro's last race was ridiculously slow leading to a slow final time, 2) when Pyro was asked for his run, he blew them away around and through traffic, and 3) the pace of today's race will be much faster so Pyro should have even more of a chance to close into this quicker pace.

Not this:

Although the race time sucked, Pyro is good, so 93 !!

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Steve T has also touched on this before, but the range of synthetic finishing times is much tightly grouped between the horses than a dirt race. Any figures should be based on this range and not a top down approach (in my opinion). Plus we REALLY should now be looking at these synthetic times with a TURF eye. It's more than apparent that these races are run more and more turf style. Final fractions should move up the handicapping ladder.

Hmmm, I sense a plea for BBSF's!! (Blue Boxer Speed Figures)

Time to give Pebblecito a 2 furlong blowout!

Afi

Posted by: Afi on April 02, 2008 at 08:12 PM

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Wow what a way to make an entrance...i posted one and only one pick and he was pulled up...my apologies to those who were on board especially the jockey...that being said...i will persevere and hope to come back stronger next time...gotta love this game...as for my friend BH not being Mark Hennig...I was disappointed for about a minute but no offense to Mark as I'm sure he's a great guy but I wouldn't declare him smarter than the next person...he's had some good ones (didnt he train Pleasant Tap my mind escapes me?) but that doenst give him the nobel prize ;) Lets keep on keeping on and again my apologies for the poor selection...my only saving grace was Parisellas filly didn't do much in her own right... theres always tomorrow...

Posted by: jlove on April 02, 2008 at 08:17 PM

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Alan,

Man of many talents. Just looked at the weather channel for the Friday weather @ Keeneland. Once again you were right on. I also doubt the Trans. S will be ran on the Turf. Looks like I may finally get my wish to see Prussian on dirt. Won't tell us (or trainer) anything as you well know Danzig babies take to the slop, like Britney Spears takes to trouble. Anyway looking forward to the Kee. meet. They have a .50 P-4, and .50 Trifecta! I will have some fun with that one. Also a gauranteed 200k P-4 every Friday.

This weeks Derby picks;
#1 (1) PYRO, has not done anything wrong, and like that he was closer to the pace in the LA Derby.

#2 (2) Denis of Cork, I hate his foundation for the Derby, but I like this one's running style, how he negotiates traffic and, pedigree to win @ 10F. Also if he wins the Ill. Derby, that will be 4 wins on 4 different tracks. (versatility) Also, had a bullet work @ C.D. a couple days back, big plus IMO.

#3 (3)Colonel John, has the looks and, pedigree of a Derby winner. Matter of fact I think CJ will like 10F better than 9F. All indication is connections will ship early to CD, so will at least get to see a couple of works.

#4 (4) El Gato Malo, don't feel much separates him and, CJ. CJ has a beter 10F pedigree, but feel ELM was born with a fighters tenacity that can't be trained. He kind of reminds me of James Braddock for you boxing fans out there. (was the fighter in the movie Cinderella Man, and subject in the book written by Jeremy Schaap)).

#5 (nr) Big Brown, Obviously a fast talented colt. His 3 preps scares me. Curlin couldn't win the Derby with 3 under his belt, and IMO BB is a leap and bound behind Curlin. BB, has won on Turf, the slop, and a fast track. That in itself is as freaky as how fast this colt appears. Could be the next GREAT ONE!

#6 (6) Court Vision, my crush horse early in the year. The tough as nails runner wasn't that bad in is last, and he picks up Gomez, (opting off of Colonel John). Don't think he needs to win the Wood, but needs to make a good impression.

#7 (8) Atoned, PLETCHER, and may have the best 10F pedigree of all listed in the future pool.

#8 (10) Cool Coal Man, feel his post helped him in his last. If he wins the Bluegrass will move-up IMO.

#9 War Pass (nr), is no doubt fast, and feel he will rebound with a good performance in the Wood. Still a ? mark to get 10F. Also feel if WP, and BB get in a lead struggle it will cook both of them.

#10 (11) Tomcito, thought his effort in the Fla. Derby was good. Lay off, first in the US, and was really coming on strong at the end. IMO, he will have to be much closer to the pace to have a chance in the Derby.

#11 (nr) Smooth Air, effort last weekend was almost not noticed. As a 3 yr old stands a chance to impove. If he does, could be dangerous.

#12 (nr) Kings Silver Son, his 2nd in the Rebel is being over looked by many. The Asmussen trained colt may strut his stuff in the Ark. Derby.

Won't mention reason, but will state these still merit consideration; Cowboy Cal, Fierce Wind, Big Truck, Country Star, Proud Spell, and Eight Belles.

We are just a month away from the 134th Derby. I know the next 2 weeks are important preps, but surely some of you have a list now. Don't be shy, I would love to see some of your thoughts!

Best of Luck to All Tomorrow.

Posted by: johnnyz on April 03, 2008 at 12:11 AM

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Riley,

The Ashland Stakes at Keeneland is shaping up to be pretty tough - Bsharpsonata, Proud Spell, Country Star, Absolutely Cindy and, one of my favorites, Life Is Sweet.

Good luck Saturday!

Posted by: Calvin Carter on April 03, 2008 at 01:05 AM

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