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Breeders' Cup Thoughts, Beyers, Morvich It Is

The bigwigs at the Breeders' Cup couldn't be happier with the recent prep results. Thus far, household names like Big Brown, Music Note, and Indian Blessing have returned from their recent races unscathed, and ready to rumble on the big stage.
From a quality standpoint, this year's Breeders' Cup seems absolutely loaded. Big Brown, Curlin, and Commentator provide more than enough horsepower to guarantee a thrilling Classic. Add in some capable Europeans, and some hard-knocking handicap runners, and the race is stacked.
The Ladies' Classic is similarly blessed. Even without the participation of Kentucky Oaks and Alabama heroine Proud Spell, the Breeders' Cup starting gate should be filled with the likes of Zenyatta, Ginger Punch, Hystericalady, and Music Note. That's kid in a candy shop good.
Yep. From the looks of things, this Breeders' Cup should turn out to be something special.

It should.

Of course, all silver linings have clouds, or something like that. The clouds circling over Santa Anita are actually underfoot. All of the star power, all of the thrilling moments that racing fans were treated to in 2008 will be lessened somewhat if the synthetic main track keeps away horses like Curlin, Commentator, and other top runners that don't want to gamble on the unknown.

This has been the racing fan's major worry since the Breeders' Cup announced they would be setting up shop at Santa Anita in both 2008 and 2009. Would we be deprived of mouth-watering matchups like Big Brown vs. Curlin vs. Commentator in a battle royale with Horse of the Year honors on the line? Hopefully, we'll get to see that clash of racing's titans, but don't be surprised if it doesn't materialize.
Steve Asmussen and Nick Zito, the trainers of Curlin and Commentator respectively, have publicly voiced their disapproval of artificial racing surfaces. If Curlin successfully defends his Jockey Club Gold Cup title this weekend at Belmont, he'll become racing's all-time money-earner. Should Asmussen and company risk their horse's legacy by running on a foreign surface? Zito has nursed Commentator through several injury-riddled campaigns. Should he tinker with the veteran now that he has him in tip-top shape?
On the other side of the coin, however, aren't true champions crowned by overcoming adversity? The best teams win on the road when they don't have the homefield advantage. If Asmussen and Zito fail to send their horses West, should Curlin and Commentator lose some of their luster in the eyes of Eclipse voters?
Perhaps, the finger shouldn't be pointed at the horsemen. The obvious culprit is the Breeders' Cup itself. Certainly, they can be accused of embracing synthetic surfaces when it was obvious that many horsemen were skeptical.
When you ask any sports fan about throroughbred racing, they're going to spout out the names of Curlin and Big Brown. A Breeders' Cup matchup, complete with all the hype from their fussin' and feudin' connections, could take their names to Ali-Frazier territory.

Hyphenated.

Add in Commentator as the Ken Norton capable of knocking either one of the big names out, and this year's Classic would more than certainly live up to its name.

I'm hoping that it happens, but no matter who's at fault, it's pretty worrisome that we have to fret about whether it does take place, right?

Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

*Massachusetts (Suf): Commentator (N. Zito/J. Velazquez) - 110

*Gallant Bloom (Bel): Indian Blessing (B. Baffert/C. Nakatani) - 109
*Gold Cup (AsD): Monsoon Rain (M. Drexler/C. Marquez) - 105
*James B. Moseley Sprint (Suf): Real Estate (B. Levine/J. Velazquez) - 105
*Super Derby (LaD): My Pal Charlie (A. Stall Jr./C. Bourque) - 103

*Point Given (Mth): Delosvientos (G. Iadisernia/E. Castro) - 98
*Lake Erie (PID): Andiamo (W. Downing/R. Allen Jr) - 97
*Drumtop (Suf): Thunders Dove (N. Zito/J. Velazquez) - 97
*Overskate (WO): Not Bourbon (R. Attfield/J. Jones) - 96
*Missile Belle (Bel): Informed Decision (J. Sheppard/C. Nakatani) - 95
*New Mexico State Fair (Alb): Nosir (J. Guerra/V. Guerra) - 95
*Deputed Testamony (Lrl): Wonder Mon (G. Capuano/T. Dunkelberger) - 95
*Ralph M. Hinds Invitational (Fpx): Booyah (J. Fanning/J. Talamo) - 94
*Walking in Da Sun (Del): Libor Lady (M. Pino/L. Garcia) - 94
*Fitz Dixon Cotillion (Pha): Seattle Smooth (A. Dutrow/J. Lezcano) - 94
*Miss America (GG): Wild Promises (G. Gilchrist/D. Lopez) - 94
*Robert R. Hilton Memorial (CT): Confucius Say (G. Yetsook/R. Soodeen) - 93
*Prairie Meadows Derby (PrM): Shadowbdancing (T. Gore/R. Meier) - 93
*Unbridled (LaD): Steve's Double (R. Werner/R. Albarado) - 93
*Eleven North (Mth): Way With Words (M. Eppler/E. Castro) - 93
*Pomona Derby (Fpx): Bingham (J. Mullins/A. Quinonez) - 92
*Deputy Bar and Grill Express (Hst): B R Remark (B. Giesbrecht/K. Nicholls) - 92
*The Vid (Crc): Cenzontle (K. Ziadie/A. Smith) - 91
*John Henry (AP): Dynaman (D. Miller/C. Silva) - 91
*Plagiarize (Crc): It's a Bird (M. Wolfson/J. Bridgmohan) - 90
*Jack Betta Be Rite (Bel): Meriwether Jessica (L. Rice/J. Velazquez) - 90 (*Lost Without You finished first, but was disqualified to second)
*Governor's Cup (Fpx): Northern Soldier (B. Koriner/A. Gryder) - 90

*Franklin-Simpson (KD): Demarcation (P. McGee/H. Theriot II) - 89
*Robert O'Malley Memorial (Suf): Hold On Smokey (D. Kielty/J. Lopez) - 88
*River Cities (LaD): Tortuga Flats (R. Irwin/K. LeBlanc) - 88
*Sir Winston Churchill (Hst): Fuhrever Dancing (T. Jordan/F. Perez) - 87
*Millard Harrell Memorial (CT): Ghostly Thunder (G. Capuano/T. Dunkelberger) - 87
*Lake Michigan (AP): Stormy Ballad (A. Granitz/J. Alvarado) - 87
*Nancy A. Vanier Illinois Owners (AP): You Dancing Devil (N. Pessin/J. Graham) - 87
*Lincroft (Mth): Hey Chub (K. DeMasi/C. Marquez Jr.) - 86
*Las Madrinas (Fpx): Lemon Chiffon (S. McCarthy/D. Flores) - 86
*Farer Belle Lee (Pnl): Valley Loot (R. Allen/F. Mata) - 86
*Prairie Meadows Oaks (PrM): Euphony (D. Von Hemel/Q. Hamilton) - 85
*Tiznow (LaD): Jonesboro (R. Morse/R. Albarado) - 85
*Weekend Delight (TP): Vote Early (S. Margolis/J. Thorwarth) - 85
*British Columbia Derby (Hst): Krazy Koffee (C. Krasner/D. Wilson) - 84
*Statuette (Bel): Miss Challenge (G. Weaver/E. Prado) - 84
*Frontier (Pnl): Rockem Sockem (S. Sowle/M. Doser) - 84
*Roger Van Hoozer Memorial (CT): Julie B (G. Yetsook/A. Bocachica) - 83
*Chick Lang Jr. Memorial (Ret): Lee's Spirit (R. Schultz/B. Walker Jr.) - 83
*Delta Colleen (Hst): Against the Sky (C. MacPherson/F. Fuentes) - 82
*Bangles and Beads (Fpx): Steelin' (R. DeLeon/M. Garcia) - 82
*Gateway to Glory (Fpx): Charlie's Moment (W. Solis/J. Rosario) - 80
*Jersey Girl (Mth): Paradise Tonight (J. Pierce Jr./E. Castro) - 80
*Matron (AsD): Tanika (B. Brown/S. Heiler) - 80
*Dusty Screen (PID): Terriffico (H. Miller Jr./W. Martinez) - 80

*Sunday Silence (LaD): City Style (C. Asmussen/T. McNeil) - 79
*Flaming Page (WO): Lickety Lemon (M. Casse/C. Sutherland) - 79
*Happy Ticket (LaD): Abbott Hall (H. Wiggins/R. Albarado) - 78
*Bertram F. Bongard (Bel): Trinity Magic (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan) - 77
*CTBA Marian (Fpx): Gambler's Justice (B. Spawr/M. Pedroza) - 75
*Derby Consolation (Hst): Kwik (T. Cloutier/D. Wilson) - 75
*British Columbia Oaks (Hst): Blue Sky Holiday (J. Snow/C. Hoverson) - 74
*Joseph A. Gimma (Bel): Sneakin Up (J. Pierce Jr./C. Marquez Jr.) - 74

*Black Swan (Fpx): Dash Dot Dash (V. Cerin/M. Pedroza) - 67
*George Maloof Futurity (Alb): Brown Boy (J. Gonzalez Jr./A. Cruz) - 65
*New Mexico State Fair Thoroughbred Derby (Alb): Move Moves (J. Claridge/D. Sterling) - 65

*Dessie and Fern Sawyer Futurity (Alb): Winter Mist (M. Guinn/B. Theriot) - 59

*Sickle's Image (Pnl): Ittybittymeadow (R. Gorham/R. Barrios) - 48
*Winnipeg Futurity (AsD): Prayforthesoldiers (A. Sayler/D. Lopez) - 48

*Here are the lifetime past performances for the highest and lowest Beyer stakes performers of the past week:

Download Commentetc..pdf

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Our HandiGambling 103 race will be Wednesday's Grade 3 Morvich Handicap at Oak Tree. Here are the past performances for anyone that would like to participate:

Download Morvich.pdf

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Be back tomorrow to answer a ton of questions and comments. Wednesday, we'll talk about the HandiGambling excercise as well as a Past Champion retrospective.

Take it easy,

Dan

p.s.

While I have no problem with healthy debate, the whole Tinky-Rick thing has gotten a bit out of control. Let's move on now. Please. I appreciate it.

Posted by dan_illman on September 22, 2008 | Permalink

Keywords:

Comments

Race 2

HONOR YOUR WAGER is making his debut for a new barn after a very nice run at a higher level. Trainer is 23% on first claim, team hits at 35% at SA and works and last two runs on synthetics were a first and a close up third. DAY OF THE SOUTH showed speed in his first off of the layoff, expect a big improvement in his second run. Has the live work set and is running for a new barn which hits at 50% in first claim and the team is a perfect 2/2 with a $9.70 ROI. SANDITA is making his first run for a new barn after running his best race. Bejarano is back aboard and Spawr hits 23% of his first claims.

Honor Your Wager
Day of the South
Sandita

Dr. Derango: LARDOG was reclaimed by Rafael Becerra. I have used reclaims as an angle for years. Trainer hits at 17% on first claims, horse is fresh with a good book of works and he has won at higher levels. Have no clue as to how the rail will play, but he should be double digit odds.

Race 3

VITAL FORCE is taking a significant class drop, has a very fast 1:12 work over the new track and keeps Rosario. Trainer (Dan Who?) is at 22% for MCL’s. QUITE THE MAN is an interesting runner, has had all sorts of physical problems but his last says he may be over them. Runs for a very good team in Carla Gaines and Tyler Baze. An improvement on last will mean a runaway victory. ROYAL SEAL is a Gallagher runner who dropped to MCL-25 last out and missed by a ½ in a fast closing finish.

Vital Force
Quite the Man
Royal Seal

Dr. Derango: Yes, the Unusual Heat, UNUSUAL SMOKE. He is dropping from straight maidens to MCL-25, both runs were enough to make him competitive here, and Dollase is at 25% on maiden claimers.

Race 4

The first downhill race! If these don’t make you crazy you are one cool cat. And this is a very competitive race. Although EUROGLIDE has never run the course he has the running style to be successful first out. Eurton and Nakatani are one of those J/T combinations that are off the charts – 38% for Santa Anita. MT. ORIENT has three runs on the downhill and three ITM finishes. Has the live work set and a 26% team. KEWEN has run the downhill 9 times and finished in the money in 7 of those races, all at a higher class.

Euroglide
Mt. Orient
Kewen

Dr. Derango: SUPER HARMONY has no runs on the downhill but his mile turf races suggest this could be an ideal pot for him. Should be one of the longest shots on the board.

Race 5

A big class drop for STAND TALL, from an OC-40 to a CLM-25. He is a very consistent runner who should benefit greatly from the class drop. Love the jock switch to Quinonez (team wins at 22%), and trainer hits at 34% on turf to synthetic. HELD UP is another taking a class drop and his last win was at this distance and level. Gets a 7 pound weight bust from Arambula. Ted West has an incredible 41% win rate on the route to sprint angle. STORM MACHINE is one who is always around the lead, gets a 32% team in Sadler and Gomez and last two were fast closing efforts in a higher class level.

Stand Tall
Held Up
Storm Machine

Dr. Derango: RED ALERT! Take a look at his works at Santa Anita; think he will like the track?

Race 6

Another tough race to handicap. CHEROKEE ARTIST is making his turf debut after running in some tough races, including a nice place to Smooth Air in the Ohio Derby. Trainer does hit at 31% for synth to turf, and 22% on turf. If he takes to the grass his class should make him an easy winner. YANKEE BAY is 7/10 in the money on grass and his last three races were his best efforts. YANKEE BAY has three nice races against better. FUNNY ME seems on the improve and is one that should appreciate the added distance.

Cherokee Artist
Yankee Bay
Funny Me

Dr. Derango: Never take a maiden winner in their first attempt against other winners right? Just another reason to judge me not mentally competent… RUMBA ALONG has never finished worse than 3 ¾ lengths behind the winner (and that was Sanquine).

Race 7

Two screamin bullets and a best BSF last out for STAR NICHOLAS, I think this could be show time – and he always ends up at higher odds than he should be. It is now September 2008, which would make a Tiznow born in March 2005 3 ½, VULCAN is that runner and look at his last two races! PEARL FISHER just broke his maiden at Del Mar, but this will be his second off the layoff and he could improve in leaps and bounds.

Star Nicholas
Vulcan
Pearl Fisher

Dr. Derango: I have been waiting for MISSISSIPPIAN to hit the main track since he first got here, watching big work after big work on the synthetic surface. Expect 30-40/1 on him.

Race 8

The main event, The Grade III Morvich on the downhill. GET FUNKY is a perfect 2 for 2 on the course and has raced against The Tin Man, Out of Control, El Roblar, After Market – in other words the varsity. Works are very good, he has won three out of his last four and the team is 21%, we have lift off! TROPIC STORM has one run on the downhill a very good second in a race won in a 1:11/2!!! He has very impressive works since coming back from Emerald Downs and a 29% team. TEN MEROPA won the only downhill he ran in, the G3 Baldwin. Can’t ignore someone who has won before here.

Get Funky
Tropic Storm
Ten Meropa

Dr. Derango: ONE UNION was closing fast on Get Funky in his last turf sprint and just missed in the try before that. He definitely has the running style to win on the downhill. Could be at VERY generous odds.

Race 9

This is a race that could easily end up with an off the charts pay, almost no one that is a straight throw out. CAJUN GENT almost caught Two Step Salsa in his only run. Now back from the layoff he throws a prototypical live work set. Picks up Gomez and could run away and hide. I have no clue as to why CONCERTO’S THUNDER is still a maiden, this one could do the trick (famous last words). EISENHEIN threw an 89 and an 87 BSF in his two races and a 1:11 work at SA to boot. Very live and very dangerous.

Cajun Gent
Concerto’s Thunder
Eisenheim

Dr. Derango: FIERY TRIPPI has scorched the track in the morning, and could finally hold together in the afternoon

Posted by: Steve T. on September 22, 2008 at 06:41 PM

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annie,

Hey, Dan didn't deny it, did he.

Good luck on the Handigambling and the rest of the Contest this weekend.

Thanks,

Posted by: chicago gerry on September 22, 2008 at 06:49 PM

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Been catching up on various posts and finding it all fascinating entertainment. Re the latest Tinky kerfuffle, find it interesting that what I surmised from his(her) initial post was a mildly disguised reproof of our friends the Zayats for taking horses from a (and this is the inference) from a 'clean' trainer to a previously 'not so clean' one. Note that there is no allegation of current misbehavior, but the implication is there for those that follow the line of logic. Haven't read all the posts back and forth, but found it interesting that no one reacted to that.
On the other hand, I found Sobhy's version of the transaction perfectly reasonable. One could hardly fault them for deploying their horses as they see fit. And can't agree more that they need to define success by their own light. Lots of starts, lots of wins, high-profile races, long careers, short careers leading to breeding jackpots; lots of possible motivations in the racing business and some are obviously in opposition. So they need to do whatever it takes to reach the goals they're setting for themselves.
Someone mentioned Overbrook and I thought with sadness of the lost potential of the horses that fell by the wayside in their drive to establish a stud prospect. But they ended up with Storm Cat, so who's to say they weren't successful?
I think Steve T and Larryk pretty much summed up the quirks of the 6.5 downhill turf sprints; I would add these.
Since the first turn is to the left, the rail slot is really the far outside at the outset.
The initial running takes most of the grade so sprinter speed is a little neutralized.
Horses( not limited to sprinters) that have shown a turn of foot - a real burst - can get into contention from pretty far back starting from the crossover. Things being relatively equal I choose them over horses that make big sweeping runs to win turf races elsewhere.
Agile horses really benefit from the demands of this layout as do jockeys that can think on their (horse's) feet.
Also jockeys that finish strongly are a plus (don't know who I would nominate nowadays if I step into the wayback machine I see Eddie D, Toro and Pincay winning way more than their share of these) Maybe Bejarano and Rosario. Cut Trevor some slack calling these races, the lead seems to change hands a lot in the last 16th.
Re the steroid question -- I don't think I subscribe to the theory that steroids have as much impact on the mental state of horses as much as the overall physical impact. I think Big Brown is just a bossy horse in general and once he gets to run he loses his manners. More to the point is the use of steroids to boost overall physical condition, especially appetite (drawing on vet use in dogs and cats) and how the effects of hard races will now have to be dealt with differently. Horses that don't eat lose condition fast. As far as building actual muscle mass and strength, it seems that sprinters (fast twitch muscle) would have benefitted the most.
Speaking of sprinters -- very sorry to see Barbecue Eddie out of the picture - I expected to see him take down one of the major sprint stakes. Don't know what to make of Hewitts -- he has often worked really fast but what happened in his last race? I bet him blind on raw talent in the handicapping contest, didn't see the race but the chart doesn't provide any excuse. Cayman, Tony Kelso and Chicago Gerry -- you picked him too, what did you see?

Really excited about the opening of Oak Tree -- my only watch horse that's running is Great Siege, can't wait to see how he looks. Being involuntarily 'between jobs' I'm free to devote some serious time (though not much $$) to racing. I remember that a while back someone asked about morning works at Santa Anita and I meant to answer then. Works are open, park at Gate 8 (off Baldwin) short walk to Clocker's Corner. Don't expect any help identifying who you're seeing though (nothing like the PA at Saratoga, for instance) Saddle towels are by trainer, unless they choose not to!) and hanging out by the gap you will hear riders of horses going out for official clocking name them and their distances, but all the rest is rumor, blind luck and surmise. I can't wait! I will be going out when I can -- especially to check out the Euro shippers. One big drawback for them will be the change in climate. In the past, many have arrived with their winter coats growing in and have suffered for it. Temperature here is still in the 80's, especially in the San Gabriel Valley.

On a completely different note, those that were holding their breath hoping to see Perfect Drift safely retired can relax. I found Papa Mandella's quote wise and refreshing.
"We were thinking of taking one more shot. We thought it over and that’s generally the time you should stop."

I guess that should apply to me to -- good luck and safe trips all.

Posted by: nancyb on September 22, 2008 at 06:50 PM

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Annie,

If there is one thing we got it is oak trees. Desert?? Pshaw! Well maybe Encino...

The Oak Tree got started in 1969 when Del Mar relinquished their fall race dates and Clement Hirsch formed Oak Tree Racing and made a deal with Santa Anita to hold their meet there.

Billg,

I think In Summation is a good fit and depending on whether he needs to cough up $180K should be there. I really think Intangaroo will stay on the filly side, especially if IB goes to the Sprint (which I think she should). Haven't heard a peep about Rockerfeller in a while. Think Rebellion is overmatched - but is a play if Fabulous Strike and Bustin Stones stay home.

Posted by: Steve T. on September 22, 2008 at 06:58 PM

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What a moron! Here is the first section of the Santa Anita card:

SANTA ANITA – Wednesday (09-24-2008)

Honey, we’re home! No more barbecued turkey legs, squirt gun races or deep fried burgers, guess we will have to make do with horse races and green hot dogs. I wouldn’t get too worked up over the new surface, or start making too quick an assessment about who can/can’t get over it. Use the force young Skywalker…

Race 1

The Daughters of Nureyev Stakes – Unusual Heat, Atticus and Momentum are all represented here. COSTA MARTA is the logical choice here based on her last run. She keeps Bejarano, and I like her last work (although she has not worked at SA). If she runs back to her last or improves it is probably all over. ONE PERFECT CARAT (a Pleasantly Perfect) has burned me twice, but both races had trouble. I wish she was going a route but is very capable. RUNWAY STARLET had a deceptively good first run at Fairplex and is eligible to make a quantum leap on the new surface.

Costa Marta
One Perfect Carat
Runway Starlet

Dr. Derango: What, did you think I was locked up in a mental ward someplace? Hey it was only for observation. All right, might as well start with the sister of Lethal Heat, HEATOLOGY. I was not impressed with her first run, but she could up and freak in her second try at healthy odds. I also wouldn’t overlook my girlfriend CRAZY TRICIA who should like the new surface as well.

Posted by: Steve T. on September 22, 2008 at 07:00 PM

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larryk

Here is the article stating that Douglas will ride at SA this fall:

Douglas to ride at Oak Tree meet

Rene Douglas, the leading rider at the current Arlington Park meeting, will ride at the Oak Tree at Santa Anita meeting, effective Wednesday, according to his new agent, Tom Knust.

Douglas has been the dominant rider at Arlington Park this summer. Through Monday, he had a 34-race lead in the jockey standings. Douglas was a regular rider in Southern California in the late 1990s and earlier this decade.

"He thinks California is the place to be," Knust said. "He'll be here through the winter."

Posted by: Steve T. on September 22, 2008 at 07:11 PM

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Wow, Uncle Steve posting FIVE minutes after new thread lifts off. A little excited about the Oak tree meet are we?

Posted by: cayman01 on September 22, 2008 at 07:41 PM

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The Morvich Handicap Breakdown

Here is my breakdown for the HandiGambling race. I probably won't post my wagers until just before the race because there are some odds dependent possibilities.

1 REBELLION – last seven races ran very consistent BSF’s ranging from 92 to 99. Is 2/2 in turf sprints, and has a real “A” team in Graham Motion and Rafael Bejarano. Unfortunately he is in the 1 post, which historically has been death on the downhill. He certainly has the stats to win and could be one of those who overcomes the post. I just think he will be covered coming onto the main track.

2 SIREN LURE – another with first rate stats including a Grade 1 win. He has 6 runs on the downhill and he won half of them. My issue with this one is that his last win was over two years ago (August 2006) and his last race was pathetic. Tough place to make your debut after a layoff. I can’t back him until he shows some form again.

3 SOUL CITY SLEW – runs much better on the main track and this is a tough lot to throw into. His last two downhill races were clunkers. Trainer and jockey stats are low average and works are middle of the road.

4 GET FUNKY – is a perfect 2 for 2 on the downhill, 9 of his last 11 races were in graded stakes running with the varsity (The Tin Man, El Roblar, Out of Control, After Market, Idiot Proof). He beat Idiot Proof in his last, so there is no doubt about his speed. The Pick.

5 TEN MEROPA – a winner in his only downhill race, handily beating D. Double You and Sky Cape. Main track run was blah. You just can’t discount one who won his only race on the course. Tyler Baze and Mullins are a live team at 27%. Definitely one to consider.

6 EASY ON THE EYE – has two 5F turf sprints since his arrival from New Zealand, both quality starts where it looked like he wanted more distance. Not a throw out at all, but probably a solid under. Nakatani and Knapp are 33% at the track.

7 FIVE STAR THIEF – good news he has new connections in Mike Mitchell and Joel Rosario (25% as a team), bad news is his last win was a year ago and a poor finish in his only turf sprint. He does have nice recent works, and if there were ever two who could raise the dead it is Rosario and Mitchell, but…

8 ONE UNION – has never been in a downhill race, but was getting to Get Funky in a 6F turf sprint at Hollywood. Has the look of a long shot and runs for the dynamic duo of Espinoza and Mandella. Should have very decent odds and if you feel like taking a stab at this race he is probably the best choice.

9 CALIFORNIA FLAG – his last three races were his best three races, including two turf sprint wins. His only downhill run was a spin, crash and burn in the maiden ranks. He is definitely improving, but these are real good and he will be hard pressed to hang with them down the stretch.

10 TROPIC STORM – was the beaten favorite in the Longacres, which at a mile was just over his range. His one run in the downhill is notable because is was run in 1:11/2 (the record is 1:11 flat). That is blistering fast and he missed by a length. His last to works were very, very good and the team is 29% for the year – remarkable because the jock is 10% and the trainer 19%. ZCould well be fast enough to win. Second choice.

11 Matto Mondo – is making his North American debut after a nice series of Group 1 races in Chile (he was the favorite in every race he ran there). Works are good since arriving, he had a win and a place in turf sprints in Chile, but this is much more than he has ever faced.

12 – DESERT CODE – owns a 3 for 4 record on the course, including the 2007 Grade 3 Baldwin. The outside post is not a disadvantage, rather it is a plus. What holds me back is that Gomez and Hofmans are a 0% team and all of the trainer stats are very low. There is always one in a race you just aren’t sure about, and this one is mine.

PICKS

1 – Get Funky
2 – Tropic Storm
3 – Ten Meropa
4 – One Union
5 - Rebellion

Posted by: Steve T. on September 22, 2008 at 08:11 PM

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Suffolk Downs once again this year did BIG NUMBERS for MassCap Day. 17,712 Paid $5 to see a very talented horse dominate. But this crowd wasn't drawn solely on Commentator's star-power; he's not exactly a name the once-a-year fan would recognize; No, this crowd came for the "EVENT" of The MassCap, neat extras like The "All-Star Buglers"(providing four part harmonies for horseracing classics like "Bohemian Rhapsody" before the first race!)& the Free MassCap Hat.
New England still has a love of horseracing, if the race is given proper notice beforehand.
Hopefully the budget crisis in Massachusetts will finally force Sal DeMasi to allow a FAIR debate on gaming in the state, bringing Video Gaming to Suffolk. Suffolk ownership has bought Wonderland Greyhound next door, creating a perfect large Dining/Gaming/Racing area.
On another note, A TVG bet programming snafu prevented ANY TVG bettors from making Exacta Wagers on the MassCap!

Posted by: BombsAwayBob Grant on September 22, 2008 at 08:59 PM

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NEW CONDITIONS?

Has anyone looked through the condition book at Keeneland this fall? Here is one I've not seen before--doesn't mean it hasn't happened but first time I've seen it:

Wednesday 10/17
8th Race "The Dromoland"
Allowance--7 Furlongs
Purse $57,000
For 3 year-olds and upwards which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter, on a
SYNTHETIC SURFACE
in North America.

Has anyone else seen these conditions which specifically allow for synthetic surface past performance. One more step in the evolution of racing and the eventual paradigm shift which will one day see synthetic as simply another variable instead of a issue of contention.
______________________________

Dan, here's my read on this week's HandiGambling race 103 the Grade III Morvich Hdcp:

#6 Easy On The Eye (Aus)
This race looks like it sets up for a closer and I'll take a big price on this Knapp trained turf sprinter who got a useful work on the grass last week and seems to have acclimated himself well to the new surroundings. Improving BSFs and Delta Strm came back and flattered.
#4 Get Funky
Respect the probable chalk.
#12Desert Code
Has won on this course, drops from G1, and has won off similar layoff.

Posted by: meadowlake59 on September 22, 2008 at 09:10 PM

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Handigambling 103:

The Morvich down the Hill:

Won't get a chance to look at this gain til after the race so I'm cramming tonight. Thanks Dan for the PP.

1:REBELLION: Solid horse draws a really tough post with all the speed coming over on him from the outside. Interesting that Bejarano chooses him over local connections. Will be flying late with his usual A+ effort.
bejarano will really have to work out a trip here.

2:SIREN LURE: maybe the break will help, but he looked like a shadow of his former self his last couple tries.Will try to stalk, but might get pinched with speed coming over from outside.Been down the hill with success which helps, but he'll have to beat me here.

3:SOUL CITY SLEW:Another looking to come late, but looks a little light in the BSF's compared to rest. Pass.

4:GET FUNKY: Normally I'd be all over this horse, but it's Sadler and we all know about the steroid issues. If Uncle Steve is right he's in withdrawal right now which makes me want to take a pass.
Look at him on the track. If he looks right jump all over him. He'll get a nice position just behind the speed
and should be right there at the wire.

5:TEN MEROPA: Pretty ambitious
spot for lightly raced three year old. Has a win down the hill which is a big plus.Two really nice works prepping for this. Could figure at high price.

6:EASY ON THE EYE:Aussie!Aussie!Aussie! Oi!Oi! Oi!
Wiil walk out of the gate looking for Vegemite and start running when he doesn't see any.Will be coming late.Another who's eyes might be a bit big for his head. Maybe a spot underneath at a price.

7:FIVE STAR THIEF:Nope. No way, no how. Mitchell or no Mitchell, this horse will not be competitive (famous last words). Has not hit the board this year. Will the wizard work his magic? Not without his juice he won't. Pass.

8:ONE UNION: Crafty vet trainer and jockey should be competitive here with stalking trip.Should fight for the garden spot with Get Funky.Not being down the hill counts against.

9:CALIFORNIA FLAG: Speed of the speed will set the pace and go as far as he can....
which could be a ways. Freaked in the lane on only trip down the hill which probably cost him the win.Could get really brave out front. Lots to like here at a price.

10:TROPIC STORM: vulnerable favorite here who had a decent downhill a year ago, but has managed to cough up the lead in two of his last three.Should follow and press California Flag right down the hill. Maybe the turnback in distance will be the key here.

11:MATTO MONDO: Lots of questions here. Solid works but I think Mandella is looking for something down the road with this one.But then again stranger things have happened.

12:DESERT CODE:Another vulnerable favorite here.Doesn't like to pass horses and I don't see him getting the lead here. Not at his best off the layoff either.Switch to Gomez a big plus. Three for four down the hill a bigger plus. Good enough to win when on his game but will he be?

The Play: C. Flag and Talamo are the key here. How fast he flies down the hill will determine who's standing at the finish line. A sub 44 opening half will fry him and the rest of the speed, and the closers will rule.An opening half just under 45 and I think he wires the field. His Beyer's are a little light but he can carry his speed under a mile and is an improving horse. will play against Get Funky on most tickets.

$15 WPS 9 $45
$1 EX 9/1,5,10,12 $4
$1 TRI 9/1,5,10,12/1,5,6,8,10,12 $20
$1 TRI 4/ 1,5,10,12/1,5,8,10,12 $16
$1 TRI 1,5/1,4,5/1,4,5,8 $8
.10 SUPER 1,4,9/1,4,5,9/1,4,5,9,10/1,4,5,9,10 $5.40
.10 super 5/1/4,8,10,12/4,8,9,10,12 $1.60

Posted by: cayman01 on September 22, 2008 at 09:58 PM

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Tinky and Rick,

There is absolutely no bad blood between my Dad and the Zayat squad...just to put that to rest.

-Riley

Posted by: Riley on September 22, 2008 at 10:04 PM

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Annie,

I found an answer to your question on Wikipedia.

"In 1968, the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club the operators of Del Mar Racetrack in Del Mar, California decided to inform California racing authorities that they did not intend to use the fall dates they were granted and to instead race only a summer meet. Clement L. Hirsch, a leading horse trainer, and veterinarian Dr. Jack Robbins, as well as other horsemen and fans were deeply opposed to the move which had the effect of ending live racing in Southern California from September 1 to November 1.

Hirsch, Robbins, and several others decided to do something and formed the Oak Tree Racing Association. Dr. Jack Robbins, was a founding Director and became its President. The Association decided against purchasing a racetrack or constructing a new one. Instead they rented Santa Anita Park for the first time in 1969 and they remain there to this day. Generally run in September/October, Oak Tree is considered to be one of the finest race meetings in the country and is renowned for excellent turf racing.

The track [Oak Tree] conducts many races that lead up to the [Breeders' Cup] World Thoroughbred Championships. Oak Tree has held the Breeders' Cup in 1986, 1993, 2003 and will host the 25th running of the Breeders' Cup World Championships at Santa Anita Park on October 24-25, 2008."

Of course, Steve T. or any other SoCal-based bloggers can fill in any gaps.

Posted by: PGM on September 22, 2008 at 10:04 PM

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steve t.,

Would normally appreciate the chat room this weekend especially, but have to attend to something unexpected, that will preclude. I would also appreciate you hosting a chat room prior to the BC if you are thinking about that.

Alan,
Contest pick for the Morvich H. is Rebellion.

Dan,

Handigambling:
$4 Trifecta Box 1,4,8,10
(1. Rebellion, 4. Get Funky, 8. One Union, and 10. Tropic Storm)
$2.00 Win 1 Rebellion

larryk,

I'm putting this in now because I my not get back before the weekend. My contest advice to you is to go into prevent mode. Think of it as a defensive strategy utilized by the Baltimore Colts, the Louisville Cardinals or the Kentucky Wildcats. You are almost there. Don't get crazy. Protect your lead by playing it safe. Your going to hard to catch. Don't get nervous just because there is a target on your back and all the Formbloggers (myself excluded, of course), who will be out to get you. Play it safe. You've got it made in the shade.

Thanks,

Posted by: chicago gerry on September 22, 2008 at 10:24 PM

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You folks are very friendly and supportive (except for Tinky!). I was wondering if you could help me out with my posts. No matter how hard I try, they come out as the "blob on the blog". How do you 1) skip a space,and 2) align words and numbers so that they look neat. Thanks.

Posted by: ktalbany on September 22, 2008 at 10:37 PM

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nancyb;

Nice to see you here again. Your tone is so very much appreciated, as is your knowledge and opinions.

Dan;

I already downloaded Wednesday's card for Oak Tree, but thank you for posting the past performances. I suspect it is of benefit for many.

ktalbany;

Try crafting your posting in Word (or another format) and then copying it, and pasting it in the comment section. I do it when I post my picks as a way of archiving my selections in my own file.

Good night, good people!☺
Van Savant

Posted by: Van Savant on September 22, 2008 at 11:02 PM

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Meadowlake,

This is only new with respect to synthetic surfaces, but I did see (when handicapping Arlington) a N1T allowance used in the PPs. As in, "a horse winning a race other than....or a turf race."

Once again, the best advice is "read the header carefully" with any allowance or AOC race.

Posted by: PGM on September 22, 2008 at 11:22 PM

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Cayman,

Gee did it show?? Fairplex is my down time, and by the end of the meet I am chomping at the bit. Actually frothing at the mouth is closer.

ktalbany,

Unfortunately FormBlog uses caveman software that does not allow any formatting - thus no bold, italic, color, justification, tabs, tables or indents. The "other" blog however has most of these features - guess the boss gets the goods.

Posted by: Steve T. on September 22, 2008 at 11:46 PM

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Steve T...Rockefeller has been on vacation since winning at Monmouth on Haskell Day (8/3). He's running on Saturday in the Vosburgh (against Fabulous Strike and Lucky Island, no Bustin Stones or Abraaj).

Posted by: Greg on September 22, 2008 at 11:59 PM

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On Sunday, closing day at Arlington Park, another meet-up was scheduled. This time, I met with poster Chicago Gerry. We met only for a couple hours (due to schedule commitments) and discussed a number of topics, as well as the day’s cards from Arlington Park and Belmont Park.

We discussed Thoroughbred Ink, FormBlog matters, successful handicapping strategies, and why a future meet-up during Hawthorne would be at a downtown Chicago OTB as small talk. Here’s a bullet point recap.

--Having a chat on the eve of the Saturday September 27, Goodwood/Jockey Club Gold Cup Day (locally, it’s also Hawthorne Gold Cup Day, and that race usually sends a longshot to the BC Classic)
is a smart idea.

--How to handle the Tinky-Calvin/Laura/etc feuds. I’ll let Dan’s plea at the end of the Sept. 22 entry be my status on it.

--Since Hawthorne is located in a questionable suburb of Chicago, and a bit far away for both Chi. Gerry and I (especially him), it’s better if we played those cards (if we were together) from Downtown. Maybe if I do future meet-ups with Chi. Gerry or Midwest Ed or other Chicagoland FormBloggers during the autumn/winter, it would be downtown over Hawthorne. It seems more centrally located to all three of us.

On to actual handicapping. Prior to his arrival, I caught a Coa-ridden longshot in the statebred juvenile stakes at Belmont Park, courtesy of a free AP closing day voucher. Chi. Gerry’s quick and dirty approach to the Arlington races (which I largely avoided) was astounding. It may be age (double mine) and experience (I’m a relative newbie to Arlington/Hawthorne on a full-time basis), but, damn, those Express Lane selections work. Although small, he profited from W/P/S (in various forms) selections, and then used them to set up a better play later in our day.

Meanwhile, I decided to get involved on races I had formerly avoided, and most of my selections tanked. I definitely will want to sit with him again for a primer on playing claiming races and undercard races in Chicago.

Lesson One: Sign up for “A Primer to Chicago Claimers” when Chi. Gerry is teaching it next term.

Lesson Two: If you avoided a race, there’s probably a good reason. Patience, Patience, Patience.

More of my time, money, and attention were at Belmont Park. I constructed a 5X2X2 one-dollar pick three linking races seven through nine on the card. I felt the seventh (Statuette S.) was a wide-open race where any of five could win, the middle leg was an AOC turf-sprint where one of two could take it. And the last one (Gimma Stakes) , I liked Akilina but went two deep for insurance. The pick three started well (5-1 winner in the Statuette, a 5-2 winner in the turf sprint) but died in the last leg. Had I bet the double, however, it would have erased the bitter taste of the dead triple.

Lesson Three: If you’re going to be a multi-race player, don’t be afraid to take the easy double.

In the Gimma Stakes, Chicago Gerry constructed a clever 4x3 exacta box taking the two horses I was alive to in my pick three at Belmont, along with two more. As my pick three died, his exacta hit at a nearly three-fold return. He had to leave (and did so with a positive net courtesy of his nice table-setting wagers), but sitting and capping with him was equal parts fun and revealing. I better hope if I play a local handicapping contest (a goal in 2009), that he is playing with me and not against me.

And even though I lost some cash, I'd definitely do another card with him. There were times we got talking and we completely forgot there was a race going on. You could discuss anything from the late double at Arlington to Zipper manufacturing and have a ball.

As Chicago Gerry left, I settled back into a maiden special weight I liked and the day’s feature, the Vanier Stakes. My double linking the two races returned ziltch, but Big Push (I liked him but wanted a price) went off as an overlay and I pounced on him. He won by half a dozen. In the end I, unlike Chicago Gerry, finished with a negative net. Then again, I was trying to turn a positive net three times in a row at Arlington playing three different tracks (Arlington, Suffolk, Belmont). Then again, if you counted all three times and did a combined total, I still finished above water.

And so ends my short season of playing Arlington. After playing Arlington-Washington Futurity Day, MassCap Day, and Getaway Day at Arlington, I ended with at least as much as I started, met two quality handicappers and track friends. Not bad.

Posted by: PGM on September 23, 2008 at 12:14 AM

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PERFECT DRIFT, the 9 year old gelding was retired today. Thank goodness that some of them are so unruly they become geldings, and get to stick around for our enjoyment.

Perfect Drift hit the board 26/50 races, and in pretty darn good company most of the time. While not winning his last ran a very respectable 3rd. Was reported today
DR William Reed will let him live his life out on Stonecrest Farm, which will be fine with me as I live in SE Kansas, about 2 hours from Stonecrest.

In a tribute, here is a replay of Perfect Drift's win in the 2003 Stephen Foster S.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Etqf8NuaIc

One other note, after watching and listening to this replay, I for one will really miss Luke Kruytbosch as a race anouncer. He was simply the best. Nothing against Denman, and Durkin but Kruytbosch just had a sixth sense when it came to putting a race into words.

I pity the poor guy, gal that tries to fill his shoes but wish them the best as Luke's act is a tough one to follow.

Posted by: johnnyz on September 23, 2008 at 12:19 AM

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Ktalbany,

This FormBlog has WYSIWYG formatting. That is, how you type your posts in the "Comments" box is how it will look on the screen when posted.

In order to help the readability of posts, use the "Preview" button, look at your post, and edit and re-edit as necessary.

Posted by: PGM on September 23, 2008 at 12:19 AM

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For the HandiGambling:

$54 to win on #10 Tropic Storm

$20 on the Exacta Box 4-10 (Get Funky and Tropic Storm)($40)

$1 TriBox 4-8-10 (Get Funky, One union and Tropic Storm)

Good Luck!!!

Posted by: Ivan on September 23, 2008 at 12:31 AM

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Alan,

For the contest:

Race #1: Morvich H.:
(Post No. 10) Tropic Storm

Posted by: Ivan on September 23, 2008 at 12:31 AM

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LarryK!

Thanks for the "heads up" on My Baby Baby at Kentucky Downs on Monday the 22nd!

I hit the late pick 3 for $150 using a 3x3x3 format ($27), also had a small $4 win on My Baby Baby, who didn't get us 15/1 but instead 9/5 (not your fault, of course). GREAT CALL!!

If #11 Presents For Berti (Race 9) gets a clear run in the stretch instead of netting $120 I could have netted around $310 (figuring a $3 win at 6/1 and I estimate the pick 3 pays $320 vs. $150).

Posted by: tony kelso on September 23, 2008 at 12:32 AM

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ktalbany:

I am not quite sure what you are asking, I would recommend you use the PREVIEW button before you post anything to the blog. I do that to make sure everything "looks acceptable" and my grammar is OK.

I haven't seen the Morvich PPs but I would lean to some sort of "hedged exacta play" with Get Funky and One Union. Obviously Get Funky is the one to beat in here but One Union may surprise.

Posted by: tony kelso on September 23, 2008 at 12:40 AM

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ktalbany,

I am not the one to ask, because I type with two fingers (think of someone giving you the 'bird' with both hands) and I am sure someone who knows what they are doing will give you some good advice.

When you finish the last sentence of a paragraph hit 'Enter' and your curser will drop down as many spaces for the number of times you hit it. Line it up by using a short entry, hit 'Enter' and post your next entry.

I really don't see anything wrong with what you are doing. Personally I wouldn't worry too much about the neatness thing, unless it's something that really bugs the heck out of you. Most of the Formbloggers here, seem to be pretty tolerant. At least I think they are.

I am in agreement with one Formblogger who suggested spacing from paragraph to paragraph. It just makes it easier to read that's all; especially when the post is lengthy and contains several ideas.

nancyb,

I enjoyed reading your post. Perhaps the 'silver lining' of being 'between jobs' is that you will be able to get out to the track and experience first hand the envionment and the things that interest you there. I would personally like hearing about what you find out about the Euro's. If you are concerned about being 'between jobs', I wish you well in finding something.

As far as Hewitt is concerned, I wasn't really suprised that he lost, per se, but as you said, he lost so badly. To be honest I can't fully remember now(Alzheimer's), exactly what I liked about him. As you mentioned, I think I was attracted to his apparent raw talent, good works, and past performance. That, and I have been burned by this type before under-estimating what can be accomplished by a good trainer with a runner of this type coming off a layoff.

Dan,

Please note I had the privilege of meeting up with a fellow Formblogger, PGM, the final day of the Arlington meet. As I am sure you have experienced many times, it is really great to meet someone from the Formblog community 'live and in person'. The talent that is on this board, excluding myself of course, is really something.

Also, I inadvertently left $2.00 out of the Handigambling, so I guess I'll trickle down to the concession and get a Corn Dog with it.

Thanks,

Posted by: chicago gerry on September 23, 2008 at 12:42 AM

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For Wednesday, opening dat at Oak Tree:

#1: Costa Marta, Crazy Tricia, Mark Up Tiny
#2: Sandita, Day of the South, Byjohn
#3: Unusual Smoke, Vital Force, Happy Crafty
#4: Don't Ya Lovett, Shadow of Illinois, Kewen
#5: Hoist the Sail, Outrageous Limit, Seven Point One
#6: Great Siege, Cherokee Artist, Parko
#7: Idle No More, Vulcan, Star Nicholas
#8: Tropic Storm, Get Funky, One Union
#9: Judge Kent, Concerto's Thunder, Cat Brulay

BEST BET: Sandita
LONGSHOT: Tropic Storm

Good Luck!!!

Posted by: Ivan on September 23, 2008 at 01:31 AM

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A few thoughts-

While I have never been a great footbal fan, I have decided to take Sundays of from racing unless my home team is not playing in the afternoon. I shut myelf on the early DD at WO sun which paid over $100. because I'm watching pre game instead of reading my sheets. I did bet 2nd race winner, but it was a small consolation.

Tony Kelso, I don't know if you look at Woodbine on wed. by I usually go to FE for simulcast of that and Penn. If you have any thoughts on 2ND @WO 2yr old Mdn $40,000 going 5 Fur. I would be intrested. Generally 5 & 5.5 is won by strickly the highest E speed fig. horse. donn't know if there are any FTS in the race, I should have picked up a copy of DRF I was in Canada all day monday and it is available in the evening. WE can not get WO in the US edition in Buffalo.

Last, Dan Your PS at the end of your thread, sums up the feelings of 98% of us who look toward this blog for a civil exchange of views and opinions in this sport that is dear to all of us. Dan, Thank You for stepping in on this one.

Please, If I may, I know we discuss other thing both personel and general in nature. But Please no politicing and editorializing on the economy. Many of us are sick enough as we see our hard earned wealth just melting down and do not need be reminded of the here. I choose to have this on my computer all day instead of CNBC or MSNBA

Posted by: buffalo joe on September 23, 2008 at 02:17 AM

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BigEasyChok,

If you see Ray Manley out at this year's Breeder's Cup make sure to let me know. I will be in Nashville on a fraternity trip and if the old man goes out to Santa Anita without his boy than him and I are going to have a lot of problems. But he would never go out to California for the Breeder's Cup without me...at least I hope not!

Posted by: Travers on September 23, 2008 at 03:50 AM

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I can't wait to see how the track plays out! I think we need to wait till after the BC before picking who the leading lady is. My picks for the Morvich.
$50 win One Union
$10 exacta box One Union and Get Funky
$4 Dollar triple box
One Union
Get Funky
Tropic Storm

Posted by: chillywilly on September 23, 2008 at 08:00 AM

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Steve T,
I know your happy to see Oak Tree @ SA starting 2moro, but not us. We just finished up the county fair meet @ Fpx w/ a perfect 3-3 record all in the last wk. (Stettler, Barbara's Love, and Band of Thunder last night.) And after some slow summer months, and nagging injuries which caused Bustin Stones to stay on the sidelines-- our stable is on a 6-8 current streak! Which aside from the Cali scores, included our Harlan's Holiday 2yo c breaking his md @ Delaware, and Curvature($17), Stoliatsiros($48) at Belmont. Things are heating up! I'll try to keep the formbloggers on board w/ some more live ones to come, but I too am really tired of getting on here and reading the tireless debate of Tinky v. whoever challenges his vast and superior knowledge ;) of this great game that we have all came to know and love.

Posted by: Steve V. on September 23, 2008 at 09:17 AM

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I am really excited about the Oaktree meeting starting, so i thought i would take a shot at he Handigambling exercise. here goes:

10 cent super p/w:
4,5,6/8/1,4,5,6,8,10/1,4,5,6,8,10,12/1,4,5,6,7,8,10,12

$50 win #5 (ten meropa)

thanks again to Dr.D for his awesome insights, and cannot wait for some light to get shed this weekend on the contenders and pretenders for BC day

good luck all

p.s
a horse on my watch is in today at Del in the 4th (Glory Gold-#9). had a note that he needed to stretch out, and this race seems to be a nice fit, and he is 10-1. good luck to any that give it a shot

Posted by: todd on September 23, 2008 at 10:16 AM

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Tinky:

How did you get those two little dots above the "i" in naive?

In the Morvich, I would use TROPIC STORM. His only grass race was on the hill and was credible. He since has run well in graded stakes and returns to what may be his preferred surface being by Stormy Atlantic. GET FUNKY and DESERT CODE are more accomplished and may overall be better than Tropic Storm, but I have reasons to play against. Get Funky draws inside in a big field and that may give enough trouble to make the difference, and Desert Code seems a little light on the worktab and his past two off short layoffs indicate he might need one. I'm using Get Funky but leaving Desert Code off all tickets. I'm also interested in REBELLION, but think the rail really compromises his chances and he will need to get lucky, and TEN MEROPA, who has a strong worktab and obviously liked the hill.

The play w/$100 bankroll- $50 win/$20 place on TROPIC STORM; $10 exacta Tropic Storm/Get Funky; $5 exacta Tropic Storm/Rebellion; $3 exacta Tropic Storm/Meropa; $4 exacta Get Funky/Tropic Storm; $2 exacta Rebellion and Meropa/Tropic Storm; $1 tri Tropic Storm/Get Funky, Meropa/Rebellion, Get Funky, Meropa.

Posted by: alhattab on September 23, 2008 at 10:32 AM

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Lethal Heat's Full sis, Heatology in the 1st @ Oak Tree.

Posted by: Ez Goer on September 23, 2008 at 10:35 AM

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To All.

I'm new to the post but have been reading and look here for insight. Good stuff! Just a couple of thoughts about the legends race. Have to say that I'm looking forward to seeing this exhibition. If only Angel could've ridden Easy Goer....

Posted by: Ez Goer on September 23, 2008 at 10:44 AM

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alhattab –

Good question. If I answer it, Steve V. might accuse me of attempting to show off "vast and superior knowledge" of HTML, but I'll take that chance.

Simply cut from another source and paste!

Posted by: Tinky on September 23, 2008 at 10:52 AM

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Oak Tree 8th

#1 (Rebellion) $20w $40pl
$5 ex box #1- #4 (Get Funky) $10
$5 Tri... Key #1 over 4-7-10,
4-7-10 $30
Rebellion can over come the
#1 hole....Good Luck all !!

Posted by: Dave S on September 23, 2008 at 10:56 AM

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Oh, goody, the Morvich. lol

Here's the earnings ratio tops:

Overall:

Rebellion-57,550
Get Funky-32,800
Tropic Storm-27,650

Desert Code-25,500
Matto Mondo-14,000+
Ten Moropa-11,700+

The foreign horses have a + because if they had run comparable races in the U.S., their earnings would have been higher.

Turf Only:

Get Funky-46,900
Desert Code-31,000
Ten Moropa-22,700+

Siren Lure-22,850 (long time ago)
Matto Mondo-14,00+
Rebellion-10,550+

Basically this gives a quick comparison as to how the horses have performed recently and overall on turf.

For comparison, Five Star Thief has 6800 and 3900 on turf.

I notice several like One Union. His numbers are 12,400 and 16,050. Not the worst, but not one of the best either.

BTW, the overall number is this year only if they have run at least 6 races, or else the total for the last two years.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on September 23, 2008 at 11:25 AM

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I was sorry to read that Tizsweetdreams broke down after her 57.60 work on Sat. and had to be euthanized.

She was also one of the four Sadler horses involved in the steroid overages in her last race.

It is sad.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on September 23, 2008 at 11:29 AM

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Gambling in the Show Me State. Why is there states that have passed horse racing legislation deny us wagering? Here in St. louis Misery we have to go to beautiful UNfairmount park and give our money to Illinois. It makes no sense whatsoever. St. Louis is consistenly top five in TV ratings for the Derby broadcast. An untapped market is being overlooked. The dysfuctional horse racing idustry needs some kind of better lobby. You'd think with all the movers and shakers that are owners would want to expand their product. My personal opinion is that owners/breeder's tolerate the bettor but have nothing but contempt for them, kind of like a drunk uncle at holiday parties. Horseplayers are treated like grooms, they can't live without them but are left to muck it on their own. Here's to all us Muckers!

Posted by: Ez Goer on September 23, 2008 at 11:29 AM

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Alan-

Give me Ten Meropa in the contest. (and for the other contest I'll take $50 to win and place on Ten Meropa-I'm actually busy with my (gasp) real job so don't have as much time to devote to the race as I'd like)

Posted by: Stephen Taylor on September 23, 2008 at 11:46 AM

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Travers,
Good grief, what were you doing up at 3:50 am? Maybe you were heading out to the farm to visit our four legged friends?

Travers and BigEasyBigChok,
No Breeders Cup for me this year. Although the idea has certainly crossed my mind. I will probably make the early morning card at Keeneland and stay for the BC races.

Posted by: Ray Manley on September 23, 2008 at 12:06 PM

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If Curlin runs on synthetic and flops, it may cost him HOTY, but I can't see it "tarnishing his legacy". Skip Away had a shot to overtake Cigar for the all-time money earner, and ended his career losing to 30-1 shot Wagon Limit in the JCGC and running horribly in the BC Classic at Churchill. He's still in the Hall and fondly remembered, despite that end of his career (not to mention failing to win a Triple Crown race and only winning the BC Classic over one of the worst fields ever assembled for the race).

Posted by: ElAngelo on September 23, 2008 at 12:36 PM

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Travers,

Too bad you will not be there for the Breeders Cup. Guess I will have to enjoy the two days of racing without you. Eight graded stakes and fourteen Breeders Cup races, other Graded Stakes that Oak Tree has to offer, seeing Big Brown, maybe Curlin, Zenyatta, Indian Blessing, all the Euros. All of that without you fellow blogger. Let me remind you of the Stakes Program for those two days:

Oct 24 ESPN2 3:35 PM Sentient Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Filly & Mare Sprint $1,000,000 7 Furlongs
Oct 24 ESPN2 4:15 PM Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Juvenile Fillies Turf $1,000,000 1 mile (T)
Oct 24 ESPN2 4:55 PM Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies I Juvenile Fillies $2,000,000 1 1/16 Miles
Oct 24 ESPN2 5:35 PM Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf I Filly & Mare Turf $2,000,000 1 1/4 Miles (T)
Oct 24 ESPN2 6:15 PM Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic I Ladies' Classic $2,000,000 1 1/8 Miles
Oct 25 ABC 1:10 PM Breeders' Cup Marathon Marathon $500,000 1 1/2 Miles
Oct 25 ABC 1:50 PM Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint Turf Sprint $1,000,000 6.5 Furlongs (T)
Oct 25 ESPN 2:30 PM Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile Dirt Mile $1,000,000 1 Mile
Oct 25 ABC 3:15 PM Breeders' Cup Mile I Mile $2,000,000 1 Mile (T)
Oct 25 ABC 3:55 PM Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile I Juvenile $2,000,000 1 1/16 Miles
Oct 25 ESPN 4:35 PM Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Juvenile Turf $1,000,000 1 Mile (T)
Oct 25 ESPN 5:15 PM Sentient Breeders' Cup Sprint I Sprint $2,000,000 6 Furlongs
Oct 25 ESPN 6:00 PM Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf I Turf $3,000,000 1 1/2 Miles (T)
Oct 25 ESPN 6:45 PM Breeders' Cup Classic I Classic $5,000,000 1 1/4 Miles

Life is tough man.

Posted by: Ivan on September 23, 2008 at 12:37 PM

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Alan,

Give me Get Funky for the contest please.

Posted by: Rando6 on September 23, 2008 at 12:42 PM

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HandiGambling Question.
In looking over the pp's for the Morvich, I noticed 3 horses who had a workout over the SA turf on 9/17 at 5 furlongs. Two of the horses, Rebellion ans Ten Meropa show fast workouts, 59.3 and 59, with Ten Meropa being 1/3 and Rebellion 2/3. The other horse to work that day and at the same distance was Easy on the Eyes going 5 furlogs in 102.4 being the best of 2.

In checking workout search on DRF, it shows that Rebellion aand Ten Meropa worked on the downhill course, while Easy on the Eys worked on Turf.

The question is do you discount the fast times because both horses were working downhill, or do you give them extra credit for working on the course they will be running on ? Or, maybe I'm just trying to over analyze?

Any thoughts?

Mike Romeo

Posted by: Mike Romeo on September 23, 2008 at 01:06 PM

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A friend forwarded this interesting commentary to me:

"Best unintentionally funny line of the week came from John Brunetti, the owner
of Hialeah Park. Discussing a conversation he had with Halsey Minor about the
technology wizards interest in buying and reviving the shuttered South Florida
racetrack..."

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/monday-morning-quarterback-hialeah-a-mortal-lock/

I was never impressed with Brunetti, and his incompetence would be considered a comedy of errors if not for the serious implications. I'm glad Mr. Minor is motivated to revive Hialeah. I know many racing fans are watching this unfold with concern and anticipation, and, given a choice, I believe most race goers would prefer traveling a longer distance to Hialeah than to Calder, which has no aesthetic qualities, or Gulfstream which has no appeal for the serious handicapper.

Posted by: Laura on September 23, 2008 at 01:52 PM

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All,

I apologize to all but Tinky for my aggressive tone.

I have a problem with bully's of any sort and I have seen enough factless, baseless, accusations from this guy. I love reading this blog, but, invariably an ugly disscussion breaks out after another baseless attack.

I do not have it in me to sit on my hands when someone attacks over and over again with out a shred of proof.

You will probably not see this post, but, if it goes through I can only say I have many weaknesses and taking on all bullies is one of them. If another unwarranted attack comes again without proof, I can't promise I will not go down the same path.

Rest assured I am normally very social, but as I said above....

Posted by: Rick on September 23, 2008 at 02:30 PM

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Sorry if this is a double post but I don't think I hit POST before closing window....so here are my picks minus a short analysis.

ALAN'S CONTEST: TROPIC STORM

HANDICAPPING EXERCISE:

$15 W & P #10
$5 EX BOX 4-10
$3 EX PW 4-10 / 4-5-10-12
$1 TRI PW 4-10 / 4-5-10-12 / 1-4-5-10-12
$.10 SP PW 4-10 / 4-5-10-12 / ALL / 1-4-5-10-12
$.10 SP PW 4-10 / 4-5-10 / 4-5-10-12 / ALL

Dale

Posted by: Dale on September 23, 2008 at 02:42 PM

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Alan contest pick Tropic Storm

Morvich
$15wp on 10 Tropic Storm $30
$1 super 4,5,10 $68
4,5,10
4,5,8,10,12
1,2,5,8,10,12

Posted by: David W on September 23, 2008 at 03:01 PM

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Back in Towson...at least for this week.

Katie,
Here is the BRIS version of the Morvich (Thanks Dan for the DRF version):
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_125320.pdf

Updated FORMBLOG Breeders' Cup Dreaming contest spreadsheet - please check for accuracy, especially that I have included your selections:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL5nDMm2cvAzCg
Please be specific with your Morvich picks tomorrow since it is a race for both the BC Dreaming and the handigambling contests. Please note your choice as the Breeders' Cup Dreaming contest selection. Thanks!!!

Riley,
I'm looking forward to seeing Gold D'oro, the HS to Adriano, make her FTS Thursday in BEL4, a 7f 2yo turf msw. Gold d'Oro is an RF - 5x5 to Special through her daughter Fairy Bridge (the dam of Sadler's Wells) and son Nureyev. The 3rd dam Golden Dust was the dam of Bet Twice. How is she training up to the race?

BTW, BEL4 Thursday is a Lauren Stich and Dan Illman special! There are several other fillies entered in this msw with "stakes worthy" futures. FTS Habaya is a Shadwell homebred by Storm Cat out of turf mare champion Golden Apples (I think this will be her 1st foal to race - Habaya has a year older FS named Deyaar.) There is also a Juddmonte/Overbrook FTS Driven Snow (who scratched from an off-the-turfer last week along with a couple other here), also by Storm Cat out of multiple graded turf stakes winner Wandesta. FTS Melnyk homebred Green Pond is by Forestry out of the HS to Aragorn and she's a 5x5 RF to Sequence (through daughters Gold Digger and Bold Sequence)...and check out her tail female! Other entrants include 3rdTS Just Livin A Dream, by Trippi and the HS to United Nations winner Presious Passion, who just missed at 8/1 last-out; and Nan, a J Paul Reddam private purchase after her just miss FTS who then flopped in her next dirt effort. A very nice maiden 2yo filly turf race indeed!!

Annie,
Chalky has been impossible since her victories in this past weekend's contest results and is now busy studying for the Breeders' Cup:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3140/2882259391_6890730c3c_b.jpg

I've also started the Bill Finley and so far it is a very good read...includes synthetic sire info and lists. Remember that the Guess the Big Brown Stud Fee contest winner will get a free copy of the book courtesy of Chalky and me.

Posted by: Alan on September 23, 2008 at 03:24 PM

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ALAN for the Contest (Morvich)please give me Get Funky thanks---- Joe

Posted by: Joe F on September 23, 2008 at 03:34 PM

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Kentucky Cup Wagerers:

Discovered the blog earlier this year and have enjoyed it thoroughly since then. Just wanted to give something back to the blog here:

Anyone considering wagering on Kentucky Cup Day this Saturday at Turfway should note that the polytrack has produced some moderately weird results so far in the fall meet. 45 of the 142 races run to date have been at the one-mile distance, and according to the DRF charts only 3 horses leading at the half-mile point in those races have held on to win. 14 of the leaders have finished second or third. So in 28 of the one-mile races, the early speed did not hit the board. Not that the horses are coming from way behind, the average winner in the mile races is laying 5.2 lengths off the lead at the half-mile point, and only 5 times has the winner rallied from more than 10 lengths back. Only 8 route races have been run at more than a mile, one winner led after four furlongs.

14 of the 34 winners from the 5 1/2 furlong races and 15 of the 34 winners of 6 furlong races led at the quarter pole, but only 5 out of 20 winners at six and a half furlongs lead at that point.

The rail is really dead. Only 14 of the horses coming out of the #1 chute have been winners. With 142 races having been run and some of those featuring short fields that is not great. 7 of the #1 post winners have come in sprints, 6 in routes. Overall ROI on those horses has been (15%), despite the fact that two ultra-long-shots came in on the same day($90.80 and $70.40 on $2 win bets). Horses coming from the middle and outside post positions seem to have a decided advantage. For example, last Friday, the early Pick 4 went 11-7-6-6 and the late Pick 4 went 6-6-6-6.

There seem to be some jocks that get it in terms of coping with the pace issues associated with Turfway's synthetic surface and some that don't. The poor records exhibited by some of the jockeys aren't, IMHO, attributable solely to bad mounts.

Winners are generally making moves coming into or in the middle of the far turn and moving into contention with wide moves at the top of the stretch. Just like at the SoCal tracks.

Good luck to all!

Two Buck Tommy

Posted by: Two Buck Tommy on September 23, 2008 at 04:32 PM

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Alan, BC Contest Pick:

Morvich H.: ONE UNION

Handigambling Betting:

$ 10 W/P # 8, # 5
$ 5 Exacta Box: 4/5
8/9
5/10
$ 1 Superfecta Box: 4/5/8/10
$ 1 Exacta Wheel:
8 over 1/5/6/9/10/12

Let 'er ride!

Katieattherail

Posted by: Katieattherail on September 23, 2008 at 04:35 PM

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Travers,

Will do. Hope your post means you may be out there as well.

BigEasyBigChok

Posted by: BigEasyBig Chok on September 23, 2008 at 04:43 PM

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I've followed the blog but this is my first post. This is a great blog and community and I'm very happy to be able to read each storyline and discussion.

My purpose today is to give a big congratulations to Marty Drexler and the connections associated with Monsoon Rain, a 6 yo Old Trieste gelding who last Sunday won the closing day 9f Gold Cup stakes at Assiniboia Downs in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada with a BSF of 105. As a 2 yo in 2004, Monsoon Rain had run for Saeed bin Suroor (running under the Godolphin or Darley banner, I assume) in the UK. After a two year layoff the horse had come to NA for two starts on the dirt at Belmont under Eoin Harty's care. However, something again must have gone amiss, as Monsoon Rain ended up in training with Marty Drexler at Assiniboia Downs. Marty has clearly taken this horse from a previously delicate condition and has provided the kind of care and conditioning base needed so the horse could run its best, which his final start of the AsD season certainly displayed. Monsoon, with regular jockey Carlos Marquez aboard, sat off locally bred Brinello and California bred speedster Rock'N'Usa, and after moving past the leaders and opening up into the stretch, "was not asked late while drawing out with something left", according to the chart maker.

In a classy post race interview, Monsoon Rain's owner Larry Carter stated that the horse would be given time off and in response to a specific question, would not be shipped to Woodbine, where larger purses would certainly be available. Trainer Marty Drexler was humble, as usual, and gave thanks to his crew.

Just a good story all around from a track north of the border.

Looking forward to more of the blog/community and to the buildup to the BC.

NellyGCM

Posted by: NellyGCM on September 23, 2008 at 04:52 PM

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Uncle Steve,
Was looking at some old posts earlier today and found this "beauty" from last November:
http://community.drf.com/formblog/2007/11/holy-bull-satur.html#comment-90445756
I guess you won the side bet in the Travers by a nose!! Maybe 2 out of 3 for the BC Classic????

For handigambling tomorrow, I really like #5 Ten Meropa, especially if the 3yo stays near his 15/1 ML. By Johannesburg out of the Danehill mare Tenderly, who is the HS to Pride. Go back a few generations in the tail female to Miss Disco, the dam of.... (anyone want to guess without cheating??) It was a shame they tried Ten Meropa on HOL cushion last out, BUT watch the replay of his win in the Baldwin in March 1st-out in the US after a 6 month layoff...
Other candidates for exotics include #1 Rebellion, longshot #2 Siren Lure, #10 Tropic Storm, #12 Desert Code and last year's winner #5 Get Funky.
$20 WPS #5 = $60
$2 EX #5/#1,2,5,10,12 = $10
$2 EX $1,2,5,10,12/#5 = $10
$1 TRI 5/#1,2,5,10,12/#1,2,5,10,12 = $20

Good luck tomorrow...all you handigamblers!!!

Posted by: Alan on September 23, 2008 at 05:06 PM

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First thing I do is try to figure what kind of Beyer can win a race and throw out those who I don’t think are up to snuff. Last year, Get Funky won the Morovich with a 94. It will take at least that this year, probably higher as some in here have surpassed a 94 recently. This does not mean I will exclude those who have never hit that mark because horses can improve with experience and age.

Siren Lure, Soul City Slew, Ten Moropa, Easy on the Eye, Five Star Thief and California Flag are throwouts for me to win. SL is coming off a long layoff and even his form at the end of ’07 doesn’t inspire me. SCS’s best race since Doug O’Neil took over is a 92 and he seems better on synthetic. TM has won a Gr. 3 at this distance and course, but it was against 3-year olds, he received only a 93 and his involvement is too sporadic. He must have some physical issues. The 5 may be Easy on the Eye, but betting him would be hard on my bankroll. A high of 89 and he would have to improve too much to see my money. Five Star Thief could grab a share but I couldn’t use him to win as his recent high of 91 doesn’t get it done here. California Flag will set the pace but unless they let him sneak off with an easy first ¼, I don’t think he has enough talent to wire this field.

Rebellion and Get Funky should vie for favoritism. Both meet my Beyer par requirement and both appear on paper to be in form. Get Funky has shown speed on occasion and should get a cleaner trip so I give him a definite edge. The last two 99 Beyers stand out and he deserves to be the favorite and the winner will have to come through him. Rebellion will be overbet in my opinion. I think he’ll have too much to do late and too many to go around. Besides, he’s better on synthetic at 7f plus. That’s his game and I think he may just a touch out of his element at 61/2f on the lawn. Also, he’s no value in this spot.

Tropic Storm can win but I’m not feeling it. My guess is he’s over the top as he’s shown a steady decline in Beyer numbers. He could have won this in March but it is September and it’s not like turf is his specialty. I’ll pass on him here and wait for his next freshening.

I’m a Desert Code fan. He’s made me $$ before and would have made me quite the score if he had held on in Mervin LeRoy. That was a tough beat. He has the profile. He’s won at this distance and course and done it with the necessary Beyer but the layoff and post hurt him some. I fear him the most.

One Union is my kinda horse, sliding in under the radar. He’ll take some action but not be overbet. He fits at this level and if one throws out his last, he has 3 straight 95 beyers. He has enough speed to avoid trouble like Get Funky and Desert Code but can also rate. Ill take him at a price, hopefully the 8-1range or better. More than anything, he seems in form, has been running and hasn’t missed any training. That’s big for me.

So I will go $30 WP on One Union.
$6 ex box Get F/ One Union
$10 ex box One Union /Desert Code
$8 for the best Rueben Sandwich in the world at the Mud Bug OTB in Chi on Weed Street.

Posted by: jim tully on September 23, 2008 at 05:32 PM

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When Perfect Drift was at his zenith, he was as good as any racehorse on the planet.

I made my first $100 wager on him, and it was his best performance, at 8-1 as I recall, or therabouts, in winning one of those major stakes when he was 4 or 5. I think 5 was when he was best.

I'm sure Dan will post his PPs and we can all go down memory lane one more time.........

Nothing but respect and good feelings for the old boy, and the original trainer, what can you say - at least he was unique, even if we all scratched our heads at those turf efforts when he was in his prime. Now that was a waste.

I wish everyone here would read the Suffolk book by T.D. Thornton (degenerate) - you will never feel the same way about certain jockeys, and maybe jockeys in general.

It's the best first-hand, up-close look at what goes on behind closed doors at an average urban thoroughbred track (that isn't the big-time).

Did you know, for example, that Angel Cordero, who I think has monuments erected in his honor (maybe plaques?), was involved in race-fixing?

He was. Big time.

This book is a must read for anyone who doesn't want to bury their heads in the sand, relative to what jockeys both have done and are still doing and why it's time to establish safeguards. When you read this book you will come away with a different idea about stewards than you likely had before. This is another area that needs super-reform.

I'm on it.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on September 23, 2008 at 05:45 PM

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My virgin voyage into Handi-Gambling territory - here goes...

The Morvich Handicap:

$30 win - #10
$10 exacta p/w - 10/4,8,12
$8 exacta p/w - 4,8,12/10
$1 trifecta p/w - 4,8,12/1,3,4,8,9,12/10

Total = $99

Posted by: Stefan on September 23, 2008 at 05:46 PM

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Just for clarification of an earlier post, Perfect Drift started 50 times. He placed in 26 stakes, and he placed in other non-stakes as well, so the ratio is better than 26/50. Was one of the best Midwestern handicapper of recent history, and living in Michigan, I got to see him alot of times, over 10 starts. Mirrowing his overall career, he did not win any of the races I saw, but he usually ran well, with a placing.

As a fan of his, the toughest beat was the 2006 Stephen Foster when, as a 7 year old he opened up two lengths in the stretch only to once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, losing by a nose to unheralded Seek Gold. It ranks up there with the 95 Santa Anita Handicap when a 7 year old Best Pal fell a nose short of catching Urgent Request (when I lived in Cali) as one of the most heartbreaking races I saw.

All of Perfect Drift's later defeats makes it easy to forget that he had a sensational 03', beating Mineshaft in the Stephen Foster, Congaree in the Kentucky Cup Classic, while also winning the Washington Park Cap' and Hawthorne Gold Cup before bombing in the Breeders Cup. Glad to see he retired safe and healthy.

Posted by: GunBow on September 23, 2008 at 05:59 PM

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It makes me sick to my stomach that because of the bs (from PETA, and others) over eight belles tragic death, Larry Jones - one of quality people in this sport - is quite possibly retiring.

They have picketed this guy - can you believe that nonsense? And the jockey, too, for that matter.

There is very little humanity in it ("it" being the actions of so-called animal rights advocates). That lack of humanity, I think, is a common denominator among extremists, everywhere.

If Larry Jones quits, they win.

And we lose.

I am penning a letter to PETA, however I will not be including any identifying information - who knows what those crazy $%#@s are capable of?

Posted by: slewofdamascus on September 23, 2008 at 06:10 PM

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Handigambling: I like Ten Meropa in this spot. Having won on course in March (Baldwin-G3) and was well maneuvered by T. Baze into position in the stretch from last to win. Only one trip over the course and did well and with a M/L of 15-1. BTW, he won from post 1 but because of his slow start, it was not a factor which may also happen with Rebellion. I don’t expect him to get off quickly, but can get positioned for a strong finish. Under normal circumstances, I would be all over Get Funky, but I, too, believe that horses in withdrawal from steroids do have an adjustment period. If Five Star Thief hadn’t scratched , it looked like he may have been ready for an ITM run. I liked the Syn-Route/Turf Sprint plus Mitchell/Rosario. I think it’ll be a closer’s race with the early speed setting strong fractions. California Flag, Tropic Storm and Desert Code could make it very interesting up front. My opinion is that they’ll be caught. I have order of finish as:
#5-Ten Meropa
#1-Rebellion
#10-Tropic Storm
The $FB100 play is:
$25 Win #5
$3 Exacta #5 over #1
$4 Exacta Box #1, #5, #10
$2 Trifecta Box #1, #5, #10
$5 Trifecta #1, #5 / #1, #5 / #9, #10, #12
$1 Superfecta #1, #5 / #1, #5 / #9, #10, #12 / #9, #10, #12
Good Luck to all

Posted by: Leo on September 23, 2008 at 06:17 PM

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Huzzah! Fall is here and Santa Anita is starting!

Some picks:
R1: Costa Marta looks like the one to beat; however, One Perfect Karat beat Costa in the latter's debut, but I think she'd have to want more ground; Mark Up Tiny looks like a well-meant firster. I'll try a trifecta box with the three.

R4:
Lots of comebackers and potential cripples. Mt. Orient will probably be the favorite for Gomez/Mitchell. While he needs the lead, he doesn't need an *easy* lead, and he drops slightly in class. Kewen brings some decent form most recently, but was freshened this summer off a layoff since 11/07, so I have to wonder how healthy he is. Shadow of Illinois looks pretty dicey soundness-wise, but could win if more than a shadow of his former self. I'll single Orient.

R5: Seven Point One goes for Bejarano/Cerin; his last race sucked but it was on real dirt, and 2 back he was in too deep; he's worked well since his last start. Hoist the Sail is speed shortening for Mitchell. Outrageous Limit was second to a next out winner at this level last time. Being limited budget-wise, I'll use the first two named in the P-6.

R6: I like a horse in here who could offer value, Parko. Pace and the rail are issues, and he's 0-4 on this surface, but his other NIX tries were won by Vauquelin, Worldly, and What'sthescript (OK, and Papanonie, but that race was off a layoff). His BSFs are improving and he worked well. I think he could be set to fire a big one. Cherokee Artist, the obvious favorite, could be long gone. I'll use those two.

R7: Vulcan could be any kind since the lights went on two back. But he's never shown any early speed in a race that looks pace-free on paper, and he's facing winners for the first time. Expecting Vulcan to be a short price, I will make Sir Bell my top pick. He can stalk a bit; the last race was way too far for him and he has actually taken a NIX before; he almost never runs a bad race. I'll take a chance and single him.

R8, the Morvich: My handicapping of this race is influenced by the fact that I think there'll be masses of speed. That, plus several other factors (Gomez/Sadler, 2-2 this distance, 2-3 this year), make this Get Funky's race to lose. He's the early favorite, however. The other good closer, Rebellion, I think isn't necessarily best as a turf sprinter, plus he tends to break slow and may have trouble working out a trip. The speeds -- Desert Code, Tropic Storm, Cambiocorsa's brother California Flag -- may all duel each other into submission. Given a $100 bankroll, I'd do an $81 trifecta box (hope this math adds up) with Get Funky, Rebellion and Desert Code, and put $19 to win on Get Funky if the price is in the 7/2 range. If he's a shorter price... I'll just buy $20 worth of beer. As it is, I don't have $100 so I will single Get Funky.

R9: Concerto's Thunder should win. That said, why hasn't he won yet? They win stakes races with lower BSFs. Could he be a hanger? I'll use him and Cajun Gent, who comes off a layoff for Gomez/Sise and was 3/4ths of a length behind Two Step Salsa in his debut.

Or I could just go for $16 worth of beer.

Posted by: Kyri on September 23, 2008 at 06:20 PM

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Buffalo Joe:

Sorry I missed your post on Fort Erie for Wed. I liked playing Fort Erie this summer on Mondays but it tended to bite my bakroll a bit. I would love to trade ideas on the "FORT."

I have to get up early Tuesday through Thursday (when I classroom teach) and I don't get to see all the overnight posts until it is too late to be able to respond.

To answer your question broadly, in general, I consider first time starters to be most dangerous at 5f and 5.5f. If the FTS didn't show speed in the morning, they wouldn't be entered in these types of races. Also, if there is a good "EARLY SPEED" entered horse it usually dominates.

For interested parties, I am on this schedule for playing the ponies:

FRIDAY (generally non-claiming, one turn races):
Belmont
Woodbine (turf races only)
Keeneland (Oct. 3rd)
Oak Tree/SA
Remington Park, early evening
Australia, late night (Sydney and Melbourne area tracks)

Saturday (generally non-claiming, one turn races):
Belmont
Woodbine (turf races only)
Keeneland (Oct. 3rd)
Oak Tree/SA

Sunday, off and on (generally non-claiming, one turn races):
Belmont
Woodbine (turf races only)
Keeneland (Oct. 3rd)
Oak Tree/SA

By all means if anyone would like to e-mail me my e-mail is TONYKELSO@aol.com

Cheers!

Posted by: tony kelso on September 23, 2008 at 06:21 PM

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BRISnet class ratings for the Morvich - Leading contenders (best efforts):

Bet Number - Horse - Rating
12-Desert Code 121
10-Tropic Storm 121 (dirt and poly)
4-Get Funky 120
8-One Union 120
1-Rebellion 120
3-Soul City Clew 119
5-Ten Meropa 119
9-California Flag 117

I'm going to play a trifecta part wheel...

8-12/1-4-8-10-12/1-3-4-5-8-10-11-12 (2x4x6x$1=$48)

$4 ex box 8-10-12 ($24)

$16 win 12
$12 win 8

If I did my part wheel correctly that adds up to $100!

Good luck everybody! :-)

Posted by: tony kelso on September 23, 2008 at 06:47 PM

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Alan,
Thanks. She the filly had been training pretty well. She has a nice way of going and hopefully it all works out on Thursday, but you never know with a first timer...we havn't had as many precocious 2 year olds as we did last year.

Posted by: Riley on September 23, 2008 at 07:01 PM

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Alan,
Contest pick for the Morvich H. is One Union.

Thanks , buck1097

Posted by: buck1097 on September 23, 2008 at 07:20 PM

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Alan,
Back from vacation, please give me One Union in the Morovich.
John (from St. Louis)

Posted by: John on September 23, 2008 at 07:22 PM

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Apparently, no formbloggers were in attendance or provided feedback when the NTRA announced the birth of its on-line task force, made up of several horseracing blogs, who made several thought-provoking presentations on how best to attract NEW HORSEPLAYERS.

“These aren’t just horse racing fans,” Della Volpe said. “They’re inside of it, on top of it, living and breathing it, and driving conversations around it. Best of all, they’re chomping at the bit to enliven you with their perspectives.”

The above is one interpretation of a horseracing blogger.

The article is here:

http://tinyurl.com/4ecl8e

One of the ideas presented, which I vehemently oppose, is the "marketing" of jockeys.

Maybe that's all KD needs? An ego boost? And what about the jockey just trying to scrape by? Is that fair to him or her? Or does she get a cut?

Market the horses! Better yet, create an environment where people would like to return. I'm sure the first time I visit Keenland or Saratoga, I'm going to be blown away by the comparison to, say, GGF, where we sit on decades-old landfill and cement movers outnumber gardeners. It's asphalt. And dirt. And that green-painted stuff out in the middle of the track, where it's actually quite pretty. I wish we could be over there.

Bay Meadows had a great infield. Well, it was great to me. I've never been in another. There is nothing in this game like watching a race from the infield. At Bay Meadows, it was quiet over there, you could think, smoke a joint, pick winners. That's the spot where I picked Arcanagues, and came within a half length or less of hitting one of the biggest pick 3s ever when I missed the first leg. I had to wait to play the win on Bailey's horse. By then, I was almost broke, but I saved 10 bucks and that was enough to send me over.

The infield was where I followed Slew Of Damascus around the turf course, with Tom Chapman filling in for the mysteriously missing Ron Hansen, the great Ron Hansen, whereabouts unknown, running from the mob was the rumor that made its way all the way to that infield. He was never to be seen alive again.

Bay Meadows shut their infield down about 7 or 8 or so years ago, in order to add stalls (you know those beautiful things), which affected the beauty of the course negatively, not to mention any reason I had to go.

Marketing?

Posted by: slewofdamascus on September 23, 2008 at 07:30 PM

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HandiGambling 103 selections

$20 win #12 Desert Code
$20 exacta box #4 Get Funky/#12Desert Code
$2 tri 4,12/4,12/1,5,9,10
$2 tri 4,12/1,5,9,10/4,12
$1 tri 1,5,9,10/4,12/4,12

I think Desert Code will be sitting the perfect stalking trip from his outside post. Will have first run at the early speed as they turn for home and should prevail over the closers. Anything near his 8/1 ML will be a gift.

Posted by: Mike Romeo on September 23, 2008 at 08:46 PM

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(Operator announcement coming over the Formblog intercom)

SlewofDamascus, you have a phone call.

Angel Cordero line 2, Angel Cordero on line 2.

***

Can anyone make a case for how turf Beyers are constructed and why they are not completely arbitrary?

***

For interested parties, I am on this schedule for playing the ponies:
FRIDAY (generally non-claiming, one turn races):
Belmont
Woodbine (turf races only)
Keeneland (Oct. 3rd)
Oak Tree/SA
Remington Park, early evening
Australia, late night (Sydney and Melbourne area tracks)

Posted by: tony kelso

Tony, how can you play that many tracks in a day? (and night?) At the end of a card in the Santa Anita grandstand I’m as limp as Steve Garvey after a tour of the greater Los Angeles Hooter’s. You must make only selective plays after reviewing each card, correct? Or are you sitting through the entire card of each track? If so, where do you come up with the energy and focus?

***

Buffalo Joe,

Quickly. Would you trade T. Edwards for JaMarcus Russell straight up today?

***

I was looking over the lifetime PP’s of Commentator and it occurred to me that Zito may not be overstating his credentials when he calls him one of the great ones. Whenever he hasn't had overwhelming adversity, meaning no gate awkwardness or severe pace pressure, he has destroyed all opponents except for St. Liam, who he still beat after setting a 109 3/5 split in the 2005 Whitney. Zito has reasoned that since he is a gelding there is no residual value to gain even if does win so he can wait for the race that suits his time frame. No value, Nick? What about a strong argument for HOY and proper recognition as a “great one”? This year the prom is less than 32 days away and the dress, Commentator’s condition, is a stylish fit so what are you waiting for? Next year? At Santa Anita, again? There is no early speed that can threaten him this year and the only impediment would be the track profile for the ProRide surface. The horse was pointed for this race in both 2005 and 2006 and now that he is healthy and in top form he is going to pass the race? Nick, it is possible to enter and win the race and still be an advocate for dirt surfaces.

***

SlewofDamascus,

San Mateo Narcotics Division, line 1.

***

Mike Romeo,

The works down the hill are an additional way to familiarize the horses uniqueness and crossing the dirt. To my knowledge it's never been done before but with a BC race on the course I'll bet that's the reason for the accommodation this year. In other words, it helps a bit but I wouldn't put too much emphasis on it.

BTW, I also love Desert Code in the Morvich. Gomez, the outside post, and three romps on the course point to a big effort. I see Garrett sitting third off C. Flag and T. Storm in a moderate pace that hinders G Funky and Rebellion. And D Code will be 6/1.

***

Slew,

Half of me wants no part of knowing the jockey's behind the scenes chicanery and the other demands it. When I've broken down all the aspects of the race and ready to place my wagers the last, the very last, thing I want to handicap is whether the jock is on the up and up. If I was Pittsburgh Phil I could manage a solution but I'm not so I can't.

I'll have to get the book.

Posted by: Mathieu on September 23, 2008 at 11:06 PM

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I meant to add that Tropical Storm is my 2nd choice, I think he's the one the closers will have to catch in deep stretch as he can sit just off of it and control his own destiny. He's handy, and Gryder knows him. The value could be here, as many will see the failure at Longacres as a litmus test since he was bought for that purpose, but wasn't that kind of stab to begin with? And he didn't run too bad considering they made the track a closer's paradise to help Wasserman. Can't be too harsh. His race to lose late?

Posted by: slewofdamascus on September 24, 2008 at 03:07 AM

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my revised Handigambling pick:

10 cent super:
4,5,6,8/1,4,5,6,8,10/1,4,5,6,8,10,12/1,2,4,5,6,8,10,12

$50 win on #5

thanks
todd

Posted by: todd on September 24, 2008 at 07:39 AM

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I haven't posted here before so you will all likely think I am a total idiot.

I looked at Commentator's pp's and they certainly are impressive, however I don't see an obvious indication that he can get the mile and a quarter of the B.C. Classic. But what makes me idiotic is please could somebody tell me what those two numbers are that come after the odds and are separated by a hyphen? Pretty please?

Also I have a little beef but I don't think anyone in the whole of America agrees with me. I have a retired racehorse - he was raced too hard too young, but I got him off the track before serious damage was done, and he now looks very sturdy and has regained much of his lost confidence. He broke maiden first time out at 2 by 10 lengths at LAD in a mcl 25k. Now this isn't tip top class by any means, and injuries, overracing, layoffs etc. contributed to his poor performances subsequently, so I have no idea whether he's a good racehorse or not and I can't afford to race him on my own. A trainer offered to take 70% of him but I declined as I believe I owe it to the rescue people who helped me track him to maintain control and make sure he is as safe as he can possibly be. I love him, and I love to watch him run, he's beautiful, and I love racing more than I can say. So the irony is that I have my very own sound beautiful racehorse that I can't race. In America it seems that (I'm from Britain originally) even if I could get a partnership together I would always run the risk of losing him in a claim. Much as I love him I don't see him as allowance caliber unless he really has become much stronger, but he would qualify for starter allowances which we know are very competitive as they are few and far between, so it would seem that claiming would be his only option. My conclusion is that in America you cannot race a horse if you love him, and you cannot love a horse that you race because he is always for sale. In the Britain I remember the partnerships (and we're not talking IEAH here) were often of people who considered the training costs (shared) as the cost of entertainment and they were allowed to enjoy their days at the races and love their horses even as their careers declined. And in addition, it was often the case that their old friend found a new career in steeplechasing or hurdling, with steeplechasers often not reaching their prime till 10 or 11. I understand the allure of claiming and this is not an argument against it, but would the whole system fall apart if there were non-claiming races below allowance level for horse lovers as opposed to money makers? If they can do it in Britain, where they have quite a complex class system of conditions (including selling races), why couldn't they do it here in America the mighty? And might it not be good for the industry to bring in a new type of owner? That type of owner might only have one or two horses, but they were proud of them and would bring numerous friends to the races, ultimately expanding the fan base. Technology isn't the only approach to revitalising horse racing.
Meanwhile my beautiful horse is a pasture pet in a barbed wire field with a bunch of washed up quarter horses and a miniature pony as I can't afford to move him or have him trained for a new discipline and I don't ride well enough to train him myself. Someone earlier in this blog alluded to a brand new condition. Might we turn our attention to race conditions to see if there could be new ideas there that would benefit horse racing as a whole?

Posted by: geowarrior on September 25, 2008 at 07:24 AM

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geowarrier,

Welcome to Formblog! Go to the 9/24 post for my response to your post.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on September 25, 2008 at 01:34 PM

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