« | Return to main page | »

FormBlog | June 18, 2009

HandiGambling 138

Today's HandiGambling 138 exercise is the eighth race from Hollywood, a $12,500 claimer with a non-winners of two lifetime condition.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought process about wagering, it would be appreciated.

Let's scratch #4 Mr. Inn Zone and #16 Elusive Chief

Wow!  Where to begin.  These races aren't really anyone's cup of tea, and I can't envision myself playing with anything other than HandiGambling dollars.  We have tackled a few of these races before as HandiGambling exercises, and have found that lightly-raced runners (i.e. not proven losers) seem to do well.  The main issue with this race is that there is a ton of speed, and many horses are returning off long layoffs.  That adds to the chaos factor.  Anyway, here goes.

I landed on three contenders, and must admit that I'm not confident in any of them.  I don't like to play last-out maiden graduates at short prices, but I'M BULLETPROOF (#13) is 12-1 on the morning line, and could be lukeworm on the board thanks to his long layoff.  In fact, he's only raced once since October of 2007.  He may have the right running style to fit this race as a midpack performer in a heat jammed with early speed.  He's five years old with only five lifetime starts so there have probably been significant physical problems, but he shows regularly-spaced works for a solid barn.  I'll take a shot.

ALL MONEY NO LOVE (#7) hasn't raced in over a year, and reportedly has been nursing a condylar fracture injury.  He ran some nice numbers in 2008, and is another that seems to appreciate a little pace in front of him.  The June 11 drill looks very good, and this horse wouldn't be a surprise if, and that's a big if, he runs back to his best off the long benching.  The 5-2 on the morning line isn't very attractive, but he doesn't need to be Exterminator to win this.

BASS RIVER (#2) hasn't raced since September, and he failed at 4-5 in a $4,000 claimer at Golden Gate that day.  It's interesting that he's back on the big circuit despite that loss and subsequent layoff, and he may show some fresh tactical speed from his inside post.  He won off even a longer layoff to take his maiden at Del Mar last year, and looks like an interesting longshot at 15-1 on the morning line.

As for the rest:

LORD IN COMMAND (#1) is once again stuck inside, and he didn't break very well from the rail in his first start of the meet.  He removes the blinkers, and did finish third in a similar event at Santa Anita two starts back.  He is capable of improvement in his second back.  Would you really be shocked if he won this at 20-1?

THUNDERFRMDOWNUNDR (#3) popped and stopped in a key starter allowance heat on April 18.  He looms the speed nearest the rail under the aggressive Martin Pedroza, but should feel some pressure.  A duel would probably work to his disadvantage.

TALE OF A ROCKSTAR (#4) did nothing at 84-1 last time out.  His only win came on dirt at Fairplex, and he hasn't finished in front of a horse since.

MAGNA CUM LAUDE (#6) has had plenty of chances to score at this level to no avail.  Now 1-21 lifetime, he has a hint of early speed, and should be prominent when the field turns for home.  Can we really trust him to hold everyone off this afternoon when he usually finds one or two better?  I can't although he's perfectly logical on form.

SMART OF WAR (#8) will get pace to attack, but he hasn't shown much of a stretch kick in his three previous starts against winners.  He's not a hopeless cause just yet, however, and does show a fast workout on June 10. 

DON'T FORGET MUQ (#9) halves in claiming price after winning his maiden at 22-1 on May 15.  The word on the street is this is a hulking gelding, and it's possible the the 5-year-old is finally growing into his massive body.  Those were some solid fractions he chased last time out, and he still passed a few late.  He's not the worst stab in the world.

SEVEN BELOW (#10) has lots of early speed, but his stamina is questionable, and he often drifts during the all-important stretch run.  The barn removes the blinkers, perhaps hoping this one will relax better, but he may get cooked in the pace scrum.

ENGINE SIXTY NINE (#11) was a strong pace factor in his last two races only to falter when the money was on the line.  His lone victory came in gate-to-wire fashion.  It's possible he's a need-the-lead type.  On paper, at least, that style just doesn't look appealing in this race.

STRENGTH (#14) worked a bullet on June 1, and hasn't shown a published drill in the interim.  He has tactical speed, and the outside post allows him to sit a good stalking trip without getting any cushion kicked in his face.  He hasn't won since March 24, 2007, and that race was at Bay Meadows.  Sure, he can win, but he isn't very trustworthy.

SENOR AFORTUNADO (#14) looms the horse to beat after just missing as the favorite at this level on May 31.  He is a late-kicker that will appreciate the expected quick pace, but he may be forced to lose ground on the turn due to his far outside post position.  A logical contender, but perhaps an underlaid one.

I can't make a very creative play here.

$15 Exacta Box - Bass River, All Money No Love, I'm Bulletproof (2,7,13) - $90
$10 Win - I'm Bulletproof (13) - $10

Good luck to all.

***

I am beginning to cotton to Straight Story in the big race, does anyone know how I can view her last race? Youbet doesn't have it, nor racereplays.com. It's a colonial downs race from May 25th.
slewofdamascus

Straight Story's last race was on May 25, but it was at Belmont Park.  The ninth race.  You should get that on youbet or racereplays.

***

And, do you (or anyone else) have any idea who put up the bonus money if some horse did accomplish that feat?
Keith L.

Jacobs Investments is the sponsor for the Grand Slam of Grass.  I'm assuming they're putting up the cash.

***

I think that false favorites, whether lukewarm 3/1's or bridge jumping 1/9's, offer one of the best gambling opportunities in horse racing.
Steve T.

Great idea. To add to that, I would also like to discuss what to then do with such a race. That is where I falter.
jim tully

Absolutely.  The first thing I do when handicapping a given race is to find the likely favorite, and see if it's vulnerable.  Take today's HandiGambling.  The morning line favorite, All Money No Love, hasn't raced in a year due to injury.  Red flag.  Three-quarters of the time, I see something I don't like, and proceed as if the race is a tremendous betting opportunity.  What do I dislike about the favorite?  Could be many different angles.  I'll watch replays, and I may not like a horse's action.  It may not change leads.  The horse may have received a perfect trip in the most recent start that makes the bare form look better than it really is.  Perhaps the horse will be compromised by today's pace or a different distance or surface.  I hate to play big-figure maiden graduates when they face winners for the first time at short prices because the pace of the race will likely be quicker (i.e. more early pressure and stress) this time around.  Maybe there will be a gap in the work tab, or a questionable class drop, or a poor trainer stat.  Maybe the horse is a chronic underachiever (the Pick Sixes of the world).  Maybe the horse is returning off a long layoff, and the trainer intent isn't there, or the horse was perhaps injured. 
There are so many ways to knock a favorite, and they only win 33% of the time anyway. Now, once we knock the chalk, the hard work begins.  Who can beat him?  Sometimes, as in today's HandiGambling race, you'll find holes in all of the top contenders, and simply throw your hands up in the air.  Many times, I find myself overly critical of the top contenders.  If I can't find someone to beat the favorite, I pass the race more often than not. 
We work hard in our handicapping, and deserve to be rewarded.  Sometimes a favorite is unbeatable on the form, and we have to go with it from a multi-race standpoint.  Most of the time, it pays to try and beat the chalk. Of course, that's easier said than done.  How do we get the maximum bang for the buck when we find a vulnerable favorite?  That's up to the individual horseplayer to decide.  What's your comfort zone?  Do you drop the hammer with a win bet on an overlaid contender?  Do you play exotics looking for the big score?  I don't think there's one "right" way to capitalize, and I'm not a proponent of a hard-and-fast "system" for playing the races.  I think it's more a feel for the race. Do you believe the favorite will run out?  Then, by all means, go for the gusto with exotics.  If you think the chalk will be there, but is more likely an underneath horse than a winner, perhaps you may want to play another to win.  More conservative players may play the "natural" saver of a Win and Place bet.  It's truly a fascinating and puzzling game.

***

Do you remember from last year if, on Colonial Downs' major race days (like this Sat) their Pick 4 pools received significant play ($100 k or greater) or stayed small?  The 50 cent P4 for the stakes races could prove interesting if the pools are large enough.
Cycleguy

The Pick 4 pool for last year's Colonial Turf Cup card was $17,616 although, for some reason, the big race itself wasn't part of the sequence.  The same weird scenario happened on Virginia Derby day.  The race wasn't part of the Pick 4, and the pool for the wager was $17,864.  This year...same deal.  They have an All-Stakes Pick 3, but the Pick 4 is earlier on the card.  Last year's Pick 3, culminating with the Virginia Derby, had a $77,286 pool.

***

Got a question:
Saturday, Brother Keith is running at Belmont in the 6th, a N2L allowance at 6 1/2.
He's a gelding.
Has he always run as a gelding, or is this a first-time thing? 
Kyri

Brother Keith was listed as a gelding in the past performances for his most recent start at Churchill Downs.  I don't know when he was gelded.

***

4.  Dan:  May I suggest some changes to DRF PP's?  Why can't we get horse to gelding changes?  The programs have them or they are announced on race days.
How about Supplemental nominations?  
Ron Zuercher

I would love to have first-time gelding changes listed in the past performances, but spotty and late reporting of these changes (whether it be from the trainer, the racing office, the Jockey Club, or Equibase) makes it impossible to get an all-encompassing record that gives us 100% confidence in the reporting.  There are some jurisdictions that list first-time geldings in the program (Southern California, for instance), but trainers there have even come under fire for not reporting the gelding in a timely and proper fashion.
As for supplemental nominations, that would likely be an Equibase issue as they send us the data.

***

Dan - I show you some respect and then you state "like Scott Stevens going after some hapless New York Ranger."
I hope you are not one of the 37 NJ Devil fans out there because, on behalf of the millions of Ranger fans, we are very disappointed.
CM

Not really a big hockey guy, but even Ranger fans would have to admit that Stevens was one of the all-time biggest hitters the sport has ever seen.

***

My DVR stopped right after Jealous Again romped. Very exciting and I congratulate W.W.--great work on the other side of the pond but I had made some mythical selections (no TVG account at this point) and I never got the 2nd or 3rd place finishers as well as the exacta/trifecta payoffs. I'm sure it has been posted somewhere but I'm not finding it. Could someone post them please?
meadowlake59

Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2)

1.  Jealous Again (6/1 odds)
2.  Misheer (9/1)
3.  Ceedwell (12/1)

These are the $1 payouts listed on the TVG site.

Exacta:  $70.50
Trifecta:  $407.60

***

Looking through Alydar's PP's I saw Believe It caught 2nd in his maiden breaker with Sauce Boat third. Did Believe It ever take a GR 1? How about Sauce Boat?
Mathieu

Believe It won the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at three.  Sauce Boat's Grade 1 win came in the Arlington-Washington Futurity at two.

***

I can't argue with those who say Yeats may have lost a step (is he a stallion, so we could look forward to his foals?)
Kyri

The amazing Yeats is intact.  Imagine what the response would be if he stood in the states.  Crickets.  A shame.

***

Hi Dan,
Could you post the lifetime pps of one sometimes forgotten champion under the shadow of a Monster, I mean the great SHAM!!
Thank you so much!
Jose Iglesias Garcia

Unfortunately, the database from which I grab past performances doens't go back that far.  I'll be doing a past champions retrospective on Secretariat in the near future so keep an eye out for that.  Sham will certainly be referenced many, many times.

***

Back later with some weekend stakes opinions.

Dan

Posted by dan_illman on June 18, 2009 | Permalink

---

Keywords:

---

Comments

HG138

With N2Ls, all conventional theory goes out the window...and we have to wade through 14 of them.

Sharp recent action from Strength (#14) is encouraging enough. He was competitive in his last out, and recorded a nice work since that race.

Since we're using mythical dough, I'm gonna hit the ALL button.

Bet:

$24 Win/Place on #14 = $48
$2 Exacta 14/ALL = $26
$2 Exacta ALL/14 = $26

Posted by: baltimore_brian on June 18, 2009 at 05:10 PM

---

-->

HG 138

I have no clue how this race will play out..so I'll take a stab at it with the #3 horse.

$100 to win on #3

Posted by: addc26 on June 18, 2009 at 05:13 PM

---

-->

Handigambling - Revised:

Don't see my last post yet but I made a mistake. Meant to use the 6 but typed 7.

40 Win 3
20 PLc 3

5 Ex 3 w. 2,6
3 Ex Bx 2-3-6.
2 Tri bx. 2-3-6.

Posted by: CM on June 18, 2009 at 05:15 PM

---

-->

HandiGambling 138:

I'll take #3 as best speed, #2 had some trouble in the bottom level claimer last out, ran fairly well stalking pace at DMR last summer, #7 back class and Ellis can really get them ready off a long layoff.

The Bet:

$15 Ex Box 2,3,7

$1 Tri Box 2,3,7

$4 Tri 7-3-2

Posted by: James Mc on June 18, 2009 at 05:20 PM

---

-->

HG 137:

A) Several possible winners coming back off long vacations.
B) Cheap, early speed in abundance.
C) Most of these are either confirmed non-winners or still possible of eventual improvement.

A group:

#3-Thunderfrmdownunder(ML/8-1)—After a year off he won his 3-yo debut for Mulhall and the second place finisher flattered by coming back with a win. In too tough last time, this should be a level that is more appropriate. Plenty of early speed to challenge is the major concern.

#13-I’m Bulletproof(ML/12-1)—Hard to argue with last race—after 13 months he wins smartly and now gets wheeled back after “only” less than 11 months. Never been this low but if Jack has him ready he should pay nicely with an off-the-pace trip that figures to be a strategic advantage.

#2-Bass River(ML/15-1)—Like the one above, has won off a 13 month layoff and BSFs would seem to be more than adequate—the 9 months since being claimed is either discouraging or encouraging depending on how you thing Metz has brought him along. Works look good and stalking style should prove advantageous.

B group:

#7-All Money No Love(ML/5-2)—Ellis’ ability with runners off the bench well-noted but ml not attractive and works steady but unspectacular. Class drop a bit severe but Valdivia stays on so there must be some confidence. Certainly merits respect but these type races demand value.

#15-Senor Afortunado(ML/3-1)—Bridesmaid last two with honest fractions, scratch draws this one in and with enough early pace could pick up the pieces but appears to avoid getting his picture taken (10/1-3-2). Shortened distance seems curious. Exotic play underneath?

#6-Magna Cum Laude(ML/8-1)—See above (21/1-3-4) but with a bit more natural speed. Hard to ignore possibility but prefer him for minor award.

#9-Don’t Forget Muq(ML/12-1)—Big “Ah ha” moment last out at 22-1—won’t be quite that this time—but the move up to winners is not that huge at this level and the fact he is relatively lightly-raced is a plus. Since that bullet 5/8 seems to be a different horse—the best of the second tier?

Wager construction will make the difference—hope I do this part right.

$4 EX Box 3,13,2,9 = $48
$ .20 cent SPR Wheel
3,13,2/3,13,2,9,7/3,13,2,9,7,15,6/3,13,2,9,7,15,6 = $48
$4 WIN --#3

Good Luck and Good Racing

Posted by: meadowlake59 on June 18, 2009 at 05:22 PM

---

-->

I went 0 for 4 at Ascot on Thursday, not really a surprise considering most of the races were 10 furlongs or longer (generally a weakness of mine).

BUT Friday is another day.

Albany Stakes (6f 2yo fillies) - The talk of Ascot from the British perspective is the American horses are R-E-A-L-L-Y FAST!! Apparently they haven't watched many 2yo races from Kentucky or Calder. Anyone who plays 2 year olds in the USA knows that Wesley Ward is very good, but he doesn't have "the secret." I think the fact that they know Johnny V is going be be up by two out of the gate will get them out of their collective game plans. Too bad Yogaroo was a little cheap, otherwise Wesley Ward et. al. might be 3 for 3. As it is, AGEAN has a big chance to make it 3 for 4. Currenly 9/4.

King Edward V Stakes - Everyone knows "you can't beat Father Time.." But how about the racehorse FATHER TIME, who gets a "negative" jock switch as an uncoupled entrymate (that move has worked well a few times this meeting)?

Freemantle was awful Thursday in a very soft spot in his first race back off the Dante. This makes the Dante form look suspect, especially the extremely high Racing Post Rating of 115.

If horses (including the favorite Black Bear Island) are rated off their other races FATHER TIME becomes the top number at 107! F.T. is currently 16/1.

Coronation Stakes - I have been looking forward to this race for 2 months now. GHANAATI is extremely talented and should win easily, unless her 8 week layoff gets her beat. Most British racing "media types" considered her the most likely winner of the meeting coming into Day 1. She's currently 5/2 or 9/4.

Queen's Vase - I don't have a lot of expertise handicapping 16 furlong grass races, but MASTERY looks more talented than the opposition, has won the Italian Derby, and gets Frankie Dettori. Plus Godolphin won a 12 furlong race today so hopefully that is a good sign. Currently 11/2.

Posted by: tony kelso on June 18, 2009 at 05:37 PM

---

-->

handi gamble is is follow...
$4 tri key #7 over 2,4,6,8,14/
2.4,6,8,14 =$80
$20 win #7 =$20

Posted by: derbyfritz on June 18, 2009 at 05:39 PM

---

-->

HANDIGAMBLING 138

$1 SUPERFECTA

3 WITH 2, 6, 12 WITH 2, 6, 7, 12, 13 WITH 2, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13

(60)

$1 TRIFECTA

3 WITH 2, 6, 7, 12, 13 WITH 2, 6, 7, 12, 13

(20)

$1 TRIFECTA

2, 6, 7, 12, 13 WITH 3 WITH 2, 6, 7, 12, 13

(20)

Posted by: eternal_arcadia on June 18, 2009 at 05:44 PM

---

-->

HG

Wow.....we have all types in this one...horses off injury....well-bred disappointments...career beaten claimers .... Betcha the tote lights up in this one. I don't trust any of them, which means I won't get cute with exotics.

Playing consistency and trainer at a price:

$60 w/ #6 (Magna Cum Laude)
$20 p/ #6
$10 ex.box 6-3

Posted by: Matt M. on June 18, 2009 at 05:46 PM

---

-->

Handicheapclaimergambling:

I like the favorites. I like the 13 for the same reasons Dan does. I like the 12 off the trainer and jockey change; he's run well against better.

$2 TB 7,12,13,15

$2 SB 7,12,13,15

$1 SPW 12,13/12,13/7,15/7,15

Posted by: easygoer on June 18, 2009 at 05:52 PM

---

-->

I am new to this and what a race to start. Not much to pick from but I will take #3 Thunderfrmdownundr as he hasn't yet proved that he is as bad as the others. I will back him up with a price #12 Flatter Me Again - the jockey change could help and will throw out last race as it looks like he quit when the jock lost the whip.

Here goes:

$20 EB 3-12
$40 W 3
$20 W 12

Mike

Posted by: mike12x12 on June 18, 2009 at 05:53 PM

---

-->

Dan

Appreciate your efforts in this space. My question is off the topic but here goes anyway,

For BC day (s), Why doesn't DRF have trainers/jockeys stats listed in PP's for all time BC races? Every other stat imaginable is now in the form...I'm more interested in knowing Mott's record in all time in Mile instead of his record at Oak Tree meet that year which is probably 0 for 0...appreciate your thoughts on this...Brian..SoCal

Posted by: Brian on June 18, 2009 at 05:53 PM

---

-->

HG138: 2 favs look good but lookin for value...so i landed on the #2 Bass River...ran decent vs btr at DelMar..layoff is a concern tho

$5 EBX 2,7,15($30)
$5 TBX 2,7,15($30)
$20 WP 2($40)

Posted by: CarsonCityFan on June 18, 2009 at 06:04 PM

---

-->

HG 138 for the contest today my top picks are All Money Love (year layoff) , Senior Afortunado (closer running style), Flatter Me Again (improving shortens up) and I’m Bulletproof (layoff maiden claiming winner). The others in the race are just as bad. I believe ten of these will show speed and most of them will quit before the journey ends. So here’s my guess, hoping that they finish within a nose a whisker or a hair at the wire.

$1 superfecta 2-6-15 // 2-6-7-14-15 // 2-6-7-14-15 // 2-6-7-14-15 = $72

$1 superfecta 2-6 // 7-14-15 // 7-14-15 // 7-14-15 = $12

$1 Super H-Five 2-6 // 7-14-15 // 7-14-15 // 7-14-15 // 1-7-14-15 = $12

$1 Super H-Five 2-6 // 7 // 15 // 12 // 1 = $2

$1 Super H-Five 2-6 // 7 // 12 // 15 // 1 = $2

Total $100

For the Race of the Day these are the two I like.

8-1 Backbackbackgone -- is entered to run on June 18, 2009 at HOLLYWOOD PARK.
Robert K. Kerlan Memorial H.
Race: 7 Distance: Six Furlongs Surface: Turf Age: 3 – Colt
Race Type: Stakes Purse: $ 70,000
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Peter Miller
Last Raced: 05/24/2009 at HOLLYWOOD PARK in Race 8
Finish Position: 7th

Comments: Dueled between rivals then stalked the leader dropped back in stretch and weakened finishing out of the money in GR III. Winner had good early speed dueled inched away won clear in Turf Stakes at Hollywood Park.

5-1 Sky Cape is entered to run on June 18, 2009 at HOLLYWOOD PARK.
Robert K. Kerlan Memorial H.
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: Kristin Mulhall
Last Raced: 05/21/2009 at HOLLYWOOD PARK in Race 2
Finish Position: 5th

Comments dropping for this and has won at Hollywood going this distance and has raced against more talented runners.

Posted by: TurfRuler on June 18, 2009 at 06:04 PM

---

-->

HG 138

Don't Forget Muq - has turned the corner!

$100 win # 9

Posted by: Real1Quiet on June 18, 2009 at 06:05 PM

---

-->

HG 138:
Would never play this race for real- But would go with the #3 and #9.
Play $60.00 exacta- 3/9
$40.00 exacta- 9/3

Posted by: fort marcy on June 18, 2009 at 06:14 PM

---

-->

This is a tough race for anyone and especially someone more familiar with the NY Circuit. In New York it is usually all about trainers in these races and certainly that is the question with the #7 who appears to be the fastest horse (from previous figs) and has the right running style (midpack) for this type of race. I usually try to bet against these types but I wil not try to beat him and I will use the #7 In exactas with the other horses who appear to have past figures that are competitive and are associated with 'super trainers'.
30$ Exactas 7/12&15 (60$)
20$ Exactas 7/6 & 9 ((40$)

Good Luck to all

Posted by: tedmur on June 18, 2009 at 06:24 PM

---

-->

PGM:
If you were playing the Handigambling Race as a PGM School wager also, it looks like you went $2 bucks over the C note!

PGM School/7th Hollywood.
I like #4 Wild Diplomat with Talamo up,cutting back, should be there at the end at a price.
The strong old 8 yo g. #2 Delata Storm is working good for his return, and can fire fresh.
The Hess runner #9 Hewitts is a useful horse for all surfaces, and the 6/14 3 panel work looks like they'll send him to the lead.
Who knows about the LS Nericon King (AUS), but he looks like he liked to run last year.
I'll go with:
$20 WPS on 4, $5 Quin Box 2,4,9
$ 3 Trifecta: 2,9/2,9/4,6
$ 2 Trifecta: 4/2,9/2,9
$ 5 Win (saver) on #6
Schools out!

Posted by: Keith L. on June 18, 2009 at 06:25 PM

---

-->

HDG

The most logical to benefit from expected pace and shows two good recent efforts at this level is the #15. Also has good trainer and jock. I will keep it simple an try to catch a price underneath:

$7 EX PW: 15 / ALL ($91)
$9 WIN # 15

Dale

Posted by: Dale on June 18, 2009 at 06:25 PM

---

-->

The Contenders

2 – Bass River (15-1) – obviously something went wrong in September when dropped down to 4K and claimed at GG. However, even that effort was not too bad when considering the majority of the field. Has a shot after 8 months off if still together.

7 – All Money No Love (5-2) – returns from over a year absence. Trainer has sterling record from layoffs, but the time off is certainly a concern. Wins off best race, just not sure we’ll see that today.

6 – Magna Cum Laude (8-1) – has run well enough to merit respect. Only 1 for 21 lifetime, but has 7 other trifecta finishes. Potential on the bottom at a bit of the price.

15 – Senior Afortunato (3-1) – drew into the field after running second his last two. Has a nice closing kick and will pick up the pieces late. May hit the exotics with a late run.

13 – I’m Bulletproof (12-1) – is another who returns off an absence. Beat low level maiden claimers in only start last year. Not sure if the wheels on the bus still go round and round, but if they do, he can pick up a share.

The Bets:

I’m going to key the 2 because he should be the bigger price and sprinkle him around a bit too.

$30 Win 2 Bets: 1 Total: $30
$2 Exacta: 2 / 6,7,13,15 Bets: 4 Total: $8
$2 Exacta: 6,7,13,15 / 2 Bets: 4 Total: $8
$1 Trifecta: 2 / 6,7,13,15 / 6,7,13,15
Bets: 12 Total: $12 $2 Trifecta: 2 / 6,7,15 / 6,7,15
Bets: 6 Total: $12 $1 Trifecta: 6,7,15 / 2 / 6,7,15
Bets: 6 Total: $6
$1 Trifecta: 6,7,15 / 6,7,15 / 2 Bets: 6 Total: $6
$0.10 Superfecta: 2 / 6,7,13,15 / 6,7,13,15 / 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15 Bets: 132 Total: $13.20
$0.20 Superfecta: 2 / 6,7,13,15 / 6,7,13,15 / 6,7,13,15 Bets: 24 Total: $4.80

Posted by: Molesap on June 18, 2009 at 06:29 PM

---

-->

great blog dan keep up the good work.

Posted by: raidrock10 on June 18, 2009 at 06:34 PM

---

-->

Revised HandiSchool Wagers:

$22 W/P #3 ($44)
$22 W/P #13 ($44)

$2 Place #7 ($4)
#2 Show #13 ($2)
#2 Show #3 ($2)
$1 EX BOX 3, 13, 7 ($6)

HG Wagers for Cayman's sheet (so he doesn't have to check twice)

$14 EX BOX 3, 13, 7 ($84)
$2 WPS #3 ($6)
$2 WPS $13 ($6)
$2 WP #7 ($4)

Posted by: PGM on June 18, 2009 at 06:37 PM

---

-->

hg 138

i got nothing here

will try to get 40% of a decent super

40c super part wheel

2,3,9,12,13 / 6,7,15 / 2,3,9,12,13 / 1,8,10,14

96 bucks whackypensignout

Posted by: p ensign on June 18, 2009 at 06:41 PM

---

-->

HG 138

Lots of surprises could happen in this one..Lets go for
$5. tri box..7,13,15..$40.00
$2tri.3,7,13/2,3,7,13/2,3,13
$28.00
$10.00 win/place 0n 13..$20.00
$2.00 tri box 2,3,7.....$12.00

Posted by: JP.FL on June 18, 2009 at 06:43 PM

---

-->

Handigambling 138

$5.00 tri box 7,13,15
$5.00 tri box 2,3,13
$5.00 tri box 3,7,13
$10.00 to win on 13

Like the 13 with Talamo

Posted by: JP.FL on June 18, 2009 at 06:53 PM

---

-->

correction to previous post (not a box!)

HG 138
I like the 15, but not for the price. I will take 12. his speed is competitive, the last race had an excuse, and I think this shorter distance will benefit him.
1$ ex (5$) 20 times for 100$
12 with 2,3,7,8,15

Posted by: whittlecj on June 18, 2009 at 07:03 PM

---

-->

HG 138
I was going to go all in on 13. Since Dan used him, I don't want to pile on. I'll take a chance that the 11 is the speed of the speed or, suddenly, Flores (4/70 at meet) will get him to rate.
In case I am wrong, the #6 can't win, but could stagger home 2nd.
$2 Ex, 11 with all = $26
$2 Ex. all with 11 = $26
$3 Ex. all with 6 = $39
For the remaining bankroll:
$3.00 Trifecta
# 7
WT # 6,14
WT # 11,14
$9.00

Posted by: Jim Peregoy on June 18, 2009 at 07:04 PM

---

-->

HG 138

My head is spinning from looking at this race. My analysis, if I had one, would make no sense other than I don't really like anything inside and some outside horses might be over bet. I'll stick to the middle of the field. Here goes...

$8 ex box 6,7,8,9
$1 ex 8,9/6

Posted by: jim tully on June 18, 2009 at 07:05 PM

---

-->

HG 138:
$50 TRI 9/12,15/12,15

I'm thinking MUQ and FLATTER ME should be towards the front early while AFORTUNADO finds himself in the mix late.

Posted by: Matthew B. on June 18, 2009 at 07:05 PM

---

-->

HG 138:

Wasn't sure if we were allowed to play the double involving the HG race the same way we were with the Derby, Preakness and Belmont. If so, then my HG play begins in the 7th race at Hollywood:

$25 Daily Double 9 w/2,3,6,10 = $100

Love Hewitts in the 7th. Then in the 8th, they're mostly all losers, so I won't be as scared off by a 1-for-21 as I might otherwise. I'll use some horses that have shown some competitive spirit early in races, and hope that one or two of them decide to sit just off the pace today. I always get burned when speed horses change their style without consulting me, and I end up missing out on a good price.

Anyway, if we're not allowed to use the 7th-8th daily double, then I'll come back in with my 8th race play if/when I hear back from someone...

Posted by: Scott on June 18, 2009 at 07:07 PM

---

-->

HandiG 138

Zan the Man
Thanks for your selection this week.
I didn't think I would look at this race or have time. I did, and I didn't, so to muddle thru..Yikes I may as well use the dart board,or ouiji Board.
No PGH, so that is good. So, in true silly name fashion, I'll go with a favorite LV show. The Blue thongs will love it.
#3 THUNDERFRMDOWNUNDR
No 2$ bet here...

50$ Win/Place on #3 =$100

Posted by: SR Vegas on June 18, 2009 at 07:09 PM

---

-->

Tony Kelso,

On the contrary about the Dante race you referenced with Freemantle. The 6th & 4th place finishers from that race ran 1st & 3rd today against Freemantle. Just a little FYI. Seems like the Euros will be jumping on AEGEAN and GHANAATI based on reports that I've read on the RP. What's your thoughts on the O'Brien runner in the Albany? Graded winner stretching to 7f's. I wonder if AEGEAN can stretch her speed that far.

I'll be back with my picks later tonight.

Posted by: Causeways37 on June 18, 2009 at 07:10 PM

---

-->

HG 138

#12 Speed in routes and recent 7f. Cutback to 6f should be the perfect spot.
#3 Lightly raced; drop here should fit.
#9 Strong pace figures; taste of winners circle should bring another good effort.

$1 ex box 3,6,9,12,14
$1 ex 3,9,12,14 / 3,6,9,12,14
$2 ex box 3,9,12
$1 ex 3,9,12 / 1,2,3,6,8,9,12,14,15
$14 win 12
$14 place 12

Posted by: TejanoRun on June 18, 2009 at 07:22 PM

---

-->

First time poster, long time reader. I have really enjoyed all the different discussions & opinions (some more heated then others), all the handicapping conversations & tips and most of all the passion for this game everyone here brings to the table. I'd like to throw my hat in the ring for this week's HG exercise.

Don't normally have much use for horses coming off long layoffs, especially in such a crowded field, but this race doesn't offer many other viable selections, IMHO.

$50exacta box 2-7. Good luck to all!

Posted by: Dan R. on June 18, 2009 at 07:25 PM

---

-->

Ok, here's my HG 138 play if my daily double beginning in the 7th was disallowed.

I know there's a ton of speed in here, but none of the closers, particularly the 15, are reliable.

As such, I'll play a speed horse with a good post who may decide to lay just off today: Seven Below (#10).

I'll play him $25 to win and $75 to place.

Posted by: Scott on June 18, 2009 at 07:32 PM

---

-->

update on hg wager due to odd discrepancy

2,3,6,12,13 / 7,9,15 / 2,3,6,12,13 / 1,8,10,14

still a 40c super, with one transposed number

surprised Tyler didn't get Hewitt's out there...

Posted by: p ensign on June 18, 2009 at 07:33 PM

---

-->

then again, how much faster than 7 and 4 could he have gone?

wow, quick time!

nice run off the layoff for Storm Delta

Posted by: p ensign on June 18, 2009 at 07:35 PM

---

-->

great trainer stats off the layoff...right pace style.-->7

a couple more closers for 2nd

$40 exacta 7/14,15
$20 exacta 7/14

Posted by: mike on June 18, 2009 at 07:35 PM

---

-->

if I'm not too late -

I'll take $100 Across the board on Seven Below!

Laura

Posted by: Laura on June 18, 2009 at 07:37 PM

---

-->

Wow! Just saw there's one live pick six ticket, to Don't Forget Muq, for over $500K. It carries to everyone else...

I'm officially rooting for a carryover, but if DFM is neck and neck at the 1/8th pole, I'll change my allegiance and root for the single ticketholder...

Posted by: Scott on June 18, 2009 at 07:38 PM

---

-->

$25 Tri partial key

9,3/3,9,15/3,9,15

Muq passed horses for the 1st time last out, #3 is lightly raced, is dropping, and has speed, and Senor fits but is a dead hanger.

Posted by: Mathieu on June 18, 2009 at 07:40 PM

---

-->

HG 138

60 win #6
40 pl #6

Posted by: buffalo joe on June 18, 2009 at 07:41 PM

---

-->

Dan:
Thanks for the info on the Grand Slam bonus.

SR Vegas:
I would have thought you would have wagered the SHOW!

Posted by: Keith L. on June 18, 2009 at 07:53 PM

---

-->

60 win #7
20.00 exacta's 7/8 7/9

Posted by: Mike on June 18, 2009 at 07:54 PM

---

-->

Keith L.

Here’s some information regarding Holloween Candy’s distaff side.

As you stated, the sire of the pretty gray maiden filly, Holloween Candy (spelled correctly), is Candy Ride. Her dam Spooky Minister (by Deputy Minister) is an unraced five year old mare and this is her first foal. Spooky Minister has four brothers, all four raced and three are winners. Her most accomplished sibling is her half brother Broadway Minster, who was second to Startac in the Grade 2 Generous Stakes. The Generous Stakes is for two year olds going a mile on turf. Her full brother Ghostly Minister won three of 27 races and is standing in West Virginia (breeding motto: We’ll take anybody).

Spooky Minister’s sire Deputy Minister was named two year old Champion in the USA and Canada in 1981 and took also took Canadian Horse of the Year honors that same year. As a sire, he gave us the major stallions Dehere, Awesome Again, and Touch Gold, but his legacy is that of a broodmare and damsire sire, producing the blue hen, Better Than Honour, Go For Wand, Open Mind and Keeper Hill and his daughters produced Rags to Riches, Curlin, Halfbridled, etc.

Spooky Minster is the only filly out of Lunar Spook (by Silver Ghost), winner of the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes (8.5F) and Grade 2 Davona Dale Stakes (1 mile 70 yards). She was third in a couple of Grade 2 races, the Bonnie Miss (8.5F) and Forward Gal Stakes (7F).

Lunar Spook is the single graded stakes winner in four generations (going back to the 1950’s), which shows that you never can tell where that stakes horse is going to come from. Unfortunately, four subsequent attempts to re-produce a stakes winner from the same breeding were unsuccessful, with the best runner placing second in a minor stakes. Lunar Spook’s three quarter brother (out of her half sister and by Silver Ghost) is Cashel Castle, a stakes winner at two and Grade 3 winner at three. He currently stands in Florida. Graded Stakes placed Mr. Triester is a grandson of one of Lunar Spook’s half sisters.

It’s interesting to note that all of Spooky Minster’s siblings are bay or dark brown, yet Spooky Minster, the only filly produced by her dam, is gray, as is her daughter, Holloween Candy.

Posted by: Laura on June 18, 2009 at 08:22 PM

---

-->

Dan (and SR Vegas):

I'd like to suggest that you consider giving a consolation prize to the blue thong or blue boxer handicapper who puts the most $$$ on a pick to WIN, only to see the poor thing finish at the back of the pack! At least an honorable mention would be nice!

Posted by: Keith L. on June 18, 2009 at 08:47 PM

---

-->

**HandiSchool, Race 10**

Once again, the savers saved me from getting a donut. I used a WP saver in the turf sprint to at least salvage $13.60. We're still well underwater. Maybe a race from a Twilight Friday might help.

--ROTD, Race 10, Arlington Park

Let's go one-by-one, playing this for a non-firm grass course.

#1, Laureldean Gate. You take the good (the Keeneland N1X allowance), you take the bad (the N2X or the first start of the year), you take them both and there you have this one. Has the yo-yo form pointing up, gets Campbell. But he won't be alone on the front end early. Usable in savers, especially paired with Mrs. Garrett. (C)

#2, Kimbo. The progression is nice and Perez is steady, but we're getting first time grass with no works on the weeds. However we've been in a rainy season in Chicago so this could be shifted to the poly. Watch the skies. (B- poly, C+ turf)

#3, Chantilly Lady: In five prior tries in N2X company, this one has finished between fifth and seventh. In three prior tries on yielding/soft turf, same story. Winless at AP. Next. (D)

#4, Curvy Doll: Yet another going first time grass sans work. Gets weight for lowered age. Could regress off the 7F win, but she beat a next out winner. Mixed feelings. (C)

#5, My Spanx: Ships up from Texas for this N2X. Clearly a turf horse and does have two placings in this condition. Team is 32% away from Arlingon. Worth considering (B+)

#6, Jolie Visage: Third off the shelf and the switch to Emigh are nice. So is the fact that the second place runner from the last race recently won a $50K stakes. However, his record on this course and the two '09 duds give me more mixed feelings. (C)

#7, Fighter Wing: Lots of nice names in the pedigree. This one will try to pull the wire job like he did in the last start. But #1 will be gunning too and it won't be easy, especially with a rider downgrade. Taking a stand. (C-)

#8, Romin Robin: Had some nice races at Gulfstream and I'll give her a free pass for the off-the-turf Double Delta; the Poly was a bit of a carousel that day. Likable. (B-)

#9, Woodford Girl: Fourth in a n2x turf allowance that doubled as a past HG race. Lost to Laureldean Gate three back. This one has the look of one that will get minor awards but not be dropped in class. Call me in about five races or so when this one wins. (C-)

#10, Elle Tish Slew. Her two wins have been on Hawthorne dirt, each a year apart. But last out she wasn't that far behind Cherokee Queen--the winner of the $50K stakes recently, was ahead of Jolie Visage, and I like the switch to Graham. Watch the board. (C+)

Reasoning:

A tough little after-work feature. I'll go with My Spanx for the solid team. I'd use savers on #'s 1, 2, 8 and 10 though.

WAGERS (for turf):

$39 WP #5 ($78)
$.50 TRI box 1, 5, 8, 10 ($12)
$2 WP #10 ($4)
$2 WP #8 ($4)
$2 W #1 ($2)

[(For poly):

Substitute the #2 for the #1.]

Posted by: PGM on June 18, 2009 at 11:11 PM

---

-->

Laura:
Thanks for the info. Brad Free had made a brief mention of this filly who had impressed him with one most latest breeze effort. The suggestion was we watch for her at Del Mar, which I most certainly intend to do.

Seems a possible eventual career on Turf might be right up this one's alley. I'm surprized that more Candy Rides haven't found themselves on the lawn as of yet.
Thanks.

Posted by: Keith L. on June 18, 2009 at 11:15 PM

---

-->

On the Handigambling 138, Cayman will have the final word, but it looks like Kyn, Dale, and I all made good plays, but the cigar goes to
...(drumroll)...Van Savant!
Congratulations!

PGM: I'll bet you are thrilled to be in Arlington for school now, hmmm?

Posted by: Keith L. on June 19, 2009 at 12:18 AM

---

-->

Short on time and, haven't put much into tomorrow at Ascot. I am $90 ahead so I will play. Just have to make a comment about Yeats winning his 4th Gold Cup. For one those who watched really watched history IMO.

He has to be considered up there with the best stayers in history, if not the best. In my mind there is no doubt that the horse knows when he is runnning at Ascot and knows it's the Gold Cup. Was just so full of himself after running 20F today, like he could do it again that I have to believe there is alittle magic between Yeats and Ascot!

Here is my thoughts for tomorrow. Haven't put great study in but, playing against the favs. for the most part. Also remember that I am playing mainly Ex/Tri boxes with some W/WP BETS.

The Albany S., #11 Falling Angel, #1 Above Limits, #3 Aegean, #6 Chachamidee.

King Edward S., #4 Debussy, #11 South Easter, #6 Free Agent. Not only is Free Agent a really nice looking horse, just happens to be owned by the Queen and a pretty good runner.

Coronation S., I think #9 Rainbow View bounces back here and shows her class, with that said I am really high on #4 Elusive Wave, also like #10 Reggane.

Queen's Vase, really a tough one to get a handle on in the short time I spent on their form. Settled on #12 Stately Home as the most likely winner, also like #4 Dhushan, #11 Sabatoge, and #8 Lethal Glaze.

Really looking forward to the Golden Jubilee Saturday. This one will be one for the ages IMO.

Good Luck to All!

Posted by: Johnny Z on June 19, 2009 at 12:24 AM

---

-->

Keith L

LOL! Thanks for the "atta girl...he-he-he
But I think someone put a $100 win on #3
That's why I picked a $50 W/P instead.

Oh well, it shows I still have alot to learn.

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on June 19, 2009 at 12:35 AM

---

-->

Albany Stakes is SIX furlongs:

This is what the RP has on the O'Brien Filly:

LILLIE LANGTRY has bright prospects of following the example of Cuis Ghaire who won the same Naas Group 3 on her way to victory here last year but she faces a very serious rival in the shape of unbeaten AEGEAN, whose Churchill Downs win was franked in no uncertain terms by Jealous Again on Wednesday. Chachamaidee may be the pick of the others.[Frank Carter of Racing Post]

I like the American at 6 furlongs....

Posted by: tony kelso on June 19, 2009 at 01:27 AM

---

-->

Big Pick 6 carry over at HOL for Friday night racing action. I'm just settling in to take a look and would appreciate any and all opinions. I'll post some thoughts Friday.

Posted by: Molesap on June 19, 2009 at 02:03 AM

---

-->

Royal Ascot (Day 4)

Well, out of the 4 races I played yesterday, my top choices didn't hit 1st, but my saver bets got slightly in the black. Let's see if we can do a little better on Friday.

Albany Stakes - Very tough race as their are plenty of lightly raced horses with plenty of potential, but the ones with more experience are going to be tough to beat on paper alone. W. Ward's AEGEAN was cut from 10-1 down to 2-1 in two days and catches an easier field compared to what stablemate JEALOUS AGAIN caught two days ago. A must use, but no lock. Aiden O'Brien's Lillie Langtry has by far and away the best numbers for the Euros and has a G3 win while the others just got their diploma's. See her as the one to beat. Give a longshot look to STATELY CHARACTER. Won debut by 5 and gets a good post and pace infront of her.

TRI 19/3/1,2,6,11,14,15,17,21,22
EXA 19/1,2,6,11,14,15,17,21,22
3/1,2,6,11,14,15,17,21,22

King Edward Stakes

Tough race here. BLACK BEAR ISLAND is the obvious one here as he's the only G2 winner in here and that form was flattered when the 6th place finisher came back to win yesterday. Rabbit should set things up for him but I'll try to beat him as he's cold on the board @ 3/1 in Europe. NATIVE RULER comes out of the Dante Stakes in which the favorite won but was only beaten 4L for it all @ 20/1. Improving numbers and like the fact that the jock jumps off FATHER TIME to for this one and is geting pelted as he's currently 6/1. Could be a sleeper as he makes just his 4th lifetime start. FREE AGENT ran respectable last time out for her majesty off an 11 month layoff. 2nd off the layoff should expect improvement with this one at a good price to boot. AQWAAL has won 4 in a row albeit against lesser but with so much spotty form in here he could land a piece.

EXB 1,2,6,9,11,12

Coronation Stakes - Probably the best race of the meeting as 3 Classic winners get together to slug it out. Everyone and their mother has landed on GHANAATI and rightly so. This one just oozes in talent and won very smartly in the Guineas last time out. Has tactical speed to stay with ELUSIVE WAVE if she tries to idle herself early. French Guineas winner has lost only once in her career and sans that has not done much wrong. 1 hole poses a little issue but connections are confident she will put in a strong performance. RAINBOW VIEW was all the talk this spring but 2 year old champ has been finding hard luck this year as the ground has not been to her liking this year and catches another fast ground here at Ascot. Wait until she finds some rain elsewhere. HEART SHAPED has had good form since the BC and could land a piece. Irish Guineas winner AGAIN seems the staying type as 8f's might be too sharp for her.

TRI 4,5/4,5/1,2,6,9,10 reverse 2nd 3rd hole.
EXA 5/1,2,4,6,9,10

Wolferton HDCP - I'll take a stab with MORES WELLS (20/1) here. Been facing much much tougher groups lately and takes a much need class relief. Form shows a 3rd to New Approach last year. SALUTE HIM could be a decent play as well.

Queens Vase - 3 year olds going 2 miles here while all haven't gone beyond 12f's yet. Could be a grab bag but I'm going with recent maiden winner DHUSHAN. They've been pointing him to run long through his 1st two tries and his maiden breaker last time out was a beauty when odds on winning well clear in a 13 runner field. Seems to me the only one in here that would relish this distance. Should get 3-5 to 1 on this one.

Buckingham Palace - SWIFT GIFT just won at the course and distance last month in a 29 runner field while well clear. 8-1 m/l in a big field should be solid. Watch out for Seasider. Juddmonte horse is lightly raced and was well thought of early in his career. Obviously has had some problems but R.Moore sticks around for this one and could be live as he is on the tote in Europe.

Good luck to all!

Posted by: Causeways37 on June 19, 2009 at 02:09 AM

---

-->

Well, we at Arlington can't catch a break weather wise-Prarie State Festival tomorrow and the weather is ATROCIOUS! Should stop raining around midnight and may have sun when we wake up but by then who knows about the grass. PGM-while it isn't official yet I'd bet a ton that they'll be off the grass today. Managed to catch the 40/1 shot in the 10th at Arlington as a leaderboard wager in the Twinspires.com yesterday to move up to 2nd for the month so I'm gonna have to get serious and use all my "bulletts"

Here are a few sneaky prices today: First at Monmouth. (Only $80 out of first, and one win out of first in the contest) so I'm gonna take a shot with 9-Impressive Time who for some reason is the bris prime top. Off 11 months but is dropping to maiden claimers One of those "what the heck" shots

In Arlington's 8th-I'll take a shot with 6-Stormy Ballad. Counting on race coming off the grass(Stormy Atlantic a fine poly sire) Only 2 turn race (on the grass) was ok, and if they've fixed the problems could get a nice trip just off the speed at a generous price.

In the 9th-Kristfek from Arlington likes 2-Iron Vow at a price (12/1 ML)Has a few ok works since his vacation and despite the poor Tampa form, connections aren't willing to drop for a tag. Maybe the blinks coming off and the poly (he's run well here) will be the recipe for a nice priced winner.

Saw some nice double digit shots for tomorrow as well (try to remember to post tomorrow morning but I will tell you now that I talked Mike into running Tatum Girl in the 3rd at Arlington tomorrow-she's never been off the board in a turf claiming sprint and last race was better than it looked.(Inez-I love you but stay out of the way!) and she's sitting on a big race and is 15/1 ML. Plenty of speed for us to run at-just hoping they stay on the grass

Posted by: Stephen Taylor on June 19, 2009 at 10:01 AM

---

-->

In the money finishes.

9-2 Starforaday – (MTO) is entered to run on June 19, 2009 at BELMONT PARK.
Race: 4 Distance: Seven Furlongs Surface: Turf Age: 6 – Horse
Race Type: Claiming Purse: $ 20,000
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Gary C. Contessa
Last Raced: 04/23/2009 at AQUEDUCT in Race 6
Finish Position: 6th

Comments: SCRATCH from race 05-01-09 at Belmont Park.

6-1 Lucky Money (IRE) is entered to run on June 19, 2009 at BELMONT PARK.
Race: 8 Distance: Six Furlongs Surface: Turf Age: 4 – Colt
Race Type: Allowance Optional Claiming Purse: $ 49,000
Jockey: Christopher P. DeCarlo
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Last Raced: 05/17/2009 at BELMONT PARK in Race 8
Finish Position: 7th

Comments: Has run a Beyer of 95 or higher.

8-1 Big Bad Leroybrown -- is entered to run on June 19, 2009 at HOLLYWOOD PARK.
Race: 4 Distance: Seven Furlongs Surface: All Weather Track Age: 5 – Horse
Race Type: Claiming Purse: $ 37,000
Jockey: Tyler Baze
Trainer: Donald Warren
Last Raced: 06/05/2009 at GOLDEN GATE FIELDS in Race 3
Finish Position: 3rd

Comments: Droping down from Stakes and Allw to mid-level claimer. Tracked leaders in 4 horse race lacked needed rally in Allw. Finished out of the moey in Allw Clm. Good early speed dueled weakened finishing out of the money in Stakes. Switch to turf chased outfinished in Handicap. Finishes 2nd in Sprint Stakes.

Posted by: TurfRuler on June 19, 2009 at 10:35 AM

---

-->

Keith L.

Sounds a lot like the Keno wager when you dont hit one number. I like it!!!

BigEasyBigChok

Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on June 19, 2009 at 10:44 AM

---

-->

Katieattherail:
HI, saw your check in yesterday. I see you are doing it at Monmouth without relying on chalk...good for you! Hang in there.

I'm frustrated by their new web site, though. Some nerd was let loose, and complicted what was once one of the most quickly accessible info sites around: now its a swamp to wade through. Sometimes simplier is better!

Posted by: Keith L. on June 19, 2009 at 10:46 AM

---

-->

Colonial Downs Grand Slam of Turf Free Handicapping Contest begins tomorrow (6/20)and runs through Virginia Derby Day. They had problems with their contest registration page for Microsoft Internet Explorer access, but fixed it now, and I was able to register today.
You might want to check this one out!

HOWEVER: when trying several times today to access their "Racing Information" section, the site immediately shut down my Internet Explorer. Have no trouble elsewhere, so I take it they still have a few bugs to work out there. Anyone else that has the same problem please give us a shout out here.
Thanks.

Posted by: Keith L. on June 19, 2009 at 10:51 AM

---

-->

I can't think of a clearer sign of the disastrous state of the U.S. racing industry, and the incompetent "leadership" that has been largely responsible for the recent, precipitous decline, than this quote from the CEO of Churchill Downs:

"Tracks without (video) slots are going to struggle mightily, there's no way around that," Bob Evans told about 200 people who attended the company's annual shareholders meeting at Churchill Downs.

***

Rather than addressing the core problems facing the industry, and coming up with creative ways to stop the bleeding and attract new and bigger bettors into the game, Evans is essentially saying that racetracks can't survive without subsidies from another, unrelated form of gambling.

Rather than making the powerful point that gamblers who put time into learning about Thoroughbred racing can actually make money, as opposed to those who lose consistently by playing games of pure chance (e.g. slot machines), Evans makes appeals for subsidies that contribute nothing to the repair of deep structural problems in the industry.

Truly pathetic.

Posted by: tinky on June 19, 2009 at 11:08 AM

---

-->

Tinky,

Great point! It seems that the various leaders (CEOs of tracks, etc.) are nothing more than accountants, lawyers, or other, that are merely in place due to perceived management abilities...

Are they even fans??? Or do they just play the part when the cameras and microphones are on??

This sport is doomed with this kind of "leadership"...

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on June 19, 2009 at 11:28 AM

---

-->

Handigambling 138 Recap:

And this is why we don't play these races with real money!
My fingers went into auto mode punching "0" for most everybody!

Congrats to VAN SAVANT who wears the crown this week with a total of......$268.90.
I think that's the second lowest winner's score outside of TBTA's Derby score of like $30.

Brutal race.

DALE came in second with a nice comeback after his DQ, and BUFFALO JOE hits the board with, of all things, a PLACE bet that scored nearly $200.

Enjoy those pp's Van Savant. You are a gentleman and a scholar. Pick us a good one for next week!

Posted by: cayman01 on June 19, 2009 at 11:54 AM

---

-->

The Colonial Downs On-line Handicapping Contest has a highly unusual type of wagering for a contest that I have ever seen. The rules states:

In order to participate, contestants will select one horse in each of the four contest races selected every race day (generally, races 4-7) and receive the following contest wagers: a mythical $2 win, place and show wager, a mythical $2 Exacta, a mythical $2 Trifecta, and a mythical $2 Superfecta,. Put the program number of each selection in the corresponding box.

For each race there is a box for:
Race 8 -- WPS
Race 9 -- 3 Horse Exacta Box
Race 10 – 4 Horse Trifecta Box
Race 11 – 5 Horse Superfecta Box

http://www.colonialdowns.com/onlinecontest/
http://www.colonialdowns.com/onlinecontest/game.php

Posted by: TurfRuler on June 19, 2009 at 12:08 PM

---

-->

PGM School/ROTD

We have a yielding surface today and at this point no scratches up. This points me to the 6 , Jolie Visage, who has had some very decent runs over the less than firm going AND gets me off the class horse ,LAURELDEAN GALE, who is less than stellar on the off going.

I think I'll get more bang for my buck with WPS on the 6 than shotgunning her in the exacta.

$40 W 6
$30 PS 6

Posted by: cayman01 on June 19, 2009 at 12:16 PM

---

-->

Tinky,

Unfortunately you make a very good point. Seems that since more and more tracks are owned by large corporations the responsibility has shifted from horseplayers and patrons to shareholders of the corporation which, to the them, means higher returns for stockholders. My guess is instead of these companies setting the standard they are copying the business model from tracks such as Philidelphia Park and attempting to compete with RIver Boats and other forms of gambling. Hopefully the implementation of slots at some of these tracks will ultimately bring us, the fans and horse players, better quality of live racing. Hopefully. You would think that these leaders of thes track owning corporations could find another avenue to attract new fans and better compete with other disposable income outlets.

Thank you and Blue Horseshoe for your comments.

BigEasyBigChok

Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on June 19, 2009 at 12:46 PM

---

-->

Yesterday we had two favorites (Get Funky and All Money No Love) who fell on their faces. Although not out and out false favorites, both were viewed rightfully with suspicion:

Posting about All Money No Love, Dan said “…this horse wouldn't be a surprise if, and that's a big if, he runs back to his best off the long benching. The 5-2 on the morning line isn't very attractive”

Posting about Get Funky, I said “Is he set to disappoint? It looks like he could. A false favorite? I wouldn’t go that far, but very dicey at low odds.”

Posting about All Money No Love, Kyri said “All Money No Love, the 7, was meant to be a better horse than this and had a pretty good record before the layoff. He could win, or run last. 5/2 is not a bargain, however.”

So we have two favorites, one running in a handicap, and one in a low level N2L who didn’t hit the board. These two are really prototypical of the most aggravating types of runners – they aren’t out and out false favorites, but they are really close. They are money burners because you feel you have to use them as a saver “just in case” they do run. The standard statement on these pre-race from handicappers is “if they run back to previous form they will win…”

We as a group consistently avoid these types as our main betting interest, but they still cost us because of the possibility that they might run. There is a fine line between identifying false favorites and being overly critical of ANY favorite. I don’t think you can develop a “system” to avoid them, but can use every piece of data to identify them. Maybe the answer is to just take a stand – they are either in or out, and if you’re wrong, you’re wrong. The second part I think is to have an attitude that you were just given a gift – you can knock the favorite out of the equation and concentrate on others who can provide a much higher rate of return.

Here are some random questions and thoughts I have about identifying false favorites:

California has the claiming waiver rule on the books – do you view a runner suspiciously if they DON’T use the waiver?

How many runners who come off a long payoff and are then entered in a lower class level in their comeback race fail to perform? My gut says the number is pretty large – but like a lot of things in horse racing, there is no data.

Are stakes types a better bet coming back off of layoffs? Some, like Midnight Lute are fairly easy to read (of course running a track record in a work doesn’t hurt…).

One of the types that burn me are the younger horses (especially colts) who are off 2-3 months that show back up in a claimer (many times with first time front bandages) – all of which screams bowed tendon. The issue with these types is that many can still run, but you know that every step is dicey. The trainer wants them gone. One that I remember is a Dixie Union colt by the name of Hoods Up, who looked great, running in open company allowances and then he went on the shelf for two months and came back in a lower level claimer with front bandages. He raced that once and has not been back. If he ran he was light years better than the rest.

What do you do when there is another factor in the mix? For example a horse that went on the shelf at a dirt track and now comes back to run at a synthetic track. Not only is he coming back from the layoff but is now trying a new surface – are they just straight tosses? Nothing in this game is that cut and dried, but…

Another red flag category is a route horse coming back from a layoff in a sprint – this one almost never seems to work, but that could just be my experience. The trainers that use this move almost always seem to be treating it as an extended work. Dick Mandella uses the first race or two to finish their conditioning. Many times they are nice horses, but you also know they are at about 80-90%, which many times is enough to take down that field.

When do you take a shot with a runner who is off form? One like Get Funky. He ran poorly in the BC, came back and ran poorly in a 5F turf race and now has run poorly in a 6F turf sprint. This is one time when I don’t care if they came off of a Grade 1 and are now in a $25K claimer, I won’t touch them if they have three off form races – until I see some kind of life they are tosses.

Is there a particular pace scenario that helps or hinders a runner coming off of a layoff? Are frontrunning comebackers more or less prone to underperform than a stalker or a closer? Again, no data, but my gut tells me that frontrunners are more likely to “be short” than others.

Once we finish this thread, I will go back and capture everyone’s comments on false favorites and publish them.

Posted by: Steve T. on June 19, 2009 at 01:12 PM

---

-->

PGM Handicappers School

Arlington 10th, off the turf, with the 2,3,5 scratched.
They may get the boomers and light show this PM, but the poly will stand up, so:

No reason to toss out this favorite, the Hardy filly #1 Laureldean Gale runs on any surface, is 3rd off the layoff, works on poly, and goes today with Cambell up.
The LS Empire Maker filly #7 Fighter Wing is intriguing, but a weak jockey, is 2nd off, and works good.
#9 Woodford Girl has the Calder jock up/Wilkes trained, can go on poly.
#10 hard-luck Elke Tish Slew improved her luck with the improvement to the 7th post, is 3rd off the layoff, has Graham to replace Cambell, who went to the favorite.

Wager: $20 W/P on #1
$10 Exacta: 1 w. 7,9,10
$ 5 Exacta: 7,9,10 w. 1
$ 1 Trifecta: 1,9/1,9/7,10
$ 1 Trifecta: 1,7/1,7/9.10
$ 2 W/$5 P on #7 LS saver.

Posted by: Keith L. on June 19, 2009 at 01:28 PM

---

-->

**HandiSchool, Race 10 Revised**

It's a dark and stormy day in Chicago. We're off the turf (a win for Stephen Taylor) as #'s 2, 3, and 5 scratch out. The race is off the turf, so it will be 1 1/16 miles around two turns.

Since my picks defected....Now what?

I scratch into #s 1, 8, and 10. I'll break out the show bet is this race now becomes a crapshoot.

WAGERS:

$20 WP #10 ($40)
$20 WP #8 ($40)
$5 W #1 ($5)
$.50 TRI box 1, 8, 10 ($3)
$2 PS #10 ($4)
$2 PS #8 ($4)
$2 PS #1 ($4)

Posted by: PGM on June 19, 2009 at 01:36 PM

---

-->

Tony Kelso,

Well, I assume FATHER TIME put you over the top for the day as you also caught GHANAATI as well. Good call on FATHER TIME. I got suckered into the jock switch again, but i'll be sure not to make that mistake again! lol. Man, if the O'Brien horse holds on in the first I hit the Trifecta. So I settled with a saver reverse instead. As far as the Ward 2 year olds go, I wonder if they got exposed by being headed on the lead or if the horses that lost just didn't take to the turf? On the fence about that one. But they're getting way overplayed in my opinion. In the Coronation I caught the trifecta twice, paying quite nicely for $1 at 181 with the fave on top. Caught the exacta as well. Didn't put much on the next two as they seemed wide open. I put more creedance into the Graded races as opposed to the listed stakes. Those can get tricky and the horses are too closely matched.

Anyway, hope you made out well. You too Johnny Z. One more day to go! What an exceptional week its been!

Posted by: Causeways37 on June 19, 2009 at 02:18 PM

---

-->

Rain

So far, 35 scratches at Belmont. OUT

Posted by: Whackymacky on June 19, 2009 at 02:54 PM

---

-->

All
Like $150 Win #2 Action this Night at Woodbine 5.

Posted by: Whackymacky on June 19, 2009 at 02:55 PM

---

-->

Tinky, were they serving sausage at the Churchill Downs shareholders meeting?
Sorry, I couldn't resist.

I would have like to put my handigambling wager in but other urgent matters were in order.
For those of you who would rather not read another sad story about losing a family pet, please scroll to the next comment. Wednesday morning my 12 year old black cat; Mr. Mojoe was suffering badly due to kidney failure & some other ailments (ingesting weed killer & lawn fertilizer from my neighbors lawn was the culprit). I'm all organic with my growing tactics so I'll spare the diatribe against chemical fertilizers. He skipped his morning meal & spent the day in the rain. I knew it was time to have him put down. When returning from work he was hungry & got a double sized last supper. Afterwords I carried him to his favorite spot on the ottoman & he purred for hours. Somehow he knew the end was near as & I think he knew he was returning a sense of comfort to me as well. Irony of ironies, I returned home at 11:00am
Thursday for his appointment & he hadn't moved from his sleeping spot. Being a cat that never enjoyed riding in a car I knew the stress be tough on him. Well the old boy died after one more meow in the backseat of my car. That's when the emotional freight train leaves the station. I've had six hours sleep the last two nights which only compounds the loss of a friend. This is the first animal of my own I have lost & I now know the grief many of you have stated in earlier board threads.
While I know my contributions to this blog have been negligent at best, I still check in every weekday to read the comments. To all the major contributors (too many names to list, but you know who you are) on this blog I say thank you. I've gleaned more handicapping knowledge here in just a few short years than going to seminars & getting "hot tips" from my gambling addled friends. When I do wager, which is not that often, I feel more secure with the knowledge gained from everyone here (smile).
Having my emotions spilled out to all of you is a great weight off my shoulders. Besides, do you know anybody other than a mental health professional/religious confidant who would to sit & listen to an emotionally somber story? Time heals all wounds & I'll recover soon enough. Rip little buddy, rip.

Posted by: hairy on June 19, 2009 at 02:57 PM

---

-->

Wow

Never got the bet in. Saved $. Just got in from a crazy 3 year old b-day party. Good job with the win on the HG 138. Have large coffee in hand and ready to made some $ today. Who do you like today? Whackymacky OUT

Posted by: Whackymacky on June 19, 2009 at 03:01 PM

---

-->

The False Favorite Dilemma.

Yesterday I posted three favorites in the late P4 that I felt had major holes in their form. Always Auditioning, Get Funky, and All Money No Love. All three went off at 3/1 or below. All three never threatened. All three finished off the board. Pretty nifty, eh? Uh, not really. I did have Sky Cape who made a nice belated move but was never going to catch Delta Storm. How I failed to play a contentious Mitchell comebacker with a stratospheric jock upgrade from Gryder to Rosario still weighs on me. Bottom line, you still have to finger the winner.

*

Winners rely on the jock not blowing their opportunities as they appear, which is precisely what Solis did on Andalacia in yesterday's fifth. Alex got her into great position on the backstretch when he was in the clear behind the leading foursome and two lengths ahead of the trailers, which included the horse to beat, Hameildaeme. The first flight had the inside four lanes covered but our boy Alex obliviously positioned himself directly behind them as the trailers cruised up on the outside, thereby boxing our hero in. Sorenson, on Hameildaeme, sailed by while Solis waited for room. Alex had two lengths on Sorenson on the backside but managed to turn that into a two length deficit by the time he extricated himself in the stretch. He embittered the loss (for me) by rallying to lose by a head. The horse was an open secret by opening at 2/1 off a 12/1 ML and went off at 4/1. If you are full of run you don't get cute and try to cut corners, you stay in the clear and go OUTSIDE.

*

Molesap,

I LOVE Stand Tall (R6) tonight. He is an 8/1 single for me. I also project Sadler's 0/4 turf import (R7) as a single, even though he has beaten only one horse out of 40 on the weeds. Royal Fortune (R3) is a chalk single as well.

On the false favorite front,
Position A (R7) and Yankee Visionary (R4) will not be on my tickets.

*

FYI, I come and go on this blog as I like to take breaks to keep mentally fresh. So if give me a shout out and I don't respond it's not a slight. I became aware in the last week that SR Vegas asked a question a while back and was left hanging. So Sharon, it was me, not you. Got it?

*

Hey, has there ever been a discussion about creating a Form Blog syndicate to tackle the P6 carryovers? It would require more than a bit of work and the appointment of a CFO who was trustworthy but there are some obvious candidates here if they were willing. Pay Pal accounts would fund the operation and we could muscle in on the Liviakis turf. If that name is unfamiliar to you he is a So Cal owner who bets his horses AND P6's with both fists.

Posted by: Mathieu on June 19, 2009 at 03:50 PM

---

-->

Hairy, you have my heartfelt best wishes, I am sorry for your profound loss. RIP Mr. Mojoe.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on June 19, 2009 at 04:09 PM

---

-->

Hey Dan,

Big fan of your blog. After seeing Presious Passion come back and win again, it reminded me of one of my all time favorite horses: Great Communicator. It seems like some horses just don't want to get beat. I was hoping you could dig up the PPs of Great Communicator.

Thanks,

Paul K.

Posted by: pkirnos on June 19, 2009 at 05:05 PM

---

-->

Hairy,

I am deeply sorry for the loss of your friend. Though our pets lives are often short, the effect they have on us is profound. There is a reason that research shows that people recovering from a serious illness, heal better and recover more quickly when they have a pet.

Be kind to yourself and give yourself permission to grieve as long as you need to.

Mr. Mojoe must have been a really cool cat to have a name like that! RIP

You'll be in my prayers.

Posted by: Turn Back The Alarm on June 19, 2009 at 05:15 PM

---

-->

Well, they're off the turf but Stormy Ballad got scratched in the 8th anyway-kinda woulda like to see him try the poly at a price.

As for tomorrow, here are some false favorites at Arlington:

In the 3rd (our race) the ML favorite is the Catalano horse Summer Flight-remember that the dynamic duo (Calabrese/Cat) aren't together anymore and while both are doing decent, they aren't the powerhouse they used to be. It would be first turf and will be overbet because of the connections.

In the Purple Violet, I had Pathway fourth when I did the race. If Cumulonible is anywhere close to 6/1-run don't walk to the windows (and I don't bet jocks so this isn't a "borel bet" In fact I wish there were a different rider because I'm afraid he'll drive the price down)

In the Lincoln Heritage I had Love Handles 5th (remember I handicapped the race without ML odds) She did win an allowance at Churchill the end of last year but the horses who beat her each of her last 2 Il. races are both in this race.

In the Springfield-Gambler's Reward is 5/2 coming off a Maiden win? Again, came up 5th when I handicapped the race.

there are 4 money making opportunities at Arlington-this "false favorite" thing could really catch on if we all look to identify them and share with one another (Sure beats arguing back and forth!)

Posted by: Stephen L. Taylor on June 19, 2009 at 05:18 PM

---

-->

Good afternoon, all....

Well, Keith, I may have spoken too soon....today was a tsunami at the Shore! Total washout for this little railbird. I am fortunate to have a life preserver left so unlike a friend, I'm not floating out to Portugal. But what a wild and wooley set of winners, very nice payoffs for them what had 'em.

Hairy, my deepest sympathies on the loss of your animal companion. I know your pain.

Katieattherail

Posted by: Katieattherail on June 19, 2009 at 05:43 PM

---

-->

I think we need a definiton of terms regarding false favorites. In my book both G Funky and All Money NL are a true fit. GF's record indicates he was the dominant So Cal turf sprinter for two years as he was 5/5 until meeting up with CA Flag on a packed course at Oaktree last September. And that was on three tracks at three different distances. The BC run may be excused as something might have gone awry as a long layoff followed but the return against basically high priced claimers was dismal as he was FALLING BACK after a quarter when he is a closer. Yesterday they tried to dress up his chances by replacing Valdivia with Gomez but the problem wasn't handling or tactics, and the only result was a reduction in price. Which added to the dishonesty of his value. To summarize the GF question, all indicators pointed to a significant issue with his condition and a prudent play against.

I have to return for the AMNL breakdown as I have go now.

*

Steve,

Your claiming waiver comment reminded me of missing by 3/4 of a length with Rush with Thunder in a 25k heat at 15/1 only to see him return in a G3 next out and rally for a close 2nd. I WILL spank one of these in the near future.

Posted by: Mathieu on June 19, 2009 at 05:46 PM

---

-->

PGM,

"Since my picks defected....Now what?" My all time low ROI has to be in races that come off the turf and my selections scratch. I generally talk myself into a longshot that is a dead loser. Now I just abstain. Does anyone have any words of wisdom on playing races that come off the turf?

Tinky,

The "leadership" crisis extends far past horse tracks. For some reason we have decided that the terms manager and leader are synonymous. I have seen up close and personal the immense damage done to businesses by "MBA's" who think that every problem can be solved by a calculator in a vacuum.

Hairy,

You have my condolences, the loss of a friend who loves you unconditionally is heartbreaking. I have a 15 year old Australian Shepherd who has been my best friend from the day I got him and now he is starting to get really old (deaf, cataracts, bad joints). I tear up even thinking about the day I will have to make the decision.

Mathieu,

I think that is a great idea - the fly in the ointment is handling taxes if the syndicate wins. You would probably have to set up an LLC to handle it. Any lawyers want to weigh in?

Posted by: Steve T. on June 19, 2009 at 05:52 PM

---

-->

Here are a couple that I have been tracking who are on tonight's card at Hollywood:

Race 2 - #8 Meili (8/1), a top worker

Race 7 - #5 Itshim (3/1), another top worker

If you are looking for a mortgage payer, consider the Medaglio D'Oro filly Mocha D'Oro also in Race 2 (20/1 ML). The top 12 MDO earners are all fillies, including Rachel Alexandra, Gabby's Golden Gal, C.S. Silk, Tasty Temptation, Payton Road, Retraceable and Ameribelle.

Posted by: Steve T. on June 19, 2009 at 06:12 PM

---

-->

VAN SAVANT
CONGRATULATIONS.GOOD JOB ON A TOUGH RACE.

Posted by: garym on June 19, 2009 at 06:35 PM

---

-->

rip to mr. mojoe, and you have my heartfelt sympathies Hairy.

lost my favorite cat of all time a couple months ago - he was a wanderin boy, would often go off for a week or ten days, sometimes would return bearing gifts, sometimes with holes in his neck or pneumonia...

he was the sweetest critter I ever knew, was feral for the first 3 years of his life, indoor cat for the next 2, then was a man about town for the last 4 or so, coming and going as he pleased.

I like to think he's still out there wooing the ladies somewhere, (it's odd when they go out and just don't come back), but it sure is tough when they go in your arms.

pe

Posted by: p ensign on June 19, 2009 at 06:38 PM

---

-->

All

What the H*LL was that in the 8th at Belmont? Those 2 Jock's should never ride again. This is not Los Al.OUT

Posted by: Whackymacky on June 19, 2009 at 06:44 PM

---

-->

I have republished the top works spreadsheet, it is at:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rSPpSk6X1TSKH_DZ6QyqK2A

Posted by: Steve T. on June 19, 2009 at 06:54 PM

---

-->

Hairy,

My condolences on your loss.

Many of us on this blog, myself included, have suffered a similar loss; Thus making this a great forum to help ease your burden.

I only hope with each passing day that your sorrow will disapate and that you will only be left with joyful memories of your beloved pet that warm your heart and bring a smile to your face.

Be well.

bobc

Posted by: bobc on June 19, 2009 at 07:37 PM

---

-->

West Coasters:
Sometimes you can spot them from as far away as the "right" coast. If you haven't had enough of cheap NW2X claimers ($16-14K), than this one's for you!

Hollywood 6th Race tonight:

#4 Lunch Time, 4 yo g. by Ride the Rails-Cryptoclearance-Fappiano/Mr. Prospector out of Dixieland Band mare high weighted at 124 goes for Morey with Rosario up in this wide open event. ML 8-1/could go higher!
Won't lift the mortgage, but get brave and it may make a car payment?
(Who says you can't use pedigree handicapping in claimers?)!

Posted by: Keith L. on June 19, 2009 at 07:38 PM

---

-->

Laura:
Are you handicapping in Chat tonight? Will check in after 8:00pm to see what's up.

Posted by: Keith L. on June 19, 2009 at 07:39 PM

---

-->

Dan:

Could you get us the winning post position table for sprints at Charlestown? Looking at tomorrow night's stakes.

Thanks.

Posted by: James Mc. on June 19, 2009 at 08:03 PM

---

-->

Hairy,
I'm sorry to read about Mr. Mojoe. Loosing a family member is so hard, especially the ones who never complain and are always there for you. You have my sympathies and I know your pain.

Laura

Posted by: Laura on June 19, 2009 at 08:32 PM

---

-->

PGM HandiSchool, Race 10:

Keith snuffed out the longshot upsetter of the getaway race at Arlington, getting $62.80 off the $7 saver.

I stayed on the Jara horse and got $60.80 for my efforts.

Beats a donut anyday. I'll accept a home loss as I had to spend $22 for my work.

Steve T.,

It may be 20/20 hindsight, but preparedness is what saved me in this race. In this case, since AP is my (and S. Taylor's and others') "home" track, I was aware of local weather and knew that since the turf was yielding on Thursday, it would be yielding or soft today (AP turf is slow to dry), so I played it as such. I had a backup plan should be it off-the-turf as we've been in a rainy season this June.

The issue for me was that it went off the turf AND the backup horse scratched; i.e. the plan couldn't be executed. And I had to pick cold as my form and I were separated. But the outcome turned out decently.

The preparedness--knowing it was wet and could be off the turf--can apply to any circuit. In SoCal rainy season (HOL autumn, SA winter), it can help to handicap the race for the grass then to re-handicap the race in case of a surface switch. For me, I did the race twice: once for non-firm turf and once for poly. Sometimes the picks match one-to-one, sometimes not. But it can help when the rain clouds are abound.

Abstaining is good as well, especially since you think vertically. But since I appear to think horizontally (I am getting a high marks in W/P class but an "F minus minus" in Vertical Exotics 101) then taking the race sometimes is beyond your control, and double handicapping is in play.

Posted by: PGM on June 19, 2009 at 09:03 PM

---

-->

Another reason to drop the house on drug violators. What if the horse was given a dose in his last race but the barn backs off on the next race as the player wagers on him w/o the juice. I believe this happened to me on Razor Cut, whose trainer, James Barnes, was cited for an overage on RC's May 8th effort in which he finished a close 2nd. RC didn't even come close to repeating that performance next out.

Dan,

Do you think this is even on the radar of the powers that be?

Posted by: Mathieu on June 19, 2009 at 09:14 PM

---

-->

PGM:
Wonder where we are schooling tomorrow; hope its one of the Colonial stakes.

Colonial players: Grass was rated Good today (dirt fast), and the times got better as the short day went on! Bet we have a very fair Turf course tomorrow for the All Along and Colonial Cup!

Posted by: Keith L. on June 19, 2009 at 09:22 PM

---

-->

Philadelphia Players and Angle Junkies:

Late Double (8th and 9th) at Philly tomorrow offers up one of my favorite angles: the Trainer/Jockey combo DD, wherein same trainer uses same jockey on entries in each half of the Daily Double.
Theory: they have something riding on it themselves.

8th: #4 Risque's Dear with F. Lynch up on Randy Allen's 5 yo mare. ML; 8-1. Alw 41K NW1X (conditional).
9th: #8 Western Mystery with F. Lynch up on Randy Allen's 3 yo g. ML; 8-1. MdCl 12.5K-10.5K.

The former has been moving up from the near cellar/record of 22: 3-3-3, all that 3-3-3 came at Phily,and 3-2-2 of it this year (the best record of all entries for 2009 year, purses included).

The latter lives up to his name. Record; 3: M-0-0, 3 runs in MdCl 8K's at GG, showing some fair behind the pace speed early in 1 mile events. Last raced GG 5/25/09, and arrives in this event without courtesy of workout showing locally.
The kicker for me is the pedigree for both: Risque's Dear is by Stormy Atlantic (Storm Cat) out of a Grindstone mare, PA bred/Western Mystery is by Western Verse(Gone West) out of a Cryptoclearance mare, CAL bred.
Hit em light, or hit em hard,or pass them up: your choice!

Posted by: Keith L. on June 19, 2009 at 09:52 PM

---

-->

P.S. On the above, Randy Allen is .19% wins at Philly/F. Lynch is .17% wins at Philly.

Posted by: Keith L. on June 19, 2009 at 09:53 PM

---

-->

Steve T and Mathieu:

Love the idea to attack the pic6, but it is more complicated than that.....how much to invest on which carryover??.....who has final say on picks??...etc.

Tinky and others:

I am certainly not the first to come to the defense of CD management (or any other track management lately), but I do believe in this case the CEO is right. I believe it is kind of like some industries in this country who are trying to compete with foreign companies whose governments offer heavy subsidies (think steel and auto industries). Sure, there are many other issues that need to be addressed (both in racing and American industry), but the playing field is simply not level.

Dale

Posted by: Dale on June 19, 2009 at 10:52 PM

---

-->

VAN SAVANT
CONGRATULATIONS.GOOD JOB IN A TOUGH RACE.

Posted by: garym on June 20, 2009 at 12:31 AM

---

-->

Jose Iglesias Garcia,

Sham was one of my first loves. Yes, Secretariat was the superhorse, but Sham was beautiful. I felt so bad for him because he was such a talented horse and gave his all every time. He was the only horse in the Triple Crown to look Secretariat in the eye (if briefly), and probably the second unluckiest horse in recent Triple Crown history, next to Alydar. He was only out of the money twice in 13 starts. If you haven’t already read it, pick up “Sham – In The Shadow Of A Superhorse” by Mary Walsh. Also, considering the age of the material, here’s a good video on You Tube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vF502j5l9rM
It includes newspaper and footage of interviews - good to see Jim McKay again, now THAT was racing coverage!

Sham also had an impeccable pedigree and had inbreeding to the great mare Selene twice through his sire and once through his dam. No, I’ll spare the Thongs/Boxers the rest of the analysis. What I will say to the other pedigree buffs – isn’t it interesting to look back at pedigrees in history and see the greatness, then as we look at modern day pedigrees of current and newly retired horses, wonder if one day their pedigree will be looked upon in the same fashion?

Posted by: Laura on June 20, 2009 at 12:58 AM

---

-->

This should answer the tax question.

92lneck: There's a form you can fill out -- the IRS # escapes me at the moment -- to share gambling proceeds with partners. Ask about it wherever you made the bet. Rather than a single W2G being submitted with all the winnings going to you, you can split it up with your partners. Your alternative is to shoulder the entire liability yourself, in which case you should deduct your expected tax burden before paying your partners.

Posted by steven_crist Jun 19, 2009 6:45:41 PM

*

Dale has a good point. There are a few items to hash out but it can be done. Flexible and open minds would be needed.

*

Nothing like having your 5/1 play of the night(Stand Tall) bust through the gate, get reloaded, take the lead at the 1/8th pole only to get passed with 50 yards to go. Ron Ellis stated a few weeks back on TVG that those horses should be uniformily scratched as he couldn't remember one that went on to win. I have but my heart sunk when he broke through and watched the race fully expecting to lose.

I have to give it to Jennie Green for her handling of Forest Phantom though. Her six week race schedule and ginger works have coaxed consistent top performances from him. And she is a sight in the winner's circle. C Nak received a few slaps on the backside. Jennie, you do know what is good for the goose is good for the gander, right?

Posted by: Mathieu on June 20, 2009 at 02:45 AM

---