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FormBlog | May 29, 2008

Catching up

Greetings,
I posed the same question to Steve Crist and would like your honest opinion as well. In Race 7 at Belmont, watch the head-on and please let me know if Prado should have been dq...
...Dan,A few years ago, I watched OTB show an Australia race whereby there was a stewards inquiry.  The camera showed the stewards watched the replay and also showed the communications between the stewards and the jockeys involved to get their take on the race.Why can't we do this in the States?  I am still upset over the non-dq on Saturday that cost me a much needed 10k.  The stewards should be forced to give a reason as to why a dq takes place or does not take place.
KYL Syndicate

The pan shot didn't look very flattering, and the head-on looked downright awful.  Prado was in a tight spot, and had to angle out for running room in late stretch.  As he did so, he seemed to cause a chain reaction to his outside that affected several runners.  I'm surprised he didn't come down.  I agree with you that it would show more goodwill to the bettors if the stewards actually gave an explanation concerning inquiries and objections.  Most of the fans don't know the names of the stewards at their home track.  Heck, even the umpires in Major League Baseball get their names announced on television.

***

Some fantistic calls today;
First Laura, and ...then Dan with Meal Penalty (can't believe he went off at 7-1) and then Transduction Gold (34-1) for a sweet exacta with Lattice. Just wondering how did you bet Louisville H? Tri? super?
Arazi

Dan did you have the exacta box in the Louisville Handicap?  It paid $200 for $2.
Tony Kelso

Unfortunately, I wasn't as aggressive as I should have been.  I played Transduction Gold to Win, and used him on top of Lattice and Pickapocket in Exactas.  Those were the main plays, and I didn't cash any of those tickets. Thankfully, I played saver Exactas with Lattice and Pickapocket on top of Transduction Gold ($203.80 for $2), and that bailed me out and then some.  I also played Transduction Gold to Place, and while many handicappers will snicker at the bet, I'm not ashamed to take more than 10-1 to Place on a horse I really think has a good chance.  I probably should have attacked the trifecta with some creative architecture, but I didn't do much with it.

Dan,
I've reading about how Mauralakana will be compromised by the "lack of pace" in the Sheapshead Bay. Here's a strange question: if you have a field of dedicated deep closers but no front-runners, are any of them at a bigger disadvantage than the rest? It's really a matter of how such a race will unfold, isn't it?
I didn't look at the Sheapshead Bay, so I'm not sure whether this situation accurately describes the field. I also realize that some horses might want to be covered up more/less than others and some may not always require a target to run at. But if each of the runners has the same "wait-wait-wait-and-pounce" style, why would Mauralakana, for example, be at a bigger disadvantage than someone else?
There is no such thing as a paceless race. The pace might be slow, but SOMEONE has to (and will) set it. That much is guaranteed. The trick is figuring out who will do it.

C

C raises some excellent points.  On paper, the Sheepshead Bay had no true speed horse.  Herboriste, the pacesetter by default, was 11 lengths off the leader at the first call of her most recent start (behind a 49 second half-mile), and hadn't been closer than third (two lengths behind a 51.20 half-mile) at the first call of any of her races in this country.  She ran a good second, and was probably aided by setting slow fractions, but she's not used to being a pacesetter, and was taken out of her usual game by winding up on the front.  As C writes, "the trick is figuring out who will set the pace."  Those who guessed Herboriste would be in front cashed the exacta.
In a case like this, are any of the closers at a bigger disadvantage than the others?  Probably not.  The best one should, and in this case, did win the race, and Mauralakana rallied by the leader with panache in the stretch.  I admit that I misread the race by downgrading her chances due to a "lack of pace."  In Europe, there rarely is a race with tons of pace, and those races are still won by the runner with the strongest late kick.  Perhaps closers should be downgraded in a "paceless" race only if there is one speed horse in a field full of closers (as in the Meal Penalty race at Arlington over the weekend).  In this case, the closers may be compromised by the tactical advantage the speed horse invariably has in these situations.
Lesson learned, then.  Don't discount a quality closer in a "paceless" race when the opposition is likely to be compromised by the race shape as well.


***

looking forward to hearing what three year olds might reappear for the Belmont.  Any chance that we see Pyro or Z Fortune?
wilson

just wondering if you could post the tomlinson #'s for the horses in the belmont stakes   
$bill

You won't see those two in the Belmont.  Pyro is pointing for the Northern Dancer at Churchill Downs.  Here are the possible/probables for the Belmont with their respective Tomlinson ratings.

Anak Nakal - 286
Big Brown - 336
Casino Drive - 325*
Denis of Cork - 279*
Icabad Crane - 321*
Macho Again - 210
Ready's Echo (possible) - 277
Spark Candle (possible) - 344
Tale of Ekati - 236
Tomcito - 310

***

Did anybody else notice how FAR OFF the morning line odds are in DRF lately???...what gives first Lauren goes and now this..what next??
I know i'm still from the stone age and actually but the PRINT version but it seems these cost saving moves are just gonna piss me off!!! sorry needed to vent...also stupid question time....why do certain tracks only have odd numbered or even numbered races???...
thanks Finski

Whenever we can, DRF uses the track's morning line odds.  This is designated by the ML listed over the odds on the track's selector page.  When there is a DRFLINE listed over the odds, that means that the odds are made by the SWEEP selector on the page with their comments added.  When ODDS are listed over the line, then the DRF's automated system made the odds.  This is generally the weakest of the three lines. 
You'll see tracks in Ohio use only odd or even races because they'll share the racing for the day.  For example, Thistledown may run races 1,3,5,7,9 while Beulah runs 2,4,6,8,10,12.  When one race is completed at a track, the next race is then held at the other venue.  They call it the 7/7 because there is 14 races carded between the two tracks.
Online handicappers using Formulator 4.1 will always have access to the track's morning line when the racecard is marked "Final."

***

Nasty spill at Monmouth today in the Elkwood.  Can anyone provide the status of these horses and jocks?  I believe the only ones who did not get up and walk away were Silent Roar and his jock, Stewie Elliot. 
Very scary scene at Hol Park R7.  I'm hoping and praying both jocks are ok.  Also, being optimistic that at least one of the horses was able to walk away...From what I've heard, hitting the cushion or polytrack is like hitting concrete for a jock.  Tyler Baze went down extremely hard.  Any updates on horse/rider would be appreciate. 
...Speaking of which, what is the story with Lady of Venice?
Sedonia

Stewart Elliott went to the hospital for X-rays on his back.  Silent Roar was vanned off.  I believe the other riders and horses came back okay.
At Hollywood, Waveland Avenue was euthanized.  The jockeys escaped serious injury.
Lady of Venice worked Sunday morning at Belmont.  Perhaps she'll race in the Just a Game on Belmont Stakes Day in preparation for races like the Beverly D.

Handicapper(s) of the Week:

Race 1
WORKING MAN BLUES has proven to be equally adept at running on turf or the main track. He seems to have his problems at the start, but runs for a team that is a moon shot 44% for the year.
Race 3
LEMONETTE is back home after her European tour through Britain and Germany. Certainly has the leg to get the distance and her first run in North America was a very nice second to Forest Melody in a $77K allowance.
Race 4
Kind of a strange race, imagine that an $8K claimer being weird… TRAFFIC UPDATE is coming back off of his year long layoff working like a crazy horse and is running for a new barn.
Race 3
Hey, our first stakes for the babies this year, and the first time they have been 5.5F. Always dicey to try and predict who can win off of 2F races. BACKBACKBACKGONE destroyed the field in his debut, winning by ten lengths in a 4.5F race! Can’t believe that 5.5 will be an issue, although I would have liked to see a work on the Hollywood surface.
Dr. Derango:  STAR NICHOLAS doesn’t look the part of a mad bomber, but this lightly raced five year old was voted “Most Likely to Improve”, or was that the “Best Buffet”, ack, too much time in casinos. If you smell a bridgejumper, then take a hard look at this one.
Dr. Derango:  CARMAN (8/1) needed seven tries to break his maiden, and then they moved him to turf where he is 2/2, one a sprint and one a route. Team is good for 35% with an ROI of $4.06. Also has the live work set, and may get lost in the shuffle odds wise.
Race 2
Los Alamitos is invading! WILBUR’S MR. ED changed barns and immediately changed course to the good. His last two races are very competitive at this level and distance. EXCESS TEMPTATIONS has been running well, but has run into Smart Hit and Common Trust (both Steve V. horses).
Race 4
MOSTACOLLI MORT is very dangerous at this level, and has run against some very good horses. He is a cut below the graded stakes world, but here he should be king.
Look out, here comes a pony from Mr. Headley who is absolutely scorching the track in his works. BLACK WOLF is a five year old maiden who ran once and then went on the shelf. But the works… CONCERTO’S THUNDER ran a killer race last out, finishing second to Usurp. If he runs like that again, it’s a done deal.
Race 6
TRIBAL JUSTICE looked very good in his last, finishing a solid second to Raingear. Sadler and Bejarano provide the back up. Has three fast works, which is unusual for Sadler.
Race 9
As much as I want to go with the old gelding, I think he will need a race. DAYTONA gets the lead and keeps the lead, hard to go against him. EVER A FRIEND has won two in a row against high level competition including a convincing Grade 1 win at this distance. HYPERBARIC has been the “wise guy” for a couple of races now, and almost caught the top one last out. His record at the distance is 3-2-1-0 against quality competition, and picks up Bejarano.
Race 10
The grand finale, the impossible maiden claimer… TURKISH VICTORY almost caught All Money No Love in his last; in fact his last three races were close up seconds. This is probably the ideal distance for him.
Steve T

As usual, Steve T. and Dr. Derango alerted us to some nice winners including Traffic Update, Carman ($22.60), Tribal Justice ($8.80), Turkish Victory ($8.00), Star Nicholas ($89.20!!!), several cold exactas, and the cold trifecta in the Shoemaker Mile.  Great stuff!!!


2-We know the 2 will be tough, but what else.  The 4 is an overlay on the ML at 12-1.
4-I really like the 1 here(and he was my contest selection)
8-I'm gonna go against the Dr. D here.  I like the 2 Lord at War damsire fillies:ANd that being the 5 n 6
larryk

Excellent selections!  Trevor's Clever paid $36.20 in the Alydar Stakes at Hollywood.  The 4-2 exacta with Madeo returned $37.20 for each dollar invested.  Traffic Update returned $15.20 in the fourth at Hollywood.  Queen of the Castle paid $8.00 in the eighth.

I also used those four in the late Pick 4.  The first leg just finished and I had to sweat out my single (Colonial Kid) who held on over bad trip Les Antiques.  I have the 2,4,5 in race 9, the 1A,2,3,4 in race 10 and the 6,7,8,10,11 in race 11.
Lenny

Lenny successfully completed his Pick 4 to the tune of $826.


Horse Alert!!
Monastic Springs (Sadler's Wells out of Ipe Tombe) makes his debut in Race 7 at Belmont!
Laura

Monastic Springs paid $27.80 despite the sparkling pedigree.  Great find!


Arlington race 8
Meal Penalty
Tony

Meal Penalty rode a strong pace advantage to a gate-to-wire score.  He paid $16.60 to win.


louisville--lattice
met mile--divine park/all/1,2,5--trifetca
gamely--kitten
matt smith

Louisville: (1) Lattice
Arazi

For today, look out for Tranduction Gold on the front end in The Louisville. He looks to be the only "real" speed and can lite it up at over 15/1 by post time.
monmouthisajoke

Louisville Handicap --
LATTICE is the way to go here. I've followed this horse closely since he broke his maiden. You know when you find a horse that has that competitive spirit? The kind that always fight back, and seem to thrive from a challenge? He is a great example. I made the biggest win bet of my life on him in the American Derby at AP last year (paid $9.60). After the winter off, A. Stall has been cautious in bringing him back. Two big fields, a small stake and an alw at KEE. He's outrun his three yr-old numbers, without getting a victory. That is what I want to see, plus his odds will be helped because of not winning.
He should get the distance (DI = 1.80   CD = 0.50 ), and this is a sub-par graded field.
Best Bet Today:
CD 9th
This turf sprint OC/Alw is chalk full of hard trying geldings and one horse. I personally saw one of these entrants last year at Del Mar. That would be INDIAN ASHTON. He swept into town from Florida for the Wesley Ward and simply put a stamp on himself as a force in this minor division. After losing by a nose to Ballistic Heat in a race he should've won, he went ahead and won two straight against older (including Monterrey Jazz) in the easiest of fashions. Without a doubt Ward decided to hit the brakes on this well-bred gelding (Tribal Rule out of a Bertrando mare-105k 2yr purchase). Possibly the announcement of a new BC Turf Sprint race helped him decide to focus with all his skill on preparing this horse to peak late in '08. After starting the year in April at BM, and a tough loss to Bonfante, he shipped to CD for the Aegeon Turf Sprint. He tried to give a shot to a No. Cal. rider, but that have played a part in the terrible break in that race. After breaking desperately last, he shoul've had no shot. But, he battled gamely to challenge down the lane, and predictably ran out of gas. So, now he places him in an Alw, w/ an excellent turf jock (E. Trujillo) who has just happened to have won with 21 of 64 starters for Ward since the start of '07. Just like Lattice yesterday, this new 4 year-old has topped his 3 year-old numbers already without winning a race. A perfect sign of a top effort on the way, and possibly at playable odds.
Calibob

Lattice handled the added distance without much fuss.  He paid $7.40 to win.  Transduction Gold ran a big, big race at big, big odds.  He paid $23.80 to place after setting the pace.  Calibob's best bet won on Sunday.  mattsmith's trifecta in the Metropolitan Handicap returned $115.50.


Selections-Saturday, May 24th
Arlington Park
Race 1
7 Thousandkissesdeep
2 Starlet Sky
Race 3
6 Rotary
Race 10
7 Budda pass
Monmouth
Race 9
Buddy's Humor
Race6 #1 Ballroom Queen
Race8 #5 Indescribable
chicago gerry

chicago gerry picked several live horses this weekend including Ballroom Queen ($16.60), Buddy's Humor ($8.80) at Monmouth, and the cold exacta ($22.40) in the opener at Arlington.

4th-4-VICTORIANA goes from an Allowance win at Keeneland to a 50K stake at Arlington, BUT THE ALLOWANCE HAD A BIGGER PURSE! One of 2 with "outstanding" polysire (other is 1-Featherbed) and at 6/1 may offer value (Throwing the Pletcher chalk out, boxing 1/4/6 in the exacta, and trying to catch a bit of a price in a 6 horse race)
Stephen Taylor

Victorianna paid $8.80 to win at Arlington, and the exacta with the #1 returned $35.80. 

Berkeley (Golden Gate)- hardknocking MCCANN'S MOJAVE gets the nod here. He likes GG's Tapeta track and should sit right behind the pace of
Our Partner and Desert Code.
Met Mile-When Commentaor gets challenged up front he gets beat. Today promises plenty of company up front. Kiss the Kid, First Defence and Divine Park all promise to keep big C company. I think all but DIVINE PARK will crumble under the pace.
Honor the Hero Turf Express (Canterbury)- A bit off the beaten path but my turf sprint "crush" runs here in LOOKINFORTHESECRET. Should win easily. Look for this horse in the BC Turf Sprint later in the year.
cayman01

The MtropltH G-1, I really feel #4 Divine Park is the winner here. McLaughlin is just a favorite trainer of mine. Riley, don't take offense to that as your dad is very high on my trainer list as well.
johnnyz

Classy veteran McCann's Mojave took the Berkeley at $8.20.  Divine Park took advantage of the hot pace to win the Met at $6.50.  Lookinforthesecret scored as the chalk at Canterbury.

Met Mile (Monday 5/26/08, Belmont Park, Race 10) --> 1. Divine Park 2. Commentator
PGM

Divine Park ran down a game Commentator for PGM's cold exacta.

Shoemaker Mile
Daytona looks sharp for Hendricks, and should control things up front.
Prescious Kitten
vicstu

Daytona pressed and pounced to victory in the Shoemaker.  Precious Kitten got the jump on the closers in the Gamely.


10th Race
7-Buddha Pass
meadowlake59

Buddha Pass got it done in the tenth at Arlington on Saturday.

Also like Value Stream @ Bel R4.
Steve V

Value Stream scored at Belmont on Sunday.

Looking for Frankel to score today with Giant Gizmo.
rr

Giant Gizmo continues to improve for Frankel, and he looked good at Lone Star.

Race 5: Military Major looks strong as the chalk for Levine/Bravo in this $16K claimer. Levine winning at a mere 50% so far this meet. Blackfeet looked horrible in last two, but has the back class to surprise these for Seewald. Whoopi Again has the speed to kick clear early. Throw in Cool Cat Interview for the hell of it.
James Mc.

Military Major scored for Levine and Bravo, and was claimed by John Rigattieri. 



***

Question-
Play Woodbine a bit and noticed a horse running in the 2nd out of Patrol. Owner is Ramon Dominguez trained by Sandra Dominguez. Didn't Ramon Dominguez used to ride Patrol occasionally. Don't remember ever seeing a jockey as an owner.
illiniwes

It's a different Ramon Dominguez than the rider.  Ramon Dominguez, the jockey, rode Patrol once - to a win in the Nick Shuk Memorial at Delaware on July 1, 2002 at Delaware.

***

Anyone have any information on Trainer, David Prine. He put over Halation in Belmont's 5th on Sat. Paid $146 for the win, did catch the show price. Can't ignore Samyn-on-the-green! Anyway, just wanted to know if he has come from a top barn or was the understudy to a top trainer. We need to be ready, he might put one over at the Spa.
chessplayer

Please read this excellent piece on David Prine from the NYRA website:

http://nyra.com/belmont/stories/May242008.shtml

***

Hi Dan-
Could you tell me what Alonso Quinonez's ROI in CA is?  Seems like he wins with an unusually high number of bombs. 
B

You're right about Quinonez booting home price horses.  Here are his lifetime statistics in California:

Bay Meadows:  1 start, 0 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds, $0.00 ROI
Del Mar:  157 starts, 18 wins, 11 seconds, 18 thirds, $3.19 ROI
Fairplex - 61 starts, 10 wins, 8 seconds, 10 thirds, $1.68 ROI
Hollywood Spring 2008 - 52 starts, 9 wins, 3 seconds, 2 thirds, $5.37 ROI
Hollywood Fall 2007 - 105 starts, 14 wins, 10 seconds, 11 thirds, $2.60 ROI
Hollywood Spring 2007 - 12 starts, 1 win, 1 second, 1 third, $3.35 ROI
Santa Anita Winter 2007 - 244 starts, 23 wins, 23 seconds, 31 thirds, $2.00 ROI
Oak Tree 2007 - 95 starts, 8 wins, 8 seconds, 10 thirds, $1.97 ROI

***

Dan,
Speaking of Storm Flag Flying's two year old- what ever happened to all of the good mares of '02-'04, Sightseek, Stellar Jayne, Bird Town, Ashado and Azeri?  Have they produced anyone to watch for this summer and fall?
It might be soon but I will also be looking out for foals out of Megahertz, Moscow Burning, Filmmaker, Happy Ticket and Fleet Indian.
Rogi


Sightseek
2006:  Striking Example, illy by Empire Maker
2007:  colt by Giant's Causeway (died)
2008:  colt by A.P. Indy

Stellar Jayne was bred to Storm Cat this year.

Bird Town
2005:  colt by Empire Maker (died)
2006:  Elusive Bird, filly by Elusive Quality
2007:  colt by Ghostzapper
2008:  colt by Bernardini

Ashado
2007:  colt by Storm Cat
2008:  bred to Storm Cat

Azeri
2006:  barren (bred to Storm Cat)
2007:  colt by A.P. Indy
2008:  filly by Giant's Causeway

Megahertz:
2007:  Causeithertz, colt by Giant's Causeway
2008:  filly by Bernardini

Film Maker:
2008:  colt by Storm Cat

Happy Ticket:
2008:  colt by Distorted Humor

Fleet Indian:
2008:  Storm 'n Indian, colt by Storm Cat

The Sightseek and Bird Town foals may run this year.

***

i am a big doug o'neill fan... and his 2 year old filly yesterday looked the real deal... could you get me the beyer for her on that race.. and alsohis other good looking 2 year old who broke his maiden in style "azul leon"?
Joe Peterson

Trifecta King received a 79 in the Cinderella Stakes.  Azul Leon earned a 69 Beyer for his debut win.

***

Hey Dan.  Love the blog.  Any chance for a BSF for Theregoesjojo who debuted for Ken Mcpeek in Monday's 7th at Churchill.  I thought it was a very impressive debut for this 2 year old.  Thanks.
Mike

Theregoesjojo received a 75 Beyer Speed Figure.

***

Dan,
Do you have Wasserman's Buyer in the FSN Handicap at Emd on Sunday?
Clay

Wasserman received a 98 Beyer.

***

Dan:
Since Divine Park got a 109, can you give us the Beyer for Manteca's win in the third?
James Mc.

Manteca received a career-high 88.

***

Dan-
I've noticed a 3 year old colt named Propensity has worked twice with Hostess at Saratoga.  5/8 they worked 5f in 1:05.68 , and 5/16 they worked 4f in 50.47.  Propensity has not shown much in 4 starts on the turf so far.  Would you consider this a horse who is about to improve dramatically next out?  Or could it be a case of they just wanted a slow horse to have a slow breeze with Hostess.
tbone

Propensity, a colt by Victory Gallop, is 0-3 on the dirt, but has run against some good horses (Samba Rooster, Wesley, etc.), and has been the victim of poor starts in all three of his races.  His dam is a half-sister to the good turf horses I Rejoice and Curtain Raiser.  I'm intrigued that Bond is working him in company with Hostess, and it may show his intent to run Propensity on the grass in the near future.  Give him a long look at what should be a big price.

***
C,
For whatever reason, I would agree that FD was not up on Commentator through the early part of that race, and was not "pushing" Commentator or engaged in an early speed duel, regardless of how many times the turf press mischaracterises it as so. Was he unable to match stride with that one, or simply rating 1-3 lengths behind? I do not know, perhaps Commentator was the faster horse Monday. However, FD has run faster fractions prior to that race, and whether he could not or would not press early is kind of beside the point I was making. Namely, if he would not or could not press early, FD should have waited like any other horse stalking the pace and move with 2 furlongs remaining if the leader was not coming back...Instead the horse is asked for his run and moved to the outside a full 3 furlongs before the finish. Makes no sense to challenge the leader this early in the race. He was still close enough that Commentator was not going anywhere, but far enough off the lead that once FD was asked for his run he would expend much energy to simply catch up to Commentator. Why not wait until the quarter pole and see if the horse is not tiring and coming back to your horse?The energy wasted to mount a charge before the stretch was wasted energy. Bad decision. And this all played into the hands of the very capable Divine Park, who simply inherited the lead with under a furlong to go as Commentator fought gamely but simply had nothing left for the final half furlong.
Dan,
FD stuck his nose in front of Commentator well before the quarter mile pole. How on earth could either FD, or Commentator, look like the winner at that point-with more than a quarter of a mile left and the entire stretch? Over 2 furlongs is a long time in a mile race.
vicstu

Couldn't disagree with you more about the Met Mile.  Castellano knows how to read the form.  He wasn't going to outsprint Commentator for the early lead, and the goal was to sit second and pounce on the turn.  If he guns from the gate, he's going to be cooked (Commentator isn't rating for anybody), and loses all chance.  So Castellano breaks beautifully from the gate, extricates himself from a tight spot on the rail to press outside, and never lets Commentator out of his sights while not getting caught up in a duel.  He's never more than a length off the lead, and the horse cruises up on his own power to confront Commentator.  What's Castellano to do?  He has only one true closer to outfinish (Divine Park), and a speed horse in front of him that usually spits it when challenged.  The goal is to put away the speed, and open up on the closer (i.e. utilize the tactical advantage his mount's speed affords him).  Why wait for the closer to catch up, and thus turn the race into a two furlong sprint on even terms?  Why wait and allow Commentator a breather along with a chance to get brave?  What happened to "let the horse run?"  The bottom line is that First Defence was terrible on Monday.  Not only did he go from 60 to 0 (First Defence is under a hand ride turning for home, and looks like he's going to blow by Commentator) when looked in the eye by Commentator, but he couldn't outfinish the 80-1 Council Member for fourth!  The stretch collapse was so drastic that you have to wonder if the horse bled or injured himself.  Or, he hung like a chandelier.

***

dan- Could you post Thor's Daughters beyer from the Ohio Valley Handicap on Tuesday at Mountaineer. Thanks.
tbone

Thor's Daughter earned an 81 Beyer.

***

Does anyone have current par times at Hollywood Park or where I can get them without researching all the races?
Lane

Handicappers looking for Beyer pars can subscribe to "Simulcast Daily" on the drf.com site.

***

PS Dan while I'm on a roll perhaps you can post the pps of an old time 1/9 east coast disaster - Lakeway...i remember her loss at Saratoga and made a habit out of tossing the west coasters back in the day :)
jlove

Download Lakeway.pdf

***

Back tomorrow with some stakes opinions, first-crop sire analysis, and more.

Take care,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman on May 29, 2008 | Permalink

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Comments

Dan,
"...he hung like a chandelier"!! Was that you or the ghost of Clem Florio talking???? :-)
You can start your freshman sire discussion with Lion Heart - another winner just now, 2nd TS Cameron Crazies, in CD4. Quick Quiz - the winner is owned by:
a. Dean Smith
b. Bobby Hurley
c. Gary Williams
d. Norm Sloan
e. Bobby Knight

Blue Horseshoe,
I agree with you - the same people that wouldn't buy a "penny stock" will now spend $500K for a piece of the horse ownership action? I joked on one of the CHATs that Big Brown may become Curlin2 - he will have to continue racing while the owners are in the courtroom! HEY...That actually wouldn't be so bad!

SRVegas,
I was away at my son's college graduation at Brown - here is a picture after his last rugby game against the alumni Friday:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/formblog/2534151062/sizes/l/
Still no luck selling our house & we are moving into our condo 2nd week of July!! Gotta win some more multi-race wagers to pay for the Bridge Loan!

scianc22,
You put your life back together at a time when it could have easily fallen apart - you may be in a slump in your handicapping career but you will always be a BIG WINNER in my eyes!!!!

Justin, Sobhy and Mr Z,
Thanks so much for all joining us!! And thanks for the maiden offer - if you give us a heads up on the 2yo 1st-year starters, I will try to handicap those races here (and no...I won't always pick your horse - in fact, you are likely much, much better off if I pick against your horses!!) We are a big family here (although we often do put the "fun in dysfunctional"!!)
I do have a question for you regarding a 3yo maiden, Dance To Market, a FTS in a 15K maiden claimer at Churchill (CD7) tomorrow. Why go for a tag, and at that...such a small tag, so soon? This son of Yonaguska (and also HB to Canadian stakes winner Verne's Baby) originally was purchased for $99K at ONTSEP06 and then RNA'ed for $95K at OBSMAR07 - now he's only offered for $15K? Why not give him a chance or two in an msw? THANKS!!!
BTW, I also second Uncle Steve's motion about Lauren Stich as a pedigree consultant for your stable (although I was secretly hoping you'd find a spot for me on your team as well...as the Official Winner's Circle Zayat representative - you can fly me around the country to pose with each of your horses - my dentist tells me I have a great smile!!!) :-)

Good luck today!!!

Posted by: Alan on May 29, 2008 at 03:09 PM

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Dan,

Thank you very much for keeping tallies on all of us handicappers. It's got to take a lot of time to rehash everyone's winning picks, along with a customary compliment which you tend to sprinkle in. Thanks alot.

As for new sires... Is it just me or is 2nd crop Sire EMPIRE MAKER a pretty big disappointment so far?
He has the highest stud fee at 100k, and sits at 18th in the rankings. His best so far (and only stakes winner) has been Roman Emperor and his rnrs/wnrs is 38/11.
I remember the fanfare when his first yearlings hit KEE in '06, and I wonder if there are alot of big buyers who perhaps regret their leap of faith on this guy. What is your opinion of his runners?
I have to say that, considering the quality of mares he has been given, standing at Vinery in FL for 5k, there must be no better value in the business than REPENT. He's currently 3rd in earnings, w/ 3 stakes winners and 53/21 ratio. His only flaw thus far (surprisingly) has been not 1 turf winner yet! I think he's had about 21 starters now.

As for new 1st crop sires.. do you have an opinion on Bowman's Band?

Posted by: Calibob on May 29, 2008 at 03:10 PM

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Dan,
You're killin' me w/ your kindness. You gave me some props for the 1 winner (who was 6/5) that I gave out this weekend out of the say 7 or so I posted.
I had some bad info this past week combined w/ some bad luck- Hopefully this weekend will be better.
But, thanks anyways I guess.

Posted by: Steve V. on May 29, 2008 at 04:10 PM

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It is easy for us to forget that most trainers are hardworking fools who love their horses. Reading the story on David Prine and what he has overcome, and earlier on Barry Abrams battling cancer should remind us that not all trainers are pouring bicarb down their throats or standing there with a syringe.

Speaking of Barry Abrams, I have been closely watching the mares he breeds to Unusual Heat. A very high percentage of them are NOT from the Native Dancer line, in fact many are foreign mares. By injecting new blood I think he is creating a very durable crop of runners. One of their mares is a New Zealander by the name of Penpont. Look at her pedigree, there are few namjes you will recognize. Now let's take a look at the runners from the Unusual Heat - Penpont breedings:

Golden Doc A ($483K)
Master Heat ($143K)
Rushen Heat ($82K)
Solid Fuel ($168K)
Unusual Suspect ($470K)

Not a bad group, considering they are from a $12K sire and an obscure Kiwi mare whose race record was 1 for 17. All 5 made it to the track and 4 are graded stakes winners. Very durable, three are still running (Golden Doc A, Rushen Heat and Unusual Suspect).

Here is another mare they have bred to UH, Bel Air Belle:

America's Friend 2004 ($85K)
Bel Air Sizzle 2005 ($274K)

Or Silverstrike a double Bold Ruler cross mare:

Unusual Strike 2005 ($400)
Christiana's Heat 2004($69K)
Nikkissilverjet 2003 (NR)
Julie's Sugardaddy 2002 ($229K)
Spencer's Magic 2001 ($238K)

How can a statebred minor league operation keep pumping out horses that make it to the track, run in stakes and are durable as all get out???

Gotta go, wife is giving me the "we have to leave NOW" frown. Sorry but the woman scares me. See you all next week!

Posted by: Steve T on May 29, 2008 at 04:19 PM

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Steve V,

Here's your chance to own a low mileage Unusual Heat filly, Christiana's Heat. She is running tomorrow in the 2nd, an AOC-62K, and she is in for a tag. She is running against another UH, Runforthemoneybaby. Think about standing in the winner's circle at Saratoga with everyone saying "Who the hell is Unusual Heat?" and "she has won on the main track and turf too!"

Posted by: Steve T on May 29, 2008 at 04:27 PM

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Riley,
Congratulations!!!
You And I Forever just broke his maiden today in CD7!!!

Posted by: Alan on May 29, 2008 at 04:30 PM

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Steve V,

Oh and California Blaze, Quan's Girl, Heated Rebel, Half Hot and Hotrod Kelly just won at Golden Gate, so now UH's have won on dirt, grass, Poly, Cushion and Tapeta!

Posted by: Steve T on May 29, 2008 at 04:33 PM

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hey dan,
i as wanting to know if u knew when Gio Ponti is going 2 return 2 the races. he was undefeated going into the juvy turf last year and had no running room in the stretch. i checked the worktab and hes working steadily now.
thanks

Posted by: Pmal on May 29, 2008 at 04:34 PM

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May 29: Belmont Race 9 - 19 MTP

#8 Asacha ... (currently at 6-1). Was a banker in my P4 last week but didn't run a step. UNLOADING....

Posted by: Arazi on May 29, 2008 at 05:02 PM

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Alan,

Just like you I look forward to hearing from the Z's about their upcoming 2 year-olds.
Just a little note on the question you asked them about the 15k MdnClm running tomorrow. As much as we all want the "inside info" (I myself probably asked too much about Wolfson last week), I guess we do have to remember that in this business, and especially in the claiming ranks, trainers & owners are playing high-stakes poker, complete with bluffing and all kinds of false signals.
I guess I just wanted to say that if you don't get much of a response to your question, it may be simply that the requested information is top secret :)

Posted by: Calibob on May 29, 2008 at 05:09 PM

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Alan,

Thanks so much. And congrats to you too because I know your a fan of his. He ran super last time out at Churchill on Derby day getting a pretty big number in a key race. He was impressive today and hopefully we can stretch him out a bit next time whenever that may be. Hopefully you had a nice juicy bet on him!

Posted by: Riley on May 29, 2008 at 05:19 PM

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Here is a heart-warming video with a nice song and plenty of photos of that jewel NASHOBA'S KEY.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LKjSm4JW7s

Posted by: Calibob on May 29, 2008 at 05:32 PM

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Guess I shouldn't have said that "she didn't run a step" because today she did ran few steps :(

Maybe that's why they say "Be carefull what you wish for, you might get it"

** Asacha and Kiss The Kidd added to the watch list **

(Never give up on your horses .. a wise man once told me)

Posted by: Arazi on May 29, 2008 at 05:46 PM

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Steve T. I noticed a post at 4:19 pm that stated you had to leave (your wife was giving you the LOOK)!!!! I then noticed you had 2 other posts (the last at 4:33 pm. I hope the last two were from a mobile access laptop or they truly may have been your LAST posts (if your wife is anything like mine).

Dale

Posted by: Dale on May 29, 2008 at 06:08 PM

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What was I thinking? That's what happens when you trust your memory in this business...

How could I possibly remember "Asacha" instead of "Scoot On By" that I singled in P4 last week?

Oh I know why? Because I threw her out on May 18th (R10) after lengthy deliberation... so I gotta try to forget the names of my throwouts as soon as I can.

:(

Posted by: Arazi on May 29, 2008 at 06:08 PM

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Steve T,
I'll tell him to check that one out- He looks everyday out there- we'll see what he thinks (you don't have to sell me on UH- he's the City Zip of the west). Oh by the way, look for his next few claims to be back w/ the "magic man" Mike Mitchell.

Posted by: Steve V. on May 29, 2008 at 07:05 PM

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Apropos of nothing, I see from the DRF article that Dutrow is attacking John Servis now. Servis has way too much class to respond in kind.

I want BB to win, I really do. I think he's a great horse, and I want to see it happen for the first time in three decades.

Still, if he doesn't get it done and Casino Drive or someone else takes it, my mourning period for the Triple Crown that might have been is going to last all of about 15 seconds.

Posted by: James Mc. on May 29, 2008 at 07:49 PM

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On Empire Maker and sires in general, it is my belief that horses that have their career highlight in the Belmont Stakes do not do well at stud, largely because there are not many maiden and N1x races written for horses at 9f or longer in this country......As for Repent, I like him a lot and I don't think the crowd has really caught on to him. I remember Repent very nearly won the Travers on a very long layoff; he was a fantastic competitor.

Posted by: Tony Kelso on May 29, 2008 at 07:55 PM

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HOL Race 7 5/29
----------------

Well, I'm feeling pretty good, having accomplished another swoop & cash mission :)

GINGER POP has been called by Dan Hendricks his "Del Mar Oaks winner". With the early scratch of Kazamira, and the late scratch of another speed horse, the race suddenly looked up for the taking by this exciting 3 year-old. I went over to the OTB to bet her WP, but with that late scratch I moved it to a heavy W bet. I love to see The Mig get chances with young horses like this. He is very even-keeled, never panics, and has a kind of veteran touch with anxious ones.
That being said, the way GP popped out of the gate today, and went 24&change, there was no way anyone was going to come close to her. Especially since I disliked the 2nd and 3rd choice, I felt very confident with my bet.

I wonder if A. Solis is feeling some regrets today. After riding Ginger Pop in her first two races, including a nose maiden win, he bailed on her and Hendricks to ride a shipper for Gallagher two back named Miss Singhsix. Ginger Pop won that race with the Mig and now is building a little resume for herself.

Congrats to Mig and Dan both... By the way, if you happe4n to read this Dan, I know your brother J. We are "dog park buds" :)

Posted by: Calibob on May 29, 2008 at 08:09 PM

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Dear Steve Wolfson,
my dad named the horse wolfson in honor of his mentor the philanthropist and financier, Zev W. Wolfson.

Alan, the reason we entered dance to market, we believe he is a talented horse who doesn't fit our program.

Posted by: Justin Zayat on May 29, 2008 at 08:10 PM

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Robert SD, you can email your ideas to my dads email. Jazz@zayatstables.com

Laura, please forward your contact information to sobhy@zayatstables.com

Posted by: Justin Zayat on May 29, 2008 at 08:15 PM

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Alan

Welcome home and thanks for the picture...
I even saw a part of you in it!
What a hansome family you have.
Congratulations on your Son's Graduation.

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on May 29, 2008 at 08:50 PM

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scianc22

So nice to hear from you.
I agree with you that this Formblog can be very Theraputic, and one can live vicariously through those who post, and be happy with that.
I know I have.
I wish you, your wife and daughter all the best.
...and stop by more often to say Hello"

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on May 29, 2008 at 09:03 PM

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Anyone, is it worth trying to figure pace pars and a track profile for the synthetics or are they run too much like grass races to make it a legit number? In resaerching Hollywood's current meet I'm noticing low to mid-level claimers running the same times or slightly better times than the high claimers, allowance, and stakes with the only exceptions at 7F and 7.5F where allowance are consistently faster than claimers. Any advice with this would be appreciated. Thanks.

Posted by: Lane on May 29, 2008 at 09:24 PM

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Mr. Sonbol and Mr. Zayat,

Thanks for posting and being part of our blog world here.

UH and Penpoint:RE:
Penpoint has is very closely related to Fred Hoopers line OLYMPIA and Crozier which was a foundation mare for his breeding.

And very sad about N. Key, what can I say or reflect that anyone already hasn't.
How tragically taken...

Have good break Stevet...

Posted by: larryk on May 29, 2008 at 09:26 PM

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Justin,
Thanks you very much and good luck tomorrow!! I hope he does well...for you and potentially for his new owners! It must be gutsy to pull the trigger on a FTS - I don't think I have the intestinal fortitude to do it! If you asked my wife about my reluctance to put a FTS in a maiden claimer, she'd say "That's just Alan - he won't throw away an old pair of ratty socks!" And she's right!!

Riley,
Yes, I won money on You and I Forever...but please remember that despite some handicapping success in my life, I'm really much more a fan than a gambler. Watching a son of ApIndy out of You be successful represents what I love so much about our sport - I remember watching and winning on both of those stars and now I get to watch and win on their baby!! The fact that your dad trains the horse only adds to my enjoyment of the success!! Once again, congratulations!!

SRVegas,
That was me in the back of the picture trying to "peek through" - my family is a bunch of hams. Without getting too off-topic, here are my children at the graduation reception, supposedly on their best behavior:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/formblog/2534605595/sizes/l/

Posted by: Alan on May 29, 2008 at 09:29 PM

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Interesting to see chop chop back in the winners circle...in my eyes...one day he was riding wills way in the travers...then monarchos in the derby...and then...poof...lost in a sea of jockeys...nobody and i mean nobody whips like this guy down the stretch...so two questions to the experts...a)do you think the whipping is effective or does it rile you a bit and b) why do you think he went into exile...it seemed like a steep fall from grace for my favorite peruvian jockey...appreciate your thoughts...

And of course I should add that I keyed chopchop in my pick 3 and made out okay :)

Hey Justin/Sobhy,

Which horse are you most eagerly awaiting to hit the race track? Alaazo? Just curious with such a fleet what the flavor of the day was...i have to imagine its exciting picking your spots but even more so when you have high expectations...just to be clear...im not looking for any guarantees just wondering who you are excited about in the near future...

Thanks,
Jlove

Posted by: jlove on May 29, 2008 at 09:35 PM

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Calibob, do you mean Empire Maker has only one stakes winner total or this year? He actually has three overall (I think)-Roman Emperor, G2 winner Mushka, and G1 winner Country Star. And he hasn't been the hottest sire yet on the track, but his babies really seemed to hit their stride late last year and I've seen a few of his babies that have won lately (I read the TDN). He's got Acoma, a half sister to Arch who has won her last two (allowance and maiden) and runs in the Dogwood. I wouldn't write him off just yet!

Posted by: Alex P on May 29, 2008 at 10:57 PM

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Justin -

Thanks so much for your father's e-mail address. I just sent out my ideas and look forward to his thoughts.

- Robert

(aka RobertSD)

Posted by: RobertSD on May 29, 2008 at 11:15 PM

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Dan,

I am still thinking a bit about the science, numbers, math, and engineering that exists in the horse racing industry and am trying to develop some kind of perspective as it relates to handicapping.

I started thinking about it after watching two men, highly trained in math and numbers, reach the finals of World Championship Poker.

As a side note, one the the finalists had shoulder length hair and wore a cowboy hat and coat. The coat looked to be made of leather, and went all the way down to the top of his boots; kind of like you might see a cowboy wear in the late 1860's in a saloon in Deadwood, South Dakota, or a coat Chuck Norris would wear in 'Texas Ranger'.

I wondered why a poker player would wear a coat like that; and I can't see that it could be all that comfortable.

In any event, I read that Big Brown was tested and had a very good Bio-Mechanics Score.

I found some of the things Equix tests on its website for evaluating Stride Performance. I thought it was interesting and have listed the tests below:

1.Stride Length
2.Transition Timing
3.Airbourne Phase Time
4.Average Length of Step
5. Any Step Length
6. Airborne Phase Time
7.Average Time a Foot is on the ground.
8.Distance covered over each foot
9.Amount of wasted motion
10.Inefficiency due to vertical power loss, Poor trajectory.

Dan,
On another topic, I was assume that there is an organization that certifies thoroughbreds in the same way
the American kennel Club certifies dogs. I was wondering what the name of that organization is.

Also, is it true that a thoroughbred, to be certified, cannot be artificially inseminated. And, to your knowledge, is there any language regarding the certification of Thoroughbreds, that specifically addresses the concept of cloning?

Posted by: chicago gerry on May 30, 2008 at 12:08 AM

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Dan,

Saw in your sign off you were going to post thoughts on first crop sires tomorrow.

A freshmen sire I really like is Even The Score (Unbridled's Song). He stands @ Millenium Farms in Kentucky for 7,500k. Will add a disclaimer to that, as I think ETS's children will shine much more @3 or older. Any thoughts?

Posted by: johnnyz on May 30, 2008 at 12:23 AM

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Dan;

I hate to go low-brow here, but I can't help but snicker at the name of the gelding in Hollywood Park's 6th race today (5/29/08), the #3 horse, Russian Liquor. Checkout his parents (snort). Sorry. And another thing, how does the Jockey Club let names like that get through? Sorry again. Now onto more high-brow items"...

Calibob;

You are correct, as the 7th at Hollywood Park was a "cash-and-swoop" mission. Well done, sir.

Scianc22;

Good to hear from you. I trust all is well. Please keep fighting the good fight. I suspect that you have the mettle.

vicstu;

Thank you for your kind words, and yes, I was able to come to terms with everything, and it has made me a better father than anyone who knew me (including my mother) would have guessed. Thank you, friend.

And to all;

Although Mr. Dutro's comments regarding Smarty Jones may be rough, it could be argued that he has a point. I do not choose to second-guess jockeys or trainers, but I respect comments that bring to-the-fore legitimate criticisms. His (Mr. Dutrow's) comment is somewhat legitimate as far as I am concerned given that;
1.) Big Brown will probably win the Triple Crown; and
2.) In hindsight, his comment has merit, (unfortunately) but only in hindsight.

I am still to-this-day, trying to resolve the fact that Smarty Jones dodn't win the Belmont Stakes, and the Triple Crown. When I read Mr. Dutro's comments, sure, I bristled, but he may have a point.

Good night folks.
Van Savant

Posted by: Van Savant on May 30, 2008 at 12:39 AM

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Chicago Gerry;

Have you ever read "Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohammer? If not, then please invest the time and effort. It will enlighten you to a world of mathematical complexities that you never thought possible as it concerns thoroughbred horse racing.

Take the challenge. It is, after-all a long summer.

I am oft to remark that the longest summer I ever spent was reading "Modern Pace Handicapping". Of course, that was back in '99, and I have read it three times.

It looks like it is going to be another long summer, so "I guess I got that going me for me..."

Posted by: Van Savant on May 30, 2008 at 12:48 AM

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jlove,
Chavez's fall from grace is more the result of losing clients rather than skill. When he returned from his injury a few years ago, he switched agents. The story I heard is that his wife took over that role and was not very popular on the backstretch.

Posted by: C on May 30, 2008 at 02:38 AM

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Alan, SRVegas, Van
Thanks for the kind words. Its awesome to come home from a rough night at work and read your comments. Its a nice shot in the arm. I know I havent been posting much but I read eveyday. Sometimes getting through one of Vicstu's posts makes me to tired to type, lol. Im just kidding Vic. Its definitely been hard but Im grinding it out. There have been some slip ups but I just keep gettting up and dusting myself off. Hopefully I can have a good Belmont day and make a decent showing in the NHC tourny to get my confidence back.

Alan and Van, good luck to you guys next week and good luck to all the other Bloggers that are in the NHC next week.

Posted by: scianc22 on May 30, 2008 at 03:28 AM

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Alan and C,
Oh yeah, I was thinking of maybe taking a trip to Belmont on Fathers Day. I would love to meet up with you guys if thats ok and buy a round. Let me know if you guys are ok with that.

Posted by: scianc22 on May 30, 2008 at 03:30 AM

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Alex P,

You're right. I was going by the Bloodhorse rankings, and I failed to notice that the rankings are based on 2008 only. I need to take another look before making a conclusive statement like that.

Thanks

Posted by: CaliBob on May 30, 2008 at 04:08 AM

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Van Savaant and Mudhound Mojo,

We may not know each other in a physically based geographical sense, but we know enough of each other through our posts to relate and offer a hand when we sense someone is going through something which is very important and may need support or encouragement. Thanks for responding to my post, and I am glad each of you made your peace in your own way.

Chicago Gerry,

Did you read the interview with Big Brown's breeder Gary Knapp? He is a big proponent of Equix analysis for breeding purposes. I noticed you were referencing that in your last post about stride performance analysis and biometric feedback. If you did not read his interview at Bloodhorse.com, link to the transcript here, as he answered questions Thursday at 11 AM:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/talkinhorses/GK052908.asp

Re: Dutrow and Smarty Jones

I think I may have a little different take on Dutrow's comments, and like Van Savaant I think Dutrow's brashness sometimes gives me pause. But in this case if you read the context in which Dutrow stated what he did about Smarty Jones and Servis, he was specifically asked by a reporter what, if anything, led to Smarty Jones not winning the triple crown. Race riding by Bailey and co. on Eddington and Rock Hard Ten? Or perhaps Smarty could not get 1-1/2 miles. To which Dutrow said it was not the distance or the race riding by the jocks that did Smarty in, and then he went on to say that the horse left some of his Belmont race on the track at Pimlico, and there was no need to pour it on for an 11 length win with the Belmont still on tap. He also hinted that training SJ at Phila Park on a sealed muddy track was not wise either.

In other words, Dutrow was asked point blank and he responded in total candor, saying that Smarty Jones did not lose the Triple Crown, his inexperienced connections did. Brash? Sure. But it is the same damn thing that both Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss said on ESPN after the Preakness!
And I agree!

But then again, I thought it was ill advised trying to rate SJ behind a cheap speed horse at 12 furlongs (Purge). My grandmother would have known that Purge was coming back sooner than later, and the only way that one could "get" 12f was to set crawling fractions that would only serve to frustrate Smarty. So, it was no suprise when SJ enherited the lead with more than 6 furlongs to go. Whats more, the pace was soooo sloooow that Eddington and Rock Hard Ten had no choice but to press the pace to get Purge, and later SJ, to get a move on! A true speed horse like SJ in the Belmont always is better served going straight to the lead, ala Affirmed, Slew, Swale, IMO. SJ could have controlled the pace and been in his own stride, and could have cared less when pressed as long AS HE SET THE PACE. As it was, the pace was too slow for SJ to rate behind and then expect to seperate from the closers and stalkers. Indeed, Birdstone was less than 2 lengths behind SJ at the top of Belmont's atretch and closing...SJ on the lead could have slowed the pace and then gradually sped it up to seperate far more than 2 lengths from the slow Birdstone at the top of the stretch. But that it just my opinion. But the reason why I am even giving it is that SJ in the Belmont is still a hot button topic and I am sure many will disagree with me!

But for those who disagree with my point, I pose to you one question?
Since SJ was not "moved too early", rather, Purge merely backed up and dropped off the lead leaving SJ out front by default, flanked by ED and RHT, why do most people say Smarty was moved too soon?
SJ was 2nd and was not "moved" in the backstretch, he inherited the lead by default when Purge threw in the towel at 6 furlongs. And those two horses were sitting on his shoulder when SJ took over the lead and that crawling pace.

Its not that SJ should not have been rating in the Belmont, rather, given the cheap speed on the lead, and the slow fractions, rating 2nd was bad news because once SJ inherited the lead he would expect to run. So, not only did Elliet inherit the lead prematurely, he has to put SJ under a strong rating hold to stave off his run (which Smart fights and becomes rank). Had Purge set otherwise honest fractions, I would see no problem with SJ stalking a good pace. But not that crawl. When you rate speed at a pace that they are uncomfortable with, they expend even more energy fighting the hold and the entire thing blows up in the jock's face more often than not. This is a good example. Gomez on HS in last year's Belmont is a better example. Worse ride of 2007.

But, back to Dutrow...

In this case, Van Savaant is right. What Dutrow said is true (IMO) and I, too, am still upset of SJ losing the triple crown. Although I agree in principle with James Mc that the horse is one of a kind but the trainer makes it hard to get behind the connections. But in this case, Dutrow was simply being Dutrow. He is simply too blunt and too honest for his own good. And he strongly believes in his horse, and why shouldn't he?

Muhammed Ali talked far more trash than Dutrow does now, yet since Ali contracted Parkinson's he has become a goodwill ambassador of sorts. Hopefully, Dutrow will not need an illness to let the public see the softer, gentler side.

Dan,

If anything, FD did hang like a chandelier, however, we can agree to disagree. IMO the move was too soon, and if FD initiated the move to the outside on his own, and the chart does not say this, then Castellano should have reeled him back for another 1/16th of a mile or so. The horse has no clue whether he was running 7 or 8 panels, so why move him at the same point as he would be moved at in a 7 furlong race? And as for not letting DP close too much ground, that one was still 2+ lengths behind FD when they reached the 6 furlong mark. FD did stink up the joint when eyeballed by Commentator, but I cannot help but think that waiting to move at the quarter pole would have benefited either speed horse, while moving at 5 panels simply ensured both horses cooked themselves before the wire.

DP would have still won, most likely, but it would have been a closer race than it already was.

Posted by: vicstu on May 30, 2008 at 04:09 AM

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Alan,

Not sure if your question about the owner of Cameron Crazies was to the group in general or just Dan...if its for the group, I submit that Bobby Hurley must be the owner. After all, he races and breeds horses, and was an All ACC guard for Duke under Coach K.

Gerry,

I will let Dan elaborate, but a throughbred must use his back legs to mount a mare. No AI. It works for racing greyhounds, though.

Posted by: vicstu on May 30, 2008 at 04:14 AM

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Van Savant,

Thanks for the congrats as well as the recommendation for the book.

And as for the quote at the end, there's only thing I can say. The Dalai Lama is a generous tipper ;)

Posted by: CaliBob on May 30, 2008 at 04:20 AM

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I thought I better post this before I get attacked for saying that Smarty Jones would have relaxed more had he been sent to the lead from the start and controlled the pace in the Belmont. Notice that although the press says that Elliot sent Smarty Jones to the lead in the backstretch, the trainer and jock say that Smarty Jones refused to settle and pretty much drug Elliot to the front and took over the lead when Purge threw in the towel after 6 panels.

Elliot felt it was vital to give SJ a break early in the race, and had planned on relaxing the horse when he backed him off of the front end before the runners hit the first turn. I submit that Smarty was rank because he was being asked to rate behind a pace that was slower than he was used to. He never relaxed and then was pressed after he inherited the lead and the pace picked up dramatically as Purge dropped to dead last.

It was a combination of things that beat Smarty Jones. But, perhaps if Smarty simply controlled the pace in the Belmont he would have relaxed early on and had more in the tank. Maybe the distance alone was too much.

But my whole point was there was no benefit in the Belmont to trying the keep SJ off of the pace, as the pace was slow for 4 furlongs. SJ did not like to run slowly and could not relax under such a scenario. Speed does best at the front at 1-1/2 miles, that is, if the horse is a real speed horse.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleindex/article.asp?id=22860

Posted by: vicstu on May 30, 2008 at 05:12 AM

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Dan-
Regarding DQ's or lack thereof, I had a win bet on a horse who was 2nd at Arlington, there was an objection, and my horse was clearly bumped by the winner coming over (my horse's rear went sideways) As I patiently (well, maybe not) waited for my horse to be put up, the results were, NO CHANGE! Now I'm not familiar with all 3 stewards at Arlington, but one is Eddie Arcaro, who certainly knows what's going on at the track, so I tend to trust our steward's decisons. After I calmed down a bit I realized that the reason there was no change was simply that, in the steward's opinions (and in retrospect, the right opinion) was that the "guilty horse" would have won the race anyway. Arlington does a great job of showing video and explaining the cause if there is a DQ, but not if there's no change, so here's my simple idea:
If there's an inquiry or objection and no change,the stewards supplement the "no change" with one of 3 reasons:
1.) There was no foul
2.) The "guilty party" finished behind fouled horse anyway.
3.) While there was a foul, it did not alter the outcome of the race.
(Note that if reasons 2 or 3 are used, that in my opinion action should still be taken against the jock just as it would be if there were a change. That way you'd be penalizing the guilty, but not penalizing the "innocent bystanders" (The horseplayers who won on the race)

Posted by: Stephen Taylor on May 30, 2008 at 07:34 AM

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Riley and Justin-

there's a contest at Arlington tommorrow and your Always A Believer looks like a standout in the 7th- Since you guys post here, to be blunt I'm asking for "inside information" (Why not tell it like it is!) Is he ready or will he need the race, and what are you pointing for in the future?

Posted by: Stephen Taylor on May 30, 2008 at 07:43 AM

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Chicago Gerry,
I'm not Dan but. . .

The Jockey Club is the thoroughbred registry. Their rule book can be found at http://www.jockeyclub.com/registry.asp?section=3

AI is not allowed.

I didn't read the rule book about cloning, but I'm sure it would never be allowed. In any case cloning isn't as simple as it may seem. For one thing the life span of a clone is shortened (it's about telomeres). More importantly to the thoroughbred industry- clones have not yet reproduced performance. Even if you have the same DNA, which of those genes is expressed can't really be controlled, plus there's the whole nature vs. nurture thing. If you do a little research I'm sure you can find an article on a racing mule that was cloned (mules can't reproduce). I think there were two clones and neither ran a step. There was also a company that was cloning peoples pets (especially cats, there is some problem with dog cloning that I can't remember). They went out of business because (among other things) even though the animals DNA was identical they didn't look the same.

Posted by: ClaireS on May 30, 2008 at 08:27 AM

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With the talk about nice racemares and their progeny, wanted to let you all know that Hasili FINALLY foaled last night (she'd been about 3 weeks overdue) and delivered a healthy Empire Maker filly.

Posted by: G or G on May 30, 2008 at 08:51 AM

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I've been dismal in my maiden race picks (MAIDEN AMERICA) on Uncle Steve's website so far! Here is the "Tale of the Tape":
Race One: -$10.00
Race Two: -$3.80
Race Three: -$5.70
Race Four: -$5.60
TOTAL SO FAR: -$25.10!!!
Yesterday's "Maiden America" race was won by Cameron Crazies, who exited as I mentioned previously a potential key race (25AprKEE1.) I have found enormous success in the past using this angle, particularly for 2yos, but also for maidens of all ages. Likely, much of the reason is just the fact that these horses now have at least "one race under their belt" - but the next-out success still doesn't carry over for all maiden races, even early 2yo races. Here are a few maiden key races that I have identified so far this year:
25AprKEE1: Cameron Crazies as the most recent success.
10AprKEE6: ...AND 2ndplace finisher Spring Elusion is running in BEL2 tomorrow.
30AprHOL2 (this was a 2yo maiden claimer!!...but check out even how the winner did in Cinderella Stakes this past weekend!!): ...AND 4th place finisher Malusita is running in HOL4 Sunday.

Dan,
BEL2 tomorrow is a very interesting msw -> not only does it have "key racer" Spring Elusion, but look at the breeding/sibs of the Phipps/Shug FTS entry! Throw in a Garcia/McLaughlin FTS, a Mineshaft 2ndTS and a just-missed last-out Tagg/Coa/TracyFarmer filly and you have quite a maiden race!!

I also have a selection from the same race that you and Mike used as The Race of The Day for later today. It is my "HI DE HI DE HI DE HI" LONGSHOT PICK OF THE DAY!!:
BEL8 NbleNashua75K (8.5f 3up): #8 Classic Park (ML:20/1) -> 2nd off layoff for this mostly turf 5yo, but he's won state-bred dirt and turf stakes since 2yos - including the 9fT NYStallion stakes (CAB CALLOWAY DIVISION) on the Spa lawn in 2006. Will be closing into hopefully a contested pace with a jockey switch to under-the-radar Rajiv Maragh. I'll excuse the horse's 1st-back effort 3wks ago - his worst races have always been on yielding turf - no issue with that today!!
Inlcude the #1/1A Galluscio entry of Dr V's Magic and Organizer (ML:3/1) and closer #2 Shuffling Madness (ML:6/1) in your exotics. (WPS#8; EXBX#1,2,8)

Good luck today!!

Posted by: Alan on May 30, 2008 at 09:36 AM

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Belmont May 30: Late Pick 4

Race 6: J J's Prophet, Maven

Race 7: Slipstone, Whateverwillbwillb

Race 8: Stuf Muffin, Dr. V's Magic

Race 9: Our Montana Dream, Savor It

Posted by: Arazi on May 30, 2008 at 11:45 AM

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StephenTaylor,
I couldn't tell how far back that story went, but Eddie Arcaro died about 10 years ago.

scianc,
Sounds good.

vicstu,
I'm with Dan here. Commentator was faster out of the gate Monday, and First Defence showed absolutely no punch whatsoever when he got his chance at the top of the stretch. His stride shortened and he basically crawled home, visibly tired from chasing a faster animal. Waiting another 16th would not have given him the sudden kick he needed. He didn't have it. I also agree with Dan that your take on First Defence seems to contradict almost all of your other posts urging speedy types to take control of the race. I'm a little puzzled.

Posted by: C on May 30, 2008 at 12:45 PM

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Riley,

Any thoughts on BALLADO'S THUNDER (CD8) today?

If she is herself,she looks like a definite wire-to-wire winner. But that last race is puzzling. No works since and wheeling back in 13 days. I'm guessing she's fit and the last is an aberration.

Posted by: CaliBob on May 30, 2008 at 01:44 PM

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Kind of funny that Vicstu, brought up Ali. I was thinking about cocky/confident athletes because of Dutrow's comments over the last month or so with BB.

Some people really dislike a cocky bragger, (even when they win) some think it is just classless, regardless of results. Others, I have noticed, seem to really gravitate to the mouthy athlete, (maybe even more because they are so outspoken) and simply appreciate the bragging as confidence.

Ali, is a perfect example of this. He is someone (maybe more than any other sports figure in history) that is very polarizing. You either love Ali and his brashness, or you hate him (athletically speaking) because of his mouth.

I, for one, never have a problem with an athlete who self promotes, as long as they produce. In fact, I probably fall into the category of "gravitating towards" with an outspoken athlete who is at the top of his game, in their prime (Ali, Roy Jones, Joe Namath, Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain and many, many more). There is just something I love about a person who can "back it up."

I really can't explain it, other than, when someone boasts before a contest, I am "all in" watching it. I love it. The excitement is more intense because of the proclamation (whatever or however the athlete chooses to make it). I just love the idea of the best of the best saying "My best is better than your best", like the t.v. add. That is what it is all about, putting it on the line (whether you say it out loud or not, you better be thinking you are going to win and are better).

An athlete talking out loud before an event is akin to burning all the ships when you land on the island for war (there's no going back). I love it.

Does anyone remember the olympic skier (I believe his name is Bill Johnson) that guaranteed he would win gold ( he wasn't even considered a top contender), then went out and did it. Wow! I remember watching that downhill with 10 times the enthusiasm. I think it all started with Ali, for me. He was the man, in his early days, calling his shots.

Conversely, I go totally the opposite way if you are a cocky, bragging athlete and rarely back it up. There is probably few things I enjoy more in sports than an athlete who is average (compared too others in their sport) and yet thinks they are "the man", and then they get it "handed too them" ( The NFL is loaded with these types). Either way, as a fan, I think the talking intensifys the action (if you back it up, I like you and if you don't back it up on a regular basis, I like watching you get beat).

I haven't quite decided on Dutrow, yet. The problem I am having is, he is doing all the talking and BB is doing all the performing (yes, I understand the language barrier for the horse). Something doesn't quite "feel" right about it, yet BB, is backing up Dutrow's words. It would be kind of like hearing Angelo Dundee (Ali's trainer) telling all that would listen "Ali is the greatest" "look how pretty he is", "Ali can float like a butterfly and sting like a bee." That would get on my nerves and would take the pizzaz out of it, if you know what I mean. I guess, overall, I am not offended by Dutrow's comments (afterall, BB has nothing to say for himself) and wish him and his horse no ill will, but I don't feel the "pull" like I would if, somehow, BB were able to say all the things Dutrow is saying.

Imagine if BB were able too say the things that his trainer is saying? Would you dislike the horse because of it? Would you back the horse even more than previously? (I would be foaming at the mouth in anticipation) In any case, Dutrow's bragging hasn't had the same effect on me as when the "actual" athlete is talking big. It's just not the same.

Posted by: MudhoundMojo on May 30, 2008 at 01:49 PM

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Stephen,

Always A Believer is a talented horse. We do not have him all tightly screwed down for this race. However the race did not come up very tough.

Posted by: Sobhy Sonbol on May 30, 2008 at 01:54 PM

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Longshot Key today AP 9 -

FOUR TO GO

This N1X for 3 year olds is ripe for the taking. Two in for a tag, a PrM maiden winner, and a Haw maiden wnr. Riley & Justins RADIUS is the best looking horse in the race. But my pick started strong with a nice finish at AP last year, and bled. One more and he was on the shelf. 2nd race back won at AP in a very tough race against older. But the key is this son of Include will LOVE this 1 1/8 distance, the only issue is pace. No clear front runner may equal a dead pace, in which case anything can happen. My bet is several jocks understand this and will rush to try and steal it, setting up perfect for FOUR TO GO to rally late and swallow the field.

Posted by: CaliBob on May 30, 2008 at 02:01 PM

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Justin,
Thanks for the email address. I sent my information.

Posted by: laura on May 30, 2008 at 02:05 PM

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Just as a reply on a couple of comments above.
Calibob
Regarding Empire Maker. I still think that he is a good stallion even though he has gone through a cold streak. We had good luck with our only Empire Maker 3yo Mushka. I also have another Empire Maker in the pipe line that is very exciting. He is a 2yo half brother to Forefathers. His name is Pioneerof The Nile. He has shown plenty of potential so far. I bred 2 mares back to him so far. I think his book of mares only got better also.
I think he is going to be a late stallion he him self was very immature even during the triple crown campaign.

Jlove
Alaazo is back on track and looking good. He works tomorrow.
We have a lot of horses coming back especially with Mr. Mott that are being geared up for Saratoga. Maimonides, Marcavelly, Mushka, EZ Warrior, and Queen Joanne.

Posted by: Sobhy Sonbol on May 30, 2008 at 02:06 PM

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Vicstu- I was just about to argue your point on Smarty Jones Belmont run but felt a little research was in order. Me thought the 2nd quarter of the race was quite fast & I've been stating that fallacy for years with no retort from anyone within earshot. Thanks for setting me straight on the crawling pace. Most of the time I would just blather out whatever but there are too many intelligent horseplayers on this blog leading to a case of pen(foot) in mouth disease.

Richard Dutrow was only stating opinion on Samrty Jones Belmont run, one which I subscribe. That colt could have left something in the tank & in hindsight the connections probably would have saved some for later had they known what lay ahead. At the time, I too questioned not training Smarty Jones at Belmont. At least he'd gotten used to the surroundings & a feel for the track.

Dutrow's comments on Big Brown are spot on. If you listened to Frank Lyons from Belmont yesterday he stated BB looks far better now than he ever has. Folks, barring injury or superman falling off Big Browns back, this race will be a colossal ROMP!
Keep up the good posts everyone.
Hairy

Posted by: Hairy on May 30, 2008 at 02:47 PM

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Calibob,

Ballado's Thunder should run a good race today. Last time she ran, the turf was yielding and she just did not take to the footing. She really waisted no energy in the race so she should run nicely

Posted by: Riley on May 30, 2008 at 03:13 PM

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Dan,
Good job on Blinkers Off today. Matt as one of the Hansen brothers was quite witty

To All,
One thing that we need to keep in mind as we look forward to the Belmont and back at Big Brown's dominating performance in the Ky Derby is that the pace was SLOW: 47+/1:11+. The pace was faster in the Preakness, but the competition was more a grade 3 level. With Spark Candle and maybe Mint Lane, there should be some pace in this race and BB may have to exert more energy early than he did in the Ky Derby, then run another 1/4 mile. Just something to consider; especially from a Boundary-sired colt.

Posted by: kchris on May 30, 2008 at 03:27 PM

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CaliBob beat me to the punch regarding AP #9 today (5/30). He is all over #1 Four to Go, and I am going to play #2 Radius. Here are my quick thoughts about the runners in the race:

#1 Four to Go - I think he is ripe for a regression after matching his best 2 yo figure in his first start this year and then producing a new best in his last. He does fit, but it is his first against winners.

#2 Radius - This guy, even with Douglas/Mott connections, might go off at nice odds. I thought he ran well in his last given his dislike for soft/yielding turf. If he is any good, this spot is the perfect one to prove it.

#3 Fired Brewed - He finished behind Radius in their 5/10 race at 1 mile on Arlington's turf course. He is also entered for a tag here.

#4 Celina's Slew - Great Poly breeding (thanks Uncle Steve), top trainer, stakes/G-3 experience. So why is he entered for a tag? His works since his last are also not inspiring to me.

#5 Saratoga Vicar - 1st start against winners. Will need to take another step forward to win.

#6 Command Sgt. Major - The pace of the race, but he is trying Poly again and did not take to the surface in his past two Poly attempts. However, if he reproduces his maiden win from last October, the rest of the field could be in trouble.

#7 Minimast - Has the best works of the bunch and is in outstanding form. Still, he is another trying winners for the first time.

All in all, it looks like a great betting race - one where a small "investment" could produce nice returns if you are right.

I will play Radius and include him in some exactas with Command Sgt. Major and Minimast.

Good luck to CaliBob and anyone else who might be playing this race.

Ed

Posted by: Ed on May 30, 2008 at 03:36 PM

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Dan,

Do you know what's up with Lady Joanne? She's not on the DL, but I never heard that she was retired either.

Posted by: G or G on May 30, 2008 at 03:37 PM

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Van Savant and Vicstu:

Re: Dutrow's comments, it's not that I am criticizing him for being blunt in and of itself, but after all, he didn't even get his facts straight in his attack on Servis:

From the DRF article:

"Dutrow erroneously said that Smarty Jones had his last Belmont work over a sloppy sealed track at Philadelphia Park. The track was labeled fast for that move."

I agree that ‘refreshing candor’ can have its appeal, and that the questioner may well have been trying to elicit a newsworthy response from Dutrow, but it seems like if you are going to "go at" a peer, whatever field you’re in, you should at least have your facts straight.

As far as the Preakness margin of victory taking too much out of SJ, he may well be right. I have no idea.

Vicstu: Interesting analysis of the SJ Belmont. I never quite thought of it that way.

I have always thought that the “Elliott moved too soon” notion was mostly seized upon as the most palatable one phrase explanation to the mainstream for Smarty losing the Triple Crown to a 40-1 longshot. Unfortunately, it seems to have ossified into a truism for many people.

I went back and looked at the fractions of the first four quarters of that race: 24.33, 24.32, 23.11, 23.68.

The first two correspond to Purge loping on the lead with SJ tracking, the latter two generally correspond to the
period when Purge quits, and Bailey and Solis start the aggressive "race riding" (at least that's what they were accused of) on Eddington and Rock Hard Ten.

This is about the time in the race when Durkin says there are five furlongs left, SJ has to “hold on for another minute” and Bailey and Solis are noticeably working very hard on their horses, though the race is only half over.

Durkin says that SJ is "not getting a breather", "Eddington is pressing him all the way", and about 1/16 later RHT moves up to "pressure" Smarty from the inside.

Basically, Bailey and Solis went "all in", knowing damn well that their chances would go from slim to none if they let Smarty get away.

The whole notion that Elliott "moved too soon", it seems to me, is grounded in the simplistic idea that, if Stewart had just waited a bit, and let Eddington and RHT move first, Bailey and Solis would've raced each other as aggressively as they "pressed" Smarty, thereby burning themselves out and setting up a dream trip for Smarty.

This ignores the reality that Bailey and Solis' early moves only occurred when they saw Purge quit abruptly and the Big Horse inherit the lead.

When they saw SJ start to get away, they were going to try and jump on him, period. I think that you are correct in that SJ taking the lead from the start probably would have made the inevitable Bailey/Solis pressure less detrimental to Smarty.

Basically, to me, the first half mile of the race was fairly “unproductive” for Smarty. He’s a length back when Purge quits, and he’s allowed inferior horses to stay with him through a mild 48.7, instead of utilizing his natural speed to open up ground.

If he goes out on the lead, sets a bit stronger early pace, and is say, 1 ½ in front when Purge quits, instead of being a length behind, the whole race possibly has a different complexion.

Bailey and Solis would certainly have still hustled to challenge SJ at the point when Purge dropped out, but, if Smarty had the jump on them, they wouldn’t have been in the position to menace him for as long as they did. If RHT and Eddington are caught flat-footed a bit, put a way a bit earlier, SJ blows clear by a bit more, maybe Prado waits a little longer to move and Birdstone doesn’t grind it out by a length.

I don’t want to give the impression to anyone that I think I have the answers; or that I'm criticizing Stewart Elliott, not at all, the strategy for a race like the Belmont is incredibly complex, and we are all just speculating and trying to understand the race as handicappers when we say that a jockey could’ve done something differently to better effect.

I have to say that, bottom line is that SJ had a five length lead on a 40- 1 shot with a half mile to go, and he’d put away his logical opposition (RHT and Eddington were backing up). To me, Elliott put Smarty in a very good position to win the race. If Smarty held on to win, everyone would be talking about the great ride he delivered.

Posted by: James Mc. on May 30, 2008 at 03:42 PM

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Sohby,

Thank you for your thoughts on Empire Maker. Pioneer of the Nile sounds really exciting! I've always like Forefathers and still expect him to become a graded stakes wines.
As for the other "comebackers" you listed I am SO happy to hear EZ WARRIOR will be coming back. I fell in love (like I'm sure many others) after his first two starts. I remember B. Baffert being interviewed after the 2nd race and he said, "I trained his sire (Exploit), and this horse is already better than his daddy". EZ was 2 at the time!
I thought after the King's Bishop we were ready for the next step in his career. But alas.. injuries can't be controlled.

What are your plans with him? I don't recall if he's run on turf, but with Carson City, Deputy Minister, Roberto, and Blushing Groom on the bottom, how about a grass race?
Del Mar has some nice mile races on the turf this summer, and I would be thrilled if he'd come out here.
Speaking of DMR, is Mr Z ever going to run any horses out here again? I know the major problems he has with Harper and Polytrack, and I'm completely in agreement. But perhaps a potential grass horse like this could be an exception. Probably not... But a guy can dream can't he?

Thanks again for your post.

Posted by: CaliBob on May 30, 2008 at 03:45 PM

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C-
the steward at Arlington is Eddie Arroyo (who still knew his way around the track on top of a horse!)

Sobhy-
Guess I gotta go back and look to see if anyone can beat "Always" even at 80-90% (but like you said, didn't look like a whole lot of talent in the race other than your horse)

Posted by: Stephen L. Taylor on May 30, 2008 at 04:15 PM

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Riley,

Thanks and good luck today.

Ed,

Its on!! Will be a good betting race for sure. I just think you're missing the boat if you leave out Four To Go altogether. Believe me when I say the offspring of Include love a route of ground. I follow this sire more than any other. This is serious distance here, and none have gone this far. Include's plain and simple improve on the stretch out. Unless you're right that his last rail-bumping win took too much out of him, he's the winner IMO.

Posted by: CaliBob on May 30, 2008 at 04:44 PM

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Steve V-

Hollywood night picks:

1) Win Citi Stormer/Box with Si Chimi
2) Win Squeeze Me Tight
3) Box Applaud and Warrens Gold
4) Win Ms. Manhattan Jack/Box with My Sister Laureen
5) Win Stand Tall /Box with Cost of Freedom
6) Win Stomp Dance
7)Win De Car Guy/ Box with Tribal Mischief
8)Win Spring Catch/box with cinderalla ella

Holla

Posted by: Tony SunShyne on May 30, 2008 at 04:46 PM

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vicstu,
Yes the BH article was one that I had seen, but I forgot about it, so thanks. Also I read an article by Glenye Cain Oxford,
I believe the DRF, May 9th.

One of the articles I liked the best in terms of the history of BB and his ownership was an article by Cindy Pierson Dulay of Horse-Races.Net

Van Savant,
I have heard of the MPH book, and have wanted to read it for some time. Maybe this will be the nudge I need to go out and get it; from your description it doesn't sound like it reads like a novel though.

ClaireS,
I had not been to the JC website before you mentioned it. Thanks. It looks like a lot of interesting stuff there and I know I will be reading everything there. I noticed they even have information on the design and measurement of jockey silks. 'Cool'.

Thanks/

Posted by: chicago gerry on May 30, 2008 at 05:05 PM

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Practicing for the NHC qualifier next weekend with this weekend's stakes races - here are a couple for starters:

TDN9 OhioDrby-G2 (8f 3yo): #8 Cherokee Artist (ML:12/1) -> will likely be bet down off his ML off just a maiden win in his 2nd start, but what a win that was => 3-4wide for almost the entire race and, as pointed out by Riley last evening, that race was a "key race"! Next outs so far: You and I Forever (3rd) won msw yesterday, Runaway Banjo (8th) won msw last Friday, ChrisGotEven (9th) placed in an msw last week. Include in exotics closers #3 Your Round (ML:8/1), with a jockey change to Mena and #7 Z Fortune (ML:5/2), who goes back to Garrett Gomez. (WP#8; EXBX #3,7,8)

WO6 Nassau-G2 (8.5fT 3up F&M): #5 Callwood Dancer (ML:8/1) -> looking for an mild upset; ran well on WO-poly to win 1st-off layoff earlier in the month; Da Silva/Attfield good combo, especially on this filly; may get the jump on the likely cofavs #1 Sealy Hill (ML:5/2) and #7 Arravale (ML:4/1) - BTW, weird weight conditions for this race IMO! (WP#5; EXBX #1,5,7)

ALSO...OTHER SATURDAY GRADED STAKES QUICK PICKS:
CD8 Dgwood-G3: #5 Pious Ashley (ML:10/1)
CD10 Aristds-G3: #2 Elite Squadron (ML:7/2)
BEL9 SandsPnt-G2: #4 Alwajeeha (ML:5/2) AND #6 Raw Silks (ML:6/1)
HOL5 Milady-G2: #6 Zenyatta (ML:4/5)
HOL8 "The Earthquake Stake"-G2: #2 Tiago (ML:2/1)
GG8 GGFlds-G3: #8 Fitz Flag (ML:10/1)

Good Luck This Weekend!!!

Posted by: Alan on May 30, 2008 at 06:08 PM

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James Mc,

I absolutely agree with you about Elliot having (in theory) given Smarty Jones a decent ride (considering the horse was rank). My sole opinion was, since SJ broke WELL on top and was in the lead after the first 100 yards or so from the outside, perhaps if Elliot would have put SJ on the lead and controlled the pace, he would have had that breather that he says Smarty needed. Also, SJ did not become rank until he was pulled back off of the lead. The beginning of the Belmont is always a feeling out process, rarely is the pace that fast. In addition, the jocks on Purge, Eddington and Rock Hard Ten would have caught substantial grief if they had began "race-riding" in the first 2 furlongs against a horse who was not only faster than their horses, but had shown much more stamina at a classic distance.
In other words, it would have given their horse no chance at all had they pressed that early from all sides.

The race did speed up once the race riding began. Sometimes you have to work with the hand that you are dealt. SJ broke on top, just take it from there as you know the more he can try and control the pace at that distance, the better it bodes...

C,

Perhaps my take on FD is a bit puzzling...Commentator is a different kind of horse, though. I just thought if FD wanted to challenge, than he should do so within the first 2 furlongs...if not, once Commentator has been allowed to roll, wait until 6 furlongs to mount that bid. I simply thought, given the choice made by Castellano to track (for whatever reason), there was no need to move before 6 panels coming out of the turn (not before it). I may be wrong, but Dan or anyone else has not stated WHY the horse had to be moved at that point. I did not see it as FD dragging Castellano up there ala Hard Spun in the Preakness.

In any event, I do agree he ran horribly and it probably would have made little difference if he had waited, hindsight being 20-20. But, to me the move was too early. Why challenge that early after your horse had been sitting right off that torrid pace? Commentator's lifetime ppfs, to me, show the time to challenge is early or not. Not mid race.

Posted by: vicstu on May 30, 2008 at 06:20 PM

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CaliBob,
We might just ship in horses for some big races, we will not be stabling in del mar.

Posted by: Justin Zayat on May 30, 2008 at 06:34 PM

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Sobhy Sonbol:

I also want to express my appreciation for your presence on this forum.

Speaking of Forefathers, I was wondering if you have any plans to try him back on the turf?

I don't have his PP's in front of me, but I believe that his first ever start was on the turf in UK, and he didn't run well, but I wonder whether you have contemplated trying him again given his amazing turf pedigree? (Gone West out of a Lord at War Mare for those reading who don't know). Perhaps he would like a firm US turf course?

Thank you.

Posted by: James Mc. on May 30, 2008 at 06:56 PM

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Riley & Justin,

Big props for the Win with Radius! He ran real nice, a great ride, and paid 9.80 to boot. Congrats.

Ed,

You must have scored! Good job calling the top 2 right on. I hope my persistence led you to throw in Four To Go in the 3rd slot and hit the $110 Tri.

Posted by: CaliBob on May 30, 2008 at 07:45 PM

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Hello all,

Its been a while but I have read a lot. I did go to the Preakness for the 30th time and it was great. Did not win money but had a great time. If anyone was there we were at the escalator near the pizza stand on the ground floor in the grandstand. We get that place every year. I did get my name in a blurb on a Wash. Post article on Peta and Eight Belles article. Been very busy. Heading to the OTB in the big town of Martinsville VA. Belmont 1st - Like Precise
Action with Silver Prospector.

Mr. Zayet- Thank you for your insights on this blog. I want to ask you some questions so it may help my handicapping. If you wish to digress that fine. I see you have four trainers, do they pick the jockeys or do you? I see so many trainers change and I just wonder do they know the horse. Also, I follow Tony Dutrow a lot and I think he is a great trainer. He has J.
Rose on a lot of his horses at Del and Phil. Park. I think he is a great jockey and have you ever thought of him riding on some of Romans or Mott's horses. Lastly, do you ever call for a jockey change with one of your trainers. Thanky you for your time.

Michael H.

Posted by: Michael H. on May 30, 2008 at 09:25 PM

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Vicstu,

What seems a little odd to me in the Met, was FD seemed content to be a length and half off for most of the back stretch and then seems to make a small move up to within a half length right before the turn. FD then, (as they entered the first turn) gave way to almost two full lengths. This may have been Commentator trying to get a small break and slowing slightly (but I don't think so, knowing Commentator) and a case of FD going the same speed and Commentator coming back to FD. The point being that, if Castellano even asked FD a little bit more than was his normal stride (to get within that half length) and then gave way from that half length to almost 2 lengths and then made his move at the 3 furlong to try and get by Commentator, he in effect asked the horse twice for extra run (albeit, only slightly the first time). That can effect some horses very drastically, as they are not all "push button." It would also explain the horrible finish. I am by no means saying that FD was the best in the race, but, I saw something I didn't like with that "double move."

It seems to me, that once Castellano decides to be content a length and a half off after the first quarter, the horse seems comfortable, why not sit tight and let commentator go out 3 lengths (since you have already conceded the lead (I must admit I am watching on my laptop and the screen isn't overwhelming, so maybe FD wasn't comfortable. He looked it too me). Instead, Castellano either urges or allows FD to go right up too a half length, and then concedes again.

I say one or the other, but don't lay off, come on, and then layoff, then finally come on again. Like I said, it was a small move, but it didn't quite seem right.

Posted by: MudhoundMojo on May 30, 2008 at 09:38 PM

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