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FormBlog | October 25, 2008

BC Friday recap, Saturday analysis

Horseplayers often lose touch with their emotions.  We analyze and bet race after race, half-hour after half-hour, day after day, and all the feelings blend into one.  Agony.  Ecstasy.  Anxiety.  Joy.  Despair.  Hope.  We become so numb that when special things occur on the racetrack, they lose their impact. 

I can honestly say that when Zenyatta made her patented wide sweep on the far turn of the Ladies' Classic, there were tears in my eyes, and I realized I was witnessing the extraordinary.  Surely, she wasn't doing it again.  How is it possible to beat the best fillies and mares in the country without taking a deep breath?  Does she ever take a deep breath?  Horses like Zenyatta don't come around very often.  Heck, it's possible one like her will never come around again.  This is the special kind of runner that makes speed figures and pace ratings irrelevent in determining greatness.  We know they're great because they awaken the sometimes-dormant passion and love for the Thoroughbred that got us into the game in the first place.  More importantly, they make even the most hardened horseplayer feel like a racing fan again.  Bravo Zenyatta.  See you next year, I hope.

Friday's Pro-Ride surface was an apparent closer's paradise as only one of the seven main track races was won by a speed-type.  That was pace-pressing Guns on the Table in the opener for Dan Who? and John Velazquez.  It was a day of electrifying late bursts of speed.  Ventura opened up the Breeders' Cup festivities with a tremendous stretch punch.  She was tenth after a half-mile in 44 flat, but closed her final eighth in 11.90 (according to Formulator 4.1) to outfinish the game Indian Blessing, who was up on that quick early pace.  Zaftig, making her first start off a long layoff due to injury, was a game third.  I'm sure if you told her trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, that his charge would run seven furlongs in 1:20.90 and lose, he's have thought you were crazy. 
Stardom Bound is getting the nickname "the little Zenyatta," and although such comparisons to greatness are a bit premature, there's no denying that the gray daughter of Tapit has the "it" factor.  Like Zenyatta, Stardom Bound is content to lope behind the others before unleashing a blinding burst of speed when it counts.  This race was dominated by late-chargers after a testing opening half-mile in 45.92.  The top five finishers were racing in twelfth, tenth, fifth, eleventh, and thirteenth after the first two furlongs.  European invader Pursuit of Glory sure looked like she was racing on dirt, didn't she?

Bobby Frankel won the opening Breeders' Cup race with Ventura, and it was his former apprentice, Chad Brown, that got his name stamped in the record books with Maram's tight photo finish victory over European Heart Shaped in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.  Favored Laragh set a quick pace up front, and felt the effects in the stretch.  Consequence had some trouble, but has to be considered at this point as the biggest underlay of the meeting.
Wide-rallying horses also had their way on the grass.  Forever Together came from off a tepid pace to win the Filly and Mare turf with a late surge.  No excuses for rail-skimming Visit, or pace-pressers Wait a While and Halfway to Heaven.   

I took a bath on Friday, and the old confidence isn't exactly sky-high.  Still, let's take a look at Saturday's card with European analysis from our friends at The Racing Post:

Marathon:
Once again, we'll see if a quality European runner can handle this surface.  Sixties Icon has class (he won the 2006 St. Leger over subsequent BC Turf hero Red Rocks, and was 8-1 against Classic-bound Duke of Marmalade in the Prince of Wales's in June), is sharp (he's won his last three races), and we know he'll get this distance (four wins at 12 furlongs).  The surface, as it is with all of the Euros stepping hoof on the main track, is the main obstacle.  Zappa showed that 1 1/2 miles isn't out of his reach with his speedy win in the Cougar II.  He was pressed for a half-mile that day before bottoming out the field entering the backstretch for the final time.  He's held his own against some very good Southern California handicap horses in his last two races, and looms the main threat.  Euro Muhannak has won over polytrack overseas, but that wasn't pro-ride, and the company he faced doesn't seem top-class.  Still, it's a plus that he can handle the distance over a varienty of surfaces.  Big Booster was the beaten favorite in the Cougar II, but needs pace to attack. 

Here's the handicapper from The Racing Post with his take on the Euros (www.racingpost.co.uk)

Sixties Icon:
Excels off the slow pace which normally prevails in US races over this far because he can produce a tremendous burst of finishing speed. In fact, only one horse has finished in front of him in nine races that my speed ratings indicate were slowly run. This was the very smart Getaway. Proven around tight turns too. Deserving favourite.

Muhannak:
Won six of the eight times he´s run beyond a mile on a tight course on firm turf or the AW. Would have won his other two but for running green in one and getting boxed in the other time. Won a Dundalk Listed race on Polytrack in fast time on his latest start and looks a big player here.

Selections:  Sixties Icon, Zappa, Muhannak

***

Turf Sprint:
There should be a barbecue up front with HandiGambling alum California Flag, Idiot Proof, and  Mr. Nightlinger vying for early supremacy.  That should set things up for a closer, and I'm giving Diabolical a chance to remember what he once was.  Last year, Diabolical was a multiple graded winner on the main track before being purchased privately by Godolphin.  Things haven't exactly worked out overseas for Diabolical, however, with only one win in eight tries.  He did have some traffic troubles in the Group 2 Diadem Stakes at Ascot last time out, and may be able to run these down under Dettori.  Fleeting Spirit certainly didn't have an easy time of it in the Prix de l'Abbaye at Longchamp.  Her gate didn't open during the "original" running of the race, and she banged her head on the stall.  After that debacle was deemed a no-contest, she lost a shoe galloping back to the paddock.  The "real" race was run several hours later, and Fleeting Spirit only was beaten three lengths for all the marbles.  She's only a three-year-old filly, but it looks like she's run some quick races overseas.  Mr. Nightlinger has been a revelation since returning to turf sprints, but he went gate-to-wire in his last five wins, and he may not make the lead with lots of speed to his inside.  Get Funky has valuable experience over this course, and his stalking style plays well here.

Diabolical:
Has run well in a strong of top European sprints, running almost as fast as he did in America. This race is nothing like as strong as those he´s been contesting. And it could well be he´s better around a turn than on the straight courses he´s tried in Europe. Big chance.

Fleeting Spirit:
Smashed Haydock´s 5f record on seasonal debut, earning huge speed rating. Ran well in two big
G1 sprints afterwards. But she´s never won beyond 5f or run around a turn. And she´s best off a break which she hasn´t had here. The fastest horse, but will sherun her race?

Only Answer:
Sole runner for most successful foreign trainer at this meeting. Won the first three times she ran less than 7f and bounced back to her best to win a 5f G3 last time where she finished strongly. Her dam won a G1 on turf over this odd distance, and Only Answer has won around a turn too. Very interesting runner.

Selections:  Diabolical, Fleeting Spirit, Mr. Nightlinger

***

"Dirt" Mile:
I'm going for the long bomb with Two Step Salsa.  Although he didn't win the Swaps two back, I loved the way he dug in while between rivals to beat back next-out Travers winner Colonel John for the runner-up position.  He has good early speed, has been working in steady seven-day intervals for Julio Canani, and should be prominent when the field turns for home.  He'll have to shrug off Mast Track (foot problems) before holding off the quality stalkers and closers, but he deserves a look at a big price.  My Pal Charlie enjoyed a perfect trip winning the Super Derby, but the argument could be made that this three-year-old is a late-developing sort.  He draws a poor post, and may be forced wide around both bends, but at 20-1 on the morning line, he gets a chance to overcome the adversity.  Well Armed is certainly the one to beat, but I wonder if he's a "tweener."  Perhaps a mile is too short for him and the 1 1/4 miles of the Classic is too long.  We'll find out in a few hours, and he should work out a good trip stalking Mast Track and Two Step Salsa.  Albertus Maximus is in career form, and should get enough pace to setup his late rally.  Lewis Michael projects for a good, ground-saving trip in behind the leaders from his rail post position.  He humbled Midnight Lute in the Pat O'Brien, and a mile is certainly within his scope.

Lord Admiral:
A solid Group 3 horse that did manage to win a Dubai G2 from a dozen starts in G1 and G2 races. But he´s now seven and surely not good enough to win at this level while trying the AW for the first time.

Selections:  Two Step Salsa,  My Pal Charlie,  Well Armed

***

Mile:
I don't know what happened to Kip Deville at Woodbine, and neither does Richard Dutrow Jr.  He seemed rather keen coming out of the gate, was taken under a hard hold by Cornelio Velasquez, and just didn't fire turning for home.  Perhaps he didn't like the wet conditions in Toronto that day.  The defending Mile champion should work out a similar pace-tracking, ground-saving trip as last year with Ventura and Thorn Song setting the table up front.  Kip Deville is a multiple graded stakes winner over this course at this distance, and gets a chance to atone for the recent misfire.  Goldikova beat the boys in the Prix du Moulin last time out, and the third-finisher that day, Paco Boy, came back to drill U S Ranger in the Prix de la Foret.  Goldikova seems tactical enough, and is the sharp horse to beat.  U S Ranger won his first three races at a mile for Jean-Claude Rouget, but this will be his first start at this distance since he went to Aidan O'Brien's yard late last year.  Perhaps the additional distance, and first-time Lasix will help him get over the hump.  Whatsthescript unleashed a powerful kick to win the Del Mar Mile, and he won the Pasadena Stakes here last March.  He's the intriguing local.

U S Ranger:
Carries his head very high and seems best against lesser opponents. He´s won all five times he´s raced below Group class but lost all ten times in Group company. Might thrive off the likely slow gallop over a mile as he did when winning three slow run races out of three in France over the trip. Very classy and might spring upset.

Goldikova:
Ran a good third in the French Oaks in fast time over 10.5f. But has managed to win three big 1m races thanks to yielding ground and the use of pacemakers that ensured a searching gallop. Firm ground, a 7f oval and likely slow pace make this a very different proposition.

Selections:  Kip Deville, Goldikova, U S Ranger

***

Juvenile:
A rather weak renewal of the Juvenile as top two-year-olds Vineyard Haven and Charitable Man pass the race due to indifference or injury.  There also doesn't appear to be much early speed in this race, and that may benefit Munnings, a gate-to-wire winner in his career debut at Saratoga.  The $1.7M purchase often breaks a half-step slowly so John Velazquez may have to hustle Munnings to the front, but he could certainly control things with a clean break.  Munnings chased Vineyard Haven in his last two in New York, and that one would probably be favored in here.  Here's a chance for Todd Pletcher to get back on the beam.  Square Eddie's win in the Breeders' Futurity flattered all of the European two-year-olds.  Going into the  Breeders' Futurity, Square Eddie's most notable win was in a maiden at Salisbury, and his best Racing Post Rating was 103.  Compare that to Bushranger, a multiple Group 1 winner in Europe with a RPR top of 121.  I'm not sure if Bushranger is really bred to go this far, and his outside post over an unfamiliar surface are concerns as well, but he certainly fits from a class perspective.  Square Eddie sure looked good in the Breeders' Futurity, but that race came up weak on paper, and he'll probably face better opposition here.  Midshipman acts like a good horse, and the rider switch to Garrett Gomez looks like a sharp one.  Midshipman may need to be a bit closer to the expected moderate pace, but he leads the California contingent, and homecourt advantage is a wonderful thing to have this year.  Street Hero is a likeable sort, and wouldn't be a surprise from stalking range.

Bushranger:
Won the same two G1 races that Johannesburg did before winning this. But doesn´t have such good form and is more speedily bred. Could be the tight turns will help him stay. But it´s hard to enthuse about a horse that´s trying a new distance, a new surface and a turn for the first time in a Championship race.

Selections:  Munnings, Bushranger, Square Eddie

***

Juvenile Turf:
I'm going with the Canadians.  Grand Adventure bested Skipadate despite the worse trip in the Grade 3 Summer Stakes at Woodbine, but I'm going with the gray son of Skip Away to turn the tables.  Skipadate's trainer, Mark Casse, has wonderful stats when adding blinkers, and it's possible that the diminutive Skipadate got intimidated when tackled from the outside by Grand Adventure and Bittel Road in his last two starts.  I'm hoping he'll focus better with the blinkers, and he should get some pace to attack in the late going.  Westphalia looks like the top European hope after winning the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, but he pulls hard coming out of the gate, and I wonder if that will adversely affect his ability to stay this distance.  Bittel Road has looked good in his three wins, but he'll get bet, and his Beyers are a bit light compared to the Canadians.  Coronet of a Baron looms the main speed, and is certainly bred to stay this trip.  He was only beaten a nose by Midshipman in the Del Mar Futurity so it's a bit puzzling why he's here instead of the Juvenile.

Westphalia:
Quickened impressively to scoot clear in a 7.5f Listed race at Tipperary. Beat the smart Zacinto in the G2 Champagne Stakes last time off a slow early pace. In between ran a clunker on bottomless ground. Proven on a fast surface, around a tight turn and within half a furlong of this trip. Probably a cut above these.

Donativum:
Showed good early speed to win his maiden over 6f. Held up to get the 7f when winning the Timeform Million. A mile is somewhat doubtful on pedigree and looks. And I don´t like betting a horse at this level which is trying a turn for the first time.

Paddy the Pro:
Came off a slow early pace to pick off the leaders and win going away in a race where I timed the last two furlongs as being run in 22.45 seconds. Next time out off a much stronger early pace, he again picked up strongly to go right away at the finish ina good six furlong nursery. Bang there with the best of these on the clock and looks sure to improve for the longer trip.

***

Sprint:
Tough, tough race.  Which Midnight Lute shows up?  The good one probably dusts this field the same way he won last year's Sprint.  The problem is that we haven't seen the good one since last year's Sprint.  Considering all of his problems, I'll let him beat me at a short price.  There should be a lot of speed in here, and I'll take Fatal Bullet, a three-year-old that's shown the ability to stalk and pounce.  He should be clear of traffic woes from his outside post, and can get first run on the closers on the turn.  His recent synthetic numbers look good although I must admit I wasn't as visually impressed by those races as other folks.  I think that when Fabulous Strike is healthy, he is one of the best sprinters in the world.  He won the Vosburgh last year with a breakthrough performance, but missed the Sprint due to a lung infection.  After winning a three-horse public workout at Delaware in his 2008 debut, he missed the summer sprints with foot issues.  His recent runner-up effort in the Vosburgh was a grueling effort, and he probably faces pace pressure again.  Still, this is a very, very good horse.  Black Seventeen ran a corker in beating Fabulous Strike in the  Vosburgh.  While he's comfortable with synthetic surfaces, I wonder if he's at his best over wet dirt.  First Defence is at his best when on the lead ala his Forego win two back.  I'm not as confident in him when he gets looked in the eye.  Both Street Boss and Cost of Freedom could certainly win this race.  The former may have been using the Ancient Title as a true prep, and should get an ideal pace setup.  Cost of Freedom has been awesome for Sadler, and galloped out about eight in front of Street Boss after fending that one off in the Ancient Title.  The inside post for Cost of Freedom worries me just a bit.
Selections:  Fatal Bullet, Fabulous Strike, Black Seventeen

***

Turf:
I really liked Out of Control's effort in the Clement L. Hirsch over this course.  He chased a loose, longshot pacesetter through crazy fractions, had to expend an awful lot of energy in reeling that one in, then was immediately confronted by Red Giant in upper stretch.  Despite all that, he fought Red Giant all the way to the wire, and galloped out pretty well.  This will be his first try at 12 furlongs, but I'm hoping that he inherits the lead from rabbit Red Rock Canyon, and has enough left to stave off the closers.  He should be a square price, and he seems over the foot issues that bothered him after the Manhattan.  Conduit may be the "now" European after winning the Group 1 St. Leger, the same prep Red Rocks used before winning the 2006 Turf.  He's lightly-raced so it's possible we haven't seen his best just yet.  Soldier of Fortune defeated Red Rocks in the Coronation Cup earlier in the year, but he was then beaten by the exposed Youmzain in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.  He ran well in the Arc, and is a threat on his best day, but he figures to take a lot of money...perhaps too much?  Grand Couturier has been a terror on grass in his last two starts in New York, but I wonder if he prefers a little give in the ground.  Red Rocks, the 2006 winner, defeated Curlin in the Man O'War, but he enjoyed a perfect trip that day, and hasn't started since.  Eagle Mountain  received a nice prep in the Group 3 Joel Stakes, and shouldn't be taken too lightly.

Winchester:
Showed a terrific turn of foot to run away with the G1 Secretariat Stakes. But that´s a bogus G1 that can easily be won by a G3 horse, which is what speed ratings and all know form say Winchester is.

Red Rock Canyon:
Acts as pacemaker for Soldier Of Fortune. Useful but still a maiden after 17 starts.

Conduit:
If he´d been fitter on his seasonal debut and not been caught napping by Campanologist at Royal Ascot the Leger winner would be unbeaten in six starts beyond a mile. Made up an extraordinary amount of ground to scoot home by six lengths in a hot 10f handicap at Epsom on Derby day, proving he likes a downhill course like this one. He´s shown he can win in a sprint finish too. I love his chances here.

Eagle Mountain:
Won a G3 over a mile following a year off with an injured pelvis. Has the ability to go close but has now lost all six G1´s he´s contested and is running in a very strong renewal of this race.

Soldier of Fortune:
Solid dual G1 winner. But his best win by far came on heavy ground and he clearly lacks a serious turn of foot. A one paced third in the Arc, he‘ll be racing on even faster ground here. Chance depends on how hard others chase his pacemaker (not very hardis my guess).

Selections:  Out of Control, Conduit, Soldier of Fortune

***

Classic:
All eyes will be on Curlin as he goes for the repeat Classic win, but he'll tackle several good European runners including Ravens Pass, a three-year-old that has finally put things together in his last couple of starts.  While it could be argued that fellow Europeans Henrythenavigator and Duke of Marmalade are both over the top, Ravens Pass seems to be coming into his own at the right time.  There are obvious surface and distance questions, but the price just might be right.  Henrythenavigator reeled off four straight Group 1 wins earlier in the year including both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas.  Perhaps the Lasix perks him back up to his best form.  Curlin is the most likely winner, and I have to admit I'm rooting for the fan favorite to finish a wonderful campaign up in style.  There just won't be much value in playing him to win.  Go Between likes synthetics, and has a puncher's chance late.

Henrythenavigator:
The way he finished strongly after being outpaced in the Moulin convinces me that this one time Derby prospect will have no trouble stepping up to ten furlongs. His preference for a firm surface makes him a good candidate for this AW course as well. Four-time G1 winner is still improving according to my speed ratings and looks to have a major chance.

Casino Drive:
Promising Japanese horse that kept his unbeaten record when winning a minor prep here on this surface. But he failed to produce the acceleration which wins big races on AW tracks. Seriously good looking horse with a huge stride. But he lengthens rather than quickens and it looks like he wants longer. I can´t see him having the pace needed here.

Duke of Marmalade:
Won five G1´s in a row. But ran well below his best when seventh in the Arc. The excuse there was a slow pace, but it´s near certain to be even slower here. His form looks to be on the slide, just like that of his stablemate Dylan Thomas was before he ran a clunker at this meeting last year.

Ravens Pass:
Clocked a tremendous time when beating Henrythenavigator in the QEII. Certainly fast enough to win this and should adapt to the surface. But he´s never run beyond a mile and looks a doubtful stayer. It could be the likely slow early pace will enable Raven´s Pass to stay the trip. But that´s not how I see it.

Selections:  Ravens Pass, Henrythenavigator, Curlin

More importantly, who do you like today?  I want to know.

Best of luck to all!

Dan

Posted by dan_illman on October 25, 2008 | Permalink

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Comments

Dan,

Nice job with the picks, and nice touch adding The Racing Post handicapper's comments on the Euro and foreign horses. And you did a very professional job with Crist and Watchmaker over at the pre-race video handicapping post for the BC races! Way to moderate...and keeping those knowledgable yet longwinded handicappers moving along with the task at hand!

For those who have not already seen the videos, sponsored by Twin Spires, its here at DRF, but just follow the link below:

http://www.drf.com/bc/2008/video/prerace.html

I am posting my picks for today (and winners for Alan's BC final leg) in a couple of hours.

Busy day today, and that is not even including the BC races!

Oh, yeah. Go Rays!

Posted by: vicstu on October 25, 2008 at 10:13 AM

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Dan, I just want to say what you wrote above about Zenyatta is true poetry in prose. Very well expressed. I shared the same feelings. She was absolutely wonderful in that race. Thanks for your comment on her.

Posted by: Davey700 on October 25, 2008 at 10:19 AM

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Long time reader first time poster...You weren't the only one with tears in their eyes when Zenyatta started her run and flew on by everyone. She is absolutely amazing!!

I will have more tears if Curlin can pull it off today. And would love for Tiago to place too.

Posted by: Teri on October 25, 2008 at 10:19 AM

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ALAN CONTEST PICKS:

ZAPPA
GET FUNKY
LORD ADMIRAL
SHAKIS
TERRAIN
GRAND ADVENTURE
MIDNIGHT LUTE
GRAND COUTIER
COL JOHN

THANKS,

DALE

Posted by: Dale on October 25, 2008 at 10:25 AM

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Anybody doing anything in the
NTRA challenge. I'm a sterling 675th. Man, i'm finishing like Dearest trickski...........

Posted by: cayman01 on October 25, 2008 at 10:28 AM

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Alan, picks for today:
Delightfull Kiss
Diabolical
Lewis Michael
Goldikova
Silent Valor
Skipadate
Fabulous Strike
Eagle Mountain
Champs Elysees

Thanks.

Posted by: johnnyz on October 25, 2008 at 10:40 AM

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My vote for best name is the 8-horse, Paddy the Pro, in the 6th race. Will couple him with the 12, Grand Adventure for the exacta. Good luck for all. Ray

Posted by: ray flack on October 25, 2008 at 10:46 AM

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Updated contest spreadsheet - please check for accuracy:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL5nDMm2cvAzCg

Good luck today!!!

Posted by: Alan on October 25, 2008 at 11:08 AM

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I'm tied at 197 ($40.80), Cayman. Had I chosen Forever Together (idiot), I'd actually have a chance in this thing.

Need some bombs today.

I'm giving Big Booster a shot in the marathon. I had chosen sixties icon, who I thought stood out, but Big Booster wins when least expected, sixties icon will have little value, and booster's got the back class, look who he's run against early in his career.

Horse who have run well at Kee should run well over this main track, let's see how that plays out today.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 25, 2008 at 11:11 AM

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Marathon

Delightful Kiss---Starting to see a them here….Another Grey closer…At a rather long price..

Turf Sprint

Salute the Count---Dead Closer in a field loaded with speed…And Dutrow don't hurt.

Dirt Mile

Well Armed---Huge drop in class and Competition here…Sits off and pounces.

The Turf Mile

Kip Deville---Should bounce back huge off the last mud bog race…The filly Goldiva is also a scary presence…Going with the Male here..

The Juvenile

Square Eddie---Won for fun his last out and looks to love the Poly….The pick in a open as usual race.

Juv Turf

Skipadate---Best last race buyer and adds blinkers…Looks to be improving every race.

The Sprint

Street Boss---My BB of the day. From last to 1st in one huge move.

The Turf

Conduit---Wide open affair and someone needs to win…Ran a huge race off layoff Looks Primed for upset.

Classic

Curlin---Give him the Crown and silence his doubters.

Posted by: JZ on October 25, 2008 at 11:15 AM

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Alan
Here are my contest picks:

Church Service

Salute The Count

Well Armed

War Monger
Bushranger
Grand Adventure
In Summation
Dancing Forever
Go Between

Thanks Alan

Posted by: scianc22 on October 25, 2008 at 11:23 AM

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Alan: Contest picks, please, of Delightful Kiss, Idiot Proof, Lewis Michael, Shakis, West Side Bernie, Donativum, Fabulous Strike, Grand Couturier, Champs Elysees.

Slew: For your contest, I'll take Donativum by 3/4 length.

Posted by: rr on October 25, 2008 at 11:54 AM

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Sat. Picks (Winner for Alan's contest in parenthesis):

BC Marathon: (Sixties Icon)
Cedar Mountain, Muhannak.

BC Turf Sprint: (Diabolical)
Idiot Proof, Fleeting Spirit

BC Dirt Mile: (Two Step Salsa), Well Armed, Surf Cat,
Rebellion.

BC Mile: (Goldikova) Kip Deville, Shakis, Awesome Gem.

BC Juvenile: (Wesr Side Bernie), Midshipman, Square Eddie, Munnings.

BC Juv. Turf: (Westphalia) Grand Adventure, Doniativum,
City Style.

BC Sprint: (Fatal Bullet), Street Boss, Cost of Freedom, Fabulous Strike.

BC Turf: (Conduit), Soldier of Fortune, Winchester, Dancing Forever, Better Talk Now.

BC Classic: (Henrythenavigator), Curlin, Raven's Pass, Go Between, Duke of Marmalade.

The above list may be revised before each post. Alan, the winners I isolated for the contest have ( ) around them.

Posted by: vicstu on October 25, 2008 at 12:12 PM

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Vicstu,
Now that my maiden was broken by setting foot in an OTB, I actually found one near my house in Chicago and ventured forth again. And the most profitable part of the day was by following some of the handicapping strategies of SR Vegas and my mom. The result was I had a winning tri on Forever Together, Sealy Hill and Wait Awhile! Two pretty gray horses and a long shot that I felt was underrated by the public.

Cashed a few small ones too, but betting Zenyatta over Cocoa Beach wasn't exactly a stroke of genius or insight. I only wish I had bet Zenyatta w/ MN and CB w/MN and CB as a tri instead of the exacta of Zenyatta w/ MN or CB. Oh well....

Wasn't Zenyatta a thing of beauty? My husband even gasped at the ease of her win. Did anyone else noticed that her ears were never flat against her head at any point in the stretch drive and she just inhaled a wonderful group of distaffers with very little effort. I had goosebumps beginning the minute she started to roll.

Mathieu,

Hank Goldberg probably couldn't even get a date with a blow up doll. Even dolls have standards!

Slew, I forgot to say Fairbanks by a desperate head. Since no one else has picked him, it probably wasn't important that I forgot to add the distance on yesterday's post.

Last but not least, this is only one of three times since 1992,that I have not been present at the BC and as much as I feel weird about not being there, I totally hate the new 2 day format, the watered down fields due to the inclusion of all the new races, the synthetic surface and most insulting of all, relegating the females to not only their own day, but having it on a Friday to boot.

Did anyone else notice how totally goofy it looked for all three of the announcers to be wearing pink ties? How patronizing!

Posted by: turnbackthealarm on October 25, 2008 at 12:16 PM

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I just got done watching the absolutely horrendous effort by You And I Forever in the 200k stake from the meadowlands last night (race 8).

In my opinion, and mine alone I know, this once-promising 3yo colt was ruined by KentD. How could the horse run that poorly last night? Didn't he run second last time.

It was in the cards. His 2nd last time at one turn was actually a real step backwards, as I pointed out at the time, and this further regression last night (actually, a final regression, to my way of thinking) is right in line with that awful 2nd.

The fight in this animal is GONE.

If you watch his race versus Mambo In Seattle, which he should have won with an urgent ride (not the cowboy ride he got), it ended up with You And I Forever being out-gamed, in the last 100 yards.

Painfully out-gamed.

From that moment forward, that very moment, this horse has never been the same. Last night was simply the final act in that process.

In that mambo race, KD gave him the kind of ride you give a grizzled vet, a proven warrior. It's not the kind of ride you give a young, obviously impressionable, late-developing 3yo, who is just beginning to see the Light.

The best way to assuage his confidence at that point was to steal the race at the appropriate moment, getting the jump on your best competition (hello), and allowing that beautiful-striding animal a chance to reach for the wire every step of the way home - in front and in command.

What you don't do is waste an early move by sitting on the fence and waiting for your competition to pass you on the outside, as you then lose ground in swooping outside of him for a final showdown. It was final. There's no doubt about that.

It was very obvious from this horse's workouts immediately following the mambo in seattle debacle that he had crashed and burned (emotionally). Everything that's happened since has been harder and harder to watch.

This is something that I feel very strongly about, because I recognized it the very second I watched it unfold. It did not have to happen.

I feel badly for everybody involved. But that's pretty much that with this one.

Onward and upward.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 25, 2008 at 12:29 PM

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congrats to all the connections on friday.lets hope zenyatta's handlers choose to bring her back like they said.saturdays picks:marathon-cedar mountain,turf sprint-rouse the cat,dirt mile-my pal charlie,mile-goldikova over war monger,juvenile-terrain,juvenile turf-donativum,sprint-black seventeen,turf-conduit,classic-ravens pass.good luck to everyone today.good luck to curlin even though i think he's in for a battle with the europeans.

Posted by: jesse dunn on October 25, 2008 at 12:31 PM

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Alan,

Contest Picks:

Marathon - Zappa
Turf Sprint - Get Funky
Dirt Mile - Albertus Maximus
Mile - Kip Deville
Juvenile - Gallant Son
Juv. Turf - Westphalia
Sprint - Midnight Lute
Turf - Eagle Mountain
Classic - Curlin

Annie

Posted by: Annie on October 25, 2008 at 12:42 PM

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To answer anything that might be coming, let me follow-up by saying that it was absolutely NOT reasonable to think that You And I Forever - at that very time - was anyhwere near ready for that sort of challenge, where you throw down the gauntlet, give your opponent EVERY advantage, and storm by him to win, anyway (giving everyone the finger sa you do it, right KD?).

Like a Kingfish.

I don't think that's reasonable, but in that race we did get to see You And I forever's true, innate ability, which was voluminous (not anymore).

No one can hide behind the fact that he wasn't gifted enough. Because he clearly was, and if you take out those last few critical moments where he's completely and utterly destroyed (psychologically) by Mambo In Seattle, his talent is on display and unquestionable.

My point is that it was not reasonable to expect him to win the way KentD was determined to have him win. It was not very inteligent or well thought-out.

I put that on KentD (and his ways), because ultimately he's responsible for what happens in that situation.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 25, 2008 at 12:43 PM

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To All My Loyal Subjects:

Alas, in the first day's battle, three of my brave knights fell in defense of their Queen. May they rest in peace.

But, the battle rages on. Do not give up!

The Once and Future Queen
Annie

Posted by: Annie on October 25, 2008 at 12:47 PM

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Alan,

Here's my contest picks.

Marathon – #5 Muhannak.
Exotics: #4 Sixties Icon; # 5 Muhannak; #7 Big Booster; #8 Cedar Mountain.

Turf Sprint – Rouse The Cat.
Exotics: #3 True To Tradition; #7 Rouse The Cat; #10 California Flag; #14 Mr. Nightlinger.

Dirt Mile – #5 Two Step Salsa.
Exotics: #2 Surf Cat; #5 Two Step Salsa; #7 Albertus Maximus; #8 Well Armed.

Mile - #5 Daytona.
Exotics: #2 Kip Deville; #4 Goldikova; #5 Daytona; #11 Whatsthescript.

Juvenile - #2 Gallant Son.
Exotics: #1 Munnings; #2 Gallant Son; #8 Street Hero; #11 Midshipman.

Juvenile Turf – #13 Mark S The Cooler.
Exotics: #1 Ninth Client; #10 Skipadate; #12 Grand Adventure; #13 Mark S The Cooler.

Sprint – #4 Midnight Lute.
Exotics: #2 Street Boss; #3 Fabulous Strike; #4 Midnight Lute; #8 Sing Baby Sing.

Turf – #10 Out Of Control.
Exotics: #3 Grand Couturier; #4 Soldier Of Fortune; #9 Conduit; #10 Out Of Control.

Classic – #9 Curlin.
Exotics: #2 Casino Drive; #4 Duke of Marmalade; #8 Raven’s Pass; #9 Curlin.

Posted by: Calvin Carter on October 25, 2008 at 12:57 PM

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Alan here are some picks for the contest will post more picks later.

Marathon-Zappa
Sprint-Get Funky
Mile-Well Armed

Posted by: Tony P on October 25, 2008 at 12:57 PM

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Don't know how many college football fans we have on this blog, but ESPN picks up the Cup coverage beginning at 3:30 EST from ABC. At 12 noon they started a game w/ Texas Tech and Kansas. This game will be in the 40s or higher. There is a long (20 min) halftime in college. Both teams pass the ball a lot, which leads to incompletions, first downs (which temporarily stop the clock), points, stoppages, and a long game. So I am calling this now, there will be some kind of issue with tv because this game will run long. What happens then? Do they leave this game in the 4th quarter? Do they hold it on ABC, which would mean they miss the beginning of their 3:30 games? Who knows. I'm predicting an issue.

I like Surf Cat today in the Dirt Mile. I think he's finally getting a pure one mile race that he should like. There should be enough pace for him to settle back. Either him or Lewis Michael and I'm playing them w/ Whatsthescript in the Turf Mile. Whatsthescript's closing figures are tremendous, best in the field among the Americans. This is his favorite course, his favorite distance. And he's been great since the trainer change. I know the post is no bargain but I trust Gomez.

My bomber of the day is Silent Valor in the Juvy. He has a much better post today than he did last time, he should work out a nice trip just off the pace. Maybe he wants 1-turn. I don't know. This is a wide open race so I'm taking a shot.

Also like Skipadate with blinkers-on. I do think his 3 route races give him a fitness edge.

The Classic, to be honest I'm not sure. Henrythenavigator is an educated guess. Kingmambo/Sadler's Wells, he should get the distance. He's been pointing for this. Besides Curlin, who I want to play against, I'm not enthused with these Americans.

Good luck!

Posted by: Greg on October 25, 2008 at 01:10 PM

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Alan,

I got mixed up on my times and don't know if I got my contest picks to you in time for the first race.

Marks S. The Cooler is scratched in the Juvenile Turf so put me down for #1 Ninth Client to win. Going with the bombs, mostly, the contest.

Posted by: Calvin Carter on October 25, 2008 at 01:37 PM

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Contest picks (if I'm not too late!!)
Turf Sprint-Fleeting Spirit
Dirt Mile-Well Armed
Juvinile-Street Hero
Juvinile Turf-Bittle Road
Mile-Kip Deville
Sprint-Midnight Lute
Turf-Soldier Of Fortune
Classic-Curlin

Posted by: Chase on October 25, 2008 at 01:39 PM

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Turnbackthealarm,

Another Chicago-based blogger, I presume? ;) NIce work in the F & M Turf!

Posted by: PGM on October 25, 2008 at 01:40 PM

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Alan-
Actually can I have Mr. Nightlinger instead of Fleeting Spirit?
Thanks, and sorry!

Posted by: Chase on October 25, 2008 at 01:43 PM

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Missed the first race, here are my selections for the remaining BC card. Have an EXCELLENT day yesterday, hoping we can get 1-2 winners today as well.

R2 - Only Answer/Rouse The Cat/Mr. Nightlinger

R3 - Lewis Michael/Well Armed/Lord Admiral

R4 - Goldikova/Precious Kitten/Shakis

R5 - West Side Bernie/Terrain/Mine That Bird

R6 - Grand Adventure/Skipadate/Coronet Of A Baron/Bittel Road

R7 - Fatal Bullet/Street Boss/Sing Baby Sing

R8 - Conduit/Better Talk Now/Grand Couturier

R9 - Duke Of Marmalade/Tiago/Curlin/Champs Elysees

Good Luck to all. Enjoy the rest of the cup!

Posted by: Sedonia on October 25, 2008 at 01:45 PM

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I was right, Diabolical was screaming for firm turf. However I was nailed by of all horses Desert Code. I was all over Diabolical in the wagering menu. Its a good thing I backed up with a two dollar exacta.

Posted by: Kenny Mac on October 25, 2008 at 02:10 PM

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Alan here are the rest of my picks for the contest

Mile-Bold Chiefton
Juvenile-West Side Bernie
Juvenile Turf-Donativum
Sprint-Street Boss
Turf-Better Talk Now
Classic-Colonel John

Posted by: Tony P on October 25, 2008 at 02:17 PM

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Inexplicable ride on lewis michael. He had no chance a 1/4 mile into the race. Oh well.

I wouldn't have bet Albertus, a one-time member of watch list, with your money. Hated him.

Onward. And upward?

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 25, 2008 at 02:37 PM

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Updated Leaderboard - Blue Thongs are currently #1,2 and 6!! Updated Leaderboard after three races:
Katieontherail $136.40
Annie $124.70
Greg $108.00
larryk $106.20
Mike $79.20
nancy43 $67.50
Chase $57.60
buffalo joe $56.10
Uncle Steve $55.50
SR Vegas $47.80
Bill $43.90
cayman01 $42.10
Calvin Carter $36.30
Stephen Taylor $31.60
David W $31.50
rfh52pp $30.80
John R $28.70
johnnyz $26.45

Updated selections - please check your picks for accuracy:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL5nDMm2cvAzCg&gid=0

Continued Good Luck!!!

Posted by: Alan on October 25, 2008 at 02:54 PM

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TurnbacktheAlarm

Hope you had a fun day with your Mom.& Congrats on the Grey-Longshot-Grey trifecta.
$996. Very nice!!!

Zenyatta is a.a... well I'm speechless to describe her. I did get a gorgeous photo of her schooling in the paddock on Wed. So I have a Pre-BC souviner. But her race was breathtaking.

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on October 25, 2008 at 03:25 PM

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I'm pretty much done here.

My confidence is not great to begin with, I'm going to play the emerald downs invader to upset the juvy field on experience.

I saw where Steve did not use coronet of a baron - AT ALL! - in his $5k pick-6 play.

He's probably right, so I'm just staying out of everything. My bankroll for the day is down to $77.77.

Saving it for the Classic where I will do god knows what.

And that's it for the year.

I don't have any idea where we are in the contest, but we will sort that later tonight.

Good luck.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 25, 2008 at 03:48 PM

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Blue Thongs Rule!...

Actually, I am totally gob-smacked (that's a technical term) to have done so well so far when there are so many smart, insightful handicappers in this field....if I do well, to paraphrase Newton, it's because I peak over the shoulders of giants and look at their 'capping notes!

and now back to our regularly scheduled program......

Good luck all!

Katieattherail

Posted by: Katieattherail on October 25, 2008 at 03:55 PM

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The married horseplayer dilemma: Three races to go and my wife wants me to go out to a friend's house, BUT I'm still alive in all my multi-race wagers, including my minnow P6.... Ughhhhhh!!

Well...here is the Leaderboard with three races to go:
Katieontherail $130.40
Annie $125.10
larryk $116.20
Greg $96.00
Mike $89.20
buffalo joe $67.30
Uncle Steve $66.70
rfh52pp $57.20
nancy43 $55.50
Chase $51.20
Bill $47.10
Dennis of Moline $43.80
David W $41.50
cayman01 $36.90
SR Vegas $35.80
johnnyz $29.65
Stephen Taylor $25.20
Calvin Carter $24.30
Alan $8.20
John R $4.70

I'll update the contest when I get home tonight. Good luck the rest of the day!!!

Posted by: Alan on October 25, 2008 at 05:14 PM

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...thru the BC Sprint, I'm thinking that Queen Anne and King Larry are dueling over that top spot at the moment...
with the Lady Katie in Waiting hanging around....

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on October 25, 2008 at 05:34 PM

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Turnbackthealarm,

Glad you ventured into your local OTB...pretty soon and you will be hardcore.

Zenyatta is a tremendous looking horse. The largest and tallest horse in this year's Breeder's Cup is undoutably Midnite Lute. The horse is massive, and when he gets moving...

Chalk is chalk, but way to go with ML and Midshipman, Bullet Bob!

Posted by: vicstu on October 25, 2008 at 05:35 PM

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If you guys haven't seen the p-6 play that steve crist made on the other blog - it's the best handicapping I've ever seen for a BC, and the frame is incredible - you should check it out.

Man!

Myself, I'm extremely discouraged by everything about my game, and while I feel I learned something about euros in the BC, I'm a little old to be putting it together now, light years away from the example and standard that Steve has set.

Onward.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 25, 2008 at 05:40 PM

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Alan,

The key to spousal peace on Breeder's Cup Day or a triple crown day is to find something better for them to do which would not require your presence! hahaha I sent mine to a World Series of Poker event!

PGM, You are partially correct. Due to work and family obligations, I split my time bewteen Chicago and NJ. The good part is that most of the summer, I'm 5 minutes from Monmouth and an hour or so(depending on traffic)from Belmont. Arlington is a very nice track as long as the card is not filled with $5,000 Illinois bred claimers. hahaha

Still clued to the BC coverage. How awesome were Midnight Lute and Goldikova?

Off to watch the Turf and Classic. Good luck to all the bloggers and may all our athletes come back healthy and whole.

Blue, Your namesake trains Eagle Mountain!

Posted by: turnbackthealarm on October 25, 2008 at 06:03 PM

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Turnbackthealarm,

Agree with you that Arlington is a nice track when it's not Claimers on Parade. I was there three times in the tail end of the meet.

Posted by: PGM on October 25, 2008 at 06:17 PM

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wow, the fillies are battling it out to the end. Good job Katie and annie.

Posted by: cayman01 on October 25, 2008 at 06:19 PM

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Alan, how can you?

To leave Chalky in charge is a baaaaaad move!

Katie

Posted by: Katieattherail on October 25, 2008 at 06:20 PM

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Amazing, unforgetable, race, I busted a gut rooting for Tiago.

The Europeans had their day, and in my opinion, showed what racing is all about. I commend them.

***

Who won the contest for Dan's DVD?

No, I am asking. Who won?

Will the winner help me out and step forward, if there are any close calls we can sort it out?

Thanks and I hope you all made a fortune! I lost my way (frown).

Nice pick in the Classic, Dan!

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 25, 2008 at 07:05 PM

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Dan, oh fearless leader!

I think you were the only one to pick Raven's Pass in the contest, what a win, and I sure hope you had real money riding on him. Great pick, that's why you're Dan the Man!

One of the best of days of racing/handicapping I ever had!

Katieattherail

Posted by: Katieattherail on October 25, 2008 at 07:09 PM

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I have finally exhaled.....After seeing several breakdowns up close and personal on Breeder's Cup Day, it is with pleasure I can report to my casual racing fan friends that there were no fatalities.

By way of background, I cancelled my Sports Illustrated subscription for the incredibly graphic pics of Go For Wand's injury and distress. In the 2003 BC at Arlington, I also failed to cash a huge trifecta ticket (Domedriver edged Rock of Gibraltar for 1st and the payout was huge) because I was less than 2 feet from Landseer who was running loose on 3 legs with the other hanging loosely. I threw up so long and hard that I actually lost everything I had in my pockets. So, every year I hold my breath and pray that they all come home safe.

So, Bloggers, was it the Pro Ride or was it just luck?

Posted by: turnbackthealarm on October 25, 2008 at 07:30 PM

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OOOPS, mi scusi!

Gotta give credit to Jesse Dunn, (he/she?) had RP as well as Conduit and some other goodies.....that is one smart 'capper!

You think that was a tight race with me and Annie today?
Wait till you see me on the rain-soaked trail south of Albany tomorrow morning!

Katieinthemud

Posted by: Katieattherail on October 25, 2008 at 07:32 PM

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Slew, I had Conduit by 3/4 of a length (he won by 1 1/2). I don't know if that won but it's close. Glad I didn't use my other selection, Surf Cat!

Tough race by Curlin. I wonder if Albarado is going to get criticized for moving early. It's a tough call. The pace wasn't all that fast. I doubt he would have won anyway but he is a grinder, and he was in front at the top of the lane, a smidge before perhaps. He might have moved early but it wouldn't have mattered. Tremendous performance by especially Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator ran well too, probably the two with the best late kicks in the race.

Posted by: Greg on October 25, 2008 at 07:46 PM

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Slew: I had Donativum (3/4 length) at $13.60... that beats yesterday's leader, but can't say whether or not it was the highest.

Posted by: rr on October 25, 2008 at 07:54 PM

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Was there anyone else?

That's amazing!

Both winners paid 13.60!

I'm sure I could look at lengths beaten to determine a winner, but - and this is only if no one else turns up with a higher paying winner - I will cut the DVD in half and send it out.

Do you guys have a preference for which half you want?

Obviously, this is amusing. If it holds up, I'll send you both a copy. I think that's the only fair thing.

Send me your names/addresses to slewofdamascus@comcast.net

I will send out as soon as official. I don't think anyone had the bombs, but I'm not positive.

Great job by everyone!

Thanks for playing.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 25, 2008 at 08:28 PM

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Slew,
For your contest I had Raven's Pass ($29.00) by 2 1/2 widening lengths, but his margin was listed as 1 3/4.

Posted by: Billy on October 25, 2008 at 08:37 PM

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Hi Folks,
Looks like almost everyone got a piece today. I had the best handicapping day of my life. Started well as I had a WP place bet on Muhannak but missed on my vertical exotics. Wouldn't have ever picked Desert Code in the turf sprint but I delved lightly. Thought Albertus Maximus was a ridiculous underlay at 7-1 and loved Well Armed. Thankfully when I saw Well Armed at 6-5 I backed off a little. Foolishly bet against Goldikova who was freaky good. Didn't connect on the Juvenile which came back incredibly logical with all the Grade 1 winners running 1-2-3.
But then things got interesting. Don't call me a heretic but I can't rag on the ABC/ESPN coverage because they bailed me out. After hearing that a horse Donativum beat last out came back to win a Group 1 at Newmarket I added him to my tickets and had the exacta with Westphalia and was alive in the double to Midnight Lute and Fatal Bullet.
Midnight Lute looked amazing in the paddock and apparently I wasn't so brilliant in selecting Fatal Bullet who was bet down to 5-1. Singled Midnight Lute in pick 3s with Conduit and Eagle Mountain in the turf and Curlin, Henry the Navigator, Duke of Marmalade, Raven's Pass, and Champs Elysees in the Classic. Also played some straight tris Midnight Lute with Fatal Bullet with Fabulous Strike and Street Boss.
By now I'm way up and jovial as can be. Foolishly backed off a bit on Conduit because I got scared of Eagle Mountain. Ended up hitting the exacta but missing the tri and I didn't put down a win bet but I'm still alive to the Classic in the pick 3.
Either got brilliant or simple, regardless I figured with the euros dominating to bet a $1 exacta box with the three euros and played around with some tris with Curlin and the euros in the first two slots. Missed on the tris but the Raven's Pass/Henry the Navigator paid a fat $160 on a one dollar bet and the pick 3 was a fat $493.80. Finished up more than $700 up and I max out at $1 tris and $2 daily doubles.
Lessons learned and predictions for future Breeders' Cups:
1) A listed stake level euro can easily win the marathon and euros will win at least 90% of the marathons.
2) The euros will continue to dominate the juvenile turf.
3) If you have a horse you really love don't hedge just dive in and single in pick 3s and key on the top of vertical exotics. Trifecta payoffs are always inflated.

Posted by: DManCPR on October 25, 2008 at 08:39 PM

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I tip my cap to Baffert and Midnight Lute. Bob Who? did a wonderous job in a cramped time frame with a horse that had multiple issues to address and he nailed each one. The horse ran over the field with his giant strides at a distance that is not his best and caught my play of the weekend, Fatal Bullet. The player in me was obviously disappointed with the loss but the fan within has to acknowledge the brilliant effort.

Hey Tinky,

Midnight Lute, Turkoman, and Lit de Justice are all rallying off a 21 flat opening quarter. Whose your choice?

Posted by: Mathieu on October 25, 2008 at 08:43 PM

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Oops. Sorry Guys!

We have another, higher payoff.

All you guys are amazing!

Billy, send your address to

slewofdamascus@comcast.net.

I will get it out asap.

Sorry again, guys, but great handicapping.

And everyone else who has an interest in race replay I think you must add Dan's DVD to your collection.

Thanks for playing, everyone!

See you next year!

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 25, 2008 at 08:49 PM

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Oh yeah.

Tiago will very likely be retired after hitting the board in the Classic.

I want to wish him a great career at Adena, and send us some nice ones!

Go Tiago!

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 25, 2008 at 08:52 PM

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Hello Everyone,

Even though Alan is not done with the contest, I wish to send congratulations to everyone playing in the contest.

I had a great day yesterday, failed to take into account the Euros, giving me a really crappy day today.

But this is my first year at this. It was suggested to me to enter after a friend, whom i played the horses with for years, had to move and start anew across the country.

Alan, I understand your W/P net system, but why not consider gross payoff next year, if you do this again next year.

And do you all doing anything for the road to the triple crown?

Once again, thanks for letting me participate and for the winners and all the players..Great Work.

Nancy43

Posted by: nancy43 on October 25, 2008 at 09:50 PM

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vicstu- I do not know the exact measurements but someone told Baffert that Zenyatta was bigger than Lute. He instantly went over to Sheriffs (I didnt spell that right) barn and asked to measure her. He did and Zenyatta actually IS bigger than Lute. Someone made a joke that if they bred them they would end up with a giraffe.

So forget that 20% of Curlin is up for sale in KY. If his ownership situation wasn't a complete clusterf--- what do you think they would do with him? Would he be retired?? Go for Clark and Japan?? Keep him around at 5?? What do you think they WILL do and what do you think they SHOULD do??

PS The breeding comment may have been with Curlin not Lute.

Posted by: Stephanie on October 25, 2008 at 10:05 PM

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What in the world happened today? I was out at Santa Anita and I only picked two winners today! I picked that horse by CHESTER HOUSE in the Marathon, and GOLDIKOVA in the Turf Mile (genius, I know). I didn't trust Baffert about MIDNIGHT LUTE, but the horse ran great! I went against him, though.

WELL ARMED needs a vacation? I think so anyway. WELL ARMED was coming off a win over ALBERTUS MAXIMUS and TIAGO, and those two ran great today, while he bombed. SLEW'S TIZZY and SLEW'S TIZNOW both bombed, and I don't think that was their true race. This race bummed me out, to tell you the truth.

GOLDIKOVA is another filly monster, isn't she? Amazing!

RAVEN'S PASS ran great. CURLIN got beat, and that's OK, because great horses do get beat. CURLIN is a great horse. He's no SPECTACULAR BID or SECRETARIAT or FOREGO, but he's great, and he's better than BIG BROWN.

COLONEL JOHN ran perfectly - for a short horse, that is! He made a bold bid at the top of the lane and then just flattened out, just like a horse who needed a prep. A race 65 days ago is not a "prep." I think he was just dead tired from the 1/8th pole to the wire, because he wasn't ready for a 10 furlong race against the best horses in the world.

I hope WELL ARMED gets a little vacation at CLUB CASNER (swimming, hanging out, kickin' it for a while). COLONEL JOHN will do well next year, but I think he needs to run a bit more often. I think WELL ARMED will bounce back also.

I wish that racehorses would actually start racing again, instead of staying in the barn, racing 6 times a year and then being whisked off to the breeding shed.

Posted by: Mike S on October 25, 2008 at 10:40 PM

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I got home in the past hour, sulked that I lost the P6 and P4 in the Classic and then updated the contest results.
The contest came down to the final race....although still unofficial (please check spreadsheet for errors), the winner of FORMBLOG Breeders' Cup Dreaming is............
GREG with $173.20!!!!

Here are the Final Contest Top 10:
1. Greg $173.20
2. Katieontherail $167.60
3. Annie $153.10
4. larryk $144.20
5. Mike $96.40
6. Dennis of Moline $81.00
7. buffalo joe $76.10
8. Chase $60.00
9. Uncle Steve $54.70
10. David W $50.30

Greg wins:
*Faidley Crabcakes
*Ribs, Brisket, or Pulled Pork w/Sauces
*Hot Smoked Chinook Salmon (Columbia River, Oregon)
*Two Autographed Saratoga Hats (Edgar Prado, Pat Day)
*"Let It Ride" DVD
*"Welcome To Las Vegas" Baseball Cap signed by Pat Day, Angel Cordero Jr, and Lafitt Pincay Jr.
*Autographed Breeders' Cup Picture of Pat Day, Angel Cordero Jr, and Lafitt Pincay Jr.
*"Genuine" SA Pro-Ride

Greg also had the highest total for the Breeders' Cup races, so let's award the other "Let It Ride" DVD to the 2nd place finisher Katieontherail!!

Here are the Top10 for the Breeders' Cup races:
1. Greg $136.40
2. Katieontherail $110.00
3. Joe F $72.00
4. vicstu $66.40
5. "Longshot Dan" $62.80
6. Annie $61.60
7. Dennis of Moline $56.80
8. Chase $52.10
9. Lenny $44.40
10. Calvin Carter $43.20

Congratulations to Greg and Katie as well as to all Contest Formbloggers!! Luckily, I had another great day today - much different than last year's terrible Breeders' Cup results! I attribute my success this year to all the pre-race effort from handicapping the WAYI contest races these past few months! That was one of my goals when we started the contest and luckily...that goal was accomplished!! I hope you all had a great day as well!!!

Here is the final contest spreadsheet - please check for accuracy: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL5nDMm2cvAzCg
Contest Leaderboard: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL5nDMm2cvAzCg&gid=2
Breeders' Cup Leaderboard: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL5nDMm2cvAzCg&gid=9
"SHOW ME THE MONEY": http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p0punDkqmTL5nDMm2cvAzCg&gid=5

Greg and Katie,
Please email me your addresses to Formblogger@gmail.com so I can forward them to the contest prize givers - johnnyz, Mike Romeo, larryk, rr, SR Vegas and Uncle Steve. THANK YOU TO ALL CONTEST PRIZE GIVERS!!!

Thank you all once again for participating in the contest!! I had a great time!!!

Posted by: Alan on October 25, 2008 at 11:36 PM

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Couple BC thoughts,

One there is no doubt Curlin's effort was hampered by the synthetic track. That is obviously a surface that one needs not only training but, a couple races on, or be a very good turf horse.

I am not crying as I did very well today. After Friday I adjusted my betting to observation which paid very well. I hit three Tri's today, which on BC day ensures a good day. Had a W/P on Raven's Pass, with his odds why I didn't bet straight win is beyond me. Here is a paste from a post I directed to Slew on Friday at 11:24 AM: I also feel Raven's Pass is a player here. Can't help but remember Gosden said before the QE II that RP was not at his best for reason. The BC is the race he has been pointed to. I think the Elusive Quality colt will handle the surface fine and contrary to many I also feel the 10F will be no problem.

One of the things I have learned from following Euro racing on a daily basis, and betting regularly is for the most part trainers words are gospel!

The other glaring observation that came from the BC is that Zarkava, the Arc winner was really, really a special filly. I thought the best performance in the two days was Goldikova's win. Well Zarkava spanked that one twice. Also one must remember that Goldidova beat Henrythenaviator easily in the Prix Moulin two back. So all that questioned Zarkava's greatness this BC answered much IMO!

Congrats to the winner in Alan's contest and, thank you Alan for providing what was alot of work for all of us to have a good time!

Posted by: johnnyz on October 25, 2008 at 11:43 PM

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Greg,

Congratulations on the Contest. Very well done, and a tip of the cap.

Nice separation from the rest of the field by the Katiesittingbytherailwitharedhatonandaracingforminonehand, Queen annie, and Larryk!

Also congratulations to all those that moved out of negative territory to positive territory.

Too bad "Chalky"!

Hey, we all learned something about the Euros at Santa Anita, didn't we.

Wait 'til next year!

Thanks,

Posted by: chicago gerry on October 25, 2008 at 11:51 PM

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Slew,

I think I heard you screaming for Tiago. Did you hear me? Felt like a wiseguy to have him in a future at 25-1 when he went off at 15-1. Did have him boxed with Raven's. If only there had been some more pace, I think he could have gotten closer. Too bad there wasn't just one true speed horse to set up his late run. I don't know why he has to be so far off anyway.

I had a terrible weekend. Part dumb luck, part stupidity, part jockey error. All weekend if I was between two horses, I picked the wrong one. My two criticisms go to 1)Alan Garcia for his ride on Dynaforce. He has a horse with speed that has always stalked in second and he takes the horse back in what, sixth or seventh, only to get shut off in the stretch. Terrible ride. And 2) why did Bejarano give up the lead and rail on Square Eddie to Midshipman only to try to rally up the rail in the stretch rather than swing outside? Dumbass, if you wanted the rail so bad, don't give it up in the first place. I don't know if either horse would have done better but it would be nice to have found out. I saw a lot of so-called "great" jocks out-think themselves under the the bright lights. Maybe it was the heat. I dunno. I can't throw stones, I guess, 'cuz I choked too. I think I watched too much TVG and heard way too many opinions. You know what they say about opinions....

Posted by: jim tully on October 26, 2008 at 12:41 AM

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Booooooooooooooooooooooooo Tiago is too young to be retired.......C'mon Sherrifs give him one more chance at the Classic!

Posted by: Reinier on October 26, 2008 at 01:26 AM

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On "another" racing blog I read a bunch of nonsense about how horrible the two days of the Breeders' Cup at Oak Tree (Santa Anita) was -- due mostly to the oft maligned synthetic surface Pro-Ride. As for myself, I must say I enjoyed the two days of racing immensely. We saw stellar performances by some amazing thoroughbreds who ran their hearts out for our enjoyment. In no particular order (OK the first is my fave ever so she is tops) :

Zenyatta - my favorite horse in thirty years a nose in front of Landaluce.

Stardom Bound - she is like a mini-Z and it's cool I know the connections.

Goldikova - that acceleration was breath taking.

Midnight Lute - with really no prep this year ... wow.

Midshipman- no one else won on the lead all weekend.

My biggest handicapping (and wagering) mistake of the weekend was not including enough (or the correct) Euros. Two Euro seconds (FRI - Heart Shaped/ SAT - Eagle Mountain) cost me more than a few rolling P3s -- which is what I basically played all weekend.

All that said, it was a great weekend of racing that was worth the money lost. And congratulations to everyone who did win this weekend!

- robertSD

Posted by: robertSD on October 26, 2008 at 01:45 AM

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Dan,

Very nice recap on Friday's BC races, and in particular remarks about Zenyetta; also,
especially great BC analysis and picks, for Saturday. Outstanding!.. and it is mild!

Dan,

Great leadership and skipperness shown, when you pointed the way to the Racing Post comments, and provided link to same. That's what we pay you for. Unfortunately, for some of us, you can lead a horse to water but you can't make us drink. The reason for this is, we get in a certain mind set and we don't want to be bothered with things we don't know much about and are to lazy to investigate and learn.

We all know the guys and gals on this formblog who follow what is going on outside the U.S. and Canada. These people are the ones with an edge. Next year for the BC at Santa Anita, the smart ones among us, will be drinking more information from 'over there', than we did this year.

Dan,

The public selectors were overwhelmingly biased toward American runners. Well, maybe not overwhelmingly, but pretty biased. They ought to be more professional in their handicapping. We have guys and gals on the formblog that did much better and shoud be applauded for knowing things about foreign runners.

Dan,

The Euros appeared to me to be much happier and stronger than their American counter parts. It makes me wonder about their breeding, and the fact that they are running all the time in heavy, soft, and good grass.

Dan,

Muhannak, Henrythenavigator, and Ravens Pass ran with first lasix.

Dan,

I don't think the Euros will have as great an advantage over American U.S. and Canadian runners, once the BC gets away from Santa Anita in 2010.

Dan,

The hot California weather did not seem to bother the Euro runners.

Thanks,

Posted by: chicago gerry on October 26, 2008 at 02:31 AM

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Alan,

I want you to know, what great fun the 'Contest' was. I think your 'Contest', along with our fearless leader, brought the Formblog Community, just a little
closer for a period of time, and, thanks for that.

Alan,

If you don't mind sharing:

1. How much of a distraction was the 'Contest', in relation to the Handicapping Tournaments you were involved in and which were going on at the same time.

2. Honestly, how many hours a
week, on average, did you have to put in on running the 'Contest'.

3. Honestly, did you ever say to yourself; "What the heck, me and my big ideas; what did I get myself into here"!

Alan,

Just to let you know. If I really wanted to, I coud have won the 'Contest'.

Thanks,

Posted by: chicago gerry on October 26, 2008 at 02:56 AM

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BC Classic:

In order to get that new record time of 1:59.47, both Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator ran the final quarter mile in just under 23.76 seconds. The final furlong in 11.8 seconds. 11.8 in a 10 furlong race? That is a freakishly powerful late kick.

Actually, Saturday was not a bad day for me. I hit the exacta in the Classic (after I told everyone that Henrythenavigator and Raven's Pass were the 2 Euros that possessed both tactical speed and a brilliant turn of foot (quickening), to win a BC Classic. My only concern with RP going in was his pedigree, and I felt strongly that Henry had the pedigree to get 10 panels. I knew they both had the form, so I played those two in an exacta while tossing Curlin from my exacta and including Curlin in my tri...

I also had Conduit to win the BC Turf, and I also had Goldikova to take the BC Mile. And there were others, but suffice it to say that I am delighted that the Euros did what I insisted they would-while also taking a moment to remember Curlin's year. The race set up well for these horses.

My only wish was that Johnny V. would have moved on Henrythenavigator earlier, instead of having to split foes and going after RP late.
HTN and RP are very close now in talent. Whichever horse gets the first jump will probably win out of those two..

Its too bad that Johnny V was not given the free reign that Frankie was given on Raven's Pass. For those who think that Johnny rode the horse just fine, consider his comments in quotes.

John Velazquez (jockey, Henrythenavigator, 2nd) – “I had a perfect trip. Because of the distance – his first try this long – they wanted me to wait until the three-eighths (pole) before I moved. When I did, he went. I wish I could have made that move earlier. I think it might have made a difference. He stayed today. There's no doubt about that. He ran an excellent race.” (Press Conference. Downey Profile.)

Too bad they just didn't let Johnny V call the shots aboard HTN as the race unfolded, maybe he could have got the jump on Raven's Pass and won. According to Robbie, both horses roared past Curlin midway through the stretch. "That's the first time ever another horse has passed him in the stretch once he had the lead...Those (top 2 finishers) are great turf horses who ran 1-1/4 miles in track record time."

Slew,

Hope you ended up including Henrythenavigator with Raven's Pass in your exotics. Know you had Tiago somewhere (smile)...

Stephanie,

By asserting that Zenyatta is actually "bigger" than Curlin, I think you are trying to say she measured taller.

I agree Zenyatta is exceptionally tall, at least 17 hands or more. However, you appear to be confused about this. Just talk!
You could make an argument that Zenyatta might be a sliver taller than Midnite Lute; however, Lute is easily the more massive horse. According to the Official Starter at Santa Anita, Lute was the only horse that ran in a Breeder's Cup race who could not fit comfortably in the starting gate. Baffert said they had to stand at an angle to even fit inside. Typically, a large male like Lute will outweigh his female counterpart, especially if he is a sprinter (because they have greater muscle mass and more fast twitch muscles).

Hard Spun and Street Sense were actually taller than Curlin (HS and SS were both 16.2 hands tall, while Curlin is 16.0. Curlin carried more weight and muscle mass than either HS or SS. He was a longer colt with a massive stride. Believe me, if Zenyatta weighed more than Lute, she would never be effective at 2 turns.

Besides, Baffert is quoted after winning the BC Sprint that Lute is the most massive horse he has ever worked around, with the longest stide. Both Midnite Lute and Zenyatta tower over their contemperaries, but lets not make Zenyatta a lumbering wonder due to her weight. She is fine just as she is.

Posted by: vicstu on October 26, 2008 at 05:34 AM

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Slew, Fish

I want to thank both of you for cluing me in to the virtues of the Europeans entered in the Classic during your mini "Tinkython" ten days ago. Because of you two, I took a closer look at them and saw that they were indeed, serious contenders (unlike pretenders like Casino Drive and Colonel John).

When Dan liked them and Steve Crist used them in his $5,000 pic-6 (leaving out CD and CJ), I decided to make them the focal point of my BC Classic play.

I used Curlin on top of Raven's Pass, Henrythe navigator, and Duke Of Marmalade in my exactas. I also did an "Arazi Special", boxing "Raven", "Henry", and the "Duke" together for a smaller amount. When the exacta came in and paid $319, I was humming their names for hours to that old baseball song about NY centerfielders, "Willie, Mickey and the Duke".

Again, many thanks.

Posted by: ktalbany on October 26, 2008 at 07:47 AM

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I feel like I finished ahead, when in reality, I never left my living room. I didn't even play Belmont or anything else after seeing the rainy forecast... and I'm perfectly ok with that. Really, I am.

The other day, I was saying that the ProRide was probably more like dirt than turf. After watching this weekend's races, I conclude it shares similarities with both, but is like neither one. It is an entirely different surface. I don't know what to make of these results. In some cases, the best horse probably won (to be expected on ANY surface), but in others, I think that's very much open to debate.

The result of the Classic says it all. I don't care that Curlin lost. I'm not even surprised that he lost. I AM surprised that Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator finished 1-2 in the "Breeders Cup Classic". Neither of these 3YOs had ever raced a step beyond 1 mile in their life, nor had they ever run on anything but turf. Yet they run 1-2 against our best 1 1/4 hopes, including Curlin, who is legitimately the best 1 1/4 DIRT horse in the world and very well may be the best Classic-distance DIRT horse we've seen in 3 decades? I'm sorry, but something seems wrong with this picture. Again, I have no problem with Curlin getting beat yesterday. Anything can happen in 1 isolated race. Still, you can't convince me that BOTH Raven's Pass AND Henrythenavigator are better Classic-distance runners than Curlin on DIRT. Clearly, yesterday's race was not on dirt, which raises 2 questions: (1) Should the BC be contested on such a surface at this point in time? (2) If not, does the result really mean anything?

What's the conclusion here? Everyone except these 2 Euros spun their wheels on this stuff? And the Cup is coming right back to SA again next year. In this country, the vast majority of our major races are STILL on DIRT. Yet we're "crowning champions" (thanks Joe Tessitore) on a surface that is foreign to most the contestants. It is not dirt. Nor is it turf. It is something different that can't really be described yet. This is like holding the heavyweight title fight in a swimming pool. It's utter nonsense, and I'm glad I stayed out of it, as I will again next year. I refuse to be a guinea pig in this wagering experiment.

I haven't placed a bet in nearly 3 months. I am slowly, but surely, creeping away from this game. It's not just artificial surfaces or the Breeders Cup. It's a lot of things, like: every time there's a cloud in the sky, turf racing is cancelled... except yesterday, of course; the refusal to PERMANENTLY ban cheaters; the gimmicky marketing strategies aimed to attract people who will likely never have an interest in racing, while the REAL, TRUE fans of the sport in its purest form are constantly given the shaft; the scheduling of 100s of graded stakes races, when it's hard to even name 10 legitimately decent horses in the country; the constant call for "change", most of which has drastically changed the sport for long-time fans; the sudden and baseless assault on dirt racing; connections constantly ducking each other, a practice facilitated by the additional Cup races; and on and on and on...

Posted by: C on October 26, 2008 at 08:11 AM

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I really did not think collectively about those that finished in the top ten for the Breeders Cup races until Alan posted them, so congratulations to you men and women who did so well. It was interesting and fun to follow how everyone was doing these past few days.

Thanks,

Posted by: chicago gerry on October 26, 2008 at 11:24 AM

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Greg,

Congratulations on winning the FormBlog Contest.

Alan,

Thanks for organizing and running the contest. I know that took a lot of hard work and everyone on the blog appreciates that. And thanks to all who contributed prizes to the contest: johnnyz, Mike Romeo, larryk, rr, SR Vegas and Uncle Steve. It's that kind of dedication and comradrie that makes this blog great!

chicago gerry,

I like your attitude and sense of humor. You're always upbeat and manage to give me a chuckle. Thanks.

Posted by: Calvin Carter on October 26, 2008 at 11:25 AM

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I've decided that I'd like to give a consolation gift to the 2, 3, 4, finishers in y little BC day(s) contest. That included the 1st day winner Jeff, and the two 13.60 winners (on different horses!)!

I haven't figured out what it will be, but you'll like it.

It's free.

Please e-mail your shipping paticulars to

slewofdamascus@comcast.net

Thanks.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 26, 2008 at 12:19 PM

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I just woke up from a much needed super-extended sleep due to the past two days of pure adrenaline-filled excitement.
The top three Breeders' Cup moments (for me) were
1. big bad Lute's trouncing of the top sprinters in the country (the only thing better would have been he and BENNY both going from last to first)!
2. "Zenya's" domination in the F&M. She's our modern day Personal Ensign (not ready to call her the next Ruffian, though).
3. Even though he lost, Curlin's patented sweep by the rest of the field, with his head turned towards his competition on the inside, was thrilling. Who could have predicted AT THAT POINT that Curlin wasn't going to run away from them all as he did last year? Ironically, this race would have been much closer between Curlin and the Euros had it been 9F but I give FULL credit to Raven's Pass and Henry. Nobody was beating them yesterday! I'll stick my neck out and say that, with his extraordinary late acceleration, RP would have beaten anybody on ANY surface yesterday! Part of me winces when I say that because I am a HUGE Curlin fan; he has earned my respect and appreciation for two years now.

Now, for HOTY talk:
Even with his FIRST lifetime out-of-the-money finish, Curlin still deserves HOTY over the great Zenyatta. What did Zenya do wrong? NOTHING! Fine. Pepper's Pride didn't do anything wrong either! I like both of those fillies/mares. However, Curlin has been to Dubai, the East Coast, the West Coast, the Midwest to take on ALL international comers in the richest races! If IEAH owned Curlin, there is NO CHANCE (NONE!!!!!!!) that we would have had the pleasure of seeing this magnificent competitor throughout this year! Okay, Curlin lost, but NOT embarrassingly, twice this year: once on turf (without a single formal turf workout!) and once on Pro-Ride (though, unlike every other person in the media and beyond, I do NOT blame that surface for his loss!!!). His victories in Dubai, the Woodward, and the Jockey Club, though, sealed the deal on his deserved top-ranking.
Hear me: Voting for Zenyatta over Curlin for HOTY sends ONE message LOUD and CLEAR to horse owners: do not EVER take ANY chances with your horse no matter what the purse. Stay on your favorite surface against the SAME competition time and time again, even if you end up racing six times a year. A scratch is better than a loss. (This is NOT a knock against Zenyatta! She met all comers within her division this year and beat them all convincingly! She's awesome.)
The bottom line is that a vote against Curlin will GUARANTEE less competition, less sportsman/gamesmanship, and much earlier retirements!
I hope that Zenya and Curlin are both racing next year and, if Curlin runs a couple of times and Zenyatta runs throughout the year and does well, I'd be happy to demand that she be HOTY for 2009.

Posted by: John C. on October 26, 2008 at 12:24 PM

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C,

I really agree with your comments about Curlin vs. Euros, their prior accomplishments, and the Dirt vs. Pro-Ride issue.

Since it appears synthetic surfaces play differently at different times of day, and at different temperatures, I wonder how all of the Pro-Ride BC Winner and Place runners would have done, for example, at Keeneland.

It appears at least in the Claasic, and a few other races, the Pro-Ride surface offered a sweet spot- like a duck taking to water- type thing.

At present, it appears that synthetic surface are here to stay and synthetic tracks will be growing in number.

Don't go anywhere, we need your comments, and you just don't know how it is all going to turn out.

Like many, I don't particularly like synthetic surfaces, but I suppose things will work out in the end.

Dan,

I am not telling you anything you don't know but 9 of the 14
BC races were won by 3 riders.
Gomez (5), Dettori (2), and Smith (2).

Thanks,

Posted by: chicago gerry on October 26, 2008 at 12:26 PM

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Some thoughts and questions about yesterday's BC 25 at Oak Tree. What was Johnny Murtagh thinking in the BC Turf? Did he get information going up the backstretch that the race had changed from 1 1/2 miles to a mile? He was in a drive with Solider of Fortune with 5/8 left. How Solider of Fortune had anything left in the stretch was amazing to me.
I thought GoGo and Go Between looked like winners at the 1/2 mile pole. GoGo was sitting with a lap full of horse when he ran into traffic and that was it for him.
I was quite surprised to see Midshipman on the lead being closely pressed by Street Hero. Given the way the track was playing and given the fact that these two seemed to be horses that like to settle and make one run I thought both Gomez and Solis were going to be left holding the bag. Maybe there was nothing running behind them.
Kip Deville ran an outstanding race and only could get a runner up award for his efforts. Goldikova had the race of the day IMO. And Goldikova has lost twice to Zarkava? How good is Zarkava? Goldikova is very special but perhaps Zarkava breathes the air reserved for the best of all time.
I hope all of the bullies that wanted to see Curlin run in the Classic are happy. The connections of the horse knew what was best for the horse and they caved in to all of the winers who said he must run.
Last week Bob Baffert made the statement that Midnight Lute was finally back to where he was last year before the BC at Monmouth. Someone on here said there is no way he can know that. Well whoever made that comment has some crow to eat. I am not a Baffert fan. But he did an an absolutely tremendous job of training this horse.
And lastly, given yesterday's results, does anyone think next years BC will move from Santa Anita to a conventional dirt race track?

Posted by: Ray Manley on October 26, 2008 at 12:41 PM

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Dan,

Nice pick on Raven's Pass in the classic. I know from your book "Betting Maidens & 2-Year-Olds" that you like Elusive Quality and Gone West. I like them too.

I would have loved to seen how well Elusive Bluff performed in the Juvenile but he was scratched with a bruised foot.

Do you have any information on these Elusive Quality colts: Celtic Law (Elusive Quality-Mackie by Summer Squall); Smile Down On Me (Elusive Quality-Lavender by Smile).

I know that Smile is the same broodmare sire of Smarty Jones. Any information that you have, trainer, owner, when they may make their debut,etc., is greatly appreciated.

Thanks.

Posted by: Calvin Carter on October 26, 2008 at 12:43 PM

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C, I think the conclusions about the race are stark.

If you care about the American-made thoroughbred.

What the race proved - on a neutral surface, no more or less favorable to any of the big hitters - is that the euros are FAR SUPERIOR.

If you want to talk turf or synthetics, the best horses in the world - BY FAR (as yesterday clearly indicated) - are made in Saudi Arabia for the King. If they are not made there, they are made under his auspicies in places all over the globe, including Kentucky, so a few good ones may still be born here, but make no mistake, they are not "ours" (so to speak), we are simply priviliged to provide the grounds (thank you, King).

Those two thoroughbreds, RP and HTN, had never gone the distance, had to fly all the way to California, run on a surface they'd never been on, and KICKED you know what.

That should tell you that right now, we are a second rate power in the world of thoroughbreds.

How did this happen. It's very simple. Over the course of recent time, say 20 years (or more) the Saudis have used their tremendous wealth to buy everything, and many long-time, storied American breeding/racing operations came under foreign ownership. Did they sell out for the money? That's something you willo have to decide for yourselves, but this is a story, a history that should not be swept under the rug.

Wouldn't you be curious to know how it happened. Step, by painful step?

And it is painful to think about, at least for me.

If it isn't already, dirt will soon be an American-only enterprise, whose results will be unimportant to the greater turf/synthetic world of racing that the 21st century promises to be.

In may way, all those operations who sold out, one by one, little little, sold our collective souls. The blame lies solely on us.

I didn't count, but how many darley owned horses were prominent yesterday?

They own us. Better get used to it.

I am deeply interested in investigating exactly how this happened over the course of the last couple of decades or more.

I would link the following story, but I think it's important, so this from the bloodhorse, awithin the past week or so, and it will give you a pretty good idea about the state of things as it relates to our position:

"Alysheba to take up residence at Kentucky Horse Park"

"Until two-time Horse of the Year Cigar came along, ALYSHEBA (Alydar) was the world's richest Thoroughbred, with earnings of $6,679,242. Alysheba, who was known on the track as "America's horse," has spent the last eight years in the royal stables of HRH King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, after standing his first years at stud at William S. Farish's Lane's End Farm near Versailles, Kentucky.

He will soon arrive back home on his native soil thanks to King Abdullah, who is sending Alysheba to the Kentucky Horse Park as a gift to the American people.

"His Royal Highness King Abdullah realized how much Alysheba means to American racing fans and we are grateful for this magnanimous gift of one of his favorite horses to our country," John Nicholson, executive director of the Kentucky Horse Park said. "We are grateful as well for the great care His Majesty has provided for Alysheba."

"The king's only concern in returning Alysheba to the United States was that priority be given to Alysheba's well-being and that he be based somewhere that his fans could easily visit him -- hence the choice of the Kentucky Horse Park," said Frank McGovern, general manager of the king's stables.

"Shipping a 24-year-old horse is not without risk so we had to take every precaution to ensure that the process was stress free," he continued. "Alysheba's comfort and safety were of such importance to the king that his two-month pre-export quarantine was spent in the luxury of the ultra-modern Nad Al Sheba Quarantine Centre in Dubai. We are very thankful to the Nad Al Sheba Quarantine team for the care and attention that they gave Alysheba during his stay there."

Bred by Preston Madden at Hamburg Place near Lexington, Kentucky, Alysheba was sold as a Keeneland July yearling to Dorothy and Pam Scharbauer for $500,000. They campaigned him under the guidance of Hall of Fame trainer Jack Van Berg.

"He stuck out like a diamond in a rock pile," Van Berg once said, before later observing, "He was so smart he knew what he was doing all the time."

Alysheba won the 1987 Kentucky Derby (G1), Preakness S. (G1), Super Derby (G1), and an Eclipse Award as champion three-year-old colt. As a four-year-old, he was even better, winning six Grade 1 stakes -- Charles H. Strub S., Santa Anita H., Philip H. Iselin H., Woodward S., Meadowlands Cup and the Breeders' Cup Classic -- en route to being named Horse of the Year. His career highlights also included track records for 1 1/4 miles at Belmont and The Meadowlands. Along the way, he defeated the likes of Risen Star, Forty Niner, Bet Twice and Seeking the Gold.

"Alysheba will live out the rest of his life on his native soil, in a Bluegrass pasture surrounded by white plank fences and old oak trees, where his fans can visit him daily," Nicholson said. "It's the kind of fairy tale ending that every champion -- every horse -- deserves, and the generosity of King Abdullah has made this possible for Alysheba."

The 24-year-old stallion will take up residence in the stall formerly occupied by another Horse of the Year, John Henry, which is already outfitted with a heater and well-suited for an older horse. Since Alysheba has been in a very hot climate for the past several years, it will make his transition more comfortable by ensuring he stays warm enough until his winter coat develops. He will live across the aisle from Cigar, the third-leading money-earning Thoroughbred of all time.

"It's a very good day for Kentucky when one of our homebred, Kentucky Derby-winning stallions returns," Nicholson concluded. "We invite all of Alysheba's fans to the Kentucky Horse Park to make him feel welcomed."

The public is invited to the Kentucky Horse Park for Alysheba's Welcome Home Reception at 1:15 p.m. (EDT) on Oct 31 in the Hall of Champions."

End of quotation.

This isn't about nationalism or anything like that. It's about selling off a national treasure, don't get upset (it's too late), because it's already happened, and the momentum is so strong it can't be altered or changed.

We are a 2nd rate power, even if perception has yet to catch up to that reality.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 26, 2008 at 12:47 PM

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CONGRATULATIONS!!!! Greg.

Wow, the contest went just like the Breeders Cup races. Katie and I were battling head to head in the stretch and then Greg came swooping by and passed us both. I was actually ahead after the Sprint, then Katie passed me in the Turf and Greg won in the final jump in the Classic. Very exciting, just like racing! lol

But, we Blue Thongs acquitted outselves very well in this male dominated sport, especially against the group of knowledgable handicappers on this blog. Congrats, Katie, on taking second.
And, Alan, thanks so much for running this great contest! I know it must have been alot of work. It really helped to keep us all focused and up to date on the horses leading up to the BC. And, thanks to all who donated prizes! It really spurred a person to try hard to win them. lol

Steve T talks about his nemesis, Rutherienne. Well, Forever Together is mine. If I had taken her EITHER time she ran, I would have not only won this contest, but I would be going to the NHC in Vegas via the Breeders Cup Challenge. Worst part is, I had really, really considered her both times.

Luckily, I did have a very good day yesterday. Makes a person feel better. lol Curlin lost me the Pick 6 and Pick 4 (have to single somewhere), but I did manage to get 5 of 6, and one Pick 3. Also the super with Midnite Lute (not a very big one). Those, with the Goldikova/Kip exacta and a win bet on Albertus made it a very nice day. Went out last night and celebrated.

SR Vegas,

Your Pretty Grey Horses did pretty good. Of the 11 running, 6 finished in the money. Two firsts, one second and three thirds. And Delightful Kiss managed to get in the super.

We got to see some beautiful performances the last two days, but it sure is exhausting having them two days in a row. I would just as soon they run them two consecutive Saturdays, but would like to see the original BC races on the same day. Hope everyone at least made some money over the two days.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on October 26, 2008 at 12:49 PM

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JimTully, you probably didn't notice but Tiago blew the start by about 3 lengths, now whether that made a difference, I kind of doubt it because of his running style, which is too far back, but still I think it's obvious that he was primed for the race, and there are many scenerios, without the euro presence, that has him beating everyone else, and we saw one of those scenerios yesterday. He beat everyone but the euros, and did it on a neutral surface, the kind of surface that does, I think, give equal chances to both euros and americans.

But anyway, on the exacta question, I was so messed up psychologically, that I wasn't able to use the pari-mutuel system to effectively cover my opinions.

I'm going on sabbatical, with lots of studying and reading, in the hopes of fixing some of the glaring holes in my game. The good thing is, I know what's wrong, I know where the majority of the fault lies. I'm in the shop for self-repairs.

As for Tiago, I couldn't be prouder of his effort, and I was in pain, real pain (I'm old), after rooting so hard!

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 26, 2008 at 01:01 PM

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Oh for hindsight beforehand!
Was just doing the post mortem here and shaking my head after realizing what I should have done yesterday.

Turf Mile - I absolutely loved Goldikova! (Took Kip in the contest because I felt Goldi would go off at very low odds, which she did).
Single Goldikova.

Juvenile - Midshipman had BY FAR the best clockers comment of all of them. (Took Gallant Son in contest, trying to get a price somewhere).
Single Midshipman

Juv. Turf - Take 5 of the 6 lowest morning line odds, leaving out Skipadate (Negative clocker comment).
Take 5 of them, including Donativum.

Sprint - Love Midnight Lute!!
Looking like champ he was.
Single Midnight Lute.

Turf - Take 5 lowest odd horses.
Take 5 of them, including Conduit.

Classic - Take 2 lowest odd horses.
Take Curlin and Raven's Pass.

$100 = $55,000

OK, that's enough Post Mortem.
Sigh!

Annie

Posted by: Annie on October 26, 2008 at 01:29 PM

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Dan,

As you were counting on Fatal Bullet to sit a length or two off the pace from the cozy outside post as I was what was your reaction when he rocketed to the front for a first quarter in 21 1/5? This was the last leg in my BC Handigambling parlay of which the first three came in (Ventura, Stardom Bound, and Zenyatta) so with $1700 to win @ 5-1 I stood to hit the $10k mark. I believe two problems occurred. One, Bob Who’s every move (Hock and foot treatment, Z bar training shoe, and taking the blinkers off) worked perfectly and two, Eurico Rosa Da Silva’s inexperience got to him and he moved prematurely. Do you believe if he had laid a bit off the pace he would’ve held off Lute? I believe he would have been 50/50 to hold.

Jeannine Edwards on the ESPN coverage reported after the race Reade Baker, FB’s trainer, was staring at the fractions on the Tote Board and said, “I just ran a 1:07 and 2 and lost.” Reade, you had the greatest jockey’s in the world on track to choose from but stayed loyal to “your guy”. Espinosa, Kent, and Prado are three of the greatest, if not the three greatest, sprint stalking jocks alive and they were all available a month ago. It took Frankel and Pletcher 30 some odd races to win a BC event. When you have the horseflesh you need every edge you can get. The late great Bud Delp would have told you as much.

Posted by: Mathieu on October 26, 2008 at 02:20 PM

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I don't care if the most dominant horse of the year ran on turf, dirt, synthetic, marshmallows or quick-sand. ZENYATTA deserves the Horse of the Year award. She can't help it that California has synthetic tracks, she didn't lay them down, she just runs over them. She also went to Oaklawn, running on dirt, and was every bit as dominant on that track as she is on synthetic.

All the excuses for CURLIN are pitiful ones. I like CURLIN a lot, and I think he's a great horse (but less "great" than SPECTACULAR BID, FOREGO, SECRETARIAT, SEATTLE SLEW and AFFIRMED). He didn't get beat by Pro-Ride, or by the hot weather, or by any other absurdity. He got beat by RAVEN'S PASS, HENRYTHENAVIGATOR and TIAGO.

ZENYATTA won every race she competed in this year, including several grade 1's, and she dominated the filly & mare division. She defeated HYSTERICALADY (twice), GINGER PUNCH (twice), TOUGH TIZ'S SIS (three times), COCOA BEACH, MUSIC NOTE, CARRIAGE TRAIL, etc.

CURLIN (in the USA in 2008) won the Clark, the Woodward and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which is excellent! However, he lost the Man O' War and was 4th in the Classic. 5 starts, 3 wins, 1 second is his record. ZENYATTA is undefeated, which is much better.

I don't think a horse should be crowned Horse of the Year based on excuses, but on accomplishments, and ZENYATTA accomplished the most, without ever relying on excuses. The BIG BROWN people lived the second half of the year is Excuse-Land, and it looks like CURLIN's people have joined them there.

ZENYATTA deserves the Horse of the Year award (just like AZERI deserved hers).

Posted by: Mike S on October 26, 2008 at 02:24 PM

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I'm still trying to recover.

Would have been nice to know that "general admission" doesn't actually get you a seat. I spent most of the day on one of the benches down by the rail and am burned to a crisp. I also now have to watch my DVR to actually *see* the races... But it was amzing nevertheless. What a presence Curlin has. Very disappointing that he lost -- I mean, Raven's Pass and Henry are top horses, but you can't tell me that Tiago is better than Curlin, any more than Dare and Go was better than Cigar -- but he looked OK coming back; there were NO breakdowns all of Fri/Sat, no one even eased that I saw. There were hoses trackside to counter the terrible heat and quite a few horses took advantage of them, but no one suffered heat exhaustion on the track.

I hope to go back for both days next year, IF I can afford the more expensive seating.

I also will be back sooner than that for regular racing -- didn't quite realize it's only just over an hour from my house!

My handicapping stunk. I had 3rd choices winning, 2 out of 3 trifecta horses coming in, etc. all weekend. Should NOT try to beat what I know is the best horse (Midnight Lute, Stardom Bound) in the name of 'value'. Should NOT let 'people' talk me off horses like Maram and Mohannak that I recognize as competitors. Should have recognized that Curlin was over the top -- which is what I suspect rather than the surface. But does anyone else think that we'll never, ever see Steve Asmussen back in California again? I did have Midshipman.

Somewhat under the radar because it wasn't a BC race, but Into Mischief looked incredible in the paddock and winning the Damascus. Look for him right back in a graded stake next time, I would think. Gayego definitely seemed to need one and should improve off this start.

See y'all next year :)

Posted by: Kyri on October 26, 2008 at 02:34 PM

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Oh, and also:

the Divine Zenyatta is Horse of the Year.

Posted by: Kyri on October 26, 2008 at 02:36 PM

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Hollywood starts on Wednesday? Did Oak Tree concede a week or two in order to host the BC? After this weekend it's like going on vacation with Christy Turlington and then coming home to Mrs. Roper.

Posted by: Mathieu on October 26, 2008 at 02:52 PM

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We're getting our first snow today. It won't stay, but it's swirling around out there now. Thankfully, it was still nice enough yesterday when I had to go out.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on October 26, 2008 at 02:53 PM

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Good afternoon, all....

Back from the races myself (photolink to follow - you gotta see the "wacko with the chainsaw" who chased us into the woods for the first 1/2 mile!)
but I want to thank both Alan, the contest organizer, and the kind prize suppliers (rr and larryk) whose largesse I will very much enjoy.

It was a great experience for the past few months, and proved to me the great value of something the wise and good SR Vegas does all the time: enjoys the sport without spending a dime!
I made a few small bets with real money both days, but I genuinely had more fun working out my contest picks, especially because I knew that to do well, I had to take a few chances.

That being said, I am now inspired to try my hand at some qualifying NHC contests next year...just as with running, you can train, but then you gotta race to see how good you really are!

Thanks to Dan for hosting this excellent motley crew!

Where's the bengay and Advil? I'm beat!

Katieattherail

Posted by: Katieattherail on October 26, 2008 at 04:16 PM

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Congratulations, Greg, Katie & Annie

You 3 all had an awesome BC and it is a shame only one is the winner you all deserved it with your preformance over the last 2 days.

It was really fun having to handicapping races I would not ordinarily have leading up to the Breeders Cup. Next year I will pay better attention to the Euros, they are much better perpared to travel a distance on ground than we are, I believe most having their own "yards", are not confined to regular AM training hour as we have gives them a big edge.

**ALAN**

Thank you so much for all your time in the contest, and I was very happy to read you had a good day betting, it is amazing how you manage to jugle all this and keep a wife happy, she must be an amazing woman, and give her big huge from all of us who had so much fun in this contest.

Sincerely, Buffalo Joe

Posted by: Buffalo Joe on October 26, 2008 at 05:04 PM

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well said, mathieu!

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 26, 2008 at 05:06 PM

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ps - that's why Casual Lies (Gary Stevens), a very neat horse, ran 2nd behind Lil E Tee when running the race of his life, and not 4th. With all due respect to Allan Patterson, of course (the rider she was supposed to be "loyal" to).

Now, what Eibar Coa did with Lewis Michael?

To me, that was a case of a jockey paying no attention to what was happening on the track. And that was in evidence since Friday. You can't win being up close on a hot pace, simple as that. And you will want to note horses who put in good efforts up close but were passed in the stretch.

That track was unfavorable to speed, at any distance.

I'm going to remember the fact that coa could not adapt to a track bias, I mean that's important to know. I can actually use that.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 26, 2008 at 05:14 PM

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Mike S,
Curlin won the Stephen Foster not the Clark. The Clark will be run at Churchill on November 28th. And who knows, maybe Curlin will show up. I doubt it, I believe Curlin will be retired.

And if I had a vote for Horse of the Year I would give it to Curlin.

Posted by: Ray Manley on October 26, 2008 at 05:17 PM

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MikeS, I don't agree that people who considered BB special were living in excuse-land the 2nd half of the year. He won his last 2 starts, one in super game fashion, and the other in a way that cowed many observers, myself included.

I do agree, however, that Zenyatta should be HOY.

I have great respect for Curlin. Someone recently pointed to Alysheba's accomplishments at 4, and they dwarf Curlin's. He's not in that league, but because we don't produce truly great dirt horses on a regular basis anymore, for the reasons I explained above, he starts to look better than he really is. He's the best horse we have on the dirt, at the moment, warts and all. He has aquited himself quite well in the process. Rather than Alysheba, I'd say he's more like Bet Twice, who wasn't as great as Alysheba, but could jump up with some great efforts that were good enough to beat Alysheba. That's my opinion, anyway.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 26, 2008 at 05:48 PM

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Is it true that Curlin's move on the turn gave him a 4th quarter in just under 23 seconds?? Or is that misprint? If so, what was Robby thinking? Although as many predicted, Tiago has the race of his life in him, if Robby had ridden Curlin to the wire, I think Tiago wouldn't have gotten past him. This is what hurts, to have Curlin finish off the board for the first time because a jock has started "the mourning process" just a little too soon.

Even Gosden said that the pro-ride gave his horse an advantage. I think Curlin ran a very respectable race (he just shouldn't have been passed by Tiago!!).

Posted by: Kat on October 26, 2008 at 06:26 PM

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Slew,

"who put in good efforts up close, but were passed in the stretch." That would be me and Katie? lol

Annie

Posted by: Annie on October 26, 2008 at 06:28 PM

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Yes, you're right, CURLIN won the Stephen Foster, not the Clark. I forgot which race is held in June, and which one is held in November.

Based on a record of 5 sts, 3 wins, 1 second, 0 third, I would say CURLIN does not deserve Horse of the Year. Whatever he did in Dubai shouldn't matter to our voting for our Horse of the Year, as the UAE is not part of the USA.

ZENYATTA accomplished so much more.

Posted by: Mike S on October 26, 2008 at 06:32 PM

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Mike S,
Thanks for the geography lesson. I had no idea.

Posted by: Ray Manley on October 26, 2008 at 06:59 PM

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Greg,
Congratulations on an impressive come from behind win.

Katieontherail, Annie, Larryk,
Very impressive showing to finish in the top four in the contest, well done!

Mike Romeo

Posted by: Mike Romeo on October 26, 2008 at 07:30 PM

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Regarding Curlin going wide. This track kills wide horses around the turn. If you are 4-wide or worse while taking the trek around the far turn, at any distance, you are probably done. That's why Cost Of Freedom's race was so amazing, he went right into the teeth of it.

This track is too small, it was one of the complaints going into the championships.

Tiago, actually did the smart thing, I mean Mike Smith (smile), by waiting to go because he would have been in the same boat as Curlin. He let Curlin go by, kept his inside position, then closed with his best run, chasing Curlin, which was pretty awesome. I love the fact he finished in front of Curlin, but I don't think he's better than Curlin (necessarily - smile).

I think, quite honestly, they should move the venue for next year, which won't happen, of course.

Speaking of COF, another vet scratch! How bad did he have to be? Pretty bad, I'd imagine, to be scratched out of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. He was a vet scratch, according to what Dan reported, in the Pirate's Bounty.

I wish someone could tell us what is going on with him. Tread carefully (assuming we see him again?).

Posted by: slewofdamascus on October 26, 2008 at 08:03 PM

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Buffalo Joe,

Thank you! I was feeling a little left out. Sob

It sure was an exciting two days, but I am exhausted. Of course, I went out last night besides. I sure wouldn't have been able to go running today, like Katie did. lol

Annie

Posted by: Annie on October 26, 2008 at 08:15 PM

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Slew,

I don't think this one Classic proves that the Euros are better. I don't think this Classic had the older horse firepower of past Classics, other than Curlin. And the three year olds, other than BB are not really that great. But, that is this year. Who knows what next year will bring. That's why each new year is exciting to look forward to.

And, the people with money have always bought the best bred babies. For awhile the Japanese were buying up everything. And they get burnt big time plenty of times. And alot of the best ones were not the most expensive purchases. So, I just look forward to each new season to see what we will see.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on October 26, 2008 at 08:32 PM

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Annie,

I did some math on your picks on BC Saturday and came up with a total for you that you may find interesting.

*

Oh for hindsight beforehand!
Was just doing the post mortem here and shaking my head after realizing what I should have done yesterday.

Turf Mile - I absolutely loved Goldikova!

Single Goldikova.

Juvenile - Midshipman had BY FAR the best clockers comment of all of them.

Single Midshipman

Sprint - Love Midnight Lute!!
Looking like champ he was.

Single Midnight Lute.

*

If you had placed $50 to win starting with Goldikova and parlayed the proceeds unto the others you would have cleared $2800. The amount you start with obviously is determined by your bankroll but constructing the wager as a parlay plays to the races and selections YOU favor, not a P3 or P4 pot where the kitty is sweetened to encourage reaching in races you don't have a feel for.

Just a thought on your post mortem.

Posted by: Mathieu on October 26, 2008 at 08:54 PM

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