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FormBlog | December 02, 2008
Lots of questions, pp requests
I have a general question about sires - why do we get rid of most of our good turf sires? It seems we just ship them off to another corner of the world.
Steve T.
My high school social studies teacher, Mrs. Lyon, used to tell us that the answer to most of the world's perplexing questions boils down to this:
"It's all about the money!"
It's easier to sell a Tale of a Cat than a Northern Spur, and since homebred dynasties are just about extinct, this is an auction market more than anything else.
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Dan,
You wrote:
"In this case, he was stepping up after earning a Beyer that we all questioned, and probably was a bit inflated."
My question is: if SOME Beyers are questionable, how can anyone be sure that ANY of them are actually reliable? If you question 1, don't you have to question ALL? I have yet to meet a "skeptical Beyer believer/user" who can answer that question.
C
That's the whole point, isn't it? We have to take the information given to us, and question whether or not to believe it. I think that even the most ardent speed figure fan will question a number if it doesn't look right. The Beyers obviously aren't infallible. They're a guide, and we've shown on the blog that projections are made on many, many occasions. Are they reliable? I think they are for the most part, and "for the most part" is pretty good in this perplexing game. Should speed figures be questioned? Absolutely. That's why there's pace analysis, trip handicapping, and other factors out there to make handicapping the most difficult/pleasurable/frustrating/stimulating challenge in all of sports. I wouldn't advise anyone to blindly bet on a number without visual analysis to back up the mathematical data. Can a handicapping tool be reliable yet be questioned at the same time? I don't see why not.
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Dan or anyone ,
I've been following the track trends that appear on the drf simulcast daily and aqueduct was described as a "dull" track for fri. sat. and sun. what does this mean and how should it be incorporated into evaluating the horses who ran over it next time out.
thanks for any info.
tbone
A "dull" track might yield slower times than usual, and could be slightly favorable to closers. I would go over the charts for the races on those days, and look to see if one running style did better than others. If there was a bias in attendance, you may want to play horses coming back that were compromised by the track.
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All with an opinion,
I have always found it interesting that in Europe it is common place for fillies and mares to race and win against male competitors. In the U.S. it always seems to be a big deal when you see a female taking on the males in a major stakes.
Why such a contrast? Are females better in Europe vs European males than are American females vs American males in the U.S.? Why? Is this just a myth? Is there that much of a breeding difference in Euro females compared to American females?
What gives?
Lilly
In Europe, the big races are for open runners. While there are some group races restricted to fillies and mares, the big money is for all comers. There aren't as many stakes opportunities in Europe as compared to the United States. Here, trainers can pick and choose among restricted races with good purses. Why run against males when you can run against members of your own sex? In Europe, if you want to make money as an older filly or mare, you have to run against the boys.
I think American fillies and mares would win their fair share if they were given the opportunity to run against males in this country. We see it happen in two-year-old races as well as in shorter distance races, but trainers have to answer to owners, and when you could run for just as much money in an "easier" spot against fillies, it's hard to justify the risk of taking on colts.
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Dan Looking at Kingmambo in a lot of pedigrees. Can we look at his lifetime PP's.
Craig
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Dan, Everybody,
Would you all mind taking a look at a race for me and tell me what you think - race 6 at Hollywood yesterday. Watch the 4 Spanish Bunny (who I absolutely unloaded on). She is well positioned coming into the stretch, and then aggressively starts to move into contention and then stalls - and it certainly didn't look like it was a distance issue - was it an issue with passing horses? Like maybe she needs blinkers? I am absolutely perplexed as to why she didn't win. Now, take a look at Race 3, another UH, Mensa Heat, did exactly the same thing. I would REALLY like others opinions on these two, cause I can;t explain it - both looked for all the world like they were going to win and then... Thanks
Steve T.
I just don't think Spanish Bunny was very good. She seemed a bit eager coming out of the gate, but soon was in a nice spot just off the leaders. Perhaps blinkers would allow her to settle down better, but she seemed to be trying her best in the lane, and was simply outkicked.
Mensa Heat ran okay, but she had the run of the rails turning for home, and wasn't good enough. She was overmatched in the Generous in her next start, and might be one to watch as she returns to her proper level. Maybe blinkers would wake her up a bit, but I just wasn't wowed by either performance. It's possible they both need lighter competition.
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Dan
This is an article from the Courier Journal about CDI possibly interested in buying TVG. Would this be a good thing or a bad thing if it happened? It might help alleviate some of the disarray and confusion surrounding ADWs, but it might also give Churchill too much control and consolidated power over the airwaves.
http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20081123/BUSINESS/811230470/1037/SPORTS08
Also, can anyone answer this for me...why doesn't twinspires.com merge with xpressbet.com? Some sort of anti-trust thing? Seems to me that Churchill has the money to spend (based on the numbers released during the Q3 conference call) and Magna needs all the revenue it can get.
g or g
If CDI purchased TVG, you probably would have a lot of happy account-wagering holders as the partnership would likely show Churchill, Fair Grounds, Calder, and Arlington along with the TVG tracks (NYRA, etc).
Whether this would affect TVG's existing deals with Magna tracks (and whether Stronach would pull out) is another story. Would Gulfstream (for example) pull out due to TVG and CDI becoming one and the same? I'm not a fan of racetracks controlling media outlets, but if you could get more eyeballs and money into the game via wagering and television, then that's a good thing overall for the industry. I just think CD would be in a great position of power to control source fees, and might drive tracks away that won't match their price.
Considering the state of the economy combined with the state of the Magna stock, I think CDI is doing the right thing by waiting out xpressbet. Why spend the money now to help out the competition when it's quite possible that Magna will eventually throw in the towel, and CDI could get everything for a vastly-reduced price?
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Tinky, Blue, Dan, Everybody,
I would really like to explore the whole idea about where progeny fall out in relationship to their dam and sire for surface and distance, and what a realistic predictive analysis of their performance should be. Since I know Unusual Heat extremely well, would you mind using him for our analysis? He is a California sire versus the "name" sires, but is no slouch either. So figure he is not going to get the RTR's of the world, but will get some nice CalBred mares.
Dan,
Would you mind posting the lifetime PP's for Unusual Heat, his sire Nureyev and his dam Rossard?
Steve T.
Here's what I have. Past performances for Nureyev aren't complete, and I'm not sure if Rossard's pp's are complete as well. I'm not sure if distance, class, or surface factors from the sire and dam alone are conclusive predictors as to a foal's chances at success at said distance, class, or surface. That's why the old saying is "breed the best to the best, and hope for the best." Conformation, soundness, and class of the entire female family are only three of the many other factors that affect breeding.
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dan, you cant hit anything, can you
horses
Mom, I told you not to bother me at work.
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Dan, can you post Dixieland Band's past performances?
Please?
Paseana80
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CAN YOU PLEASE GIVE AN UPDATE ON WANDERIN BOY?
rsdcpa
Rsdcpa,
According to the NTRA article I read on the race, Wanderin Boy, was put down ( RIP, big boy ). He apparently shattered his left front.
Craig
***
Does anyone know if War Pass was retired?
vince
War Pass will stand his first season at stud next year at Lane's End Farm in Kentucky for a $30,000 fee.
***
Why do people insist on talking Derby contenders in November? It is too early, for Godsakes.
jim tully
It is too early, but it's just so much fun trying to find a diamond in the rough. Here are the Derby Future Book Odds from Lucky's Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas:
Old Fashioned is the chalk at 12-1 followed by Vineyard Haven and Midshipman at 20-1.
***
Dan,
Has any filly or mare ever been awarded a 120 Beyer? In researching it I could find two who received 119's (Inside Information in the 95 BC Distaff and Hidden Lake in the 1997 Hempstead) but no 120's.
Steve T
Xtra Heat earned a 120 for her dominating win in the Sweet 'n' Sassy Stakes at Delaware in 2001
***
Dan,can you print Wanderin' Boys PP's.He was a neat old horse that had to overcome a lot before he even made it to the races
never_bend
***
Back with some more questions, and the HandiGambling pick in tomorrow's blog.
Take care,
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on December 2, 2008 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
Another OLA story featuring Gary.
Hollywood Park Wed.
Gary was walking down the street looking for the ENLIGHTENED LADY of his life. They had met on a LIBERIAN FREIGHTER that they were both had worked on. They were going to lunch at their usual place, as was KYLIE'S WAY. She was a very KIND LADY who had had previous CONTENTIOUS relationships with several men. But not Gary. They were perfect for each other.
After lunch they headed FOR THE HOUSE for a little H & G, Handicapping and Gambling.
Posted by: tencentcielo on December 02, 2008 at 03:51 PM
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HG
I'm expecting the #1 entry to be overbet. Looking for value here. Hoping #9 Aegean Breeze comes alive on this track and relaxes enough to manage speed. Like the turnback to 6F after the last 1 mile helped hold speed.
$10 exacta 2,4,6,10/9
$10 exacta 9/2,4,6,10
$5 tri 1/4,6/9
$5 tri 1/9/4,6
Very, very open race. Excellent choice, Paulie Walnuts!
Posted by: Bryan on December 02, 2008 at 04:32 PM
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Dan,
First of all hope you are doing great, my good friend.
I wanted you to take a look at the trip that Cee Bargara (GB) had on the 9th. race of November 22nd. at Hollywood Park. He was my Pick 4 single that day, and I think with a better trip, he should have won that race easily. Solis was looking for a way thru with him from the 3/8's pole on, and when turning for the home stretch, he had no choice but turn six or seven wide, entering last in the home stretch, but flying late to grab the show spot. Keep an eye on him next time out.
Ivan
Posted by: Ivan on December 02, 2008 at 04:51 PM
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For the HG 112:
I just can not get thru the #1 entry. It is too powerful an entry to be overlooked, so I will construct some exotics around them, qith other horses that have already excelled on the Aqueduct Inner Dirt track:
$8 TriBox 1,2,10 ($48)
$2 SuperFecta Box 1,2,9,10 ($48)
$4 for the Xmas pot.
Tx
Posted by: Ivan on December 02, 2008 at 05:12 PM
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HG
#6 Megadeed three back at SAR was a very fast race on turf. Blinkers on for new connections will go overlaid odds.
$1 super 6/1,4,7,9,10/1,3,4,7,9,10/1,3,4,7,9,10.
Posted by: crazy rob on December 02, 2008 at 05:45 PM
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In the last couple of weeks I have been through literally thousands of pedigrees, looking to see what family carries on and trying to discern who can do what distance and surface wise. Here are a couple of thoughts that are experiential and not backed by the full force and credit (HA!) of the United States:
Storm Cat may have been a high dollar breed, but he seems to have MANY more misses than hits - I can't even count the number of mares who had serious runners with other sires and then nothing from Storm Cat at all. Miesque is a classic example - her three breedings with Storm Cat produced absolutely nothing, where the breeding with Right Account produced East of the Moon, and the Mr. Prospectors included Kingmambo. Another great example is the kick-ass California mare Cara Rafaela, a hell of a runner in her own right and the dam of Bernardini (by A.P. Indy). The owners chose not to return to A.P. Indy, instead breeding three times to Storm Cat, producing one semi-decent runner and two barn ponies. Hopefully they will rebreed to A.P. Indy…
I have to wonder if the lack of distance sires isn't really just the fact that we don't run 10F+ races much anymore and they can't get the distance when there are no races. Kingmambo never ran a race longer than a mile and he is viewed as one of the predominant distance sires. Looking at the PP's for Unusual Heat and Rossard makes me think that they too are underestimated for distance - he won easily at 9F and 8.5F but was never raced at 10F+. Rossard has a very nice distance influenced pedigree that carried her to multiple 10F wins. But yet again, without the overall stats it is just a guess. When we talk about a sire who “gets mostly milers” I think we need to put an asterisk next to that because we just don’t run them. Here is the most current distribution of races in the United States by distance:
12F 40 0.1%
* Includes 1 mile 70 yards and 1 mile 40 yards
TOTAL FOR ALL ROUTES: 18,270 35%
If you remove the one mile races, you are down to 12.9% of all races, and if you remove the 8.5 and 9F races you are left with a grand total of 360 races out of the 52,265 races run that are at 9.5F or greater, that is 7/10 of one percent!!
I am becoming more enamored with Ribot, who seems to really add something to runners, especially the line through his son Graustark. Best known as the sire of Arts and Letters and Tom Rolfe, he seems to be one whose bloodlines run deep into modern breeding. Graustark is compelling because of not only his sire Ribot, but also his dam Flower Bowl, who threw two other very nice colts in His Majesty and Cup Race and a dominant filly in Bowl of Flowers (16-10-3-3, $400K from the early 60's).
The other sire that keeps popping up is Private Account, by Damascus out of the Buckpasser mare Numbered Account - her daughter Dance Number (by Northern Dancer) is one hell of a producer, including millionaire Rhythm. To say that Private Account was a sire of good fillies is an understatement - two of them were among the best fillies in the last 40 years, Personal Ensign and Inside Information. He also sired Valley Crossing, Personal Flag, Private Purse and Public Terms on the male side.
What is interesting is that the progeny of the "top sires" standing at $300K don't seem much different in their earning power than the Unusual Heats who stands at $12.5K. Guess one is really meant to impress at the auction and the other producers runners.
Posted by: Steve T. on December 02, 2008 at 05:51 PM
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Dan, I have opinions on three of the questions you answered:
1. On Beyers. I would compare an inflated Beyer to a football game where the loser's quarterback got injured, they were the victim of a questionable call or two, and turned the ball over uncharacteristically in the red zone two times. This resulted in a 24-14 loss. Is that it? Is the winner 10 points better than the loser? Not necessarily...circumstances during the game influenced the outcome. The same with the Beyer Speed Figure. They represent one thing and one thing only: the final time of the race (plus beaten lengths for losers). Read "The Winning Horseplayer" by Andy Beyer, where he explains all of this.
2. Dixieland Band was not a superior racehorse by any means. Being by Northner Dancer back then was a lot like being by Storm Cat today, but I wonder how he got support at stud and developed into the classy sire he became.
3. On Filly Beyers, I'm pretty sure Princess Rooney ran a big one in the inaugural Breeders' Cup Distaff. Was it 119?
Posted by: Steve D on December 02, 2008 at 06:41 PM
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AQUEDUCT – Race 7 (Wednesday 12-03-2008)
Pace Scenario: There are a lot of pacesetters in this race – the 2, 2A, 3, 5, 7, 8 and 9 will all be looking for the lead. That’s not a barbeque, that’s a forest fire. The bad part is that by their PP’s, if they don’t get the lead, they do nothing. Which is strongest? I think the Finger Lake filly Instant Lady gets there first. With this amount of speed it should be a paved road for the 1/1A entry mates to drive on by in the stretch. I really think they are a shoe-in here.
1 CATTY MADELINE – was a solid 2 for 4 on turf in statebreds and now tries the main track. Levine has an otherworldly stat for turf to dirt at 36%, coming off of short layoffs is 35% and the team with Castro is 38%. Just off of those three figures alone you have to consider.
1A RIZZI’S TWIST – another Levine starter who has some very good credentials, her last at this level a solid win at this distance. Won on the inner track at the OC-75K level last January. A nice complement to the 1. Hard to carp about the 2 for 1 angle here. Plus Levine and Dominguez are at 45% at Aqueduct/
2 ANITA ROSITA – is all over the place, winning a $61K N1X and then finishing dead last in an OC-25K next out. Even at her best she is waaayy behind the others. Pass.
2A SO SMASHLEY – an awful lot like her entry mate, but does seem to like the inner track some. Another who could benefit from the jockey change, but she has yet to win at this distance. I will take a chance and toss her.
3 ALL ABOUT ALLISON – not a lot of question on whether she can make the corner in front, more about whether she is still there at the finish and whether she continues to progress off of a 27 month layoff. Think a higher probability that she fades, but not as much as her last. Good pick for unders.
4 SORORITY SISTER – seems to have slowed down some after a very good summer, and seems to relish off tracks with two wins and a close third in off going. Picks Coa back up for the ride which is a plus. Probably a bit light for this group.
5 INSTANT LADY – a Finger Lakes refugee who has good early speed. But these are way more than I think she is used to. Pass.
6 MEGADEED – had three very nice turf runs and last was not great. Returns to the inner track with a mediocre dirt resume. Don’t like the change in barns or the 0% team stat. Next.
7 SWEPT THE SERIES – is one on the on-off-on-off bandwagon, and this time should be “on”. As long as the track is fast and dry she merits a look. This is first time for Maragh with Serpe. Could be a nice upper under (upper under? Damn, that is messed up) or a stretch for the win. Keep an eye on the board.
8 SEASONS WISE – another pacesetter (can you say “fire in the hole!”) who has been up the track in her dirt runs on a dry track. Her two wins are both on turf, trainer and jockey stats are light, last win was at Saratoga on a sloppy track. Unless it rains, she is a no for me.
9 AEGEAN BREEZE – is intriguing because of her record on the inner track at Aqueduct, with two wins and a place from her four runs. Recent form is horrid, works are slow and you have a 5% trainer with a 9% jockey. I shouldn’t, really I shouldn’t, but…
10 WAYTOTHELEFT – best runs by far are on the grass, and although they were at a higher level her last three dirt runs were terrible. Could respond to the change in jocks, but want to see a solid effort before backing her.
WAGER STRATEGY
So I think that the 1/1A combo is a very strong win possibility and will probably have some seriously low odds. But there really isn’t a clear cut place horse at the party so I am going to use my exacta wheel here and hope for one of the big odds runners to get the place.
HANDIGAMBLING 112 WAGERS
$10EX Wheel 1/ALL ($80)
$2 TRI 1 over the 2/5/9 ($12)
$2 TRI 1 over the 5/7 ($4)
$2 TRI 1 over the 8/9 ($4)
Posted by: Steve T. on December 02, 2008 at 06:46 PM
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HG 112
The Levine entry is not unbeatable, but still might be an OK tri play. Guessing that the 6, 7, and 10 might show up tomorrow as well.
$20 Tri: 1/6,7/6,7,10 ($80)
$5 Tri: 6,7/1/6,7,10 ($20)
Best of luck to all,
John N.
Posted by: John N. on December 02, 2008 at 06:59 PM
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Johnnyz,
I like talking Derby too.
You know me. I could talk about the Kentucky Derby and the classics 24-7, 365 days a year.
As you well know, there are a lot of factors that contribute to the making of a classic champion. In brief, sire and damsire, female family and other stamina influences, just to name a few, all contribute to the champion thoroughbred.
In addition, past performances also are of the utmost importance in selecting a Kentucky Derby winner and that may be the key this year as to whether Old Fashioned (or any Unbridled’s Song colt) wears the Garland of Roses.
I have not been a big fan of Unbridled’s Song. And, as you previously stated, Unbridled’s Song has yet to produce a classic winner. But he does have a lot of good runners this year. If Old Fashioned continues to dominate (and not just win) leading up to the Kentucky Derby, I would say that the percentages are pretty good he could be the next Derby winner. In my opinion, that will be the big factor – dominating and not just winning.
That was one of the keys to Big Brown’s success last year. Although he came from a sire that some found questionable to produce a 10-furlong thoroughbred, let alone a champion, Big Brown dominated his opponents and he is also a descendent of the Northern Dancer bloodline which has produced numerous classic champions here in America and especially in Europe.
A winning sire line and outstanding past performances always trumps a questionable sire in my book.
Old Fashioned is a descendent of the Mr. Prospector bloodline which has dominated the Kentucky Derby since Old Fashioned’s grandsire, Unbridled, won the 1990 Kentucky Derby. Since then, the Mr. Prospector line has produced nine Kentucky Derby winners and three of those winners are descendents of the Fappiano line which also produced Unbridled.
Of course, the Kentucky Derby is a long ways off and Old Fashioned is not my top pick to win the Derby. But that could change as we get closer to the first Saturday in May.
Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on December 02, 2008 at 08:00 PM
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I noticed Nicanor is 100/1 in the futures. Has he run yet and does anyone have any info on him? Also, what are the thoughts on Mr.Hot Stuff. Seems Gomez was pissed after riding Carson's Copper on friday in the 1st and was never too together after that. I've never seen him fight a horse during the race and after the race like he did that one. I know he came back to win later on and some ITM in between, but do we think Mr.Hot Stuff will become anything or should I look for him in an 80K opt/claimer later down the line? Col.John was really coming into his own this time last year. I know, I know, it's too early for Derby talk and a lot of people don't think much of Col. John, but I still have a soft spot, I guess.
Posted by: Lane on December 02, 2008 at 08:17 PM
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Steve T. –
While I don't dispute your point that there are pitifully few races run beyond nine furlongs in the U.S., you're failing to take into account that virtually all half-way fashionable sires are represented by runners in Europe. Those runners obviously do have an opportunity to prove themselves at longer distances, and I'll provide a topical example.
Here are the basic statistics pertaining to runners by Unbridled's Song which have performed in the U.K.:
5-6f. (7-34)
7-9f. (42-193)
10-11f. (3-29)
12-13f. (0-14)
14f.+ (0-7)
(wins-starts)
So, while I have never felt the need to consult statistics in order to confirm what I have observed, hopefully the above stats will put an end to your speculation about whether or not Unbridled's Song is, in fact, a sire of sprinters and milers.
Now I grant you that the same generous sample would not be available for a sire such as Unusual Heat. But frankly, I see no evidence whatsoever to suggest that he would be getting a meaningful percentage of staying types if there were more such races available.
Posted by: tinky on December 02, 2008 at 08:30 PM
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These are before Beyers were routinely published and are not in the database, but Princess Rooney ran a 120 winning the first Breeders' Cup Distaff and Very Subtle ran a 121 winning the 1987 Breeders' Cup Sprint. Also, I have limited data on Lady's Secret but she did it at least once - in the 1986 Woodward.
Posted by: Darrell on December 02, 2008 at 08:53 PM
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steve t.,
on your hg 112 wheel are you covering 8 horses on the bottom half of the exacta?
Posted by: chicago gerry on December 02, 2008 at 09:13 PM
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Dan,
Nureyev was 3-2-0-0, his only loss being the notorious 1st-to-last DQ in the 2000 Guineas. You may wish to do one of your stories about Nureyev, from bonus baby ($1.3mil KEE yearling) to famous sire, including an incredible recovery from a paddock injury.
Speaking of sires, how about HG112's official sire of the week (two progeny entered in the race): Abaginone, pronounced "A bag in one"! Uncle Steve probably remembers this star of mid90's California sprinting - here he is winning the G2 Potero Grande in 1996:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKPpmgJdRSc
Abaginone is a 4x5 RF, inbred to Almahmoud through her daughters Cosmah and Natalma. He is also HB to G1&G2 stakes winner Cafa Rafaela, who happens to be the dam of Bernardini. So.......why is Abaginone's stud fee $289??? Perhaps since his chief lifetime earner happens to be running in HG112, Waytotheleft (earned ~$375K so far.) BTW, Waytotheleft is being offered for the $25K claiming tag...and I like her at 10/1 to win the race!!
$2 TRIBOX #1,4,6,10 = $48
$2 EXBX #1,4,6,10 = $24
$10 WP #10 = $20
Seating charge for the Equestris + Bowl of Manhattan Clam Chowder + Tip = $8
$100 TOTAL
Good luck to all HandiGamblers!!!
Posted by: Alan on December 02, 2008 at 09:20 PM
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YOU MIGHT WANT TO TAKE A LONG HARD LOOK AT INDYGO MT.YOU WILL LOVE THE PEDIGREE HE IS BRED TO RUN ALL DAY VERY NICE RACE AT CHURCHILL.A GOOD FRIEND OF MINE USES CALHOUN AS HIS TRAINER HE REALLY LIKES THIS COLT ALOT.I WILL LET U ALL KNOW WHAT HIS PLANS ARE WITH THE COLT DOWN THE RD HE IS AT THE FG NOW.
Posted by: peacerules on December 02, 2008 at 10:09 PM
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20 wps on waytotheleft #10 she might be sitting on a big race last year she would have bossed these while in the contessa barn gets a hot and heavy pace to run at. 20 tri 1/4/10,7. 100 dollars
Posted by: Justin on December 02, 2008 at 10:10 PM
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Steve T:
It's probably no coincidence that the two lines you've zeroed in on are, I believe, from breed to race connections. Private Account from the Phippses and His Majesty/Graustark from Darby Dan (Galbreath).
Handigambling:
Real nice job last week Pauliewalnuts and Van Savant- real money taken out of that race. This is an interesting heat Paulie has picked for us. This is a race I would definitely play, because I'm not big on the favored entry. Levine's record was, for him, only so-so during the main track part of the meet (4/27). The entry here looks fastest, but the 1 has run only on grass and with his breeding seems tailor-made to grass sprints. The 1a drops in for a tag off a layoff. What really bothers me about her is that I believe she is eligible for NW1X where a restricted race is not considered, similar to the conditions of her last at Saratoga. There are at least two races in the book for her with that condition (one scheduled for 12/4 apparently didn't go), but why risk her for $25k? Both will seem to benefit what looks like an insane pace scenario, but I'm tossing them out of the exacta.
My most likely winner is #6 Megadeed, but I'm not big on the 4-1 price. Her dirt races have been pretty good, and she will benefit from the pace, but she's been off 2 months with only a moderate work for this. Too many questions at 4-1 for me.
So in a race like this where I don't like the chalk and have questions on other relatively short price, I will stab (and probably bet less than $100). I landed on #9 Aegean Breeze. She had good races over the Inner, went off form, but has seemingly gotten back on the beam, showing speed in her last two includig one at a mile, a distance for which she seems ill-suited based on pedigree. The outside post will help here as she can lay off a bit. The play:
$40 win/$20 place #9
$10 exacta #9/#6
$4 exacta #9/#4; #6/#9
$2 exacta #1-#4/#9
$1 tri #9/#4,#6/#1,#4,#6
$1 tri #9/#1,#4,#6
$1 tri #6,#9/#4,#6,#9,/#1,#4,#6,#9
Good luck everyone.
Oh- and I lost about $2k on the Harlem Rocker takedown in the Cigar. At least it was warranted- I don't think he would've won if he didn't come over, but I wish Coa had waited a bit longer.
Posted by: alhattab on December 02, 2008 at 10:12 PM
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Uncle Steve,
I’m out of town and don’t have all of my resources at hand to adequately comment on your post about stamina thoroughbreds. However, Ribot is one of my all-time favorite thoroughbreds. Champion of champions, undefeated in 16 starts; two-time winner of the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe; Italian Champion 2YO and Champion 3YO; Champion Older Horse in Italy, France and the United Kingdom.
Ribot was bred by the immortal Federico Tesio who did not live to see him achieve greatness.
Here’s a good link about Ribot:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ribot_(horse)
Private Account (Damascus-Numbered Account by Buckpasser) is an interesting influential sire. His dam, Numbered Account, was a Reines-des-Course mare and all four of her dams were Reines-des-Course mares tracing back to the very influential broodmare La Troienne, herself a Reine-des-Course mare also. Numbered Account's sire, Buckpasser was also a descendent of La Troienne.
In addition, Private Account is a descendent of the sire line of the immortal Stockwell, also know as “Emperor of Stallions”, and his bloodline is one of the most important lines in the history of thoroughbred racing. Here’s a good link about Stockwell:
http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/Stockwell.html
The Stockwell line has produced numerous Kentucky Derby winners: 1903 – Judge Himes; 1921 – Behave Yourself; 1930 – Gallant Fox, Triple Crown winner; 1935 – Omaha, Triple Crown winner; 1938 – Lawrin; 1940 – Gallahadion; 1945 – Hoop Jr.; 1948 – Citation, Triple Crown winner; 1952 – Hill Gail; 1957 – Iron Liege; 1960 – Venetian Way.
A descendent of Stockwell, Phalaris, would one day transform the world of thoroughbred racing.
Modern thoroughbred horse racing as we know it today would not exist if it was not for the magnificent thoroughbred Phalaris. Born in 1913, Phalaris was a champion sprinter in 1917 and 1918 and was 16-2-1 in 24 starts. However, Phalaris' greatest contribution to horse racing was as a sire and he was selected by Timeform as the sire of the 20th Century.
Most of the great modern-day thoroughbred champions are descendents of Phalaris and his three sons - Sickle, Pharos and Pharamond. The greatest impact on horse racing has been by Phalaris' great-great grandson Native Dancer and grandson Nearco.
Native Dancer, an outstanding champion who was 21-1-0 in 22 starts, was sired by Polynesian out of the line of Sickle and that line produced Mr. Prospector which is one of the leading sire lines in the industry today. Nearco, a champion racehorse owned and bred by Federico Tesio was undefeated in 14 starts. Nearco was sired by Pharos and the line of Nearco has given us most of our modern-day thoroughbred champions (worldwide). Nearco's greatest contribution comes from his two grandsons - Bold Ruler and Northern Dancer. However, the line of his two sons - Nasrullah and Royal Charger have also produced numerous thoroughbred champions.
Including the line of Mr. Prospector, there are basically five sire lines that have had a major impact on the Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup races and four of those lines (Bold Ruler, Northern Dancer, Nasrullah and Royal Charger) are descendents of Nearco.
So the rumor that there is a shortage of classic stamina influences left in the United States is, in my opinion, highly exaggerated.
Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on December 02, 2008 at 10:31 PM
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My chart disappeared! Here are the races run in NA by distance:
Less Than 5.0F 2,404 4.6%
5.0F 2,887 5.5%
5.5F 6,001 11.5%
6.0F 15,315 29.3%
6.5F 3,945 7.5%
7.0F 2,883 5.5%
7.5F 560 1.1%
TOTAL FOR ALL SPRINTS: 33,995 65%
8F* 11,504 22%
8.5F 4,998 9.5%
9F 1,418 2.7%
9.5F 38 0.1%
10F 130 0.2%
11F 72 0.1%
12F 79 0.2%
Greater Than 12F 40 0.1%
* Includes 1 mile 70 yards and 1 mile 40 yards
TOTAL FOR ALL ROUTES: 18,270 35%
Posted by: Steve T. on December 02, 2008 at 10:32 PM
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HG 112:
Here's my $100 (worth about 2 cents)-
This race is LOADED with (cheap) early speed so I expect the stalkers and one deep closer to finish on top; specifically, I think that Coa is going to make SORORITY SISTER (4) haze the other "pledges" with a long-awaited good trip to edge out the front-running SWEPT THE SERIES (7). I also expect WAYTOTHELEFT (10) and the well-rested RIZZI'S TWIST (1a) to be full o' run late. Perhaps some of the cheap speed will persist on the tight inner track but I'm going with my imagined pace scenario.
The wagers:
$10 Exacta: 4 w/1a, 7, 10
$5 Trips: 4,7 w/ 1a,4,7,10 w/ 1a, 10, 8
Good luck all!
Posted by: John C. on December 02, 2008 at 11:31 PM
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Handigambling 112
Shooting from the hip, 1st day on inner track. How will it be playing? Hope to be back before post to tweek, I would have rather had a race from CT to handicap.
$20 win#5 Instant Lady
$40 ex 5-1
$20 ex 1-5
$ 2 ex 5/3,7,8,10
$ 2 ex 3,7,8,10/5
$ 2 tri 5/10/1,8
Should know after first 2 if speed will have any advantage, if not I would be inclined to take a 1-10 straight ex for the whole BR, but may not be able to get to computer on time.
Good luck to all
Posted by: Buffalo Joe on December 02, 2008 at 11:46 PM
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handigambling
FYI...for those who are using superfectas if both 1`s run there will be no super wagering.
Posted by: zarpo on December 02, 2008 at 11:47 PM
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HandiGambling 112:
This is a perfect race to be a contrarian, so it is in that spirit that I salute “Chef” PauliWalnuts for selecting such a tasty morsel.
I will let the #1/1A entry try and beat me here. CATTY MADELINE (#1), seems to be a nice filly, but probably best-suited to turf. If she can handle this field on the Inner dirt, then congrats. The #1A entry, RIZZI’S TWIST, also appears to be a decent play here; however, she hasn’t raced since July, and although her trainers’ numbers here suggest a likely win, I choose to toss her based on her come-backer in November 2007, on the Inner track (and yes, I do recognize that was run under classier conditions). She has worked decently coming into this, but I will let her beat me here if she can.
With that out of the way, I will focus on the #7, SWEPT THE SERIES. This is her third race in her current form-cycle, and I draw a line through her failure in the mud back on November 13th. She is also exhibiting what can be interpreted as an on-off form-cycle under her new trainer, Mr. Serpe. She has the speed to race tactically, and my bet is that she will, and I don’t really care what the odds are for her. She is the most “bettable” filly in this field based on my interpretation of her form, her speed, and her pace-ratings.
My play (please, oh please….somebody check my math before post-time ☺)!:
$40 to Win on the 7
$4 Exacta box – 3,7,10
$4 Trifecta box – 3,7,10
$.10 Superfecta box – 3,4,5,7,10
That should be $100 (or $135…but who’s counting ☼)!
Should be fun. Good luck, folks.
Van Savant
Posted by: Van Savant on December 03, 2008 at 12:03 AM
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Lane
I too have been watching for Nicanor to make his debut.
Here is a note from the BloodHorse & The FormBlog dedicated to all things Nicanor.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/nicanor/archive/2008/11/17/official-work-for-nicanor.aspx
Hope this helps!
SR Vegas
& If you want info on Barbaro's other brother Lentenor,
try: http://www.millridge.com/barbaros-family.aspx
Posted by: SR Vegas on December 03, 2008 at 12:13 AM
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tencentcielo
Bravo on your P6 story!
I see getting over the flu has not impacted any of your OLA sensibilities!
...now, how is your handicapping??
SR Vegas
PS...passing on HG112...gotta' deal with some water damage & mold, compliments of my up-stairs neighbor...AARRGGGHHHHH!
Posted by: SR Vegas on December 03, 2008 at 12:20 AM
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Steve T,
Ditto on your 5:51 post. I agree with everything you said. Along that same line of thoughts here is a response to your question on the top five sprinters. I thought about that for sometime, as many who could have went down in history as great sprinters were also great at classic distances. If I had to list a #1 at sprinting it would be Dr Fager. Yes, I know he won more races at longer distances, also was a champion on turf but, his record setting 7F in the Vosburgh at AQE (120 1/5) which stood I think stood for twenty nine yrs. stamps his place in history as a sprinter. A couple other distance horses that could have been great sprinters were Hoist The Flag, and Bold Forbes.
A few other sprinters I would rank high are Artax, Kona Gold, Speightstown, Xtra Heat and would be very remiss without mentioning Lost In The Fog. Many would not include this one as a great one as he bombed finishing 7th in the BC. I will always think that his cancer had already set in by that race. His record prior to the BC winning ten times on seven different tracks all over the U.S. (I Think) is very commendable. Here is a link to Dr Fager's win @ AQE in the Vosburgh:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NGSWeForlE
Calvin, Old Fashioned would not be my pick right now to win the Derby. If someone were to put a gun to my head, I would pick the Mclaughlin trained Charitable Man. Would have been Vineyard Haven if he wasn't going to vacation the winter in Dubai. Old Fashioned has much to overcome with his pedigree. The Unbridled's Song/Meadowlake nick has only produced three stakes winners and, two of those were in Argentina. I like him because he appears to be very talented and, Larry Jones will have him "peak" ready if he makes the big dance!
Jim Tully, what a great play with words. I don't know where but, somewhere down the road I will have some fun with your phrase M.M. BTW, I agree with your thoughts on how Unbridled's Song was managed, just a travesty. Also while maybe not a Derby horse, I saw today that Quality Road a winner @ AQE in the 4th Sat. recieved a 101 bsf for his 6 1/2F win in a MSW, time was 1:16.1 then again may be a Derby horse?
Tinky, (saved the best for last) lol! I respect your "classical" approach to the races. Convential wisdom should never be discarded IMO. Albeit, I really feel one needs to think "outside the box" in todays racing world. I operated with the same mindset for years. In 2003, I really liked Funny Cide in the Derby. Which BTW was the year I decided to delve into pedigree study. Anyway, because of his pedigree I convinced myself there was no way he could win at 10F. Worse the only place I played him was on the bottom of a tri ticket.
Fast forward to 2004, Oaklawn Park is my home track so to speak. I was at the Ark. Derby and saw Smarty Jones win. So the sentimental side of my brain let me bet him to win in the Derby, although the right side of my brain was questioning my judgement because of his pedigree!
Where I am going with this is many classic trends in racing is out the window. With your knowledge and expertise I don't think I need to state the obvious but, the last three Derby winners: Big Brown, Street Sense, and Barbaro all won despite bucking historical Derby winning trends.
Also I understand to the T your thoughts on percentages. I play pool, 8/9 ball, one pocket etc. at a pretty high level. Every shot I make, offensive or defensive always comes down to is it a better % to run out, or play safe. Sometimes my decision is altered by the amount of the wager involved. The only reason I bring this up is my most profitable days/nights whether racing, pool playing, or poker have been when I have been agressive and not went with the normal flow.
Posted by: johnnyz on December 03, 2008 at 12:35 AM
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beforetreading into handigambling 112 waters did anyone notice that in Unusual heat's pp's he raced 6 times in the Us with 5 of those at BSF of 100+ in ALLOWANCE races
and won only two of them. Either the competition was a lot tougher back then or the BSF figurer was a lot more generous. If a horse today put up that stretch of BSF's he/she would be a G1 winner.
Handigambling 112:
Opening day on the AQU inner course will be sunny and cool with light winds. A no excuses day weather wise....
1)CATTY MADELINE, here's a late blooming 3YO woth a nice Beyer pattern but on turf. What will she do on the unique AQU strip? She'll have all kinds of pace to chase, if she takes to the surface she wins.
1A) RIZZI'S TWIST, if entrymate flops on surface she sure can pick things up for the team. Runs fine over the inner dirt, BUT her first off layoff is not nearly her best, iffy.
2)ANITA ROSITA, love those NY state bred purses. Anywhere
else with these BSF's and she hasn't made $10k lifetime.....
Overmatched, Pass.
2B)SO SMASHLEY, see above. However she does have some form over the inner dirt, and might actually pass a horse unlike many of the frontrunners in here.Being forwardly placed she might actually hang on in the bottom of the super/tri spots as closers get stuck behind horses backing up.
3)ALL ABOUT ALLISON, will inherit the rail and go as long as she can. Third start in cycle should have her primed. Don't know where she fits BSF wise as she hasn't raced in two years. The comeback was an obvious workout that trainer didn't like so he put her in for a tag and she got scooped. Somebody saw something they liked. Not many take a chance on a horse who's off two years. If the rail is gold....
4)SORORITY SISTER, one of the closers who'll be coming late. 1 for 1 with Coa aboard but looks just a bit light in the Beyers. underneath only.
5)INSTANT LADY, another need-the-lead type who'll give her backers a little excitement early and probably none late.
She's 2-0-1 in three starts with Bocachica aboard. If she clears she could be dangerous but i do not see that happening.
6)MEGADEED, trainer does poorly with blinker add ons. like the 1 she fits if she takes to the inner dirt course. Lots of pace to chase.
Should get a nice spot behind the BBQ and the class relief should help also. Very playable.
7)SWEPT THE SERIES, yet another frontender who's on/off button is switched to "on" for this race. Can pass a horse which helps along with firm ground. Interesting that Maragh ends up here. Intriguing.
8)SEASON'S WISE, see #2.Overmatched, pass.
9)AEGEAN BREEZE, recent form is awful, but inner dirt mark is good. Should be prominent if return to favorite course is all she needs.
10)WAYTOTHELEFT, serviceable inner dirt record and stalking style puts her in the mix. Should get first run ahead of closers.
What to do, what to do? I just have a feeling one of the speed horses is going to run off and hide. Which one? No clue. I wouldn't touch this race with my money, but with dan's let's take a stab...
.10 SUPER BOX 3,4,5,7,9,10 $36
$20 EX BOX 1,6 $40
$1 SUPER KEY 1/6,7,9,10/6,7,9,10/6,7,9,10
Will watch results for first few races to see how track is playing.
Posted by: cayman01 on December 03, 2008 at 12:43 AM
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Hg 112 *revised*
$1 Super
1/ 2,4,6,7,8,10/2,4,5,6,7,8,10/4,7,8,10 =$100
Posted by: chicago gerry on December 03, 2008 at 01:55 AM
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Quick picks for HG due to tests done on my back tomorrow.
$40 EX box 1A, 7
$5 Tri 1A,7 /1A.7 /4,6
Posted by: David W on December 03, 2008 at 02:36 AM
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HG112:
The 1 entry looks like the favorites, but there are some issues. Why is Catty Madeline starting at this level immediately after winning N1X? She isn't in for the tag, but why not a straight N2X or at least an OC60 or something rather than this low level? As for Rizzi's Twist, she's been off for a while, and she sometimes gets in the money by just kind of garbage-collecting without making much of a move.
Yet it's hard to find anything to beat them in here, and the plethora of cheap speed, even at speed-favoring Aqueduct, should flatter the style of both.
Sorority Sister is in decent form and does fine with this surface and distance; she'd prefer wet which I'm not sure she will get; still has a chance. I also give an outside look to Waytotheleft. She is in awful form, but drops in class, is also fine with this surface/distance, and worked well since her last.
I'll bet the entry to win -- in real life, I'd wait and see if they were 7/2 or better, which probably won't happen -- $50.
$24 exacta box with Sorority Sister (#3).
Trifecta box with the 1 entry, the 3 and Waytotheleft (#9), $24.
$2 on beer.
Hope my math is right. It's late.
Posted by: Kyri on December 03, 2008 at 03:13 AM
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,
I am not defending Unbridled's Song at all, he is not one of my favorite sires for a variety of reasons. I guess my point is that there are not enough races in the U.S. of 10F plus (360/.7%) to be able to really tell who can sire "distance" horses. And remember the 10F+ number of 360 races is both dirt and turf races combined. Since there are more turf than dirt marathons, that leaves a nominal 180 per surface per year - some .35%. At that statistical level you have to be in the right circuit at the right time to show multiple wins at the longer distances. I would bet that of the 180 races, 60 are in NY, 60 in SoCal and the remaining 60 are spread out over the other circuits. That frequency just isn't an opportunity to show anything. If Unusual Heat was standing in GB, IRE or AUS I suspect he might have been a "distance sire" ala Kingmambo.
It seems like kind of a moot point to try and predict distance success in the U.S. over a mere 180 races per year, versus 52,085 races offered over other distances. If I was looking for a solid distance sire in the U.S., there are not a lot of choices - A.P. Indy, Forty Niner (JPN), Spring House, Seattle Slew (DEAD) and the seven dwarfs. Almost all of the winners at a distance had a significant boost from their dams. Like Rags to Riches or her brothers Jazil, and Casino Drive. Maybe Spring House, Silver Charm, Seeking the Gold and a couple of others. I would suspect that Kingmambo or Sadlers Wells colts racing in Europe have more 10F+ races by themselves than we have as a country. So maybe it is more about opportunity and the dam in the U.S. than in Europe. Because there are so few examples we are forced to rely on the theoretical capabilities of the dam and sire.
I tend to agree with you that the pace standard and running style of Euro's gives them a significant advantage against U.S. distance runners,with a very strong close pretty much a given (like Raven's Pass).
There are 74 graded stakes in the U.S. of 9.5F or greater, so more than a quarter of the distance races (74/360) are stakes. The breakdown on the races are:
Turf
14F 1
13F 0
12F 19
11F 12
10F 15
9.5F 5
TOTAL TURF MARATHONS: 52
Dirt
14F 0
13F 0
12F 3 (Belmont, Brooklyn, Tokyo City)
11F 0
10F 13
9.5F 6
TOTAL DIRT MARATHONS: 22
Posted by: Steve T. on December 03, 2008 at 03:30 AM
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Hi Dan,
I've been digesting your thoughts about BSFs for a little while and have some of my own. Most of these thoughts apply to any kind of number.
"That's the whole point, isn't it? We have to take the information given to us, and question whether or not to believe it."
No, I don't think it is. I think the goal is to interpret the information in some meaningful way, not to question whether it's even legit or usable in the first place. If I see 6F in 1:10 in the Form, I don't question whether the race was actually run in 1:14 (at least not most of the time :). Before using any piece of information, there has to be an assumption that the information is at least obtained through a self-consistent process. That's exactly why handicappers rarely split hairs about workouts. The conditions and hand-clockings are notoriously unreliable, incomplete, and misreported, so they are often (wisely) taken with a grain of salt. But BSFs are NOT taken with a grain of salt by most players, which is what prompted my original question.
"I think that even the most ardent speed figure fan will question a number if it doesn't look right."
What is it supposed to look like? Seriously. The fan you speak of may be keeping his own figures, in which case he shouldn't need (or want) to use the BSFs anyway. Otherwise, he's watching a smashing performance and saying "94?!?! That deserves at least a 104!" based on his own visual impression and experience with the numbers. But what does a 104 look like anyway if you're not making your own figures?
"The Beyers obviously aren't infallible. They're a guide, and we've shown on the blog that projections are made on many, many occasions."
Aha! They are not infallible and the public has no way of knowing when projections are made or what variants are being used. So how does one distinguish the reliable from the unreliable? I think the pace analysis, trip handicapping, and other factors you mention help INTERPRET the numbers, provided they are valid. But that's an entirely different matter altogether. The question is, how does one decide whether the number is legit in the first place without making their own figures? The public relies on Beyer to provide a speed figure which they can interpret for themselves, saving the effort of having to analyze a day's worth of final times and past performances to obtain every single number. That's their whole appeal. However, when someone questions the validity of SOME of the numbers, they are really questioning the consistency of the PROCESS, so how can they be confident in ANY of the numbers produced from it? At the very least, the process has to be trusted 100% of the time and it doesn't seem to be. I don't really understand how players can pick and choose which figures they think are right or wrong and continue to use them the next time. At that point, why even bother with them?
"I wouldn't advise anyone to blindly bet on a number without visual analysis to back up the mathematical data. Can a handicapping tool be reliable yet be questioned at the same time?"
The assessment of the variant and the correction factors is, well, subjective. There is no true correct or incorrect answer, but there should be some level of consistency in the process. If the process is producing questionable numbers regularly, then the consistency is not there. Or maybe it is, meaning the skeptics are always wrong and the blind believers are doing the right thing. It's hard to say for sure, but a useful tool cannot be considered reliable only part of the time.
It's an interesting and important topic that, believe it or not, I don't think gets discussed nearly enough, considering how widely used and accepted figures have become.
Posted by: C on December 03, 2008 at 03:43 AM
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To give you a better idea of how racing in the U.S. breaks out versus Great Britain, here is a spreadsheet that has all of the Group 1/2/3 races in Britaon, and one for the U.S. Grade 1/2/3 races, and then a comparison of the two countries in their stakes races by distance:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pIaalb5z28p9IHvsn3W43Dw&hl=en
Posted by: Steve T. on December 03, 2008 at 04:42 AM
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I am getting very close to turning the latest iteration of Thoroughbred Ink live. When I do, I could really use everybody to give it the once over. There are over 700 pages in the damn thing (so I went over the edge, AGAIN...). I will move the vast majority of my harebrained ideas, statistical analysis and op/ed pieces to TI to avoid hogging any more of Dan's blog. I am waiting right now to get the new "super chat" module connected and for full DNS propagation. Here are some of what is in there:
Articles
Stories
Trivia Challenge
Track Profiles
Track Web Sites - US
Track Web Sites - Europe
Tack Web Sites - South America
Track Web Sites - Australia/NZ
Track Web Sites - Asia
Hall of Fame - Horses
Hall of Fame - Jockeys
Hall of Fame - Trainers
Tools
World Records
Handle Takeouts
PolyPed Sires
Pace Calculation
Class Calculation
Form Calculation
International Racing Documentation
Points of Call and Fractional Times
Breeders and Farms
Trainer Profiles
Jockey Profiles
Horse Rankings - 2008 (with polls)
Horse Rankings - 2009 (with polls)
Contests and Activities (a complete listing of the contests being held - showvivors, daily/weekly/monthly, as well as NHC
State Regulatory Boards
Online Wagering Services
Horseracing Books and DVD's (with reviews)
Breeders Cup Results (from beginning)
Triple Crown Results (from beginning)
Blogs (Any one who wants one - just let me know)
Pedigree Data and Discussions
Racing Media Directory
Chat (with whiteboard, audio and video)
Video Library
Photo Library
Forums
RSS Feeds and Broadcasts
Assessments, Polls and Opinions
Daily Race Selections - by me, Laura and anyone else who wants to risk the slings and arrows of public handicapping.
Complete News by subject and tracks
Here are some of the things I would like to accomplish at TI:
Regular chat sessions with industry leaders - like Richard Shapiro and Drew Couto, as well as leading jockeys, trainers, owners and pundits.
Routine Friday Night chats about the coming weekend races.
A hosted, interactive training series on handicapping thoroughbreds - including things like physical cues, pace analysis, speed analysis, class analysis, form analysis, maidens and two year olds, claiming races, surface composition and conditions,using DRF PP's, using BRISnet PP's, Using Equibase PP's, identifying live freshman sires, evaluating works, evaluating trainer and jockey stats, just about everything you can think of.
I will become much more active in calling out those in charge, hopefully with a little more tact (don't hold your breath).
I built this sucker entirely by myself, and I am not a programmer, so cut me some slack (but not a lot...) and I desperately want to hear what YOU want to see on a comprehensive horse racing site.
We will be complimentary to DRF and NOT a competitor (although I do hope we can work a deal to sell their products).
I would like to take all of the data about becoming an owner I have compiled - with costs and expectations, and produce a guide to new owners and to also detail life in a horse racing partnership. This will include the experiences of others who "got into the game".
Long term I want to gain access to the full database and start producing the statistics I have been whining about for years...
I have been working on several items that I hope we can get to the point that they become a serious tool - pace calculation, form calculation and class calculation. If I don't drive Alan and Cayman screaming into the night with a relentless parade of my "new" spreadsheets...
I also want to start a series on trainers - their philosophies, strategies and schedules as well as the fundamentals - this is what a bowed tendon looks like and how you treat it, how do you decide when a new runner is ready to start, those kinds of things.
Please is you have any suggestions or requests, send them to me! I will let you know when it is live, I expect to be good to go by the end of the week.
Posted by: Steve T. on December 03, 2008 at 05:34 AM
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Time for your daily trivia feed:
This horse ran in four Breeders' Cup races - twice in the Classic and twice in the Sprint (bet that combination doesn't happen again) and hit the board in both the Classic and the Sprint. He isn't in the Hall of Fame but should be. Who is he?
Posted by: Steve T. on December 03, 2008 at 05:51 AM
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Uncle Steve,
Here's a story I thought that you would appreciate about Madeleine Pickens who is working to establish a sanctuary for wild Mustangs and retired thoroughbreds:
http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/madeleine-pickens-a-plan-for-all-horses/
Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on December 03, 2008 at 08:23 AM
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A very difficult race to handicap is Handi Gambling 112. This is a race that I would pass on line and I would play at the track. I find it much easier to pass a race on line than when I am at the track. And when I think I should pass a race I am usually without a clue as I find myself here. I will take a $20 exacta box of 6 and 7. I will take $60 to win on the 6. Maybe the move back to dirt and the blinks will wake this one (the 6) up. Good luck to all.
Posted by: Ray Manley on December 03, 2008 at 09:44 AM
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Hg 112 *revised*
$4 Tri
1/2,4,6,8,10/2,4,5,6,8,10=$100
Dan,
revised away from the Super
because I won't be around to see who starts. Gotta believe, because of the jockeys involved, the 1 and 1A will start. I could be wrong about that. Next Hg I will be home or on vacation. I am pretty much going to take the rest of the winter off after this week, so I'll try a Super then.
Don't have too many comments about the runners right now, and agree with much of what has been sighted by cayoman, steve t. and others. No one made my 'STW' list this time.
I am thinking Seasons Wise could pull an 'Eddie Murphy' here with regard to Sorority Sister.
My biggest regret is leaving
Swept the Series out, and more than likely, I will get burned there. But I am used to that.
I don't get the jockey switch from Megadeed, and am hoping something is up, or Maragh's agent made a mistake. I mainly agree with steve t. on Megadeed, but Alan and Cayoman liked her a bit, so I threw her in. As of this writing, I am real curious as to what you, Dan, think about Megadeed because if I throw Megadeed out, I would put Swept the Series in.
I do think if Instant Lady is handled correctly, she has the talent to hold on for a piece.
I don't get the love for Aegean Breeze, I can't see her in the top three, but that is why I am still learning from the 'Guys and Dolls' (South Pacific), on the board. It will be fun to see how this one runs.
By the way Dan I want to thank you for all the money you have given me to wager on the Handigambling races, nigh unto $1,200 dollars now. This money has been a gift and not a loan, right Dan? Right Dan?
Posted by: chicago gerry on December 03, 2008 at 09:50 AM
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johnnyz,
I haven't played a serious game of pool in years. I've got a Viking cue and case I bought when I was 23 for $100. That was a lot of money back then and believe you me, my better half let me know about it.
I had it appraised several years ago and was told it was worth approximately $400.
Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on December 03, 2008 at 09:51 AM
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Dan -- Please remind Steve D that Dixieland Band was a very, very good race horse, and it is certain he would have benefitted greatly had he been trained elsewhere (say Woody Stephens, Jack Van Berg). In the Maryland Juvenile, Dixieland Band defeated both the winner of the following year's Preakness and Belmont Stakes (Deputed Testamony and Caveat). Gotta be able to run some if you can do that. Have to respect him as a sire, too, because he did it on his own, sort of like Danehill. Best regards, pfg
Posted by: PF Gorman on December 03, 2008 at 10:01 AM
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Hey Peacerules!
Does Brett Calhoun like Indygo Mt, better than Silver City? I was at C.D. when both ran on different days and they both have Derby written all over them in my opinion. Does anyone kow what Beyers they received?
Posted by: Hillbilly on December 03, 2008 at 10:18 AM
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HG 112
$1 tri 9/all/all $72
$2 Ex 10/all $18
$5 Ex 6/4,7 $10
Posted by: Gary on December 03, 2008 at 10:26 AM
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Am I missing something? I don't see where there is a super offered on the 7th race. If there is it might be a play since the 1 entry seems hard to beat. If anyone know for sure let us know. Otherwise it'll be tri's.
Posted by: Peter Vescovo on December 03, 2008 at 11:32 AM
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Uncle Steve
Did you get yourself cloned , like 10 times..or did you hire a staff to assist you in this update to TI!!
...simply Remarkable Man.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on December 03, 2008 at 11:35 AM
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HG 112
$4 Tri 1/2,4,7,10/2,4,7,10.
$4 Tri 2,4,7,10/1/2,4,7,10.
$4 Win 3.
Posted by: Mickey Hoops on December 03, 2008 at 11:38 AM
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steve t.,
Read your table of contents and about all the work you put into TI. The undertaking is very comprehensive and impressive. Good luck there and I hope to visit TI often.
Posted by: chicago gerry on December 03, 2008 at 11:43 AM
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HG112
1-Catty Madeline-Turfer?
1A-Rizzi’s Twist-Layoff+Price+Jock
2-Anita Rosita-Blinks?
2B-So Smachley-
3-All About Allison-Work+Claim
4-Sorority Sister-Under?
5-Instant Lady-Burn+Price
6-Megadeed-Dirt+Blinks
7-Swept the Series-Inner-X
8-Seasons Wise-3OffLay
9-Agean Breeze-Inner-X+Wgt
10-Waytotheleft-Inner+Works
I like the 1A,10,3,6,9
So:
$20 Exacta Box: 1A-Rizzi’s Twist. 10-Waytotheleft
$10 Trifecta: 1A,10 / 1A,10 / 3-All About Allison, 6-Megadeed, 9-Aegean Breeze
Good Luck Everybody...
Posted by: Leo on December 03, 2008 at 11:43 AM
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Steve,
I'll say Precisionist. I think he's already in the HoF though.
Any list of outstanding sprinters has to include Dr Fager and Ta Wee. Of course, in their day, sprints included anything under 9 furlongs, as Johnny Z suggested. I think Artax is right up there with the all-time best, as is Kona Gold. Xtra Heat was unreal too. I always liked both Speightstown and Lostinthefog, but would have to put them a little lower in my personal ratings.
I don't know how you compiled all those races. Wow. It really shows how ridiculous and useless the BC "Marathon" really is as a championship race. I do NOT feel the same way about the Belmont though. I hope that race always remains 12 furlongs... it's meant to be a grueling challenge as the final test of the champion. The Belmont is 12 furlongs for good reason. The distance is the biggest challenge the horse must overcome to become an immortal.
Posted by: C on December 03, 2008 at 11:48 AM
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Tinky, C, Leo, Steve t., Cayoman,
Where do you currently go, when you want to do some trip handicapping or just look at a race that has already been run? Do you get more than one view? Can you rewind and pause? Is there a cost involved at the sites you frequent?
Posted by: chicago gerry on December 03, 2008 at 11:52 AM
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HG 112
The Handicapping:
There were no changes to this race this morning and it sounds like there is no super wagering in this race.
Talk about a race with a little pace on the front-end. I see six or seven horses that seem to be need-the-lead types. The question is which ones are going to last? Personally, I like the 7, Swept the Series, and 8, Season’s Wise. Maragh gets off the 6, Megadeed to ride here. In addition, this horse makes her third start in the form cycle. She shows the good-bad-good-bad race pattern we’ve seen here before and the last one was a dud so today should be better, right? I just think this one is the speed of the speed and has the ability to last the longest. I also like the 8. She seems to be rounding back into her best form as her career best figure was a 76 and she ran a 69 last time out. She seems to prefer the weeds and the slop, but the inner track can be quirky. I think you’ll get a price on her and with that forging pattern, she’s worthy to include in the exotics.
I didn’t like the 6, Megadeed at all. Hasn’t raced since October 9th and only shows one 4F workout where the guy selling the beer finished a fifth of a second in front her. Gets the blinkers for today’s race, but I’m not convinced. Now watch her win by a day……
In terms of the closers, the Levine entry looks formidable. However, the M/L odds of 8 to 5 seem to be a little low to me and I’m expecting the New York Faithful to pound them down even further. The 1, Catty Madeline shows one 4 furlong workout since her last race on October 3rd. Is she going to be short here? In addition, she’s never raced on anything but the weeds. The 1a, Rizzi’s Twist is another late closer who is coming back after not having raced since July 24th. But her workouts haven’t exactly set the world on fire and there is a somewhat inconsistent pattern in the works in terms of the number of days between. I prefer a consistent pattern in comeback horses and this one has gaps varying from seven to twelve days between workouts. Dominguez sees her fit to ride and the way he’s going, he could ride a donkey to a Grade I win right now so you can’t toss her out. Both of Levine’s horses have a chance to win, but too many questions for me at 8 to 5. I also am not keen on the chances of the 10 horse, Waytotheleft. When a horse gets claimed from a top barn (Contessa 13%) by a lower percentage trainer (Aquilino 6%), I prefer a wait and see approach. Notice how the form has steadily declined since the claim? I do like the two workouts since the last race, but again, the stats on this one don’t seem to jump off the page. She could win, but I’m going to play the percentages here and assume that the new barn hasn’t got this one figured out quite yet.
I landed on the 4, Sorority Sister in this race. Like the 8, she seems to be poised to make a move forward today. She ran a BSF of 71 last time out when her career best is a 73. In three year olds, you can sometimes expect another move forward when this occurs. In addition, she’s been caught wide in her last two races, but still closed successfully to be third. She picks up Coa today and I expect her to get first run on the speed demons up front. There are questions with this one too as her fast track times haven’t been anything to write home about, but I’ll be hoping she takes to the inner dirt.
The Wagers:
This is where I’ve been killing myself recently (El Crespo at 8 to 1 anyone????) so I wouldn’t recommend playing it this way, but here goes:
$20 Win-Place on the 4, Sorority Sister = $40
$5 Exacta Box 1,7,8 with 4 = $30
$2 Trifecta 1,4 with 1,4,7,8 with 1,4,7,8 = $24
$3 Win on 7, Swept the Series = $3
$3 Win on 8, Seasons Wise = $3
Good luck to everyone today.
Posted by: Danny B. on December 03, 2008 at 12:05 PM
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HG 112:
$2 tri 1/2,4,5,8/2,4,5,8
$2 tri 4/1,2,5,8/1,2,5,8
$10 ex 4/1,2,5,8
@4 tri bx 1,2,4
Should be $100.00 even
BigEasyBigChok
Posted by: BigEasyBig Chok on December 03, 2008 at 12:14 PM
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Oops! Peter Vescovo is right.
The entries sheet shows no super on this race. Maybe because of the two entries? Have to go back and refigure my bets.
Annie
Posted by: Annie on December 03, 2008 at 12:22 PM
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Okay, no scratches and no superfectas in HG 112. Thank you NYRA.
So, I'll go bombing in the trifecta.
1,3,5,9,10/1,6,7,9,10/1,4,6,7,9,10 $98
1/2,7/2,7
Posted by: cayman01 on December 03, 2008 at 12:40 PM
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OK since there is no super on the HG race it looks to me like the best value will be a tri. I would like to think that the #1entry can be beat but it looks unlikely #1 has improved with each race and #1a has the jockey and the best time at dist. and 2nd best time on inner track. But favorites are there to be beaten. That said I'm using them anyway. Hoping for something long underneath.
Picks for Today:
$2Tri 1/2-4-6-7/ALL = $64
$1Tri ALL/1/2-4-9-10 =$36
That's on the money! Good luck and keep up the analysis on the 2y.o. crop it has been great reading and a help in compiling my horses to watch list. Thanks.
Posted by: Peter Vescovo on December 03, 2008 at 12:44 PM
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handigambling 112
$25 tri
1/10/4,6
1/4,6/10
Posted by: zarpo on December 03, 2008 at 12:52 PM
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HG 112
$1 tri box 1 4 7 9 10 $60.00
$1 tri box 1 4 7 9 $24.00
$8 exacta box 4 7 $16.00
I love reading Steve T.'s posts. Looking forward to more of your thoughts and insights into this great sport.
Posted by: Dave K on December 03, 2008 at 12:54 PM
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Handigambling 112:
Although I never play New York in the winter (I do like Belmont in the Fall), I'll give it a shot.
In looking at the eligibility requirements for this race, it appears that the only way Rizzi's Twist can be eligible for this is if in for a claiming price because she has won two races other than MD, Cl or starter. The fact that she has been off since July doesn't necessarily mean there is anything wrong with her since she had run steadily for a whole year and deserved a break.
Therefore, the Levine entry needs to be in my Tri. I've narrowed it down to three others I will box with the entry.
Would love to get a longshot in the tri, and the one I like is #3 All About Allison in case that speed on the golden rail holds true. Her 36.4B work tells me she is going for it and should get the rail. Now, before this mare was off for 2+ years she was doing pretty good. Her last race was much improved over her first start back, so I'm going to take a chance on her hanging on for at least 3rd.
Maragh went off two horses in this race, Catty Madeline and Megadeed to ride #7 Swept the Series and as many have mentioned this could be an "on" race for her. Also like the fact that Prado thought she was good enough to ride and since he doesn't appear to be riding today, the jock switch doesn't bother me. If he had went to another or even was riding in other races, I would have thrown her out.
The 4th horse that interests me is #10 Waytotheleft. She has a very good record on the inner track and I like her last work.
So, trying for a decent Tri, I will play:
$4 Tri Box 1E,3,7,10 = $96
$4 Win #3 = $ 4
Good luck everyone; don't forget, there is no super in this race. Sigh
Annie
Posted by: Annie on December 03, 2008 at 12:58 PM
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Since there is no super in the HG112, give me the same numbers that I placed on the Super in a TriBox.
Tx.
Posted by: Ivan on December 03, 2008 at 01:04 PM
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I usually would not play this race with live money because my pick is chalky but I just can't get past the 1A in this spot. He faced much tougher last year on the inner and Dominguez knows the horse.
$8 Tri 1/7/4569(10) $40
$8 Tri 1/4569(10)/7 $40
$4 Tri 4569(10)/1/7 $20
Posted by: PaulieWalnuts on December 03, 2008 at 01:06 PM
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HANDIGAMBLING 112:
No time for written analysis:
$25 WP #1
$2 TRI PW: 1 / 5-7-9 / 5-7-9
$1 TRI PW: 1 / 7-9 / ALL
$1 TRI PW: 1 / ALL / 7-9
$6 EX: 9-1
Posted by: Dale on December 03, 2008 at 01:08 PM
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Hdg. 112,
Interesting race. With all the early speed one would think the race sets up for one to come from off the pace. On the other hand I can't ignore how speed plays on the inner.
#9 Aegean Breeze has no choice with his post but to shoot for the lead. He is getting 6+ lbs from all but one and the AQE inner is the only track he has ever ran a lick on.
$2 Tri-#9/#1,#7/all-$32
$2 Tri-#1,#7/#9/all-$32
$6 Ex box-#1,#7,#9-$36
Thats all of Dan's money but I will play the pick/4 with my own.
6th-#3,#8,#9
7th-#1,#7,#9
8th-#4
9th-#3,#5,#10,#11 $36 ticket
Good luck to all.
Posted by: johnnyz on December 03, 2008 at 01:18 PM
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Dan
I'm sorry that you have been "under the weather" lately, maybe changing your last name might help!
Steve T
A few other great sprinters--Housebuster, Groovy, and maybe the fastest of them all, Pine Tree Lane.
Chicago Gerry
Your superfecta calculation was correct, albeit n/a to the race. An interesting oddity to note is that by adding just one horse to the third and fourth positions, you increased your bet from 60.00 to 100.00. (a 67% increase!)
All
When NYRA has coupled entries in a race, a stupid rule by the Racing and Wagering Board prevents superfectas from being offered---unless one part of the entry is part of the AE's, and is subsequently scratched (another idiotic rule).
HandiDANdy 112
7.00 exacta box 4,6,8 =42
3.00 exactas 4,6,8/7,3,10 = 27
2.00 trifectas 4,6,8/1/4,6,8,7,3,10 = 30
1.00 to buy the Daily News to read about my "choking" j-e-t-s, jets, jets, jets!
Posted by: ktalbany on December 03, 2008 at 01:30 PM
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Uncle Steve,
Off the top of my head without looking anything up for the trivia question,could it be Black Tie Affair or Pleasant Tap?
I second SR Vegas in wondering whether you have staff. I think you need a new job as the CZAR of all things horseracing. Maybe the President Elect could make that a new cabinet position. haha
C,
I love your posts, so I have to ask......Does C stand for Contrarian?
Posted by: Turn Back The Alarm on December 03, 2008 at 01:43 PM
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kt albany,
LOL!
Annie
Posted by: Annie on December 03, 2008 at 01:57 PM
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C,
It is indeed Precisionist, and by their site he is NOT in the Hall of Fame yet.
Posted by: Steve T. on December 03, 2008 at 02:17 PM
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SR Vegas,
My partner in crime on the site is a 13 year old deaf Australian Shepherd by the name of Taz
http://picasaweb.google.com/sthygersen/Miscellaneous#5275650925323599426
Other than that, just me - hey I never claimed to be mentally stable...
Posted by: Steve T. on December 03, 2008 at 02:41 PM
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HG 112
The rail is not hot for the 6F races today (as of the 4th)
for any laggards like me who wanted to make late picks.
Will go heavy with Sorority Sister (#4) with Coa aboard and her good J/T numbers..
Agree with others that Swepttheseries (#7) should have the "on" switch today.
I find the chalk runs third at AQ this time of the year, so that's where I'll put Rizzi's Twist (#1), who is the stand out with Ramon and works.
Why Aegean Breeze (#9)? Likes AQ inner track, may be real happy to be back there, plus light weight with the lovely Maylan in the irons.
HEre's how them chips fall:
$ 25 Win/Place
# 4 Sorority Sis
$ 10 Tri box: 1/4/7
$ 5 Tri Box 4/7/9
$ 1 Exacta Partial Wheel:
Rizzi (# 1) over 2/5/6/8/10
(That is, everything else I ignored!) My silly saver.
Should come to a century, if my math is right.
Thanks to KTAlbany for dissection of Superfecta.
I still would like to hear from others what data/thoughts they record in handicapping journals and how they use that info later.
Not so much how you bet, but you decide WHAT to bet.
Good luck all!
Katieattherail
Posted by: Katieattherail on December 03, 2008 at 02:41 PM
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chicago jerry,
I use calracing.com a lot. cause if tis free its for me!
Posted by: cayman01 on December 03, 2008 at 03:41 PM
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chicago gerry
I also use calracing.com. It shows all the races & tracks in CA, and many of the other tracks in No America..I can't get Churchill Downs, though.
It has rewind features, head on, photo finishes, all the tools I think you can use.
Easy to register, and as others posted it's free!
you can select by Horse, Track or Date (for CA tracks)
& selections by Horse shows all tracks where they have run. Nice tool.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on December 03, 2008 at 08:45 PM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 