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FormBlog | November 21, 2009

Saturday baby race, Advice, etc.

Dan
Any thoughts on Saturday's 6th race at Aqueduct (a baby race)?  Looks to me like a strong field of many well-meant firsters and a couple of second starters with a chance as well.  I'm trying to like the Hushion horse-#2, Sunrise Smarty because of the very strong connections and Hushion's white-hot streak.  But, the workouts are painfully slow, and I think the M/L of 8 to 1 is a dream.  Still, I'm very tempted.  Thank you in advance.
blackstone

The sixth race at Aqueduct on Saturday looks like a fun race on paper.  It's a maiden special weight for juveniles, and there isn't a ton of form on display. 

I'm not going to go too deep as it looks like a crapshoot, and virtually anything can happen.  I am interested in a pair of runners that may offer some price potential. 

Beckon (#11) has a strong turf pedigree.  The dam was a winner on grass in England at one mile, and she has already thrown Summertime Legacy, a Group 3 winner on turf at two in France going eight furlongs.  Whether this son of Pulpit will flourish going 5 1/2 furlongs in his career debut on the main track is another story, and Kiaran McLaughlin's go-to rider, Alan Garcia, winds up on Rick Violette's runner (#6 - Forward Harch).  Still, I'm intrigued by Beckon's last two workouts.  On November 8, he went 3/100's slower than Quay Lime Guy, a McLaughlin-trained juvenile that graduated in his second lifetime start on November 14 with a 74 Beyer Speed Figure.  On November 17, Beckon went 1/100th faster than McLaughlin's three-year-old Redding Colliery, a colt that just won an entry-level allowance race with an 86 Beyer.  Beckon draws the far outside in this short sprint, but may be worth a small play at 4-1 odds or greater. 

Iguazu (#4) figures to be one of the longer shots in the field (15-1 ML).  Trainer Billy Turner is only 1 for his last 28 with debut runners, but he has a history of sending out longshot juvenile debut winners in November at Aqueduct.  On 11/5/06, Turner's firster Play It True blew up the toteboard at 55-1, and 364 days later, it was Ocean Goddess making a winning debut for the barn at 28-1.  Over the last five year's Turner's juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight sprints at Aqueduct at 2-5 (40%) with a $34.40 ROI.  Iguazu's gate workout on November 4 matches up with Wirebuster, a four-year-old stablemate that finished second in a $10,000 'n2L' claimer on November 14 with a 76 Beyer. 

Other firsters worth watching are Monsignor (#9), and Make History (#1).  Five Aces (#5) may be the one to watch out of those that have already raced.

***

Dan,
To an aspiring journalist, and one who is particularly fond of horse racing and handicapping, what wisdom can you impart? I am somewhat of an exile among fellow writers on campus (in other words, I am one of only a handful of students who could tell you who Rachel Alexandra is) and I'm in need of some honest advice.  And as a self-proclaimed precocious handicapper, should I pursue handicapping further or am I in need of a lesson in humility?
Thanks,
TheVanGogh

When I first looked over your post, I flashed back to my days at Nova Southeastern University.  I was the Sports Editor for the Nova Knight, but was never very popular with the student-athletes. Instead of covering Lady Knights Volleyball, I wrote articles on the trials and travails of Holy Bull and Cigar.  When one has a readership in the double-digits, as I did, one could get away with that kind of stuff. 

After graduating, I was faced with a difficult decision.  Do I try to follow my passion and look for a job in the horse racing industry?  It seemed like a longshot.  The job market in racing was as thin in 1997 as it is today.  I had a firm offer for a very low-paying internship at Madison Square Garden (with the promise of advancement), as well as an interview for an entry-level position at Sports Eye, a harness racing publication on Long Island. 

On paper, it was a no-brainer.  Take the MSG job, and with some hard work, who knows?  Perhaps, I coulda been the voice of Knicks broadcasts. 

I couldn't do it. 

I loved horse racing too much.  I loved it ever since my father and great-uncle took me to Belmont when I was a four-year-old, and I loved it when I worked backbreaking hours on the backstretch at Yonkers Raceway when I was a teenager. 

If you have a passion, then you owe it to yourself to follow that passion even if it means running into a dead-end. 

I realize that I've been very fortunate.  It seems that each time a door closed, another one opened right up.  I understand that it's not like that for everyone.  
 
What the powers that be in this business fail to understand is that they need to encourage people to join the good fight.  Racing needs enthusiastic, energetic people with a passion for all aspects of the game.  People like you.

My advice to you is to check out this link on the Blood-Horse website:

http://source.bloodhorse.com/bloodhorse/bh_source_online.asp

It's a directory to just about every micro-field in the business.  If journalism or handicapping doesn't work out, what about horse appraisal?  Bloodstock agent?  How about working for one of the big sales companies?  Find one or 20 things that you're interested in, and start sending out those resumes. 

Then, head on over to this link:

http://drf.com/racing_links/links_tracks.html

This will take you to the websites of the racetracks themselves.  Each one should have some employment opportunities.  My advice would be to look for internships at the major venues like Churchill Downs or their affiliates. 

I must stress that if you are to accept this undertaking, be prepared for a long haul.  It's very difficult to get one's foot in the door.  The horse racing industry is a tough nut to crack.  There aren't many opportunities for aspiring handicappers or writers.  Newspapers and magazines are quickly becoming obsolete as the internet age continues to progress.  On-track attendance is down.  Will there be a need for paddock analysts in the far future if no one is there to hear them?

If you really, really love the game, I'd urge you to block out the Reaper that has threatened to put the sickle to the sport for the last 35 years.   Give it a look.  It can't hurt. 

And if you ever need any more advice, your friends at FormBlog are here for you.

***

Dan:  I am giving a mini-seminar and basic handicapping lesson to a group on 12/5.  I was wondering if you could direct me to some audiovisual aids, handouts, or other helpful materials that will help make the class better.  -Steve-

For past performance hand-outs, you could try downloading and printing an old HandiGambling race from one of the prior blogs. 

Head on over to the following link for a detailed explanation on how to read the past performances:

http://drf.com/flash/drf_pp_tutorial.html

To break down the basics of handicapping and wagering, try this link:

http://drf.com/row/fan_ed/DRFFanEd.pdf

Hope this helps.

***

BTW, did Frankel have a protoge? I know Dutrow was closest to him these last couple of years...
vicstu

Tony Dutrow and Chad Brown are among the Dutrow assistants that have found success since venturing out on their own.

***

Dan, any way we can get a "comments" section after drf.com articles?  It would be fun to see what people thought.
Captain Bodgit

The idea has been tossed around in recent meetings.  Perhaps it'll happen next year.

***

Dan
Do you know how I can get the replays from Woodbine?  I don't have a computer betting account, and for complicated reasons I am seldom at the Satellite during the races, so I can't get them in either of those two forums.  I do subscribe to racereplays.com, but for some reason(probably money) they don't carry Woodbine. I would like to play the track because of the large fields and purses, but I don't like to play anything unless I can see the replays. Thank you.
blackstone

Try calracing.com. 
Race replays are available from Woodbine.  Type in the name of a runner, and the replay should pop right up.

***

 Not sure what kind of entries we'll get for next Wednesday. Do we want to move HG to Saturday for next week?
cayman01

Congrats to Bear for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling contest.  Bear gets to select next week's HandiGambling race, but I'd like to suggest one of the graded stakes races for Saturday.  Laura will be holding a chat on her site, and we could discuss the race as one of the topics.  Anyway, good job to all that cashed, and it's up to Bear to select our next race.

Will be back on Tuesday for the weekend recap.

Take care,

Dan

Posted by dan_illman on November 21, 2009 | Permalink

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Comments

Repost from last page (sorry Dan);

blackstone, Mike A., Mickey, Keith L., All;

Churchill Downs - 11/21/09

Here are a few spot plays for this card, with an analysis for race #9 (The Cardinal Handicap, Grade III):

Race #7 – Harlan’s Princess, Jackpot Jackie, Heaven’s Grace, Pirate Queen
Race #8 – Grand Traverse, Custom for Carlos, Golden Country, Due Date
Race #9 – Tizfiz, Acoma, My Baby Baby, Lemon Chiffon
Race #10 - Flavor, Posse Cat, Country Day, B Z Warrior

The Cardinal Handicap, Grade III

I am a sucker for angles. I love them. I am a big sucker for my favorite angle, that being the filly or mare that raced against males last time and returns next time out to race against fillies and mares. TIZFIZ (#2) not only fits that bill, but she does so with proven abilities and Graded Stakes success on the turf. She is a big play for me this weekend. ACOMA (#3) is another that has demonstrated class. She is also 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs on this course. MY BABY BABY (#7) closed nicely in her last at Keeneland on the polytrack, and Trainer McPeek is deft at synth-to-turf transitions. LEMON CHIFFON (#9) is another nice closing-type. She is coming east from California after some sharp workouts, and looks poised to contend.

I hope that everyone finds some success playing the races this weekend, and please remember to be safe out there! ☺

Posted by: Van Savant on November 21, 2009 at 12:51 AM

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tbta,

glad u had a good time in sin city.i take it, the hostest with the mostest is sr vegas?never been there myself,but i guess there is a first time 4 every thing.some 1 posted about diane crump,maybe u or laura,but whoever,he's hoping u have a speedy recoverly diane.woman like her r the so-called pioneers with the arrows in the back.

GL

Posted by: Virgin Queen on November 21, 2009 at 12:59 AM

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Show me the Money...Showvivor...

GO ANNIE GO!!! Well Done!

------------------------

Calvin

Thank you for the heads up on the 2 yo PGH of Winslow Homer.
..Yep! He's now on my Horse Watch!!

--------------------------

And to All:

...just a quick note, I had a long and lovely lunch with Lauren Stich this week.
She especially wanted me to pass along a Hello to all The Blue Thong Gals, and guys. She is always so happy and appreciates it when someone thinks about her.
All is well in her neck of the woods and she looks Marvelous!!! It was fun to catch up!

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on November 21, 2009 at 01:14 AM

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Dan,
Let me first emphasize that I mean this in the least sappy and cliche way possible... that was exactly what I needed to hear.

I also feel the need to mention the 7th race at Churchill Downs tomorrow. In a field comprised of 9 mediocre fillies I absolutely refuse to bet an equally unimpressive 2-1 favorite who has raced exclusively on synthetics. Jackpot Joanie will be included in my multi-race wagers (out of respect for Asmussen), but I can't in good conscience incorporate her in my singles.

Aside from my distaste for the favorite, I feel strongly about another filly; the #3 Heaven's Grace.

Heaven's Grace, like the rest of the field, has done nothing so far on the track to merit attention. However, I like two angles in particular about her. She is a full sister to This One's For Phil (who showed glimpses of precocity) and her trainer is hitting 23% with 2nd time starters. This second stat is particularly impressive because Eric Reed wins at a 12% clip with 2yo's. What this means: If Heaven's Grace is going to win a race for him at 2, it will more than likely be this one.

With a limited budget and a desperate need for beer money (I'm in college for God's sake) I'll only be playing the late pick 4 at Churchill tomorrow. So I was especially appreciative of reading your angle- Van Savant- and would love to hear what others have to say.

Posted by: TheVanGogh on November 21, 2009 at 03:18 AM

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Dan,

Quick note, I agree about the 6th @ Aqu. I checked my notebooks and Turner does put them over late in the year. I know you didn't actually say it, in an earlier post I did, but I get the feeling you'll be watching the result of that race in earnest also. Can't put my finger on it, but something tells me some good ones are coming out of that race. Mike A

Posted by: Mike A on November 21, 2009 at 08:06 AM

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OK guy's it appears Van Savant and I are in almost total agreement on the 8th and 9th @ CD. Close in the 10th also.

Blackstone, Van Savant.

First Blackstone, While I do see why you like YGWG. and it made me look long and hard, it isn't just the fact I think she's a cut below these, I also think she will not get the best of trips from the one hole.

Van Savant,
Sometimes I'm my own worst enemy when I see a horse from CA, running elsewhere. It takes me twice as long to scrutinize them because I fear it's that bias I have against them and not smart handicapping that is "telling" me what to look for. Like YGWG, I see Lemon Chiffon with much to do late, though at 1 1/8m the jock should be able to get the trip. My fear here is she will be closing late, many in here aren't true distance types, she will have to negotiate around some of those that are spinning their wheels at the head of the lane and again between the 1/8 and the 1/16th poles. I'm thinking it hurts her chances. She seems the type that needs things to go her way. What's your take on it? Mike A

Posted by: Mike A on November 21, 2009 at 08:21 AM

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Mickey,

Get on the stick son, 8 or 9 hours to post. LOL!

Oh by the way, the house is sold. Be home soon enough. Mike A

Posted by: Mike A on November 21, 2009 at 08:22 AM

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Wish I always had the time to stay on top of this site because it is one of the best blogs out there.

A mention was made of Laura's "chat." When does this usually take place and where?

Bonnie Blue Eyes looks like a good thing in the last a HOL today. Horses showing speed at SA are having an easier holding on at the Track of Lakes and Flowers.

Posted by: Alfredo on November 21, 2009 at 08:38 AM

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Dan
1.Thank you for the tip on Woodbine-I'm very excited about using it. Now I'll know what Whackey is talking about.
2.Many thanks for the analysis of Aqueduct's 6th race. Between you, Alan, and Mike A, sounds like I'll go pretty deep in the race. That's ok, I'm only playing five races today, so deep is good. Where do you get all this knowledge? I'm thinking you have a bigger brain than the rest of us-at least me for sure.
Van Savant
Really nice job on CD-I trust your judgement a lot. In the 8th I'm beginning to like Grand Traverse too (the Keeneland-CD angle may be in play)-anyway he's in my pocket now . In the feature you and Mike A are all over Tizfiz-good advice from both of you-she's in the pocket too(I'm playing on house money so I have deep pockets).
Mickey
Email is fine with me-so you guys know, though, I'm leaving for the day at 8:30 am (11:30 am East Coast time)to transport elderly parents to various places, including a certain Satellite. Anything we all want to do is great with me. It'll be fun.
Annie
I know I said it last night-knock em dead! I'm sure you'll look at Steve T's picks on Laura's site-$114 winner-wow, Steve T!!!

Posted by: blackstone on November 21, 2009 at 08:58 AM

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don't overlook You Go West Girl in the Cardinal

Posted by: Captain Bodgit on November 21, 2009 at 09:06 AM

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I thought I would do an OLA Tribute to our So Cal Guru, Mr. Steve T.

Place Pick 9 at Hollywood Park for Sat.:

Steve believes in playing the horses with confidence. He starts the day with the attitude, "LUCKS MINE today!" Then he begins to weave THAT OL'BLACKMAGIC that he weaves so well.

Be forewarned, he doesn't STEP SOFTLY. Some of his wagers would TERRIFY the average horseplayer. But, he will tell you to DO WHAT U DARE and SO BEHOLD, you will find yourself cashing tickets right and left.

Steve is often ON FIRE. He is a true AMERICAN LION of the horseplaying set. Follow along and you, too, can experience that TASTE OF JOY of cashing a ticket on a 55-1 shot. :)

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 09:15 AM

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Woodbine Replays
Boy, just tried the calracing.com site for the Woodbine replays. It worked like a charm. Oh happy days! I could have sat at the PC for a million years and never would have found it. Thank you so much, Dan. Tomorrow (Sunday)-I'll attack the card.

Posted by: blackstone on November 21, 2009 at 09:42 AM

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Mickey,

I'm good for this weekend, but thank you for the kind offer.

Good luck today!

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 09:46 AM

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Wow, look who's running in the 3rd at Hollywood Park on Sunday. MAKE MUSIC FOR ME has competed well in three graded stakes and now in a Md. Now if I can only stay in Show Me The Money TODAY!

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 09:48 AM

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Hey, JOHN C & JOHN N,

If you're out there, HANDSOME JOHN is running in the first at HOL today. :)

Mike A,

And you've got MIKESWAYORTHEHIWAY in the second.

Tencent,

Even one for you. A CLEVER TEN runs in the 4th.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 09:54 AM

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Aqueduct
Just looked at the 4th-like the good old days-full field with six AE's. Weak group, so will take a flyer on the #6-Whisked Away. Sixteen months off, well-rested (I hope). Levine strong with that, although turf not his best surface. Can't pass up 12 to 1.
Good luck to everyone today-I'm playing everyone that almost all mentioned, but prime bet will be the Carlos-You Go West Girl double at CD, with a triple to Warriors thrown in.

Posted by: blackstone on November 21, 2009 at 10:46 AM

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Big A
Whisked Away scratched from the 4th. In the 8th, I'll try Birdrun-improving three year old might be ready for this. Five horse field with the scratch, so a win bet only, but with a defensive one-way exacta from the chalk to Birdrun. I think the Bird beating Haynesfield is very doable.

Posted by: blackstone on November 21, 2009 at 11:34 AM

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Dan:

I know this might be "off" topic a bit...but is there any reason why my $7 DRF print version does not have any Churchill past performances? Now NO OFFENSE to anyone on here who supports the following tracks...BUT...we hardly ever blog about Philadelphia or Laurel (because outside of the occassional big race..there is nothing to talk about)..you could probably throw in a few otehrs as well..but to leave the track with 1 of the only 4 graded races for Saturday, out of print, I think is ridiculous.

Posted by: Mickey on November 21, 2009 at 11:44 AM

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Annie

...LOVED the Uncle Steve OLA!!

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on November 21, 2009 at 12:36 PM

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Dan,

How does the DRF choose who will be their public handicappers for each track? There is a guy named Rich Wroble who was added to the Brad Free southern Cal circuit at the beginning of this year. I don't usually pay attention to touts but Mr. Wroble proved his handicapping abilities many many times. His best bet (printed in bold) was almost never the favorite and would run bang up races with incredible consistency.

He was the only DRF tout I'd pay attention to, and suddenly I realize he's been replaced. He isn't doing any of the other tracks. How do you suggest someone like me to make my feelings known? Besides this post, of course.

Just as a reference - here are some of R. Wroble's best bets - just the ones that quickly come to mind.
Tapitsfly - BC Juv Fill Turf 1st 8-1
Internallyflawless - DM Oaks 1st 6-1
Premier Flyer- DM maiden 1st 7-1
Informed Decision- FM Sprint 1st 4-1

He is a talented handicapped and it would be a shame if he has been let go.

Posted by: Calibob on November 21, 2009 at 12:36 PM

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Saturday, Churchill 10th:

My notes say Warrior's Reward was pulled up lame and vanned off. He is back in 35 days with three works, one fast. Maybe he burned his heels in his first try on the polytrack.

8th Churchill: I give Godolphin Gray a chance at the win or to fill the exacta.

Posted by: Ron Zuercher on November 21, 2009 at 12:37 PM

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Everyone,
Steve T. has been picking winners left and right at Hollywood. Remember to check out his daily picks!

Alfredo,
The next handicapping chat will be on Friday, November 27 at 9:30 PM EST. We'll cover graded stakes races from around the country. If the handigambling race isn't a graded stakes, I'll be happy to include it.

Chat and Steve T.'s Hollywood picks can be found here: http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/

Dan,
Thanks for mentioning handicapping chat!

Anne,
Blue Thong Horse Alert - Lt. Anne in tomorrow's Moccasin Stakes at Hollywood!

Laura

Posted by: Laura on November 21, 2009 at 12:42 PM

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Go Annie:

Would like to see an Illman Form blogger take this one to the end. Stay conservative...you can always go for the top show money winner at the end!

Good luck this weekend.

Posted by: Keith L. on November 21, 2009 at 12:46 PM

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alfredo

You can find Laura's website and chat schedule at:

http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/

...join in the fun! And if you haven't see her site before, Enjoy !!

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on November 21, 2009 at 12:48 PM

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Don't like playing a 5 horse field at Aqueduct, just no value to be found there. The Churchill feature looks too tough for my liking..any of a half dozen can take it. A couple of nice races at Hollywood, and in the Prevue 7 Fourlong, I'm of a mind to take the 2nd choice Baffert horse (Machias)) to put in a Quinella with American Lion. I know Gomez chose the Indian Charlie horse, but I think Bejarano inherits the better sprinter here.
Up in Woodbine, I'm all over El Brujo. Win/Place. Onward and upward, hopefully!

Good luck all.

Posted by: Keith L. on November 21, 2009 at 12:55 PM

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Van Gogh,

First let me say I don't usually play maiden races, preferring to wait on them a bit. Though I will play maidens on the turf, at a distance.

That said, I saw the 7th at CD was a 2yr.old race on the main track at a mile. So I looked it over. Usually when I look at races like this I check back in my notes for trainer angles. I know the form lists the trainers percentages for different angles but they don't list them all. What I always call the stats within the stats.

Please understand I would defer to guy's like Van Savant in a race like this, they are more in "touch" with the nuances than I am, since my criteria can't be met by horses who haven't run much or at all. This is what I've come up with for that race, when you see who, you will understand why I defer to others. The three I like in that race are, in PP order...

Pirate Queen
Rendition
Naughty Bits.

As you can see the only horse I have at short odds is Pirate Queen. I'm going to look at it further and decide what to do. The two longshots are picked through my notes on both trainers and how they pick their spots. Good Luck, I'm going to go back over it again and see how to proceed.
Mike A

Posted by: Mike A on November 21, 2009 at 01:05 PM

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Mike A/Blackstone/Keith L:

Sorry so long....had a few errands this morning...and for the first time in awhile won't be playing Hollywood today (going out with the kids and wife to Star Wars)

Mike A:...congrats on the house...so when are we going to Aqu?

Ok..this is what I have:

CD- 7th race:

Not crazy about it..but do like that #4 Due Date has 4 sharp works leading to the race..has a little kick in him and think he will love the turn back to dirt

so Due Date
Grand Traverse
Wild L

are my selections....

8th race:

I respect Acoma..but never like playing horses off bad races (racing over the same surface...I'll give a pass turf/dirt/synthetic...but not same surface)....

I like Leamington again (I liked her in her last as well as a long shot if anyone remembered..but lost with the soft turf)...I feel with firm turf..the stalk and pounce method will work out just fine..depending on price in the pools..might even be a big play.

I feel using Long Approach is another "safe" bet as she will be right there with the trip....as well as Acoma.

Don't like YGWG..sorry...although love her here in NY...1 workout and a tougher field....too much for me.

I even did the 10th:

actually in a slight upset..I like #5 Escrow over WR (who will be under even money)...I'll even throw in Flavor.

Mike A:

what's your thought about Talk Therapy in the 4th at AQU?

will be also handicapping the 7/8/9 at AQU in a bit (just finalizing what I like)

Posted by: Mickey on November 21, 2009 at 01:18 PM

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Guys...my e-mail is easygoer73@aol.com

hoepfully this goes through and then we can work off the blog as well as e-mail.

Posted by: Mickey on November 21, 2009 at 01:20 PM

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Thanks for the heads-up, Annie!
We'll see whether Handsome John runs as good as he looks.
I've only been called "cute", which is totally emasculating, by the way.
grrrrrr.

Posted by: John C. on November 21, 2009 at 01:49 PM

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I'm leaning towards the Hollywood Prevue for my Show Me The Money horse today.

I don't know exactly why American Lion went West unless he doesn't want to run in the later dirt preps out East. Leparoux flew out to stay with him, which is a good sign. He hasn't raced or worked at HOL, which I would have preferred, but his 93 Beyer at Kee is tops in this field.

Then there is Indian Firewater. Baffert and Gomez, what can I say? He's been working bullets at HOL and had a $400K pricetag as a yearling.

I suppose Baffert's other entry, Macias, could keep American Lion honest and there is other speed in here too. Maybe Gomez and Indian Firewater can be there at the end. Anyway, I think I'm going to pick one of those two.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 01:53 PM

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Here is my quickie analysis for Churchill's late pick four:

Race 7: Oh, i wish, i wish i could go all. Just going to take a chance with the #3 (Trainer huge 2nd of the layoff), #4 RENDITION (back to dirt), #8 YELL (pedigree)

Race 8: I'm singling #6 DUE DATE. I think that 'Carlos' will bounce. There is ton of speed in this race. His best race is on Dirt. Trainer Turf/Dirt 30%.

Race 9: #2 TIZFIZ will sit the perfect trip behind the speed. #3 ACOMA might romp in here because A: this is not a mile and a quarter & B: Not soft turf.

Race 10: Not singling #2 WARRIOR'S REWARD. Going 5 deep in here. #2. #3, #5, #12 and #13.

tencentcielo

Posted by: tencentcielo on November 21, 2009 at 01:55 PM

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OK, I have to stop hemming and hawing and pick a horse before it's too late.

I know everyone and their uncle is picking American Lion, but I am going to do or die with Baffert and Gomez, and go with Indian Firewater.

.....

Garrett, sweetie, you know I think you are the best jockey in the country (now that Jerry Bailey is retired), and I could really use a nice run from Indian Firewater today. :)

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 02:27 PM

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7th at AQU:

5 minutes to go..not crazy about the race but in this type of fieid to geta #5 harlow's Court at 6-1 is interesting...so is #9 Codeword at 10-1!...so we will see.

Posted by: Mickey on November 21, 2009 at 03:12 PM

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Mickey,

I think Talk Therapy will run second, the magic crystal ball commands it. LOL!!!! sorry didn't see the post till the race was over. Mike A

Posted by: Mike A on November 21, 2009 at 03:32 PM

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The idea of my spot plays is to pick races where I believe a price horse has a better than average chance of running 1-2, or sometimes just second. So when I pick a race like that I do not expect to get beat by a longshot.

I looked at todays 7th from Aqu. I liked three horses but dropped one and bet an exacta box with the other two, MY MAN LARS and THOU SWELL. I was beaten by Codeword, with my two running second and third. I looked long and hard at Codeword, I like his trainer, J. Terranova, who I've mentioned before on the blog. The horse never ran well on anything but firm turf, except once two years ago at Belmont, where he ran second, but every race since he's done nothing, not even running well against lesser. The worst part was I thought to myself "why aren't they scratching this horse". Well today he took to the bog like a duck to water. Hmmm, I'd rather get beat by a 4-5 shot. Mike A

Posted by: Mike A on November 21, 2009 at 03:46 PM

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Van Gogh,

After the results of the 7th at CD....now you know why I never bet maiden races unless they are on the turf at a distance. Rendition did run well for 4th. I'd look for her next out on the cutback to 7f, it's one of Rusty Arnolds best moves. Mike A

Posted by: Mike A on November 21, 2009 at 03:50 PM

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Mike A/Keith L/Blackstone:

Just in case I don't have time later...these are the races I am looking at tomorrow:

AQU:-3/7/8
CD: 6/8/9
Hol: 5/7/8/9

I will post about these after handicapping tonight and tomorrow morning.

Posted by: Mickey on November 21, 2009 at 04:03 PM

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Back in it all...

Computer trouble at my home. Nothing worse than that for me.

Trying to catch up with the game. Had some winners yesterday. Chantal kicked home a longshot once again at Woodbine. I should have jumped in the car, but decided to stay home with the girls. Time with them was more important.

Annie

Be careful with that Showvivor game. It will dive you crazy!!!

It will consume all of your time and you will go back and forth over 25 times on your selection. It is not worth the aggrevation. Look at the 5th race at Aqueduct today. The 2B went off at 3/5 and was pulled up and vanned off. Only six horses went to the gate. If that race was in your Showvivor, it would have knocked out 80% of the players. Your on pins and needles all day long.

I hope that you can grind it out and make it to the end.

Best to you from me.

Hope to get in some action at Hollywood. Missed Churchill.

Whackymacky Out!!!

Posted by: Whackymacky on November 21, 2009 at 04:50 PM

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Back home now to watch the rest of these.

The only bets I made outside of California were a win bet on Custom for Carlos at Aqueduct and I had to go with the horse I have won with before, You Go West Girl at CD. Didn't mention her because so many were not liking her. I just boxed her with the M/L fav. Acoma and was surprisingly well rewarded.

At HOL I played my alternate Show Me The Money horse, That Ol'BlackMagic to win. Now I wish I had taken him in the contest. The suspense would be over. :(

Left the track then, but I still have a box on Oceanographer and Do What You Dare in the 5th and a box on American Lion and Indian Firewater in the 8th. And, of course, I would like to see Indian Firewater win. :)

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 05:07 PM

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Sorry, that was Custom for Carlos at CD. It was Gone Astray I was going to bet at Aqueduct, but decided against it.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 05:18 PM

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Blackstone, Mickey,and all,

Please feel free to use the chat room at my site whenever you like if it is easier for you to discuss your handicapping live rather than exchanging email. Just clean up and turn off the lights when you're done, lol. http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/

Annie,
Great OLA!

Posted by: Laura on November 21, 2009 at 05:21 PM

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That's it it's official, After having Acoma and even throwing in You Go West Girl for second, I keyed on Leamington and collected nothing. She ran about as well as Tiz Fiz who I guess did run one too may races in a span of 6 weeks. Long Aproach who I thought was getting a leg up for Florida ran better than my top three selections. I definately need to concentrate on the move and leave the horses alone for awhile. When you pick three and none are even in the money, it's time for a break. Mike A

Posted by: Mike A on November 21, 2009 at 05:23 PM

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Ohh, Classy Attraction in the 4th broke the Uncle Steve OLA streak.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 05:31 PM

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Can anyone tell me what "Add Adjunct" means? This was a change attached to You Go West Girl in the Cardinal today.

Posted by: jetonka on November 21, 2009 at 06:00 PM

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WhackyMacky,

Boy, you're right there. It's very nerve-racking. Is that how you got your nickname? :)

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 06:19 PM

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John C,

Too bad about Handsome John's 4th. But, I'm sure he looked very good doing it. :)

Cute is just what women call handsome guys. Not emasculating at all. Now if a guy were to call you cute, that might be something else again. :)

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 06:21 PM

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Mike A,

Hopefully you didn't see the post about you know who. What was he looking for? The hiway?
:)

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 06:23 PM

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Tencent,

Well, A Clever Ten got second. That's pretty good.

I wonder if Slew got Big Slew? Although I don't know if he likes Borel. :)

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 06:27 PM

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Blackstone, Mike A, Mckey, Keith L;

No, I did not hit the Pick 4 at Churchill today, because I foolishly singled Tizfiz in the 9th race. I thought long and hard about adding Acoma, but didn’t because of my supreme confidence in Tizfiz. The cost associated with adding her (she was my second choice) was nominal. Bonehead decision of the month. That cost me. And wasting that 19/1 shot (#13 Flavor) in the 10th is so unfortunate.

We all do it. I know why I do it, but it doesn’t make me feel any better. You would think that I would learn. Bah!

Posted by: Van Savant on November 21, 2009 at 06:43 PM

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Spot Play...

Hollywood

Race 8

15 Minutes to post

#5 Macias

$200 WP

$20 DD #5 W / 5,8,10,11,16

Best of luck to all

Whackymacky Out !!!

Posted by: Whackymacky on November 21, 2009 at 06:56 PM

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OK, the suspense is over for good. Big sigh of relief. I really didn't expect Gomez to go out with Macias. (Bonehead). Now see, if I had stuck with my desire to get it over with as early as possible, I would have taken my second choice That Ol'BlackMagic in the 2nd race and all would be well.

Van Savant,

Speaking of bonehead decisions. American Lion was touted all over the country. But, did I take him. Nooo, I had to be clever and go against the grain. Of course, who knew Gomez would give a bonehead ride. :)

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 07:22 PM

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One more comment, and then I will put it behind me.

I don't think Baffert will be too happy about that ride either. I don't think he intended for both of his horses to be out there battling for the lead.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 07:35 PM

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Mike A,

I can completely sympathize with that sentiment after watching Heaven's Grace practically spectate the race. Thankfully I used Jackpot Joanie as a safety and Flavor ran a terrific race to complete a nice pick 4 for me. I'll be watching for Rendition's next start though, thanks for the tip.

Posted by: TheVanGogh on November 21, 2009 at 07:47 PM

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Annie

..check your E-mail...Blue Thong stuff.....

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on November 21, 2009 at 07:54 PM

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Mickey.."we hardly ever blog about Philadelphia or Laurel"

Well, if you see something you like...post it.
I'm sure others would be glad to exchange notes on your thoughts, and look at it.
Especially if you feel strongly about a horse, or it's race conditions. Hey, a tip or suggestion is a good thing!
There are so many tracks to choose, so Why NOT, some of the smaller ones.
Besides, there are many who read (or lurk)...and THEY may like to talk about some of the other tracks....hmmmm?

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on November 21, 2009 at 08:09 PM

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CD Feature
Even though You Go West Girl ran 2nd, I enjoyed handicapping, betting, and watching the race. Terrific stuff! We all knew Acoma was best going in (on one of her good days), and she was certainly best, despite much trouble, going out. Poor bet construction cost me dearly today (me too Van Savant)-despite two wins and a 2nd in the five races I played (all WP bets), I still lost almost one-third of my bankroll today. Everything of mine, doubles, exactas, P3's, centered on You Go West winning, not coming in second. 100% my fault. Enjoyed the day anyway. Thanks to all of you for your thoughts and comments.
Annie-doesn't this game drive you crazy sometimes (The Contest)? You almost did it. I'm sure glad you cashed the CD exacta-a good one! As for me, Carla Gaines did pay me back today for boucing me out of the Contest last week-Victory Camp won in a romp at Holly (WP on him also). I felt confident when in the last sixty seconds before the race his odds dropped suddenly down to 5 to 1 (M/L was 8 to 1). Whoosh!
Laura-Thank you very much for the offer of the Chat room-great idea. I'll see what the others say/think. That's very nice of you, and clever. One question-is the room heated?
Tomorrow's a big family day for me so I'm just going to play three races at Woodbine-trying to get my feet wet there. Two on Terry Jordan, whomever he is (but he's 40 for 90-gulp), and one "Chantal". Sorry if I foul up the odds, Whacky.
Good luck to all of you tomorrow.

Posted by: blackstone on November 21, 2009 at 08:14 PM

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Hi,
The Raise a Native bloodline need to be purged from American racing.
Thanks

Posted by: ilovemesomeme on November 21, 2009 at 08:15 PM

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Jetonka,

I believe that is an adjunct (addition) to lasix. Perfectly legal, I guess.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 08:20 PM

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Laura
Forgot to ask-roughly how long do your Friday night chats last? I am trying to negotiate using the PC that night-who knows, I might win the negotiaion for a change. Even though I technically own the machine, we "share"-which means I come in last. Of course, it might help if I had some backbone.

Mickey, Mike A, all
My email, if the Chat Room won't work, is: fj106@aol.com. And Mickey, glad you're such a fan of Sunday Silence-me too.

Posted by: blackstone on November 21, 2009 at 08:31 PM

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Annie

Sorry for the beat in the 8th. It was a poor decision for GoGo to chase my Macias. Why do it? Baffert wasn't a happy camper after that. You will move on to bigger and better thing's.

I got my nickname for the way I play. It started about 15 years ago in Vegas with the boys. I was on a Roulette table and played a $200 bet on black for 6 consecutive rolls. The parlay came back $12,800. It was on a single zero table in the high rollers room at Caesars Palace. From that night on, they called me Whackymacky. My nickname from Junior High was Macky. True Story.

Let's all get back on track for Sunday.

Mike A

Don't get down. You were high as a kite last week. Keep your chin up. You can still pick them. My Dad would say, turn the page, tomorrow is another day.

Whackymacky Out!!!

Posted by: Whackymacky on November 21, 2009 at 08:43 PM

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Oh no, I certainly didn't wish anything bad on Garrett Gomez. I hope he's OK.

And that poor filly. I feel bad now for saying anything.

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 21, 2009 at 09:06 PM

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DATE RACE PGM HORSE
Nov 21 8 04 AMERICAN LION
Nov 20 3 05 REBA IS TOPS
Nov 19 1 06 QUARTER GIVEN
Nov 18 2 03 HOT DAMON
Nov 15 3 04 SMOOTH PERFORMER

Posted by: jim tully on November 21, 2009 at 10:16 PM

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Annie:

It musst have been the lingering thrill of the last anticipation episode that put you into the 8th at Hollywood. Too bad, but I know what you mean when you say "relief"! And, Baffert's Machias was the better sprinter over Indian Firewater (by a nose)...alss, they wore each other down, as you noted.

But, you had a win or two it looks like for the day. I pulled the proverbial doughnut, with El Brujo hung out by Husbands wide all the way, and no kick in the stretch either.

Better luck tomorrow....you can forget about "sure thing" show horses, and go back to picking longshot winners and Pik 4s.

Posted by: Keith L. on November 21, 2009 at 10:21 PM

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Three young women were driving to Hollywood Race Track, a brunette, a redhead, and a blonde, and all were laughing and texting friends, and talking about the good looking California men they would meet trackside. However, with all the laughter (or maybe it was the cheap pefume... a gift by last month's boyfriend), the blonde, who was driving, hd tears in her eyes that clouded her vision, and they smacked into the back of a horse van. The accident report said that the triple fatality was caused by excessive speed, by St. Peter knew better.

When they arrived at the Gates of Heaven, St. Peter welcomed them, and then gave them a stern warning..."We have one rule around here, and that is not to step on the ducks."
The three women all looked about them, and sure enough, Heaven's floor was covered with ducks. It didn't take long before the brunette, however, stepped on a duck.
Right away, here came St. Peter leading a doltish looking fellow with perpetual frown lines (and who must have been a Pig Farmer in his life, by the odor that hung around him), and St. Peter linked a chain fastened to the wrist of this fellow to the brunettes arm, and announced: "Your punishment for stepping on a duck is to be chained to this stupid man for all eternity".
Well, it wasn't very long, just hours later that the redhead stepped on a duck.
Here came St. Peter immediately, leading a freakishly muscular fellow who looked (and smelled) like he had worked in a Foundry. His brow was expansive, but wrinkled a perpetual scowl, and St. Peter immediately chained the man to the redhead, and pronounced the same sentence, saying she would be linked to this "doltish man" for all eternity as punishment.

For some weeks, the blonde was oh so careful where she put her feet. She wasn't going to have the same fate befall her as had her girlfriends. But one day, here came St. Peter leading a tall, handsome, very rich and stylish gentleman of such obvious good breeding, and within minutes the swooning blonde young woman was chained to him wrist to wrist.
"Oh my", the blonde young woman exclaimed, "is this my reward for having been so careful... to be chained to you for eternity?" "Whatever did I do to deserve you?" she giggled.
Wiping away a tear, the handsome fellow muttered: "I don't know what you did, but I stepped on a duck!"

Posted by: Keith L. on November 21, 2009 at 10:48 PM

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Van Savant
Just re-read all the posts-I feel badly about your Pick4-I did the same thing, but smaller impact because mine were doubles and exactas. I would have missed the triple anyway as I missed the AE, Flavor, although I did give him some thought as well. Shoot. But, tomorrow's a new day. More opportunities!

Posted by: blackstone on November 21, 2009 at 11:03 PM

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Keith L

...Ssshuushh! Hide that blonde story from Annie...How could you??!!

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on November 22, 2009 at 12:14 AM

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blackstone

...from past experiences' in Laura's chat room, you can stay as long as you like.
She does a great job of moderating and moving along the "races/discussions" of that night...But (depending on the "card") it is easy to spend 1 or 2 hours in there.
(..Okay disclaimer...there have been times that 'many' hours have been spent in the chat room....)
Since I am on the West Coast...I can show up to say Hello, handicap a couple races..then go make dinner & return later to see Formblog friends still hanging out and taking 'horses'.
BTW, the more the merrier!..It's (Laura has mentioned) like herding cats at times!!

So settle in with your favorite libation, I think you will enjoy it!

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on November 22, 2009 at 12:32 AM

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Annie

..Wow, Oh, that fall looked bad...hope horse & rider came out okay.
I agree, So Sad to see that happen..

BTW...Go back & check your e-mail when you can.

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on November 22, 2009 at 12:45 AM

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Annie,
You know me better, I rarely bet a namesake horse unless I like them. That only works when I don't bet them.

Whacky,

Just getting out a bit of frustration. Especially after listening to Blackstone and Captain Bodgit, it was the latters words, "Don't count out You Go West Girl" putting her second, along with Acoma, only to see Leamington just spit the bit. When a race is run according to plan and the time comes for "OK Girl take em" and the girl doesn't move as expected.....you wish you were there to help push.

Then I was frustrated, so I passed on the 8th at AQU. which I would have had cold, Haynesfield and Bad Action.

Add to the fact that when Van Savant and Van Gogh ( related??) both had Flavor, then realizing the horse got in, I went back to give him a look. I just didn't see it, so he wins.

I went to a friends and hung out with him at the stable. We went for a ride, he has Morgans and QH's. I love riding Morgans, great horses. After we took care of the horses and put them in their stalls, we had dinner.I stopped at Blockbuster on my way home and rented Seabiscuit. Watched the race sequences over and over....never can get enough of that stuff.

I feel much better, sort of recharged. Don't know what I'm going to do tomorrow, may wait for next weekend, I wanted to start packing a bit, though it is early yet. I just figure there's alot on my mind and I'm pushing a bit, I noticed it last week and this week confirms it. Two Longshots beat me today and I didn't see it coming, that's a concern. Just a slight regrouping I think. Plus I have to start making the rounds, folks I promised I'd see before I left, some will be hard to say goodbye to I reckon.

Anyway....thanks, I know I had a real good run for a couple of weeks, and actually hit them pretty good from Travers day to last weekend, so I'm ok, just need to take care of business. There's one person, my ex girlfriends son that will be particularly hard to say goodbye too. He's 13, we spent alot of time together, still do. His mom told me he was angry with her for not staying with me, kids....she called yesterday, after she dropped him off for his final soccer game of the year, she said he looked at her and said " I really like Mike, I want to be like him when I grow up". She said it was too sweet not to share, he really respects you. I told her " Well I guess all I have to do is find a woman with the mentality of a 13 year old boy and I'll be set". The boy's father is a doctor....it really choked me up a bit. Never had a son, two wonderful girls though... Life's sure funny sometimes. Mike A

Posted by: Mike A on November 22, 2009 at 01:01 AM

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Annie,

Sorry about the loss at HOL. but good things come from bad I always say. Machias and Indian Firewater are recodnized as Bafferts second string. Machias's last win was an all out effort against some suspect horses. So remember for the future, even though Hollywood has a slight speed bias, which is why those 2 Baffert horses were fighting it out probably, they still didn't win. American Lion overcame all that and did. It took him along time to get in gear, but I think it bodes well for him all things considered. Though it doesn't bode well for the other two.

So what can that mean for you fair maiden of the north country? There's a big race coming up with Our Minesweeper, who will probably be bet heavy, Machias beat him last out, look to beat him, in fact I would go as far as to say eliminate anyone Machias beat in his last out, save maybe the horse who ran second, but I'd look long and hard at who he's running against. Mike A

Posted by: Mike A on November 22, 2009 at 09:38 AM

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Annie,

One more thing, I watched Seabiscuit last night, read the book when it came out also. There is a scene in the movie where Seabiscuit's trainer is telling C S Howard to stop parading the horse around, he needs to work with him. They'll never know if he can be a great horse otherwise. C S Howard takes exception to this and says "He is a great horse already, he's won six stakes in a row", to which the trainer replies " Against Who"? It is very important to always measure a horses competition and what they do in those races. American Lion wasn't really beating much yesterday, but he did overcome adversity to do it. He's a horse to watch in the future. The others I'll try to beat everytime, or at least when it's reasonable to do so. Remember Zensational was the fastest horse to ever look through a bridle according to Baffert and his loyal following. He was my first toss, he'd never run against horses like the ones in the BC sprint before and ended up getting the best look at the photo.

So be of good cheer, because while you may have caught some winners because of the front running bias at HOL. there were plenty of horses who ran sneaky good against it, and they are the long prices of tomorrow. Mike A

Posted by: Mike A on November 22, 2009 at 10:02 AM

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I feel so sorry for the connections of Bonnie Brown Eyes. One second your watching your horse draw away in the stretch for a win. The next second you're watching your horse dead on the track. Why do I love horse racing when it makes me so sad/angry sometimes?

Posted by: Captain Bodgit on November 22, 2009 at 10:56 AM

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Sr Vegas:

I understand what you mean (about smaller tracks and numerous opportunities)..but I was just stating about how in the $7 edition...not to give preference of CD over those 2 I thought was ridiculous! (just look at the handle and I am sure it is a no brainer)

Laura:

Thanks for the invite...I'll try it...anything special to set up?

Blackstone:

I'll try your e-mail later.

I was home until about 5 but the blog didn't update from 1 ish to much later. (Yes I know Dan has a life...LOL)..that is why I gave out the e-mail...

Mike A:

nice ESP on Talk Therapy...LOL...sorry about steering you to Leamington..I actually changed my bet to Last Approach at the last second..but it didn't matter as you see. I did catch the exacta on the 10th at CD..but for small as I boxed the 3 horses I wrote about..and really "lucked" into it.

Posted by: Mickey on November 22, 2009 at 11:07 AM

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Not all the promising two year olds have been winners of stakes races this year. Take today's 3rd Race Maiden Special Weight at Hollywood for example, an 8.5 F affair which catches a Grade 1 stakes winner chasing young colt Make Music For Me, with Mike Smith up. But, an intersting less experienced runner in here is Sadler's Looking for Candy, a Candy Ride colt out of a Seeking the Gold mare who may just take to the route....had a 1 mile work 6 days ago, and just may be primed for an upset to the fav who hasn't been able to seal the deal, although facing better. The winner of this affair is expected to go in the CashCall on December 19th...that field is still in the making.

Posted by: Keith L. on November 22, 2009 at 11:22 AM

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Annie,
Yes my namesake (well, at least the "John" part) didn't get the job done this time- too much primping and preening in his narcissism mirror.

Thanks for the decoding of the distaff meaning of "cute".

LOL- if a guy calls me cute, I just tell him that, like Curlin, I wouldn't really enjoy a "surface change" at this stage of the game :)
(no offense to men of that persuasion).

Posted by: John C. on November 22, 2009 at 01:06 PM

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Woodbine Plays

Race 1

#3 $100 WP

Race 2

#2 $100 WP

Race 4

#8 $400 Win

Race 6

#4 $100 WP

Race 7

#2 #100 WP

Race 8

#2 $100 WP

Race 9

#3 $100 WP

Race 10

#8 $100 WP

Chantal Sutherland has these mounts and they will pay big numbers today. I think that she will have 4 winners.

LOL to all.

Whackymacky Out !!!

Posted by: Whackymacky on November 22, 2009 at 01:08 PM

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Annie,

I did what any person who knows me well enough did: Bet it to place and went all/a clever ten in the exacta. :-)

Everybody,
I was at the sixteenth pole at Hollywood Park when the 8 broke down right in front of me. It was ugly. The sound of Garrett BOUNCING was sickening. The filly died on impact. Garrett looked like he got hurt really bad, but I'm glad he's not seriously injured.

tencentcielo

Posted by: tencentcielo on November 22, 2009 at 01:16 PM

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Aqueduct

Race 3

$10 Pick 3

1,2,3 / 1,3,6 / 10,11

= $180

Race 3

#3 Law Enforcement

$150 WP

Playing today

LOL to all

Whackymacky Out !!!

Posted by: Whackymacky on November 22, 2009 at 01:17 PM

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Mike A,
The reason that Zensational lost the BC Sprint is that he wasn't allowed to do his thing (for the FIRST time!). He normally runs in front so when he was strangled into submission in a race that requires little to no rating, he gave up/used most of his energy fighting instead of racing.
I could be wrong of course but, thanks to Zensational's unnecessary and counter-productive retirement, I'll never have the empirical evidence to support my opinion. Sad.

A more general point can be made that a horse can be deemed a "super-horse" even if s/he beats weak competition: s/he "just" needs to dominate them and the clock in an unprecedented manner (I'm thinking of recent filly and mare who did just that, of course).
Furthermore, a real super-horse makes most of the competition seem weak, so it's harder to gauge these competitors unless they lose to other merely "good" horses.

Posted by: John C. on November 22, 2009 at 01:18 PM

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Blackstone,
Generally the handicapping lasts around three hours depending on the number of races and horses involved, etc. We review each horse and I add a pro/con comment to let everyone discuss, then we give our selections/consensus at the end of the race. If someone is short for time and wants to review a particular race, I’m happy to accommodate them and switch the order. If you need PP’s for the races, just email me (address at website) and let me know. Sorry, the chat room isn’t heated, but it is in a tropical part of Florida – does that help? ;-)

Mickey,
The chat room is in Java, but 99% of all computers have this program, so it shouldn’t be an issue. Just go to the chat room and sign in. If you have difficulty, clear out your cookies and try again.

I’ll have the races we’ll review this Friday posted on the website in the next day or two, but no later than Wednesday. If anyone has a special request to handicap a certain race, please let me know.

Posted by: Laura on November 22, 2009 at 01:35 PM

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S R Vegas
Thank you for the poop on the Chat Room. If I can get there, I will.

Bet Woodbine as I said I would, but won't be around for a few hours so I'll have to wait to find out. Also bet a couple of Lloyd Mason's at GG-probably a dat late with him though. Finally, took a flyer on Conga Belle in the 4th at Aqueduct-trained by Rodriguez (AKA Dutrow). Dutrow deadly on 1sters.

Good luck to all today.

Posted by: blackstone on November 22, 2009 at 01:54 PM

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Dan, formbloggers, does anyone know who is picking up Garrett Gomez' mount on SetSuko in the 3rd at Hollywood today? I like this one a lot but Vitcor has ridden him all 3 starts until today...hopefully he can pick up the mount.

Dan, are there PPs created for ancestor horses like Eclipse? Is there a written record describing the races run? If so I'd like to see how they stack up against the career PPs for Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta regarding distances raced, surfaces, etc.

Posted by: wilson on November 22, 2009 at 01:55 PM

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SR Vegas

I am at Laura's site now (chat room) pretty easy to get on..but no one is there.

Keith L....funny joke from above.

In the 6th at CD..I can say I like #4 Indianapolis...but he will get crushed in the wagering.

in the 8th:..#7 Forest Warfare (IMO) has a lot going for him....if he isn't bet down under 3-1..looks like a solid play due to the fact it appears he is "primed" for this race..first back off a small layoff...the works are excellent.

9th race is a tough play at a 1 1/2...depending on the odds..might make a play with #6 Classic Bridges..as he is ever so slightly getting better and better every race...(throw in the fact that Goncalves is underrated.) and it only helps the price.

Posted by: Mickey on November 22, 2009 at 02:39 PM

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Mickey,

Don't apologize for Leamington, I liked her on my own. You will find in the long run and after meeting me, which I reckon will happen soon enough, that The God of horse racing himself, could never talk me off or make me play a horse, I like or don't respectively. I'll neve blame anyone for a loss but myself. Besides, If I won them all it would get boring. Mike A

Posted by: Mike A on November 22, 2009 at 03:03 PM

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To all Hollywood players..

No Go Go today. Off all mounts!!!

Whackymacky Out!!!

Posted by: Whackymacky on November 22, 2009 at 03:09 PM

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SR Vegas

8th at Aqueduct

#9 Mr Vegas

Winner paid $19.20

I hope that you were up.

Best wishes.

Whackymacky Out!!!

Posted by: Whackymacky on November 22, 2009 at 03:54 PM

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Mr. Vegas got it done today, guy! Paid $19.20 to win. I figured it was probably just a surface issue. Unfortunately, the turf was listed as soft again today, but the sun was out today (and yesterday as well, i believe). So it was likely a very different surface than what he ran on last time. I was still very concerned about it, but @ 8/1 it's hard not to give him the benefit of the doubt. I never doubted his talent for a second...he can run.

Posted by: DiscreetPicks on November 22, 2009 at 04:19 PM

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Wilson,

Joel Rosario has Setsuko.

Posted by: Steve T. on November 22, 2009 at 04:25 PM

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Hollywood Update

Bridge Jumpers!!!!!!

Race 3

#4 Make Music For Me

W- $67,932
P- $17,063
S- $35,765

Show pool total =$49,050

Results=

6 $24.60 $8.40 $11.00
2 $5.00 $8.80
1 $5.60
1A $5.60

Small payoffs. Bad ride by Smith. Caught behind a wall of horse's.

Bet $40 to show on the 1,2,3,5,6,7.

Whackymacky Out!!!

Posted by: Whackymacky on November 22, 2009 at 04:46 PM

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John C,

I see your point, but when it comes to Zensational, he never faced horses of that caliber before. If he was that good he would have shown it regardless of the competition. He broke a step slow, he wasn't left at the gate. He had every opportunity to get the lead, or at least fight for it. Do you honestly believe the fact he didn't get the lead was the cause of his losing?? Don't kid yourself, he just wasn't good enough, the quick retiring party after he ran should tell you something. He's worth something now, because folks like yourself will believe it was poor racing luck. If they don't run again who'll be the wiser, especially since baffert says he's the fastest thing since pegasus. They surely know that no one will duck him now, and he'll lose again and he won't be worth so much anymore. Never forget, B. Baffert isn't just a decent trainer, but he's a better PR man. I'm glad they retired him, it will save folks from betting their hard earned money on him in the future. Putting Dancing Silks on top in my picks should tell you what I thought of Zensational.

Second, If you're alluding to Zenyatta's win in the Classic, you haven't watched enough horse races. Trust me, you won't see another like her for quit awhile, unless we're lucky. Mike A

Posted by: Mike A on November 22, 2009 at 05:01 PM

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Annie!

YEA!...The closest to my 'namesake horse' did it today!

MR Vegas...SR Vegas..hmmmm?

http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseDisplay.do?track=AQU&country=USA&raceDate=20091122&raceNo=7
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Tencent..

How awful to see in person.
It always breaks my heart.

----------------------------
Mickey

..Glad you can get into Laura's site with no problems..
When she has a scheduled chat, it's pretty loaded with formbloggers.
Hope you can check in next Friday. I won't (Bummer!!)
I will be on the road to CA for Thanksgiving Holiday with the families.
But, Have fun!!

-------------------------

Uncle Steve

...thru the first 6 races at Hollywood...I see your selections are finishing in the $$...with a couple nice double digit winners!
Laura, thanks for putting up Uncle Steve's selections on your site!

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on November 22, 2009 at 06:25 PM

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Looking at Candy ran his race, but couldn't quite catch the wire to wire horse running with the speed bias here. I think Sadler would do well by this late comer to keep him in MSW's till the deal is done, get an Allowance run or two into him, and worry about a Stakes Schedule somewhere around March or April, at the earliest. He is promising material for a 3 yo campaign.

Barkley Tagg has done a great job with the Victory Gallop colt Groomed for Victory, but he has been very conservatively spotted, and I would like to see him hit the road a couple of times, looking to go 7 to 9 Furlongs, maybe even on synthetics if it should offer some better competition and purses.

John C:

You are right about the ride Zensational got in the BC Sprint, and I wonder if that was Espinoza acting on his own or under instructions. Baffert seemed to want to give the impression at least that his colt would be winging it from the get-go, but that isn't what happened.
I'm wondering if it was just a last minute decision when they realized the speed bias had been manipulated out of the track in deference to the chances of a certain horse in the big one? As you say, by retirement, we will never know, but a career as a 4 yo sprinter wasn't going to get him any richer stud fees than what he is capable of now, and that was the probable decision maker.

Posted by: Keith L. on November 22, 2009 at 06:26 PM

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John C

..I'll agree with you that Zensational never had a chance to run "his" race.
Did the inside post position compromise his style a bit ( since he had a tendancy to get off a step slow) I think so, Therefore he never was up front where he likes it.
I'm also bummed he was retired so soon. I think he would have developed into a very good sprinter, if given some more time to grow up.
Oh well...sigh.

Oh BTW...I'll concur with Annie...being called cute IS a good thing.

SR Vegas

Posted by: SR Vegas on November 22, 2009 at 06:38 PM

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Calling Annie....

Check your email, important message for you!

Katieattherail

Posted by: Katieattherail on November 22, 2009 at 06:41 PM

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Dan,

Can you look at the 5th race
at Pilly Park on the 22nd.
How can the 9th place horse
at 68-1 collect $12,000 dollars
and the 1st place collect $5,600.00?

Michael H.

Posted by: Michael H. on November 22, 2009 at 06:50 PM

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OK, I was gone all day, came home and watched the replay of MAKE MUSIC FOR ME's race, and of course I saw that it wouldn't have made abit of difference who I picked for yesterday's Show Me The Money since I was going to use him today.

And Mike Smith officially wrenched away the Bonehead Award from Garrett Gomez. Unbelievable! Even the announcer was telling him he would have to go three wide or hope to get through inside. Three wide! You can't go three wide if you're on the best horse? Geez!

Thank goodness I took a kind of last minute excursion today. It would not have been pretty if I had made the bets I was thinking of today.

Regarding yesterday's debacle, I can hear all of you saying, "Why didn't she just take American Lion?" Or maybe that's myself I am hearing. LOL

Anyway, my reasoning was that either AL or Indian whatshisname were logical to finish at least in the top three, UNLESS AL just didn't like cushion track since he had never set hoof on it. Now we know he likes Poly and Cushion Track and he has a superior ProRide sire and both grandsires, so if their plan is to point him for the SA Derby next year, all should be good. Of course, we still won't know if he can run on dirt if he makes the KY Derby. However, he will go in the Magic Kleenex Box, so someone will get to find out. :)

Hope everyone had a good day!

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 22, 2009 at 08:11 PM

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Mike A,

Then I suppose you didn't bet MICHAEL'S ROSE today with Rosario up. Paid a nice $11.80. :)

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 22, 2009 at 08:16 PM

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SR Vegas,

Congratulations on Mr. Vegas getting one. Wow, big price too. I imagine he heard that you were feeling abit left out, and made up his mind to win one for you. :)

Annie

Posted by: Annie on November 22, 2009 at 08:19 PM

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How can the 9th place horse
at 68-1 collect $12,000 dollars
and the 1st place collect $5,600.00?

only PA bred in the race?

if so, nice placement by trainer!

Posted by: p ensign on November 22, 2009 at 09:07 PM

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then again, looking at chart, that one looks like it's from TX and that there might have been 4 PA breds...

misprint?

Posted by: p ensign on November 22, 2009 at 09:10 PM

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