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FormBlog | June 26, 2009
Jugheads?
While the Irresistible Force should have her way in the Mother Goose, and the Immovable Object figures to stand firm in the Vanity, it is tonight's third race at the Meadowlands that is the true race of the week.
Jugheads? On FormBlog? Sin! Sacrilege! Hear me out. If you're into the bizarre, like Jose Canseco in a mixed martial arts match against a Korean giant, you'll love this. Tonight's third race is a mile pace...on the turf! Weather permitting, and that's a big if with all the rain we've had in the New York/New Jersey area, the pacers will take to the Meadowlands grass course for the first time in 30 years. Harness racing on turf is fairly common in Europe, Scandinavia, and New Zealand, but is basically unheard of in the United States.
I'm no harness handicapper. Heck, I'm the worst thoroughbred handicapper on this blog. But, I just feel the need to dope out the race. So, here goes.
KEEPTHEPEACE N earned a "no factor" comment for his even fifth-place finish two weeks ago, but he sat in all the way around, and never really got a chance to partake in the proceedings. Last week, he was out before the half, and tried to grind first over. That's not an easy trip, but Keepthepeace N kept on to finish second behind the heavy favorite. He's taking a fairly dramatic step up in class, but the last race was promising. Wouldn't it be fitting if the first turf race in 30 years goes to the legendary driver John Campbell?
Also usable are ONEDIN LEGACY N, and DIAMOND JACK. The former went first over at the half, and kept on determinedly to the wire against similar $15,000 claimers last week. Diamond Jack left for the top last week, was shuffled to the three hole, stayed in entering the final turn, but soon found Onedin Legacy's cover. He failed to finish with that one, and may be more effective setting the pace.
As for the thoroughbred stakes races this weekend, I think they'll be chalky, but I do like SUNDAY GEISHA in the First Flight Handicap at Belmont on Sunday.
More importantly, who do you fancy this weekend? I want to know.
***
With that said, do you think a similar workout report for other states, like New York, is something that needs to be looked into? It definitely helps with first time starters and layoff horses.
matt
I don't have a problem with more information. If handicappers don't want to use it, or deem it irrelevant, they can always filter it out. Any information that can help the bettor should be published, and I have been a vocal advocate of a DRF-run workout report for many years. It's fallen on deaf ears, but one could always hope. You would think such a product would aid handicappers looking at unraced maidens as well as runners returning from long layoffs.
***
Dan –
Meadowlands? That's odd, as a fairly reliable source was said to have seen you in Buenos Aires...
tinky
LOL. I have never met Maria Belen Chapur, and if I did, I must unequivocally state that I did not have relations with that woman!
***
I agree that Bruno does fine work. He usually is the anchor guest on a morning radio show. If that show is available over the web, maybe you can give out the URL so the rest of the nation can tune in.
rr
I believe that Bruno contributes to Jason Levin's radio program. You can find archives here:
***
does anyone know what's up with Payton D'Oro and California Flag?
Kyri
Payton d'Oro finished second as the favorite in the Susan's Girl Stakes at Delaware over sloppy ground on June 20. California Flag returned to the worktab on June 21 with a three furlong drill in 37.40 handily at Hollywood Park.
***
BSF for Queen's Plate at WBO on 06/21/09?
Thank you in advance.
RandyTO1
RandyT01:
The DRF website posts recent Stakes Results and Beyers on the left side of the page. Eye of the Leopard got a 92 Beyer.
Zan the Man
***
Going to wait for cayman to post the official HandiGambling results before I name a winner.
***
Enjoy the weekend.
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on June 26, 2009 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
Alright Dan! Im with you with racing at the BigM. I will even take a stab here and also make a pick in that race.
I really like Onedin Legacy here. The race was taken off the turf last week and he lost by half a head at 30-1 with the toughest trip to the favorite who came back and won easy against tougher on Wednesday. Although he doesnt like to win, there isnt much in here and Chris Ryder is a decent triner who is just starting to heat upd he is from Australia where they run on the grass all the time. You arent going to get 30-1 but the price should be fair, around 4-1. I also like the 3 Keepthepeace with John Campbell who is probably the greatest harness driver of all time. So I would go #1 WP and exacta box 1-3.
Posted by: scianc22 on June 26, 2009 at 03:21 PM
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Dan:
Indiana Downs does run a few races on turf during their harness meet each year, I have seen it listed there when I did the trotters in the past. It is the first time The Meadowlands is doing so if the rain we are supposed to get tonight holds off.
One of the last posts in the last blog by Tejano Run is quite interesting concerning the suspension of trainer Kirk Ziadie. Quite interesting stuff there.
Posted by: Walt on June 26, 2009 at 03:32 PM
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RE: SUSPENSION OF KIRK ZIADIE (SCOOP that no one has reported on)
** Dan, please ask Mike Welsch or someone to report on this **
I’m on an anti-cheating campaign coast-to-coast. Last week here, I pointed out that Kirk Ziadie’s training license had been suspended in Florida due to an extraordinary list of violations this year and previous. I thought this would be big news! Heretofore, as fas as I know, no one – not DRF, not Ray Paulick, not the Miami papers - has covered this story or even mentioned it! I do not know how long Ziadie’s suspension lasts.
Ziadie ran horses this past weekend, so I attempted to contact numerous entities -- Calder Race Course; Don Brumfield (steward); Joe Schwerdt at the Miami Sun-Sentinel; Florida Dept of Pari-Mutuel Wagering; Ray Paulick -- asking how this was possible if Ziadie had been suspended. Michele Blanco of Calder did touch base but had no details.
Here, for your reading pleasure is my letter to David Roberts, Director of Florida Dept of Pari-Mutuel Wagering and his subsequent reply:
TEJANORUN: “Mr. Roberts, last week (June 18, 2009), your Department of Pari-Mutuel Wagering suspended the thoroughbred horse training license of Kirk Ziadie (PIN701515), the big-name horse trainer. Rightly so, he has received a lengthy list of medication violations in Florida and previously had only gotten meaningless fines and reprimands. The general perception is that thoroughbred racing is rigged by guys like Ziadie, among others, but suspension is an important way to regain the public’s confidence in the sport. Hopefully, Ziadie will reform his ways.
I am confused as to how Ziadie was allowed to enter and run horses at Calder on Saturday,June 20, and Sunday, June 21, despite the suspension. I attempted to contact the stewards at Calder Race Course via email asking them to explain why he was allowed to do so but I haven’t received a response and don’t know if I will get one. I have also emailed the Sun-Sentinel asking them to look into it but have not received a response either.
Perhaps this is something you could look into? Thank you.”
REPLY FROM DAVID ROBERTS: Thank you for your correspondence. While the Final Order on Trainer Ziadie was signed by me on the afternoon of Thursday, June 18, 2009, it does not become official until it is processed through our Department’s Clerk’s Office which was completed on Friday, June 19th. There appears to have been an error in the routing and notification of this suspension to Trainer Ziadie on our part; he was not formally notified of the suspension until the morning of Tuesday, June 23. The suspension period starts on the day that the Order is clerked which was June 19th. I hope this clears up any confusion. I apologize for not responding before now but I have been out of the office."
What I find amusing (not the best word!) is that I am in Illinois, and I knew Ziadie was suspended days before he did.
Here again is the link to his record:
https://www.myfloridalicense.com/viewcomplaint.asp?SID=&licid=518431
Okay, I'll take a break now and read "Beyer on Speed" LOL.
Posted by: TejanoRun on June 26, 2009 at 03:34 PM
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Warning: Long post here re: California racing, including complete email replies I received from Mike Marten and Dr. Rick Arthur.
I have been on an anti-cheating binge for awhile, from coast-to-coast, ever since the Andy Beyer article from earlier this year on miracle training feats. I did wager on our HG exercise yesterday but had previously not bet any California tracks for the past few months.
I have been most upset by the horses that appear on the California Veterinarian’s List, come off the list to run in a race, and then go right back on. To me, this smacks of big-time cheating, and putting a trainer’s horse on the list to avoid getting a positive just makes me feel like they are allowing the trainer to continue cheating. Posted below is my inquiry to the CHRB of a few weeks ago, followed by the replies I received from Mike Marten of CHRB and from Dr. Rick Arthur.
MY INQUIRY: “I am very confused as to what "Medication" refers to on the Vet's List. There are a handful of trainers with enormous numbers of horses listed for this. Mike Mitchell is the biggest violator around but Bob Hess, Ted West and Canani are also repeat offenders. Horses appear for Medication, suddenly drop for the list, enter a race, often running well, then go right back on the vet's list. I fail to see how this protects the public or offers any credibility to racing in California.
Today is June 12. A Ron Ellis trained horse, Rail Trip has been on the list as of May 10 for "Medication". Rule 1866 says that the horse must have a workout before the official veterinarian to be removed from the list. Rail Trip is entered Saturday, June 13 and is the favorite in the Californian. How can that be????
Horses like Big Booster, Church Service, Hyperbaric, and Spring House have been on the vet's list repeatedly, on the vet's list, on the vet's list, then come off for a race, but immediately go back on, sometimes the same day! Hyperbaric was on the list as of 5/22, but then magically came off to finish 2nd and collect a $64,000 purse, and then went back on the list a few days later.
Very Disappointed, I refuse to wager on any California racing until it is cleaned up. I know there is a horse issue and fields are small but putting your head in the sand isn't going to fix anything.”
REPLY FROM MIKE MARTEN, PUBLIC INFORMATION OFFICER AT CHRB: “We referred this matter to our equine medical director, Dr. Rick Arthur, whose response is pasted immediately below. We should add that the Veterinarian’s List has multiple purposes. One is to impose a mandatory layoff time for horses that have been treated with legally administered medications that have a tendency to linger in the system. By placing such horses on the Veterinarian’s List and preventing them from competing for the time required for the medication to clear the system, the California Horse Racing Board is protecting the public by insuring the treated horse does not gain an unfair advantage from the medication. The CHRB is protecting the horse by insuring the horse has sufficient time to fully recover from the problem that required the medication. And the CHRB is protecting the owner and trainer from an inadvertent positive for a drug that is prohibited from being in the horse at the time of the race. As Dr. Arthur pointed out, horses placed on the list for this reason are not required to work.
We hope these explanations restore your confidence in California horse racing.”
REPLY FROM DR. RICK ARTHUR, DVM, EQUINE MEDICAL DIRECTOR: “California uses the Veterinarian’s List for a number of reasons. Some are quite minor; others are not. For example, horses are placed on the Veterinarian’s List if their Coggins lab report has not been filed with the Official Veterinarian. In that case, when the report is produced the horse comes off the Veterinarian’s List. No special examination is necessary. Rule 1866 does not require a workout; the rule reads “a horse may be required to perform satisfactorily in a work-out…” This is at the discretion of the Official Veterinarian but at the major thoroughbred tracks (SA, DMR, HOL, OSA, GG) any horse on the Veterinarian’s List as Lame or Unsound is required to work for the Official or Association veterinarian. Horses on for other reasons may or may not require examination. Some Veterinarian’s List categories are simply time restrictions before being allowed to race. That includes medication (5, 15 or 30 days depending on medication) & shockwave therapy (minimum10 days). Coggins, some illnesses and minor injuries do not require a workout under certain conditions but have other removal criteria. Regardless, all horses are examined prior to racing at which time the examining veterinarians has the examination card with all Veterinarian’s List entries a horses may have along with all previous examination findings.
The Medication category in the Veterinarian’s List is unique to California. . I doubt you will see it in any other state; in fact some states don’t even publish their Veterinarian’s List at all. This category was instituted to avoid inadvertent positives for certain medications that have a long drug residue profiles. While I am disappointed a small group of trainers continue to use restricted medications at all the program has been effective at avoiding unnecessary positives because horses aren’t allowed to race for a some time after treatment. I am very aware of the who, when and where.
No state has cleaner racing than California or more public disclosure. We have a very comprehensive drug testing program and thorough regulatory procedures. The medication and shockwave therapy categories in the Veterinarian’s List are part of that comprehensive regulatory process.“
Posted by: TejanoRun on June 26, 2009 at 03:35 PM
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Some very good stuff there concerning the Ziadie suspension (obviously, at the time I did my last post I didn't know you were going to re-post those in this blog).
The whole issue with medication, coupled with the fact I think meds are part of the problem with horses not racing as frequently is why I would be looking at making serious changes in the sport concerning this. I posted this previously in the Cristblog (as part of a longer post), but I think this is relevant to this discussion so I will repost that here:
Drugs are another issue, obviously, and changes there do need to be made in that regard as well. This, however, is something that can't be changed overnight, but to me it can be done if it is phased in over a period of time, most likely in the following manner:
Beginning in 2010: No more having horses do one furlong drills as two year olds in training and using other items of any kind to make yearlings and two year olds "sale ready." Horses will have to "make it" in the sales on their natural appearence. Two year olds will also be barred from racing on any medication of any kind, having to race on hay, oats and water only. In addition, horses racing in the Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup and other selected Grade 1 events (Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Arlington Million, Santa Anita Handicap, etc.) would not be permitted to have any race day medication for such races either. There is a precedent for this in Harness Racing: In the Hambletonian and its filly counterpart (Hambletonian Oaks), horses are NOT permitted to race on any race-day medication of any kind, and it seems to have little effect on their ability.
2011: The ban on medication is extended to three year olds until after the Triple Crown races EXCEPT where they are facing older horses who are permitted to race on allowed medication. The stakes ban on medication would be expanded to ALL Grade 1 and Grade 2 stakes.
2012: Same bans for two and three year olds while the ban on stakes races is expanded to ALL Graded stakes events of any kind. Also, beginning in 2012, any trace of medication would constitute a positive test, and trainers with such would be subject to harsh penalities if proven the trainer was at fault for that.
2013: All race day medication is banned, and any trace consitutes a positive.
These are just some steps that can be done to remedy what has been a serious problem in recent years with the sport of kings. Obviously, it would involve everyone involved put aside any differences they may have to put the sport above everything else, but if everyone involved has the guts to do so, that would bring the sport back into the positive light.
Posted by: Walt on June 26, 2009 at 03:46 PM
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YES
Way to go Chantal!!!! She bailed me out for the week and we are back in business!!!! She closed from last to first. Bet $200WP. I was down $3100 for the week since Wednesday. Race 5 at Woodbine. She caught the 3/5 shot!!
Prices $57.90 Win $10.40 Place She can ride baby.
Bet $400 Collected $6830.
ROI = $6430
Love this game!!!!!
Whackymacky OUT!
PS Nice win on the HG 139 Who hit it?
Posted by: Whackymacky on June 26, 2009 at 03:53 PM
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Monmouth Meetup Reminder
Scianc22 (ciao, Mario!) please do look for us by the paddock tomorrow -"Katherine the Great" purple t-shirt and TBTA in a red-purple tunic...
Cell phone: 607-343-3981
Any other FormBlog friends welcome to hang out at Blue Thong Central!
Good luck all,
Katieattherail
Posted by: Katieattherail on June 26, 2009 at 04:14 PM
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For the record, I have already chosen next week's Handigambling race:
Race 4 at Penn National, a $5,000 maiden claimer at six furlongs!
http://www.drf.com/static/entries/01/ePEN01.html?rn=064641#4
Full field of 12 entered, plus SIX also-eligibles. The early scratches should be known and the race have final entries with Morning Line, etc. sometime on Saturday.
Posted by: Walt on June 26, 2009 at 04:47 PM
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I forgot:
That is next Wednesday's fourth at Penn National (July 1).
Penn has 50-cent trifectas in addition to 10-cent superfectas (no Super High Five here).
Posted by: Walt on June 26, 2009 at 05:12 PM
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OK LONGSHOT DAN,
You are forcing me back to my roots....harness racing!! Where have you gone, Roosevelt Raceway?? John Campbell is still a driver?? Where is Bill O'Donnell??
MED3 (8f pace turf 15Kclaimers): #2 Nicky Hanover N (ML:4/1) -> failed as 9/10 fav last week, should get the lead inside and will be tough to catch, Tetrick/Fusco very live connections. Will include closers #1 Onedin Legacy N (ML:5/1) and #7 Diamond Jack (ML:5/2) in exactas. (P3:'A'=#2,'B'=#1,7; WP#2; EXBX#1,2; EXBX#2,7)
Posted by: Alan on June 26, 2009 at 05:26 PM
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scianc22/Dan;
Alright...if you two are buying in, then I guess I will have to check this out. I can't believe this is happening to me...this place cracks me up...
Posted by: Van Savant on June 26, 2009 at 05:33 PM
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I don't believe we've seen the "Official" sign posted yet...
Posted by: p ensign on June 26, 2009 at 05:47 PM
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Tejano Run,
I posted about Popular on the previous post when I did a pedigree analysis breakdown of the handigambling race.
Also, thanks for the info on Kurt Ziadie. Like you, I’m surprised someone in the media hasn’t picked up on his numerous drug positives and suspension, plus the fact that he was allowed to run a horse while under suspension. What I find interesting is that one reads of suspensions and drug positives in New York, Kentucky and California, but never in Florida. So, does that mean there are no reporters that cover Florida racing, or is the old-boy network so entrenched here that it’s still just a wink, nudge and look the other way?
WackyMacky, WTG!
I've been wondering about this harness racing on turf idea. Don't those sulky wheels tear up the sod? Is it harder for the horses to pull the sulky? What if someone gets stuck in the mud, or grass gets caught in the wheels, do they send in the monster trucks to pull them out or just hitch the loosing horses together and do it that way?
Posted by: Laura on June 26, 2009 at 06:11 PM
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Cancelled the 9th at Belmont!!!!!!!! I have the pick 4 going to 4 horse's!!!! Are you kidding me!!!!!!!. Wait for the rain to pass. Never heard of such a thing. OUT!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Whackymacky on June 26, 2009 at 06:53 PM
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TejanoRun,
Thanks for reporting the Kirk Ziadie suspension and the California's "Vet's List for Medication" letters. You are fighting the good fight. Keep up the good work!
Posted by: cjsluckyboy on June 26, 2009 at 07:08 PM
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"Never heard of such a thing."
Posted by: Whackymacky on June 26, 2009 at 06:53 PM
hmmm, and you make how much a year, for how many straight years? and you've never seen a race cancelled?
still waiting to hear about your daily/weekly/monthly/annual bankroll that gets you that steady return...
thanks
Posted by: p ensign on June 26, 2009 at 07:27 PM
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From last thread: I had never heard this word before, but thanks to google, here's the definition.
Definition of a redboarder:
redboard…A racing term; one who claims to have selected the winning horse in a horse race, but who always does so following the race; a derogatory term ...
It's really a shame that name calling has become a current phenomenon here. This was one of the very few sites where polite and at the same time opposing views were discussed, whether it be horses, politics, sports or life in general. Now it seems that drama and the general incivility of our current society reigns supreme......what a loss and waste.
Posted by: turnbackthealarm on June 26, 2009 at 07:40 PM
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Hey! They took MED3 off turf!! Oh well...
Posted by: Alan on June 26, 2009 at 07:51 PM
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Dan,
Stick to trotters.
$14 and change.
Not bad.
Posted by: AmericanDragon on June 26, 2009 at 07:55 PM
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Like #4 Offlee Dark here in the 5th at CD. $100WPS.
LOL OUT!
Posted by: Whackymacky on June 26, 2009 at 07:59 PM
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Really like #2 Miro in the 10th at CD. Zayat owned and Mott trained. Has the back class to win this one. Hope this 3 year old colt likes the lights in KY. Play of the day for me. $1000 WIN!!!! OUT PS Hope that I get even money.
Posted by: Whackymacky on June 26, 2009 at 08:06 PM
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Does anyone know what happened to Bob Black Jack?
He won a Grade 1 sprint at the end of the year. Then he apparently had some undisclosed injury. Has he been retired? Is he going to race again?
Posted by: AnneM on June 26, 2009 at 09:00 PM
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"This was one of the very few sites where polite and at the same time opposing views were discussed, whether it be horses, politics, sports or life in general."
TBTA,
Sorry, but that's where you're missing the point. This is supposed to be a HORSERACING site. Not politics, other sports, or life in general. Nobody minds a little side note about something else here and there (not politics though) as long as most of the post is racing-related. This is FORMblog, not POLblog, LIFEblog, or SPORTSblog. Everyone lets their personality come out in their post... that's perfectly fine and that's where the sense of community arises. But there's a difference between posting things that are 100% unrelated or just completely silly and throwing a little humor/edge/personality into a post that has something to do with a current issue in racing/handicapping.
Posted by: C on June 26, 2009 at 09:04 PM
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Laura, your pedigree acumen is without question.
My inquiry about the sire Popular was directed to the Walt Parker/Ray Gordon personality, as his "Price and Proabability [sic]" web page states "Ray Gordon is a pedigree expert without par."
I thought that was a rather boisterous claim, but I presumed the bro was so busy with other matters that Mr. Parker didn't have the time to produce any 2yo pedigree analysis, and I was curious if he had any insights about Popular since the HG exercise. (Borrowed) Smile.
Posted by: TejanoRun on June 26, 2009 at 10:34 PM
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I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin: It pays to pay attention. I bet Soul Warrior WPS after the horse he beat in last, Karama, was all guts to win a Churchill allowance about a half an hour before the Iowa Derby. What I don't get (but won't complain about) is how he paid 10.60 to show and the winner paid 5.40 and they both went off at 13-1.
Man, I love a key race!
Posted by: jim tully on June 26, 2009 at 11:50 PM
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Mr. Illman,
Why are the times at Ascot so slow? The track record for a mile is 1:38 and change. The 1 1/2 miles record is 2:27.24. Also Ghanaati broke Henrythenavigator's 1m track record. Henry ran very well in the B.C. Classic last year. Is Ghanaati a B.C. Classic contender. Also, given the slow times at Ascot, are shorter distances over their equal to longer distances in the U.S.? For example is a 6f race at Ascot just as taxing as a 1m race in the U.S.? If so could a horse like Cannonball be a good miler in the U.S. and Ghanaati good at 1 1/4 miles in the U.S.?
Posted by: Captain Bodgit on June 27, 2009 at 05:49 AM
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Good morning all.....
Monmouth Musings:
Seeing as I had access and time to review some of the PPs, I'm taking a shot on # 8 Blind Date in the Boiling Springs (Race 9)....it's Dan the Man's "Fresh face" angle, with solid jock aboard who's been there for the reent wins. Good '09 season and love the works too, looks real consistent and the "driving" in the last two races tells me the outside post won't be an issue.
For what's worth in full disclosure dep't:I did fail to hit the board yesterday, and am now officially out of the Survival contest. Still, $382.20 for final bankroll and finished in top fifth..it's all valuable experience. Good luck to Ruffian aka Joe and others who are still alive! New life preserver arrives on Wed.
KatieattherailinJoisey
Posted by: Katieattherail on June 27, 2009 at 06:51 AM
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Dan - curious what you think of the Queen's Plate winner Eye of The Leopord. He has the breeding and is lightly raced. Seems to be more of a plodder than anything - but Frostad is convinced he'll move up on dirt. It's been a while since a Canadian bred has done anything state-side in the big route races. Thoughts? And what ever happened to Harlam Rocker?
Posted by: magicstrife on June 27, 2009 at 07:51 AM
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Some Arlington thoughts for today-it's a contest day and there's an 11K carryover for the early pick four
1st- 1-Shaken n Quacken-barn is 16% with 2yo firsters but an incredible 33% with state bred firsters! Don't like either of the horses who've already run-5-Lisa's Tiger another firster who's been working 5f last 3 times out, and 8-Fantastic Madame will probably be a huge price-kind of using her as a hunch to be honest
2nd-For some reason I like this spot for 3-Lil Cora Tee-3rd off a layoff and comes off 2 allowance races at Prarie Meadows (and their slot infused purses) Should be able to sit off the speed and pull off a mild upset-1-Dottie Booth will probably be the chalk and if she can avoid getting cooked on the front end will be tough-Rivelli is 24% when claiming a horse and then stretching him out. 4-Frosty Melody could actually be alone on the front end and is 10/1 ML but I'm only going 2 deep in my pick four.
3rd-tough race-10K mdn claimers statebreds-not the most talent you'll see on a racetrack at one time-My pick is 6-Kerry Frost- first time starter for barn who usually starts their horses in MSW for some reason-in a field this bad, as the comments in the AP program said, at least she's never lost! 11-Sharnette is prime top pick and drops from MSW-first for a tag always a dangerous angle with maidens-8 Margarette S-very postive trainer change from Dorris to Justin Johns, 5-Mz Fuzz-while beyers weren't high, the group she competed against last time have come back to run fairly well-this is a 4 deep race for me.
4th-actually you could take any of the top 4 and draw a name out of the hat! I ended up with 7 Lilbitlively just because even though this is a mile instead of 1 1/16 he'll have whole stretch to close rather than that alternate finish line-Jesse gets back on and they won last time they were paired up. 2-Beat the Freeze is prime top and drops a ton, 6-Molander has been 1st or 2nd 5 of last 6 races but only one of those was a win. 8-Mr Seeabra-poly breeding hasn't shown up on track yet but does get easier foes today.
5th-Tea Lak-best bet of the day-see previous post but 6-Penny's Dream kind of intrigues me a little bit-bred for poly, race 2 back wasn't too bad and I'm guessing off that dull effort last will be even higher than the 8/1 ML. Could really drive the P4 price up!
6th-(not in either pick four) but 4-Heaven's Tour is first time poly and bred for poly. Has been competitive on grass and last work backs up the poly breeding-12/1 ML makes very inviting
7th-couple of interesting horses in here in a race with tons of speed-1 Glory to Spare had a nice win from off the pace last at this level but the one I like even more is 6-Garboso- at 8/1 is twice the ML price of 1 and really seems to be coming back around since being claimed by the DiVito barn.
8th-3-Kimbo is a nice filly with a ton of upside but 2-That's A Fact is a 12/1 shot who should get the lead and may forget to stop!
9th-7-Greely's Angel is thought by "experts" to be a poly horse but his only turf sprint was pretty good-beaten only a length in a good allowance race despite road trouble. 6-Boots are Walking always runs a decent race and had 2 wins at this level over this track last year. 8-Manecke merits the favoritism Tried tougher last but at this level, while I'll try to beat him, I must admit it could be a tall order
10th-2-Gangbuster is gonna be tougher than nails here but if Eddie Perez is allowed (by the field and his horse) to get away with slow fractions on 1-Rumour Has It he could lull everyone to sleep and win at a fair price.
11th-what a crapshoot! I went 7 deep in the pick four (1,3,5,6,8,9,11) but a couple of longshots intrigue me here:
5-Warrior Cape didn't do much with MSW last time but that was on dirt-ran a good race with cheaper and missed by a half length on poly, but has a 370 tomlinson on turf, a 391 tomlinson at the distance, and a 20/1 ML price.
11-Marvan is the prime top and first around two turns, first time turf. Tomlinsons not as impressive as Warrior but Jimmy Divito seems to have a nack for knowing what to do with these lightly raced horses although his first turf numbers, to be honest aren't impressive-still when bris prime power top is 12/1, certainly I have to at least consider!
Posted by: Stephen Taylor on June 27, 2009 at 08:02 AM
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Katie:
I played in a few of those "Survivor" contests at The Meadowlands, and they are not as easy as they look, since you have to look to survive, but also look for decent price horses at times (I went all the way to the end a few years in a thoroughbred one and still had no chance at winning, and that was with no life preserver). I was in a harness one two years ago until a week to go when I was finally eliminated, having to take shots on longer priced horses to have any chance of winning as it worked out.
Anyway, I thought it would be fun to do a handicapping exercise with TONIGHT's (Sat.) running of the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (9th Race at Prairie Meadows, scheduled to go off at 11:15 PM ET/10:15 PM CT). I'm going to put wagers down using the same $100 bankroll used in Handigambling, in my case, using the same method that produced the 77-1 shot who race second in Thursday's HG Race. This is just for fun, however:
The race itself is wide open, with five members of the field within six points of each other. STONEHOUSE (#1) has the best value in the race (5-1 Value Line and 8-1 Morning Line), while the two top probability horses are MY PAL CHARLIE (#2, 3-1 VL/4-1 ML) and JONESBORO (#8, 3-1 VL/7-2 ML). RED HOT N GOLD (#3, 10-1 VL/12-1 ML) is the other horse with a lower value line than morning line. SHADOWBDANCING (#5, 5-1 VL/5-1 ML) is a horse that should be included in underneath and/or multi-race wagers (especially the 50-cent pick four that this race is part of).
The wagers:
$0.50 Superfecta 1-2-3-8/1-2-3-5-8/1-2-3-5-8/1-2-3-5-8 ($48)
$1 Trifecta 1-2-3-8/1-2-3-5-8/1-2-3-5-8 ($48)
$1 Exacta 1/2-3-5-8 ($4)
Wagering $100 total on this race.
Posted by: Walt on June 27, 2009 at 08:18 AM
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TejanoRun,
Thanks for the compliment.
I haven't heard of Ray Gordon either, but then, there are lots of people in the field. I did read a comment made by him on TruNicks, that if Rachael Alexandria was bred to Rahy that "you'd get another Man o' War or Nearco."
While I won’t debate the merits of the hypo-mating, as it would be purely conjecture, I am amused by his bold statement. I certainly wouldn’t talk like that to a client. At least not a client I hoped to do business with again should the breeding prove to be a poor match. Yes, confidence is necessary in one’s analysis, but overconfidence and bragging (IMHO and experience) usually comes back to bite you in the end….the hind end.
Laura (borrowing Slew’s smile)
Posted by: Laura on June 27, 2009 at 08:30 AM
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As for Belmont's ninth being cancelled yesterday (Friday):
The storm hit just after the eighth race had been run. It was scheduled for the turf, and it was likely the main track only horses would have scratched had it been taken off as it would likely have had to following a storm like that (the fifth and sixth at Belmont have in fact come off the turf today). It was probably in everyone's best interest that the race in question be cancelled, with perhaps next Saturday (July 4), NYRA carding 11 races OR a week from Friday (July 10, next twilight card) carding 10 races to make up the cancelled race.
Posted by: Walt on June 27, 2009 at 08:55 AM
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I meant to say the main track only horses were already scratched and most of the main body likely would have followed had it been moved to the main track.
Posted by: Walt on June 27, 2009 at 08:56 AM
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HG 139 Recap:
Sorry folks, I had a brutal back to back super loss in HOL 7-8 on HG day and I was so miffed I closed up shop for a while to let some steam off. Very, very frustrated.
Anyway, WALT is the winner of HG 139. Whether he's a multi-poster or not only Dan the Man would know for sure. He gets the IP addresses with the blog posts.
His total of $1493.79 topped ray Gordon and Tejano run by a few hundred dollars each. If I had been a little better with my construction I would have had it too, but we ALL know I suck at construction.
Anyway, on to Penn Nat'l and MCL's. You are a wicked man Walt.
On the other hand Walt, good suggestion on the outlawing of medications. And kudos to Tejanorun for doggedly calling out the cheaters and exposing them here in this forum. Not sure you got a straight answer from Cali, but it was very good to point it out.Keep it up. I think only we, the horseplayers, can really do anything about the situation in our sport.
I think this is the perfect forum to call out the chating and injustices that go on in our sport. Furthermore, I think we all should shout out from the rooftops of Formblog whenever we see something that is wrong. And then make it viral. I know many here belong to other Horse blogs. Start cutting and pasting to these other blogs and let's try to make a difference in the sport we love.
Let's make this wheel SQUEAK!
And then we may get some satisfaction.
Onto another subject: the tone of this board. I have to agree, to a point, with Steve T., C, and others. The purpose of this blog is to exchange ideas on horses and betting them. We should try to keep as close to that as possible. I enjoy the occasional OLA (Hey, I was one of the first practitioners) and other sidelights. Humor is always welcome (barn talk), and the occasional political post doesn't hurt. But we've lost quite a few good posters over the last few months because we went a bit off the rails.
Has anybody heard from the zayats? the mott barn? ray manley? and now Steve T, slew, scianc22, Alan and a few others have pretty much disappeared into the woods. Not good.let's get back to what formblog does best!
Posted by: cayman01 on June 27, 2009 at 10:09 AM
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Almost forgot HG sheet is here:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pbWiA1VmZWoVb6aFdAVqfLg&hl=en
PGM School/ROTD
Rachel Alexander lays over these and wins for fun. I'll take Don't forget Gill to close for second:
$100 EX 3/2
Posted by: cayman01 on June 27, 2009 at 10:18 AM
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Uncle Steve,
Here's an interesting story about California's synthetic tracks:
http://www.pasadenastarnews.com/sports/ci_12690905
Is there any credence to this story? Are people upset about the synthetic surfaces or is this just one columnists opinion?
Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on June 27, 2009 at 10:28 AM
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Okay. So I'll finish at $1019.80 with the tri and wp and we'll move on.
VanSavant - thanks for the support. I appreciate your post from last night as well.
P Ensign - merci.
Posted by: TejanoRun on June 27, 2009 at 11:01 AM
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A 3-horse Mother Goose, and there are still people wishing and hoping racing will get to the national stage in America? I have to think that fans are completely delusional if they really believe this thing is ever turning around. With the exception of a few decent cards and races throughout the year, the quality of racing coast-to-coast is pretty much gone nowadays. That doesn't mean there aren't any decent horses; it's just rare to see more than 1 of them in the same race. Put a fork in the American game because it's pretty much done.
This Mother Goose is a mismatch on paper, yet I can still see Rachel getting beat. Here's to Malibu Prayer or Flashing "earning" that prized Grade 1 win today.
Posted by: C on June 27, 2009 at 12:30 PM
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Hi everyone
Took a lead from johnny z, and others & watched some UK racing on TVG this morning.
The Pretty Polly ( WAYI) race (7 horses) and the Curragh Cup (5 horses)...I was a bit surprised to see such short fields. I think I remember some chatter about UK having larger fields than the No. America contingent.
Comments? thoughts? Thanks!
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 27, 2009 at 12:42 PM
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opps,
I'm gonna admend my last post...I only saw those two races on TVG...now that I saw the rest of the card (on the At The Races site) I see the rest had 10-12-14-15-20 runners...nevermind!
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 27, 2009 at 12:48 PM
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Calvin,
Thanks for the link to the article on synthetics. Interesting. It's pretty obvious that Gary Stute sure doesn't care for the forced surface switch. From what I have read elsewhere, I don't think there are many trainers still in love with the stuff.
P Ensign: Why do you feel the need to be so condescending to other posters? If you don't belive him, then don't. Just let it go.
Posted by: longwaytomay on June 27, 2009 at 12:54 PM
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TejanoRun;
No problem. Your a class act. Good luck to everyone today!
Posted by: Van Savant on June 27, 2009 at 02:33 PM
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P Ensign
Yes, I do know that races get cancelled many times for many reasons. I was excited to see the ninth race because I was alive to 4 horses in the pick 4 and wanted to see the race. I have been to Saratoga many times and have seen some crazy weather wipe out the place.
I did post my weekly game plan on how I make my living. I will post it later again for you. I am looking to make money today.
LOL to you and everyone else on Lady's day. OUT
Posted by: Whackymacky on June 27, 2009 at 03:11 PM
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Annie,
I sure couldn't blame you for never returning. You take a blast that is rediculously out of line and not only do you not recieve an apology, but, not a single person comes to your defense. To make it worse you get posters coming on supporting the blaster and ignoring the offense. Wow!
I am sorry that this has happened to you Annie you deserve much better and I wish you well in all you do.
Posted by: Fred on June 27, 2009 at 03:15 PM
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longwaytomay,
Thanks for the feedback.
Laura,
Here’s a pedigree note about inbreeding that I thought you would find interesting (you may have already read something similar). I’ve been reading “Horse Breeding In Theory And Practice” by Burchard Von Oettingen which was published in 1909 by Sampson Low, Marston & Co.
In his chapter on Inbreeding Oettingen states:
“Common ancestors constitute the basis of inbreeding. By “free generations” is meant the number of generations between the common ancestors and the sire on the one side, and between the common ancestors and the dam on the other side.” - page 224
“…There has been also much damaged by exaggerated inbreeding in the American Thoroughbred breeding. Among the many instances of 0 free generation I have not found a single one in the American Stud Book which has been of importance to breeding. I have only found one good racehorse in the American Breeding, and that is Henry 1819 by Sir Archy-Doimed (i.e. 0 Diomed), celebrated by his famous match with the American Eclipse in New York, 1823.” - page 233
Here’s the pedigree of Henry: http://www.pedigreequery.com/henry
On page 318, Oettingen lists the number of male and female winners of the Derby, St. Leger and Oaks arranged according to free generations of inbreeding. Oettingen concludes:
“1. On the whole the most of the classical winners are found among the 4 free generations, next to which follow the 3 and 5 free generations.
“2. Up to the middle of the past century the 4 free generations predominate also. …
“3. From the middle of the past century up to now the whole picture has been changed in favour of a more removed inbreeding. Here the 5 free generations appear to be the most favourable only, after which follow the more removed inbreedings with 6 free generations, and finally that with 7 free generations.
“4. Lastly, it is worthy of note that the winners of two classical races have been more numerously represented with the more removed inbreedings.
Oettingen then proceeds to illustrate in another table on page 319 the male and female winners of the Derby, St. Leger and Oaks that were born until the year 1895 that were most successful at stud:
“The same change in favour of the more removed inbreeding is shown in the following table, in which the percentage of stallions and mares most successful in breeding is reckoned from the above list. Accordingly, the percentage of stallions most successful in breeding increases with the number of free generations up to 6 free generations [59.1%], in the case of mares even up to 7 free generations [75%].”
I found Oettingen’s analysis interesting in that the farther inbreeding is removed from the foal, the better chance you have a producing a quality thoroughbred.
Although unscientific, I conducted my own survey of modern-day Triple Crown Champions and found similar statistics:
1978 – Affirmed = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; 1977 – Seattle Slew = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; 1973 – Secretariat = no inbreeding in 5 generations; 1970 – Nijinsky = inbreeding in 5th remove; 1948 – Citation = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; 1946 – Assault = inbreeding in 5th remove; 1943 – Count Fleet = inbreeding in 4th remove; 1941 – Whirlaway = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; 1937 – War Admiral = no inbreeding in 5 generations; 1935 – Omaha = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; 1930 – Gallant Fox = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; 1919 – Sir Barton = inbreeding in 3rd , 4th and 5th remove.
Here is also what I found for three of, perhaps, the most important Thoroughbreds of all time: Man o’ War = inbreeding in 5th remove; Secretariat = no inbreeding in 5 generations; Ribot = inbreeding in 5th remove.
Other important Thoroughbreds include: Northern Dancer = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; Mr. Prospector = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; Nearco = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; Native Dancer = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove;
Here’s some other interesting statistics applicable to more recent times: Zenyatta = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; Rachel Alexandra = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove.
Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on June 27, 2009 at 03:34 PM
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Thanks Cayman for the comments on the suggestion on banning lasix. I used to be very pro-lasix, but it has to me become obvious in recent years that the use of it has gone far beyond the original purpose. We did not get into this mess overnight, and this is why I wrote what I did with regard to phasing it out over a few years.
Posted by: Walt on June 27, 2009 at 04:50 PM
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I'm really starting to believe Rachel is something more than just a really nice horse. I want throw the G word at her till she meets and beats older but even on a lightening fast track that was as impressive as a horse
can be.
Zenyatta is starting to get a case of the Curlins, I mean she's just doing enough to get the job done, but someone tell me I'm wrong when I say she looks extremely stiff is it the poly!!!! or is has she lost a step. She looked like a sore horse to me today, but a sore winner pays the same! Please lets see these two get it on!
Posted by: Hillbilly on June 27, 2009 at 05:57 PM
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This may be of interst only to me but my brother is currently in 1st place in the NHC qualifying tourny with 2 races to go. Top 9 get seats to national tourny in vegas. SR, hopefully we r on our way again.
BigEasyBigChok
Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on June 27, 2009 at 06:19 PM
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What's not to like about Zenyatta? But Rachel? WOW!
Posted by: Kat on June 27, 2009 at 06:35 PM
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Sorry to rain on the Rachel Alexandra "OMG wow" Mother Goose parade but she beat two over matched runners who set a suicide pace -- setting it up perfectly for a smarter (recalling Mine That Bird's Belmont) Calvin Borel. No doubt 20 lengths plus (according to Tom Durkin) was nice but it was nothing more than a paid workout.
Zenyatta carried 129 pounds giving 15 pounds to the runner up Briecat who I admit isn't a world beater but is a G2 winner on Hollywood Park's cushion track -- and got some pretty easy fractions up front. I also admit the rest of the field was none too exciting in the Vanity -- yet she remains unbeaten (11 for 11) with yet another of her patented late runs.
All that said, I am glad to hear Jerry Moss is a sporting man (in deference to Jess Jackson's whining about "plastic" racing surfaces) who will do his best to have a Zenyatta match up with Rachel Alexandra sometime later this year if she exits today's racing in fine shape. As Mr. Moss noted it would be great for racing ... let's hope it happens.
- robertSD
Posted by: robertSD on June 27, 2009 at 06:37 PM
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BigEasyBigChok
WOW, Give your brother Michael my best, and good Luck!! I would love to see you guys back in town. Keep in touch.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 27, 2009 at 07:39 PM
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Hi Hillbilly
Rachael Alexander did look ultra nice today, and gearing down & still breaking the track record. & winning by more lenghts than Ruffian did, when she had that lengths record.
(see the drf link on home page)
Regarding Zenyatta, I didn't think she looked stiff, and she was doing her normal prancing before the race routine...all systems go with her. The drf article has Mike Smith saying he was trying to time his finish to win by a length (she won 2 1/2) so she didn't start her move until later, but she still won with her ears pricked (IMO ready for more) I don't think they have begun to reach into her gas tank yet.
just my .02c .
I too, would like to see this wonderful filly and mare race against each other this year.
Oh well, let's see...It shall make for an interesting story this summer.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 27, 2009 at 07:53 PM
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Zenyatta's win was nice but she did seem somewhat flat.
Rachel Alexandra, on the other hand, was spectacular - It doesn't matter who she beat - she broke the stakes record geared down and rated quite nicely early on.
I think she is the best horse in training right now and could end up being one of the TB greats.
Posted by: AnneM on June 27, 2009 at 08:41 PM
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Nothing like matching a stakes record geared down in a paid workout!! Secretariat's track record looked within reach.
I do think Calvin might start thinking about the handicappers in Rachel's future though. . .
Posted by: Kat on June 27, 2009 at 09:40 PM
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I have not chatted on this blog in a while, but do read it most days, and I have to say that after 30 plus years of handicapping, we are witnessing two of the all time great females of racing. What adjective can properly describe Zenyatta? Then RA breaks Ruffian's Stakes record all in the same hour, these are two incredible talents, relish the moment.
Posted by: KC Mark on June 27, 2009 at 11:57 PM
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Laura, johnnyz,
Here's some more interesting statistics about inbreeding in the Thoroughbred. Most of the important Thoroughbreds of the past century had inbreeding in at least the 4th remove of their pedigree. The following list of of the Blood Horse Top 100 Thoroughbreds:
1. Man o' War = inbreeding in 5th remove
2. Secretariat = no inbreeding in 5 generations
3. Citation inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
4. Kelso = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
5. Count Fleet = inbreeding in 4th remove
6. Dr. Fager = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
7. Native Dancer = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
8. Forego = inbreeding in 5th remove
9. Seattle Slew = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
10. Spectacular Bid = inbreeding in 3rd and 5th remove
11. Tom Fool = inbreeding in 5th remove
12. Affirmed = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
13. War Admiral = no inbreeding in 5 generations
14. Buckpasser = inbreeding in 4th remove
15. Colin = no inbreeding in 5 generations
16. Damascus = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
17. Round Table = inbreeding in 5th remove
18. Cigar = no inbreeding in 5 generations
19. Bold Ruler = inbreeding in 5th remove
20. Swaps = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
21. Equipoise = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
22. Phar Lap = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
23. John Henry = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
24. Nashua = no inbreeding in 5 generations
25. Seabiscuit = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th generations
26. Whirlaway = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
27. Alydar = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
28. Gallant Fox = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
29. Exterminator = inbreeding in 5th remove
30. Sysonby = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
31. Sunday Silence = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
32. Skip Away = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
33. Assault = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
34. Easy Goer = inbreeding 5th remove
35. Ruffian = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
36. Gallant Man = inbreeding 3rd and 4th remove
37. Discovery = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
38. Challedon = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
39. Armed = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
40. Busher = inbreeding 3rd and 4th remove
41. Stymie = inbreeding 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
42. Alysheba = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
43. Northern Dancer = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
44. Ack Ack = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
45. Gallorette = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
46. Majestic Prince = inbreeding in 5th remove
47. Coaltown = no inbreeding in 5 generations
48. Personal Ensign = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
49. Sir Barton = inbreeding 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
50. Dahlia = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
51. Susan's Girl = inbreeding 5th remove
52. Twenty Grand = inbreeding 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
53. Sword Dancer = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
54. Grey Lag = inbreeding in 5th generation
55. Devil Diver = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
56. Zev = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
57. Riva Ridge = inbreeding in 5th remove
58. Slew o'Gold = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
59. Twilight Tear = inbreeding in 5th remove
60. Native Diver = no inbreeding in 5 generations
61. Omaha = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
62. Cicada = inbreeding in 5th remove
63. Silver Charm = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
64. Holy Bull = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
65. Alsab = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
66. Top Flight = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
67. Arts and Letters = inbreeding in 5th remove
68. All Along = inbreeding in 4th remove
69. Noor = inbreeding in 3rd and 4th remove
70. Shuvee = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
71. Regret = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
72. Go for Wand = inbreeding in the 5th remove
73. Johnstown = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
74. Bald Eagle inbreeding in 5th remove
75. Hill Prince = inbreeding in 5th remove
76. Lady's Secret = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
77. Two Lea = inbreeding in 4th remove
78. Eight Thirty = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
79. Gallant Bloom = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
80. Ta Wee = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
81. Affectionately = inbreeding in 2nd 4th and 5th remove
82. Miesque = inbreeding in 5th remove
83. Carry Back = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
84. Bimelech = no inbreeding in 5 generations
85. Lure = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
86. Fort Marcy = no inbreeding in 5 generations
87. Gamely = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
88. Old Rosebud = inbreeding in 3rd and 4th remove
89. Bewitch = inbreeding in 4th remove
90. Davona Dale = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
91. Genuine Risk = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
92. Sarazen = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
93. Sun Beau = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
94. Artful = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
95. Bayakoa = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
96. Exceller = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
97. Foolish Pleasure = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
98. Beldame = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
99. Roamer = inbreeding in 5th remove
100. Blue Larkspur = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on June 27, 2009 at 11:59 PM
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oh yeah, 44 and 3?
108 and 4?
as McEnroe would say
"COME ON!"
or is that "ARE YOU KIDDING ME?"
I did get a cheap thrill out of Briecat on this coast however - (and I do mean cheap as I bet her at 16-1 with less than a minute to post and she hit 10 by the time I returned to my seat! pretty sure I wouldn't have bet her at 10...)
Add me to the list who would like to see them face each other sometime - Personal Ensign V. Winning Colors is, to me, the finest showdown ever, and while something that dramatic is highly unlikely, I'd love for there to be a chance....
Posted by: p ensign on June 28, 2009 at 01:29 AM
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Big Easy Big Chok-
I see your brother Michael did in fact qualify for the second year in a row. I do hope you guys will keep us all posted as we were this past year when it appeared to be a Formblog convention, hopefully other suchs as Alan & perhaps Uncle Steve will get in and again, and join you guys there. It looks like all 9 qualifers have a new favorite horse Big Jerome. I happened to watch that race on TVG today and it a very thrilling race and it was in question right down to the wire.
Posted by: buffalo joe on June 28, 2009 at 03:42 AM
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People-we gotta play nice and stop "bashing" each other. There are people with good information who are leaving. Annie can flat out pick horses, and Steve T turned me on to Gabby's Golden Gal. We haven't seen the Zayatts (someone saw fit to bash them) and Riley Mott went with them as well. (And they'd actually tell you the truth about their horse's chances if you asked them early enough, and if you read carefully you could actualy tell how much of a chance their horse had. Riley's passing along the fact that a mare they were running had been out of training because she was busy breeding, and was coming back to the track in foal gave me a nice "throw out" of a chalk one day which led to some nice gimmix. I went thru it myself-I got word that Old Fashioned was sore at Oaklawn, and published it with the hope that it would help fellow bloggers. (After I posted it he ran 2nd at odds on two races in a row.) Instead of using the information as a handicapping tool, bloggers saw fit to insult me, insult the trainer who gave me the information including making fun of the fact that he was having a tough meet at Oaklawn, etc. (Do you really think next time I get information like this I'll share it?) It went under the heading of "no good deed goes unpunished". So let's PLEASE be careful about rediculing one another and driving away sources of solid information since I thought that one of the main goals of this blog was to assist one another in being better handicappers and hopefully putting more money in our pocket.
Posted by: Stephen Taylor on June 28, 2009 at 06:03 AM
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Stephen Taylor
Just a note thanking you for being able to scroll through all the drivel and continue to post full card analysis on Arlington. Got home in time for race 7 yesterday and sure appreciated you thoughts on Garboso,Greeley's Angel,Rumor Has It and Marvan. Don't let'em get to ya, the silent majority loves reading you posts.
Sincerly
Dennis of Moline
Posted by: Dennis of Moline on June 28, 2009 at 09:21 AM
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Stephen Taylor,
Looks like you had a decent day at AP yesterday. I am thinking you at least had a shot to finish in the top three of the contest. I am guessing you did not play a P6 ticket in the contest, but am hoping you had the last P3 (Inez's win in Race #8 had to really hurt as you had the other three races nailed) and some exotics in the last race. I wish I could have been there because your picks really helped me make some money yesterday (I only wish I would have looked more closely at the #6 in the last race like you suggested and then I would have hit the superfecta). I probabaly will be working all day (big project due on July 3rd), so I am really hoping the P6 at AP carries again so I can play in next week. Great job yesterday and I hope you cashed big.
Midwest Ed
Posted by: Midwest Ed on June 28, 2009 at 09:27 AM
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Stephen Taylor –
If I had anything to do with the reduction of posts from the Zayat camp, it is because they aren't comfortable facing serious criticism. And as far as them telling the truth, Sobhy's (ironically indignant) response when I broke the news about them firing Mott was proven to be anything but.
My criticisms of the Zayat stable have been about stable management, and I have supported those criticisms with clear evidence. I understand why Sobhy and Justin would prefer not to have to deal with criticism, but that, in and of itself, is revealing.
More to the point, you claim that your principal interest is becoming a better handicapper so that you can make more money. Well, I can assure you that looking for tips on unraced two-year-olds is precisely the wrong way to make progress in that direction.
Finally, I can assure you that more than one or two people have learned some important things from my (often critical) contributions, and are better handicappers as a result.
Posted by: tinky on June 28, 2009 at 10:31 AM
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To All
You will never see Zenyatta run against Rachael. Track surface, weight, money, other issues. It just won't happen. Sad to say.
AnneM... I am a big fan of your's.
Calvin L. Carter.. Man can you type. Lot's of info
Walt... Nice win on HG139. Didn't play this week.
P Ensign... I did post my way of doing thing's and I just went back and found out that it never made it to the blog. I will post it again later in the day for all to see. I have been very lucky. I am not looking to start any fight's with anyone because that gets us nowhere. I read this and other blogs to gain knowledge so that I can try to figure out this very tough game. I will fax over to you 2 pick 6 tickets that are copies in good faith. One is for $26K on an $8 wager the other is for $13K on a $16 dollar wager. My Father told me a long time ago, that your word is your bond in life. He passed away 5 years ago and loved to go to Saratoga every summer. I really miss him.
LOL to all today OUT.
Posted by: Whackymacky on June 28, 2009 at 11:57 AM
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Calvin,
It looks like you put in a lot of work!
If you don’t have the book already, you might be interested in reading “Racehorse Breeding Theories” by Frank Mitchell. There is a chapter in the book regarding inbreeding and it includes results of a study done on Thoroughbred inbreeding on one crop. The statistics for horses bred 4X4 and 5X5 had the greatest percentage of stakes winners 3.76% and 3.14%, respectively. It also went on to state that pedigree position ca be important and the 4x4 pattern was most successful; However it was indicated that the quality of the stallions tended to be the best breeding influences (Nasrullah, Princequillo, Hyperion, Nearco). We now see those influences in the 5X5 position and our modern-day influences, such as Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, Secretariat, etc. are now in the 4x4 and 5x5 positions.
Personally when researching a hypomating, I don’t like to see too many sire influences being duplicated top and bottom. If a mare is inbred 3x4, 4x4, 4x5, etc, I would avoid breeding her to a stallion with Mr. P. influences. However, the opposite is true of blue hens, as it has been proven that their effect can be significant. For instance, two of the three top finishers in yesterday’s Debutante Stakes at Churchill were inbred to blue hens. Decelerator has Somethingroyal 4x4 and Kinsolving is inbred to 4x5 to Ballade.
Posted by: Laura on June 28, 2009 at 11:59 AM
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RIP-Terrain
Posted by: Fred on June 28, 2009 at 12:05 PM
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BuffaloeJoe,
Big Jerome was hius key and he had the exacta and pk3s with him as well. I had the 3 but could not get too upset losing by a nose knowing little chok had Big Jerome in contest. Will definitely keep u up to date. There are 2 more win and your in contests coming up later this month so I will try to make it a family gig in vegas.
BigEasyBigChok
Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on June 28, 2009 at 12:55 PM
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Is Hot N Dusty going to run back in the Beverly Hills today? I don't see that the horse was scratched today after finishing fourth to Zenyatta yesterday. Maybe it will be a late scratch?
Posted by: Fred on June 28, 2009 at 01:17 PM
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Dogs are wonderful things.....scroll through if you dislike drivel.......
While taking my dogs out today, I got to meet my two next door neighbors. (Ladies with two funky little dogs usually manage to get into good conversations.) Casually I said that I had observed TVG on through the front windows..... Guess what.....one owns a horse who ran in the BC Juvenile and the other is part owner of a Breeder's Cup race winner, both own and have owned many thoroughbreds.
They also knew exactly who Katie and I were.....they read this blog.
Small world
On to racing.....Katie and I were not profitable yesterday, but the PGH longshots we bet to show, all came in....Thank you SR Vegas
Best of all, Scianc22 met us and has the most beautiful and sweet young daughter. Young male hearts will be breaking all over NJ in about 12 years!
Posted by: turnbackthealarm on June 28, 2009 at 02:03 PM
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Hillbilly,
Katie and I both went Uh-OH as we watched the stretch run of Zenyatta....we didn't think she was going to get there, but were very happy she did. Using strategies learned here, we did do a show bet just in case Zen ran out and Katie had the favorite wheeled with others, however, don't get us started on the teller mistake....bottom line, our ideas were not profitable.
When I read this morning's account of Mike Smith waiting with her deliberately, I rewatched......
Decision: I need a bigger computer screen. But my first impression of the run was worry.
Posted by: turnbackthealarm on June 28, 2009 at 03:08 PM
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A musing on the Golden Rule:
After meeting new neighbors and formblog readers today, it dawned on me....
What if my new acquaintances who are racing enthusiasts and possible passionate conversation partners had been someone to whom I had posted some exceptionally rude comments? I would be both sick and embarrassed. It's a very small world out there......
Posted by: turnbackthealarm on June 28, 2009 at 03:24 PM
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Well, it's good to be back! Had a freak storm cel hit us Friday afternoon in southern Hartford County, (CT), and power was out almost 45 hours until about 2 hours ago. Missed my entries to Colonial Downs Grand Slam of Turf Contest, and also the weekly Public Handicapper contest..bummer.
We actually had what the NWS called a "narrow tornado" rip down the ridge in my town, pulled some branches off the Sugar Maple in front of the house, plastered the 175 year old farmhouse with leaves and debris and hail stones (but no scarring), and proceeded up and over the next hill and into the old town proper where more trees were uprooted and severly damaged.
The state's tallest and fourth tallest pin oaks stood up to the 85-100mph winds though, although a giant copper beach that dated back to colonial times went down on the town green.
Worst, mostly lost porches and a couple of roofs gone in town; and best, but no known injuries.
Still, quite a shocker for staid, old New England.
Posted by: Keith L. on June 28, 2009 at 03:42 PM
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Belmont Race 8
$10 Pick 3
#1,6 / #8,9,10 / #5,6,7,8.
Cost= $240.
Race #8 #200WP #1
LOL All
Posted by: Whackymacky on June 28, 2009 at 04:40 PM
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As for Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta:
Right now, if I owned Delaware Park, I would be on the phone to the connections of both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, offering to TRIPLE the purse of the Delaware Handicap (Grade 2) on July 19 at Delaware Park to $3 million if both start in that. You likely would see the largest crowd in YEARS at Delaware for that if it happened, especially since it would be likely the only time they would meet.
Posted by: Walt on June 28, 2009 at 04:57 PM
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I agree Walt $3 million would be cool in the Del Cap! Maybe they could hire that company from Iowa that has been doing the CD lighting on Friday night s and we could get the race in PRIME TIME!
Posted by: tonykelso on June 28, 2009 at 06:00 PM
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I made a list of angles I use to find overlaid winners. Maybe this will help people out.
Angle plays at 6-1 or Higher Odds:
Speed Figures
Highest career figure in race makeup
Highest career figure at distance
Highest career figure on surface (dirt, grass, all-weather/synthetic)
Pace/Pace Figures
Expected early leader and/or sprint-to-route potential leader
Top middle fraction
Best finisher
Early leader type that chased FAST fractions
Mid-pack or deep closer type that closed into SLOW fractions
Last Race Form
Won last race and moves up
Improved pace and/or speed figures
Much improved post position from last race or last few races
Pedigree
Best bred horse for surface
Best bred horse for distance
Best bred horse for a debut win (ideally with good workouts)
Trainer
“Score trainer”
Trainer “moves” with high R.O.I. and/or high win percentage
Hot trainer cycle
Hot trainer/jockey combination
Historically reliable trainer/jockey combination
Jockey
Switch to leading/top jockey
Leading/top jockey rides a first time starter
Jockey switch
Hot jockey (on the day or short term)
Posted by: tonykelso on June 28, 2009 at 06:02 PM
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My thoughts for Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta:
First, have both Jerry Moss and Jess Jackson agree on the venue (i.e., Belmont, Delaware Park, Saratoga) for the historic match up.
Second, have each (very wealthy) man put up $1 million each -- a extra $2 million which would go to the winner's selected charity.
I gather the historic match up would generate an enormous amount of publicity and if the media played their cards right could be a huge ratings winner.
And to all the naysayers ... one can dream!
- robertSD
Posted by: robertSD on June 28, 2009 at 06:08 PM
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A littel action bet for the late Pick 4 at HOL:
8/1,2/6/3 $2
An "Alan Special".
6th: Like the 8 to hold on here for the win.Favorite is coming off a LONG layoff and the 1 has good works but can't finish.
7th: Both the 1 and 2 are Steve T. works horses who ahve pretty good numbers and should get good trips here.Especially the one who has thrived on switch to cushion.
8th: Like the 6 to upset here by stalking the slow pace of the 4, and pass her late.
9th:strictly going with the J/TR angle here. Will be interesting if I'm live at this point.
Posted by: cayman01 on June 28, 2009 at 06:34 PM
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Hollywood late pick 4, there appear to be four straight vulnerable favorites.
Will play a pick 4 using the following runners:
6: Sweeterthantheday
7: Supermodel
8: Toque de Queda
9: Justinplace, Anziyan's Song & Watch Over Me
Posted by: Scott on June 28, 2009 at 06:37 PM
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When asked, Craig Dollase thought his R6 runner Bonifacio would want more ground though give a good account of herself -- didn't seem a ringing endorsement so I dropped her off my Pick-4 ticket.
Of course, she just won with much trouble at a solid $30.80. I should know better than to listen to a trainer talk about his first timer on TVG. I can only hope the rest of my ticket loses along the way or today will be not be much fun.
robertSD
Posted by: robertSD on June 28, 2009 at 06:52 PM
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Of course, I would have caught the rest of my Pick-4 ticket. As I have said many a time go with your first instinct but instead I over-thought my bet. Cost me a payoff of about $450 -- could of used those extra dollars. Some day I will learn.
- robertSD
Posted by: robertSD on June 28, 2009 at 08:59 PM
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Whackymacky,
Copy and past definitely helps.
Laura,
Thanks for the information on the book “Racehorse Breeding Theories.” When I get some money I’ll have to get a copy.
I did look the book up at Google Books on line and read the chapter about inbreeding.
There is a lot of good information in that chapter but one paragraph grabbed my attention:
“In a recent telephone conversation, David Dink noted that “as far as inbreeding goes, the most obvious case for this sort of logic is Northern Dancer. He is extremely popular in the third generation of the male line and as the sire of the broodmare sire, which results in 3x3 inbreeding.” Both of the positions are male-line positions, and Northern Dancer was exceptionally successful as a sire of stallions, and many of his grandsons and granddaughters have been mated to produce the 3x3 cross.”
The 3x3 cross is the same breeding pattern used for Big Brown.
Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on June 28, 2009 at 09:02 PM
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Little Chok
If you are reading:
CONGRATULATIONS! See you in LV 2010. With a bit of luck and an abundance of skill The Big Brother will be playing along side you, too.
Good Luck BigEasyBigChok!
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 28, 2009 at 09:24 PM
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Well, a day out on the lake can often bring a little perspective on things.
I think we all should take a deep breath and try to remember what made us a community, not just another restricted forum. A place where everyone is welcome and no one has to feel uncomfortable about making a post.
I see no reason why we can't strike a balance that will satisfy everyone. A community is made up of very diverse individuals, but in this case we all have one thing in common, a love of horseracing.
And, that is where our primary focus has always been.
But, we should be able to have fun on here as well.
TBTA's post about her and Katie meeting up with Scianc this weekend, and her discovery of neighbors who also read this blog, made me think about that "dream reunion" of formbloggers that we used to talk about. I am absolutely certain that many of the recent comments that have been made would never be said if we were face to face with the other person. I think we should keep that in mind.
Words are usually the culprits in starting many "mini wars", and this was the case in this one as well. Steve T's initial post was a relatively mild admonition for a little restraint. However, the use of the word, "annoying", is almost certain to push some buttons. And, because Steve is a very respected member of this blog, his words unfortunately opened the floodgates for some less mild comments and things escalated from there.
I would love to see the Formblog Planet a happy place again; and I'm sure there are many others who feel the same.
Annie
Posted by: Annie on June 28, 2009 at 09:29 PM
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tony kelso
Thanks for your list of angles on overlays. It's good information to keep. I seem to copy and paste alot of your notes, as I do Steve T's.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 28, 2009 at 09:32 PM
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Tony Kelso,
Excellent "angles" list! Should be very helpful to all of us, as usually when we lose a bet it's because we missed something that could have pointed us in the right direction. This will make a nice "checklist". Thanks.
Keith L,
Well, that can't have been pleasant. Glad everything turned out okay for you, and welcome back.
Annie
Posted by: Annie on June 28, 2009 at 10:29 PM
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PGM School/ROTD
After two umplayable races this weekend we can get back to a handicappable race on Monday at my dearly departed uncle's favorite track: Finger Lakes
1)IDON'TLIKEANYONE has put together back to back career best and worst....in the span of two weeks. Which horse do we get today? shortening up and return to favorite track should help, but she hasn't found the winner's circle this year and isn't likely today. Under only.
2)INSTANT LADY, has rundecently of late but just not fast enough to compete with the best of these.Never out of the super at FL but she's not really excited about passing horses and she'll have to today to compete. Siding against.
3)WESTERN LARIAT, second fav on ML has BSF's of 14,31,50 in last three. Hey , at least they're going in the right direction. Has broken the magic 60 barrier exactly once in her career, but I keep coming back to her. She showed an ability to stalk in last which could be key here
and maybe she's coming up to a peak performance. Interesting.
4)JOVANNA, class of field should stalk the cheap speed and win for fun here. Gets the best local jock, nice pace setup and we'll be lucky to get 1-1 on her by post time.
5)CITRINE, speed of the speed will be flying early and probably backing up late. She could forget to stop so she'll be a saver bet at the least.
6)SALT CITY MISS, big step up in class and step down in jockey makes this one hard to like.Ability to stalk is nice because the lead will not be there for her. I just don't like Yang. under.
7)ROCKIN SARAH, queen of the pop and stop will do an oncore here. Pass.
8)QUIXOTIC LASSIE, great form this year but faces toughest bunch yet. Closing style should make him prominent in the lane. Should get clear run for the top. Playable.
$25 EX 4/3,5,8
$25 W 5
Posted by: cayman01 on June 28, 2009 at 10:59 PM
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Dan,
Could you please post Stormy Pick's PPs?
Thanks
Posted by: Brian on June 29, 2009 at 12:12 AM
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Folks:
I only wasted about $25 on Hollywood today, playing the 4th, 6th, 7th, and 9th races. I was so close, but cashed not one ticket! I played it to keep sharp, and I thought I had a few good bombs (I did, but the others failed!).
I hate days like this, but fortunately no "real" money was lost.
As for the tone of Planet FormBlog lately, understand that these things happen, and we all eventually get through it. I received a nice reply back from Uncle Steve on Friday, and he is fine, but suffering from frustrations. It's all a part of the natural progression of things. Familiarity breeds something sometimes, no?
I am very close to my brothers and sister, but sometimes we are world-class awful to each other. It happens.
It may be, in fact, necessary. It makes us better and stronger, I believe. And so is the outcry and criticism from people that don’t want to read (or hear) about it.
This is a great place, and we all continue to learn, and grow. Actually, it's a microcosm of life, really. Only much better, no?
Calvin Carter;
I love your site, and tried to register to post, but encountered significant difficulty. Email me with your help!
Thanks
VS
Posted by: Van Savant on June 29, 2009 at 12:17 AM
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Calvin,
It was a cold night in Jan. of 2004 when I discovered Pedigree Query. Just started looking at many good runners off the top of my head. Well this is what really spurred my interest and continued study of bloodlines.
It came to light very quickly that inbreeding, or it appeared that way to me was paramount in producing a stakes winner. One doesn't have to dig very deeply to see Princequillo, Nasrullah, and Raise A Native at least twice in many good runners. With that said, I don't think there is any exact science or formula that one can take to the bank concerning inbreeding.
On the list you posted, three (Secretariat, War Admiral, and Cigar) have no inbreeding in thier first 5 generations. For me and I would think most would have those three at least in their top ten of all time greats. Conversely, and while those three ran several years ago and all were males lets move forward to the two hot fillys in the US today. Zenyatta is 5x5 Nashua, Rachel Alexandra is 4x4 to Northern Dancer and lets throw in the best filly last year in Zarkava, she is 4x5 Northern Dancer.
What does any of this mean? On the surface with those examples it would appear that you are more likely to get a superstar in a filly with inbreeding. In reality each is to small of an example to come to any conclusion but, to those of us that enjoy the bloodline aspect of the sport-is one more equasion to consider.
Lauren Stich is in New York taking care of last rights for a dear friend. She is supposed to call me next Sat. when she gets home. I will bring this thought up, in a generic way with her. Will be intersted in her answer as you well know about her belief in the RF factor.
Posted by: johnnyz on June 29, 2009 at 01:06 AM
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Calvin Carter
I have book marked your site... I like your Bio and picture. Finally, a face to your name. BIG SMILE!
I look forward to more information that you provide. Thanks for more information.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 29, 2009 at 01:47 AM
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Annie
Let's join hands & sing..Koombahla my Lord, Koombahla..No, no!
No disrespect here..
Really, I think we all CAN get together and be happy in this Dan Illman Formblog.
AND..Your thoughts are very well taken.
BUT Dang! I wish I could have been at Monmouth when Katie & TBTA won on those longshot PGH show tickets! Wheeee!
BTW.. Annie, if you come back, I'll try to take a stab at the HandiG races again.
ME? I know I'm a novice, but willing to learn from all.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 29, 2009 at 01:59 AM
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"RIP-Terrain"
Posted by: Fred on June 28, 2009 at 12:05 PM
Fred, I agree, He was on my 2 yo watch list.
And I watched and hoped for a for a promising career.
I am sorry to see this happen.
Laura...he was your original MKB horse, may he RIP.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 29, 2009 at 02:13 AM
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Johnny Z
I also know the feeling when discovering Pedigree.com..lol!
(kid in a candy shop?)I was using it for 2 yo maidens.
Also, Thank you for the note on Lauren.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 29, 2009 at 02:38 AM
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Inbreeding.....In Australia everyone is inbred to Northern Dancer, Danzig, Danehill, etc., and they seem to have done quite well!
Posted by: tonykelso on June 29, 2009 at 02:49 AM
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Tinky-I honestly wasn't thinking of you in mentioning the Zayatt's-C had mentioned that they had been gone for awhile and I know that they'd given me some useful information in the past. I'm not big on people who haven't put their money up telling owners how to manage their stable but that's just my opinion. If I feel stables are entering horses in the wrong spot I'd rather just not use the horse.
Since I've been "harsh" on CDI management in the past, do want to thank them for offering horsemen a tent with hamburger, hot dogs, and the trimming for Friday's races/fireworks show. Until we FINALLY get our money that the casinos are trying so hard to withold from us there aren't alot of owners making money in Illinois. (Remember when Calabrese and "Cat" had their falling out, he claimed to be loosing booku bucks) I will say at Arlington they do, for the most part, treat us well (They've set up a horsemen's lounge with leather furniture, computers, flat screens, etc.) To be honest that, along with the other people in our group and the potential thrill of "my horse" winning keep me going even though it's not a profitable investment so far.
Well, the horse we were trying to avoid Saturday with Tatum Girl (my best bet, Tea Lak-sorry to anyone who listened) didn't run a lick and the horse who won we'd beaten fairly soundly and the 14K we were going to run in Wednesday didn't go so we're trying 18K at 6f on Friday. The good news is that we caught a 6 horse field (Handicappers hate short fields-horsemen love 'em!)and Tatum beat the horse who will probably be the first or second choice in the wagering at Hawthorne in March. Hoping the girl will bring her running shoes because right now I feel like a goof for talking Mike out of running last Saturday.
Trippit runs Thursday (what a weekend-racetrack Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday! even though Arlington is only 1/2 hour away I'm getting a room-it's a tradition) and as usual he looks like he has a big shot to win. The trouble is that he's 1 for 25! He's sound, he has a little bit of talent, but for some reason he doesn't win races. (He's the kind of horse who will be helped by an influx of casino money since he usually gets a check-those "also ran" checks going up will be a big help to us)
Posted by: Stephen L Taylor on June 29, 2009 at 07:31 AM
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Van Savant, johnnyz, SR Vegas,
Thanks for following the blog. I appreciate that!
Johnnyz I'm sorry to hear about Lauren Stich's recent loss. I look foward to her response to your question about inbreeding.
Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on June 29, 2009 at 09:25 AM
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Rachel v. Zenyatta:
If this matchup is going to happen the best time and place for it will be at Saratoga in the Go For Wand Stakes on August 2.. I know Shirrefs has said that Z's next start will be at Del Mar. If he has his way Z won't leave California. Certainly, the closer we get to the Breeders Cup the less likely that Z ships out. Jerry Moss needs to put his foot down and make this happen now.
Why the Go For Wand?
1. It's 1 1/8 miles, the best distance for both.
2. Perfect spacing between races.
3. Belmont is a one turn 1 1/16 or 1 1/8. I don't think Z wants to face RA running one turn.
4. Jerry Moss is a New Yorker - I don't think he wants to come east and go to Delaware.
5. This historic matchup should take place at Saratoga - one of the most historic tracks in the world.
It's also Haskell day so NYRA would have the added bonus of taking the focus away from Monmouth.
The purse is only $300,000, so NYRA needs to step up and either triple the purse, or add to the conditions of the race that winners of a grade 1 in the last 3 months (or on June 27) receive a $500,000 bonus for winning the race.
I know NYRA is loathe to do this, but if they need help raising the cash, since we already have the Yum Brands Kentucky Derby how about
"ESPN/TVG/NBC presents the
VERIZON/BUDWEISER/GOODYEAR" Go For Wand Stakes at Saratoga sponsored locally by THE ALBANY TIMES UNION/CAPITAL OTB/THE SARATOGA COURTYARD BY MARRIOTT."
You get the idea. C'mon NYRA, make this happen.
Posted by: CM on June 29, 2009 at 10:02 AM
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Thanks to the well wishers.
Amazingly enough, this morning's Hartford Courant with followup articles on the "narrow tornado" provided the details that the National Weather Service determined that the funnel first touched down on "Nott Street, near Park Avenue intersection." Its a familiar landmark, as our old farmhouse is on the northwest corner of Nott and Park Avenue. Traveled a 1.7 mile southeasterly direction, missing the town hall, but hitting the old colonial district town green directly.
Then, after tearing through a corn field, dissapated before it reached I-91 with its heavy end of day rush hour traffic.
Still, no reports of injuries or worse...lots more of property damage, however.
As my second tornado experience, it didn't seem as threatening as the hurricanes we sometimes get in New England. The first tornado I experienced was when tent camping with my kids in Southeastern Massachusetts in the late 70's. Now that was hairy! Only shelter was the big Chevy Malibu station wagon then, and a whole state forest around us of clouds of flying leaves and tree limbs snapping like twigs!
But onward and upward. Still cleaning up today in the aftermath! Back to horse racing tomorrow, I hope.
Posted by: Keith L. on June 29, 2009 at 10:24 AM
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Zenyatta HAS left California already this year. She shipped to run at Churchill but scratched because of the sloppy track. So I don't know how anyone can be totally convinced John Shirrefs is so adverse to shipping.
Posted by: jim tully on June 29, 2009 at 10:27 AM
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A few reasons I thought of Delaware Park for a Rachel-Zenyatta showdown:
While a Grade 2 now, the DelCap, even without any purse enhancement is the richest non-BC race in the sport for females at $1 Million.
The DelCap also has a very long history and has been won in the past by a number of top females, including Shuvee (part of the exceptional class of 1969 that may have been the greatest crop of three year old fillies in history).
The DelCap is also at the classic distance of 1 1/4 Miles, and is one of the few major stakes for females run at that distance. It would be a true test for both RA and Zenyatta.
Short of that, I actually sent a "snail mail" to Philadelphia Park management this past Saturday suggesting they work out a deal with Magna to have the Pimlico Special (Grade 1) that was cancelled by Magna due to their financial problems transferred to Philly Park for at least this year, running it on October 11 as an invitational at the race's traditional 1 3/16 Mile distance. My suggestion there was to have a running of the Pimlico Special at Philadelphia Park carry a base purse of $1 Million, but if four or more past winners of Triple Crown or Breeders' Cup races were to start, the purse would be increased to $3 million (the conditions basically would be to also get Mine That Bird and Summer Bird as well as Zenyatta).
I don't see an RA-Zenyatta showdown happening at Saratoga mainly because of the detention barn.
Posted by: Walt on June 29, 2009 at 11:37 AM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 