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FormBlog | August 21, 2008

Alabama, Genuine Risk, questions

Usually, I try hard not to root, yell, scream, or commentate at the television during the running of a race.  It's not that I find that behavior offensive.  On the contrary, it often adds to the experience.  I just find that I'm offensive when I do it, and I don't want to annoy anyone else.  As I watched the Alabama at the palatial offices of the Daily Racing Form in New York City, I couldn't help myself.  The big filly, Music Note, was bearing down on the little filly, Proud Spell, and the two hooked 'em up at the eighth pole. 

"This is what it's all about, boys," I found myself yelling out loud.

The last six seconds of the Alabama is all the game needs to market itself.  It's competition at its finest.  There's no bluster from whining connections about who's better than who without proving it on the track.  There's no complaining about weight or surface or tons of other reasons why a draw won't appear before the public.  There are no tracks creating races so the "stars" of the game can have it easy. 
It's just casco y casco combat between two of the best fillies in the division, and they're giving their all in one of the most prestigious races in the country.  It's the type of race that will have fans asking "what if."

What if Music Note had a legitimate pace to run at?

What if the trips were reversed?

What if Proud Spell is too courageous to ever be passed in the stretch?

Now, racing fans can't wait for the rubber match between the two best three-year-old fillies in the country.  Whether it happens or not is up to the suits that run this game, and the people that control the destinies of their horses. 

Marketing horse racing is about promoting those six seconds of sport as well as the fact that we, the racing fans and horseplayers, can profit from our correct opinions.

***

Genuine Risk passed away recently.  Out of respect for the great mare, here's a repost of her "Champions of the Past" retrospective that appeared in the May 21 edition of this blog:

***

Let's take a trip back in time to 1980:

*The Pittsburgh Steelers win their fourth Super Bowl, defeating the Los Angeles Rams by a score of 31-19.

*The United States Hockey Team pulls off a gigantic upset by defeating the Soviet Union in the semifinals of the Winter Olympics in Lake Placid, NY.

*The United States boycotts the Summer Olympics in Moscow.

*Mount St. Helens erupts in the state of Washington.

*The Philadelphia Phillies win their first World Series championship by beating the Kansas City Royals.

*The superteam of Bob Backlund and Pedro Morales win the WWF Tag Team Championship from the Wild Samoans at Shea Stadium in New York.  Also on the card, Andre the Giant defeated Hulk Hogan, and Bruno Sammartino whipped arch-rival Larry Zbyszko in a brutal steel cage match.

*Ronald Reagan defeats incumbent Jimmy Carter to become the President of the United States.

In the world of racing, Spectacular Bid earned Horse of the Year honors with a flawless season, but it was a filly that captured the hearts of America with her win in the Kentucky Derby. 

Let's take a closer look at Genuine Risk's championship season through the words of the legendary Joe Hirsch in his "1980 Racing in Review" column in the 1981 American Racing Manual:

"While Spectacular Bid dominated the racing scene in 1980 with his perfect season, there were many other equine stars of considerable magnitude..."

"...Another was Genuine Risk, owned by Mrs. Bert Firestone.  Genuine Risk became the second filly to win the Kentucky Derby and the first to accomplish that feat since Regret in 1915.  She was also the only filly to run in all of the Triple Crown events, finishing second in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.  These and other feats earned her the title of champion 3-year-old filly..."

"...The 3-year-old division, as is often the case, provided much of the drama, with Genuine Risk the star of the first half of the season and Temperence Hiill dominating the second half..."

"...In mid-March, Genuine Risk began a quiet approach to the classics.  She was a top 2-year-old filly, undefeated in four starts, but her people and trainer Leroy Jolley made little of her nomination to the Kentucky Derby, as well as to the Oaks.  She won nicely at Gulfstream Park on March 19, going seven furlongs in 1:22 3/5 against useful allowance fillies, then was shipped to New York.
Once again, in overnight competition against fillies, Genuine Risk stood out.  She won easily at Aqueduct on April 5, going a mile in 1:38 3/5 and Jolley announced she might start in the Wood Memorial.  It was to be an interesting Wood, complete to Florida Derby winner Plugged Nickle; Colonel Moran, a winner of three stakes, Degenerate Jon, a winner of two stakes; and an assortment of other candidates with credentials...or pretensions...to the classics."

"In that crowd and on that day, Genuine Risk was 8-1 under Jacinto Vasquez.  Plugged Nickle, the favorite, led from start to finish under Buck Thornburg and won by a length and a half, while drifting out badly.  In his drifting, he crossed the path of Genuine Risk, who launched a move on the outside, circling for home.  She had to check for an instant in midstretch.  The stewards denied the claim of Vasquez, but some who saw the race speculated she might have been best.  Jolley expressed uncertainty about Derby plans. 
Rockhill Native regained his momentum with a front-running tally in Keeneland's Blue Grass Stakes on April 24, a victory that earned him the role of favorite at 2-1 in the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs on May 3.  Neither he nor Plugged Nickle, the second choice at 13-5 in a field of 13, was equal to the occasion.  Rockhill Native, restrained on the lead by John Oldham, wound up fifth, beaten a nose for fourth money.  Plugged Nickle, in tight quarters on the first turn, finished seventh.  Instead it was the filly who electrified the crowd of 131.859.
Breaking from Post 10, she came away nicely, though well back of the leaders, and saved ground near the inner rail.  Coming to the half-mile pole, she was eased back slightly and taken to the outside for racing room.  She accelerated past horses on the turn, took command entering the stretch while in the middle of the track.  She increased her lead to two lengths at the furlong pole.
Rockhill Native and Plugged Nickle, second and third at this point, began to retire, while the California contingent of Rumbo, Jaklin Klugman and Super Moment came on.  Rumbo, who moved from last place, closed fastest of all to be second, missing the filly by a length and beating Jaklin Klugman a length.  Super Moment finished fourth, another four lengths back."

Here is the video of the 1980 Kentucky Derby (courtesy of youtube):

http://youtube.com/watch?v=WpUhy9iyzqo

"Stunned for a moment, the crowd realized it was witnessing history in the making and then roared its approval of the filly who beat the colts.  There were cheers for the Bert Firestones, who bought her for $32,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky sale, and for Bert's son, Matthew Firestone, who recommended her purchase.  There were cheers for Jolley, scoring his second success in the Run for the Roses, and there were cheers, too, for Vasquez, who rode a confident, heady race.
Genuine Risk, a daughter of Exclusive Native out of Virtuous by Gallant Man, raced the mile and a quarter in 2:02 to win the Derby prize of $250,550 from a gross of $339,300.
The 105th Preakness at Pimlico on May 17 was even more dramatic.  Genuine Risk was favored at 2-1 in a field of eight, while Townsend B. Martin's Colonel Moran, fresh from victory in the Withers Mile at Aqueduct, was second choice at 11-5.  Codex was third choice after being flown in from Los Angeles, and Jaklin Klugman was fourth choice.
Pat Valenzuela rode Codex to win the Santa Anita Derby and Eddie Delahoussaye rode the Arts and Letters colt when he won the Hollywood Derby.  For the Preakness, John Nerud, manager of  the Tartan Stable racing and breeding interests, chose Angel Cordero Jr."

"Cordero had Codex away alertly and stalked the pacesetters, Knight Landing and Colonel Moran, around the clubhouse turn and down the backstretch.  At the half-mile pole, Codex took off, had the lead in an instant.  Genuine Risk began moving almost as soon as Codex and was in high gear around the turn, racing in the middle of the track. 
As Codex passed the point of the turn, entering the stretch, Cordero turned in the saddle and spotted Genuine Risk.  He then guided Codex out to a point just inside the filly and carried her even wider than she would have gone on her own momentum, while swinging his whip vigorously on the right side.  There was light brushing, the filly's head seemed to nod sharply as though struck, and she lost her momentum for an instant.  Gamely she recovered, pursued Codex to the wire, but the battle was lost by a margin of four and a three-quarter lengths.  Codex, who ran a big race, missed the Pimlico record for a mile and three-sixteenths by only a fifth of a second with his 1:54 1/5.  Colonel Moran was third, three and a quarter lengths behind Genuine Risk.
Incredibly, the Pimlico stewards failed to post the "inquiry" sign, though many in the record crowd of 83,455, and millions of television viewers, were aware there had been an incident.  Vasquez claimed foul, however, and the stewards deliberated at length before the Preakness result was declared official. 
Firestone, several days later, appealed the case to the Maryland Racing Commission while thousands of fans bombarded the Pimlico stewards with telegrams and phone calls, deploring Cordero's roughhouse tactics and the failure of the stewards to disqualify Codex.  There was some sentiment that Codex was obviously best and that it is unfair to penalize the horse for the actions of his rider."

Here is the video of the 1980 Preakness Stakes (courtesy of youtube):

http://youtube.com/watch?v=K5FX8lRb-XY&feature=related

Chairman Robert Banning of the Maryland Commission set a hearing at Pimlico for June 2.  Only four of the five-member commission sat in, commissioner Robert Furtick having disqualified himself after newspaper accounts in the wake of the Preakness suggested he had pre-judged the case in favor of disqualifying Codex.  Three days of testimony involved many witnesses, including trainer Wayne Lukas (Codex) and trainer Leroy Jolley (Genuine Risk).  Both men drilled their horses at Belmont Park in the early morning, then raced for a plane to take them to Baltimore for the hearing.
The final vote was 3-1 to uphold the Pimlico stewards.  If Furtick's apparent position is included, the vote was 3-2. 
A field of 10 was entered for the 112th running of the $293,700 Belmont Stakes on June 7.  Codex, the Preakness winner, was the 8-5 favorite.  Rumbo (by Ruffinal), who had been flown in from the West Coast, was the second choice at 19-10, under Bill Shoemaker.  Rumbo, second in the Santa Anita Derby, the Hollywood Derby, and the Kentucky Derby, won the Golden State Breeders Stakes at Hollywood Park on May 24, beating The Carpenter by five lengths.  This solid score, plus Shoemaker's charisma, combined to attract backing.  Genuine Risk, the heroine of the Kentucky Derby, was a mild third choice at 5-1."

"Two of the Belmont starters were overlooked.  Rockhill Native, champion 2-year-old of 1979 and winner of Keeneland's Blue Grass Stakes, went off at 13-1.  And Temperence Hill, winner of the Arkansas Derby and runner-up in the more recent Withers Mile at Aqueduct, was 53-1.
Ogden Phipps' Comptroller, winner of the Peter Pan Stakes, set the pace in the Belmont, going the first half-mile in :50 1/5.  Rockhill Native was a close second, with Pikotazo, the Mexican Triple Crown winner, close by.  Codex and Genuine Risk were in contending positions off the pace, while Temperence Hill, plodding through a deep and tiring muddy track, was still far back. 
After a mile in 1:39 3/5, Rockhill Native took command.  Genuine Risk was coming on boldly now and she was in front at the furlong pole, Rockhill Native was inside her on the rail and Temperence Hill thundering on the outside.  The three horses were almost abreast at this point but Genuine Risk and Rockhill Native were flattening out.  Apparently oblivious to the mire that was tugging against every giant stride, Temperence Hill stormed to the front near the sixteenth pole and went on to win by two lengths.  Genuine Risk was second, a length and a half ahead of Rockhill Native.  Comptroller was fourth, and Rumbo was fifth.
This was a big race for Temperence Hill, who raced the mile and a half in a respectable 2:29 4/5 on a track that was off from the norm by a second or two.  It was also an outstanding performance by jockey Eddie Maple, who handled the Stop the Music colt with great skill."

Here is the video of the 1980 Belmont Stakes (courtesy of youtube):

http://youtube.com/watch?v=gJWqyuj1-9M&feature=related


"There was honor as well for Genuine Risk, competing against colts for the third time in five weeks, and for the gallant Rockhill Native, rebounding from the cuts and bruises he sustained in the Kentucky Derby.  Codex, who had been sore in his training during Belmont Week, was through on the far turn and came back a trifle the worse for wear.  Neither he nor Rockhill Native ever started again.  Codex was subsequently syndicated for $6,200,000 and retired to stud..."

"...Genuine Risk, who freshened after the Belmont, didn't resume competition until Belmont's Maskette Mile on September 10.  This was one of the most brilliant races of the entire season and the winner, by a nose, after an exciting stretch run, was Mr. and Mrs. Corbin Robertson's Bold 'n Determined, a Bold and Brave filly.  Originally purchased at the Keeneland fall sales for $12,000, she was pin-hooked at the Hollywood sale of 2-year-olds for $70,000..."

"...Following her narrow defeat in the Maskette, Genuine Risk ran in the nine-furlong Ruffian Handicap at Belmont on September 27.  Favored at 1-2 in a field of six, she was always prominent under Jacinto Vasquez, drove to the lead at the furlong pole, and stood a long drive gamely to prevail by a nose over a determined Misty Gallore, who was carrying 124 pounds to Genuine Risk's 118 pounds.  It's In the Air finished third.
Genuine Risk was to run in the Beldame but Jolley announced on the morning of the race that she was seriously injured and her career was at an end.  Subsequent X-rays revealed that prints of an old injury had been misread by veterinarians and that the physical setback which prevented her from running in the Beldame was not of a major nature..."

"Competition in the division was brilliant all year and Eclipse Award voters were faced with a difficult task at season's end.  Genuine Risk had a record of four wins, three seconds and a third in eight starts with earnings of $503,742 plus a matchless campaign in the classics.  Bold 'n Determined won nine of 12 starts, with one second and earnings of $643,303.  Love Sign won eight of 11 starts, with one second and one third, and had earnings of $362,508.  The quality was very deep here..."

Genuine Risk did return to the races in 1981, and she won her seasonal debut at Aqueduct on April 11 going seven furlongs in 1:22 4/5 against allowance rivals.  She won by nine and a half lengths that day at 1-2 odds.  She then tried turf for the first time in her career, and finished third in an allowance race at Belmont on May 25, 1981 going 1 1/16 miles.  In her final start, she won an allowance race at Saratoga by eight and a quarter lengths, going seven furlongs in 1:21 3/5. 

Genuine Risk retired with a career record of 15 starts, 10 wins, three seconds, and two thirds, and earnings of $646,587.  She was inducted into the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame in 1986.  Here is her page from the Museum's web site:

http://www.racingmuseum.org/hall/horse.asp?ID=81

Genuine Risk had many problems as a broodmare.  She was barren from 1983-1985, wasn't covered in 1986, was barren in 1987 and 1988, and slipped foals from 1989-1992.  Her first foal, a Rahy colt named Genuine Reward, was born in 1993.  He was unraced, but stands at stud in Wyoming.  Genuine Risk was barren the following two years, but then foaled Count Our Blessing, a Chief Honcho gelding, in 1996. Count Our Blessing was unraced.  She dropped a dead foal in 1997, and was barren in 2000 before being pensioned.

Dan,
Would you post her lifetime PP's. Thanks.
Steve T

Download GenuineRisk.pdf

***

Hey Dan,
A horse I am part owner of is debuting Sunday at Saratoga in the 5th.  Her name is R Betty Graybull.  Can you take a look at her and tell me your thoughts?  I'm thinking she would be better off running longer than 5.5f, but her workouts of lately have been phenomenal (for a NYB filly..).  Here's one of her coming out of the gate in her final breeze on Aug 10 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohWWKtB5rz4)
All, please let me know your thoughts...she is the filly on the inside, closer to the rail.
Thanks
Sedonia

Congratulations on R Betty Graybull's big race at Saratoga last Sunday.  You could certainly make a case that she was best considering all the trouble she ran into throughout the event.  She was making a sharp move along the rail entering the turn, but was steadied hard and shuffled back.  R Betty Graybull then advanced in between horses, and was in a little tight turning for home, but she kept on gamely to finish third.  R Betty Graybull earned a 57 Beyer for the effort, and hopefully she came out of the race okay.  By the way she ran in her debut, you have to believe there is a state-bred maiden special weight with her name on it.  Please keep us posted on her condition as we'll be rooting for her when she next shows up in the entries.

***

...I have two questions, (1) you said you like the Pick 4 when there is a guaranteed pool, but is there any real value-added of a guaranteed pool if the track doesn't kick in any additional money?   I always thought a guaranteed pool was more of a marketing gimmick than anything else, i.e. a track may guarantee a $100K minimum pool but $120K is bet into it, so the track doesn't have to kick in a penny.  In such a case, is a guaranteed pool any better than a non-guaranteed pool?
Also (2) can you recap some of your recent "drop the old hammer" plays?  Not looking for amounts wagered or anything, just curious which horses you homed in on and whether the plays worked out or not. 
terry f

As for mostly playing Guaranteed Pick 4's, I find it's more psychological than practical.  I know there's going to be a big pool, and for some reason, I'm much more amped up to work on the sequence.  Plus, the Guaranted Pick 4's mostly are comprised of higher-quality stakes races, and I'm familiar with the horses.  As you guys know, ninety percent of my plays are in maiden, stakes, and high-level allowance races.  On a big day, I don't have to worry about "playing the claiming game."  Also, the marketing gimmick seems to work.  I think more money goes into "guaranteed pools" than the regular Pick 4.  A pool that usually would get 120K may get 200K, and the payoffs usually have exceeded the parlay.

We've all had circumstances where we absolutely love a horse, and can't wait to get to the track to play him.  After doing the work for a $50,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga on August 13, I loved Spina.  David Donk doesn't exactly have great numbers with first-time starters, but his runners had been live over the previous week, Spina's workouts jumped off the page, and the outside post position coupled with the low-profile breeding (by first-crop sire During) figured to deter bettors.   He was 8-1 on the morning line.  On my line, 9-2 was acceptable value.  He was 16-1 with two minutes to post.  This was a no-brainer.  I had to "drop the hammer."  No, not like Greg Valentine driving his elbow into Tito Santana's sternum.  No, not like Ivan Putski in his classic wars with Jesse "The Body Ventura."  I had to simply ignore the nagging feeling that the horse was "dead on the board," and that I had somehow missed something.  One of the worst mistakes a horseplayer can make is to be too afraid to play a longshot. 
I loaded up on Spina to Win, he won easily, and I felt like a genius.  Of course, there have been times when I've been wrong, have dropped a bundle, and am seen walking around the track muttering to myself like a Creedmore reject. 

***

Was there talk of a race together? Was it simply the case that Native Dancer was injured (last race 8/22) before an eventual meeting? If so, why didn't ND's connections take on Tom Fool earlier, like at the Saratoga meet?
GunBow

Here's what Evan Shipman wrote in his "Review of 1953 Races" in the 1954 American Racing Manual:

"Occasionally in an early season race such as the Suburban Handicap, a venturesome three-year-old will engage his elders.  Such forays have been rarely successful, and caution suggests that late summer or early fall is the soonest that colts can afford to meet horses in the handicap division on anything like equal terms..."

"...Native Dancer, for his part, could hardly have been tempted by the Suburban, but the champion was scheduled to meet Tom Fool at weight-for-age in the mile Sysonby in late September.  His fall program also was to include the Pimlico Special and the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  A bruised foot suffered during the running of the American Derby forced Native Dancer to pass up his opportunities to meet Tom Fool and other top older horses, the result being that the Sysonby and Pimlico Special were little more than gallops for Tom Fool..."

"...The trouble, when it came, was not unsoundness, but a stone bruise;  Native Dancer's underpinning had stood up wonderfully under the strain and stress of racing, and this mishap that was to deprive the public of the long-anticipated meeting with Greentree's Tom Fool was purely acccidental..."

One of the great disappointments of my father's life, besides my academic record, was that Tom Fool (his favorite horse) never faced off with Native Dancer.  This wasn't an example of cowardice, or an example of tracks writing races so that either ND or TF wouldn't face each either while increasing their stud value.  It merely was in the fates.  Native Dancer was injured, and the matchup never took place.

***

Also, could you post the PPs for some of the best female sprinters of our generation such as Safely Kept, Soviet Problem, Track Gal, Missy's Mirage, Meafara, Xtra Heat etc, and who do you think is the best of them all?
Mark

Here are the past performances you requested.  I'd like to hear who you think was best of these fillies and mares.

Download SprintGals.pdf

***

Hi Dan,
Enjoy the blog.  Wondering if you had any recollections of Black Ruby, the famed mule who just retired.  Does the DRF keep PPs on her?
Keep up the great work.
quickpick

She might be the most famous mule racer of all time.  Here are her past performances as well as some DRF stories:

Download BlackRuby.pdf

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=20166&subs=0&arc=1

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=38680&subs=0&arc=1

***

Anyone know what the deal with Fabulous Strike is?  I don't see him on the disabled list, but it's been awhile since I got a work notice on him.
Soli

I'll have to add him to the Disabled List (pardon me for being so far behind).  He ripped off a piece of the frog on the bottom of his front left foot while training for the Vanderbilt Handicap at Saratoga. 

***

can you tell me where to find the story that the mitch freidman horse pp's are posted  for. the question asking the pp's and the followup indicate a "backstory"
bobbyt1962

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=20350&subs=0&arc=1

***

Look for Monmouth to create a big purse turf race for Big Brown with all the conditions to his liking for 9/13 or 9/20 . Track owes him one for saving their meet by running in the Haskell. otherwise this has been the worst meet I have seen in the past 20 years, almost un-bettable...
dk

So it was written...so it has come to pass:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/97460.html

***

Dan
Could you give us Sarafan's PP's?  It's not often a retired racehorse gets to be a TV star. That is, if they ever show that episode on "The Cleaner".
Annie

Download Sarafan.pdf

***

Once again, I'm sorry for the sporadic postings.  Saratoga alone is usually difficult to get through, but I have some other projects in the fire as well.

Tomorrow, we'll look at the Travers Day stakes races as well as some other questions and comments.

Thanks,

Dan

***

Nice picks and analysis from our posters.  We had Magical Fantasies, Wassermans, Grand Couteriers, and plenty of other excellent winners.  Congrats, and hope everyone scored out.

Posted by dan_illman on August 21, 2008 | Permalink

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Comments

Black Ruby ran @ Ferndale last Sat.the 16TH.Finished third.

Posted by: ohiray on August 21, 2008 at 05:53 PM

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Sitting alone in front of the TV, I rooted so loudly for Proud Spell that the neighbors probably wondered what was going on and the cat hid under the bed.

I also had some verbal comments of a different sort when Bilo was pulled up after being thrown in for a $25K tag. Glad to hear he will hopefully be OK.

Posted by: Kyri on August 21, 2008 at 06:03 PM

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Laura,

Thanks so much for posting that on the "Ink". I picked the same horse as you did (Dreamalong) for that race. She got a really bad start, but rallied for the show.

I would put this filly in your barn because she's going to score. She might need more distance and definitely some schooling at the gate.

Posted by: Louisiana Lightnin' on August 21, 2008 at 06:31 PM

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Dan,

Thanks for the repeat of the Genuine Risk past champion retrospective. She will be missed.

buffalo joe,

Great post. LOL!

Posted by: Calvin Carter on August 21, 2008 at 07:16 PM

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Dan -

Spot on with your thoughts regarding the Music Note/Proud Spell stretch duel. I was at Del Mar and got just a tad bit excited watching the race live on the TV -- surely a few around me wished I had been a tad quieter -- but to me the stretch run deserved my excitement.

- RobertSD

Posted by: RobertSD on August 21, 2008 at 07:19 PM

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Sprint Gals

Soviet Problem was an absolutely dominating sprinter, and her narrow loss to Cherokee Run in the BC still bothers me.

She won on both turf and dirt, something the other fillies never did.

It's a shame we don't see more sprint fillies running against the boys, both Soviet Problem and Meafara were beaten by only a head against very good full fields in the BC Sprint.

Posted by: Steve T. on August 21, 2008 at 07:19 PM

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C –

“I'm actually curious what you see in Proud Spell that tells you she isn't cut out for the longer distances. No pedigree-based answers allowed.”

Given that pedigree is a major variable when making judgments about stamina abilities and limitations, what exactly would be the point of excluding it? So, like it or not, you’d have to go back to her fourth generation to find any meaningful stamina (i.e. 10f.+) influences. Of course that wouldn’t bother Calvin…or would it?

There is also nothing about the way in which she has run her races to suggest that she would appreciate a stiff 10f. Furthermore, very, very few “good” American-bred dirt horses are actually suited by 10f. races, which is no surprise given how few are run.

buffalo joe –

I appreciate the amusing response, but the analogy is potentially quite useful to those who don’t understand why pace is so important.

Posted by: Tinky on August 21, 2008 at 07:24 PM

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CalvinCarter,

I'd like to meet you as well.

It will be difficult to meet until after laborday. Where would you like to meet when its ok timewise?

Posted by: larryk on August 21, 2008 at 07:24 PM

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Sunds Card at DMR will give us that card the first Action This Day.

Posted by: larryk on August 21, 2008 at 07:45 PM

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ATTENTION FORMBLOGGERS:

If there is anyone who plans to go to Del Mar on Sunday, I have one extra seat available on the Clubhouse. Inadvertily I pressed two tickets instead of one, and now I have one extra seat. The location is pretty nice, just passed the finish line on the third level. The seat cost me $15, I will not charge you anything more for it, even that or we can go in a Pick 4 or Pick 3 together for the cost of the seat. So if you are interested let me know.

Tx...Ivan

Posted by: Ivan on August 21, 2008 at 07:45 PM

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larryk,

I'm not all that picky. You name the time and place and if my schedule permits, I'll be there.

I look forward to meeting you and learning more about the work you do rescuing thoroughbreds.

Posted by: Calvin Carter on August 21, 2008 at 07:54 PM

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Dan,

Great post.

Some questions and observations.

How do you, if you are training Meafara until September of her 4YO year, put only two GR3 wins on her resume?

Could someone please point out at what time juncture in the 1980 Preakness replay where Cordero struck Genuine Risk with his whip?

When I first saw your picture on the Blog Dan I thought you looked familiar. You were touring the facility when I saw you. I was the tall guy in the Rec Room who was being escorted back to my room by three large Creedmoor porters. I may have been a little excited but I did make eye contact with you though I had a more immediate issue to deal with.

"Ask him if pace makes race. Ask him if pace makes race. Go AHEAD, ASK HIM IF PACE MAKES RACE."

***

BigEasy,

Are you a gadget guy? If so, one $120 Bluetooth earbud combined with an ADW account will eliminate lines, allow you to see the horses on the track, and possibly catch any late "wiseguy" tote action. Not to mention adjust on the fly in case of a late scratch.

Just do yourself favor. Make a print out for all wager codes before hand so you don't do what I did.

Posted by: Mathieu on August 21, 2008 at 08:38 PM

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SUNDAY PPs for FORMBLOG BREEDERS' CUP DREAMING:

I still can't find "free" PPs for the Del Mar Handicap. For Sunday's 5 races, I have 4 PPs - I can't find "free" PPs for the Rancho Bernardo (aka "The Revenge of Magnificience") Handicap. Also listed the Premium picks for Sunday's 4 PP races:

Ballerina Stakes: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/dougoneill_121931.pdf
Pacific Classic: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/eoinharty_121981.pdf
Rancho Bernardo Hndcp: ?????
Del Mar Mile Hndcp: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_121998.pdf
Pat O'Brien Hndcp: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/baffert_121970.pdf

PREMIUM PICKS:
Ballerina: Baroness Thatcher (Zayat, Mott)
Pacific Classic: Go Between (Mott)
Rancho Bernardo: ?
Del Mar Mile: x
Pat O'Brien: x

Posted by: Alan on August 21, 2008 at 08:56 PM

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Dan,

My dad and I are back up in Saratoga until Sunday morning. If you are coming up here for the Travers then send me an e-mail.

Posted by: Travers on August 21, 2008 at 09:16 PM

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jim tully,

I agree. Court Vision is primed for a top effort. His last race on turf was for sure his best race yet, but like you said, him liking the distance could be a huge factor. Some people forget hes a multiple graded stakes winner and g1 placed on the dirt. His post does not help him by any means but we think he can get over near midpack or something like that. He will have enough time from the break to get over before the turn, there should be enough room. Don't go betting all your money though. We've been pretty damn cold these days

Posted by: Riley on August 21, 2008 at 09:22 PM

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CalvinCarter,

Whats a good day for you?

Rescuing Tbreds:It goes back to my hometown New Holland, which has the sales which provides a place for bidders to congregate and buy horses for slaughter. It so pisses me off. Can you believe that a horse bred by Darley out of Danzig(sold for 1.3 million)up end there because it had neurological disease? True...

We'll talk bout some stuff later.

I won't be back from visiting my parents in PA until Sept 5 or 6.

Posted by: larryk on August 21, 2008 at 09:33 PM

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Buffalo Joe,

Kudos for the cleverest point ever made on the Formblog. That got a good chuckle out of me.

I'm not the biggest pedigree guy and as a result tend to stay away from maiden races where most of the field is a first timer. Sure, I look at it. It matters. Traits are certainly passed generation to generation. But I have always thought the great ones came from relative obscurity. Tiznow, the topic of much discussion recently, for example, wasn't impeccably bred.

Another human analogy, if you will. I got to see the greatest athlete ever play in my hometown. Michael Jordan was tall, fast, extremely athletic and would cut your heart out to win at anything. But if you examined his parents, James and Deloris, not in a million years could you have predicted that one of their sons would grow to be 6'6". I think James was about 5'7" and neither of Michael's brothers grew to be very tall. His two sons as well didn't grow as tall. Jeffrey is listed at 6'1" but is probably 6'. He walked on at Illinois and saw playing time but it's a huge longshot he ever makes the NBA. The younger Marcus, now a senior in HS, is 6"2" or 6'3" and is being recruited by some major programs like Mich State. He has a chance to be a good player but doubtful he'll ever achieve anything close to his father.

So let's say I'm sterile but want to have kids that can exceed their old man's 10" vertical and be the basketball player I could never be(I'm 5'11" and slow but I can flat out shoot the rock and have mad handle). I can choose from any man on the planet to, ahem, donate his "talents." Would I ask Jordan? Not Likely. I would instead go with Rick Barry. He had 3 sons who played in the NBA: John, Drew and Brent(although Drew Bounced around here and in Europe). And a fourth, Scooter, who was one of the Miracles of Danny (Manning) and the Miracles' NCAA championship team. Not a bad sire, eh? Time will tell if he becomes a sire of sires.

As far as Usain Bolt goes, he may or may not have the cardiovascular capacity to compete at 1500 meters but he's already hinted he might try the 400 at the next Olympics. With his long stride, I think he can easily "get" the distance.

Posted by: jim tully on August 21, 2008 at 10:03 PM

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Mathieu,

Not really a gadget guy but will be able to access a couple of my wagering accounts if necessary. 1 small problem is that I will be flying in from vegas morning of BC and did not want to have to load up my accounts AND be prepared to pay off any markers in vegas when I get back home.

Open to any and all suggestions and thanks.

BigEasyBigChok

Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on August 21, 2008 at 11:01 PM

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larryk,

Any day is good for me. Look forward to meeting you.

Posted by: Calvin Carter on August 21, 2008 at 11:33 PM

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Tinky,

Knock yourself out.

I have no problem going back 4 and 5 generations into the pedigree (By the way, neither does Federico Tesio). You, however, seem to have a problem with that.

But you really don’t have to go back that far. Proud Spell is a descendent of the Mr. Prospector bloodline and that is all you need to know that she is very capable of easily getting a route of ground.

Posted by: Calvin Carter on August 21, 2008 at 11:39 PM

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Laura,

I am in for the Friday night chat, but I will have to leave at 10:30 pm ET/9:30 pm CT. I'll be sure to show up well before your start time. Thanks for holding it, and see you Friday!

Posted by: PGM on August 21, 2008 at 11:47 PM

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larryk;

Sir...never-you-mind about the 1 horse in the 5th at Del Mar today. I had cast my lot with the 5 (What a Wish), who did manage to finsih DAL.

I appreciate that you, Steve T, Al Hattaab, Calvin Carter, Ivan, Leo, Ed, etc. put your picks out there for all to see (and use). I am a big boy. I know what I am doing (sort of). I saw what what saw after you posted, and I took a second look. I agreed with that gamble. It cost me very little.

The day was like most of the days for me during this meet. I was right here-and-there, terribly wrong here-and-there, and pretty darn close in many. I lost again, but not much. I have remained steadfast in my disciplined approach this year, and because of my huge 1st quarter (with thanks to many, Steve T most-notably), I can only fall into-the-red this year by a lack of discipline.

Nevertheless, I appreciate your (and others) picks. By the way, nice Exacta and Trifecta in the 1st today, Ivan! Steve T...you continue to amaze me here. You had some very nice picks as well, and I now think I have to start paying way more attention to those whom you pick first. I have had many close-call Superfecta's where if I had substituted your first pick with my first pick...nevermind.

Good night, good people.
Van Savant

Posted by: Van Savant on August 22, 2008 at 12:06 AM

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Justin..Zayat connections

I hope Haramati came out of his race ok,
I saw the spill he almost took when Copper Forest veered 2-3 paths out from the rail in the stretch.
(Arlington #5 8/21) and veered into him,
The jockey of Haramati was lucky to stay on over his neck...
I hope he comes out of the race ok, and I thought this was a just penalty (CF DQ)

.....................
Stephen Taylor
I'll look for Cooler on the Lake for his next start...Grayston looked real strong on the lead & finished well in Arlington # 4.
Best of luck next out...

& Katieattherail..ahhh "Grayston" is a PGH.

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on August 22, 2008 at 12:06 AM

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Alan,

I don't think Uncle steve owns Lethal heat ....yet.
Negotiations are ongoing...

Posted by: cayman01 on August 22, 2008 at 12:24 AM

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Buffalo Joe,

Glad you enjoyed the Ivarone interview. I'll tell you, I am really glad I listened to it. As you well know Byk was not easy on him. You can't help coming away from that without somewhat of a positive perspective in regard to Ivarone's and IEAH's view, and business like decisions made so far.

I really like Big Brown the horse. After hearing what I feel were very candid, and honest answers from the "horses" mouth---it will now be much easier for me to root for BB!

BTW, that little play on words with Bolts pedigree is a Formblog classic, how clever. And Tinky, by all means don't take that as a bash towards you. While I don't always agree with your thoughts, theorys, etc. I do enjoy your post.

Have a question for you Tinky. While several great races this weekend, the one I am really want to see is the Victory Ride S. at the Spa. Indyanne is right up there with Zenyatta with the WOW factor. I find it amazing that Gilchrist keeps coming up with these speed balls. How the heck does he do that, IYO?

Posted by: johnnyz on August 22, 2008 at 12:34 AM

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Dan, another excellent post. Thanks for addressing the reason why there was never a Native Dancer-Tom Fool meeting. Interesting to know your Dad's favorite horse was Tom Fool. Frankly, not having seen Tom Fool's races and only his pps, I feel he is a tad overrated and can't believe he's ranked ahead of Affirmed (11th and 12th respectively) in the Bloodhorse Top 100. What made Tom Fool THAT great in the eyes of your father and so many others?
Dan, thanks also for the past perfromances of Sarafan, Black Ruby, and the great female sprinters of the 90s. Sarafan was a personal favorite and I saw him in person win the 02' Eddie Read, run 2nd in both the 02' Kilroe Mile and Arlington Million (beaten by a head and neck), and run a close 4th in the 04' Kilroe.
Black Ruby was an amazing mule and was quite the sensation in California in the early years of this decade. Looking at her pps, I noticed she had winning streaks of 16, 12 and 10, and after one of her losses to Taz reeled off 26 of 27 and 31 of 33. I think her September 8th, 2002 match race against longtime rival Taz came in the morning at Del Mar. From what I remember, Del Mar officials were dubious about the interest in a mule race so they scheduled it in the morning. These officials were shocked, to say the least, when thousands got there early to see Black Ruby beat Taz. Correct me if my memory is off.
Those are 5 super sprinting fillies and mares Dan featured. I was a big fan of Soviet Problem. She was so big, smooth and elegant and accomplished a feat that should be rarer and rarer- winning 2 match races. She defeated the male, Lazor, on dirt in NoCal, and then beat the excellent female, Mamselle Bebette, on the turf. However, if I were to rank the 5, I would put Xtra Heat ahead of her and Safely Kept first. Xtra Heat won 26 of her 35 career races, and was in the money 33 times, with one of those two non-placings occurring in her only route race. Safely Kept won at an even higher rate, going 24 for 31 while NEVER finishing worse than 4th. Ironically, she won the Breeder's Cup Sprint when she was 2nd best(Dayjur jumping shadows) and ran 2nd when I feel she ran best(putting away the insanely fast Olympic Prospect only to be nailed at the wire by Dancing Spree).

Posted by: GunBow on August 22, 2008 at 12:37 AM

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Steve T, I like your terminology for slow bettors as "phone book bettors". Sometimes it does seem as if people are going through the entire phone book at the window and thowing every number in their bet. My friends and I coined them novelists, because it seemed like they were taking enough time to write a book at the window.

Posted by: GunBow on August 22, 2008 at 12:41 AM

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I should probably keep this opinion to myself, but I finally watched the 1980 Preakness for the first time this evening and I honestly was somewhat underwhelmed by the Genuine Risk-Codex incident. Given how some feel so passionately that Cordero brutalized Genuine Risk and Codex should have clearly been dq'd, I was expecting it to be alot worse. There was actually very little contact between Genuine Risk and Codex and I cannot see where Cordro supposedly struck Genuine Risk with his whip. Watching the nextwork replay (the one Dan provided the link for), I saw no reason for a dq.
However, there is another replay on Youtube, which I believe is the Pimlico feed, which does seem to provide at least some validation for those calling for a dq. This replay, providing a head-on view entering the stretch, clearly shows how wide Cordero moved Codex on the turn. And Genuine Risk was clearly sent wide as a result. However, there really wasn't much contact between the two horses. It is entirely plausible, though, that Jacinto Vasquez sent Genuine Risk wide because he saw what Cordero was doing and wanted to avoid any contact. Yet, because there was little actual contact the Pimlico racing officials could claim that Codex did not impede Genuine Risk and that Genuine Risk was running wide on her own as a result of the momentum generated coming off the turn. What exactly is the rule and common judgment for when a horse is forced to alter course in the ANTICIPATION of contact with a horse that is not maintaining a straight path? For there is no question that Codex was not maintaining a straight path. Would Genuine Risk have not run as wide if Cordero wasn't pushing Codex so wide, or was she running wide on her own accord as the Pimlico stewards must have concluded? Contact or not, I do believe Vasquez was forced to move the gallant filly wider than she would have gone had Cordero not been riding so aggressively. How much wider? Did it cost Genuine Risk the race? Those are tough questions.

Posted by: GunBow on August 22, 2008 at 01:11 AM

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Thanks Tully, but you are forgetting Bolts female line, you don't think I'd make up that line about generations of stayers on his dams side. It's good information, I got it from a guy who got from a guy who knows Bolt's 2nd cousin who works at a Publix in south Florida. Honest!

Posted by: buffalo joe on August 22, 2008 at 02:02 AM

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Having raised the topic, I think I should probably chime in with my rankings of the best thoroughbred of the decade.
I respect Ghostzapper and his insanely high Beyer figs and LOVE his 05' Met Mile, but I just do not believe he accomplished enough, particularly around two turns, to have the title of horse of the deacde. I could not argue with those who claim that in a race-off of the best of the decade he would win; if my life depended on picking the winner of such a race I would probably pick him too, even at 10 furlongs where I feel he was somewhat unproven. Although not horse of the decade, I would rank him ahead of Lava Man and the three year old stars Point Given and Smarty Jones. Lava Man accomplished so much more than Ghostzapper and was a personal favorite, but the disparity in spped/brilliance and in any hypothetical match race tilts the advantage to Ghostzapper.
Point Given and Smarty Jones had wonderful three year old campaigns, with Point Given also winning a grade 1 as a juvenile and running second by a nose in the Breeders Cup. However, neither defeated older horses, and their speed figures were a step below the top older horses of the deacde. Both could end up being elected to the Hall of Fame, but I consider them to be inferior to recent 3 year old stars such as Sunday Silence, Easy Goer, and Holy Bull. Honorable mention for three year old seasons of the decade go to Afleet Alex (who also won a grade 1 at 2 and ran second in the BC Juvenile), Bernardini, Barbaro, and Curlin (more on him later). If you include Empire Maker, Fusaichi Pegasus, Came Home, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Street Sense, and Hard Spun there was some serious talent in this decade's Triple Crown races. Unfortunately, of those listed above, only Curlin and Funny Cide ran beyond their 3 year old seasons. What could have been?
Ghostzapper ranks 3rd on my horse of the decade list. While Ghostzapper's speed figures were higher than my top two horses, Tiznow and Invasor, the difference was not great enough to compensate for what I believe to be their superior accomplishments. I did not fully comprehend what Invasor had done in his career until he won the Dubai World Cup in a dramatic duel with the very good Premium Tap. With that win, Invasor had captured 6 straight grade 1 races, at 6 different tracks, thrice at the classic 10 furlong distance. In the Dubai World Cup, Invasor revenged the only defeat of his career, defeating the very horse, Discreet Cat, at the track he had suffered his only defeat in 12 career races. Normally, I would not pay much mind to races in Uruguay, but having seen his Triple Crown sweep on Youtube, I cannot simply ignore the fact that he won 3 group 1 races there. After the World Cup, I came to believe that Invasor could very well compile a career record that would rival Cigar's for the best since Spectacular Bid; he just seemed to always run true regardless of the track, distance, or competition and had a knack of elevating his game on the biggest stages. Of course, in what was a frequent refrain, Invasor would be injured and not make a start after the World Cup.
Before discussing Tiznow, I must confess that I am biased. I only saw Gostzapper run once, in his second race, an allowance for non-winners one other than, on opening day at Santa Anita 2002; he ran 4th beaten 7 and a half lengths. I had better luck with Invasor, as the one race I saw him run in, the 2006 Breeders Cup Classic, he beat an outstanding field to secure Horse of the Year. As for Tiznow, I was on-track for four of his races, and he won them all. I saw him as an unknown 3 year old when he outgamed the very good favorite, Dixie Union, in the Affirmed. I aslo saw him in his most dominating performance, a 5 length romp in the 2001 Santa Anita Handicap. Then, there were the two Breeders Cup Classics. I really don't have to write anything else about those two races other than that 2001 Classic was the most epic race I have ever seen on the most amazing day of racing I have ever attended. If you include his wins in the grade 1 Super Derby, the grade 2 Goodwood Handicap where he outfought 4 time grade 1 winner Captain Steve, and the grade 2 San Fernando, and the fact that after his debut he never ran worse than 3rd, Tiznow has a solid case for horse of the decade. Tiznow was actually on the Hall of Fame ballot this year, losing to overdue Manila, and it should only be a matter of time before he is elected. Chis McCarron paid Tiznow a great compliment when he placed him with John Henry and Alysheba as one of the 3 best horses he has ever ridden. Again, however, the gap between Tiznow, Invasor, and Ghostzapper is very narrow, and one cannot be faulted in selecting any one of them as horse of the decade. And, if one is being thorough, the discussion would not be complete without mentioning Mineshaft, Saint Liam, Pleasantly Perfect, Medalgia d' Oro, Congaree, and Candy Ride and even horses such as Southern Image, Captain Steve, Peace Rules, Roses in May, Perfect Drift, Lemon Drop Kid, Albert the Great, Rock Hard Ten, and English Channel. Of course, I've purposely focused on North American based runners. In many ways, this has been a golden decade for Europe, Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia as each, in contrast to the US, has produced a number of horses that will go down as among the best horses to Ever race (in those rsepctive regions). Finally, no talk about the best North American horse of the decade would be complete without mentioning Azeri. If one disregards sex and age, Azeri stands out as the horse of the deacde in the US. She is the only horse this decade who has had an undisputed Hall of Fame career. And unlike Ghostzapper, Invasor, and Tiznow who compare unfavorably with horses within just the past 15 years (Cigar, Skip Away), Azeri ranks alongside the very best females to ever grace a North American tack.
What then of Curlin and Big Brown? As I commented in my original post, both are in position to capture that mythical horse of the deacde title. However, they must do what few horses in their position have been able to do this decade- keep running.

Posted by: GunBow on August 22, 2008 at 02:41 AM

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Dan, do you have the Beyer speed figures for the stakes races run at Pinnacle RaceCourse this past weekend?

Moonbeam Handicap- Half A Glance

Michigan Breeder's Cup- All I Can Get

Posted by: GunBow on August 22, 2008 at 02:45 AM

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For Friday at Saratoga:

#1: Globalization, High Brass, Stone Bird
#2: Platinum Girl, Dream Empress, Skip Away Belle
#3: Sugarless, Speed Storm, Mutakaway
#4: Onoitsmymotherinlaw, Cocktail Attire, Artistic Talent
#5: Slick Wheelie, Captain Sword, Narration
#6: Dancing Fern, Smokin Sarah, Say Toba Sandy
#7: Mogul Man, Cinder Cone, Fitness
#8: Caprice, Pretty Carolina, Duchess Royale
#9: Ginger Punch, Unbridled Belle, Lemon Drop Mom
#10: C Street, Constabulary, So It Goes

BEST BET: Ginger Punch
LONGSHOT: Sugarless

Good Luck!!!

Posted by: Ivan on August 22, 2008 at 02:46 AM

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johnnyz –

"I find it amazing that Gilchrist keeps coming up with these speed balls. How the heck does he do that, IYO?"

Good question, but I'm afraid that I have no insights to offer. I've never been close to the Northern California circuit, and have never heard any reliable, relevant information about Gilchrist.

Speaking of Northern California, I'd say that one of the fastest, little-remembered horse to race in the U.S. in the last 25 years was King Glorious. Brilliant colt, and could have been an all-time great sprinter if his connections hadn't succumbed to Derby fever.

Posted by: Tinky on August 22, 2008 at 06:52 AM

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PGM

I believe DMR is having a $1 Million Dollar Guarantee Pick 6 on Sunday for Pacific Classic Day.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on August 22, 2008 at 07:31 AM

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Steve T

Yes, the winner of DMR's first race yesterday would have made a good story, but I would have had to do a Pick 8.

But, here's Saratoga's Pick 6 for Saturday:

BARON VON TAP stepped out of the bath and admired himself in the full-length mirror. He had been looking forward to this night with a THROBBIN' HEART; and at last it was here.

The mirror was old and slightly wavy and may have DISTORTED REALITY a bit; but he was pleased with his reflection and said happily to himself, "I'M SO LUCKY TIZBIG, FRA LIPPO will not be disappointed."

Annie

Posted by: Annie on August 22, 2008 at 07:42 AM

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Cooler by the Lake just didn't show as much early speed as I thought he would-sorry to anyone who joined me in dropping a few $$$$ on him. (The DQ in the 5th saved me though at Arlington-gave me the 5th tri, exacta, and the last pick 4-not bragging because I freely admit it was luck!)

Alan- for Saturday give me Transduction Gold at Delmar and Ft. Prado at Arlington in the contest (Douglass is money in big races at AP and I like the route to sprint to sprint angle) Mr Nightslinger is a deserving favorite without a doubt but at this point even money ain't gonna cut it!

Posted by: Stephen Taylor on August 22, 2008 at 07:42 AM

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Sund 2 yrold Mdn Watch at DMR
InternallyFlawless toyed with 1st out winner Midshipmen in a recent wo

Posted by: larryk on August 22, 2008 at 08:07 AM

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Everyone,

Today's Iron Maidens are available at
http://www.thoroughbredink.com

Everyone (inclucing Dan) is welcome to drop in at chat, even if you can't stay for the entire handicapping session. Steve T told me he was making cupcakes.

Posted by: laura on August 22, 2008 at 08:07 AM

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One of the best angles before the Derby has been the shippers from SC training on the Syn. I expect it to continue this wkend in Travers.
I think both TB and CJ have big shots. And no jockey is hotter than Tyler Baze.

Posted by: larryk on August 22, 2008 at 08:57 AM

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Bobby Frankel& Roids:

I am not pointing the finger and love Frankel as much as anyone but I can't help but wonder if his recent struggle's may be tied to Steroid legislation in Cali. He just can't find a winner and all those euro's he ships in are not running a step. I can't help but wonder, I'm not that well informed on Frankel's past suspensions if there are any etc. Can someone enlighten me or give their opinion on whats going on with this guys barn. Because lack of quality doesn't appear to be it.

Posted by: Hillbilly on August 22, 2008 at 09:17 AM

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Dan,

Thanks for your comments on R Betty Graybull. She came out of the race fine, only a few superficial cuts, and actually returned to the track yesterday for a one mile jog, but wanted more. We're sure her next race will be much better. It was a great experience to be at Saratoga this weekend, although it was a bit crowded - presumably for the free t-shirt giveaway.

Posted by: Sedonia on August 22, 2008 at 09:27 AM

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Hey Everybody!

Long time, no post but I got a cheap flight home and hit Saratoga this week. Highlights?

1) Proud Spell going eye to eye with Music Note and standing at the winner circle with the crowd offering praise to Larry Jones. It was great to see Larry soak in the moment.

2) Yesterday, mid-day, Asmussen decided to take the boys for a walk and treated the crowd to an up close viewing of Curlin, Pyro and J Be K in the paddock. Curlin's caboose makes you think 'draft horse'- what a specimen.

For all the conflicts upon these shores, taking my Mom to the Spa to soak in the best of our sport made my summer. It all clicked, and we even got in the backstretch tour including several sightings of Funny Cide with Barclay Tagg aboard.

All the best to all of you,

Jason

Posted by: Jason in Austria on August 22, 2008 at 10:19 AM

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Well nobody can say that Barry Abrams is afraid of running his horses. Lethal Heat jumps from a Grade 1 run on the turf to the saltiest filly sprint I can remember in the Rancho San Bernardo. Now she gets to run against Dearest Tricksi and Magnificience, now there's a break...

She may be scratched, but if she looks good today and tomorrow, he could very well run her.

Just to recap

05-11-08 7F Grd-3 Main 3rd
06-08-08 8.5F Grd-2 Main 1st
07-04-08 8F HCP-114K Turf 6th
07-20-08 7F HCP-108K Main 1st
08-08-08 7F HCP-108K Main 1st
08-16-08 9F Grd-1 Turf 3rd
08-24-08 6.5F Grd 3 Main ??

Posted by: Steve T. on August 22, 2008 at 10:22 AM

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Bad news on the cupcakes, the neighborhood kids have done gone and ate em up. Wife gets home and says "hey where are the cupcakes". Being the smart ass I am, said "the Icy Hots ate them...". Bad response, I got the "we could own a cupcake factory if you would listen to me...".

Van Savant,

You are having the same problem the rest of us are having at Del Mar - boom or bust. And the Sunday card is mega tough. The one thing I will say about DM this year is there are a bunch of horses that win easily and then do nothing next run.

On the Travers,

My gut is screaming Tres Borrachos as a longshot. You would think he has no chance at 10 panels, but he seems to be getting stronger and based on his run at Oaklawn, may be better on dirt. At 15-1 he deserves a look. Also like Alan's crush Mambo in Seattle. I think this race will be a big payer.

Posted by: Steve T. on August 22, 2008 at 10:43 AM

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The "Horse of the Decade" debate is an intriguing one and a bit like a Rorschach test....there are no correct answers....only interesting interpretations.

In any debate that attempts to answer "Who's the best _______, I always look for two vital characteristics: consistency and versatility. In this instance, the consistency question knocks out alot of very talented horses with abbreviated careers. A consistent horse in my view is one that can win the big races over the course of at least two racing seasons. He might have a few bumps in the road during this time, but has the ability to rise to the occasion on the big days. With this in mind, a horse like Tiznow, who won the Classic two years in a row deserves serious consideration for HOTD.

However, the versatility question clearly favors a horse like Ghostzapper. Not only did he win Grade 1 races at 3,4 and 5 years of age, he had the versatility to win at 6.5, 8 and 10 Furlongs (the Vosburgh at 3, the Classic at 4, and the Met Mile at 5). Unfortunately, in this age of specialization, many top horses are not given the opportunity to run at shorter distances beyond their first few races. I would have liked to have seen horses such as Tiznow, Point Given and Curlin run at shorter distances during their prime. In my book, a truly great horse is one that can run you off your feet in a sprint, as well as win the classic races.

Posted by: Gorgeous Georgie on August 22, 2008 at 11:06 AM

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Laura, chat starts at 9:30 eastern tonight?

Travers pace scenario...
Most of the articles I've read seem to believe there will be a fast pace in the Travers because of Tizbig.

I'm a little skeptical...Why would Allen Jerkens put this horse in if all they were going to do is run for 5 furlongs neck and neck with Da'Tara? Zito has maintained he's going to the lead, and why not? So if Tizbig runs with Da'Tara, you have Jim Dandy redux. What exactly would be the point of that? I do think Da'Tara will get away with reasonable fractions here. Of course this is a much tougher field than the Belmont (minus Big Brown). I'm pretty sure he's not good enough, but I do think he's going to have a reasonable chance to get to 6 furlongs in 1:11/4 or 1:12 and then we'll see what happens. I'm just not sold they'll be going 1:10 and change in this race.

BTW I like Mambo in Seattle, and I think the Colonel is very logical too. I'm moderately concerned about the pace though for both of them, less so for the Colonel because he was quicker early last time despite a so-so performance and he has an inside draw. I don't want any part of Pyro or Macho Again.

Anybody know by the way, why in the King's Bishop, are the two Vinery horses, different trainers, coupled in the wagering, while in the Travers, there are three LaPenta/Zito horses and they are uncoupled?

Posted by: Greg on August 22, 2008 at 11:12 AM

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DEL MAR – Friday (08-22-2008)

Race 1 – Orientation Hall
Race 2 – Marzelline
Race 3 – Deanne’s Ring
Race 4 – Kizzy’s Chaos
Race 5 – Traffic Update
Race 6 – A Cat Named Snipe
Race 7 – Cassablanca
Race 8 – Belle’s Bounty

Posted by: Steve T. on August 22, 2008 at 11:18 AM

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Haramati came out good, thanks for your concern.

Posted by: Justin Zayat on August 22, 2008 at 11:32 AM

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DMR Frid Thoughts:
1-like 3 and 5 at a price
2-3,2
4-9,5,11
7-10
8-11,8,9

Posted by: larryk on August 22, 2008 at 12:57 PM

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Tinky, nice to see someone mention King Glorious. In that tough crop of 1989, KG may have been 3rd best. I know he didn't run in a Triple Crown race but I think it was because he was injured. At 2 he won the 6 furlong Hollywood Juvenile Stakes in 1:08 and 4, the 7 furlong Hollywood Prevue in 1:21 and 1 and took the one mile grade 1 Hollywood Futurity easily. I do not recall if he was pointed for the Classics, but was injured in any event. After losing the only race in his 9 race career in the 8.5 Gold Rush Stakes in NoCal, he reeled off easy wins in the 9 furlong Ohio Derby and grade 1 Haskell. His trademark was going out really fast early, opening large leads, then taking a breather as the field got on even terms only to find another gear and draw off in the stretch. I can't remember if the Breeders Cup Sprint or Classic was his primary goal before being injured after the Haskell.

Posted by: GunBow on August 22, 2008 at 01:00 PM

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I haven't yet seen the film, but a while back there was considerable discussion about The First Saturday In May - the film following six horses as they prepped for the 2006 Kentucky Derby.
I just ordered a copy on DVD and am eagerly awaiting its arrival.
For those interested you can read more about it or order a copy at
http://www.thefirstsaturdayinmay.com/

Posted by: Billy on August 22, 2008 at 01:02 PM

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Big Easy,

Thanks for the thought concerning TS Fay. Being from New Orleans, I would guess Katrina is especially heavy on your mind. BTW, when I was a child, we lived in Slidell, La. (accross Lake P.)when my father worked for Crysler Aerospace.

Steve T,

This freakin storm is one big pain in the a- -. The eye went from hovering over the Atlantic to passing over Palm Coast (south of St. Augustine) and meandering to Gainesville at about 2-3 mph (I kid you not)! It has been raining here for 24 hours straight-sheets of rain, and pretty hight winds-a couple of gusts hit 75 mph. I have tree limbs all over the back yard (I have 1/3 of an acre) and the neighbors man made pond is over its crest.

BTW, when I say "Man made pond" I don't mean some backyard fish pond. I am talking about a 60 foot by 175 foot lake that is 12 feet deep with 2 gators, snakes, a ton of frogs and toads, all of which will likely be seeking higher ground once the crest breaks.

They are telling us at least 24 more hours of solid rain. For 6 hours straight last night the wind was a solid 45-55 mph without a break. We lost power once for 2 hours last night. TG for generators.

I have a 100 pound plus Doberman who is going stir crazy, and can be a real SOB if he does not get exercise.
The entire time he went out today to take care of business the wind was whirling and the rain was pelting him. This caused him to become very agitated and bare his teeth and snarl the entire time he is outside.

My other dog, A Shephard, Malamute, Chow mix, brings in half of the rain on his coat and shakes it all over the house even though we towel him off before he hits the carpet. Somehow, to my wife it is my fault when he is so waterlogged from just 5 minutes in the backyard.

I have been through cat 3 and 4 hurricaines, the kind where you feel the house shudder, watch the trees bend back and forth and swear with each gust the roof is coming off the house with 100 plus mph winds. But those were over in a few hours, or 24 hours in the case of Ivan and Jeane. This crazy tropical storm will actually do as much damage and cause much more flooding due to its prolonged exposure.

BTW, PGM, floods are over with pretty quick, and then they are gone? What do you base that on? Flood waters get in the house, the yard, sewage contaminates it, people's homes get ruined. You can never get that unsanitary stench fully out of the house without replacing the floor and drywall. And the water has snakes and gators in them sometimes. That is a fine how-ya-do when you open that door.

So, we are grinding it out down here in South Vietnam, er, I mean northeast Florida.
And also, BTW, as usual, several fools are injured and one poor young lady is dead after trying to surf in the Atlantic in this weather. Stupid move, driftwood and riptide (and 15-20 foot waves) will knock you out and pull you under...

Johnny Z,

You are not alone. I am very excited about Indyanne, she has impressed me with her hard charging, dominating victories. Yes, to the wow factor.

Calvin,

Thanks for sharing that with me about Tesio, I am going to try and find that book.

Would have loved to see HS just run once to see how far he would go-absent the rating hold.

Re: Mr. Bolt from Jamaica:

Actually, the analysis is even more interesting than it may appear at first blush.

I will explain more in my next post, but I was a very athletic teenager who played basketball, had between a 37-40 inch vertical leap, was just under 6-4, and was on the top rated track team in the eastern US for 2 years. I was very fast, but there was 2 guys at my high school who had world class speed. Both were 5-7. I was constantly told that my height made me more suitable for longer distances (long stride). This despite the fact that I could fly.

I was delighted to see Bolt at 6-4 or 6-5 win that gold. His form resembles that of a miler, however. Long strides, etc. He is redefining the prototype for a champion sprinter. The key for long legged sprinters is to actually leap forward-exploding out of the blocks.

Against that backdrop, Tinky's comparison is actually quite telling and interesting. Having run between 100 to 800 meters, I can tell you that lane position determines how fast that you pace yourself in the intermediate sprints. The lanes are staggered, remember. While the mile is much more traditional, the pace determined by the frontrunner.

As I stated previously, I will explain this more in my next post when I am not dealing with this velcro tropical storm. Suffice it to say, if Bolt simply paced himself at the same pace as the milers (slow) they would bury him.
If he utilized his great speed to increase the pace to a point where it was uncomfortable for a mile pace, but a summer stroll for a sprinter, with those long strides and endurance he might go out 10-20 lengths ahead for the first 600 meters or so, and after that the closers would begin to reel him in. The key would be how much Bolt could force the pace beyond the closer's comfort zone. If so, he might outlast them solely on his speed and long stride (and huge early lead). If he stayed with the pack at their pace, he would have nothing in the stretch because a sprinter like Bolt must exert his cardiovaslular system to increase his lung capacity, and then he could really stride off to an insurmountable lead and hold on to possibly win at the end.

This is probably counterintuitive to what most believe in the horse racing community, and is probably the exact opposite of what Tinky's point was. But, this question regarding kinesiology and could a sprinter outrun milers is actually a question on the American College of Sportsmedicine Certification exam for fitness trainers and counselors. I will explain why a human sprinter, even one with s miler's stride, cannot beat a miler running at their pace in my next few posts.

Posted by: vicstu on August 22, 2008 at 01:18 PM

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Has there been an agreement for a start time of the Travers card chat at ThoroughbredInk.com tonight? If so please post.

Thanks.

Tony

Posted by: tony kelso on August 22, 2008 at 01:54 PM

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Greg---believe it has to do with the value of the race. Any $1M race in NY doesn't require coupling.

Posted by: G82YR on August 22, 2008 at 03:23 PM

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Greg:
The Colonels run in the Swaps had to do with the pace of the race that GG thought there would be, so he kept alot closer to the pace and that left very little for his kick. Plus, it was a small field. Small field big price. I think he has a big shot. SteveT kinda likes my other choice as well.

Posted by: larryk on August 22, 2008 at 03:42 PM

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Jason in Austria:

I personally don't think Frankels struggles are steroid related. He's got his strings alittle to strung out. I don't think his fingers are on the pulse of the operation. IMO

Posted by: larryk on August 22, 2008 at 03:45 PM

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I just found a counter to the OLA's - it is a series of jokes on "that's how the fight started"

I took my wife to a restaurant. The waiter, for some reason, took my order first. 'I'll have the strip steak, medium rare, please.' He said, 'Aren't you worried about the mad cow?' Nah, she can order for herself.'

And that's how the fight started.....

****************************

I rear-ended a car this morning. So, there we were alongside the road and slowly the other driver got out of his car. You know how sometimes you just get so stressed and little things just seem funny? Yeah, well I couldn't believe it.... he was a DWARF!!!

He stormed over to my car, looked up at me, and shouted, 'I AM NOT HAPPY!!!' So, I looked down at him and said, 'Well, then which one are you?'

And that's how the fight started.....

*****************************

After retiring, I went to the Social Security office to apply for Social Security. The woman behind the counter asked me for my driver's license to verify my age. I looked in my pockets and realized I had left my wallet at home. I told the woman that I was very sorry, but I would have to go home and come back later.

The woman said, 'Unbutton your shirt'. So I opened my shirt revealing my curly silver hair. She said, “that silver hair on your chest is proof enough for me” and she processed my Social Security application.

When I got home, I excitedly told my wife about my experience at the Social Security office.
She said, 'You should have dropped your pants. You might have gotten disability, too.'

And then the fight started.....

Posted by: Steve T. on August 22, 2008 at 04:33 PM

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I never cease to be amazed at the quality of this blog. I don't have a horse yet for the Travers but wonder why no one has mentioned Harlem Rocker who is 4-1 on the ML.

Posted by: ray flack on August 22, 2008 at 05:00 PM

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Dan-

Thanks for the trip down memory lane via Genuine Risk, I was in my mid 30's and at the height of my handicapping abilities, which has gone down hill in the mid 80's. I don't remember the exact year but, it was the legalization of LASIX (like someone stuck a knife in my heart), thats when my personal hell started and continues today with every designer durg(legal an Illegal alike) that has come along steriods probabbly being the LEAST of which has affected my handicapping. Anyway that is not subject of my post.

In reviewing the 80 Preakness, I now to do not feel it was nearly as bad as I thought then. I also felt Risk was compromised to the point she would have won, I no longer hold taht opinion.

What that race did for me as a bettor, was made me aware of Angel Cordero. (This was in a period before simulcast and living in Buffalo, I didn't have many opprotunities to see major US riders other than major televised events.) Cordero was then and continued to be for the rest of his days in the saddle, to be the signle most dominating, aggressive and fearless rider of his time, all of that and intelligent also. A case can be made for many of his contempories, in each aspect of riding, but none compared as a total package.

The only rider I can remember who could compare with Angel in that era, was the Cuban born Canadian jockey Avelino Gomez. Becauce of visa problems was unable to compete in the US very often (Castro v.US) so he missed 3 - 4 mos. a year, but on very few occasions did winter in So. Fl. and once or twice led the North American rider standings. Had he beeen allowed to travel freely across the US border it is hard to imagine how many classic races he would have won as many of canadian jocks of the era left for greener pastures in the US. Chris Rogers, Don MacBeth, Jeff Fell, Ron Turcotte all rode with him. I'd like to ask Fell, Turcotte or Cordero himself their thoughts on El Senor or the Cuban Slasher as he was known.

Posted by: buffalo joe on August 22, 2008 at 05:44 PM

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SteveT-

Henny Youngman is dead, but you are keeping his memory alive. Bravo, we need a break from the stress of handicapping.

Posted by: buffalo joe on August 22, 2008 at 05:51 PM

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Alan Contest Picks:

Arl Sprint-Mighty Rule
Del Mar Hcp-Spring House
Ballerina Miraculous Miss
Rancho Bernardo-Tiz Elemental
Pat O'Brien-Barbecue Eddie
Del Mar Mile-Storm Military
Pac Classic-Awesome Gem

Thanks

Posted by: TMM on August 22, 2008 at 06:07 PM

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For Friday at Del Mar:

#1: Little Dude, Orientation Hall, Bullya
#2: Desertstormerlite, Marzelline, Hopehopehope
#3: True Suggestion, Hottodi, Dances with Tigers
#4: Legend of My Own, Honouramongfriends, Larrylarrylarry
#5: Dwango, Unusual Jail, Johnny High Brite
#6: A Cat Named Snipe, Valiant Effort, Wind's Legacy
#7: Miss Fremont, Lemon Punch, Quid Non
#8: Fastcar to Freedom, Virgin, Sagebrush Angel

BEST BET: Legend of my Own
LONGSHOT: True Suggestion

Good Luck!!!

Posted by: Ivan on August 22, 2008 at 06:25 PM

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Alan im really sorry to have to ask but what are the races for your contest this weekend and also is there a minimum # of races that we have to play?---regards Joe F,

Posted by: Joe F on August 22, 2008 at 06:35 PM

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Random Notes:

Ginger Punch:

Damn that Ginger Punch. I tried to beat her with Hysterical Lady last year in the Distaff, tried to beat her by spreading with the entire field to juice up a Pick-4 last time out (when she had all of the trouble and looked beaten at the top of the stretch) and then today she grinds up over my 9-1 Lemon Drop Mom by the most impossibly small margin.

Talk about being nostrilized.

Oh well, at least I don't have a reptile-infested lake overspilling its banks in my backyard. Damn Vicstu, sounds insane. Good luck with everything, and hope your Dobie doesn't decide to tangle with the neighbor's gators. Though from your previous description, I would certainly give him more than a sporting chance.

Re the Travers:

It's interesting to speculate what the pace scenario will be. I think that Tres B. has the best early speed. Da' Tara got run into the ground in his last race, and it doesn't seem like he's the type of horse that will do anything at all if taken off the pace, but I nevertheless don't completely rule out the possibility that Garcia adopts a stalking trip.

I do not think that Tiz Big will readily cede the lead to anyone. CV is typically very aggressive with a speed horse, and is smart enough to know that he needs to send hard to have any meager chance at all with this 70-1 shot.

I'm going with Tres B. to stalk Tiz Big and then take over when that one quits abruptly, hopefully while those two are still well separated from the field (I'm not really worried about Da Tara winning the race).

My other bet will be Macho Again, Pyro, Mambo and Tres B. in the exotics.

Posted by: James Mc. on August 22, 2008 at 07:12 PM

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Good grief! It's a good thing I'm not a translator. I thought I was talking about Mrs. Lippo as in Frau Lippo, not Brother Lippo. Hope I didn't offend anyone. It was not my intention. Sorry!

Annie

Posted by: Annie on August 22, 2008 at 07:12 PM

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Travers Contest ALERT!!!

Steve Crist posted some come home times for the prep races in his blog, and they were uninspiring to say the least. Pyro scraped under 38 for his last three furlongs, everything else was above that. Nothing came home at anywhere near a twelve clip, and that was in 9 furlong races. There is certainly no Easy Goer or Point Given or Bernardini or even a Birdstone in this field. I think this may well be the first 2:03+ Travers in a decade.

A fast early pace seems probable, but can any of the "closers" (excuse me: "grinders") take advantage and actually show us something by coming home in racehorse time?

So here it is.

Predict the final time of this year’s Travers (give hundredths of a second please, as in, for example, my personal prediction of 2:03.21) to the greatest accuracy
and win this custom silk-screened T-Shirt in your choice of size (M, L, XL), artist-rendered in the style of a vintage Art Deco melon-crate label. Back story: I’ve got scores of these things from a semi-commercial venture that me and my bro concocted a few years ago (don’t ask, really, don’t ask, under pain of summary disqualification):

http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dw76kgh_2hh94v4f6

Here are the historical Travers times for reference (scroll to bottom of page):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travers_Stakes

I will use equibase's reported clocking for the final decision.

Good luck!

Posted by: James Mc. on August 22, 2008 at 07:45 PM

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Everyone,

The chat room will be open at 8:00 PM,EST but we won't start handicapping till probably 9 or 10 EST (depending when the majority of people show up).

go to: http://www.thoroughbredink.com

click on: Think Chat (at the top of the page). You don't need to download any software or sign up. Just enter your name and you'll be directed into the room. I had to send Steve T to the store for more cupcakes! The drink special will be "Tropical Storm"

Vicstu,
I've been rained in since Tuesday. I live in Port St. Lucie, FL, we got 10 inches of rain, and it's STILL RAINING!!!!!!
It was so bad they had to make an equipment change on the horses at Calder. They wore masks, snorkles and fins.

Posted by: laura on August 22, 2008 at 07:54 PM

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Ray Flack,

Shhhhh. Maybe we can get 6-1 on him. I like him to take the Mid-Summer Derby.

Posted by: PGM on August 22, 2008 at 08:01 PM

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Updated FORMBLOG BREEDERS' CUP DREAMING contest spreadsheet:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL5nDMm2cvAzCg
Please remember to designate your blog picks as "contest selections" or just email the picks to Formblogger@gmail.com.

Good luck this weekend!!!

Posted by: Alan on August 22, 2008 at 08:22 PM

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Alan-
Here are my picks for this weekend-
Ballerina-Sugar Swirl
Pacific Classic-Well Armed
Del Mar Handicap-Global Hunter
Pat O' Brien-Midnight Lute
Thanks! And good luck to everyone this weekend!

Posted by: Chase on August 22, 2008 at 08:37 PM

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Alan, please give me Starticus in the Arlington sprint ,and give me Tissy fit in the Delmar race--thanks Joe

Posted by: Joe F on August 22, 2008 at 09:32 PM

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For Saturday at Saratoga:

#1: Aquino, Cash Mc. Cool, Goldsville
#2: Spaniard, Florentino, Gone Astray
#3: Mahwell, Storm Play, Chosen Empire
#4: Al Amir, Tobruk, Woodrunner
#5: Intercoastal, Allegre, Rogue Victory
#6: Picou, Parc des Princes, Hammock
#7: Russian Sage, Sir Lowry, Prussian
#8: Indyanne, Informed Decision, Palanka City
#9: Thorn Song, Drum Major, Yate’s Black Cat
#10: Desert Key, J Be K, Kodiak Kowboy
#11: Colonel John, Mambo in Seattle, Court Vision
#12: Fra Lippo, Night in Tunisa, Winlocks Saint Ray

BEST BET: Thorn Song
LONGSHOT: Picou

Good Luck!!!

Posted by: Ivan on August 22, 2008 at 09:52 PM

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Congrats to Ginger Punch winning another grade 1 race. The Distaff should be awesome if Ginger Punch, Zenyatta, Hystericalady, Proud Spell, and Music Note all show up. The Personal Ensign really flatters Hystericalady because she crushed Lemon Drop Mom in the Del Cap. In retrospect, 10 furlongs is probably too far for Ginger Punch, but she once again displayed her class and heart to steal the race on the wire.
It's now time to start placing Ginger Punch in historical perspective. While the fields for the Go For Wand and Personal Ensign were relatively weak, they were grade 1 races and raised Ginger Punch's career total to 6. Ginger Punch is now in a four way tie for 5th for most grade 1 wins by a North American based horse this decade. Ginger Punch's 6 grade 1 wins equal the career totals of English Channel, Invasor, and Point Given, and place her one grade 1 win behind Ashado, Sightseek, and Lava Man (7), but FIVE behind the decade's leader, Azeri, with 11.

North American based Female Grade 1 winners since 2000:
1. Azeri- 11
2. Ashado- 7
2. Sightseek- 7
4. Ginger Punch- 6
5. Riboletta- 5
5. You- 5

Note: Ouija Board- 7

And a final word on the 2007 Breeder's Cup. The weather was terrible and the track was a sea of slop, but those races have stood up. BC Juvenile Fillies winner Indian Blessing has won 2 more grade 1 races this year as has runner-up Proud Spell. Classic winner Curlin has won 2 grade 1 races this year as well, Mile winner Kip Deville one grade 1, Ginger Punch 3 grade 1s, with Sprint champ Midnight Lute training up a storm (no pun intended)and Juvenile winner War Pass missing the grade 1 Wood by a head (Lahudood and English Channel were retired directly after the BC). And before one becomes too critical of the fields Ginger Punch has been facing, go back and look at what Sightseek, Ashado, Sky Beauty, Heavenly Prize, and Inside Information beat up on in most of their races.

Posted by: GunBow on August 22, 2008 at 09:56 PM

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The contest races are the Arlington Sprint, Del Mar Handicap, and the all-stakes pick four on Pacific Classic Day. Six in total.

Posted by: PGM on August 22, 2008 at 10:25 PM

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James Mc,

I've got faith the winner will crack 2:10 so put me down for 2:05.18.

As the old Night Ranger song went, "Motorin'..."

Good to see you posting.

***

Gorgeous Georgie,

Not only would it be beneficial for a comebacking router to prep in a sprint by accelerating their fitness level it also injects them with a nice dose of speed. Which IMO many a losing photo could be reversed in ensuing races by taking this course. From a fan perspective it stokes interest as well by gauging the readiness of a top flight router vs a sharp crew of speedballs.

Posted by: Mathieu on August 22, 2008 at 10:35 PM

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Alan,
Here are Saturday's contest picks:

Arlington: FORT PRADO
Del Mar: TRANSDUCTION GOLD

Thanks.

In the Travers I like Mambo,Colonel J, Tres Borrachos, and Macho Again.

Posted by: BillG on August 23, 2008 at 12:12 AM

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The Travers is a wide open race. You could make a strong case for just about anybody in here and I wouldn't disagree.

I'll try to make a case for Court Vision. He sorely needed the Blinkers after the Wood and got bounced about in the Derby. Off the layoff he made a late rally on the soft turf and next out got the distance and now goes turf to dirt third off the layoff at a square price. The Ieah gang could be smiling in the end.

Posted by: Kenny Mac on August 23, 2008 at 09:34 AM

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James Mc,

2:02.49 is my pick for the Travers.

Posted by: crazy rob on August 23, 2008 at 03:21 PM

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Alan,
Here are Sunday's contest picks. What a card at Del Mar tomorrow. My brain is fried.
BALLERINA: JIBBOOM
RANCHO B.: DEAREST TRICKSI
PAT OBRIEN: REBELLION
DMR MILE: WHATSTHESCRIPT
PACIFIC CL.: MAST TRACK

Thanks and good night to all.

Posted by: BillG on August 23, 2008 at 11:54 PM

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