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FormBlog | May 22, 2008
Young sires, Belmont betting?
Let's take a look at a couple of young sires:
Dan,
Going thru the pars for Preakness day you uncovered my first "crush" horse in Burning Roma. Did he ever make it to stud service? And can you post his PP's for a stroll down memory lane?
cayman01
Burning Roma's first crop will hit the track this year. He was retired to Hidden Point Farm in Florida following his racing career, and he currently stands there for $7,500.
Here is Burning Roma's web page from the Hidden Point site:
http://stallions.hiddenpointfarm.com/images/stallions.hiddenpointfarm.com/default1.aspx?contentName=Horse&horseId=403&thumbsize=_small
Here are his lifetime past performances:
Download BurningRoma.pdf
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DAN COULD YOU PLEASE POST (IRE) CENTURY CITYS P.P.S FOR ME I SURE WOULD APPRECIATE IT. GO BIG BROWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SINCERLY,$BILL
Century City, a son of Danzig out of Canadian Horse of the Year Alywow, will have his second crop start as two-year-olds of 2008. He stands for $2,500 at Wintergreen Stallion Station in Kentucky.
Here is Century City's page from the Wintergreen web site:
http://wintergreenstallionstation.com/stallions.asp?p=conformation&id=1
Here are his lifetime past performances:
Download CenturyCity.pdf
Dan or any of you great memory handicappers help me remember who finished second to Swept Overboard in the 2002 Met Mile? I was reminiscing about that score with the impending memorial day weekend and i always feared the day I couldn't remember a horse and that day has arrived...id be much obliged to anyone who knows...
jlove
Here is the chart of the 2002 Met Mile:
Download MetMile2002.pdf
Swept Overboard was sold to Japanese interests at the conclusion of his racing career.
***
So now, back to that matter of Big Brown, and this quest. There are sixteen days before the Belmont Stakes. Anything can happen during this time. The field has yet to take shape. But with all that said, I am having a hard time placing my level of certainty for this race. What are your (and other’s) thoughts?
Van Savant
I don't think you can ever be certain as it pertains to the Belmont Stakes. You could argue that the distance beat Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, etc. more than their opposition. Either a Triple Crown candidate handles the marathon or he doesn't. Add in that said horse has to maintain peak form for five weeks (not counting the Derby preps), and the task becomes much more daunting. Also, all the other jockeys in the race will be riding Big Brown as much as their own mounts. There won't be any gimmees. Big Brown will likely have to enounter waves of challengers, and still get the distance. On paper, Big Brown should be 2-5. The Belmont has a way of making fools out of form analysts, however.
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Dan:
Re: Tony Kelso's comments, are the Japanese racing fans (other than those who make the trip) going to have access to the tote for the Belmont?
Do Youbet, TVG, Xpress or any of the others take international (other than Canadian) customers?
BTW, when TVG takes special Japanese races is it a separate US pool or is it commingled with the Japan pool?
If Japan bets into our pool, it would make things very interesting.
On another topic, I understand from the NYT racing blog that the connections of CD have not firmly decided on Take. They would be insane to put Take on the horse when the likes of Prado is available.
James Mc.
I don't believe that Japanese fans will have access to the tote, and that the major wagering sites do not allow international customers. The Japanese races on TVG are bet into a separate U. S. pool, and you'll often find underlays in these separate pools on overmatched American horses when they ship over there.
The Japanese fans will bet though if they are on track. I'm sure you guys remember the 2006 Arc de Triomphe. Tons of Japanese fans descended on Longchamp, and hammered Deep Impact to 9-4 favoritism. He finished third under Take.
Here's an article from our friends at The Racing Post concerning the wagering phenomenon that day:
'One of the most extraordinary days of gambles in racing history'
Published: 02/10/2006 (Sport) By Lee Mottershead
"THE craziest betting race I've known." That was how Mike Dillon, the longserving public face of Ladbrokes, yesterday described the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe as a E1.6 million gamble on Japanese superstar Deep Impact came unstuck.
As a result of thousands of devoted Japanese punters steaming into their hero - even when the horse was trading on the pari-mutuel at 1-10 - Rail Link, an 8-1 winner on British industry prices, was returned on the PMU at 23.6-1.
Unfortunately for bookmakers, many of whom, including Ladbrokes, still won on the Arc, British and Irish punters had the best of both worlds. While on-course Japanese punters piled into Deep Impact regardless of his odds, their British counterparts were backing the Asian horse at 9-4, while taking advantage of the PMU's inflated prices on all the other runners.
"It was the craziest betting race I've known in 35 years in the business," said Dillon, who described Deep Impact as "the heaviest-backed horse in the history of the Arc".
"I've never known anything like it," he added. "I saw Japanese punters waiting for PMU windows to open so that they could back a horse at 1-10 who was available at 5-2 in Britain.
"When I rang the office after the first Arc show came in and told them that Deep Impact was 1-10, Hurricane Run was 12-1 and Shirocco 14-1, I think they thought I'd had a few bottles of vin rouge!"
Figures returned by PMU officials confirmed the magnitude of the Deep Impact gamble. Of the Û2.948 million bet into the Arc's win pool, Û1.6m was poured on the horse.
As a result of that frenzy of Deep Impact support, on-course Arc-day turnover was up from Û3.1m in 2005 to Û4.9m this year.
Other British bookmakers concurred with Dillon's assessment.
Totesport's Damien Walker reckoned victory for the Japanese champion would have cost the industry £5m, while Coral's Simon Clare emphasised that the juxtaposition of the two betting systems proved costly to bookmakers, even though many layers sought to take some measure of control by themselves betting into PMU pools.
"This was one of the most extraordinary days of race gambles in racing history," said Clare.
"While the defeat of Deep Impact saved us a massive payout, we still lost on the race, as smaller punters placed bets on all his rivals at artificially inflated prices on the PMU, and Rail Link at 24-1 was the most popular."
William Hill's spokesman David Hood also highlighted the costly effect of the forceful instructions given to punters by Angus Loughran during the BBC's coverage.
Hood said: "Angus Loughran on the BBC did British bookmakers no favours by telling people that they had to back horses like Rail Link on the PMU.
"People have sat at home following his advice and, as a result, an extra £1 million has been taken off the bookmakers."
It's unclear whether Take will ride Casino Drive in the Belmont as he is scheduled to ride in a Grade 1 race the following day in Japan.
***
Anybody hear anything on a pick 6- to start in mid -June possibly involving Bel., Del., Pha., & Mth racetracks??
I heard something on the Steve Byk radio show on Sirius yest.-discussing it.
Steve V
I believe it's called the 60 Minute Pick Six, and will include two races from Belmont, two from Monmouth, one from Delaware, and one from Philadelphia Park. I think it's scheduled to start next week, and Andy Serling and I will do some video to promote it on drf.com.
***
Back with some weekend opinions in tomorrow's blog.
Take care,
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on May 22, 2008 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
Dan, Have you heard anything regarding Storm Flag Flying's first 2yo Colors Flying? I hear he is in trainning at the Spa. Could you also post the lifetime PP's for Storm Flag Flying. She was one heck of a 2yo herself. Thanks
Posted by: Matt on May 22, 2008 at 05:30 PM
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With regard to accessing the US pools from overseas, I can freely and legally do it from the UK - and if the Japanese cut the same deal yes it could be interesting.
If that happened and Take was booked to ride I could Big Brown be a very backable price.
Posted by: Paul D on May 22, 2008 at 05:45 PM
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Breaking News: ;)
Maybe they won't have to rush Big Brown off to the breeding shed the day after the Belmont after all...money should be flowing from this latest deal:
"Nike Signs Big Brown to $90 Million Horseshoe Contract"
Here is the link. LOL. This is pretty good stuff:
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/nike_signs_big_brown_to_90_million
BTW, speaking of good young sires from Florida. The top sire in Florida is the sire of Lt. Ron. Does anyone know that much about Ron's sire?
Posted by: vicstu on May 22, 2008 at 05:46 PM
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Dan, nothing but the jockey beat Smarty Jones in 2004. If Elliott had been more patient, he'd have won that race. They crawled home the final quarter and Birdstone still needed the whole stretch to get to Smarty. To a lesser extent you could say Kent D didn't wait long enough on Real Quiet in 1998. The Belmont is the ultimate jockey's race, especially when you have a horse like Big Brown or Smarty Jones, who have natural speed and it's just a question of when to make "the move".
Posted by: Dave on May 22, 2008 at 06:01 PM
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Steve V,
You are more than welcome to win as many as you want at the Spa, as long as we are not in the race. That would be a different story LOL, just kidding. Best of luck this summer.
John r,
I don't really know what is going on with that situation other than the comments I read on the Bloodhorse article I saw. But I do know that we had no intension on putting Riley into the Preakness solely to hurt BB's chances of winning.
Mathieu,
It'd probably cost quite a bit of money eh?
Posted by: Riley on May 22, 2008 at 06:05 PM
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One important thing that will be the mystery for next few days is who will ride Casino Drive in the Belmont Stakes?
I'd rule Yutake Take out simply because they would've called upon him in the Peter Pan. Secondly, they knew they had a good horse so they might wanted a jockey expert at American tracks. Kent became the main guy because he rode in Japan for some time and infact is the only foreign jockey who has won the Japanese classic (maybe Dan can correct me if I'm wrong) so he was a natural choice. Now that Kent is out of the picture, so who would they go for? My best guess in Edgar Prado. He's not my favorite jockey but I think he has the right style and temperament for this kind of race, distance and horse. I know he is being criticized for his ride on Riley Tucker but that's a separate discussion.
Mr. Kent got second life in NY circuit after getting shunned by the owners and trainers for his "quiting" or "not riding the horse to the wire" in California back in the late 90s. He's an excellent rider but, in my personal opinion, not in the same league as Bailey, McCarron, Eddie D. and others. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he makes a premature move costing him the race or getting over-confident (which I hope he does).
But I have to make a choice of siding with which history I want to choose: A Triple Crown or an unprecedented third Belmont winner from Better Than Honor, my choice is Better Than Honor.
It will be a better honor from one mare to another ill-fated filly, Eight Belles.
Posted by: Arazi on May 22, 2008 at 06:06 PM
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So Dan....
Are you saying that DRF/FORMBLOG should send me to Japan to bet our "pooled" thousands of dollars on Big Brown?? Are we going to get much higher odds there vs BEL??
BTW, I do love sushi - I humbly accept the offer but please make sure Uncle Steve doesn't short me and buy me only a "one-way ticket"...
Posted by: Alan on May 22, 2008 at 06:14 PM
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Riley -
I would never doubt any of the connections of RT. You are sporting folk - it almost seemed as Dutrow took exception becuase RT challenged BB. If you weren't going to challenge then why run right? you or the connnections don't even need to bother with an answer to that.
Just seemed like a weird statement from Dutrow...RT obviously got his attention...and I doubt prado would want to jeopardize future mounts by riding just to make another lose. Anyway, if BB is as good as his connections think he is, and probably is, no competition should be able to get him off his game. And i have written about how professional he is so why bother in terms of Dutrow even mentioning it. Unless he wants to create a rivalry with prado for the Belmont and CD...my DC conspiracy theory running wild!
vicstu just found the answer for delaying retirements to the breeding shed....very funny stuff and only - what if....
john r
Posted by: john r on May 22, 2008 at 06:39 PM
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On Big Brown & Nike....You've got to be kidding me. Is this for real? When did they fly the horse to Portland? Please tell me this is a joke..
Sedonia
Posted by: Sedonia on May 22, 2008 at 06:57 PM
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Riley,
Thank God your old man doesn't have too many claimers!
Steve T.,
We got in that nw1x Cal Bred alw Sun. w/ Smart Hit- Hoping for big things again...
Posted by: Steve V. on May 22, 2008 at 07:02 PM
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New Young Sires --
I completely expect Candy Ride to be a influential sire overall, and his 2 yr-olds to win early.
The first Candy Ride I've seen on the track is running in the last today at HOL.
Keep you updated.
Posted by: Calibob on May 22, 2008 at 07:07 PM
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Take Nobiz off the DL-- he's awaiting his million $ deal. I'm staring to think if a G1 winner is off for more than 6mo-odds are he won't be back. There are exceptions of course, but this seems to be the way things are.....sigh.....
Posted by: Stephanie on May 22, 2008 at 08:35 PM
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alan---i'm with it---i live in cockeysville---we could meet at san sushi go over bets and maybe some saki bombs---that sounds just like some great use of form blog finances---send a blogger to an away game
Posted by: matt smith on May 22, 2008 at 08:42 PM
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John r,
The instructions to prado was to sit in the second tier not go straight to the lead and than take back and deul with bb, We wanted to get a placing, He totally killed the horse when he tried to kill bb for no reason it wasn't even needed at that time, but prado won't be jeopardized for that. He is still a great rider he just made an error.
Posted by: Justin Zayat on May 22, 2008 at 09:16 PM
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Hi Everyone
...just catching up on a weeks worth of formblog, and Jeezz, You guys and girls are great.
Laura, Johnny Z, vicstu, Calvin, C, Lawduck07 (nice to see you, congrats on the bar!)...love all the pedigree angles and info/links you have put out there.
.............
Welcome to some new bloggers, Annie, Amanda...go Girls!...sorry if I miss some of the guys...just so much going on.
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Jason G...good luck with your filly on Sun...Go Harmony Found, I hope you find her niche.
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Steve V...nice comments from a owner's perspective.
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Riley, love to see you and Tucker...best to you and all your connections.
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Owensized...I'll keep an eye on your Storm Princess!
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Alan, I Really like your Maid-en America selections...win or lose it's a nice add to Thorougbredink.
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Belmont Stakes, (I'm not drinking the Kool-aid) because I have liked Big Brown long before he come on the radar.
I would love to see a Triple Crown winner, and I think he is the Horse that will make it happen.. Go Big Brown!
But Arazi..I love the Better Than Honour 3X winners angle for The Belmont.
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vicstu...Thanks for the Big Brown Nike link ,HA!
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So much great stuff, sorry if I don't mention all, I could go on and on and on.....
...a quick personal note to friends that know: Mom 's surgery went really well, no complications and she will still have her beautiful smile!
............
Dan...Thanks for the Genuine Risk stories, and the links. Great stuff!
..and a special Thanks for your continued support of what is the BEST Horseracing/Handicapping Formblog around!
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on May 22, 2008 at 09:53 PM
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Hello again...just catching up and wanted to thank Van Savant for the Congaree reminder...together we are correct...Swept Overboard was the winner and Congaree finished second and I can now stop trying to remember...it was a nice exacta that memorial day in 2002 at Belmont...this year all eyes will be on Commentator but i have to say (and Justin chime in) after watching the Bustin Stones race so intently (what up Steve V!) i am eager to bet back on Premium Wine...The other Dutrow had this Zayat charge flying at the end...the extra distance will be helpful and while I think Commentator may qualify as a freak...his gate temperament makes me nervous and he tends not to go back to back with his spectacular performances...
Premium wine on Monday to go please :) Thanks again Van Savant!
Posted by: jlove on May 22, 2008 at 10:22 PM
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Bustin Stones got lucky trust me premium wine wasn't getting a hold of the track that day, when he took off is when he finally got a hold of it or he would have had bustin stones by 5. But thats racing he will show you he is a champ in met mile!!
Posted by: Justin Zayat on May 22, 2008 at 10:33 PM
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Steve V,
We deffinetaly have our fare share of them, thats for sure. I actually think the claiming game is pretty neat. I like seeing when a good horseman claims a horse and improves them into a productive allowance horse or even a nice stakes horse. I think its pretty interesting. I'll deffinetly see you in Saratoga if you make the trip because I am there 7 days a week so it'll be good to meet
Posted by: Riley on May 22, 2008 at 10:41 PM
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SR Vegas -
Thanks for the good wishes about Storm Princess. She fired a bullet yesterday at Calder! First start expected by end of June.
I have one entry alive in the Belmont Showdown (bodgit). I hope a bunch of formbloggers are alive with me. Good luck everyone.
Speaking of Captain Bodgit (my fav horse of all-time), I was reading the Crist post about Triple Crown Beyers, and it reminded me how great the Captain was. He just ran into an incredible 3-year old in Silver Charm.
Posted by: owenized on May 22, 2008 at 11:09 PM
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Justin -
The AP story I looked at didn't include your father's quote that was provided in bloodhorse. BH gave a bit more perspective.
I understand the instructions may not have included going to the front early....if prado went early then that is between the coonections and him.
But why don't connections complain about a double entry - when a rabbit may be entereed only to make mischief. My point is that Dutrow shouldn't have brought up RT....even made comment....if he has the greatest horse he should overcome tough spots and maybe RT provided one.
BB overcame it so move on to the TC. Maybe he is concerned that he won't overcome the next tough spot and he wants to intimidate?
john r
Posted by: john r on May 22, 2008 at 11:25 PM
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Sedonia,
The article about Big Brown from the Onion about Nike was a satire piece. Anything from the Onion is kind of like the National Lampoon of the Internet. The take real life events and personalities and parady them.
SR Vegas,
Glad all went well with your mom and her operation. Always nice to read your posts; you bring a positive attitude and a love for the game that is like a breath of fresh air here at the Blog (it can get a little heated here, at times). Now that I am off for the summer from law school, I plan on going over to Steve T and co.'s Thoroughbred Ink soon. Have you been in on the live chat? I heard it was really hopping there a couple of weeks ago.
Justin and john r,
Justin, I was wondering myself at the time what Prado was doing with RT. It reminded my of Prado in 2007 at the Preakness on CP West where he tried and pen Hard Spun in along the rail as that one was rating nicely behind Xchanger and FFC. Pino was supposed to tip HS out going into the second turn, which was to be the cue for the horse to give Pino his run past the leaders.
Instead of slowing down on HS like Kent D did, before he moved outside and eventually made his move on the far turn, Pino simply moved HS off of the rail from fear of being pinned in. HS blasted off at the 6f marker, and blew past the leaders with Pino trying to rein him in. The bottom line is that Pino moved HS too soon. Had Pino waited until the turn to move HS, HS had a shot of winning.
Needless to say, thanks to Prado, HS was moved too soon and I think it is uncanny how Prado appeared to be trying the same move on RT to BB.
I can understand why your father or the connections might be exasterbated with Prado. That race riding seems to have taken something out of RT, hence he finished way up the track. That said, Prado is very good. I would pick Prado to ride CD if I were his connections, as Prado is all business and will get all he can get out of CD.
But john r, there appears to be friction between Prado and BB's connections. Prado is upset that he was taken off of Big Brown (as Dutrow wanted Prado on board and Prado was exercising BB earlier this year). Yet, IEAH wanted Kent D over Prado. Dutrow went to bat, but ultimately Prado was taken off BB. One could argue there is friction between these parties.
Maybe that is why the back and forth, and maybe Dutrow was merely thinking out load. But I agree it should be between the parties. However, Prado seeemed to ue the colt for some Race Riding.
Posted by: vicstu on May 23, 2008 at 03:26 AM
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I have lifted a few comments, written by Glenye Cain Oxford
which may have appeared in the DRF (not sure), concerning Big Brown. I thought it might be interesting for those, such as myself, that might not have known about the scientific and numbers aspect of horse racing; with the full understanding that this is probably common knowledge and rudimentary, for most the formbloggers here.
Big Brown was bred by Gary Knapp PhD.
Knapp is a statistician, economist, a former professor of marketing, and a businessman.
Knapp brought a 6 year old Lear Fan mare, Miasma in 1998 for $350,000, who was carrying the Nureyev filly, Mien.
Knapp thought that Mien would be a good producer. It wasn't just a gut feeling; it was bio-mechanics. Bio-mechanics analysis, uses measurements of a horses physical components-such as body length, heart-girth size, hip size, and stride-as well as projected growth patterns, to predict the horse's probable performance aptitude and ability, based on its physical similarities to a database of horses. Knapp had so much faith in the technique, he acquired equity ownership in one of the leading biomechanics companies, Equix, in 2003.
Pedigree is also important. Knapp ran a hypothetical mating of Mien, with Clairborne Farm's sire Boundary, and liked what he saw.
When Mien's water broke Big Brown was upside down. They walked her up and down the barn isle, returned her to her stall and let her roll a few times. Eventually, Big Brown came out right side up.
Susan Smallwood, V.P. of Equix. said about Big Brown.
"He had a very high bio-mechanical score...We expected him to have very good stride balance, and power, and he had other power components which led us to expect he would have good tactical speed. We definitely had him to be able to run a distance easily. Power is a reflection of the hind quarter components: the ilium, tibia, femur, the hindquarters, gas-kin muscling,
and the hock to cannon ratio.
Reaching a high performance level, is a balance of a number of bio-mechanical properties. It's not just one
key element".
Big Brown was sold to a pin-hooker for $60,000. Knapp tried to get him back but was outbid by Paul Pompa Jr., who bought Big Brown for $190,000.
After Big Brown broke his maiden at first asking at Saratoga, in September of 2007, on the turf, IEAH Stables purchased a majority stake in Big Brown.
Mien, now 9, has a Belong to me filly this year, and will be bred back to Stormy Atlantic.
Posted by: chicago gerry on May 23, 2008 at 03:30 AM
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Re: Prado race riding in 2007 Preakness at same spot, as well.
Justin, john r and riley,
Prado is nothing if not agressive and opportunistic.
Here is a video review of last year's Preakness. Note that the premature move on Hard Spun into the teeth of that suicidal pace was dictated by Prado on CP West who was moving up to HS's outside and would have pinned HS in had Pino chose not to move. This is the same thing Prado did this year on RT.
By targeting the "big speed" in each race, Prado is hoping to in some way compromise the speed horse's trip, thus helping his mount in the process. IMHO.
I would agree that it is probably not a good move to endear oneself around the track, and it looks like it compromised RT in the process.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqYkAkpzO1Q
Those fractions last year were killer. Its a wonder HS hung on for 3rd. FFC and Xchanger finished in back of the pack.
Posted by: vicstu on May 23, 2008 at 03:47 AM
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Mr. Sobhy Sonbol ,
Riley Tucker (the horse) has the conformation and pedigree of a decent miler. From my personal interactions with him, he's a friendly, intelligent, willing horse. I respectfully request that you give him a chance to regain his confidence against an allowance or grade 3 caliber. He'll be happy to win races if you place him into the proper company.
I'm close friends with many of the horses in the Mott barn, I know them on a personal level, their likes, dislikes, whether they are happy, bored, want a vacation, eager to run, or just hate racing. I know their pedigrees, and preferred running style. I know who will take a peppermint from my lips and who will bite my face off in their eagerness.
Who else has that confidence with a race horse? The grooms call me that "loco punta" I just smile when they get bit...or kicked. I get upset when I watch them jerk a chain when all it would take is a soft, calming word..a horse rears up from feeling good or excitement, everyone gets excited, instead of calming the horse.
Mr. Sonbol, you handle one of the most progressive stables in the racing world. I request that you find a place in your organization for my knowledge and experience.I know you will benefit with the guidance of someone who knows pedigrees, confirmation, and pays attention to a horses attitude, Someone who is not affiliated with any breeders, pinhookers or trainers. My husband has worked as an exercise rider for the Mott barn; However that would never sway my conviction, if I believed the horse would benefit with another trainer. I have studied horses,conformation and pedigrees since the 70's. I've posted a few pedigree analysis on the DRF Blue Boxer's board. So, what do you think?
Are those high-priced consultants better than me? Do they take into account the conformation and personality of the horse? Do all the vet tests available, but if the horse doesn't have the heart, interest or attitude, are you still going to bid on that inter bred pedigree because it's fashionable because your consultant said it's a good deal? Go for it, the onlookers will laugh, a/k/a the poor Green Monkey. I offer honesty and truth. Money is nice, but I've been rich and poor, and in the long run, it comes down to belief of one's abilities to spot a good horse. What can compare to that? I'd guess Cot Cambell would have me beat, but not many others.
Posted by: laura on May 23, 2008 at 04:25 AM
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off to Arlington today! and here are some picks
1.) 9-Cooler by the Lake-DISCLAIMER: I'M A SMALL PARTNER IN THIS HORSE SO I'M BIASED! Did run a decent race last out, and hoping the Pioneering (outstanding poly sire) lineage puts him over the top at a price (12/1 ML) There's a Pletcher/Douglass horse in there that will take the money and when I looked at the race, that one didn't impress me all that much-Gonna use 10-Band Camp and 5-Aggressive Joe in the gimmix
2nd- Couldn't decide between 4-Tee Paint and 7-Tak Man so went with 4-9/10 chalk was beaten last but was coming off a long layoff, and if I get anywhere close to the 6/1 ML there's value here
3rd-2-Rush to Greatness is out of a superior sire by superior damnsire and with the exception of a race in the mud at Oaklawn has run very consitently-7-Gallantin Guy will enjoy the Poly and could put a bit of value into the gimmix
4th-5-Isn't He is bred for Poly, drops, and gets Rene Douglass!
5th-5-Ella M has run a couple of nice races over the poly Was a beaten fav last but that came off an 11 month layoff and plenty of value if we get anywhere close to the 6/1 ML. 11-Cartsallinwhite may like the poly and adds value to the gimmix
6th-4-Carolsbeentalkin moves from Cond to Open claimers but is by Mutkadim who is an outstanding Poly sire, and has a win and 2 3rds in 5 starts at AP. Used the 1 and 5 in the gimmix
7th-7-Trippit has only run one bad race at Arlington (when he flipped a palate) and his last 2 have been respectable. AGAIN, I'M A SMALL PARTNER IN TRIPPIT SO I'M BIASED! The Catalano/Douglass horse is only 1 for 20 but more importantly has been out of the money in 4 poly starts at Arlington/Keeneland) so 3-OK Joe is a Strong second choice-drops plus 3rd after layoff, and 4-Comic King had a couple of nice races over the track last season and may put some value into the gimmix
Posted by: Stephen Taylor on May 23, 2008 at 08:01 AM
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Love the Race of the Day feature and really appreciate that it is on the free portion of the site. Keep up the good work with these races. I love the commentary you two provide. And, I am really hoping Mike can hit one of his selections soon so he can afford some sun screen.
Ed
Posted by: Ed on May 23, 2008 at 10:02 AM
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From the handicapping perspective, Riley Tucker didn't have much of a chance to win the Preakness. I understand the emotions and sympathy shown towards the owner of Riley Tucker but the honest truth remains.
Knowing you're 30-1 on the morning line and dealing with eleven others and some of whom are more seasoned and accompished than yours, you wish that your horse would raise his game to the next level. Given the circumstances, Prado did the right thing, in my opinion. Either you play by the rules of Big Brown or you make Big Brown play by your rules. There was no way BB could've been beaten on his own turf and observing that, Prado instictively, might have opted to force something out of the ordinary. Someone had to do it. I think the real cause was Tres Borrachos almost hitting the ground at the start and never got to run his race which most of the folks expected. When the race isn't run the way it should've, someone has to try something different. Prado did it and he tried to give BB something no other horse was willing to.
Really smart thinking...it would've make him a genius if things would've turned out in a different way.
Posted by: Arazi on May 23, 2008 at 10:53 AM
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Missed the point in my last post, I'd love to see Prado on Casino Drive because of his mental toughness and temperament not to mention the bravado he is able to show by reacting to different situations as they demand.
Posted by: Arazi on May 23, 2008 at 10:59 AM
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I was going to post this in the next few days anyway, but the timing seems perfect since Riley mentioned how interesting the 'game' of identifying claimers with allowance or stakes potential can be.
I’d like to get some suggestions from everyone on a study I’ll be starting on in a few weeks. Basically I’ll be looking for factors that influence the likelihood of a claiming horse eventually competing successfully in allowance or stakes races. If you have any suggestions for factors to look at in the study, please let me know!
Some of the factors I’m already planning to study include:
1. Age – I assume a younger horse has a better chance of substantial improvement than an older horse. I’d like to measure just how much better.
2. Experience – I assume the fewer previous races a horse has had, the better chance that it has some hidden abilities. I might also try to factor in its experience on a variety of surfaces and tracks.
3. Sex – The sex of a horse could affect the likelihood of it being put into claimers despite having the potential for improvement.
4. Trainer – I’d actually prefer to look at owner/trainer combinations, except that I think most wouldn’t have large enough sample sizes to learn much of value. I’d guess that some trainers aren’t as good at recognizing a horse’s future potential than others, and that some may enter their horses more aggressively at the lower claiming levels in order to try to win races.
5. Breeding – I’d guess that the higher the sire’s stud fee, the more of a dud the owner and trainer have to consider the horse before they’ll enter them in mid and low level claiming races.
Anybody have any other suggestions?
This is is cross-posted at my blog (thoroughmetrics.blogspot.com), so feel free to post suggestions either here or over there...I'll be checking both.
Posted by: Alex on May 23, 2008 at 11:20 AM
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Steve T - I've seen you reference your ongoing research into sires whose offspring are well suited to synthetic surfaces. I know that you're most focused on the handicapping applications of this, but am wondering if you'd like to share your data or collaborate in some continued analysis of the data. My interest is mostly in application for breeders and owners. I'm not sure how to reach you for an off-line conversation, but if you're interested you can email me through my blog...I don't want to plaster the forum with links to it, so you should be able to find it in a post I did a few minutes ago.
Posted by: Alex on May 23, 2008 at 11:24 AM
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Come on guys, you know that races don't always unfold the way you plan. The criticism of Prado's ride on Riley Tucker is a little too much. Rewatch the race.
Riley Tucker happened to break on top ON HIS OWN, not because Prado was placing him there. This is a good example of a jockey being a passenger instead of a driver. Watch Prado's hands and wrists. He is more than happy to let Gayego pass him once that one gets into stride. In the meantime, what was Prado supposed to do? His options were (a) wrangle the horse back to simply satisfy the pre-race instructions OR (b) make the best of the horse's early speed and save ground behind Gayego. He (wisely) went with (b).
Considering how the race shaped up, his move was not premature either. He was simply pitted against a superior animal and wasn't good enough. When Big Brown sees daylight, he's gone... do you want to pray he gets tired and try to run him down, OR do you want to take your chances and get the first jump and make HIM chase YOU home? Again, Prado chose the latter, and who can blame him? If Riley Tucker was in the same league, he could've won with that ride. But he's not, so he didn't. It's that simple.
Prado didn't make a mistake. He reacted to what happened when the gates opened, as all good jockeys do.
Posted by: C on May 23, 2008 at 11:52 AM
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WOW, Justin:
I don't even know if I should respond?-- Let's keep it classy--
Premium wine by 5 & Bustin Stones got lucky?? Umm...Where do I start?
First off, which time did we get lucky-- Down in md., when we were against the track bias on the lead, or in the G1 Carter being hounded by a "now" horse who was posting between 108-109 beyers, then having enough in the tank to hold off any late runners(PW & co.)
Secondly, it is awful big stretch to say you're are going to fly by a horse(BS)-who has never been headed in his PERFECT 6 start career. These undefeated types(who are G1 winners) are special types, who have an awful lot of fight and determination in them. So, don't think just b/c a horses is closing ground on them- I wouldn't assume they are def. going by. Bustin' has a nose for the wire. And, we have never needed to make any racing excuses for him (although, he's had them).
After all he has been through, (double knee surgery, ankle chips, and several other minor things that all horses must deal with), I must take a stand against anyone who is going to try to knock him.
But, no disrespect to you, and you're stable- You have added a lot of flavor to the game(and it is very tough game) at the ownership level with "level' of the game that you're at. Best of luck, & ps. if you want to knock one of the Valente horses- pick a cheap claimer or something- Then I won't get so offensive ;).
Riley,
Looking forward to meeting you as well this summer-- like I said I'm only 15 mins. from the track.
All,
Have a safe & happy holiday weekend of racing and other stuff. Speaking of cheap claimers, if you're looking to make a bet 2nite @ Hol.- Stress Free in the 1st Race.
Posted by: Steve V. on May 23, 2008 at 11:56 AM
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The other thing that needs to be considered (related to Arazi's post) is that Big Brown has a running style and temperament that makes it very difficult to force him into trouble. The only way a runner like him (Barbaro was another good example) gets into trouble is if they get boxed or pinned with nowhere to go. Otherwise, outside stalker-types who are maneuverable and can rate kindly rarely get into trouble or taken off their game.
Posted by: C on May 23, 2008 at 11:59 AM
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vicstu - you made a lot of sense about the move on BB.
and Arazi - Prado on CD would be awesome - particualrly if Prado came back to beat BB. I just don't see that happening.
I know it is early - but what do poeple think the odds will be post time for BB and CD?
Dan - do you have any thoughts about the odds of these two and the possibility that Japanese money could inflate BB?
john r
Posted by: john r on May 23, 2008 at 12:14 PM
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C,
Did you see the way he unnecessarily hustled to flank Gayego coming out of the first turn? I wouldn't call that a smart move
Posted by: Riley on May 23, 2008 at 12:19 PM
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Arazi,
Obviously we knew we were in tough, but we thought we could maybe get a piece of it, like second, third or fourth if the horse was given the best chance possible to do so.
Posted by: Riley on May 23, 2008 at 12:23 PM
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Being from a claiming outfit:
The number 1 thing we probably use is "sheet #'s", maybe the horse has "hidden upside"-(Age is probably a key point in there as well.)
Then, next we look at the trainer: maybe he/she is not running them in the right spots. Maybe, the horse needs to go longer, needs the turf, etc.
Lastly, some outfits may claim a horse that is more suitable for them than its current connections.(i.e.- a NY Bred running in Cal. who is taking on "open co." out there when we can take them back "home" @ the Nyra tracks and be ultra- competitive against restricted co.)
Posted by: Steve V. on May 23, 2008 at 12:29 PM
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Riley,
No. I only saw a horse who wanted to run.
When Big Brown ran up on Riley Tucker's left side on the turn, I think the HORSE'S competitive juices flowed and let out a little burst to keep up. Even if I'm wrong and Prado "hustled" him into that position, I still don't think it hurt his chances... why go outside Big Brown when Big Brown can go outside of you?
Whatever the reason, that brief burst was not the reason Riley Tucker got beat.
Posted by: C on May 23, 2008 at 12:51 PM
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John R, I see BB at 1/5 with Casino Drive at 5 or 6/1. I would not be at all surprised if the BB/CD exacta had a probable payoff of $4. This analysis does NOT include a possible influx of big $$ from a Japanese contingent such as occurred in the Arc a few years ago....if the Japanese throw big $$ on CD, he might get down to 3/1, with BB going up to 2/5 or 1/2.
Posted by: Dale on May 23, 2008 at 12:56 PM
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Riley,
I love the sportsmanship and it always has the highest place in my eyes regardless of winning or losing. I'm simply proud of all the great owners and trainers who took on BB in Preakness knowing it will be tough to beat him. That's the spirit of the game and I really admire Zayats and all others for this reason alone. Wining or loosing doesn't really matter in some cases but the will to compete is what I love and you guys definitely have that spirit. That's what really counts otherwise there wouldn't be trainers labeled as "The Giant Killer" or owners known for their sportsmanship.
Posted by: Arazi on May 23, 2008 at 01:01 PM
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Steve V,
I've been really looking forward to your response! Way to keep it classy! I wonder if Justin knew that he was "Bustin" your Stones???...probably not, but as you know, we owners are entitled to optimistic points of view of our horses...LOL...
Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on May 23, 2008 at 01:05 PM
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"Mr. Sonbol, you handle one of the most progressive stables in the racing world."
Hey Laura –
If by "progressive", you mean regularly pressuring trainers to run horses over their heads, or (at times) in otherwise unsuitable races (e.g. Z Humor at 10 furlongs, etc.), then you are correct!
Also, with all due respect, I'd recommend that you contact any potential employers privately, rather than in a public forum such as this.
Posted by: Tinky on May 23, 2008 at 01:10 PM
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Tinky,
I think your assessment of the management of the Zayat horses is out of touch. That same argument can be made day in and day out in this business for any outfit. It is clear that they employ seasoned, veteran horsemen who keep them informed and that the decisions on where to run are made after careful consideration. Of course, it is up the horses to deliver, and it is only a matter of time before you see them winning more than their fair share of the top tier races.
Posted by: Tim on May 23, 2008 at 02:19 PM
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Tinky,
really uncalled for
Posted by: Riley on May 23, 2008 at 02:28 PM
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Steve,
Look at the ride premium wine got in the general george he was flying and than some horse killed him, he would have been there at the finish you can even talk to the jock about that race because she knows we were the best horse in that race.
Posted by: Justin Zayat on May 23, 2008 at 03:47 PM
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Wow,
I am getting a little nervous about some of the "tone" on the bblog. Although, I must say, I am eagerly waiting on every and all rebuttals.
Posted by: MudhoundMojo on May 23, 2008 at 04:08 PM
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Since Big Brown won his maiden race I have followed him.
I called the stable many times in the past and chatted with various people.
Back in October we went to Monmouth Park for the Breeders Cup. A member of our group brought a tape of Big Brown's maiden race. We watched it and the member immediately said this is a super horse and will win the Kentucky Derby.
Of course we all laughed at him. After the Florida Derby, I called the stable to ask about purchasing one of BB's bridle. They said $1K. I said no way, we paid just $150. for Ghostzapper. The man said it will be worth alot more after BB wins the Triple Crown.
Well, I took a chance and in March, I entered the Belmont Stakes preferred reserve seats lottery for 5 tickets.
We got the best seats as our name was pulled in the first draw. We got 5 consecutive seats in the only apron being constructed right in front of the finish line and next to the winners circle.
Unfortunately, my son's graduation turns out to be the same day and I have to sell the greatest seats for this event and will have to settle for watching the replay on TV.
If anyone is interested in these reserved seats, I just put them up on naxcom.com under auction 896049432 or you can just use the site search key words Big Brown.
Joy to all who will witness this magnificent horse triumph in the most elusive prize in thoroughbred racing, The Triple Crown.
Posted by: Tony on May 23, 2008 at 04:59 PM
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Tinky,
Do me a favor and look at the standings before you try to say anything negative about our stable. We have been nothing but good for the game, we brought in millions and millions of dollars. Broke track records, set a saratoga record for the most WINS and we have the most stake wins, so i don't know what you mean by pressuring trainers if you look at Z Humors pedigree he is bred for the distance being out of an A.P. Indy mare . I think everyone in this group will agree with that they have all be supporting our stable and having our backs.
Posted by: Justin Zayat on May 23, 2008 at 05:26 PM
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Steve ,
But im sure we can have a hell of a race with Bustin Stones and Premium wine i will want a rematch soon
Posted by: Justin Zayat on May 23, 2008 at 05:30 PM
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I'm with the Zayat camp, they've done nothing but good for the game...having seen posts over the last few months...in many respects they are like everyone else who is trying to be successful...and they seem pretty open to discussion which is actually pretty refreshing...back to my premium wine endorsement...i admit to seeing both the general george and thought napravnik gave an awful ride...and he was the BACK end (sorry justin) of my bustin stones exacta and i nearly hit paydirt...if only linda rice's horse wasn't on that day...and if only i had a dollar for everytime i said something like that...with all that disclosure...i thought premium wine was eating up the race track and at a mile steve v. it would have been pretty darn close...but the race was 7f and the results stand...and monday is a new day...and i think there is some real great value with premium wine...but like i said earlier somebody better hook commentator or he had better not get out of the gate as he has in the past or your likely running for the place spot...that horse is freaky...for anyone who can recall my trainer crush on greg diprima at belmont he appears to have a good one running back tomorrow named mister nobody in the fourth...all you need to do is watch the replay of his last and check the teletimer...this one can fly...i like him with fit faze to close for second...riley any insight on hot table in the sixth? - he could bookend my pick 3 with coop to the hoop and iron gate in the middle legs...have a great memorial day all...jlove
Posted by: jlove on May 23, 2008 at 05:46 PM
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Hey steve,
Just to tell you that myself and my dad are big fans of bustin stones, how couldn't you be, he is perfect that doesn't mean in spirit of competition we should not try to beat him in a race, we like him so much that my dad for the first time sent some of our good mares to be bred to city zip. looking forward to seeing you in saratoga :) i hope i didn't offend you. I was just trying to illustrate a point that our colt is good as well.
Posted by: Justin Zayat on May 23, 2008 at 06:17 PM
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Dan, I noticed Aquarian was on the DL, but I thought I read that he ended up being euthanized that day or soon after.
Posted by: Alex P on May 23, 2008 at 06:31 PM
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Tinky - Laura provides a huge addition to this blog.... many revere her thoughts on pedigree and her horsemanship...I'm sure she will take the route you suggested as well...but maybe that gets lost in the shuffle of a ton of email these connections get. We all know they look at this blog so maybe it is an ingenious approach.
Justin - I think Steve v's dad's stable has done remarkable things with the resources they've spent. I'm a fan of Zayat and what you've done but what a coulda...shoulda.....done...dosn't earn money or pay off tickets. That’s why the races are run.
Happy Mday....I’m off the BVI!
john r
Posted by: john r on May 23, 2008 at 07:24 PM
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Hey Alan look who just won the feature at CD....Mambo in Seattle...by 2...i couldnt catch second and only bet him because of your touting...hope you had him...jlove
Posted by: jlove on May 23, 2008 at 07:28 PM
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JLove,
thank you for taking our back and personally we don't like hot table, just saving you some money, but you never know he can win.
Posted by: Justin Zayat on May 23, 2008 at 07:52 PM
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RE: Spotting horses
First of all, the Zayats and Sobhy do not need me or anyone else to defend them as their tremendous recent success speaks volumes. To me it appears to be far more than simply a hot streak and must include much very good and sound decision making.
I would like to speak to this issue of fans taking shots at owners/trainers' decisions on where to spot their horses. The simple reality is that most fans and horseplayers simply do not possess enough knowledge of the specific situations to evaluate these decisions in a fair way. It's just a little too easy to question a move AFTER the race when the result was unfavorable, it seems so obvious doesn't it??
For perspective, let's go with this example: at Saratoga, competition is fierce with the best trainers, owners, jockeys, horses, etc. and yet you regularly find full fields of 12 competing where by definition there can only be one winner and two others hitting the board, meaning a whole bunch of horses are off the board, out of the money and these scenarios are populated by a who's who of the best in the business. Does this mean that they don't know how to spot their horses realistically?? Should there only be 3 or 4 horse fields because those are the only place positions with the rest of the owners/trainers making foolish decisions?? And, what do you make of all of the complete longshot bombs that come in at Saratoga?? Were those owners foolish with their spots..uh..wait..it's after the fact and they won, so we won't criticize them...
I do realize that there would be no such thing as sports talk radio if not for the phenomenon of fans thinking they are smarter and know better than players, coaches, owners and in our case, trainers, owners, jockeys... The problem is that this is an elite forum of the best and brightest (like Saratoga, if you will...) and this is not a place to post ignorant and stupid comments...
Use caution with the tongue (keyboard in this case) in assuming yourself to know better than those in the best position to know...As Proverbs 17:28 says: Even fools are thought to be wise when they keep silent... And if you can't do it, then you need to spot yourself more realistically in another forum like Facebook or something....
Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on May 23, 2008 at 08:01 PM
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Justin,
Way to "scoreboard" Tinky!!!
Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on May 23, 2008 at 08:04 PM
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Hey, Hey, Whoa, Whoa, hold on here...
I agree with Mudhoundmojo...
Where's all the love I was feeling earlier today.
Yes, we can all agree to disagree, but come on now,
Can't you all play nice?
(Steve V, Justin, Riley, I know you guys are just having some fun with each other, right?)
Tinky,
With all due respect, Mr Sohby Sonbol has publicly asked for input from the posters here on this blog for insight and comments regarding his horses.(he referred to it as "thinking outside the box")
What he does/ or does not do with that input is his business.
Laura would not be the first to offer an analysis, or an opinion, as to how a horse could be managed.
...and she is what she says, really very talented in regards to pedigrees and horses. She has worked with others in this regard.
So, not that I need to cover your back Laura, you do well enough on your own...
I just thought I could give a bit of insight to Tinky.
No disrespect intended here.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on May 23, 2008 at 08:12 PM
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John r,
Very jealous. If you get to the soggy dollar bar, tip one for me.
BigEasyBigChok
Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on May 23, 2008 at 08:23 PM
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Blue Horseshoe,
Add Abraham Lincoln's quote to yours- " Better to remain silent and have people think you do not know what you are talking about than open your mouth and confirm it for them".
BigEasyBigChok
Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on May 23, 2008 at 08:27 PM
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I see that we have a rather sensitive group here. So, let's explore a bit deeper...
First, Tim –
"I think your assessment of the management of the Zayat horses is out of touch. That same argument can be made day in and day out in this business for any outfit."
Well, you are correct in the sense that many owners choose to place their horses out of their depth, and/or to point horses to the KY Derby which are unsuited to 10 furlongs. I think it is unfortunate no matter who does it, and I have nothing against the Zayat stable in particular.
Justin –
Did I say that your stable was "bad for the game"? No, I didn't. I simply pointed out that your stable has shown a tendency to place some of your betters runners above their heads, and to suffer from the same Derby fever which afflicts many other owners and trainers.
Now, with regards to Z Humor, I'm glad that you have a passion for the game, and, given its complexity, hope that you will treat it as an ongoing learning experience. I say that because if you think that Z Humor was (or is) likely to be well-suited by 10f. because he is out of an A.P. Indy Mare, then your understanding of pedigrees is far too simplistic.
He's by Distorted Humor, which, as you probably know, is almost exclusively a sire of sprinters and milers. Furthermore, his second dam, Chip, was a fast Sonny Hine-trained filly by Norquester, which was himself a fast miler type. So really, his pedigree is that of a miler, and his two efforts at 9f. gave no indication that he would benefit from longer distances.
I would add that if you are really determined to learn the nuances of the game, you are more likely to do so by listening to those offering constructive criticism, rather than the ones who invariably pat you on the back and tell you how great you and your stable are.
Finally, I rooted for (and bet on) a number of your winners at Saratoga last year, and compliment you on your successes. I also think that, after a period of indecision and some turmoil, you have chosen wisely by giving a good percentage of your runners to Bill Mott.
Riley –
Next time, try to address the substance of the post in question, otherwise you're just wasting bandwith.
Posted by: Tinky on May 23, 2008 at 08:38 PM
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What is wrong with Zayat taking their chances? I happen to think they are part of the "good" in the game. These guys actually RUN their horses. No showboating, they send them out early and often. Sure, sometimes they might be out of place, but that is horse racing. Look at the Derby and tell me half of the field belonged in there. Ditto the Preakness. If I owned a horse of stakes caliber, I would have taken a shot too. Let's look back at a great trainer: D Wayne Lukas. A lot of his marquee victories were with horses who looked hopelessly outclasses (Cash Run, Cat Thief, Charismatic, Editor's Note, Spain...I can keep going). The point here is that you have to be in it to win it. I respect and envy the Zayats for taking a shot. And, with that said...I'm all over Baroness Thatcher, again.
Posted by: Sedonia on May 23, 2008 at 08:41 PM
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BigEasyBigChok - DONE - I look forward to catching up on the 5th and hopefully CD and posssibly Prado get some attention to make the belmont juicy....go BB!
john r
Posted by: john r on May 23, 2008 at 11:09 PM
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I'm intrigued by OCHRE tomorrow in the Sheepshead Bay. Enought to make a small wager at a great price. She went to the front in her last race at a mile and a half and never looked back. With no other early speed signed on here she should get the same trip. The only question is her Beyer's are a bit light for this bunch. However, I'm going with the theory that she was geared down at the end of her last race and, being lightly raced, she's still on the improvement.She should provide a thrill for backers at about 10-1 or so.
Maurakalana , Hostess and J'Ray will all try to run her down in the lane.Look for a blanket finish.
Hanshin-AP 9th- LOVANGO freaked in his only poly start at ...... AP. Should get an absolute dream trip stalking from the outside against need-the-lead types Spotsgone, Stonehouse, and Throng. Leading rider RR Douglas gets the call.Should be winner winner chicken dinner.
Will look to take a shot ata price in the Arlingtom Classic. SEBASTION COUNTY goes to turf for the first time, but should handle it. In a race full of stalkers he looks to be the most forwardly placed of them so he should get first run when Meal Penalty starts backing up in the lane. If he handles the turf he has a great shot at M/L 10-1.
Posted by: cayman01 on May 24, 2008 at 12:28 AM
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Dear All,
Thank you for all the support to our stable and our operation. Also we welcome all kinds of criticism and comments. We are very proud of what we have achieved in a very short time. I think we have come a long way in a short time. We have done mistakes that we learned from and have learned a lot from the veterans of our industry. I would also like to think that we have added to the industry and have injected new ideas and successful approaches to the way things are done.
As to the criticism we have received from Tinky about placing horses where that belongs i will just let the numbers address that. In 2006 we were leading owners in Del Mar and we ended up somewhere in the top 15 leading money earners in the country that year, Last year we won 18 races in Saratoga (12 more than the 2nd leading owner and 3 more than todd pletcher) we were 2nd leading money earners in the country and we were leading owners by stakes winners and graded stakes winners.
This year so far we have been leading owner in the country and have been holding our position in a solid manner.
I am very proud of what we have achieved and i am very humbled by it but i do not see how placing our horses where they do not belong can achieve all of the above.
Tinky, also your comments about Justin's pedigree insight is out of place because even though Distorted Humor sires great milers and sprinter but some of his best runners were classic winners Funny Cide who won the Derby and Preakness, Flower Alley who won the travers and Any Given Saturday who is bred just like Z Humor won the Haskell. Distorted Humors are very versatile and they have proven that they can stay the 10f distance in G1 company (twice).
You also have to look at the stakes calender and what is available and who is running where and for what and how you can affect the value of your horse. All these things are taken on consideration when we run horses and every race is picked out carefully and yes i am proud to say that we sometimes run 20-1 shots and 30-1 shots but i have proven successful doing that to because sometimes we see something that others dont. Sometimes we are right and sometimes we are wrong but we learn from our mistakes and go forward. Sherine won the G2 Comley a month ago whilst being the longest shot on the board.
Tinky, I would love to know your involvement in our sport maybe that will explain the nature of your comments.
Mr. D W Lukas told me when we first started is if people in this game are your friends be worried if people are ripping you apart and hate you be happy cause that means you are doing well.
I am happy to see our success and also the support of a lot of people on the blog.
On the matter of Prado's ride in the Preakness. First of all Edgar is a great rider and has ridden great races for us. We were hoping to be sitting 3rd or 4th in the preakness just tracking the leaders. Riley Tucker belonged in this race as much as the other 11 contenders out side of BB. Big Brown is a tremendous race horse and i did not think that Riley Tucker is mature enough to beat him right now. However we think that he can beat the 11 remaining horses in the race. RT was traveling well until BB bumped him in the first turn and almost knocked him off his saddle. I would have wished if he would have let big brown through and tracked him. It was obvious that after this bump Edgar got emotionally involved in the race i think a knee jerk reaction ended up making our horse the sacrificial lamb. However, this matter is over and I still think Edgar is a great Jockey.
Bustin Stones is a hell of a race horse, no doubt about that. So is Premium Wine. In the 2 times they ran against each other we got the troubled part of the race. This is racing though and we are happy to have a healthy and sound horse that will be able to show his talent even more. At the same token Bustin Stones showed a lot of guts sustaining early pressure in those two races.
Laura, thank you for your comments and please do not hesitate to approach us with any ideas.
Posted by: Sobhy Sonbol on May 24, 2008 at 03:47 AM
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Steve V. & Dan,
Re: the "60 min. P6"..
Sal Sinatra visited 'At the Races' Thursday to clarify the new bet. It is now scheduled to commence June 14 with the 6 races coming from BEL, MTH, PHA and DEL.
While it will feature 2 races from 2 tracks and 1 from the other two, the tracks hosting pairs of races will rotate and NOT be from the same 2 tracks every week. The bet will always start with the Belmont 6th however.
The minimum is $1; the takeout is going to be a paltry 15%; there will be early seeding of the wager with a $100,000 guarantee. DRF is apparently going to provide similar PP's for the "60-6" as we've come to receive for the Magna 5.
I'll be providing lots of coverage for the '60-6' on "At the Races" too, and look forward to Dan & Andy's analysis of what should be an instant hit with serious multi-race players.
And... on the topic of cool wagers, Brian Pochman shed light May 23 on 'ATR' that Lone Star has started a P5 on its' last 5 races of the day which features just a 12% takeout. I know many are shut out of LSP right now, and the bet has small pools so far, but this wager looks like a winner as well given that carryovers would essentially negate the takeout.
Posted by: SLB on May 24, 2008 at 07:03 AM
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Sobhy –
As you must surely understand by now, Thoroughbred racing and breeding largely revolve around around percentages, and those who make a serious attempt to become successful in either realm learn to interpret and play the percentages in the most refined, and therefore favorable possible manner.
With respect to interpreting a given pedigree, or the aptitude of the offspring of a given sire, one looks at the evidence in order to make a sound judgment. Both you and Justin are, in the case of Distorted Humor, either misunderstanding the process, or making a simple mistake.
Distorted Humor is primarily – and unequivocally – a sprinter/miler influence. That does not mean that he isn't capable of siring the odd runner that will be suited to 10 furlongs (or beyond), but the number of his offspring which fall into that category is so statistically small as to be rendered insignificant. Both of you repeat names like Funny Cide and Flower Alley, but they are high-class anomalies.
Break his stud record to date down any way you like, and you can only arrive at one conclusion: the vast majority of his offspring are best suited to races between six and nine furlongs, and only a very small percentage ever succeed beyond the latter distance. No breeder in his or her right mind would breed to him and expect to get a 10 furlong runner.
Now, when you bought Z Humor as yearling, I don't think that it would have been unreasonable for your camp to have speculated that there was a chance – albeit a remote one – that given the presence of A.P. Indy in the bottom-line, he might have proven to be one of the exceptions.
But given the way in which he ran in his races leading up to the Derby, coupled with his rather hot temperament (which is typical of DH's offspring), it was clear that 10 furlongs was very likely to be beyond his best distance.
It's sweetly ironic that you would quote Wayne Lukas, as he was the poster child for the type of mismanagement to which I have been referring.
In fact, he took it to levels which were previously unheard of. He understood (brilliantly) that most wealthy owners are mainly concerned with having their large egos fed. So he spent huge sums on yearlings (which, of course, gives many wealthy owners a serious buzz), and consistently, throughout his career, has run horses over their heads and in otherwise inappropriate races precisely because such placement feeds the egos of his owners. They love "Saturday horses", even if they are 20-1.
Unfortunately, developing horses slowly, carefully, and wisely, is mostly incompatible with the ego-driven desires of the typical wealthy owner. So for every horse which Lukas won a big race with, there were scores of others which were ground up in the process, and never had a chance to develop to their full potential.
Finally, if you and Justin want to use a Lukas' cliché to make yourselves feel good when someone offers criticism of your operation, that's your choice. But I'll give you the same advise that I previously gave to Justin: if you really want to be the best that you can be in this complex business, then you'd be well-advised to learn from serious criticism, rather than basking in the glow of the adulation your receive from the many sycophants your stable attracts.
Posted by: Tinky on May 24, 2008 at 09:31 AM
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Tinky-
I know that this subject has been hounded time and time again since your post, but I'm inclined to put my two cents in. On Distorted Humor's offspring, you mentioned that Any Given Saturday was a high class miler. I'm inclined to disagree. While he did, in fact, not win past 1 1/8 miles, does that necessarily mean that he wouldn't get the distance? No, as there were legit excuses for both races in which he ran farther. In the Derby, he was 2nd for a good bit before faltering and subsequently coming out of the race with a bruised foot. In the BC Classic, the track was a mess that day, and many who would have had a say in the results didn't run a lick. I'm inclined to think that he was one of these.
And Flower Alley, while he may have won the Jim Dandy and Lanes End at 9 furlongs, the Travers is run at 1 1/4 miles, and he was second in the BC Classic, at 1 1/4 miles. That is what I would consider a route horse.
Funny Cide is one I'm not going into great detail about, as everyone already knows who he is, but he won the Derby, and Preakness, and was third in the Belmont.
This does not include horses that haven't won a graded stakes at 9 furlongs or below, as countless have won at that distance. And I know I'm missing a few. But to say he's a sprint/miler sire is way off base.
Posted by: Chase on May 24, 2008 at 01:13 PM
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Chase –
"But to say he's a sprint/miler sire is way off base."
I'm afraid that you don't know what you are talking about, nor, apparently have you read my posts on the topic.
Real Quiet sired Midnight Lute; do you think he's a speed influence? Northern Afleet sired Afleet Alex; do you think he's a stamina influence? Etc.
All sires get the odd horse(s) which perform at distances beyond those at which their typical offspring perform best. Distorted Humor is no different.
Out of every 100 Distorted Humor runners, how many do you suppose are suited to 10 furlongs and beyond? One? Two? Five? Even if you were to choose a number in the high single digits, a number which would almost certainly be too high, that would mean that over 90% of his runners are SPRINTERS AND MILERS.
Is that too complicated for you?
Posted by: Tinky on May 24, 2008 at 06:08 PM
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Tinky,
What can I say, that my fellow bloggers have not said already....
Posted by: larryk on May 24, 2008 at 07:31 PM
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Mabe Big Brown was ZAPPED!
Someone in the stands was using an Electric shock device or some kind of Ultrasonic sound machine that was directed at the horse to distract or bother him.
Could this be so?
Posted by: charles baxter on June 09, 2008 at 05:51 PM
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PLEASE SEND ME INFO ON A SITE THAT WOULD SHOW ME THE TOP TURF,DIRT,SLOPPY TRACK SIRES AS OF 2008 THANKS
Posted by: CARL BARNHILL on August 08, 2008 at 02:08 PM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 