December 2009

Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat
		1	2	3	4	5
6	7	8	9	10	11	12
13	14	15	16	17	18	19
20	21	22	23	24	25	26
27	28	29	30	31

The Doctor is In.

Ah, the Suburban Handicap! Presidents come and go, and fads like the Rubik's Cube and the Hula Hoop dissolve over time, but the Suburban has been a constant on the racing calendar since Stromboli won the 1915 running at the old Empire City after the race took a one-year hiatus (Sam Jackson finished second that year, for you trivia buffs out there).
Before the breeding industry robbed us of our handicap horses, the Suburban was one of the three races that comprised the New York Handicap Triple Crown. Back in the day, the best of the best older runners locked horns in the Metropolitan Handicap, the Brooklyn Handicap, and the Suburban to find out who was top dog in the division. Only Whisk Broom II (1913), Tom Fool (1953), Kelso (1961), and Fit to Fight (1984) were able to pull off a clean sweep of the Triple.
There's been talk of Dr. Fager recently on FormBlog, and he did the 1968 Suburban proud by winning under 132 pounds. That season's Handicap Triple was hotly-contested to say the very least.
In Reality won the Metropolitan at Belmont on May 30 at 3-5 odds for owner Frances Genter, and the son of Intentionally came within 1/5th of Count Fleet's 26-year-track record.
To show the depth of the division, In Reality returned in the Suburban on Independance Day, and was dismissed as the 6-1 third choice in the field of five. Dr. Fager went favored at 4-5 with the great Damascus sent away at 7-5. Receiving one pound from Damascus, Dr. Fager went right to the front, and was never headed while equaling Gun Bow's track record of 1:59 3/5 for the 1 1/4 miles. In Reality finished last.
Understandably, In Reality wanted no part of the "Big Two" in the Brooklyn on July 20, and this time it was Damascus, in receipt of five pounds from Dr. Fager, who turned the tables on his speedy rival. Damascus's rabbit, Hedevar set the pace from a rank Dr. Fager through a first half-mile in a wicked 45 4/5. Hedevar soon backed up, and Dr. Fager, carrying 135 pounds, opened up a clear lead leaving the backstretch. The fractions took their toll, however, and Damascus came rolling on the outside to win by 2 1/2 lengths.

Here's what the legendary turf writer, Charles Hatton, had to write about Dr. Fager in his "Profiles of Best Horses" column in the 1969 American Racing Manual:

"Dr. Fager was a singular performer as a four-year-old in 1968. He was appropriately awarded Horse of the Year honors, which is the ultimate accolade, and excelled in more departments and divisional titles than any horse since the DAILY RACING FORM and The Morning Telegraph poll was instituted in 1936. William McKnight's Tartan Stable homebred also was proclaimed the handicap, turf course and sprint champion all rolled into one.
Dr. Fager set and tied records from seven furlongs to a mile and a quarter, slashing the world mile mark to 1:32 1/5 en route. He did everything with flair, though he was not tested at cup routes and his stamina was not incorruptible by the iconoclasts. His prodigal wire to wire speed, his impartiality concerning track conditions, his bravery under fire and his ability to make light of enervating weights, elicited widespread acclaim..."

"...Nevertheless, any statistical summary of Dr. Fager's record has a ring. At four, he won seven of eight races and earned $406,110, then retired to the breeding paddocks at Tartan Farm, Ocala, Fla., in sound condition.
In three seasons of his active career, he won 18 of 22 starts and placed ninth on the roster of all-time money leaders with $1,002,642.
Dr. Fager is partially syndicated for stud duty, with his breeder retaining 24 shares and his trainer and one-fourth owner, John Nerud, disposing of three of his eight shares at the heady rate of $100,000 each. The horse is insured for $3,500,000, and this seemingly hysterical evaluation places him in the front rank of first season sires. Two decades ago, one could scarcely give away a Florida-bred, and the fact Dr. Fager is out of a gift mare is more romantic than the gospel according to Vuilliers, Lowe, and other proponents of breeding theorem."

"...Dr. Fager's knees and ankles were mushy as a young horse and he was not nominated to the futurities. He was afforded time for the bones to develop, before the introduction of X-ray programs for yearlings' underpinning, which has made some significant differences to horses' conformation, concerning the soundness of the species.
In the course of the '68 season, Dr. Fager won the Roseben, Californian, Suburban, Whitney, Washington Park Handicap, United Nations and Vosburgh, and placed in the Brooklyn. He won from seven furlongs to a mile and a quarter, under weights ranging from 130 to 139, carried 134 pounds a mile in 1:32 1/5, winning the Washington Park 'Cap by 10 astonishing lengths, and gave Advocator 22 pounds and a beating in his only start on grass in the United Nations.
It required the combined efforts of Damascus and his surrogate, Hedevar, to negotiate his defeat in the Brooklyn, run in 1:59 1/5 for the 10 furlongs. At three, the Tartan flyer won seven of nine starts and $484,194, including the mile and a quarter New Hampshire Sweepstakes at Rockingham in track record time of 1:59 4/5.
Conceivably, Dr. Fager was his own formidable foe. Except for being at once arrogant, conceited, impetuous and ingenuous, he might never have known defeat. A rank, headstrong individual who was a hard puller with a hard mouth, he always led trumps. Little Willie Shoemaker, with his delicate hands, never really fit him. Braulio Baeza got on fairly well with him, through cajolery and exercising care not to antagonize him."

"Dr. Fager could never tolerate following a rival or stalking the pace once his blood was up, and his impatience had a low threshold. Rival riders knew this and in the Woodward, when he was three, they made a dead set at getting him on the muscle early in the race, yelling alongside him and slapping their whips to excite him into excessive use of his resources. Somewhat similarly, Hedevar had only to prompt him into the first turn to set him up for Damascus in the '68 Brooklyn.
Nerud was delighted, naturally, to find the colt had phenomenal speed at two - and he made the most of it. Could he have foreseen what manner of horse Dr. Fager would become, the trainer might have endeavored to teach him to wait, rating behind horses in his work. But then this tactic often has the effect of confusing and at length discouraging a horse so that he does nothing well. Considering Dr. Fager's mettlesome, volatile nature, it is quite possible he would have been utterly spoiled and too hostile for any use.
The NYRA's learned Dr. M. A. Gilman sized up Dr. Fager with standard and tape last September. The colt's vital statistics:

Height, 16 hands, 2 inches.
Point of shoulder to point of shoulder, 15 inches.
Girth, 73 1/4 inches.
Withers to point of shoulder, 29 inches.
Elbow to ground, 38 1/2 inches.
Point of shoulder to point of hip, 48 inches.
Point of hip to point of hip, 24 inches.
Point of hip to point of hock, 41 inches.
Point of hip to buttock, 24 inches.
Poll to withers, 43 inches.
Buttock to ground, 57 1/4 inches.
Point of shoulder to buttock, 69 1/2 inches.
Circumference of cannon under knee, 8 1/2 inches.

Dr. Fager's easy competency at eliminating time and space is explicable in his conformation, which implements his fluent action. For the sake of comparison, he girths a quarter-inch more than did Kelso, but the latter measured 43 inches from hip to hock.
Buckpasser girthed a substantial 75 1/2 inches and measured 43 inches from hip to hock. All have in common the fact they proved intuitively genuine race horses. The action, heart, nerves and combustion of oxygen into motivation power for the muscles are things one cannot see studying a horse in his box. They are the most crucial factors..."

"Dr. Fager is something of a sport, or freak, as old-time horsemen say..."

Sadly, the excitement generated by Dr. Fager, and other great Handicap Triple competitors like Buckpasser, Bald Eagle, Bold Ruler, Nashua, Busanda, Assault, Armed, Devil Diver, Eight Thirty, Equipoise, Grey Lag, and Forego has been transferred to breeding farms around the world. It is all about the money, after all.

While the Suburban has unfortunately lost its once-lofty stature in the racing world (heck, it's not even a Grade 1 race anymore despite its veritable who's who listing of winners), this year's running looks like a solid betting event full of capable Grade 2 and Grade 3 types.

IT'S A BIRD seems solid favorite as he's won three of his last four, and has become one of the top horses in a weak handicap division. His good inside post coupled with his tactical speed should put him in a cozy spot tracking the early speed of both FINALLYMADEIT and SAMHOON.
I'll take a shot with COOL COAL MAN, an inconsistent son of Mineshaft trained by Nick Zito. On his best day, Cool Coal Man is capable of winning races like the 2008 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. When he doesn't feel like running, he gets beat by runners like Giant Moon as he did in the Grade 3 Excelsior on April 4. Cool Coal Man's most recent race, a three-horse listed stakes event, was more like a paid public workout. He went right to the front, set solid fractions, and coasted home under an extremely-confident John Velazquez. Cool Coal Man doesn't need the lead to win, and may be sitting with It's a Bird with the hope of getting the jump on closers like ASIATIC BOY and READY'S ECHO.

I'm also guessing that WARRIOR'S REWARD won't disappoint in the Dwyer, and will look for the venerable 10-year-old battler, BETTER TALK NOW, to run down the game and genuine PRESIOUS PASSION in the United Nations.

More importantly, who do you fancy this weekend? I want to know.

***

Now as carrying weight goes, didn't Ouija Board carry considerably more weight, more often, than Zenyatta while racing in Europe? I'd like to see OB in her prime against Zenyatta on pro-ride AND turf. Unfortunately it'll never happen but those two against each other would make for a great Breeders cup Classic at Santa Anita!
hairy

Let's take a look at her past performances:

Download Ouija Board

***

congrats to jerrry for finishing first under the line in the HandiGambling 140 exercise. He gets to select next week's race.

***

Enjoy the holiday weekend.

Dan

Posted by dan_illman on July 3, 2009 | Permalink

Keywords:

Comments

Dan,

Thanks for the Dr. Fager recap, between that and the Steve Haskin memories, I have gone to You Tube to check out those races. He was something!

Mike,

OMG....very funny story about the Merry Go Round. That guy was truly a degenerate gambler! My brothers and I used to act like jockeys and "race" them when we were little.

Virgin Queen,

From last thread, I failed to give Jim Tully his due as the poster who said the Handigambling horses would end up on Japanese dinner plates. My paragraph break was not enough to keep it separate to my response to you. My first horse was a freebie off the track whose connections retired him before dropping him down the ladder....Special Attention was lucky, although he was a lousy racehorse, he was a superior three day eventer who ended up in Sydney for the 2000 Olympic Games. Unfortunately he bowed in the warmups before competing. He was a lovely gelding who ended up with a happy story and home.

Posted by: turnbackthealarm on July 03, 2009 at 12:37 PM

-->

Dan,
Speaking of Dr. Fager, look what I just found:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_JvRTwnHrj5E/SVU_mPRYc-I/AAAAAAAABBc/r6YAFNCLeFc/s1600-h/Nerud0001.JPG

You also forgot to handicap "The Derby" this weekend....
the ARAPAHOE CTBA DERBY!
Here are PPs (courtesy of Spendthrift Farm):
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/spendthrift_154437.pdf
Chalky and I like #7 Dance To The Star (ML:3/1), 2nd-off layoff, who won the CBTA Futurity here last July.

FWIW, I'm looking for an upset in the Dwyer tomorrow. I like #5 American Dance (ML:8/1), who is by A.P. Indy and is HB to Saint Liam. American Dance battled and easily shook off Unbridled's Heart last out in an 9f allowance BEL race in late May. I also like #3 Kensei (ML:6/1), who ran well in the Woody Stephens, to at least pick up a piece of the purse.

Posted by: Alan on July 03, 2009 at 12:51 PM

-->

Ha, I saw a one of the guys at my local deli working a Rubik's cube yesterday...

thanks for the great excerpts about the Doc, (clearly some legendary writing), never saw him myself, but it appears he was obviously either a "sport, or freak" or perhaps both.

appropos of little- regarding the recent redboarding kerfuffle: I for one, have little problem with someone coming on here and saying that they "got this" or "got that." I'm happy when my online friends are winning, and if someone has to lie about winning either for their ego's sake, or for some other perverse reason - go ahead, make your day.

personally, I'm not one to fall in love with horses, don't particularly leave home with a plan "bet a, b, and c - today because I think they're going to win," and try, very, very hard, not to look at morning lines and hope beyond all hope that a horse that looks like a solid contender will be going off anywhere near the assinine morning line of 8-1 or 10-1 or whatever...

what i'm learning a lot from these exercises, and the back and forth, and analysis and yes, "redboarding" (in the good, going over things after they're through, definition) is that my best skills as a horseplayer come from my improvisational skills -

by this I mean that my best scores, on a very consistent basis, come when i see value while at the track that I didn't otherwise see/expect when doing prep work.

for example: lately i've gotten a little rich when some races have been pulled from the turf, and there have been lone, and by lone I mean LONE speeds, that have simply romped.

key scratches, hot jockeys, (and less frequently hot trainers), completely unexpectedly enormous odds, (or even completely unexpectedly reasonable odds)... these are the things that make me money on a consistent basis.

I've always appreciated the difficulty of turf writers having to put out opinions on races 48 hours ahead of time - and likewise have appreciated that I don't have to send in my bets until the gates are locked up.

just some musings as a wonderful simulcasting palette of big and not so big holiday fields approaches, and by no means any kind of dissin' on those who do fall in love with horses or make their profits by picking the horses beforehand. Just saying, some of us can't or won't do it that way, without risking serious damage to the wallet...

good luck to all, and be safe out there. don't be letting all those fireworks and kegs of PBR distract you this weekend!

Posted by: p ensign on July 03, 2009 at 02:01 PM

-->

Dan or bloggers

does anyone know if there is a way/program/site to filter entries to find 2yo MSW races w/o going thru all the entries 1 by 1?

Thanks to anyone who can help

Posted by: CarsonCityFan on July 03, 2009 at 04:26 PM

-->

Double post alert: I inadvertantly posted on the prior blog. Sorry, Dan.

You And I Forever update.

For those of you who have followed along, I was quite unhappy by how this 4yo colt was handled last year, not making any judgements, as the conditioner in question is great, but sometimes a change is good. Jmo, of course.

On paper, You And I Forever outclassed his rivals today, and at an eventual 4/5, the expectation was clear. He was probably going to win.

Terrible race call, btw, but the question for me, considering he was beating nothing, was how did YAIF do it? One things for sure, he's going to need to move forward off this race, but once the 4yo colt overcame some intial trepidation when approaching the leaders (the confidence thing), he put his heart out there and didn't get it crushed. This was undoubtedly a good confidence builder, and this colt needed one, I promise you (he had his spirit broken against Mambo In Seattle), he had come off a succession of efforts that screamed of 'lost cojones', and so I'm sure a few of his backers were holding their breaths when he sort of hesitated at the quarter pole - smile - but he soon realized that these were pretenders and finished up with good energy after a right hand stick got his attention past the 1/8th poll. Not a bad effort, certainly. OIn fact, I'd say it was good effort - all things considered. Wolfson knows a heck of a lot more about this than I do, so I'll be curious to see what kind of jump in Class he authors for this colt next, I'm guessing he wants to follow a reasonable progression that doesn't ask too much too soon. Nevertheless, I'm optimistic, because he's in the right hands. Let's see another and against slightly better.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 03, 2009 at 04:46 PM

-->

TBTA or anyone else,

Are you going to be at Monmouth Park tomorrow (Saturday July 4th)? I think I'll probably be there and then maybe Belmont Park on Sunday...

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on July 03, 2009 at 04:57 PM

-->

Dan,
Great stuff about the DR. Even though my dad was going to be a jock before the war intervened....well my mom too, and my uncle Fred used to bring me to the backstretch from time to time to stay with Mr. Sherrill Ward while he ran to place a few bets, it was The DR. that hooked me to the horses. I was in awe of that horse. He would savage a horse that tried to pass him yet he was a gentleman in his stall. Not like Kelso who removed my baseball cap from my head when I was 10. I still say he was trying to bite my head off, even if Mr. Handford and my uncle assured me he was just playing, that was 1964. Of course I was a fan of Big Red and loved Seattle Slew, but there was just something about the DR. The weight he carried the speed, he laid it all on the line. For me the greatest race horse ever, though I know folks will argue the point.
As far as this years Suburban, I'm going to figure Asiatic Boy needed his last and is set for a big effort. I like It's in the Air, but he hasn't quite convinced me yet. Munnings running big his last out aside, I don't like Warriors Reward. I don't care how loose on the lead a horse gets, good horses overcome that and Successful Dan is no world beater. I believe Mr. McKlaughlin has Asiatic Boy set up for this race and if I get a price above 4-1 will be happy. As a final note to Virgin Queen, is the Derby merry go round still running at Rye Beach? Mike

Posted by: mike on July 03, 2009 at 05:39 PM

-->

Sorry about the Warriors Reward stuff, I was looking at the Dwyer, Hey I'm getting old. But I don't like him in the Dwyer either, LOL
I used to be much sharper, it's this Texas heat.

Posted by: mike on July 03, 2009 at 05:49 PM

-->

CarsonCityFan,

I don't know about a central location to find 2YO MSW races but you can get your stakes races from this site:

http://www.ntra.com/races_index.aspx?id=3

Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on July 03, 2009 at 05:56 PM

-->

Dan,

Thanks for the retrospective on Dr. Fager.

vicstu,

When it comes to following 2YO colts on the Triple Crown Trail it is always important to try and keep abreast of new emerging trends and sire lines. This year I am going to keep a watchful eye on the colts from the sire line of Cherokee Run and his sons Kafwain and Yonaguska.

All three were known primarily as sprinters but Cherokee Run finished 2nd in the G1 Preakness Stakes and Kafwain won the G2 Norfolk Stakes at (8.5 furlongs). Yonaguska’s best win in stakes competition was the 7 furlong G1 Hopeful Stakes at the age of two and the 7 furlong G2 Hutcheson Stakes at the age of three.

Most of their offspring have done well in sprint competition but in the past few of years, all three, especially Cherokee Run, have produced some very good middle-distance stakes winners.

I’m not saying that the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner will come from the sire line of Cherokee Run. But, when it comes to handicapping precocious colts descended from sires known as sprinters who on occasion also get good middle-distance runners – that is the kind of edge that I look for.

I think it is safe to say that Cherokee Run gets more than an occasional good middle distance runner. His first middle-distance stakes winner was Kafwain who won the 2002 Norfolk Stakes at (8.5 furlongs). Next was Sir Cherokee who won the 2003 Arkansas Derby at (9 furlongs). Later that year, During won the Swaps stakes at (9 furlongs) defeating Ten Most Wanted who a little over a month earlier was runner up to Empire Maker in the Belmont Stakes.

There’s a gap of a few years and then Cherokee Run really begins to blossom as a sire of good middle-distance stakes winners.

In 2007, Chelokee and Zanjero continue to add stakes wins to the resume of Cherokee Run. Chelokee won the Northern Dancer Breeders’ Cup Stakes and the Barbaro Stakes – both at 8.5 furlong. Zanjero won the Indiana Derby (8.5 furlongs) and the West Virginia Derby (9 furlongs) at the age of three. At the age of four, Zanjero won the Kentucky Cup Classic (9 furlongs) and the West Virginia Governor’s Stakes (8.5 furlongs) and would go on to be Cherokee Run’s all-time leading money earner with $1,620,786.

In 2008, the brilliant War Pass came on the scene but he failed to live up to his previous 2YO form he demonstrated in winning the Champagne Stakes (8 furlongs) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (8.5 furlongs). War Pass did not run in the Kentucky Derby but he did end up as Cherokee Run’s 2nd highest money earner with $1,583.400 in earnings.

However, Illinois Derby winner Recapturetheglory did run in the Kentucky Derby and he finished a respectable 5th. I can not help but think that if War Pass had ran in the Derby, Cherokee Run would have two sons to finish in the top five finishers which would have been very impressive for a sire known mostly as a sire of sprinters.

All in all, in the span of six years, Cherokee Run has had a total of seven colts that proved themselves as good middle-distance stakes winners.

In 2009, Cherokee Run did not have any runners of note on the Triple Crown Trail but his sons Yonaguska and Kafwain produced from their second crop of foals some very good stakes winning thoroughbreds.

Yonaguska produced the outstanding Musket Man who won the Illinois Derby (9 furlongs) and Tampa Bay Derby (8.5 furlongs). He also finished 3rd in Sam F. Davis Stakes (8.5 furlongs), Kentucky Derby (10 furlongs) and Preakness Stakes (9.5 furlongs). Musket Man currently has a 5-0-3 record in 8 starts and is Yonaguska’s top money earner with $893,600 in earnings.

Kafwain produced The Pamplemousse who showed brilliance in winning the San Rafael Stakes (8 furlongs) and Sham Stakes (9 furlongs). The Pamplemousse was one of the favorites leading up to the Santa Anita Derby but he did not run because he was sidelined with an injury.

So, in the span of seven years, there have been a total of nine thoroughbreds descended from the Cherokee Run sire line that have proved themselves to be good middle-distance stakes winners.

Will the sire line of Cherokee Run produce any good middle-distance stakes winners on the 2010 Triple Crown Trail?

Only time will tell.

This Sunday, Kelly Breen sends out the 2YO Yonaguska colt Goombada Guska in a 5 furlong $47K Maiden Special Weight in the 4th race at Monmouth Park. If he shows any brilliance in his debut, you can bet that I will be watching him when he stretches out to a route race.

Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on July 03, 2009 at 06:28 PM

-->

OK the marathon handicapping session is over, I'm going to enjoy a nice holiday weekend as much as a NY'er can in Texas 100+ heat. Dan and everyone enjoy your holiday.

Suburban
Asiatic Boy
It's in The Air
Dry Martini

Dwyer
American Dance
Warrior's Reward
Convocation

United Nations
Banrock
Precious Passion
Brass Hat

Salvator Mile
Solar Flare
Runforthedoe( crazy ain't it)
Smooth Air

Firecracker
Seaspeak
Mr. Sidney
Thorn Song
I need a break, be careful all, this holiday weekend.

Posted by: mike on July 03, 2009 at 06:40 PM

-->

Haven't been able to post, or pay much attention to anything other than work for awhile, but I'm diving back in this weekend.

In the Salvator, it appears that Smooth Air will go favored, but I'll go with SOLAR FLARE. He's super cranked right now, his Frisk Me Now was brilliant, and he should be sitting in the garden spot from just off the pace. I'll use him with longshots RUNFORTHEDOE and KISS THE KID. Both should close into a blistering pace.

It seems they are dissing the gamest horse in the universe, PRESIOUS PASSION, again (gee, what a surprise), in the UN, with the massively overrated Court Vision and Spice Route favored over him on the ML.

This looks like an easy romp, PP is the controlling speed, he won't even have to set a suicidal, contested pace and then inexorably, impossibly come back on again and refuse to lose like he did last time (and plenty of other times). Imagine if Unbridled's Song had the heart of Presious Passion. It makes your head spin to think what he could've achieved. If you can get the 9/2 ML, it would be a gift. Dan, please do yourself a favor and use BTN underneath PP as a saver.

In the Dwyer, I like an all Jerkens box of CONVOCATION and MASALA, predicting a pace meltdown.

In the Prioress, BE FAIR and ON THE MENU figure to benefit from another meltdown.

I'll wait for any scratches before predicting the Suburban.

Posted by: James Mc. on July 03, 2009 at 06:49 PM

-->

Wow! The "fireworks" started early at Monmouth today, with Luis Rivera booting home a $94.60 winner in the 10th to key a $40,000plus late Pick 4.

I didn't have it, but with the low 15% takeout on Pick 4s at Monmouth, somebody(s) did right well today!

Posted by: Keith L. on July 03, 2009 at 06:56 PM

-->

Blue,

Gosh darn it! I am in Chicago and not at Monmouth! I'll be back Monday to NJ. If you are down again, post it on the blog and/or call my cell at 732-673-0412.

Please no heavy breathers....hahahaha

Posted by: turnbackthealarm on July 03, 2009 at 07:16 PM

-->

Will he risk it or won't he?

Craig Dollase says he is leaning toward running Monterey Jazz in the Triple Bend rather than the American. You see, he is interested in adding a GR1 to MJ's blacktype and the American is only a GR2. It doesn't matter that the turf race fits MJ's unique talent of quickly establishing a lead, cruising through the first turn, and then applying the screws for the next half mile, effectively running the field off it's feet. He is considering going with a speed laden sprint which had frontrunners draw the inside two posts that nearly ensures a very rapid pace, thereby exerting a high degree of difficulty on his horse's chances.

There is no real dilemma where to run. That is, outside Dollase's mind.

Posted by: Mathieu on July 03, 2009 at 07:30 PM

-->

Everyone,
Come join the Stakes Handicapping Chat at http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com

PP's for the races at Belmont, Monmouth, Arlington and Churchill are available.

Posted by: Laura on July 03, 2009 at 09:01 PM

-->

Comments and HG 140 Redux

I am just sitting here in Las Vegas unwinding after an eventful travel day. Left Northern California yesterday at 5:06 a.m. – got a ticket at 5:10 a.m. (just bought a new Honda Odyssey and am still getting used to it – it’s a minivan, so how can it go that fast without me feeling it?). I guess since it was a new vehicle it took a while to get the registration sorted out, so we sat on the freeway for nearly 30 minutes. Then we ran into one of those famous desert squalls just before we hit the Nevada border. In ten minutes the temperature dropped from 104 to 58. Rain, hail, thunder lightening - it was wild. Traffic slowed to a crawl. Finally pulled into Las Vegas after almost 10 hours on the road.

Slew,
Good luck if you decide to go the poker route. I love playing poker, but never play tournaments or high limits. I know a few people who claim to make a living playing on the Internet, but I’m not sure how much they really make. I’ve always respected your handicapping and comments, so hopefully it will be a second career without taking too much time away from the blog. And I also have a feeling that we have been in the same place at the same time – likely without knowing it or each other. Just call it a gut feeling.

Cayman01,
Looked at the spreadsheet for the first time in a while for HG and all I can say is “WOW!” That’s a lot of compiling – thanks for taking on that monumental task each and every week.

Van Savant,
Thanks for props – I must say that I admire your consistency. I also think you were spot on regarding Alan and his ability. Your list of handicappers that I learn from is excellent - the only problem is that it is far too short.

Dan,
You’re still the man (although I still liked your older picture better). I must admit that I sometimes peruse the “red box” page, but I try not to miss any posts here. Thanks for setting an atmosphere where we can discuss relevant topics, have fun and learn some things. I echo the comments from Van Savant – “what a cool place!”

Posted by: Molesap on July 04, 2009 at 02:27 AM

-->

Calvin,

Interesting post about CR and Yonaguska. I realize your post was about males, but Earth Living is a nice Yonaguska filly (out of a Tobasco Cat mare) that finished 2nd in the UAE 2000 Guineas (8.5 furlongs or so). I do not think she has run since (injury) but if she returns it will be interesting. And of course Donaguska has a nice late kick...

But I realize your point about potential Derby candidates and both Y and K are younger sires with just a few years worth of runners--so no one can say definitively that either is simply a sire of sprinters. As for CR, his sire Runaway Groom won the Travers (10f) and other classic distance races (including 12f). His son Runaway Dancer was a turf stayer that won at 12f as an 8 year old. CR, as you know, was out of Blushing Groom, a miler as a runner but as a sire an excellent source of stamina.

I was reading a publication online from Europe that explained Cherokee Run and Yonaguska as simply being two sires from the Blushing Groom-Runaway Groom sireline that simply could not relax and thus were better at shorter distances. If temperment can be passed on genetically, than what happened to Musket Man? The horse is the ultimate in relaxing off of the pace. The truth is, no one would be raising an eyebrow if Cherokee Run had won the Preakness instead of running 2nd. He was considered a abnormality when he raced as Blushing Groom's were known to run all day like Runaway Groom.

RG was bred to some stamina challenged mares, to be sure, but he still threw many runners who could get the Derby distance. Case and point is Rising Moon who runs in the Suburban today. The horse is a Runaway Groom just like Cherokee Run. He has won at 10 and 12 furlongs, and does his best running late. True, he has Nijinsky as a damsire (which enforces any stamina influence), but Nijinsky was bred to some very superior stock and is seen as a better stamina enfluence than RG.

Regardless, I believe there is stamina as well as brilliance in that bloodline (Blushing Groom-RG-CR etc.) If a horse has the temperment to relax off the lead (MM) or even on the lead (The Pamplemousse-Kuf.)I think there may indeed be more of that coming from these young sires, and you could be on to something.

I understand that, for the most part, Yonaguska and Kuf. will mostly throw sprinter or miler types. But I would think when the match is right and the talent is there, we could well see either horse throw us another Derby contender or two. History has given us stranger patterns.

Or, worse case scenario, The Pamplemousse and Musket Man are just that good and simply outran their pedigrees. Time will tell. In the meantime, let's keep watching those 2 year olds and be sure...

Posted by: vicstu on July 04, 2009 at 08:12 AM

-->

James Mc,

I am with you on Precious Passion--that is one game horse. I am sure he will be in the hunt. And Solar Flare's last out was a sight to behold.

I am still handicapping the races, but I cannot argue with your selections. Alan's choice of American Dance in the Dwyer is an interesting angle as well. I am not sure Two Step Salsa and Coal Play (the speed in the Salv. Mile) will ensure a rapid pace, but things should be interesting up front of that race.

Mathieu,

That grade 1 win clouds the minds of many trainers, but Dollase can be an enigma regardless. I still sit and wonder what might have been if El Gato Malo had been handled like a late running miler who could stretch to 9 or 10 panels (rather than the late runner who was supposed to run down horses like CJ at any route distance).

Because EGM was that (of course). A late running miler that should have been given a slightly different racing strategy. But, as C says, maybe he was never really THAT good. In any event, a stand behind my Dollase comment, and expect the unexpected on MJ.

Posted by: vicstu on July 04, 2009 at 08:33 AM

-->

Salvatore Mile.....SOLAR FLARE.

U.N.....SPICE ROUTE.

Dwyer...WARRIORS REWARD.

Prioress...ON THE MENU.

Firecracker....THORN SONG.

Chicago Hcp......CHORAGUS..

Posted by: monmouthisajoke on July 04, 2009 at 10:39 AM

-->

Had a little fun with HOL last night. Most of you know Steve T.'s passion for workouts. Last night it paid off with a 60-1 shot who finished second.

It was the sixth race, a maiden claimer (ugh) with a full field (!), and they all looked pretty bad. Looking thru the works of the horses the 11,Bonita Berdie, had fired off a pretty good work a week ago. What made it stick out was that everybody else in the race had very poor works except the 8. So I played the 11 across the board and watched his odds drift up, up , up, and thought I just threw away some money. I also played an exacta box with the 8. BB ran a good race , caught a break when the frontrunner spooked and tried to jump the rail in the stretch, and finished second paying 47.40 and 23.60.
the 8 clunked up for third so i just missed a $1700 EX, but still made a nice return on the race.

The point is that at the SoCal tracks works are a strong indication of how a horse is going to run. I know a lot of people poo-poo the idea and discount it, but in SoCal it's a golden angle.

Steve's works sheet can be found here:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rSPpSk6X1TSKH_DZ6QyqK2A&hl=en

Look at the "statistics" page. It's very telling. Horses that work at HOL and race at HOL are MUCH more profitable than horses that come in off works from SA and elsewhere.

Hope this helps a few out there. I'll try to post some thoughts on some of today's raaces later.

Posted by: cayman01 on July 04, 2009 at 11:16 AM

-->

Horses to watch today at HOL:

Action In May race 9
Concerning Sutton race 6
Laddies Poker race 4
Madame Kiawah race 2
No Caps No Floors race 6
Whatsthescript race 8

Posted by: cayman01 on July 04, 2009 at 11:20 AM

-->

Masala, Gabby and Asiatic Boy at BEL and Banrock at Mth.

Posted by: Wayne80 on July 04, 2009 at 11:43 AM

-->

passion can't last, banrock 1st on the wire in the united nations

Posted by: sunsilience on July 04, 2009 at 12:19 PM

-->

The United Nations:

PRESSIOUS PASSION is a horse you have to love. He's the Rodney Dangerfield of the equine industry who always gets the last laugh on all the doubters. He'll be the controlling speed here. The key to the race to me is Richard Migliore and the firmness of the turf. If the turf is hard and the Mig gets WESLEY involved early he can win it at box cars.He does his
best running under those circumstances. Only wish that castellano was up as he has been aboard for three of Wesley's four wins. Look for Spice Route and Banrock to fill the super.

Firecracker (CD):

What a race! Too bad it looks like rain will dampen things considerably. Thorn Song won this last year on a yielding course, but his subsequent tries on the soft stuff have not turned out so well. At 9/5 i have to take a stand against him. There's plenty of other runners who like to be forwardly placed early here so i will take a shot with the late runners PASSAGER and MR SIDNEY.The race sets up well for them and they both are fine with a bit of give in the turf.

PRIORESS:

Gabby's Golden Gal lit 'em up in the Acorn, but she cuts back to a sprint here and will have plenty who are just as quick up front as she is.Makes her very vulnerable IMHO. Also, Baffert's record going route-sprint is not very good.Heart Ashley is another very good horse (slew's Fav) but the switch to Prado leaves me wanting. I'll take a shot in here with BE FAIR who should drop back and make one run here and there will be all kinds of BBQ-type pace to close into. Strictly a WAS bet here.

SUBURBAN:

I will throw away a couple bucks on FINALLYMADEIT to start off with. He'll probably be a bout 40-1 at post time and i can't pass a shot at that, just in case. I think ASIATIC BOY stretches his wings here. He'll stalk the quick early pace and pounce when they all get tired. I can't do ITS A BIRD who was dq'd from his Oaklawn win for (surprise !) a positive drug test. I think it was a painkiller but not sure. Add in the laterunning Dry Martini, Stud Muffin and Rising Moon to your supers.

DWYER:

Stretchout sprinter JUST BEN should control the pace here and i don't see anybody giving him enough preasure that he'll be caught. Warrior's Reward and Masala will be running late but it should all be over by then.

Posted by: cayman01 on July 04, 2009 at 12:25 PM

-->

Some picks for today.

PRIORESS: SELVA,GABBY'S GOLDEN GAL,ON THE MENU

DWYER: WARRIORS REWARD, KENSEI, MASALA

SUBURBAN: RISING MOON, ASIATIC BOY, DRY MARTINI

SALVATOR: SMOOTH AIR, TWO STEP SALSA, SOLAR FLARE

UNITED NATIONS: PRESIOUS PASSION, BANROCK, BRASS HAT

FIRECRACKER; SEASPEAK, WISE RIVER, PASSAGER

Good luck

Posted by: BillG on July 04, 2009 at 12:50 PM

-->

My picks for stakes today:

Dwyer-$100 wp #3 Kensei $10ex Warriors Reward,Convocation,Just Ben/Kensei $5tri WR,Conv,JB/WR,Conv,JB/Kensei

Prioress-$100 win Heart Ashley $50exbox Heart Ashley/Light Green

Suburban-$15 tri It's a Bird/Asiatic Boy/ all $8tri flip the first two. $20ex It's a Bird/Dry Martini,Stud Muffin,Rising Moon, Real Merchant,Samhoon

Salvator-$250 win Smooth Air $20exbox Smooth Air/Runforthedoe $10 tri Smooth Air/Solar Flare/all $10 tri Smooth Air/All/Solar Flare $5 tri Solar Flare/Smooth Air/All. $5 tri Solar Flare/All/Smooth Air

United Nations- $50ex box Banrock/Presious Passion $10 ex Banrock/Strike a Deal, Brass Hat,Lauro, Wesley $5ex flip Banrock w/4 listed above. $3tri Spice Route,Court Vision/all/Banrock

Firecracker $200 win Tizdejavu

American $20 tri Whatsthescript/All/Buenos Dias,Storm Military,Giant Gem.

I have the week off and am looking to play the ponies all week. Here are a few of my plays.

Posted by: Fred on July 04, 2009 at 01:40 PM

-->

Molesap
uggg, sounds like the ride from *ell..Hope you enjoy your time here in LV.
Happy 4th of July!

Alan...Loved the Picture of Dr. Fager. hmmm, Jockey Oats?

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on July 04, 2009 at 02:15 PM

-->

Everyone,

There are some good two year old maiden races at Churchill today - check them out on the front page of http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com

The Bashford Manor was an exciting race yesterday. I got home too late to bet the trifecta, which paid $78. Don't you hate it when you pick them but don't play?

Posted by: Laura on July 04, 2009 at 02:17 PM

-->

PS - Happy July 4th Holiday to everyone. I hope all of your fireworks are the good kind!

Posted by: Laura on July 04, 2009 at 02:17 PM

-->

Looks like Monterey Jazz will go today. I see him establishing a quick easy lead as Blanc sits an clear second through a 47 half and then they ratchet up the pressure on the field and finish as they started. I'm going with 'Script and Artiste for third in my tri's.

The plays:

$50 Tri MJ/Storm/'Script and Artiste

$50 DD Public Image & ST Diplomat/ MJ

$200 total

Posted by: Mathieu on July 04, 2009 at 02:43 PM

-->

Help please! I can't figure it out for myself.

Why did the Friday P4 & P6 at Belmont pay to ALL in the final leg. I'm sure that it's something simple but it's beyond my limited logic capabilities.

Thanks,
Caseyjeaux

Posted by: Caseyjeaux on July 04, 2009 at 04:29 PM

-->

Vicstu,

Say it ain't so, Musket Man is out for the year.....bone bruise. I am sooooo bummed. Like Alan's Alaazo, he was my crush horse. At least he didn't break down at the Haskell.

Posted by: turnbackthealarm on July 04, 2009 at 05:40 PM

-->

TBTA:
But with Musket Man out, you'll be able to back the filly with all your power!
If she runs!
Keith

Posted by: Keith L. on July 04, 2009 at 06:31 PM

-->

Does anyone know why the United Nations Stakes results are not being reported on DRF and Equibase?

Posted by: Keith L. on July 04, 2009 at 06:32 PM

-->

Caseyjeaux,

The reason for the pay to all for the P4 & P6 at Belmont was due to a late change in surface from turf to dirt.

Posted by: Mike Romeo on July 04, 2009 at 08:54 PM

-->

Hello All

Family Day for me..

Just turned on the computer. Saw the 4th from EvD. The 2 horse had the following in the WPS Pools.

$15,688 Win
$17,958 Place
$169,572 Show

He won and paid $2.40 / $2.10 / $2.10 HELLO.

Hope everyone is having a safe Holiday weekend. Went to a block party that is still going strong. My 5 year old daughter came in 2nd in the blueberry pie eating contest. Great fun!!!

I did see some upsets today.
Keith L... United Nations Result...
7. Presious Passion $7.40Win
6. Lauro (GER)
3. Brass Hatt
$1 Ex $44.90
$1 Tri $372.10
$1 Super $1248.90

Horse pulled a Rachel on the replay and led by 20 lengths and held on and almost set a world record!!!! Was really cranked up for that one.OUT

Posted by: Whackymacky on July 04, 2009 at 09:10 PM

-->

Stephen Taylor
Congratulations on your win with Winchester Bay...25.80 to win ! Wahooo!

http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseDisplay.do?track=LS&country=USA&raceDate=20090704&raceNo=9

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on July 04, 2009 at 11:32 PM

-->

RE: Garrett Gomez at Monmouth Park on 7/4

Garrett Gomez is a great jockey, right???

Take a look at his mounts, their relative odds and their final placings at Monmouth Park on Saturday July 4th... This is exhibit A from a handicapping standpoint of assessing a jockey's desire to be racing at a different track (than their home track)... I'm sure a lot of those horses were used for win wagers, exotic wagers and multi-race wagers... It's unfortunate, right??

I do think that Garrett is a great jockey, but clearly, on this day, he just wasn't into it... Obviously it's critical from a horseplaying standpoint to figure this out early on...

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on July 05, 2009 at 12:12 AM

-->

Time for me to give up?

I have been going to the races for 30 years, have had some good days and bad days like everyone, but the past year or so I simply can NOT cash a wager. Now, I only go maybe 5-6 times a year, but it gets really frustrating when any attempt to handicap a race fails to show a positive result. I can honestly say I would do better just betting hunches like names of ex-gf's or pets.

The worst part is, I tell myself "Ok, next time I go, I am NOT buying the form and am just gonna bet the hunches", but then I tell myself there is no satisfaction in picking horses that way, so I buy the form the night before, handicap, and then watch the horse with my old dog's name win at 18-1. ARGHHHHH!

Posted by: johnzimbo on July 05, 2009 at 12:29 AM

-->

Fred;

My man...well done on the wagering today. Goodness, I do hope that you actually bet those. That was some fine handicapping and wager structuring. $100 W/P on Kensei? That is genius. Don't get me wrong...I get it, but I would never have had the stones to do that! Great job!

Enjoy your vacation, as you obviously have earned it. And while you are at it, and if it wouldn't be too much trouble, take a look at Wednesday night's Evangeline Downs card...I could use some advice.

Wow!

Posted by: Van Savant on July 05, 2009 at 12:49 AM

-->

TBTA,

Yes, it's so. Bone bruise. Off until the winter meet at Tampa Bay Downs. They allegedly are going to run MM at 4. If so, he and MTB should have quite a rivalry going IF both stay healthy at 4 years old.

Saturday stakes races: Man! This should go down as "Let the damn horse run, fool" Fourth of July...

We had Prescious Passion, Coal Play, Monterry Jazz and Informed Decision all winning their stakes races on the front end. Actually, MJ rated until the first turn then pulled the jockey to the lead.

Obviously, Precious Passion's win was not only the most impressive of the day; in my mind it was even more impressive than Rachel's romp in the Oaks and I never thought in this day and age of "racing not to lose" riders that I would see a horse bust a bullet-move like that in the opening quarter (19 and change), open up over 20 in the backstretch, hit 6 panels in 1:09 and change, a mile in 1:34 and change (on turf!) and then utterly destroy English Channel's 11 panel track record by almost 2 full seconds and come 2/3 of a second off the world record while winning by open lengths!

Here is a video replay on Youtube for those who did not see this amazing feat. Watch the fractions:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kvq-_0rHps

That, ladies and gentlemen, is playing come and catch me if you can to a science. We don't need no stinking speed duels when the opening quarter is 19 and change! PP was 20 lengths ahead by the time they hit the first call.

They will respect the horse now, James Mc. That is what happens when a fit horse is allowed to combine his tremendous speed with his enormous heart. They tried to come at him in the stretch but PP dug in a repelled them with authority. And you can afford to shorten the strides a little bit when you are 10 lengths ahead with 2.5 furlongs to go.

To me, to run those fractions and to shatter the course record by that amount against that caliber of a field puts PP's effort well above that of RA in scale of difficulty. After all, she is arguably the best 3 year old in the country (not filly- horse) against an inferior field in the Oaks. Visually impressive, yes! But to do what PP did today was stunning and it takes one heck of a racehorse to run 1:09-4/5 (Secretariat ran a similar fractional time in the Belmont Stakes) and to keep on going well in front of the field for 5 more furlongs! Unbelievable!

Secretariat's Belmont has always been the benchmark for greatness. We have always been told that only a freak could run Red's fractions at a classic distance and keep on going. Well, PP did just that today...

In fact, while running 1 furlong less than the 12 furlong Belmont Stakes, PP's fractional times shows he beat Secretariat to EVERY call AND beat Secretariat to 11 furlongs! Assuming Secretariat ran the final quarter at about the same pace (25 flat), that would put Big Red at 11 furlongs at approx. 2:11 seconds, or .3 seconds slower than Precious Passion. Not only that, after setting those torrid fractions, PP ran the final furlong in UNDER 12 seconds (11.97). That is stunning.

That alone BLOWS AWAY anything RA has done this year. Not even in the same universe. RA ran the final furlong in the Preakness in over 13 seconds and did not come close to PP's fractions.

I know it's apples to oranges, dirt to turf, but what PP did Sat. needs some context. Besides, even if the M turf was playing fast everyone and his grandmother knows Big Red set that world record for 12 panels on a concrete hard Big Sandy (called a parking lot by several who were there).

2:10.97! PP hit the 10 furlong pole at 1:59 flat, the same as Secretariat at Belmont. Sure the turf was fast, but that was absolutely stunning...unbelievable! Believe it or not, we just witnessed something close in freak value to Secretariat's Belmont. In fact, that 2:10.97 beats that approximation of 2:11 flat to 11 furlongs by Big Red on his way to 2:24 at 12f, given at the Secretariat.com site.

Of course, Secretariat's Belmont is still the single most visually impressive race I have seen. But remember, PP beat a stouter field.

The naysayers can spin it anyway they like. I know I watched history. One of the most impressive races I have ever seen a horse run. What looked insane to any normal horse early on fit PP like a glove. Freakish.

And hats off to Coal Man on his frontrunning win in the Salvatore Mile. He is dangerous alone on the lead (remember last year's Haskell?). Mont. Jazz smoked his field at Hollywood while forwardly placed (expect the unexpected with MJ)...it makes Dollase look crazy like a fox.

And Informed Decision looked good wiring her competition in the Chicago Handicap.

But clearly, what a stunning wire to wire run by PP, breaking the course record by almost 2 seconds and just missing the world record! The performance of the year...the heart and talent to finish like that off of those fractions is off the charts

Posted by: vicstu on July 05, 2009 at 05:28 AM

-->

When I see what happened to Warrior's Reward today I wonder if the race against Successful Dan, where he was repelled, even in the gallop out, should have given bettors pause before making him odds-on? It's the confidence thing, much like what occurred to You And I Forever after his race against Mambo In Seattle. Of course, it's difficult to know which horses will react negatively to such a beating, and it is a particular type of beating where they put their hearts on the line, perhaps for the first time in their racing careers, and they get it stepped on.

An older horse, even a less sensitive young horse might be more likely to take it in stride - I haven't done a study on this, but I would pay particular attention to the young horse when trying to evaluate the potential for this sort of emotional fall-out, the young (allowance or better) horse who is beaten in the manner that a top-form Warrior's Reward was beaten in his prior race.

The race today clearly shows how strongly bettors will favor a young horse who has topped the 110 speed plateau, regardless of other factors that may be pointing downward. Ian Wilkes is a fine trainer, no doubt, but he doesn't win at a ridiculous rate, his horses don't typically defy the ordinary laws of handicapping, unlike some of his peers whose horses regularly do. I think one has to be precise when backing horses from a trainer like Wilkes, very precise, because he doesn't have a training history of stringing together high performances, one right after the other.

I'm not sure what can be drawn from Warrior's Reward's effort that can be applied to Successful Dan. Both were trying 2 turns for the first time in that race, which is why I was cautious about getting too high on SD (although the manner of victory was sweet). The fact Wilkes was in such a hurry to get WR back to one-turning heightened my sense of caution.

Much will be learned in SD's 2nd two-turn race, because it will undoubtedly come against graded type company. I would want some kind of fair price before wading into the deep end, a hedge to offset the possibility that his hard fought victory against WR was not indicative of a unique talent (as it appeared it might be to me, originally).

***

Molesap, that's a kind thing to say, thanks. I've always enjoyed and respected your handicapping points of view, also.

***

Maybe my slump will end tomorrow and I will get a signer? I'm going to try Victory Kid (8-1) at PLN in race 3 as a single in the early [competitive] P4, coming off a lengthy layoff, but he faced better last summer (running 3rd) in a 75k stake after breaking his maiden. The winner (by 4 lengths) of that stake came back to win a 150k stake at SA, and the 2nd place finisher, who was only a nose better, had him on conditions and experience. It was a very good effort. Victory Kid also has a 2nd over the PLN surface in his 1st start. I'm drawing a line through his last since it was his only race on synthetic. He's working well at PLN for this, and he's one of only 2 in here who has a win on regular dirt. That one deserves a little bit of a look, also.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 05, 2009 at 09:04 AM

-->

Dear Bloggers:

I had the pleasure of partaking in the "Jersey Shore Exacta" on July 4- morning at the beach, afternoon at Monmouth Park. Couldn't possibly think of a better way to spend the 4th. On a day like yesterday, Monmouth is one of the best venues in racing. And Presious Passion- what a neat horse!

Posted by: alhattab on July 05, 2009 at 10:09 AM

-->

vicstu –

Here's why your reaction to the race is way over-the-top: PP beat Lauro by TWO lengths.

Lauro. LAURO. A horse which has one a grand total of ONE group/graded race in his career, and has never previously placed in a group/grade I.

To compare PP's performance with any of the greats of all-time is a joke. And given that the posted first quarter fraction was obviously grossly inaccurate, why are you so confident that the rest of the fractions were? I haven't bothered to hand-time a replay, but I didn't need a watch to know that the first fraction was absurdly wrong.

No spin, just facts.

Posted by: tinky on July 05, 2009 at 12:37 PM

-->

vicstu:

I agree, PP's win yesterday was epic, an indelible exposition of blazing speed.

You have to give Elvis tremendous credit for having the courage to just let him roll, opening up by 20. 20! He allowed the horse to show how great he really is.

The guys at the OTB where I watched it yesterday were stunned, almost horrified and guaranteed he would stop, but I knew it was over after 3/8 of a mile.

When you can basically let the horse sprint for a mile, build up an enormous lead, and you know that he will still fight back gamely in the stretch if they come to him, no matter how fast he's run, that's a great racehorse.

And maybe finally people are beginning to realize it, though yesterday Court Vision (btw, now 0-5 as a 4yo, classic example of the 'celebrity' 3yo finding it much tougher against older horses) was favored.

I have always felt that PP got dissed a bit because of where he's based and his relatively unknown trainer, and there were his two losses to Grand Couturier last year in NY, but both times the course was the type of soggy bog that GC loves and PP hates. But people took it as some sort of verdict of the relative class of the two. Nothing could be further from the truth.

There is no doubt in my mind that PP can win the BC Turf, a nice hard SA course should suit him well, but for now I am just pleased to see him peaking in such spectacular fashion as a 6 year old.

Posted by: James Mc. on July 05, 2009 at 12:59 PM

-->

ROTD at Hollywood

8th, 1&1/4 on the lawn for 3 yo fillies, filled entry box.

I like #2 Magical Affair. I didn't like the ride Laparoux gave her in the Sands Point, holding her in the 5 or 6 path at the back of the 7 horse pack, while Gozzip Girl set all the slow fractions unpressed. So, redemption time!
I'll also put some action on #4 GB invader Apple Charlotte, Mike Smith up and #7 Acting Lady with Bejarano up. #3 Third Dawn has Gomez on the Sadler filly, but Garrett has convienced me he often just does not ride for 2nd or 3rd purse money, so I won't be putting him in my quinella or tris.

Wager:
$25 Win/Place on #2 (Magical Affair)
$10 Quinella Box #2/#4/#7
$ 5 Tri: 2,4/2,4/7
$ 2 Tri: 2,7/2,7/4
$ 2 Tri: 4,7/4,7/2
$ 2 Win #3
$50/30/10/4/4/2=$100

In real life I will be playing a #7 with #9 O'Neil/Bejarano DD for the 8th and 9th races too.

Posted by: Keith L. on July 05, 2009 at 01:26 PM

-->

Thanks Wackymacky for the UN results. DRF and Equibase finally got around to posting them after 6:15 PM...they actually had the 11th race resulets up for twenty minutes before they got around to posting the 10th race results at Monmouth...don't know what the hold up was. First time I ever saw this happen, for sure.

Posted by: Keith L. on July 05, 2009 at 01:29 PM

-->

In light of Todd Beattie scratching Fabulous Strike after proclaiming he was doing too good to wait for Saratoga, I'd like to introduce the mindset of John Nerud and the historical risks of shipping East to West for Dr. Fager.

A CLOSER LOOK--THE 1968 CALIFORNIAN

John Nerud's decision to go west was a controversial one. Dr. Fager would go off at 6-to-5 in the $100,000-added Californian Stakes at Hollywood Park, the only time that year that he was not odds-on. There was good reason.

While shipping back and forth between coasts is much more commonplace today, such was not the case in the 1970s and earlier. Shipping to the West Coast -- especially Hollywood Park -- was frequently a disaster for trainers of eastern stars. The number of eastern stakes horses who simply could not handle the hard, pasteboard surface of Hollywood Park in the 40s, 50s, 60s and 70s would fill a small volume.

Until 1981, Hollywood Park would only race in late spring and summer, a time of little rainfall in Southern California. In one period in the 50s and 60s, Hollywood Park would go *eight years* without an off track. Because of regular rainfall, eastern tracks had to be more sandy and deeper. Hollywood Park did not need to worry about a surface that drained well. By the early 1980s, Hollywood Park adopted a more sandy loam composition for its dirt track, thus making it more like eastern tracks.

Just four years before Dr. Fager ventured to Hollywood Park, five-time Horse of the Year Kelso made his only two starts on the West Coast in Hollywood Park's Los Angeles Handicap and Californian Stakes in 1964. The great one finished up the track in both these starts. In the Californian he was soundly defeated by a fugitive from the Pacific Northwest named Mustard Plaster -- a horse who couldn't have warmed up Kelso's stable pony on eastern tracks.

Four years after Dr. Fager's trip, Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Riva Ridge ventured to Hollywood Park for the 1 1/4 mile Hollywood Derby on July 1, 1972. The Meadow Stable ace won, but Penny Tweedy said it was the biggest mistake of her life. "They just keep running at you the entire distance," she said. The race took so much out of Riva Ridge that it was a year before he fully recovered. He lost the three-year-old championship, despite his Triple Crown achievements.

Undefeated Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew had natural speed that everyone thought might be beneficial in the Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park on June 18, 1977. In his only trip to the West Coast, the undefeated champion -- going off at odds of 1-to 5 -- struggled home 16 lengths behind J. O. Tobin, suffering his first career loss.

So for Dr. Fager to come west was no easy decision. To make matters worse, he drew post position 11 in the 14-horse field. With a short run to the clubhouse turn, Dr. Fager needed a lot of luck in a field that included several horses with 1:08-plus six-furlong races to their credit (Kissin' George, Dr. Roy E and Rising Market). In addition, the field included Gamely, William Haggin Perry's national champion older mare -- who loved Hollywood Park's glib surface.

The Californian was run under allowance-stakes conditions, with a maximum of 130 pounds -- light weight for Dr. Fager and one of the reasons that Nerud agreed to come west.

On a personal note, it was one of the thrills of my early racing days being among the crowd of 50,208 who jammed the Inglewood oval. The Race of the Century a year earlier between Dr. Fager, Damascus and Buckpasser had whetted everyone's appetite on the West Coast to see the good doctor. Damascus and Buckpasser had already come this way, both campaigning on the much more favorable Santa Anita surface. And this would likely be the only chance we would ever have to see Dr. Fager in California.

On a sunny, warm May afternoon, Dr. Fager broke alertly, but there was no way he could outbreak the sprinters inside of him. As expected, Kissin' George, Rising Market and Dr. Roy E all gunned for the lead. As the field went around the clubhouse turn, Dr. Fager was a tad wide in fourth. The first quarter went in 22 2/5. As the field straightened down the backstretch, Braulio Baeza slowly guided Dr. Fager into second place along the rail behind Kissin' George. The half went in 45 flat.

Turning for home, Dr. Fager took the lead, passing the six furlongs in 1:08 3/5. From there, he simply coasted to the wire.

I can still hear track announcer Harry Henson's call as Dr. Fager took the lead from Kissin' George. The champion mare Gamely came along for second, but as the Daily Racing Form chartcaller noted, Dr. Fager "drew away and won with authority." The margin at the end was three lengths. The time was 1:40 4/5, almost two seconds off the track and world record -- *but* that was set by Swaps in 1956 (1:39 flat).

Dr. Fager and John Nerud left Hollywood Park as quickly as they had come. Dr. Fager had arrived on Thursday, galloped on Friday, won the Californian on Saturday, and was safely bedded down back in his barn at Belmont Park in New York on Monday morning.

But, while Dr. Fager came and went quickly to California, there are those of us among the 50,000-plus at Hollywood Park that afternoon who will carry the memory of his performance with us forever. He was simply awesome.

Postscript: Dr. Fager was inducted in the Hall of Fame at the National Museum of Racing at Saratoga Springs, NY, just three years after he left the racetrack. He went to stud at Tartan Farm near Ocala, FL, where he stood for eight years before his premature death at age 12 on August 5, 1976. Death was attributed to a colon obstruction.

No one is more keenly aware than Beattie that there is no guarantee a horse will stay in top condition so why keep him in the barn, particularly when you scare off all but 4 challengers, one of which is a 3YO, another which ran for a tag two races ago, and the other two have never won a stakes?

By the way, isn't Nerud Scottish? If it isn't it should be. We could use a bit more of their national fortitude in our game today. The spirit is demonstrated quite eloquently by Robin Williams' Golf Pt 1 on You Tube.

John Sherriffs and Todd Beattie, this Bud is for you.

Posted by: Mathieu on July 05, 2009 at 02:48 PM

-->

Tinky is absolutely correct that the opening quarter split of the UN is dead wrong. I believe something tripped the sensor prematurely. If you watch the replay closely, the quarter mile split is DISPLAYED long before Precious Passion arrives at the pole, meaning it was tripped even before that. You can actually pause the screen and see the pole clearly ahead of Precious Passion, yet the quarter split is already displayed. According to the "official" chart, Precious Passion ran his second quarter in :25&2. Hand-timing it (with my favorite recent discovery, "Hold The Button"), I get something closer to :23, which is much more believable. Does anyone really think he slowed down enough to run his second quarter 6+ seconds slower than his first?

Tinky,
Good luck hand-timing that opening quarter. Monmouth's camera angles, trees, configuration, and pole placement makes it very, very difficult to do. It was hard to judge exactly where the timing actually began. I don't know what Precious Passion's opening quarter was. I'd guess it was in the :21-:22+ range. It was certainly not :19&4.

Don't get me wrong, this horse ran a very fast race yesterday.

Posted by: C on July 05, 2009 at 02:49 PM

-->

I've never posted here before but I read often & find many comments instructive.

Re: Presious Passion. Not knocking the performance but how can that 1st quarter time be right? :19 & 4? It doesn't make any sense on a couple of levels. It would mean PP slowed down markedly in his 2nd Q, to :25 & 2 while lengthening his lead. Does that make sense?

I should add that I haven't broken out a stopwatch to confirm. Just pointing out what seems obvious.

Let's see, he broke the old course record by somewhere around 2 seconds, correct? If one checks beaten lengths on the chart, that means close to the entire field beat the course record yesterday by varying degrees which is another cause for pause, IMO.

Or, everything is accurate & I just witnessed history.

Posted by: STG on July 05, 2009 at 03:01 PM

-->

vicstu,
One thing about track and/or stakes records. Even if Presious Passion's time is correct, I might be excited about it or even think he's one of the better turfers out there. However, at least in this case, the track record would not be a main reason why. How many 1 3/8 turf races does Monmouth run every year? The UN might be the only one, or 1 of 2. Odd-distance track records, especially at mid-level places like Monmouth are probably best taken with a grain of salt. OK, maybe a large grain or 2 grains. But it's not much to get crazy about. The UN itself sometimes attracts some OK horses, and certainly English Channel was pretty good, but the race hasn't featured a stellar field in quite some time... it's not what it once was. Presious Passion was good, but this year's group was mid-handicap level at best.

James,
Again, a good performance regardless of the splits and times, but I have a very hard time buying that he's going to be a match against even B-level Euros at 12 furlongs come Breeders Cup time. He wasn't even the best turfer who won yesterday. That would be Sea The Stars, who, right now, would crush Presious Passion in any truly run turf route, imo. Keep in mind Presious Passion also seems to do his best running at Monmouth.

Posted by: C on July 05, 2009 at 03:37 PM

-->

Dan,
My previous post disappeared...

Anyway, Tinky is correct that the opening quarter is WRONG. On the video, the quarter split is displayed BEFORE Presious Passion even arrives at the pole, meaning something else tripped the wire first. Also, as STG points out, is it believable that Presious Passion slowed down enough to run the 2nd quarter 6+ seconds slower than the first? I hand-timed the 2nd quarter and got something around :23 flat. The first quarter was very hard to time from the video, but I'd guess in was in the :21+ range, which is still really fast, but it's not :19+4.

Posted by: C on July 05, 2009 at 03:46 PM

-->

To my way of timing this race, it appears that the opening 1/4 is around :22 2/5th's. I have no reason to question the other splits, as mine seemed to be in line with the track's. It was a very fast time, but Lauro clearly ran fast as well, leading me to believe that the course was playing extremely fast. Extremely, extremely fast!

Great race though, and Presious Passion is highly entertaining to watch.

Posted by: Van Savant on July 05, 2009 at 04:51 PM

-->

DRF Chart has the fractions as 22.2, 45.2, 1:09.8, 1:34.7, 1:59.1, 2:10.97. Blisteringly fast.

C: If you want to posit that some anonymous euro will probably beat PP in the BC, fine. If it's one horse against a continent's worth, you're probably right. One could also say that "some euro" will probably beat Einstein or MTB in the Classic too.

If PP runs in the Turf, I'm backing him big time, as long as the turf is dry and fast (firm fast turf is, for my money, more legit a surface than the tiring, soggy bogs that the Euros run on), let Sea the Stars or whoever try to close from 15 lengths out of it at Santa Anita. Hope we get to see it. I know I would get better odds than you.

And to use Tinky's criterion, Sea the Stars needs to step it up, he only finished an embarassing length in front of Rip Wan Winkle.

PP can certainly pull a Buck's Boy, when he beat Royal Anthem in '98, opening up and having the race won before the european jockeys even realized there was a race on.

Finally, it's amusing how everyone is briskly retreating to the position that Presious Passion "isn't one of the all time greats", when he hasn't even been favored in any of these races he's been winning against a "mediocre" bunch of turfers. Gee, and I thought he was better than Manila (irony alert).

No, he's not an all-time great, though he certainly deserves to be in the HOF for gameness, and yesterday was great, absolutely the race of the year (closely followed by his other two starts, wherein he displayed superequine gameness).

Posted by: James Mc. on July 05, 2009 at 06:01 PM

-->

James Mc.

Just in case you weren't aware of it, RVW is a very good, late-developing three-year-old, making his third start of the year (and fifth overall). Lauro is a thoroughly exposed older horse.

Poor analogy.

Posted by: tinky on July 05, 2009 at 07:06 PM

-->

RE: Monmouth Park turf track records

All of the turf track records at Monmouth Park have been set since the "new" turf course was unveiled a couple of years ago. The turf surface there is currently lightening fast...

How many 1 3/8 mile races have been run on the turf since it was renovated? Not many, right? And, of the small number, what were the pace scenarios like in the others? Was the surface as fast? Obviously the Breeder's Cup didn't set any records as they ran over a very soft surface...

Not to take anything away from PP's very impressive performance, but it was ridiculously quirky and not at all formful as the rest of the field was completely thrown off... As Tinky mentioned, one must consider Lauro's second place performance in only losing by 2 lengths to properly put PP's overall performance in perspective... PP is a very cool horse and it was certainly his day!!!

Posted by: Blue Horseshoe on July 05, 2009 at 07:48 PM

-->

James,
Who knows whether Sea The Stars will even run in the Turf. That's not really the point. I was making a generalization based on previous BC entries and results. When Europe sends their A-team, they win our better turf events a fairly high percentage of the time; when they send their B-team (as they've done for the past decade), they still win more than their fair share; and even with the C-team (Red Rocks as a 3YO comes to mind), they've been at least competitive. Of course there are exceptions both ways.

Historically speaking, I'm not sure where Presious Passion fits in terms of US-based BC Turf candidates. I think he's in the middle of the list, at best. I'm not sure where some of the current hot Euro prospects fit among their past runners either. However, I do know that Sea The Stars, just as an example, beat last year's BC winner Conduit (who himself won the Turf as a B-/C+ level Euro last year). I should mention that I've never been a big fan/believer in the "transitivity" law for horse racing (ie, if A beats B and B beats C, then A should beat C too). But as measuring sticks, Sea The Stars, Conduit and Lauro are all we have right now... it's early though.

Posted by: C on July 05, 2009 at 10:34 PM

-->

Pretty decent handicapping coupled with poor multi-race wager construction (my achilles heel of late) leads to a losing day on a solid July 5th race card. The story of my last few months of wagering.

I sometimes (like today) think way too much which keeps me from cashing tickets -- decent paying tickets. It's just so frustrating to see horses you found following hours of handicapping not ending up on your multi-race (my usual plays) tickets at post time.

I suppose I need to learn better discipline or just construct my tickets early and not be swayed by the board or last minute swinging for the fences. Anyways I cost myself a pretty penny in my rolling P3s by replacing R3 winner Hurricane Ike (5-1) at the last minute with Peacock Alliance (53-1).

So thanks for listening to me vent ... it helps ... well kinda.

- robertSD

Posted by: robertSD on July 05, 2009 at 11:32 PM

-->

James Mc,

I agree. Amazing race. Speed favoring turf? Sure. But still amazing.

Tinky,

I timed the opening split with a computerized timer and came up with 21.6 for PP's opening quarter. The rest of the fractions, however, including the half in 45.1, are right there. That time of 21.6 and the rest of the splits are pretty close to what DRF's timer got as well.

In sum, the splits on the chart beginning with 45.1 and ending with the final time of 2:10.97 are correct. Crist at his blog also stated that those are the correct splits. The 19.6 was bogus, either a posting error or someone tripped the timer too early (I suppose).

Regardless, those splits listed are still very fast for a mile and 3/8. Surely you are not arguing that PP did not open up 20 lengths on that field within a matter of seconds--because the video does not lie.

And it does not necessarily follow that if one split is wrong, all the splits are wrong. Clearly a non sequitor.
Where is the proof? We go through this every year it seems (I remember Lawyer Ron's track record for 9 panels at the Spa undergoing scrutiny because there was "no way" he ran that fast). Lawyer Ron's track record still stands and until I hear otherwise PP destroyed the track record at 11 panels.

Look Tinky, no one is comparing PP to the all time greats. I put his fractions next to Secretariat's at the Belmont Stakes to give it context. Still, the race DID make history in the context that it shattered the track record. And although I was just a little boy when Big Red broke that track record at Belmont, I can recall as late as 1980 certain Maryland based trainers dismissing that time as being run on a "parking lot: the first time there was zero kickback or spray at Big Sandy". They accused the track of aiding that record for the T/C (and these were reputable trainers who trained very good to GREAT horses).

So, for instance, if Bud Delp was still around I am sure he would take exception to anyone comparing Secretariat's world record to The Bid's world record at 10 panels (on what Delp claimed was a tiring track that did Relaunch in after 8 furlongs).

History has a way of sorting through things, so I will correct what I said as merely
a "great" run, rather than "historical". But it was a great run. And regardless of what anyone says, track records are normally broken on surfaces that are playing very fast for that day. And I am sure Beyer will not know what to do with that time, but BSFs for turf have always been suspect.

As for the field, there were several graded stakes winners in that field, including a grade 1 turf winner (CV) and multiple graded stakes winning turf horses such as Strike a Deal, Brass Hat, Spice Route and Wesley. Can they beat Europe's best? No, probably not. However, they are not chump change.

As for Lauro, that was his 3rd race back after a layoff. He runs close to the pace, and on a speed favoring surface the horse runs very well. Is he on Europe's A list that C listed? No. However, the horse DID when he Longchamp in France (Prix de L' Avre). He also won twice in graded stakes at 11 and 12 furlongs in Cologne, Ger. Clearly the horse can run if he gets a track he likes. The AWD in Europe of his sire is well over 10f and the AWD of his broodmare sire is almost 13f, so as specious as AWDs may be, the horse is CLEARLY bred to get a route of ground.

You are entitled to your opinion. I respect your opinion. I think what PP did Saturday was remarkable. Please let me know what other horse has opened up 20 lengths on the field in a race 11 furlongs or longer and held on to win by multiple lengths while running the final furlong in under 12 seconds.

I will be waiting for the name of that horse...

And I am aware that Overdose (Hungary), last year's Euro top rated sprinter, routinely opened up multiple length leads and always held on strongly to win--but he is a sprinter (and currently injured as I am sure you know)

Bottom line: One hell of a run by Precious Passion, opening quarter glitch or second place finisher notwithstanding.

Posted by: vicstu on July 06, 2009 at 01:25 AM

-->

Hey, does anyone have any clue when Tiago will return? What exactly is wrong with him? All I remember is that he didn't want to eat his food around Big Cap time.

Posted by: Reinier on July 06, 2009 at 02:51 AM

-->

Race of the day

Ariege - No problem!

Posted by: chaazz on July 06, 2009 at 08:53 AM

-->

I want to send into cyberspace some good wishes to Bobby Frankel, who apparently is very ill.

He's the best trainer I have ever seen (from my side) and I don't know how many times - years and years ago - that a blind bet on one of his charges saved me from all sorts of tumult. As a former compulsive gambler, I can tell you that he saved my ass on more than a few occasions when I was into the rent money.

His notorious love for animals (his dogs, mainly)always made me believe that he is one of the good guys, in a sport filled with bad guys. He is one of those good guys who liked to wear the black hat, a black that belied his true nature.

In a world of tell-all theatre, led by the Oprahs and Dr. Phils, I have long admired the fact that he is a very private person.

I know he's a fighter, and hopefully this is just a bump in the road on the way to a long life.

Here's the drf story:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/105253.html

Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 06, 2009 at 11:47 AM

-->

Hey, does anyone have any clue when Tiago will return?

Posted by: Reinier

Sherriffs is keeping him in the barn while Moss' lawyers fight to get him eligible again for the Santa Anita Derby.

Posted by: Mathieu on July 06, 2009 at 12:34 PM

-->

Reiner,

Check out Dan's Disabled List on the right of each thread in red. Tiago was off for three weeks due to colic but had a strong 5F work on 5/31 of 59 and change. Also, you can sign up for Horse Watch and have each work and race entry e mailed to you.

Posted by: Mathieu on July 06, 2009 at 12:43 PM

-->

A couple of notes:

22 3/5-22 4/5 sounds realistic for the first quarter, which would have it in line with the rest of the fractions. While 1 3/8 Miles is a distance Monmouth only runs a handful of times a year, even so, 2:10.97 under any circumstances is a huge effort, especially leading all the way going 11 panels. That was only a few ticks off the world record for the distance, and while the turf was obviously very firm (allowance horses went a sub-1:34 mile earlier in the card), it still was huge.

As for Dr. Fager, he simply points out how deep the three year old class of 1967 was, and even 40+ years later is probably the deepest class ever. That Woodward of 1967 where Dr. Fager, Buckpasser and Damascus met probably still is the biggest non-Triple Crown race of the past 50 years.

One other item: There was a gate malfunction of some kind in the first race at Philly Park today (Monday 7/6), and the race was declared a no-contest.

Posted by: Walt on July 06, 2009 at 01:02 PM

-->

Let me also pass along my best wishes to Bobby Frankel. Love or hate him, he has been one of the best for a long time.

Posted by: Walt on July 06, 2009 at 02:23 PM

-->

Wow! I finally got to watch the replay of the UN at Monmouth. Despite the doubts about the correctness of the splits and the quality of the field, just watching my favorite type of horse, a front running, game, catch me if you can, running fool was enough for me. But the best part, (at least on the replay I watched at Bloodhorse-extended version) is the pull up and gallop out. Check out how PP will not pull up behind any other horse, fusses when next to another when coming through the gap onto the main track and then takes off like a bat out of hell and passes all the other horses on the way back to the winner's circle, his ears were pricked and the jock had his feet in the dashboard the whole time. Regardless of whether he is top notch graded stakes quality or not, PP IS A RACEHORSE with the heart and guts we all like to see!

Good thing it was fun in Chicago because I am UNHAPPY about not being at Monmouth that day.

Posted by: turnbackthealarm on July 06, 2009 at 02:47 PM

-->

Chicago-area Formbloggers:

Anyone planning to attend Arlington Park on Saturday, July 11?

It is the fifth installment of their live-money handicapping contest. I am planning on being there and would love to handicap the day's races with anyone else who might also be there. It is Million Preview Day so there should be some quality racing.

Midwest Ed

Posted by: Midwest Ed on July 06, 2009 at 02:49 PM

-->

Hello All..

Hope all had a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend. What a race at Monmouth. I wonder about that time? That horse looked like he was running on cement. You cannot compare that race with some of the greats. Very suspect in my eyes. Taking my Monday and Tuesday off as usual. Back wagering on Wednesday.

6th at Suffolk
#3 Fondant
$11,971 Win Pool
$3,870 Place Pool
$35,798 Show Pool

Won for fun....
Get well Bobby Frankel...
Sad to see Mike Smith on MTB...I wanted his EX to get the mount. I think that she deserved a shot. She has rode the horse and I did NOT like his ride in MTB last race...

LOL to all this week..OUT

Posted by: Whackymacky on July 06, 2009 at 03:32 PM

-->

I am surprised there has been no mention of today's Philly Steak. I lost my chew is not an unfamiliar chant heard on the corner, while others have said, "watch out for colora!"

How about the stake at Indiana Downs, tomorrow? Stake on Tuesday? One of my early Derby horses (wow was that bad), No Inflation, who has surprised on the turf, is second choice (hardly a lock, though) at 3-1. Another hoss I like, Turfiste (speed), is also running, but he's been instilled as the 3rd choice (7-2) by a stingy oddsmaker, who's probably the genral manager's brother-in-law. There oughta be a law.

***

Off the subject, I was floored to pick up the paper today and read about Steve McNair, who always had a place on my all-pro team because of his courage and willingness to play in pain. He burned the raiders on numerous occasions, even during the Raiders mini-resurgence around the millenium.

I don't know what happened, but I have a hard time believing that a 20yo woman plugged him 4 times, twice in the chest, twice in the head, then shot herself in the head. That doesn't sound right to me, that sounds more like ex-boyfriend type of rage, but I guess anything is possible. Yeah, I've watched lots of 48 Hours, too, and I guess I'm just skeptical about murder-suicide from a psychological profile point of view. That's an execution, not an "I hate you![shoot once, MAYBE twice] OMG, what have I done?"-type of lover's shooting.

In any case, RIP Steve McNair.

I think McNair is HOF worthy, myself, but he shouldn't get in before Plunkett and Stabler (2 travesties), not to mention Cliff Branch (total travesty) or Ray Guy (general travesty), although they weren't QBs, of course, well, Guy could play QB (quite well, actually, a terrific athlete). Plunkett and Stabler each called their own plays, in some of the greatest NFL games ever played, in fact, I think today's game has been bastardized by the all-controlling "offensive cooridinator" system (micro-managing every single aspect, making the players "pieces" to be manipulated, instead of utilizing and enhancing their unique abilities to create and use their special instincts, in some cases), but don't get me started.

Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 06, 2009 at 04:14 PM

-->

I feel bad now that a few weeks ago I declared the Bobby Frankel era over, especially because I have always liked Frankel. The news today does explain a lot, however, and shows that it's not always just the horseflesh that wins races, it takes a keen horseman as well. I have been following the races since 1992 and Frankel trained the greatest horse I have ever seen in Ghostzapper. In fact, if I could bet one race all over again, it would Zapper's Breeders Cup when the pub let him off at 5-2. I should have bet my entire bankroll on him. Bobby Frankel also trained the only horse coming off a zero Beyer that I have ever bet. I forget the horse, but he had been eased in his last and was back in three weeks. I trusted Frankel enough to throw that race out and that he wouldn't be running if Frankel didn't think he could win. He won.

Posted by: jim tully on July 06, 2009 at 04:21 PM

-->

"I trusted Frankel enough to throw that race out and that he wouldn't be running if Frankel didn't think he could win."

Likewise, I never trusted anyone jumping a horse from NW1 or NW2 to a GI or GII like Brooklyn Bobby...

Posted by: p ensign on July 06, 2009 at 05:20 PM

-->

SR VEGAS-we don't have Winchester Bay anymore-he got claimed at Oaklawn (Still wish I had remembered to bet him-he gives 100% every time he runs!)

Posted by: Stephen L. Taylor on July 06, 2009 at 09:18 PM

-->

1-It's a Echo Rumor(15-1)
Picked her feet up a bit in the late stages last time but has already lost to many of the others. Trainer is 0-24/jockey is 2-38, though does sport best last BSF--still, hard to like.

2-Jestic Light(10-1)
Comes out of very good claimimg efforts sporting best lifetime BSF-I'm guessing trainer and jockey are father/son(?) w/good (almost identical) stats. Worth a long look.

3-Alert Alert(4-1)
Ever since bullet on 4/22 this runner has been on the improve--note last out winner came back to score in follow-up and drops 4lbs--big contender.

4-Pawpaw Bobbys Baby(8-1)
3-yo ships has worked solidly in advance--has yet to catch dry dirt and triner is very solid--beware the FG shipper.

5-Carmel Doll(6-1)
Royal Academy over a Maria's Mon mare with a string of very solid works and lasix for debut? All the upside is there--but can she run with others?

6-Quick Hit(8-1)
Her debut was encouraging--albeit at 20k--top conditioner and reliable rider plus improved post gives this one a real shot.

7-Lady Regent(8-1)
Forwardly placed for a half in debut but couldn't stay with the 3 and the 8 looks faster--not for me.

8-Maxincomefree(9-2)
Must consider as best speed threat--bested the 1 two back and earned 60 BSF--similar performance would be tough to beat--top contender.

9-Mary's Deal(3-1)
Gets FTL and switch to top percentage rider can't hurt--still, has lost to the 3 and no posted works give me mixed signals--only at a better price.

I have a tough time splitting the 8, 5, and 3 as my best so I'll take the firster who should offer the best value in a field of mostly proven also-rans.

$20 WP 5 = $40
$5 Tri Key 5/3,4,6,8 = $60
Total = $100

Good Luck and Good Racing!

Posted by: meadowlake59 on July 08, 2009 at 02:19 PM

Name:
Email Address:(Not displayed with comment)
URL:
Remember personal info?
Comments:

December 2009

Archives

The Doctor is In.

Comments

Post a comment

About

Recent Posts

Recent Comments

Disabled List