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FormBlog | September 24, 2008
HandiGambling 103, Turkoman
Today's HandiGambling exercise focuses on the Grade 3 Morvich Handicap at Oak Tree, a "Win and You're In" event for the new Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. I landed on Rebellion as I think he's really going to appreciate getting back on the grass for Graham Motion. He's raced five times on turf in North America with good results. You could draw a line through his grass losses in the United States as both races came around two turns on wet courses. When he gets firm going at sprint distances, he's a perfect 3 for 3. He's also been running in good form against tough company on the polytrack, and gets some class relief this afternoon at Oak Tree. Last time out, in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Handicap at Del Mar, Rebellion broke awkwardly, and was forced to rally around the entire field turning for home. He was moving quickly in the stretch, and was only beaten 2 3/4 lengths for all the marbles. I was really hoping that Tropic Storm would ensure a quick early pace, but he was scratched, and now Rebellion may have to work just a bit harder to make his late run successful. Still, I think he's the best horse, and I'll play half of my imaginary $100 bankroll on his nose to Win at 5-2 odds or greater.
Get Funky is obviously the horse to beat based on his excellent form, and affinity for this tricky downhill course, a surface that Rebellion has yet to navigate. The 2007 Morvich winner, Get Funky's good trip almost turned disastrous in his most recent start at Del Mar. He was sitting in a pretty pocket spot turning for home, but nothing opened up, and he was bottled up in behind horses for a moment or two before bursting in between foes for the sharp score. He has more tactical speed than Rebellion, and will more than likely get the jump on that guy turning for home.
The scratch of Tropic Storm leaves a void up front, and California Flag looms an intriguing longshot pace play. He's won his last two turf sprints with solid speed figures, and will likely be ignored by the public as he steps way up in class. He's pretty quick, and should be very prominent when they swing into the stretch.
Siren Lure has back class and a .500 batting average on grass, but he hasn't reached the winner's circle since 2006. Soul City Slew exits a key race, but may be a cut below. His only turf win came down the hill, however. Desert Code also has some back ability, and he won the 2007 Baldwin over this course. I wonder if he'll need one off the bench. One Union has some speed, but his only turf win came around two turns, and he showed nothing in the Del Mar Mile after pressing the pace. Easy on the Eye may be in a bit steep. Matto Mando is a multiple Group 1 winner in his native Chile, but the long layoff and cutback in distance are concerns. Ten Meropa's career has been stalled by layoff lines.
Here are my plays:
$50 Win - Rebellion (#1)
$20 Exacta - Get Funky/Rebellion (#4/#1)
$10 Exacta - California Flag/Rebellion (#9/#1)
$10 Exacta - Rebellion/Get Funky (#1/#4)
$5 Exacta - Rebellion/California Flag (#1/#9)
Five dollars goes to the retirement fund.
The initial HandiGambling race (a 'n2L' claimer) showcased that certain types of horses (dropdowns, lightly-raced runners) win certain kinds of races (avoid recent maiden graduates stepping up in class).
Trip Handicapping helped me out tremendously with the HandiGambling 102 exercise. I'm not really a big fan of the "race over the track angle," but I guess it holds some water over difficult surfaces like the Fairplex bullring. The winner had just raced over the course, and although he did lose that previous race, the way he cornered around those tight turns coupled with his pace advantage gave me confidence in playing him to win.
Here, I'm hoping that a classy, formful horse can move forward with a surface switch.
We'll see.
Several of our posters have been reminiscing about Turkoman over the last few days so let's feature him in our Past Champions Retrospective. Turkoman was voted Best Older Horse or Gelding in 1986 after winning half of his eight starts. The son of Alydar only raced once as a two-year-old, but he did not disappoint in that six furlong test over a sloppy Hollywood surface. Piloted by Sandy Hawley, Turkoman rallied from next-to-last to win at 5-2 odds. Despite being a debut winner, to say he was a late-bloomer would be an understatement. Turkoman started 13 times as a three-year-old in 1985, and his only added-money score came in his season finale, the Grade 3 Affirmed Handicap going one mile at Hollywood on December 14. He won two allowance races that season, one at Hollywood, and one going seven furlongs by 10 lengths at Belmont, but he was mostly a nibbler that year. In 1985, Turkoman finished second in the Gold Rush Stakes (by a head) at Golden Gate, the Grade 2 California Derby at Golden Gate, the Grade 1 Swaps at Hollywood (by a nose), and the Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga. He placed third in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Turkoman put it all together the following season. Let's relive the words of the legendary Joe Hirsch from his "1986 Racing in Review" column in the 1987 American Racing Manual:
"Where Lady's Secret was the champion handicap racemare, Corbin Robertson's Turkoman (by Alydar) was the champion handicap horse with a record of four wins and three seconds in eight starts and earnings of $1,531,664.
The 4-year-old Turkoman, trained by Gary Jones and ridden in the majority of his races by Chris McCarron, staged one of the most brilliant finishes in recent memory in capturing the six-furlong Tallahassee Handicap on March 7. Sent East from California to race on a track with some cushion, he got up to score by almost three lengths in the Tallahassee after being fifth and apparently beaten at the furlong pole. The even-money favorite, he raced the six furlongs in a near-record 1:08 1/5 and had Miamians buzzing.
He confirmed his ability in the prestigious Widener Handicap on March 29. The Grade 1 Widener, at 10 furlongs, drew a field of six for its 49th running, with Turkoman favored at 6-5. Once again he was dead last down the backstretch, rallied on the turn, and was third at the furlong pole. Turkoman sizzled through the final furlong to score by half a length over Darn That Alarm, to whom he was conceding nine pounds. His time for the mile and a quarter was a track record 1:58 3/5. Gate Dancer was third, Creme Fraiche fourth and Proud Truth fifth in a strong field.
Laying closer to the pace at Oaklawn Park on April 18, Turkoman also won the Grade II Oaklawn Handicap, beating Gate Dancer by a length and a half at level weights. The winner's nine furlongs in 1:47 2/5 approached the Oaklawn track record. Turkoman also raced well in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Mile at Belmont Park on May 26 but raced extremely wide and finished fourth, beaten a length and a half in a race won by Garthorn, with Love That Mac second and Lady's Secret third. A nose and a neck separated Turkoman from second money."
"Freshened during the hot weather of midsummer, Turkoman resumed competition at Saratoga in mid-August and was extremely sharp considering the long layoff. He finished furiously and missed the speedy Groovy by only three-quarters of a length in the Grade II Forego Handicap. The winner was timed in 1:21 1/5 for the seven panels.
Turkoman ran a corking race in the Grade 1 Marlboro Cup at Belmont Park on September 13, prevailing by a length and a half over the hard-hitting Precisionist, who was conceding four pounds. Turkoman's mile and a quarter in 2:00 came close to a Belmont track record. Gary Stevens rode the big horse and did a good job.
The $850,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup on October 4 at Belmont drew a field of six, and it is a tribute to Turkoman that he was a 1-2 favorite. Danzig Connection, the Belmont Stakes winner, set the pace and ran the first mile in a tepid 1:40. Turkoman, who would have benefited from the faster pace up front, made his run from behind as usual and just missed by a head to another stretch-runner, 1985 Belmont Stakes winner Creme Fraiche, trained by Woody Stephens. Turkoman finished almost five lengths ahead of Danzig Connections after a mile and a half in 2:28.
In the final start of his career before going to stud, Turkoman was a narrow favorite over Precisionist in the $3,000,000 Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita on November 1. Herat set a lively pace and was in front through six furlongs in 1:10 1/5. Then the 10-1 Skywalker took over, opened a big lead after nine furlongs, and stood a long drive gamely to prevail by a length and a quarter over Turkoman, who came from ninth with a smashing move. The favorite was six wide into the stretch to best Precisionist by a length and a quarter for second money. Skywalker was timed in 2:00 2/5 in capturing the world's richest race."
***
Amanda asked about King of the Roxy. The folks at Team Valor announced his retirement today, and he will probably stand his first season at stud in 2009.
***
Talk to you tomorrow.
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on September 24, 2008 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
I'll sub Dersert Code for Tropic Storm so my new tickets will be:
$20 Win 5,6 = $40
$2 Tri Box 5,6,12 = $12
$1 Tri 5,6,12/5,6,12/All = $48
Lenny
Posted by: aparagon4u on September 24, 2008 at 04:20 PM
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Was looking at the Racing Form early this morning, and it looks like the genie has finally granted the wish: Beyer Par lines in the race headings. Of course, some were 'N/A,' I imagine, because of the new surface. But hey, it has begun.
Here's to a good season at Oak Tree.
Posted by: eternal_arcadia on September 24, 2008 at 05:18 PM
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BuffaloJoe:
Were on the same horse.
Lets go MoreforMonday(Thats what MattoMondo meansif you didn't know)
Posted by: larryk on September 24, 2008 at 06:02 PM
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And yet one more change to my picks. This time after my 10 scratched.
$20 win 1.
$40 exacta 1 with 4/12.
Posted by: DOFC on September 24, 2008 at 06:15 PM
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Guess Bejarano enjoyed his time off, through 5 he has won 3.
Posted by: Steve T. on September 24, 2008 at 06:18 PM
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Here are my Morvich plays. Get Funky is the win bet. I'll root for either Ten Moropa (in return to grass) or One Union (pace factor against better in what I think might be a key race) to provide juice to the exact...but I'll settle for either Rebellion or Desert Code for second.
$56 Win #4 = $56
$4 Ex.: 4 / 1,5,8,12 = $16
$4 Ex,: 1,5,8,12 / 4 = $16
$1 Ex. Box: 1,5,8,12 = $12
Posted by: EricB on September 24, 2008 at 06:28 PM
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Alan,
Put me down for: Get Funky
Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on September 24, 2008 at 07:38 PM
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handigambling---
$10 exactas
12/1349
$10 tri
4,12/4,12/129=$100
Posted by: matt smith on September 24, 2008 at 07:39 PM
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Dan,
You had the right idea with California Flag! How did you not use him with Get Funky who you acknowledged as the horse to beat?? Anyway, great handicapping nonetheless...
Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on September 24, 2008 at 07:57 PM
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Unbelievable, we all whiffed but RobertSD who nailed the tri ($735.60). I went back through the blog, so if I missed you I apologize.
Posted by: Steve T. on September 24, 2008 at 08:17 PM
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I took a quick glance at everyone's Handigambling 103 selections over the past few days and I think congratulations are in order for cayman01. His combination of $15WPS on California Flag and hitting the 10¢ superfecta got him the win by a solid $81.96 over my winning trifecta (even with an added $16 for stupidly not adding Desert Code in the 2nd/3rd slots when I revised my trifecta following the Tropic Storm scratch) Also, Ivan nailed the trifecta on his final wager -- boxing the top three finishers -- nice job. If I missed anyone else I apologize but there were tons of selections to review. Finally, I never (until today) post a wager that I am not going to wager on myself -- of course, today I didn't wager on the race and it cost me big time as I surely would have nailed all the horizontal exotics -- ouch!
- robertSD
Posted by: robertSD on September 24, 2008 at 08:29 PM
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Dan,
Definitely need a post mortem on our handigambling 103.
In hindsight (where I am a solid 100%) the scratch of Tropic Storm changed the complexion of the race. Desert Code has generally not broken on top in turf races (and his recent form is iffy) which left California Flag all by his lonesome, and his previous performances says the distance is ideal. He looked like Monterey Jazz out there (and set a new track record to boot)
Speaking of Monterey Jazz, where the hell did he disappear to??
Posted by: Steve T. on September 24, 2008 at 08:46 PM
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Uncle Steve,
I think Ivan won - here are the winners I found:
***$15 WPS 9
Posted by: cayman01 on September 22, 2008 at 09:58 PM
***$20 Exacta 1/9 with 1/4/9 (he revised post next day to 1/10 with 1/4/10.)
Posted by: DOFC on September 23, 2008 at 11:41 PM
***$6 win 9
Posted by: tony kelso on September 23, 2008 at 11:52 PM
***$6 on the Tri Box 4-8-9
Posted by: Ivan on September 24, 2008 at 01:54 PM
***$1 TRI:
Get Funky (4) California Flag (9) Desert Code (12)
w
Rebellion (1) Soul City Slew (3) Get Funky (4) One Union (8) California Flag (9)
w
Rebellion (1) Soul City Slew (3) Get Funky (4) One Union (8) California Flag (9)
Posted by: robertSD on September 24, 2008 at 02:31 PM
Updated contest spreadsheet:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL5nDMm2cvAzCg
Updated Leaderboard:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL5nDMm2cvAzCg&gid=2
Posted by: Alan on September 24, 2008 at 08:55 PM
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Thanks Steve T. I guess I was so miffed at not making any of my wagers today I misread cayman01's superfectas -- where he actually didn't have One Union in his first ticket -- so I guess I actually did eek out the win over Ivan thanks adding my $16 mistake to the bankroll. Glad to actually win something today as I left a ton of real $$$ on the table as I would have also had the late P3 -- had I wagered any real $$$.
- robertSD
Posted by: robertSD on September 24, 2008 at 08:58 PM
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FYI Formblogger alert:
Here's a link to get all of your stake info, dates and entrants for each one, pretty cool.
SA: I swung amd missed a lot today at SA, too many seconds. Granted, this was based on 2-minute handicapping, but some of the results threw me. Baffert's maiden dropper looked like a sure winner turning for home, and it was like they were running in goo in the stretch. I wonder if there was a strong headwind in the stretch for a couple of those races today. Because later, that invisible barrier seemed to disappear and horses were coming into the stretch off of pressing efforts and finishing up fine.
I want to see more.
Zenyatta willl be heavily favored when taking on Hystericalady in the Lady Secret this Saturday, and I wonder if that's a mistake?
If Hystericalady gets a fairly easy lead, will they go all out to try and run her down and preserve Zenyata's record? Or will they save her for the BC? Or is Zenyata so good it doesn't matter?
If I can get Hystericalady at 2-1 in a situation where she can dictate the action, I'm thinking Zenyatta would have to be on her game 100%. I realize Hystericalady is not as good on synthetic, but an easy lead is an easy lead and her class is unquestioned, especially when she's alone up front.
A fascinating race, for all sorts of reasons. I do believe that Hystericalady will be giving 100% for the victory.
I have to look at the other entrants and see what they are bringing to the table.
Hollendorfer is at his best with fillies and mares in peak form.
Posted by: slewofdamascus on September 24, 2008 at 09:23 PM
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Dans post shows why horses are so tough to beat. You have the pace all figured out and still can not put it together it happens to us all the time which is what makes the game so tough
Posted by: Burt Shapiro on September 24, 2008 at 09:37 PM
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Not being able to change my wager cost me in handigambling 103. I would have substituted One Union for the scratched horse and at least hit the super.Also, not being able to see Get Funky before the race hurt.Did he look alright? I know he ran second, but how was he before the race?Any steroid withdrawal signs?
At least I'll get back in the Breeder's Cup Challenge with the winner today. Should move me up a few spots chasing larryk too.
Posted by: cayman01 on September 24, 2008 at 09:45 PM
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Steve T.,
Did California Flag not tie the course record with that 1:11 time? Can't belive he lasted going 42.4 for the first half. Impressive run.
Is the BC Turf Sprint going down the hill? Mr. Nightlinger might have some company in that one.....
Posted by: cayman01 on September 24, 2008 at 09:54 PM
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I think I barely squeaked by Ivan in Handigambling 103 since I only wagered $84 - that's if my extra $16 is allowed to be added to the winning wager - though I think we need an official ruling from Dan! And while it was fun to nail the trifecta I am still smarting from actually not betting it -- never again will I do that.
- robertSD
Posted by: robertSD on September 24, 2008 at 10:27 PM
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RobertSD, cayman01, tony kelso;
Nice job on HandiGambling 103. That was a good race, and a good handicapping/wagering race. If I missed someone here, I am sorry, but congrats nevertheless.
Overall, I did well today. I had the Superfecta in the 3rd, as well as the Exacta, and had a nice Exacta in the 4th. I am now back-on-track, and within my means for the last quarter (I know it's only late September, but my year ends 12/25/08)!
I will endeavor to keep with Exacta and Superfecta wagers (for the most part), and I should be able to hang-on!
Good night, good people!
Van Savant
Posted by: Van Savant on September 24, 2008 at 10:34 PM
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I guess Ivan's TRI BOX was a $1 BOX...so I'll leave the determination of the handigambling winner to the contest stewards, aka Uncle "King Solomon" Steve!!
PPs so far for this weekend's FORMBLOG Breeders' Cup Dreaming contest races:
Good luck finding Ascot PPs!!!
Here are some others so far for some of the OSA stakes:
TheZenyatta: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_125601.pdf
OakLeaf-G1: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/baffert_125607.pdf
YlwRibbn-G1: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_125639.pdf
TheTiago: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/dougoneill_125654.pdf
cayman01,
I forgot to give you credit for your selection today - CONGRATULATIONS!! See updated Leaderboard:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL5nDMm2cvAzCg&gid=2
Posted by: Alan on September 24, 2008 at 10:52 PM
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Went back over the posts for the last couple of days to see how everybody else played the Morvich. Was shocked to find two things: 1) nobody but me liked CALIFORNIA FLAG,
and 2) Can't find my post to Alan picking CF for the contest ( insert expletive here).
As for number 1, unlike Steve Crist I LOVE turf sprints. So I'll give my angle for picking California Flag. Pace is a huge factor in Turf Sprints and looking at the numbers nobody was going to go with CF. He was the only horse with a sub 44
half. This led me to believe he'd get a clear lead ( he did) and get real brave and finish (which he did and had done in his past two sprints).
I didn't know Tropic Storm had scratched, but when he did that made the race a whole lot easier for the horse.
As for number 2 I do not know what happened to my post.
I went back and checked the BC Challenge and my selection was there ( which is the one I usually forget!) but not here. WTF did I do?
slew-
I have a relative who is an ex-jockey. He worked the small tracks around New England for many years and he'll tell me a story now and then about race fixing (that's why I don't play the small tracks). It boils down to the fact that at the small tracks there's not enough purse money to go around. When you're making $20 a mount it becomes very tempting to fix a race to get a nice "community" score. Nobody knew but the jocks involved.And when the $2500 Tri lit up the board the crowds just went "oooohh"
and moved on to the next race.
The jockeys would eat for a couple of weeks. I'm not condoning the practice, just telling it like it was.
Posted by: cayman01 on September 24, 2008 at 11:12 PM
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For Thursday at Oak Tree:
#1: Four Four Two, Bien Dulce, Mama Lula
#2: Details are Sketchy, Forgive your Sins, Pick to Click
#3: Dogmatic, Catastaire, Holy Thunder
#4: Waive Liability, Black Tux, Twin Turbo
#5: Zephanyah, Mickey Rocks, Soul Giant
#6: Eissoai, Silver Swallow, Andmoreagain
#7: Major Smoke, North Fork, Harlene
#8: Promise Rose, Memo's Chica, Atahonour
BEST BET: Details are Sketchy
LONGSHOT: Major Smoke
Good Luck!!!
Posted by: Ivan on September 24, 2008 at 11:38 PM
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Cayman,
Yes he did tie the record at 1:11 flat, even with those fractions. Ya just gotta love the downhill! Yes the BC Turf Sprint will be on the downhill. Mr. Nightlinger is going to have real problems I think, this is one that should go to a locals.
Posted by: Steve T. on September 24, 2008 at 11:41 PM
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Larry K-
I guess he needed one after 300= days off, or maybe wrong day for him. It goes to show how rough it is to handicap before scratches. The scratched horse gave winner a free lead, the first lesson I ever learned is speed is the most dangerous comodity on the race track. I got very lucky, I put my bets in early, because I palned on being out for dinner, but stayed home, but could not change my bets with twin spires. I was going to stay with Mondo anyway(but smaller bet), I put a saver DD on 16 in the 7th with 9-11 because Dan had pointed out that California Flag was now a danger to wire the field. I then completly forgot I put the bet in and turned the TV off after the race. Later I turned on the computer to bet a few WO races and was shocked to see my account balance was some $260. more than I thought I had.
Thanks Dan.
Also I thought I was going to be able to join in Fri. in chat, but I'll be up in Canada for poker and am not likely to return on time to join in. Will there be a transcript available on your site.
Thanks and good luck to all on the weekend.
Posted by: buffalo joe on September 25, 2008 at 12:06 AM
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BC Turf Sprint - Down the hill on Saturday, Oct. 25th...
Brisnet.com also identified California Flag (CF) as a loose leader....That's why I had a $6 saver on him in the Handigambling contest.
Note to Formbloggers - true loose speed is NEARLY ALWAYS fatal in a turf sprint, because speed carries better on most firm grass than it does on dirt.
I also made it to Canterbury and played the CF/One Union/Desert Code ex box......Too bad One Union didn't get into second, that cost me $300 in profits. I had a $2 win on CF to show a modest profit $27 on the race; that paid for gas money...
Dan Illman, I am willing to "wager" that Rebellion was only prepping for the big dance on Oct. 25...I would not be afraid to play Rebellion back. I also suspect Get Funky was not fully cranked up, either. CF, on the other hand, HAD to win the Morvich to get in the BC Turf Sprint. Desperation can be a pretty good motivator. :-)
Posted by: tony kelso on September 25, 2008 at 12:11 AM
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Time to stir up some conversations about the Breeders Cup. Here is my lineup of interesting longshots (Zenyatta is not a longshot if you need clarification)for each race:
BC Classic - Mast Track
BC Distaff - Lethal Heat
BC Turf - Cedar Mountain
BC F&M Turf - Ariege
BC Mile - Monzante
BC Dirt Mile - Dixie Chatter
BC Sprint - In Summation
BC F&M Sprint - Magnificience
BC Turf Sprint - Passion
BC Juvenile - Jose Adan
BC Juvenile Fillies - Palacio de Amor
BC Marathon - Big Booster
Posted by: Steve T. on September 25, 2008 at 12:17 AM
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Cayman01,,
Nice hit. And yes, the trf sprint is down the hill.
Posted by: larryk on September 25, 2008 at 01:04 AM
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Turnbackthealarm,
After observing Kent D for the better part of 17 years a consistent aspect of an overall erratic MO is his avoidance of duels. If I recall correctly you saw Kent do this live when he wrapped up BB a few jumps into the Haskell. There are exceptions, of course, like in the 2002 Shoemaker Mile when after an easy quarter tracking Orientate with Special Ring he turned it into a 6F sprint for home costing me a juicer P6. But his preferred trip is sitting off the right flank of the pacesetter keeping him off that temperamental rail, which bites and bites hard. Ask him.
Additionally, if Jackson gets over himself and correctly enters Curlin, who would ever choose Kent in an important race again if he leaves nothing in the tank for Big C in the stretch drive? Add in the fact that Commentator is flat out faster than BB (could he have a head in front after a half in 44 2/5th's while lunging at the start like Commentator did in last year's 6F Vanderbilt? I don't believe so) and that's how I see Commie clearly in command IF Zito gets over his synphobia.
***
Pro-Ride is 87% dirt! Why isn't Santa Anita shouting this from the rooftops for the anti synthetic crowd to absorb? By the way, is there any dirt at all in Polytrack, Cushion Track, or Tapeta? And if so how much? When I was at Del Mar inspecting the Polytrack I saw strips of old tires, variously colored carpet fibers, and a wrapper from Slew's rolling papers. But no dirt.
***
I saw someone who looked like John Sadler at Rite Aid on the way home tonight. This is what I thought I overheard:
JS:"Where do you keep the earplugs?"
RA Employee: "Right over there, sir. Anything in particular?"
JS: "Yeah, the Rafael Palmiero model."
Posted by: Mathieu on September 25, 2008 at 01:22 AM
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Well, I lost another $100 of Dan's money. Sorry about that, Dan. Congratulations to all who did do well.
What did I learn today? Early speed trumps class when another speed horse scratches. Say, didn't we just learn that one recently. lol
I was too busy looking at class to pay much attention to California Flag. Sorry about that California Flag. I know I should have given him a closer look after Tropic Storm scratched, but I'm afraid I pretty much dismissed the original 30-1 against some of the others in here.
Never dismiss early speed, never dismiss early speed, never dismiss early speed. There that ought to do it.
Annie
Posted by: Annie on September 25, 2008 at 02:16 AM
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And you thought Foghat was passé.
******
FormBlog, take it easy – FormBlog, take it easy,
FormBlog, take it easy - FormBlog, take it easy.
Dan’s in the mood,
boom boom boom boom boom boom boom
the content is right,
boom boom boom boom boom boom boom
Move to the music,
boom boom boom boom boom boom boom
Gunbow can post all night.
Oooh, oooh, Formblog - oooh, oooh ...
Tinky, take it easy
Calvin, take it easy
Formblog, take it easy - Formblog, take it easy
Slow down, chill now, got to get your info just one time
Hold me, roll me, mellow written posting you're so fine
(14 minute guitar solo)
Woo!
Repeat
Posted by: Mathieu on September 25, 2008 at 02:24 AM
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The Turkoman piece brought to my attention another member of that very good crop of 1982 (3 year olds of 1985), Skywalker. By far Skywalker's biggest win was the 86' Breeder's Cup Classic when he ran a 118 Beyer in beating Turkoman. He did, however, also win the grade 1 1985 Santa Anita Derby and grade 2 86' Mervyn LeRoy.
Posted by: GunBow on September 25, 2008 at 02:25 AM
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In one of his books, Andy Beyer lists Turkoman as one of the 7 horses between 1986 and 1993 to run a fig of 123 or greater; I think he wrote that Turkoman's top was a 128, and described him as the most exciting stretch runner of the decade. My guess is that his top fig came in the 86' Marlboro Cup, when he beat the brilliant Precisionist by 1.5 lengths in 2 minutes flat and a 24 a 1 final quarter. Also telling is that the recent winner of the grade 1 Iselin, Roo Art, was a very distant third, 8.75 lengths behind Precisionist.
Turkoman's Oaklawn Cap was also strong as he won with a 11 and 3 last eighth.
Posted by: GunBow on September 25, 2008 at 02:37 AM
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Contest Picks at Ascot-
Alan, sorry these are coming in "piece by piece" but here are my picks for the Contest Races-
Queen Elizabeth 2-I'm gonna take a shot with the 5yo Mare SABANA PERDIDA-Henry the Navigator is going to be the chalk, and I had it down to Raven's Pass or Sabana, and decided to take a shot at a price.
In the Fillie Mile, give me DREAM THE IMPOSSIBLE-Rainbow View will be a heavy chalk, but my pick won last at the distance and according to what I read was still green and open to further improvement. If a "lightbulb" clicks on, who knows?
In the Lodge-I'll take PATRICIAN'S ROYAL who has 2 starts at 7f but should improve when stretching out to a mile at a fair price.
(Be back later with the "stateside" selections")
Posted by: Stephen Taylor on September 25, 2008 at 08:45 AM
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Sometimes you have to have something pounded home multiple times before you "get it". Such was the case in Handigambling 103.
Here was a post I made after Handigambling 101:
"Cayman did something that I have been remiss in - he rehandicapped the race after the scratches. "
The scratch of Phobia in our first handigambling changed the complexion of the race. Apparently the lesson didn't last long because here I am in handigambling 103 DOING THE EXACT SAME THING! Tropic Storm scratches and it changes the complexion of the race. Now the only speed is California Flag and Desert Code - and Desert Code does not have the speed on turf that he does on the main track, and he is running from the outside. This made California Flag lone speed. Here is another fact that I managed to ignore - in every one of his turf races California Flag was on the lead at first call, EVERY SINGLE DAMN TIME! His only three times where he wasn't on the lead? When he ran on the main track.
Dan got it:
"The scratch of Tropic Storm leaves a void up front, and California Flag looms an intriguing longshot pace play."
Everybody knows that speed kills - here is the statement I published in my handicapping guide:
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The old adage “Speed Kills” is true in horse races as well. Defining the term “speed” has led to long contentious discussions and
many attempts to quantify speed. Nothing makes a horseplayer’s heart sink like a wire job from a horse (that you didn’t bet).
Frontrunners have a couple of inherent advantages, they avoid traffic and they can hug the rail, reducing the total distance they run.
Lone speed in a race ALWAYS deserves serious consideration.
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This is the part of handicapping that kills most of us, ignoring a fundamental tenet of handicapping - in this case speed kills. Without Tropic Storm, there was not enough speed to put pressure on the frontrunner (this is a classic, for a barbecue you need three speed horses, not one and a half)
My grandfather told me when I was 10 or 11 that speed kills and you need three to make a barbecue. I am now 53 and apparently still don't get it.
Very frustrating, but one of the great lessons we are getting out of the Handigambling series. The knowledge we gain from these exercises aren't "trick plays" or "voodoo" - they are reinforcements of the facts we already know, they happen day in and day out, over and over.
Here is what we got right:
Rebellion - here is where playing SA regularly is an advantage, the regulars know that the 1 post is a death trap, and once again it was.
Siren Lure - form was going backwards. You have to get some sign of progression from the regression before you can consider him. So all correctly made him a throw out.
Soul City Slew - had been thumped in his last two tries on the course, not to mention a 1 for 6 record on turf and the fact that he was badly beaten by Rebellion and Tropic Storm. Another correct throw out.
Get Funky - was absolutely live and everyone knew it. Some got torched in their exotics by "trying to beat him" because of low odds. With his record on the course and his book of races it was not exactly a stretch to say he was going to hit the board. He did.
Ten Meropa - was one of those that you had to include somewhere because of his easy win on the course. He was the token three year old so he required some downgrading. The others were just too good for him.
Easy on the Eyes - appeared overmatched, the fall made it a moot point.
Five Star Thief - an early scratch.
One Union - had a 5/7 ITM on turf and looked like a solid under, he was finishing 3rd.
California Flag - we pretty much covered him above.
Tropic Storm - a race day scratch.
Matto Mondo - was really taking a shot, there is no way to know how he will run in North America, and a start against this caliber of horses was probably a bridge too far.
Desert Code was regressing in his last two, has speed but not enough to reach the front. He was an under include based upon his previous downhill runs.
So if we paid attention the right construct should have been:
Get Funky and California Flag
over
Rebellion, Get Funky, Ten Meropa, California Flag, One Union, Desert Code
A $24 trifecta wager that paid $735 and a $48 superfecta wager that returned $2,875. Of course hindsight is always 20/20 but this was one we should have had.
Posted by: Steve T. on September 25, 2008 at 08:48 AM
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I was spammed here last night (am I on the "Dan Illman Enemies List"??), so will re-post the gist of my comments.
Uncle Steve,
Good luck with your steward's decision on Handigambling 103...I prefer "Feats of Strength"!!
PPs of the Saturday OSA WAYI stakes for the Breeders' Cup Dreaming contest are available:
TheZenyatta: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_125601.pdf
AncntTtl-G1: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_125602.pdf
OakLeaf-G1: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/baffert_125607.pdf
YlwRibbn-G1: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_125639.pdf
TheTiago: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/dougoneill_125654.pdf
Belmont and Sunday's PPs should hopefully be available by this evening.
Ascot PPs....HELP!! (Johnnyz??? Dan???) I generally use AtTheRaces to watch the video replays and also use pedigree (RF has been a successful tool for me in many of the EURO stakes, especially for the 2yos.)
cayman01,
I updated the contest Leaderboard to include your GREAT PICK yesterday!!:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL5nDMm2cvAzCg&gid=2
Good luck today!!!
Posted by: Alan on September 25, 2008 at 09:01 AM
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Forgot to mention...
There is a Nor'easter passing through Maryland later today/tomight that is heading straight toward Elmont, New York. Handicap for Saturday's races at the Big Sandy accordingly...
Posted by: Alan on September 25, 2008 at 09:29 AM
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Thank you Alan. talk to you and the rest of the gang on tomorrow night's chat!
Steve T.,
Nice to see your human! How would you have structured the wagers for Ex, Tri, and Super
with $50 limit? I ask because although I had the winner I completely missed the exotics by poor ticket structure ( my HUGE bugaboo).
Posted by: cayman01 on September 25, 2008 at 10:49 AM
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Cayman01,
Nice pick with California Flag and nice move forward in the contest standings.
Posted by: Mike Romeo on September 25, 2008 at 10:55 AM
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Alan-
I'm back with my Oaktree Picks-
Lady's Secret-HYSTERICAL LADY-not much of a price but may wire these and zenyatta may have too much to do late
Ancient Title-COST OF FREEDOM-Sadler claim 2 back, he's 27% 2nd off claim, and has started 2 horses 2nd off claim in Graded Stakes and they both finished in the money-should get some value here
Oak Leaf-EMPRESSIVE LADY is one of the horses here who has a chance to improve going long, and again I'm anticipating a fair price
Yellow Ribbon-HIGH HEAL SNEAKERS-3rd north american start, 3rd off layoff, and inside speed-should be a big price
Goodwood-SPIRIT ONE saved the day for me on Million day and is prime power top by 11 points. No reason to get off him here.
Posted by: Stephen Taylor on September 25, 2008 at 11:40 AM
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steve t:
i re-read your thoughts about the Morvich yesterday, and i agree with your premise that"speed kills". the thing is, that in the 8th yesterday, CF looked like cheap speed, and while he is definitely fast, he was in against a group that personally was sure would be able to run him down. i think yesterday's race was unforseeable, at least the outcome, as there were at least 2 horses (1 and the 4) who seemed more than capable of tracking him down. it was a huge effort, and he clearly made the lead as you mentioned, but i still think that he raced way, way, way over his previous efforts. that is what makes racing, i guess, but i thought he was bound to get caught.
todd
Posted by: todd on September 25, 2008 at 12:05 PM
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Mathieu,
"Pro-Ride is 87% dirt! Why isn't Santa Anita shouting this from the rooftops for the anti synthetic crowd to absorb?"
Here's the flip side to your statement:
You're saying that since Santa Anita is 87% dirt, those who despise synthetics should embrace it because so little separates it from dirt. If that's true, why 13% non-dirt at all? Why not just have 100% dirt? If ProRide is so similar, why bother with the change, especially when those in charge already know that dirt works with no problem and that the majority of the public wanted it after last year's problems?
Handicapping-wise, you're probably right that SA's ProRide will be similar to the old dirt surface... but be very careful not to assume that the anti-synthetic crowd's main beef is centered around handicapping or gambling. I think that's a false characterization for many of us, and I find it belittling, almost insulting, when I hear people say that we just don't want to take the time to figure out a new surface. I'm not saying YOU did that or intended your statement to be taken that way. But speaking for myself, handicapping and wagering has nothing to do with it. Never has.
How much could that 13%-worth of that artificial stuff be promoting safety? If it's so close to dirt, what was/is the point? Is 87% dirt THAT much safer than 100% dirt? It seems silly to think so. If it is, show me the proof. I would hope Santa Anita at least HAD proof before installing it... I say that in a joking manner, because I know they didn't. IMO, it's perfectly fair to question the management of SA and the CHRB. What happens when someone made such a crucial all-changing decision like this in the business or political world with no factual foundation to support it?
Posted by: C on September 25, 2008 at 12:16 PM
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Thank you Mike Romeo and larryk.
Posted by: cayman01 on September 25, 2008 at 12:36 PM
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Well, what with the scratches of two of the other speeds, California Flag proved me 100% dead wrong! But my bet was toast by that point anyway, and I was thrilled to see Cambiocorsa's little brother run so well.
Did anybody else think the main track played ominously like a bad synthetic, Keeneland-like surface? It seemed like nobody was winning on the lead and the outside was the only place to be. Hope I'm wrong about this.
Posted by: Kyri on September 25, 2008 at 12:46 PM
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First couple of picks for weekend:
Lady's Secret: HYSTERICALADY.
Annie.......LONE SPEED!!!
Oak Leaf: TORO BONITA, speed to close into, nice 6 furlong works for 2yo.
Posted by: cayman01 on September 25, 2008 at 12:55 PM
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Alan, here are the Santa Anita picks for Saturday:
Lady's Secret: Hystericalady-short price, but bigger than Zenyatta. I can't see both of them losing. Maybe she'll like this stuff since it's 87% dirt.
Ancient Title: Cost of Freedom-nice draw, good price, good works, 4-4 at distance.
Yellow Ribbon: Solva-should be a nice price, only a few lengths behind Black Monba last two, hopefully can sit off High Heel Sneakers and get first run.
Oak Leaf: Palacio de Amor-wire job threat.
Goodwood: Surf Cat-considered a few here, and I'm not a big fan of his, but three back he was on the lead, no pace too back, too far last one. Price should be solid too. He should go to the dirt mile though, even 9 might be stretching it in terms of his best distance.
Posted by: Greg on September 25, 2008 at 12:56 PM
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A quick observation on the Morvich.
I was shocked to see Talamo win that race on a speed horse. As he proved in the first race (24 Sept. 08 SA #1), Talamo and a horse on the lead is not the best combination. But then I looked a bit further at the chart and saw Koriner was the trainer. Earlier in the summer, I remember Talamo absolutely butchering some front end rides on Koriner mounts. From what I heard, Koriner was not pleased with Talamo at all. So seeing Talamo on a Koriner speed horse has led me to a new angle to check out for future races. If Talamo shows up in the irons on a front running horse trained by Koriner, the mount is likely a live one if the horse is a seasoned, calm horse (i.e., Talamo is just along for the ride and will not be asked to settle him down during the race – just as it appeared was the case with California Flag). If it’s a head strong horse that needs some gentle restraining or “guidance,” Talamo does not appear to be the one for the job.
Now if I could have only come up with this angle before the race.
Midwest Ed
Posted by: Ed on September 25, 2008 at 01:16 PM
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Was that a classic race in Bel One?
Mr. B said "I don't think you're allowed to run a 3-horse entry and use one of them to run interference on the odds-on favoritre."
Oh, really?
Before the gates opened, the entry at 4-1 was a inconceivable overlay, it even went to 9/2 as the Two went to 4/5 as they approached the gate.
Of course, after the gates opened the entry falls to 5/2. Do you trust the integrity of the parimutuel system? A better question is, why should we?
I'd love to know what the safeguards are? To whom would that question be addressed given there is no central authority? Who is the controlling authority?
Can anyone answer these simple questions? I can't.
Before the gates opened I might have nominated the entry for overlay of the young meeting, but after the gates opened he was just a simple, slightly-above fair-odds play.
Should the entry have been taken down?
Probably, but thankfully not, given that it's a dicey situation with the winner being very likely the best, anyway, without the interference.
The stewards didn't even mess with it. 3rd rail, I guess.
Rootin' for Prado to bring home the other side of the double for me.
Posted by: slewofdamascus on September 25, 2008 at 01:20 PM
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geowarrier,
Welcome to Formblog! I enjoyed reading your post; unfortunately, many will not see it because you posted it on the 9/22 thread and we are already on the 9/24 thread. I just happened to see it because I went back looking for something. Try to post on the current thread.
I will try to answer your question on the hyphenated numbers after the odds. The first number is apparently based on comparisons of same distance races on that day (the higher, the better). The second number is the track variance(how fast or slow the track was supposedly playing). The higher the number, the slower the track. I think that is right; if not, I'm sure someone will comment. I don't pay much attention to those numbers, myself. They kind of have been superseded by the Beyer number (the bold number to the left of the running lines). The higher, the better. Although, there has been some controversy on those numbers as well. I do look at that number because I feel they do give kind of a comparison of the horses in the race.
Having owned a few claiming horses some time ago, I sympathize with your situation. The claiming game is not really good for people who fall in love with their horses because as you say, they are always up for sale.
I remember I claimed a son of Affirmed for $4,000. In the race I claimed him out of, he ran like his daddy, came from dead last and flew by all the other horses. I was so excited and of course, fell in love with him. My trainer wanted to put him in a $6.5K claiming race and I really didn't want to lose him, but what else can you do. Of course, he was claimed out of that race and the new owners took him to Remington Park and won $20K claiming races with him. There was nothing wrong with the horse's legs, he just had an entrapped epiglottis which was quite easily fixed. Oh, well.
But, your idea of some not for sale races for claiming types would be nice. I had no idea they have those in Europe.
After all this, I hope you find this thread. lol I think I'll post a note on that thread, pointing you to this one just in case.
Annie
Posted by: Annie on September 25, 2008 at 01:26 PM
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I wanted to add something. The reason it matters, 4-1 as opposed to 5/2, is that I played the horse to win (and based on the complete lack of action in any point in the betting, that number felt stable to me, and so the late drop is even more suspiciouis, in my [paranoid] mind).
At 5/2, or the prospect of it, I'd have played the exacta straight. At 4-1, I'm not greedy, I'm going to take the overlay, lest the favorite not run second (for exacta purposes).
I wanted to point out the sort of problems that arise, from a money management perspective, when the odds shift dramatically after the gates open.
Posted by: slewofdamascus on September 25, 2008 at 01:29 PM
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Nice result!
Posted by: slewofdamascus on September 25, 2008 at 01:33 PM
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Is it still a requirement for California tracks to have synthetic surfaces??? If so, then is this Pro-Ride surface (87% sand) a simple means to effectively go back to a dirt surface but still call it a synthetic track???
Isn't this a ton of dough to spend to come right back to where they started?? And, what would the track be like if they had just taken part of what they spent and improved the dirt track maintenance???
You gotta admit that our industry is full of the "best and brightest" minds within the entire worlds of operations and marketing....
Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on September 25, 2008 at 01:53 PM
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My picks for Saturday:
Clement Hirsch (there's too many races witht his name): SPRING HOUSE
Lady's Secret: Don't make me pick just one! I love HYSTERICALADY AND ZENYATTA, but I'll go with ZENYATTA, by a nose!
Ancient Title: COST OF FREEDOM
Oak Leaf: BLACK MAGIC MAMA
Yellow Ribbon: BLACK MAMBA
Goodwood: Top 3...WELL ARMED, SLEW's TIZNOW (this is a very good horse) and INFORMED.
How hilarious it's gonna be if INFORMED wins. "DAN WHO? (Baffert)" let him go for $25,000!!! I would love to see INFORMED win, just for that reason. I should have tried to claim this horse myself. I was shocked when dropped down to $25,000.
Regarding yesterday: Why was VULCAN such a short price favorite? What happened to VULCAN? He didn't do a thing.
Posted by: Mike S on September 25, 2008 at 02:01 PM
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I am posting this early because many have BC contests coming up.
I will actually post Friday later.
SANTA ANITA – Saturday (09-27-2008)
Race 1
SIX PACK ABS has been working like a banshee, including the fastest 6F work so far on the new surface, a 1:10/4 which followed a 5F work of :58/4. Gomez is the new rider, team is 32%. TIME TO GET EVEN is coming off of a 15 month layoff, but the 1:11 work says he is ready to roll. Anything close to his previous and he wins with ease. MEN ONLY is always in the hunt and the :46 work gives me confidence that he will be there again.
Six Pack Abs
Time to Get Even
Men Only
Dr. Derango: Now that WEEKEND ESCAPE is in a realistic class level and not running against Delta Storm, Black Seventeen and Sailors Sunset he could easily return to his winning form two back. Like that Valdivia is back aboard, and the team is 20% with an ROI of $13.60!!
Race 2
Tough race, a field of two year olds in a one mile turf race where no one has ever run on the grass. RAIKKONEN has the pedigree to run well on grass, first run he had the misfortune to run into Midshipman, very nice works and the trainer is 25% on first turf. WORTH REPEATING is by Giant’s Causeway, runs for Mandella and has had trouble in both of his races. ORTHODOX has been steadily progressing and showed some speed, which not many here have.
Raikkonen
Worth Repeating
Orthodox
Dr. Derango: With this being a first time event for all, and the lack of anyone who is racing at or above par could create a serious pay. JOKING SAM is by Johar so the surface and distance should not be a problem, and he too shows a very nice progression in his three races. Rosario aboard for McAnally. I feel pretty good about this one, of course I felt good about Outer Space too…
Race 3
OYSTER CAT will be the deserving favorite, running very well in his debut against Midshipman. Has the best speed fig by far, nice works and a 50% team. LAUNCHING PAD also had a nice debut and I expect significant improvement in his second start. Has the live work set and gets visiting John Velazquez in the saddle for Jeff Mullins. I could be underestimating this one. PAYMENT APPROVED closed 6 lengths in the stretch and then flattened out – these are the types that have big progressions in their second start. Rosario is aboard for his second start and he has two nice works on the track.
Oyster Cat
Launching Pad
Payment Approved
Dr. Derango: An intriguing first time starter is HIPTOPIA, by Awesome Again out of Tersa. Tersa is the dam of Rock Hard Ten. Awesome Again’s are a little slow to develop so this may be a stretch but he certainly has a nice pedigree.
Race 4
Tough group in a short field, and all have earned their chops. RED GIANT came back from an 11 month layoff and promptly ran his best race ever, a pretty healthy endorsement. Think he will like the SoCal turf, especially with the rail at 0 feet. Velasquez and Pletcher are the team. I have no idea what Frankel was thinking throwing OUT OF CONTROL into a dirt race – and a dirt race with Curlin! But back on the grass he is very dangerous and 10F is his distance. Gomez is the rider; the team is 42% at Santa Anita. SPRING HOUSE is in a groove, his last five races have been very good (other than Dubai). There is no question that he can go 10F, in fact it might be a little short for him.
Red Giant
Out of Control
Spring House
Dr. Derango: A short field with a bunch of favorites? I smell big bucks with no whammies. YOU GOT ME ROCKING was just a little short at 11F, so 10F would be better right? Rosario aboard for Mike Mitchell, a 33% proposition.
Race 5
The Zenyatta Stakes. Although she will be the heavy favorite, there is nothing to say she will drop a bomb. Here last three works were bullets and she always does what she needs to win. HYSTERICALADY is the other obvious choice but her record on synthetics is a notch below her runs on dirt. She needs to run a wire job to win and unless she gets way out there, Zenyatta will close her out. WAKE UP MAGGIE showed a love of synthetic tracks, winning easily in her first run. Always have to look out for one that pops up and runs that well on a new surface.
Zenyatta
Hysterical Lady
Wake Up Maggie
Dr. Derango: Another short field with heavy favorites. SANTA TERESITA has a textbook progression from her first run. Throw out her last, Desormeaux rode her like a mule, from… the 1 post. She was a respectable 2nd to Zenyatta in the Milady and could easily improve to be a force in this race.
Race 6
Oh my, my boys and girls this is one serious sprint race. STREET BOSS has 6 wins and a place in his last 7 starts, and his last three were wins in two grade 1’s and a Grade 3. Won last out from the rail, can you say new track record?? IN SUMMATION would have beaten Street Boss in the Bing Crosby but for a knucklehead ride by Nakatani. His synthetic record is 7-4-2-0 so he could easily win this. If you get any odds at all, play him! COST OF FREEOM just freaked last out, running a 110 in cruise control. Last work was a 1:11/1. These are the best he has faced but a repeat of his last could make this very interesting.
Street Boss
In Summation
Cost of Freedom
Dr. Derango: DELTA STORM is an old codger who seems to have found the fountain of youth. He runs on anything and his last was a very nice win over Black Seventeen and Sailor’s Sunset. This surface could be a perfect fir, and if it is look out!
Race 7
Enough of this flat racing, time for a quick trip down the hill. For an added degree of difficulty, the majority of the field has not only never run on the course, they have never run on turf. BANNER LODGE should love this course and he is deadly when he rates. Last work was a smokin’ 1:11/2. Team is 32%. OSCAR THE MAYOR dramatically improved in his first turf run, has a bullet last work and picks up the king of turf, Victor Espinoza. CADILLAC finished third in his only try on the downhill, but it was against Ron Bob and Dave and Black Astor, two VERY good downhill runners. With the lack of turf and downhill experience he could just get up and win.
Banner Lodge
Oscar the Mayor
Cadillac
Dr. Derango: The downhill races are my favorites, it is a crazy race, and I like crazy. IN THE FORECAST looks like a throw out, I mean he just broke his maiden at Del Mar in an MCL-50 right? BUT, he is by Yankee Victor and they love this course, I mean they really love this course. You will get some serious odds here, if you are brave go for it!
Race 8
This is a case of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, STARDOM BOUND is too tough and can easily progress off of her last. She is one of the best, if not the best, 2 year old fillies in the country. Her last race was even better than it looks on paper; she used a Zenyatta move to just cruise on by. The issue is who will come in behind her and the answer is “all of the above”. PALACIO DE AMOR is my second choice, she got passed by Stardom Bound but didn’t die, I think her upside is significant. EMPRESSIVE LADY has the pedigree to easily get a route and think she will appreciate the calmer pace.
Stardom Bound
Palacio de Amor
Empressive Lady
Dr. Derango: Actually there is a sneaker I like, MALUSITA. She only missed by a closing 1 ¾ lengths in the Sorrento at 112-1. I wish Rosario was still aboard, but…
Race 9
Am really surprised there are no east coast horses in the field – it seems like a run over the track before the BC would be a good idea. BLACK MAMBA, like her namesake is deadly at 10F and her form keeps improving. Gomez is 2/2 on her and I think that will go to 3/3. WAIT A WHILE is back on track and she won this race in 2006. She is vulnerable to a close though, which makes me put her second. I CAN SEE really took it up a notch last out finishing a closing second in the Grade 1 Mabee against Black Mamba.
Black Mamba
Wait A While
I Can See
Dr. Derango: MARZELLINE why can’t you be true, oh Marzelline why can’t you be true, you done started doing those things you used to do. Her last race was really, really good. Tyler Baze is the perfect fit for her too. This could be a deranged pay for a deranged handicapper.
Race 10
I am REALLY surprised that there are no east coast horses here, I mean wouldn’t you like to know if your horse can handle the track BEFORE you run in the Breeders Cup?? What the hell do I know. I think WELL ARMED is way too tough at this distance, and I really like that he came back from Dubai and ran two huge races. Strangely MAST TRACK has never run 9F, but it should be ideal – remember, he beat Go Between at 10F in the Hollywood Gold Cup. Here is a weird one, TIAGO never works fast because Shirrefs never works him fast, so look at his last two works, what does it mean? I am going to go on the assumption that the horse did it and hand on for the ride. The Pro Ride surface is the closest thing to dirt, so he could pound one home.
Well Armed
Mast Track
Tiago
Dr. Derango: SLEW’A TIZNOW is a 3 ½ year old Tiznow, and we all know what they do from here. He came back from his layoff and fired with the best race of his career. Could he improve 7 or 8 points? Yeah I think he can. Should get double digit odds.
Race 11
Damn, fun time is over, sigh. I dedicate this pick to my wife – DONTTELLMEWHATTODO had a very sharp debut taking second even though he was wide throughout. LOVE APPLE also had a nice debut, closing well to finish a close second. The Lion Heart’s have been knocking the cover off of the ball. HOT SUMMER BREEZE gets run number two for Kathy Walsh and by the looks of that last work will like Santa Anita a lot more than Del Mar.
Donttellmewhattodo
Love Apple
Summer Breeze
Dr. Derango: Taking a firster in this field is a dangerous thing to do, well Danger is my middle name, and I am going to take Strapless – A homebred Forestry filly who popped a very nice work first out at Santa Anita, gets Joel Rosario and about 30/1 odds…
Posted by: Steve T. on September 25, 2008 at 02:02 PM
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Mathieu:
Its actually 87%natural substances, which is sand.
I looked at I believe the same article and it said natural substances, which then a little later sand.
I'm with you. Shout it.
This stuff looks like the real deal. It will be interesting to see how well it works later on and how the jocks ride the surface. ANd from what it looks the management is gonna keep the heavy equipment to a minimum.
Speed does kill, and I forgot
to factor in before the race, was busy with stuff. But it is lesson number 1.
Tony Kelso:
I really shied away from Sadlers horses because of the steriod issue and both his favs did not win. Maybe that wasn't the issue, and maybe the older claimers needed it more than the higher class horses. However, they both didn't win. Just some food for thought.
Posted by: larryk on September 25, 2008 at 02:04 PM
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Gold Cup Contest Play:
WANDERIN BOY-wasn't running all that well the end of last year, but seems to be back on top of his game. Obviously, being $100 behind in the challenge, Curlin isn't playable and two guys with a history of being able to pull off big-time upsets, Zito and Jerkens have horses in here, but I'm not sure Jerken's horse can get the distance.
Posted by: Stephen L. Taylor on September 25, 2008 at 02:19 PM
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C,
I am the one who did that on the other board. At some point you get tired of the PolyCrap, Phony Ride, all the other pejorative crap. My point to them was simple - don't like it, THEN DON'T PLAY IT!! Sorry but I like synthetic tracks - I don't like the politics that forced it, but I think Pro Ride is probably going to be the gold standard. I continue to find it interesting that the vast majority of the comments about synthetic tracks are from the east coast - which has dirt tracks, why continually disparage synthetic tracks? Or say "gee I really hope the Breeders Cup fall apart to show the world what PolyCrap is really all about" I know you didn't say that, but it was said and it is ignorant! Let's hope the annual showcase turns to graham cracker dust because you don't like synthetic tracks. Like we are on a PR roll anyway. I don't believe synthetics are even in the top 100 of racing's problems, damn we have bigger fish to fry.
Posted by: Steve T. on September 25, 2008 at 02:21 PM
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Cayman,
OK, don't rub it in! lol
Annie
Posted by: Annie on September 25, 2008 at 02:27 PM
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Good afternoon, all....
Alan, or another great fount of wisdom, how does one find even the entries for the Ascot races that are part of this weekend's WAYI contest?
Fuggedaboud the PPs!
Thanks for pointing me in the right direction.
Katieattherail
Posted by: Katieattherail on September 25, 2008 at 02:31 PM
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Here's a dumb question...why isn't the Clement Hirsch Turf a WAYI race?
Posted by: Greg on September 25, 2008 at 02:43 PM
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Todd,
If you look at my post mortem bet construct, it took into account both scenarios - CF loose on the lead or Get Funky closing him out. Rebellion was doomed by his post and One Union wasn't strong enough to win. That left two possible winners and they came in 1-2. The point was that CF was the lone speed after the defection of Tropic Storm and he warranted being one of the scenario winners.
Posted by: Steve T. on September 25, 2008 at 02:44 PM
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Blue Horseshoe,
Yes the requirement is still in place. Pro Ride is 87% sand which are coated with a polymer to let the water run off (like Teflon). I didn't see anything yesterday that concerned me about the way it was playing but have started a spreadsheet to compare results with last years to see if there are any differences in fractions, running types or field distribution.
Posted by: Steve T. on September 25, 2008 at 02:58 PM
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What made California Flag's performance even more puzzling to me is that the second place horse in his last, Shadow of Illinois, could only muster a 4th place in a 40K claimer earlier on the opening card. To me that meant he was cheap speed because he was facing lesser. Still, wire jobs happen all the time and I was bothered less by his winning than I was with One Union's inability to get by Get Fynky for 2nd. He would have paid nicely to place, they both would have, with the favorite out.
Posted by: jim tully on September 25, 2008 at 03:09 PM
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Slew,
So when an infraction costs you, you leave messages for the stewards? But when it benefits you, you leave the stewards alone?
Posted by: jim tully on September 25, 2008 at 03:16 PM
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Stevet and Blue Horseshoe ands whomever:
I'm for AW/SYN and have been for a long time. I was in track in HS and College and its a big difference between cinder(aka dirt)and AW/SYN.
My joints and ankles hurt less and less shin splints and others.
The difference and dirt is the factor that with the addition of the polymer and fibers, it lets the track drain when rain hurts you don't have the sloppy mess of Monmouth and other tracks.
And less scratches, higher handle. How do we hate when have to rehandicapp when scratches hit?
Posted by: larryk on September 25, 2008 at 03:26 PM
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Jim, the circumstances are completely different.
I call the stewards when I think something nefarious or untoward has occurred.
This situation is so bizzare - I've never seen anything remotely similar. In looking at the replay, the jockey who came over appeared to do it without the slightest idea that Prado was there.
So where on the face of it, it's suspicious, the actual viewing of it does not support that, it looked like an accident.
In the cases where I complained, I thought it looked obvious that something did, in fact, occur that was nefarious. The nefarious act, in the first case, turned out to be the gate not opening for a split second, and not the rider holding back at the start. In that case, there was a very suspicious late bet on the other speed, who ended up going wire to wire.
There was a whole sequence to it, and this is something entirely different.
That said, it's not unlikely for me to call the stewards even if I have benefitted, believe it or not.
The simple reason for that is, the money would have already been paid out, I could use the fact that I won to my advantage in my argument, and so, yes, I am self-serving, Jim, but I'm not a hypocrite.
In review, the winner would have won the race anyway, Jim, so that even money shot was just another underlay. I'm sure the stewards considered the idea, and agreed.
Posted by: slewofdamascus on September 25, 2008 at 03:49 PM
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Katie,
Try this site:
http://www.bhb-weatherbys.racingadmin.co.uk/ascot/runners.html
It's from the Ascot Racing website:
http://www.ascot.co.uk/racinf/racinf_run.html
Alternatively, you can go to www.attheraces.com and go to the Saturday Ascot entries:
http://www.attheraces.com/fixtures.aspx?date=2008-09-27&ref=&nav=racecards&sub=Sat+27th
Posted by: Alan on September 25, 2008 at 04:00 PM
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Steve T and Larryk,
I'm with you guys and I'm very interested in seeing how Pro-Ride plays out. I'm rooting for it, not against it... To me, if it mimics a dirt surface (form wise) but provides a more consistent surface through weather, etc and is thus a safer surface then it sounds good to me... Time will tell...
Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on September 25, 2008 at 04:20 PM
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Slew,
About your reference to quick odds changes. From what I've heard alot of over seas and casino money is not sent until very late ( last minute or so) prior to racetime. Maybe someone else could chime in on this. Usually thisa is a considerable chunk of change and could cause odds variations. this has happened to me several times before as well.
Posted by: billg on September 25, 2008 at 04:36 PM
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Alan,
Here is the best I can do for free Euro entrys and form sheets.
Juddmonte Royal Lodge S:http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0,12495,281510,00.html
Meon Valley Fillie M:http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0,12495,281511,00.html
Queen Elizabeth II S:http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0,12495,281513,00.html
These are quite different than pp's. Quick tutorial, lots of good info in the Ascot box upper right. Click horse's name,gives you a page showing past races. Click on a date and it will give you a page with race comments and, race analysis.
If you click a trainer, a page will come up showing win % the last 14 days and the season. Same with the jockey.
These are the best I am aware of for free. http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/news.sd?psection=racingpost.co.uk&page=News&category=Top%20Stories this site has form cards that alittle more detailed, but you have to be a member and deposit money to view as they charge, I think about .40 each race.
Another usefull free tool is speed ratings, that won't be available for the 3 WAYI untill about 4:00 am est, and as you mentioned ATR has a good video library, find at: http://www.attheraces.com/index.aspx
Hope I didn't confuse anyone, went pretty fast. Anyway on the form cards just click around and you will find lots of info.
Good Luck!
Posted by: Johnny Z on September 25, 2008 at 04:36 PM
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Timing is everything in this game, and I guess for Forgive Your Sins, that time will have to come later.
She was a hopeless 21-1 in the SA 2nd, finishing last behind a 1/5 winner.
I felt quite confident going in that this was the 2nd best horse in the race, if not the best. You would need to see her first race to understand that opinion, but I'm confident that once seen, that opinion would not be a lonely one. She almost flew over the rail in her debut when she was absolutely coming out of her shoes after the leaders, and after landing on the good side of the track, she proceeded to get back to business and re-rally from the inside to win going away. Words don't do it justice, because the power and speed displayed was noteworthy. The twist is that she did it against Penn National types, and she got a lowish equi number (too low).
Now, fast forward to today. What does Solis do with her? He rushes her up into a speed duel - on the fence! Hello? What does she predictably do?
Looks like she shied, I'll have to see the head-on.
This race will be as quickly forgotten as her maiden win. Yet, I still have faith that what I saw in the first race is but a taste of things to come. I hope this encourages others to at least look at the first one (and if you think I'm nuts, tell me). I think she has an opportunity to score at a very nice price if properly spotted in the next. Wouldn't mind seeing different riding tactics employed.
Posted by: slewofdamascus on September 25, 2008 at 04:49 PM
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Bel 9th today: Mott just can't get a break, I feel his pain, as I needed him (p-3, $180) when my other two in there were having translation issues (3,7) ("when you put a foreign jockey with an American horse, there's BOUND to be trouble"), but that's the way it goes.
I put a saver on the winner, Musca (whose last race was abysmal), when I finally discovered the hidden class drop which made her look a lot better today (don't be fooled). If there was anything decent in that race - a big if - it had to be Mott's horse, who closed like a real racehorse.
Mott will start heating up.
NOW.
[god dammit!]
Posted by: slewofdamascus on September 25, 2008 at 05:04 PM
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What happened to Bustin Stones? Is he injured again? He was not entered for the Vosburgh on Saturday.
Posted by: Michael B. Farber on September 25, 2008 at 05:11 PM
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Here are some more FORMBLOG Derby Dreaming contest PPs for this weekend's races:
JkyClbGC-G1 DRF: http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08BELJCGoldcup.pdf
JkyClbGC-G1 BRIS: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_125727.pdf
Goodwood-G1 DRF: http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08OSAgoodwoodstk.pdf
Norfolk-G1: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/dougoneill_125758.pdf
Please specify your selections as "Contest Picks" to make my life easier. You can also email your selections to Formblogger@gmail.com. Thank you very much!!
Dan,
Any luck finding a poor desperate contest administrator some PPs for the Ascot races???
Thanks!!!
Posted by: Alan on September 25, 2008 at 05:27 PM
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OK. The Morvich...Deep breath....
If one looks at Tropic Storm's PPs going into the Morvich he only lead at the first call ONCE sprinting in past eight sprint races, and never at 6f or shorter. Tropic Storm also lead at the second call only ONCE over the same eight sprints (it was the same race). TS was also cutting back from a 2 turn mile to a sprint. Why would it have mattered much to California Flag if Tropic Storm was in the race or not?
Asking Tropic Storm to keep CF "honest" was like asking a government regulator to watch a bank president. Tropic Storm was gonna see CF's booty all the way around the track unless CF blew the start.
I DO agree that when Tropic Storm scratched CF was nearly a lock to hit the exacta, because there was noooo speed left in the race besides Dersert Code, who was suspect. So the betting decisions, as outlined by Steve T. were very logical with the scratch of Tropic Storm. But by nearly every standard CF was very LOOSE speed, and that could (should?) have been recognized by everyone on this blog, TS or no TS. That doesn't mean he had to win, but a loose speed in a turf sprint on firm turf will win around 35% to 40% of all races. CF's fair odds, considering his class level, were around 8-1 to 10-1 in my book. Everything else was gravy.
Posted by: tony kelso on September 25, 2008 at 05:32 PM
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Foreign horse ratings (ASCOT meeting):
Two days out racing data for all the main meetings is posted at RACING POST:
One has to sign up by providing an e-mail address, etc. but it is free. The Racing Post Ratings (RPRs, like in the DRF for Euros) for the entered horses last few races are under CARDS....follow these directions to get to the RPRs:
(drag your mouse) Choose RACING (upper left on the Racing Post MAIN PAGE)...
Then select CARDS (Saturday 27 September)......ASCOT should come up and the entire racing card (including handicap races, which we don't really care about) will be shown on the left side of the browser.
If desired, it is possible to look at the "big three stakes races" individually by "right double-clicking" on them.
If you want to look at a horse's preparation in a particular race "double-click" on that horse's name.
Posted by: tony kelso on September 25, 2008 at 05:47 PM
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Steve T,
Any chance you could add if the winners have had a work over this new surface? Might come in handy in the early part of the meet.
Annie
Posted by: Annie on September 25, 2008 at 06:07 PM
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Average Racing Post Ratings (RPRs) for Saturday's big races at ASCOT, including the last 10 years.
For point of interest I will subtract 5 points OFF the RPRs to get an estimated BEYER fig.
Royal Logde (Gr. 2, 2yo colts, One Mile)
Avg. RPR = 111.2 Estimated Beyer = 106
Fillies Mile (Gr. 1, 2yo fillies, one mile)
Avg. RPR = 113.1 Estimated Beyer = 108 (note one winner was really low so I took her out of the data set).
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (3up, one mile)
Avg. RPR = 127.3 Estimated Beyer = 122
Posted by: tony kelso on September 25, 2008 at 06:10 PM
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Michael,
Bustin Stones will be trained up to the Breeders Cup.
Posted by: Ivan on September 25, 2008 at 07:08 PM
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Alan, for the contest, I'll take Mambo in Seattle in the Jockey Club and Street Hero in the Norfolk Stakes.
Thanks, Greg
Posted by: Greg on September 25, 2008 at 07:18 PM
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Iron Maidens for Saturday's two year old stakes races (Santa Anita and Turfway) are now available at:
http://www.thoroughbredink.com
Posted by: Laura on September 25, 2008 at 07:42 PM
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Random thought: it's kind of silly since we're a month away and there's no solid reason to think this matchup is even happening for sure, BUT... almost everyone seems to think the Classic is a match race. Big Brown-Curlin, Curlin-Big Brown, as if they're the only 2 horses in the race.
Here's my mind-bet:
I'm not going there. Why can't they both get beat? There's some reason to think either is vulnerable. I have a feeling a real gypsy is going to light it up. Just a mind bet for now.
BillG,
You may be right about that. I just know that the tote system cannot possibly be updated in real-time. There are literally tens of thousands of handle sources being fed into the tote and (I would guess/assume) the system probably re-calculates the odds every minute or so by buffering the new bets which were placed since the last update... and don't forget that the last few minutes are typically the busiest. I know a lot of people want to think something fishy is going on, but it's usually more a matter of how computers and telecommunication lines actually work than big late bets being laid down.
Steve,
As for the Breeders Cup, I think BC Ltd has already killed it, or at least wounded it, by getting away from the original concept. My gut tells me that there will be some disappointment with the handle this year, even if the skies are clear. It may be up from last year, but I don't think it'll meet their expectations... whether or not they admit that will be another story. I'm surprised at the lack of buzz so far... and notice how the new divisions (marathon, turf sprint, filly juve turf, so on) are not being talked about at all. That tells me they've spread out way too far and just can't cover each and every division. I suspect that nobody, not even the beat writers at the Form, can name the top 5 contenders in each of these new divisions off the top of their heads without consulting their records. Dan, can you prove me wrong? No peeking.
Posted by: C on September 25, 2008 at 07:52 PM
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A little off handicappiong topic, maybe some of the owners out there would be interested, so I'm posting this.
I came across a nice looking mare with a decent pedigree and thought I'd mention her in case anyone is looking for a broodmare. Please note I'm not in anyway affiliated with the sellers, farm, owner, etc. I don't even know them. I received a bloodstock email advertizement and, being my normal curious self, had to check it out. I became interested in this particular mare because I liked her physical type.
Lily Martini (Mr. Jolie - Snow Colony, by Pleasant Colony) is a pretty dark brown mare that appears stamina oriented. She earned $36K in 10 starts, finishing out of the money once. She has a 2008 filly by her side (by Greatness) and is in foal to Proud Accolade for 2009.
Here's a link to photo of Lilly Martini: http://www.flyinglionfarm.com/horses/lily-martini/lily-martini.html
Here's a link to her foal, which include pictures of the dam: http://www.flyinglionfarm.com/horses/great-martini/great-martini.html
Her sire, Mr. Jolie, is direct tail line to Man O'War, who also shows up through her second dam sire, Hoist The Flag. She has inbreeding top and bottom to Alibhai and bottom inbreeding to Ribot. Her fourth dam is Blue Hen Victorinna (great grand dam of Deputy Minister) and fifth dam is also a blue hen. She is an outcross for practically every popular sire line, including Northern Dancer (however, Nearctic is her third dam sire), Mr. Prospector, Seattle Slew, Storm Bird, Damascus, etc.
Here's a link to her pedigree query page: http://www.pedigreequery.com/lily+martini
This mare perked my interest and I think she'd be a good investment at $15K. I don't expect she'll throw world beaters, but a statebred or grade 3 winning foal wouldn't be out of her range.
Unfortunately, I don't have room in the backyard for her, lol.
Posted by: Laura on September 25, 2008 at 07:54 PM
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Alan,
Contest Selections:
Zenyatta Stakes: HYSTERICALADY, looks to get lonely on the lead here, and I'm hoping she likes the surface better than poly or cushion. If she goes tits up I think she'll pass the BC.
Goodwood stakes: TIAGO should get a dream set up with all the speed in front of him. Two bullet works tells me he really likes the surface. He should come flying down the lane and pass everybody . Might switch to Albertus maximus who could benefit from the speed duel too. Depends on how the day is going.
Oak Leaf:The speed horses in here look like sprinters so I'm going to the closers.Stardom Bound looks unbeatable, therefore unbettable. I looked for a horse that might provide a bit of price and came up with
Toro Bonita, but scrathced her when I saw Flores on her.
He'll follow SB all the way around and forget he's supposed to pass her. So I landed on WILL O WAY. Rosario will be more aggressive (I hope) and have his horse ahead of SB early and hopefullt late. Nice works and with a win at Calder it tells me she might like the sandy Pro-Ride.
Yellow Ribbon:BLACK MAMBA, thank God Vacare and Wait a While are in here and I can get better than 4/5 odds this time around. Really coming into her own right now. Only problem is WAW might be able to control the pace and steal it.Will need to be a little closer to the pace in this one.
Ancient Title: Welcome to the barbeque. I so wanted to go against Street Boss here but pace makes the race. Cost of Freedom would be the play if Idiot Proof,Esperamos,and Delta Storm weren't in here. I can smell the meat cooking.
STREET BOSS catches C of F in the final strides for the win.
Jockey Club Gold Cup: CURLIN, he's the best and I do not see anybody here beating him.
Mambo In Seattle completes the exacta. In fact I might just switch to MIS if I can get 10-1 or better.
Him placing will pay more than Curlin winning.
Norfolk: Couple of lights out works has me leaning towards Dan Who and MIDSHIPMAN. Should get a nice pace to stalk and get the jump on the closers.
Posted by: cayman01 on September 25, 2008 at 07:55 PM
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The contest races for the NTRA/TVG Challenge:
Turfway-5-8
Bel-9-11
OakTree(SA)8-11
I'm entered interesting races
Posted by: larryK on September 25, 2008 at 07:58 PM
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Annie, no problem. The watch list I had of horses early in the meet is proving to be worthwhile so far:
Fiery Trippi 2nd (16.10-1)
STAR NICHOLAS 1st (2.80-1)
Essoai 1st (1.30-1)
Euroglide 6th (8.70-1)
Entries for 09-26
Sister Lucy - Race 6
Blue Exit - Race 7
Entries for 09-27
SIX PACK ABS - Race 1
Hiptopia - Race 3
Banner Lodge - Race 7
This was based on either multiple fast works or an off the chart hot work before the start of the meet.
Posted by: Steve T. on September 25, 2008 at 08:16 PM
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SANTA ANITA – Friday (09-26-2008)
Race 1
GOOCH’S DREAM improved dramatically in his race on Del Mar’s PolyTrack, a good sign for his first turf run. Stepping back up to straight maidens, two very nice works, and trainer is 25% on dirt to turf. Picks up Bejarano for the ride. KING OF THE GREEN had a very nice debut at Del Mar, changes barns and has two nice works at Golden Gate. Team hits at 33%. Another who is stepping up to MSW. COLE ROCKS showed some speed in his last and is eligible to improve and his running style could be a match with the turf.
Gooch’s Dream
King of the Green
Cole Rocks
Dr. Derango: SEANY’S COURAGE (and coupled Powerofvoodoo if he gets in) is an Unusual Heat who gets his turn on the grass, their best surface. Note that Abrams is 22% with a $10.49 ROI on dirt to turf. Team is good for 27% to boot.
Race 2
PEPPERMINT LOUNGE came back off of an 8 month layout and promptly won; have to expect an improvement in her second off of the layoff. Her first start on ProRide shouldn’t be an issue with that :46/2 work a week ago. Team of Gaines and Bejarano hit 32% winners. ZILLA is a hard knocking filly who is always up front at the end. Last was a nice showing against So Long Sonoma and Set Play. FOXY DANSEUR is stepping down and picks up Smith again who rode her to her two best finishes.
Peppermint Lounge
Zilla
Foxy Danseur
Dr. Derango: ROSANGELA won her debut at Santa Anita on the main track in a very strong run and now returns to the scene of the crime.
Race 3
COLOMINAS is 5 for 5 on synthetics, including a win at this distance over Hollywood’s main track. Runs for a 39% trainer and Bejarano in the irons. Ran a :47/4 at Fairplex, which is real fast. PLATA QUEMADA dropped in class her last out and promptly ran a very nice second. She needs to be a little closer to the front and could well get that against these. BOLD CLEO went on the shelf for two months and won first out at Fairplex. She has a win and a place in two runs at this distance.
Colominas
Plata Quemada
Bold Cleo
Dr. Derango: An upset in a $16K claimer on a new surface?? BLUSHING BEAR CAT has a record of 7-1-3-2 at Santa Anita and the two works on the new surface says that record will continue. Fresh off a win at Del Mar, she could continue her winning ways here.
Race 4
ANTIQUE AVENUE crushed the field last out with a BSF of 88. Have to believe a repeat (or anything close) and he wins again. SURF ACADEMY should appreciate the added distance and has three very consistent nice finishes. Rosario stays and the team is 26% at Santa Anita. BALLESTERO picks up a new pilot in Gomez and had a very nice work last week. Extra distance is a plus for this one too.
Antique Avenue
Surf Academy
Ballestero
Dr. Derango: Look, up in the lane – it’s a bird, no it’s a plane, it’s SUPERCARCHY! I nailed this one in his debut when he blew by them all in the stretch. The jock switch to Baze is the clincher, this horse needs a rider who can control him. Should be real nice odds too.
Race 5
SORCERERS SPELL is taking a big class drop, and does not have to run against Cost of Freedom, Bullsbay and Usurp. A return to previous performance levels should do the trick. MY FRIEND LUIS is a reclaim by Periban, gets 5 pounds and the team is good for 40% winners with a $5.48 ROI. GO FLAGS BRO suddenly woke up with a new rider who stays aboard for trip number two. The jump in BSF’s from 66 to 85 with the rider switch is ample evidence that this one is headed the right way.
Sorcerers Spell
My Friend Luis
Go Flags Bro
Dr. Derango: SPECIFIC RULE is a Tribal Rule that has never run on synthetics, and that’s what they do best. He is coming off of a two year layoff, but works support a first time fire. Runs for Mitchell and Bejarano who win 37% of the time.
Race 6
HOT N’ DUSTY has two quality starts but seems to have a real aversion to the gate. If they can get her in without major opposition she could go off. Connections are hitting 27%, last work was solid. Her dam was the dam of Chemolo. SISTER LUCY has three screamin’ works over the new track and could have her way first out. BURNA DETTE is a full sister to Heated Rebel ($140K) and Raise the Heat (340K). She was covered last out, her first run she was a solid second to Chimera Star.
Hot N’ Dusty
Sister Lucy
Burna Dette
Dr. Derango: Watch out for the drool, I can’t help it. GREY LASSIE is a Siberian Summer filly who has yet to run on synthetics. Look at her works at Golden Gate versus Fairplex. Picks up Rosario for run number two and the odds should be rewarding.
Race 7
This is more like a Grade 3 stakes than an allowance race, and is extremely tough to handicap. There is a little of everything here, drops in class, coming off layoffs, first NA run, first route, lots of turf to main track, sheesh! BLUE EXIT looks like a serious invader from France, with an ITM of 100%. Has the prototypical live work set, and the 1:11 work says sign me up for this surface. SLEW’S TIZZY is coming off a 7 month benching and I expect him to be ready to roll right off. Two of his three wins were on synthetics and Rosario now rides. WORLDLY may be coming out of his funk, his last two works were top notch, much faster than previous. His only previous try on synthetics was a win. If he is back, this could be short and sweet.
Blue Exit
Slew’s Tizzy
Worldly
Dr. Derango: FIRE LOOKOUT moves to the Inda barn and looks really overmatched – except that he is a Forest Camp who won last out and has worked well over the track. There will be so much money going elsewhere that this one could go 30/1 or higher. First out with trainer is 20% and post layoff is 20%. Hey you knew I was a nut job coming into this…
Race 8
Boy do these guys know how to make a field for the Super Five or what, you’d have better luck with the lottery. Here is my thought process handicapping this race – No, No, Hell No, Are You Kidding Me!, Oh Geeze, Bad, Never Even Heard of the Sire, Is That Guy Still Training? Okay, I’m through whining. They are turning BEENCAUGHTCHEATING around in one week, must be something they see. Did improve dramatically in his second start. Purely off of stats I am taking MERGE, 15% FTS, 24% Debut MCL and a 20% team. WHY SO SERIOUS is dropping from an MCL-80K and has to run better than last time… What a frickin mess this race is.
Beencaughtcheating
Merge
Why So Serious
Dr. Derango: It really helps to be crazy with this dog pound. Oh what the hell, THELMA ROSE has a chance to improve off of that blistering 39 BSF and Rio Verde’s do well on synthetics. Sorry it is the best I can do. Time for a tetanus shot.
Posted by: Steve T. on September 25, 2008 at 08:18 PM
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Oh my, that north fork was the recipient of a very poor ri......of bad luck, I mean, wasn't he?
Looked miles the best is why I'm saying.
A pity for those who chose right.
I wanted to talk for a minute about trainer/jockey stats. I can't believe a modern player can proceed without them, and I'm not referring to the stat in the form (it's too general), although better than nothing.
I have found these stats to be terribly useful when reduced to the distance and surface of the event. Many high percentage trainers (the only kind really worth backing) - with a live runner - will use a certain jockey for sprinting and another for routing or turfing. If his horse isn't live, he'll give the runner to whichever one is available.
The stats tend to play out this way. It would behoove one to know, then, if the 22% t/j combo that you're playing is actually 0 for 15 routing (the distance of the race in question). They kill sprinting, but that doesn't help you when you've included him at today's mile.
There are a thousand ways to effectively apply these stats. I use them everyday, usually the night before, using my youbet platform, looking at every race.
When you have a race devoid of any particularly strong connections - watch out! If you have a race full of great connections, watch out! If there are just a couple, you might have an exacta play.
There are examples everyday of horses who are being hammered (solely on form, perhaps) and yet lack the win intention. These stats, while not a projector of how a horse will run in any single event, are nevertheless like a beacon in the dark, often leading us in the correct direction.
Whole cards can be played on them, with profits extracted. Sans form.
Posted by: slewofdamascus on September 25, 2008 at 08:19 PM
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Forgot one - Worldly runs tomorrow in Race 7.
Posted by: Steve T. on September 25, 2008 at 08:29 PM
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Tony,
Yes CF was the speed of the speed, but the only other two who have shown speed were Tropic Storm and Desert Code, and Tropic Storm puts pressure on those in front of him. I think the point is unchanged, that CF would have an easy time up front and ignoring that was a violation of basic handicapping - by all of us but 2 or 3. And you are right CF was a serious overlay to boot! I think one of the reasons we backslide on points like this is that we are generally not at the track anymore so our head goes elsewhere. All in all reinforcement of a real truism, speed kills!
Posted by: Steve T. on September 25, 2008 at 08:39 PM
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Royal Lodge – Indian Ocean
Fillies Mile – Fantasia
Queen Elizabeth 2 – Raven’s Pass
Jockey Club Gold Cup – Mambo in Seattle
Lady’s Secret – Zenyatta
Ancient Title – In Summation
Oak Leaf – Stardom Bound
Yellow Ribbon – Marzelline
Goodwood – Mast Track
Miss Grillo – Will post later
The Pilgrim - Will post later
Oak Tree Mile – Global Hunter
Norfolk - Midshipman
Posted by: Steve T. on September 25, 2008 at 08:59 PM
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tony kelso -
Good points on the Morvich. I actually liked California Flag quite a bit (my second selection under Get Funky) even before the Tropic Storm scratch. And following his scratch he became that much more dangerous on the lead (being a half to hillside monster Cambiocorsa didn't hurt) and his 22-1 odds were surely out of whack. In hindsight I still can't believe I sat there and watched all those exotics hit without any real dollars invested.
- robertSD
Posted by: robertSD on September 25, 2008 at 09:33 PM
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Average Racing Post Ratings (RPRs) for Saturday's big races at ASCOT, including the last 10 years.
For point of interest I will subtract 5 points OFF the RPRs to get an estimated BEYER fig.
Royal Logde (Gr. 2, 2yo colts, One Mile)
Avg. RPR = 111.2 Estimated Beyer = 106
Fillies Mile (Gr. 1, 2yo fillies, one mile)
Avg. RPR = 113.1 Estimated Beyer = 108 (note one winner was really low so I took her out of the data set).
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (3up, one mile)
Avg. RPR = 127.3 Estimated Beyer = 122
Posted by: tony kelso on September 25, 2008 at 10:01 PM
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slewofdamascus,
We're trying. They're all running well but just not running first. This games all about ups and downs and now its our turn to be in the slump. Everyone gets out of it, but if you look at the past couple months, we've actually done really well, so we're not complaining.
Posted by: Riley on September 25, 2008 at 10:11 PM
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johnnyz and Tony Kelso,
Thank you so much for the Ascot PPs and race info!! Now if I can only figure it all out before Uncle Steve's CHAT tomorrow night!!
As if you don't have enough to do this weekend, the free TVG Handicapping Challenge starts this Saturday - the two week contest is free and top three finishers each week go to the NHC in Vegas!! Here is the website to enter:
http://www.ntra.com/nhc/tvg/
DRF PPs are available in a zip file for all 10 contest races. The races are:
TP5
TP6
TP7
TP8
BEL9
BEL11
OSA8
OSA9
OSA10
OSA11
Posted by: Alan on September 25, 2008 at 10:20 PM
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Mathieu, thanks for putting me in the song.
Although I have not participated, I have enjoyed reading the posts for the HandiGambling exercises. I am testimony that there are huge differences between knowledge and handicapping, and then to an ever greater extent, between handicapping and betting/wagering.
Especially when it comes to allowance and stakes racing, I consider myself a fairly informed observer. However, this knowledge hasn't always translated into good handicapping. For the most part, though, when I really study, I can be a decent handicapper; by this, I am aware of basic jockey and trainer patterns, and usually have an idea of how most of the horses will run. From what I have read, most here on the blog can do this, and with much greater accuracy.
Unfortunately, when it comes to translating my handicapping to actual wagers, I am not very good. In fact, I have become the brunt of good-natured jesting from my friends because my handicapping generally proves to be close but I rarely make any money from it. My friends, on the otherhand, who are only casual fans, listen to what I have to say and then, much more frequently than me, are able to make some winning bets.
I have found that to make a winning bet one has to: 1) select the right race(s) and the right horse(s) in the race(s); 2) select the correct play(s); and then 3) choose the proper amount of money for these wagers. I rarely am able to add the 2nd and 3rd steps to the 1st. If I get the horses right, I seem to make the wrong plays, and even when I make the right plays I find myself upset for not investing enough on it. Generally, however, the 2nd step is what gets me.
Ultimately, the frustration of gambling failures took away some of the enjoyment out of my racing experiences, and love of the sport is what drew me to the track in the first place and remains paramount. I especially disliked when I found myself rooting for a horse I had wagered on instead of one of my "faves". I am a fan not a gambler, although I understand that the majority who follow the sport are, to some degree, a combo of both.
Have others found there is a big difference between informed fan, handicapper, and bettor? What percentage of the betting pool can actually live off their winnings?
Dan, and others if applicable, how hard is it for even a professional gambler to make money?
Something that is very clear from the HandiGambling exercises is that even for very good handicappers, which so many of you are, betting/gambling is a beast, and can be very humbling and frustrating.
Posted by: GunBow on September 25, 2008 at 10:30 PM
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Slew:
The odds fluctuations before, during, and after a race are especially large at tracks with very small handles. Here in Michigan at Pinnacle Race Course and the harness tracks, the odds fluctuations can be almost unbelievable. A horse can go from 8/1 morning line, be 40/1 after 5 minutes of betting, go down to 12/1 at post time, before closing (after the start) at 6/1. The above example did not actually happen, but I'm not exaggerating by much if at all. Such is the perils when the total handle for a race is $1,000 or less.
Posted by: GunBow on September 25, 2008 at 10:55 PM
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Slew,
I'd always been one of those guys who wondered why some went on and on whining about odds drops during a race. So a whale unloaded just prior to post. Big deal. The skeptics came out of their seats in 2002 when a HollyPark maiden dropped from 9/2 to 1/5 as she was pulling away on the turn. The roar went up without doing the math. What was the likelyhood of a group of insiders all sending it in to the track at the same time and destroying the value for all of them? Not high. And why would a single party do the same? It turned out it was a guy in an eastern or tropical hub who somehow punched a $110k win ticket when he wanted a mere $10k. And he had the cash in his account to cover it. So he got around $33k while risking $110k and if his intentional wager had knocked his odds to 7/2 he would have cleared a bit more with $100k less at risk. But the cries of "FIX!" still florished.
So I was mildly amused when I leafed through a "Horseplayer" (this may or may not be the title of the publication) magazine and and there was an article on a high profile horseplayer who was an avowed cynic of past posting stories he was hearing. So he decided to test out a few tracks. He would linger at a window right up to the start of the race. He then started calling out tickets after the bell. To his astonishment at one track the machine spit out his first call. And his second. Third. Fourth. The machine cut off after about thirty seconds. He went straight to track management and told his tale. They didn't believe him until he showed them. The belated cutoff time varied but it was consistent.
There may be nobody out to get you but sometimes the cracks in the system just make it seem that way.
Posted by: Mathieu on September 25, 2008 at 11:22 PM
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Gunbow,
You had an obvious oversight in your "Iron" divisions. Aptly named Tony Kelso is the Iron Handicapper.
No debates.
Live with it.
Posted by: Mathieu on September 25, 2008 at 11:35 PM
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C,
I am absolutely on board with you about the whole Curlin - Big Brown hype. There are plenty of capable horses like Colonel John, Well Armed, Mambo in Seattle, Mast Track - there will be plenty to chose from at nice odds.
***************
CRAZED PREDICTION
Mambo in Seattle will beat Curlin this weekend. And I really don't want to see it because it messes up the BC odds.
***************
The whole Breeders Cup thing has turned into a circus side show - two years in a row at the same track, more races than they have good horses, and ridiculous name changes - like Ladies Classic, God I HATE that name. The definition of distaff is "the female branch or side of a family", must be hard to understand...
Name 3 for each of the races - I can for Classic, Sprint, Juvenile, Juvenile Filly, Turf, Distaff and Turf Sprint (because of my knowledge of the downhill). Your point is well taken, I can't even think of what the other races are (wait, just remembered Marathon), much less the runners.
All of the tracks are coming up about 10% short, so figure they will too (Friday may be way less - apparently the concept of people having jobs eluded them). Why does everyone in the industry act like they are working for the government?
Posted by: Steve T. on September 25, 2008 at 11:47 PM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 