January 2010
| Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | |||||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
| 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
| 31 |
FormBlog | June 29, 2009
Rachel vs. Zenyatta?
Like a large locomotive slowly building momentum, Zenyatta crept up to the leaders entering the far turn of Saturday's Vanity Handicap. Despite her undefeated record and 3-10 post time odds, one could feel the tension in the steamy simulcast facility.
"She's too far behind," exclaimed one punter.
"She doesn't look comfortable," chimed in another.
"What's Smith waiting for?" asked one more worried fan.
The concern was contagious. For a moment, no one spoke. Then, Zenyatta did the talking. If Mike Smith was a conductor on the big train, he would have blasted the horn. Zenyatta dropped her massive head, and picked up steam. For the eleventh straight time, she circled her foes, and then passed them with a minimum of fuss. For the eleventh straight time, she crossed the wire in front. For the eleventh straight time, she returned to the winner's circle to bask in the wild cheers of her home crowd.
Less than thirty minutes earlier, and 3,000 miles to the East, the main challenger to Zenyatta's claim as best horse in North America, Rachel Alexandra, absolutely crushed two overmatched foes in the historic Mother Goose Stakes. Rachel is younger, more tactical, and arguably more exciting than Zenyatta. She's frenzied dance music to Zenyatta's classic rock. Different strokes for different folks, but true aficionados enjoy the best of both genres.
Rachel Alexandra won the Mother Goose by 19 1/4 lengths. A remarkable feat to be sure, but the margin of victory still fell a length shy to her amazing performance in the Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday in May. Rachel Alexandra has won her last three starts by a combined 40 1/2 lengths. The combined margin of all eleven of Zenyatta's wins stands at 26.
They are two of the best thoroughbreds we've seen in recent years, and they couldn't be more different. Zenyatta likes to lope along at the back of the pack, and doesn't kick into gear until the final three-eighths of a mile. She has won on dirt, but is the poster girl for synthetic racing.
Rachel Alexandra likes to be near the action from the opening bell. Sure, she "rated" in the Mother Goose, but only because her opponents engaged in cutthroat fractions in front of her. No doubt, Rachel likes to hear her feet rattle, and she can keep that pace up for a long time. Plus, she earned her reputation by beating the best males of her year in the Preakness Stakes, the second jewel of racing's hallowed Triple Crown.
Will they ever meet? The odds are against it. Racehorses are fragile creatures. One misstep in the stall can cause a multiple-month respite from competition. Zenyatta will likely retire at the end of the year. Rachel's connections won't ship to Zenyatta's home base to run on a synthetic surface. But, if they do. If they do. It would be the battle racing fans, denied a Big Brown vs. Curlin clash last fall, have demanded for years. There's nothing like star power to sell a heavyweight bout. Zenyatta vs. Rachel? A racing fan can dream.
So, who would you take?
***
Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:
*Mother Goose (Bel): Rachel Alexandra (S. Asmussen/C. Borel) - 111
*Prairie Meadows Cornhusker (PrM): Jonesboro (R. Morse/M. Berry) - 109
*King Edward (WO): Rahy's Attorney (I. Black/S. Callaghan) - 106
*Iowa Sprint (PrM): EZ Dreamer (R. Owens/G. Corbett) - 105
*Fratello Ed (Bel): Wishful Tomcat (R. Dutrow Jr./R. Dominguez) - 105
*Vanity (Hol): Zenyatta (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith) - 104
*Donald LeVine Memorial (Pha): Kodiak Kowboy (J. Jones/G. Saez) - 102
*Primal (Crc): Motovato (M. Wolfson/J. Bridgmohan) - 102
*Iowa Derby (PrM): Duke of Mischief (D. Fawkes/E. Coa) - 98
*Iowa Distaff (PrM): Euphony (M. Berry/D. Von Hemel) - 97
*Beverly Hills (HOl): Black Mamba - NZ (J. Sadler/G. Gomez) - 96
*Pink Ribbon Invitational (Stk): Carbonite (D. Patterson/C. Schvaneveldt) - 95
*Saylorville (PrM): Lady Chace (S. Margolis/T. Thompson) - 93
*Indiana Live! Casino (Ind): Meadow Saffron (F. Seitz/L. Goncalves) - 93
*Tacoma (EmD): Winning Machine (D. Harwood/R. Frazier) - 93
*Polar Expedition (AP): Rumor Has It (D. Hinsley/E. Perez) - 92
*Sabellina (Bel): Nehantic Kat (B. Tagg/R. Maragh) - 91
*San Juan County Commissioners (SRP): Black Hills (B. Hone/C. Martinez) - 90
*Boiling Springs (Mth): Mary's Follies (J. Forbes/S. Elliott) - 90
*My Dear (WO): Midst (M. Casse/P. Husbands) - 90
*Perfect Sting (Bel): Dame Ellen (C. Brown/J. Lezcano) - 89
*Da Hoss (Cnl): Izzy Speaking (H. Smith/R. Homeister Jr.) - 87
*Minnesota H.P.B.A Mile (Cby): Mizzcan'tbewrong (R. Scherer/P. Nolan) - 87
*First Flight (Bel): Porte Bonheur (D. Duggan/R. Dominguez) - 87
*Muscogee (Creek) Nation (FMT): Waterloo Slew (J. Offolter/F. Wethey Jr.) - 84
*Crank It Up (Mth): Girlfrienontheside (A. Dutrow/C. Lopez) - 82
*Iowa Oaks (PrM): Hightap (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan) - 82
*Sweepida Invitational (Stk): Kaweah Princess (J. Hollendorfer/W. Antongeorgi III) - 82
*Lulu's Ransom (Crc): Many Kisses (D. Fawkes/J. Sanchez) - 81
*Rise Jim (Suf): No More Goodbyes (B. McCarthy/Y. Rosario) - 81
*Debutante (CD): Decelerator (D. Lukas/J. Leparoux) - 80
*Fronteir Trophy Buckles Allowance (SRP): Stormy Express (J. Claridge/A. Cruz) - 78
*Sierra Blanca (Rui): Gulchrunssweet (B. Hone/Q. Bui) - 77
*Dine (SRP): Lefty Who (J. Marr/C. Madeira) - 76
*Lone Star Oaks (LS): My Spanx (A. Milligan/M. Escobar) - 75
*Bison City (WO): Dance for Us (B. Minshall/C. Sutherland) - 74
*Chariot Chaser (NP): Dandy Dora (G. Tracy/R. Walcott) - 72
*Kansas Bred Sunflower (Eur): Manovan (J. Thomas/S. Whittle) - 65
*Larkspur (Pnl): Yawm Estoora (R. Inman/A. Stanley) - 64
*Cincinnatian (RD): Gathering Dreams (J. Shuman/C. Pilares) - 62
*Hazel Wright Sire (AsD): Premier Star (T. Lindsay/C. Marquez) - 61
*Sophomore Sprint (MD): J C's Action (R. Gardipy/S. Rodrigo) - 60
*Manhattan (Eur): Talk and Sing (K. Hurley/S. Whittle) - 60
*Yavapai County Arizona Breeders Futurity (Yav): Napili Point (T. Bartol/M. Hernandez) - 54
*Ruffian (ArP): Jilly Bean Queen (F. Christoffersen/T. Wales) - 47
*Totah (SRP): Quinton's Place (T. Fincher/J. Bourdieu) - 47
*State Fair Futurity (Lnn): Lou Lou Larue (D. Anderson/D. Leeds) - 39
*M D Ambulance (MD): Joan Kardoo (R. Tourangeau/A. Wright) - 35
Here are the lifetime past performances of the highest and lowest Beyer stakes performers of the week:
***
Does anyone know what happened to Bob Black Jack?
He won a Grade 1 sprint at the end of the year. Then he apparently had some undisclosed injury. Has he been retired? Is he going to race again?
Anne M
Bob Black Jack suffered a leg injury after winning the Malibu on December 26. His trainer, Jim Kasparoff, has targeted the end of 2009 for the colt's return to the races. You can follow Bob Black Jack's progress on the FormBlog Disabled List located on the right side of the page.
***
Mr. Illman,
Why are the times at Ascot so slow? The track record for a mile is 1:38 and change. The 1 1/2 miles record is 2:27.24. Also Ghanaati broke Henrythenavigator's 1m track record. Henry ran very well in the B.C. Classic last year. Is Ghanaati a B.C. Classic contender. Also, given the slow times at Ascot, are shorter distances over their equal to longer distances in the U.S.? For example is a 6f race at Ascot just as taxing as a 1m race in the U.S.? If so could a horse like Cannonball be a good miler in the U.S. and Ghanaati good at 1 1/4 miles in the U.S.?
Captain Bodgit
Ghanaati holds the track record for the right-handed mile at Ascot (1:38.32). That is slow compared to racetracks like Doncaster (1:34.46) Newmarket (1:34.07), and Goodwood (1:35.61).
Alan Shuback's book, Global Racing, is a must-read for fans interested in European form. In his chapter on Ascot, Shuback writes, "One-mile races are run on both the right-handed course (the Old Mile) and the straight course. Those run over the Old Mile (St. James's Palace Stakes, Coronation Stakes, Queen Elizabeth II Stakes) start from a chute at Swinley Bottom and are entirely uphill until the eighth pole. Straight miles (Queen Anne Stakes, Royal Hunt Cup) are mildly undulating until reaching the head of the stretch."
Shuback notes that Doncaster is "virtually level," and that may account for the faster mile time there.
Combine the uphill nature of the Ascot course with the often rain-soaked ground and the European style of holding up horses until the important final furlongs, and the times are simply going to be slower than what we're used to in America.
Due to the stamina-building nature of many European courses, some horses can be expected to stretch their stamina a quarter of a mile or so longer than their best distance in Europe. We saw that with Raven's Pass, a strong miler in Europe, in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic.
***
Dan - curious what you think of the Queen's Plate winner Eye of The Leopord. He has the breeding and is lightly raced. Seems to be more of a plodder than anything - but Frostad is convinced he'll move up on dirt. It's been a while since a Canadian bred has done anything state-side in the big route races. Thoughts? And what ever happened to Harlam Rocker?
magicstrife
You have to love his pedigree as he's a son of the great A.P. Indy out of Selene Stakes and Woodbine Oaks winner Eye of the Sphinx. He's a lightly-raced runner with plenty of upside potential, but he's still a bit too green for my liking. I think he'll make a very nice horse at the end of the year, and with the handicap ranks virtually depleted in the United States, it will be interesting to see if Mr. Frostad decides to ship here for the big races in the fall. If he does, you do have to wonder if the demanding Canadian Triple Crown series will take some of the starch out of him. I'd like to see him compete in some nice stakes races next year at Fair Grounds as he has the look of a horse that will continue to improve with added maturity.
Harlem Rocker reportedly got sick earlier this year. The original plan was to get him back in training by the summer, but he hasn't registered a workout since January. He is on our disabled list on the right-hand side of the blog.
***
Dan,
Could you please post Stormy Pick's PPs?
Thanks
Brian
Here they are:
***
Congrats to Walt for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling endeavor. He selects the fourth race from Penn National on Wednesday for this week's exercise. Here are the past performances:
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
***
Take care,
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on June 29, 2009 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/51442/zenyatta-rachel--duel-unlikely-before-bc
So, it's more or less official. The greatest matchup of superstars we've seen in a very long time is "unlikely".
This is a damn travesty.
One can wait a decade or more, if not a lifetime to see a horse as good as either one of these. Rachel is said to be "the best since Ruffian", by people who know their stuff. Zenyatta is the most amazing specimen I have ever seen on four legs. This is a matchup that absolutely SHOULD happen. At least once!
But it looks unlikely. Why? Ahhh because one owner has a grudge against running a horse on a surface that he believes cost his other great horse a second Classic win. And the other owner has a thing against detention barns, because he believes it cost his Derby winner a Belmont victory.
Is this insanity!??
I guess it is just symbolic of these extremely disappointing times we live in. As bad and depressing as EVERYTHING else is, this is a race that could take people away... Take them, if only for the minutes of the race, to another world. A world where dreams come true and debates about greatness are settled by actual matchups. Not excuses and explanations to avoid them.
Posted by: Calibob on June 29, 2009 at 07:52 PM
-->
HG 140
$50 EXBOX 4/12
4-Preacher-first time for a tag. 12-Cicata Sunrise-1st time lasix. (Lots of races to handicap at Arlington this week-be at the track Thursday Friday Saturday and Sunday so I didn't put a lot of time into this race BUT sometimes the KISS method works the best)
Posted by: Stephen L. Taylor on June 29, 2009 at 08:30 PM
-->
re: Rachel/Zenyatta non-race
I agree that it brings into serious question the sportsmanship of their respective owners.
Were they to race at 9f., I don't see, all things being equal, how Zenyatta would have much of a chance to win. Rachel has superior tactical speed, a quicker acceleration, and would get a serious first run on Zenyatta.
Ironically, Zenyatta's best chance of beating Rachel would probably be at Belmont, as the latter's superior athleticism (giving her an edge around tighter turns) would be nullified.
Posted by: tinky on June 29, 2009 at 08:40 PM
-->
Jess Jackson is the reason we may not see Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra hook up. I want everyone to realize that if RA had not been bought by Jackson she would be running against Zenyatta in the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic. Rachels previous owners didn't want to run against boys but they would run her on synthetics. It is Jackson's fault these two aren't going to race. The best meet in the Breeders Cup. Period. No excuses. It's the championship of the sport. Shame on Jackson for ruining this match-up. He hasn't even been in the game that long and he thinks he's going to change things. I think he's scared of Zenyatta myself.
Posted by: Captain Bodgit on June 29, 2009 at 09:06 PM
-->
We need Vodka to show up for the BC Ladies Classic against Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. That would be one for the ages.
Posted by: Captain Bodgit on June 29, 2009 at 09:11 PM
-->
Captain Bogit - What's would have been so great about seeing these two in the Distaff (Speaking of teriible "new" things - Ladies Classic, gag. Fillies are not ladies not are stallions or geldings gentlemen for that matter.) These two are likely the best in training and should have met in the big dance - the Classic.
I wouldn't run RA on synthetics. Yes, she won on one synthetic surface but how serious was her competition. Synthetics are not typically kind to runners of her style an that's why I personally dislike them. Much like turf, synthetics in my opinion favor closers.
Posted by: Lawduck07 on June 29, 2009 at 09:18 PM
-->
PGM School/ ROTD
Today's main choice scratched so we got a doughnut for the day.I had mentioned that FL was my Uncle's favorite track before he passed. He was a numbers player, and surprise surprise his favorite tri combo came out 2-8-1.Guess he was sending me a message.
Tuesday Philly Park:
1)PROMULGATION, been handed around jockeys like $2 hooker. Still she has been a consistent performer and figures prominently against these. Should be moving late to cash a check.
2)INDY'S SONATA, ML favorite could be vulnerable here. She looks a bit short with only one published work. But this isn't the top flight she's in against either. First turf try should have her rolling at the end.
3)SARDINIAN SOIREE, toss the two subpar wet efforts and she's won three in a row. Another turf firster figures to be wheeling it on the front end. tenacious with the lead but don't know if she's fast enough for these. Siding elsewhere....maybe.
4)DR JESS JR, pretty consistent under horse, hitting the bottom two slots in the super for 12 consecutive races. Moves to the junior circuit here and could move up significantly second off layoff. If he fires his regular mid to upper 70's BSF here he's a win candidate.
5)FLIRTING GLANCES, broke maiden on weeds but hasn't repeated success since. Hard to like in this spot. Pass.
6)GLORIOUS SMILE, multiple stakes winner at two comes back off a long layoff, and tries turf for first time. I'm thinking connections are looking down the road with this one and are just getting a race in her.Still, her early speed is much better than anybody else in here and could carry her home on the front end. 6-1 is very enticing on her too.
7)DIXIE QUEEN, stalker should get good position to challenge frontrunners in the lane. problem is she just doesn't like to win. a classic Illman Chandelier type should find a spot in the super.
8)SMART TRADE, Clemente ships one to the minors. She won maiden, hit the bench, came back flat. Clemente deadly second off layoff and turnbacks. Might see her flying late.
9)PFULLENDORF, tactical horse can run any kind of race. Frontrunner to cloud closer it doesn't matter. What does matter is she doesn't do it all that quickly. Pass.
10)SUMMER AT SUSAN'S, I'll give her a pass on last out. she didn't care for slop or dirt. She's a weeds girl and trainer can light up the board on distance cutbacks. Third off layoff could stalk her way into a nice score at boxcars.
The Play:
I don't have a good feel for this one. Lots of horses I kind of like, nobody stands out. will take a shot with the 10 and hope for the best.
$20 WP 10
$20 EX Box 6/10
$2 TRI KEY 6,10/6,10/1,2,4,7,8
Posted by: cayman01 on June 29, 2009 at 10:01 PM
-->
Tinky,
Will wonders never cease! I agree with you 100% regarding RA and Zenyatta. By the way, didn’t you mention at the beginning of this month that you were attending Ascot? How was the trip?
Captain Bodgit,
It would be great to see Vodka against the other two fillies. However, I can’t place the blame totally on Jess Jackson for not taking RA to the BC Distaff. He’s been unwavering in his comments regarding the synthetic tracks and refusing to run RA over them, but Jerry Moss, the owner of Zenyatta, seems to be having fun wagging his jaw and contradicting his previous interviews.
Right after the two fillies won their respective races on Saturday, Jerry Moss was quoted in Bloodhorse regarding a matchup with RA:
“He owns a great filly,” Moss said. “She won very easily today. I’m not too crazy about the synthetic tracks either. I don’t mind him talking up about that, maybe it will serve a purpose. And hopefully we will meet somewhere. If not the Breeders’ Cup, maybe it will be somewhere else. I think time will tell on something like that and we will go from there.”
Suddenly, two days later (today’s latest bout of hot air), Moss changes his mind about RA and Zenyatta meeting up at the fabled “somewhere else,” and insisted that Zenyatta would continue towards the Breeder’s Cup and not leave California. Now he says, “We may run against the boys at some point, and we’re open to meeting Rachel Alexandra perhaps after the Breeders’ Cup.”
Mr. Moss has stated repeatedly that he is against running Zenyatta against colts and that she will be retired at the end of this year. I think it highly unlikely that he would consider keeping her in training after the Breeder’s Cup to run again out of state against RA. In his statement on Saturday, Moss mentioned shooing for Personal Ensign’s 13 – race record. Does he also remember that Personal Ensign faced all comers and wasn’t afraid to travel to meet the competition?
It’s a total shame that two giant egos can’t put aside their own agendas and realize at their level, they are representatives of the sport of horse racing. They should rise from the “business level” of decision making and make it about the horses, not their reputations. Have you ever noticed that when an owner doesn’t want to face the competition or is afraid of putting their horse’s reputation on the line, that they chicken out behind the overused cliché, “for the good of the horse?”
After all, we’re talking about two fillies who will become broodmares. Unlike potential stallions, the fillies’ status in the breeding shed isn’t at stake. No matter whom the fillies are bred to, their reputation on the racetrack has already insured their value.
Posted by: Laura on June 29, 2009 at 10:19 PM
-->
Re: Big Z vs. RA
These two remind me of 1988 with Personal Ensign (the undefeated, older, closer) and Winning Colors (the 3yr old, classic winner, front-runner). Big Z should be headed to the boys in the Classic (a la Azeri), and Jackson must have doubts RA could handle the synthetic, the long season, rabbits, older males, euro-milers, and also Big Z on her home court. They could meet in the Ladies' Classic on Friday, if it were primetime east-coast time and the purse was increased to that of the Classic. Maybe some southern dirt track could come up with a match race Thanksgiving Weekend. The distance should be 9.5F, but I'd take Z at 9F at FG.
Posted by: cat thief on June 29, 2009 at 10:37 PM
-->
HG 140:
$100 to win #2
Full analysis to follow.
Annie
Posted by: Annie on June 29, 2009 at 10:46 PM
-->
hg 140
100 cold ex 9-2
gd lk
Posted by: jerrry on June 29, 2009 at 10:49 PM
-->
RE; Euro 1 mile times . Do they also use runups to begin timing or is it timed out of the gate ?
Posted by: peewee on June 29, 2009 at 11:30 PM
-->
RE: Rachel vs. Zenyatta
I completely agree with Tinky's post on this topic so I don't need to be redundant but I'll just emphasize what a significant relative advantage Rachel's superior tactical speed is! Given that Rachel can rate kindly, I don't think there is a filly or mare that can beat her at her best... I'd like to see her take the Haskell and then think about older males in the fall at Belmont...
I can't blame either Jackson or Moss for their chosen plans. Jackson clearly is a sportsman and doesn't back down from challenges (see the Preakness) but that doesn't mean that he should put his filly on a different surface just because it's the Breeder's Cup... Frankly, the Breeder's Cup has lost a lot of status in my mind! And, from Moss' perspective, why not stay out there and dominate and take the Breeder's Cup Distaff for a 2nd year in a row... This unfortunate scenario is not the fault of these owners and appropriately can be pinned on the Breeder's Cup in particular and the sport in general...
Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on June 29, 2009 at 11:31 PM
-->
What about Ghanaati. . . ???
Posted by: Kat on June 30, 2009 at 12:05 AM
-->
Hmmmmm?
...A owner who wants to keep their horse on a familiar surface, surroundings, and in her class. Where have we heard this before?
My Horse notes:
"Peppers Pride..History! 19 wins & undefeated. 6 yo mare, 2008 fall/Retired to be bred to Tiznow. New Mexico bred."
Whatever the reasoning, one does what one thinks best.
...I won't debate the obvious comparisons to the Grade of/ Class of/ or general race conditions of what we are talking about with RA (yikes' Preakness here!)
& Madame Z with a perfect 11 race record.
Still, 19 races with 19 wins is a record of it's own.
SR Vegas
BTW...Tiza' Pepper would be my favorite name for a foal. he-he-he
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 30, 2009 at 01:26 AM
-->
HG 140 Analysis:
Walt really is torturing us with this race. This looks like the kind of race where you'd be lucky to pick the winner let alone an exacta, tri or super. Therefore, I decided to just find one and bet it all on her.
I decided on the #2 Peaceful Pleasure because there are a number of things that make her look slightly less awful that the others.
First, she has only raced four times and being a May foal, may have some potential for improvement.
She is trying her lowest level yet, having dropped down the ladder at Tampa, Monmouth and now Penn Natl. However, she has had a race at this track, so maybe the drop from MD 10K to MD 5K will be enough.
Steven Brown is her third trainer and appears to be the best one she's had. This is her 2nd race for him, so he should know her better now. Her jockey, V Diaz rode her in her last so he should know her better as well, and the J/T stats are a very good 19%.
Finally, she got some play last time at the 10K level and had a decent work (for these) since her last race. Rachel she's not, but maybe she'll improve enough to win this MD 5K.
#3 Greshie Bay is the favorite here, and is taking a big drop. Although her trainer and jockey stats are good, she hasn't raced since Sept. and that is an awfully big drop, without even trying her a little higher first. Also, I don't like the almost a month gap between her Wnd works and her first Penn Natl work. And both works here are very slow. Not worth the price.
#4 Preacher - Pretty much the same concerns with this one as above. Too suspicious a drop, first start of the year, and very slow works. She doesn't even have the benefit of good trainer stats.
#9 Mine (Not to be confused with Mine That Bird) - This filly has raced 11 times, and only once was she not the favorite. Unbelievable. She appears to be quite the underachiever and not worth the low price.
#12 Cicada Sunrise - She has a chance, I suppose; but her jock went to my pick and even though her new jock may be related to her trainer, they have terrible stats together.
The rest, I'm afraid, appear to be chronic losers.
Good luck all!
Annie
Posted by: Annie on June 30, 2009 at 01:27 AM
-->
Tinky
..Nice to hear from you. I enjoyed your latest post about RA vs Z in a potential race set up. Very astute.
But previously, I enjoyed your off wit comment about Uncle Steve.
You have a wicked sense of humor...
SR Vegas
...Uncle Steve, all said with respect and a BIG SMILE!
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 30, 2009 at 01:32 AM
-->
Stephen Taylor,
I have to ask. What is the KISS method?
Sounds like you're going to have some very busy days. Lots of luck with your horses!
Annie
Posted by: Annie on June 30, 2009 at 01:33 AM
-->
To all of the critics of Jess Jackson.......
While you're bashing, why don't you include the fact that he isn't running her against Forever Together on the turf. The concept really isn't any different. You would still be expecting him to expose his future champion to a surface that is possibly out of her comfort zone, and definitely out of his. At least he has the courage to compete against males on the preferred surface.
That is certainly something that can't be said for the Moss/Sherif team, even with the terrible weakness of the older handicap division in SoCal.
Posted by: Caseyjeaux on June 30, 2009 at 06:36 AM
-->
Annie-
KISS method is "Keep it simple Steve" (or some people substitute Stupid for the last word!)
The weekend is kind of a "tradition" for us before we got into the partnership but that just improves it-We have horses in Thursday (wasn't part of the trip but Trippit is still my favorite-you never forget your first) and Friday night besides all that Arlington does, our trainer throws a party at his barn featuring the BEST fajitas (steak) I've ever had the privledge of devouring. And of course plenty of ice cold beverages-talking about having a keg this year! And of course, a few races Thursday and 3 full days of racing after that. The partnership that we have is absolutely fantastic for a racing fan. It's "flat fee" (You put in 5k your first year, and at the end of the year if there was a loss (to be honest, at least until we get our casino money there is) then you put in whatever it takes to bring you back to 5k the next year if you want to stay in, otherwise you just take what you've got coming and "opt out"-you don't have to worry about unexpected vet bills etc.-if for some reason something unexpected happens ANYTHING, the trainer "eats it". We have a box at Arlington that we can all use and if there are too many people on a given day, the people at AP are great about finding us another box close by for the overflow. There's an owner's lounge with flat screen tvs, computers, free pop and coffee, programs, etc. and besides the 3rd of July party we have a breeder's cup party at Hawthorne with a big buffett, open bar, plenty of tvs to watch the races and a door out to watch the Hawthorne races live. Our trainer is pretty much always accessible (partners have his cell phone) and from talking to a partner who is also part owner of another horse that is NOT the case with all trainer-some don't want to be bothered with anyone besides their "big money owners". And since I've been fortunate enough to have some pretty good wagering days while sitting with our trainer, while he makes the final decisions on placing horses in races, he actually takes my input. (That may change after Friday, I talked him out of running last Saturday for 10K and we probably could have beat the horse who won the race-on the other hand if we win for 18-or even run 2nd, I'll probably be forgiven)
Posted by: Stephen Taylor on June 30, 2009 at 07:39 AM
-->
Tinky: You nailed it on the Z and Rachel matchup.
The thing about Rachel is this I saw her as a 2 year old up close and as a 3 year old on oaks day. She was completely 2 different horses in her look and size, and I swear even though I watched on TV, she looks to just now be really filling out that long body and becoming fully mature. I can't see how without the aid of some serious pace Zenyatta could ever run her down. The thing about Rachel that truly amazes me is watched how she seems to skip over the ground at any track. Zenyatta is a special racehorse but how could you ever get her a fair race, with Rachel.
Posted by: Hillbilly on June 30, 2009 at 08:08 AM
-->
virgin queen;
Can I be the lobster-boy? Thanks. Whew...much beter. And yes, I agree that Dan looks cute in his uniform.
tinky;
Spot on with your post.
BigEasyChok;
Congrats to little chok, and I am working on Evangeline for tomorrow...
Posted by: Van Savant on June 30, 2009 at 08:51 AM
-->
I want Zenyatta and RA to race against each other in the Classic just as much as anyone else. The only reason I said the Ladies Classic is because it wouldn't take anything out of the ordinary for the females to meet there. It just makes perfect sense for the best fillies and mares to race in the BC Ladies Classic.
I think the 8-30 Personal Ensign at 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga would be the perfect race for these two to match up before the BC. Zenyatta can run in the 8-9 Clement L. Hisch then ship East for the 8-30 Personal Ensign, then ship back home for the 10-10 Lady's Secret/Goodwood before the BC. RA could race in the 8-2 Haskell, face Zenyatta 8-30 in the Personal Ensign then go in the 10-3 J.C. Gold Cup or Beldame. What's so hard about that? The schedules for both plus the distance would make the 8-30 Personal Ensign the perfect race to see these two hook up. Someone needs to make it happen.
Posted by: Captain Bodgit on June 30, 2009 at 08:54 AM
-->
I know it will never happen, but having Ghanaati, Vodka, Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta in the BC Ladies Classic would be, in my opinion, the greatest female race of all time.
Also we need RA and Zenyatta race against each other as soon as possible before injury prevents it from ever happening. We all know how fragile the horses can be.
Posted by: Captain Bodgit on June 30, 2009 at 08:59 AM
-->
Handigambling 140
$.80 Spr box: 2-5-8-9-11 = $96
$.10 Spr key: 2w/5-8-9-11=$2.40
$1.60 Tip
Posted by: chaazz on June 30, 2009 at 09:23 AM
-->
Annie,
Other than the obvious definition of kiss, in all caps it means: Keep It Simple Stupid.
Blue,
I am totally with you on the loss of status of the Breeder's Cup. I have gone every year since 1992, until last year, and I won't be going this year either.
As much as I love horseracing and have no problem sitting through two days of 12 races per day......the dilution of field quality that adding races at the new distances and surfaces does not make for "championship" racing. Instead, every horse gets its best surface, distance, etc and it just gives owners and trainers another chance to duck the competition. Therefore, it is no different than the average Saturday. When I head to the track, I know I will get to see a couple of nice horses, but rarely, if ever, a match up for the ages.
Of course there will obviously be exceptions to my generalizations, but I think that will be the trend if things stay the same.
Regarding the BC at Santa Anita and horses coming in from Europe and the east coast.....I have a very funky horse friend ( really unusual to say the least) who believes that horses from areas with less seismic activity have a more difficult time out in Cali. He says that although the rumblings of the ground are imperceptible to humans, horses hooves are very in tune to ground changes, as they are flight animals, and that these vibrations unnerve horses who are not used to them.
Sounds pretty crazy to me, but then again, horses do already show preferences for dirt, poly, grass, wet, dry, firm, soft, etc.
West Coast fans, has anyone ever heard of this before????
Posted by: turnbackthealarm on June 30, 2009 at 09:58 AM
-->
Handicapping 140
I Like #12-Cicada Sunrise
$100.00 to win..........
Posted by: terry on June 30, 2009 at 10:07 AM
-->
Van Savant,
Will have to rely on your proven expertise wednesday night as I am pulling all nighters at office all week but will be ready to play all weekend. On behalf of little chok thanks.
BigEasyBigChok
Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on June 30, 2009 at 10:29 AM
-->
TBTA:
And what about the Vortex influences on "flight" animals in training? New Mexico being ripe with Vortex zones seems a reasonable explanation of how Sunland Park became such a mecca of soon to be rich owners and trainers and black type steeds, no?
Posted by: Keith L. on June 30, 2009 at 10:44 AM
-->
TBTA,
That's right out of Ainslie's body language book. I bet your friend owns a copy. Sure, there could be a lot of truth to that. However, keep in mind: (a) it's an impossible factor to isolate and there are always other factors involved in shipping east-to-west, (b) there is some seismic activity (undected by humans) in the east also, and (c) pre-race inspection should tell you how uncomfortable the horse is, whatever the reason.
------------------------------
Instead of blaming Jackson for not wanting to run on ProRide, how about putting the blame on the Breeders Cup for forcing the end-of-season championship races to be run over a surface that few horses in the country have ever attempted... two years in a row. I believe there is a silent agenda to jam synthetic racing down our throats, whether we like it or not. I have to agree with Crist here... it doesn't make sense to run the biggest championship races on anything other than dirt (and turf).
Yes, Rachel has won once over Polytrack and Zenyatta has won once over dirt... but these are 2 fillies who have been running on totally different surfaces. ProRide does not equal dirt. Cushion does not equal dirt. ProRide does not equal Cushion either. Same for Polytrack.
Is this so much different than demanding a matchup between the best dirt horse and the best turf horse? What are we really asking for here?
Posted by: C on June 30, 2009 at 11:34 AM
-->
Check out Military Mandate's story... the PPs are attached. Funny to see Hollywood and Del Mar without the diamond-A.
Posted by: C on June 30, 2009 at 11:41 AM
-->
Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Moss say just this past weekend that he didn't want to follow the same schedule as last year with Zenyatta? Yet today I read that she will go in the Clement Hirsch at Del Mar then one would assume the next likely start would be the Lady's Secret at Oak Tree. Isn't that the exact same schedule as last year?
Talk about flip flopping and does anyone really think that Zenyatta will run after the BC this year? I for one don't but there is a race that would satisfy both camps, the Clark, at CD in November.
RA loves the track, the distance suits her and the race generally attracts a decent size field.
Zenyatta was entered to run at CD this year so the connections aren't opposed to the track (like they are with NYRA tracks), the race is at 1 1/8 miles (not 1 1/4 miles which the connections seem to be avoiding) and it would kill two birds with one stone for Moss (Zenyatta vs. RA and Zenyatta vs. Males).
If CD offers a bonus if both run to get the purse to at least $1 million I think both camps would think long and hard about showing up.
Lenny
Posted by: aparagon4u on June 30, 2009 at 11:45 AM
-->
A long way to go to Wednesday night's 4th Race at Penn National, so I'll amuse myself with picking at the ROTD at Philadelphia instead!
8th Race is on the Turf, 71/2F, with no defections listed today.
I will be all over the Matz/Pennington Trainer/Jockey Daily Double angle here in real life, with #2 in the 8th and #5 in the 9th composing my late double.
So, seeing Matz has brought a 3 yo lightly raced 1st Turfer to Philly in Indy's
Sonnata, I'll play here against and with a couple of older conservatively.
Wager:
$25 Win, $50 Place on #2 (Indy's Sonnata)
$ 5 Exacta Box: #2 with #1,#4
#1 (Promulgation-Motions's 4 yo out of Arlington) and
#4 (Dr Jess-NY bred 6 yo mare in Aro's barn 2nd run at Phily with Barber returning up).
$ 1 Trifecta: 2/1,4/1,4
$ 1 Trifecta: 1,4/2/1,4
$ 1 to light the pipe.
$25/50/20/2/2/1=$100
Posted by: Keith L. on June 30, 2009 at 12:08 PM
-->
Earthquakes and vortexes? Let's get out the ouija board and start chanelling Sea Biscuit.......... sorry it just seems a bit of a stretch to me.
Tinky, johnnyz, Blue Horseshoe and other euro afficionados,
how about the chances of RA and/or Z crossing the pond and raising a bit of Hell?
Posted by: cayman01 on June 30, 2009 at 12:15 PM
-->
RA VS Z
I really think we lost our chance to see this matchup happen. The best time for this would've been the Deleware Hdcp. It would be on dirt. Plenty of time before the BC. RA could still make the Haskell and/or Travers. Z would be shipped back with sufficient time to embark on a Pacific Classic Bid, Ladys Secret, BC angle. Now having both raced this past weekend and 20 days to the Deleware Cap, it just isn't possible. Now I haven't check the stakes calendar, but if something were to come up at the end of July, then it would be possible. I think in the long run, that if this matchup doesn't affect a Travers/BC bid for both horses, it can happen. But it has to happen now!
As far as who would have the advantage in the race if they were to matchup, I played against Zenyatta when she faced Ginger Punch in the Apple Blossom last year b/c it seemed GP was the only speed in the race. She didn't get much pressure on the lead as expected, and Zenyatta inhaled her nonetheless. I mean, that was a champion she blew by like as if her hooves were stuck to the racetrack and on a dirt surface. Granted, RA is an amazing horse in her own right, but I just think Zenyatta accomplishes more by the way she wins her races coming from so far back. It doesn't matter if there's a speed bias, lone speed, short field, big field, dirt, "plastic"...she always gets it done, in such a consistently unorthodox manner.
Posted by: Causeways37 on June 30, 2009 at 12:25 PM
-->
I keep looking at the picture of IT'S A BIRD on the front page; and I can't figure out what that thing is on his nose??
The article doesn't mention, and no one on here has commented, but wasn't he stripped of his last win because of a medication violation?
Anyway, he apparently will run in the Suburban at BP on Sat.; but the horse that interests me is ASIATIC BOY. I seem to recall that he ran very well in his first U.S. start, and could be ready for a win Sat.
Annie
Posted by: Annie on June 30, 2009 at 12:49 PM
-->
Zen vs RA
I believe the distance and pace would be huge factors for both. I also think the venue would be a big factor( the longer the stretch the better for Zen ). Assuming a testing pace with a full field I would give Zenyatta a firm advantage at 10 furlongs ( and beyond ) on any dirt track with a long stretch ( Churchill, Belmont, Fairgrounds etc... ).
I don't believe we have seen Zenyatta dig down for her best in any race yet. I think she has more to give and as long as the target is in her sight she will get there in a 10 furlonger against RA. I don't believe 10f is a comfortable distance for RA and a couple hundred yards from the line Zenyatta would be at full speed and RA would be gutting it out to reach the line: Advantage Zenyatta.
9f is the perfect distance for both to be in the most competitive race between the two. I still favor Zenyatta in the above circumstances at 9f. I am not sold on RA rating off the pace in a full field with other true speed ( by rating I mean getting into her most comfortable stride regardless of the distance from the leader ). I believe she will force herself to be within a couple lengths of any pace ( no matter how hot ) and therefore be affected in the stretch from running her best ( although 80% gets it done against most ): Advantage Zenyatta.
At a mile and 1/16th or less RA would have all the advantages of her tactical speed as well as her superior acceleration. Zenyatta would possibly have to change tactics slightly in this shorter distance ( staying closer than normal possibly, depending on pace and RA's position ) and would probably have to GO earlier which could somewhat nullify her dramatic late kick.: Advantage RA.
I believe any race at any distance less than 10 furlongs in which RA is able to run comfortably through the race ( no early and middle stress ) would make it very difficult for Zenyatta, although not impossible. No pace stress affecting RA and Zenyatta would have to be perfect to beat her ( that's one of many reasons why a match race would never be in the cards for these two ).
I also give points to Zenyatta in the maturity factor. These are animals and they are very aware of their surroundings. At some point RA will have to look Zenyatta in the eye and vice versa ( around the stables or pre-race warm-up...somewhere ). I believe Zenyatta would intimidate most colts with her size and I certainly would give her and advantage over RA.
Just opinions, of course, I hope we get to see it.
Posted by: Fred on June 30, 2009 at 01:04 PM
-->
A person really cannot be blamed for wanting to make a story now and then using horses' names. Just look at some of the names people give their horses. Here are just a few of the recent winners:
Idon'tlikeanyone
Girlfrienontheside
Wishful Tomcat
Duke of Mischief
Rumor Has It
No More Goodbyes
Jake the Snake
Yikes
Bubbley Blonde
There definitely is some humor in the sport of horseracing.
Annie
Posted by: Annie on June 30, 2009 at 01:10 PM
-->
Here's my stab at HG.
#3 Greshie has been overnatched against straight maidens and should enjoy dropping in against this pathetic bunch.
#9 Mine has 4 seconds and 2 thirds. Seconditis but at least shows some competitiveness.
Call me a chalk-eating weasel. Cold $ 100 exacta, Greshie over Mine. But what the heck's a "greshie"?
Posted by: Zan the Man on June 30, 2009 at 01:59 PM
-->
Industry News | Posted 6/29/2009, 6:25 pm
Study finds that Lasix reduces bleeding
A study funded in part by North American racing groups and conducted using South African racehorses has indicated that furosemide, the diuretic administered prerace to about 90 percent of all horses racing at North American tracks, plays a significant role in reducing the severity of bleeding in the lungs.
*
This also just in. Jessica Alba is nice to look at, a six pack of beer will get you intoxicated, John Henry was competitive, and farts generally stink.
Posted by: Mathieu on June 30, 2009 at 02:11 PM
-->
Mathieu,
LOL! I was thinking that too when I read the article. Like, isn't this why they've been giving lasix to just about every horse for ages? I wonder how much they paid for that study.
Annie
Posted by: Annie on June 30, 2009 at 02:42 PM
-->
HG140:
Geez.... I think the worst bottom level Los Alamitos T-Bred can look more competitive on paper than these plodders. Anyway, #3 is the obvious one here. comes out of faster races at higher levels. Great j/t angle and trainer can get them running off the layoff. Great stats for a real suspect field. I don't think this horse will find an easier field than this. Should be fresh and ready to pop and wire these or just be real close to the pace. #9 MINE is obvious on numbers and can be forwardly placed. The #2 & #4 i'll throw in just based on drops in class levels. I can't look at this field anymore it hurts!
$25 TRI 3/9/2,4 =50
$25 TRI 3/2,4/9 =50
Posted by: Causeways37 on June 30, 2009 at 02:58 PM
-->
HG 140:
ML Favorite is #9 MINE from the S. Beattie barn who is clicking at 22% for the meet. This one looks very beatable, seeing as how she has not run two winning type races in a row. Chaves rides strictly 2nd string types for this barn and only clicks at 11% in 45 races together.
Three stand out for me, and on top, I'll use #3 GRESHIE BAY making her first start for the Layne Gilforte barn, who wins with 26% of their first time racers. Her AM drills have been OK, showing a steady tab of works leading up to this start. This barn has been close in many races at the meet. #2 PEACEFUL PLEASURE drops and should show more in her second time over the track. #4 PREACHER drops in from WV in her first start of the year. She comes in for a low percentage barn, but she is live amongst a weak group.
We'll play:
$10 exacta box 2-3-4 (60)
$40 Win 3 (40)
Posted by: Eric S. on June 30, 2009 at 03:02 PM
-->
Posted this in the Cristblog and thought it should be posted here as well (some of this is a bit of re-hash, but it goes into greater detail my earlier ideas):
One reason I specifically wrote my idea for the Delaware Handicap was if they went there with a $3 million purse, I suspect you would have a full field of 10-12 show up to face the big two, mainly because third money in a $3 million race would STILL be more than the winner's share would be in almost every other race for females in the sport.
Since we are very close to the Del 'Cap's date (Sunday, July 19), if a showdown can't be arranged within a week or two for then (that if it happened, if I were at the NTRA I would then look at getting on ABC or NBC in early Sunday evening prime time (7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT with post time for the Del 'Cap at 7:40 PM ET, as Sunday night prime time in the summer is not anywhere near as highly rated as it once was, coupled with there likely being huge interest in an RA-Zenyatta showdown from more casual sports fans), there is another way such a showdown could happen:
I sent a "snail mail" to Philadelphia Park a few days ago suggesting they try to work out a deal with Magna Entertainment where for 2009, the Pimlico Special (Grade 1) is transferred to Philadelphia Park and is run at Philly Park on Saturday, October 11, four weeks before the Breeders' Cup. As I suggested in that letter, if Philly Park did get to run the Pimlico Special this year, I would do so there as an invitational with a base purse of $1 Million, and the following enhancements designed to get the three winners of this year's TC races and Zenyatta:
If a prior winner of a Triple Crown or Breeders’ Cup race starts, the purse is increased to $1,250,000.
If two prior winners of Triple Crown or Breeders’ Cup races start, the purse is increased to $1,500,000.
If three prior winners of Triple Crown or Breeders’ Cup races start, the purse is increased to $2,000,000.
If four or more prior winners of Triple Crown or Breeders’ Cup races start, the purse is increased to $3,000,000.
The provisions are mainly written as such to get a showdown between Rachel Alexandra, Mine That Bird, Summer Bird and Zenyatta in what might be the only opportunity to get what currently are the four best known horses in the sport together. In addition to those four horses, I would look at guaranteeing berths to a running of the Pimlico Special at Philadelphia Park were it to happen to the winners of the following races:
The Whitney Handicap (August 8 at Saratoga)
The Travers (August 29 at Saratoga)
The Woodward (September 5 at Saratoga)
The Pacific Classic (September 6 at Del Mar)
The Pennsylvania Derby (September 7 at Philadelphia Park)
The PA Derby is included since that normally is Philly Park's top race. Obviously, if other past BC winners showed up, it would make for a great race as well, but the setup is designed to get the "big four" to show.
Posted by: Walt on June 30, 2009 at 03:14 PM
-->
ROTD:
Fun race to figure....
Agree that Glorius Smile (#6) may not be tightened down here, but it looks like she relaxes very nicely on the lead....can't get too carried away with the Pa.-bred stakes company she's beaten, but a nice filly for 9k!
Motion sure has forced his girl to travel this year (#1)....like Motion alot,but strange planning....going to figure she needs a bit more distance.
Matz will be awfully tough here if she takes to the grass...race two back puts her in a nice stalking trip off the #6
#8 Saw the filly run her last and wasn't crazy about Bravo's ride.....Clement shipping to Philly does worry me that he doesn't like her because he's normally quite patient. I'll use her underneath
$50 w. #6
$25 p. #6
$15 ex. 6-2
$10 tri 6-2-8
Posted by: Matt M. on June 30, 2009 at 03:17 PM
-->
Poor Mine That Bird. Calvin may jump off him again to ride Warrior's Reward. What I want to know, where was Warrior's Reward when I needed him for a Pick 4? :)
Annie
Posted by: Annie on June 30, 2009 at 03:22 PM
-->
ROTD
after seeing opening line I will box 1-2-10 in both ex & tri leaning to 1 or 10 for winn bet
Posted by: buffalo joe on June 30, 2009 at 03:29 PM
-->
HG 140 @ Penn National
$1 tri box 2 3 4 8 9 $60.00
$1 super 2 4/ 2 4 9/ 2 3 4 8 9/ 1 2 3 4 8 9 $36.00
$4 exacta 2 4 $ 4.00
The #3 looks like the winner on paper with drop down but has 25 and 13 day gaps in marginal works so he could be a fire sale. He does get an 18% jockey and trainer good off layoffs at 25%. I will take the 2 and 4 on top, the 9 for his 7 of 11 ITM finishes and the 8 because of his middle move at a longer distance in June 11th race.
Will grab my passport and head for Assiniboia Downs for Canada Day on Wednesday since they only have three day time race dates this summer.
Good Luck to all - Cheers!
Posted by: Dave K on June 30, 2009 at 03:51 PM
-->
RA should try a synthetic race against the boys out in Cali. If she doesn't like the track and runs bad well then "no harm" "no foul". If she wins she could come back for the Breeders Cup. Then Moss/Sheriffs will have a decision to make. Of course they'll probably choose the Melbourne Cup.
Posted by: Stella on June 30, 2009 at 04:02 PM
-->
ROTD
Will take a flyer on #10 summer at Susan's. May 8th turf race ran a 29.1 final 3/16. Throw out mud race. Price should be right.
$50 win #10
$10 ex. 2,4,8/10
$5 ex. 10/2,4,7,8
Posted by: billg on June 30, 2009 at 04:24 PM
-->
Handigambling 140
M5000 at Penn National is an interesting selection. First off thanks for making a prompt race choice. These bottom of the barrel contests can be quite challenging especially when you are not really familiar with the track/circuit.
Going to look for a some angles that lead to the two horses I can box in the exacta.
The Line:
1 Lady By Far 20/1
2 Peaceful Pleasure 6/1
3 Greshie Bay 5/2
4 Preacher 5/1
5 Test Notes 20/1
6 Running Home 30/1
7 Icall Sofia Myjule 20/1
8 Spanish Breeze 12/1
9 Mine 3/1
10 Elfies Dream 30/1
11 Katie's Court 20/1
12 Cicada Sunrise 8/1
Peaceful Pleasure: lightly raced, dropping in class, positive trainer switch, 19% t/j combo, same jock retains mount, has recently raced, did show a touch of speed two back.
Mine: has run competitively at this level beating 22 of 31 in last three races, has recently raced, beaten fav, last two over sloppy track and could move up if the track is drier, same jock retains mount, high % trainer.
$50 box Peaceful Pleasure & Mine
Posted by: Alfredo on June 30, 2009 at 04:34 PM
-->
Well. the Matz filly gave it a good run, falling less than a length short of the win. Too bad, as Pennington got the second half of the trainer/jockey daily double up in the 9th.
In real life, had the #4 (Signal Tap mare) Dr. Jess Jr. as $2 across the board as a saver to my double, exacta, and tris bet down with 1/3rd of the mythical money. So, covered most of my bet.
Next time!
Posted by: Keith L. on June 30, 2009 at 04:51 PM
-->
Annie (and SR Vegas)
KISS can also signify a betting plan whereby if two or more PGH quilifiers are entered in a race, the bettor chooses to wager on the one with the jockey she would most want to smooch in the winner's circle! LOL!
Keith
Posted by: Keith L. on June 30, 2009 at 04:54 PM
-->
Good afternoon, all....
Annie, the thing on It's A Bird's nose appears to be the equine equivalent of the Breathe Right (TM) nasal strip many human athletes wear, especially runners. I'm just throwing it out there!
Happy Canada Day tomorrow to our fellow bloggers in the Great White North....I'm liking Approval Rating in the Dominion Day race at WO.
Good luck to all HGers
Katieattherail
Posted by: Katieattherail on June 30, 2009 at 05:02 PM
-->
Keith,
LOL!!
Annie
Posted by: Annie on June 30, 2009 at 05:03 PM
-->
hg 140
$100.00 win 12
first time L
Posted by: pippen0707 on June 30, 2009 at 05:14 PM
-->
HG 140
What a sad bunch...it's like we're looking for the valedictorian of summer school.
Preacher (#4) is going to be my pick here. She drops from MSW company into the lowest rung of MCl. On paper, there are not many reasons to select this horse. But, when faced with maiden claimers, the first drop from MSW is the only angle I would ever bet.
$78 Win 4
$2 Exacta 4/ALL
Posted by: baltimore_brian on June 30, 2009 at 05:25 PM
-->
HG 140
For me, this race boils down to, not who I like the best, but, who I dislike the least. With that being said, the horse I landed on is #11 Katie's Court. This filly started her racing career in February and has raced consistently since. Speed figures on the low side, but, within a narrow range. I like the fact that she shows two works since her May 29th race, and now drops to her lowest class level.
Wager:
#11 $40 Win - $60 Show
Good luck to all
Posted by: Mike Romeo on June 30, 2009 at 05:58 PM
-->
Katieattherail,
Can I tempt you to play the HG by telling you that KATIE'S COURT is running in the race?
Unfortunately, she is 20-1 and has never been closer than 6-1/4 lengths to the winner in her six races.
On the bright side, if she won you would probably win the HG. :)
Annie
Posted by: Annie on June 30, 2009 at 06:11 PM
-->
Katieattherail,
I forgot to say that you are probably right about the thing on It's A Bird's nose. I've heard that some trainers are using those. Thanks
Annie
Posted by: Annie on June 30, 2009 at 06:20 PM
-->
HG 140
I personally believe that one of the top 3 betting choices always win these types of races. i further believe that the huge longshot will run 2nd, and not 3rd, most of the time. Going with that idea, I will use the #9 as the favorite and the 6 & 8 as the longshots. Then i will throw in all the other favorites underneath for the tri and super.
$25 exa 9/6,8 = $50
$1 Tri 9/6,8/2,3,4,6,8,12 = $10
$1 sup 9/6,8/2,3,4,6,8,12/2,3,4,6,8,12 = $40
tencentcielo
Posted by: tencentcielo on June 30, 2009 at 06:37 PM
-->
Good evening, Annie....
You'll see Mike Romeo has already singled out my equine namesake for HG 140.....20-1 is about what you'd get for me in most road races! But I hope to be getting off the DL column by month's end.
I'll root for her, even if I keep Dan's mythical Franklin in my pocket tomorrow. Good luck, Mike, you hit the big one with that pick.
My late, great Dad used to bet a horse in my honor called Cathy Honey, but I seem to recall it died in the gate, and I don't mean figuratively!
Have fun everyone,
Katieattherail
Posted by: Katieattherail on June 30, 2009 at 06:37 PM
-->
Distaff Fever:
Saturday was like watching the AFC and the NFC Championship games within 30 minutes of each other. While the '70s Steelers demolished an overmatched foe in one game, the '85 Bears destroyed a hapless opponent in another (feel free to substitute your favorite teams). Too bad there will probably not be a Super Bowl of horse racing to determine the best of these two great distaffers.
______
HG 140
This is the type of race I was advised over three decades ago to avoid. My horse racing mentors used to say that when a race like this comes up (filled with "giraffes" or "clams") it was a perfect time to find the men's room. Glad this is your money Dan.
Top Contenders:
4--Preacher(5-1)--Beat most of the fillies in her 2 yo races and drops for a tag for the first time. Though the works are slow, the fact that the last 3 are from the gate would seem to indicate an effort to stay closer to the pace. Very competent jock at this circuit. Can the trainer have her ready?
9-Mine(3-1)--First off, I want to say how much I usually avoid these types--0 for 11/beaten fav all but once! But who else can set the pace? J/T combo has had some success but unless this one is better than 3-1, I can't put her on top.
3-Greshie Bay(5-2)--Another one making her first start of the year--gets top rider and drops--no, plummets--from WO class level. Never on dirt surface but she just might have too much "class" (LOL).
Others to consider:
2-Peaceful Pleasure(6-1)--3rd conditioner in 3 starts--slight drop and decent jock--should be in the mix.
12-Cicada Sunrise(8-1)--FTL and a decent work after freshening--she was competitive back in the spring at this level.
10-Elfie's Dream(30-1)--In a field like this you sometimes grasp at anything. The 6/3 race was not good but the winner romped in a very good time for this level and the runnerup came back with a win. She was obviously overmatched at higher tags. Maybe the sleeper? (Maybe still sleeping after the gate opens?)
The Wager:
Gotta go for a bit of a price:
$6 EXwhl-10/ALL=$66
$1 TriKey 10/4,12,3,9,2,5=$30
$1 SPRWhl 10,4/10,4/9,3/9,3=$4
Good Luck and Good Racing!
Posted by: meadowlake59 on June 30, 2009 at 07:10 PM
-->
HG:
$20ex 11/2
$30ex 11/9
$1.50 super: 11/2,9/2,3,9/all($48)
$2 for a cheap, foul-smelling cigar (yuk).
Going with the hot hands here, using trainer stats and jky-trainer stats at distance/track.
Posted by: slewofdamascus on June 30, 2009 at 07:11 PM
-->
HG 140
Like the #8,Route to Sprint, middle move last.
$80 Win 8
$20 Ex 8-9
Posted by: mike o on June 30, 2009 at 07:13 PM
-->
While all the talk is about Zenyatta and Rachel, I was most impressed with Joneboro's win @ Prarie Meadows. I'm a fan of My Pal Charlie, so I stuck around to watch this race. Actually, there were a few nice races Saturday night @P.M.
When was the last time we have seen an "Old Man" run their best races at such an advanced age? Jonesboro really surprised me, he looked great and ran to his looks. Wonder where he will go next. Perhaps a try in a Grade 1, his number for Saturday was excellent. Perhaps an owner or two will see that a race horse can still run past their 3 year old season.
If any one out there is familiar with Jonesboro and his connections, please shed light on where I might be see his next race.
I also didn't know he is a son of Mom's Command- she won a few races in her time.
Thanks, and very best of luck to all.
Posted by: fort marcy on June 30, 2009 at 07:40 PM
-->
HG 140
Not a big fan of Penn National- look at the take on a trifecta race.
Since only play money-
#9 has burned a ton of money but talent wise- this is about as low as you can go-
Chalk- but 3rd place finisher came back to win so I'll key with #2 and #4.
Feel #2 will get first run and #4 perhaps show some kick final quarter.
Play- $50.00 Tri- 9/2/4
$30.00 Tri- 9/4/2
$15.00 Tri- 2/9/4
$5.00 Tri- 4/9/2
Posted by: fort marcy on June 30, 2009 at 07:52 PM
-->
fort marcy
If you want to keep track of Jonesboro, use the drf tool above. Click on the "TOOL" link and click to 'horse watch' You can then put in Jonesboro, request workouts, entries, results, and have them sent to your email
It's a terrific tool to keep an eye on a favorite, or horses you want to watch.
It also allows you to keep notes.
Hope this helps.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 30, 2009 at 08:04 PM
-->
Keith L
LOL! That's clever angle.
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on June 30, 2009 at 08:09 PM
-->
I love Zenyatta, but if she races RA on anything other than synthetic, she's at a huge disadvantage unless RA is severely hampered by a faster than normal pace and the distance is 9 furlongs or under.
One of the chinks in Z's armor, imo, is her ability to get a distance of ground beyond 9 furlongs, and not only that, I think she's best at 8 and 1/2.
At a mile and a quarter on dirt I believe RA would prove to be vastly superior.
And if such a race were on synthetic, I might have to back RA, because of the distance and likely price (Z would likely be favored in that scenerio).
***
At some point during the Saratoga meeting I will be flying in for a weekend of racing fun. I haven't worked out the dates, but I'm not sure I want to be there under the mad conditions of the Travers?
Can anyone give me an idea of what Traver's day is like on-track? Is it a mad-house? Are tickets required?
I heard Porte Bonheur might be pointed to a race there, so I may look at that since she's one of my faves in-training. While I think she's better at 6 furlongs, even after her latest win at 7 panels, these longer races will have her legged up nicely for the eventual cut-back to six in the BC F/M sprint. If I can get Successful Dan on the same weekend I'd be doing cartwheels.
Much to consider, but wouldn't mind meeting up with any east coast formbloggers at Sar when things are finalized.
Posted by: slewofdamascus on June 30, 2009 at 08:20 PM
-->
Rachel vs. Zenyatta-who would win? to me it totally depends on the other horses, the pace, etc. but how do we get them on the track together? How did they get Ali vs. Frazier? How did they get Elton John and Billy Joel on the same stage? MONEY. First, we need to "think outside the box" and not try to fit them into an existing stakes race. (A lot of people made fun of Monmouth and IEAH when a race was written especially for Big Brown) Why not Monmouth again? I don't think that they have the restrictive detention barn that NY has, and possibly a casino sponsor with special seating access for that casino. The other key would be, besides getting Zenyatta and RA together, would be to get not only a decent sized field but a field with some talent together. Kind of an "invitational" type thing similar to the American Oaks-whether it be females only I'm pretty neutral on although I personaly would kind of lean towards fillies and mares exclusively. Maybe a 50k guarantee per horse plus a 2 million dollar purse? Gotta believe with proper marketing, a deal as far as takeout with wagering outlets so that at least Monmouth could break even, and woolah-the race everyone wants!
Posted by: Stephen L. Taylor on June 30, 2009 at 08:37 PM
-->
Because the 9 looks like the winner I will place him second and third in my picks and use the 12 to complete my bets.
.50 superfecta all with 9 with all with 12
.50 superfecta all with all with 9 with 12
$1 triple all with 9 with 12
Posted by: NJ Lady on June 30, 2009 at 09:37 PM
-->
hg 140 looks like the 3 is the class and ran good 1st time compared to this bunch most off his beyers are better than anybody has run the 9 runs a lot of 2nds and 3rds so ill play 100.00 exacta 3/9
Posted by: crazyhorsemike on June 30, 2009 at 09:49 PM
-->
Slew:
I've been to the Travers many years including the most recent four years. It is definitely crowded but I would not characterize it as a madhouse. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder though, so let me elaborate.
Me and my crew of about 5-6 40YO men and a woman or two are happy getting there around 10:00 and setting up camp in the backyard (we don't get there for the "running of the tables" at 7:00). We have consistently found sufficient open space, in our desired spot, every year. Betting has not been a challenge either save for maybe the starts to the Pick 4s. We get up to the Grandstand and watch some of the races from behind the seats, and usually can grab a spot.
If you seek something more civilized, money always helps and you may be able to score some seats at the hotels or at the track day of from someone looking to unload. Travers Day Post is noon, and I think much of the crowd shows up on the late side. Plus the prevailing view it seems is that Travers Day is a madhouse and I believe that scares people away (everyone I talk to has the same reaction when I say I'm going/have been to the Travers).
Based on my fairly basic needs, I have found it very pleasurable and the racing is absolutely phenomenal. I think the giveaway days can be worse.
Tinky:
Would love to hear a story or two about your Ascot trip. I'm getting the itch for some foreign racing. Heard Ascot while racing great isn't greatest place to go due to crowds. I'm interested in your experience.
Posted by: alhattab on June 30, 2009 at 10:09 PM
-->
Rachel vs Zenyatta
If the owners of Zenyatta felt that they could beat Rachel they would come east to run.Just look who R.A. beat.If the colts who ran in the preakness ran against the mares who ran against Zenyatta, how does anybody think they would have done? Well rachel beat them could Zenyatta on dirt have done the same.In my opinion No.
Z is a specialist on the artificial surface.If she wasn't why not come east and try the best on dirt.
By the way if you downloaded Ruffian's pp's did you see anything but 1's.I saw her live and she was in my hunble opinion the greatest filly ever.
Handigambling
The 3 is a huge drop although with a long layoff. the 9 is the only horse that shows anything.
lets bet $50 exacta box 3-9
Posted by: garym on June 30, 2009 at 10:40 PM
-->
HG 140
This will be another chapter in helping me to become a more well rounded handicapper (with Penn National that probably involves weight gain only).
Penn National is a track that I would only play if it contained a mandatory race in a handicapping contest. Like today. :)
The 9 has hit the board 9 of 11 times (82%) in the superfecta without a win. Using that analogy she will probably finish second, third or fourth but I will key her anyway (with 2 exceptions). The 3 has hit the board in the superfecta 4 of 5 times (80%) and the 12 has hit the board 3 of 5 times (60%) in the superfecta with neither finishing better than third. Very analytical but in the topsy turvy world of horse racing that information and $2.25 will get you a subway ride in NYC. That being said, here are my superfecta bets.
$1 Sfx 9/4*12/4*12/all = $18
$1 Sfx 9/4*12/all/4*12 = $18
$2 Sfx 9/all/4*12/4*12 = #36
$1 Sfx all/9/4*12/4*12 = $18
.50 Sfx all/4*12/9/4*12 = $9
And with the last dollar (for no "logical" logical reason):
$1 Sfx 12*9*4*3
Posted by: Wright Stuff on June 30, 2009 at 10:40 PM
-->
Zenyatta and RA could prep in the Go For Wand and Jim Dandy respectivly before going in the Personal Ensign. Both would have a prep at 1 1/8 miles on the same track 4 weeks before the showdown. How hard is that?
I don't think wanting RA to run on a synthetic track is like wanting her to run on the turf. Synthetics are a substitute for dirt. Turf is not a dirt sub. On top of that RA has already won on a synthetic surface.
Posted by: Captain Bodgit on June 30, 2009 at 10:57 PM
-->
Tinky,
I thought you had gone to Newmarket for the Guineas races... you went back for Royal Ascot too? I'm even more jealous now.
Posted by: C on June 30, 2009 at 11:40 PM
-->
Alhattab, thanks a bunch, that's very helpful, and nice to know there will be other 40yo types there. In horseracing, we're still the young set.
smile
I like a horse at PLN tomorrow (the oldest horseracing venue in the United States), 7th race (2nd leg of P4) Signs Of Destiny, 2yo, 8-1 m/l, making her 2nd lifetime start (exiting the same race as 3 others in here). By Mr.Procrastinor (one of my favorite NoCal racehorses from an era gone by), who has an enviable record with 2yos over the past 3 years (on regular dirt), but more importantly this filly is going synthetic to dirt. Mr. Procrastinator's offspring hit at about 4% on the artificial over the past 3 years. On dirt, 23% winners.
This filly SHOULD move up on the switch to dirt, the connections are solid, I liked her first effort and with the blinkers going on (tr-jky are 3 for 7 with the shades going on), speed should be the order of the day. Expecting big improvement and a square price.
Whatever happens, if you ever see a Mr. Procrastinator going synthetic to dirt, just plop the $2 bucks down and forget about it, you'll come out ahead in the long run.
Onward and Upward?
fuhhgettaboutit
Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 01, 2009 at 12:39 AM
-->
Oh, and note to whackymacky: please don't knock Signs of Destiny down to nothing with one of your big bets, this is PLN, after all.
Two words.
offshore wagering
smile
Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 01, 2009 at 12:53 AM
-->
Caymon01,
Great question/thought concerning Rachel/Zenyatta racing in the UK. Zenyatta with her jog and pounce running style would fit right in. Also out of Street Cry (Machiavellian) she would stand a better than average chance of running well on grass. Some might question her stamina, which is quite important in UK races but, I wouldn't as she loves synthetics. That to me indicates one would handle the hilly UK courses.
Concerning Rachel, I would loved to see her run in Europe, as that would mean a grass race. As I have shared this with a few, I think with Rachel's stride and high leg action she might even be better on grass than she is on dirt! That won't happen this year but, if Jess brings her back at four maybe we will get to see.
Concerning a Rachel/Zenyatta match up, I see Rachel winning 8/10 on any surface at any distance. That is a pretty profound statement, which I could write many pages as to why, but how about this. She won the Mother Goose sitting off 22,44,1:08 and change fractions breaking a long standing stakes record and missing Secretariats track record by 3/5's while jogging the last furlong. As Calvin Borel stated, "she's not normal"!
While I would love to see them both enter the same gate it is no big deal to me. Would be great press and good for the sport but IMO it won't happen. I feel Zenyatta will run in the BC Classic. The race is in her back yard and on a surface she loves. While many months off, I think Sea The Stars will be her main comptetition. Will get a little better handle on his class level this weekend as he tackles older horse's in the Coral Eclipse @ Sandown.
Concerning Rachel, I feel Jackson will center around the Haskell OR the Travers but, certaintly not both. If she were to win either and one more of any stature would be a lock for HOY, IMO!
Posted by: johnnyz on July 01, 2009 at 12:58 AM
-->
HG140
I wouldn't normally look at a race at this level, nor spend money on it. I can use Dan's money so I'll take a shot with the 12, FTL and should show some improvement from her last race.
$2 Sup.Key 12/2,3,8,9 $48
$52 win on 12 $52
Posted by: David W on July 01, 2009 at 01:45 AM
-->
HG
Holy cow! Never seen so many goose eggs in the PPs. #3 has never tried dirt, but has superior human stats. #8 is legged up and either runs second, or doesn't run at all. $100 straight EX 3-8.
Haven't read all the posts, but cut Jackson some slack. He was extremely "sporting" with Curlin's campaign last year, and his decision to face males in the Preakness (risking a major backlash if something went wrong). He paid the cash, and can manage however he pleases. If it were your money, would you have a public vote to map out your prize horse's campaign? If they both win out, looks like a funky BCS result for year-end honors. Zenyatta, of course, loses that battle, much like USC, who falls victim to the East Coast anti-PAC10 bias. Might as well rename Pro Ride, Cushion Track, and Poly... Stanford, Washington and Washington St.
Posted by: rr on July 01, 2009 at 03:38 AM
-->
HG 140
The Analysis
1 - Lady By Far (20/1). Definitely on the slow side as top Beyer for the year is just a regular “Blackjack” with a lifetime best of 32 from 20 lifetime starts. Trainer is 0 for the year with only a show from 24 starters. On the plus side does draw the rail, has finished in the money in 7 of her starts and has shown a bit more speed the last few, but tough to make a case for her as her best form was a long time ago and even then it was fairly poor.
2 - Peaceful Pleasure (6/1). Revolving trainers continue as this is her third after only 4 lifetime starts. While the Beyers are low, there are some things to like here. She may improve as she is young, lightly raced, dropping in class, flashed a bit of speed and has a decent work since last race. The trainer has great numbers for maiden claiming races winning over a third of his starts and his second time trainer stats results in over three-fourths in the money finishes. I expect this horse to get some play and will likely be the third favorite. Not really thrilled with the performances so far, but do expect some improvement here, just not enough for the top spot.
3 - Greshie Bay (5/2). Don’t have enough experience with Penn to predict how they will play this horse, but will likely be the second favorite at post time. She has been off nearly 10 months and is dropping to the bottom. Very spotty work tab, but returns for a trainer that shows good win percentages and positive ROI in many categories. These types are always tough as they could just as easily win by 10 as they could pull up on the backstretch. I do not think that either scenario will play out, but she seems damaged goods and perhaps one to tread lightly on, especially given her likely odds.
4 - Preacher (5/1). I really tried to like this one, but the time off, drop in class and glacially slow works give me tremendous pause, especially when you consider the new trainer wins at about 5%. I do like that her Beyers are not that low and they were from her 2YO season, so with any normal maturity, she should be improved. However, it does seem like the wheels are off the bus on this one, so I’d tread very lightly. I also expect the odds to be higher than her morning line.
5 - Test Notes (20/1). Goes for a 1% trainer with a lifetime best Beyer of 34, but usually manages 25 or less. Likely has a bit more speed that many suspect, but still seems up against it here. Outside chance to pick up an exotic placing.
6 - Running Home (30/1). Way to slow as 3 of the last 4 Beyers were single digits. Really has nopositives attributes that I can find, so odds will be very long.
7 - Icall Sofia Myjule (20/1). Seems pretty slow overall, but trainer can pop a big price now and then. Does have some early speed and will likely be in the top flight early. Hard to expect improvement for a 2% trainer, but speed is always a bit troublesome. However, a pop and stop is more likely.
8 - Spanish Breeze (12/1). Turf tries two years ago were good, but she is obviously not the same horse. Drops into sprint off of middle move in route, but still hard to like off of last 4. Not for me.
9 - Mine (3/1). The likely favorite at post time as she has been favored 10 of 11 starts. Obviously has some talent at this level, but also has some problems as she has finished in the money 7 of 11 times. Beyers seem to yoyo between the 20’s and 40’s. She has pretty good early speed and may be able to establish command early. Had a bit of trouble in last as well. Seems the best of the established form, but so far has always run into at least one who was better.
10 - Elfies Dream (30/1). Has only beaten 9 horses in 6 races and has never been less than 23-1. Closest finish is more than 16 lengths off the winner and there is no reason to expect any kind of improvement. Candidate for the rear.
11 - Katie's Court (20/1). Continues down the ladder and has been consistent enough to believe that she may run well enough to find the exotics. Seems to be the best chance of the horses that are / fairly large odds. Outside post is not that terrible and I like to work form June 15. Live longshot.
12 - Cicada Sunrise (8/1). One work since her race on May 13. Has had a brief freshening and picks up lasix for the first time. Has shown a bit more speed in the last two. Can’t argue too much with those who look this way, but I cannot use her.
The Strategy
Always tough to bet these races. Mine is the best of those who have recently raced, while the two horses returning off a layoff would be extremely tough is they can repeat their previous form. Given the circumstances, it is tough to put either one on top. There are a couple of horses that could find their way into the money at some decent prices, especially if those layoff horses fail to fire.
The Bets
$1 Trifecta: 9 / 2,3,4,5,11,12 / 2,3,4,5,11,12 Bets: 30 Total: $30
$1 Trifecta: 9 / 4,11 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 Bets: 20 Total: $20
$1 Trifecta: 9 / 2,5,11,12 / 2,5,11,12 Bets: 12 Total: $12
$1 Trifecta: 9 / 2,3,4,11 / 2,3,4,11 Bets: 12 Total: $12
$1 Trifecta: 9 / 3,4,11 / 3,4,11 Bets: 6 Total: $6
$1 Trifecta: 9 / 2,3,4 / 2,3,4 Bets: 6 Total: $6
$1 Trifecta: 9 / 2,5,11 / 2,5,11 Bets: 6 Total: $6
$1 Trifecta: 9 / 4,11 / 4,11 Bets: 2 Total: $2
$1 Trifecta: 4,9,11 / 4,9,11 / 4,9,11 Bets: 6 Total: $6
Posted by: Molesap on July 01, 2009 at 04:25 AM
-->
Slew posted about this race earlier and I was looking at it as well, so here is a quick and dirty analysis (PLN 7 for Wedesday, July 1):
9 – Signs of Destiny (8-1) gets blinkers for her second career race and drops some in class. Should run better on the dirt and she should improve with the experience. My top choice.
2 – Spiaggia (8-1) is a first time starter for Hess who wins almost 25% with his debut horses. The sire’s first time starter stats is even better at 31%. Works seem fairly slow, so not sure what to make of it, but they do fit in the context of the race.
5 – Miss Dubai (5-2) will likely be favored in this spot. Has shown some promise down South and then dueled early in her Northern California debut only to falter late. Does hook some other early speed in Lane’s Legend and possibly others plus trainer is a big question mark, so try to beat her at a short price.
7 – Sanfire (6-1) has been working at PLN for Myadi. Works are not particularly quick and Myadi’s strength is not firsters, but field is generally weak so she has a shot.
(I know it’s chalk, but Baze should be able to set an easy pace on Sidepocket Cat (8-5) to complete the Signs of Destiny – Sidepocket Cat double in the 9th)
Posted by: Molesap on July 01, 2009 at 05:04 AM
-->
Quick look at Arlington for TOMORROW. We'd talked about "false favorites" awhile back, last week at Arlington (the Thursday-Saturday race week) Favs were 9/40 (22%) but Odds-On favorites were 0 for 6!
Thursday-
1st-8-Monastery is 1st poly and 1st lasix (by Maria's Mon on my poly list)and while he hasn't run well, hasn't been stinking up the joint either-7 Program Manager does figure but doesn't figure at the 7/5 ML odds he's been assigned
2nd-3-Tillman Hall stepped onto lasix last and promptly broke his maiden. These are 5K non-winners of 2 and at 12/1 I'll gladly pay to find out if he can win right back. 6-Smarty Matt Jones (Not by Smarty Jones) 2nd off layoff and drops to the lowest level of his career
3rd-1-Wedgewood-immacualte breeding (especially for an IL. bred) and got caught in a mini-speed dual last (His first start) First starters 3-Bottom Less Pitt and 7-Rodeo Romeo both interest me a little bit
4th-5-The Real Chas was going too long (mile) and facing too tough (Springfield Stakes) last-this is a much better spot. 1-Wild Expectations is inconsistent but does pop up with a big race now and then. 3-Blue Knight is 8/5 ML but has been beaten 6 in a row at this level. Could add to the list of beaten odds on favorites at Arlington.
5th-TRIPPIT is 1 for 25 but the numbers are there (and he's in our partnership so I'm predjudiced) However the good news is that he won't get the lead (not sure why he's been going to the lead lately-don't you wish these horses could talk?) and the horse up front early has an inexperienced jock who may not be adept at rationing the speed.
6th-4-Ford Gallop has run on grass but only in sprints, and has never been more than 6 1/2 f on any surface-Tomlinson says he'll handle the stretch out and Mike Stidham knows what he's doing.
5-Green is For Go could wake up back on grass.
7th-6-Oughta Be Mine looks to me to be a LIVE LONGSHOT! Has won 2 of last 4 and last win was his first start on Poly-just got up to win by a nose at 1 1/16 last and the one turn mile may actually help him since they use the regular finish line instead of the alternate (with a shorter stretch) that AP uses at 1 1/16. Be careful of 2-Four To Go-his only 2 career wins came at the one turn mile at Arlington.
8th-7-Stanley G scratched the other day for this spot, shortens from 1 1/8 to a mile on the grass and is probably the logical choice but I'm going to try to beat him with 9-Full Flame. He's the prime power top pick and should be ok on grass and going 2 turns. This is a woefully weak field for allowance horses and those 2 really seem to stand out for me.
Posted by: Stephen L Taylor on July 01, 2009 at 07:14 AM
-->
(#9) Mine looks obvious and may be the fastest but that 7-11 in the money with no wins has to send you searching elsewhere. (#3) Greshie Bay looks like one that has ability if she can handle the dirt.
$50 win on (#3) Greshie Bay
$50 exacta (#3) Greshie Bay over (#9) Mine
Posted by: Ed on July 01, 2009 at 07:21 AM
-->
When are the connections of Mine That Bird going to part ways with Borel? Taking the Preakness mount on Rachel Alexandra was one thing, but taking off MTB for Warrior's Reward? WR couldn't even win the Northern Dancer, and Borels going to take off the Derby winner to ride him?
Posted by: Captain Bodgit on July 01, 2009 at 07:58 AM
-->
I am going to use Steve's KISS Method this week because I am lost. #3 has the highest Beyers, is dropping in class, and the trainer is hitting at 26% with 1st time horses in barn.
$100 Win 3
Posted by: Strike The Gold on July 01, 2009 at 08:17 AM
-->
alhattab, C –
I did not attend Royal Ascot. I often go to the Guineas meeting, as I did this year, and having the pleasure of watching Sea the Stars victory made it extra special.
I have been to Royal Ascot, but do not enjoy it as much as other big meetings. In fact, the last time I was there Theatrical was a 3yo and was beaten as a hot favorite.
Posted by: tinky on July 01, 2009 at 08:31 AM
-->
Regarding Rachel and Z:
First I know Rachel has won on synthetic, I was there and had a huge bet on the 2nd place runner Argyle Pink. Ginger Punch also had a win on synthetics but no sane person would say she was close to the same horse on that surface as she was on dirt. Indian Blessing would be another example. My point being, beating lesser horses on a different surface doesn't mean Rachel would be able to run her A game on it. Jesse is determined that this horse secures her legacy as an alltime filly, he want risk it. Zenyatta's camp are including John Sherriffs IMO believe Z is not as sharp as she was a year ago, and only a crazy person would go looking to run against Rachel if they couldn't get a full field and a fair race. I'm with those who think Z's best distance is 8.5 to 9 furlongs.
Posted by: Hillbilly on July 01, 2009 at 08:37 AM
-->
The potential lack of a meeting between RA and Zenyatta has caused me to come up with an idea for the Breeder's Cup. First, the powers that be need to recognize that this is now a 3 surface sport-Turf, Dirt, Artificial surface. (I know that not all artificial surfaces are the same, but neither are all the dirt or turf courses)
First, we're gonna add 4 races-a sprint and a route on artificial for both boys and girls. The BC is going to be hosted by two tracks within fairly short proximity of one another. (Churchill and Keeneland are the obvious ones-but Arlington/Hawthorne comes to mind, and possibly Presque Isles and a New York or Delaware track-my geography skills aren't great)The artificial surface races are Friday, the "real dirt" races are Saturday, and possibly the grass races could be split up. The two year olds would still run on dirt, and I'm sure hotels would have no problem arranging transportation between tracks for fans in order to get them to stay at their hotel. There would be 8 races per day: Friday would be the 4 artificial surface races along with the turf sprint, the juv turf sprint, the juv fillies turf sprint, and the fillie and mare turf. Saturday would be all of the dirt races as well as the turf mile and BC Turf. (Or to have a "headliner" on Friday, maybe the BC Turf could be kind of their "main event" and the fm turf could run Saturday? You'd then have a truly representitive BC crowning champions on all 3 surfaces that are now an integral part of racing.
Posted by: Stephen L Taylor on July 01, 2009 at 09:31 AM
-->
Race of the day: Dominion Cup
#9 Cool Gator
Posted by: chaazz on July 01, 2009 at 09:51 AM
-->
I will look to the two strangers the #3 & #4 and take a 50$box exacta with the two newcomers.
Posted by: tedmur on July 01, 2009 at 10:00 AM
-->
HG140
Don't play this course so hard to figure what's going to unfold here. 3 and 9 are likely and I like the improvement in the 4. So this is how I'm playing it:
$1 Tri 3-9/3-4-9/all $40
$1 SF 3-4/3-4-9/2-3-4-5-9/2-3-4-5-9 $24
$.10 SF 3-9/3-4-9/all/all $36.00
Posted by: Peter Vescovo on July 01, 2009 at 10:27 AM
-->
Katieattherail,
Thanks for the well wishes. I'm hopeful for an in the money finish.
Posted by: Mike Romeo on July 01, 2009 at 10:47 AM
-->
Re:
Borel may jump off of MTB.
Let him. If Borel even considers leaving MTB for RW, the connections for MTB should tell him to take a hike for good. Why on earth get off the Derby winner for any other horse?
I understand the RA deal, but it was still controversial. This is crazy. I am tired of hearing it every month, already.
I like the idea Walt threw out about Deleware Downs and racing the big 4, but it makes sense (sigh), and that pretty much spells doom in this current game...
One sidenote: I would take issue that Summer Bird is one of the top 4 3 year olds. He has won 1 graded race-a grade 1-but we could say the same thing about Da tara last year at this time. In any event, until SB wins another graded stakes race, I would rank that one just behind Musket Man, a horse that outfinished Summer Bird in the Kentucky Derby (finishing 3rd), and a horse that ran a very good Preakness despite being steadied going into the second turn. MM has also WON several stakes races, 2 of them graded stakes races.
Apparently the World Thoroughbred Rankings have Musket Man as the top rated American COLT 3 year-old, even post-Belmont. Until SB proves he can win another graded stakes race besides the one of a kind 12f Belmont, that is the way it should be IMHO.
I almost hate to post my opinion because I have liked Summer Bird since his strong 3rd place finish in the Ark. Derby. However, IMHO, at distances of 10f and under I am not sure how he will do against the likes of horses with tactical speed and gears for multiple acceleration. For instance, against the likes of MM or even BD and RA or Papa Clem in the Haskell at 9 furlongs, I cannot see Summer Bird winning unless the pace completely melts down (and he finished behind PC and MM at 9 and 10f already). Time will tell, but IMHO it is entirely too early to consider SB one of the 4 top 3 year olds simply because he won the Belmont Stakes by sitting just off fast fractions. If the Belmont confers such an air, then by all means Da'tara is one of last year's top 4 3 year olds.
I'm pretty sure SB is no Da'tara (and will prove to be the real deal). But the Belmont was his first graded stakes win. Let the horse EARN that distinction by winning the Haskell.
Candidly, I simply do not see him beating Musket Man or Rachel at 9 furlongs or under, although I could be proven wrong.
As for RA and Zenyatta, I agree with those who give RA the edge due to her tactical speed. Having said that, RA has looked super impressive while beating fillies that would be crushed by all of the top 3 year old colts or Zenyatta as well. RA has yet to carry more than 121 lbs, so until she does, that and her tactical speed give her an added advantage. Give a filly of that caliber 5 lbs, much less 8 lbs, and she has an unfair advantage that makes her very hard to catch.
And yes 5 to 8 lbs makes a difference in horse racing. That is why the give the fillies the weight break. I have heard anywhere from 3-6 lengths for a 9 furlong race, with 5 furlongs being the one most often cited. This makes sense from an althetic point of view as well. Humans have noticed slower times when running the mile (anywhere from 4 to 8 lengths slower) when merely wearing 6 once weights around each ankle. At a distance, it takes it's subtle toll.
If I could get decent odds on Zenyatta against RA, I might jump if it was not a match race. I remember how hardly anyone believed that the "slower" Invasor would run down the brilliant and dominating Bernardini. If I recall correctly, all Invasor had to do was look Bernardini in the eye and get a leg in front and that "unbeatable" 3 year old did not know what hit him. Remember, Bernardini's Preakness was far more of a statement than RA's was, and he did not get 5 lbs. He won by over 5 lengths, while RA was all out to hold off fast closing MTB and MM by 1 length or less.
I am not trying to take anything away from RA, simply reminding everyone that RA is dominationg inferior foes, much like BB last year (except that is all we heard about BB last year, while RA has gotten a pass). I think RA is a very good filly, but remember this: both MTB and Musket Man were steadied on that second turn. Had either not been forced to change paths and switch gears, the race is down to the wire or she is beaten. They closed several lengths on her in the stretch. The filly is beatable when facing competition that can run with her when it counts.
I guess the real question is, will she be beat? Its one thing to be beatable, another to actually be beat.
Posted by: vicstu on July 01, 2009 at 11:10 AM
-->
That should be WR, not RW, that Borel may ride over MTB...
Posted by: vicstu on July 01, 2009 at 11:11 AM
-->
some takeout info for Penn National:
Trifecta and superfecta: 31%
Pick 4: 28%
Pick 6: 30%
are they kidding?
I might come back and play some exactas (22% takeout) but even with play money I don't think I'll try to beat that kind of handicap on the bigger exotics.
31% takeout on trifectas - think about that for a while....
Posted by: p ensign on July 01, 2009 at 11:15 AM
-->
Slew:
Travers Day on track is not bad....as long as it doesn't rain. The grounds and backyard area are huge so when there are 40,000 -50,000 people there they are spread out fairly well. But the indoors and seating are limited so if it rains everyone is cramped inside. If you are stuck inside in the grandstand go upstairs to bet - the lines are much shorter.
As far as seats Travers Day is always sold out except for a few thousand seats that are put on sale the night before at the local Holiday Inn (I think 8:00 pm) and at 7:00 am at the Union Avenue entrance of the track. However, if you can't make it to buy seats there you can usually hang around the Union Ave entrance (where the ticket booth is) about noon and find people selling seats.
Posted by: CM on July 01, 2009 at 11:26 AM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 