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FormBlog | July 07, 2009
Urban Sea
Dan,
Is the late Urban Sea officially/unofficially designated as a Blue Hen? Also, prior to her death this spring, she delivered a colt by Invincible Spirit - were there any foals from 2007 or 2008?
Alan
"Great" is a term that is handed out way too liberally in the sporting world. When considering the produce record of Urban Sea, however, one is tempted to recite "greater" superlatives. I'm not certain if she's an "official" blue hen mare, but if she isn't, then it's a crime. Let's take a closer look at the Miswaki mare with her lifetime past performances listed below:
She was a good racer, taking eight of 23 starts for earnings of over $1.7M. Trained throughout her career by Jean Lesbordes, Urban Sea began in nondescript fashion, running second in a seven-furlong sprint at Evry. She even suffered the indignity of falling in the listed Prix Imprudence to kickstart her three-year-old campaign.
As a multiple listed winner in Frnace, Urban Sea shipped to the United States for a pair of North American graded engagements. She ran a solid second to Hatoof in the E.P. Taylor before flattening out three weeks later in the Yellow Ribbon.
It was at four that Urban Sea flourished. She won the Prix Exbury over males in her seasonal coming-out party, then would eventually bring a two-race win streak into the 1993 Arc de Triomphe.
Dismissed at 37-1 odds, Urban Sea was all-out to hold off fellow longshot White Muzzle in Europe's signature race. The victory earned her highweighted older mare honors between 11-13 1/2 furlongs on the European Free Handicap that year.
Although she only won once at five, Urban Sea's shocking Arc score solidified her place in racing history. The best was yet to come.
Mated with Bering, Urban Sea produced her first foal, Urban Ocean, in 1996. The colt sold for 230,000 guineas as a yearling, and his big win came in the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes as a three-year-old. Here's what our friends at The Racing Post had to say about the performance:
"A game effort from the front-running URBAN OCEAN, who is bred to stay at least a mile and a half. Clear after 2f, he came under pressure early in the straight and never flinched, battling on well to beat Sunshine Street, who closed on him turning for home and who had every chance from 2f out until faltering in the last half-furlong.
No firm plans were available for the winner but the Irish Derby would look an obvious target for this tough and improving colt."
Urban Ocean never really fulfilled expectations as he finished sixth in the Irish Derby behind Montjeu, and fifth behind the same rival in the Tattersalls Gold Cup later in the year. Urban Ocean was still highweighted at three on the Irish Free Handicap between 9 1/2-11 furlongs.
Urban Sea foaled a Lammtarra filly in 1997, and Melikah was sold for 10,000,000 francs as a yearling. Campaigned by Godolphin, she won the listed Pretty Polly Stakes at ten furlongs. From The Racing Post:
"MELIKAH, making her racecourse debut and obviously green, stuck to her guns well to pick up Clog Dance, although the form is questionable due to a desperately slow pace during the first half of the event.
The strong impression afterwards was that Godolphin will be surprised if Melikah proves their best contender for the Vodafone Oaks next month. Nevertheless, the superbly bred daughter of Arc winners Lammtarra and Urban Sea is clearly useful.
Simon Crisford, Godolphin´s racing manager, said: "They went no gallop and the race turned into a sprint, which was no good for her as she is bred to want 1m4f plus. What we hope now is that she can live up to her pedigree; she´s in the Oaks picture now but we have some other fillies as well for that and we shall know more in a couple of weeks´ time.
"Frankie liked her a lot and said that she could be an Oaks filly. But the early pace was so slow it really was a farce. You don´t learn much in races like that.""
Ridden by Chris McCarron in the Oaks, Melikah finished third behind Henry Cecil's Love Devine, the 9/4 favorite in the field of sixteen. The following month, she finished second in the Irish Oaks as the 2-1 chalk, five and one-half lengths behind Sir Michael Stoute's Petroushka.
Urban Sea's next foal, the Sadler's Wells colt, Galileo, would bring the mare international renown. Galileo won six of eight starts for over $2.2M in earnings, and was named Europe's champion three-year-old in 2001. He ran away with the Epsom Derby, winning the classic by 3 1/2 lengths from Golan. The Racing Post was suitably blown away:
"A magnificent performance from GALILEO to beat a high-class field like this by the widest margin since 1993. It was also the second-fastest Derby time ever, despite the early pace having been far from searching, and despite the winner being eased down a shade.
One has to go back to Generous and Nashwan for a Derby winner who made a similar impression, and neither of them beat colts of the calibre of Golan, who was hugely impressive himself in the 2,000 Guineas, and Tobougg, a dual Group 1 winner as a two-year-old.
Galileo had not been especially impressive in winning the same Leopardstown race that Sinndar had won last year, but he had evidently trained exceptionally well and shown an extraordinary amount of speed. That speed was evident here, both in the ease with which he travelled-perfectly placed throughout-and more particularly in the manner in which he quickened right away in the final 2f.
As soon as he went to the front the race was as good as over, and he could have pulled a little further clear if his rider had wished. He shows so much speed at home that connections were talking privately before the race of dropping him back to 10f for the Coral Eurobet Eclipse Stakes at Sandown, and then-in a move that would not even have been contemplated by the connections of any other modern Derby winner-going back even further in distance and challenging for top honours at a mile in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, before finishing off in the Breeders´ Cup.
Whatever route they take-and it could equally turn out to be the Irish Derby, King George and Irish Champion Stakes-Galileo is going to be extremely hard to beat in anything but the sort of searching stamina test that he is unlikely to be risked in."
Forget Richard Dutrow's boasts that the Belmont Stakes was a "foregone" conclusion for the luckless Big Brown. If ever there was a foregone conclusion, it was in the Irish Derby as Galileo, the 4/11 favorite in the field of 12, bounded home a facile winner over Italian Derby winner Morshdi.
The Racing Post was ready to proclaim him a superhorse:
"This was the lap of honour that had been generally anticipated, with GALILEO winning in superb style. Just as at Epsom, Michael Kinane had him perfectly positioned throughout, and he quickened off a good pace to forge clear from two furlongs out. A superbly athletic performer, he has nothing left to prove at 1m4f, and deserves to go down as one of the finest horses to have completed the Derby double.
Few horses who have managed that feat have shown so much speed, and the time of the race (on ground that varied on different sections of the course) was considerably faster than Sinndar´s winning effort a year ago.
His five victories have come on five different going descriptions, and allied to that versatility, he has the enormous asset of being a perfectly relaxed individual. Although he had got a little warm by the time he got to the start, where he was dismounted by Kinane, he never looked less than composed. His superiority was evident through every section of the race. Coming down the hill towards the straight, Kinane was sitting motionless, with all the other jockeys applying varying degrees of pressure."
Galileo ran his undefeated streak to six by upending the older Fantastic Light in the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes. Fantastic Light would get his revenge in the Irish Champion Stakes, but the two would never meet in a rubber match. Galileo's connections, the vaunted Coolmore syndicate, opted to try dirt in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Belmont Park, and Galileo met his Waterloo in the form of Tiznow.
Now one of the top sires in the world, Galileo virtually ensures that Urban Sea's name will endure for many, many generations to come.
While he didn't achieve his older brother's stature, Black Sam Bellamy earned Group 1 success in both the Gran Premio del Jockey Club in Italy, and the Tattersalls Gold Cup in Ireland. He finished third in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud to close out his juvenile campaign, then ran fifth in the French Derby, and tenth in the Arc in his next two Group 1 appearances. After a last-place finish in the Prix Ganay in his second start at four, Black Sam Bellamy pulled off the minor upset in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. From The Racing Post:
"A most impressive performance from BLACK SAM BELLAMY who grabbed the race by the scruff of the neck early in the straight and proceeded to gallop the rest into the ground. He had some quite good form last season, a lot of it over a mile and a half, and looked good on his return at Leopardstown. However, he then flopped in the Ganay for no apparent reason. He has clearly improved considerably since last season and will be a force to be reckoned with in the Coronation Cup and other top middle-distance races.
Trainer Aidan O´Brien said: "We don´t really know what happened in the Ganay. I could have been a bit easy on him after Leopardstown and the ground was loose in France, and Mick said he didn´t really grab hold of it. We are thinking of the Coronation if he gets ease in the ground and comes out of this well."
Black Sam Bellamy failed to win again, but he did run third in the Coronation Cup, and second in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Baden in Germany. Like big brother Galileo, Black Sam Bellamy stands at stud in Ireland.
Urban Sea's foal of 2000, Atticus, never made it to the races, but the son of Sadler's Wells also stands in Ireland.
Finally, a Sadler's Wells filly! All Too Beautiful was foaled in 2001, and she sold for 1,100,000 irish guineas as a weanling. She went on to grab the Group 3 Middleton Stakes at four. From The Racing Post:
"They went a good pace here and ALL TOO BEAUTIFUL was able to confirm her unquestionable class in a race where, on official ratings, she had 9lb and more in hand of her rivals. After being held up in behind she was asked to close up in the final half mile and, coming to join the long-time leader over a furlong out, kept on to land the spoils. She raced with her head a little high but there was certainly no doubting her resolution. However, she gave the impression she wouldn´t want the really fast conditions that are more usual around the time of the Yorkshire Oaks. She heads for the Pretty Polly at the Curragh now and looks the sort to progress further this term."
The Middleton was the final start of All Too Beautiful's career.
Bred to the powerful Giant's Causeway, Urban Sea produced My Typhoon in 2002, and the weanling sold for a whopping 1,800,000 at that November's Tattersalls sale. My Typhoon was purchased by Live Oak Plantation, shipped across the world, and nestled down in Bill Mott's stateside barn. She won eight stakes races and over $1.3M, including the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga.
Unfortunately, Urban Sea was barren on a cover to Sadler's Wells in 2003, but she produced the Green Desert filly Cherry Hinton the following season. Cherry Hinton failed to win her maiden in five career starts, but she did place in the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes before finishing fifth in the Vodafone Oaks and eleventh in the Coronation Stakes.
That Green Desert cross just didn't seem to take as Urban Sea's 2005 foal, a colt named Sea's Legacy, failed to reach the races.
Bred with Cape Cross, Urban Sea produced Sea the Stars in 2006, and the colt has wowed European turficionados with wins in the English Two Thousand Guineas, the Epsom Derby, and the Coral Eclipse Stakes.
From The Racing Post analysis of the Eclipse:
"We build these big races up so much these days that there is inevitably a risk of anti-climax, but not this time. The Curragh´s loss was Sandown´s gain and hopes that SEA THE STARS might confirm himself the horse of a lifetime by following further inthe footsteps of the great Nashwan over this intermediate trip were gloriously vindicated with yet another performance right out of the very top drawer.
Sea The Stars had already been the first horse since Nashwan to achieve the 2,000 Guineas and Derby double, and although his winning margin here was nowhere near so extravagant as Nashwan´s 20 years ago, he was beating a better colt. The pair left two classic winners trailing the best part of five and ten lengths further adrift at the end of a race run at an end-to-end gallop, thanks to three pacemakers, and the form looks outstanding.
The winning time of 2min 03.40sec was little more than a second outside Kalaglow´s course record, which was set in the 1982 Brigadier Gerard Stakes on an afternoon of outstanding times, and by far the fastest set in the Eclipse in more than 40 years, bettering by almost a second the next best achieved by Mtoto in 1987."
Urban Sea was a bit unlucky the following two breeding seasons. She was barren to Shamardal in 2007, and her Pivotal foal died in 2008. She has a weanling colt by Invincible Spirit.
From 11 foals, Urban Sea has eight runners, seven winners, and six graded blacktype winners for total earnings of $6,889,454.
***
Dan,
In the DRF pp's, what is the lower case "r" where the lower case "f' is for front bandages? I have seen many horses wear rear bandages, wrapped up very high and tight that are not just rundowns.
Also, the Tomlinson ratings. Over 90% of the time, the distance rating for turf is greater than the overall rating for turf. My gut insinct tells me it should be the other way around. Do you know how these are calculated? Thanks.
Ron Zuercher
The 'r' stands for bar shoes. A 'n' in that space would indicate aluminum pads.
I don't use Tomlinson Ratings in my personal handicapping, but here is an explanation of some of the theories behind the figs:
http://www.drf.com/misc/tomlinson.html
I would think that he did extensive research combining bloodlines with the results of thousands upon thousands of races to come up with his ratings.
***
Congrats to Jerrry for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. He picks the third race at Evangeline on Wednesday night for this week's race. Here are the past performances:
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck,
Dan
Posted by dan_illman on July 7, 2009 | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
ROTD
If SOUTHERN ANTHEM runs give my $40 win on him.
$10 ex. pw 1,4,5/1,2,4,5.
If he scratches give me $70 win on #5 and a $10 ex.
1,4,7/5.
Good Luck
Posted by: billg on July 07, 2009 at 04:46 PM
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Considering how many mares a year even the best of stallions have to cover to produce an Epsom or Curragh Derby winner, the success of Urban Sea's progeny is nothing short of astonishing.
Posted by: malcer on July 07, 2009 at 05:27 PM
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ROTD PGM Handicapping School:
A 1 mile Turf Stakes (the Oliver) for 200K, 5th at Indiana Downs.
Trainer scratches took out three, but we still have nine horses (eight betting entries) going forward for a nice little Tuesday evening wagering exercise.
With Proctor's No Inflation out, I really like the #7 Jack Spratt in here for Michael Maker. I like the company he's kept, I like the bullet workout coming in, and I really like Laparoux up!
I look for #9 Turfiste coming in from Holthus barn to give the most challenge. HJ Theriot rides today.
The #8 Driving Snow (GB) for
Darien Miller with Mena up can also make some noise here.
Worrisome entries will be the Asmussen entry #1 Galloping Gultch (1st Turf) and 1(a) Union Strike.
William Fires has Maiden and
Allowance winner Good Sermon with John Court up also.
Wager:
$25 Win/Place on #7 Jack Spratt
$10 Exacta Box: #7 with #8,#9
$ 1 Trifecta: 7,9/7,9/1(1a),8,10
$ 1 Superfecta: 1(1a),7/1(1a)7/8,9/8,9
$50/40/6/4=$100
Posted by: Keith L. on July 07, 2009 at 05:55 PM
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HG:141
I'm gonna go with #2 JESTIC LIGHT in here as my top pick. This one is taking a jump up in class but I love the move this one made last time out from the 14 hole and was clearly 2nd best from the rest while showing a new running style in the process. #7 LADY REGENT showed the speed/fade angle 1st time out from the 11 hole and should be primed for a good effort 2nd time out with a bullet in tow. #5 CARMEL DOLL could be one to watch first time out as the barn has been cold and doesn't really get them cranked first time out, but tough to ignore the solid works and doesn't really catch a strong MSPWT field in here for the debut.
$10 EXB 2,5,7 = 60
$20 EXA 2/5,7 = 40
Posted by: Causeways37 on July 07, 2009 at 05:57 PM
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Well, Big Easy and Van Savant, is it your time to shine at Evangiline for Handigambling time? Its been a long time coming!
Posted by: Keith L. on July 07, 2009 at 05:58 PM
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$10.00 tri wheel
6/259/259
$40.00 w #9
Posted by: Russ on July 07, 2009 at 06:01 PM
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Slew:
Do yourself a favor, and take off the helmet, go outside, and look up....now notice the sky is not falling!
In your last post, last thread you called for a summit to save horse racing...citing the 17% reported drop in wagering in June as the death rattle of the dying beast (or someething like that). Try taking in July's Summit of Speed at Calder instead this Saturday. Might just cheer you up!
Lots of reasons for a 17% drop off...like the economy for one, the weather (especially in the East) for another, shortened race weeks in Kentucky and California for a third. None of them sinister. Look at the falloff in casinos, Las Vegas (Lost Wages), the action AND their stocks and bonds have been dropping prices like a bad run at the craps table. Are folks getting religion? Or is it as ol' Slick Willie used to say to himself in the mirror: "It's the economy, stupid!".
One of the most remarkable business news stories brought out in the past week was the news that the Seminole Indians were entering deals to bring a new state of the art Hard Rock Casino-Hotel-Entertainment Center to Eastern Europe (Hungary, I believe) for a 8.5 billion estimated price tag. And they still race horses over the pond now, don't they? Point is, there is a lot of competition for the gambling man's dollar...and that doesn't even count the spread of state lottery action. I do believe we can safely say horse racing will live to see another day, without the summit....but not without the Summit of Speed.
So, don't worry...have fun...make some money this weekend and you'll feel better about it all next Monday.
Posted by: Keith L. on July 07, 2009 at 06:42 PM
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Dan,
Thanks so much for all the great info on Urban Sea! You are the hardest working man in show busi.... no wait that's James Brown...but you're in 2nd!!
I've spent the last hour looking at Urban Sea's pedigree - what an incredible female line (multiple, multiple stakes winners, sires, broodmares!!) Urban Sea was broodmare of the year in 2001 and considering how well Sea the Stars is doing this year, she may get similar honors once again. It is interesting that the Green Desert cross "failed" twice yet Sea the Stars is by Cape Cross, the son of Green Desert! Invincible Spirit is also by Green Desert so we'll get to see how the 2nd generation cross works once again.
Besides her unnamed foal by Invincible Spirit, I'm also going to try to follow some of Urban Sea's grandkids. Melikah has an interesting 3yo colt named Valedictory (by Dubai Destination), who just won his 2nd start (he's 2 for 2) last month, as well as a 2yo by Giant's Causeway. All Too Beautiful had a 2yo filly by Giant's Causeway named All For Glory and a yearling by Kingmambo. My Typhoon just foaled a colt by Awesome Again.
BTW, don't be too surprised to see Valedictory run and perhaps even win the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris next week at Longchamp.
Posted by: Alan on July 07, 2009 at 07:08 PM
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"Prince of Wales's Stakes-G2
unknown jockey 126 -
Placerville116nk Urban Sea126"
what, one neck loss giving 10 pounds and they bail on the unknown jockey? not all that sporting, if you ask me.
Posted by: p ensign on July 07, 2009 at 07:40 PM
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HG 141
$50 EX 7-6
7-9
Posted by: mike o on July 07, 2009 at 07:42 PM
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I don't know where Annie is, but somehow I can hear her saying watchout for the rail horse (top last-race Beyer).
This is not an easy race, in fact, the form looks identical on many of these, a good "betting" race, as 'they' say.
I like the hoss trying the fast track for the first time, assuming it's fast tomorrow, Paw Paw. He's had som nice learning races on the turf and in the slop, improving his late position in the last two, often an indicator of future success for lightly-raced maidens switching to a preferred surface. I assume the value will be there.
The first-timer looks like he means business if the works count for anything. The trainer is over 20% in sprints and MSWs, generally-speaking. It's the right kind of field for a first-timer MSW with ability. It's not likely that any of these who have started are a threat for black type anytime soon, if ever.
***
Cayman mentioned Heart Ashley before the weekend, and while she still has a place on my HOI list, I've been concerned with the tactics lately, blaze to the front, open up around the turn, try to hold on late. It's an all-or-nothing strategy, and while it's been successful (2 of 3), I thought I saw something in this filly at the FG that demonstrated the ability to stalk and pounce, a preferred style, in my opinion (at the graded levels, anyway) because it's tactical (the hunter as opposed to the hunted), and less all-or-nothing. She quit badly on Saturday after running into tougher, she couldn't shake loose around the turn, but God bless her, she tried, and she did open a wee bit of space, but it was obviously well short of what would have been needed.
It may be too late to change her style now, I don't know, maybe we've seen her ceiling, which can be deflating. Did he sacrifice the future to win a couple races with her in the now? Possibly. Maybe she served a better purpose by feeding the barn (parim-mutuelly speaking) in two all-or-nothing efforts, which has left her a bit spent in the meantime? That's why one (a gambler) must strike while the iron is hot, I suppose.
I'll be disappointed (in the training) if we've seen her best, already.
***
I see Porte Bonheur skipped the summit of speed to stay at the longer sprint distances, which says something (good) about their confidence in her right now. Clearly, the summit of speed was plan B if the longer distances were not to their satisfaction. She's still a good one.
***
Speaking of the Summit of Speed, I can imagine Igaki rebounding at Calder cutting back to his preferred distance. In a 6-horse field, mightn't he slip away at 5 or 6-1? There's not a whole lot of speed signed up.
If you want to know how the fields have been set, go to news/local reports/calder, the top story on Benny The Bull lists all the expected starters in the big races. There's 8 or 9 in the other big sprint with Indian Blessing. That's a race begging for an upset. All in all, it should be a good summit, not great, but potentially well-playing, vertically.
Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 07, 2009 at 07:51 PM
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Maidens at a minor league track? Muskrats! Not worthy of any detailed analysis, at least not from moi.
$8 exacta box 1,5,6,8
$1 tri 8 with 5,6 with 1,5,6
Posted by: Zan the Man on July 07, 2009 at 07:54 PM
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Handigambling 141
$ 25 exacta box 5 & 8
$ 50 to win on the 5
First time starter is showing bullets in the morning and not a lot of world beaters in here.
Mike
Posted by: AP Mike on July 07, 2009 at 07:59 PM
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HandiGambling 141
#4 Pawpaw Bobby's Baby hasn't had a dry track on which to run and now goes on the softer circuit. Bet well at the Fairgrounds.
$5 Trifecta #4/ 2,3,6,7,8/ 2,3,6,7,8 for a total of $100
Posted by: Ed A on July 07, 2009 at 08:34 PM
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got to love these high dollar horses ive found you have 2 watch the odds because lots off track people have and inside edge here but ill play the 8 off two 2nd place finishes maybe the first timer will run he has some good works so ill box the 5 and 8 for 50.00
Posted by: crazyhorsemike on July 07, 2009 at 09:02 PM
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I'm not going to belabor the Presious Passion thing, I'll leave the argument about the UN aside and just make a few brief final points.
Tinky: My statement that I wasn't "comparing" him to Cigar only meant that I don't class him as a truly great horse like Cigar was. And I'll even stipulate that the conditions in the UN were extremely favorable.
What astonishes me about this horse is the combination of this race and the prior one, in which he was passed and came back on. The combination of speed demon and refuse to lose street brawler is very rare.
It occurs to me that most of us are strongly conditioned to think that a horse is what he is when he's three, or four at the most.
We rarely even get to see graded stakes horses run at 5, let alone 6.
PP has been defined by his early career, running G2 and G3 and minor stakes races, winning his share. This has calibrated the general opinion of him: a decent stakes competitor, but not Grade 1 quality by any means.
But it's becoming increasingly clear that PP is at his best at 6, by far. He's way way better than he's ever been.
There are similar cases. Better Talk Now improved enormously late in his 5yo old season, and went on to shock Kitten's Joy in the BC Turf.
So who's to say that PP hasn't morphed into a bonafide, Grade I, world class turfer? He sure seems to be acting the part.
Looking forward to the rest of the campaign.
Posted by: James Mc. on July 07, 2009 at 09:04 PM
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Van Savant,
From last thread: Initially I thought it was a joke when I read that story....then I realized that the study was considered serious. Duh.....lasix stops bleeding. The scary part is, what is the point of this study?...What should be studied is, what drugs does the administration of lasix mask? Some of the best blogging I have ever read was over on Steve Crist's blog about medication in horse racing. There were tons of posts that were well written, well reasoned and by fans of horse racing who love the sport and want it saved. I saw your post too. The Jockey Club and the sponsors of Mr. Crist's speech should have printed out sheets of these ideas. Then be forced to act on them!
Alan,
Where did you get all the info on the produce of Urban Sea's daughters and sons? More importantly, was it free? That was very interesting.
Posted by: turnbackthealarm on July 07, 2009 at 09:44 PM
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Tinky,
Kiri's Clown was one of my favorites and I even went to see him at Old Friends. Like Presious Passion, he was not a great horse, but certainly exciting!
James Mc.
You must have a soft spot for the same type of horse as me.
Posted by: turnbackthealarm on July 07, 2009 at 09:47 PM
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hg 141
#3 alert alert owes me $$$
set-hut (jake delhomme)owned
train by dad jerry
#9 marys deal 1st lasix joc switch
#5 homebred (najinnski)bullet
50.00ex 3/5-9
good luck jerrry
Posted by: jerrry on July 07, 2009 at 10:06 PM
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Slew, all you had to know about Heart Ashley is she went a pressured 43 and change in a Grade 1 and took them all to the eighth pole...She'll be back.
Posted by: tonykelso on July 07, 2009 at 10:09 PM
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H.G 141
Carmel Doll #5 looks like she can win here. all the others are proven losers.
She has a bullet work at 5f and a 5f breezing gate{see Scotts "how will your horse run today"}.The only other horse would be bobby paw paw but works are uneven.
The bet $100 win #5 carmel doll.
s
Posted by: garym on July 07, 2009 at 10:25 PM
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Van Savant –
Most of what is said in that linked article is nonsense. There is some truth to there being problems with testing for infinitesimally small levels of a drug, but the assertion that racing in the U.S. has a bad rap because of this it patently absurd.
Racing should follow the cycling model, and go beyond testing for specific drugs. There should be baseline blood tests done regularly, and when post race tests come back very different, stiff penalties should be imposed. That way it doesn't really matter what specific chemicals are being used, as the blood profiles will reveal the result of the cheating.
Posted by: tinky on July 07, 2009 at 10:41 PM
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James Mc. –
Believe it or not, I'm not trying to be argumentative here. But what you describe (i.e. fast and game) applies to countless horses running all of the country. The only way to separate them is by the class of horses that they are beating.
At this point, Fabulous Strike is the highest class example of a very fast, free-running horse, that also has a tremendous will to win. But given the challenges that he routinely receives – and repulses – there is no doubt that he is more impressive than PP.
Now, you are on to something with the late-developing issue. It is a real shame that horses are often ruined in the U.S. before they have a chance to fully mature. It is also the height of ignorance that speed is so highly emphasized here, when horses that compete over long distances (as a group) stay much sounder and enjoy longer careers.
I also agree that PP may prove to be a true Grade I caliber horse. He's certainly a likable sort, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility.
Posted by: tinky on July 07, 2009 at 10:49 PM
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KiethL, that was funny, I'm a bit of a humpty-dumpty type, as many here will tell you. I'm always calling for summits, if not calling stewards to discuss a suspicious race.
I'm getting a reputation as a real go-getter (read: Nut Job). smile
Point taken.
JamesMc, what you described, the Slew of Damascus scenerio, is why I love what I do, why I love the sport of horseracing and wish to live it the rest of my life.
That magical event you described does happen from time to time. I have to admit the same thought occurred to me during this discussion - maybe he's gotten better recently?
Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 07, 2009 at 11:11 PM
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James Mc;
Nice post. I agree with you on your points, and I am enjoying this horse as you are. Your passion is spot-on, as is that of vicstu.
Let's enjoy this while we can.
That's all for now.
Posted by: Van Savant on July 07, 2009 at 11:58 PM
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Keith L;
I had already handicapped this card before I saw that jerrry had selected the third race. I had confidently handicapped that race, and then looked at my work, but as a function of a HandiGambling exercise...I suddenly had some issues.
This a tough race, no doubt, and one that I will be playing for real in many different ways, unfortunately. I was secretly hoping for the sixth race, as the #6 (Sugar Bowl Day) may actually be the only speed in that race, and could steal it at 20/1 or more...
Crazy track. Good track, but local knowledge is critical (and I have non, unfortunately).
Good luck to you fine sir, as I expect nothing but winning wagers from you here...but as for me, well...
Posted by: Van Savant on July 08, 2009 at 12:20 AM
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Alan
Nice thoughts on Urban Sea...and her Progeny
So let's find a name for
Urban Sea/ Invincible Spirit and her un-named foal.
I'll start:
Urban Spirit
Spirit of the Sea
Mermaid (filly)
Im Invincible
Sea my Spirit
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on July 08, 2009 at 12:38 AM
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Folks;
http://www.drf.com/news/article/105308.html
Comments/ Questions? Anyone?
I feel alone in this (maybe I am not), but I haven't a clue about this stuff. When the lawyers become involved, I always believe that the truth becomes lost in the noise (sorry vicstu).
I keep waiting for Mr. Crist to answer my question regarding his perception of drug use, and I don't expect to receive an answer, so I'll ask it here...do you (we) factor this into our handicapping strategy?
I am still unable to answer this question honestly myself, but this is really out of ignorance, and as much as I hate to say it, the mirror is only about 15 feet from where I sit. I am not sure that I want to go there.
I have some thinking to do, but would appreciate reading the thoughts of other like-minded people.
Good night all.
Posted by: Van Savant on July 08, 2009 at 01:03 AM
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James Mc.,
Thank you for that post. Presious Passion is just doing what we've seen many times before. When a horse has talent, is sound, and is trained with one thing in mind, and that is to race, the horse will come into his or her own at the age of 4 or 5. Your example of Better Talk Now is spot on, but the greatest example in the last 30 years is John Henry.
Forego was an example for sure, but he lacked one factor in there.....soundness. His lacking that was part of what made his career so astounding. Kelso was another, but he got pretty good at 3....winning HOTY at 3 without competing in the Triple Crown....not sure he counts.
The common thread with these horses, including Presious Passion, is, of course, that they're gelded. The only older entire horses that we ever see in graded stakes these days are those with unfashionable pedigrees. Skip Away and Congaree are poster horses. Pleasantly Perfect probably is as well.
We have one running currently......7yo Einstein. He's gotten really good in his old age. But he's by Spend A Buck, for gawd's sake, and he is his dam's only runner to do anything at all. He's at least a 4-time GI winner, on turf and synthetic, and a GII winner on dirt, but anybody that thinks he will get mares of any quality when he goes to stud are fooling themselves
It's said that a horse reaches its prime at age 5. Historically, the geldings or less fashionably bred have proven that to be true.
It's such a shame that the really fashionably bred never have a chance to show what they could do as a 5yo.
It's something to think about.
Posted by:
Paseana
Posted by: Paseana on July 08, 2009 at 01:06 AM
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HG141
Lets try to get the first time lasix to get to the front.
$28 win 9
$2 Sup. 3,8,9/3,8,9/2,3,5,8,9/2,3,5,8,9 $72
Posted by: David W on July 08, 2009 at 03:47 AM
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Was saved today by the fact that Indiana Downs runs their cards with a little less time between races than some of the bigger tracks. I got the computer up and running just in time to see the minutes before post hit zero for race #5. With all the scratches, I was going to move the #8 up, but never really liked either #6 or #7. The timing mix up on my end saved me a few bucks in losing wagers.
Onward and upward.
Arlington Park, 7/8/2009
Race #1 – Field of only six, so I will have to pass. However, I am interested in how the #2 SEATTLE PSALM runs. Has a solid jockey/trainer combination and gets first time Lasix. Off the recent works, I expect to see improvement and she could be an attractive price in this short field.
Race #2 – Field of seven, but a $5K claimer so I will have to pass again. #2 SHEZADOUBLEAGENT is a horse for course at AP (5-2-1-2), but is 0-2 at the 7 furlong distance. The alternative to this short-price favorite might be #4 LUCKY WOMAN. The Calabrese/Canani runner drops and goes from one mile to seven furlongs. 3/1 on her might be a gift.
(I think I owe everyone a belated apology. A few weeks back, I think I confused Nick Hines with Nick Canani when talking about AP trainers. Sorry if I confused anybody.)
Race #3 – Another field of only seven runners, but me and my multiple personalities tied up the tight wad Self #2 because there is a P6 carryover of $6K (huge by AP standards). We will play a “super caveman minnow” ticket and hope to get lucky by hitting 4/6 or 5/6. Unless #3 WIND ON THE HILL just runs them all off their feet, I think #7 SOUTHERN VISION gets a perfect trip second back off his short layoff.
Race #4 (4 ½ F, 2 yo. F, MC $40K)
#1 CRANBERRY CREAM – Must respect her connections and sports one good work on 6/20; but may have to let her beat me in the win spot
#2 CHANTILLY NAYLA – Another with good connections; sire wins at a good %; moderate works
#3 SAINT CONGA – Wins the breeding award out of this bunch; works not flashy, but solid
#4 CAT BELLS – Hamilton chooses this one over the one on the outside; her debut may look better than it should, she closed into a huge lead established by a monster runner; works are solid
#5 OUTRAGEOUS – Play against for me based on the dirt to AW move and no AP works
#6 OHIO STAR – Interested by Razo in the irons and the sire (Pioneering); some good works at TP
#7 CROSSWISE – Some things to like here (2nd in last, stays at same level), but am scared off by her trainer’s 0-22 record at the meet
#8 AMEN HALLELUJAH – I have been one of the biggest critics of Asmussen at AP, but I may have to eat my words here; all signs point to improvement second time out and you get Karlsson in the irons (one of two jockeys Asmussen has won with at AP this year); maybe it was not Hamilton’s choice to go with the #4
A wide open race, but #8 and #3 get my early votes.
Race #5 – Another field of seven runners, but I have to pick one for my “super caveman minnow” P6 ticket. I was originally going to go with #3 THE FOUNDRY, always a hard trier. Then I settled on #6 GOOD TO GREAT despite his trainers 0-23 record at the meet. I thought his short break was pointing at a big effort. But, I dropped him when I saw he was a $250K purchase running for $10K. Then it was back to #3 based on the probable pace/running styles. But, the #3 just does not seem able to win. So, it was on to #4 PURPLE PRIZE based on his last two efforts. Now I am thoroughly confused. If I can find out if #6 has been gelded since his last start, I think he has to be the choice. If that information is not available, I will be staying with the favorite #4.
Race #6 (1 1/16 M Turf, 3 & up F/M, ALW $31.5K)
#1 SAXBY- Lone turf effort was disappointing
#2 DEBUT DEB – Ambitious spot for a 2-32 horse, but the field is not that strong; part of a trio that scratched out of a race on Sunday this; maybe turf is the key, but I will pass in this spot
#3 LOSE NONE – Turf breeding, at least on the sire’s side and has not been totally disgraced in listed stakes action; worth a look first on the turf
#4 LIPSTICK LADY – Junior off for Jara; always seems to be running at the end, but never close enough to win (especially at AP)
#5 DAISEY MCDAISEY – Not sure how she qualified on the conditions; 7 consecutive ITM finishes; past level (less than $10K claiming races) not that encouraging, but fits with this field
#6 WILDWOOD DOMAIN – Part of the “scratch” trio from Sunday; often scratches before she runs; appears overmatched based on her lifetime record (7-1-0-0), but two back was competitive with the favorite
#7 BOUGAINVILLE – Was a vet scratch on 6/18; works since not impressive; but if she runs like she is capable of, she will be tough to deny
#8 MUSTANG MARTHA – Last of the “scratch” trio, and also a scratch (AE) on 5/24; Karlsson off is a concern
#9 DEL BONITA – Junior gets this one over #4; eligible to improve and is a 3 yo taking on a few elders
This race seems like #7 BOUGAINVILLE’s to either win or lose; will likely construct some exotic plays also using the #3, #5, #6, and #9.
Race #7 – An evenly matched field of six and I think I am going to go with #3 LIL CARMELITA. Moves from a route to a one turn mile. Was on the lead in her last, a change in styles. Should be able to either contest the pace or just sit back and wait to pounce.
Race #8 (5 F Turf, 3 & up F/M, MDN $38.08K)
#1 BULLY – Indiana shipper in deep
#1A JUMPIN AIRE – Not much to go on
#2 GILDED TREASURE – Do you get the Janks who is 60% off the claim or the Janks who has one win since May?
#3 HOLD’EM SLEW – Comes in off a significant layoff
#4 OPEN AND CLOSED – Jockey and trainer are 50% ITM
#5 ALEGRE BREEZE – 1st turf
#6 SHE’S SALTY TOO – 0-8 and willing to try anything
#7 PRETENDICA – A FTS worth a flyer in a less than inspiring bunch
#8 SLEETCALLING – Runs the race she ran two back and she wins easy; but can she do it?
#9 FIFE’s FEVER – 2nd Janks; should get a better trip from this post
A tough way to end the card. Janks seems to hold the two best cards. Of her two, I prefer the #9 and think she will get a better trip this time.
I will try to post some actual plays after the changes/scratches are announced. For now, here is my “super caveman minnow” P6 ticket:
AP Race #3 P6 - #3 / #3, #8 / #4 / #7 / #3 / #9
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Tony K, Stephen Taylor, and other Chicago-area Formbloggers,
Got the clearance for the full AP experience on Saturday. I am planning to attend the Breakfast at Arlington event in the morning. I am not sure if they will make us leave and re-enter the park before the gates actually open, but in any case I will park myself near the Starting Gate Theatre on the second floor. Tony, I will let you know where I am at exactly closer to 11:30. S. Taylor, and anybody else who might be interested, feel free to join us if you can.
Midwest Ed
Posted by: Midwest Ed on July 08, 2009 at 06:02 AM
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Dan, will you give us some horses who have recently been given weight over 126 lbs. for a race like Zenyatta was in the Vanity or like Curlin in the '08 Stephen Foster. I don't know where else to go to find this info.
Posted by: Captain Bodgit on July 08, 2009 at 07:33 AM
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Wow, Dan, thanks for taking the time to get all of the capsules about Urban Sea's offspring--she really was a fantastic mare.
Posted by: smash on July 08, 2009 at 08:39 AM
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Van Savant,
There are probably posters with much more expertise in this matter, but for what it's worth, here are my thoughts and what perplexes me about this article.
First, Asmussen is a known cheater. No pity here.
Second, no horse should have lidocaine in it's system. It's flat out dangerous to the horse, the jockeys and the other horses in the race for pain masking to be present in a horse's system. Not to mention the horror of seeing a breakdown. In the show world, we couldn't even compete on Bute! We sure weren't running at 40mph over hard dirt tracks, either!
Third,what is the withdrawl time for lidocaine? No horse on track should have this in it's system, but did it come off the farm? I have no problem with injured horses on a layoff getting therapeutic drugs, but not on track. If they need it, they shouldn't be running!
Fourth, what potential contaminants can get into the horses' environment to trigger a false positive? Also, at what level?
Fifth, why would Bill Mott be a character witness and how did he get a positive for this?
One suggestion on the Crist Blog is that there should be track vets who control all meds and that each horse has a med history that travels with it. Of course when it comes to cheating where there is a will, there is way.....
To answer your question, I do factor in cheating when handicapping. I hate when I do it, but that's the way it is......
Posted by: turnbackthealarm on July 08, 2009 at 08:54 AM
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No breakfast for me Saturday (Bishop's Creek is running in the 2nd on Saturday and depending upon how many races I decide to stay for, doubt I'll want to do an all day thing again)but will definitly be there for the contest-can't remember a contest day where there were actually this many good races.
As for today there's a 17.5K carryover in the high 5 (that 8th mdn sprint) Didn't buy the form for one race so used brisnet and I'm actually intrigued by 1-Bully, the Martin Indiana invador-this horse will be a HUGE price, and using the bris turf and distance numbers this might be what this girl has been waiting for? At upwards of 20/1 I'm willing to find out and I get a firster with decent works as a bonus.-I did like the 2 Gilded Treasure a little more than the 9-Fifes Fever but I used the Janks horses 2/3-Janks seldom claims horses, much prefering to either breed them herselves or buy at sales, so the fact that she chose to claim this one should really make everyone pause and take notice-Fifes Fever didn't have the best of trips apparently last but that outside post is a major concern for me at this distance. Gonna be tough for Wade to work out a trip from there but the horse should give an improved accounting of hereself-8-Sleet Calling was the prime 2nd and the cutback in distance is a key for me-turf is obviously a question mark. 4-Open and closed has 2 decent poly starts and this one could actually enjoy the grass-Also used 3-Hold 'Em Slew but only in the 5th spot-0 for 6 with a 2nd sprinting on grass and will be overbet-still may not take a whole lot of talent to finish 5th!
Posted by: Stephen L Taylor on July 08, 2009 at 09:09 AM
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oops, meant that Bishop's Creek is running in the 2nd on Friday, and that leads me to my soapbox! Many people are already calling for a ban on all drugs, but maybe after this you may reconsider: Bishop's Creek was run without lasix despite several running lines that screamed BLED (the jock on the horse the race we claimed him out of was sure he bled) but had an owner who was anti-lasix. To me, if this horse is indeed frequently bleeding during his races, denying him lasix is CRUEL TO THE ANIMAL! We put him on Lasix last race and he was so full of himself that he sprinted out to the lead (and didn't last unfortunatly-he was in for 25) We're hoping that it isn't the case but are afraid that the damage to his lungs caused by the repeated bleeding has harmed his lungs to the point that he won't ever fully recover. I'd almost like to see the opposite-if a horse bleeds during a race he would be REQUIRED to run on lasix his next race (or sit on the sidelines for 6 months) While I'm not for steroids, and think that medicines that mask severe pain should be cause for a SEVERE penalty for the trainer, this is something that absolutly needs to be allowed in horse racing. Unfortunatly the predisposition to bleed is being bred into today's horses and it's too late to turn back the clock. (However, for the sake of the handicapper, I found out something I didn't know until recently-not all doses are the same-5 (forgot the measurement) is standard but anywhere between 3 and 10 is allowable, so I'd really like to see the dosage given published in the past performances-There is no such thing as too much information and handicappers could use it or ignore it as they see fit.
Posted by: Stephen L Taylor on July 08, 2009 at 09:18 AM
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I don't see why certain trainers in this country gripe about weight, considering that a)In most other countries Group 1 horses routinely carry 130+ pounds and b) Steeplechasers in this country as well as in Europe almost always carry upwards of 150 pounds. Back in the 80s Flatterer won the Breeder's Cup Steeplechase (run as a handicap) with an astonishing 176 pounds. Clearly, weight doesn't affect horses nearly as much as trainers (and bettors, for that matter) think.
Posted by: Emily on July 08, 2009 at 09:34 AM
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Race of the day:
Chantal & Hello Maggie May!
Posted by: CHAAZZ on July 08, 2009 at 09:55 AM
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TBTA,
All free...
I always start with pedigreequery.com. Although I often find mistakes with race records (and occasionally with names), it has an enormous amount of information at one site. Then I start Googling (I found some great articles online on Urban Sea last evening just by searching Google), for English horses check Racing Post (or for Valedictory, check French racing websites) and fill in the blanks.
SRVegas,
Invincible Sea?
HG141 "ILS SONT PARTIS!"
(Pending Scratches)
FIELD:
#1 It's a Echo Rumor: great trainer name (Curley Zenon), had best Beyer last out then 5 week layoff with no works? off.
#2 Jestic Light: bump up to msw after three ITM finishes in the mc ranks, all-in-the-family jockey/trainer duo, also off a 6 week layoff without works? off.
#3 Alert Alert: seems primed to break her maiden, trainer is dad of Carolina Panthers QB, 2nd in last to next-out allowance winner. include.
#4 Pawpaw Bobbys Baby: closer, good jockey/trainer combo, layoff to layoff? include.
#5 Carmel Doll: HB won $100K, FTS, bullet 5f work 2 back. off.
#6 Quick Hit: another mc-to-msw with a layoff and no works, decent 1stout effort. off.
#7 Lady Regent: speed-fade 1st out with bullet between races, very live. Key.
#8 Maxincomefree: just missed two back with a winning Beyer. include.
#9 Mary's Deal: 1st-time Lasix, bid/fade twice, owner/trainer one-horse stable. include
WAGER:
If I was playing multi-race wagers, I'd use #7 as an 'A', #3,9 as 'B's and #4,8 as 'C's. Since it is HandiGambling, I'll Key #7.
$20WP #7 = $40
$10EX #7/3,4,8,9 = $40
$5EX #3,4,8,9/7 = $20
$100 TOTAL
Good luck to all HandiGamblers!!
Posted by: Alan on July 08, 2009 at 10:03 AM
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BTW, TRIVIA QUESTION (hopefully not mentioned here recently):
Driving Snow, the winner of yesterday's ROTD at Indiana Downs, has a unique career accomplishment - what is it??
Posted by: Alan on July 08, 2009 at 10:16 AM
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Van Savant, in response to your question, has medication use by trainers affected my handicapping?
Yes, in a bad way. I’ve lost money betting with the cheaters, and I’ve lost money betting against the cheaters. Subconciously, I root against every Dutrow, Wolfson, Ziadie, Sadler, O’Neill, and Mullins horse out there, and that has corrupted my analysis because I am looking for reasons to bet against their horses even in races when they have strong hands and I should be playing them.
Other than our HG exercise from Hollywood a few weeks ago, I have boycotted betting California racing the past few months. I went through a phase where I was including every Sadler and O’Neill horse in my wagers just because I felt I had to, and I was really crabby for including horses that my numbers couldn’t rationalize and was wagering more but not cashing any more. To torment myself further and stir up more anger, I review the California vet’s list every few days to see which horses are being permitted to run while still on the list and to count how many Mitchell or Canani horses are on “medication.” What absurdity to put a horse on the vet's list so that the trainer can avoid getting a positive!
And for more fun, read the stewards reports to laugh at the penalties. Hey John Sadler got fined $100 yet again for not reporting Abelard had been gelded; or Gary Stute was fined $500 for an overage of bute but was allowed to keep the $14000 purse (HOL ruling #9, 5/6/09); or Mike Smith was recently fined $300 for causing welts from his whipping (HOL ruling #36, 6/4/09). Is that gonna be on Jockeys? I’m getting fired up and digressing.
Okay, I’ll make this joke one more time: The only drug use I am interested in is “Beyer On Speed.” ROTFLMAO
Posted by: TejanoRun on July 08, 2009 at 10:17 AM
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HG141 :
$100 win #6 Quick Hit.
Raced decent first out/ trainer is competitive/ finished fairly well first out/ no published works since first out...doesn't
have to be a world beater to score here....Dave S
Posted by: Dave S on July 08, 2009 at 10:48 AM
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HG 141
My Contenders:
#5 Carmel Doll - Works indicate she can lay over this field at first asking. No way she goes off as high as 6-1 ML.
#9 Mary's Deal - First time lasix plus jockey change could be the formula to the winner's circle. Showed interest in her two prvious races
Wager:
$60 Win - #5
$20 EX. Box 5/9
Good luck to all
Posted by: Mike Romeo on July 08, 2009 at 11:10 AM
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handi gamble.. 3rd evangeline
downs 7/8..is as follows..
$ 4 tri key..#9 over 1,3,4,7,8/1,3,4,7,8 =$80
$20 win #9 =$20..
#9 picks up best jockey and
should win...
Posted by: derbyfritz on July 08, 2009 at 11:11 AM
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HG141
So, a field full of state-breds who have run almost exclusively in maiden competition against other state-breds.
I'm going to key the first-timer, #5 Carmel Doll. I like the 5F bullet work two back, and the more recent 3F work (bested by only one) suggests she'll be sent out in front of this bunch. I think she'll hold them off.
Underneath, I see three with potential.
Alert Alert(#3)-finished second-best to a next-out winner in her last try.
Maxincomefree(#8)-been close last two times against similar company.
Mary's Deal(#9)- put in decent efforts in her two tries, and gets Lasix this time.
Bet:
$60 Exacta 5-3
$20 Exacta 5/8,9
Posted by: baltimore_brian on July 08, 2009 at 11:32 AM
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HG 141
EVG 3RD (7:10)
6 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3, 4 and 5 Year Olds Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $33,000
1 - It's a Echo Rumor (15-1). Big Beyer last out, but did get beat the 8 horse that day. Like all of these, seems to have at least a small chance here.
2 - Jestic Light (10-1). I don’t like, but hard to argue with someone who does based on the two places and two shows in only six total starts.
3 - Alert Alert (4-1). Has had many chances and ran well enough in a few to merit some consideration. Just not my choice.
4 - Pawpaw Bobbys Baby (8-1). Not totally embarrassed at FG, has some time off and will likely improve. Seems to have a good chance at pretty decent odds.
5 - Carmel Doll (6-1). Firster has some decent works, but goes for only 7% first time out trainer. Likely will need one.
6 - Quick Hit (8-1). No works since last race nearly a month and half ago, normally would be a complete throw out. However, trainer angle is intriguing as there are positive ROI in every category listed. May out run her odds with these connections.
7 - Lady Regent (8-1). Always like horses second time out and this can improve off that first effort. Tough run from the 11 hole last out. May show speed today.
8 – Maxincomefree (9-2). Seems to have the best of the established form, has decent early speed to get good postion.
9 - Mary's Deal (3-1). Not sure why this one in the morning line favorite, seems to me that many are just as good. Ran OK last time, but not my top choice.
The Wager
$100 EX 4/8 (based on Cayman01 comments)
Posted by: Molesap on July 08, 2009 at 11:50 AM
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HG 141,
Not a lot of time spent on this one. work calls. I'll take a stab with the first timer, and mix her with the chandelier.
$30 WP 5
$20 EX BOX 5,8
The 8 always seems to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory but does show up every race. trainer of 5 has solid numbers and has to break out at some point.Works are good, but I don't know how accurate works are at EVG.
Posted by: cayman01 on July 08, 2009 at 11:58 AM
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Van Savant,
I agree with TejanoRun. When I handicap a race, especially with a Dutrow trained horse, I have a difficult time excluding that horse based upon my handicapping. It proves my bias against this trainer that I can not seem to avoid going back to Big Brown. Tinky and BlueHorseshoe may disagree but I firmly believe BB performance in last years Belmont was caused to a large extent of the horse being off the steroids for several weeks.
BigEasyBigChok
Posted by: BigEasyBigChok on July 08, 2009 at 12:01 PM
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Stephen Taylor,
Although I agree to run a horse who bleeds horribly without Lasix is cruel, I think horses who bleed horribly should either be gelded or in the case of females, have their papers marked as unsuitable for breeding. Then I could make a case for racing on Lasix. But it still leaves it available as a masking agent for those allowed to run with it.
Alan,
Thanks!
Posted by: turnbackthealarm on July 08, 2009 at 12:10 PM
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Slew,
LOL! If only it was that easy.
HG141:
In this race, I found the ideal horse for me. #7 LADY REGENT has several things going for her:
She is a 3-year-old making her second start. She has a decent trainer with a fairly good success rate for second starts (13%). He is apparently putting on his go-to rider, G Melancon - 21% , who is riding a good 19% winners.
She had the 11 post in her first start on 6/6, and has two nice works since, including a bullet work on 6/30. She showed some speed from the 11 post, but was forced wide and weakened in her first race. However, she still managed to outfinish over half the field. I'm going to give her a chance to improve second out.
#8 Maxincomefree has run fairly well in her last two and did earn the highest Beyer (60) in the field two races back.
So, my bet is $80 win #7
$20 Exacta 7/8
Good luck everyone!
Annie
Posted by: Annie on July 08, 2009 at 12:15 PM
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SR Vegas,
SEA SPIRIT
Annie
Posted by: Annie on July 08, 2009 at 12:26 PM
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TonyKelso, good point, I suspect you are correct. She sure looks like a million bucks, a physical transformation that occurred around the time she shifted her tack to Belmont. She came into her own in a big way, and she's got abeautiful way of going. She's probably the ideal turf sprinter (5 panels), if that's the style (speed) they continue to perpetuate.
***
Speaking of perpetuating, I wanted to apologize for my use of the term "nut job", it was in bad taste, even if the context was self-effacing.
Sorry about that. I just gave the what for to JH accross the street for using a more commonly accepted term (in a completely different context), and while I don't think the uses are comparable (because of the context), I'm not going to splt hairs because in the end the term I used (unlike the one JH used) is a vile one that perpetuates ignorance, one that I won't use again (or anything of a similar nature, hopefully).
Just self-policing.
O/U
Posted by: slewofdamascus on July 08, 2009 at 12:27 PM
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HG 141
Tough looking race with not a lot that stands out. So I will look to the first timer, who is training well and contruct a wager around her.
$30 win 5
$10 Ex 5/8,9,6 - $30
$5 Ex 8,9/8,9,2 - $20 (Saver if 5 doesn't fire)
$2 Tri 5,8/5,8,9/5,8,9,2 - $16
$2 Ex 6/8,9 - $4 (to fill out the $100)
Posted by: Charlton on July 08, 2009 at 01:00 PM
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HG 141:
I like the layoff for the #2 horse. He has raced well of a rest in the past and I think he's facing a field that he has a chance to beat.
$100 to win on #2
Posted by: addc26 on July 08, 2009 at 01:17 PM
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First, here is what the Price and Probability method that I use has come up with for this race:
3rd EVD- 7/8/'09 -- 8/5-9-1/2/3
RF VL ML
1- 54 12 15
2- 55 10 10
3- 60 5 4
4- 48 20 8
5- C1 9/2 6
6- 47 20 8
7- 37 50 8
8- 72 8/5 9/2
9- 67 5/2 3
The method has what appears to be a clear winner of this race if the Value Line is correct: MAXINCOMEFREE (#8). While she does seem to struggle late at times, she could actually wind up on a clear lead early for the first time, and if so really becomes dangerous. CARMEL DOLL (#5) has a strong series of works for her debut and has a good value line for a firster. MARY'S DEAL (#9) is first time lasix after tiring to fourth last out. IT'S A ECHO RUNNER (#1) is the last of the value horses in here off a career effort last out. JESTIC LIGHT (#2) is a "mad pup" (10/10) who is moving up to maiden specials off two good local efforts. ALERT ALERT (#3) was second last out and is the other real threat in this.
The plays (subject to change up to post time at 8:10 PM ET):
$0.10 Superfecta 8/1-2-3-5-9 ($6)
$1 Superfecta 8/1-5-9 ($6)
$2 Trifecta 8/1-5-9 ($12)
$1 Trifecta 8/1-2-3-5-9/1-2-3-5-9 ($20)
$14 Exacta 8/1-2-3-9 ($56)
----------------------------------------
$100 Total
Posted by: Walt on July 08, 2009 at 01:26 PM
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Midwest Ed,
I've never been asked to leave after "Breakfast at Arlington" so that shouldn't be a problem. I'll try to stop by--looks like a great day of racing; looking forward to seeing Giant Oak in the American Derby.
Posted by: meadowlake59 on July 08, 2009 at 01:26 PM
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Emily:
It's really not the amount of weight carried (as you point out the scale of weights vary between countries), but THE SPREAD between the weights. Most of my experience with handicaps is in Aussie racing, and it is not uncommon for the top weight to give 5 pounds to the second rated horse, or up to 20 or 25 pounds to the lowest rated horse in the field. This can "really bring horses together," especially on a wet track.
Posted by: tonykelso on July 08, 2009 at 01:38 PM
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HG 141
$100 ex 5/8
Leggio first time starter with nice works.
Posted by: pippen0707 on July 08, 2009 at 01:48 PM
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Happy Wednesday to all..
Hate to talk about the drug situation and all. How come the Red Sox are 17 games above 500 and not 1 player is hitting over .300? Could it be that they are being tested all of the time and they are afraid to get caught? (Hello Manny the idiot). The juice is EVERYWHERE!!!!!
HG141 will be won by a big Tri or Super hit. Play the outside at EvD. LOL to all...
Have some nice picks today. I have $7,500 in the pot to play with until Sunday. I set the limit at $1500 per day for the 5 days. Pick 3's and Pick 4's are the way to go. I have been hot at Woodbine with a HOT jock in Chantal. I have hit some nice ticket's over the past month and have set some $ aside for the Saratoga run. I was alive last week to 4 runners in the 9th at Belmont when the new rule clicked in to pay out to all in the pick 4,and the pick 6. What does the public think about the new rule? Good or bad? I was happy. I had the 1,2,5,and 12. I could have lost. The rain washed out everything and we move on. Lol to all. We look to each other for help, picks,suggestions ,and just plain fun. Whackymacky OUT
Posted by: Whackymacky on July 08, 2009 at 01:57 PM
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All...
Arlington
Race 2
Pick 4
2 / 5,6,7 / 1,2,3 / 1,6
$18 x 10 times = $180
Race 2 #2 200WP
Posted by: Whackymacky on July 08, 2009 at 02:02 PM
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Seattle Psalm won easy in Race #1 at AP. Probably will be my only winner on the card.
The Super Minnow Caveman P6 Play for AP remains unchanged despite the rain and scratches. It is:
AP #3 $1 P6 - #7 / #3, #8 / #4 / #7 / #3 / #9
I am not sure if they will stay on the turf or not, so I am not going to “invest” too much. I also have an event this evening for work, so I will not be able to watch any of the races live. I seem to do better when I am able to follow the action live and get a feel for the track, watch the board/post parade, and have a chance to make last minute decisions.
So my other plays are:
AP #4 Ex Box - #3, #4, #8
AP #6 Super Box - #5, #6, #7, #9
AP #9 Ex PW - #2, #9 / #2, #7, #8, #9
AP #9 Super Box - #2, #7, #8, #9
Good luck to everyone today.
Midwest Ed
Posted by: Midwest Ed on July 08, 2009 at 02:19 PM
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HG 141
Lets see if I can cash a ticket. Its been a while.
Narrowed the field to 4 contenders.
#4: Coming from Fairgrounds,decent works, dry track.
#7: 2nd start. Stuck wide and faded 1st out. Jockey upgrade.
#8: Highest Beyer in field 2 back. should sit close to pace and be a factor.
#9: 1st Lasix and jockey upgrade. Has the trainers full attention!
The bet:
$10 ex pw 4,7/4,7,8,9
$10 ex. box 4-7
$4 ex. 8/4,7
$3 tri 4,7/4,7/8,9
Posted by: billg on July 08, 2009 at 02:21 PM
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Hey Dan,
I see MAIMONIDES has been working out. Does Baffert have him and when is he returning? Bob's done good since getting horses from Zayat.
Thanks
Posted by: tony on July 08, 2009 at 02:28 PM
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HG 141
#3- Lost by a length 2 out of the last 3 times ran and second last out to next time winner
#4- Dropping in class from Fair Grounds. Jockey/Trainer have a good history together.
#8- A second and third at the level the last two times. May have bounced last time out off career high beyer.
$15 Ex Box 3/4/8
$10 Win 3
Posted by: Strike The Gold on July 08, 2009 at 02:33 PM
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I saw this on Racing Post...
Drivng Snow makes winning return
By David Ashforth
USA: DRIVING SNOW, the winner of the only race Sea The Stars has lost, returned from a nine month absence to win the $200,000 Oliver Stakes at Indiana Downs on Tuesday night.
The Verglas colt, who started at 3.7-1, is now trained in the US by Darrin Miller who confirmed that Driving Snow will run next in the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington Park on
August 8.
Miguel Mena settled Driving Snow in midfield behind a strong pace and entered the fray turning into the home straight. Driving Snow soon forged ahead before cosily holding off the late challenge of Quite A Handful.
Miller said: "I was very pleased with that. When a horse has been off for as long as he had, you are never quite sure what will happen but he ran a fantastic race. The pace helped him, he put himself into the race and he won easily enough. This was a starting point. I think he will improve."
When trained by Kevin Prendergast in Ireland last year, Driving Snow won a valuable maiden race at the Curragh, beating Black Bear Island and Freemantle, with debutante Sea The Stars in fourth.
This season Sea The Stars has won the 2,000 Guineas, Derby and Coral-Eclipse, while Black Bear Island and Freemantle finished first and second in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York.
Posted by: tonykelso on July 08, 2009 at 02:39 PM
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Alan,
DRIVING SNOW is the only horse to have defeated SEA THE STARS. :) Read that in the RP today.
Posted by: Causeways37 on July 08, 2009 at 02:39 PM
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Arl
Race 5
#5 Kuna $100WP
Posted by: Whackymacky on July 08, 2009 at 02:51 PM
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To whomever had the link to the Kirk Ziade suspension a few weeks ago, just an FYI...
I sent the link to Ray Paulick a few weeks ago and now he has an article about Ziade on the PaulickReport.com. Paulick does good work, IMO. Maybe not as good as Dan, but good nonetheless
Posted by: g or g on July 08, 2009 at 02:54 PM
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All....
Monmouth
Pic 4
1,4,8,9 / 6,7 / 7 / 1,5,8,10,11,12
$48. x 5 = $240
Posted by: Whackymacky on July 08, 2009 at 03:01 PM
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HG141
Like the work of the first-timer #5. Like the #2 as well. Let's play around those two.
$2 TRI (2,5/2,4,5,6,8,9/2,4,6,8,9) ($72)
$28 EX (5/2) ($28)
GL ALL.
Posted by: Patrick S on July 08, 2009 at 03:25 PM
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Causeways37,
You're right! Congratulations!!
Driving Snow broke his maiden (his only other victory until yesterday) almost a year ago at Curragh in the Jebel Ali Stables EBF (C&G) Maiden against Sea the Stars, who finished 4th in his 1st start! BTW, in that 20 horse handicap, there were 6 next-out winners out of 18 starters.
Speaking of international racing, Goldikova rebounded from her recent loss to win the Grp1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket earlier today. She defeated Rainbow View (she came in 4th place), who after being undefeated as a 2yo, is now 4-0-0-1 this year! The 2nd and 3rd place finishers were Heaven Sent and Spacious, the top two finishers (in reverse order) last month in the Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Posted by: Alan on July 08, 2009 at 03:47 PM
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Midwest Ed...
If the #2 wins the 2nd at AP, I would be alive to the #1 and #6 in the pick 4. The #1 pays $971 and the #6 pays $2068. These are $1 payoffs. I had it in 4 10 x's. Steaming!!!!!. 8/5 onto 14-1 onto 18-1 onto this leg. I see that you liked the #7 in the second leg.
I am 2 legs home at Monmouth. let's make some $$$$$$$. OUT
Posted by: Whackymacky on July 08, 2009 at 03:53 PM
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HG 141
Trying to study this evenings Penn & WO cards, so not a lot of time for this one, but did glance at PP's last night. A lot of low % trainer and jocks, but it looks like a competive field. I'm leaning toward horses who have not had a lot of chances to disappoint. Down to Leggio's 1st timer and Sam Breaux's 2nd timer. While Leggio's low % is hardly a true indication of his ability 5 seconds and thirds from a limited # of starters, I'm going pick #7 Lady Regent, I like Breaux going with G Money in the irond for second time starter who has lic. to improve with 2 works, his last being a bullet, sincehis debut 32 days ago.
I will go with -
$80 win # 7
$10 Ex Bx 7-5
May come back later to tweak to include a tri & super if time permits.
Good luck to all.
Posted by: buffalo joe on July 08, 2009 at 03:54 PM
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handi gamble at evangeline.
looked at race as a complete outsider of evangeline and put together my morning line which is different from the actual ml, especially with my top pick.
1=5-2
2=10-1
3=4-1
4=8-1
5=6-1
6=8-1
7=8-1
8=9-2
9=3-1.
so here we go I like the #1 staying in spc weights for 50.00 win even though track ml was 15-1
2.00 tri box 1-3-4
2.00 ex. box 1-3-4
24.00 show # 1.
2.00 straight super 1-3-4-8
good luck to all.
Posted by: dale tillotson on July 08, 2009 at 03:56 PM
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HG 141:
I'm hoping the 3d race on June 6 will turn out to be a key race.
Like the 7 (Lady Regent) and the 9 (Mary's Deal) out of that race. I know the 3 finished in front of them last time but she's already had 9 chances, while the 7 and 9 have a right to improve.
Also like the two works for the 7 since the last race, and the positive jockey changes for both.
The only other one I can see is the 4 - may have been facing better at FG.
$30 wp 7
$10 Ex 7-9
$6 Ex 9-7
$2 ex bx 4-7-9
$2 tri bx 4-7-9.
Good luck all!!!
Posted by: CM on July 08, 2009 at 03:59 PM
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HG141
I will go with the firster since there doesn't seem to be a whole lot to beat with the rest. Works indicate she can get it done at first asking.
$50 win/place #5
Good luck to all !!!
Posted by: Dick W on July 08, 2009 at 04:05 PM
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ARL
Final leg of the Pick 4. #3 nailed the #1 at the line. Paid $1544.60 for a buck!! I would have jumped out of the window. Poor ride by the #1. Raced out to a big lead. No need for that. He should have won in hand. Moving on...
Knocked out at Monmouth by the 1/2 shot in a short field.
Who do you like today? OUT
Posted by: Whackymacky on July 08, 2009 at 04:06 PM
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All...
7th Belmont
#2 Mission Approved
400WP
Posted by: Whackymacky on July 08, 2009 at 04:10 PM
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To all just a couple of comments.
I have to comment that the overall tone of the blog has in recent weeks returned to a civil interchange of opinions, as opposed to the previous 2 or 3 months that I found myself much less willing to post on some very intresting matters. Sadly some very valuable contributers have either left or are posting less often and I do miss thier thoughts and hope those who have left will return, and others will continue to share their thoughts with us.
Also I like a horse tonight in the 2nd at Penn if it stays on the turf. #5 Saco River last raced 8 days ago at Philly Park and his trouble line is outrun and widest, I thought this horse was perfectly placed early and when it came time to give him his head the jock found himself pinned in and quickly runing up on a tiring horse that clogged up the inside of the course, he had to swing extremely wide an finished with good energy to be 3rd. I do not think that took a lot of him and is being sent back for his 3rd start in less than a month and 4th in 2009 by competent connections. It looks to me they are trying to take advantage of this lightly race horses condition and don't mind shipping to get the Win.
Anyone having any thoughts on this or any race at Penn or Woodbine, please post as I like to play both tracks and do like to play the rolling Picks at both tracks.
Thanks to all.
Posted by:
buffalo joe
Posted by: buffalo joe on July 08, 2009 at 04:37 PM
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Does anyone know if there is going to be a Road to the Breeders Cup fantasy game again this year?? Whenever I search for it I only find a site that says Unauthorized Access?? Any info out there???
Posted by: Stephanie on July 08, 2009 at 04:39 PM
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Handi l4l picks:
$1.00 super 5/3,8,9/3,4,8,9/all
$1.00 tri 3,8,9/5/all
$1.00 exacta box 1,2,6,7
$13 win 2
Posted by: Joe L on July 08, 2009 at 04:58 PM
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2 horse is improving for a good percentage winning trainer and jockey-- moves from 14 hole to inside-- gets job done
5 is the question mark-- firster with best works, likely to get lead and may not look back; trainer only 7% with firsters but 22% in mdn spec wts and positive ROI across the board-- odds would dictate how much I use...
$6 Tri 5/2/all $42
$6 Tri 2/5/all $42
$2 Ex 2/all $16
Posted by: Rick on July 08, 2009 at 05:25 PM
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HDG 141:
I also know next to nothing about EV, but in looking at the trainer stats, Arceneaux looks very impressive. Yes, Quick Hit steps up in class here, but 3 of the horses in here also raced in that same MC20000 (2 of which have since returned to race respectably in MSW ranks. Face 13 others in debut and ran ok after starting near the back. Not too concerned about layoff as stats seem to say trainer knows what he is doing. I also think board will indicate if she has a chance or not so I can't see getting the ML price if she is at all ready. Hoping the jump out of maiden claimer ranks is a positive (they don't want to lose her). I will key her on top in the exacta and hope it is enough to win if she comes in:
$20 EX PW: 6 / 2-3-5-7-8
Good luck to all,
Dale
Posted by: Dale on July 08, 2009 at 07:40 PM
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HG 141- Back to Back maiden contest races~"I Like!"-Borat
3rd@Evangeline:
$2ExactaBox & $2TriBox,(4-7-9)=$24
.50 Super Part/Wheel:
(4-7-9)(4-7-9)(all)(1-2-4-6-7-9)=$72
DimeSuper,(7)(all)(1-2-6)(1-2-6)=$3.60 &.40 for the teller..
Posted by: BombsawayBob Grant on July 08, 2009 at 07:53 PM
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Alan
Driving Snow..
Driving Snow is the only horse to have ever beaten the best in the world,
Sea The Stars
Is that your trivia answer to your question?
SR Vegas
Posted by: SR Vegas on July 08, 2009 at 08:10 PM
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HG 141
$1 tri
9/58/1345678
1345678/9/58
$1 super
9/58/3578/1345678
1345678/9/58/3578
$5 exacta
9/578
Posted by: tommytabasco on July 08, 2009 at 08:11 PM
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ARGHHHHHHHH!!!!
Second place again (by my preliminary calculations). I think I have 2 or 3 seconds in this contest at about 5 or 6 top 5 finishes and ZERO (as in zip, zilch, nada, nothing) wins.
As Slew would say: Onwards and upwards.
And the worst part is ZERO real dollars on this race as well!!!
Dale
Posted by: Dale on July 08, 2009 at 08:32 PM
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Arceneaux must never bet much at the windows or this horse could not have been almost 20/1.
Posted by: Dale on July 08, 2009 at 08:34 PM
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HG 141
After a quick scan.
Top 3 looks like the following:
3. Zan The Man $8 Ex pays = $1210.40
2. Dave S $100 WIN #6 = $2160.00
1. Dale $20 Ex 6-8 = $3026.00.
Not Official!!!!!!
Sweet picking.
Again not official.
Posted by: Whackymacky on July 08, 2009 at 08:40 PM
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sorry but what is a "Blue Hen" when it comes to horseracing? How does a horse become a blue hen? Who are some "blue hens"?
Posted by: Captain Bodgit on July 09, 2009 at 07:31 AM
Dan Illman is DRF.com's Handicapping Editor. He recently released DRF’s newest DVD 