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FormBlog | May 23, 2008

Saturday Stakes, Storm Flag Flying, etc.

Let's take a look at some of Saturday's stakes races:

American 1000 Guineas (Race 6 - Arlington):
It's nice to see Earlie Fires get some live mounts courtesy of the Wayne Catalano assembly line, and Uncle Earlie gave Dreaming of Liz his patented "Bill Daly" ride in taking the Double Delta over polytrack on May 2.  Dreaming of Liz, a daughter of El Prado, is certainly bred for the turf, and she has the speed to be a dangerous forward factor in her grass debut.  Catalano is only 17-23 (73%, that's not a misprint) at the Arlington meet.  Three Graces took to turf like a duck to water when taking her 'n1x' condition in her first start off the bench.  She went gate-to-wire that day after setting moderate fractions, and may feel a bit more pressure on the front end here.  Coupled with Elle Tish Slew, she may be a new filly on grass, and should offer value on exotics.  Much Obliged boasts an improving Beyer pattern, and faced tougher when only beaten 2 3/4 lengths in the Grade 3 Appalachian at Keeneland.  If Three Graces and Jolie Visage press Dreaming of Liz early, Much Obliged would be rolling late.  Scolara has been very consistent, hitting the board in all five starts.  She has won her last two starts on turf, and boasts good tactical speed.  We'll be rooting for Riley and company with Scolara.  Valentine Fever only raced evenly on turf in the Edgewood at Churchill Downs, and she may be a little better on polytrack.
Selections:  Dreaming of Liz, Three Graces

Arlington Classic (Race 8 - Arlington)
Not much speed on display in this turf test at 1 1/16 miles, and Meal Penalty may ride soft fractions right into the winner's circle.  He received two good confidence-building wins on polytrack in preparation for this, and may have finally figured this game out.  There are some surface and distance questions, but his apparent pace edge is too strong to ignore. Sporting Art really impressed the eye with a pair of Grade 3 wins in Florida this year, and he overcame early trouble to beat a next-out winner in the Calder Derby.  He may have to be a bit closer to the pace in here, but has a nice way of going, and wouldn't be a surprise.  Prime Realestate must be respected as it's Catalano and Fires, but he had a dream setup in his recent 'n2L' turf win at Keeneland, and won despite switching leads several times in the stretch.  He's a late-runner at the mercy of the pace.  Amazing Results seeks his third straight on turf, and should save valuable ground breaking from the inside post.  Trainer Chris Block is extremely underrated. 
Selections:  Meal Penalty, Sporting Art, Prime Realestate

Hanshin Handicap (Race 9 - Arlington)
Tough race so I'm going to look for a price.  Throng earned a triple-digit Beyer for Team Pletcher four back at Laurel, but hasn't come close to duplicating that effort in his subsequent races.  He may have been a bit short when run down by Coragil Cat in the Timeless Native, and can factor with slight improvement in his second start back.  Despite losing his last three starts, Stonehouse seems in career form.  He fought bravely to the wire in his last two races, earned excellent figures in those tries, and should be a forward factor once again at a square price.  Lovango looms the horse to beat.  He stretches out with good tactical speed, and draws a solid attack post.  He projects for an excellent outside stalking trip just off logical pacesetters Spotsgone, Stonehouse, and Steve's Double.  Steve's Double looked set for a breakthrough after taking three in a row to close out his 2007 campaign, but he sputtered in his last two starts.  He's only raced once since January 12.  Fort Prado is a gallant veteran, and should get a nice pace setup.  He seems better on grass, however.
Selection:  Throng

Louisville Handicap (Race 10 - Churchill):
Another difficult race so I'll stab for a bomb.  Transduction Gold is proven at this difficult 12 furlong distance, and he upset Grade 3 foes in the Sycamore three back at Keeneland.  He then was completely overmatched in the Breeders' Cup Turf - a throwout race if ever there was one - and may have been short of condition when trying this marathon trip off the bench in the Elkhorn on April 25.  Pickapocket (for Mott), and Lattice finished one-two in a recent money allowance at Keeneland.  Neither would be a surprise here, but both must prove they can stay.  Pickapocket was very game in the allowance as he always found more in the stretch, but Lattice may be the one to prosper at this trip.  Brass Hat finished well ahead of the top pick in the Elkhorn, and is another that may do better in the second start back.  He's never won on turf, though, and may have to overcome a moderate to slow pace up front.  Silverfoot is 4-5 over this course including three wins in this race (2004-2006).  He hasn't won since the 2006 edition - nine starts ago - and the eight-year-old may be getting long in the tooth. 
Selections:  Transduction Gold, Lattice, Pickapocket

Sheepshead Bay Handicap (Race 9 - Belmont)
I'll admit it...I'm a sucker for J'Ray.  I'm simply married to the horse, and while she's won seven of 19 starts, I'm still not sure how good she really is.  She was no match for Mauralakana in the Mairzy Doates at Calder, but it was her usual solid try, and she should be close to very slow fractions at Belmont on Saturday.  Mauralakana has done little wrong this year, and the five-year-old may be reaching full maturity for Christophe Clement.  She does her best running from off the pace, and thus may be somewhat compromised by the expected moderate pace.  She's the class of the field, and must be respected.  Herboriste finished behind Mauralakana in her last two races, but is a consistent sort, and should be running late for a piece...at least.  Hostess gave some nice efforts last year, but finally broke through with a graded win in the Orchid at Gulfstream on March 30.  John Velazquez fits this mare like a glove, but Hostess is another that would appreciate pace help.
Selection:  J'Ray

My Juliet Stakes (Race 9 - Philadelphia)
Dream Rush will probably scratch to run at Belmont on Sunday so Wild Gams' price will significantly decrease.  She may not offer much value, but will still be tough from off the pace.  A three-time Grade 3 winner, Wild Gams wasn't disgraced when an even fourth in the Grade 2 Madison on polytrack last time out, and should appreciate some class relief.  Fancy Diamond is a perfect 3-3, but she received a great trip stalking dueling pacesetters last time out at Aqueduct.  This will be the toughest field the former $40,000 maiden claimer has ever faced.  Dream Rush will come off the Disabled List, and may be an underlay here or at Belmont.  Sheets was the beaten favorite in the very fast Ms. Woodford Stakes on the Breeders' Cup undercard, and will make her first start of the hot Alan Goldberg barn. 
Selections:  Wild Gams, Fancy Diamond

More importantly, who do you like on Saturday?  I'd like to know.

***

Dan, Have you heard anything regarding Storm Flag Flying's first 2yo Colors Flying? I hear he is in trainning at the Spa. Could you also post the lifetime PP's for Storm Flag Flying. She was one heck of a 2yo herself. Thanks
Matt

Haven't heard anything about Colors Flying, but make sure to put her on your watch list so you'll be alerted when he records his first published workout.

Here are Storm Flag Flying's lifetime past performances:

Download StormFlagFlying.pdf

***

BTW, speaking of good young sires from Florida. The top sire in Florida is the sire of Lt. Ron. Does anyone know that much about Ron's sire?
vicstu

Lieutenant Ron is by Graeme Hall, a sire that I spotlighted in Betting Maidens & 2-Year-Olds.  Graeme Hall is by Dehere out of Grade 3 sprint winner Win Crafty Lady, and is a half-brother to Grade 1 sprint winner Harmony Lodge, Grade 3 winner Win McCool, and multiple stakes-winner Win's Fair Lady.  Win Crafty Lady's most famous sibling is Diligence, the winner of the Grade 2 Tom Fool Handicap.

Here are Graeme Hall's lifetime past performances:

Download graeme_hall.pdf

A $200,000 yearling purchase, he had a solid career as a multiple Grade 2 winner, and he outran his sprint pedigree.

Graeme Hall stands for $5,000 at Winding Oaks Farm in Florida.  Here is his stallion page from Winding Oaks:

http://stallions.bcbloodstock.com/images/stallions.bcbloodstock.com/default1.aspx?contentName=Horse%20List&horseId=99&thumbsize=_thumb

Graeme Hall is also the sire of multiple stakes-winner Graeme Six. 

***

Dan, I noticed Aquarian was on the DL, but I thought I read that he ended up being euthanized that day or soon after.
Alex P

It's now updated.  Thanks.

***

Nice picks by Arazi at Belmont today!  Hope you cashed!

***

Be back Sunday night with some Memorial Day opinions.

Best of luck this weekend,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman on May 23, 2008 | Permalink

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Comments

Thank you guys for your support, We believe in taking shots. look Giacomo won the derby, he was a huge long shot and almost all of you guys bet racing you all see longshots win all the time so why can't one of them be ours? Sometimes they are misplaced but sometimes they might peek at the right time and it went against us sometimes but sometimes it went for us. But thanks everyone for your support!! Good luck this weekend betting!

Posted by: Justin Zayat on May 23, 2008 at 09:17 PM

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Justin;

I agree. I enjoy owners and trainers who actually do take a shot a races. Heck, I couldn't believe that Birdstone was even entered in the 2004 Belmont, and look what happened.

Tinky;

Something struck me about your assertion regarding Zayat Stables. Here is your quote:

"If by "progressive", you mean regularly pressuring trainers to run horses over their heads, or (at times) in otherwise unsuitable races (e.g. Z Humor at 10 furlongs, etc.), then you are correct!".

You now have me wondering, exactly what is it that you know about this "pressure" that you assert that this stable exerts?

Now Tinky, I have no dog in this hunt; rather, I am looking for clarity regarding your assertion. If you are merely inferring "pressure", fine, please state it as such, and then I will understand. But if you actually have evidence to back up your assertion, then I am very interested.
Thanks.

Posted by: Van Savant on May 23, 2008 at 10:08 PM

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Calibob,

Its larryK, not lennyK,
sorry bout the Slamtthedoor.
I bet him too. WP and in the PK4. Thanks for liking the choice. We'll get some more.

Posted by: larryk on May 23, 2008 at 10:20 PM

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picks for the weekend
sheepshead--rising cross
1000 guineas--dreaming of liz
classic--sporting art
hanshin--throng
louisville--lattice
10th at belmont ---exton

Posted by: matt smith on May 23, 2008 at 10:20 PM

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Van Savant –

"Now Tinky, I have no dog in this hunt; rather, I am looking for clarity regarding your assertion. If you are merely inferring "pressure", fine, please state it as such, and then I will understand. But if you actually have evidence to back up your assertion, then I am very interested."

To answer your question, no, it is not merely speculation on my part. But more to the point, let's put the horse in question into perspective. Bill Mott has trained horses for 30 years. He has, as everyone knows, won virtually every important race in this country which there is to win. He is also naturally conservative, and, left to his own devices, isn't inclined to run horses in races that he doesn't believe they have a good chance of winning.

He had, to use the salient example, saddled exactly four starters in the Kentucky Derby prior to this year. He's the all-time leading trainer at Churchill Downs, has enjoyed some of the very best stock in the game for the last twenty years (at least), and he'd started FOUR horses in the Derby prior to 2008.

So, this year he has a horse which was (going into the Derby) clearly a cut below the best of his generation, is bred to be a miler and had run like one, and was a 20-1 shot in the race. Do you really believe that he would have run Z Humor if he didn't receive pressure to do so?

I'd argue that one doesn't have to be an insider to conclude that he would not have.

Now, others have argued that the Zayat stable (or any owner for that matter) has every right to "take a shot". Sure they do. It's their horse, and their money. But that's completely irrelevant to the question which I raised about the quality of management of their better horses.

And again, I stress that I am not picking on one particular stable, as it is common for owners of nice horses to aim for the stars. The problem, though, is that more than a few of those nice horses suffer as a result of mismanagement, and fail to develop to their full potential as a result.

Posted by: Tinky on May 24, 2008 at 12:22 AM

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Circle or cross out my picks as you wish this weekend.

Sheepshead Bay Handicap (Saturday, Race 9, Belmont Park) --> 1. J' Ray 2. Mauralakana 3. Hostess 4. Ochre (6-8-2-3)

Full picks and explanations at http://www.thoroughbredink.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&blogger=PGM&Itemid=37

Posted by: PGM on May 24, 2008 at 01:04 AM

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Saturday at Arlington:
1000 Guineas (6th Race)--
4-Scolara
9-Seemingly
8-Dreaming of Liz

Arlington Classic (8th Race)--
9-Sporting Art (Best Bet)
6-Free Fighter
8-Meal Penalty

Hanshin Cup (9th Race)--
8-Lovango
1-Stonehouse
2-Spotsgone (paid $165 in this race last year!)

finish the P4 with:
10th Race
7-Buddha Pass
6-Frostybdancing

11th Race:
9-Frank Joseph
_________

At Belmont:
Sheepshead Bay--
Ochre (gimme Pletcher and a price!)
Hostess
Mauralakana

Posted by: meadowlake59 on May 24, 2008 at 01:15 AM

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Justin Zayat,

Want you to know I think it is an honor for me to read your post on Dan's blog. Not only is your stable the leading stable in money winnings in the US, it consistently puts many in the starting gate. Which as someone that likes to bet means alot to me. You guys will get your BIG one, your trust and, confidence in Mott will pay off.

Tinky, you are welcome to post your thoughts. Although your statement that Distorted Humor has been mainly a sire of milers and, sprinters is really out of line!

Distorted Humor is the only sire in history to sire a Travers, Whitney and, Jim Dandy winner in the same year. DH, has sired Funny Cide, winner of the Preakness, and Kentucky Derby. Flower Alley, winner of the Travers, Jim Dandy, Lanes End, and a 2nd in the BC Classic. Any Given Saturday, winner of the Haskell, (over Curlin & Hard Spun), Commentator, winner of the Whitney H, Forty Niners Son, winner of the Clement Hirsh Memorial, and one just for you-RINKY DINK, winner of the Group 1 Schweppes S. in Australia.

To help you out in further pedigree handicapping post, THE SIRE AND DAMSIRE ARE THE KEYS TO DISTANCE AND SURFACE.
Distorted Humor's sire, Forty Niner won the Travers, Haskell, The Fountain Of Youth, and finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. Don't see any sprints or miles amongst that group?

Distorted Humor's damsire was DANZIG. While having the ability to sire a sprinter, (miler) that is certainly not Danzig's MO.

Can't close without mentioning Editors Note. The Belmont is two weeks away, Editors Note who won the 1996 Belmont in 2:28 4/5ths (which was 1 second faster than Seattle Slew's win) is also a son of Forty Niner!

So Tinky, if you still think Distorted Humor is just a sire of sprinters and, milers let me know. I would be glad to post a complete pedigree profile on DH.

Posted by: johnnyz on May 24, 2008 at 01:15 AM

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Hmmm, the American 1000 Guineas. Good idea. I'm glad (and a little surprised) they actually got the conditions right to be consistent with the rest of the world: 1 mile on turf for 3YO fillies. So when is the corresponding 2000? I'd love to see an American St. Leger too. BTW, the Irish 2000 is also tomorrow: New Approach vs Henrythenavigator.

Dan,
I've reading about how Mauralakana will be compromised by the "lack of pace" in the Sheapshead Bay. Here's a strange question: if you have a field of dedicated deep closers but no front-runners, are any of them at a bigger disadvantage than the rest? It's really a matter of how such a race will unfold, isn't it?
I didn't look at the Sheapshead Bay, so I'm not sure whether this situation accurately describes the field. I also realize that some horses might want to be covered up more/less than others and some may not always require a target to run at. But if each of the runners has the same "wait-wait-wait-and-pounce" style, why would Mauralakana, for example, be at a bigger disadvantage than someone else?
There is no such thing as a paceless race. The pace might be slow, but SOMEONE has to (and will) set it. That much is guaranteed. The trick is figuring out who will do it.

Posted by: C on May 24, 2008 at 01:43 AM

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johnnyz –

To avoid any confusion in the future, when I say "milers", I'm including horses which stay up to nine furlongs (as most milers will on fast surfaces). So most of your examples are not in any way contrary to my assertion. The Jim Dandy, Haskell, Whitney, etc., are all races which are suitable for high-class milers.

The pertinent question is, how many Distorted Humors have been best suited to 10 furlongs and beyond? The answer: exceedingly few.

No serious observer of racing could arrive at any conclusion other than the one which I have stated: DH is overwhelmingly a sire (and a damned good one) of sprinters and milers. Are there occasional anomalies? Yes, as the ALWAYS are. Big Brown is by Boundary, Midnight Lute is by Real Quiet, etc., etc., etc.

DH also has been around long enough that his pedigree is no longer relevant. In other words, it makes sense to use the pedigree of a young stallion in order to help predict the likely aptitude of his offspring. But when a stallion has produced several crops, as is the case with DH, the performances of his offspring are all that really matter.

I can hardly wait for your next lesson.

Posted by: Tinky on May 24, 2008 at 01:50 AM

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This was some very bad news that I learned today.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/94813.html

Celtic Dreamin, '07 British Columbia Derby winner, euthanized

By RANDY GOULDING
Celtic Dreamin, who won the Grade 3 British Columbia Derby last September and the Crystal Water Handicap at Santa Anita in March, was euthanized after breaking a leg at Hollywood Park on Sunday.

The gelding's owner, K.K. Sangara, said the injury happened after a six-furlong work.

"He worked great, but he broke a leg when he was pulling up after he had finished the work," said Sangara.

In 12 starts, Celtic Dreamin won 6 races and finished second 4 times, earning $600,543. He was trained by Rafael Becerra.

It was the second straight year that the winner of the B.C. Derby died in his 4-year-old year following a workout in California. Last year Halo Steven died from a reported heart attack after a work at Hollywood Park in January.
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I'm so sorry to hear about this. Celtic was one fun horse to watch. He was unique, and brave, and a horse that just thrilled at coming from way way back to win.

Mr. Sangara must be broken up about this. I can say this, and I hope he knows this, that he gave his horse every opportunity to show what kind of horse he could be. He let him run long, and short, on dirt and turf, and even brought him home to win the Grade 3 British Columbia Dreby.

This horse will be missed by me and by many people.

Rest in Peace Celtic Dreamin

Posted by: CaliBob on May 24, 2008 at 03:54 AM

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LarryK,

Don't even think twice about it. It was fun! Put it this way... I never would have even given a second look to SLAMTHEDOOR. You made excellent points, and after watching both his races a few times I was impressed whith how he was progressing. The second race was nice! 1:10 2/5 at the 6f in a mile-and-a-sixteenth race, and fighting off the rest till half way around the turn was encouraging. Now shortening up, with little other speed, I knew he'd get the lead like he did.

The fact is I never would have touched this horse, and instead, we got together on him and took a shot. And I think of it this way... I fully expected him to run the race that he did, and he finished about where the public expected him too. BUT, I wouldn't have been at all surprised if he wire'd 'em and for my investment of about $62 (DD, Pk3, and Tri), I would have cashed for about 17k. Now that is what I call a nice ROI!

Posted by: CaliBob on May 24, 2008 at 04:05 AM

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Dan,

Thanks. I did multiply but the factor could've been much bigger with a little luck in Race 8. Not only because I would've been alive in Pick 4 but also the saver late double I played in which I covered my Race 9 banker with couple of others including the eventual winner ** sigh ** but at least the exacta-in-defeat paid nice. And then there is always another day for a decent hit :) I hope others, including you, fared better than I did though.

Now, there's this not-so-amazing discussion (started by Mr. Tinky) going on that has forced me to share my opinion:

Being ambitious is nothing new in this sport. I remeber it was a norm for D. Wayne Lukas to place his horses where they simply did not belong. We handicappers have two sides; the human side - which love the ambitiousness and the will to compete by the stable, and the handicapper side - which is total business and its all about $$$. The sportsman in me loved the challenge Lukas would undertake but the handicapper in me ridiculed him. In certain occassions, both of my human and handicapping sides came in harmony which brought me a few decent winners in Charismatic and Thunder Gulch, just to name a couple.

Every single trainer and owner run his horses "over their heads", even in claiming races. Ever wondered how Doug transformed Lava Man from a $50k claimer to an icon in California racing? Do you really think Todd Pletcher really knows how good his horse is and at what level he should compete? We should be mature enough to know that almost always this sport is about trial and error - unless of course you have a freak like Big Brown.

I think Tinky allowed his handicapping side to overshadow his human side. As a handicapper, we should always remember that it's just the matter of time that one of Zayats' horse will prove all of our handicapping wrong by lighting every working-bulb (or pixel) on the tote board.

At least, I can't wait to see that day and hoping I have him!

Posted by: Arazi on May 24, 2008 at 05:33 AM

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Ladies and Gentlemen, lets save the arguing for a decent topic, like say Saratoga vs Del Mar. Well, of course there isnt much of an argument unless you enjoy four maiden claiming races a day...

Posted by: Geoff on May 24, 2008 at 06:47 AM

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So Dutrow wants to race Curlin now huh??
I'm sure the garbage can 3 yr olds he has beaten up on so far, rank right up there with the best 4 yr old racing has seen in about 30 years. Dutrow is the Fred Blasse of racing. Maybe he's taking the Winstrol along with the horse and has effected his brain.
What if Eight Belles tested positive in her autopsy for the substance Big Brown was weaned on? All the activists would have wanted Larry Jonses' head right??.
And the dumb, brazen statements that still come out of his mouth amaze me. He needs a slice of humble pie.
I have never rooted against a POTENTIAL Triple Crown winner in the Belmont, BUT I hope Casino Drive crushes this horse just to shut Dutrow up...
Heres hoping for a Cesario like performance from the Japanese horse....

For today, look out for Tranduction Gold on the front end in The Louisville. He looks to be the only "real" speed and can lite it up at over 15/1 by post time.

Posted by: monmouthisajoke on May 24, 2008 at 08:50 AM

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Hey Geoff:
How about the steady diet of 5 1/2 furlong grass races that make up about 40% of Saratogas cards??? Gotta love those.
The only great meet left is the Spring and Fall Keeneland meets.
Perhaps because they havent tried to extend them as did NY and CA in chase of the all-mighty buck.

Posted by: monmouthisajoke on May 24, 2008 at 08:53 AM

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Selections-Saturday, May 24th

Arlington Park

Race 1
7 Thousandkissesdeep
2 Starlet Sky

Race 2
7 Manuchu Prince
2 El Kabong

Race 3
6 Rotary
2 Creative Force

Race 4
3 Premium Unleaded
7 Ashtonofun

Race 5
1 Yanks Acomin
3 House of Words

Race 6
Scolara
Dreaming of Liz

Race 7
Action Seeker
Atheist

Race 8
3 Sabatian County
9 Sporting Art

Race 9
4 Steves Double
8 Lavango

Race 10
7 Budda pass
4 Splashofscarlet

Race 11
10 Really Bob
9 Frank Joseph

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Belmont

Race 9
2 Hostess

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Monmouth

Race 9
Buddy's Humor

Posted by: chicago gerry on May 24, 2008 at 09:08 AM

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Monmouth opens the turf course today and got a real nice race in R9, a mile stakes for 70k. I'm playing #1 Ballonenostrikes (8-1), who last time was 6th in a better field behind Soldier's Dancer and Silver Tree (won G3 next out at Aqu), and before that was 2nd by 3/4 to Cosmonaut. He should be able to save ground from the rail and get a jump on the favorites. His finishing time at Tampa 2 back was very strong on yielding turf. The obvious threat is #9 Silent Roar who beat Kip Deville in August over this course, but this is his first start since.

In R8, #6 Hobbitontherocks (6-1) I think should get a good trip. In his return he didn't pick up his feet behind a 6-5 wire job, but I think is drawn well. Joey P has lost a step. Fagedaboutdit Sal is a route horse with a 3-69 rider. Who's the Cowboy has also lost a step. The rest are one-dimensional front-runners or slow.

Posted by: Greg on May 24, 2008 at 09:27 AM

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I'm a horseplayer as well and I like big fields and while I am generally a chalk eating weasel, I do enjoy seeking out live longshots...

Do some of you think that owners should not run in spots where the odds are that they will finish off the board? Do you prefer 3-5 horse fields for your wagering?

I think it's noteworthy to keep in mind that generally speaking racing horses is not a profit motive (albeit most desire to balance with responsible financial decisions), and it is about sportsmanship, competing, and the grandest level of entertainment and thrill, recognizing that sometimes nearly anything is possible...our sport did introduce the now universal term Upset...

I'm quite certain that anyone that would criticize an owner for running their horse in the KY Derby or other classics has either never owned a racehorse or is just jealous... I mean, what was Ken McPeek doing running Sarava in the Belmont at 70-1???? Of course, those examples can go on and on and on.....

Fun story with personal connection. I had across the board money on Red Giant in last year's Virginia Derby at 37-1. I had watched him on the NY circuit, thought he had ability and thought he was an overlay in this field. Interestingly, if I recall correctly, he was Pletcher's 3rd string entry and they struggled to even land a rider for him. My tie-in is that a Monmouth Park jockey was offered the mount and turned it down to ride my filly in a stakes race at Monmouth as his only mount on the card. We scratched (bad pp draw)! I'm not sure but I think he might have changed agents after this...

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on May 24, 2008 at 09:42 AM

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Why do I get the feeling that all the piss-taking between horsemen is alienating some of the more eloquent prose-meisters?

Need I summon Dan to post a "Best of Steve T Stories" retrospective to remind folks what this blog is for?

I dig all of you and I read this for a taste of home in this horse eating country I live in, so pardon my concerns. And yes, they have butcher shops that only deal "Pferde" or horse meat.

Posted by: Jason in Austria on May 24, 2008 at 09:45 AM

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I like both of the Moss horses today at Hollywood, in the 2nd and 5th races I think it is. I'm looking forward to hearing what three year olds might reappear for the Belmont. Any chance that we see Pyro or Z Fortune? Sorry to hear about Nobiz Like Shobiz's retirement...he is a good racehorse, too bad Big Brown turned out to be what a lot of people though Nobiz would become when he first appeared. Still, it was nice to see him do some running on the turf last year, and he should be a good stallion.

Posted by: wilson on May 24, 2008 at 09:48 AM

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I like this trash talking among Dutrow and Asmussen. It's very entertaining. Maybe I just have a low standard. Anyway...

I would put the chances of seeing Big Brown and Curlin together in the same race at somewhere around 20%. If it doesn't happen because Curlin goes to the Arc, I can respect that. If it doesn't happen because Big Brown is retired, I can't respect that. Though if they are going to retire the horse they obviously haven't told Dutrow.

Personally I'd like to see Curlin and Big Brown go head to head on dirt and the likely spots would be either the Whitney, Woodward, of Jockey Club Gold Cup. Personally, I'd like to see Big Brown in the Whitney but I realize that's not going to happen. If he's running in the Travers (and there's no reason to take the Woodward over the Travers) that wipes out the Woodward, and leaves the Jockey Club Gold Cup. But that might be a shorter break than Dutrow wants leading into the Breeders Cup. If Curlin goes to the Arc that wipes out the JCGC. Point being if Curlin is going to race Big Brown outside of the Breeders Cup, I'd like to see where it's going to happen.

This is from the front page:

Dutrow, in the Friday editions of Daily Racing Form, said a race between the two "would be good for racing, it would be good for us, it wouldn't be so good for them."

In response, Asmussen said that Dutrow "has laid out three races for his horse," referring to the Belmont, Travers, and Breeders' Cup Classic, which will be run on Santa Anita's synthetic surface. "Two of them are for 3-year-olds, and the other is on a synthetic surface, which neither one of us has ever raced on. Pretty daring of him, huh?"

Posted by: Greg on May 24, 2008 at 10:07 AM

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Laura,

Since you were wondering about Court Vision's status the other day, he is returning to my dads barn at Belmont on Sunday and is going to be worked on the grass as an experiment and if all goes well maybe run him in the Colonial Turf Cup. We are still thinking of dirt races later in the summer for him though, like at Saratoga, maybe Jim Dandy

Posted by: Riley on May 24, 2008 at 10:26 AM

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Let's get today's stakes races out of the way first:

Arlington Classic: (3) Sebastian County

Hanshin: (4) Steve's Double, (6) Coragil Cat

Louisville: (1) Lattice, (7)Pickapocket

Sheepshead Bay: (7) Flawless Treasure

Good luck everybody :)

Posted by: Arazi on May 24, 2008 at 10:53 AM

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I'm intrigued by OCHRE tomorrow in the Sheepshead Bay. Enought to make a small wager at a great price. She went to the front in her last race at a mile and a half and never looked back. With no other early speed signed on here she should get the same trip. The only question is her Beyer's are a bit light for this bunch. However, I'm going with the theory that she was geared down at the end of her last race and, being lightly raced, she's still on the improvement.She should provide a thrill for backers at about 10-1 or so.
Maurakalana , Hostess and J'Ray will all try to run her down in the lane.Look for a blanket finish.

Hanshin-AP 9th- LOVANGO freaked in his only poly start at ...... AP. Should get an absolute dream trip stalking from the outside against need-the-lead types Spotsgone, Stonehouse, and Throng. Leading rider RR Douglas gets the call.Should be winner winner chicken dinner.

Will look to take a shot ata price in the Arlingtom Classic. SEBASTION COUNTY goes to turf for the first time, but should handle it. In a race full of stalkers he looks to be the most forwardly placed of them so he should get first run when Meal Penalty starts backing up in the lane. If he handles the turf he has a great shot at M/L 10-1.

Posted by: cayman01 on May 24, 2008 at 10:56 AM

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However, HBO Real Sports has an expose of the horse slaughter issue that is shocking and far more damaging to racing than what happened to Eight Belles.

HBO went to Mountaineer Park and tracked one of the horses that went from being an also-ran in a race to being auctioned off for meat consumption a week later. They graphically show what happens to horses that go to slaughter and watching it will haunt you.

Horse slaughter is the killing of horses for human consumption. Unfortunately, HBO made it a horse racing issue as if the only horses being slaughtered were Thoroughbred racehorses. They totally ignored the thousands of horses of all breeds that meet this fate that have never set foot on a racetrack.

After Eight Belles broke down, many defended our sport by stating that the horses are well-fed and well cared for. That may be true for many, but HBO has shown its viewers that some horses that can't cut it on the track wind up with an unspeakable ending to their lives.

At no point in the piece done by Bernie Goldberg is racing allowed to defend itself or extol the efforts of Thoroughbred owner/breeders like Madeline and T. Boone Pickens, Roy and Gretchen Jackson, and Jeffrey Tucker to get Congress to ban horse slaughter as well as the interstate transportation of horses being shipped to slaughterhouses in Mexico and Canada. This was ambush TV at its worst and racing better respond powerfully because those graphic images of the horses being slaughtered will be there for a long time.

Spot Plays/Highlights/Weather

Posted by: larryk on May 24, 2008 at 11:06 AM

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Calibob,

Thanks for your piece on Celtic Dreamin. ROI is it.

Justin Z,

I'm in with JohnnyZ re: the comments with your stable.

Good Luck to all there is alot of great racing this weekend.

Posted by: larryk on May 24, 2008 at 11:10 AM

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Did anybody else notice how FAR OFF the morning line odds are in DRF lately???...what gives first Lauren goes and now this..what next??
I know i'm still from the stone age and actually but the PRINT version but it seems these cost saving moves are just gonna piss me off!!! sorry needed to vent...also stupid question time....why do certain tracks only have odd numbered or even numbered races???...thanks Finski

Posted by: Finski on May 24, 2008 at 11:34 AM

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Catching up this morning in Providence (celebrating another child's tuition obligations coming to an end!!) reading the past 24hours comments. WOW!!! Please let's all remember what a great blog this is - IMO, the best place to discuss issues in racing! I know I've had my own issues here at times, so "Do as I say, not as I do", but please let's try to keep the discussion civil!!

Justin, Riley, Sobhy,
Disclaimer: I love Prado. As a disgruntled handicapper, I often love to blame my pick's performance on jockey error rather than horse performance (or in my case...usually horseplayer/handicapper error!!) I think you should all be very proud of RT - he battled the best horse of his generation and for a brief moment even had the lead around the far turn. I agree with Laura - he deserves a break with a race against "lesser" competition. Congratulations and best of luck for continued success this year!!

SLB/Steve Byk,
Welcome to Formblog - BTW, I love your show - come back and visit here often! We should really try to promote this new wager - low takeout, $1 wager, quick race turnover - a multi-race horseplayer's dream!!

Just watched Mambo in Seattle win in CD10 from yesterday on replay!! My boy is back - watch out 3yos...

Good luck this weekend, including in the Brisnet contest (just did some "rapid-fire handicapping" - 3mins/race)!!! Gotta go watch my son's last college rugby game - the Alumni Blood (and I mean BLOOD) Match!!!

Posted by: Alan on May 24, 2008 at 11:49 AM

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LarryK and CaliBob,

Not invloved in CA action for a while now but your discussion about Slamthedoor made me look at the charts. Quite an interesting long shot you guys came up with. He indeed ran a good race but unfortunate that he was inside of the other speed horse. Few thoughts which might put more weight on his next attempt:

1. An outside post

2. He was featherweight in this race so was flying. A little more weight could force him to slow down and ideally stalk. I've noticed that in certain situations especially on the freaky speedy types, the bug angle backfires.

3. A 6F/7F distance would be perfect.

Hope you won't mind me intruding but I also like the way he ran and the odds he could be more or less the same next time. So maybe you can ring the bell next time he shows up :)

Posted by: Arazi on May 24, 2008 at 12:02 PM

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Out of the Box Thoughts for Hollywood Sat:5/24/08
to boast your ROI
1-1,3,7,6
2-We know the 2 will be tough, but what else. The 4 is an overlay on the ML at 12-1. After the 2, 4, 5 n 3.
3-Another race with a solid ml fav. how bout the 3,4 n 6 along with 7.
4-I really like the 1 here(and he was my contest selection)then 3, 13 and 14.
5-Again I'm going with my contest selection, we know the 9 will be tough. But I'm using the 4..How bout a headley horse under the radar, the 11, then the 9 and 8.
6-The 10, potts is a better jock then people think.
then the 6, 7, and dont blink twice if the 9 factors in somewhere.
7-The 6 got bet first out.
And gonna hang with him. Then the 3, 1 and 8.
8-I'm gonna go against the Dr. D here. I like the 2 Lord at War damsire fillies:ANd that being the 5 n 6. And how bout a bomb to crack the party the 4. And we'll also use the 3
9-How bout the 16. Lk at the first pps Whats up with that Dan? Go back 3 pps and you see may and a solid gatewk. So, were using the 16, then 8 and 13, then the 6. Big jk chge and blks off.

Posted by: larryk on May 24, 2008 at 12:13 PM

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Arazi, your more than welcome anytime.

We all learn from one another and this is a real honor to post here with so many great handicappers and individuals.

Posted by: larryk on May 24, 2008 at 12:17 PM

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Arazi,

Consider your door bell operational.
-------------------------

5th HOL today:

SHE'S CHEEKY should be a decent price, considering she went off at 40-1 in her debut. This filly was all full of run down the lane, and Talamo looked like he was riding a bullet train. She might have some serious ability. In addition, I happened to be watching TVG the other day after P. Eurton had won a race and they interviewed him after:

Interviewer - So, is there anything you have coming up, perhaps this weekend that you can share with us?

P. Eurton - Yes. We have a filly named She's Cheeky that should run on Saturday. We like her quite a bit. She's been training well, and we expect a good race.

I'm on board.

Posted by: CaliBob on May 24, 2008 at 12:20 PM

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Louisville Handicap --

LATTICE is the way to go here. I've followed this horse closely since he broke his maiden. You know when you find a horse that has that competitive spirit? The kind that always fight back, and seem to thrive from a challenge? He is a great example. I made the biggest win bet of my life on him in the American Derby at AP last year (paid $9.60). After the winter off, A. Stall has been cautious in bringing him back. Two big fields, a small stake and an alw at KEE. He's outrun his three yr-old numbers, without getting a victory. That is what I want to see, plus his odds will be helped because of not winning.
He should get the distance (DI = 1.80 CD = 0.50 ), and this is a sub-par graded field.
On a side note - Riley - Do you know why they took this horse away from your Dad? It must have been a downer since this is one talented colt.

Posted by: CaliBob on May 24, 2008 at 12:26 PM

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Our last 2 horses this week, out west have fizzled... But, let's take a shot with Bruce back in the 2nd @ Bel. w/ an AP Jet firster- I'm Entitled- w/ his his "go to" rider right now, Rajiv Maragh. Bruce says he's pretty good- so I'm expecting big things, and am going to take a shot myself. If that doesn't work out - I will def. use him in the 8th w/ Of All Times. (BNL- did win 5 yesterday!!!!! (1-1 @ Bel/ 4-6 @ Mth w/ a 2nd @ 9-1).- Strike while the iron is HOT!

All, Justin:
Sorry for that comeback- and you probably didn't even mean much by it. I just get sensitive about Bustin b/c when you are from a claiming outfit and you get a chance to breed and own an undefeated G1 winner- it's really something special. Like I said pick anyone of our "other" horses and knock them- Hell I'll even join in ;).
Best of luck w/ Premium Wine in the Met- wish we could be there (but, pointing to the Vanderbilt now @ the Spa). Hoping we can be flattered by a winning performance. Because, many of the "experts" are still saying who has BS beaten? (As is the case w/ Big BRown- Everyone who has lined up in the starting gate beside him.

Posted by: Steve V. on May 24, 2008 at 12:55 PM

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PGM
I really enjoy your "Paul's Picks and Ponderings",
great job!
Uncle Steve's "little project"has become a wonderful site and tool.
Thank you Uncle Steve!
Hopefully I'll be able to catch the next live chat...
Belmont, anyone?
......................

Hey Alan...
Was that a 'Dancing with the Stars' performance by "Mambo in Seattle"? ...your boy is back!

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on May 24, 2008 at 01:30 PM

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Arlington race 8
Meal Penalty/Amazing Results
Belmont race 9
Flawless Treasure/J'Ray

Have a happy and safe Memorial Day Weeken everyone.

Posted by: Tony on May 24, 2008 at 01:53 PM

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Here's the Irish 2000 for anyone who wants to keep up with the Euros:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAA2efk7xQI

IMO, New Approach never fired and Henrythenavigator won this one pretty easily. He's now completed the English/Irish double and is probably the top male miler in Europe right now.

Posted by: C on May 24, 2008 at 02:20 PM

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Just got back in town, so I am running late. Here are the first three races:

HOLLYWOOD PARK – Saturday (May 24, 2008)

Race 1

WORKING MAN BLUES has proven to be equally adept at running on turf or the main track. He seems to have his problems at the start, but runs for a team that is a moon shot 44% for the year. REEL PRIME, seems well, real prime to hit at this level. He has held his own in his turf routes with a record of 3-1-1-0, has a live work set as well. COME IN ALMIGHTY just missed last out at this distance on turf. Any improvement will make him very live.

Working Man Blues (5/2)
Reel Prime (4/1)
Come in Almighty (3/1)

Dr. Derango: HIGH STAKES SILVER (8/1) has been hanging out with the tough guys – getting Georgie Boy, Madeo, Behindatthebar, and Two Step Salsa in the four races he didn’t win. I am suspicious of the drop into the claiming ranks, but a surface and jockey change may be just the ticket for this one.

Race 2

Wow, a very tough local handicap race. MADEO has been ratcheting it up in his last couple of races, with a very powerful, convincing win last out against very good competition. EXUMA was a maiden I touted several times who came alive last out with Rosario (who stays) and ran a very nice 1:48/3 at this distance. BINGHAM sneaks across the border from Arizona with a win on turf and dirt. Think there is more to this one than meets the eye, and think the extra furlong will be a big plus.

Madeo (8/5)
Exuma (3/1)
Bingham (6/1)

Dr. Derango: He tagged me last out, but not again. HARLENE (4/1) is a Decarchy who finds a way to win, and in his last at this distance he crashed the party at 34/1. Won’t get that this time, but 8/1 would not surprise.

Race 3

LEMONETTE is back home after her European tour through Britain and Germany. Certainly has the leg to get the distance and her first run in North America was a very nice second to Forest Melody in a $77K allowance. RANSOM CAPTIVE missed by a head in her last at a mile. May be suspect at the distance. LE CIRQUE was right behind the top pick in her last at this distance, and followed that up with a miss by a nose at 10F.

Lemonette (3/1)
Ransom Captive (8/5)
Le Cirque (5/1)

Dr. Derango: LA VOLI (5/1) has had her share of traffic problems, and gets a short field this time to do her thing. Could see a drift up in odds with the top two drawing heavy money.

Posted by: Steve T on May 24, 2008 at 02:47 PM

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CaliBob,

At 6-1, I'm all in to get 'Cheeky ...

Good Luck!

Posted by: Arazi on May 24, 2008 at 02:51 PM

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Calibob,

Claiborn wasn't happy with the job my dad was doing so they replaced him with Al Stall. Not just Lattice but all the horses we had with them. My dad thought he did the best job he could but things don't always work out. Lattice is a nice horse and he'll deffinetly be the competition in the stake today

Posted by: Riley on May 24, 2008 at 02:59 PM

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Here are the next three:

Race 4

Kind of a strange race, imagine that an $8K claimer being weird… TRAFFIC UPDATE is coming back off of his year long layoff working like a crazy horse and is running for a new barn. Keeping with the theme, LAKE DAYJUR is another coming back from a layoff (one day shy of two years) with two 1:12 works in a row. SETH THE CANDEYMAN likes the track surface better than the dirt at Bay Meadows, so the last is a throw out. His last sprint on Cushion was a win at $12.5K.

Traffic Update (6/1)
Lake Dayjur (8/1)
Seth the Candeyman (8/1)

Dr. Derango: RENEGADE CIELO seems to be one that will like the Cushion surface of Hollywood Park – kind of a dirt is too hard, turf is too soft, Cushion is just right, you know like the porridge thing with the bears…

Race 5

SHE’S CHEEKY almost caught Silk Thunder in her first run at 42/1. The additional distance should put her at the line first. INDIAN WAY had a horrible start and still made it back to third, beaten by a length to a very good Tamerin. Runs for Eoin Harty and ridden by Nakatani. VIXANA made a very nice debut, finishing behind Carmel Coffee and Felicitee and then went on the shelf for six months. Works say she is ready and Shirrefs hits at an insane 44% off of the layoff.

She’s Cheeky (6/1)
Indian Way (7/2)
Vixana (3/1)

Dr. Derango: Time to get the checkbook out, think I have a live big payer in LOVE TO SIPHON (20/1). Works have been lights out, first run she got shuffled back mid race and faded. This could be a moon shot (or could just be a voyage into Outer Space…)!

Race 6

FRANGIPANNI is probably right back to where she belongs, in a $25K claimer at 6 furlongs. CHICKS RULE broke her maiden, twice! Bejarano seems to have made the difference as she just cruised to a huge win last out. THEMIS VALENTINE has the speed and the class, it’s just a matter of can she hold on.

Frangipanni (6/1)
Chicks Rule (5/1)
Themis Valentine (3/1)

Dr. Derango: Not the most consistent bunch, that’s for sure. ANGEL’S REWARD was nothing spectacular and was washing around until she picked up Rosario, and her last two were her best two. Expect the odds to end up higher than the morning line.

Posted by: Steve T on May 24, 2008 at 03:27 PM

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A pick for today...Hollywood #2

#5 Bingham...
liked the way he split horses last time out to win (Turf Paradise 4/13 #8) like the turf to dirt angle, and pedigree (out of Monarchos) says he'll like to go longer.
6-1 M/L odds

#6 Harlene...
Decarchy, Uncle Steve taught me something, never to discount these. And since he finally won one, last time out...he may have liked it!
4-1 M/L odds.

I also like the Baze/Baze jockey angle.

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on May 24, 2008 at 03:28 PM

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A debate on Z Humor and distance. I can join in on this one, lol. Let's see what his pedigree says.

Z-Humor (Distorted Humor - Offtheoldblock by A.P. Indy) is a dark bay colt of average height (around 16+ hands) with a nicely sloping sholder, well-defined hip and a powerful hind end. He certainly has his sire's conformation, right down to the shorter fore-cannons and angeled hocks. He has a friendly, agressivly playful attitude one would expect of a colt, but tends to gets nervous before races.

His sire, Distorted Humor, (Forty Niner-Danzig's Beauty by Danzig) ($300,000, Winstar Farm, Versailles, Kentucky) won from 6F - 8F. Many consider him to be a sire of sprinter/miler types, although when bred to mares with Seattle Slew as their paternal grand-sire, he has sired classic distance winners. (Any Given Saturday, Funny Cide). When I researched this "nick" I found only 3 other horses fitting this pattern and was surprised not to find more examples. TrueNicks gives this an A++ rating, so owners of mares with Seattle Slew as the paternal grandsire might want to give Distorted Humor some consideration.

Althought Z-Humor's dam, the cleverly named Offtheoldblock out of Chip, didn't make much of an impact on the track, she's off to a good start as a broodmare with ZHumor being her first foal. Chip, Offtheoldblock's dam was considered a sprinter but she did win the 9F Rampart, and came in third in the Molly Pitcher Breeders' Cup Handicap. To date, Offtheoldblock is the best producer out of Chip, although her full sister, Dancinandsingin earned close to $70,000.

So much for the background, but what you really want to know is, how far is ZHumor bred to go? I'll get to that now. Let's take a look at the numbers.

DP = 7-7-13-0-1 (28) DI = 2.73 CD = 0.68

ZHumor's dosage profile shows a good dose of classic points, mainly garnered from his second generational damsire, A.P. Indy. (Intermediate/Classic points) More intermediate/classi points are added from Danzing, Seattle Slew tosses in some Brilliant/Classic points, as does Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer. Hail To Reason is a significant stamina line and is represented in ZHumor's pedigree top and bottom through his son Mr. Leader and daughter Reason to Earn. Hail To Reason is a Hardy chef de race. Hardy chefs of race are sources of stamina and they are outstanding both as sires and broodmare sires. Cigar has a significant sex- balanced duplication of Hail to Reason. Princequello adds some solid points through his son, Round Table and daughters Somethingroyal and How. Ribot, another classic/professional influence is cross-balanced through his sonsTom Rolfe on the sire side and Alto Ribot, the grandsire of Chip.

ZHumor's Dosage Index is well in the "stayer" catagory with a low 2.73 and Center of Distribution is an also low 0.68.

Let's look at his dam's numbers:

Conduit Mare Profile = 5-5-3-6-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.72

Triads = 13-14-17

Evaluating the Conduit Mare Profile, which is similar to Dosage, but evaluates the female aptitudes in a pedigree, shows that he receives some decent classic-solid points, probably from the before-mentioned Alto Pride.

So how far will ZHumor go already! I do tend to get longwinded when I get lost in pedigrees. Well, he's already gutted out a tenatious win at 1 1/8 miles, and 1 1/4 miles is well within his limitations according to his pedigree. His only drawback is being too eager and nervous before his races as a three-year-old. Hopefully, his temper will mellow with a little more maturity and he can show us what he's capable of.

Posted by: laura on May 24, 2008 at 03:52 PM

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Horse Alert!!

Monastic Springs (Sadler's Wells out of Ipe Tombe) makes his debut in Race 7 at Belmont!

Posted by: laura on May 24, 2008 at 03:57 PM

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Helps if I spell the name right: Ipi Tombe - http://www.ipitombe.com/

Posted by: laura on May 24, 2008 at 03:58 PM

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Here's the last batch:

Race 7

The remnants sale for MSW’s, with a slew of 4 and 5 year old maidens. TOTE’S HUMDINGER just missed at a mile and was overtaken at the end of 9F, so the right answer is a distance between those, like I don’t know, a mile and a sixteenth?? DAKOTA PHONE is another who has had the misfortune of running into the best horses in his previous runs. None of them here today. Michael Baze is probably the best selection as jock for this runner. KSAR GHILANE was all over the track at the end of his debut run, but works since are significantly improved. The second out, in a route without a lot of pace pressure could be an ideal set up.

Tote’s Humdinger (9/2)
Dakota Phone (7/2)
Ksar Ghilane (3/1)

Dr. Derango: ANATOLIAN GOLD (8/1) did not fare well in his debut in a sprint, not surprising for a son of Seeking the Gold. Think that a route will bring out his best.

Race 8

Hard to get past the entry of the two Unusual Heats – CHRISTIANA’S HEAT and AMERICA’S FRIEND. Either one would be a selection on their own, to get both is a deal. LOCHINVAR’S GOLD has been running with the varsity – picking up Zilla and Intangaroo in her last. Rosario almost got her up in her last, and she was flat flying. That was her first run on turf, her second run could indeed strike gold. SUPPOSITION has been on my watch list since the Middle Ages, and now finally gets a shot at a turf sprint. She has two runs in Grade 1 stakes and keeps Bejarano

Christiana’s Heat/America’s Friend (4/1)
Lochinvar’s Gold (5/1)
Supposition (5/2)

Dr. Derango: HAMMET STAR (10/1) has two turf sprints – the downhill she won, the next she had problems galore and still managed to finish only a length behind Bahama Breeze, Macadamia and Missvinski.

Race 9

What a mess this $40K maiden claimer is, not the best betting race (unless you like erratic runners). HUMIDITY is a six year old Unusual Heat mare who seems to be rounding into form for this race. Last work says she is good to go and the team hits at 29%. PRINCESS ARJUMAND is a Decarchy baby who just stopped last out. Turf wasn’t her thing and a return to the main track and a drop in class makes her live. DANA SISSTAR is another coming back from a long layoff, but her last two are her best two, both seconds at this level.

Humidity (9/2)
Princess Arjumand (8/1)
Dana Sisstar (7/2)

Dr. Derango: Here we go again with a bunch of under par runners, so time to look at the first time starters. TERRA BELLA (20/1) is a late starter for a first time trainer. Has a very live work set and the additional year of maturity may just be the ticket.

Posted by: Steve T on May 24, 2008 at 04:06 PM

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Hmmmmmm...

After the recent "spirited" discussion on Z-Humor, 10f, better at a mile, pedigree, etc, etc, etc..
What do I see:
He's entered in the G1, 1 mile, Metropolitan Hdcp.
http://www.drf.com/entries/26/eBEL26.html#10

...with friend Premium Wine!

You gotta love this group! HA!

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on May 24, 2008 at 04:11 PM

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Finski,

Our "little" Ohio tracks sometimes run what they call a 7&7 with 7 races at Thistledown and 7 at either Beulah or River Downs. On days when they run alone they will usually run 8, 9 or 10 races.
We keep voting down the slot machines here so people can get on buses and take their money to other states and our tracks just somehow keep their heads above water.
I do enjoy going to Thistledown and I am looking forward to the Ohio Derby next Saturday though!

Posted by: Steveincleveland on May 24, 2008 at 04:32 PM

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Hollywood Park, 5/24/08

I am late as well, so starting with race #4:

Race #4 - Mammoth Power, Seth the Candyman, Caddymaster, Currency Trader
Race #5 - Free Flying Soul, Vixana, Indian Way, Ford Gallop
Race #6 - Chick's Rule, No Name Just Game, Themis Valentine, Warren's Mystery
Race #7 - Ksar Ghilane, Waveland Avenue, Dakota Phone, Tote's Humdinger
Race #8 - Supposition (GB), ofthe CatsleLochinvar's Gold, Christiana's Heat
Race #9 - Humidity, Dana Sisstar, Zanda Blue, Bondi Babe

Good luck to everyone today. Happy Memorial Day to all. A sincere thank you to all who serve, and have served this great country. Be safe everyone.

Posted by: Van Savant on May 24, 2008 at 04:47 PM

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Whoa Laura,

Superb call on Monastic Springs...

Posted by: Arazi on May 24, 2008 at 05:04 PM

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Nasty spill at Monmouth today in the Elkwood. Can anyone provide the status of these horses and jocks? I believe the only ones who did not get up and walk away were Silent Roar and his jock, Stewie Elliot.

Posted by: Sedonia on May 24, 2008 at 05:10 PM

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Laura:

"Monastic Springs (Sadler's Wells out of Ipe Tombe) makes his debut in Race 7 at Belmont!"

$27.80, he was quite green but much the best and survived the inquiry. I really loved Ipi Tombe, she blew away the boys at Dubai a few years ago. Caught the P-4 that day with Moon Ballad winning the World Cup.

Slainte and Congrats! on your.. Horse Alert!!

Posted by: James Mc. on May 24, 2008 at 05:32 PM

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Sedonia,

Our horse, Classic Campaign, had to jump over the horse that went down and stumbled and threw our jockey, Eddie Castro. The horse and jock are both fine thankfully. Hopefully the others in the spill are ok too.

Posted by: Riley on May 24, 2008 at 06:18 PM

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Some fantistic calls today;

First Laura, and ..

then Dan with Meal Penalty (can't believe he went off at 7-1) and then Transduction Gold (34-1) for a sweet exacta with Lattice. Just wondering how did you bet Louisville H? Tri? super?

CaliBob, Did you make the second highest bet on Lattice today or it surpassed your previously highest win bet? Your faith in him was simply awesome.

I feel very proud of such a great group handicappers.

Congratulations to all but remember there is a lot more to be made this weekend so keep up the spirit and keep rolling.

And finally to the Zayats and Riley, congrats on winning with Monster Drive. Got a little exciting in the end but showed a lot of heart and goodluck with Z Humor on Monday.

Best,
Arazi

Posted by: Arazi on May 24, 2008 at 06:30 PM

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Laura –

I was wondering who was going to trot out the thoroughly discredited Dosage system in order to proclaim Z Humor's suitability to 10 furlongs. (I can hear the howls of dismay already.)

So let me see if I'm clear on this. You, and presumably the other True Believers, would argue that because Z Humor has a certain "Dosage Profile", he therefore possesses the stamina to stay 10 furlongs. Never mind that the brilliantly conceived system UTTERLY IGNORES his sire, one of his two most important genetic influences (along with his similarly ignored dam). Oh, and it also ignores his paternal grandsire, Forty Niner, and Norquestor as well.

But apparently that doesn't matter to you, as his DP serves your purposes in this case.

Z Humor's sire was a sprinter/miler, and is a sire of sprinter/milers; his dam was a sprinter/miler; his second dam was a sprinter. But the Dosage system proclaims him to be suited to 10 furlongs!

That really tells you all you need to know about how deeply and intrinsically flawed the system actually is.

And for those who are paying attention, it really should put the whole Z Humor issue to rest.

Posted by: Tinky on May 24, 2008 at 06:41 PM

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MY CONTEST RANT. ON SAT.I WAS
IN AN ONLINE HANDICAPPING CONTEST. 4 OF THE 8 RACES WERE MAIDEN RACES. TWO OF THE WINNERS PAID OVER THE CAP. IN FACT, ONE PAID 144.00. THIS HORSE HAD BEEN OUT OF THE MONEY IN ALL 7 STARTS. THE ONLY GOOD THING ABOUT THIS AND OTHER ONLINE CONTESTS IS THAT THEY ARE FREE. THE REALITY IS THEY HAVE NOTHING IN COMMON WITH EVEN AVERAGE HANDICAPPING SKILLS. WHEN THEY FIRST STARTED, THE FORMAT WAS THE MOST WINNERS AND TOTAL DOLLARS EARNED. THE NEW FORMULA IS MOST DOLLARS EARNED. ANOTHER PRICE TODAY WAS A SECOND PLACE THAT WENT OFF AT 60-1. ALL YOU NEED TO DO NOW IS PICK THE LONGEST PRICE HORSE IN ANY OF THESE MAIDEN OR CHEAP CLAIMING RACES AND YOU HAVE A GREAT SHOT AT EVENTUALLY GOING TO VEGAS IN THE FINALS. I CAN'T UNDERSTAND HOW SUCH HORRIBLE RACES MAKE UP AN ENTIRE CONTEST CARD. NO STAKES OR GRADED RACES. THESE CONTESTS ARE A JOKE AND I'M DONE.

Posted by: TONY FICARO on May 24, 2008 at 07:08 PM

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Laura,
Congrats on the selection, missed being away from the PC.

Nice job...

Posted by: larryk on May 24, 2008 at 07:26 PM

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What a terrifying spill at Hllywd.

Ugh. Hate that.

Posted by: larryk on May 24, 2008 at 07:46 PM

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Tinky,

Is it your goal to piss off everyone on this board? So far all I have seen from you are a bunch of passive aggressive posts and personal attacks. You are obviously a legend in your own mind, and we are all idiots. So what exactly is your purpose in posting?

Posted by: Steve T on May 24, 2008 at 08:16 PM

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Greetings,

I posed the same question to Steve Crist and would like your honest opinion as well.

In Race 7 at Belmont, watch the head-on and please let me know if Prado should have been dq.

The non-dq (I played the 5) cost me about 10k as I was alive with a 20 double paying 175 and had a 25 pick 3 ending with Dutrow in the 8th (who won) and likely would have paid 800 for 2.

I was at the track, saw the head on and thought it was conclusive that he would be dq as he drifted into the favorite who caused a chain reaction knocking 2-3 horses to the outside off stride. I follow the adage "The longer it takes, the worse it is" meaning a likely dq and thought after 10-15 minutes of reviewing the inquiry, they were trying to find out where to place Prado. When they announced it was official, people boo and I sat there with a dumb-founded look on my face, wondering why I bother to wager. It's tough enough handicapping but when stewards make bogus calls, perhaps time to quit since it was a 10,000 + difference...

Thanks

Posted by: KYL Syndicate on May 24, 2008 at 08:22 PM

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thank you, monster drive ran great!
Steve, we believe bustin beat some of the best colts in the country, just ignore what people say about your horses, half the people don't know what they are saying.

Posted by: Justin Zayat on May 24, 2008 at 08:31 PM

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Laura,

Great call on Monastic Springs!
--
Justin,

Congrats on Monster Drive! He had the heart of a monster today. I hope he comes out healthy and can go onward and upward from here.
--
Arazi,

She's Cheeky just didn't have it to beat this quality of horse today. She was a 3 yr-old facing older. She'll be ok.
--

As for myself, I was having a horrendous day. I had lost everything... and was down to my last $75. I put $40 W on Lattice and three different straight $15 EX w/ him on top of three price horses I liked. One of them happened to be Transduction Gold (36-1). The $1 Ex paid $101, and I was golden. That is serious luck right there. Nevertheless, one of our Bluebloggers posted a huge pick of Transduction Gold, and I can't locate who it was. I wanted to thank him or her for reminding me of the quality this horse can show, especially when he gets a nice easy lead.

--

That was such a terrible spill at HOL in the 7th. I would like to express my deepest sadness to the connections of Waveland Avenue. Does anyone know if Jose Valdivia is ok? It was strange and sad to watch.

If this kind of thing happened at Monmouth or Churchill instead of Hollywood, you would immediately hear voices proclaiming it was just another fatality caused by those dirt surfaces. What a lie. But when a terrible breakdown like this happens, what can be said in reverse? Damn those artificial surfaces? Most people know it isn't the surfaces.
Synthetic tracks don't prevent injuries. Dirt and synthetics both have their problems for horses. There is no perfect surface.

Posted by: CaliBob on May 24, 2008 at 08:49 PM

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Very scary scene at Hol Park R7. I'm hoping and praying both jocks are ok. Also, being optimistic that at least one of the horses was able to walk away...

From what I've heard, hitting the cushion or polytrack is like hitting concrete for a jock. Tyler Baze went down extremely hard. Any updates on horse/rider would be appreciate.

Can we really keep saying "just another day"?

Posted by: Sedonia on May 24, 2008 at 09:17 PM

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Dan and Laura- nice selections
today.

Lattice(sp) paid pretty well overall, so congrats to Calibob. Tony, and Matt. Calibob, I know you were a big fan of Lattice going in.

larryk and steve t. you also had some nice winners at Hollywood Park.

The Captain and the formblogers did fairly well this Saturday. Good luck all, tomorrow and Memorial Day.

Posted by: chicago gerry on May 24, 2008 at 09:27 PM

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Arazi, I forgot to mention your good selection on Lattice.

Tony you rightfully went along with Dan on Meal Penalty in the Arlington Classic,
so congratulations on that.

Posted by: chicago gerry on May 24, 2008 at 09:33 PM

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CaliBob and All -

Bob, nice to end a tough day with a $1500 exacta hit at CD. I thought about using both those horses in an exacta box, but then realized I couldn't bet them from home -- thanks to all the powers that be for locking me out.

Tough loss by Madeo in today's R2 at Hollywood Park -- poor guy pulled himself right up after looking like he was going to win by more than a few --- instead he loses and it costs me the early P4. Might not have paid much but it surely would been better than losing my $30.

And agreed a very tough spill to watch in Hollywood Park's R7 -- it's just that kind of break down that I fear seeing a jockey also lose his life. Amazing that both Jose Valdivia Jr and Tyler Baze walked away to actually come back and ride R8. RIP Waveland Avenue.

As well, doesn't it seem like they should consider a race like the tragic R7 to be a no contest given most every horse behind the tragic break down of Waveland Avenue was most surely compromised? Just a thought.

- RobertSD

Posted by: RobertSD on May 24, 2008 at 10:01 PM

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Question-

Play Woodbine a bit and noticed a horse running in the 2nd out of Patrol. Owner is Ramon Dominguez trained by Sandra Dominguez. Didn't Ramon Dominguez used to ride Patrol occasionally. Don't remember ever seeing a jockey as an owner.

Posted by: illiniwes on May 24, 2008 at 10:16 PM

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Calibob,

I know I didn't give credit for Transduction Gold. I wouldn't bet against that horse and Glenney. That pair seems sneak up ever oncve in awhile. I was on him the last time at Kland though.

I cashed a couple of nice pk3's last yr. with those two.
Nice Job.

JValdiva and TB both got up and walked off and rode in the next race. One of them didn't ride the feature.
Such a horrible spill.

Posted by: larryk on May 24, 2008 at 10:21 PM

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RobertSD,

Agree with wholeheartdly with that race should've called NC.

ChicagoGerry,

Thanks..

Calibob,

It was Dan the Man giving out that selection of TG.

Posted by: larryk on May 24, 2008 at 10:26 PM

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Certainly, if they run true to their best form, horses like The Tin Man and Perfect Drift can serve as counterweight to racing's self-destructive retirement of healthy young stallions. The old guys anchor the game, spreading lore in their wake. Perfect Drift, for instance, used to carry a locket of John Henry's mane beneath his saddle when he raced.

"We lost that at some point," Reed noted. "But now my son has found a small replica of a heart that Perfect Drift can carry."

In honor of Dr. Reed's profession, no doubt.

"No, actually because of The Tin Man," Reed replied. "You know, from the Wizard of Oz - 'If I only had a heart.' "

It can't hurt. But heart is one thing Perfect Drift has never lacked.

Kinda cool...

Posted by: larryk on May 24, 2008 at 10:34 PM

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illniews,

Ramon Dominguez never rode Patrol. Mostly Jerry Bailey and Mike Luzzi a few times

Posted by: Riley on May 24, 2008 at 10:34 PM

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Dan did you have the exacta box in the Louisville Handicap? It paid $200 for $2.

I did not play, but used Transduction Gold in an online contest. Unfortunately the contest only paid "win," not "win-place." I could not get to the track to take advantage. Oh well.

Posted by: Tony Kelso on May 24, 2008 at 10:49 PM

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SR Vegas,

Thanks for the compliments on my blog over at Uncle Steve's site.

I will post my picks there for more of this weekend's free races, such as the G1 Met Mile. I'll put a link here, just as I did for the Sheepshead Bay H.

Tinky,

I've never agreed with Dosage, since it's a kind of fuzzy math (and I don't believe in fuzzy math).

I also think you picked a horrible example to explain your case with Distorted Humor. Johnnyz is correct that Distorted Humor sired Flower Alley (2005 Travers), Funny Cide (2003 KY Derby, 2003 Preakness, 2004 Jockey Club Gold Cup), as well as Any Given Saturday (2007 Brooklyn, et. Al.) And these are the most notable of many horses to win at or beyond nine furlongs.

You make the argument in your own post, Tinky, that a sharp miler can win the Whitney (Commentator) or the Haskell (War Emblem) or the Jim Dandy. Ask me where the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Travers Stakes appear on your list. And that's just US races.

Now THAT is some Fuzzy Math.

Posted by: PGM on May 25, 2008 at 12:18 AM

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Laura,

Really nice pick on Manastic Springs. Also nice work on Z Humor. One thing about a pedigree profile, the numbers are what they are. No track bias/variant. It is just black and white.

I really like Distorted Humor as sire. At the end of 2007, of his 480 named foals in six crops, 251 were winners, (52%), 79 2 yr olds won,(16%), but that number jumps to 22% when you factor in that only 352 actually entered the starting gate. That is getting close to 1 in 4 that start in a maiden will win.

Distorted Humor has been a cash cow for me. How can I not like him? Also will add Distorted Humor had 51 stakes winners in that group, (11%).

C. Thanks for the video of Henrythenavigator. he is really a nice looking colt.
I am sure you caught this, but did you notice his stride extension in the last furlong? I agree with you, was way the best today.

Dan, nice way to wear the captains hat. Great job picking them today!

Posted by: johnnyz on May 25, 2008 at 12:46 AM

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Laura,

Great pick today with Monastic Springs.

As well as kudos to Dan for Transduction Gold ( I think someone else also picked him but can't remember who).

Tinky,

I'll agree with you on Z Humor to a point. I didn't think he was Derby worthy and I do NOT know why he's being thrown to the wolves on Monday in the Met Mile ( Justin help us out here).Alot of folks here really liked him at the beginning of the year, but I wasn't one of them. IMHO he strikes me as being a decent Grade 3/allowance horse. Just my opinion.
His speed figures are not all that impressive, but neither were most of the horses' that ran in the Derby.
If the rest of the horses aren't any better than your horse (Except Big Brown) why not run and see if your horse can get the distance and maybe a Kentucky Derby placing?
IMO pedigree analysts
tend to put too much emphysis
on pedigree in their handicapping. Remember, the HORSE doesn't know his pedigree, he doesn't know he's NOT supposed to get the classic distance. So give him a shot and see what shakes out.That's how we get the Funny Cides and Smarty Jones' of the TC Series.Hell, look at Big Brown! He wasn't supposed to like the 1 1/4 miles of the Derby. You take you shot and let the horse prove if he can do it (BB)or not (ZH, and others). Prove the pedigree right or wrong.

Justin,

Back to Z Humor for a minute.
I'm not picking on you or anybody else at Zayat, I just do not understand the running of ZH in the Met Mile. He hasn't moved forward at all from his 2yo season and running him against those beasts on Monday could ruin him. You guys did right by Massive Drama in not running him in the Derby, why not do the same with this horse? Give him some time to regroup
and point him towards the B tour of three year olds ( W.VA. Derby, Indians Derby, etc.).

Oh, and to ALL,

That smell on the board tonight is the result of MY posted picks today. They stunk and still reak. Dan could you possibly remove them? Can't stand the sight or smell of 'em. My apologies to ALL especially any who played them.

And don't even ask how I did in the Brisnet tourney!!!!!!

Posted by: cayman01 on May 25, 2008 at 01:40 AM

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Riley,

Thanks for the details on the Lattice situation. I think Claiborne would be making a mistake to take horses from your Dad. But so be it. Easy come easy go.

Chicago Gerry & RobertSD,

Thanks for the props on the day today. It's nice to cash tickets, but it is just as good to come on here and catch the congratulations of your peers.

Good Luck to everyone tomorrow... but more importantly on Monday.

Posted by: CaliBob on May 25, 2008 at 02:17 AM

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CaliBob,

'Cheeky ran fine and she lost place in the last strides to a co-favorite so no problems there. It's always a good call when you think favorite could be beaten.

I found it funny how similar our days looked. After seeing SABASTIAN COUNTY (Arlington Classic) getting hammered and then witnessing FLAWLESS TREASURE (Sheepshead Bay) getting eased, it dawned on me that maybe it isn't my day. But then came LATTICE and the gambler in me piled up whatever budget left for the day on him. Things changed suddenly and CORAGIL CAT (Hanshin) made the evening much pleasant and hence the day.

I have to start playing CA circuit again because a lot of wonderful handicapping tips, picks and help is available here which makes handicapping much more easier and fun.

Fare well over next two days all!!

Posted by: Arazi on May 25, 2008 at 05:53 AM

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Sedonia:

Silent Roar was "vanned off" according to today's online DRF. I was watching the scene from highest point in Mth grandstand and Silent Roar appeared off in his right front but he seemed to be putting his leg fully to the ground. Stewart Elliott was taken to hospital to look at his back.

monmouthisajoke and Dan:

Nice call on Transduction Gold- too bad he couldn't hang on.

And nice post on the Curlin/Big Brown trash talking. Dutrow's words don't bother me much though, and I think it is great that we don't see this constant gentlemanly BS we are so used to.

Posted by: Al Hattab on May 25, 2008 at 07:46 AM

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Steve –

"Is it your goal to piss off everyone on this board? So far all I have seen from you are a bunch of passive aggressive posts and personal attacks. You are obviously a legend in your own mind, and we are all idiots. So what exactly is your purpose in posting?"

Interesting questions, Steve. My purpose in the original post which started the recent firestorm was twofold. First, to point out that Zayat Stable, like those of many wealthy owners, tends to aim too high with some of their better horses. Secondly, and contrary to your "passive aggressive "characterization, I calmly and respectfully attempted to help Laura by pointing out that her public job application was not the best way to proceed.

Now here's where it becomes interesting. That simple post ignited a firestorm which clearly implied that because people connected with the Zayat stable post here, it was outrageous for someone (me, in this case) to be critical of them. That's a problem in and of itself, but I'll leave it for now.

Then the discussion went off on the tangent of whether Z Humor was suited to the Derby distance or not. I posted a number of times on the topic, and do admit that my patience wore a bit thin towards the end, so the tone of the later posts weren't as kind and gentle as they could have been.

But this is not about me versus anyone. There is an apparent broad misunderstanding of how to read pedigrees and categorize sires by many contributors to this blog. I've explained very clearly why Distorted Humor is considered, not just by me, but by every serious owner, trainer, breeder, and student of the game, to be principally a sire of sprinters and milers. It's not subjective; it's a clear-cut fact.

So I explained in a couple of different ways why that is the case, and why, in spite of A.P. Indy appearing in Z Humor's pedigree, he is, even on paper, much more likely to be a miler than anything else.

With respect to my recent post relating to Laura's Dosage post, you may not like the tone of it, but why do you ignore the substance? Laura is well liked and apparently well-respected on this blog. That's fine with me, and I have no particular interest in upsetting that apple cart. But it is well established that Dosage is a severely flawed system, and using it to justify the claim that Z Humor is suited to 10 furlongs is a perfect illustration of why that it is the case.

So I thought – and perhaps I was wrong – that some of the readers of this blog who might not have realized how misleading Dosage numbers can be, would appreciate a clear explanation, and that the discussion would help people to interpret pedigrees more carefully and accurately in the future.

I am sorry that Laura took a hit in my post, but let's be honest about it: she's the "in-house" pedigree guru, and yet in this case used a wholly inappropriate system in an attempt to bolster her case. That's not doing anyone – especially those who don't know much about pedigrees – a favor.

Clearly, and most importantly, most of the hullabaloo has been about my perceived criticisms of valued forum members, and not about the substance of my posts.

So, Steve, I take your point that the tone of some of my posts don't endear me to many readers. I'll try to be more careful in that regard. I am, in other words, open to constructive criticism. Now what about the substance of my posts? Do you disagree with them? And if so, in what way?

Posted by: Tinky on May 25, 2008 at 09:08 AM

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Hate to see breakdowns (obviously) but as far as ruling the race a no-contest, there's a big problem with that: These horses (even the claimers, etc.) can only run about 3 to 5 weeks in most cases, and, unless you've got a Stakes caliber horse, it's tough enough to make money (let alone even coming close to breaking even) without stewards "throwing races out". (And I'm guessing that no one who is asking for a "no contest" had any winning tickets on the race)

Going to Arlington today, but since I've been ICE COLD I'll only bore you with 3 picks-

1st- An interesting trainer angle landed me on 3-DARLA'S DELIGHT (thanks, formulater) trainer is 9% last 5 years but 23% over the last year) and has already popped at 17/1 at the meet.

4th-4-VICTORIANA goes from an Allowance win at Keeneland to a 50K stake at Arlington, BUT THE ALLOWANCE HAD A BIGGER PURSE! One of 2 with "outstanding" polysire (other is 1-Featherbed) and at 6/1 may offer value (Throwing the Pletcher chalk out, boxing 1/4/6 in the exacta, and trying to catch a bit of a price in a 6 horse race)

8th-8-CHIEF WHAT by outstanding polysire and won first start despite breaking thru the gate prior to the start. Seems to be a talented goof! 8/1 on a horse with talent seems like an intelligent chance to take.

Posted by: Stephen Taylor on May 25, 2008 at 10:52 AM

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I'm surprised no one has mentioned how explosive Mauralakana was in yesterday's Sheapshead Bay at Belmont. My, Oh my - she just laughed at them. The way she lengthened her stride and blew past her rivals reminded me of a "Gorella"-type rally, except for the fact that she was much closer to the leader. Regardless, I think Mauralakana is going to be ultra tough this year as it appears she has finally grown into the star I thought she was two years ago when she first came here.

Posted by: Sedonia on May 25, 2008 at 11:16 AM

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Folks:

Let's get back to business.

Anyone playing Belmont today?

I intend to play the late Pick4 and some other bets in the last four races.

$5 Pick 4: (4) Great Thought, (7) Grand Advice / (3) The Confidence Man, (10) Piquente Cat / (5) Looky Yonder, (6) Baroness Thatcher / (3) Eulogize, (9) Jocassee = $80

$1 Pick 4: (6) It's Not for Love / (3) The Confidence Man, (4) Defrizz, (10) Piquente Cat / (5) Looky Yonder, (6) Baroness Thatcher / (3) Eulogize, (9) Jocassee = $12

$1 Pick 4: (4) Great Thought,(6) It's Not for Love,(7) Grand Advice / (4) Defrizz / (5) Looky Yonder, (6) Baroness Thatcher / (3) Eulogize, (9) Jocassee = $12

BTW, is it just me or everyone feels that after months and months of Triple Crown talk and reading, it is an amazing feeling NOT to worry about it, at least for a short while?

Good luck to all.

Posted by: Arazi on May 25, 2008 at 12:08 PM

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Sedonia,

Agree w/ you in every way on Mauralakana. You hit all the points. She HAS developed incredibly well, and I give the credit to her connections. I remember handicapping the '06 Breeder's Cup, and liking her a whole lot as a three year-old w/ a race already in the states. She was a key single in a pk 6 I hit last year at CD, and I've always followed her, even in that dirt race I believe it was the Azeri at OP.
She absolutely inhaled the field yesterday after chasing ultra-soft fractions. I was very impressed. She reminded me of the closing kicks of Gorella, English Channel, and Lady of Venice (on her best day).

Posted by: CaliBob on May 25, 2008 at 12:38 PM

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Big Brown has 5/8' quarter crack. I'll still be betting Dennis Of Cork.

Posted by: Sedonia on May 25, 2008 at 12:58 PM

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Tinky,

The issue is not the content of the posts it is in the delivery of the message. Let's take a look at the pejorative nuggets in your post:

"I was wondering who was going to trot out the thoroughly discredited Dosage system in order to proclaim Z Humor's suitability to 10 furlongs. (I can hear the howls of dismay already.)"

Read: Aha! I was waiting for one of you morons to use dosage as justification.

"So let me see if I'm clear on this. You, and presumably the other True Believers, would argue that because Z Humor has a certain "Dosage Profile"

Read: anyone who uses dosage figures is a Borg idiot.

"But apparently that doesn't matter to you, as his DP serves your purposes in this case."

Read: You are being purposely ignorant and self serving.

"And for those who are paying attention, it really should put the whole Z Humor issue to rest."

Read: So for the rest of you mindless droids, here is the truth from Tinkyville.

If you like we can go back and look at the previous posts to the Zayats and Dan. The point remains the same, no one can see your message for the pointed (and personal) narrative.

You can get your point across without the little "digs" every three feet. We have a history of treating each other with respect, regardless of whether we disagree.

C and I have had more than our share of clashes, yet we remain civil - in fact he was my first reviewer on the DRF Past Performance and Handicapping Guides. I don't always agree with him, but I do hear his message without being offended.

"Now here's where it becomes interesting. That simple post ignited a firestorm which clearly implied that because people connected with the Zayat stable post here, it was outrageous for someone (me, in this case) to be critical of them. That's a problem in and of itself, but I'll leave it for now."

The Zayats are justifiably proud of their operation and frankly their enthusiasm is refreshing - why wouldn't they be excited about their horses? You may disagree with the way they have placed their horses, but they are spending tens of millions of dollars to get to the top level of racing. They don't get special treatment here, but we are also cognizant that Justin (and Riley) are only 16 and they should be exempt from the acid bath... How many of the large racing operations have their Racing Manager post on a blog and solicit suggestions for the next placement of their horses? They do.

"I am sorry that Laura took a hit in my post, but let's be honest about it: she's the "in-house" pedigree guru, and yet in this case used a wholly inappropriate system in an attempt to bolster her case. That's not doing anyone – especially those who don't know much about pedigrees – a favor."

I have been working with Laura on our Freshman Sires reports and find her analysis to be lucid and accurate. Her conclusions are usually spot on. If she chooses to use Dosage as part of her analysis, that is her prerogative.

The problem with any figure that attempts to quantify any part of horse racing is that you can usually punch holes in them - as we have mentioned time and again on Beyers Speed Figures.

"Clearly, and most importantly, most of the hullabaloo has been about my perceived criticisms of valued forum members, and not about the substance of my posts."

No one gets the substance of your posts because they can't see past the harsh and innuendo laced verbiage. Try re-reading your posts and look at how you wrote it - because as I said in the beginning, it is not the content but the delivery that causes others to react to YOU and not the subject.

Posted by: Steve T on May 25, 2008 at 01:01 PM

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CaliBob -

I feel exactly the same way. Ever since her first race in this country (I believe it was @ Keeneland, maybe the QEII?) I have been a huge fan. Watching her mature is pretty neat, and she definitely has a trainer to nurture her. Lady of Venice's kick in the race at Lone Star last year was similar with the soft fractions and lightening quick change of pace. Speaking of which, what is the story with Lady of Venice?

Posted by: Sedonia on May 25, 2008 at 01:02 PM

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Best Bet Today:

CD 9th

This turf sprint OC/Alw is chalk full of hard trying geldings and one horse. I personally saw one of these entrants last year at Del Mar. That would be INDIAN ASHTON. He swept into town from Florida for the Wesley Ward and simply put a stamp on himself as a force in this minor division. After losing by a nose to Ballistic Heat in a race he should've won, he went ahead and won two straight against older (including Monterrey Jazz) in the easiest of fashions.

Without a doubt Ward decided to hit the brakes on this well-bred gelding (Tribal Rule out of a Bertrando mare-105k 2yr purchase). Possibly the announcement of a new BC Turf Sprint race helped him decide to focus with all his skill on preparing this horse to peak late in '08.
After starting the year in April at BM, and a tough loss to Bonfante, he shipped to CD for the Aegeon Turf Sprint. He tried to give a shot to a No. Cal. rider, but that have played a part in the terrible break in that race. After breaking desperately last, he shoul've had no shot. But, he battled gamely to challenge down the lane, and predictably ran out of gas.

So, now he places him in an Alw, w/ an excellent turf jock (E. Trujillo) who has just happened to have won with 21 of 64 starters for Ward since the start of '07.

Just like Lattice yesterday, this new 4 year-old has topped his 3 year-old numbers already without winning a race. A perfect sign of a top effort on the way, and possibly at playable odds.

With this deep field I'm hoping to get 3-1 on him, and I will take him all the way.

I'll also play a straight late DD with him and IKIGAI in the last race. The latter was possibly the most sought after Whywhywhy in all the sales last year. He went for 470k at the Barret's 2 yr old sale. Pletcher worked him early this year on the synthetics out west, but never started him. He's fired 2 bullets in 5 works at CD and looks absolutely primed to win first out.

Good Luck.

Posted by: CaliBob on May 25, 2008 at 01:15 PM

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Steve V,

Just handicapping the Hollywood races and got to the 7th race - boy did you guys get lucky getting the race with Dancing in Silks. DIS I think is the best 3 year old colt on the west coast. So if you guys win this, it is really a big deal. Good luck to you guys in the race. I will be using Smart Hit in my unders with Raingear, Earnednevergiven and Star Nicholas. Maybe I am wrong, but I think DIS is a monster in the making.

Posted by: Steve T on May 25, 2008 at 01:23 PM

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Alan, Laura, and all,

Just recieved an email from Lauren Stich. She ask that I let you know she will be at Hollywood Park tomorrow (Memorial Day), and be appearing on TVG... Was unsure of exact time, but she was sure it would be between 3-5 pm ET.

Also those of you attending HLW Memorial Day. Lauren, along with Brad Free, and James Quinn will be conducting a handicapping seminar and, Bet With The Best 2 book signing at the Paddock Tote Board starting @ 12:20 pm PT. Book signing will begin @ 12:50 pm PT.

By all means if you are in attendance tomorrow, stop by an introduce yourself to this incredibly talented lady.

Posted by: johnnyz on May 25, 2008 at 01:23 PM

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Sedonia,

Her first race back after a 5 month vacation was the Jenny Wiley at KEE on 4/12. She ran pretty well on an outside trip, losing by a half-length to Rutherienne.

Posted by: CaliBob on May 25, 2008 at 01:56 PM

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Anyone have any information on Trainer, David Prine. He put over Halation in Belmont's 5th on Sat. Paid $146 for the win, did catch the show price. Can't ignore Samyn-on-the-green! Anyway, just wanted to know if he has come from a top barn or was the understudy to a top trainer. We need to be ready, he might put one over at the Spa.

Posted by: chessplayer on May 25, 2008 at 01:58 PM

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Sedonia, LoV and Gorella are two of my favorites to watch in the last few years. Lady of Venice was 3rd to Rutherienne at Keeneland. I don't remember hearing anything about her injury wise (someone correct me if I'm wrong) so I'm assuming she is going to run in the Just a Game at Belmont, which is now a G1 for 400k.

Posted by: Greg on May 25, 2008 at 02:13 PM

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4th at Belmont 1 1/6 T, Fillies MSW 3 and up.

Kapanga - Hussonet - Wild About Bridget (Wild Again) Dam unplaced in 6 starts, earner of $1,908, 2nd dam earned $55,146 in 35 starts. Family includes Naneral (G-2 & G-3 winner) Burmilla (G-2 winner) and MagicalMysteryCat (G-2 winner). Others include The Green Monkey (we all know his race record), and MaintenanceManDan, winner one time in 35 starts, ages 2 through 5 (sorry Dan).

Jelly Roll - Smart Strike-Red Jelly (Red Ransom) - Dam earned $24,730 in 11 starts. Dam's full brother is Trail City, won the Arlington Classic (G-2) 2nd in Secretariat (G-1), placed in other G-2 & G-3 turf stakes. 2nd dam earned $68,080 in 23 starts.

Great Humor - Distorted Humor - Silk Appeal (Valid Appeal) - Half to Florida stakes horses Concorde's Appeal and Silk Concorde. Dam earned $26,900 in 6 starts. 2nd dam Florida stakes winner, earned $93,004 in 18 starts. Other family members include stakes winners Razor, Silk Broker and Rocky River.

Loquacious Lil - Pulpit - Speaking of Time (Gilded Time) - Dam was G-2 & G-3 placed winner of $394,976. 2nd dam restricted stakes winner of $118,525. Dam's 1/2 brother, Wild and Wise winner of $326,516.

Madam Bling - War Chant - Madam Sandie (Our Native) - half to Gritty Sandie, G-3 winner, G-1 and G-2 placed, earned $502,195. First dam earner of $86,040, 2nd dam unraced. Other family includes Blazing Fury, G-3 winner and G-1 & G-2 placed earner of $513,884.

Value Stream - A.P. Indy - Storm Beauty (Storm Cat) Lots of Phipps Family breeding here. Full to Renaissance Lady 2nd Fashion S.; Debutante S. G-3; KY Cup Juvenile Fillies S. earner of $132,050 in 12 starts. Half to Stormy West, G-2 placed and earner of $178,282 in 12 starts. Dam restricted stakes winner of $178,164 in 15 starts. 2nd dam restricted stakes winner of $41,924. Family includes champions Gold Beauty, Dayjur, Maplejinsky, graded stakes winners (deep breath) Country Hideaway, Boca Grande, Pine Island, Pleasant Home, Tale of Ekati, Sky Beauty, Cat Charmer, Impeachment, David and a few others.

Sonnets Way - Gone West - Snappy Answer (American Standard) Half-brother Dynamic Wayne 3rd in Tampa Bay Derby. Dam restricted stakes winner of $55,177 in 17 starts and half to two other restricted race winners. 2nd dam winner of $61,456 in 11 starts. Other notable family members include G-3 winners Erica's Dream and ADreamIsBorn, and Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner Answer Lively.

Venetian Causeway - Giant's Causeway - Alleged World (Spinning World) - Dam was unraced, 2nd dam is champion Miss Alleged. Despite this, the family hasn't produced more than a few restricted stakes winners.

Queenofalldiamonds - Kingmambo - Escena (Strawberry Road). $2,7000 Keeneland Sept. Sale yearling, 4 year old out of champion Breeder's Cup and multiple G-1 stakes winner of $2,962,639. Dam had one other foal to race, earning $18,600, 2 others unraced. 2nd dam graded stakes placed in Ireland. Very few in this family made it to the races. The ones who have are talented.

So, this field has a combo of hard-knocking blue collars and royaly bred hothouses. It should be a good race, I'll look for Madam Bling, or Sonnets Way for a bit of a price. Both are from hard-knocking families.

Posted by: laura on May 25, 2008 at 02:20 PM

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Steve T,
YEah we got real lucky to draw Dancing in Silks in a Calbred nw1x...Regardless I think we are gonna put in a great effort. That may be the way to go in the exacta.BTW, that horse Boowoogeemalia we were gonna take for 32 out west showed up in NY today -dominating NYbreds for our pal R.Dutrow.(My dad is sick -we shoulda took her- El Corredor-NYB).

I've got a big tip in the 2nd @ Hol today--#2 Smoocher.(Anyone one seen this before, Mike Mitchell gelding an older horse, working out great, and moving him to the turf as well as up in class).

Also like Value Stream @ Bel R4.
Let's make some $$$$$,

Posted by: Steve V. on May 25, 2008 at 02:24 PM

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Stephen Taylor -

As for declaring yesterday's HOL's R7 a no contest due to the tragic breakdown of Waveland Avenue in deep stretch -- I actually meant a non-wagering event where purse money's would still have been distributed if at all possible. As well, I actually backed into a large place wager on Dakota Phone and still feel all wagers simply should have been refunded to all.

- RobertSD

Posted by: RobertSD on May 25, 2008 at 02:26 PM

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I like three races within an hour on Sunday, and will play my own little "pick 3" parlaying the three races:

9th at Monmouth: I've been waiting for Prussian to get a firm turf course since he scratched out of the CD race on Oaks day. He'll get it today, and has a great post for the mile. If he wins, I'll press it all with...

3rd Hol: Jack Flash. He ran a great debut 2nd to Seismometer and was moved up via DQ. The winning time was a track record for 4 1/2 furlongs on Cushion at Hollywood. Seismometer returned to win impressively next out. Jack Flash is second choice on the ML to NorCal invader Backbackbackgone. The hope is that BBBG gets into a duel with Aromatica, and Jack rolls by.

If that race goes official fast enough, I'll parlay it all to Dream Rush in the 9th at Belmont. Her only competition is Baroness Thatcher, who ran a much worse than looked second when the Humana Distaff fell apart on Derby day. BT is a bet against, leaving Dream Rush the most likely winner on the day. I'll be happy with 3/5.

Posted by: Scott on May 25, 2008 at 02:27 PM

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"If history has taught us anything, it's that you can kill anyone... uh, I mean, beat any horse." Looks like some foot problems are haunting Big Brown, possibly making him the Hyman Roth of this TC series. What say you, Rocco? "Difficult... but not impossible."

Hey everyone,
Take it easy. Honestly, I didn't think Tinky said anything overly offensive. Actually, I didn't know that Mott had only 4 previous Derby starters, which I find mildly interesting. I also agree that dosage is, well, not on the top of my list either. Personally, I thought Z Humor was throwout #1, but then again, I didn't like Spanish Chestnut any better. What does it matter anyway? I'm just a handicapper and am not connected with the horse. They're not the first stable to take their shot at the Derby. When do we ever have 20 really good 3YOs? There are a certain number of pretenders in the Derby EVERY year. Again, that's just MY handicapping opinion. I'm sure it doesn't matter to them. Maybe they felt like they had a legitimate chance. We're free to challenge or support that opinion at the windows.

Posted by: C on May 25, 2008 at 02:27 PM

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Tinky,

I completely echo Steve T's post which I think was excellent. That said, I'd like to provide my comments on this matter. First of all, there is no question in my mind that you are very smart and knowledgeable! Second, I do appreciate your posts and will note that you and I have posted very similar comments regarding the undetectable peformance enhancing drugs that are being used by the cheaters in our game. Believe me, I'm very happy that someone else in a position to know (I assume you are) is willing to call it out. Too many keep quiet.

But...(you knew that was coming :)...I think your post calling out the Zayat operation was foolish... I can understand your point of view and why you've derived your opinion but you have to recognize that you are limited with insufficient information to truly make a conclusion worthy of publicly criticizing in the way that you did.

First of all, regarding Z Humor's pedigree, the FACT of the matter is that NOBODY knows the exact genectic traits that he has inherited from his ancestors! Even taking a limited 5 generation look reveals innumerable trait possibilities. Now, obviously we can play the percentages as most do but that doesn't change the fact that sometimes trial and error is necessary for a racehorse to know exactly who they are (strengths, weaknesses, capabilities)... The FACT of the matter is that even trainers (who watch their horses train every morning) don't know until they experiment...

Aside from the fact that Zayat Stable sits atop the owners's standings (which should suggest that maybe they know what they are doing), I know Sobhy Sonbol (he's my next door neighbor), I talked to him at Churchill Downs shortly before the running of the Derby and he knew that Z Humor was up against it. He's very smart and knowledgeable and can read PPs, watch videos, analyze performance just like any of us. But sometimes in a race like the KY Derby, with your horse having earned his way via the rules, you definitely take a shot. The reality is you just never know...

I certainly got the impression that Sobhy liked Z Fortune's chances a lot better (like most of us, right?) and I can't help but think of an example from 1996 when there was paired entries for owners. Remember a paired entry of Ecton Park and Grindstone?? Ecton Park was like Z Fortune and Grindstone was like Z Humor. I firmly believe that if Grindstone had finished up the track for whatever reason, there would have been plenty of people that would have made similar comments as yours...such as, they were idiots for running that colt in this spot, they've taken a Grade 3 horse and likely ruined him....

And I'm not even getting into the reality that when an owner has a chance to fulfill a dream (remember that owning horses is mostly entertainment and thrill), they take a chance... This is a variable that your critical opinion simply omits...

Anyway, just my opinions, please keep posting as I suspect that you and I will agree on far more than we disagree on...

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on May 25, 2008 at 02:42 PM

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Just looking at the Metropolitan Mile. Wow! We've got Justin's Premium Wine, Justin and Riley's Z Humor, another Tony Dutrow horse uncoupled with Premium Wine, Lord Snowdon. Zito thinks we'll see the freaky and brilliant Commentator, Steve Klein thinks Divine Park will run first or second. All we'd need is for Steve V's Bustin Stones to be in here and it would really be crazy.

We know Justin loves Premium Wine; and Tinky has told us repeatedly that Z Humor is a miler. Of course, Commentator is also by the much discussed sire, Distorted Humor. I think I'm getting a headache. Anyone here got this one figured out?

Posted by: Annie on May 25, 2008 at 03:01 PM

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