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FormBlog | July 01, 2009

HandiGambling 140

Tonight's HandiGambling 140 exercise is the fourth race from Penn National, a $5,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares at six furlongs.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

GRESHIE BAY (#3) looks like the horse to beat based on her speed figures, but we have to keep in mind that those numbers were earned on turf and polytrack at Woodbine, and this will be her first start on dirt.  Also, I'm a bit dubious how the Woodbine Beyers will translate to Penn National as it's been my experience that Woodbine shippers generally under-perform at lower class levels at tracks like Finger Lakes. 
Still, her last race looked okay.  It was a key event that produced next-out winners from the third- and sixth-place finishers, and Greshie Bay was in-and-among horses while four wide down the backstretch.  Her new trainer, Layne Giliforte, is 8-33 over the past year at Penn National (according to Formulator Web statistics), and jockey William Otero predictably chose Greshie Bay over ELFIES DREAM (#11, the other horse Otero was named to ride on the overnight sheet). 

MINE (#9) has had 11 chances to break her maiden to no avail, and has been the beaten favorite in an amazing 10 of those starts.  She could be the main speed for the high-percentage Stephanie Beattie barn, but doesn't seem very trustworthy on the win end of things. 

TEST NOTES (#5) doesn't look very good on paper (heck, most of these don't look very good no paper), but she's only raced once at this $5,000 maiden claiming level, and may not have cared for the "good" racing conditions.  She finished second for $7,500 earlier this year, and may clunk along for a piece of the pie at a solid price. 

The plunge from maiden special weights to maiden claimers is arguably the most powerful class drop in the game, and PREACHER (#4) held her own against better in West Virginia as a juvenile filly.  She doesn't have much early speed, but should relish the class relief, and only needs to improve her 2-year-old figures a little bit to reach par (37) for this level.  The layoff is a bit of a concern, however.

KATIE'S COURT (#11) has never been this cheap in her career, and it's quite possible that she simply can't hang with 10K, or even 7.5K maiden claimers at this stage in her career.  As a filly trying the low level for the first time, she isn't the worst longshot to hang your hat on if you want to try and beat the chalks.

RUNNING HOME (#6) also will drop to this 5K group for the first time, but her recent form isn't as good as that of Katie's Court.  She has earned single-digit Beyers in three of her last four races at odds ranging from 18-1 to 101-1, and must improve.

CICADA SUNRISE (#12) adds Lasix for the first time, and that's another powerful angle in maiden races.  Jockey Vladimir Diaz had his choice of Cicada Sunrise and PEACEFUL PLEASURE (#2), and he bolted to the inside runner. 

ICALL SOFIA MYJULE (#7) may not have liked the sloppy conditions at Penn National on May 28, and has a hint of early speed.  She may try to press Mine in the early portion of the race, but her stamina is suspect.

Peaceful Pleasure (#2) attracted Diaz off Cicada Sunrise, and halves in price for her second start of the meet.  She wouldn't be a surprise in this weak field.

SPANISH BREEZE (#8) tired badly going two turns in her first start in almost six months, and should be tighter for this assignment.  She's a six-year-old maiden, though, and those types aren't usually appealing plays.

Elfies Dream (#10) lost Otero to Greshie Bay, and has yet to make an impact in six starts.

LADY BY FAR (#1) is 0-20, and she earned a -0 Beyer in her first start with blinkers.

This isn't much of a race, but I'll play it like this:

$50 Exacta:  Greshie Bay - Mine (3-9)
$50 Exacta:  Greshie Bay - Test Notes (3-5)

Good luck to all:

***

When is a filly not a filly?  When it's a male pseudohermaphrodite, that's when.  Check out Mr. Bergstein's article on the pacing "filly" Martha Maxine:

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=105093

***

RE; Euro 1 mile times . Do they also use runups to begin timing or is it timed out of the gate ?
peewee

That's another good point about the slower times of European turf races.  I don't believe they use run-up times.  Couple that with the often-wet condition of the green, undulating courses, and the European style of concentrating on a strong finish after a slow early pace, and you have slower times.  Shuback's new book is a must-read.  Part travelogue, part history lesson, and part handicapping primer, it really gives the reader a sharp look at foreign racing.

***

What about Ghanaati. . . ???
Kat

Ghanaati, a three-year-old filly homebred from Shadwell Stables, has now won three in a row across the pond including the 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes, both at one mile.  Her next assignment could come against older mares in the Group 1 Abu Dhabi Falmouth Stakes at one mile at Newmarket.  A trip to the Breeders' Cup is questionable as she may be best suited in the mile turf race against males.

***

Talk to you soon,

Dan

 

Posted by dan_illman on July 1, 2009 | Permalink

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Comments

$100.00 win on # 9 Mine

Posted by: Russ on July 01, 2009 at 02:05 PM

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Looked a little deeper into the race,big drop+++===
$50.00 exta box 4&9

Posted by: Russ on July 01, 2009 at 02:31 PM

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My opinion on tonight's handigambling race at Penn National:
3/4/9/8-12-2-5

Wagers:
$73 Trifecta 3/4/9
$3 Superfecta 3/4/9/all ($27)

Posted by: Ray Gordon on July 01, 2009 at 02:34 PM

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Dan,
My experience with Woodbine shippers to penn is positive if in the hands of a good trainer (usually Sam Webb). For that reason I put Greshie Bay #3 up top.

#4 Preacher...the drop out of MSW ranks and the first start as a 3yo angle, plus she has been training steadily and you don't need to be much to win this race.

#9 Mine- I will put her underneath because that is where she belongs and I can't put and 0 for 11 maiden up top. She will at some time find a field to beat, but I have watched her hang for months now...

#2 Peaceful Pleasure- 2nd time over the track and the drop down the ladder. Solid connections with Brown and the Mr.Ree owned horses have come in and done OK.

#12 Cicada Sunrise- First time I have seen the Kid (Joe)ride for the old man (James)so I make note of that, plus first lasix. Also, Joe gives %110 everytime out and is good for a bomb because he out works most jocks at Penn. Hell, he rode my filly two weeks ago to a 2nd at 36-1. :)

Wagers:
$24 Win on #3
$5 Ex 3,4 With 2,3,4,9,12 $40
$3 Tri 3 With 2,4,9,12 with 2,4,9,12 $36

Posted by: Brian on July 01, 2009 at 02:50 PM

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HG

Would seem like the key would be fuguring out if any of these gals can run 46:3... 1:13.2 tonight. At this skill level I don't think speed figures tell you much. Greshie Bay would seen the choice,but why the heck this spot....why not the synthetic at Presque Isle or FL (NY bred)....I'll go in another direction.

$50 w. 4 ....six works off the break plus big drop

$25 p. 4

$15 ex. 4-2....Steve Brown is solid.

$10 tri 4-2-3

Posted by: Matt M. on July 01, 2009 at 03:00 PM

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hg 140
without a long unexplainable explanation on this race , I had the #8 at 4-1 on my morning line while the track ml had 12-1, so this looks like my value play here.
$52.00 win # 8
$2.00 tri box 3-8-9.
$2.00 ex. box 3-8-9
$1.00 super box 3-8-9-5
In the words of retired referee Mills Lane, "Let's get it on"

Posted by: dale tillotson on July 01, 2009 at 03:02 PM

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"without a long unexplainable explanation on this race , I had the #8 at 4-1 on my morning line while the track ml had 12-1, so this looks like my value play here.

Posted by: dale tillotson"

Hey Dale, I've found myself doing a lot of morning line vs. my own line vs. my projected line- figuring during these exercises - would you mind posting your line for this race, (and if you care to, some of your philosophy on line making?).

thanks

PE

Posted by: p ensign on July 01, 2009 at 03:17 PM

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Walt's Handigambling:

First, here is what I came up with for an opinion using the actual method I do, showing the complete PAP, value line and morning line for EACH horse in this race:

4th Pen- 7/01/'09 -- 9-3/4-2

RF V1 ML
1- 10 99 20
2- 45 6 6
3- 61 7/5 5/2
4- 46 5 5
5- 26 50 20
6- 19 50 30
7- 12 50 20
8- 30 30 12
9- 57 9/5 3
10- 18 50 30
11- 33 30 20
12- 24 50 8

This is one race that looks very clear cut and straightforward to me, and looks like it will be a very chalky payoff almost no matter what, unless any horse aside from the top four manages to lumber up into the Tri or Super. There are NO "Mad Dogs" in this race whatsoever.

MINE (#9) has the look of the classic "sucker horse" as she is 0-for-11, however, she does come out of the Stephanie Beattie barn and this may be her best chance to romp. GRESHIE BAY (#3) is the obvious favorite off her Woodbine efforts last year. The obvious concern is the "fire sale" drop to $5,000, but she is a four year old who is facing by far the weakest field she ever has, and Layne Giliforte does have strong numbers all over the place. PREACHER (#4) also looks like she is in for a "fire sale" price making her 2009 debut (and first start ever for a tag) and PEACEFUL PLEASURE (#2) makes her second start for a trainer (Steven Brown) who seems to excel in maiden claimers (winning three-eighths of the time at a huge ROI). They look like the only other horses with any realistic shot to hit the board in this.

My wagers are as follows (and remember, Penn National does have 50-cent trifectas, so that is why I can do the wagers here as they are):

$12.50 Trifecta 3-9/3-9/2-4 ($50)
$12.50 Superfecta 3-9/3-9/2-4/2-4 ($50)

Posted by: Walt on July 01, 2009 at 03:20 PM

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HG 140:

I would never play this race with real money but with play money i'll take a stab at it. The contenders that I come up with are the 3,9 & 12.

$24 trifecta 3,12 with 3,9,12 with 3,9,12

$2 exacta box 3,12

Posted by: addc26 on July 01, 2009 at 03:24 PM

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Nice quality field at Penny Nat :)

I'm hoping that Greshie Bay (#3) cannot carry her form from the plastic onto the main track AND that Mine (#9) gets a fast track tonight in which she appears to prefer over the mud. I'm not thrilled by the fact that she's been beaten chalk 10 out of her 11 starts.

20 cent Super Key 9/23456-11-12 $42
20 cent Super 23456-11-12/9/23456-11-12/23456-11-12 $42
$8 Ex Box 5-8 $16

Posted by: PaulieWalnuts on July 01, 2009 at 03:25 PM

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HG 140

I don't normally pick droppers going from MSW to the bottom level MCL but the only horse I could bring myself to pick was Preacher (#4). Mine (#9) has hit the board consistently and the rest all look the same.

$56 Ex 4/9 = $56

$4 Ex 4/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,11,12 = $44

Total = $100

Lenny

Posted by: aparagon4u on July 01, 2009 at 03:26 PM

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HANDI GAMBLE FOLLOWS..#5 SHOULD DO IT....
$4 TRI KEY...#5 OVER 1,3,6,8,9,/1,3,6,8,9 =$80
$20 WIN #5 =$20

Posted by: DERBYFRITZ on July 01, 2009 at 03:31 PM

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$1 SUPERFECTA

4 WITH 2, 3, 9 WITH 2, 3, 5, 8, 9 WITH 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12

$1 TRIFECTA

4 WITH 2, 3, 5, 8, 9 WITH 2, 3, 5, 8, 9

$1 TRIFECTA

2, 3, 5, 8, 9 WITH 4 WITH 2, 3, 5, 8, 9

Posted by: eternal_arcadia on July 01, 2009 at 03:55 PM

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Still waiting on scratches and changes for Penn, so how about a ROTD PGM School exercise here first.

Woodbine, 8th 1&1/4 on the poly-Dominion Day Stakes.

I like Equitable, #3 here with Jones up for Pierce on this lightly raced 5 yo horse.
Tomlinsons and past Turf efforts says 1&1/4 is right there for the asking, with pedigree supporting.
I also like Chantal up on #5 Ice Bear for this race, and will take the 12-1 shot #8 Perfect Bullet with all that turf breeding for the distance too. JR and Shug have to figure somewhere with ML fav #2 Vacation.

Wager:
$20 WPS on #3 (Equitable)
$ 5 Exacta Box: #3 with;
#2 (Vacation)
#5 (Ice Bear)
#8 (Perfect Bullet)
$ 1 Trifecta: 3,5/3,5/2,8
$ 2 WPS on #8 (Perfect Bullet)
$60/30/4/6=$100

Posted by: Keith L. on July 01, 2009 at 03:55 PM

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HG140

I'm going with the horse with the fewest losses :

$100 win #2 Peaceful Pleasure

Good luck to all !!!

Posted by: Dick W on July 01, 2009 at 03:58 PM

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HG 140. Nice race Walt. LOL!

Tried to post my horse-by-horse rating but was unable to post. Hopefully this takes.

Spreading out in this.

$8 ex. 3,8/2,3,8,9,11,12
$2 tri 3,8/3,8/2,7,9,11,12

Good luck!

Posted by: billg on July 01, 2009 at 04:07 PM

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You know folks I've been betting race horses a long time. I've seen some bad fields, never bet them, couldn't even watch. When you have horses who really shouldn't be running, who obviously have physical problems and should be
someones horse for pleasure riding it actually breaks my heart to see them run. Most of these horses have switched trainers race to race, no one seems to want to take the time to try and straighten them out, which tells me they really have problems. It's not always about the gambling M'friends, egos aside, only a person with a gambling problem would bet this race with real money. In races like this the winner should get a ticket out, sent to a farm somewhere to live out the rest of it's days healthy, or at the very least put up for adoption.

Well since it isn't my money and I don't have to watch, of course hoping they all finish.

To me Geisha Bay hasn't run that badly in better company, why throw her into a race with a field she lays over for 5 grand? To me you enter a horse in this race to send them to purgitory.

I'll take the (2) Peaceful Pleasure, she showed speed going longer and had a tightener at 5 and a half furlongs, she's a 3 yr. old and lightly raced, she may turn out to be a useful sort.

(3) Geisha Bay, you know what I think of her

(8) Spanish Breeze, she has a bit of back class, she must have potential otherwise I'd be riding her on Sundays.
She seems poised for a decent effort and she has run 2nd 3 times.
My bet is Exacta's
2-3 50.00
2-8 50.00

Posted by: Mike on July 01, 2009 at 05:05 PM

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Congrats Walt on picking what will likely go down in history as the most challenging (worst) handigambling race of all!!!

I narrowed the field down to four contenders...

GRESHIE BAY: best figs, probably ran against the best competition, and ran her best race in her first start which eases the concern about the layoff.

PREACHER: Big drop and ran OK at Mountaineer.

SPANISH BREEZE: should improve 2nd start back and like the cut back to 6F after the move she made in a longer race first off the layoff.

MINE: A money burner for sure, but her fast track races are good and she will probably hit the board.

$5 Ex Bx 3-4-8-9 $60.
$3 Tri Box 3-4-8-9 $36.

$4.00 for aspirin after handicapping this race.

Posted by: CM on July 01, 2009 at 05:23 PM

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From today's DRF News:

As for having Indian Blessing share top billing on the Summit of Speed card with Benny the Bull, Baffert said, "That Benny the Bull stole my championship last year. You guys voted for the wrong horse when giving him the championship over the greatest sprinter of all time."

Uh, Bob, he may have won back to back BC races but it would be a reach to include him in the top fifty. Heck, after perusing the champions of the Seventies he would struggle to make the top fifteen for that decade alone. Ta Wee, Ack Ack, Forego, My Juliet, Chou Croute (16 of 18 sprinting with her only losses due to bleeding and a stumble at the start, respectively), JO Tobin, and What a Summer (a filly/mare who was 14 of 20 lifetime sprinting and twice took the Fall Highweight clear under 134lbs) are but a few from the decade that wrought Disco. I don't believe Lute would've threatened them or even warmed up Bold Forbes, Hoist the Flag, Seattle Slew, Ruffian or Spectacular Bid. I'd even take Ancient Title over him.

The fastest horse for six furlongs I've seen was Chinook Pass. I believe he would've made even Secretariat work to run him down. But the greatest sprinter of all time in my book is Dr. Fager. At 3/4's Big Red would not have been able to catch him.

Baffert turned in a superior job of preparing Lute for his defense last year but in the rundown for greatest sprinter of all time a more appropriate statement would be, "Midnight who?"

Posted by: Mathieu on July 01, 2009 at 05:23 PM

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Just to play devil's advocate here. Borel IS showing some loyalty.....to a trainer for whom he has ridden many mounts. Maybe he is being loyal to Wilkes, not just abandoning MTB. Just a thought.

Dale

Posted by: Dale on July 01, 2009 at 05:23 PM

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HG RECALCULATION.

Sorry, my math was a bit messy (It's been a long day)

$4 Ex Bx 3-4-8-9 $48
$2 Tri Bx 3-4-8-9 $48

$4.00 for a pocket calculator.

Posted by: CM on July 01, 2009 at 05:27 PM

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HG 140
DAN,
#9 ONLY HORSE WITH AN EXCUSE IN LAST RACE, LOOKS LIKE LONE SPEED?
$10 TRI 9/1,3,5
$10 EXA 9/1,3,5
$1 SUP 9/1,3,5

Posted by: tom on July 01, 2009 at 05:41 PM

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HG 140
$50 TRI-9/3/1,11
I don't trust 3, so I think the obvious alternative is 9.

Posted by: Matthew B. on July 01, 2009 at 05:47 PM

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HG 140

I don’t think the Beyers are hiding anything here. I find it difficult to look past #3 Greshie Bay. Reasons to play against would be the layoff; going from synthetic to dirt as Dan pointed out; and perhaps the Paynes Bay pedigree isn’t quite as good as some of the others here, but all in all, that’s not compelling enough for me to go against. Does pedigree mean anything after a few races or at this level?

I’ve got #12 Cicada Sunrise as the main threat and should be a factor with first Lasix.

Mixed feelings about #2 Peaceful Pleasure, but my figs put her Monmouth and Tampa races right there. A couple of Beyer declines – is there an upward bounce today?

Tough to go against the consistency of #9 Mine, but she’s a money burner and should be bested again.

Two intriguing shots in the trifecta are #6 Running Home, dropping 5 lbs, and #11 Katie’s Court for consistent, albeit slower, figs.

Bewildered by #4 Preacher. A Pulpit for $5k, gets mixed into the tri bottom.

$3 tri 3 / 2,12 / 2,4,6,9,11,12
$1 tri 3 / 2,11,12 / ALL
$1 tri 2,12 / 3 / 2,4,6,9,11,12
$5 ex 3 / 12
$3 ex 3 / 2
$2 ex 12 / 3
$1 ex 2,3,12 / 2,3,9,11,12
$4 win 3
$4 place 3

Posted by: TejanoRun on July 01, 2009 at 05:47 PM

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Handicapping 140 picks"
$3.00 exacta box 2-4-8-12
$1.00 Super 3,4,9/3,4,9/2,3,4,8,9,12/2,3,4,8,9,12
$4.00 win 1,5,7,11

Posted by: Joe L on July 01, 2009 at 06:04 PM

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Evangeline Downs – 7/1/09

Another difficult card for me. I’m giving it another shot, and will keep this up as long as I can afford it! $.10 Superfecta boxes (where applicable), and $1 Exacta boxes. We’ll see.

1st – Princessellemoreno, Spanish Venture, Fig, Geeska
2nd – Changing Weather, Blazin’ August, Cuz I Da Mon, Scrubs
3rd – Regret’as Gold, Iamjustaduke, My Project Runaway, Matagorda Bay
4th – Big Herm, Hazard Road, Deputy Villa, Big Eyed Malagra,
5th – Run Like Hunter, Carefree Jim, J R’s Wild Event, Jacob V and G A
6th – Proudtoholdnhave, From The Big Easy, Have A Good Day, Easy on the Co Two
7th – Mississippiprinces, Entre Deux Vins, Huffs Lisa, Sid N Ave
8th - Embrasser, Archie’s Tune, Itchypalm
9th – Little Bit Moody, Goldspender, Fancy Bandit
10th – A Burn Notice, Dorabella, Sentimental Gal, A Win for Hailey

Whew! Good luck good people, and enjoy this fabulous summer evening! ☺

Posted by: Van Savant on July 01, 2009 at 06:14 PM

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HandiGambling 140;

For this exercise, I took the following approach: I separated the horse into 1’s, 2’s and 3’s. The remainder I reject as having no shot to hit the board. The 1’s will be played in the Win slot, the 2’s in the Place slot (along with the 1’s), and the 1’, 2’s and 3’s will be played in the Show slot, and the primary wager will be a trifecta.

1’s
GRESHIE BAY (3) is coming off a long layoff, and has never run on dirt, but if she is right, she can make this trip. Note the trainer percentages. SPANISH BREEZE (#8) has been awful of late, but looks playable at a price in here. MINE (#9) seems to be competitive in her races, and has run well with the addition of blinkers.
2’s
PREACHER (#4) has run better since the addition of blinkers. TEST NOTES (#5) just may enjoy the class relief better than last time out. KATIE’S COURT (#11) shows a decent workout two weeks ago.
3’s
LADY BY FAR (#1) is running off a layoff, and at least worked prior to this race. PEACEFUL PLEASURE (#2) is lightly raced, and her trainer has some nice percentages. CICADA SUNRISE (#12) shows a decent workout coming into this.

My play:

$.50 Trifecta - 3,8,9w/3,4,5,8,9,11w/1,2,3,4,5,8,9,11,12 ($52.50)
$1 Exacta – 3,8,9w/3,4,5,8,9,11 ($15)
$30 to Win on the 9 ($30)
$.10 Superfecta box, 3,4,8,9 ($2.40)

That’s $99.90 the last dime can go to Madoff…check that…my bad…
Late

Posted by: Van Savant on July 01, 2009 at 06:17 PM

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just going to get the HG over with - yikes

favorite stat on the form

#7's trainer has a $2.40 return for .03 wins in 70 maiden claimer attempts. Those other two mcl winners probably went off at higher prices than I expect on Sofia/Jule, but she is interesting to me, with one second and one fourth place finish in three attempts at this class level

I will hope that #9 mine finds another way to stay out of the exacta today and use the two other trainers who show positive ROIs with mcls - lightly raced #2 and the obvious "might win by ten horse" #3 in exactas

$30 2,3 with 7
$20 7 with 2,3

Posted by: p ensign on July 01, 2009 at 06:19 PM

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HG140:

Thinking that the two droppers (3 & 4) are too obvious and represent no value here, and that Mine (9) will lose again at less than 3-1.

Instead, I'll use four semi-logicals who might still be considered "lightly raced" with no alarming class drops in the 1-hole.
Then I'll use the two obvious droppers and Mine in the 2-hole, followed by every horse except the 6 & 10 in the 3-hole of the trifecta.

The play:

$1 trifecta ($96):

2,7,11,12
w/3,4,9
w/1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,11,12

$1 trifecta ($4):

2
w/3,4
w/3,4,9

Total: $100

Posted by: Scott on July 01, 2009 at 06:33 PM

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Just a note for those of you who have not put in wagers yet:

Penn National is getting rain right now with 10 MTP for Race 1.

Posted by: Walt on July 01, 2009 at 06:37 PM

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$76 ex. 3-9

$2 tri 3 all 9

can't get too involved in this type of race

Posted by: peewee on July 01, 2009 at 06:37 PM

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Handicheapmaidengambling:

I don't believe I've ever seen a horse go as the beaten favorite seven times in a row, and yet I can't throw her out. The 3 does look to be best. My bombs are the 1 (runs her best with Quinones up) and the 8 (ran a bit before fading while off a six month break).

$2 TB 1,3,8,9

$2 SB 1,3,8,9

$1 SPW 1,3/1,3/8,9/8,9

Posted by: easygoer on July 01, 2009 at 06:41 PM

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HG 140

I don't know what the lowest winning Beyer speed figure is , but I have a hunch the "winner" from this bunch might set a new low.

#2 Peaceful Pleasure

Dropping in class. Coming out of shorter race, should show speed. Trainer and jock appear to be capable.

#9 Mine

You'll find his picture next to the term "False Favorite" in Webster's Dictionary. Consistently hits the board in lower slots.

#3 Greshie Bay

Undoubtedly the class of the field. May overwhelm this group.

Wager:

$20 ex 2/ 3,9 $40

$10 tri box 2, 3, 9 $60

bobc

Posted by: bobc on July 01, 2009 at 06:47 PM

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Handigambling 140

I like Cora sticking with the #7 Ocali Sophia Myjuli and I like her work showing speed.

# 3 Greshie Bay (sure to be cliamed for her name) looks to be the class drop down.
#5 Test Notes is possible for a price.
#9 Mine should be in the mix.

I'll wager thusly:

$30 Win/Place on #7
$ 5 Exacta Box: #7 with #3,#5,#9
$ 1 Tri 7,9/7,9/3,5
$ 1 Tri 3,7/3,7/5,9
$ 1 Tri 3/5,9/7

$60/30/4/4/2=$100

Posted by: Keith L. on July 01, 2009 at 06:49 PM

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hg 140
Would only bet this race with funny money
$50.win #12
$50. ex. #12-#11

Posted by: berdie on July 01, 2009 at 06:50 PM

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HG 140

I just can't offer any analysis of this race other than this: at least half this field will end up on a dinner plate in Japan someday.

I'm kidding, I'm kidding.

$50 WP 11. Slight drop.

Posted by: jim tully on July 01, 2009 at 06:50 PM

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Handigambling~ 4th@Penn.Nat.
Goning to key three horse on top of .20Super, Dime Super, & .50Tri.. Could cash all three & still not win if prices don't pop up!
.20Super Part/Wheel:
(2-3-12)w/
(2-3-7-9-12)w/
(1-2-4-5-7-8-9-12)w/
(1-2-4-5-7-8-9-12)=$86.40
------
.10Super
(2-3-12)w/
(2-7-9-12)w/
(1-2-4-5-7-8-9-12)w/
(2-12)=$5.60
------
.50Tri
(2-3-12)w/
(2-7-9-12)w/
(2-3-12)=$8
-------
Good Luck All!

Posted by: BombsawayBob Grant on July 01, 2009 at 07:03 PM

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HG 140, you would think that Ray and Walt had another Maddog 20-20 magical runner in this race. But becoming the contrarian, especially for this race, my selections are:

$2 superfecta 4 // 12 // 2-3-8-9 // 2-3-8-9 = $24

$2 superfecta 12 // 4 // 2-3-8-9 // 2-3-8-9 = $24

$2 superfecta 2-3-8-9 // 12 // 4 // 2-3-8-9 = $24

$2 superfecta 2-3-8-9 // 4 // 12 // 2-3-8-9 = $24

Total $96

Since this venue is a casino as well as race track, I'll use the $4 on the pocker slots for a Royal Flush after doubling the bet.

Posted by: TurfRuler on July 01, 2009 at 07:08 PM

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HG 140

$1 tri key box (wps) #3/12489 = $60

$40 ex 3-9

I agree with most other handigamblers in their dissection of this race. The 9, Mine, has never passed another horse in the stretch in his career.

I think the safest type bet here is to pick a horse and play them in all the trifecta positions. Thank goodness for play money.

Posted by: Ron Zuercher on July 01, 2009 at 07:15 PM

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Please note, this is my revised, updated and official entry into HG140. All I'm doing is switching the 2 horse from the 1st slot to the 2nd in one play, and using the 12 on top in the second play.

The play:

$1 trifecta ($96):

7,11,12
w/2,3,4,9
w/1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,11,12

$1 trifecta ($4):

12
w/3,4
w/3,4,9

Total: $100

Posted by: Scott on July 01, 2009 at 07:28 PM

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$3ex box 3,7,11,12

$2 tri box 3,7,11,12

$16 win 11

Posted by: kennymo on July 01, 2009 at 07:32 PM

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HG140
dart board special. thinking the 9 will fade with the rain coming in and the 3 too short a price.
$25 ex 2,4 / 1,2,4 = 100$

DOM

Posted by: Dennis of Moline on July 01, 2009 at 07:41 PM

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I agree with Mathieu, The Dr. hands down,but I would have liked to have seen a race with him and Ta Wee. The late sixties and 70's produced some of the greatest sprinters of all time. After reading some of his comments before the Derby I thought Mr. Baffert had learned to be humble, reckon I was wrong. Midnite Lute, let's see who remembers the name in 20 yrs.

Posted by: Mike on July 01, 2009 at 07:44 PM

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Mike got it right...it is #2 Peaceful all the way for all his reasons.

Chalky after that.

$20 exacta 2 with 5 and 12.

$10 tri 2 with 5 and 12 with 5 and 9 and 11 and 12.

Good luck everyone.

Posted by: Sunday89 on July 01, 2009 at 07:47 PM

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Hi All,
Good to be on vacation and to finally have time to study and parse my tickets, although getting this in with 15 minutes to post is still typical me.

1- Lady By Far: Another trip around the track for this forlorn mare and her win-less trainer. I'll root for her though.
2- Peaceful Pleasure:Should fit at this level and wins with a carefully timed ride.
3- Greshie Bay: Comes way down in latitude and in price and should win even if moderately infirm!
4- Preacher: At least she's been working regularly but I think that she tires to just get a small check. Amen.
5- Test Notes: Likes to start and remain near the back of the pack. Toss.
6- Running Home: Gets minimal and likely insufficient class relief.
7- Icall Sofia Myjule: Should attract a lot of "ooh what a pretty name"-money. Good for us.
8- Spanish Breeze: turns back and picks up the light Jacquie Davis; why is everybody and his uncle claiming this mare? She has a chance to be in the dinero.
9- Mine: clearly not related to "That Bird" but is clearly competitive with these. Good chance to take this but has burned a LOT of money in the past.
10- Elfies Dream: Will be dreaming of beating one or two fillies this race.
11- Katie's Court: Sports a couple of works and a hot J/T combo. Should do alright at this level.
12- Cicada Sunrise: gets some lasix but will need some steroids to get going here.

The picks: I'll go with the lightly raced Peaceful Pleasure and throw in the 3, 8, and 9 in some combos.

The tix:
$10 exactas: 2 w/ 3,8,9
$5 exactas: 3,8,9 w/ 2
$5 exact box 2 w/ 11
$.10 supers: 2 w/ 3,8,9,11 w/ 3,8,9,11 w/ ALL
3,8,9,11 w/ 2 w/ 3,8,9,11 w/ ALL
3,8,9,11 w/ 3,8,9,11 w/ 2 w/ ALL
$.10 super box 2,3,8,9,11

That should be $30 + $15 + $10 + $32.40 + $12 = $99.40

Good luck to you and especially to these fillies and mares!

Posted by: John C. on July 01, 2009 at 07:52 PM

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HG 140

$10 tri 3/2/4589,11
$5 tri 3/4589,11/2
$2 tri key 3/289
$5 ex bx 2-3
$1 sup 3/2/9/48,12

I know it looks chalky!

Posted by: buffalo joe on July 01, 2009 at 07:57 PM

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Turf Ruler:

The "Mad Dogs" like the 77-1 that got me last week do not always come up in a race, let alone do what the one did. This race turned out to be for me anyway the most straighforward of any race I have done of the HG races using the method Ray and I do.

Posted by: Walt on July 01, 2009 at 07:58 PM

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HG 140
I agree with most that this is an unplayable race with real money. If none of these nags are vanned off, I will be surprised. The 2-3-9 seem to be playable. To win HG 140, I need to project the 4 as the key horse off the long layoff + slow works. The 2 has OK connections + is included on top of trifecta wager.
$61 win on #4.
$3.00 Trifecta
# 2,4
WT # 2,3,9
WT # 2,3,9,10
$39.00

Posted by: Jim Peregoy on July 01, 2009 at 07:58 PM

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in response to p ensign, here are some line thoughts.
My line is the following
1= 20-1 no vibes rolling here.
2=6-1 no money finishes.
3= 5-2 woodbine shipper the favorite but the surface, who knows.
4= 6-1 the lord needs to help the preacher.
5=20-1 too me she just runs around thetrack.
6= 30-1 does not seem to run much.
7= 20-1 cant see it.
8=4-1 2 yrs. ago beyers blow everybody away and beat 8 others in dec 2008. my pick in my ml compared to ml of 12-1 i say ml 4-1.
9=3-1 second off a layoff lets get it on.
10= 20-1 keep dreamin.
11= 30-1 katie missed her date.
12= 8-1 outside shot for some dough.
Hey pe i hope this clears up the muddled mess.
Dale

Posted by: dale tillotson on July 01, 2009 at 08:00 PM

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HDG 140:

5 to 10 minutes to post, so I will be brief. Yes, she doesn't like to win, but she is by far the most consistent of this bunch and will hopefully get a dry track for the forst time in 3 races...Key the 9 with 3 (good first time w/ trainer stats and is dropping way down but comes in off a layoff) and the 11 (drops to lowest level yet.

$12 TRI PW: 9 / 3-11 / 3-5-8-11-12

and

$2 TRI PW: 9 / 3-11 / 3-11

Dale

Posted by: Dale on July 01, 2009 at 08:01 PM

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Almost forgot to make another foolish stab at vertical horseplaying...
HG140: "THE UNFORGETTABLE"
#8 Spanish Breeze cuts back in distance 2nd off layoff. Was once good - Upset candidate
#2 Peaceful Pleasure keeps dropping in the MC ranks, is on her 3rd trainer in 4 races and her 3rd racing circuit. Time to compete? - another upset candidate
Even if her WO Beyer are overinflated, #3 Greshie Bay appears to be the fastest (if ready.) - good chalk
#12 Cicada Sunrise gets FTL - upset underneath.
#9 Mine always picks up a check - chalk for underneath.
WAGER:
$3TRI #2,3,8/2,3,8/2,3,8,9,12 = $54
$2TRI #2,3,8/2,3,8,9,12/2,3,8 = $36
$5WP #8
Good luck tonight!

And BEBC...tell Michael CONGRATULATIONS!!

Posted by: Alan on July 01, 2009 at 08:02 PM

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HG first timer

$2tri 4,9/3,4,8,9/2,3,4,5,7,8,9,11,12

$8exacta box 4,8

Don't like anyone, but, will take a shot.

Posted by: Fred on July 01, 2009 at 08:03 PM

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looks like jerry by the length of the stretch...

Posted by: p ensign on July 01, 2009 at 08:23 PM

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I need help verifying why Cleisthenes was a Vet scratch June 11th. That's what the form lists him as but the CHRB and HollyPark websites have nary a mention of him. The up and coming Savu is in against him and will be a price but I'd like to nail down whether it was injury or illness.

Any ideas?

Posted by: Mathieu on July 01, 2009 at 08:28 PM

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Walt,

agree with you on big money attractingbig horse. Thery have a couple races at Delta Downs every year young horses where the purse is a cool mil andthat place isa dump of a track but has a slots casino (Apologies tocaseyjeaux if delta is your home track).

Slew, this is very difficult for me to say to you but good luck with future races of Port Bonheur. The nose victory sunday cost me the late pick 4 but if the hotrse is one of your favs, well then, all may be forgiven.

Van Savant,

How is EVD going for you tonight?

bigEasyBigChok

Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on July 01, 2009 at 09:01 PM

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I think Ghanaati is well suited to the BC Classic. She's a lot like Raven's Pass and Henrythenaviator, the 1,2 finishers of last years BC Classic. The BC Classic at Santa Anita is well suited for uro milers as we saw last year. After last years result I'd be licking my chops if Ihad a top Euro miler.

Posted by: Captain Bodgit on July 01, 2009 at 10:11 PM

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cayman01;

Put me down for $72 even. Crazy race.

I saw Russ had $100 to Win on the 9. Nice going to him, and everyone who managed to cash a ticket.

Posted by: Van Savant on July 01, 2009 at 10:13 PM

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HG 140:

Well, I wasn't too far off in picking Peaceful Pleasure today. My mistake was not splitting the bet to win AND place, but I guess I thought that wouldn't be enough to win the HG.

I was hoping that she would win and a longshot that no one had would finish second and I could win this with a win bet. But good old Mine decided to finally win a race. Oh well.

I was right to stay away from the two plummeting maidens, as they only managed 4th and next to last. Md Sp drop to Md Cl can often be a good bet, but not when they drop all the way to the bottom. I figure either they got hurt, or the connections realized they just have no talent and want to unload them.

Congrats to all who cashed a ticket, and especially to the winner!

Annie

Posted by: Annie on July 01, 2009 at 11:42 PM

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thanks Dale

Posted by: p ensign on July 01, 2009 at 11:49 PM

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BigChok;

Thanks for asking. I was about $90 out (after scratches), and about $84 in (again, after scratches). Those changes discombobulated my Superfecta wagers, but probably saved me a bit in my Exacta wagering.

I actually think I have the hang of this place. I review the charts daily, make my notes, and then handicap the Wednesday night card, playing with a small bankroll. I am down about $20 after three weeks, and I have yet to light up a big Superfecta. I am confident that if I keep plodding along in this manner, minimizing losses as I go, I will nail a few larger payouts (~$500 or so on a dime Superfecta). That will pay for a lot of sins as I proceed.

The track is playable, entertaining, and really not that fluky. I just haven’t found my fluky with the right combinations, but hey, this is not a sprint.

Nights like this, including the HandiGambling exercise, bear-witness to the difficulty of this game. There are many, many top-notch handicappers on this site, and look at how we struggle!

Now get to work, good people…there remains work to be done…☺ (snort)!

Posted by: Van Savant on July 02, 2009 at 12:02 AM

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BigChok, congrats to your bro, btw, sorry about Porte Bonheur, I've mentioned her many times on the blog, I can't say I blame you for taking a shot against her last time, as I wasn't very confident given her lack of value and the distance. Usually, she's been overlooked in a number of her races. But she's a finisher (with nice tactical speed, my favorite kind of sprinter), and built like a bull up front, a true sprinter's body. I've been on her from the race where she beat Gilchrist's ill-fated filly last year, and she has been a highly profitable horse of interest. All systems are go with her, she's entered into the summit of speed, at 6 furlongs, not sure if they want to cut back now, however?

Btw, all, if you are looking to get a head start on the summit of speed, all the noms are posted at the calder website, with PPs for each nom, pretty damn cool, if you ask me.

Thanks, all, for your Saratoga help! Including e-mailers.

I got everything in terms of price and board action with that mule at Pleasanton today, except that it turned out to be a race for thoroughbreds. This game will humble.

The struggles continue (one step up, two steps back)........

Onward and ummm, you know.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 02, 2009 at 01:11 AM

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My current struggles (in cashing signers - the key to my success), I should mention, is related to the lack of background work - replay work, in my case - which is the key to the many signers I've had over the last year. I try and locate key horses that become the foundation of P4s/supers.

I'm not one of those players who can just read the form and locate key horses (not usually, anyway) - I hate those guys. smile

It's all about the work, for me, and I've been remiss, which is why I've struggled to break even lately.

Sometimes I like to sit back on my winnings and be the lazy procrastinator I am at heart. Bad habit.

The beautiful part is that whenever I want to get off my ass and work, I have the perfect job, because I really do enjoy the work. My issue is that I'm a caregiver for my mother, which can sap the energy, but I still love/need the action, so I'll sit down and play, regardless.

I'm not a professional player at the moment, so as long as I come out ahead, that's all that matters at years end. But at some point, I will become a professional, and my whole life will revolve around the work and the action. It's comforting to know that my future is settled, in that respect, and that I have the luxury and passion to do this thing of ours. In many ways, I can't wait. But I'm in no hurry.

I'm seriously considering poker as a future vocation, also, as a tournament player, but that's a small window because of the taxing nature of the game and my age (44). It's a young man's game. You have to be as sharp in that 8th hour as you are in the first. Older people tend to struggle with that. Not everyone. But I wouldn't expect it to be a strong suit of mine.

But someone has to be the first to win the world series of poker and the national handicapping championship.

And I'm just the fool who likes to dream big.

Hey, you have to have goals in life..........

smile

Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 02, 2009 at 01:43 AM

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I suspect that once my professional career begins that I will move to Vegas as a homebase, and that's because the greatest number of winning professional players (in horseracing and poker) reside there, and as a professional I think it's important to network (regardless of one's profession). I'm one of those people who loves to talk shop, talk strategy, and so on, and I can do it everyday, all day. I'm extremely passionate about gambling, and it's those intellectual varibles that make it exciting for me. It's a highly intellectual undertaking, and while many non-intellectual types appear to do well, the truth is, those types typically have large IQs, so the intellectual variable is built-in, yet hidden from view by choice or by the manner in which the individual carries himself (or herself). Gambling is one area of expertise that it's best not to judge the player by anything but his play.

I have great admiration, btw, for the female pros, in poker, anyway (I don't know any who play the horses). I am so surprised that they make up such a small portion of the professional set, although their small numbers give them an advantage, imo.

I suppose Negraneu is the player I most admire and the player I would try to emulate. Making a correct read, or great laydown (playing great defense) is what fires me up. When I watch the wosp on the tube I am amazed at how the "average" player is a calling station. And if they have top pair, top kicker, fuhhgetaboutit. But like horseracing, it's the "average" player that makes it possible for the "pro" to exist. You need players who are not quite (not nearly, in some cases) as good as they think they are. I truly believe that the best gamblers have the consistent understanding that they must alway humble thy self, and that can mean different things to different people, and it has nothing to do with the bravado that some players use to fuel their focus. You know the old saying, if you can't look around the table and find the sucker, you're it. And that's a condition that can happen to anyone at anytime, regardless of skill (imo).

Has anyone here played in the world series of poker (any of the events) or the world poker tour? Would love to hear your thoughts, if it won't upset the formblog applecart.

shuffle up and off....

Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 02, 2009 at 02:54 AM

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Well, at least Borel is now off of MTB and can concentrate on whatever ride he wishes. Meanwhile, let's hope the Kentucky Derby winner can get a jockey who will stay in the saddle.

It's not like MTB was some fluke. A legit Derby winner that just happened to find his best form and style before the run for the roses.

Tinky,

All in all, you are probably on to something with Summer Bird. I was intentionally emphasizing the point because I believe the horse still has something to show and that horses that have recently won the Belmont Stakes have not gone on to continued success (in general). He certainly looks the real deal and his Belmont was legit in my book.

IMHO, the horse simply has not done enough yet to be in the top 4 three year old group, although I understand the draw in promoting a race that features the Derby, Preakness and Belmont winners.
That is not to say SB will not be in the top 3 or 4; just not yet.

I certainly believe SB is much more of a solid stakes contender and classical threat than Da tara. Its a shame his best form (10-12 furlongs) will be limited to 1 more race this year at that distance (unless plans change dramatically).

His Haskell should be interesting...

Slew,

the female poker players I have seen on TV, and the ones that frequent the Poker Rooms in Florida's race tracks, are certainly easier on the eyes than the men are...

I can see why you might want to "network" with some of the PTs I have seen. Who knowa, you may be a Vegas sort of guy.

Re: Baffert and Dr. Fager...

Put me down for Fager as well, except I do not think Big Red could have caught that one at 1 mile, either. Fager was carrying 139 and well above that entire summer that he set the world record for 1 mile. Anything over 1 mile perhaps, although Fager as lone speed at 9 and 10 panels was a force as well.

Without a rabbit to engage him, Dr. Fager was too strong and too fast for any slower closer to run down at any distance between 5-10 panels. If Fager could control the pace, any horse (Damascus, Buckpasser, Big Red, name your horse) would have been running for second IMHO.

A tremendous racehorse, perhaps the most underrated champion of all time.

Posted by: vicstu on July 02, 2009 at 08:17 AM

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Asked of Fager's jockey:

What do you remember about Dr. Fager as a mount?
BB:"One of the fastest horses alive. The fastest horse on the track. He could punch a hole in the wind."

Punch a hole in the wind? Man, that is fast...and according to the jockey (BB), he was a big, powerful Alpha male horse that hated to see another horse get in front of him. Attacked In Reality like a savage dog for trying to stick a head in front of him...also claimed while setting the world record for 1 mile he eased Fager up; they could have won by more!

http://www.brauliobaeza.com/hoy_dr_fager.html

Also see:
http://www.eclipsepress.com/mediaroom/pdf/Top100_ex.pdf

And here is a video of Fager's world record mile:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wVBNbmcaAE

Posted by: vicstu on July 02, 2009 at 08:49 AM

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Whackymacky,

Your devotion to Chantal is admirable. However, I would be shocked if she got the mount. Remeber, she was on MTB in the BC. I also do not see the connections as the type that would select her because of the "hype" a female jockey might produce. They realize they have a good horse and want to win. I think the poor finish in the BC has just turned them off to her. If I was in their place, I think I would look around for a young up and coming jockey. Someone who does not have longstanding connections with select barns. MTB has the potential to be around for a long time, so I would want to stay away from the current top jocks whose established relations might produce the same type of problems again.

Midwest Ed

Posted by: Midwest Ed on July 02, 2009 at 09:51 AM

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Mathieu-
Regarding vet scratches, they're often used by trainers who just decided that a race came up too tough or the word has gotten out that if they run the horse it will be claimed. Vets are a little bit (OK, a lot) gunshy about making a horse run if the trainer says there are problems-here at Arlington the only "penalty" is that if you're a vet scratch you can't run back for a week. (Our Tatum Girl was a vet scratch a couple of weeks ago and our trainer is putting his son on him to ride, so it's a safe bet the horse is sound) After being involved in the partnership, my strong advice is to COMPLETLY IGNORE vet scratches when handicapping unless you have a LONG layoff following the vet scratch or you have indapendent, reliable knowledge of an injury or illness.

Posted by: Stephen L Taylor on July 02, 2009 at 09:51 AM

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Slew,

My hubby has been in the World Series, and you nailed it in one sentence..."You need players who are not as good as they think they are" add some humility somewhere in your own play and you have the seeds for success. Your comments about the ability to concentrate in the 8th hour as well is the 1st is completely correct. Couple that with the limited breaks and poor food and beverage choices of some.......Good luck in your choices.

Mike and Virgin Queen,

The high beyer for the last race at Monmouth when Katie and I were there on a stakes day was (I believe) a 26. If I am not correct, I am only off a couple of points. Two horses had posted negative 0 beyers!

As for the fate of these animals, all of whom were beautiful and noble, the dinner table comment was beyond sickening and unfortunately probably accurate.

Posted by: turnbackthealarm on July 02, 2009 at 10:13 AM

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TBTA and SR Vegas:
So, when are we going to see the "IMP" run again? I thought Shug was going to point him to the Dwyer after taking him off the Triple Crown Trail with his Wood acting up? Instead, we got the crazy try at a Grade 1 mile facing older for this definite router?

I'd like to bet this horse again sometime this year...but he's in the barn for now, apparently?

Posted by: Keith L. on July 02, 2009 at 10:47 AM

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Mr. Ed:
Even the up and comers usually get into symbionic relationships with trainer/owner connections. Look at Joe Talamo, for example, riding for Ellis...before the romance stuff happened.

I think MTB's connections would do well to get on the phone with Alex Solis and agent: a veteran jock who knows how to sit on a late rush runner until its time to go. Too, he's well familiar with the Saratoga course if they want to run in the Travers, and he knows the Poly at Santa Anita like the back of his hand for the BC Classic possibility.

Posted by: Keith L. on July 02, 2009 at 10:58 AM

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Just saw on the Twin Creeks website that Mission Impazible has been scratched from the Bashford Manor. No reason given.

Posted by: Joel on July 02, 2009 at 11:20 AM

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Oh, this is sad. The 2007 Swale winner who was also 4th by 1 length in the 2007 Fountain of Youth, ADORE THE GOLD, is running in a $5K claiming race at CD on Sat.

It looks like he may have been hurt in that year's Florida Derby, because he had one good race 7 months later and has not it the board since, making only $6186 in 2008. He hasn't raced since November and now is in for $5K. He still has all his equipment, too, so I guess that's all they figure he's worth. What a shame.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on July 02, 2009 at 11:35 AM

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Mathieu,

Track vets in California are a completely different animal, so to speak, than in Illinois.

Cleisthenes was scratched by Jill Bailey for being “sick.” I no longer archive CHRB lists but I assume that Cleisthenes did go on the list after the scratch. I am sure Dr. Bailey has encountered Sadler enough times not to play games.

Here is the link to the weekly stewards report.

http://www.chrb.ca.gov/Minutes_Hollywood_Park/Minutes_HP_09_06_14.pdf

Posted by: TejanoRun on July 02, 2009 at 11:35 AM

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Today’s in the money finishes.

Trianera Whip -- is entered to run on July 2, 2009 at CHARLES TOWN
Race: 8 Distance: Seven Furlongs Surface: Dirt Age: 3 – Colt
Race Type: Allowance Purse: $ 29,000 Jockey: Luis A. Batista
Trainer: Ezequiel M. Rolon Last Raced: 06/20/2009 at COLONIAL DOWNS in Race 5

Comments: Checked angled to rail finishing third in Allw turf. Set the pace weakened finishing out of the mone in Allw. Rated circle wide finished willingly and gamely to finish second in Claiming Race. SCRATCH from race 04-02-09 at Laurel

Blame -- is entered to run on July 2, 2009 at CHURCHILL DOWNS.
Race: 10 Distance: One Mile Surface: Dirt Age: 3 – Colt
Race Type: Allowance Purse: $ 50,200
Jockey: Jamie Theriot Trainer: Albert M. Stall, Jr.
Last Raced: 06/12/2009 at CHURCHILL DOWNS in Race 10

Comments: Outsprinted early finished well finishing third in Allw at Churchill.

Selecting Backbackbackgone for the win at Hollywood in this one.

Backbackbackgone -- is entered to run on July 2, 2009 at HOLLYWOOD PARK.
Race: 7 Distance: One Mile Surface: Turf Age: 3 – Colt
Race Type: Allowance Optional Claiming Purse: $ 50,000
Jockey: Mike E. Smith Trainer: Peter Miller
Last Raced: 06/18/2009 at HOLLYWOOD PARK in Race 7

Comments: Dueled stalked and weakened in the stretch finishing out of the money in turf Stakes. Dueled between rivals then stalked the leader dropped back in stretch and weakened finishing out of the money in GR III. Winner had good early speed dueled inched away won clear in Turf Stakes at Hollywood Park.

Posted by: TurfRuler on July 02, 2009 at 11:55 AM

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I think Jeremy Rose would be the perfect Jock for MTB. He's a tough rider who I think would get along well with Wooley. He knows how to wait, has won in big races at all the major tracks in the NE and most of his regular business is with stables that don't have any big name horses, so there shouldn't be any conflicts.

Posted by: Joel on July 02, 2009 at 12:20 PM

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Stephen Taylor,

So you've seen the Vet scratch leveraged to squirm out of a tight spot for owners/trainers? I'll have to add that to my book of explainations when encountering them. I do have a time tested read when they are significant though, at least here in California. A claimer making repeated drops coming off a Vet scratch that is ice cold on the board for his resume. This is another method of ID'ing false favorites.

TejanoRun,

Nice pluck on Cleisthenes. I do not believe he is on the Vet's list as I went over it by date and then name but I did not think to review the minutes.

BTW-What is Jerry Moss doing on the CHRB? Does any clear thinking individual believe there is conflict of interest potential having owners sit on the ruling body for the state?

Thank you both for the feedback.

*

Vicstu,

My favorite part of the two articles you posted was Nerud ASKING for 145lbs on the Doctor for his Vosburgh finale. And the racing secretary backing off to "only" 139. I'd like to see that kind of confidence in the Moss/Sheriffs and Jess Jackson camps.

*

Slew,

When you move to Vegas if I get a couple of Administrative Assistants named Boom Boom and Stacks may I be the Binzer to your Dan Tanna?

Posted by: Mathieu on July 02, 2009 at 01:29 PM

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Slew,

So that is why I can never identify the sucker at the table.

For me poker is able about patience and managing your stack – I am not good enough to always be able to play the other people at the table; thus, I have to wait for cards sometimes and that means making sure you have enough chips so you are not forced to risk your stack on a hand where you know/think you do not have a good chance of winning. The closest I ever got to the WSOP was an online qualifying tournament where the winner earned a WSOP seat. I got lucky on a few hands and was in the top 10 after the first break. That is when I came back to reality and I think I busted out within the next 20 minutes. I still am not really sure what happened. The other odd thing is I have never played in a poker tournament with real chips. My brother-in-law and I even went to a casino to play in a “live” tournament earlier this year, and they used computer screens and automatic tables.

What does this all have to do with horseracing? Well, it is funny, but I can spend two days handicapping a race card and watching race replays, get up on race day and wait six or more hours until the races begin, and (at least lately) wait until the races I am really interested in run without craving any “action.” However, get me at a poker table and let me go a few hands without any playable cards, and suddenly I think I am bullet proof with my pair of “4”s. I guess it is a different type of patience/discipline.

------

June was a weird month for me. I did have some good scores (well at least they were good-sized for my bankroll – no signers though), but my quest to have a positive ROI at AP kind of stagnated. I turned a net loss of $40 at the beginning of the month into a net loss of $50. To only go down another $10 is not that bad for me and still gives me a chance to end up in the black. However, the bad part is that thanks to some picks from Steven Taylor, I was even going into Sunday, June 28. But, thanks to some poor handicapping and wagering decisions, I ended up back in the red. While disappointed in my handicapping and decision making, I am not too mad at myself over my wagering. What does have me somewhat upset is the fact that I went the whole month of June without ever making it to the actual track. Playing on-line and watching TVG/HRTV is great, but you really do need to get out and see some live races regularly.

That is all going to change in July. I have some trips to the track scheduled, starting off with this Friday. Earlier this week, the wife informed me that we were going to a hot air balloon launch on Friday morning in the Chicago area. Somehow, I talked her and her friend whose family is also going to the balloon launch to stay in the Chicago area for the day and take in the fireworks display at AP later that night.

Stephen Taylor – It sounds like you will not be needing too many people to buy you drinks this weekend, but if you are interested, I would be more than willing to buy you one on Friday. I think it is the least I can do to thank you for the picks you submitted last weekend.

----
Well on to some actual racing and handicapping. I am going to try to post so thoughts on races at Arlington Park today and tomorrow.

Midwest Ed

Posted by: Midwest Ed on July 02, 2009 at 01:33 PM

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TejanoRun,

Whoa! That was interesting. I'm glad to see that they keep on top of things in Calif. and enforce some rules. That's a start.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on July 02, 2009 at 01:58 PM

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Virgin Queen
Contrary to what you say and meaning no disrespect the 4th at Penn isn't a typical race even for a bull ring. If you've ever been on the backstretch of one of these tracks you've seen what a trainer has to do to get one of these horses ready to race. If you haven't I suggest you find a way to.
As far as betting? yes you pretty much would have to have a hate relationship with your bankroll to bet these horses, the 9 finally won after burning money 7 times. I hope you collected. With the multitude of betting opportunities through simulcasting and OTB's there is no reason to bet horses like these. If you stop prehaps they'll stop putting them out there race after race till they're to cripple to run anymore. They run because they were born to, not to make you happy or cash a bet. Mike

Posted by: mike on July 02, 2009 at 02:24 PM

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Hmm, just a thought. The editorials over at espn.com are just blasting Jackson for not running on int he BC. Geez, I wonder if that is because ESPN televises the Breeder's Cup? Glad I'm just a blogger without and not a news writer with a big brother corporation to answer to.

They also seems to shove synthetics down the throat and they always call the Distaff the "Ladies Classic." At least Steve Crist and Steve Haskin can openly say that was a dumb mistake.

I must just be in a foul mood. However, I could care less about the BC this year. It statred last year w/ Ladies Day and the 10000 new races. Granted I thought a few additional races were needed but really.

Also, I agree with whoever said that if Zenyatta connections cared about horse of the year, she would have run in the big Cap and Gold Cup already (or very soon) I love Einstien but really. Zenyatta would have had a good chance in that field. Also Zenyatta didn't run until June so she can only be the 7/12 of year-horse of the year. (Okay I realize other champions have had short campaigns, but I'm kind of bitter about the Big Cap thing.) So, for me it's only part that she's not leaving CA, staying in CA and beating open competition int he biggest races would have been different.

Done ranting.

Posted by: Lawduck07 on July 02, 2009 at 02:54 PM

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ROTD 8th @Belmont

#1 DANCE GAL DANCE is dropping from an open stakes to this NY bred listed. Should be the controlling speed.
#5 JUST ZIP IT. Turf to dirt is 44% for the barn. should sit outside just off the speed. 15-1 ML

The other 4 horses are evenly matched with the #2 BEAM OF LOVE and #6 NORTHERN NETTI 2nd off significant layoffs.

The bet: $30 ex. 1-5
$20 ex. 1/3,6
$20 ex. 5-1
$5 ex. 5/3,6

Good luck!

Posted by: billg on July 02, 2009 at 03:17 PM

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Joel,
Thanks for the tip on Mission Impazible!

Everyone,
Make plans for the Handicapping Chat covering the Stakes races on July 4th. The details are at Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds. Everyone is welcome, especially Dan's niece, Olivia! Also, the analysis for the Bashford Manor Stakes is available; a half brother to Bsharpsonota is in there along with some other well-bred youngsters. This weekend, don’t miss out on the classy babies being unveiled. Saturday, I’ll do a quick rundown of the two year old maiden races from across the country. If your weak spot is handicapping two year old maiden races, you might want to check it out at http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com.

Posted by: Laura on July 02, 2009 at 03:29 PM

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Laura;

That period at the end of your link (.com.) negates your link.

I look forward to joining the chat tomorrow night, and I appreciate you reminding/inviting us to your site.

Posted by: Van Savant on July 02, 2009 at 03:48 PM

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Arlington Park 7/2/09

AP #5 – Have been following Stephen Taylor’s #5 TRIPPIT since he started posting about him on the blog. I have even bet him a few times. I have lost ever one. Will that stop me from betting him again? No way. We want to see S. Taylor in the winner’s circle again.

AP #6 (1 M Turf, 3 & up F/M, ALW $41.48K)

#1 SARAHTHETIGER – Definitely has a chance, but she was claimed from Calabrese and Junior is off. I will play against here.
#2 ADVISABLE – Love the connections (they are hitting at 17%) and she is 3-1-1-0 on the turf. I will probably regret this, but I am going to play against her because I think the pace of the race will be against her and her jockey is only 9% on the turf.
#3 SHADOW GIANT – Has the breeding, but it will be her first against winners and she too will be fighting for it on the front end.
#4 FORD GALLOP – Tries a route. Is looking like the wise guy choice and these connections are dangerous when they team up. Pace could be right for her.
#5 GREEN IS FOR GO – Gets back to 1 M on the grass (the conditions of her lone win this year). Will be a contender.
#6 FLUID GRACE – Is my bomb for the day. The talk about her is that she does not have the form to compete. I will take a different take. To me, it looks like it took her four races to figure out what she was doing. She figured it out at a mile on the grass in Tampa and then ran competitively in her next start. I think you can toss her last (off the turf) and the placing suggests the connections think she is good enough.
#7 CIELO PINTADO – Tries a route and is another who will be on the front end.
#8 JENNA LU HU – Could be the speed of the speed, but she will not get any breaks and it looks like her tough luck could continue again today.

AP #7 (1 M, 3 & up, OC $40K)

#1 PUBLISH – Has the right running style for this, but Janks is still cold.
#2 FOUR TO GO – 2-2 at 1 M at AP and will get pace. Enough for me.
#3 HURTA – Will be the speed, but must handle the one-turn mile.
#4 IT’S NEVER TO LATE – A Calabrese horse, so it could be dangerous to play against. However, is another who wants to run on the front end. Also, shouldn’t it be It’s Never “Too” Late?
#5 TROJAN WAR – Love the connections and think this one might bounce back from that last poor performance. He will have to be the best of the speed though, so I will have to only play him as a sentimental back up.
#6 OUGHTA BE MINE – Agree with Stephen Taylor (and a couple of other AP public handicappers) that this one is a live long shot. I am particularly intrigued by his last work. I thought I heard the AP track was getting really hard and fast. Horses were working lighting fast. So they brought in a new machine to till the Poly better/deeper. I could be all wrong about the situation, but if his :47-3 for 4F came on this deeper track, could be razor sharp.

AP #8 (1 M Turf), 3 & up, ALW $31.5K)

#1 BLYDE RIVER BOY – Up against it for sure, but a must include for me based on the Silva/Hazelton connections (boy are they having a rough meet, but things might be heating up as they won R#3 today).
#2 LIGHTHOUSE PRIDE – Took him 13 tries to break his maiden. Will look elsewhere.
#3 BUD SYMONDS – 0-3 on the turf. This is not the strongest bunch.
#4 ALL IN SLEW – Has a good name (smile), but is speed coming in off a layoff. Not sure he can stay.
#5 MASTER COMMANDER – SCRATCH
#6 BRAZEN ZIP – He will probably shock the world at huge odds, but I agree he is way over matched in here.
#7 STANLEY G. – The one to beat, and I think it can be done.
#8 CLOUD CASTLE – Has the breeding and should be set for a top effort, but I have settled elsewhere.
#9 FULL FLAME – Agree with others that this guy could be the one to upset the #7. I am hoping his three most recent off the board finishes floats his price up high.

The Plays (or at least what I am considering):

R#5:
DD #5 / #4, #6
P4 #5 / #6 / #6 / #9 (a Slew special – smile)

R#6:
W/P #4
P/S #6
DD #6 / #5, #6
P3 #4 / #2, #6 / #9

R#7
EX BOX #2, #6
EX #2, #6 / #5
DD #2, #6 / #7, #9

R#8
W/P #9
W #1
EX #7, #9 / #7, #8, #9
SUPER BOX #1, #7, #8, #9

Midwest Ed

Posted by: Midwest Ed on July 02, 2009 at 03:50 PM

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I am not saying they are all of great quality ( they are all good ), but, the United Nations is a highly contested race. I can make a legitimate argument for anyone in the race. It is not often I see a nine horse field so competitively carded in a graded stakes of any kind. The old men Brass hat and Better Talk Now both are coming off solid efforts, should be fun. Five of the nine are gelded and range from five years too 10 ( Better Talk Now ).

Court Vision looks the best, but, I think he is vulnerable and looks to me like a play underneath, in exotics. I will have to watch the board closely on this one as we are sure to get a nice underlay/overlay situation.

Posted by: Fred on July 02, 2009 at 05:07 PM

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So, with all this talk about Racheel and the BC and Jess Jackson not wanting to go and all the subsequent talk about Curlin not being the same horse, I went back and rewatched Curlin's last three races. In the Woodward he looked like he labored but the announcer also talked about how well speed was holding and Curlin was the only horse that closed in the pace. In the JCGC has won without the whip ever coming out and the whole field was wide coming off the final turn. In BC Classic I truely don't feel Curlin lost because of the synthetic. I think he might have been a step slower (just like I don't think his one grass effort was that bad either since in that race I discount the two crazies that went 22 and change and say RR controlled the race within the race, but I think even a step slower he could have won. While I normally like Robby, I think his ride was horrendous going that wide. I think he should have waited to pull the trigger. Maybe by that point he was overconfident and had he rode Curlin like any other horse he might have won. It's just a shame Curlin had to go out on a bad note. Too bad they didn't run him in the Clark and maybe he coul dhave gone out on a good note.

With that being said, I think Rachel is a different story because of her running style. Synhetics aren't kind to speed generally. Ask Indian Blessing who is a speed horse that although no totally destroyed on the sythetic stuff surely isn't her best.

Also, speaking of Indian Blessing and what she's done since Dubai, another thing that gets lost with Curlin is the supposed Dubai jinx. Curlin did a lot after Dubai where many horses don't. Maybe in hindsight his accomplishments will be given their due.

Posted by: Lawduck07 on July 02, 2009 at 06:57 PM

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Handigambling 140 Recap:

It's JERRRY by the length of the stretch. he hit a $100 cold exacta for $1910.Second went to alfredo with a $50 EX.
And completing the tri was molesap who hit the tri for $4 and a total of $568.40.

Once again the EXACTA is the winning combo. There's a trend here folks.

Also a special attaboy goes out to VAN SAVANT who has shown the value of saver bets. He has cashed in 12 of the 25 races in this year's HG, by far the most, and sits thrid in total dollar return with over $4000.Excellent ticket construction to go along with some fine handicapping.Well done sir!

Spreadsheet is still here:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pbWiA1VmZWoVb6aFdAVqfLg&hl=en

jerrry, please select a race for next week by the weekend so we can get a start on catching up to VS!

BTW, for as crappy a race as it was the handicapping here was pretty good. There were several players who did not cash but noodled out the ITM horses but played them with the wrong one on top. Slew comes to mind as having all four on his tickets but constructing them like me and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But then again he stands at $666 total and won't get off that schide til he goes ALL SHOW in one of his wagers (smile).

Posted by: cayman01 on July 02, 2009 at 09:47 PM

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Really like the 11 horse in last at churchill, Fort Apache. Hope to get 3-1 but will not bet at less than 5/2 and I wheeled him to all in 10th in the late double.

BigEasyBigChok

Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on July 02, 2009 at 10:06 PM

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Also, made a saver exb 10-11 in samerace.

helloooo Don Julio!!

BEBC

Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on July 02, 2009 at 10:07 PM

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cayman01;

Thank you very much for your “attaboy”, because I can use this as a platform to describe what I am trying to learn from these exercises. I remember when we started this, the goal was to see how we construct wagers on different races, and to learn from those experiences. Uncle Steve has a theory about “collective intelligence”, and I subscribe to much of what he theorizes. As it applies to HandiGambling, the actual goal of this is to learn our weaknesses, or strengths, and what our fellow FormBloggers think when they attack a particular race. A lofty goal no doubt, and by no means is it ever achievable because the game changes daily, and from race to race. Better said, the goal is not an end; rather, it is a means to an end. I know that sounds contradictory, but think about it.

When you began calculating and posting the results of these exercises, they took on an additional value in that we could see how our peers performed in these races, and then go back and maybe see why. Certainly not a definitive example of the individual or collective abilities of the group, but perhaps a clue, no?

When Dan introduced the lavish prize to the weekly winner, I never feared that focus would be lost. I am not sure how that has affected FormBlog.

I do know that it has not affected me, despite being the recipient of the lavish gifts. My goal remains…show a profit, and hopefully demonstrate how I do it. That is the payoff. Heck, I won a week with a $235 payout.

I laugh when Alan (forgive me Alan) states that he can’t construct a wager vertically, yet if you look at what he has done in HandiGambling, he is showing a profit…). Incredible. Imagine what his “real” ledger looks like…!!! (sorry friend, but you are the best at this that I have seen).

Look at molesap…look at how he constructs his wagers, and the complexity and thought that goes into these. Every week, despite the outcome, I am amazed at the thought process, and what I learn from him.

Look at Kyri as well. She is usually spot-on, or very close. There is valuable stuff there, and because of the way she handicaps races, I pay attention to what she posts (it is uncanny that I tend to agree with her almost all of the time…we apparently have very similar processes).

Tejanorun, Mike Romeo, Dale and Peter Vescovo are always making noise in this too, and what/how they wager apparently works.

So I guess that my point here is that winning an exercise is cool…very cool, and the prize is amazing, but the real payoff will come through learning a disciplined wagering approach, coupled with an awful lot of luck.

What a cool place. ☺

Posted by: Van Savant on July 02, 2009 at 11:53 PM

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Anybody like Fabulous Strike this weekend?

He's an A1 false favorite to me. The race is heavily slanted Munnings way as I see it.

*

I needed to look forward to something as it is now five hours after the race but I'm still steaming over Solis' ride on Savu this afternoon.

Posted by: Mathieu on July 03, 2009 at 12:02 AM

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Van Savant,
Thanks for the compliment but my strength is really multi-race wagers, especially P4s. I don't play TRIs and SUPERs often anymore (my horseplaying is less than half as much since my dad died) and have yet to get a W2G from a vertical wager this year. I have only played my HandiGambling wagers a few times and my ROI on those occasions is $0.00!!

Equibase has a free WP contest (with minimal prizes...but what do you expect for free?) this Saturday. NHC-style rules apply.
You can enter here: http://www.equibase.com/handicappingContest/index.cfm

Posted by: Alan on July 03, 2009 at 01:16 AM

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Mathieu, I'm sure this will p/o a few fans, but Solis is not what he once was, and while I'm sure most of us share the belief that, ultimately, jockey choice is secondary in weight to the horse and trainer, I'm of the belief that quality race-riding, in general, is on the decline.

As a casual observer, and as a bettor, I have taken a mental note of rides in the last year that have opened my eyes to this new reality. Very basic skills, the ability to finish effectively, for example, are simply non-existent in a far greater number of instances than at anytime in recent memory. I think there has been a slow, steady decline in rider skill. It takes more than guts.

One will likely see the effects of this more readily at smaller tracks, B tracks, and so on, but check your local listings if you are in a major thoroughbred region, because this decline has not spared the elite racing venues. And don't forget the older, once capable, riders who are now picking their spots as to when they really want to go all out, throwing caution to the wind. I would put Solis in that category, myself.

Jmo, of course.

Vic, that's funny, I don't see myself (necessarily) as a LV kind of guy, however, I do wear a gold necklace (and a white gold university necklace) and just one gold bracelet. smile What can I say, it's a sentimental thing with me, and the gold pattern (the name escapes me) is classy, not Las Vegas "chunky", if you will. So, I'm not too sure I fit the profile in that regard.

Las Vegas....??? I don't know, it could very well happen. My mother's brother (now deceased), who was critical (some have argued essential) in breaking the Japanese code(s) in WWII, a cryptology expert (he worked for the company in some now well known middle east countries, teaching in the native inteligence appartus in the 80s), he lived in Las Vegas for a time doing you know what (counting), until they banned him. That was frowned upon back then, I think it's legal now (why wouldn't it be?), but the way they switch decks I'm not sure the expectations are the same, in any case.

My uncle (army brat, like my mother) didn't even graduate high school, yet he taught in some of the highest learning institutions on the planet. Due to some of the established regulations requiring documented degrees, he actually was forced to resign in a few places. He was a self-taught man. He was a gambler. A publisher (of cryptology literature, but he also published freshly released NS documents like the espionage files surrounding america's biggest spy). A rotund man in his later years (he was a green beret in WWII, as well as cracking codes, a jumper), he wore a large grin in spite of yearly financial pinches, and that's what I remember about him as a child, he always seemed happy, that and the big, las vegas-style, chunky ring. He was a true LV kind of a guy, I think.

Cayman, I hear ya, I should take HG more seriously than I do, and I apologize. I know you weren't busting my bettys, but it got me to thinking, especially after reading Big Chok's take. Nice take, btw, BC.

A horse I was following for a while, You and I Forever is returning tommorrow, switching barns from Mott to Wolfson (no comment), cutting back to a sprint for first time in career. I wouldn't touch him at 5-2 (his M/L), but it's an event I will definitely be watching. This horse has inherent ability, and with Gann/Wolfson hitting on many fronts these days, I'm holding out hope (but that's all). Gann, btw, was the owner of Peace Rules (frankel), one of my all-time favorites (top 3).

MidwestEd, caught the reference. smile

O/U

Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 03, 2009 at 01:37 AM

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Sorry, I was referring Van Savant's take on HG, I have Big Chok on my mind, I guess.

smile

Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 03, 2009 at 01:41 AM

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slew;

Confusing me with BigChok is quite the compliment. Thank you kind sir!

Off to the swim meets. I have handicapped some races for tomorrow, and will try to post later today.

Posted by: Van Savant on July 03, 2009 at 08:48 AM

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According to the Churchill Downs program changes, there are no changes in the the 108th running of the Bashford Manor Stakes. Mission Impazible is not scratched.

Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on July 03, 2009 at 09:06 AM

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Virgin Queen,

I should have given the proper blogger his due, it was Jim Tully who said that the Handigambling field would soon turn up on a Japanese dinner table, not you or Mike.

Posted by: turnbackthealarm on July 03, 2009 at 09:20 AM

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Midwest Ed-It's gonna be a zoo today so I have no idea where I'll be -glad the picks worked out for you.

Also, I finally figured out how to play the Z5 affordably and with acceptable coverage (Hit it at Arlington yesterday-$400 plus-I was kind of disappointed, aren't they usually 4 figures?)
Here's an example of a $32 ticket: 1,2 w 1,2,3 w 1,2,3,4 w 1,2,3,4,5 w 1,2,3,4,5,6- Cost is acceptable for the potential reward, and I've got that "extra". (I've got a thing about having one horse having the potential to screw up my gimmix)

Here's what I like today, so y'all will know who not to bet on at Arlington

1st-6-Maxy Levens won't be much of a price but has been right there this level in last 2 and this is 3rd race off a brief vacation-1-Not Souh was in with much better last, and was competitive this level the race before that and 4-Triptane is prime top but the continuous drops alarm me.

2nd-7-Flying Flag ran a solid race last, shortens up and returns to poly-breeding says poly, tomlinson says sprint, he fits. 2-Unbridled Mon drops and ships in from Woodbine-last was better than it looks at first glance

3rd-WARNING-THIS IS OUR HORSE SO I'M PREDJUDICED! 2-Tatum Girl beat the ml favorite (3-Sassy Shore Breeze) the only time they met. To be honest if 6-Sky N Mighty runs back to her last race we're all runniing for 2nd but if is the biggest 2 letter word in the dictionary. I talked Mike into not entering for 10 last Saturday, we entered for 14 last Wednesday and the race didn't go so here we are. (I'll feel like a goof if Tatum doesn't run well, so I'm REALLY pulling for her) Note if you're handicapping the card that you can totally throw out the poly races last year (I better leave it at that) and that she got checked so hard her last race that Mike called the stewards and filed an objection-they actually looked at it for about 5 minutes)

4th-Speaking of being careful of what I say, after what I've heard the last few days I'm going to have to try to beat 6-Erdiston here. I gotta be careful how I say this but while he's got a heart the size of Texas, he's 8 years old, obviously has issues, and I'm not sold on coming back in 23 days. (Not ripping the connections, just explaining why he isn't my top pick-However because of his desire, he'll be on my tickets) Try to beat him with 1-Cure-claimed out of the 2 races before last, Magana didn't lose him last and bumps him up, a sign the horse is in good form and Hector wants to keep him-with Erdistion and 3-Go Bucky Go (drops after winning for 25?) in the race, the price should be right on Cure and you get Runnin Da Fences with him, who was selected on top by a local handicapper.

5th-4-Heart Thief only needs to get out of the gate more smoothly to win this-Hazelton's been around long enough to figure out how to do it.

6th-8-Lumen is the prime top by 9 points and barn has been paitient since the claim-works say he's ready to go.
2-West Web poly bred, first poly, obviously worried about 16 month layoff but taking a shot in the gimmix-6-Collidin the other polybred and only poly start (at Turfway) was at least ok and he was a firster in that race.

7th-6-Mojito Man and 7-Athiest will vie for favoritism and deserve it-I gave Mojito Man the edge based on a solid 2nd at the distance over this racetrack last summer. 3-Pirates Vow could sit off the leaders and get a nice trip at a nice price.

8th-Not many prices today but 3-Black Vicar is 10/1-wired a field of 17.5 maidens easily in last, and was actually claimed as a first time starter out of that race. Does move up in class but won so easily last there's no way to tell how good he really is-this could be one of those "special claims" that owners and trainers dream of!

9th-Another longie-1A-Gathering Kings will hopefully (for me) get the lead and speed seems to be holding a little bit better on turf than most would think. 15/1 and we also get Sword and Shield who actually ran a couple of ok races over this grass course last year. Wouldn't play him alone but wouldn't be a total shock if he won either.

10th-For me there's no way around 1-Colorado Trail-Huge drop BUT the stud fee was only 6k so it's not really a fire sale. I know he's gonna be a short price and as much as I hate chalk, I'd be really suprised if he got beat here.

Here's the HIFIVE for today ($32 ticket) 2,8 w 2,6,8 w 2,3,6,8 w 2,3,6,8,9 w 2,3,5,6,8,9 (If I post tomorrow that I hit it again I don't want to be accused of snowboarding or whatever somebody accused someone of a while back)

Posted by: Stephen L Taylor on July 03, 2009 at 09:29 AM

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Cayman01,

I believe you missed my wager on this week's HG race. For reference it was posted on 6/30 at 5:58pm. Wager on the #11 was 40 win 60 show for a $204 return.

Thanks for your service in keeping the official records.

Posted by: Mike Romeo on July 03, 2009 at 10:03 AM

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Virgin Queen
Perhaps you are right and I overstated my case. Being passionate about the horses will do that. I also realize none of those trainers would put a horse on the track who wasn't "right". I'll leave you with a story. My Dad, when he was younger wanted to be a jockey. He was a natural, small and strong as heck, he could tack 104lbs. without any difficulty. He was learning the trade from the Stable and trainer who raced Market Wise, who was co-handicap champ with Devil Diver in I believe 1943. My dad never got to work Market Wise, but did get to gallop him around the track for excersise. He said it was a thrill. Well as luck would have it WWII and my mom intervened and my Dad'a racetrack career ended, when he returned from overseas he went to work with his brothers in the concrete business.
Many years later, when I was married and had kids of my own we had a family outing at Rye Beach, an amusement park in Rye NY, just outside of the city. Being that, before I got married, I used to bet horses for a living and had many racetrack friends a few of them came along. Well there's this merry go round there, not your typical merry go round, this one I believe was called the Derby ( It's been awhile and I don't know if it's still there) it had all manner of racehorses on it and went much faster than a typical merry go round. Well my dad gets up on one of the "horses" and puts my oldest daughter in front of him, she was 3. With this, one of my racetrack pals turns to me and says " man your dad still sits a horse pretty good, I bet he still could make weight". I just looked at him kind of quizically, he continues, "Man if I could bet I'd put it all on your dad's horse. I looked at him and said " It's a Merry go round", he looked back as if to say "what"? That is a person with a gambling problem, not necessarily someone who bets 5,000 md. races at Penn national. Forgive me? Mike

Posted by: mike on July 03, 2009 at 10:40 AM

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