December 2009

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HandiGambling 139...it's good to be back

Three days of vacation, and I need a vacation from the vacation. I can't complain, I guess. I stuffed my face, slept to my heart's content, took long walks, played golf, and even went to the Meadowlands to watch the jugheads pace and trot in a circle. With another day off staring me in the face, I came to one realization...I miss the FormBloggers. So, at 1:23 a.m in the morning, I decided to get ready for some HandiGambling. Let's do it to it.

Today's HandiGambling 139 exercise is the eighth race from Hollywood Park, a Cal-bred maiden special weight at five furlongs for two-year-old fillies.

Here are the past performances:

Download HG139

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

Let's scratch NOTWITHSTANDING (#2)

I'm going to go with a new face. BRIANNA MARIE (#9) doesn't have much pedigree, but her works are pretty interesting. Her sire, One Man Army, was only stakes-placed on the grass, and has yet to sire a juvenile debut winner in his short career at stud. The dam was unraced, and Brianna Marie is the first of four foals to make it to the starting gate.
The three workouts between May 15 and May 29 (all at five furlongs) match up with Bruce Headley's six-year-old gelding Ace High Hand, a 93 Beyer performer that hasn't run since October. The June 12 drill, also at five panels, matches up with Headley's four-year-old filly Hard Eight (67 Beyer top in her career).
Headley has three debut winners this year including Woman Warrior, a four-year-old daughter of One Man Army that won a little restricted stake first-out.
Brianna Marie's most recent workout was a bullet half-mile out of the gate in 46 3/5. While the times get all the press, it's probably more important how the workout was accomplished.
Bruno De Julio is one of the most recognizable clockers in the game, and the work he does for the "Today's Racing Digest" publication in Southern California is absolutely first-rate. Anyone interested in workouts should take a look at his daily postings. In the spirit of full disclosure, I also want to mention that Bruno is a friend of mine, and I helped edit his book, "Bruno On Workouts." Bruno confirmed the May 29 company work with Ace High Hand with the comment, "Flashy little filly is all heart. Worked heads up with older mate Ace High Hand--gutty try."

She's 5-1 on the morning line, and I'll put my HandiGambling dollars on her nose to win.

As for the others...

SWISS LOVE (#1) looms the horse to beat, and wouldn't be a surprise. She chased hot fractions last time out, and was previously hammered down to favoritism in a full field of ten in a quarter-mile heat at Santa Anita. Expect Jockey Joe to send hard from the inside, and she will take some catching.

GALLANTLY (#3) was a $4,700 RNA as a yearling, and the June 10 workout matches up with the barn's juvenile gelding Ranger Heartley (came back to finish eighth on June 20 with a 31 Beyer). Although Ranger Heartley returned to race poorly, De Julio was pleased with Gallantly's last two workouts.

June 10: "Caught the eye working with Ranger Hartley. Worked well here."
June 18: "A little green after slow start, was on the wrong lead while pulling
Tyler from the saddle. Went in 24.3, 36.3, 48.3 and 100.3. Finished out
in 114 flat. Green but can definitely run."

DRF's Steve Andersen had this interesting tidbit on trainer Jeff Hebert posted on the homepage on May 28:

"Hebert, 47, had hoped to have a few starters earlier this month, but the stable missed a week of training because of illness shortly after arriving from Louisiana."

SATURN MOON (#4) goes out for the always-dangerous Hollendorfer barn, and seems to be on the improve. She just missed for a $40,000 tag last time out, and came out of that race to work a bullet a week later. She doesn't have much early speed, however, and may be behind the eight ball at this five furlong distance.

MULTIPLYINGTHEHEAT (#5) is by the top California stallion Unusual Heat, but I prefer his progeny as they get older. This filly has been working in steady fashion since late March, but De Julio isn't impressed.

June 21: "Outworked by Bold N Regent-- He hasn't been able to show much finish yet."

GIVEME ONEREASON (#6) has a solid pedigree, but three of her workouts (May 16, May 23, June 5) match up with This Time Baby, a juvenile filly also trained by Walther Solis that finished seventh in her only start.

June 19: "In company and most likely best drill to fate. Went in 24.4 through the lane."

GAMBLING POKERFACE (#7) did nothing in her career debut at 63-1 odds. She drops in with statebreds, but needs plenty of improvement to threaten.

TARO (#8) boasts strong bloodlines as a full sister to stakes-winners Liberian Freighter (juvenile debut winner with 409K in earnings), and Frankelstein (238K). I found six works that matched up with Clifford Sise's juvenile filly Word Association, a runner that finished fifth on June 4 with a 40 Beyer Speed Figure.

April 26: "Worked in company with stable-mates, "Word Association & Safeguard." The trio departed the 3/8 pole in hand and traveled fairly well until the wire to finish all square. Galloped out a strong 1/2 in 48 4/5."

June 16: "Flores on board. This guy has some ability while still a tad green and finishing on wrong lead late."

DOWNHILL DIVA (#10) raced evenly in her debut, and can move forward off that effort. I don't think she'll win this, but she may crash the Super High 5.

SIBERIAN HEART (#11) rallied in her debut to just get necked for the place by Saturn Moon. She wheels back on two weeks rest, but needs to escape the starting stalls a bit better this time.

I'll play $100 Win on Brianna Marie (#9)

Good luck to all.

Back tomorrow with some stakes previews, and a look at a race like no other.

Cheers,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman on June 25, 2009 | Permalink

Keywords:

Comments

Dan,
Welcome back!!!

Uncle Steve,
If you haven't yet had the chance, please read Steve Haskin's wonderful article in Bloodhorse about my fav of all time...Forego. The 60s and 70s were great decades to be race fans. We will never come close to that level of competition in modern day racing - there's just too much money at risk. But always remember how excited we were when we first saw Zenyatta run! I look forward every racing day to finding yet another star...

I just got home from the ER after having another lousy kidney stone ("another" actually means last one 5-7 years ago.) Worst pain in the world, at least for a Blue Boxer, even worse than missing the final leg of a juicy P6.

And speaking of P6's, my minnow BEL P6 went nowhere today. Hit all of 2/6 legs.

Too wired up after passing that stone to go to sleep - on to HandiGambling!! DAN...many thanks for the works summaries!!

Posted by: Alan on June 25, 2009 at 02:53 AM

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Dan,
We seem to be awake doing the same thing... handicapping.

As a fan of Southern California the workouts are always of interest to me. Perhaps it's because California has the most workouts compared to other state. Anyway, reading about the workouts has provided me some big scores and a lot of missed opportunities. I think Bruno is top notch and I use TRD, but also use another service, NationalTurf.com.

I was not going to post initially, but wanted to after reading Bruno's comments for the May 29 work. In the nationalturf report the comment for the team work was "No match for Ace High Hand fading 5 lengths back." It's interesting to compare the two comments. Of course the nationalturf does not list the subsequent works for Brianna Marie, which were in the normal Headley sizzling manner.

With that said, do you think a similar workout report for other states, like New York, is something that needs to be looked into? It definitely helps with first time starters and layoff horses.

Posted by: matt on June 25, 2009 at 03:12 AM

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HG 139

Taro seems to have the best chance of the first time starters. Love her last two works for Sise, who wins with more than his share of firsters. Swiss Love ran fairly well in both her starts, but looks beatable here, especially given I do not really like the rail draw. So those are my top two picks. Of the rest, I hate using first time starters for Stute or Headley as they seem to work their horse extremely quick, so they often seem to be underlays. So I’ll use Giveme Onereason and Multiplyingtheheat as they may be able to run a bit and Siberian Heart may improve enough second time out to land in the exotics.

$1 TRI 8 / 1,5,11 / 1,5,11 = $6
$1 TRI 8 / 1,6,11 / 1,6,11 = $6
$1 TRI 8 / 1,6,5 / 1,6,5 = $6
$2 TRI 8 / 1,6,5,11 / 1,6,5,11 = $24
$1 TRI 8 / 1 / 6,5,11 = $3
$1 TRI 5,6,10,11 / 8 / 1 = $4
$1 SU 8 / 1 / 6,5,11 / 6,5,11 = $6
$1 SU 8 / 1,6,5,11 / 1,6,5,11 / 1,6,5,11 = $24
$1 SU 8 / 1 / 5,6,11 / 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 =$21

Posted by: Molesap on June 25, 2009 at 03:59 AM

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with respect to the Zenyatta racing (or not racing) situation, have a look at Mr.Sheriffs interview with Stev Haskin at the Bloodhorse. he might as well have been Derek Jeter - the answers were basically scripted, and the least informative he could be. additionally, as he reasons that travelling, and racing at 1.25 miles is a whole other animal to have to consider, let's remember that she will travel on a plane (possibly private), and will be treated and fetted better than many human beings ever get treated. it is not as if she is seabiscuit, barnstorming by railroad!
i do not mean to tell the owners "where or when" to race = but i will say that they simply are not sportsmen(and women) for travelling the road they have chosen. it does not matter if she loses, as all horses eventually lose. it does matter that they at least try and race her in the races that will test her abilities, and give her the opportunity to be seen by as many fans as is possible, in as man y different places as is reasonable. i think steve t. and the others here are absolutely correct in saying that it would be great to see her race on the turf, maybe travel overseas, or at least tackle the boys in this country. when will an opportunity like this present itself again ? it is truly a sad day when the best that can be said is "what might have been".

todd

Posted by: todd saunders on June 25, 2009 at 07:26 AM

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Dan, I know what you're saying about vacation. I love Maui but how about a racetrack to make it perfect?

HG 139:

I've been pretty far off on my last few tries--usually it's a matter of right horses--wrong order. Maybe simplification would be best.

Top Contenders:

1-Swiss Love--Sprinter-bred on both sides and back in Cal-company--hard to ignore.

4-Saturn Moon--Back in 14 days with a best of 24 bullet in between--gets fellow statebreds at MSW level--Joe chooses #1?

8-Taro--Cal. sire deluxe, solid string of works (last 2 maybe her best?), trainer very respectable with firsters, lasix in debut; lots to like.

11-Siberian Heart--Better start keeps her closer--just a neck off the 4 last out--solid Cal connections

Outsiders with a shot:

10--half to the 1--figures to improve off last
9--Love the J/T combo and adore the gate work
3--Last 3 works encouraging--again, with gate work as last prep it sends a message

The Wager:

$40 win on 8
$5 EX Boxes 8 w/1,4,11($30)
$1 Tri Key 8/1,4,11,10,9,3($30)

Good Luck and Good Racing

Posted by: meadowlake59 on June 25, 2009 at 07:27 AM

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Normally I don't play maiden races unless forced to in a handicapping contest, as part of a multi race bet or if the majority of entrants have multiple races in their pp's where I can make a logical "attempt" to handicap the race. This race has none of the above but here goes. The "1" "appears" to be the speed of the race (unless one of the five firsters surprises), has the rail position and "should" wire this field. I will key the "1" over the field for varying amounts. I use the "4" and the "11" because the both ran good in their maiden voyages, the five firsters because their ability (or lack of) is "unknown" and the "7" and "10" because "any" horse can get lucky.

$40 Ex 1/4
$20 Ex 1/11
$8 Ex 1/3*5*6
$5 Ex 1/8*9
$3 Ex 1/7*10

Disclaimer: This is a Handigambling wager only. I make these wagers with the full knowledge that "anything" can happen in a maiden race and I risk losing my entire Handigambling bankroll. It is not advised to wager on maiden races because it is usually more guesswork than handicapping. Do not try this at home, with your bookie, in OTB or at the track. I hold blameless Dan Illmam, DRF, my Handigambling blog partners or anyone else for these wagers. I will not sue them, their families, friends, pets (specifically horses) or anyone they have ever known or meet in the future.

Posted by: Wright Stuff on June 25, 2009 at 07:27 AM

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HG: Thanks for the commentary, Dan, otherwise this race would have been even more confounding than it already is! I am going to wager on #11--Stute stepping him up a notch in his second start, and maybe is there to pick up the pieces at the end.
$5 exacta box: 11/All = $90; $10 win: 11.

Posted by: e_s on June 25, 2009 at 07:43 AM

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Dan –

Meadowlands? That's odd, as a fairly reliable source was said to have seen you in Buenos Aires...

Posted by: tinky on June 25, 2009 at 08:41 AM

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The one looks like she has speed but......

All supers

$1 = 4 with 1 with all with all

.40 = 1 with 1 with all with all

.10 = 3,5,6 with 1 with all with all

$1 = 1 with 3,5,6,8 with 4 with 11

.20 = 1 with 4 with 3,5,6,8 with 11

Posted by: NJ Lady on June 25, 2009 at 08:50 AM

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HandiGambling 139 :

I like # 8 Taro in this spot. She has the longest and fastest gate work on the page on May 24th at Santa Anita. An angle I have a lot of success with.

$100 win on #8 Taro

Posted by: BLS2063 on June 25, 2009 at 09:00 AM

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Like Swiss Love's (#1) last two even though she appears to fade.

Saturn Moon (#4) and Brianna Marie (#9) both sport nice trainer returns for mdspwt and I like the bullet works despite Saturn not being able to get the job done as a likely underlay in her first 4.

$25 Ex: 1,4,9 / 1,4

Posted by: funkygreen on June 25, 2009 at 09:09 AM

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#4 saturn moon has good works, and hollendorfer and 2 year olds fit well. close at the wire with #1 swiss love winning by a neck. 50$ to win on #1 and a 50$ exacta #1 with #4.

Posted by: unclejoe on June 25, 2009 at 09:18 AM

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hg 139
25 ex key 8/1-3

Posted by: jerrry on June 25, 2009 at 09:21 AM

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HG 139

When it comes to 2-year olds, I go with horses who have been working at today's distance or longer regularly.

Taro's last two 5F works were both in under a minute.

$100 Win #8

Posted by: baltimore_brian on June 25, 2009 at 09:22 AM

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HG 139
I love handicapping and watching young first time starters, but almost never can get one right. In this race both the 8 and the 9 look well-meant and ready to roll, but 5 to 1 doesn't entice enough. We all know that Koriner trains for speed, and from the one hole Talamo just has to go immediately-I think he will. Third out for Swiss Love looks really good to me. Walter Solis is terrific with babies, and 20 to 1 on the 6-Giveme Onereason-is just too good to ignore (probably a dream, but 10 or 12 to 1 is ok too). I think Swiss Love is the most likely winner, and at maybe 2 to 1 is a decent play. The Bet_
$34 WP on Swiss Love (#1)
$16 Win on Giveme Onereason (#6)
$8 exacta box 1 and 6

Good luck to all.

Posted by: blackstone on June 25, 2009 at 09:44 AM

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HG139 - (#4) Saturn Moon's move through traffic, in last, was as visually impressive as I have seen at Hollywood. Improving every race and ready to score. With first timers not having worked over the cushion, will go with experience. $20 Ex Box (#4) Saturn Moon - (#1) Swiss Love. $60 Win (#4) Saturn Moon

Posted by: Ed on June 25, 2009 at 09:44 AM

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handy works...sires...good with firsters.......$4 Trifecta Key/Box 5 with 1,8,9,11 / 8 with 1,5,9,11 / $2 Exacta 1-5

Posted by: Gary Peacock on June 25, 2009 at 09:48 AM

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handi gamble is as follows:
$4 tri Key #8 over 1,3,6,8,10/
1,3,6,8,10 =$80
$20 win #8 =$20

Posted by: derbyfritz on June 25, 2009 at 10:07 AM

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Good morning, all....

Welcome back, Dan, we missed you too!

Meet Up at Monmouth for Saturday - fuggedaboud mowing the lawn and Father's Day was LAST weekend!

TBTA and I will be at Monmouth on Saturday, hanging out by the paddock, clubhouse side, and would be glad to meet any other NJ IllmanBloggers who care to enjoy one of the rare dry,sunny days this month with like-minded racing fans.

I'm wearing a hard-to-miss purple t-shirt that says "Katherine the Great" on the front, and TBTA is also in purple, red, khaki tunic.

Or just ask any middle aged woman oth there if she's a Blue Thong - NOT!

My cell phone is 607-343-3981 if you really can't find us.

Hope to meet some of our Blog Buddies on Saturday at the Shore.

Good luck all!

Katieattherail

Posted by: Katieattherail on June 25, 2009 at 10:13 AM

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HG139

Welcome back, Dan! Good luck with that vacation from your vacation. Thank you for the extra analysis on this race. I agree that Bruno does fine work. He usually is the anchor guest on a morning radio show. If that show is available over the web, maybe you can give out the URL so the rest of the nation can tune in.

I narrowed the field down to 3 horses... 1, 4, 8. #1 seems to have ample speed to utilize the rail draw, has consistently worked well at HOL, and Talamo abandons #4 to ride here for his main trainer. #4 lacks speed, is the only horse cutting back in distance, shows an improved work since last raced (maybe more speed?), and Hollendorfer (who is also the owner) places in a Straight cal-bred maiden (rather than open claimer) so as not to risk losing her via the claim. #8 is well-bred, as you point out, has quick 5F drills (albeit at SA) and Sise is and impressive 22% 1st out.

I'm a sucker for breeding an trainer stats, and normally would play #8. #1 is the deserved favorite, can wire the field, but 5/2 odds is not attractive in this contest setting. This horse has faded at shorter distances, and its 5F work is not as impressive as its 4F works. Maybe she's not yet ready for 5F.

$100W4. I like the confidence Hollendorfer shows, the cut back, the improving work, and the fact that this animal will be moving strongest late.

Posted by: rr on June 25, 2009 at 10:25 AM

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HG139

#1 Swiss Love - Drops to state bred maidens, shows solid works after last race. Could take them gate to wire.

#8 Taro - Sise is 22% with firsters. Has been working steadily since March and has picked up the pace in the last couple of works.

#9 Brianna Marie - Also shows a steady work pattern with quicker times lately. Could come out running.

Wager:

$5 Ex Box - 1/8/9 = $30

$40 Ex - 1/9 = $40

$30 Ex - 1/8 = $30

Good luck to all.

Posted by: Mike Romeo on June 25, 2009 at 11:16 AM

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In the money finishes.

Hehasnosay -- is entered to run on June 25, 2009 at BELMONT PARK.
Race: 3 Distance: One Mile Surface: Dirt Age: 3 – Colt
Race Type: Allowance Optional Claiming Purse: $ 46,000
Jockey: Ramon A. Dominguez Trainer: Steve Klesaris
Last Raced: 05/25/2009 at MONMOUTH PARK in Race 9
Finish Position: 9th

Comments: Raced forwardly placed early weakened on far turn finishing out of the money in turf Stakes. Lacked speed hugged the rail and rallied finishing second in Stakes in. Runs 3rd in Stakes.

Sapphire Sky -- is entered to run on June 25, 2009 at BELMONT PARK.
Sabellina S.
Race: 8 Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles Surface: Turf Age: 3 – Filly
Race Type: Stakes Purse: $ 65,000
Jockey: John R. Velazquez Trainer: David G. Donk
Last Raced: 05/30/2009 at BELMONT PARK in Race 9
Finish Position: 7th

Comments: Has won with a Beyer of 95 or higher.

Axel Foley -- is entered to run on June 25, 2009 at HOLLYWOOD PARK.
Race: 7 Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles Surface: All Weather Track Age: 3 – Colt Race Type: Allowance Purse: $ 50,000
Jockey: Tyler Baze Trainer: Doug F. O'Neill
Last Raced: 04/25/2009 at AQUEDUCT in Race 8
Finish Position: 6th

Comments: w/o 1.11:80 Failed to mount a rally wide finishing out of the money in race against older rivals Allw. Raced against older rivals finishing third in Allw. In Stakes trails finishes out of money.

J P Jammer – is entered to run on June 25, 2009 at HOLLYWOOD PARK.
Race: 7 Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles Surface: All Weather Track Age: 3 – Colt Race Type: Allowance Purse: $ 50,000
Jockey: Alex O. Solis Trainer: Rafael Becerra
Last Raced: 05/24/2009 at HOLLYWOOD PARK in Race 1
Finish Position: 4th

Comments: Stalked the pace into stretch edged late finishing out of the money in Allw. Chased came out in stretch finishing third in Stakes. Stalked the leader blocked surged closed ground finishing third in Allw. Against older horse in Allw rallied for 2nd.

Posted by: TurfRuler on June 25, 2009 at 11:20 AM

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I would agree that if I played a new shooter, it would be the Headley firster, but she doesn't draw all that well for the distance, and I'd be comfortable playing Koriner/Talamo one more time, considering her speed and the rail draw. I think she is legitimate chalk in this maiden event.

The Play: $50 win Swiss Love; $25 exacta box Swiss Love/Brianna Marie

Posted by: Mitch on June 25, 2009 at 11:21 AM

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HG 139

Basic: 1- Wide post notwithstanding, #11 Siberian Heart owns field-competitive 1st-out Beyer, yes against cheaper, but broke slow and had worked well into race; 2- #1 Swiss Love may burn speed to flee rail/may face other speed; 3- toss firsters; 4- owner/trainer likely spots for legitimate win chance.

$5 EXA 11/1,3,4,6,8,9
$35 WIN/PLACE 11

Posted by: Adam K. on June 25, 2009 at 11:22 AM

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Handigambling 139:

At first look at this race, 5 panel sprint for Cal bred filly 2 yos, my pedigree analysis said to go with the Red Bullet-Deposit Ticket mare Feb foaled filly #6 Giveme Onereason (ML 20-1), offering by Walther Solis, with Valdiva up for a first try. Works, while not spectacular, are solid.
Mindful, however, of the worth of experience with this sort, I'll have to put most of my wager's weight on the Patricia Harrington charge,
#10 Downhill Diva (ML 15-1),, also well bred for sprints, being a Swiss Yodler out of a Snow Chief mare. This filly raced evenly in her start this month, shows a sold work record, and can "turn it all around" for us today at a price.
Chalk probable #1 Swiss Love (ML 5-2) (also by Swiss Yodler)will be firing on the rail, and could take them all the way, past hangs notwithstanding with "Jolting Joe Talamo" returning up.
#4 Saturn Moon,(ML 4-1) the Hollondorfer filly with Nakatani riding (I like him on a filly) should be running late again, with that 6/18 bullet work looking mighty handy.
And Dan's choice #9 Briaana Marie (ML 5-1) has the works, the connections (M. Smith, Bruce Headley) to make it happen first out, if a little light in the pedigree department. I'll take her for the bottom rung in trifectas only though.

Wager:
$10 W/P/S on #10 (Downhill Diva)
$ 6 W/P/S on # 6 (Giveme Onereason)
$ 4 Quinella Box: #1,#4,#10
$ 4 Quinella Box: #1,#6,#10
$ 2 Quinella Box: #4,#6,#10
$ 1 Tri: 1,10/1,10/4,6,9
$ 1 Tri: 1,6/1,6/4,9,10
$ 1 Tri: 1,4/1,4/6,9,10
$ 1 Super: 6,10/6,10/1,4/1,4

$30/18/12/12/6/6/6/6/4=$100

Posted by: Keith L. on June 25, 2009 at 11:30 AM

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Taro looks the best here by a bit. Let's do supers.

70 cent Sfca Key: 8/1,3,4,9,11
20 cent Sfca P/W: 8/1,3,4,9,11/ALL/ALL

Posted by: El Angelo on June 25, 2009 at 11:33 AM

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HG139:

I think the firsters will be ready to roll first out (8,9) as they come from barns that know how to get em' ready. Tough to ignore the rail horse as that was a pretty live race she comes out of. I'll throw in Hollendorfer's horse as the bullet after the last one attracts and should be coming late.

$10 EXB 1,8,9
$10 TRI 8/1,9/1,4,9

Looks like we have the late double available at HOL for free today. Hopefully I can find a single in the first leg.

Causeways37

Posted by: Causeways37 on June 25, 2009 at 11:46 AM

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Referring back to the previous blogs comments regarding the future of racing check equidaily.com for the articles by Bill Finley which basically address the feelings being expressed here. However they were written 13 years ago and are still relevant today. As much as things change they stay the same.

mpm101

Posted by: mpm101 on June 25, 2009 at 12:00 PM

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HG 139

I am liking the 11 (Siberian Heart). Closed a lot of ground in her initial start and with a better start and a little improvement I think she runs them down from her outside post. The 1 takes the drop into the claiming ranks and has shown good speed in both her tries. I also like the 4 who finished well in her first try. Of the firsters, I think the 3 has as good a chance as any off her decent works. So my bet will be:
$70 win #11 ($70)
$10 ex 11/1,3,4 ($30)
Good luck to all !!!

Posted by: Dick W on June 25, 2009 at 12:01 PM

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HG 139 @ Hollywood 8th

$1 tri box 1 4 8 9 11 $60.00
$1 super 1 8/ 1 8 9/ 1 4 8 9 11/ 1 4 6 8 9 11 $36.00
$4 exacta 1 8 $ 4.00

The 1 is back with statebred or sired and should be in good position to win as Talamo chooses this one J/T hits at 26% at Hollywood. Also like #8 work patterns and Flores can get out of gate quickly. Cheers!

Posted by: Dave K on June 25, 2009 at 12:23 PM

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HG 139
I'll go with a $50.00 exacta box. 11 and the 4 horse. I like the work from the 4 and I'll take Uncle Steve's advice on the 11.

Posted by: longwaytomay on June 25, 2009 at 12:34 PM

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Tinky,
LOL!!!

HG139: "BABES IN HOLLYWOOD"
THE FIELD:
#1 Swiss Love (ML:5/2) -> 3rd last out to track record performance, 2ndplace finisher won next out, seemed to be lugging in at the start in both races and now gets the rail?
#3 Gallantly (ML:8/1) -> FTS; unsold at BARSEP08; as Dan notes, DeJulio impressed with works; Herbert 1/8 with 2yo FTS (winner had similar bullet works prior to FTS)
#4 Saturn Moon(ML:4/1) -> Hollendorfer homebred; MC->MSW after closing 2nd at 5.5f after hop at top of stretch (front end bias that day); Talamo stays with Swiss Love but gets Nakatani instead (trainer jockey combo 5-2-1-1 this meeting); bullet work last week.
#5 Multiplyingtheheat (ML:20/1) -> FTS homebred for Melvin Stute; Stute 5/58 with 2yo FTSs (never won with a homebred 2yo); 3 full sibs together 35-2-6-2 with total earnings $98K.
#6 Giveme Onereason (ML:20/1) -> Solis 5/57 with 2yo FTS, although 4 of them at 2f (1/36 if >2f); Red Bullet 17% FTS.
#7 Gambling Pokerface (ML:20/1) -> ran like a 63/1 shot 1stout; $2K sale yet running in msw, likely will need MC ranks.
#8 Taro (ML:5/1) -> Wygood FTS homebred for Sise; nice pedigree/sibs; 5 consec 5f works; would be no surprise.
#9 Brianna Marie (ML:5/1) -> the "Longshot Dan" special; Headley homebred; nice works as per DeJulio; Headley 0/9 with 2yo FTSs (no entries since 7/7/07); no Lasix; may be overbet based on works/Dan's recommendation?
#10 Downhill Diva (ML:15/1) -> 2ndTS after wide trip from outside and gets outside again; Patricia Harrington 1/9 with maiden 2ndTS (the winner being...THOR'S ECHO...who is out of HS to dam); perhaps underneath.
#11 Siberian Heat (ML:5/1) -> also moves up from MC ranks; 3rd in same 5.5f race as Saturn Moon after bad start->rail ride->wide stretch move (front end bias that day); Gary Stute 3/31 with maiden 2ndTS (0/20 if 2yo).
THE WAGER:
Potential winners = #4 Saturn Moon, #8 Taro, #9 Brianna Marie.
Underneath (for supers) = #1 Swiss Love, #2 Gallantly, # 10 Downhill Diva, #11 Siberian Heat.
Will Key "Potentials Winners" on top and in at least one other position.
$0.30SUPER #4,8,9/4,8,9/1,2,4,8,9,10,11/1,2,4,8,9,10,11 = $36
$0.30SUPER #4,8,9/1,2,4,8,9,10,11/4,8,9/1,2,4,8,9,10,11 = $36
$0.20SUPER #4,8,9/1,2,4,8,9,10,11/1,2,4,8,9,10,11/4,8,9 = $24
$4 TIP = $4
$100 TOTAL

Good luck to all HandiGamblers!!

Posted by: Alan on June 25, 2009 at 12:35 PM

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I totally understand the "vacation from a vacation" phenomenon. I tend to go hiking/mountaineering in my spare time and come back from my "vacation" exhausted and with various ouchies.

I really appreciate that information on Brianna Marie. I'd pegged her as one with a chance but not a top pick. I'd have watched the race thinking "oh sh*t... I'm about to get beaten by another buzz maiden".

Here are my contenders:
Swiss Love, #1: Not much to fault; third this level last time out with the race's highest last BSF. Connections are decent and Swiss Yodeler is a good win-early sire.
Saturn Moon,#4: Comes out of MCL, but was second, and has an experience edge, so I don't want to leave her out. Hollendorfer trained.
Taro, the 8: Looks like a very well-meant first time starter -- sibling to Liberian Freighter whom I like a lot.
Brianna Marie, the 9: Due to the buzz, am using her instead of Givemeonereason. Nothing wrong with her connections either.

I have decent luck with caveman bets in maiden races, so I'll do this:
$2 trifecta box 1,4,8,9: $48
$2 superfecta box 1,4,8,9: $48
$4 WP on the one I think will go off at longest odds, Saturn Moon.
Total: $100

As far as the whole Rachel/Zenny thing... OK, people can run their horses where they want.

But I think it's really too bad that Zenyatta wouldn't try males. She has beaten the best females -- remember, she humbled Ginger Punch, who was a really tough racehorse. I'd like to see her go into the Breeders' Cup Classic undefeated. I'm hoping that's the plan. With her pedigree, she could probably also handle turf. She would lose nothing by losing a graded stakes against males. At this point, the only way she gets beaten by the mares currently in her division is if she doesn't run her race due to extreme traffic trouble or something going wrong. (knock on wood this does NOT happen)

I'm not as convinced that Rachel Alexandra can't be beaten by some other 3YO filly, because they improve rapidly, but I don't see her losing this weekend unless, again, something unforeseen occurs. I like the plans to run her against males. As far as not running her in the BC, well, she's Jess Jackson's horse and he can do what he likes, but I think his comments about "plastic" make him sound ignorant, I actually don't think the surface was what lost Curlin the BC Classic, and I'm sorry I won't get to see her this fall.

To conclude my long-winded post, Elusive Heat, who was on the DL, has posted a couple of works; does anyone know what's up with Payton D'Oro and California Flag?

Posted by: Kyri on June 25, 2009 at 12:38 PM

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welcome back glad u had a good vacation great race to make money on i like the 1 he has speed and experence also the 9 because off your pick and also mike smith riding so ill do a 50.00 ex box 1/9 good luck every body

Posted by: crazyhorsemike on June 25, 2009 at 12:40 PM

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Hello All

Back for some more action on this cloudy and muggy Thursday here in the Northeast. Had a nice evening last night with my girl up at Woodbine. She had 3 live mounts for the night and came on home with 2 wins. I played 3 wagers of $150 to win on each with a ROI of + $727.50 for the night. I love my Chantal!!. Please put her on Mine That Bird..... Moving onto today. Belmont has been tough with the weather, Woodbine goes at 1pm , fast and furious everywhere else. Will have some live picks today for all. Went to bed at 4am after looking over the forms. Hope that I can help. Whackymacky OUT

Posted by: Whackymacky on June 25, 2009 at 12:41 PM

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Katieattherail and TBTA:

How about a status report on how well you hit em Saturday!
Although it will be well understood if such a posting doesn't arrive until maybe mid week at the earliest, hmm?
Keith

Posted by: Keith L. on June 25, 2009 at 12:42 PM

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Correction to my HG139 post. I stated that the 1 was dropping into the claiming ranks forgetting that this was an MSW. Instead, the 4 and 11 are moving up from claiming 40,000 to MSW. I will not be changing my wager, however. Sorry for posting incorrect information.

Posted by: Dick W on June 25, 2009 at 12:50 PM

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HG 139:

Don't like the ones that have run.

I'll go with the 8 - Taro. Works are OK and Sise is good with firsters.

9 also looks good but I'm concerned with no Lasix.

$50 WP 8.

Posted by: CM on June 25, 2009 at 01:06 PM

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With the scratch of #11 Siberian Heat from HG139, I have revised my wager:
THE WAGER:
Potential winners = #4 Saturn Moon, #8 Taro, #9 Brianna Marie.
Underneath (for supers) = #1 Swiss Love, #2 Gallantly, # 10 Downhill Diva.
Will Key "Potentials Winners" on top and in at least one other position.
$0.70SUPER #4,8,9/4,8,9/1,2,4,8,9,10/1,2,4,8,9,10 = $50.40
$0.40SUPER #4,8,9/1,2,4,8,9,10/4,8,9/1,2,4,8,9,10 = $28.80
$0.20SUPER #4,8,9/1,2,4,8,9,10/1,2,4,8,9,10/4,8,9 = $14.40
$1 EXBX #4,8,9 = $6.00
$0.40 Bazooka Joe Bubble Gum = $0.40
$100 TOTAL

Once again, good luck to all HandiGamblers!!!

Posted by: Alan on June 25, 2009 at 01:35 PM

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HR139

$16 ex key- 8 w / 136911
$1 tri 136911 w/ 8 w /136911

Posted by: peewee on June 25, 2009 at 01:38 PM

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Tinky... now that was funny !!!

Posted by: Jeff Tatus on June 25, 2009 at 01:40 PM

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I prefer second-time starters in these heats. Downhill Diva is only a slight stretch, and she should be at boxcar odds.

Swiss Love is most likely to win, but she will be underlaid. Taro is seemingly the best debutante, and at 5/1, in she goes.

$40 exacta box ... 10/1,8;

$40 win ... 10.

Posted by: vegan on June 25, 2009 at 01:41 PM

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HG 139:

I rise to associate myself with the comments of meadowlake and mike romeo on the 1 and 8. Swiss Love also possesses what one author dubbed "the maiden pattern", which is the horse's 3rd race, including a 2nd or 3rd place finish in the second outing. Speed is king with 2 YO maidens. Swiss breaks into the lead from the rail and then improves her position. Wave goodbye.

Taro shows 2 fast works at today's distance. Sise 22 % with firsters.

Let's keep it simple: $100 cold exacta - Swiss Love over Taro.

Posted by: Zan the Man on June 25, 2009 at 01:50 PM

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Katie & TBTA

I'll be with my Blue Thong friends in spirit, make sure you find a PGH to bet on this weekend, LOL! Have fun & may the Horse be with you!

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on June 25, 2009 at 02:01 PM

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Uncle Steve,

Excellent post on the great racehorses. I wish I could have seen them race.

Here's an interesting look at a topic that has been discussed in much detail - speed and stamina.

I have read and participated in many discussions about speed and stamina in the Thoroughbred. Here is what Burchard Von Oettingen had to say about those topics 100 years ago:

"…We have the interesting judgment of a practical man, who also lived in the times preceding and succeeding the above-mentioned zenith of Thoroughbred breeding. I am speaking of the well-known jockey, John Osborne, born in 1833, who rode his first race in 1846 and his last race in 1892. Osborone says (vide Ashgill & Radcliffe, page 428) : - “The method of training horses in the present day is quite different to what it was when I began. Horses are very much lighter now; they have neither the bone nor the substance that Thoroughbreds had fifty years ago. Of course, in the old times they were sweated a good deal. Heavy cloths were put on them and they were galloped three and four miles in them. That plan has been discontinued for many years. I don’t know that sweating is weakening to a horse. Old John Scott was a great believer in sweating and bleeding. I am certain that the constitution of horses of the present day would not stand such work; the modern breed is neither so robust nor so strong. Formerly it was quite a common thing for horses to run three and four mile heats. If they were subjected to that now they wouldn’t be able to come out of the stable for a month after. …I am fully convinced the constitution of horses of the present day is not as strong as it was forty or fifty years ago. It puzzles me to account for the degeneration in the stoutness of the modern racehorse; really, I cannot point to the cause of it.”

"The well-known Malton trainer, Charles Lund, speaking about this question in the year 1899, expresses himself as follows (Ashgill, page 430) : “Racehorses in the olden days were, on the average, 2 stone heavier than those of the present day. Now, horses like Touchstone and West Australian were, if one might say so, twice the size in substance and power in comparison with the present day racehorse, most of which are light of bone and substance, and comparatively weedy in appearance. Present day trainers have gone in for speed too much, with the result that the great majority of horses are too finely built.” – Horse Breeding In Theory And Practice pages 192-193.

Oettingen, a world-renowned expert about Thorougbreds and breeding, published the preceding in 1909. Oettingen also was the Landstallmeister and Director of the Royal Stud of Trakehnen Germany. He was highly regarded and breeder Federico Tesio studied much of the writing of Oettingen.

Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on June 25, 2009 at 02:01 PM

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Hi Keith,

Sure, we'll do full disclosure on how we fare on Saturday. Don't know if it will hurt or help that I've been 'capping Monmouth for more than a month now for the Survival Contest (yes, I'm still in, but I used my life preserver last weekend).

Good luck HG folks!

Katie

Posted by: Katieattherail on June 25, 2009 at 02:02 PM

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Uncle Steve
I forget how eloquently you write & what a pleasure it is to read. Thanks for the memories of your earlier racing days, sigh...

..and Alan
Glad you are back to your handicapping ways..Sorry to hear about the stone, ouch!

Dan The Man
Welcome back! This motley crew seems to have taken care of the ship just fine, while the captain was away..arr-arrr-arrr!

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on June 25, 2009 at 02:06 PM

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HG 139
Hopefully this takes.

$50 win #1
$10 ex. 1/8,9
$4 ex. 1/6
$5 tri 1/8,9/6,8,9
$1 sup.key 1/6,8,9

Should be $100

Posted by: billg on June 25, 2009 at 02:10 PM

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HG 139
$15 TRI-6,8/6,8/1,4,9=$90
$1 SFC-8,9/8,9/1,4,6/1,3=$10

I like W/O's and Tr. stats for 6 and 8. If they're the place horses, then 1, 4 or 9
should show.

Posted by: Matthew B. on June 25, 2009 at 02:21 PM

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HandiGambling 139;

TARO (#8) is a first time starter for trainer Sise, and has shown some abilities in her morning workouts in preparation for this race. Sise is 22% with these types, and with jockey Flores aboard, I will take a chance here. SWISS LOVE (#1) looks like a pretty decent sort in here, and the move to state-bred company will help. She should be there in the end. SATURN MOON (#4) appears to do her best running late, and while 5 furlongs is probably too short, who knows…

My play;

$25 Exacta, 8w/1, 4 ($50)
$10 Exacta, 1, 4w/8 ($20)
$5 Exacta box, 1, 4 ($10)
$1 Superfecta, 1, 4, 8w/1, 4, 8w/1, 4, 8, 9w/1, 4, 8, 9 ($12)
$8 to Win on the 8 ($8)

That's it. Thanks again Dan. And the FormBloggers missed you as well...

Posted by: Van Savant on June 25, 2009 at 02:28 PM

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HG 139

I rarely bet 2 year old maiden races and this is one I will definitely skip with real money but with my pretend HG dollars, I'll put half on the nose of the #8 horse. In this case, I'll do something I don't do often and that is bet the connections. I'm usually all about the horse first, connections second but since I don't know the horse...And for second, I'll use Dan's horse since I just found out he plays golf too.

$50 win #8
$40 ex 8/9
$10 ex 9/8

Dan, if you're in Chicago anytime soon, bring your sticks. We have some amazing public golf courses in the area.

Posted by: jim tully on June 25, 2009 at 02:50 PM

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Hi Keith L
Here's a quick-short & sweet OLA for the Blue Thongs at Monmouth on Saturday.
(disclaimer, I see there is no P6, but I'll create one anyway...) Races 5-10

She knew in her heart that she was a BLING BLING GIRL, so sighed PRINCESS MADELINE ('Mary' to her friends) as she pushed her blonde hair away from her face. But she had a decsion to make for the weekend. Which would be more FULFILLING to her. A meet up with her Blue Thong SISTER IN THE CITY for a day at the races or would this PLATINUM GIRL go out on a date with her OSCEOLA PRINCE who kept her supplied with all that Bling...Oh, decisions, decisions.

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on June 25, 2009 at 02:55 PM

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HG #139

With 2 yr. olds, I lean heavily on the mare and her history of producing some early speed.....pretty bad bunch here from a breeding standpoint.

The #8 appears ready to run a bit and her mom (while unraced) has had some success getting 2 yr. olds to run...(9 st. 2-1-2).

The #6 is the wildcard....mare won at 2....sprint offspring....underrated Valdivia.....would be more likely at 5.5 or 6f

#1 probably be 9/5 by post....mare not much as a runner or producer...don't like that she lost ground in the stretch last out....awfully tough not to use....hummmm?

#4 should be coming along late, but just for a piece at this short distance.

$50 w. 6
$25 p. 6
$15 ex. 6-8
$10 tri. 6-8-1

Posted by: Matt M. on June 25, 2009 at 02:59 PM

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Calvin
How interesting and revealing...what we say now, was the same thoughts voiced so long ago.
Thanks for the post.

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on June 25, 2009 at 03:07 PM

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HG 139
Hollyrock rc 8
#4 has the experience,switches to Nakatani,has a good drill for this.
#6 from Red Bullet,has some decent enough works.
#8 has some solid works,high FTS trainer %.
#10 Keeps Solis,another Swiss Yodler,2nd start,2nd time L.
There will have to be more then 1 speedster in this race,looking for one that rates or will be running late.

$5 exacta box 4,6,8,10 $60
$2 ex 5,7/4,6,8,10 $16
$1 tri 4,5/6,8,10/1,3,9 $18
$1 tri 3/6,9/1,5,10 $6
total wager $100

Posted by: Tony P on June 25, 2009 at 03:25 PM

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For HG 139 baby race my top picks are Swiss Love, Saturn Moon, Brianna Marie, and Taro. My reasons are obvious to most handicappers. Number 1 has run in the money before and for formbloggers he is trainer by Koriner and ridden by Talamo. Number 2 has raced and is trained by Hollendorfer. Number 9 is trained by Headley and ridden by Smith. Number 8 has consistent and fast works. The X Factor is the Number 5 where by now we all know about Unusual Heat’s surprises. Included in my picks are the ones sired by West Coast leading sires and All Weather Surface leaders. My selections are as follows:

$1 Superfecta 1 // 4-8-9 // 5-6-10 // 5-6-10 = $18

$1 Superfecta 1 // 5-6-10 // 5-6-10 // 4-8-9 = $18

$1 Superfecta 5-6-10 // 1 // 4-8-9 // 4-8-9 = $18

$1 Superfecta 4-8-9 // 1 // 5-6-10 // 5-6-10 = $18

$1 Super H-Five 5-6-10 // 1 // 4-8-9 // 4-8-9 // 4-8-9 = $18

$1 Super H-Five 5 // 1 // 4-8-9 // 4-9 // 6-10 = $8

$1 Super H-Five 1-5 // 4 // 9 // 8 // 6 = $2

Total $100

Posted by: TurfRuler on June 25, 2009 at 03:27 PM

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All

Race 6 Belmont...Bet $600 Win on the 1,1A Entry. Lock!!!!! OUT

Posted by: Whackymacky on June 25, 2009 at 03:37 PM

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HG 139

This is a race where board watching is a major plus, especially the doubles and pick 3 probables. I won't be able to use that angle, as I won't be home, but would not bet "real" dollars on this race without doing so.

#9 Brianna Marie

I like the outside post for her. Good works. Smith will get her out of the gate.

#1 Swiss Love

Talamo jumps to her from the four. 2nd place finisher in last race came back to win.

#8 Taro

Another firster with good works and good connections.

#4 Saturn Moon

Ran like a freight train down the lane in last. Shorter distance might be her undoing.

Wager:

$40 ex 9/ 1 $40

$20 tri 9/ 1/ 8 $20

$10 tri 9/ 8/ 1 $10

$5 super key 9/1,4,8/1,4,8/1,4,8 $30

Alan,

Take care and drink plenty of fluids. Been there done that 3 times, I feel your pain. Last one about 5 years ago. I hope you pass the stone a lot quicker than my horses pass the one's in front of them; otherwise your in for a memorable summer. (smile).

Be well.

bobc

Posted by: bobc on June 25, 2009 at 03:43 PM

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ROTD HOLLYROCK RC7

#1 4th start for Oneil,comes off a 7 place G2 finish keep Rosario.
#2 Jock switch to Smith,comes off the weeds.
#3 Comes off the weeds,1st start after being claimed,gets the blinks today,should improve.
#4 another with blinks added today,gets Gryder in the irons today,could be live.
#5 ships in from GG gets Espinoza,off the bench.
#7 has enough early speed to wire this field,proly the one to beat,gets GO GO today,however is facing winners for the 1st time???
#8 comes off the bench,has good closing style and will proly like the stretch out.
#9 another facing winners for the 1st time,keeps Garcia after playing musical jocks.
#10 has some gate works for this,has not raced since July 08 looking else where.
picks for win only,not sure how I will play the exotics in this one
4,7,9

Posted by: Tony P on June 25, 2009 at 03:46 PM

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Kentucky Senate President David Williams will be on 84WHAS radio tonight from 7 to 9 p.m. to talk about the slots bill that was recently defeated:

http://84whas.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=283307&article=5659110

It should be an interesting show and I'm sure that he will get a lot of calls from angry supporters of the slots bill.

Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on June 25, 2009 at 03:46 PM

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Easy come easy go... #4 ran HUGE. Speed dual cost the entry the race. Bad move! More to follow...

Posted by: Whackymacky on June 25, 2009 at 03:50 PM

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HG 139:
I glanced over the program & then checked the comments only to find out that many here like the same horse; #8. I hate following lemmings but Bertrando is a very good Cal bred sire & he was my lukewarm choice & will stay that way even with the cliff nearby. The others I'm not so sure about so I'll defer to Dan's expertise & go:
$50 exact box 8/9

Posted by: hairy on June 25, 2009 at 03:51 PM

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BSF for Queen's Plate at WBO on 06/21/09?

Thank you in advance.

Posted by: RandyT01 on June 25, 2009 at 03:54 PM

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HG 139:

In Maiden races with several firsters, the trainer stats become even more important. Those, coupled with workouts and pedigree, are all you have to go on.

Of course, experience is helpful to young horses as well, so horses that have had a race or two need to be considered.

With the late vet scratch of #11 Siberian Heart, this leaves me with five contenders.

1 - Swiss Love - Has two races under her girth and decent works post race.

4 - Saturn Moon - The most experienced horse in the race with 4 starts. Has improved as the distances got longer. Jerry Hollendorfer bred, owns and trains this horse and has excellent stats with two year olds. Fast bullet work post race.

6 - Giveme Onereason - Think this is the best of the longshots (20-1) and has plenty of works in preparation for this for another breeder/owner. Could fill out superfecta at a price.

8 - Taro - Like that the Wygod's bred and kept this one. Excellent five furlong works for a trainer with excellent first-start stats.

9 - Brianna Marie - Lots of five furlong works for Headley, who also bred and owns this horse. Great gate work on the 19th.

Since I can't box all five in a Super, I'll leave the 20-1 out of the top slot (and hope he runs 2nd :)

$1 Super box:

1,4,8,9/1,4,6,8,9/1,4,6,8,9/1,4,6,8,9 = $96

$4 to W #8

Annie

Posted by: Annie on June 25, 2009 at 04:00 PM

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Nice post at 2:12AM post Steve T. Lots of passion! I loved me some Sunday Silence and revel in every opportunity to rub EG's followers noses in each defeat he took at the hands of a true great. Of course, great races are what made this sport and the lack of them is what is killing it. Without Easy Goer to contend with, the greatness of Sunday Silence would surely be less recognizable. Easy Goer was a spectacular colt ( even if he was an overhyped Eastern wind bag, lol, Steve T. ) and if not for Sunday Silence would have went down as one of the elite. As it is, Easy Goer, is still thought of as a very good, if not, great horse by many. The fact is, most East coaster's that I know, still think Easy Goer was the better horse, lol. Horse racing has so many nuances and variables that even when you win 3 of 4 races ( like SS over EG ), some still have excuses ( those with the excuses would call them valid reasons ) for Easy Goer's defeats against Sunday Silence. One thing that can't be debated is what would have happened had they met up on the track. Sunday Silence and Easy Goer raced and raced over and over again.

That's the point! Greatness can not be attained by scheduling proficiency. There is no luck or even a lack of competition when is comes to greatness ( The lack of competition is what eliminates many with potential for greatness from true greatness ). Zenyatta can go on for another year or two beyond 2009 and stay undefeated, but, if she never rises and faces the BEST level of competition in her sport, she can never attain true greatness. Greatness can only be earned by facing and beating the best your sport has to offer. Even under those circumstances, fate, can intervene and leave you with little ( in terms of a competitor or competitors ) that will allow you shine and truly be thought of as great. Even Curlin ( top U.S. earner of all-time ), whose connections were very sporting, isn't considered by many to be truly great, because of his competition ( I am in that camp... Curlin = very good, not great ). In fact, I would say to attain true greatness in your given sport, you must defeat greatness.

One of the biggest assets this sport has ( or had ) was it's ability to put together racing cards at beautiful venues with the very best of the best ( the sport has to offer ) facing off. The leadership of this sport used to understand ( all things being equal in sport ) that if you match up the best competitors against eachother, the fans with flock to these races in masses.

The fact is that horse racing in the U.S. is a rogue sport with little to no organization or leadership. Without real leadership, horse racing in the U.S. will spin around and bump into things in the dark like a rudderless ship. Every major sport in the world that is worth its salt has an organizing body and has grown proportionally ( or at the very least have given there sport the best chance at success ). Sports like horse racing and boxing ( which were two of the 4 most popular sports in the U.S. prior to 1950 ), have faded to almost being fringe sports because of the greed at the top. The money on top is unwilling to care about the big picture. All the sports that are considered MAJOR became that way because they eventually had leadership that understood that self sacrifice was the only way they would be able to grow there sport. They understood they had to give up something in order to do what was needed to make their sport mainstream and MAJOR LEAGUE. The men and women at the top of horse racing only care about the NOW and will drain this thing dry and watch it blow away in the wind before they sacrifice for the future of this sport. It is a greedy, self absorbed lot at the top of the horse racing heap and there is no change on the horizon. Frank Stonarch would rather run his company ( and this sport ) into bankruptcy than do what is right by the sport. Unfortunately, most of the rest of the Bluebloods on top are no better.

Posted by: Craig on June 25, 2009 at 04:02 PM

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*Just an idea*
-----------------------------

I don't know if anyone else would like to contribute, but it seems fun to me. I've noticed some bloggers will use all the horses names in a pick-6 sequence and creat a little story. I think there's even a name for it here. I'd like to see if anyone would like to do the same using ANY horses names. I put one together. Here it goes...
----------------------------

A WAR ADMIRAL returned from DUNKIRK and told of a terrible tragedy. A man named KIP DEVILLE was supposedly a relative of King FERDINAND. He tried to come to PRIVATE TERMS with the WAR MONGER who led the Nazi forces. But it would not end well. There was a STRATEGIC MISSION undertaken to surround him and his family. One night on a LONELY HIGHWAY, as they were making a delivery of RUSSIAN LIQUOR, they heard a distant WAR CHANT, like some sort of LOST CODE. Kip's STREET SENSE could figure out the DILEMMA. They were to be victims of a ruthlessly SMART STRIKE. It was the SECOND OF JUNE, and they would soon meet their PRECISE END. Troops opened fire from all directions of the COMPASS. There was but one redeeming and wonderful fact: They would meet death in the same way they had endured life. FOREVER TOGETHER.

Posted by: Calibob on June 25, 2009 at 04:04 PM

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SR Vegas,

Nice OLA!!

Katie & TBTA,

Have a great time you two! And try not to get into too much trouble. Good luck with all your bets, and let us know about your day.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on June 25, 2009 at 04:05 PM

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Katie,
I might be at Monmouth on Saturday. If I go I would love to to say hi to you and TBTA. I will come by and try to find you guys if I go. If not, have fun, Monmouth is a great place to be on the weekend.

Posted by: scianc22 on June 25, 2009 at 04:13 PM

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Dan, welcome back.

I'll go with the proven runner #1 and give the 489 the underneath
40.00 ex 1/8
30.00 1/4
30.00 1/9
I don't expect to win with these bets, but it keeps you sharp and it's the type of race I'd rather be betting with mythical money.

Posted by: Mike on June 25, 2009 at 04:22 PM

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ROTD

Like the 4 although the trainer stats are unimpressive. Has lost to some toughies and should have first run on the 7.
Big drop for the 1.
The 9 has improving synth. numbers. Look to improve more.
The 7 coud be alone on the lead for quite a while.

The bet $40 win #4
$10 ex. 4/1,7,9
A $5 ex saver with 1,7,9/4

$85 on this one.

So far on 3 races I've bet $190 and cashed $170.40 in the race last night.

Welcome home Dan.
Steve T.: Its a distinict pleasure to read your posts. The most recent lamentation on the racing industry is poignant and SPOT ON. Lets keep up the fight for improvement and change.

Posted by: billg on June 25, 2009 at 04:24 PM

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RandyT01:

The DRF website posts recent Stakes Results and Beyers on the left side of the page. Eye of the Leopard got a 92 Beyer.

Posted by: Zan the Man on June 25, 2009 at 04:26 PM

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Hollywood Race 2... #6 $600 Win Easy Money. More Than Ready offspring can get in done. Wins by 4 going away.

Posted by: Whackymacky on June 25, 2009 at 04:30 PM

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Great ride? Take the horse back and rush 6 wide. Another set back. Next.

Posted by: Whackymacky on June 25, 2009 at 04:38 PM

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In many of these two-year-old races, first time starters win if the favorite is vulnerable and the horse has a strong pedigree and comes from a solid 2 y/o barn. I do believe Swiss Love (#1) is somewhat shaky as a favorite, but she is more than capable enough to win this race.

Koriner/Talamo have strong J/T stats and Swiss Love (#1) is exiting a track-record-setting performance by Southern Fireball. Ballistic Sue, the 2nd place finisher in that race, came back to easily wire a Md Sp Wt at 5 1/2f. Swiss Love (#1) is also dropping from straight maidens to cal-bred maidens. Swiss Love (#1) is exiting a productive race, has a strong J/T combination, is dropping in class, and has no real identifiable pace pressure, unless one of the new shooters takes it to her. She’ll sit a good trip under Talamo and should win this comfortably.

The race is for second, and any number of these can finish second. I don't trust Saturn Moon (#4) or Siberian Heart (#11). They're both stepping up in class after closing in the stretch on a horse getting tired at the end. The running line looks better on paper than the actual video. Saturn Moon (#4) is probably the better of the two, but it was Siberian Heart’s (#11) first start so he could improve as well.

But, I don’t trust either of them, so to be safe, I would use a couple of the well-meant firsters in here from solid 2 y/o barns (#6, 8, 9). Given that the race is 5 furlongs, Downhill Diva (#10) also looks playable since she has a race under her belt, but Patricia Harrington's numbers are not inspiring.

To recap, I'd play Swiss Love (#1) on top with any combination of #4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11 to finish 2nd and 3rd.

To make it interesting since it is a fictitious $100, I'm going to play:

$16 Exacta: 1 / 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11
Cost: ($96)

$1 SH5: 1 / 4,10 / 4,10 / 11 / 8,9
Cost ($4)

Posted by: M MORTON on June 25, 2009 at 04:38 PM

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I like the breeding for the 8-Taro So I will take her on top in a 75$ Exacta over the experience Of the #4 Saturn Moon (Hoping she will continue to run 2nd. I will also do the reverse 4-8 for 25$. I these baby races i usually like to take a shot with those that have experience but sometimes a pedigree stands out.

Posted by: tedmur on June 25, 2009 at 04:39 PM

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HG 139:

I tried to narrow down the contenders and I came up with the 3,8 and 9. I'm going to just box them in a trifecta.

$16 tri box 3,8 & 9
$4 to win on #3

Posted by: addc26 on June 25, 2009 at 04:44 PM

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#4 bullet work after race should be ready to roll...

bet..... $100 exacta 4-1

Posted by: pippen0707 on June 25, 2009 at 04:53 PM

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To recap, I'd play Swiss Love (#1) on top with any combination of #4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11 to finish 2nd and 3rd.

To make it interesting since it is a fictitious $100, I'm going to play:

$16 Exacta: 1 / 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11
Cost: ($96)

$1 SH5: 1 / 8,9 / 8,9 / 11 / 4,10
Cost ($4)

Posted by: M MORTON on June 25, 2009 at 04:59 PM

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All

#4 Poited Home in the 3rd

$300WP..

Posted by: Whackymacky on June 25, 2009 at 05:03 PM

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Pointed Home

Posted by: Whackymacky on June 25, 2009 at 05:04 PM

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9th Belmont

#5 Doc n Roll $300 WP

Posted by: Whackymacky on June 25, 2009 at 05:16 PM

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HG139
$8 spf 1/9/4/all $48
$8 spf 9/1/4/all $48
The Jockey's and Trainers work well toether on 1/9

Posted by: Dominic Riccio on June 25, 2009 at 05:17 PM

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I realy don't have a clue about this race as 2 yr-olds are my worst topic. So i went the horse who name i liked the most, The 3. But since i won't get a great price, i decided to play the super high 5 instead.

$3 Sh5 3/all/1/all/10 =$90
$10 win 3

tencentcielo

Posted by: tencentcielo on June 25, 2009 at 05:22 PM

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HG 139

Looks like everyone has scoped this one out.
#8 dam has two 2yo winners from 4 runners
#1 rail, speed pedigree
#3 FTL; synthetic pedigree

$1 tri 8 / 1,3,5,6,7,10 / 1,3,5,6,7,10
$1 tri 8 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,5,6,7,10
$1 tri 8 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,5,6
$1 tri 8 / 1 / ALL
$1 tri 1,3 / 8 / ALL
$4 ex 8 / 1
$2 ex 8 / 3
$4 win 8
$4 place 8

Posted by: TejanoRun on June 25, 2009 at 05:24 PM

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Handi2yofillygambling...

I think the favorite's vulnerable and look to her fading all the way out of it.

$2 TB 4,6,8,9

$2 SB 4,6,8,9

$1 SPW 4,6/4,6/8,9/8,9

Posted by: easygoer on June 25, 2009 at 05:27 PM

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SR Vegas:

Now, you know I'm going to have to look up all those selections to see just how many are PGH qualifiers!
Keith

Posted by: Keith L. on June 25, 2009 at 05:31 PM

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All

4th at Holly... Use the 4 with 5,8 with all in the pick 3. Play it 10 times for $140. Play the #4 300WP Maeve. Getting a lot of 2nd's. OUT

Posted by: Whackymacky on June 25, 2009 at 05:32 PM

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HG 139

Not big on maidens especially babies but here goes.
The 1 should show early speed and unless one of the first time starters go with her (the returning runners have never shown speed) she could have a loose lead.
The 4 has been burning some money so far but ran well in a claimer last out. Moves up slightly as this is a state bred race even if MSW and could be coming late if there is enough pace to close into.
The 7 and 10 did not show much in their initial outings and neither trainer has positive stats for 2YO's
Will go with the first timers who have worked well at the distance and who's trainers seem to be successful with babies, the 6,8 and 9. Also am afraid the 1 could be loose so will include her.

$4 Tri Box 1,6,8,9

mpm101

Posted by: mpm101 on June 25, 2009 at 05:38 PM

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HG 139- Nine Horses after #2 & #11 scratch out..
Seven Cal.-Breds
One Wash.-Bred.
One Kentucky-Bred.
$60 Win, #5-Multiplyingtheheat
$20Ex.Box,"The WOOLWORTH"! =$100
Good Luck All!

Posted by: BombsawayBob Grant on June 25, 2009 at 05:47 PM

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Haven't seen my post for the 139 picks for today so I will re-enter them here...
$15.00 exacta box 1-4-9
$1.00 exacta box 5-6-2
$4.00 triple 9-1-8

Posted by: Joe L on June 25, 2009 at 05:59 PM

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HG139

Will go with the experience in this race. #1 with Talamo and moving back to Cal bred should show speed. Like the long worktab on #6 and sired by Red Bullet.

$75 ex 1-6
$25 ex 1-9

Posted by: Afleet72 on June 25, 2009 at 06:20 PM

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Here's a brief breakdown of the Handigambling race, pedigree wise:

Swiss Love (Swiss Yodeler – Our Mt. of Love, by Mt. Livermore) Sire is 21% lifetime winners. Not much to look at on the dam’s side.

Gallantly (Bartok – Exploit Choice, by Exploit)Dam is a half to a minor stakes winner, not much blacktype in this family.

Saturn Moon (Globalize – Flying Trillia, by Fly so Free) This is sire’s 4th crop and he only has 28 lifetime starters, however 10 of the starters are winners giving him a whopping 36% win rate.

Multiplyingtheheat (Unusual Heat, Multiplemeetings,by General Meeting) Not much blacktype here either, and the UH/General Meeting cross hasn't produced much in the way of winners.

Giveme Onereason (Red Bullet –Silver Deposit by Deposit Tticket) Red Bullet has 13% lifetime winners from 5 crops. Dam was stakes placed.

Gambling Pokerface (Popular - Gamblingsavirtue, by Wall Street Dancer) Sire has only 11 lifetime two year old starters from 4 crops, with 4 winners (13%) His claim to fame was winning the San Miguel Stakes (G-3), his only stakes win in 15 starts. Dam was in the money 20 of 34 starts and stakes placed.

Taro (Bertrando - Anachristina, by Slewpy) Sire gets 11% lifetime two year old winners. Taro is a full to two minor stakes winners. Third dam gave us the G-1 turf winning mare Memories of Silver, fourth & fifth dams are blue hens superior females).

Brianna Marie (One Man Army –Turfiana, by Defensive Play) Obscure sire stands at a sport horse farm and he is a grandson of Roberto. This filly’s fourth dam is Forward Gal, Champion two year old filly of 1970. She also has an RF (Rasmussen Factor, inbreeding to a superior female) to Pocahontas.

Downhill Diva – another Swiss Yodeler out of a Snow Chief mare. Dam’s half sister produced Thor’s Echo, 2006 Champion Sprinter.

I’ll take a $100 Super BOX on the following:
Saturn Moon
Giveme Onereason
Taro
Brianna Marie

Posted by: Laura on June 25, 2009 at 06:26 PM

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Gosh, everyone is hanging around the same horses so I will be the contrarian tonight.

$1 tri 3-5-6 with 1-3-5-6-10 with 1-3-5-6-10

$.80 super 3-5-6 with 1-3-5-6-10 with 1-3-5-6-10 with 1-3-5-6-10

$3.20 tri key 3 with 1 and 10.

I think that is $100!!!

Posted by: Sunday89 on June 25, 2009 at 06:29 PM

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Here's my HG-139:

1. $1 Penta
1/9 w 1/9 w 3,4,8 w 3.4.8 w 3.4.5.6,8,10 $48.00

2. $1 Penta
1/9 w 3,4,8 w 1/9 w 3,4,8 w
3,4,5,6,8,10 $48.00

3. $2 Super
9 w 1 w 4 w 3,8

4. $2 Super
9 w 1 w 3,8 w 4

Logic for proclamation:

I like Dan's connections on the 9's workout tab. The 1 will quit when the 9 ranges up past the turn. I like the 3,4,8 to complete my Super that I extend into the Penta w/the 5,6,10. If the 1 really quits into 3rd, my Penta is better and should put me in the running to win this HG-139.

Posted by: Jeff Tatus on June 25, 2009 at 06:31 PM

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With the scratch of top choice Siberian Heat I'll revise HG 139 as follows:

$.30 SUPER 4,6,9/4,6,9/1,3,4,5,6,7,9/1,3,4,5,6,7,9 $36

$.30 SUPER 4,6,9/1,3,4,5,6,7,9/4,6,9/1,3,4,5,6,7,9 $36

$.20 SUPER 1,3,4,5,6,7,9/4,6,9/1,3,4,5,6,7,9/4,6,9 $24

$1 TRI KEY 4/6,9/1,6,9

ROTD revisions with scratch of Axel Foley:

$10 WPS 3

$30 EX 7/4

$10 EX 7/1,3,8

$5 EX 3/ 7,8

Posted by: cayman01 on June 25, 2009 at 06:44 PM

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Walt's Handigambling

My contest wagers are dictated in part by what others have already done here:

$0.10 Superfecta 7/1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9 ($2.40)
$0.10 Superfecta 1-4-8-9/7/1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9 ($2.40)
$0.10 Superfecta 1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9/7/1-4-8-9 ($2.40)
$0.10 Superfecta 1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9/7 ($2.40)
$0.20 Superfecta 8/1-4-7-9/1-4-7-9/1-4-7-9 ($4.80)
$0.10 Superfecta 8/1-4-9/1-4-9/1-4-9 ($0.60)

$1 Super High Five 4/1-7-8-9/1-7-8-9/1-7-8-9/1-7-8-9 ($24)

$1 Super High Five 1/4-7-8-9/4-7-8-9/4-7-8-9/4-7-8-9 ($24)

$1 Super High Five 7/1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9 ($24)

$5 Win 7 ($5)

$2 Quinella 7/1-4-8-9 ($8)
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Total Wagered: $100

Main reason GAMBLING POKERFACE (#7) is my primary horse outside of the Super High Five is because he is a "Mad Dog," or a 20/20 (20-1 Value Line and 20-1 Morning Line). The horse I really like to win this is SATURN MOON (#4), who is 5-2 on the Value Line and 4-1 on the Morning Line using the method I use.

Posted by: Walt on June 25, 2009 at 06:48 PM

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HG 139:

The 1 should either clear or at least hold his position into the turn, then edge clear at the top of the lane.

Thinking a few first timers will chase and fade, and one of the other two horses with one single start against straight maidens will improve enough to fill out the exacta at a decent price.

The play:

$50 Exacta

1 w/ 7,10

Total: $100

Posted by: Scott on June 25, 2009 at 06:53 PM

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Ray's Handigambling

$1 Super High Five 8/1-4-7-9/1-4-7-9/1-4-7-9/1-4-7-9 ($24)
$1 Super High Five 9/1-4-7-8/1-4-7-8/1-4-7-8/1-4-7-8 ($24)
$1 Super High Five 4/8-9/1-7-8-9/1-7-8-9/1-7-8-9 ($12)
$1 Super High Five 4/8-9/8-9/1-7/1-7 ($4)

$1 Trifecta 7/1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9 ($12)
$1 Trifecta 1-4-8-9/7/1-4-8-9 ($12)
$1 Trifecta 1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9/7 ($12)
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Total Wagered: $100

Posted by: Ray Gordon on June 25, 2009 at 06:56 PM

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HG 139:
There really isnt much to say in this race. It looks like 1 of those races where you pick one of your angles and take a shot. I'm going to take a shot with the #10 and hope she improves in her 2nd race. Hopefully she can close better with the race under her belt. I dont really like anyone else so I will just be playing it straight WP.

50 WP #10

Posted by: scianc22 on June 25, 2009 at 06:58 PM

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Need to change my HG139 bet due to the late scratch of my pick #11. Not much time so I am just going to take a wild swing with firster #3:

$50 win/place #3

Posted by: Dick W on June 25, 2009 at 07:06 PM

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